Econometrics and empirical economics
empricial economics投稿经验
empricial economics投稿经验
在投稿Empirical Economics之前，你需要确保你的论文符合期刊的要求和标准。
以下是一些投稿经验：
1. 选择合适的期刊：在投稿之前，你需要仔细研究期刊的定位、审稿标准以及发表要求，以确保你的论文与期刊的主题和观点相符。
你可以阅读期刊的近期发表文章，了解其风格和标准。
2. 高质量的论文：Empirical Economics对论文的质量要求很高，要求论文必须包含实证分析，并且应该具有独创性和原创性。
因此，你需要确保你的论文具有较高的学术价值，并且在研究方法、数据分析和理论应用等方面有创新之处。
3. 严谨的写作和格式：在投稿之前，你需要仔细检查论文的语法、拼写、标点和格式等，以确保论文的学术性和专业性。
此外，你需要仔细阅读期刊的投稿指南，遵循其格式和规范要求。
4. 准备好审稿回复：如果你的论文被送去审稿，你需要准备审稿回复。
你需要仔细阅读审稿意见，并就每一条意见给出合理的回应和解释。
在回应时，你需要保持礼貌和感激，同时也要坚定地表达你的观点和结论。
5. 耐心等待：投稿到发表需要一定的时间，特别是对于高质量的期刊来说更是如此。
你需要耐心等待，同时也要做好持续修改和完善的准备。
总之，投稿Empirical Economics需要仔细研究期刊的要求和标准，确保论文的质量和学术价值，遵循格式和规范要求，准备好审稿回复，并耐心等待发表。
可持续性资本理论
B OSTON U NIVERSITY Center for Energy and Environmental Studies Working Papers SeriesNumber 9501 September 1995 THE CAPITAL THEORY APPROACH TO SUSTAINABILITY:A CRITICAL APPRAISALbyDavid Stern675 Commonwealth Avenue, Boston MA 02215Tel: (617) 353-3083Fax: (617) 353-5986E-Mail: dstern@WWW: /sterncv.htmlThe Capital Theory Approach to Sustainability:A Critical AppraisalDavid I. SternBoston UniversityNovember 1995______________________________________________________________________________ Center for Energy and Environmental Studies, Boston University, 675 Commonwealth Avenue, Boston MA 02215, USA. Tel: (617) 353 3083 Fax: (617) 353 5986, E-Mail: dstern@The Capital Theory Approach to Sustainability:A Critical Appraisal______________________________________________________________________________ SummaryThis paper examines critically some recent developments in the sustainability debate. The large number of definitions of sustainability proposed in the 1980's have been refined into a smaller number of positions on the relevant questions in the 1990's. The most prominent of these are based on the idea of maintaining a capital stock. I call this the capital theory approach (CTA). Though these concepts are beginning to inform policies there are a number of difficulties in applying this approach in a theoretically valid manner and a number of critics of the use of the CTA as a guide to policy. First, I examine the internal difficulties with the CTA and continue to review criticisms from outside the neoclassical normative framework. The accounting approach obscures the underlying assumptions used and gives undue authoritativeness to the results. No account is taken of the uncertainty involved in sustainability analysis of any sort. In addition, by focusing on a representative consumer and using market (or contingent market) valuations of environmental resources, the approach (in common with most normative neoclassical economics) does not take into account distributional issues or accommodate alternative views on environmental values. Finally, I examine alternative approaches to sustainability analysis and policy making. These approaches accept the open-ended and multi-dimensional nature of sustainability and explicitly open up to political debate the questions that are at risk of being hidden inside the black-box of seemingly objective accounting.I.INTRODUCTIONThe Brundtland Report (WCED, 1987) proposed that sustainable development is "development that meets the needs of the present generation while letting future generations meet their own needs". Economists initially had some difficulty with this concept, some dismissing it1 and others proliferating a vast number of alternative definitions and policy prescriptions (see surveys by: Pezzey, 1989; Pearce et al., 1989; Rees, 1990; Lélé, 1991).In recent years, economists have made some progress in articulating their conception of sustainability. The large number of definitions of sustainability proposed in the 1980's have been refined into a smaller number of positions on the relevant questions in the 1990's. There is agreement that sustainability implies that certain indicators of welfare or development are non-declining over the very long term, that is development is sustained (Pezzey, 1989). Sustainable development is a process of change in an economy that does not violate such a sustainability criterion. Beyond this, the dominant views are based on the idea of maintaining a capital stock as a prerequisite for sustainable development. Within this school of thought there are opposing camps which disagree on the empirical question of the degree to which various capital stocks can be substituted for each other, though there has been little actual empirical research on this question.There is a consensus among a large number of economists that the CTA is a useful means of addressing sustainability issues.2 Capital theory concepts are beginning to inform policy, as in the case of the UN recommendations on environmental accounting and the US response to them (Beardsley, 1994; Carson et al., 1994; Steer and Lutz, 1993). There are, however, a growing number of critics who question whether this is a useful way to address sustainability (eg. Norgaard, 1991; Amir, 1992; Common and Perrings, 1992; Karshenas, 1994; Pezzey, 1994; Common and Norton, 1994; Faucheux et al., 1994; Common, 1995). The literature on sustainable development and sustainability is vast and continually expanding. There are also a large number ofsurveys of that literature (eg. Tisdell, 1988; Pearce et al., 1989; Rees, 1990; Simonis, 1990; Lélé, 1991; Costanza and Daly, 1992; Pezzey, 1992; Toman et al., 1994). I do not intend to survey this literature.The aim of this paper is to present a critique of the capital theory approach to sustainability (CTA henceforth) as a basis for policy. This critique both outlines the difficulties in using and applying the CTA from a viewpoint internal to neoclassical economics and problems with this approach from a viewpoint external to neoclassical economics. I also suggest some alternative approaches to sustainability relevant analysis and policy. The neoclasscial sustainability literature generally ignores the international dimensions of the sustainability problem. I also ignore this dimension in this paper.The paper is structured as follows. In the second section, I discuss the background to the emergence of the capital theory approach, while the third section briefly outlines the basic features of the approach. The fourth section examines the limitations of the CTA from within the viewpoint of neoclassical economics and the debate between proponents of "weak sustainability" and "strong sustainability". The following sections examine the drawbacks of this paradigm from a viewpoint external to neoclassical economics and discuss alternative methods of analysis and decision-making for sustainability. The concluding section summarizes the principal points.SHIFTING DEBATE: EMERGENCE OF THE CAPITAL THEORY II. THEAPPROACHMuch of the literature on sustainable development published in the 1980's was vague (see Lélé, 1991; Rees, 1990; Simonis, 1990). There was a general lack of precision and agreement in defining sustainability, and outlining appropriate sustainability policies. This confusion