论文外文文献翻译3000字左右
- 1、下载文档前请自行甄别文档内容的完整性,平台不提供额外的编辑、内容补充、找答案等附加服务。
- 2、"仅部分预览"的文档,不可在线预览部分如存在完整性等问题,可反馈申请退款(可完整预览的文档不适用该条件!)。
- 3、如文档侵犯您的权益,请联系客服反馈,我们会尽快为您处理(人工客服工作时间:9:00-18:30)。
南京航空航天大学金城学院
毕业设计(论文)外文文献翻译
系部经济系
专业国际经济与贸易
学生姓名陈雅琼学号2011051115
指导教师邓晶职称副教授
2015年5月
Economic policy,tourism trade and productive diversification
(Excerpt)
Iza Lejárraga,Peter Walkenhorst
The broad lesson that can be inferred from the analysis is that promoting tourism linkages with the productive capabilities of a host country is a multi-faceted approach influenced by a variety of country conditions.Among these,fixed or semi-fixed factors of production,such as land,labor,or capital,seem to have a relatively minor influence.Within the domain of natural endowments,only agricultural capital emerged as significant.This is a result that corresponds to expectations,given that foods and beverages are the primary source of demand in the tourism economy.Hence,investments in agricultural technology may foment linkages with the tourism market.It is also worth mentioning that for significant backward linkages to emerge with local agriculture,a larger scale of tourism may be important. According to the regression results,a strong tourism–agriculture nexus will not necessarily develop at a small scale of tourism demand.
It appears that variables related to the entrepreneurial capital of the host economy are of notable explanatory significance.The human development index(HDI), which is used to measure a country's general level of development,is significantly and positively associated with tourism linkages.One plausible explanation for this is that international tourists,who often originate in high-income countries,may feel more comfortable and thus be inclined to consume more in a host country that has a life-style to which they can relate easily.Moreover,it is important to remember that the HDI also captures the relative achievements of countries in the level of health and education of the population.Therefore,a higher HDI reflects a healthier and more educated workforce,and thus,the quality of local entrepreneurship.Related to this point,it is important to underscore that the level of participation of women in the host economy also has a significantly positive effect on linkages.In sum, enhancing local entrepreneurial capital may expand the linkages between tourism and other sectors of the host country.
Formal institutions and their regulatory control of the market,proxied by the size of the government and price controls,were not found to have significant effects on linkages formation.Despite the importance of democratic governance,this was not identified as a key determinant either.On the other hand,the significance of informal institutions accords with the clustering dynamics inherent in tourism,in which linkages are formed on the basis of self-enforcing“relations-based”governance.Also,informal structures cost less than formal,rules-driven institutional frameworks for entrepreneurship.Therefore,highly formalized regulations can deter the spontaneous and cost-driven coordination among potential local suppliers and the potential buyers of the tourism economy.
One type of formal institutions that does matter is policing and vigilance.As would be expected,the results show that countries with higher incidence of violence or crime are significantly associated with lower levels of tourism linkages.Indeed, the coordination of providers in tourism clusters depends fundamentally on trust among local entrepreneurs and trust can hardly flourish in an environment characterized by social conflict.Equally important,the perception of violence on the part of tourists and hotels will dissuade tourists from venturing beyond the safe boundaries of the“enclave”hotel resort.Finally,hotel managers and other foreign investors in the tourism economy will be less inclined to maintain productive relations with the host economy in the absence of predictability and stability. Therefore,investments in institutions that maintain safety and a perception of safety,in the host economy appear critical for spawning coordination.
While all country domains may be playing a role in fostering or hindering linkages, the business environment seems to exert an overriding influence on linkages.After controlling for a country's natural endowments,level of development,and institutional maturity,the business environment on its own explains almost20%of cross-country variations in linkages.In particular,the level of corporate taxes in the host economy is associated with the most significant adverse effect on the formation of linkages,in conformity with the lower-cost motivation underlying tourism-led linkage creation.Also,a widespread usage of internet is also
significantly associated with a positive effect in the ability of suppliers to orchestrate coordination in tourism linkages.
Moreover,the results suggest that there could be a role for government in improving trade facilitation and reducing transportation costs.Also,maintaining an open trade regime seems to be critical for the emergence of linkages.This underscores the importance of not protecting inefficient economic activities and opening potential products for tourism demand to competition.Although trade barriers may indeed serve to prod investors in the tourism economy to procure domestic goods, they will also hinder the competitiveness of local producers.Shielded from imports, local producers will not have the incentives to meet the international quality standards of the products needed by the tourism economy.Yet,quality expectations, possibly more so than costs,will likely inform the procurement decisions of the tourism economy.
