货币金融学第11版-米什金-思考题目答案第25章

Chapter 25
ANSWERS TO QUESTIONS
1.Despite very low interest rates as a result of monetary easing, expenditures on consumer durables were
weak at this period of time, indicating that the interest rate channel, as it affected consumer durables, was not very healthy. As a result, the government instituted such programs in order to more directly stimulate spending in these areas.
尽管由于货币宽松政策利率非常低，但在这段时间内，消费者耐用品支出疲软，这表明利率渠道，因为它影响了耐用消费品，并不是很健康。

因此，政府制定了这样的计划，以便更直接地刺激这些领域的支出。

2.Uncertain. Although consumption is the largest part of overall U.S. GDP, and there is no doubt that these
channels can be important to monetary policy effectiveness, some may disagree with this statement. For instance, even though investment is closer to 15% of U.S. GDP, investment fluctuations are much more pronounced over the business cycle than changes in consumption, leading to the possibility that interest rate effects on investment could be potentially more important. In addition, proponents of the credit view believe that credit market effects are much more important than interest rate effects, and since the credit view primarily impacts investment, credit effects on investment could be potentially more powerful than consumption effects from monetary policy changes.
不确定的。

尽管消费是整个美国GDP的最大组成部分，但毫无疑问，这些渠道对货币政策的有效性很重要，有些人可能不同意这种说法。

例如，即使投资接近美国GDP的15%，投资波动在商业周期中比消费变化更明显，这就导致了利率对投资的影响可能更重要。

此外，信用观点的支持者认为，信贷市场效应比利率效应更重要，而且由于信贷观点主要影响投资，信贷对投资的影响可能比货币政策变化带来的消费效应更强大。

3.If the central bank commits to a higher inflation policy while maintaining low nominal interest rates, this
will raise inflation expectations and therefore lower real interest rates, even if the nominal interest rate is zero. In addition, the central bank can commit to keeping short-term interest rates low for a long time, which can have the effect of lowering longer-term nominal interest rates, which also reduces real
longer-term interest rates.
如果央行在维持低名义利率的同时承诺提高通胀政策，这将提高通胀预期，从而降低实际利率，即使名义利率为零。

此外，央行还可以承诺长期保持低短期利率，从而降低长期名义利率，这也会降低实际较长期利率。

4.Part of the problem with deflation is that lower (negative) inflation raises the real interest rate, which
raises the cost of capital and lowers investment and consumption through the interest-rate channel,
creating further deflationary pressure. In addition, short-term nominal interest rates reach the zero lower bound, meaning traditional monetary policy is rendered ineffective. Thus, by being “responsibly
irresponsible,” central banks can commit to creating strong but temporary inflationary policies that are designed to raise inflation expectations (and hence lower real interest rates) enough to create stimulus through the interest-rate channel and expand aggregate demand safely and surely to get out of a
deflationary spiral.
通缩问题的部分原因在于，较低的(负面)通胀率提高了实际利率，从而提高了资本成本，通过利率渠道降低了投资和消费，从而产生了进一步的通缩压力。

此外，短期名义利率达到零下限，意味着传统货币政策失效。

因此,通过“负责任的不负责任”,央行可以致力于创造强大但暂时性的通货膨胀政策,旨在提高通货膨胀的预期(因此低实际利率)足以创造刺激通过利率渠道和扩大总需求肯定安全的通缩螺旋。

5.An advantage to monetary policy having so many channels through which it can impact the economy is
that if policy is rendered ineffective through any one particular channel, it doesn’t mean the policy is entirely ineffective, as there are other channels and other sectors of the economy in which the same policy can still impact the economy. On the other hand, having so many different channels through which monetary policy operates can increase uncertainty over the effects of any given policy.
货币政策拥有很多渠道影响经济，如果政策呈现无效的通过任何一个特定的渠道，这并不意味着政策完全是无效的，因为有其他渠道和其他经济部门的相同的政策仍然可以影响经济。

另一方面，有这么多不同的渠道，货币政策的运作可以增加任何既定政策的不确定性。

6.True. When countries fix their exchange rate, they must use monetary policy to affect the interest rate in
order to maintain the exchange rate. In other words, the central bank must change the real interest rate to maintain the exchange rate, which means net exports and aggregate demand will be unaffected as long as the exchange rate peg is maintained.
正确。