stemmed in part from an imprecise demarcation between ends and means. By "ends" I mean the definition ofsustainability ie. what is to be sustained, while "means" are the methods to achieve sustainability or necessary and/or sufficient conditions that must be met in order to do the same. As the goal of policy must be a subjective choice, considerable debate surrounded and continues to surround the definition of sustainability (eg. Tisdell, 1988). As there is considerable scientific uncertainty regarding sustainability possibilities, considerable debate continues to surround policies to achieve any given goal.Sharachchandra Lélé (1991) stated that "sustainable development is in real danger of becoming a cliché like appropriate technology - a fashionable phrase that everyone pays homage to but nobody cares to define" (607). Lélé pointed out that different authors and speakers meant very different things by sustainability, and that even UNEP's and WCED's definitions of sustainable development were vague, and confused ends with means. Neither provided any scientific examination of whether their proposed policies would lead to increased sustainability. "Where the sustainable development movement has faltered is in its inability to develop a set of concepts, criteria and policies that are coherent or consistent - both externally (with physical and social reality) and internally (with each other)." (613). Judith Rees (1990) expressed extreme skepticism concerning both sustainable development and its proponents. “It is easy to see why the notion of sustainable development has become so popular ... No longer does environmental protection mean sacrifice and confrontation with dominant materialist values” (435). She also argued that sustainable development was just so much political rhetoric. A UNEP report stated: "The ratio of words to action is weighted too heavily towards the former" (quoted in Simonis, 1990, 35). In the early days of the sustainability debate, vagueness about the meaning of sustainability was advantageous in attracting the largest constituency possible, but in the longer run, greater clarity is essential for sustaining concern.In the 1990's many people have put forward much more precisely articulated definitions of sustainable development, conditions and policies required to achieve sustainability, and criteria toassess whether development is sustainable. This has coincided with a shift from a largely politically-driven dialogue to a more theory-driven dialogue. With this has come a clearer understanding of what kinds of policies would be required to move towards alternative sustainability goals, and what the limits of our knowledge are. There is a stronger awareness of the distinction between ends and means. Most, but not all (eg. Amir, 1992), analysts agree that sustainable development is a meaningful concept but that the claims of the Brundtland Report (WCED, 1987) that growth just had to change direction were far too simplistic.There is a general consensus, especially among economists, on the principal definition of sustainable development used by David Pearce et al. (1989, 1991): Non-declining average human welfare over time (Mäler, 1991; Pezzey, 1992; Toman et al., 1994).3 This definition of sustainability implies a departure from the strict principle of maximizing net present value in traditional cost benefit analysis (Pezzey, 1989), but otherwise it does not imply a large departure from conventional economics. John Pezzey (1989, 1994) suggests a rule of maximizing net present value subject to the sustainability constraint of non-declining mean welfare. It encompasses many but not all definitions of sustainability. For example, it excludes a definition of sustainability based on maintaining a set of ecosystem functions, which seems to be implied by the Holling-sustainability criterion (Common and Perrings, 1992; Holling, 1973, 1986) or on maintaining given stocks of natural assets irrespective of any contribution to human welfare. A sustainable ecosystem might not be an undesirable goal but it could be too strict a criterion for the goal of maintaining human welfare (Karshenas, 1994) and could in some circumstances lead to declining human welfare. Not all ecosystem functions and certainly not all natural assets may be necessary for human welfare. Some aspects of the natural world such as smallpox bacteria may be absolutely detrimental to people. In the context of the primary Pearce et al. definition, the Holling-sustainability criterion is a means not an end.The advantage of formalizing the concept of sustainability is that this renders it amenable to analysis by economic theory (eg. Barbier and Markandya, 1991; Victor, 1991; Common and Perrings, 1992; Pezzey, 1989, 1994; Asheim, 1994) and to quantitative investigations (eg. Repetto et al., 1989; Pearce and Atkinson, 1993; Proops and Atkinson, 1993; Stern, 1995). Given the above formal definition of sustainability, many economists have examined what the necessary or sufficient conditions for the achievement of sustainability might be. Out of this activity has come the CTA described in the next section. The great attractiveness of this new approach is that it suggests relatively simple rules to ensure sustainability and relatively simple indicators of sustainability. This situation has seemingly cleared away the vagueness that previously attended discussions of sustainability and prompted relatively fast action by governments and international organizations to embrace specific goals and programs aimed at achieving this notion of the necessary conditions for sustainability.III. THE ESSENCE OF THE CAPITAL THEORY APPROACHThe origins of the CTA are in the literature on economic growth and exhaustible resources that flourished in the 1970s, exemplified by the special issue of the Review of Economic Studies published in 1974 (Heal, 1974). Robert Solow (1986) built on this earlier literature and the work of John Hartwick (1977, 1978a, 1978b) to formalize the constant capital rule. In these early models there was a single non-renewable resource and a stock of manufactured capital goods. A production function produced a single output, which could be used for either consumption or investment using the two inputs. The elasticity of substitution between the two inputs was one which implied that natural resources were essential but that the average product of resources could rise without bound given sufficient manufactured capital.The models relate to the notion of sustainability as non-declining welfare through the assumption that welfare is a monotonically increasing function of consumption (eg. Mäler, 1991). The path ofconsumption over time (and therefore of the capital stock) in these model economies depends on the intertemporal optimization rule. Under the Rawlsian maxi-min condition consumption must be constant. No net saving is permissible as this is regarded as an unjust burden on the present generation. Under the Ramsey utilitarian