Concerning the relative magnitude of the effects of the different domains on linkages,the business environment and trade regulations stand out.The independent contributions of these domains,that is their ability to explain variations in the dependent variable when no controls for other domains are applied,amount to53%and 43%,respectively.The level-of-development domain follows with25%explanatory power,while the domains covering institutions and endowments provide an independent contribution of23%each.
The implications of the analysis should be considered in light of its limitations. Causal direction cannot be fully substantiated,because we use a cross-sectional approach due to data limitations.In the absence of time-series for the variables at hand,it is not possible to test for causation.While the explanatory variables concerning natural endowments are exogenous,some of the other explanatory variables could potentially be subject to reverse causality.That said,there do not seem to be a priori strong conceptual reasons that would lead us to believe that the degree of tourism linkages critically affects trade policy,the quality of institutions, and other variables of our model.
Moreover,the risk of encountering problems of reverse causality is mitigated by the observation that several longitudinal studies have established a causal relationship that runs from higher levels of economic development Eugenio-Martin et al.(2008)or a better business environment(Barrowclough,2007and Selvanathan et al.,2009)to the development of the tourism sector,rather than the other way around.
Finally,the construction of the dependent variable as a ratio of indirect to direct tourism expenditure makes the reverse causality hypothesis less compelling. While it might be expected that an expansion of the tourism sector that increases total revenues and employment opportunities might have an impact on the explanatory variables,it is less evident that a change in the composition of tourism revenues, as implied by a change in the LINK variable,would have such an effect.That said, the confidence in our findings would clearly be further enhanced,if supported by results from future studies based on longitudinal designs.
The scientific environmental ethics plays a key role in the recognition of the human—environment interactions.Modern environmental ethics is the philosophical rethinking of modern human race environmental behavior.The development of environmental ethics theory as well as its application in reality.determines the viewpoints of environmental ethics.Sustainable development implies harmony on human-environment interactions and intergeneration responsibility,with emphasis on a harmonious relationship among population,resources,environment and development,so as to lay a sustainable and healthy foundation of resources and environment for future generations.The harmonious society construction in China that is raised by the Chinese central government should be covered by environmental ethics.The connotation of open environmental ethics includes a respect for nature.care for the individual human race.and respect for the development of future generations,which means giving consideration to natural values.individual and human race benefits and welfare across generations.The role of environmental ethics in regional development consists of cognition,criticism,education,inspiration,adjusting,legislation and promoting environmental regulations.The major problems in regional development are extensive resource exploration,fast population growth irrational,industrial
structure.Unfair welfare distribution and the twofold effects of science and technology development.The formulation of environmental ethics that aims at regional sustainable development,can not only harmonize the relationship of population,resource,environment and economic development,but also guide behavior selection,push social and political system transformation.strengthen the legal system,and raise environmental awareness of the public.
Human races face severe global challenges in resources,environment,population and poverty.To solve these problems science and technology should be developed on one hand,and human-environment interactions should be adjusted on the other hand.Modem environmental ethics is the philosophical review on modem human race environmental behavior.
Environmental ethics can be a view point as the moral perception of the relationship between humankind and nature in general.The keystone of sustainable development is on harmonious human.environment interactions.with an emphasis on sustainable environmental ethics.Environmental ethics and sustainable development are key issues in the study of man.1and system,as well as a precondition to regional development(Zheng,2005a).
Though there exists theoretical divergence in different environmental ideologies.some general understandings can also be obtained:human races are the only ethical agents on earth;the essence of the environmental crisis is a cultural and value crisis;future generations have the same right as current generations,especially on survival space;differences should be made between human race and other entities on earth,at the same time they are an undivided union;the capability of the earth is limited.Based on the above general understandings.it is possible to form a more open and sustainable environmental ethics.
