Quantification of effects of climate variations and human activities
effects of climate change
Effects of Climate ChangeHow will climate change effect us, there are many factors that will be affected by climate change including rising sea levels, drought and loss of agricultural land.Increasing temperatures caused by climate change will make the water of the oceans expand; ice melting in the Antarctic and Greenland will also contribute to the sea level. Sea levels could rise by as much as 25 to 50 cm, by 2100. Greater sea levels will threaten the low-lying coastal areas such as the Netherlands and Bangladesh, millions of areas of land will be at danger from flooding; causing people to leave their homes. Low lying areas in cities will be hugely affected by the rising sea.Changes in weather will affect many crops grown around world. Crops such as wheat and rice grow well in high temperatures, while plants such as maize and sugarcane prefer cooler climates. Changes in rainfall patterns will also affect how well plants and crops grow. The effect of a change in the weather on plant growth may lead to some countries not having enough food. Brazil, parts of Africa, south-east Asia and China will be affected the most and many people could be affected by hunger.All across the world, there is a big demand for water and in many regions, such as the central and eastern Africa there is not enough water for the people. Changes in the climate will change the weather patterns and will bring more rain in some countries, but others will have less rain, generally dry areas will become drier and wet areas could become wetter.As climate change takes place, our daily weather and normal temperatures will change, the homes of plants and animals will be affected all over the world. Polar bears and seals are a good example of animals that will be affected by climate change, they will have to find new land for hunting and living, if the ice in the Arctic melts, but the fact is more real that these species could become extinct.Climate changes will affect everyone, but some populations will be at greater risk. Countries whose coastal regions have a large population, such as Egypt and China, may have to move whole populations inland to avoid flooding. The effect on people will depend on how well we can adapt to the changes and how much we can do to reduce climate change in the world.。
The effects of climate change
Climate change is a significant and rapidly growing global issue that is having major impacts on the environment, economy, and human health. The effects of climate change are wide-ranging and can be felt across the world, with consequences including extreme weather events, rising sea levels, and changes in ecosystems. In this essay, we will explore the various effects of climate change and their implications for our planet.One of the most visible effects of climate change is the increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. Heatwaves, droughts, hurricanes, and heavy rainfall are becoming more common, leading to widespread devastation and loss of life. These extreme weather events are particularly harmful to vulnerable populations and have a significant economic impact, as infrastructure and agriculture are often damaged or destroyed.Rising sea levels are another consequence of climate change, driven by the melting of polar ice caps and glaciers. As sea levels continue to rise, coastal areas and low-lying islands are at risk of being inundated, leading to displacement of communities and loss of valuable land. Additionally, saltwater intrusion into coastal aquifers can contaminate freshwater sources, impacting both human and ecological systems.Changes in ecosystems are also a significant effect of climate change, with shifts in temperature and precipitation patterns altering habitats and disrupting species' life cycles. This can lead to loss of biodiversity, as some species are unable to adapt to changing conditions and face extinction. In addition, thespread of invasive species and diseases can further destabilize ecosystems, leading to negative impacts on agriculture and food security.The effects of climate change extend beyond the environment and into the realm of human health. Rising temperatures can exacerbate air pollution and worsen respiratory conditions, while changes in precipitation patterns can lead to waterborne diseases and food insecurity. Additionally, extreme weather events can cause physical injury and mental health issues, particularly for those who are displaced or directly impacted by disasters.The economic impact of climate change is substantial, with costs associated with extreme weather events, loss of infrastructure, and damage to agriculture and fisheries. This can strain national economies and lead to increased poverty and inequality, particularly in developing countries that lack the resources to adapt to and mitigate the effects of climate change.In response to the effects of climate change, it is crucial that we take action to reduce our greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to the changes that are already occurring. This includes transitioning to renewable energy sources, improving energy efficiency, and implementing policies to reduce deforestation and promote sustainable land use. Additionally, it is important to invest in climate-resilient infrastructure and technologies, and to support vulnerable communities in adapting to the impacts of climate change.In conclusion, the effects of climate change are far-reaching and have significant implications for the environment, economy, and human health.Addressing this global challenge requires urgent and coordinated action at all levels, from individual efforts to national and international policies. By working together to mitigate the effects of climate change and adapt to its impacts, we can build a more sustainable and resilient future for our planet.。
英语环境科学英语40题
英语环境科学英语40题1. Which of the following is a renewable resource?A. CoalB. OilC. WindD. Natural gas答案：C。
本题考查可再生资源的概念。
选项 A 煤炭、选项 B 石油和选项 D 天然气都是不可再生资源，而选项 C 风能是可再生资源。
2. What causes air pollution?A. PlantsB. Clean waterC. Factory emissionsD. Beautiful scenery答案：C。
本题考查造成空气污染的原因。
选项A 植物有助于净化空气；选项 B 清洁的水与空气污染无关；选项 D 美丽的风景也不会导致空气污染；而选项C 工厂排放物会造成空气污染。
3. Which of the following is not a way to save water?A. Taking short showersB. Leaving the tap runningC. Fixing leaky faucetsD. Using a bucket to wash the car答案：B。
本题考查节约用水的方法。
选项 A 缩短淋浴时间、选项 C 修理漏水的水龙头和选项 D 用桶洗车都是节约用水的方式；选项B 让水龙头一直开着会浪费水。
4. What is the main cause of deforestation?A. Planting more treesB. Building housesC. WildfiresD. Logging for wood答案：D。
本题考查森林砍伐的主要原因。
选项A 种植更多树木是保护森林；选项B 建造房屋不是主要原因；选项C 野火可能导致部分树木受损，但不是主要的砍伐原因；选项D 为获取木材而伐木是导致森林砍伐的主要原因。
5. Which of the following is a greenhouse gas?A. OxygenB. NitrogenC. Carbon dioxideD. Hydrogen答案：C。
The Effects of Climate Change on Ocean Ecosystems
The Effects of Climate Change on OceanEcosystemsClimate change has had a significant impact on ocean ecosystems around the world. The rise in global temperatures has led to a variety of changes in the oceans, including rising sea levels, ocean acidification, and changes in ocean currents. These changes have had a profound effect on the plants and animals that call the ocean home, and have also impacted the millions of people who depend on the ocean for their livelihoods. One of the most significant effects of climate change on ocean ecosystems is the rise in sea levels. As global temperatures rise, the polar ice caps and glaciers are melting at an accelerated rate, causing thesea levels to rise. This has led to the loss of coastal habitats and the displacement of many species that rely on these habitats for survival. In addition, the rise in sea levels has also led to increased coastal erosion and flooding, which has had a devastating impact on coastal communities around the world. Another major impact of climate change on ocean ecosystems is ocean acidification. The increase in carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere has led to higher levelsof carbon dioxide being absorbed by the oceans, which has caused the pH of the oceans to decrease. This has had a detrimental effect on many marine species, particularly those with calcium carbonate shells, such as corals and shellfish. Ocean acidification has also had a negative impact on the food web in the oceans, as it has affected the ability of many species to find food and reproduce.Climate change has also led to changes in ocean currents, which has had a significant impact on marine life. Ocean currents play a crucial role inregulating the temperature and distributing nutrients throughout the oceans. However, the rise in global temperatures has led to changes in these currents, which has disrupted the natural balance of many ocean ecosystems. This has led to changes in the distribution of marine species, as well as changes in theavailability of food and other resources. The effects of climate change on ocean ecosystems have not only had a profound impact on marine life, but have also affected the millions of people who depend on the ocean for their livelihoods. Many coastal communities rely on the ocean for fishing and tourism, and thechanges in ocean ecosystems have had a devastating impact on these industries. In addition, the loss of coastal habitats and the increase in coastal erosion has led to the displacement of many people from their homes, causing social and economic upheaval. In conclusion, the effects of climate change on ocean ecosystems arefar-reaching and have had a profound impact on marine life and coastal communities. It is crucial that we take action to mitigate the effects of climate change and protect the oceans and the millions of people who depend on them for their livelihoods. Only by working together to address the root causes of climate change can we hope to preserve the health and diversity of ocean ecosystems for future generations.。
The-Effects-of-Climate-Change-on-Ocean-Ecosystems
The Effects of Climate Change on OceanEcosystemsClimate change is a phenomenon that has been affecting various aspects of our planet, including ocean ecosystems. The continuous increase in greenhouse gas emissions has led to rising sea levels, warming oceans, and ocean acidification, which have all had significant impacts on marine life. In this essay, we will delve into the effects of climate change on ocean ecosystems from different perspectives. The first perspective we will consider is that of marine life. The warming of the oceans has led to significant changes in the behavior and patterns of marine species. For instance, some species have been forced to migrate to cooler waters, while others have altered their breeding seasons and migration patterns. The warming of the oceans has also led to coral bleaching, which has devastating effects on the ecosystem. Coral reefs support a significant proportion of marine biodiversity and provide habitats for numerous species. The death of coral reefs could lead to the extinction of many marine species, which could have catastrophic effects on the ecosystem. The second perspective we will consider is that of humans. The effects of climate change on ocean ecosystems have significant implications for human life. For example, the loss of coral reefs could lead to the loss of livelihoods for millions of people who rely on fishing and tourism. Additionally, the warming of the oceans could lead to the spread of diseases, which could have devastating effects on human health. The rise in sea levels could also lead to the displacement of millions of people living in coastal areas. The third perspective we will consider is that of policymakers. Climate change is a global issue that requires collective action from policymakers. The effects of climate change on ocean ecosystems should be a key consideration in policymaking. Policymakers should develop policies that promote the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and the protection of marine ecosystems. Additionally, policies should be put in place to ensure that the impacts of climate change on marine life are mitigated, and that affected communities are supported. The fourth perspective we will consider is that of the economy. The effects of climate change on ocean ecosystems could have significant economic implications. For instance, the loss ofcoral reefs could lead to a decline in tourism, which could have a ripple effect on the economy. Additionally, the loss of marine biodiversity could lead to a decline in fish stocks, which could have significant implications for the fishing industry. However, there are also economic opportunities that could arise from the mitigation of climate change. For instance, the development of renewable energy could create new job opportunities and stimulate economic growth. The fifth perspective we will consider is that of future generations. The effects of climate change on ocean ecosystems could have long-term implications for future generations. The loss of marine biodiversity could lead to the extinction of many species, which could have irreversible effects on the ecosystem. Additionally, the rise in sea levels could lead to the displacement of millions of people, which could have significant social and economic implications. It is therefore important that we take action to mitigate the effects of climate change on ocean ecosystems to ensure that future generations inherit a healthy and sustainable planet. In conclusion, climate change has had significant effects on ocean ecosystems, affecting marine life, humans, policymakers, the economy, and future generations. It is therefore important that we take collective action to mitigate the effects of climate change on ocean ecosystems. This can be achieved through the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, the protection of marine ecosystems, the development of policies that support affected communities, and the exploration of economic opportunities that arise from the mitigation of climate change. By taking action, we can ensure that our planet remains healthy and sustainable for generations to come.。
The Effects of Climate Change on Human Rights
