财务管理Chap007
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财务管理Chap007
NPV 1 $1,600
t 1
4
$1,588 (1.10)t
-$1,600
NPV 1 $3,433.75
7-5
NPV Following Unsuccessful Test
Investment Year 1 Revenues Variable Costs Fixed Costs Depreciation Pretax profit Tax (34%) Net Profit Cash Flow -$1,600 Years 2-5 $4,050 (1,735) (1,800) (400) $115 (39.10) $75.90 $475.90
Other scenarios could apply to FDA approval. For each scenario, calculate the NPV.
7-9
Break-Even Analysis
Common tool for analyzing the relationship between sales volume and profitability There are three common break-even measures
Chapter 7
Risk Analysis, Real Options, and Capital Budgeting
Key Concepts and Skills
Understand and be able to apply scenario and sensitivity analysis Understand the various forms of break-even analysis Understand Monte Carlo simulation Understand the importance of real options in capital budgeting Understand decision trees
财务管理课件chap004
FV = 3,000,000(1.15)5 = 6,034,072
4.12
Quick Quiz: Part 1
What is the difference between simple interest and compound interest?
Suppose you have $500 to invest and you believe that you can earn 8% per year over the next 15 years.
money and later money
Discount rate Cost of capital Opportunity cost of capital Required return
4.3
Future Values
Suppose you invest $1000 for one year at 5% per year. What is the future value in one year? Interest = 1000(.05) = 50 Value in one year = principal + interest = 1000 + 50 = 1050 Future Value (FV) = 1000(1 + .05) = 1050
PV = 10,000 / (1.07)1 = 9345.79 Calculator
1N 7 I/Y 10,000 FV CPT PV = -9345.79
4.15
Present Values – Example 2
You want to begin saving for you daughter’s college education and you estimate that she will need $150,000 in 17 years. If you feel confident that you can earn 8% per year, how much do you need to invest today?
4.12
Quick Quiz: Part 1
What is the difference between simple interest and compound interest?
Suppose you have $500 to invest and you believe that you can earn 8% per year over the next 15 years.
money and later money
Discount rate Cost of capital Opportunity cost of capital Required return
4.3
Future Values
Suppose you invest $1000 for one year at 5% per year. What is the future value in one year? Interest = 1000(.05) = 50 Value in one year = principal + interest = 1000 + 50 = 1050 Future Value (FV) = 1000(1 + .05) = 1050
PV = 10,000 / (1.07)1 = 9345.79 Calculator
1N 7 I/Y 10,000 FV CPT PV = -9345.79
4.15
Present Values – Example 2
You want to begin saving for you daughter’s college education and you estimate that she will need $150,000 in 17 years. If you feel confident that you can earn 8% per year, how much do you need to invest today?
财务管理Chap006
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
© 2003 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
年金：等额、定期的系列收支。
如：分期付款、购房按揭、付养老金等 按收付款发生时间的不同分为： •预付年金 •递延年金 •永续年金 •普通年金
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
所以，预付年金的现值=普通年金的现值×（1+r)
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
© 2003 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
递延年金的现值 （有两种方法）
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
© 2003 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
t
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
A(1+r)2
2
A1 r
2
A1 r
t 1
© 2003 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
普通年金的终值 (1)
FVAt A A1 r A1 r A1 r
普通年金终值与
复利终值的关系
普通年金终值是 多笔复利终值之和
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
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普通年金的终值 0 1 A 2 A 3 A A A(1+r) A(1+r)2
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
财务管理课件chap004
Suppose you need $15,000 in 3 years. If you can earn 6% annually, how much do you need to invest today?
If you could invest the money at 8%, would you have to invest more or less than at 6%? How much?
How much would you have at the end of 15 years using compound interest?
How much would you have using simple interest?
4.12
Present Values
How much do I have to invest today to have some amount in the future?
Rate = 10%: PV = 500 / (1.1)5 = 310.46 Rate = 15%; PV = 500 / (1.15)5 = 248.58
4.18
Quick Quiz: Part 2
What is the relationship between present value and future value?
4.17
PV – Important Relationship II
For a given time period – the higher the interest rate, the smaller the present value
What is the present value of $500 received in 5 years if the interest rate is 10%? 15%?
If you could invest the money at 8%, would you have to invest more or less than at 6%? How much?
How much would you have at the end of 15 years using compound interest?
How much would you have using simple interest?
4.12
Present Values
How much do I have to invest today to have some amount in the future?