当国家调整汇率时，他们必须使用货币政策来影响利率，以维持汇率。

换句话说，央行必须改变实际利率来维持汇率，这意味着只要保持汇率挂钩，净出口和总需求就不会受到影响。

7.There are four main mechanisms through which the decline in stock prices could have reduced aggregate
demand and contributed to the severity of the recession. First, the decline in stock prices lowered Tobin’s q and might have reduced investment spending. Second, the decline in financial wealth, as a result of the stock price decline, could have caused a drop in consumption because consumers’ lifetime resources were reduced. Third, the decline in stock prices lowered the value of financial assets, which increased the public’s probability of financial distress, and so they cut back on their purchases of consumer durables and housing. Fourth, the decline in stock prices lowers the net worth of business firms, which increases adverse selection and moral hazard problems in lending and might have resulted in a reduction in lending and less investment spending.
有四种主要机制，即股票价格下跌可以减少总需求，并导致经济衰退的严重程度。

首先，股票价格的下跌降低了托宾的q值，并可能减少了投资支出。

其次，由于股价下跌，金融财富的下降可能导致消费下降，因为消费者的终身资源减少了。

第三，股票价格的下跌降低了金融资产的价值，这增加了公众财务困境的可能性，因此他们减少了购买耐用消费品和住房的费用。

第四，股票价格的下跌降低了商业公司的资产净值，这增加了贷款的逆向选择和道德风险问题，并可能导致贷款减少和投资支出减少。

8.False. Monetary policy can affect stock prices, which affect Tobin’s q and adverse selection and moral
hazard problems in lending, thereby affecting investment spending. In addition, monetary policy can affect loan availability, which may influence investment spending.
错误。

货币政策会影响到股票价格，影响到托宾的q和逆向选择和贷款的道德风险问题，从而影响投资支出。

此外，货币政策会影响贷款的可用性，这可能会影响投资支出。

9.Stock prices will rise. The monetary easing lowers interest rates, so the yields on alternative assets to
stocks, such as bonds, fall. This makes stocks more attractive, increases their demand, and hence raises their price.
股票价格会上升。

货币宽松政策降低了利率，因此替代资产的收益率，如债券，下跌。

这使得股票更具吸引力，增加了他们的需求，从而提高了他们的价格。

10.The lower real interest rates would stimulate investment spending because the cost of financing
investments would fall. However, the stock market decline would cause the market value of firms to fall and so Tobin’s q to fall. The decline in Tobin’s q would then lead to a decline in investment spending.
Because the stock market and the Tobin’s q decline was so large, investment spending actually fell
dramatically during this period.
较低的实际利率会刺激投资支出，因为投资的成本会下降。

然而，股市下跌会导致公司市值下降，因此托宾的q下跌。

Tobin’s q的下降将导致投资支出的下降。

由于股票市场和Tobin ' s q的下降幅度如此之大，在这段时间里，投资支出实际上大幅下降。

11.There are three mechanisms involving consumer expenditure. First, an expansionary monetary policy
lowers interest rates and reduces the cost of financing purchases of consumer durables, and consumer durable expenditure rises. Second, an expansionary monetary policy causes stock prices and wealth to rise, leading to greater lifetime resources for consumers and causing them to increase their consumption.
Third, an expansionary monetary policy that causes stock prices and the value of financial assets to rise also lowers people’s probability of financial distress, so they spend more on consumer durables.
消费者支出有三种机制。

首先，扩张性货币政策降低了利率，降低了购买耐用消费品的融资成本，而消费者的持久支出也随之
增加。

第二，扩张性的货币政策导致股票价格和财富的上升，从而为消费者带来更大的终身资源，并导致他们增加消费。

第三，一种扩张性的货币政策，导致股票价格和金融资产的增值也降低了人们的金融危机的可能性，因此他们在耐用消费品上花费更多。

12.This situation is consistent with Tobin’s q and the wealth effects of expansionary monetary policy. With
lower interest rates, stock prices rise. Tobin’s q predicts that investment will increase, stimulating
aggregate demand. In addition, with the higher stock prices, this will raise wealth, and lead to higher consumption and increased aggregate demand.
这种情况与托宾的q和扩张性货币政策的财富效应相一致。