The Effects of Climate Change on Human Rights Climate change is one of the most significant challenges facing humanity today. It is a global phenomenon that affects every aspect of our lives, from the food we eat to the air we breathe. Climate change is caused by a range of factors, including human activities such as burning fossil fuels, deforestation, and agriculture. The effects of climate change are far-reaching and have the potential to impact human rights in many ways.One of the most significant impacts of climate change on human rights is the threat to the right to life. Climate change is causing more frequent and severe natural disasters such as floods, hurricanes, and droughts. These disasters can result in the loss of life, displacement of communities, and destruction of homes and infrastructure. The most vulnerable communities, such as those living in poverty or in low-lying areas, are often the most affected by these disasters, putting their right to life at risk.Another human right that is threatened by climate change is the right to health. Climate change is causing an increase in air pollution, which can lead to respiratory diseases such as asthma and lung cancer. Extreme heatwaves can also cause heatstroke and other heat-related illnesses. In addition, climate change is leading to the spread of diseases such as malaria and dengue fever, which are carried by mosquitoes that thrive in warmer temperatures.Climate change is also affecting the right to food. Changes in temperature and rainfall patterns are affecting crop yields, leading to food shortages and higher prices. This is particularly affecting small-scale farmers who rely on rain-fed agriculture. In addition, climate change is affecting the availability of fish, which is a vital source of protein for many communities around the world.The right to water is also being threatened by climate change. Changes in rainfall patterns are affecting the availability of water in many regions, leading to water scarcity and drought. This is particularly affecting communities in arid and semi-arid regions, where water is already scarce. In addition, rising sea levels are contaminating freshwater sources with saltwater, making it more difficult for communities to access safe drinking water.Finally, climate change is affecting the right to housing. Natural disasters such as floods and hurricanes are destroying homes and infrastructure, leaving communities without shelter. In addition, rising sea levels are causing coastal erosion, which is threatening the homes of millions of people around the world. This is particularly affecting communities in low-lying areas such as small island states.In conclusion, climate change is having a significant impact on human rights. It is threatening the right to life, health, food, water, and housing. The most vulnerable communities are often the most affected by these impacts, putting their human rights at risk. It is essential that we take urgent action to address climate change and protect the human rights of all people, particularly those who are most vulnerable. This requires a global effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, adapt to the impacts of climate change, and support those who are most affected by its impacts.。
斯特恩报告
斯特恩报告要点:科学证据现在不容置疑：气候变化是对全球的严重威胁，急需做出全球反应。
这份独立的回顾由财政大臣指示编写，并向大臣和首相报告。
本回顾为评估证据，建立对气候变化经济内涵的理解做出了贡献。
本回顾首先分析了关于气候变化本身的经济影响的证据，并探索了稳定大气中的温室气体的经济内涵。
本回顾的第二部分考虑的是复杂的政策挑战：在向低碳经济转变中，在保证社会能够适应已经无法避免的气候变化的后果中都有复杂的政策挑战。
本回顾采用了国际视角。
气候变化的原因及后果都是全球性的，只有采取国际集体行动，才能在所需规模上做出有实效的、有效率的和公平的回应。
回应要求在多个领域中进行更有深度的国际合作，最明显的是建立碳的价格信号和市场，刺激科技研究、发展和应用，推广适应，发展中国家尤其应该这样做。
气候变化在经济学上提出了独一无二的挑战：这是迄今为止规模最大、范围最广的市场失灵现象。
因此经济分析必须是涵盖全球，着眼长期，把风险和不确定的经济因素摆在中心，并考虑发生重大的、非边际变化的可能。
为了达到这些要求，本回顾采用了经济学大部分领域的思想和手法，其中包括很多最新的发展成果。
在气候变化问题上尽早采取有力行动的收益大于成本我们现在开始的行动需要很长时间才会对未来气候变化产生影响。
我们现在的行动只能对未来40 到50 年的气候产生有限的影响。
但是从另一方面看，我们在今后10 年20 年的行为将对本世纪后50 年和下个世纪的气候产生深远的影响。
虽然没有人可以完全肯定地预测气候变化的后果，但是我们现在有足够的信息，知道这些风险。
缓解，也就是采取有力的行动减少排放，必须被看成是一种投资，是一种为了避免在现在和未来数十年里产生非常严重后果的风险所需要的成本。
如果投资明智的话，这些成本就是可以掌控的；而且在整个过程中还有非常广泛的增长和发展机会。
如果要实现这个目标，就必须让政策带来良好的市场信号，克服市场失灵，并把公平和缓解风险作为核心。
应用奇异值分解的海上场景显著性检测
关键词： 奇异值分解 ； 显著性检测； 海上场景； 空间域全局显著性 文章编 号：０２８３ （０２ ２．１１ ４ 文献标识码： 中图分类号 ：Ｐ ９ ． １０ —３ ｌ２ １） ， 于 自然场 景和 陆上场 景 中显著 性检 测 关 问题 引起 了很 多 学 者 的 关 注 ， 别 是 在 目标 检 测 、 特
摘 要 ： 出一种应用奇异值分解的海上场景显著性检 测方 法。提取 海上场景 图像 中颜 色和亮度各通道特 提 征， 并对各其分别进行奇异值分解， 根据设定的阈值 ， 选择各特征的典型分量。各特征的粗显著 图定义为各特
征和其典型分量的差。为进一步去除海杂波等干扰 ， 在粗显著 图中， 计算其 空间域全局显著性 ， 以此形成显著 性 图 。得 到 的颜 色通道 和 亮度 通道 显著 图通过 线 性合 并 为总显 著 图。利 用海 上 场景 图像 进行 了实验 ， 果表 结
ａ ｄＡ ｐｉａｉｎ， ０ ２ ４ （ ３ ：６ —６ ． ｎ ｐ ｌ ｔ ｓ ２ １ ， ８ ２ ） １ １１ ４ ｃ ｏ
Ａｂ ｔａ ｔ Ａ ａｉｎ ｙ ｄ ｔｃｉｎ ｍｅｈ ｄ ｆ ｒｓａｖ ｓ ａ ｃ ｎ ｓｎ ｉｇ ｌｒ ｌｅＣｏ ｏ ｉｏ Ｓ ｓｒ ｃ ： ｓｌ ｃ ｅｅ ｔ ｔｏ ｏ ｅ ｉ ｌ ｅ ｅｕ ｉｇ Ｓｎ ｕａ ｕ ｍｐ ｓ ｉｎ（ ＶＤ）ｉ ｒｐ ｓ ｄ ｅ ｏ ｕ ｓ Ｖａ ｔ ｓｐ ｏ ｏ ｅ ．
ｃ ｐ ｒ ｉｅ ｒ ｏ ｉｅ ｏａ ｈｅ ｅｔｅｍａ ｔｒｍａ ． ｐ ｒ ｎ ｓａｅｍａ ｅｗｉ ｇ ｓｔ ｈ ｗ ｈ ａｉｉ ｙ ｍａ ｓａｅｌ ａｌ ｃ ｍｂｎ ｄ ｔ ｃ ｉｖ ｈ ｓｅ ｐ Ｅｘ ｅｉ ｔ ｒ ｄ ｔ ｉ ｎ ｙ ｍｅ ｈ ｍａ ｅ ｏ ｓ ｏ ｔｅｖ ｌ ｔ ｄｙ
温室气体 产品碳足迹 量化要求和指南
温室气体产品碳足迹量化要求和指南Greenhouse gas products carbon footprint quantification requirements and guidelines 温室气体产品碳足迹的量化要求和指南The issue of greenhouse gas emissions and their impact on the environment has become a pressing concern in recent years. As the world continues to grapple with climate change and its associated challenges, there is an increasing need to quantify the carbon footprint of products and services in order to better understand and mitigate their environmental impact. 温室气体排放及其对环境的影响已成为近年来一个紧迫的问题。
随着世界继续应对气候变化及其相关挑战，有必要逐渐量化产品和服务的碳足迹，以更好地了解并减少它们对环境的影响。
One perspective on this issue is the need for standardized guidelines and methodologies for quantifying the carbon footprint of products. Currently, there is a lack of consistency and transparency in the way carbon footprints are calculated, making it difficult for consumersand businesses to make informed decisions about their purchases and investments. Establishing clear, universally accepted guidelines and methodologies for carbon footprint quantification would notonly provide clarity and guidance for stakeholders, but also ensure that the information being communicated is accurate and reliable. 针对此问题的一个视角是需要标准化的指南和方法来量化产品的碳足迹。
英语23考研真题试卷
英语23考研真题试卷一、阅读理解（共40分）阅读下列四篇文章，回答后面的问题。
AThe rise of the internet has transformed the way we communicate, work, and learn. With the increase in online platforms, remote work has become a viable option for many professionals. However, there are still challenges that need to be addressed to make remote work more efficient and effective.1. What are the benefits of remote work?2. What are the challenges faced by remote workers?3. How can companies support remote work?BGlobalization has led to the exchange of cultures, goods, and ideas across borders. While this has many positive aspects,it also brings about certain challenges. The article discusses the impact of globalization on local economies and cultures.4. What are the positive effects of globalization?5. What are the negative effects of globalization?6. How can countries balance the benefits and drawbacks of globalization?CArtificial intelligence (AI) is rapidly advancing and has the potential to revolutionize various industries. However,ethical concerns about AI are also growing, especially regarding privacy and job displacement.7. What are the potential applications of AI in different sectors?8. What ethical concerns are associated with AI?9. How can we address the ethical concerns related to AI?DClimate change is one of the most pressing issues of our time. It affects ecosystems, weather patterns, and poses a threatto human societies. The article explores the causes ofclimate change and potential solutions.10. What are the main causes of climate change?11. What are the consequences of climate change for the environment and human societies?12. What can be done to mitigate the effects of climate change?二、完型填空（共20分）Read the following passage and fill in the blanks with the appropriate words.In recent years, the popularity of electric vehicles (EVs)has been growing steadily. They are seen as a cleaner alternative to traditional gasoline-powered cars. However, there are still some issues that need to be resolved beforethey can become the dominant mode of transportation.[Your text here]三、翻译（共20分）Translate the following sentences from English to Chinese.13. The rapid development of technology has brought about significant changes in our daily lives.14. The government is considering implementing new policiesto reduce air pollution.15. It is essential to maintain a balance between economic growth and environmental protection.四、写作（共20分）Write an essay of about 200 words on the topic "TheImportance of Cultural Exchange."[Your essay here]结束语：The English 23 postgraduate entrance examination paper aimsto assess the comprehensive English proficiency of candidates, including reading, writing, translation, and vocabularyskills. It is crucial to practice regularly and familiarize oneself with the format and types of questions to performwell in the exam. Good luck to all the candidates preparingfor the English section of their postgraduate exams.。
夏季东亚副热带西风急流特征指数表征方法对比分析
夏季东亚副热带西风急流特征指数表征方法对比分析闫彩霞;金荣花【摘要】为了能够给科研工作者和业务技术人员合理使用各种东亚副热带西风急流表征方法提供科学依据,利用1960～2009年NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和中国714个基准站20时(北京时)降水观测资料,归纳总结了以往夏季东亚副热带西风急流客观定量表征方法,并以2005年6～8月为例,进行了表征方法的数值反演和性能分析,结果表明:表征位置指数的方法有轴线法、EOF分解法、区域风速差法.轴线法定义合理且有明确的物理意义,方法简单易行、意义清晰、表现直观,适用于逐日实时监测和诊断分析.EOF分解法与区域风速差法适用于气候评估和季节诊断;表征急流强度的方法有区域风速法及中心强度法,均适应于逐日实时监测与环流观测,且对华北地区及长江中下游雨量多寡有较好的指示意义,方法计算简便、意义清晰、指示性好.同时还指出,业务工作者和科研工作者实际应用时应根据需求合理选择指数或者对指数进行适当改进.%In order to provide scientific basis for investigators and operation departments to use a variety of methods to characterize East Asian subtropical westerly jet (EASWJ) reasonably. Using the reanalysis data during 1960~2009 from NCEP/NCAR and China 714 stations daily precipitation data(Beijing time), taking cases in 2005 for example, characteristic indexes of EASWJ are studied, retrieved numerically and compared based on summary of existing objective, quantitative EASWJ methods. The results show that: there are many methods to characterize the position index such as axis index method, EOF decomposition method and Regional wind speed difference method. The axis index method is defined reasonable, simple, and has clear physicalmeaning and intuitive performance. It applies to daily real-time monitoring and diagnostic analysis. EOF and Regional wind speed difference method apply to Climate Assessment and Seasonal diagnosis; there are two methods, Regional wind speed and the central intensity, to characterize the intensity index. They are fit to daily real-time monitoring and Circulation observation and have good meaning to Rainfall amount of the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and North China. The methods are objective and quantificational, simple, clear meaning, and good indicative. At the same time, we point that based on what merits and demerits of these EASWJ indexes have, investigators and operation departments should apply EASWJ indexes better if they can select compatible one or improve and innovate a method according to there selves practice.【期刊名称】《成都信息工程学院学报》【年(卷),期】2012(027)003【总页数】7页(P285-291)【关键词】大气科学;天气气候;东亚副热带急流;特征指数【作者】闫彩霞;金荣花【作者单位】成都信息工程学院大气科学学院,四川成都610225;国家气象中心,北京100081【正文语种】中文【中图分类】P4420 引言在南、北半球副热带地区对流层上部各存在着一支强而窄的高速气流带,称之为副热带西风急流,其位置的南北移动以及强度的异常可以引起大范围的环流异常,进而导致中国乃至东亚地区天气气候异常,与东亚大气环流的季节转换、亚洲夏季风的爆发、中国东部地区夏季降水等有着密切的联系[1-8]。
生态环境既有价值又是无价申论英语作文
生态环境既有价值又是无价申论英语作文全文共3篇示例，供读者参考篇1The Environment Has Both Value and is PricelessOur natural environment is truly priceless. It provides the very foundation for all life on Earth - the air we breathe, the water we drink, the food we eat. And yet, we often take it for granted, treating it as just another resource to be exploited for profit or convenience. But the environment also has immense economic value that we cannot afford to ignore.As students, we've been taught about the vital role nature plays in sustaining human civilization. The plants convert carbon dioxide into oxygen through photosynthesis, while animals play crucial roles in pollinating crops, controlling pests, and supporting the overall balance of ecosystems. We need healthy environments to grow the food required to feed billions of people worldwide.Simply put, we could not survive without nature's gifts. And the costs of environmental damage and depletion of natural resources are staggering. Poor air quality from pollution causesmillions of premature deaths each year and costs the global economy trillions in healthcare costs. Water scarcity, exacerbated by climate change, threatens food supplies for millions. Deforestation destroys vital carbon sinks while endangering biodiversity that could hold the key to future medicines or other innovations.The economic impacts are devastating, both now and projected into the future if we fail to protect our environment. A recent study estimated that natural capital costs the world around 7.3 trillion per year due to land degradation, pollution, climate change and other environmental challenges. And those figures don't account for the priceless value of animal and plant species we are driving to extinction.We've seen the repercussions of unchecked environmental damage play out with droughts, famine, mass human migration and conflicts over dwindling natural resources like water and fertile land. The degradation and destruction of our natural world imposes calamitous economic costs while destabilizing societies. Truly, we cannot put a price tag on the environment - it is invaluable to human health, prosperity and security.At the same time, the environment also embodies immense potential economic value that we are just beginning tounderstand and quantify. The services provided by healthy ecosystems have been estimated to be worth trillions per year globally. Forests help control floods and erosion while boosting rainfall and oxygen production. Coastlines and wetlands buffer communities from storms and tidal surges. Biodiversity provides genetic resources for agriculture, medicine and other products.We are slowly making progress in recognizing nature's economic value and incorporating environmental accounting into national policies, corporate strategies and investment decisions. Countries from Colombia to India have implemented natural capital accounts to better measure their natural resource stocks and evaluate investment tradeoffs. Leading companies like Unilever are increasingly considering environmental impacts across their supply chains and operations.On an individual level, we are feeling the economic impacts in our daily lives as well - from higher food and energy costs to increased insurance premiums to pay for damages from wildfires, hurricanes and other climate change-fueled disasters. Protecting the environment makes fiscal sense when we tally up the costs of destroying ecosystems versus preserving them.Beyond its economic role, the environment holds priceless cultural, spiritual and recreational value. Indigenouscommunities have maintained deep connections with the land and nature for centuries, with traditions and wisdom that can help guide environmental stewardship. Sacred groves, rivers and mountains provide a sense of place and identity woven into the fabric of many