Rate = 10%: PV = 500 / (1.1)5 = 310.46 Rate = 15%; PV = 500 / (1.15)5 = 248.58
4.18
Quick Quiz: Part 2
What is the relationship between present value and future value?
4.17
PV – Important Relationship II
For a given time period – the higher the interest rate, the smaller the present value
What is the present value of $500 received in 5 years if the interest rate is 10%? 15%?
财务管理课件chap007.ppt
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
7.6
© 2004 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
Estimating Dividends: Special Cases
Constant dividend
The firm will pay a constant dividend forever
Stock Price Sensitivity to Dividend Growth, g
250
D1 = $2; R = 20%
200
Stock Price
150Βιβλιοθήκη 100500 0
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
Growth Rate
7.12
© 2004 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
PV = 2 / 1.2 + 2.10 / (1.2)2 + (2.205 + 15.435) / (1.2)3 = 13.33
Or CF0 = 0; C01 = 2; F01 = 1; C02 = 2.10; F02 = 1; C03 = 17.64; F03 = 1; NPV; I = 20; CPT NPV = 13.33
dividend every quarter and the required return is 10% with quarterly compounding. What is the price?
P0 = .50 / (.1 / 4) = $20
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
财务管理课件chap003 32页PPT文档
They are also useful for comparing companies of different sizes, particularly within the same industry
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
3.3
© 2004 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
Computing Total Asset Turnover
Total Asset Turnover = Sales / Total Assets
3,991,997 / 4,088,797 = .98 times
Measure of asset use efficiency Not unusual for TAT < 1, especially if a firm
425,764 / 3,991,997 = .1067 times or 10.67%
Return on Assets (ROA) = Net Income / Total Assets
425,764 / 4,088,797 = .1041 times or 10.41%
Return on Equity (ROE) = Net Income / Total Equity
61.625 / (1,691,493,000 / 205,838,594) = 7.5 times
3,991,997 / 1,052,606 = 3.79 times
Days’ Sales in Receivables = 365 / Receivables Turnover
365 / 3.79 = 96 days
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
3.3
© 2004 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
Computing Total Asset Turnover
Total Asset Turnover = Sales / Total Assets
3,991,997 / 4,088,797 = .98 times
Measure of asset use efficiency Not unusual for TAT < 1, especially if a firm
425,764 / 3,991,997 = .1067 times or 10.67%
Return on Assets (ROA) = Net Income / Total Assets
425,764 / 4,088,797 = .1041 times or 10.41%
Return on Equity (ROE) = Net Income / Total Equity
61.625 / (1,691,493,000 / 205,838,594) = 7.5 times
3,991,997 / 1,052,606 = 3.79 times
Days’ Sales in Receivables = 365 / Receivables Turnover
365 / 3.79 = 96 days
财务管理课件chap010
Investment
Average Return
Large stocks
12.7%
Small Stocks
17.3%
Long-term Corporate Bonds 6.1%
Long-term Government Bonds 5.7%
U.S. Treasury Bills
3.9%
Inflation
10.1
Risk, Return and Financial Markets
We can examine returns in the financial markets to help us determine the appropriate returns on non-financial assets
Deviation
Year
Actual Average Deviation from
Return Return
the Mean
Squared Deviation
1
.15
.105
.045
.002025
2
.09
.105
-.015
.000225
3
.06
.105
-.045
.002025
4
.12
.105
.015
What is your dollar return?
Dollar return = 1.25 + (40 – 35) = $6.25
What is your percentage return?
Dividend yield = 1.25 / 35 = 3.57% Capital gains yield = (40 – 35) / 35 = 14.29% Total percentage return = 3.57 + 14.29 = 17.86%
财务管理Chap0ppt课件
Net Working Capital
Current Liabilities
Long-Term Debt
How should short-term assets be managed and financed?
