衡量一国所得

2012
30
11
60
2.5
15
53.5
？
（1）請計算2012總支出？ （2）請計算水果、雞蛋、香水在基期時，佔總支出的比例 （3）請計算水果、雞蛋、香水的CPI （4）請計算水果、雞蛋、香水的CPI的成長率 （5）請計算2012CPI的成長率 以簡單平均法 以加權平均法
為什麼CPI要扣除蔬果與能源呢？
Two Measures of Inflation
15 Percent per Year 10
5
0
-5 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
CPI
GDP deflator
Contrasting the CPI and GDP Deflator
消費者物價指數（不含蔬果及能源）銜接表
基期：100年 =100
年 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102
11月 91.88 92.55 92.05 92.85 93.46 94.06 96.38 98.95 98.16 99.20 100.55 101.57
Problems With the CPI
Each of these problems causes the CPI to overstate cost of living increases. The BLS has made technical adjustments, but the CPI probably still overstates inflation by about 0.5 percent per year. This is important, because Social Security payments and many contracts have COLAs tied1 1981M11 1982M09 1983M07 1984M05 1985M03 1986M01 1986M11 1987M09 1988M07 1989M05 1990M03 1991M01 1991M11 1992M09 1993M07 1994M05 1995M03 1996M01 1996M11 1997M09 1998M07 1999M05 2000M03 2001M01 2001M11 2002M09 2003M07 2004M05 2005M03 2006M01 2006M11 2007M09 2008M07 2009M05 2010M03 2011M01 2011M11 2012M09
The basket: CPI uses fixed basket GDP deflator uses basket of currently produced goods & services This matters if different prices are changing by different amounts.
Problems With the CPI: Introduction of New
Goods
When new goods become available, variety increases, allowing consumers to find products that more closely meet their needs. This has the effect of making each dollar more valuable. The CPI misses this effect because it uses a fixed basket of goods. Thus, the CPI overstates increases in the cost of living.
物價指數類型

物價指數計算範例1
2011年 數量 水果 雞蛋 香水 總支出 20 50 10 價格 10 2 50 支出 200 100 500 800 2012年 價格 11 2.5 53.5 支出 220 125 535 880
100
台灣地區物價指數
50
60
70
80
90
.tw/point.asp?index=2
2003: ?= ?
2004: ?= ? 2005: ?= ?
Inflation rate: ? ?
AC T I VE
L EA RN IN G
1:
movie tickets 2004 2005 2006 $10 $10 $12 textbooks $50 $60 $60
Calculate the CPI
12月 91.54 92.22 91.93 92.94 93.35 94.05 96.51 98.75 98.07 99.15 100.45 101.55
累計平均 91.79 92.39 91.89 92.59 93.27 93.76 95.13 98.23 98.19 98.76 100.00 101.00 101.90
Chap 24 Measuring the Cost of Living
Department of Finance
YUNTECH University
The Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Measures the typical consumer’s cost of living. The basis of cost of living adjustments (COLAs) in many contracts and in Social Security.
物價指數
什麼物價指數 消費者物價指數 躉售物價指數 如何計算物價指數 物價指數如何解讀 物價指數上升5％，代表生活成本也上升5％嗎？ 物價指數應用 全球最貴的大麥克 全球最貴的i-pad
How the CPI Is Calculated
1. Fix the “basket.” The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) surveys consumers to determine what’s in the typical consumer’s “shopping basket.” 2. Find the prices. The BLS collects data on the prices of all the goods in the basket. 3. Compute the basket’s cost. Use the prices to compute the total cost of the basket.
The basket contains 20 movie tickets and 10 textbooks.
The table shows their prices for 2004-2006. The base year is 2004.
A. How much did the basket cost in 2004? B. What is the CPI in 2005? C. What is the inflation rate from 2005-2006?
10
What’s in the CPI’s Basket?
4% 6% 6% 42% 6% Medical care Recreation Education and communication Apparel 17%
CHAPTER 24 MEASURING Other THE COST OF LIVNG
How the CPI Is Calculated
4. Choose a base year and compute the index. The CPI in any year equals
100 x
cost of basket in current year cost of basket in base year
使用CPI注意事項
物價漲5%, 生活開銷一定漲5%嗎? 物價變動對於高所得及低所得家庭的影響相同嗎? 民眾面對不同物品的物價漲跌之感受相同嗎？ 蔬菜漲10%與3C產品漲10%民眾的感受相同嗎?
CPI應用-隨著物價自動調整
假設公務人員薪水每年根據物價指數進行調整 若目前公務人員平均薪資為35000 若目前2013年的CPI為105，CPI年增率平均為2％ 請教2016年公務人員的薪水為何？
Imported consumer goods: included in CPI excluded from GDP deflator Capital goods: excluded from CPI included in GDP deflator (if produced domestically)
Over time, some prices rise faster than others. Consumers substitute toward goods that become relatively cheaper. The CPI misses this substitution because it uses a fixed basket of goods. Thus, the CPI overstates increases in the cost of living.
5. Compute the inflation rate. The percentage change in the CPI from the preceding period.
inflation
rate
=
CPI this year – CPI last year CPI last year
x 100%
CHAPTER 24 MEASURING THE COST OF LIVING
系列1
EXAMPLE
year price of pizza
basket: {4 pizzas, 10 lattes}
price of latte cost of basket
2003
2004
$10
$11
$2.00
$2.50
?= ?
?= ?
2005
$12
$3.00
?+ ?= ?
Compute CPI in each year:
Problems With the CPI:
Unmeasured Quality Change
Improvements in the quality of goods in the basket increase the value of each dollar. The BLS tries to account for quality changes, but probably misses some quality improvements, as quality is hard to measure. Thus, the CPI overstates increases in the cost of living.
4%
Housing Transportation
Food & Beverage
15%
CPI如何平均才合理
如何平均較合理? 假設食物類漲5%, 衣類漲3%
簡單平均: ? 加權平均

假設食物在基期的開銷占20%, 衣占20%, ?
物價指數計算範例2
水果 數量 2011 20 （基期） 價格 10 雞蛋 數量 50 價格 2 香水 數量 10 價格 50 總支出 800
CPI應用名目利率與實質利率

大麥克指數不同國家購買力比較
大麥克指數不同國家購買力比較
CPI範例練習
CPI 2011 2012 105 110 通貨膨脹率
1. 通貨膨脹率？ 2. 若2012年的名目利為10％，實質利率為何？
Problems With the CPI: Substitution Bias