cultures and societies.For many of us, the environment enriches our lives from childhood on through experiences like hiking, camping, swimming, bird watching and many other outdoor pursuits that nourish our physical and mental well-being. Time spent outdoors instills us with a sense of awe at the wonders of the natural world and humility at the vastness of forces at work shaping our planet's land, water and atmosphere.We inherently understand the intrinsic value of unspoiled landscapes, abundant wildlife and vibrant ecosystems. The sights, sounds and smells of a lush forest, the majesty of looming mountain peaks or the serenity of a babbling brook nourish the soul in ways that transcend economic metrics. To destroy these precious natural wonders is to sever a core part of our humanity and heritage.At the same time, the environment directly provides many critical services that underpin our economy and sustain human life - fertile soil, breathable air, drinkable water, pollination ofcrops, climate regulation and flood control, just to name a few. Traditional economics and accounting practices have failed to properly value these services provided by healthy, functioning ecosystems.As we look ahead to the challenges of the 21st century - climate change, resource scarcity, biodiversity loss, pollution and more - we must evolve our relationship with the natural world and recognize both its priceless intrinsic value and vast economic worth. Any credible path forward requires protecting and restoring vital ecosystems for the benefit of current and future generations.To start, we need to account for nature's contributions through environmental economics, natural capital valuation and ecosystem services mapping and quantification. This detailed data can then inform smarter, more sustainable decision-making by governments, businesses, investors and communities.We should scale up investments in conservation, reforestation, pollution control, renewable energy and other environmental initiatives - recognizing that these are not economic costs, but vital investments that will pay dividends for decades to come. We need to stop perpetuating the folly of infinite growth on a finite planet and instead embracesustainability and a circular economy built on renewable resources.Protecting the environment is an ethical and existential imperative, but it is also financially prudent. It safeguards the natural assets and ecosystem services that underpin our prosperity while mitigating future economic risks and costs from pollution, climate change and depleted resources. Simply put, we cannot maintain healthy communities, societies and economies without a healthy environment. It is both priceless and incredibly valuable.As students, it is our responsibility to become the next generation of environmental stewards and champions. We must elevate sustainability as a core priority across all sectors and systems - from energy and agriculture to urban planning and transportation. Our voices and actions today will shape the trajectory for people and planet tomorrow.We are the first generations facing the realities of climate change and environmental degradation in such an acute way. But we can also become the generations that halt this destructive inertia, recalibrate humanity's relationship with nature, and pass on a living planet teeming with awe-inspiring biodiversity to those who follow. The future of all life is in our hands - andembracing the full value and priceless worth of our natural environment has never been more critical.篇2The Priceless Yet Invaluable Ecological EnvironmentOur planet's ecological environment is a precious, intricate tapestry woven by nature over billions of years. It sustains all life forms, from the tiniest microorganisms to the mightiest creatures that roam the earth. While we can attempt to quantify its economic value, the ecological environment possesses an inherent, immeasurable worth that transcends monetary calculations. It is a priceless treasure that we must cherish and protect for the sake of our very existence and the well-being of future generations.The ecological environment encompasses a vast array of interconnected systems, each playing a vital role in maintaining the delicate balance of our planet. From the air we breathe to the water we drink, from the fertile soil that nourishes our crops to the intricate web of biodiversity, every element is indispensable. It is a symphony of life, where every note and every pause contribute to the harmonious melody that sustains us all.Yet, in our pursuit of progress and development, we have often overlooked the true value of this ecological treasure. We have exploited its resources with reckless abandon, driven by short-term gains and a myopic view of prosperity. Deforestation, pollution, and the relentless destruction of natural habitats have left deep scars on the face of our planet, threatening the very systems that support our existence.It is time for us to recognize that the ecological environment is not a commodity to be traded or bartered but a sacred trust that we hold for generations to come. Its value cannot be reduced to mere numbers on a balance sheet, for it is the very foundation upon which all life rests. It is the source of our sustenance, our breathable air, our drinkable water, and the fertile lands that yield our food. Without a healthy and thriving ecological environment, our economies, our societies, and our very existence would crumble.The true worth of the ecological environment lies in its ability to sustain life itself. It is the cradle of biodiversity, a rich tapestry of interconnected species that have evolved over millions of years, each playing a crucial role in the intricate web of life. From the humble bees that pollinate our crops to the majestic whales that regulate the ocean's nutrient cycles, everyorganism contributes to the delicate balance that allows our planet to flourish.Moreover, the ecological environment holds immense cultural, spiritual, and aesthetic value that enriches our lives in ways that cannot be quantified. It is a source of inspiration for artists, writers, and poets, who have drawn from its beauty and majesty for centuries. It is a sanctuary for those seeking solace and connection with nature, a place where the soul can find respite from the relentless pace of modern life.Yet, as we grapple with the consequences of our actions, we are confronted with the reality that the ecological environment is not an inexhaustible resource. Its resilience has limits, and the repercussions of our disregard for its well-being are becoming increasingly evident. Climate change, biodiversity loss, and environmental degradation are not mere abstract concepts but tangible threats that endanger our very existence.It is incumbent upon us, as stewards of this planet, to recognize the priceless value of the ecological environment and take decisive action to protect and restore it. We must embrace sustainable practices, reduce our ecological footprint, and prioritize the preservation of our natural heritage. It is not achoice but a moral imperative, for the consequences of inaction will be borne by generations to come.In the end, the true value of the ecological environment cannot be measured in dollars or pounds, but in the quality of life it bestows upon us and the legacy we leave for future generations. It is a priceless inheritance, a gift from nature that we must cherish, nurture, and protect with unwavering vigilance.As students, we have a pivotal role to play in this endeavor. We are the torchbearers of change, the generation that will shape the future of our planet. It is our responsibility to educate ourselves, to challenge the status quo, and to demand action from our leaders and policymakers. We must be the voices of reason, advocating for sustainable practices, promoting environmental consciousness, and inspiring others to join us in this noble cause.Let us embrace the ecological environment not just as a resource to be exploited, but as a sacred trust to be protected and preserved. For in its embrace lies the key to our survival, the well-being of countless species, and the perpetuation of the intricate tapestry of life that sustains us all. The ecological environment is truly priceless, yet its value to our existence is immeasurable.篇3The Ecological Environment: A Priceless Treasure We Can't Afford to LoseAs a student, I've always been taught about the importance of the environment and how we need to protect it. But it's one of those things that's easy to brush off as just something adults like to lecture us about, you know? Like yeah, yeah, we get it - recycling, turning off lights, blah blah blah. But the more I learn, the more I realize this is anything but a boring, irrelevant topic. The ecological environment isn't just some tough outdoorsy stuff. It's the air we breathe, the water we drink, the soil that grows our food. It's everything, really. And we're treating it like trash.I get that money talks in our society. Companies want to make profits, governments want economic growth, and we all want the latest cool gadgets and toys. But at what cost? Destroying rainforests for resources? Polluting our air and water in the name of "progress"? Pushing amazing species into extinction? It's a vicious cycle of greed ruining the natural systems that allow us to live on this planet to begin with.The worst part is, we act like we can just put a price tag on nature and that makes it ok to exploit it. We try to calculate the dollar value of clean air or put a number on how much an acre of forest is "worth." Newsflash: the ecological environment is priceless. You can't slap a price sticker on something that's fundamenally priceless and then sell it off to the highest bidder like it's a product at a store. It just doesn't work that way.At the same time, I get the other side of the argument. Nobody wants to go back to living in huts and hunting with spears. Economic development and technological progress have allowed us to live longer。
温室气体 产品碳足迹 量化要求和指南
温室气体产品碳足迹量化要求和指南The issue of greenhouse gas emissions and carbon footprints has gained significant attention in recent years. As the awareness of climate change continues to grow, it has become increasingly important for organizations and individuals to understand and quantify their carbon footprints. This is where the concept of greenhouse gas accounting comes into play.碳足迹问题与温室气体排放密切相关，近年来备受关注。
随着人们对气候变化的认识不断增强，组织和个人了解和量化自己的碳足迹变得越来越重要。
这就是温室气体核算概念的应用所在。
Greenhouse gas accounting involves measuring and tracking the amount of greenhouse gases emitted directly orindirectly by an entity or activity. It provides a comprehensive analysis of the carbon footprint associated with various processes, products, or services. By quantifying greenhouse gas emissions, organizations can identify areas for improvement and implement strategies to reduce their carbon footprint.温室气体核算包括测量和跟踪实体或活动直接或间接排放的温室气体数量。
温室气体产品碳足迹量化与通报要求及指南
温室气体产品碳足迹量化与通报要求及指南The quantification and reporting requirements for carbon footprints of greenhouse gas products are of great importance. It is crucial to accurately measure and disclose the amount of greenhouse gases emitted throughout the lifecycle of a product, from raw material extraction to manufacturing, distribution, and eventual disposal. This helps identify opportunities for reducing emissions and allows consumers to make informed decisions based on the environmental impact of their purchasing choices.温室气体产品碳足迹量化和通报要求非常重要。
准确测量和披露产品在整个生命周期中排放的温室气体量，从原材料提取到制造、分发再到最终处理，对于确定减排机会，并让消费者基于购买选择的环境影响做出明智决策非常重要。
To ensure consistent and standardized carbon footprint quantification and reporting, various guidelines and frameworks have been developed. One such framework is the Greenhouse Gas Protocol established by the World ResourcesInstitute (WRI) and World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD). This protocol provides a widely accepted methodology to measure and report corporate emissions, including scope 1 (direct emissions), scope 2 (indirect emissions from purchased electricity), and scope 3 (indirect emissions from value chain activities).为了确保一致且标准化的碳足迹量化和通报，已经制定了各种指南和框架。
“碳中和”的概念及影响
“碳中和”的概念及影响The concept of "carbon neutrality" and its implications■文 / 金雅宁2020年9月22日，中国国家主席习近平在第75届联合国大会一般性辩论上宣布，中国将提高国家自主贡献力度，采取更加有力的政策和措施，二氧化碳排放力争于2030年前达到峰值，努力争取2060年前实现碳中和。
这是中国在 《巴黎协定》承诺的基础上，就应对气候变化问题设立的更高目标,表示了中国推进全球应对气候变化进程的决心。
这一承诺的宣布引起了各方的积极评价和关注，也向社会公众引入了一个气候变化领域的重要概念：碳中和。
一、国际背景2015年达成的《巴黎协定》中提出了全球气温升幅控制在工业化前水平以上2℃之内，力争控制在1.5℃之内的全球气温控制目标，并明确这一长期气温目标的实现需要各缔约方尽快达到温室气体排放的峰值，并在21世纪下半叶实现温室气体源的人为排放与汇的清除之间的平衡。
为实现这一目标，要求各国编制、通报并保持其应对气候变化的自主贡献，形成了各国国家自主贡献目标和行动计划为基础的全国家/地区具体表述发布形式中国“努力争取2060年前实现碳中和”第75届联合国大会一般性辩论上的发言欧盟“to achieve climate neutralityin 2050”“there are no net emissions ofgreenhouse gases by 2050”2050年实现气候中和、温室气体的净零排放《欧盟绿色新政》英国“to bring all greenhouse gasemissions to net zero by 2050”2050年实现温室气体的净零排放2019年修订的《气候变化法案》美国“put the United States on anirreversible path to achievenet-zero emissions, economy-wide, by no later than 2050”不晚于2050年，实现净零排放2020年竞选承诺美国加利福尼亚州“to achieve carbon neutralityas soon as possible, and no laterthan 2045”2045年前并尽早实现碳中和2018年签署的行政令加拿大“to achieve net-zero emissionsby 2050”2050年实现净零排放2019年宣布的气候政策日本“2050年までに温室効果ガス排出量を実質ゼロにする”2050年实现温室气体净零排放2020年发表的施政演说表1 国家/地区发布的气候目标情况23封面故事COVER STORY术语来源文件具体表述——《巴黎协定》“t o a c h i e v e a b a l a n c e b e t w e e nanthropogenic emissions by sources andremovals by sinks of greenhouse gasesin the second half of this century”实现温室气体源的人为排放与汇的清除之间的平衡近零排放Near zero emissions 《气候变化2014：减缓气候变化》（I P C C第五次评估报告）“near zero emissions of carbon dioxideand other long-lived greenhouse gasesby the end of the century /globalanthropogenic GHG emissions levels nearzero or below in 2100”没有给出具体定义，但提出了2℃温升目标实现路径，要求到21世纪末实现二氧化碳和其他长寿命温室气体的近零排放（2100年排放水平接近0GtCO2当量或更低）碳中和Carbonneutrality《I P C C全球升温1.5℃特别报告——术语表》The same with “Net zero CO2emissions”与“CO2净零排放”内涵相同CO2净零排放Net zero CO2 emissions Net zero carbon dioxide (CO2) emissionsare achieved when anthropogenic CO2emissions are balanced globally byanthropogenic CO2 removals over aspecified period. Net zero CO2 emissionsare also referred to as carbon neutrality.在规定时期内人为二氧化碳（CO2）移除在全球范围抵消人为CO2排放时，可实现CO2净零排放。
气候变化自然风险评估工作介绍PresentationonPhysical
Agriculture (CAAS)
• 草地畜牧业（中国农业大学）
Grassland-livestock (CAU)
• 水资源（南京水利科学研究院）
Water resources (NHRI)
农业（中国农业科学院）： Agriculture (CAAS)
（1）已经发生的气候变化影响的评价 Phase Ⅰ: Current impact and assessment on climate change
Ⅰ ：农业（宁夏气象研究所）
Ⅰ ： Agriculture (Ningxia Meteorological Research Institute) 目标1：历史气候变化对宁夏农业影响的检测
Objective 1 Analyze the impact of present climate change on agriculture in Ningxia
climate change on pasture livestock production nation wide.
