水环境预测模型
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1 Department of Environmental Science and Engineering, Sichuan Agricultural University, Ya’an, China. 2 College of Architecture and Environment, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China. 3 College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Nankai University, Tianjin, China. 4 Monitoring Institute of Environmental Protection Research of the Ministry of Agriculture, Tianjin, China. 5 Sichuan Institute of Science and Technology of Environmental Protection, Chengdu, China.
Application of Analytic Hierarchy Process– Grey Target Theory Systematic Model in Comprehensive Evaluation of Water Environmental Quality
Jun Wu1,2, Xiaogang Tian3*, Ya Tang2, Yujie Zhao4, Yandirehensive evaluation of the water environment for effective water quality management is complicated by a considerable number of factors and uncertainties. It is difficult to combine microevaluation with the macro-evaluation process. To effectively eliminate the subjective errors of the traditional analytic hierarchy process (AHP), a new modeling approach—the analytic hierarchy process and grey target theory (AHP-GTT) systematic model—is presented in this study to evaluate water quality in a certain watershed. A case study of applying the AHP-GTT systematic model to the evaluation and analysis of the water environment was conducted in the Yibin section of the Yangtze River, China. The micro-evaluation is based on defining the weights of indices of the water quality (IWQ) of each water cross-section, while the macro-evaluation is based on calculating the comprehensive indices of water environmental quality and analyzing the tendency of the water environment of each crosssection. The results indicated that the Baixi and Shuidongmen sections are seriously polluted areas, with the tendencies of becoming worse. Also, the key IWQs of these two cross-sections are 5-day biochemical oxygen demand and chemical oxygen demand of permanganate, respectively. Water Environ. Res., 82, 633 (2010).
Introduction River pollution recently has become a more serious problem in
China. To improve the water quality of a certain river basin effectively, a complete monitoring and management of water pollution is necessary, and the establishment of effective evaluation and forecast method of water quality is the first step
KEYWORDS: evaluation and forecast of water environment, analytic hierarchy process, grey target theory, water environmental forecast.
doi:10.2175/106143009X12529484816231
Many modeling approaches for optimization and evaluation have been used in this field, such as the neural network model (Huang et al., 1996), projection pursuit model (Hu, 1998), model of grey theory (Qin et al., 2007), fuzzy nonlinear optimization model (Wang et al., 1996), PROMETHEE model (Simon et al., 2004), and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) model (Fang, 2005; Liu, 2005; Zeng and Wan, 2000). Among these models, the neural network model can deal with a large number of monitoring data. However, the result of the model generally involves a dispersed rank of water quality, and the rates of appreciation of these ranks are low. While the projection pursuit model solved the problem of the compatibility of evaluation results and increased the rate of appreciation, the defect of this approach appears to be that it cannot take the data of a certain number of sections into account and therefore synthesize the information of the watershed.
During the evaluation and forecast of water environmental quality, a number of uncertain factors exist, and data from different systems should be integrated; thus, several traditional approaches have their limitations to be used in this field. The grey theory, developed by Deng in the 1980s (Deng, 2002), has solved the problem of data integration for the determination procedure and recently has been applied successfully to engineering prediction and control, social and economic system management, and the environmental decision-making system (Huang et al., 1994; Wang, 2004; Yang, 2003; Yeomans and Huang, 2003; Zeng and Wan, 2000; Zeng et al., 2007). The GM(1,1) (Jlius, 2003; Qin et al., 2007) has been applied widely in the evaluation of water environmental quality. Particularly, the grey target theory (GTT), which followed the grey system theory posed by Deng in the 1980s, containing grey relational analysis and grey contribution analysis, has been used to effectively solve the complicated interrelationships among multiple indices through the optimization of grey relational grades (Tan et al., 1998; Wang et al., 2002; Zhu et al., 1996). However, this model lacks rank orders for comprehensive problems. On the other hand, the AHP is useful for handling multiple criteria and objectives in the decision-making process (Zeng et al., 2007). The AHP can be used in various fields
* College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Nankai University, Tianjin, 300071, China; e-mail: txg20032003@.
of effective water environmental management. The thorough evaluation of water environmental quality assesses the rank of the water quality comprehensively, by establishing some mathematic models based on some water quality indices, and provides the scientific basis for effective water pollution management (Hu, 1998).
