(完整word版)unit 5 Take a lesson from the economists 翻译

Unit 5 Take a lesson from the economists Economics is the dismal science: so say the large number of people who heap scorn on the intellectural merits of the discipline. Much of the criticism comes from "pure" or "proper" scientist ——physicists, chemists and biologists. Now, economics certainly has its failings. But the general way in which economists approach and describe the world, and how they convey their message about it to others , carries lessons which pure scientists should learn from.

经济学是一门消沉的科学：大量对这门学科的理性优点长期不屑的人这么说。大部分批评来自于“纯粹”或者是“适当”的科学家们—物理学家们，化学学家们，生物学家们。现在，经济学的确有他的缺点，但是经济学家们接触和描述世界的一般方法和他们传递消息给其他人的方式，是纯粹科学家们需要学习的。

Economics has inexactitudes and vagueness built into it. The general lack of reliable data about past events makes virtually impossible the accurate measurement of even the most basic economic variables, such as the total volume of output in a country, or the path of consumer spending, or inflation.

经济学的建立存在不精确性和含糊性。关于过去事件的可靠数据的缺少，使得即便是最基础的经济学变量的精确测量几乎不可能，比如说一个国家的出口总量，消费者的消费情况图，和通货膨胀。

If economists are hazy about what is going right now, they are even less sure about the future. Due to the general measurement difficulties, as well as unforeseen events such as wars or natural disasters, economic forecasts are almost always wrong, sometimes by wide margins. As for economic theories, they change almost according to fashion, with economists allowed to move effortlessly between them, sometimes holding several contrasting points of view at the same time.

如果经济学家们对现在的情况不明确，他们对未来的情况就更不确定。由于总体测量的困难性，以及战争和自然灾害等的不可预见性，经济学的预测通常是错误的，有时甚至是错的非常离谱的。由于经济学理论通常会跟随潮流改变，经济学家们只能无助地在他们之间移动，有时还会同时持有几种有对照性的观点。

The contrast with scientists could not be starker. The tools of an economist's trade are muddy data, loose theorising and a shambling approach to causality which says . that a set of interactions between A, B and C MIGHT lead to a conclusion Z (and only via a roundabout route which takes in P, Q and R as well) . Scientists have a harder-edged way of looking at the world, requiring a set of rigid theories and data based on painstaking experimental observation.

经济学家们和科学家们的对比再完全不过了。经济学家们交易的工具是混乱的数据，不严谨的理论和接近因果关系的摇摆不定，这些说明A,B和C之间一系列的交换可能会导致得出Z的结论。（并且只

有通过包含P，Q和R的迂回路径）。科学家们有看待世界的严谨方式，要求一系列严格的基于艰苦科学实验的理论。

But the economists have been able to use the vagueness with which their subject is afflicted to their advantage. By concentrating on broad conclusions to problems and communicating these in terms that can be understood by the special interest groups they are dealing with, economists have had a generally good record in "assimilating themselves into positions of influence. Scientists have done rather less well by concentrating on the nature of problems rather than on the conclusions or policy prescripitons.

但是经济学家们已经能够将使他们饱受艰苦的模糊性变为优势。通过着眼于问题的广泛结论，和以深处其中的特殊群体所能理解的方式交流，经济学家们在融合他们进入有影响力的位置上有着很好的记录。科学家们着眼于问题本质而不是结论和政策导向。

All this explains why, in British at least, economists as a body of people have had much more success in purely professional terms over the past 20 years than scientists.

这些解释了，在过去的20年里，至少在英国，为什么作为人类的一部分经济学家们相比于科学家们，在纯科学领域有更多的成就。

Take the posts in the Britain government of chief scientific adviser and chief economist. In the first position, Bill Stewart has a thin power base, playing a marginal role in providing scientific advice to dozens of