目标3：未来气候对草地畜牧业的影响与风险评估 Objective 3: Assessment of risk of future climate on pasture livestock
目标2：未来气候变化情景下内蒙古草地畜牧业的影响预估 Objective 2 Assess the CC risk impact on grassland-livestock for whole Inner Mongolia grassland under the future climate scenarios
省份1：内蒙古
Province 1： Inner Mongolia
量化气候和土地利用变化对生态资产变化的相对贡献——以房山区为例
第４４卷第８期２０２４年４月生态学报ＡＣＴＡＥＣＯＬＯＧＩＣＡＳＩＮＩＣＡＶｏｌ．４４，Ｎｏ．８Ａｐｒ．，２０２４基金项目：美丽中国生态文明建设科技工程专项（ＸＤＡ２３１００２０２）；中国农业科学院科技创新工程项目收稿日期：２０２３⁃０４⁃１７；㊀㊀网络出版日期：２０２４⁃０１⁃３０∗通讯作者Ｃｏｒｒｅｓｐｏｎｄｉｎｇａｕｔｈｏｒ．Ｅ⁃ｍａｉｌ：ｇｕｆｅｎｇｘｕｅ＠ｃａａｓ．ｃｎＤＯＩ：１０．２０１０３／ｊ．ｓｔｘｂ．２０２３０４１７０７８８王鹤潭，巩贺，黄玫，张远东，孙玮，顾峰雪．量化气候和土地利用变化对生态资产变化的相对贡献 以房山区为例．生态学报，２０２４，４４（８）：３２１３⁃３２２２．ＷａｎｇＨＴ，ＧｏｎｇＨ，ＨｕａｎｇＭ，ＺｈａｎｇＹＤ，ＳｕｎＷ，ＧｕＦＸ．Ｑｕａｎｔｉｆｙｉｎｇｒｅｌａｔｉｖｅｃｏｎｔｒｉｂｕｔｉｏｎｏｆｃｌｉｍａｔｅｃｈａｎｇｅａｎｄｌａｎｄｕｓｅｃｈａｎｇｅｔｏｔｈｅｃｈａｎｇｅｏｆｅｃｏｌｏｇｉｃａｌａｓｓｅｔｓ：ｔａｋｉｎｇＦａｎｇｓｈａｎＤｉｓｔｒｉｃｔａｓａｎｅｘａｍｐｌｅ．ＡｃｔａＥｃｏｌｏｇｉｃａＳｉｎｉｃａ，２０２４，４４（８）：３２１３⁃３２２２．量化气候和土地利用变化对生态资产变化的相对贡献 以房山区为例王鹤潭１，巩㊀贺２，黄㊀玫２，张远东３，孙㊀玮１，顾峰雪１，∗１中国农业科学院农业环境与可持续发展研究所，农业农村部旱作节水农业重点实验室，北京㊀１０００８１２中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所，生态系统网络观测与模拟重点实验室，北京㊀１００１０１３中国林业科学研究院森林生态环境与自然保护研究所，国家林业和草原局森林生态环境重点实验室，北京㊀１０００９１摘要：生态资产与人类福祉密切相关，开展生态资产评估并定量区分气候和人类活动对生态资产变化的相对贡献，对于评估区域生态文明建设成效㊁生态补偿㊁干部离任的自然资产审计等均具有重要意义㊂在单位面积价值当量因子方法的基础上，重新定义了标准生态服务价值当量因子，并构建了一个能够定量区分气候变化和土地利用变化对生态资产变化相对贡献的方法，以北京市房山区为例，分析了２０００年至２０１９年房山区生态资产的变化，以及气候变化和土地利用变化对生态资产变化的相对贡献，结果表明：（１）房山区２０１９年生态资产总价值１７７．１４亿元㊂森林㊁草地㊁农田和湿地的生态资产分别占生态资产总价值的８２．３３％㊁１１．７６％㊁５．２５％和０．０９５％㊂（２）房山在２０００ ２０１９年期间，生态资产总价值增加了２．２７５亿元，气候变化使得房山区的生态资产总价值增加了２．６８９亿元，而土地利用变化使得生态资产总价值减少了０．４１４亿元㊂（３）房山区生态资产西高东低，其中霞云岭乡生态资产总价值最高；琉璃河镇的生态资产增加最多，而拱辰街道下降最显著㊂过去２０年是房山区社会经济快速发展的时期，由于气候变化和生态保护与修复使得生态资产增加，抵消了由于建设用地扩张所带来的生态资产损失㊂关键词：生态资产；气候变化；土地利用变化；相对贡献Ｑｕａｎｔｉｆｙｉｎｇｒｅｌａｔｉｖｅｃｏｎｔｒｉｂｕｔｉｏｎｏｆｃｌｉｍａｔｅｃｈａｎｇｅａｎｄｌａｎｄｕｓｅｃｈａｎｇｅｔｏｔｈｅｃｈａｎｇｅｏｆｅｃｏｌｏｇｉｃａｌａｓｓｅｔｓ：ｔａｋｉｎｇＦａｎｇｓｈａｎＤｉｓｔｒｉｃｔａｓａｎｅｘａｍｐｌｅＷＡＮＧＨｅｔａｎ１，ＧＯＮＧＨｅ２，ＨＵＡＮＧＭｅｉ２，ＺＨＡＮＧＹｕａｎｄｏｎｇ３，ＳＵＮＷｅｉ１，ＧＵＦｅｎｇｘｕｅ１，∗１ＫｅｙＬａｂｏｒａｔｏｒｙｏｆＤｒｙｌａｎｄＡｇｒｉｃｕｌｔｕｒｅ，ＩｎｓｔｉｔｕｔｅｏｆＥｎｖｉｒｏｎｍｅｎｔａｎｄＳｕｓｔａｉｎａｂｌｅＤｅｖｅｌｏｐｍｅｎｔｉｎＡｇｒｉｃｕｌｔｕｒｅ，ＣｈｉｎｅｓｅＡｃａｄｅｍｙｏｆＡｇｒｉｃｕｌｔｕｒａｌＳｃｉｅｎｃｅｓ，Ｂｅｉｊｉｎｇ１０００８１，Ｃｈｉｎａ２ＫｅｙＬａｂｏｒａｔｏｒｙｏｆＥｃｏｓｙｓｔｅｍＮｅｔｗｏｒｋＯｂｓｅｒｖａｔｉｏｎａｎｄＭｏｄｅｌｉｎｇ，ＩｎｓｔｉｔｕｔｅｏｆＧｅｏｇｒａｐｈｉｃＳｃｉｅｎｃｅｓａｎｄＮａｔｕｒａｌＲｅｓｏｕｒｃｅｓＲｅｓｅａｒｃｈ，ＣｈｉｎｅｓｅＡｃａｄｅｍｙｏｆＳｃｉｅｎｃｅｓ，Ｂｅｉｊｉｎｇ１００１０１，Ｃｈｉｎａ３ＫｅｙＬａｂｏｒａｔｏｒｙｏｆＦｏｒｅｓｔＥｃｏｌｏｇｙａｎｄＥｎｖｉｒｏｎｍｅｎｔｏｆＮａｔｉｏｎａｌＦｏｒｅｓｔｒｙａｎｄＧｒａｓｓｌａｎｄＡｄｍｉｎｉｓｔｒａｔｉｏｎ，ＥｃｏｌｏｇｙａｎｄＮａｔｕｒｅＣｏｎｓｅｒｖａｔｉｏｎＩｎｓｔｉｔｕｔｅ，ＣｈｉｎｅｓｅＡｃａｄｅｍｙｏｆＦｏｒｅｓｔｒｙ，Ｂｅｉｊｉｎｇ１０００９１，ＣｈｉｎａＡｂｓｔｒａｃｔ：Ａｓａｎｅｃｏｌｏｇｉｃａｌａｓｓｅｔ，ｅｃｏｓｙｓｔｅｍｉｓｃｌｏｓｅｌｙｒｅｌａｔｅｄｔｏｈｕｍａｎｗｅｌｆａｒｅ．Ｉｔｉｓｏｆｇｒｅａｔｓｉｇｎｉｆｉｃａｎｃｅｔｏｅｖａｌｕａｔｅｔｈｅｖａｌｕｅｏｆｅｃｏｌｏｇｉｃａｌａｓｓｅｔｓａｎｄｑｕａｎｔｉｔａｔｉｖｅｌｙｄｉｓｔｉｎｇｕｉｓｈｔｈｅｒｅｌａｔｉｖｅｃｏｎｔｒｉｂｕｔｉｏｎｏｆｈｕｍａｎａｃｔｉｖｉｔｉｅｓｔｏｔｈｅｃｈａｎｇｅｏｆｅｃｏｌｏｇｉｃａｌａｓｓｅｔｓｆｏｒａｓｓｅｓｓｉｎｇｔｈｅｅｆｆｅｃｔｉｖｅｎｅｓｓｏｆｒｅｇｉｏｎａｌｅｃｏｌｏｇｉｃａｌｃｉｖｉｌｉｚａｔｉｏｎｃｏｎｓｔｒｕｃｔｉｏｎ，ｅｃｏｌｏｇｉｃａｌｃｏｍｐｅｎｓａｔｉｏｎ，ａｎｄｎａｔｕｒａｌａｓｓｅｔａｕｄｉｔｏｆｃａｄｒｅｓｌｅａｖｉｎｇｏｆｆｉｃｅ．Ｂａｓｅｄｏｎｔｈｅｍｅｔｈｏｄｏｆｅｑｕｉｖａｌｅｎｔｖａｌｕｅｆａｃｔｏｒｐｅｒｕｎｉｔｅｃｏｓｙｓｔｅｍａｒｅａ，ｔｈｉｓｓｔｕｄｙｒｅｄｅｆｉｎｅｄｔｈｅｓｔａｎｄａｒｄｅｃｏｌｏｇｉｃａｌａｓｓｅｔｓｖａｌｕｅｅｑｕｉｖａｌｅｎｔｆａｃｔｏｒ，ａｎｄｃｏｎｓｔｒｕｃｔｅｄａｍｅｔｈｏｄｔｈａｔｃｏｕｌｄｑｕａｎｔｉｔａｔｉｖｅｌｙｄｉｓｔｉｎｇｕｉｓｈｔｈｅｒｅｌａｔｉｖｅｃｏｎｔｒｉｂｕｔｉｏｎｏｆｃｌｉｍａｔｅｃｈａｎｇｅａｎｄｌａｎｄｕｓｅｃｈａｎｇｅｔｏｔｈｅｖａｌｕｅｃｈａｎｇｅｏｆｅｃｏｌｏｇｉｃａｌａｓｓｅｔｓ．Ｔａｋｉｎｇ４１２３㊀生㊀态㊀学㊀报㊀㊀㊀４４卷㊀ＦａｎｇｓｈａｎＤｉｓｔｒｉｃｔｏｆＢｅｉｊｉｎｇａｓａｎｅｘａｍｐｌｅ，ｔｈｉｓｓｔｕｄｙａｎａｌｙｚｅｄｔｈｅｃｈａｎｇｅｏｆｅｃｏｌｏｇｉｃａｌａｓｓｅｔｓｉｎＦａｎｇｓｈａｎＤｉｓｔｒｉｃｔｆｒｏｍ２０００ｔｏ２０１９，ａｎｄｔｈｅｒｅｌａｔｉｖｅｃｏｎｔｒｉｂｕｔｉｏｎｏｆｃｌｉｍａｔｅｃｈａｎｇｅａｎｄｌａｎｄｕｓｅｃｈａｎｇｅｔｏｔｈｅｃｈａｎｇｅｏｆｅｃｏｌｏｇｉｃａｌａｓｓｅｔｓ．Ｔｈｅｒｅｓｕｌｔｓｓｈｏｗｅｄｔｈａｔ：（１）ｔｈｅｔｏｔａｌｖａｌｕｅｏｆｅｃｏｌｏｇｉｃａｌａｓｓｅｔｓｉｎＦａｎｇｓｈａｎＤｉｓｔｒｉｃｔｉｎ２０１９ｗａｓ１７．７１４ｂｉｌｌｉｏｎＣＮＹ．Ｔｈｅｖａｌｕｅｏｆｅｃｏｌｏｇｉｃａｌａｓｓｅｔｓｏｆｆｏｒｅｓｔ，ｇｒａｓｓｌａｎｄ，ｆａｒｍｌａｎｄａｎｄｗｅｔｌａｎｄｒｅｓｐｅｃｔｉｖｅｌｙａｃｃｏｕｎｔｅｄｆｏｒ８２．３３％，１１．７６％，５．２５％ａｎｄ０．０９５％ｏｆｔｈｅｔｏｔａｌｖａｌｕｅｏｆｅｃｏｌｏｇｉｃａｌａｓｓｅｔｓ，ｒｅｓｐｅｃｔｉｖｅｌｙ．（２）Ｆｒｏｍ２０００ｔｏ２０１９，ｔｈｅｔｏｔａｌｖａｌｕｅｏｆｅｃｏｌｏｇｉｃａｌａｓｓｅｔｓｉｎＦａｎｇｓｈａｎＤｉｓｔｒｉｃｔｉｎｃｒｅａｓｅｄｂｙ２．２７５ｂｉｌｌｉｏｎＣＮＹ．Ｃｌｉｍａｔｅｃｈａｎｇｅｉｎｃｒｅａｓｅｄｔｈｅｔｏｔａｌｖａｌｕｅｏｆｅｃｏｌｏｇｉｃａｌａｓｓｅｔｓｂｙ２．６８９ｂｉｌｌｉｏｎＣＮＹ，ｗｈｉｌｅｌａｎｄｕｓｅｃｈａｎｇｅｒｅｄｕｃｅｄｔｈｅｔｏｔａｌｖａｌｕｅｏｆｅｃｏｌｏｇｉｃａｌａｓｓｅｔｓｂｙ０．４１４ｂｉｌｌｉｏｎＣＮＹ．（３）ＴｈｅｖａｌｕｅｏｆｅｃｏｌｏｇｉｃａｌａｓｓｅｔｓｉｎＦａｎｇｓｈａｎＤｉｓｔｒｉｃｔｗａｓｈｉｇｈｉｎｔｈｅｗｅｓｔａｎｄｌｏｗｉｎｔｈｅｅａｓｔ，ｏｆｗｈｉｃｈｔｈｅｔｏｔａｌｖａｌｕｅｏｆｅｃｏｌｏｇｉｃａｌａｓｓｅｔｓｉｎＸｉａｙｕｎｌｉｎｇＴｏｗｎｓｈｉｐｗａｓｔｈｅｈｉｇｈｅｓｔ．ＴｈｅｅｃｏｌｏｇｉｃａｌａｓｓｅｔｓｉｎＬｉｕｌｉｈｅＴｏｗｎｓｈｉｐｉｎｃｒｅａｓｅｄｔｈｅｍｏｓｔ，ｗｈｉｌｅＧｏｎｇｃｈｅｎＳｔｒｅｅｔｄｅｃｒｅａｓｅｄｔｈｅｍｏｓｔｓｉｇｎｉｆｉｃａｎｔｌｙ．Ｔｈｅｐａｓｔ２０ｙｅａｒｓｈａｖｅｂｅｅｎａｐｅｒｉｏｄｏｆｒａｐｉｄｓｏｃｉａｌａｎｄｅｃｏｎｏｍｉｃｄｅｖｅｌｏｐｍｅｎｔｉｎＦａｎｇｓｈａｎＤｉｓｔｒｉｃｔ．Ｄｕｅｔｏｃｌｉｍａｔｅｃｈａｎｇｅａｎｄｅｃｏｌｏｇｉｃａｌｐｒｏｔｅｃｔｉｏｎａｎｄｒｅｓｔｏｒａｔｉｏｎ，ｔｈｅｖａｌｕｅｏｆｅｃｏｌｏｇｉｃａｌａｓｓｅｔｓｈａｓｉｎｃｒｅａｓｅｄ，ｏｆｆｓｅｔｔｉｎｇｔｈｅｌｏｓｓｏｆｅｃｏｌｏｇｉｃａｌａｓｓｅｔｓｖａｌｕｅｃａｕｓｅｄｂｙｔｈｅｅｘｐａｎｓｉｏｎｏｆｃｏｎｓｔｒｕｃｔｉｏｎｌａｎｄ．ＫｅｙＷｏｒｄｓ：ｅｃｏｌｏｇｉｃａｌａｓｓｅｔ；ｃｌｉｍａｔｅｃｈａｎｇｅ；ｌａｎｄｕｓｅｃｈａｎｇｅ；ｒｅｌａｔｉｖｅｃｏｎｔｒｉｂｕｔｉｏｎ量化评估 绿水青山 的经济价值，是生态文明建设的重要组成部分，是推进生态文明制度体系建设的重要手段，是引导各级政府积极践行生态文明的有力措施㊂生态资产是指能为人类提供各种产品和服务的生态资源和环境［１ ２］，包括各类自然和人工生态系统［１］㊂生态资产的评估包括了作为载体的水㊁土地和生物的价值和生态系统服务价值的评估［１ ２］，自２０世纪９０年代生态系统服务价值的评估研究逐渐增多［３ ４］㊂对生态系统服务价值的定量评估可以分为基于单位生态服务产品价格的计算方法和基于单位面积价值当量因子的方法㊂基于单位生态服务产品价格的计算方法在全球均有广泛的应用，欧阳志云等［５］首次提出了生态系统生产总值（ＧＥＰ）的概念，建立了ＧＥＰ核算的方法体系㊂此后，基于该方法体系在不同尺度对不同类型生态系统开展了大量的ＧＥＰ核算工作［１，６ １２］㊂基于单位面积价值当量因子的方法由Ｃｏｓｔａｎｚａ于１９９７年提出，并评估了全球生态系统服务和自然资产的经济价值［１３］㊂谢高地等［１４ １５］在该方法的基础上，将生态系统生态服务价值当量因子，定义为１ｈｍ２农田每年自然粮食产量的经济价值，并对生态系统服务价值的当量因子进行了进一步修订和补充，成功应用于中国区域不同生态系统服务价值的评估［１４ １８］㊂由于碳元素是构成生命的基础，陆地生态系统固定碳元素的多少决定了地球生命支持系统功能的大小，直接和间接决定了人类福祉㊂生态系统的各类服务功能，尤其是支持服务也与生态系统总有机碳库的形成㊁积累密切相关㊂因此，本研究将单位面积上总有机碳库碳资产的价值作为生态系统生态服务价值当量因子，相比将农田单位粮食产量的经济价值，能够更加充分的反应生态系统的供给服务能力，以及与调节服务㊁支付服务和文化服务之间的连接关系㊂生态资产的变化是自然和人为因素共同驱动的结果，在干部任期考核的自然资源和生态环境审计㊁生态文明建设评估等生态资产变化评估中，定量区分自然和人为因素的相对贡献至关重要㊂已有生态系统服务价值的核算数据主要来源于监测和统计，无法定量区分气候变化和土地利用变化在生态系统服务价值中的贡献率［１９ ２７］㊂因此，本研究在生态资产核算的基础上，构建了一个量化气候和土地利用变化对生态资产变化相对贡献的方法，为评估人类活动对生态资产变化的影响提供了技术支撑㊂房山区定位为首都可持续发展的战略新区和现代化国际大都市的重要发展区，同时还是北京市西南部重要的生态屏障㊂２０世纪８０年代后，房山区实施封山育林，禁止乱砍滥伐，大规模植树造林，改善生态环境，使得林地面积逐步扩大㊂２０００年后北京城市化进程加速，房山区的建设用地也急剧增加，仅１０年就翻了几乎１倍［２８］㊂因此，本研究以房山区为例，利用新建的生态资产核算方法体系，评估了２０００ ２０１９年房山区生态资产的时空变异，定量辨识了气候变化和人类活动对房山区过去２０年生态资产变化的相对贡献，从而为区域的干部离任生态环境审计㊁生态工程建设的生态效益评估㊁生态补偿等提供了技术和数据支撑，同时也为区域的生态系统保护与管理提供参考㊂１㊀研究区域和研究方法１．