2004全球零售发展指数全球零售商注重新兴市场
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0 = no time pressure 100 = urgency to go
Score3 100 88 86 84 83 82 76 75 74 73 73 72 71 70 70 70 69 67 66 65 65 64 63 63 62 61 60 54 52 49
Key
On the radar screen To consider
Market saturation2 30% 77 92 62 43 55 54 90 67 35 60 83 62 70 32 80 39 57 80 59 84 72 42 71 57 41 41 34 84 15 75
Time pressure 20% 100 72 90 76 93 89 66 65 100 76 79 41 67 53 39 75 56 46 47 46 30 8 58 81 4 32 54 18 65 32
Country risk (economic and political) 25% 56 62 71 83 61 64 52 50 69 68 43 73 59 74 63 74 65 58 70 51 66 88 51 55 86 69 68 45 72 46
Market attractiveness1 25% 56 34 42 60 53 55 29 58 48 38 32 56 38 80 44 52 51 36 46 36 48 79 38 32 81 73 63 45 60 35
1 2
Lower priority
Legend
0 = high risk 100 = low risk
0 = low attractiveness 0 = saturated 100 = high attractiveness 100 = not saturated
Market attractiveness is weighted as follows: law and regulation (5%), population (5%), urban population (5%) and retail sales per capita (10%) Market saturation is weighted as follows: share of modern retailing (10%), modern retail sales area per inhabitant (5%), number of international retailers (10%) and market share of leading retailers (5%) 3 Total weighd based on maximum score of 71 for Russia to equal 100. Source: A.T. Kearney
The 2004 Global Retail Development Index
for
Emerging Market
Global
Retailers
Figure 1: A.T. Kearney’s 2004 Global Retail Development Index™ (top 30 emerging markets)
Geographic area Country 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 Russia India China Slovenia Croatia Latvia Vietnam Turkey Slovakia Thailand Ukraine Chile Bulgaria South Korea Tunisia Hungary Lithuania Morocco Malaysia Egypt Saudi Arabia Taiwan Philippines Romania Hong Kong SAR Mexico Poland Indonesia Czech Republic Iran Weight Eastern Europe Asia Asia Eastern Europe Eastern Europe Eastern Europe Asia Mediterranean Eastern Europe Asia Eastern Europe Latin America Eastern Europe Asia Mediterranean Eastern Europe Eastern Europe Mediterranean Asia Mediterranean Asia Asia Asia Eastern Europe Asia Americas Eastern Europe Asia Eastern Europe Asia
Emerging Market Priorities for Global Retailers
Regionally, Eastern European countries intensified their presence on the index to comprise 45 percent of the nations in the “on the radar screen” and “to consider” categories. In fact, some Eastern European countries — Latvia and Slovenia — garnered high scores from their new memberships in the European Union. While these countries present significant opportunities in 2004, they echo the experiences of Poland and the Czech Republic, suggesting that the time available to take advantage is short. Asia has fewer countries on the index, and although China ranks third, it is holding steady with 14 foreign retailers in the country. Newcomers such as Saudi Arabia and Iran enter the GRDI as longer term opportunities. In the Mediterranean region, countries are well represented, but less attractive this year due to changes in the GRDI methodology and the
Notes:
Introduction
After a pullback in 2003, global retail is back on track for growth. The most significant growth is taking place in emerging markets where about two-thirds of global retailers interviewed are planning to increase their activities this year. The reasons are clear: A host of new member countries in both the World Trade Organization (WTO) and European Union (EU), and increased consumer spending in emerging markets. Tie these changes to growing competition and regulatory requirements in domestic markets, and a new view of global retail is taking shape. To help retailers prioritize their market entry choices, A.T. Kearney developed the Global Retail Development IndexTM (GRDI). This annual survey ranks emerging countries based on four key variables: country risk, market attractiveness, market saturation and time pressure (see appendix: The GRDI Methodology). Among the current year’s key findings is that Russia, once again, ranks as the most attractive emerging market (see figure 1). Despite India’s stiff regulatory environment, it shines as the second star of the year, offering potential similar to that revealed by China 15 years ago. The past year proved challenging for global retailers. Carrefour, Leclerc, Reitan, Metro Cash & Carry, Edeka and Makro withdrew from existing markets as local players acquired more expertise, consolidated and developed more sophisticated supply chains. The growth of discounters in emerging markets is also encroaching on both traditional retailers and local players. In particular, European retailers face a growing threat from their peers in the United States. Office Depot is acquiring its way into Hungary, and the Wal-Mart juggernaut continues to gain strength. However, most U.S. retailers are still missing significant opportunities. In entering new markets, timing and flexibility apply more than ever. At the same time, the rules of engagement are changing. As this year’s index reveals, retailers are becoming more sophisticated, and regional players are quickly learning how to anticipate global retailers’ future moves.