Shareholders’ Equity
精选课件ppt
1-8
The Financial Manager
Corporation
Shares can be easily exchanged
Partnership
Subject to substantial restrictions
Voting Rights
Usually each share gets one vote
Taxation
Double
Reinvestment and dividend payout
3. How should current assets be managed and financed?
精选课件ppt
1-5
The Capital Budgeting Decision
Current Assets
Current Liabilities
Long-Term Debt
Fixed Assets 1 Tangible 2 Intangible
◦Treasurer
Cash flow, capital expenditure, capital structure
◦ Controller
Accounting, information systems, taxes
精选课件ppt
1-9
Hypothetical Organization Chart
财务管理课件chap001
Job opportunities
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
1.5
© 2004 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
International Finance
This is an area of specialization among all of the areas discussed so far
between owners and managers
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
1.1
© 2004 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
Chapter Outline
Finance: A Quick Look Business Finance and The Financial Manager Forms of Business Organization The Goal of Financial Management The Agency Problem and Control of the Corporation Financial Markets and the Corporation
Disadvantages Limited to life of owner Equity capital limited to owner’s personal wealth Unlimited liability Difficult to sell ownership interest
Financial Management Decisions
Capital budgeting
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
1.5
© 2004 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
International Finance
This is an area of specialization among all of the areas discussed so far
between owners and managers
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
1.1
© 2004 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
Chapter Outline
Finance: A Quick Look Business Finance and The Financial Manager Forms of Business Organization The Goal of Financial Management The Agency Problem and Control of the Corporation Financial Markets and the Corporation
Disadvantages Limited to life of owner Equity capital limited to owner’s personal wealth Unlimited liability Difficult to sell ownership interest
Financial Management Decisions
Capital budgeting
chap1-财务管理总论
（4）企业与债权人之间的财务关系 企业向债权人借入资金，并按合同按时支付利息和本金所 形成的经济关系。 企业与债权人的财务关系在性质上属于债务与债权关系。
32
（6）企业内部各单位之间的财务关系 企业内部各单位之间在生产经营各环节中相互提供产品和 劳务所形成的经济关系。这种在企业内部形成的资金结算 关系，体现了企业内部各部门之间的经济利益关系。
18
固定资产投资
长期投资
对内投资——直接投资
无形资产投资
短期投资——流动资产投资
固定资产投资
长期投资
直接投资
无形资产投资
对外投资
短期投资——流动资产投资
长期投资——有价证券
间接投资
短期投资——有价证券
企业投资分类示意图
19
投资的内在要求：投资的经济性、投资量 及其产出效应。
因此，应该首先考虑投资规模，也就是在怎样的 投资规模下，企业的经济效益最佳；而且，企业也必 须通过投资方向和投资方式的选择，确定合理的投资 结构（包括内外投资组合、资产组合），以提高投资 效益、降低投资风险。所有这些投资活动都是财务管 理的重要内容。
在成本与风险之间做出权衡。因此在筹资过程中主 要有两个问题需要解决才能达到筹资的目的：
“量”——合理的需要量。 “质”——合理的筹资结构，也即资本结构 （吻合投资需要）成本最低、风险适当。
17
（2）投资活动：是将所筹资金投入使用的过程。
投什么？ 投多少？ 何时投？ 怎样投？
投资方向与投资范围 投资数量 投资时机 投资方式与资产构成
44
（3）债权人应采取的对策 债权人为了降低贷款风险，除了寻求立法保护外，还可以采
取以下措施：
第一，在借款合同中加入限制性条款； 第二，一旦发现公司有剥夺其财产意图时，就拒绝 进一步合作，不再提供新的贷款或提前收回贷款。
32
（6）企业内部各单位之间的财务关系 企业内部各单位之间在生产经营各环节中相互提供产品和 劳务所形成的经济关系。这种在企业内部形成的资金结算 关系，体现了企业内部各部门之间的经济利益关系。
18
固定资产投资
长期投资
对内投资——直接投资
无形资产投资
短期投资——流动资产投资
固定资产投资
长期投资
直接投资
无形资产投资
对外投资
短期投资——流动资产投资
长期投资——有价证券
间接投资
短期投资——有价证券
企业投资分类示意图
19
投资的内在要求：投资的经济性、投资量 及其产出效应。
因此，应该首先考虑投资规模，也就是在怎样的 投资规模下，企业的经济效益最佳；而且，企业也必 须通过投资方向和投资方式的选择，确定合理的投资 结构（包括内外投资组合、资产组合），以提高投资 效益、降低投资风险。所有这些投资活动都是财务管 理的重要内容。
在成本与风险之间做出权衡。因此在筹资过程中主 要有两个问题需要解决才能达到筹资的目的：
“量”——合理的需要量。 “质”——合理的筹资结构，也即资本结构 （吻合投资需要）成本最低、风险适当。
17
（2）投资活动：是将所筹资金投入使用的过程。
投什么？ 投多少？ 何时投？ 怎样投？
投资方向与投资范围 投资数量 投资时机 投资方式与资产构成
44
（3）债权人应采取的对策 债权人为了降低贷款风险，除了寻求立法保护外，还可以采
取以下措施：
