2018年12月境外人民币市场综述

2018年12月境外人民币市场综述
A Summary of CNH Market Developments in December 2018
中国人民银行上海总部金融市场管理部
Financial Market Management Department, People’s Bank of China Shanghai Head Office
2018年11月末，香港、台湾地区和韩国人民币存款余额合计9352.78亿元，较上月增加0.86%。

12月份，香港人民币隔夜拆息小幅下降，月末报收1.726%，与上年末基本持平；香港人民币即期汇率月末报收6.869，比上月末微升1.15%，全年累计贬值5.48%。

境内外人民币即期汇率CNY和CNH全年平均汇差为102个基点，比去年缩小27个基点。

境内外可交割人民币远期汇差收于411个基点，较上月末缩小205个基点；2018年全年境外人民币债券发行规模共计1175.08亿元，为2017年发债规模的2.4倍；香港交易所、新加坡交易所和芝加哥商业交易所的人民币外汇期货成交活跃。

At end-November 2018, the aggregate CNH deposits in Hong Kong, T aiwan and South Korea totaled 935.278 billion yuan, up 0.86% from the previous month. In December, the CNH Hibor O/N fell slightly and closed at 1.726% at the end of the month, basically levelled with that of end-2017; the CNH HK spot rate closed at 6.869 at end-December, up 1.15% from end-November, or 5.48% for the whole year. The yearly average spread between the CNY and CNH spot rates was 102 bps, down 27 bps from last year. The spread between the CNY and CNH deliverable forward rates stood at 411 bps, down 205 bps from end-November. In 2018, the CNH bond issuance totaled 117.508 billion yuan, 2.4 times the issuance size in 2017; the CNH FX futures traded actively in the HKEx, SGX and CME.
一、境外人民币存款
2
018年11月末，香港、台湾地区和韩国人民币存款余额合计9352.78亿元，较上月增加0.86%。

其中，香港人民币存款6175.23亿元，比10月末增加2.67亿元。

台湾人民币存款规模3017.92亿元，较10月末下降2.17%。

韩国人民币存款余额104.04亿元，环比增加9.03%。

根据最新公布数据，2018年9月末，新加坡人民币存款余额1320亿元，比二季度末下降2.94%；6月末英国人民币存款余额681.5亿元，比一季度末下降12.86%。

O
ffshore RMB deposits
By end-November 2018, the outstanding CNH
deposits in Hong Kong, T aiwan and South Korea totaled 935.278 billion yuan, up 0.86% from the previous month. Among them, the CNH deposits in Hong Kong stood at 617.523 billion yuan, up 267 million yuan from end-October. The CNH deposits in T aiwan stood at 301.792 billion yuan, down 2.17% from end-October. The balance of CNH deposits in Korea was 10.404 billion yuan, up 9.03% from
the previous month. According to the latest data, by end-
11月末，香港所有货币存款余额132013.44亿港元，环比增加0.56%；外币存款余额65047.11亿港元，环比增加1.67%；人民币存款占香港总存款和香港所有外币存款的比重较上月略有下降，分别为5.28%和10.72%，降幅分别为0.69%和1.77%。

二、境外人民币利率
存款利率方面，12月份，香港10万元以下人民币1年期存款挂牌利率仍为0.59%，1年期港元存款利率为0.33%，仍低于人民币存款利率。

12月份，境外人民币货币市场各期限利率小幅下降。

Hibor隔夜拆借利率基本维持在低位平稳，28日升至2.436%，12月31日回落至1.726%，比11月末下降7个基点，与上年末Hibor隔夜拆息基本持平。

Hibor 与Shibor隔夜拆息全年平均利差为58个基点，远低于上年的153个基点。

Hibor7天拆借利率月末报收2.795%，比11月末下降28个基点，比上年末低20个基点；Hibor3个月拆借利率月末报收3.582%，比11月末下降65个基点，比上年末低122个基点。