１㊀研究区域概况房山区（北纬３９ʎ３０ᶄ ３９ʎ５５ᶄ，东经１１５ʎ２５ᶄ １１６ʎ１５ᶄ）位于北京市的西南部，辖区总面积２０１９ｋｍ２㊂气候属北温带大陆性季风气候，地处暖温带半湿润区，年平均气温１０ １２ħ，多年平均降水量为６５５ｍｍ㊂房山区地处太行山脉与华北平原的过渡地带，地貌类型复杂多样，由西北向东南依次为中山㊁低山㊁丘陵㊁岗台地㊁洪积平原和冲积平原，山地和丘陵的面积占总面积的三分之二（图１）㊂基于２０１５年遥感影像解译的土地利用数据表明（图１），房山区的土地利用随地势而变化，在西部中山㊁低山㊁丘陵区以森林㊁草地和灌丛为主，其中森林面积最大，占总面积的５３．８％，草地占到１１．６９％㊂在东部和南部的洪积平原和冲积平原，以农田和建设用地为主㊂图１㊀房山位置图㊁土地利用空间分布及各土地利用类型占比Ｆｉｇ．１㊀ＴｈｅｌｏｃａｔｉｏｎｏｆＦａｎｇｓｈａｎＤｉｓｔｒｉｃｔ，ｓｐａｔｉａｌｄｉｓｔｒｉｂｕｔｉｏｎｏｆｌａｎｄｕｓｅａｎｄｔｈｅｐｒｏｐｏｒｔｉｏｎｏｆｅａｃｈｌａｎｄｕｓｅｔｙｐｅｉｎＦａｎｇｓｈａｎＤｉｓｔｒｉｃｔ１．２㊀生态资产评估方法和参数确定本研究将生态系统生态服务价值当量因子定义为单位面积上总有机碳库碳资产的价值，然后应用改进的谢高地等［１４ １５］的生态系统生态服务价值当量因子表，核算出区域的生态资产总价值㊂生态资产总价值分为直接价值和间接价值两部分，生态资产的直接价值（ＥＷＤ）为供给服务价值，用生态系统碳资产的价值表示，计算方法为：ＥＷＤ＝ðｎｉ＝１Ａｉˑ［（ＶＣｉ＋ＳＣｉ）ˑＰＣ］（１）在进行区域生态资产评估时，根据不同空间分辨率将区域划分成若干格点，ｎ为评估区的格点数，Ａｉ为第ｉ个格点的面积（ｈｍ２），ＶＣｉ为第ｉ个格点的植被碳储量（ｔＣＯ２／ｈｍ２），ＳＣｉ为第ｉ个格点的土壤有机碳储量５１２３㊀８期㊀㊀㊀王鹤潭㊀等：量化气候和土地利用变化对生态资产变化的相对贡献 以房山区为例㊀６１２３㊀生㊀态㊀学㊀报㊀㊀㊀４４卷㊀（ｔＣＯ２／ｈｍ２），ＰＣ为自愿减排碳市场多年平均的碳交易价格，根据研究时段内国际碳抵消价格的均值取值为１３．６元／ｔＣＯ２㊂生态资产间接价值包括调节服务㊁支持服务和文化服务的价值，各项通过直接价值和当量因子表转换得到，间接价值（ＥＷＩ）的计算方法为：ＥＷＩ＝ðｎｉ＝１ð７ｊ＝１Ａｉˑ［ＶＣｉ＋ＳＣｉ()ＰＣˑＲｉｊ］（２）式中，Ｒｉｊ为间接价值与直接价值的转换系数㊂ｊ＝１，７，分别代表生态系统的气体调节服务㊁气候调节服务㊁水源涵养服务㊁土壤形成与保护服务㊁废物处理服务㊁生物多样性维持和娱乐文化服务㊂Ｒｉｊ取值在谢高地等［１４ １５］的当量因子表的基础上做了进一步的改进：（１）不同类型生态系统碳资产价值具有同等重要性；（２）在本研究中的当量因子反应的是各类生态系统服务价值相对于碳资产价值的重要性，因此本研究在谢高地等［１４ １５］的基础上做了适当调整，取值见表１㊂表１㊀单位面积生态资产当量Ｔａｂｌｅ１㊀Ｅｃｏｌｏｇｉｃａｌａｓｓｅｔｓｅｑｕｉｖａｌｅｎｔｖａｌｕｅｐｅｒｕｎｉｔａｒｅａ评价指标Ｗｅｔｌａｎｄ水域Ｗａｔｅｒｂｏｄｉｅｓ荒漠ＤｅｓｅｒｔＣｒｏｐｌａｎｄ湿地Ｇｒａｓｓｌａｎｄ农田Ｅｖａｌｕａｔｉｏｎｉｎｄｅｘｅｓ森林Ｆｏｒｅｓｔ草地气体调节Ｇａｓｒｅｇｕｌａｔｉｏｎ１．９０１．３１０．５２４．０２０．５８０．１０气候调节Ｃｌｉｍａｔｅｒｅｇｕｌａｔｉｏｎ５．２３１．９７０．７０１２．５８２．３４０．１７水源涵养Ｗａｔｅｒｒｅｔｅｎｔｉｏｎ３．２４１．９２０．５５２２．４０２１．３３０．１７土壤形成与保护ｓｏｉｌｆｏｒｍａｔｉｏｎａｎｄｃｏｎｖｅｒｓａｔｉｏｎ２．８４２．２１１．０６３．３２０．４７０．８３废物处理Ｗａｓｔｅｄｉｓｐｏｓａｌ１．６７１．０００．５２２４．００１６．８８１．３３生物多样性保护Ｂｉｏｄｉｖｅｒｓｉｔｙｃｏｎｓｅｒｖａｔｉｏｎ３．３６２．３７０．７３６．１５３．９０１．６７娱乐文化Ｒｅｃｒｅａｔｉｏｎ１．１００．６３０．１２７．８２５．０５０．４０碳资产价值Ｃａｒｂｏｎａｓｓｅｔｓ１．００１．００１．００１．００１．００１．００生态资产总价值（ＥＷ）为直接价值与间接价值之和㊂ＥＷ＝ＥＷＩ＋ＥＷＤ（３）１．３㊀模型介绍生态系统过程模型能够动态评估生态系统变化，结合生态价值评估模型能够为决策和管理人员提供数据化信息，满足不断增长的生态价值评估服务需求㊂本研究中土壤有机碳（ＳＣ）和植被碳（ＶＣ）来源于生态系统过程模型 ＣＥＶＳＡ２模型的输出㊂应用生态系统过程模型（ＣＥＶＳＡ）模型建立于１９９８年，是一个基于生理生态过程模拟植物⁃土壤⁃大气系统能量㊁水㊁碳交换的生物地球化学循环模型［２９ ３１］㊂ＣＥＶＳＡ２模型是在ＣＥＶＳＡ模型的基础上构建的新一代碳氮水耦合模型［３２］㊂ＣＥＶＳＡ２模型包括与植被类型相关的光合生理㊁分配㊁凋落㊁周转的参数以及与土壤质地类型相关的土壤水分参数等，参数的取值来源于大量实验室和野外试验观测，同时应用中国区域大量的地面观测数据进行了校准㊂ＣＥＶＳＡ２模型的模拟结果已经应用大量的多尺度的观测数据进行了验证和校准，在全球和区域水平上应用于研究陆地生态系统碳循环对气候年际变化的响应［３２ ３９］㊂１．４㊀量化气候变化和土地利用变化相对贡献的方法设ｔ１和ｔ２分别为生态资产计算时段的起始和终止时刻，ｔ１和ｔ２时刻格点ｉ的面积为Ａ１ｉ，Ａ２ｉ，格点ｉ单位面积平均生态资产分别为ＥＷ１ｉ㊁ＥＷ２ｉ，则ｔ１到ｔ２时刻土地利用类型ｉ的生态资产的变化量ΔＰｉ为：ΔＰｉ＝Ａ２ｉＥＷ２ｉ－Ａ１ｉＥＷ１ｉ（４）对公式（４）进行转换，设土地利用变化面积ΔＡｉ＝Ａ２ｉ－Ａ１ｉ，ΔＥＷｉ＝ＥＷ２ｉ－ＥＷ１ｉ，可将公式（４）进行展开得到：ΔＰｉ＝Ａ１ｉΔＥＷｉ＋ΔＡｉＥＷ２ｉ（５）通过公式转换将气候变化和土地利用变化分别导致的生态资产变化进行了区分，在土地利用类型不发生转换的情况下，区域上由气候变化导致的生态资产的变化量ΔＥＣ为：ΔＥＣ＝ðｎｉ＝１Ａ１ｉΔＥＷｉ（６）式中，ｎ为区域上的格点数，而区域上由土地利用变化所导致的生态资产的变化量ΔＥＬ为：ΔＥＬ＝ðｎｉ＝１ΔＡｉＥＷ２ｉ（７）基于以上计算的ΔＥＬ和ΔＥＣ，气候和土地利用变化对区域陆地生态资产的贡献率ＲＣ和ＲＬ分别为：ＲＣ＝ΔＥＣΔＥＣ＋ΔＥＬˑ１００％（８）ＲＬ＝ΔＥＬΔＥＣ＋ΔＥＬˑ１００％（９）１．５㊀数据来源和处理驱动ＣＥＶＳＡ２模型的气象数据来源于气象台站的观测数据，应用ＡＮＵＳＰＬＩＮ软件［４０］进行内插，获得分辨率３０ｍ的栅格数据㊂大气ＣＯ２浓度资料来自于美国夏威夷ＭａｕｎａＬｏａ观测所（ｈｔｔｐｓ：／／ｗｗｗ．ｃｏ２．ｅａｒｔｈ／）㊂土壤类型和质地资料取自１ʒ１４００万土壤类型图和第二次土壤普查数据，结合联合国粮食及农业组织（ＦＡＯ）的土壤数据库（ＨＷＳＤｖ１．２），ｈｔｔｐｓ：／／ｐｒｅｖｉｏｕｓ．ｉｉａｓａ．ａｃ．ａｔ／），重采样到３０ｍ空间分辨率㊂基于２０００年和２０１５年遥感影像解译了３０ｍ空间分辨率的土地利用数据㊂２㊀结果与分析２．１㊀２０００ ２０１９年房山区生态资产及其变化２．１．１㊀房山区生态资产总量及其空间分布２０１９年房山生态资产总价值为１７７．１４亿元，生态资产总价值占国内生产总值（ＧＤＰ）的２３．３％㊂森林㊁草地㊁农田和湿地的生态资产分别占生态资产总价值的８２．３３％㊁１１．７６％㊁５．２５％和０．０９５％，而直接价值分别占总量的８４．５１％㊁６．９０％㊁８．０１％和０．００９％㊂房山西部山地和丘陵区以森林为主，生态资产较高，总价值大部分区域在１１万元／ｈｍ２以上，直接价值大部分区域在１．２万元／ｈｍ２以上㊂东部以农田和建设用地为主，生态资产相对较低，总价值在６万元／ｈｍ２以下，直接价值大部分区域在０．５万元／ｈｍ２以下（图２）㊂图２㊀房山生态资产总价值和直接价值的空间分布Ｆｉｇ．２㊀ＳｐａｔｉａｌｄｉｓｔｒｉｂｕｔｉｏｎｏｆｔｏｔａｌｖａｌｕｅａｎｄｄｉｒｅｃｔｖａｌｕｅｏｆｅｃｏｌｏｇｉｃａｌａｓｓｅｔｓｉｎＦａｎｇｓｈａｎＤｉｓｔｒｉｃｔ由于不同生态系统类型的生态系统服务功能和面积的差异，使得其在房山区生态资产间接价值中占比差异较大，气体调节㊁气候调节㊁水源涵养㊁生物多样性维持和娱乐文化服务价值，森林均占比超过８０％，草地的占比约在１０％左右，而湿地的占比最小，仅不到１％㊂土壤形成与保护服务价值总量中森林㊁草地㊁农田和湿地分别占比７８．０８％㊁１４．８９％㊁６．４７％和０．０２％㊂废物处理服务价值总量中森林㊁草地㊁农田和湿地分别占比７１２３㊀８期㊀㊀㊀王鹤潭㊀等：量化气候和土地利用变化对生态资产变化的相对贡献 以房山区为例㊀６８．７４％㊁１７．９６％㊁１２．４９％和０．３４％㊂在空间上，各项生态系统服务价值均是西部山地和丘陵区较高，而东部较低，除废物处理和娱乐文化服务价值外，其他生态系统服务价值均在在１．４万元／ｈｍ２以上（图３）㊂图３㊀房山区生态系统气体调节服务㊁气候调节服务㊁水源涵养服务㊁土壤形成与保护服务㊁废物处理服务㊁生物多样性维持服务价值和娱乐文化的空间分布Ｆｉｇ．３㊀Ｔｈｅｓｐａｔｉａｌｐａｔｔｅｒｎｏｆｇａｓｒｅｇｕｌａｔｉｏｎｓｅｒｖｉｃｅｓ，Ｃｌｉｍａｔｅｒｅｇｕｌａｔｉｏｎｓｅｒｖｉｃｅ，Ｗａｔｅｒｃｏｎｓｅｒｖａｔｉｏｎｓｅｒｖｉｃｅｓ，ＦｏｒｓｅｒｖｉｃｅｓｔｏｓｏｉｌＦｏｒｍａｔｉｏｎａｎｄｃｏｎｓｅｒｖａｔｉｏｎ，Ｗａｓｔｅｔｒｅａｔｍｅｎｔｓｅｒｖｉｃｅ，Ｂｉｏｄｉｖｅｒｓｉｔｙｍａｉｎｔｅｎａｎｃｅｓｅｒｖｉｃｅｓａｎｄｒｅｃｒｅａｔｉｏｎａｎｄｃｕｌｔｕｒｅｓｅｒｖｉｃｅｖａｌｕｅｓ８１２３㊀生㊀态㊀学㊀报㊀㊀㊀４４卷㊀２．１．２㊀２０００ ２０１９年房山区生态资产的变化２０００年至２０１９年是房山经济社会快速发展的时期，ＧＤＰ在２０年间增长了６．７３倍，ＧＤＰ年均增长３５．４２％㊂同期，生态资产增加了２．２７５亿元，占２０００年生态资产的１．３０％㊂其中森林㊁草地和湿地生态资产增加了１．９５５亿元㊁０．４７８亿元和０．４７５亿元；农田和水域的生态资产则分别减少了０．６３亿元和０．００３亿元（表２）㊂表２㊀房山生态资产总价值及其变化情况Ｔａｂｌｅ２㊀ＣｈａｎｇｅｓｉｎｔｈｅｔｏｔａｌｅｃｏｌｏｇｉｃａｌａｓｓｅｔｓｏｆＦａｎｇｓｈａｎＤｉｓｔｒｉｃｔ土地利用类型Ｌａｎｄ⁃ｕｓｅｔｙｐｅｓ２０００年／亿元２０００／ｂｉｌｌｉｏｎｙｕａｎ２０１９年／亿元２０１９／ｂｉｌｌｉｏｎｙｕａｎ变化量／亿元Ｃｈａｎｇｅｉｎｖａｌｕｅｓ／ｂｉｌｌｉｏｎｙｕａｎ森林Ｆｏｒｅｓｔ１２８．０９５１３０．０５０１．９５５草地Ｇｒａｓｓｌａｎｄ２０．９１２２１．３９００．４７８农田Ｃｒｏｐｌａｎｄ２０．５６４１９．９３４－０．６３０湿地Ｗｅｔｌａｎｄ５．０５１５．５２６０．４７５水域Ｗａｔｅｒｂｏｄｉｅｓ０．２４３０．２４０－０．００３建设用地Ａｒｔｉｆｉｃｉａｌｓｕｒｆａｃｅｓ０００合计Ｔｏｔａｌ１７４．８６５１７７．１４０２．２７５２．２㊀气候变化和土地利用变化对房山区生态资产变化的相对贡献过去２０年，房山区的气温和降水均表现为增加趋势，气候倾向率分别为０．３３ħ／１０ａ和５３．４０ｍｍ／１０ａ，升温伴随着降水增加有利于植被的生长和恢复，促进了生态系统有机碳的累积㊂因此，气候变化使得各类型生态资产均增加，增加值达到２．６８９亿元㊂气候变化对森林和草地的生态资产变化贡献最大，分别达到９５．７８％和９２．１０％㊂土地利用变化则是农田㊁湿地和水域生态系统生态资产变化的主要原因，分别贡献了７５．７８％㊁９７．９０％和６６．６７％，土地利用变化使得房山区总的生态资产共减少了０．４１４亿元（表３）㊂表３㊀气候变化和土地利用变化对生态资产变化的相对贡献Ｔａｂｌｅ３㊀Ｒｅｌａｔｉｖｅｃｏｎｔｒｉｂｕｔｉｏｎｓｏｆｃｌｉｍａｔｅｃｈａｎｇｅａｎｄｌａｎｄｕｓｅｃｈａｎｇｅｔｏｃｈａｎｇｅｓｉｎｅｃｏｌｏｇｉｃａｌａｓｓｅｔｖａｌｕｅｓ土地利用类型Ｌａｎｄ⁃ｕｓｅｔｙｐｅｓΔＥＣ／亿元ΔＥＣΔＡ／ｋｍ２ΔＥＬ／亿元ΔＥＬＲＣ／％ＲＬ／％森林Ｆｏｒｅｓｔ１．８７１．３７８０．０８５９５．７８４．２２１草地Ｇｒａｓｓｌａｎｄ０．５２３－０．７８７－０．０４５９２．１０７．９０农田Ｃｒｏｐｌａｎｄ０．２８３－３６．２５６－０．９１３２４．２２７５．７８湿地Ｗｅｔｌａｎｄ０．０１０．７４１０．４６５２．１０９７．９０水域Ｗａｔｅｒｂｏｄｉｅｓ０．００３－２．５１８－０．００６３３．３３６６．６７建设用地Ａｒｔｉｆｉｃｉａｌｓｕｒｆａｃｅｓ０３７．４１１０合计Ｔｏｔａｌ２．６８９－０．０３１－０．４１４㊀㊀（１）ΔＥＣ：由气候变化导致的生态资产的变化量Ｔｈｅａｍｏｕｎｔｏｆｃｈａｎｇｅｉｎｅｃｏｌｏｇｉｃａｌａｓｓｅｔｓｄｕｅｔｏｃｌｉｍａｔｅｃｈａｎｇｅ；（２）ΔＡ：土地利用变化面积Ａｒｅａｏｆｌａｎｄ－ｕｓｅｃｈａｎｇｅ；（３）ＲＣ：气候变化对区域陆地生态资产的贡献率ＴｈｅＣｏｎｔｒｉｂｕｔｉｏｎｒａｔｅｏｆｃｌｉｍａｔｅｃｈａｎｇｅｔｏｒｅｇｉｏｎａｌｔｅｒｒｅｓｔｒｉａｌｅｃｏｌｏｇｉｃａｌａｓｓｅｔｓ；（４）ＲＬ：土地利用对区域陆地生态资产的贡献率ＴｈｅＣｏｎｔｒｉｂｕｔｉｏｎｒａｔｅｏｆｌａｎｄ⁃ｕｓｅｔｏｒｅｇｉｏｎａｌｔｅｒｒｅｓｔｒｉａｌｅｃｏｌｏｇｉｃａｌａｓｓｅｔｓ２．３㊀２０００ ２０１９年房山区各乡镇生态资产变化的比较受各乡镇土地利用类型和总面积的影响，房山区共２８个乡镇中，生态资产排名最高的为霞云岭乡，２０１９年生态资产总价值达到１２．