第一，在借款合同中加入限制性条款； 第二，一旦发现公司有剥夺其财产意图时，就拒绝 进一步合作，不再提供新的贷款或提前收回贷款。
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Copyright © 2003 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved
20
00
-60
7- 6
Average Market Risk Premia (1999-2000)
Risk premium, %
11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0
Coca - Cola
2 2 Coca - Cola x 1 σ1 (.65) 2 (31.5) 2
Reebok x 1 x 2 ρ12 σ1σ 2 .65 .35 1 31.5 58.5 x 2 σ 2 (.35) 2 (58.5) 2 2 2
Reebok
x 1 x 2 ρ12 σ1σ 2 .65 .35 1 31.5 58.5
fraction of portfolio rate of return + x in second asset on second asset
( (
)( )(
rate of return on first asset
) )
McGraw Hill/Irwin
Copyright © 2003 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved
Principles of Corporate Finance
Seventh Edition
Chapter 7
Introduction to Risk, Return, and the Opportunity Cost of Capital
Richard A. Brealey Stewart C. Myers
7- 14
Portfolio Risk
The variance of a two stock portfolio is the sum of these four boxes
Stock1 Stock1 Stock 2
2 2 x 1σ 1
Stock 2 x 1x 2σ 12 x 1x 2ρ 12σ 1σ 2 x 2σ 2 2 2
7- 13
Measuring Risk
Portfolio standard deviation
Unique risk Market risk
0 5 10 15 Number of Securities
McGraw Hill/Irwin
Copyright © 2003 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved
7- 12
Measuring Risk
Portfolio standard deviation
0 5 10 15 Number of Securities
McGraw Hill/Irwin
Copyright © 2003 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved
7- 4
The Value of an Investment of $1 in 1926
S&P Small Cap Corp Bonds Long Bond T Bill
Real returns
660 267
1000
Index
10
6.6 5.0
1
0.1 1925
1.7
1940
1955
1970
1985
60
Percentage Return
40 20 0 -20 -40
26 30 35 40 45 50
Common Stocks Long T-Bonds T-Bills
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
Year
Source: Ibbotson Associates
McGraw Hill/Irwin
x 1x 2σ 12 x 1x 2ρ 12σ 1σ 2
McGraw Hill/Irwin
Copyright © 2003 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved
7- 15
Portfolio Risk
Example
Suppose you invest 65% of your portfolio in CocaCola and 35% in Reebok. The expected dollar return on your CC is 10% x 65% = 6.5% and on Reebok it is 20% x 35% = 7.0%. The expected return on your portfolio is 6.5 + 7.0 = 13.50%. Assume a correlation coefficient of 1.
McGraw Hill/Irwin
Copyright © 2003 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved
7- 16
Portfolio Risk
Example Suppose you invest 65% of your portfolio in Coca-Cola and 35% in Reebok. The expected dollar return on your CC is 10% x 65% = 6.5% and on Reebok it is 20% x 35% = 7.0%. The expected return on your portfolio is 6.5 + 7.0 = 13.50%. Assume a correlation coefficient of 1.
McGraw Hill/Irwin
Copyright © 2003 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved
7- 8
Measuring Risk
Coin Toss Game-calculating variance and standard deviation
McGraw Hill/Irwin
Copyright © 2003 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved
40 to 50
7- 10
Measuring Risk
Diversification - Strategy designed to reduce risk by spreading the portfolio across many investments. Unique Risk - Risk factors affecting only that firm. Also called “diversifiable risk.” Market Risk - Economy-wide sources of risk that affect the overall stock market. Also called “systematic risk.”
(1) + 40 + 10 + 10 - 20 (2) + 30 0 0 - 30 (3) 900 0 0 900
Percent Rate of Return Deviation from Mean Squared Deviation
Variance = average of squared deviations = 1800 / 4 = 450 Standard deviation = square of root variance = 450 = 21.2%
Swe
Fra
UK
Ire
It
7- 7
Measuring Risk
Variance - Average value of squared deviations from mean. A measure of volatility. Standard Deviation - Average value of squared deviations from mean. A measure of volatility.