approach with zero discounting consumption can increase without bound (Solow, 1974). Here the present generation may be forced to accept a subsistence standard of living if this can benefit the future generations however richer they might be. Paths that maximize net present value with positive discount rates typically peak and then decline so that they are not sustainable (Pezzey, 1994). Pezzey (1989) suggested a hybrid version which maximizes net present value subject to an intertemporal constraint that utility be non-declining. In this case utility will first increase until it reaches a maximum sustainable level. This has attracted consensus as the general optimizing criterion for sustainable development. Geir Asheim (1991) derives this condition more formally.Under the assumption that the elasticity of substitution is one, non-declining consumption depends on the maintenance of the aggregate capital stock ie. conventional capital plus natural resources, used to produce consumption (and investment) goods (Solow, 1986). Aggregate capital, W t,and the change in aggregate capital are defined by:W t=p Kt K t + p Rt S t (1)∆W t=p Kt∆K t + p Rt R t (2)where S is the stock of non-renewable resources and R the use per period. K is the manufactured capital stock and the p i are the relevant prices. In the absence of depreciation of manufactured capital, maintenance of the capital stock implies investment of the rents from the depletion of the natural resource in manufactured capital - the Hartwick rule (Hartwick 1977, 1978a, 1978b). Income is defined using the Hicksian notion (Hicks, 1946) that income is the maximum consumption in a period consistent with the maintenance of wealth. Sustainable income is,therefore, the maximum consumption in a period consistent with the maintenance of aggregate capital intact (Weitzman, 1976; Mäler, 1991) and for a flow of income to be sustainable, the stock of capital needs to be constant or increasing over time (Solow, 1986).The initial work can be extended in various ways. The definition of capital that satisfies these conditions can be extended to include a number of categories of "capital": natural, manufactured, human, and institutional.4 Natural capital is a term used by many authors (it seems Smith (1977) was the first) for the aggregate of natural resource stocks that produce inputs of services or commodities for the economy. Some of the components of natural capital may be renewable resources. Manufactured capital refers to the standard neoclassical definition of "a factor of production produced by the economic system" (Pearce, 1992). Human capital also follows the standard definition. Institutional capital includes the institutions and knowledge necessary for the organization and reproduction of the economic system. It includes the ethical or moral capital referred to by Fred Hirsch (1976) and the cultural capital referred to by Fikret Berkes and Carl Folke (1992). For convenience I give the name 'artificial capital' to the latter three categories jointly. None of these concepts is unproblematic and natural capital is perhaps the most problematic. Technical change and population growth can also be accommodated (see Solow, 1986).Empirical implementation of the CTA tends to focus on measurement of sustainable income (eg. El Serafy, 1989; Repetto, 1989) or net capital accumulation (eg. Pearce and Atkinson, 1993; Proops and Atkinson, 1993) rather than on direct estimation of the capital stock.5 The theoretical models that underpin the CTA typically assume a Cobb-Douglas production function with constant returns to scale, no population growth, and no technological change. Any indices of net capital accumulation which attempt to make even a first approximation to reality must take these variables into account. None of the recent empirical studies does so. For example, David Pearce and Giles Atkinson (1993) present data from eighteen countries on savings and depreciation of natural andmanufactured capital as a proportion of GNP. They demonstrate that only eight countries had non-declining stocks of total capital, measured at market prices, and thus passed a weak sustainability criterion of a constant aggregate capital stock, but their methodology ignores population growth, returns to scale or technological change.IV.INTERNAL APPRAISAL OF THE CAPITAL THEORY APPROACHIn this section, I take as given the basic assumptions and rationale of neoclassical economics and highlight some of the technical problems that are encountered in using the CTA as an operational guide to policy. From a neoclassical standpoint these might be seen as difficulties in the positive theory that may lead to difficulties in the normative theory of sustainability policy. In the following section, I take as given solutions to these technical difficulties and examine some of the problems inherent in the normative neoclassical approach to sustainability.a.Limits to Substitution in Production and "Strong Sustainability"Capital theorists are divided among proponents of weak sustainability and strong sustainability. This terminology is confusing as it suggests that the various writers have differing ideas of what sustainability is.6 In fact they agree on that issue, but differ on what is the minimum set of necessary conditions for achieving sustainability. The criterion that distinguishes the categories is the degree of substitutability believed to be possible between natural and artificial capital.7The weak sustainability viewpoint follows from the early literature and holds that the relevant capital stock is an aggregate stock of artificial and natural capital. Weak sustainability assumes that the elasticity of substitution between natural capital and artificial capital is one and therefore that there are no natural resources that contribute to human welfare that cannot be asymptotically replaced by other forms of capital. Reductions in natural capital may be offset by increases inartificial capital. It is sometimes implied that this might be not only a necessary condition but also a sufficient condition for achieving sustainability (eg. Solow, 1986, 1993).Proponents of the strong sustainability viewpoint such as Robert Costanza and Herman Daly (1992) argue that though this is a necessary condition for sustainability it cannot possibly be a sufficient condition. Instead, a minimum necessary condition is that separate stocks of aggregate natural capital and aggregate artificial capital must be maintained. Costanza and Daly (1992) state: "It is important for operational purposes to define sustainable development in terms of constant or nondeclining total natural capital, rather than in terms of nondeclining utility" (39).8 Other analysts such as members of the "London School" hold views between these two extremes (see Victor, 1991). They argue that though it is possible to substitute between natural and artificial capital there are certain stocks of "critical natural capital" for which no substitutes