中国薪酬和福利的现状和趋势

2010
MERCER
2011
2012
Source : National Bureau of Statistics of China
15
China exports Export have been hurt by slumping demand from Europe
60 50 Increase Percentage (year-on-year) 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6
Source: EIU, July 2012
China’s economic growth is still in a healthy and stable range for the long term
Shen Laiyun, NBS spokesman
World bank cut GDP growth forecast for China in 2012 to 8.2%
Economic expansion will average 8.1% in the 2012-16 period. Investment will remain a key driver of growth, with consumption also playing a more important role.
MERCER
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook (April, 2012)
6
APAC economic outlook 2012
Strong Capital Inflows
Debt Situation?
Export Growth Halved
Investors
Growth
Percentage of Growth
12
Emerging and developing economies World
10 8 6 4
4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10
1
MERCER
Advanced economies
2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8
2007
5
2008
9
2009
13
2010
11
How will 2012 end ? ……
• Global growth weak through 2012 • The global recovery remains at risk • Crisis management remains the top priority • Asia needs to lift its stimulus
MERCER
7
APAC economic outlook 2012
Strong Capital Inflows
Debt Situation?
Export Growth Halved
Japan 135% India 68%
Investors
AU | NZ
<10%
SG | HK
Big Net Savings
0
CPI eases to 30-month low at 1.8%
in July 2012 and PPI data marks sixth straight month of decline
- 3.5%
-5 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
14
China Consumer Price Index (CPI) & Producer Price Index (PPI) Trend of PPI & CPI from 2010
10
CPI
Increase Percentage (year-on-year)
PPI
7.5%
5
6.5%
1.8%
2.0%
Year of Olympics – Capture Real Growth 奥运之年 — 激发下一个理性繁荣
SEPTEMBER 2012
Mercer Beijing
Today’s agenda
• Global and Regional Economic Trend • China Economy and Labour Market Overview • Compensation and Benefits Trend In China • Simple & Effective - Making your benefits matter • Four Questions to Answer about Talent Retention
China FDI Growth
110 100 90 Growth Percentage (Year-on-year) 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 1 3 5 7
2009
MERCER
-8.7
9
11
1
3
5
2010
7
9
11
1
3
5
7
2011
9
11
1
3
2012 First half year turnover: 8.1%
9.4 8.0 8.5
12.2 10.4
11.6
8.2 7.3 3.9 1.8 1.5 8.2
5.9
3.0 3.3
-2
MERCER
-0.7
Source : National Bureau of Statistics of China IMF World Economic Outlook (July, 2012) 2004-2012 Mercer Total Remuneration Survey
2013
10
%
8.2 6.2 3.3 3.5 3.9 3.8 2.7 1.3 0 3.4
5
2.0
3.4
2.7
2.1
0 US CN IN ID VN TH SG HK MY PH TW KR AU NZ JP
-5
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook (April 2012) Source: Asia Forecast Book Q3 2011, IMA Asia
MERCER
1
Global and Regional Economic Trend
The world in 2012
€
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3
Global GDP growth Global growth is moderate to 3.5% in 2012 and 3.9% in 2013
12 10 8 6
Source: World Bank, April 2012
The IMF set back the 2012 GDP growth for China from 8.2 to 8.0. Inflation stay in the 3-3.5% range 2012 and fall to 2.5-3% in 2013.
MERCER
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012 Mar
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook (April, 2012)
5
The effects of euro area crisis on various regions
Very Strong Strong Moderate Limited Insufficient data
17
2011
21
2012
2013 Q4 25
-10
4
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook (July, 2012)
Global inflation Inflation pressure is easing
10
8
Emerging and developing economies
MERCER
12
China Economy and Labour Market Overview
China World's second largest economy
18 16 14 12 Percentage 10 8 6 4 2 0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012(E) 2013(F)
2011
18.4 8.8 4.9 -0.5
13.4
15.3 11.3 1
7
8
9 10 11 12 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2010
MERCER
2012
16
Source : General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of China
China Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) The FDI growth is slowdown, China is exploring new advantages
Baidu Nhomakorabea
5
7
2012
17
Source : Ministry of Commerce of the People’s Republic of China
Moderate and steady growth in an uncertain 2013 Different economists forecast 2012/2013 China GDP growth
MERCER
10
2012 Challenges
IMPACT: Asia’s export engine has stalled
Asia’s year-to-date exports to April 2012, % growth
Apr’11 Japan China Korea Singapore Malaysia Thailand -1.6 27.4 27.9 8.4 4.9 27.4 Apr’12 0.7 6.8 0.9 6.6 4.4 -3.9 EU -7.7 -2.0 -18.5 -5.0 -10.4 -13.6 China -11.4 -0.3 1.4 -3.2 7.1 US 19.1 12.3 18.6 2.1 5.5 3.5 ASEAN 8.6 10.8 12.5 9.5 9.1 10.9
9
Inflation pressure varies widely but is generally projected to recede modestly …….
20
Regional: Inflation Forecasts, % CPI , 2011 - 2013
2011
15 12.6
2012
GDP
CPI (Inflation Rate) 14.6 13.5
Salary Increase
Staff Voluntary Turnover 16.3 15.7
13.4 13.0 11.3 9.6 8.6 4.8 8.7 6.9 5.4 3.3 10.4 9.1 9.6 8.5 9.3
12.8 10.1
6 Percentage
4
US
2
0
Euro area
-2
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 19 10 11 2 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63
2012
2013
6
3.5
4
2.0
3.0
%
2.3
2.0
2
0 US -2
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CN
IN
ID
VN
TH
SG
HK
MY
PH
TW
KR
AU
NZ
JP
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook (July, 2012) Source: Asia Forecast Book Q3 2011, IMA Asia
MERCER
8
Soft landing is likely to continue…… Asia Pacific regional GDP forecast
Regional: GDP Forecasts, % real growth, 2011 - 2013 10
8.0
2011 8
5.5 6.1 6.1 5.6 2.7 4.4 2.6 4.2 3.6
• • • •
MERCER
EU – a major collapse in demand rivalling the Global Financial Crisis China – the main market for the rest of Asia unexpectedly stalls US – modest recovery ASEAN – steady demand growth