降雨径流连续模拟参数全局灵敏性

1 引言( Introduction)
城市排水管网管理是一项综合性很强的系统 工程，通过排水管网模型预测系统运行状况是辅助 进行城市雨洪控制、排水管网的设计与管理的重要 手段( Breysse et al． ，2007) ． 实际中降雨特性、土壤 含水状况和蒸发水平具有随机性，连续模拟可获得 系统长期 运 行 的 规 律，避 免 单 一 事 件 模 拟 的 片 面 性，从而更 加 客 观 地 评 价 城 市 排 水 系 统 的 性 能，估 算合流制管道溢流 ( Combined Sewer Overflows，简 称 CSOs) 频率及影响，评估调蓄截留设施的运行效
文章编号: 0253-2468( 2011) 04-标识码: A
Global sensitivity analysis of a rainfall-runoff model using continuous simulation
ZHAO Dongquan* ，DONG Luyan，WANG Haozheng，XING Wei
第 31 卷第 4 期 2011 年 4 月
环境科学学报 Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae
Vol． 31，No． 4 Apr． ，2011
赵冬泉，董鲁燕，王浩正，等． 2011． 降雨径流连续模拟参数全局灵敏性分析［J］． 环境科学学报，31( 4) : 717-723 Zhao D Q，Dong L Y，Wang H Z，et al． 2011． Global sensitivity analysis of a rainfall-runoff model using continuous simulation［J］． Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae，31( 4) : 717-723
accepted 20 September 2010
Abstract: Long-term continuous simulation is an important method to evaluate the performance of urban drainage systems and the effectiveness of stormwater management practices． Global sensitivity analysis was conducted using the algorithm of Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation ( GLUE) for the water quantity and quality parameters in the Storm Water Management Model ( SWMM) under a series of continuous simulation scenarios with different intervals among rainfalls． The results showed that model outputs were sensitive to the variations of the buildup and washoff parameters of roof． The sensitivities of the percentage of impervious area and the maximum pollution buildup，buildup rate，and roof washoff exponent were found to increase with rainfall intervals． Furthermore，when the rainfall interval was longer than the soil drying time，the sensitivities of these parameters tended to converge to constants． Rainfall events with antecedent intervals longer than the soil drying time were therefore recommended to be used for parameter identification in the continuous simulation of SWMM to reduce parameter uncertainties． Keywords: SWMM; continuous simulation; global sensitivity; GLUE; water quantity and quality parameters
降雨径流连续模拟参数全局灵敏性分析
赵冬泉* ，董鲁燕，王浩正，邢薇
北京清华城市规划设计研究院环境与市政所，北京 100084
收稿日期: 2010-07-02
修回日期: 2010-08-17
录用日期: 2010-09-20
摘要: 长期连续模拟是客观评价城市排水系统性能、雨洪控制措施效果的重要方法之一． 运用普适似然度法( Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation，简称 GLUE) ，综合分析了暴雨管理模型( Storm Water Management Model，简称 SWMM) 在不同间隔降雨情景下的水量、水质参数的全 局灵敏性． 研究结果表明: 研究小区中屋面冲刷累积参数的灵敏度较高; 不透水率、屋面最大累积量、屋面累积速率及屋面冲刷指数的灵敏性随 降雨间隔的增加而有所提高，且当降雨间隔大于土壤干燥时间时，上述参数的灵敏性均趋于稳定; 进行 SWMM 模型连续模拟时，选择雨前晴天 数长于土壤干燥时间的降雨事件进行参数识别可降低参数不确定性． 关键词: SWMM; 连续模拟; 全局灵敏性; GLUE 法; 水量水质参数
Department of Environment and Infrastructure，Urban Planning ＆ Design Institute，Tsinghua University，Beijing 100084
Received 2 July 2010;
received in revised form 17 August 2010;