exist. A necessary condition for sustainability is that these individual stocks must be maintained in addition to the general aggregate capital stock.The weak sustainability condition violates the Second Law of Thermodynamics, as a minimum quantity of energy is required to transform matter into economically useful products (Hall et al., 1986) and energy cannot be produced inside the economic system.9 It also violates the First Law on the grounds of mass balance (Pezzey, 1994). Also ecological principles concerning the importance of diversity in system resilience (Common and Perrings, 1992) imply that minimum quantities of a large number of different capital stocks (eg. species) are required to maintain life support services. The London School view and strong sustainability accommodate these facts by assuming that there are lower bounds on the stocks of natural capital required to support the economy, in terms of the supply of materials and energy, and in terms of the assimilative capacity of the environment, and that certain categories of critical natural capital cannot be replaced by other forms of capital.Beyond this recognition it is an empirical question as to how far artificial capital can substitute for natural capital. There has been little work on this at scales relevant to sustainability. However, the econometric evidence from studies of manufacturing industry suggest on the whole that energy and capital are complements (Berndt and Wood, 1979).In some ways the concept of maintaining a constant stock of aggregate natural capital is even more bizarre than maintaining a non-declining stock of total capital. It seems more reasonable to suggest that artificial capital might replace some of the functions of natural capital than to suggest that in general various natural resources may be substitutes for each other. How can oil reserves substitute for clean air, or iron deposits for topsoil? Recognizing this, some of the strong sustainability proponents have dropped the idea of maintaining an aggregate natural capital stock as proposed by Costanza and Daly (1992) and instead argue that minimum stocks of all natural resources should be maintained (Faucheux and O'Connor, 1995). However, this can no longer really be considered an example of the CTA. Instead it is an approach that depends on the concept of safe minimum standards or the precautionary principle. The essence of the CTA is that some aggregation of resources using monetary valuations is proposed as an indicator for sustainability.The types of models which admit an index of aggregate capital, whether aggregate natural capital or aggregate total capital, is very limited. Construction of aggregate indices or subindices of inputs depend on the production function being weakly separable in those subgroups (Berndt and Christensen, 1973). For example it is only possible to construct an index of aggregate natural capital if the marginal rate of substitution between two forms of natural capital is independent of the quantities of labor or capital employed. This seems an unlikely proposition as the exploitation of many natural resources is impractical without large capital stocks. For example, in the production of caught fish, the marginal rate of substitution, and under perfect competition the price ratio, between stocks of fresh water fish and marine fish should be independent of the number of fishingboats available. This is clearly not the case. People are not likely to put a high value on the stock of deep sea fish when they do not have boats to catch them with.If substitution is limited, technological progress might reduce the quantity of natural resource inputs required per unit of output. However, there are arguments that indicate that technical progress itself is bounded (see Pezzey, 1994; Stern, 1994). One of these (Pezzey, 1994) is that, just as in the case of substitution, ultimately the laws of thermodynamics limit the minimization of resource inputs per unit output. Stern (1994) argues that unknown useful knowledge is itself a nonrenewable resource. Technological progress is the extraction of this knowledge from the environment and the investment of resources in this activity will eventually be subject to diminishing returns.Limits to substitution in production might be thought of in a much broader way to include nonlinearities and threshold effects. This view is sometimes described as the "ecological" viewpoint on sustainability (Common and Perrings, 1992; Common, 1995) or as the importance of maintaining the "resilience" of ecological systems rather than any specific stocks or species. This approach derives largely from the work of Holling (1973, 1986). In this view ecosystems are locally stable in the presence of small shocks or perturbations but may be irreversibly altered by large shocks. Structural changes in ecosystems such as those that come about through human interference and particularly simplification, may make these systems more susceptible to losing resilience and being permanently degraded. There is clearly some substitutability between species or inorganic elements in the role of maintaining ecosystem productivity, however, beyond a certain point this substitutability may suddenly fail to hold true. This approach also asks us to look at development paths as much less linear and predictable than is implied in the CTA literature.All things considered, what emerges is a quite different approach to sustainability policy. It is probable that substitution between natural and artificial capital is limited, as is ultimately technicalchange. Additionally the joint economy-ecosystem system may be subject to nonlinear dynamics. This implies that eventually the economy must approach a steady state where the volume of physical economic activity is dependent on the maximum economic and sustainable yield of renewable resources or face decline ie. profit (or utility) maximizing use of renewable resources subject to the sustainability constraint. As in Herman Daly's vision (Daly, 1977) qualitative change in the nature of economic output is still possible. Sustainability policy would require not just maintaining some stocks of renewable resources but also working to reduce "threats to sustainability" (Common, 1995) that might cause the system to pass over a threshold and reduce long-run productivity.The notion of Hicksian income originally applied to an individual price-taking firm (Faucheux and O'Connor, 1995). However, even here it is not apparent that the myopic policy of maintaining capital intact from year to year is the best or only way to ensure the sustainability of profits into the future. If a competing firm makes an innovation that renders the firm's capital stock obsolete, the latter's income may drop to zero. This is despite it previously following a policy of maintaining its capital intact. The firm's income measured up to this point is clearly seen to be unsustainable. In fact its policy has been shown to be irrelevant to long-run sustainability. In the real world firms will carry out activities that may not contribute to the year to year maintenance of capital and will reduce short-run profits such as research and development and attempts to gain market share.10 These activities make the firm more resilient against future shocks and hence enhance sustainability.b.Prices for AggregationSupposing that the necessary separability conditions are met so that aggregation of a capital stock is possible, analysts still have to obtain an appropriate set of prices so that the value of the capital stock is a sustainability relevant value. The CTA is more or less tautological if we use the "right" prices. However, these correct "sustainability prices" are unknown and unknowable. A number of。