三、境外人民币汇率
12月，境内外人民币对美元即期汇率CNY和CNH双向波动明显。

12月4日，CNY和CNH分别升至第四季度高点6.838和6.848，随后回落并呈小幅双向September 2018, the balance of CNH deposits in Singapore stood at 132 billion yuan, down 2.94% from end-Q2; the CNH deposits in the U.K. stood at 681.5 billion yuan by end-June, down 12.86% from end-Q1.
Offshore RMB interest rates
In terms of the deposit interest rate, in December, the quoted interest rate of CNH HK 1Y deposit of less than 0.1 million yuan remained at 0.59%, and the interest rate of HKD 1Y deposit was 0.33%, still well below that of CNH HK.
In December, the interest rates of various maturities in the CNH money market declined slightly. Hibor O/N maintained stable at a low level, rose to 2.436% on December 28 and fell to 1.726% on December 31, down 7 bps from end-November, or basically levelled with that of end-2017. The average spread between Hibor O/N and Shibor O/N was 58 bps, much lower than the 153 bps in the previous year. The Hibor 7D closed at 2.795% at the end of the month, down 28 bps from end-November, or down 20 bps from end-2017. The Hibor 3M closed at 3.582% by end-December, down 65 bps from end-November, or down 122 bps from the end-2017.
Offshore RMB exchange rates
In December, the CNY and CNH presented significant two-way fluctuations against the USD. The CNY and CNH appreciated to the high point of 6.838 and 6.848 in Q4 on December 4, then dropped and presented slight two-way fluctuations. On the last trading day of 2018, the CNY and CNH closed at 6.683 and 6.869 against the USD, up 1.24% and 1.15% respectively from the end of last month. The accumulative depreciation for the year was 5.63% and 5.48% respectively. The average yearly spread between CNY and CNH was 102 bps, down 27 bps from last year.
In the forwards market, the USD/CNH HKDF 1Y closed at 6.8705 on December 31, up 1237 bps from end-November or down 2252 bps from end-2017; the spread between USD/CNY DF 1Y and USD/CNH HKDF 1Y was 411 bps, down 205 bps from the end of last month; the USD/
CNH HKNDF 1Y closed at 6.892, up 1197 bps from end-
波动。

2018年最后一个交易日，CNY和CNH分别报收6.873和6.869，比上月末分别微升1.24%和1.15%，全年累计贬值分别为5.63%和5.48%。

CNY与CNH全年平均汇差为102个基点，比去年缩小27个基点。

远期市场方面,12月31日，香港可交割一年期人民币兑美元远期汇率报收6.8705，较上月末升1237个基点，比上年末贬2252个基点；境内外人民币一年期远期汇率之差为411个基点，较上月末缩小205个基点；香港不可交割一年期人民币兑美元远期汇率NDF 报收6.892，较上月末升1197个基点，比上年末贬2425个基点。

期货市场上，12月香港交易所美元兑人民币期货交易量环比回升，成交155094手合约，比上月增加12.9%，日均交易额81630万美元，全年成交175.5万手，是2017年成交量的2.4倍，年末持仓30797手。

新加坡交易所美元兑离岸人民币期货成交654125手，比上月增加13.6%，日均交易额327062.5万美元，全年成交量达533.9万手，是2017年成交量的2.8倍，年末持仓30293手。

当月芝加哥商业交易所美元兑离岸人民币期货成交18953手，比上月减少8.85%，日均成交9480万美元，全年成交量达11.7万手，是2017年成交量的5.9倍，年末持仓1107手。

12月份，香港交易所美元兑人民币（香港）期权成交2234手合约，比上月减少28.3%，日均交易额1180万美元，全年成交30067手，是上年成交量的2.9倍，年末持仓5625手。