１４２亿元，其后依次为十渡镇㊁佛子庄乡㊁蒲洼乡㊁张坊镇㊁史家营乡，这些乡镇的生态资产均超过５亿元㊂生态资产超过１亿元的乡镇共有１５个，超过１千万元的乡镇共有２５个㊂迎风街道㊁新镇街道㊁星城街道均不足１千万元，其中星城街道最低，仅为３万元，这些街道主要分布在东部平原城区，以建设用地为主（图４）㊂从２０００年至２０１９年各乡镇生态资产变化的绝对量来看，受气候变化和生态保护与修复的影响，２１个乡９１２３㊀８期㊀㊀㊀王鹤潭㊀等：量化气候和土地利用变化对生态资产变化的相对贡献 以房山区为例㊀镇的生态资产均增加，主要分布在西部山地㊁丘陵区㊂琉璃河镇湿地保护与修复成效显著，生态资产增加最为显著，其后依次为霞云岭乡㊁佛子庄乡㊁大安山乡等㊂房山区另有８个乡镇在研究时段内生态资产下降，主要分布在东部建设用地快速扩张的乡镇，其中拱辰街道下降最为显著，共下降了０．１２５亿元（图４）㊂图４㊀２０１９年房山区各乡镇生态资产（亿元）和乡镇生态资产变化情况Ｆｉｇ．４㊀Ａｌｌｖｉｌｌａｇｅｓｅｃｏｌｏｇｉｃａｌａｓｓｅｔｓ（ｂｉｌｌｉｏｎｙｕａｎ）ａｎｄｔｈｅｉｒｃｈａｎｇｅｉｎＦａｎｇｓｈａｎＤｉｓｔｒｉｃｔ由气候变化引起的房山区各乡镇生态资产的变化均表现为增加，有１７个乡镇的生态资产变化由气候变化所主导，其中霞云岭乡由于气候变化导致的生态资产增加最高，其相对贡献高达９９．６６％㊂有１１个乡镇的生态资产变化由土地利用变化所主导㊂植树造林和生态保护与修复会促进生态资产的增长，在琉璃河㊁大安山乡㊁石楼镇等７个乡镇土地利用变化使得生态资产增加㊂毁林开荒等破坏生态环境的行为会造成生态资产的减少甚至丧失，土地利用变化在２０个乡镇均使得生态资产下降，其中城关街道㊁拱辰街道和窦店镇由于建设用地的扩张，下降最为显著㊂３㊀讨论本研究计算的房山区２０１９年生态资产总价值为１７７．１４亿元，约占同期ＧＤＰ的２３．３％㊂马国霞等［８］核算的我国２０１５年ＧＥＰ约是同期ＧＤＰ的１．０１倍㊂谢高地等［１８］基于当量因子法计算的２０１０年中国生态系统服务价值为３８．１０万亿元，约为同期ＧＤＰ的９４．９７％㊂牟雪洁等［９］计算的２０１６年北京市延庆区ＧＥＰ为３３５．６３亿元㊂本研究中生态资产对自愿减排市场的碳交易价格较为敏感，在本研究中年平均的碳交易价格取值为１３．６元／ｔＣＯ２，近年来，碳抵消的价格在逐步上涨，２０２２年初已经上涨至１４．４美元，预计到２０３０年碳价可能高达５０美元／ｔＣＯ２㊂由此可见，本研究采用的碳交易价格相对偏低，使得核算的生态资产总价值也相对偏低㊂另外，本研究采用了平均的碳交易价格，忽略了研究时段内碳交易市场价格的波动，以提高不同区域生态资产核算结果的可比性，同时忽略了由于碳价变化对生态资产变化的影响，以更好地分析气候变化和土地利用变化的相对贡献㊂ＧＥＰ的核算方法体系是目前国内应用最为广泛的生态产品价值核算方法，但在进行区域核算过程中，需要采集的行业数据庞杂，数据采集㊁处理㊁参数选择和计算的工作量较大，耗时长㊁成本高［４１］，较难实现快速的㊁动态的价值评估㊂而且不同研究者在进行区域核算时，对于核算指标及其计算方法的选择㊁参数的确定㊁定价方法等的不同，使得不同区域核算结果的可比性相对较差㊂基于单位面积价值当量因子的方法采用标准生态服务价值当量因子和基础当量表，能够快速完成区域核算，且不同区域之间可比性较强㊂但是，当量因子０２２３㊀生㊀态㊀学㊀报㊀㊀㊀４４卷㊀反应的是各类生态系统服务价值相对于碳资产价值的重要性，取值来源于专家知识［１４ １５］，缺乏机理解释，不能准确反映不同类型生态系统和不同类型生态系统服务的价值㊁动态及其主导影响因素的差异，同时对标准生态服务价值当量因子的定价较为敏感，对核算的生态资产总价值影响较大，其结果也缺乏充分的验证㊂未来随着生态基础观测数据和ＧＥＰ功能量核算成果的累积，逐步建立不同区域㊁不同类型生态系统中生态系统调节服务㊁支持服务和文化服务与碳储量之间的定量关系，从而获得更为准确㊁详细和动态的当量因子表，进一步提升核算结果的科学性㊁易操作性和可比性㊂生态资产核算的目的在于应用，在进行地区生态文明建设成效评估㊁干部离任生态环境审计㊁生态补偿机制建立过程中，如何定量区分人类活动的相对贡献具有重要意义㊂目前无论是ＧＥＰ的核算方法体系还是单位面积价值当量因子法都无法将人类活动的影响进行定量区分㊂本研究将生态系统的碳资产价值作为标准生态服务价值当量因子，并构建了一个能够定量区分气候变化和土地利用变化对生态资产变化相对贡献的方法，从而能够将生态产品价值评估的结果与政策决策与管理很好地整合，提升了生态产品价值评估的有效性㊁必要性和应用价值，为区域生态文明建设的一系列决策提供了技术支持㊂房山在２０００ ２０１９年期间，由于经济社会快速发展，城镇化建设的需求，各类建筑用地需求增加，过去２０年，建设用地增加了３７．４１１ｋｍ２，占２０１５年房山区城乡建设用地的１２．２７％，建设用地的增加主要来源于农田面积的减少，过去２０年房山区农田面积减少了３６．２５６ｋｍ２，其次是水域面积减少了２．５１８ｋｍ２，草地的面积也有所减少，但同时期也是房山区开展生态文明建设，加强生态系统保护与修复的重要时期㊂得益于房山区生态文明建设的成效，森林和湿地面积均有所增加，通过新增造林森林面积增加了１．３８ｋｍ２，湿地面积也增加了０．７４ｋｍ２㊂建设用地的扩张使得房山区生态资产总价值减少了０．９６７亿元，森林和湿地面积的增加使得生态资产共增加了０．５５亿元，气候变化则使得生态资产增加了２．６８９亿元，因此过去２０年房山区生态资产净增加了２．２７５亿元，由此可以看出，气候变化和生态保护与修复抵消了城市扩张所造成的生态资产损失㊂另外，本研究构建的算法是定量区分气候变化和土地利用变化对生态资产变化的相对贡献，但人类活动的影响除土地利用变化外，还包括生态修复与保护㊁森林经营管理㊁草场可持续经营㊁农田管理等，需要进一步改进算法，从而能够定量区分各种人类活动对生态系统及其资产变化的相对贡献㊂４㊀结论基于本研究构建的快速㊁动态的生态资产变化评估方法，２０１９年房山陆地生态系统生态资产总价值的评估结果为１７７．１４亿元㊂森林㊁草地㊁农田和湿地的生态资产分别占生态资产总价值的８２．３３％㊁１１．７６％㊁５．２５％和０．０９５％㊂房山在２０００ ２０１９年期间，生态资产总价值增加了２．２７５亿元，占２０００年生态资产总价值的１．３０％㊂房山在２０００ ２０１９年期间，由于经济社会快速发展，城镇化建设的需求，建设用地增加了３７．４１１ｋｍ２，农田㊁水域㊁草地面积的减少，使得房山总生态资产减少了０．９６７亿元㊂但得益于房山区生态文明建设的成效，森林和湿地面积均有所增加，森林和湿地生态资产共增加了０．５５亿元㊂过去２０年气候变化有利于房山区生态资产的提升，使得生态资产增加了２．６８９亿元，因此在过去２０年房山区的生态资产总体表现为增加，气候变化和生态保护与修复抵消了城市扩张所造成的生态资产损失㊂房山区生态资产西高东低，森林主要分布在西部山区，其中霞云岭乡生态资产最高，东部平原区以建设用地㊁农田为主，生态资产相对较低㊂过去２０年房山区生态资产增长最为显著的是琉璃河街道，由于建设用地扩张也主要发生在东部地区，拱辰街道的生态资产下降最为显著㊂参考文献（Ｒｅｆｅｒｅｎｃｅｓ）：［１］㊀白杨，李晖，王晓媛，ＪｕｈａＭ．Ａｌａｔａｌｏ，江波，王敏，刘文俊．云南省生态资产与生态系统生产总值核算体系研究．自然资源学报，２０１７，３２（７）：１１００⁃１１１２．［２］㊀谢高地．生态资产评价：存量㊁质量与价值．环境保护，２０１７，４５（１１）：１８⁃２２．１２２３㊀８期㊀㊀㊀王鹤潭㊀等：量化气候和土地利用变化对生态资产变化的相对贡献 以房山区为例㊀２２２３㊀生㊀态㊀学㊀报㊀㊀㊀４４卷㊀［３］㊀戴君虎，王焕炯，王红丽，陈春阳．生态系统服务价值评估理论框架与生态补偿实践．地理科学进展，２０１２，３１（７）：９６３⁃９６９．［４］㊀刘尧，张玉钧，贾倩．生态系统服务价值评估方法研究．环境保护，２０１７，４５（６）：６４⁃６８．［５］㊀欧阳志云，朱春全，杨广斌，徐卫华，郑华，张琰，肖燚．生态系统生产总值核算：概念㊁核算方法与案例研究．生态学报，２０１３，３３（２１）：６７４７⁃６７６１．［６］㊀徐婷，徐跃，江波，张玲，宋文彬，周德民．贵州草海湿地生态系统服务价值评估．生态学报，２０１５，３５（１３）：４２９５⁃４３０３．［７］㊀张翼然，周德民，刘苗．中国内陆湿地生态系统服务价值评估 以７１个湿地案例点为数据源．生态学报，２０１５，３５（１３）：４２７９⁃４２８６．［８］㊀马国霞，於方，王金南，周夏飞，袁婧，牟雪洁，周颖，杨威杉，彭菲．中国２０１５年陆地生态系统生产总值核算研究．中国环境科学，２０１７，３７（４）：１４７４⁃１４８２．［９］㊀牟雪洁，王夏晖，张箫，饶胜，朱振肖．北京市延庆区生态系统生产总值核算及空间化．水土保持研究，２０２０，２７（１）：２６５⁃２７４，２８２．［１０］㊀欧阳志云，林亦晴，宋昌素．生态系统生产总值（ＧＥＰ）核算研究 以浙江省丽水市为例．环境与可持续发展，２０２０，４５（６）：８０⁃８５．［１１］㊀钱大文，曹广民，杜岩功，李茜，郭小伟．２０００ ２０１５年祁连山南坡生态系统服务价值时空变化．生态学报，２０２０，４０（４）：１３９２⁃１４０４．［１２］㊀宋昌素，欧阳志云．面向生态效益评估的生态系统生产总值ＧＥＰ核算研究 以青海省为例．生态学报，２０２０，４０（１０）：３２０７⁃３２１７．［１３］㊀ＣｏｓｔａｎｚａＲ，ｄᶄＡｒｇｅＲ，ｄｅＧｒｏｏｔＲ，ＦａｒｂｅｒＳ，ＧｒａｓｓｏＭ，ＨａｎｎｏｎＢ，ＬｉｍｂｕｒｇＫ，ＮａｅｅｍＳ，ＯᶄＮｅｉｌｌＲＶ，ＰａｒｕｅｌｏＪ，ＲａｓｋｉｎＲＧ，ＳｕｔｔｏｎＰ，ｖａｎｄｅｎＢｅｌｔＭ．Ｔｈｅｖａｌｕｅｏｆｔｈｅｗｏｒｌｄᶄｓｅｃｏｓｙｓｔｅｍｓｅｒｖｉｃｅｓａｎｄｎａｔｕｒａｌｃａｐｉｔａｌ．Ｎａｔｕｒｅ，１９９７，３８７（６６３０）：２５３⁃２６０．［１４］㊀谢高地，甄霖，鲁春霞，肖玉，陈操．一个基于专家知识的生态系统服务价值化方法，自然资源学报，２００８，２３（５）：９１１⁃９１９．［１５］㊀谢高地，张彩霞，张雷明，陈文辉，李士美．基于单位面积机制当量因子的生态系统服务价值化方法改进，自然资源学报，２０１５，３０（８）：１２４３⁃１２５４．［１６］㊀谢高地，张钇锂，鲁春霞，郑度，成升魁．中国自然草地生态系统服务价值，自然资源学报，２００１，１６（１）：４７⁃５３．［１７］㊀谢高地，鲁春霞，冷允法，郑度，李双成．青藏高原生态资产的价值评估．自然资源学报，２００３，１８（２）：１８９⁃１９６．［１８］㊀谢高地，张彩霞，张昌顺，肖玉，鲁春霞．中国生态系统服务的价值，资源科学，２０１５，３７（９）：１７４０⁃１７４６．［１９］㊀张明军，范建峰，虎陈霞，张勃．兰州市改善大气环境质量的总经济价值评估．干旱区资源与环境，２００４，１８（３）：２８⁃３２．［２０］㊀徐雨晴，周波涛，於琍，石英，徐影．气候变化背景下中国未来森林生态系统服务价值的时空特征．生态学报，２０１８，３８（６）：１９５２⁃１９６３．［２１］㊀胡和兵，刘红玉，郝敬锋，安静．城市化流域生态系统服务价值时空分异特征及其对土地利用程度的响应．生态学报，２０１３，３３（８）：２５６５⁃２５７６．［２２］㊀刘永强，廖柳文，龙花楼，秦建新．土地利用转型的生态系统服务价值效应分析 以湖南省为例．地理研究，２０１５，３４（４）：６９１⁃７００．［２３］㊀张骞，高明，杨乐，陈成龙，孙宇，王金柱．１９８８ ２０１３年重庆市主城九区生态用地空间结构及其生态系统服务价值变化．生态学报，２０１７，３７（２）：５６６⁃５７５．［２４］㊀刘亚茹，王聪，严力蛟．华北平原农区土地利用变化对生态系统服务的影响 以河南省商丘市为例．应用生态学报，２０１８，２９（５）：１５９７⁃１６０６．［２５］㊀ＰｏｌａｓｋｙＳ．ＮａｔｕｒａｌＣａｐｉｔａｌａｎｄＨｕｍａｎＷｅｌｌ⁃Ｂｅｉｎｇ，ＡｍｅｒｉｃａｎＡｓｓｏｃｉａｔｉｏｎｆｏｒｔｈｅＡｄｖａｎｃｅｍｅｎｔｏｆＳｃｉｅｎｃｅ．２０１１．［２６］㊀ＥｓｔｏｑｕｅＲＣ，ＭｕｒａｙａｍａＹ．Ｌａｎｄｓｃａｐｅｐａｔｔｅｒｎａｎｄｅｃｏｓｙｓｔｅｍｓｅｒｖｉｃｅｖａｌｕｅｃｈａｎｇｅｓ：ｉｍｐｌｉｃａｔｉｏｎｓｆｏｒｅｎｖｉｒｏｎｍｅｎｔａｌｓｕｓｔａｉｎａｂｉｌｉｔｙｐｌａｎｎｉｎｇｆｏｒｔｈｅｒａｐｉｄｌｙｕｒｂａｎｉｚｉｎｇｓｕｍｍｅｒｃａｐｉｔａｌｏｆｔｈｅＰｈｉｌｉｐｐｉｎｅｓ．ＬａｎｄｓｃａｐｅａｎｄＵｒｂａｎＰｌａｎｎｉｎｇ，２０１３，１１６：６０⁃７２．［２７］㊀ＳａｎｎｉｇｒａｈｉＳ，ＰｉｌｌａＦ，ＢａｓｕＢ，ＢａｓｕＡＳ，ＳａｒｋａｒＫ，ＣｈａｋｒａｂｏｒｔｉＳ，ＪｏｓｈｉＰＫ，ＺｈａｎｇＱ，ＷａｎｇＹ，ＢｈａｔｔＳ，ＢｈａｔｔＡ，ＪｈａＳ，ＫｅｅｓｓｔｒａＳ，ＲｏｙＰＳ．ＥｘａｍｉｎｉｎｇｔｈｅｅｆｆｅｃｔｓｏｆｆｏｒｅｓｔｆｉｒｅｏｎｔｅｒｒｅｓｔｒｉａｌｃａｒｂｏｎｅｍｉｓｓｉｏｎａｎｄｅｃｏｓｙｓｔｅｍｐｒｏｄｕｃｔｉｏｎｉｎＩｎｄｉａｕｓｉｎｇｒｅｍｏｔｅｓｅｎｓｉｎｇａｐｐｒｏａｃｈｅｓ．ＳｃｉｅｎｃｅｏｆｔｈｅＴｏｔａｌＥｎｖｉｒｏｎｍｅｎｔ，２０２０，７２５：１３８３３１．［２８］㊀鲍文楷，谢苗苗．城市土地利用的生态状况时空变化分析 以北京市房山区为例．绿色科技，２０１８（４）：１９６⁃２００．［２９］㊀ＣａｏＭＫ，ＷｏｏｄｗａｒｄＦＩ．