随着利率的降低，股票价格也会上涨。

托宾的q预测，投资将增加，刺激总需求。

此外，随着股价上涨，这将增加财富，并导致更高的消费和增加总需求。

13.The wealth channel suggests that this type of monetary policy would raise stock prices and increase
house prices, which would raise homeowners’ equity, and hence wealth through housing an d stock
markets. However, even though real interest rates were low, stock values and housing wealth declined sharply, which ultimately decreased consumption and aggregate demand, suggesting monetary policy effects through the wealth channel were ineffective during the global financial crisis.
财富渠道暗示，这种货币政策将提高股票价格，提高房屋价格，从而提高房主的权益，从而通过住房和股票市场获得财富。

然而，尽管实际利率很低，但股票价值和住房财富急剧下降，最终降低了消费和总需求，表明通过财富渠道的货币政策效应在全球金融危机期间是无效的。

14.With an increase in bank reserves, the bank lending channel predicts that deposits and loans will increase,
leading to higher investment. However, the increased amount of reserves did not translate to higher lending due to perceived credit risks by lending banks. As a result, banks chose to simply hold the
increased amount of reserves as excess reserves rather than loan them out, indicating that the bank
lending channel of monetary policy was not operating effectively during the global financial crisis.
随着银行准备金的增加，银行贷款渠道预计存款和贷款将会增加，从而导致投资增加。

然而，由于贷款银行感知到的信贷风险，银行准备金的增加并没有转化为更高的贷款。

因此，银行选择将增加的准备金作为超额准备金，而不是贷出，这表明在全球金融危机期间，货币政策的银行贷款渠道没有有效运作。

15.Since small businesses are more dependent on bank loans than large firms, monetary policy changes that
impact the availability of credit will disproportionately affect small businesses more than large firms.
由于小企业比大公司更依赖银行贷款，因此货币政策的变化会对小企业的影响大于大公司。

16.There are a couple reasons why this might be true. First, bank regulations in the United States have eased,
making it easier for banks to raise funds through various sources which were cumbersome under
Regulation Q. The implication is that the Fed has less control over the behavior of banks in response to policy changes because of the change in regulations. In addition, there has been a worldwide decline in the traditional bank lending business, meaning the sheer size of bank lending is lower, making this
channel less potent.
17.This would lower the net worth of firms, and lead to increased adverse selection and moral hazard,
ultimately resulting in lower investment. This is precisely what happened as a result of the global
financial crisis.
这将降低公司的净值，并导致逆向选择和道德风险增加，最终导致投资减少。

这正是全球金融危机的结果。

18.It would make it more difficult for the central bank to stimulate the economy. The credit view indicates
that adverse selection and moral hazard play an important part in affecting investment behavior and ultimately the economy. However, during downturns, asymmetric information problems increase,
meaning that monetary policy must be more powerful to offset the contractionary effects of increases in adverse selection and moral hazard.
这将使中央银行刺激经济变得更加困难。

信用观点认为逆向选择和道德风险在影响投资行为和最终经济方面起着重要的作用。

然而，在经济低迷时期，信息不对称问题增多，这意味着货币政策必须更有力地抵消逆向选择和道德风险增加所带来的收缩效应。

19.During the Great Depression, the fall in the price level led to a significant decrease in consumer wealth
and a sharp decline in consumption. The decline in prices led to an increase in real debt of more than 20%, and overall, the effect on consumers was to reduce expenditure more than 50%, and housing
expenditures fell 80%.
在大萧条时期，价格水平的下降导致了消费者财富的显著下降，消费的急剧下降。

价格下降导致实际债务增加超过20%，总体来说，对消费者的影响是减少超过50%的支出，住房支出下降了80%。

20.The two channels are similar in that increases in real interest rates lead to lower asset prices, which lead
to lower spending on consumption and housing. The difference is in how changes in asset prices lead to lower spending. Under the wealth effect, people are simply less willing to spend when wealth is lower (due to lower overall lifetime resources), leading to a reduction in spending. The household liquidity effect instead indicates a substitution effect between more liquid assets (such as cash or stocks) and less liquid assets (such as consumer durables or housing). Thus, with lower asset values, households use their resources to purchase safer, more liquid assets rather than consumption or housing, leading to lower aggregate demand.
这两种渠道的相似之处在于，实际利率的上升会导致资产价格下跌，从而导致消费和住房支出减少。