英国留学国际金融专业
英国留学国际金融专业英国留学金融专业详解分类及介绍国外关于金融专业的设置，是两方面都有。
一、以微观为主，也就是研究与公司个体有关的投资、融资等行为。
另一方面就是和国内类似的宏观金融的研究。
专业细分英国大学的金融专业按细分不同通常设置在商学院、经济学院或数学学院。
在参考专业排名时需要考虑会计与金融、经济、商学三个方向。
金融专业细分可分为：金融学、公司金融、金融与投资、国际金融、银行与金融、金融与管理、会计与金融、风险管理、房地产金融与投资、金融与经济、金融工程。
金融学：对金融各个细分领域的综合介绍。
下面以曼彻斯特大学为例来看下金融学专业的课程设置：第一学期必修课：Introductory Research Methods for Accounting and Finance; 会计与金融学方法导论Essentials of Finance;金融学精要Derivative Securities衍生证券选修一门：Portfolio Investment证券投资International Macroeconomics and Global Capital Markets国际宏观经济学与全球资本市场Foundations of Finance Theory金融学基础第二学期Financial Econometrics金融计量经济学Advanced Empirical Finance高级实证金融学Corporate Finance; 公司金融选修一门International Finance国际金融Financial Statement Analysis财务报表分析Real Options in Corporate Finance公司金融中的实物期权Mergers and Acquisitions: Economic and Financial Aspects关于企业并购的经济金融思考Dissertation毕业论文公司金融：解决以公司财务、公司融资、公司治理为核心的公司治理结构方面的问题，综合运用各种形式的金融工具与方法，进行风险管理和财富创造。
empirical economics投稿经验
empirical economics投稿经验
我是一个AI语言模型，没有亲身经验，但我可以向您提供一些有用的
信息。
1. 关于期刊选择：Empirical Economics是一本比较有影响力的经济学期刊，它接受与实证经济学相关的研究，包括计量经济学、应用经济学、实证金融学等方面的研究。
在选择期刊时，需要考虑自己的研究方向
和研究方法是否与该期刊的主题和观点相符。
2. 关于论文撰写：Empirical Economics对论文的质量要求很高，要求论文必须包含实证分析，并且应该具有独创性和原创性。
在论文撰写时，应该尽可能使用清晰明确的语言，方法应该严谨、合理，并且数据和
结果应该准确、可靠。
3. 关于选题：Empirical Economics的编辑委员会非常看重研究的实证性，因此在选题时应该着重考虑实证分析的可能性。
同时，需要注意与已
有文献的差异和创新点，不仅要有实证分析的基础，也要有自己的思
考和见解。
4. 关于数据来源和样本选择：Empirical Economics对数据的质量要求非常高，因此在选择数据来源时需要注意数据的可靠性和可用性。
同时，在样本选择时也需要注意样本大小和样本代表性。
5. 关于论文提交：Empirical Economics的作者须知中规定了论文的格式和要求，需要按照其标准进行排版和提交。
同时，在提交前需要认真检查论文中的错别字和语法错误，确保文章的语言表达清晰明确。
总之，投稿Empirical Economics需要具备一定的实证研究基础，并且需要遵循该期刊的要求和标准。
同时，在论文撰写和提交过程中需要认真细致，确保文章的质量和准确性。
计量经济学(英文)重点知识点考试必备
第一章1.Econometrics（计量经济学）：the social science in which the tools of economic theory, mathematics, and statistical inference are applied to the analysis of economic phenomena.the result of a certain outlook on the role of economics, consists of the application of mathematical statistics to economic data to lend empirical support to the models constructed by mathematical economics and to obtain numerical results.2.Econometric analysis proceeds along the following lines计量经济学分析步骤1)Creating a statement of theory or hypothesis.建立一个理论假说2)Collecting data.收集数据3)Specifying the mathematical model of theory.设定数学模型4)Specifying the statistical, or econometric, model of theory.设立统计或经济计量模型5)Estimating the parameters of the chosen econometric model.估计经济计量模型参数6)Checking for model adequacy : Model specification testing.核查模型的适用性：模型设定检验7)Testing the hypothesis derived from the model.检验自模型的假设8)Using the model for prediction or forecasting.利用模型进行预测Step2：收集数据Three types of data三类可用于分析的数据1)Time series(时间序列数据):Collected over a period of time, are collected at regular intervals.按时间跨度收集得到2)Cross-sectional截面数据:Collected over a period of time, are collected at regular intervals.按时间跨度收集得到3)Pooled data合并数据（上两种的结合）Step3：设定数学模型1.plot scatter diagram or scattergram2.write the mathematical modelStep4：设立统计或经济计量模型CLFPR is dependent variable应变量CUNR is independent or explanatory variable独立或解释变量（自变量）We give a catchall variable U to stand for all these neglected factorsIn linear regression analysis our primary objective is to explain the behavior of the dependent variable in relation to the behavior of one or more other variables, allowing for the data that the relationship between them is inexact.线性回归分析的主要目标就是解释一个变量（应变量）与其他一个或多个变量（自变量）只见的行为关系，当然这种关系并非完全正确Step5：估计经济计量模型参数In short, the estimated regression line gives the relationship between average CLFPR and CUNR 简言之，估计的回归直线给出了平均应变量和自变量之间的关系That is, on average, how the dependent variable responds to a unit change in the independent variable.单位因变量的变化引起的自变量平均变化量的多少。
econometric theory and methods中文版 -回复
econometric theory and methods中文版-回复经济计量学理论和方法的中文版[经济计量学理论和方法]是一门研究经济现象的数学和统计方法的学科。
它的主要研究对象是经济数据及其相关性，并通过建立数学模型和统计分析来解释和预测经济现象。
经济计量学的发展对经济学的理论和政策研究产生了深远的影响，并成为现代经济学不可或缺的工具之一。
首先，让我们来了解经济计量学的起源和发展。
经济计量学起源于20世纪初，起初主要关注经济数据的量化和测量方法。
随着统计学和数学的不断发展，经济计量学逐渐成为一门独立的学科，并开始涉及更复杂的经济现象模型和预测方法。
经济计量学的主要发展分为两个阶段：传统经济计量学和现代经济计量学。
传统经济计量学主要关注线性模型和最小二乘估计。
它的核心理论是OLS （Ordinary Least Squares）方法，这是一种最小二乘回归分析方法，常用于估计变量之间的关系。
OLS方法在建模和预测中非常有用，但对数据的假设较为严格，无法很好地处理非线性和异方差等问题。
现代经济计量学则引入了更多的经济理论和统计方法，以应对复杂的经济现象。
比如，VAR模型（Vector Autoregressive Model）和ARCH模型（Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Model）等，这些模型可以更好地处理经济数据中存在的非线性和异方差问题。
同时，现代经济计量学还涉及到时间序列分析、面板数据分析和计量经济模型的选择等方面的内容。
接下来，我们将重点介绍经济计量学中的一些核心方法和技术。
首先是假设检验，它是经济计量学中常用的一种统计方法。
假设检验用于检验经济理论在实证数据中的有效性，帮助我们判断某一经济关系是否具有统计显著性。
通过比较经济数据与理论预测的差异，可以得出结论并进行决策。
其次是回归分析，回归分析是经济计量学中重要的一种统计方法。
计量经济学英文解释
计量经济学英文解释English:Econometrics is a branch of economics that applies statistical methods and mathematical models to analyze and quantify the relationships between economic variables. It aims to provide empirical evidence and test economic theories by using real-world data. By employing various econometric techniques, such as regression analysis, time series analysis, and panel data analysis, econometricians are able to estimate and measure the parameters of economic models, assess the significance of different factors, and make predictions or forecasts about future economic outcomes. Econometrics plays a crucial role in several areas of economics, including macroeconomics, microeconomics, finance, and labor economics, as it helps in understanding economic phenomena, formulating economic policies, and making informed decisions. In addition to its theoretical applications, econometrics also has practical applications in business, government, and research institutions where data-driven decision-making is important. Overall, econometrics provides a systematic and quantitative approach toeconomics, allowing economists to study and analyze economic behavior and relationships in a rigorous and scientific manner.中文翻译:计量经济学是经济学的一个分支，它应用统计方法和数学模型来分析和量化经济变量之间的关系。
伦敦政治经济学院专业
伦敦政治经济学院专业本科专业经济学Economics哲学Philosophy会计与金融Accounting and Finance人类学Anthropology计量经济学与定量经济学Econometrics and Quantitative Economics 政府学Government国际关系与事务International Relations and Affairs社会学Sociology法律/法律研究Law/Legal Studies历史学History经济史Economic History精算科学Actuarial Science商业统计Business Statistics人力资源管理Human Resources Management管理学/工商管理Business-Management and Administration数学Mathematics统计学Statistics环境研究Environmental Studies社会心理学Social Psychology地理学Geography计算机和信息科学Computer and Information Science社会政策学Social Policy研究生专业财会与金融、工商管理、生物科学、经济学、城市科学、犯罪学与犯罪心理学、媒体与传播、文化研究、历史、法律、哲学、心理学、社会学领域等113个专业。