2000
Source: Ibbotson Associates
McGraw Hill/Irwin
Year End
Copyright © 2003 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved
7- 5
Rates of Return 1926-2000
McGraw Hill/Irwin
Copyright © 2003 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved
7- 3
The Value of an Investment of $1 in 1926
S&P Small Cap Corp Bonds Long Bond T Bill
Slides by Matthew Will
McGraw Hill/Irwin
Copyright © 2003 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved
7- 2
Topics Covered
75 Years of Capital Market History Measuring Risk Portfolio Risk Beta and Unique Risk Diversification
20
00
-60
7- 6
Average Market Risk Premia (1999-2000)
Risk premium, %
11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0
Coca - Cola
2 2 Coca - Cola x 1 σ1 (.65) 2 (31.5) 2
Reebok x 1 x 2 ρ12 σ1σ 2 .65 .35 1 31.5 58.5 x 2 σ 2 (.35) 2 (58.5) 2 2 2
Reebok
x 1 x 2 ρ12 σ1σ 2 .65 .35 1 31.5 58.5
fraction of portfolio rate of return + x in second asset on second asset
( (
)( )(
rate of return on first asset
) )
McGraw Hill/Irwin
Copyright © 2003 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved
Principles of Corporate Finance
Seventh Edition
Chapter 7
Introduction to Risk, Return, and the Opportunity Cost of Capital
Richard A. Brealey Stewart C. Myers
7- 14
Portfolio Risk
The variance of a two stock portfolio is the sum of these four boxes
Stock1 Stock1 Stock 2
2 2 x 1σ 1
Stock 2 x 1x 2σ 12 x 1x 2ρ 12σ 1σ 2 x 2σ 2 2 2
7- 13
Measuring Risk
Portfolio standard deviation
Unique risk Market risk
0 5 10 15 Number of Securities
McGraw Hill/Irwin
Copyright © 2003 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved
7- 12
Measuring Risk
Portfolio standard deviation
0 5 10 15 Number of Securities
McGraw Hill/Irwin
Copyright © 2003 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved
7- 4
The Value of an Investment of $1 in 1926
S&P Small Cap Corp Bonds Long Bond T Bill
Real returns
660 267
1000
Index
10
6.6 5.0
1
0.1 1925
1.7
1940
1955
1970
1985
60
Percentage Return
40 20 0 -20 -40
26 30 35 40 45 50
Common Stocks Long T-Bonds T-Bills
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
Year
Source: Ibbotson Associates
McGraw Hill/Irwin
x 1x 2σ 12 x 1x 2ρ 12σ 1σ 2
McGraw Hill/Irwin
Copyright © 2003 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved
7- 15
Portfolio Risk
Example
Suppose you invest 65% of your portfolio in CocaCola and 35% in Reebok. The expected dollar return on your CC is 10% x 65% = 6.5% and on Reebok it is 20% x 35% = 7.0%. The expected return on your portfolio is 6.5 + 7.0 = 13.50%. Assume a correlation coefficient of 1.
McGraw Hill/Irwin
Copyright © 2003 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved
7- 16
Portfolio Risk
Example Suppose you invest 65% of your portfolio in Coca-Cola and 35% in Reebok. The expected dollar return on your CC is 10% x 65% = 6.5% and on Reebok it is 20% x 35% = 7.0%. The expected return on your portfolio is 6.5 + 7.0 = 13.50%. Assume a correlation coefficient of 1.
McGraw Hill/Irwin
Copyright © 2003 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved
7- 8
Measuring Risk
Coin Toss Game-calculating variance and standard deviation
McGraw Hill/Irwin
Copyright © 2003 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved
40 to 50
7- 10
Measuring Risk
Diversification - Strategy designed to reduce risk by spreading the portfolio across many investments. Unique Risk - Risk factors affecting only that firm. Also called “diversifiable risk.” Market Risk - Economy-wide sources of risk that affect the overall stock market. Also called “systematic risk.”
(1) + 40 + 10 + 10 - 20 (2) + 30 0 0 - 30 (3) 900 0 0 900
Percent Rate of Return Deviation from Mean Squared Deviation
Variance = average of squared deviations = 1800 / 4 = 450 Standard deviation = square of root variance = 450 = 21.2%
Swe
Fra
UK
Ire
It
7- 7
Measuring Risk
Variance - Average value of squared deviations from mean. A measure of volatility. Standard Deviation - Average value of squared deviations from mean. A measure of volatility.
2000
Source: Ibbotson Associates
McGraw Hill/Irwin
Year End
Copyright © 2003 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved
7- 5
Rates of Return 1926-2000
McGraw Hill/Irwin
Copyright © 2003 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved
7- 3
The Value of an Investment of $1 in 1926
S&P Small Cap Corp Bonds Long Bond T Bill
Slides by Matthew Will
McGraw Hill/Irwin
Copyright © 2003 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved
7- 2
Topics Covered
75 Years of Capital Market History Measuring Risk Portfolio Risk Beta and Unique Risk Diversification