Application of Analytic Hierarchy Process– Grey Target Theory Systematic Model in Comprehensive Evaluation of Water Environmental Quality
Jun Wu1,2, Xiaogang Tian3*, Ya Tang2, Yujie Zhao4, Yandirehensive evaluation of the water environment for effective water quality management is complicated by a considerable number of factors and uncertainties. It is difficult to combine microevaluation with the macro-evaluation process. To effectively eliminate the subjective errors of the traditional analytic hierarchy process (AHP), a new modeling approach—the analytic hierarchy process and grey target theory (AHP-GTT) systematic model—is presented in this study to evaluate water quality in a certain watershed. A case study of applying the AHP-GTT systematic model to the evaluation and analysis of the water environment was conducted in the Yibin section of the Yangtze River, China. The micro-evaluation is based on defining the weights of indices of the water quality (IWQ) of each water cross-section, while the macro-evaluation is based on calculating the comprehensive indices of water environmental quality and analyzing the tendency of the water environment of each crosssection. The results indicated that the Baixi and Shuidongmen sections are seriously polluted areas, with the tendencies of becoming worse. Also, the key IWQs of these two cross-sections are 5-day biochemical oxygen demand and chemical oxygen demand of permanganate, respectively. Water Environ. Res., 82, 633 (2010).
Introduction River pollution recently has become a more serious problem in
China. To improve the water quality of a certain river basin effectively, a complete monitoring and management of water pollution is necessary, and the establishment of effective evaluation and forecast method of water quality is the first step
KEYWORDS: evaluation and forecast of water environment, analytic hierarchy process, grey target theory, water environmental forecast.
doi:10.2175/106143009X12529484816231
Many modeling approaches for optimization and evaluation have been used in this field, such as the neural network model (Huang et al., 1996), projection pursuit model (Hu, 1998), model of grey theory (Qin et al., 2007), fuzzy nonlinear optimization model (Wang et al., 1996), PROMETHEE model (Simon et al., 2004), and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) model (Fang, 2005; Liu, 2005; Zeng and Wan, 2000). Among these models, the neural network model can deal with a large number of monitoring data. However, the result of the model generally involves a dispersed rank of water quality, and the rates of appreciation of these ranks are low. While the projection pursuit model solved the problem of the compatibility of evaluation results and increased the rate of appreciation, the defect of this approach appears to be that it cannot take the data of a certain number of sections into account and therefore synthesize the information of the watershed.
During the evaluation and forecast of water environmental quality, a number of uncertain factors exist, and data from different systems should be integrated; thus, several traditional approaches have their limitations to be used in this field. The grey theory, developed by Deng in the 1980s (Deng, 2002), has solved the problem of data integration for the determination procedure and recently has been applied successfully to engineering prediction and control, social and economic system management, and the environmental decision-making system (Huang et al., 1994; Wang, 2004; Yang, 2003; Yeomans and Huang, 2003; Zeng and Wan, 2000; Zeng et al., 2007). The GM(1,1) (Jlius, 2003; Qin et al., 2007) has been applied widely in the evaluation of water environmental quality. Particularly, the grey target theory (GTT), which followed the grey system theory posed by Deng in the 1980s, containing grey relational analysis and grey contribution analysis, has been used to effectively solve the complicated interrelationships among multiple indices through the optimization of grey relational grades (Tan et al., 1998; Wang et al., 2002; Zhu et al., 1996). However, this model lacks rank orders for comprehensive problems. On the other hand, the AHP is useful for handling multiple criteria and objectives in the decision-making process (Zeng et al., 2007). The AHP can be used in various fields
* College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Nankai University, Tianjin, 300071, China; e-mail: txg20032003@.
of effective water environmental management. The thorough evaluation of water environmental quality assesses the rank of the water quality comprehensively, by establishing some mathematic models based on some water quality indices, and provides the scientific basis for effective water pollution management (Hu, 1998).