A more open and sustainable environmental ethics has some special connections.To respect and treat nature friendly means to acknowledge the value and right of nature,that is to say,minimum hurt criterion,basic benefit criterion and fair compensation criterion should be followed.To pay attention to both individuals and mankind should follow justice criterion,equity criterion and cooperation criterion.To have future
generation in mind Should follow responsibility criterion,saving criterion,and cautiousness criterion(Wang,2003;Wang,2004a).The conclusion to be drawn from the above is to give attention to both human race and natural value.to both individual and mankind’s benefit。
and to current and future generation’s rights.The system of environmental ethics norms has the following features:the human race is a product of the evolution of natural history and should maintain a relationship of harmonious co—existence and coordinated evolution with nature;other life.forms,species.ecological systems and all entities in the natural world have their intrinsic values other than their value as tools to human race,and ecological systems and the natural world have values as systems and therefore have the right to continue their existence.The human race is a part of nature and as the highest product of natural evolution;the human race is the spokesman of"natural rights”and is morally responsible to other life-forms and life support systems.The core of environmental ethics is to set up an equal and fair relationship between human races and between man and nature and to advocate harmonious development,co—existence and common prosperity;human races should perform their moral obligations to manage well the earth by respecting nature,cherishing life and taking good care of the natural environment.
In accordance with the theory of CO-integration and the error-correction model,this paper measures the relationship between China’s GDP and the import and export of tourism service trade.The result shows that there are several long-time equilibrium relationships between them separately.In the short run,the speed of the
Correction is very quick from the short departure to long—term equilibrium between economic growth and the export and import of tourism trade,and the export fluctuation on economic growth fluctuation is significant.Export of the tourism trade is Granger reason to economic growth.
After China’s accession to the WTO.China’s service trade is continuously increasing.The proportion of total world exports is rising.and the size of services trade deficit has been narrowing.
As one of the largest surplus in trade.t11e balance of the tourism is close to 100billion U.S.dollars.According to data published by the WTO,China has topped the world’s fifth-largest travel trade country.On the face of it.the development of the tourism trade leads the development of trade in services and promotes economic growth.However how is the cause relation between the tourism trade and economic growth in the end?Among them whether exists a long—term.Stable relationship?If there is a long-term relationship between them.what about the short term impact?
This article attempts to answer these questions by empirical approaches.and gives the suggestions about the development of China’s tourism trade.With the emergence of the international division of labor and the formation of the world market.international trade is increasing.The relation between the international trade and a country economic growth has been continuously improved.From the theory of mercantilism,classical trade theory.the theory about the international trade and economic growth has been continuously improved.Domestic and foreign issues related to the researches are rich.Researches on both the overall relationship between trade and economic growth and specifically on the relationship between export or import and economic growth are all concerned.Its methods have diverted from the initial qualitative research to quantitative and qualitative combining study.
In recent years.the domestic research on trade in services continues to deepen,especially on relationship between trade in service and the economic growth.Research on trade in services and economic growth focuses on the qualitative and quantitative aspects.In qualitative aspects,Gong Feng(2003)pointed out that trade in services had an important supporting role of China's sustained and rapid economic growth.It improved economic efficiency,promoted technological progress,transferred the surplus labor,offered a growing market,strengthened the stability of the economy growth,and so on.Quantitative aspects can be summed up establishment of the
mathematics model of trade in services and economic in three ways:firstly establishment of the mathematical model of trade in services and economic growth;secondly using least squares regression analysis;thirdly the use of co-integration analysis,vector error correction model,and other methods.The use of the third method In time series analysis.traditionally the time series ale required to be stable.That is there is not random trend or uncertainty wend.Or it will be a regression.However.in the real economy the time series are usually non-stable.In 1987Engle and Granger proposed the co-integration theory and methods,provided all alternative way for non—stable time series.Although some economic variables ale not stable.their linear combination is likely to be smooth.This smooth combination is known as the co—integration.And it can interpret variables relations as the long-term,stable and balanced ones together.Based on this theory the paper examines the existence of long-term and stable relations.So first of all the time series data of the volume of the tourism industry import and export and GDP hold up a smooth test.The most common test of time series is the unit root test.The methods of unit root test for a variety are such as the DF test(Dickey~Fuller Test),ADF test(Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test),PP test,KPSS test.The paper adopts ADF test.Non.stationary variables need to test the stability of the difference degree.If the variables of the n-order difference are stable.they are called n—order co-integration.All variables With the same order co-integration are necessary conditions for co-integration and causal relationship.
Firstly.smooth test shows that there is a long—term balanced relationship among the import and export of China’s tourism trade and GDP.Co—integration tests further reveals that the exports of tourism trade have positive impact on GDP,while imports have a negative effect on GDP.Tourism export growing by one percentage leads to GDP growing by the promotion of0.376percentages.If changes in the import are l%。
GDP changes would be3.007%.It can be seen that the impact the tourism imports on GDP is greater than that exports on GDP.Therefore,it's necessary to encourage inbound tourism and at the same time strengthen management of outbound tourism.