Score3 100 88 86 84 83 82 76 75 74 73 73 72 71 70 70 70 69 67 66 65 65 64 63 63 62 61 60 54 52 49
Key
On the radar screen To consider
Market saturation2 30% 77 92 62 43 55 54 90 67 35 60 83 62 70 32 80 39 57 80 59 84 72 42 71 57 41 41 34 84 15 75
Time pressure 20% 100 72 90 76 93 89 66 65 100 76 79 41 67 53 39 75 56 46 47 46 30 8 58 81 4 32 54 18 65 32
Country risk (economic and political) 25% 56 62 71 83 61 64 52 50 69 68 43 73 59 74 63 74 65 58 70 51 66 88 51 55 86 69 68 45 72 46
Market attractiveness1 25% 56 34 42 60 53 55 29 58 48 38 32 56 38 80 44 52 51 36 46 36 48 79 38 32 81 73 63 45 60 35
1 2
Lower priority
Legend
0 = high risk 100 = low risk
0 = low attractiveness 0 = saturated 100 = high attractiveness 100 = not saturated
Market attractiveness is weighted as follows: law and regulation (5%), population (5%), urban population (5%) and retail sales per capita (10%) Market saturation is weighted as follows: share of modern retailing (10%), modern retail sales area per inhabitant (5%), number of international retailers (10%) and market share of leading retailers (5%) 3 Total weighd based on maximum score of 71 for Russia to equal 100. Source: A.T. Kearney
The 2004 Global Retail Development Index
for
Emerging Market
Global
Retailers
Figure 1: A.T. Kearney’s 2004 Global Retail Development Index™ (top 30 emerging markets)
Geographic area Country 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 Russia India China Slovenia Croatia Latvia Vietnam Turkey Slovakia Thailand Ukraine Chile Bulgaria South Korea Tunisia Hungary Lithuania Morocco Malaysia Egypt Saudi Arabia Taiwan Philippines Romania Hong Kong SAR Mexico Poland Indonesia Czech Republic Iran Weight Eastern Europe Asia Asia Eastern Europe Eastern Europe Eastern Europe Asia Mediterranean Eastern Europe Asia Eastern Europe Latin America Eastern Europe Asia Mediterranean Eastern Europe Eastern Europe Mediterranean Asia Mediterranean Asia Asia Asia Eastern Europe Asia Americas Eastern Europe Asia Eastern Europe Asia
Emerging Market Priorities for Global Retailers
Regionally, Eastern European countries intensified their presence on the index to comprise 45 percent of the nations in the “on the radar screen” and “to consider” categories. In fact, some Eastern European countries — Latvia and Slovenia — garnered high scores from their new memberships in the European Union. While these countries present significant opportunities in 2004, they echo the experiences of Poland and the Czech Republic, suggesting that the time available to take advantage is short. Asia has fewer countries on the index, and although China ranks third, it is holding steady with 14 foreign retailers in the country. Newcomers such as Saudi Arabia and Iran enter the GRDI as longer term opportunities. In the Mediterranean region, countries are well represented, but less attractive this year due to changes in the GRDI methodology and the
Notes:
Introduction
After a pullback in 2003, global retail is back on track for growth. The most significant growth is taking place in emerging markets where about two-thirds of global retailers interviewed are planning to increase their activities this year. The reasons are clear: A host of new member countries in both the World Trade Organization (WTO) and European Union (EU), and increased consumer spending in emerging markets. Tie these changes to growing competition and regulatory requirements in domestic markets, and a new view of global retail is taking shape. To help retailers prioritize their market entry choices, A.T. Kearney developed the Global Retail Development IndexTM (GRDI). This annual survey ranks emerging countries based on four key variables: country risk, market attractiveness, market saturation and time pressure (see appendix: The GRDI Methodology). Among the current year’s key findings is that Russia, once again, ranks as the most attractive emerging market (see figure 1). Despite India’s stiff regulatory environment, it shines as the second star of the year, offering potential similar to that revealed by China 15 years ago. The past year proved challenging for global retailers. Carrefour, Leclerc, Reitan, Metro Cash & Carry, Edeka and Makro withdrew from existing markets as local players acquired more expertise, consolidated and developed more sophisticated supply chains. The growth of discounters in emerging markets is also encroaching on both traditional retailers and local players. In particular, European retailers face a growing threat from their peers in the United States. Office Depot is acquiring its way into Hungary, and the Wal-Mart juggernaut continues to gain strength. However, most U.S. retailers are still missing significant opportunities. In entering new markets, timing and flexibility apply more than ever. At the same time, the rules of engagement are changing. As this year’s index reveals, retailers are becoming more sophisticated, and regional players are quickly learning how to anticipate global retailers’ future moves.