Ｄｙｎａｍｉｃｒｅｓｐｏｎｓｅｓｏｆｔｅｒｒｅｓｔｒｉａｌｅｃｏｓｙｓｔｅｍｃａｒｂｏｎｃｙｃｌｉｎｇｔｏｇｌｏｂａｌｃｌｉｍａｔｅｃｈａｎｇｅ．Ｎａｔｕｒｅ，１９９８，３９３（６６８２）：２４９⁃２５２．［３０］㊀ＣａｏＭＫ，ＷｏｏｄｗａｒｄＦＩ．Ｎｅｔｐｒｉｍａｒｙａｎｄｅｃｏｓｙｓｔｅｍｐｒｏｄｕｃｔｉｏｎａｎｄｃａｒｂｏｎｓｔｏｃｋｓｏｆｔｅｒｒｅｓｔｒｉａｌｅｃｏｓｙｓｔｅｍｓａｎｄｔｈｅｉｒｒｅｓｐｏｎｓｅｓｔｏｃｌｉｍａｔｅｃｈａｎｇｅ．ＧｌｏｂａｌＣｈａｎｇｅＢｉｏｌｏｇｙ，１９９８，４（２）：１８５⁃１９８．［３１］㊀ＧｕＦＸ，ＺｈａｎｇＹＤ，ＨｕａｎｇＭ，ＴａｏＢ，ＹａｎＨＭ，ＧｕｏＲ，ＬｉＪ．ＮｉｔｒｏｇｅｎｄｅｐｏｓｉｔｉｏｎａｎｄｉｔｓｅｆｆｅｃｔｏｎｃａｒｂｏｎｓｔｏｒａｇｅｉｎＣｈｉｎｅｓｅｆｏｒｅｓｔｓｄｕｒｉｎｇ１９８１⁃２０１０．ＡｔｍｏｓｐｈｅｒｉｃＥｎｖｉｒｏｎｍｅｎｔ，２０１５，１２３：１７１⁃１７９．［３２］㊀张远东，庞瑞，顾峰雪，刘世荣．西南高山地区水分利用效率时空动态及其对气候变化的响应．生态学报，２０１６，３６（６）：１５１５⁃１５２５．［３３］㊀ＧｕＦＸ，ＺｈａｎｇＹＤ，ＨｕａｎｇＭ，ＴａｏＢ，ＬｉｕＺＪ，ＨａｏＭ，ＧｕｏＲ．Ｃｌｉｍａｔｅ⁃ｄｒｉｖｅｎｕｎｃｅｒｔａｉｎｔｉｅｓｉｎｍｏｄｅｌｉｎｇｔｅｒｒｅｓｔｒｉａｌｅｃｏｓｙｓｔｅｍｎｅｔｐｒｉｍａｒｙｐｒｏｄｕｃｔｉｖｉｔｙｉｎＣｈｉｎａ．ＡｇｒｉｃｕｌｔｕｒａｌａｎｄＦｏｒｅｓｔＭｅｔｅｏｒｏｌｏｇｙ，２０１７，２４６：１２３⁃１３２．［３４］㊀ＧｕＦＸ，ＺｈａｎｇＹＤ，ＨｕａｎｇＭ，ＴａｏＢ，ＧｕｏＲ，ＹａｎＣＲ．ＥｆｆｅｃｔｓｏｆｃｌｉｍａｔｅｗａｒｍｉｎｇｏｎｎｅｔｐｒｉｍａｒｙｐｒｏｄｕｃｔｉｖｉｔｙｉｎＣｈｉｎａｄｕｒｉｎｇ１９６１ ２０１０．ＥｃｏｌｏｇｙａｎｄＥｖｏｌｕｔｉｏｎ，２０１７，７（１７）：６７３６⁃６７４６．［３５］㊀ＨｅＨＬ，ＷａｎｇＳＱ，ＺｈａｎｇＬ，ＷａｎｇＪＢ，ＲｅｎＸＬ，ＺｈｏｕＬ，ＰｉａｏＳＬ，ＹａｎＨ，ＪｕＷＭ，ＧｕＦＸ，ＹｕＳＹ，ＹａｎｇＹＨ，ＷａｎｇＭＭ，ＮｉｕＺＥ，ＧｅＲ，ＹａｎＨＭ，ＨｕａｎｇＭ，ＺｈｏｕＧＹ，ＢａｉＹＦ，ＸｉｅＺＱ，ＴａｎｇＺＹ，ＷｕＢＦ，ＺｈａｎｇＬＭ，ＨｅＮＰ，ＷａｎｇＱＦ，ＹｕＧＲ．ＡｌｔｅｒｅｄｔｒｅｎｄｓｉｎｃａｒｂｏｎｕｐｔａｋｅｉｎＣｈｉｎａᶄｓｔｅｒｒｅｓｔｒｉａｌｅｃｏｓｙｓｔｅｍｓｕｎｄｅｒｔｈｅｅｎｈａｎｃｅｄｓｕｍｍｅｒｍｏｎｓｏｏｎａｎｄｗａｒｍｉｎｇｈｉａｔｕｓ．ＮａｔｉｏｎａｌＳｃｉｅｎｃｅＲｅｖｉｅｗ，２０１９，６（３）：５０５⁃５１４．［３６］㊀ＺｈａｎｇＬ，ＲｅｎＸＬ，ＷａｎｇＪＢ，ＨｅＨＬ，ＷａｎｇＳＱ，ＷａｎｇＭＭ，ＰｉａｏＳＬ，ＹａｎＨ，ＪｕＷＭ，ＧｕＦＸ，ＺｈｏｕＬ，ＮｉｕＺＥ，ＧｅＲ，ＬｉＹＹ，ＬｖＹ，ＹａｎＨＭ，ＨｕａｎｇＭ，ＹｕＧＲ．ＩｎｔｅｒａｎｎｕａｌｖａｒｉａｂｉｌｉｔｙｏｆｔｅｒｒｅｓｔｒｉａｌｎｅｔｅｃｏｓｙｓｔｅｍｐｒｏｄｕｃｔｉｖｉｔｙｏｖｅｒＣｈｉｎａ：ｒｅｇｉｏｎａｌｃｏｎｔｒｉｂｕｔｉｏｎｓａｎｄｃｌｉｍａｔｅａｔｔｒｉｂｕｔｉｏｎ．ＥｎｖｉｒｏｎｍｅｎｔａｌＲｅｓｅａｒｃｈＬｅｔｔｅｒｓ，２０１９，１４（１）：０１４００３．［３７］㊀ＹｕＬ，ＧｕＦＸ，ＨｕａｎｇＭ，ＴａｏＢ，ＨａｏＭ，ＷａｎｇＺＳ．Ｉｍｐａｃｔｓｏｆ１．５ħａｎｄ２ħｇｌｏｂａｌｗａｒｍｉｎｇｏｎｎｅｔｐｒｉｍａｒｙｐｒｏｄｕｃｔｉｖｉｔｙａｎｄｃａｒｂｏｎｂａｌａｎｃｅｉｎＣｈｉｎａᶄｓｔｅｒｒｅｓｔｒｉａｌｅｃｏｓｙｓｔｅｍｓ．Ｓｕｓｔａｉｎａｂｉｌｉｔｙ，２０２０，１２：２８４９．［３８］㊀ＧｕＦＸ，ＺｈａｎｇＹＤ，ＨｕａｎｇＭ，ＹｕＬ，ＹａｎＨＭ，ＧｕｏＲ，ＺｈａｎｇＬ，ＺｈｏｎｇＸＬ，ＹａｎＣＲ．Ｃｌｉｍａｔｅ⁃ｉｎｄｕｃｅｄｉｎｃｒｅａｓｅｉｎｔｅｒｒｅｓｔｒｉａｌｃａｒｂｏｎｓｔｏｒａｇｅｉｎｔｈｅＹａｎｇｔｚｅＲｉｖｅｒＥｃｏｎｏｍｉｃＢｅｌｔ．ＥｃｏｌｏｇｙａｎｄＥｖｏｌｕｔｉｏｎ，２０２１，１１（１２）：７２１１⁃７２２５．［３９］㊀ＹｕＬ，ＺｈｏｕＢＴ，ＸｕＹＱ，ＺｈａｎｇＹＸ，ＧｕＦＸ．ＰｒｏｊｅｃｔｉｏｎｓｏｆｔｈｅｎｅｔｐｒｉｍａｒｙｐｒｏｄｕｃｔｉｏｎｏｆｔｅｒｒｅｓｔｒｉａｌｅｃｏｓｙｓｔｅｍａｎｄｓｐａｔｉｏｔｅｍｐｏｒａｌｒｅｓｐｏｎｓｅｓｔｏｃｌｉｍａｔｅｃｈａｎｇｅｉｎｔｈｅＹａｎｇｔｚｅＲｉｖｅｒｅｃｏｎｏｍｉｃｂｅｌｔ．Ｄｉｖｅｒｓｉｔｙ，２０２２，１４（５）：３２７．［４０］㊀ＨｕｔｃｈｉｎｓｏｎＭＦ．Ａｎｅｗｏｂｊｅｃｔｉｖｅｍｅｔｈｏｄｆｏｒｓｐａｔｉａｌｉｎｔｅｒｐｏｌａｔｉｏｎｏｆｍｅｔｅｏｒｏｌｏｇｉｃａｌｖａｒｉａｂｌｅｓｆｒｏｍｉｒｒｅｇｕｌａｒｎｅｔｗｏｒｋｓａｐｐｌｉｅｄｔｏｔｈｅｅｓｔｉｍａｔｉｏｎｏｆｍｏｎｔｈｌｙｍｅａｎｓｏｌａｒｒａｄｉａｔｉｏｎ，ｔｅｍｐｅｒａｔｕｒｅ，ｐｒｅｃｉｐｉｔａｔｉｏｎａｎｄｗｉｎｄｒｕｎ．ＩｎＥ．Ａ．Ｆｉｔｚｐａｔｒｉｃｋ＆Ｊ．Ｄ．Ｋａｌｍａ（Ｅｄｓ．），Ｎｅｅｄｆｏｒｃｌｉｍａｔｉｃａｎｄｈｙｄｒｏｌｏｇｉｃａｌｄａｔａｉｎａｇｒｉｃｕｌｔｕｒｅｉｎｓｏｕｔｈ⁃ｅａｓｔＡｓｉａ．ＰｒｏｃｅｅｄｉｎｇｓｏｆｔｈｅＵｎｉｔｅｄＮａｔｉｏｎｓＵｎｉｖｅｒｓｉｔｙＷｏｒｋｓｈｏｐ，Ｄｅｃｅｍｂｅｒ１９８３．ＤｉｖｉｓｉｏｎｏｆＷａｔｅｒＲｅｓｏｕｒｃｅｓＴｅｃｈｎｉｃａｌＭｅｍｏｒａｎｄｕｍ８９／５（ｐｐ．９５⁃１０４）．Ｃａｎｂｅｒｒａ：ＣＳＩＲＯ，１９８９．［４１］㊀ＺｈｏｕＰ，ＺｈａｎｇＨＪ，ＨｕａｎｇＢ，ＪｉＹＬ，ＰｅｎｇＳＬ，ＺｈｏｕＴ．Ａｒｅｐｒｏｄｕｃｔｉｖｉｔｙａｎｄｂｉｏｄｉｖｅｒｓｉｔｙａｄｅｑｕａｔｅｐｒｅｄｉｃｔｏｒｓｆｏｒｒａｐｉｄａｓｓｅｓｓｍｅｎｔｏｆｆｏｒｅｓｔｅｃｏｓｙｓｔｅｍｓｅｒｖｉｃｅｓｖａｌｕｅｓ？ＥｃｏｓｙｓｔｅｍＳｅｒｖｉｃｅｓ，２０２２，５７：１０１４６６．。
The Effects of Climate Change on Food Security
The Effects of Climate Change on Food Security Climate change is a major threat to food security worldwide. The impacts of climate change on agriculture and food production are already being felt in many parts of the world, with changing weather patterns, more frequent extreme weather events, and rising sea levels leading to crop failures, food shortages, and hunger. In this essay, I will explore the effects of climate change on food security from multiple perspectives, including the impacts on agriculture and food production, the effects on food prices and availability, and the social and economic consequences of food insecurity.One of the most significant impacts of climate change on food security is its effect on agriculture and food production. Changing weather patterns, such as droughts, floods, and heatwaves, can have devastating consequences for crops, livestock, and fisheries. For example, droughts can lead to water shortages, reduced crop yields, and increased soil erosion, while floods can damage crops and infrastructure, and heatwaves can cause livestock to die from heat stress. These impacts can have serious consequences for food production, leading to food shortages, price increases, and reduced access to nutritious food.In addition to its impact on agriculture and food production, climate change also affects food prices and availability. As extreme weather events become more frequent and severe, food prices are likely to increase, making it more difficult for vulnerable populations to access nutritious food. For example, in 2010, a drought in Russia led to a ban on wheat exports, causing global wheat prices to rise by 60% in just a few months. This price increase had a significant impact on food security in many countries, particularly those that rely heavily on imported wheat.The social and economic consequences of food insecurity are also significant. Food insecurity can lead to malnutrition, which can have long-term health consequences, particularly for children. Malnutrition can also lead to reduced productivity and increased healthcare costs, which can have a negative impact on economic growth and development. In addition, food insecurity can lead to social unrest and conflict, particularly in areas where food is scarce and competition for resources is high.Despite these challenges, there are a number of strategies that can be used to address the impacts of climate change on food security. One approach is to promote sustainable agriculture practices, such as conservation agriculture, agroforestry, and integrated pest management. These practices can help to increase crop yields, improve soil quality, and reduce the impact of climate change on agriculture. Another approach is to promote food security through social protection programs, such as cash transfers, food vouchers, and school feeding programs. These programs can help to ensure that vulnerable populations have access to nutritious food, even in times of crisis.In conclusion, climate change is a major threat to food security worldwide. Its impacts on agriculture and food production, food prices and availability, and the social and economic consequences of food insecurity are significant. However, there are a number of strategies that can be used to address these challenges, including promoting sustainable agriculture practices and social protection programs. By working together to address the impacts of climate change on food security, we can ensure that everyone has access to nutritious food, even in the face of changing weather patterns and extreme weather events.。