Secondly.Granger causality test shows that there is unilateral causal relationship between the exports of tourism and GDP,and causal relationship between the exports of tourism and economic growth does not exist.This shows that exports of tourism provide the source of power for China's growth.Therefore it should be China’s long—term strategy of opening up the tourism sector and increasing its exports.
Thirdly.in the short term imports and exports of tourism impact on GDP at the rate of0.144and0.211.And the relationship from their short.term deviation to the long—run equilibrium is very quickly,finally trend to balance.
资料来源:International Economics Volumes135–136,October–December2013,
Pages1–12
经济政策,旅游贸易和生产多样化(节选)
作者:Iza Lejárraga,Peter Walkenhorst
从分析中我们可以推断的是,促进与东道国的生产能力旅游业的联系是由多种国情影响了多元化的方式。
其中,生产的固定或半固定的因素,如土地,劳动力和资本,似乎有一个相对较小的影响。
在自然禀赋的领域,只有农业资本较为显著。
这与期望的结果相对应,考虑到食物和饮料的需求是旅游经济的主要来源,因此,对农业科技的投资可能与旅游市场建立一定的联系。
此外,值得一提的是显著的后向关联与当地农业关系密切,较大的旅游业规模可能是重要的。
根据回归结果,一个强大的旅游农业的关系不一定会发展为一个小规模的旅游需求。
由此看来,与东道国经济的创业资本变量具有显着的解释意义。
人类发展指数(HDI),这是用来衡量一个国家的总体发展水平,是与旅游联系显著,并呈正相关。
一个可能的解释是,国际游客往往起源于高收入国家,他们可以很容易地在东道国内消费,并且他们会感觉更舒适,也更倾向于具有生活品味的消费。
另外,人类发展指数也解释了国家在卫生和人口教育水平的相对成绩的重要性。
因此,较高的人类发展指数反映了一个更健康,更受过教育的劳动力,因此,有关地方企业的质量这一点,强调妇女在东道国经济中的参与程度也具有重要的正面意义。
总之,提高本地企业的资本可以扩大旅游和东道国其他部门之间的联系。
依据正式制度和对市场的监管,从政府和价格管制的大小代理中,均未发现对关联信息有显著的效果。
尽管民主治理具有重要性,但是这不是一个确定的关键因素。
在另一方面,非正式制度的意义符合固有的旅游集群动态,其中的联系是在自我实施的“关系型”治理的基础上形成的。
此外,非正式结构成本低于正规,规则驱动着体制框架的创新。
因此,高度形式化的规则可以阻止潜在的本地供应商和旅游经济的潜在买家之间的自发对于推动成本的协调工作。
一种正式制度关系到维持治安和警惕。
正如所预期的那样,结果表明,暴力或犯罪发生率较高的国家与低水平旅游业有关。
事实上,供应商在旅游业集群的协调,主要取决于当地的企业家的信任,信任是很难繁荣环境的,一旦它被赋予社会冲突的特点。
同样重要的是,暴力对游客和酒店的部分感觉会使游客冒险的逃到度假酒店的安全边界之外。
最后,酒店经
理和其他外国投资者对于与经济东道国经济建立联系中,感到缺乏可预测性和稳定性。
因此,在东道国经济中维护安全和让人们感受到安全是至关重要的。
虽然所有国家域名可能在促进或阻碍联系中具有重要的作用,商业环境似乎对联系有压倒性的影响力。
在控制了一个国家的自然禀赋,发展水平和体制成熟后,对自己的经营环境解释联系变化的接近20%。
特别是,东道国经济的企业税对信息联系具有重要的影响,这与以成本较低的相关旅游产业为主导建立联系的最显著的不利影响有关。
此外,互联网的广泛使用也显著与供应商有关系,这对协调旅游业有积极的作用。
此外,结果表明,有可能是政府的一种手段为了提高贸易自由化,降低运输成本。
此外,维持一个开放的贸易体制似乎对联系至关重要。
这强调没有保护低效率的经济活动和开放的旅游需求潜力的产品对竞争的重要性。
虽然贸易壁垒可能确实起到督促投资者在旅游经济促使国内商品的销售,他们也将阻碍当地生产商的竞争力。
从进口的角度看,当地生产商将不会采取措施,来满足所需的旅游经济产品的国际质量标准。
然而,对质量的期望,可能远远超过成本,可能会对旅游经济产生决策性意义。
关于联系在不同领域的影响力,营商环境和贸易法规中脱颖而出。