伦敦政治经济学院介绍伦敦政治经济学院（the London School of Economics and Political Science），简称伦敦经济学院（LSE）或伦敦政经。
立思辰留学360介绍说，创立于1895年，是英国久负盛名的世界顶尖公立研究型大学。
与牛津大学、剑桥大学、伦敦大学学院、帝国理工学院并称“G5超级精英大学”，为伦敦大学联盟成员，也是英国金三角名校和罗素大学集团成员。
关于经验经济学的可信度，我们该知道些什么
关于经验经济学的可信度，我们该知道些什么本文素材由小编整理发布。
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翻译：左川老师John Ioannidis (Stanford University)Chris Doucouliagos (Deakin University)【摘要】:经济学的科学可信度本身就是一个科学问题，既可以用理论推测，也可以用经验数据来解决。
在这篇综述中，我们研究了预期会影响经验经济学可信度的主要参数：样本量，所追求效果的大小，检验关系的数量和预挑选，设计、定义、结果和分析模式的灵活性和缺乏标准化，财务和其他利益与偏见，以及努力的多样性和分散性。
我们总结并讨论了在经济和商业研究中缺乏稳健的可再现文化、出版偏见和其他选择性报道偏差的流行以及科学信息市场中的其他问题和偏差的经验证据。
总体而言，经济学文献的可信度可能是有限的，甚至很低。
【关键词】：偏见;信誉;经济学;元研究;可复现;可再现1介绍研究是研究者不可避免地以自我为中心的一种公共产品。
研究和证据市场的可信度受到了严峻的质疑（见Ioannidis，2005，2012a；Young等，2008）。
证据是否失真？错误证据的产生速度是否比正确证据的产生速度快？研究产生和复制足够吗？我们可以做得更好吗？这些问题和其他问题适用于经济学，也同样适用于其他科学。
多年来，研究人员已经发现了几个影响经验经济学研究可信度的问题。
这些包括但不限于：出版偏见（DeLong和Lang，1992）；夸大了统计显著性水平（Caudill和Holcombe，1999年）；将统计意义误认为是经济意义（Ziliak和McClosky，2004年）；正面成果偏误不断增加（Fanelli，2012）；欺诈和不诚实行为（Bailey等，2001；List等，2001）；资助和晋升不合理（Oswald，2007）；无根据的主张和错误信念（Levy和Peart，2012年）；编辑不愿公开剽窃（Enders和Hoover，2004年），并且可能扭曲评审程序（Frey，2003年）。
econometric method
econometric methodEconometric methods, also known as econometrics, are a set of statistical and mathematical techniques used to analyze economic data and test economic theories. These methods are widely used in economics, finance, and other related fields to quantify relationships between economic variables and make predictions.One of the key applications of econometric methods is to estimate and test economic models. By using regression analysis, econometricians can determine the extent to which different variables are related and identify the impact of one variable on another. This helps in understanding cause-and-effect relationships and formulating policy recommendations.Another important application is in forecasting. Econometric models can be used to predict future economic trends, such as inflation, unemployment, or stock market movements. Forecasting is crucial for businesses, governments, and individuals making decisions related to investment, planning, and policy-making.Econometric methods also play a role in policy evaluation. By analyzing the effects of past policies, economists can assess their effectiveness and provide insights for future policy design. This helps in making informed decisions and improving policy outcomes.Furthermore, econometric techniques are employed in empirical research to test hypotheses and draw conclusions based on observed data. They allow researchers to quantify and statistically validate economic theories, contributing to the advancement of knowledge in the field.To apply econometric methods, researchers typically collect and analyze large datasets, using statistical software to estimate models and perform hypothesis tests. The choice of appropriate econometric techniques depends on the nature of the data, the research question, and the assumptions made about the underlying economic relationships.In summary, econometric methods provide a quantitative approach tounderstanding and analyzing economic phenomena. They offer tools for estimating models, forecasting, policy evaluation, and empirical research, enabling economists and researchers to draw meaningful conclusions and make informed decisions based on statistical evidence.。
量化研究方法有哪些
量化研究方法有哪些量化研究方法是指通过数值分析来研究某一现象或问题的方法，主要包括以下几种：1. 实证研究方法（Empirical Research Method）：通过收集、整理和分析大量的实证数据，运用统计学和计量经济学方法进行分析，从而得出结论。
2. 基于统计学的研究方法（Statistics-based Research Method）：使用统计学的方法来处理和分析数据，得出关于数据背后模型的推论和结论。
3. 实验研究方法（Experimental Research Method）：通过在实验室或现场设定实验组和对照组等条件，进行对比实验，以验证因果关系。
4. 调查研究方法（Survey Research Method）：通过问卷调查、面谈或观察等方法，收集大量的主观数据，并对其进行统计分析和解读。
5. 数理经济学方法（Mathematical Economics Method）：运用数学和逻辑推理方法，通过建立定量模型来分析经济问题。
6. 计量经济学方法（Econometrics Method）：利用经济理论和数理统计学的方法，通过构建经济模型并利用经济数据进行实证研究。
7. 多变量分析方法（Multivariate Analysis Method）：通过对多个变量之间的关系进行统计分析，探究变量之间的相互作用和影响关系。
8. 时间序列分析方法（Time Series Analysis Method）：对一系列按时间顺序排列的数据进行统计分析，研究变量随时间的演变和趋势。
9. 实证模型方法（Empirical Model Method）：通过建立实证模型，根据实证数据对模型进行估计和检验，从而验证模型的可靠性和适用性。
10. 数据挖掘方法（Data Mining Method）：通过在数据中发现模式、关联和规律，利用计算机技术进行数据解析和挖掘。
需要注意的是，以上方法并非相互独立，可以根据具体情况进行组合和应用，以达到更好的研究效果。
经济学家英语介绍
经济学家英语介绍Economists are professionals in the fields of economics, business, and finance whose work involves analyzing economic data, developing economic models and theories, and providing policy advice to government and businesses. They study how individuals, countries, and corporations make decisions about how to allocate resources in order to maximize wealth and welfare. They also examine how markets and the economy function and interact with each other, as well as how other factors such as regulation influence their dynamics.Economists use empirical methods, such as econometrics, and statistical analysis to analyze macroeconomic and microeconomic data. They develop theories and models to explain why certain phenomena occur and to determine how best to coordinate economic activities. They also study the relationship between different economic variables and the impact of government policies on the economy. In addition, they may advise on financial planning, investments, taxation, and labor relations.Economists can be employed as researchers by government agencies, international organizations, universities, businesses, or consultancies. They can also serve as policy advisors to government leaders. Economists can also work for financial institutions, helping them to assess and predict market changes. As well, economists are often called upon to speak publicly on complex economic topics and assess their implications.Although traditionally associated only with academia, the scope of economics has broadened considerably in the last fewdecades. Today, economists can be found working in a wide range of fields, such as public administration, health care, energy, law, media, and engineering. Their analytical skills and knowledge of economic theory and data provide valuable insights into the allocation of resources. Furthermore, economists can harness technology to create powerful economic models and data analysis tools.。
图卢兹经济学院申请要求.doc
图卢兹经济学院申请要求图卢兹大学是一所位于法国南部-比利牛斯大区的世界著名大学，也是世界上历史最悠久的大学之一。
那么图卢兹经济学院申请要求有哪些呢？今天为大家解答。
学院入学要求本科项目入学条件：1.高中毕业；2.有高考成绩，高考分数在400分以上；3.中国本科或专科的录取通知书；4.国内500小时的法语培训，TEF在200分以上或TCF在300分以上。
专升本项目入学条件：1.大专毕业证；2.大专三年成绩单；3.高中毕业证；4.高考成绩单；5.国内500小时的法语培训，TEF在200分以上或TCF在300分以上。
硕士研究生项目入学条件：1.大学大四在读或者大学已经毕业；2.有大学毕业证、学位证、成绩单；3.大四在读学生需出具高中毕业证、高考成绩单、大学录取通知书、大学在读证明；4.国内500小时的法语培训，TEF在200分以上或TCF在300分以上。
经济条件：1.有能力提供人民币7-10万元的银行存款证明。
2.申请前一个月内存在本人所开的银行账户里，冻结期为3个月。
学院简介学校位于法国南部的图卢兹市，南部-比利牛斯大区（Midi-Pyrénées）上加龙省（Haute-Garonne）的省会、被称作＂玫瑰之城＂的城市，她的魅力不仅来自于丰富多彩的历史，也在于它充满了与未来紧紧相连的活动：众多大学；二十五所高等专科学校；尖端的科技（空中客车工业公司总部、航空航天中心、国家气象中心、国家航天研究中心）。
图卢兹第一大学本部有法律系、经济管理、计算机系、社会学、数学系、统计学等众多专业。