不同之处在于，资产价格的变化会导致更低的支出。

在财富效应的影响下，人们在财富较低的时候更不愿意花钱(因为总体生命周期可利用的资源较低)，导致支出减少。

而家庭流动性效应则表明，流动性更强的资产(如现金或股票)与流动性较差的资产(如耐用消费品或住房)之间存在替代效应。

因此，随着资产价值的降低，家庭使用他们的资源购买更安全、更流动的资产，而不是消费或住房，从而导致总需求下降。

21.(a) Lower mortgage rates should lead to higher housing prices, and raise the value of housing wealth.
This should lead to a lower probability of financial distress, and raise consumer durable and housing expenditure. (b) Even though interest rates were extremely low, if nobody could qualify for the low mortgage rates it would not have an appreciabl e effect on raising the value of household’s financial assets (i.e housing wealth). Thus, the likelihood of financial distress would remain elevated, and not improve consumer durable and housing expenditure.
(a)较低的抵押贷款利率将导致房价上涨，并提高住房财富的价值。

这将导致财务困境的可能性降低，并提高消费者的耐用品
和住房支出。

(b)即使利率极低，如果没有人能够获得较低的抵押贷款利率，它也不会对提高家庭金融资产的价值产生明显的影响(例如，房产财富)。

因此，财务困境的可能性仍然会上升，而不是改善消费者的耐用性和住房支出。

22.There are three main reasons why the credit view may prevail. First, there is evidence to indicate that
financial frictions do significantly affect employment and spending decisions. Second, there is evidence that small firms are hurt more by tight monetary policy than large firms, which are unlikely to be
credit-constrained. Finally, asymmetric information, which is at the heart of the credit view, has wide applicability in explaining many other behavioral and economic-related concepts, so it is likely to play an important role in financial markets and monetary policy.
有三个主要原因可以解释为什么信贷观点会占上风。

首先，有证据表明，金融脆弱性对就业和支出决策产生了重大影响。

第二，有证据表明，小公司比大公司更容易受到紧缩的货币政策的伤害，而大公司不太可能受到信贷限制。

最后，信用观点的核心是信息不对称，它在解释许多其他行为和经济相关概念方面具有广泛的适用性，因此它很可能在金融市场和货币政策中发挥重要作用。

23.False. A monetary easing is associated with falling real interest rates. Even if nominal interest rates are
falling, it could be the case that expected inflation decreases more, leading to an increase in real interest rates and a tighter monetary policy stance.
错误，货币宽松与实际利率下降有关。

即使名义利率下降，也有可能是通胀预期下降更多，导致实际利率上升，货币政策立场收紧。

24.The experience of Japan directly supports the four lessons of monetary policy discussed in the chapter.
First, short-term interest rates in Japan were near zero; however, due to deflation, real interest rates remained elevated, suggesting a contractionary monetary policy stance. Secondly, if Japanese
policymakers would have paid more attention to the collapse of stock and housing markets, this could have led to earlier and swifter action to shore up the economy. Thirdly, Japan took no steps to stimulate the economy other than pushing short-term rates to zero. However, they could have done more to push longer-term rates down through asset purchases and raising inflation expectations. Finally, Japan allowed the economy to go into a deflationary period, leading to unanticipated and undesirable fluctuations in the price level.
ANSWERS TO APPLIED PROBLEMS
25.When the transmission mechanisms are functioning normally (and predictably), policymakers can ease
monetary policy with reasonable precision, so that the aggregate demand curve shifts to the right from AD1 to AD3 and eliminates the output gap. Under periods in which the monetary transmission
mechanisms are not functioning normally, such as during a financial crisis, some channels may not work as effectively, or at all. As a result, for a given monetary policy prescription, the effects on aggregate demand may be muted or nonexistent. In this case, aggregate demand may only shift to the right to AD2 and an output gap may still remain at Y2. This illustrates the limitations of monetary policy to stabilize the output gap in such situations.
当传导机制正常运转时(可预见的)，政策制定者可以以合理的精确度放松货币政策，使总需求曲线从AD1向AD3转移到AD3，消除产出缺口。

在货币传导机制不正常运转的时期，例如在金融危机期间，某些渠道可能无法有效运作，或者根本无法发挥作用。

因此，对于给定的货币政策处方，对总需求的影响可能是温和的或不存在的。

在这种情况下，总需求可能只会向右移至AD2，而产出缺口可能仍在Y2。

这说明了货币政策在这种情况下稳定产出缺口的局限性。

总供给－总需求坐标图。