这些领域的独立的贡献,它用自身的能力在因变量解释时,申请其他域控制器,总量达53%和43%,分别变化。
级开发的领域有25%的解释力,同时涵盖机构和禀赋的域提供了23%的独立贡献。
分析的影响,应根据自身的局限性加以考虑。
因果关系的方向不能被完全证实,因为我们使用的横截面的方法,由于数据的限制。
在不存在的时间序列为变量,它是不可能测试对应因果关系。
而关于自然禀赋的解释变量是外生的,一些其他解释变量可能会受到反向因果关系。
尽管如此,似乎没有成为一个强大的先验观念,这将导致我们认为,旅游的联系程度对于贸易政策的影响至关重要影响,制度的质量,是我们的模型中其他变量。
此外,反向因果关系遇到的问题风险从已有的研究中已经确定,从运行的更高水平的经济发展欧亨尼奥·马丁等人的因果关系中得到(2008年),有一个更好的营商环境(Barrowclough,2007年和Selvanathan等人,2009)旅游部门的发展,而不是周围的其他方法。
最后,因变量的建立是间接的旅游支出的比例,使反向因果关系的假设不太引人注目。
虽然它是可能预见的,旅游业的发展可以增加总收入和扩大就业机会,这些都可能对解释变量产生影响,这是不太明显,在旅游收入的组成发生变化时,所发生的在LINK的变化变量也会变化,这就是说,对如果通过纵向设计来进行研究,我们的研究结果还要进一步加强。
现代人道德是现代人类的哲学的思考现代人道德理论的环境性能要求发展一样很好地应用实际.决定现代人的观点伦理学.可持续发展意味着和谐人类··环境交互和下一代责任,强调和谐关系人口,资源,环境与发展,及可持续和健康前提对未来几代人的资源和环境。
中国的和谐社会建设所提出的中国政府应该由环境利用开放的现代人道德的内涵包括人类个体的尊重自然。
尊重人力和尊重未来几代人的发展,这意味着给予考虑自然的价值观。
个人跨代和人类福利和社会福利。
现代人的角色伦理区域发展包括认知、批评、教育、灵感、调整、立法和促进环境管理。
区域发展面临的主要问题是广泛的资源勘探、快速人口增长.。
不合理的工业结构,不公平的福利分配和科技发展的双重影响。
现代人道德规范的制定旨在区域可持续发展,不仅可以协调人口的关系,资源、环境和经济发展,还指导行为选择,推动社会和政治系统变革。
加强法律体系,并提高现代人的公众意识。
人类种族面临严重的全球性挑战资源、环境、人口和贫穷。
为解决这些问题应该开发科技一方面,和人类·环境交互应该调整在另一方面。
现代环境伦理哲学对现代人类环境行为。
环境伦理是一个观点,人类和自然之间的关系的道德观念在大体上。
可持续发展的基石和谐人类.环境与此相关强调可持续发展的环境精神伦理。
环境伦理和可持续发展研究的关键问题是本土系统,以及区域发展的前提条件(郑,2005)。
形成一个更加开放和可持续发展的环境伦理在不同的环境虽然存在理论分歧。
一些一般理解也可以获得:人类种族是地球上唯一的道德代理人;环境危机的本质是一种文化和价值危机;子孙后代享有同样的权利作为当前一代又一代,尤其是在生存空间;人类和其他实体之间的差异应该在地球上,与此同时,他们是一个不可分割的联盟;地球的能力是高于一般理解。
基本上可以形成一个更加开放和可持续发展的环境伦理。
更加开放和可持续的环境伦理学有一些特殊关系。
尊重和友好的对待自然意味着承认自然的价值和权利,也就是说,最小伤害准则,基本福利标准和公正的补偿标准应遵循。
注意个人和人类应该遵循正义标准,股本准则和合作标准。
为了下一代记住应该遵循责任标准,节约标准,和谨慎标准(王王,2003;2003),从上面的结论是兼顾人类和自然价值观.为了两个人和人类的利益以及当前和未来一代的权利。
环境伦理规范体系具有以下特点:人类是一个自然历史演变的产物,应该保持一种和谐共存的关系,协调与自然进化;其他生命,物种的形成.生态系统和自然世界中的所有实体有其内在价值以外的价值作为人类的工具,和生态系统和自然世界的价值观系统,因此有权继续存在。
人类是大自然的一部分,作为最高的自然进化的产物,人类是“自然权利”的发言人和其他生命形式是道德责任和生命支持系统。
环境伦理的核心是建立一个人类种族平等和公正的关系和
人与自然之间,提倡和谐发展,共存和共同繁荣;人类种族应该履行道德义务管理好地球,尊重自然,珍惜生命,爱护自然环境。
按照协整和误差修正的理论模型,本文衡量中国的GDP和进出口之间的关系旅游服务出口生产结果表明,有几个长期平衡它们之间的关系是分开的。
在短期内的速度修正从短很快离开之间长期均衡经济增长和旅游业的进出口贸易,出口波动的影响对经济增长波动是重要的。
出口旅游贸易的格兰杰原因经济增长。
在中国加入贸易不断增长。
中国世贸组织的服务世界出口总额的比例大小正在上升。
.而服务贸易逆差缩小。
作为一个最大的贸易顺差.平衡的旅游业是接近1000亿美元。
根据世贸组织公布的数据,中国已超过全球第五大旅游贸易大国。
在面临的发展旅游贸易的发展服务贸易,促进经济增长。
然而如何导致旅游贸易和经济增长之间的关系结束?它们之间是否存在长期稳定的关系?如果有长期的关系罢了,那短期影响呢?