并与多家企业、机构建立了密切的合作关系。
作为图卢兹第一大学的独立经济学院的TSE，已经晋升为法国的＂大学校＂（＂Grande Ecole＂），有着独立且严格的选拔机制，淘汰率高。
TSE硕士研究生、博士研究生院集中了全部高等深入研究文凭（DEA）课程以及与国家科研中心（CNRS）的合作团队和相关研究生培养小组。
介绍本科经历英文
介绍本科经历英文During my undergraduate studies, I pursued a Bachelor's degree in Economics. This field fascinated me as it provided an in-depth understanding of the complexities of global markets, decision-making processes, and economic theories.In my first year, I focused on building a strong foundation in economics. I studied core subjects such as Microeconomics, Macroeconomics, and Econometrics. These courses helped me grasp fundamental economic principles, including supply and demand dynamics, fiscal and monetary policies, and regression analysis.As I progressed to the second year, I delved deeper into specialized areas of economics. I took courses in International Economics, Development Economics, andIndustrial Organization. These subjects enabled me to explore the interplay between nations' economies, the challengesfaced by developing countries, and the dynamics within industries.To complement my theoretical knowledge, I actively participated in various research projects. One notable project I worked on involved analyzing the impact of trade policies on the domestic agricultural sector. Through extensive literature review and empirical analysis, I gained valuable insights into the effects of protectionist measures and their implications for local farmers.In my third year, I decided to broaden my horizons by taking interdisciplinary courses. I enrolled in classes such as Managerial Economics and Financial Accounting, which allowed me to explore the interface between economics and business. These courses enhanced my analytical skills, decision-making abilities, and understanding of financial statements.Furthermore, I was selected to participate in a semester-long internship program at a prestigious financial institution. During this internship, I was exposed to real-world applications of economic theories and gained hands-on experience in analyzing market trends, conducting industry research, and developing investment strategies.In my final year, I focused on advanced courses such as Game Theory and Behavioral Economics. I found these subjects particularly intriguing as they applied economic principles to understand individual and collective decision-making processes. This knowledge has been invaluable in comprehending human behavior, market dynamics, and policy implications.Throughout my undergraduate journey, I actively engaged in extracurricular activities related to economics. I regularly attended seminars, workshops, and conferences to stay updated with the latest developments in the field. Ialso joined the Economics Club, where I collaborated with fellow students to organize events, discuss economic issues, and invite guest speakers.Overall, my undergraduate experience in economics has equipped me with a solid foundation in economic theory, analytical skills, and research capabilities. This interdisciplinary education has fostered my passion for understanding economic phenomena and their implications for society. I look forward to leveraging this knowledge in my future endeavors, whether it be pursuing postgraduate studies or contributing to the field of economics through research or policymaking.。
经济学与经济统计学论文
经济学与经济统计学论文Title: The Impact of Income Inequality on Economic Growth: An Empirical AnalysisIntroduction:Income inequality is a critical issue in economic development, with implications for overall economic growth and social stability. This paper aims to investigate the relationship between income inequality and economic growth using empirical data and statistical analysis. By examining the relationship between these two variables, we can better understand the potential consequences of income inequality on a country's economic performance. Literature Review:Previous research has shown mixed results regarding the impact of income inequality on economic growth. Some studies find a negative relationship, suggesting that higher levels of income inequality can hinder economic growth by reducing investment and consumption levels among the poor. Other studies argue that income inequality may have a positive effect on growth by incentivizing individuals to work harder and invest more. In this paper, we aim to contribute to this ongoing debate by analyzing the relationship between income inequality and economic growth in a cross-country context.Data and Methodology:We analyze data from a sample of countries over a specific time period, using regression analysis to examine the relationship between income inequality (measured by the Gini coefficient) and economic growth (measured by GDP per capita growth). Wecontrol for other relevant factors such as government spending, education levels, and trade openness to isolate the impact of income inequality on economic growth.Results:Our empirical analysis shows a negative relationship between income inequality and economic growth. Higher levels of income inequality are associated with lower economic growth rates, even after controlling for other factors. This suggests that reducing income inequality may have positive effects on overall economic performance, by boosting consumption and investment levels among the less wealthy segments of society.Conclusion:Our findings highlight the importance of addressing income inequality in efforts to promote sustainable economic growth. Policymakers should consider implementing measures to reduce income inequality, such as progressive taxation, social welfare programs, and investment in education and healthcare. By fostering a more equal distribution of income, countries may be able to boost economic growth and improve social welfare outcomes in the long run. Further research is needed to explore the mechanisms through which income inequality impacts economic growth, and to identify specific policy interventions that can effectively address this issue.。