中国区域全要素碳排放绩效及影响因素
三 、研究方法
生产率的测度方法可以归纳为两类 ： 参数方法和非参数方法。 数据包络分析法 DEA（ Data Envelopment Analysis） 是一种非参数方法， DEA 方法具有突出的优点： 第一， DEA 方法无需知道生产 相比较其他方法， DEA 采用最优化方法内生确定了各种投入要素 函数的具体形式， 可直接处理多投入和多产出情况 ； 第二， ， ， 的权重 排除了很多主观因素 特别适合复杂经济体的效率评价。 因此， 本文采用 DEA 方法来测度碳排放 绩效。 由于传统的 DEA 模型在评价决策单元的效率时， 希望投入越小越好， 而产出则越大越好。 而现实的 生产过程在投入一定生产要素后 ， 除了获得期望产出外， 往往伴随着废气、 废水等非期望产出。 因此在考虑 非期望产出时， 不适合直接套用传统的 DEA 模型， 必须对非期望产出进行转换处理。 本文采用 Seiford 和 ［18 ］ Zhu（ 2002 ） 提出的线性数据转换函数法对生产过程中的二氧化碳排放进行处理 。 设 C ij 为中国 i 年度 j max（ C i ） 为 i 年度最大的碳排放量， 省份的碳排放量， 取 ξ = max（ C i ） + 1 ， 则转化的碳排放期望产出可以表
［13 ］
放绩效并进行了收敛性分析； 魏梅等（ 2010 ） 因素进行了分析； 胡玉莹（ 2010 ） 效率。 刘明磊等（ 2011 ）
［15 ］ ［14 ］
利用 DEA 模型对中国各地区的碳排放效率及其长期影响
运用处理非期望产出的 SBM 模型计算了中国30 个省区的碳环境技术
利用非参数距离函数方法测度中国省级碳排放绩效 ， 并对边际减排成本进行了 基于 DEA 环境效率评价的思路， 测度了1998－2008 年中国29 个省级地区的碳排
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3State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Sciences, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China.
[3] In this study, climate variations refer to the changes in precipitation and panevaporation, while the soil and water conservation works (e.g., constructions of reservoir dams and silt retention dams), the regional water demand increases and the land cover changes over the Chaobai River are the mechanisms by which human activities may influence runoff. Presently, techniques for representing the effects of human activities on hydrologic responses are limited. For example, the SCS (Soil Conservation Service) curve number method, developed by the SCS of the USDA (United States Department of Agriculture) [Thompson, 1999; Beven, 2001], has been widely used for runoff simulations, and can be used for studying the effect of human activities on runoff. The MIKE SHE model, which is also widely used, describes the effects
Citation: Wang, G., J. Xia, and J. Chen (2009), Quantification of effects of climate variations and human activities on runoff by a monthly water balance model: A case study of the Chaobai River basin in northern China, Water Resour. Res., 45, W00A11, doi:10.1029/2007WR006768.
quantitative evaluation of the effects of climate variations and human activities on runoff in rivers is still limited. Usually, hydrologic models [Xu and Vandewiele, 1995; Yates, 1996; Liu et al., 2004; Chen et al., 2007] have been used to investigate the impacts of natural and human factors on the water cycle. In this study, a monthly water balance model is used to investigate the impacts and relative importance of climate variations and human activities on discharge in the Chaobai River in northern China.
WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH, VOL. 45, W00A11, doi:10.1029/2007WR006768, 2009
Quantification of effects of climate variations and human activities
on runoff by a monthly water balance model: A case study of the
Chaobai River basin in northern China
Gangsheng Wang,1,2 Jun Xia,1,3 and Ji Chen4
Received 15 December 2007; revised 23 September 2008; accepted 14 October 2008; published 7 January 2009.W00A111 Nhomakorabeaf 12
1Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.
[1] The Chaobai River basin in northern China consists of two major tributaries, the Chao River and Bai River. Monthly observations of precipitation, streamflow, and panevaporation data are available for 35 years (1961–1966 and 1973–2001). Using the annual time series of the observed streamflow, one break point at 1979 is detected and is adopted to divide the data set into two study periods, the ‘‘before’’ and ‘‘after’’ periods marking the onset of significant anthropogenic alteration of the flow (reservoirs and silt retention dams, five times increase in population) and significant changes in land use (conversion to terraced fields versus sloping fields). The distributed time-variant gain model (DTVGM) was used to evaluate the water resources of the area. Furthermore, the Bayesian method used by Engeland et al. (2005) was used in this paper to evaluate two uncertainty sources (i.e., the model parameter and model structure) and for assessing the DTVGM’s performance over the Chaobai River basin. Comparing the annual precipitation means over 13 years (1961–1966 and 1973–1979), the means of the second period (1980–2001) decreased by 5.4% and 4.9% in the Chao River and Bai River basins, respectively. However, the related annual runoff decreased by 40.3% and 52.8%, respectively, a much greater decline than exhibited by precipitation. Through the monthly model simulation and the fixing-changing method, it is determined that decreases in runoff between the two periods can be attributed to 35% (31%) from climate variations and 68% (70%) from human activities in the Chao River (Bai River). Thus, human impact exerts a dominant influence upon runoff decline in the Chaobai River basin compared to climate. This study enhances our understanding of the relative roles of climate variations and human activities on runoff.
4Department of Civil Engineering, University of Hong Kong, Pokfulam, Hong Kong.