随着国际分工的出现和世界市场的形成。
国际贸易正在增长。
国际贸易之间的关系,一个国家的经济增长不断提高。
从重商主义理论,古典贸易理论,国际贸易理论和经济增长不断提高.,国内和国外相关问题的研究上扩大。
研究总体贸易和经济增长之间的关系,特别是在出口或进口与经济增长之间的关系都是相关的。
它的方法转移从最初的定性研究,定量和定性相结合的研究。
在最近几年国内服务贸易研究不断深化,特别是在服务贸易和经济关系增长。
调差研究在服务贸易和经济增长主要集中在定性和定量方面。
在定性方面,龚冯(2003)指出,服务贸易有一个重要的配角,中国持续快速的经济,更是提高经济效率,促进技术进步,转移剩余劳动力,提供了一个不断增长的市场,加强了经济的稳定增长,所以在定量方面可以总结数学模型的建立服务贸易和经济的三种方法:首先建立服务贸易和经济增长的数学模型,其次使用最小二乘法回归分析;第三,使用协整分析向量误差修正模型等方法的使用第三种方法近年来越来越频繁。
在时间序列分析中,传统系列啤酒需要稳定。
也就是说没有随机趋势或不确定性趋势,或者这将是一个“pseudo-regression”。
在下面的实体经济瓷砖时间序列通常不固定。
在1987年,恩格尔和协整理论和格兰杰提出了方法,提供所有可选择的为非时间序列。
尽管一些经济变量定啤酒不是固定的。
他们的线性组合可能是流动的。
这个流动线性组合被称为协整。
并且它可以一起解释变量关系长期、稳定和平衡的。
基于在这个理论本文检视长期稳定的存在关系。
所以首先的体积的时间序列数据旅游业进出口和国内生产总值顺利考前最常见的测试时间序列的单位根检验。
单位根检验的方法有很多比如DF测试(Dickey~富勒测试),ADF测试(增强Dickey-Fuller测试),PP测试、kps纸采用ADF测试。
非固定变量对需要测试的稳定性差异程度。
.如果他们的n阶固定差异的变量称为n阶协整。
所有变量协整是必要条件相同的顺序协整和因果关系。
首先,流动试验表明,有一个长期均衡关系在中国旅游的进出口贸易和GDP。
协整试验进一步表明,旅游贸易的出口对GDP有积极影响,而进口GDP.。
旅游出口增长带来负面影响,导致国内生产总值(GDP)增长比例的进口促进0.376百分率。
如果变化l%.GDP变化将一3.007%,可以看出,瓷砖影响旅游进口对GDP比出口GDP。
因此,有必要鼓励入境旅游和出境旅游的同时加强管理。
其次,Granger因果检验表明,有单边旅游业的出口和GDP之间的因果关系,以及因果关系的出口旅游和经济增长不存在。
这表明出口旅游为中国提供电源增长。
因此应该是中国开放旅游业的长期战略,增加其出口。
最后,在短期内进口和出口旅游对GDP的影响的速度0.144和0.211。
并且从短期来看偏离长期均衡的关系非常迅速,最终平衡的趋势。
资料来源:International Economics Volumes135–136,
October–December2013,Pages1–12。