四、境外人民币债券市场
12月份，境外人民币债券发行规模较小。

据彭博资讯统计，本月共6家机构发行6只人民币债券，规模总计27亿元，比上月发行规模减少88.7%。

主要发债主体为招商局置地、中国银行（东京）、伦敦瑞信股份公司等。

2018年全年境外人民币债券发行规模共计1175.08亿元，为2017年发债规模的2.4倍。

据香港金管局统计，12月末，由债务工具中央结算系统（CMU）托管的人民币债券余额为1641.6亿元,环比减少2.81%，比上年同期减少16.3%；CMU托
November, or down 2425 bps from end-2017.
In the futures market, in the HKEx, the trading volume of USD/CNH futures picked up in December. 155094 lots of contracts were concluded with an average daily trading worth of US$816.3 million, up 12.9% month-on-month. 1.755 million lots of CNH futures were traded throughout the year, 2.4 times that in 2017. 30797 lots of CNH futures were held at year-end. In the SGX, 654125 lots of USD/CNH futures were traded, up 13.6% month-on-month, with an average daily trading worth of US$3.270625 billion. 5.339 million lots of USD/CNH futures were traded throughout the year, 2.8 times that in 2017. 30293 lots of USD/CNH FX futures were held at year-end. In the CME, the trading volume of USD/CNH futures totaled 18953 lots, down 8.85% month-on-month, with an average daily trading worth of US$94.8 million. 117 thousand lots of USD/CNH futures were traded throughout the year, 5.9 times that in 2017. 1107 lots of USD/CNH futures were held at year-end.
In December, 2234 lots of USD/CNH HK options contracts were traded in the HKEx, down 28.3% month-on-month, with an average daily trading worth of US$11.8 million. 7914 lots of USD/CNH HK options were traded throughout the year, 2.9 times that in 2017. 5625 lots of USD/CNH HK options were held at year-end.
Offshore RMB bond market
The scale of CNH bonds issuance was relatively small in December. According to the Bloomberg figures, 6 institutions issued 6 CNH bonds this month, raising 2.7 billion yuan, down 88.7% from the previous month. In 2018, the scale of CNH bond issuance totaled 117.508 billion yuan, 2.4 times the issuance size in 2017.
According to HKMA statistics, by end-December, the outstanding balance of CNH bonds deposited in the Central Moneymarkets Unit (CMU) amounted to 164.16 billion yuan, down 2.81% month-on-month, or down 16.3% y-o-y. The CNH bonds deposited in and settled by CMU traded 11.096
billion yuan in the secondary market, down 26.4% month-on-
管的人民币债券二级市场成交量为110.96亿元,环比减少26.4%，比上年同期减少18.4%。

从市场走势来看，12月份，富时—中银香港离岸人民币债券综合指数继续上升，月末报131.11，高于上月末的130.11，也高于上年末的124.67。

12月末，香港各期限人民币国债收益率较上月末均有所下降，但普遍高于境内国债同期限收益率，其中1年期国债收益率高于境内同期限国债收益率80个基点，但低于上年末的59个基点。

五、境外人民币市场动态
12月10日，中国人民银行与乌克兰国家银行续签了中乌（克兰）双边本币互换协议，旨在促进双边贸易和投资以发展两国经济。

协议规模为150亿元人民币/620亿格里夫纳，协议有效期三年，经双方同意可以展期。

12月17日，匈牙利在银行间债券市场成功发行20亿元人民币债券，期限3年，票面年利率4.3%。

这是匈牙利第二次在中国银行间市场发行人民币债券，匈牙利也由此成为首个重返银行间市场的欧洲主权类发行人。

12月28日，国际货币基金组织（IMF）更新的数据显示，截至2018年第三季度，官方外汇储备币种构成调查（COFER）报送国持有的人民币储备规模为1925.4亿美元，较二季度减少4.3亿美元，在整体已分配外汇储备中占比1.8%，二季度占比为1.84%。

这是IMF单独列出人民币外汇储备的持有情况以来，人民币外汇储备规模和占比首次出现下降。

环球银行间金融通信协会（SWIFT）的最新报告数据显示，2018年11月人民币再次成为国际支付第五大活跃货币，其份额从10月的1.7%升至2.09%，创三个月来的最高水平。

2018年11月人民币支付金额相比2018年10月上升13.66%，而同期其他所有支付货币的结算总额下跌7.4%。

month, or down 18.4% y-o-y.
In December, the FTSE-BOCHK CNH bond comprehensive index continued to rise and closed at 131.11 by end-December, higher than the 130.11 at end-November and also higher than the 124.67 at end-2017. At end-December, the yields of all varieties of the CNH HK T-bonds decreased slightly from end-November, still generally higher than those of the corresponding CNY varieties.
Offshore RMB market developments
On December 10, the People's Bank of China and the National Bank of Ukraine renewed the bilateral currency swap agreement, aiming to promote bilateral trade and investment and support economic development. The size of the agreement is RMB 15 billion / UHR 62 billion. The agreement will be valid for three years and can be extended by mutual agreement.
On December 17, Hungary successfully issued 2 billion yuan bonds in the interbank bond market. The three-year bond carries a 4.3% coupon. This is the second RMB-denominated bond Hungary has issued in China’s interbank market, and Hungary has thus become the first European sovereign issuer returning to the interbank market.
On December 28, the updated IMF data showed that as of Q3 2018, the size of RMB reserves held by the reporting countries of COFER stood at US$192.54 billion, down US$430 million from Q2, accounting for 1.8% of the total allocated FX reserves, as compared to the 1.84% in Q2. This is the first time that the size and share of RMB reserves have ever declined since IMF began to issue the world’s holdings of the RMB-denominated forex reserves.
The latest SWIFT data shows in November 2018, the RMB has regained its position as the fifth most active currency for domestic and international payments by value, with the share rising to 2.09% from 1.7% in October. RMB payments value increased by 13.66% compared to October 2018, whilst in general all payments currencies decreased by 7.40%.
执笔人：王丽洁。