IEA的能源处方

国际能源机构于上世纪70年代初的石油危机之后创建。该机构自创建以来，首次大力推动使用核电作为石油和天然气的替代能源。为减少碳排放，该机构敦促欧洲和中国更广泛地使用核电。中国已经计划这么做。国际能源机构呼吁美国提高汽车的燃料效率标准。最后，该机构还敦促中国、欧洲和美国更多地使用可再生能源发电。
For the first time since it was created after the oil shocks of the early 1970s, the IEA has begun to push strongly for nuclear power as an alternative to oil and gas. To reduce carbon emissions, it urges Europe and China to make more use of nuclear energy, as China is already scheduled to do. It calls on the US to improve vehicles’ fuel efficiency standards and, finally, it pushes for more renewable energy to generate power in China, Europe and the US.
国际能源机构甚至警告称，可能会形成一个天然气垄断组织。“另一个不确定性的来源是，主要的天然气出口国可能会‘协调’其投资和生产计划，以避免产能过剩，并将天然气价格保持在高水平。”
The IEA even warned of the possible formation of a cartel for natural gas. “Another source of uncertainty concerns the possibility of major gas-exporting countries co-ordinating their investment and production plans in order to avoid surplus capacity and to keep gas prices up.”
报告表示：“对更严格二氧化碳排放限制的预期，更有利于天然气，而不是煤炭。但随着对天然气供应安全的担忧加剧，预计这种趋势将逐步变为更有利于煤炭。”
“Expectations about stricter CO2-emission regulations favour gas rather than coal. This trend is expected to change gradually in favour of coal, as concerns grow over the security of gas supply,” the report said.
斯特恩爵士辩称，全球变暖的代价之所以高昂，是因为最新的科学研究结果已越来越令人担忧，而且先前的估计并未考虑到人们对可能产生的灾难气候的厌恶。这种厌恶将增加他们愿意为解决此类问题付出的资金。
He argues that the costs are high because latest science had become more alarming and because previous estimates had not taken into account people’s aversion to the risk of catastrophic climatic outcomes, which increases the sums they are prepared to spend to deal with the problem.
未来的全球石油供应将主要依靠沙特阿拉伯、伊朗和伊拉克，而这三个国家也在最不稳定的国家之列。天然气方面也存在类似问题，全球半数探明的天然气储备在伊朗和俄罗斯，而这两个国家都曾将能源资源用作外交武器。
The three countries on which the world will depend most for its future oil supply, Saudi Arabia, Iran and Iraq, are also among its most unstable. A similar problem is emerging in natural gas, with half of the world’s reserves found in Iran and Russia – both countries that have used their energy resources as a diplomatic weapon before.
此外，英国政府气候变化经济顾问尼古拉斯?斯特恩爵士(Sir Nicholas Stern)，近日在英国《金融时报》撰文回应了对其报告的批评。他上周发布的报告受到了越来越多的批评，认为报告夸大了全球变暖的代价。
Separately, writing in the FT today, Sir Nicholas Stern, the British government’s adviser on the economics of climate change, has responded to growing criticism that his report, published last week, exaggerates the costs of global warming.
According to this year’s World Energy Outlook, the IEA’s flagship publication, that would mean: “Growing oil exports from the Middle East will focus attention on the world’s vulnerability to oil-supply disruptions, not least because the bulk of the additional exports will involve transport along maritime routes susceptible to piracy, terrorist attacks or accidents.”
国际能源机构在今年的《世界能源展望》(World Energy Outlook)中表示，这可能意味着：“中东地区日益增长的石油出口，将使人们关注世界对石油供应中断的承受能力，部分原因在于，大部分额外出口将涉及海运，容易受到海盗和恐怖分子的袭击，也容易发生意外。”《世界能源展望》是国际能源机构的主要出版物。
对能源安全的担忧，将削弱国际社会减少碳排放的努力，碳排放与气候变化相关。能源消费大国已开始转而使用煤炭。煤炭虽然是污染最严重的能源，但也是全球最丰富的化石燃料，美国和中国都有大量探明的煤炭储量。
Such worries on energy security will also undermine the world’s efforts to reduce carbon emissions associated with climate change. Big consumers have already begun to turn to coal, one of the most polluting sources of energy but also the world’s most abundant fossil fuel, much of which is found within the US and China.
该机构执行干事克洛德?芒迪(Claude Mandil)作了预言性的预测。他表示，我们目前的道路“可能意味着价格的飞涨，或是更频繁的大面积停电；也可能意味着更多的电力供应中断，更多的气象灾害——或者，所有这些情况同时发生。”
In an apocalyptic forecast, Claude Mandil, the agency’s executive director, said that our current path “may mean skyrocketing prices or more frequent blackouts; can mean more supply disruptions, more meteorological catastrophes – or all these at the same time”.
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为降低对石油输出国组织(OPEC，欧佩克)的依赖，欧美各国已转向俄罗斯、美国、加拿大、墨西哥和挪威等地的油田，但国际能源机构表示，这些油田的产量将会在未来5至7年见顶。
The IEA said the oilfields on which Europe and the US had come to depend to reduce their reliance on the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries would peak within the next five to seven years. These include those in Russia, the US, Canada, Mexico and Norway.
IEA的能源处方
英国《金融时报》首席能源记者卡萝拉?霍约斯(Carola Hoyos)伦敦报道
2006年11月9日 星期四
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国际能源机构(IEA)本周警告称，如果各国政府不立即采取行动，节约能源，投资于核电和生物燃料，世界就会“从一个危机走向另一个危机”。
The world is on a course that will lead it “from crisis to crisis” unless governments act immediately to save energy and invest in nuclear and biofuels, the International Energy Agency warned yesterday.