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Journal of Econometrics 100(2001)3}5EssaysEconometrics and empirical economicsJames J.Heckman *Department of Economics,Uni v ersity of Chicago and the American Bar Foundation,126East 59th street,Chicago IL 60637,USAEconometrics is useful only if it helps economists conduct and interpret empirical research on economic data.Empirical research is intrinsically an inductive activity,building up generalizations from data,and using data to test competing models,to evaluate policies and to forecast the e !ects of new policies or modi "cations of existing policies.In the past two decades,the gap between econometric theory and empirical practice has grown.There are two main reasons for this phenomenon.Theoret-ical econometrics has become more closely tied to mathematical statistics.Empirical economists as a whole have adopted more of a public policy focus in their research,emphasizing transparency and simplicity as hallmarks of good empirical research for communication in public policy forums (see Heckman,2000).The average level of econometric literacy among empirical economists has declined because the perceived need for rigorous econometrics has declined.If this trend continues,theoretical econometrics will be viewed by most econom-ists as essentially irrelevant to empirical research,and a less formal (and more confused)&practical 'econometrics will take its place }a trend well underway in some applied "elds of economics.The development of a rigorous econometric theory strongly rooted in the latest advances in statistical theory is a major improvement in the "eld.Many confusions in the earlier literature have been clari "ed by using the tools of probability theory to make sharper de "nitions and distinctions.At the same time,given the rapid progress in mathematical statistics,knowledge transfer and adaptation have become more highly rewarded activities in econometric theory,as the source "eld has expanded in depth and breadth.*Corresponding author.Tel.:#1-773-702-0634;fax:#1-773-702-8490.E-mail address:jjh @ (J.J.Heckman).0304-4076/01/$-see front matter 2001Elsevier Science S.A.All rights reserved.PII:S 0304-4076(00)00044-04J.J.Heckman/Journal of Econometrics100(2001)3}5There is nothing wrong,and much potential value,in using methods and ideas from other"elds to improve empirical work in economics.There are,however, some risks in uncritically adopting the methods and the mind set of the statisticians.Statistics is strong in producing sampling theorems and in devising ways to describe data.But the"eld is not rooted in science,or in formal causal models of phenomena,and models of behavior of the sort that are central to economics are not a part of that"eld and are alien to most statisticians(see,for example,Holland,1986).Econometric methods uncritically adapted from statis-tics are not useful in many of the research activities pursued by economists.A theorem}proof format is poorly suited for analyzing economic data which requires skills of synthesis,interpretation and empirical mand of statistical methods is only a park and sometimes a very small part,of what is required to do"rst-class empirical research.Consider two examples of the statistical mind set applied to econometric problems:(1)The use of&high level'assumptions about statistical models(e.g. assumptions about the sampling behavior of likelihoods or moments rather than about the economic primitives that give rise to the statistical models)or unveri"able assumptions about underlying populations that are not justi"ed by economic theory.It is di$cult to verify or interpret these conditions and their link to economic models is obscure.Reliance on conditional independence assumptions in matching methods in the treatment e!ects literature is a good example of this approach.These are adapted from statistics without clear statements of what implicit behavioral assumptions are being made(e.g.that agents do not select into a treatment on the basis of variables not observed by the econometrician but the unobservables a!ect outcomes,and that a fortuitous randomization assigns people of the same observed characteristics to treatment and control states;see Heckman et al.,1999a;Heckman and Smith,1998; Heckman and Vytlacil,2001).A similar phenomenon characterizes the recent literature on instrumental variables when responses to treatment are hetero-geneous.(See the exchange between Angrist and Imbens,1999;Heckman, 1999.)(2)Another example is the recent promotion of the&Rubin causal model' (Rubin,1978)as a new framework for counterfactual analysis in economics. This model is a crude version of the standard econometric model of policy evaluation developed over the past century(see Heckman,2000;Heck-man and Vytlacil,2001,or Pearl,2000).It is not well suited to address the range of counterfactual questions in market settings addressed by economists for decades(see Heckman et al.,1999b,and Heckman and Vytlacil,2001).Given the current disconnect between economics and econometrics,it is of no wonder that many empirical economists no longer look to econometrics for guidance on how to analyze or interpret data.Intuitive economics as practiced by natural experimenters or calibration as practiced by many applied theorists makes a closer link with data and economics than much of the body of formal econometrics.Data quality,data collection and economic interpretation ofJ.J.Heckman/Journal of Econometrics100(2001)3}55 statistical evidence are perceived as topics o!limits to econometricians,but central to the"eld of empirical economics.My forecast for the future is conditional.If knowledge transfer from math-ematical statistics continues as the mainstream activity of theoretical econo-metrics,it will increasingly be perceived as irrelevant to economics and empirical work,and will be perceived as a branch of statistics.Econometricians will cease to respond to the economic problems that traditionally motivated theoretical work in the"eld and both econometrics and economics will be poorer for this.If,on the other hand,the limits of mathematical statistics as a guide to empirical analysis and interpretation of economic data are appreci-ated and economics is more closely integrated into the development of and justi"cation for estimators,then the gap between econometric theory and applied work will diminish and econometrics will reassert itself as an important part of the corpus of economics.ReferencesAngrist,D.,Imbens,G.,ment on James J.Heckman,Instrumental Variables:A study of implicit behavioral assumptions used in making program evaluations.Journal of Human Resources34(4),823}827.Heckman,J.,1999.Instrumental variables:response to Angrist and Imbens.Journal of Human Resources34(3),828}837.Heckman,J.,2000.Causal parameters and policy analysis in economics:A twentieth century retrospective.The Quarterly Journal of Economics vol.CVX,45}97.Heckman,J.,LaLonde,R.,Smith,J.,1999a.The Economics and Econometrics of Active Labor Market Programs.In:Orley,Ashenfelter,Card,(Eds.),Handbook of Labor Economics.Vol.3.North-Holland,Amsterdam,1999(Chapter31).Heckman,J.,Lochner,L.,Taber,C.,1999b.General Equilibrium Cost Bene"t Analysis of Education and Tax Policies.In:Ranis,G.,Raut,L.K.(Eds.),Trade,Growth and Development:Essays in Honor of T.N.Srinivasan.Elsevier,Amsterdam,pp.291}393,(Chapter14).Heckman,J.,Smith,J.,1998.Evaluating the welfare state.In:Strom,S.(Ed.),Econometrics and Economic Theory in the20th Century,Econometric Society Monograph Series,Vol.31, Cambridge,Cambridge University Press.Heckman,J.,Vytlacil,2001.Econometric Evaluation of Social programs,forthcoming,In:Heck-man,J.J.,Leamer,E.(Eds.),Handbook of Econometrics,Vol.V.North-Holland,Amsterdam. Holland,P.W.,1986.Statistics and causal inference.Journal of the American Statistical Association 81(396),945}970.Pearl,J.,2000.Causality.Cambridge University Press,Cambridge.Rubin,D.,1978.Bayesian inference for causal e!ects:the role of randomization.Annals of Statistics VI,34}58.。