中国农业银行公开发售

中国农业银行公开发售

Agricultural Bank of China

中国农业银行

Listing or capsizing?

上市亦或覆灭？

A huge public offering tests global sentiment about China

巨额公开发售考验着全球对于中国的情感

Jun 10th 2010 | HONG KONG

THE long-planned public offering of Agricultural Bank of China (ABC) is being launched in a market storm. For devout believers in China, ABC’s 320m customers, in a sector largely shielded from competition, are reason enough to go ahead regardless of turbulent conditions. Others think that it is madness for a company with a sketchy record and no desperate need for capital to come forward now, and they whisper that the deal cannot possibly get done.

经过长时间规划的中国农业银行公开发售在一场市场风暴中启动了。对于中国的虔诚信徒而言，在一个受到庇护而在极大程度上免于竞争的领域，中国农业银行的三亿两千万顾客就足以成为上市的理由，不管情况有多么混乱。其他人则认为一个只有粗略记录且并不是急需资金向前发展的公司这么做简直是疯狂，他们认为这笔交易不可能达成。

The bank’s listing process will be a prolonged test of sentiment on China. On June 9th the bank was approved for listing in Shanghai. It was due to be approved by the Hong Kong stock exchange the next day. On June 14th underwriters will begin pitching to clients. A number of sovereign-wealth funds are said to be lined up as investors, along with as many state-affiliated Chinese institutions as may be necessary. Pricing will be on July 6th—long enough for enthusiasm, or panic, to take hold.

中国农行的上市进程将会是对中国的情感的长久考验。6月9日，该行获得批准于上海证交所上市，且原本将于第二天（6月10日）获批在香港证交所上市。6月14日承销行将开始向客户推销。据说，大量主权财富基金争相希望成为投资者，此外还有许多中国国有机构（也许这是必要的）。其股价将会于7月6日定价——有足够长的时间可以使热情与恐慌生根。

Bulls make two arguments. The first is ABC’s market position. According to a preliminary offering document released in Shanghai, it has 23,624 branches, by far the most of any bank in the world. It holds over $1 trillion in deposits, many paying low interest, meaning it has come close to the banking fantasy of free money. Its scattered operations position it perfectly for a spread of wealth inland.

可能存在买空投机行为有两点论据。第一个是中国农行的市场定位。根据在上海发布的预备发售文件表明，农行拥有2，3624个分支机构，迄今为止比世界上任何一家银行的分支机构

都要多。农行持有超过1万亿美元的储蓄，许多存款支付的是低利率，意味着农行已经接近于获得免费资金的银行美梦。农行广泛分布的机构使其非常好地广泛定位于富饶的内陆地区。

The second leg of the bullish case rests on the benefits that will accrue if ABC can become more efficient. Were it to close the gap with other Chinese banks in its cost-income ratio, for example, the impact on its bottom line would be dramatic. Already, as part of a government-led cleanup, its proportion of non-performing loans has fallen from 24% in 2007 to 3% in 2009.

存在买空投机风险的第二个论据在于如若农行更为高效将会获得的利益。例如，如若农行要缩小与其他中国的银行在成本收入比率上的差距，对其账本底线的影响将会十分巨大。作为政府主导的清算的一部分，其不良贷款的比率已经由2007年的24%下降到2009年的3%。

That, however, leads straight to the sceptical view of ABC. Its vast network is inefficient. Past credit decisions have resulted in staggering losses. In 2008 the Ministry of Finance took 818 billion yuan ($120 billion) of bad loans off ABC’s books in exchange for an equity stake worth $19 billion; Central Huijin Investment, a state investment vehicle, injected another $19 billion in capital.

然而，这直接导致了对中国农行的怀疑观点。其庞大的网络效率很低。过去的信贷决定已经导致了大量损失。2008年财政部将8180亿元（1200亿美元）的不良贷款从中国农行的账本中消除用以交换价值190亿美元的股权。国有投资机构中央汇金投资公司注入了另一笔190亿美元的资金。

Its books may have had a facelift but ABC’s branches remain grotty and underused. Its staff, of more than 440,000, will need to be transformed from bureaucrats to commercially oriented bankers. As recently as last year the government re-emphasised the need for ABC to continue a sannong policy, meaning a commitment to agriculture, rural areas and peasants. One of the surprises in the initial prospectus is how small and profitable this business is said to be. Sceptics think it loses money.

中国农行的账本也许已经做过“整容”，但是其分支机构依旧效率低下，未能得到充分利用。而农行的44,0000名员工将需要从官僚主义者转变为以商业为导向的银行从业者。就在去年，政府重新强调了农行继续实施三农政策的的必要性，意味着致力于服务农业，农村和农民。令人惊奇的事情之一就是在农行的首次招股书中竟然称其业务规模小，盈利少。持怀疑态度的人认为农行是亏本的。

These narrow concerns are on top of broader fears about the banking system. As part of its stimulus programme in 2009 lending by every financial institution in China spiked dramatically. The inevitable consequence will be a welter（混乱）of bad loans. In particular, there is concern about banks’ property lending. Even though ABC is not thought to be a backer of the big developers, it could suffer. The bank is also exposed to suspect municipal projects.

除了这些狭隘的关切外，还有对于银行体系的广泛担忧。作为2009年刺激计划的一部分，中国每个金融机构的贷款都激增。这造成的一个不可避免的后果就是混乱的不良贷款。外界对该行的房地产贷款尤为担忧。尽管中国农行并不被认为是大开发商的一个支持者，农行可能会遭殃。该行也与可疑的市政建设工程有关。