ResearctotheCurrentSituationofSmallandMedium-SizedEnterprisesPublicServicePlatformofChina

合集下载

2024北京朝阳高二(上)期末英语(教师版)

2024北京朝阳高二（上）期末英语(考试时间100分钟满分100分)第一部分知识运用(共三节，30分)第一节完形填空(共10小题；每小题1分，共10分)阅读下面短文，掌握其大意，从每题所给的A、B、C、D四个选项中，选出最佳选项，并在答题卡上将该项涂黑。

I was in my home office on a cold Sunday when I heard a quick knock on the door. I ___1___ downstairs, threw open the door and saw my dad ___2___ something. wrapped up in paper in his arms. Strangely, he had given no hint (暗示) of it when we spoke on the phone last night.“Open it.” he said.I opened it to find a yellow begonia (秋海棠) It occurred to me that it was Mother’s Day.“But···but I’m not a mother.” I said, ___3___.My dad smiled, “Well, some special people aren’t mothers. but I think they ___4___ to get flowers, too.” With that, he hugged me and drove off.Later, I called to thank him and we got to talking a lot. That’s when he let me in on his little ___5___. He had decided that he would challenge himself to do one act of ___6___ per day. It had started several weeks before when he accidentally knew a friend of his was having a rough day. He knew she loved ice cream, so he drove straight to her house with a huge tub of ice cream.“She laughed ___7___ when she saw it,” he said, “It really delighted me to know that I had ___8___ her day.”When asked why, he added, “I already know about the importance of being ___9___ in the moment. So, I try to be there with each person I am spending time with. I want them to feel important and believe in the goodness in people in that moment.”I realized my dad was making a difference in people’s lives. ___10___, I also want to be more like my dad, who goes out of his way to make people feel loved and cared for.1. A. fell B. waited C. raced D. looked2. A. shaking B. pulling C. holding D. collecting3. A. annoyed B. confused C. worried D. disappointed4. A. deserve B. decide C. promise D. pretend5. A. celebration B. joke C. secret D. excuse6. A. faith B. courage C. appreciation D. kindness7. A. coldly B. excitedly C. proudly D. nervously8. A. kept B. spent C. predicted D. brightened9. A. present B. healthy C. patient D. humorous10. A. Depressed B. Inspired C. Terrified D. Astonished第二节选词填空(共10小题；每小题1分，共10分)(请务必将第11至20题的答案写在答题卡指定区域内)阅读下面句子，根据句意，从方框中选择恰当的词或词组，并用其正确形式填空。

2021年12月大学英语CET四级预测押题卷一和答案解析

2021年12月四级考试预测押题卷（一）Part I Writing(30minutes)Directions:For this part,you are allowed30minutes to write a letter to offer your suggestions to your cousin who sought your advice on how to make his resume distinctive.You should write at least120words but no more than 180words.Part II Listening Comprehension(25minutes)Section ADirections:In this section,you will hear three news reports.At the end of each conversation,you will hear four questions.Both the news report and the questions will be spoken only once.After you hear a question,you must choose the best answer from the four choices marked A),B),C)and D).Then mark the corresponding letter on Answer Sheet1with a single line through the centre.Questions1and2are based on the news report you have just heard.1.A)Two.B)Three.C)Four.D)Five.2.A)He called the police after the accident.B)He broke his arm in the accident.C)He was caught taking drugs.D)He was arrested by the police.Questions3and4are based on the news report you have just heard.3.A)A cure to brain cancer.B)A new surgical instrument.C)A pen that can identify cancerous tissue.D)A new drug that can eliminate cancerous tissue.4.A)Finding the border between the cancerous and normal tissue.B)Identifying the accuracy rate of the new device.C)Improving their speed of removing a tumour.D)Using the new device in brain surgery.Questions5to7are based on the news report you have just heard.5.A)To collect scientific data on it.C)To take photos of the storm on it.B)To monitor the storm on it.D)To investigate its environment.6.A)It has lasted for nearly350years.B)It has lasted for more that350months.C)It seems to be getting smaller.D)It seems to be getting larger.7.A)What initially caused the storm.C)What is the impact of the storm.B)What is underneath the storm.D)What makes the storm last for so long.Section BDirections：In this section,you will hear two long conversations.At the end of each conversation,you will hear four questions.Both the conversation and the questions will be spoken only once.After you hear a question,you must choose the best answer from the four choices marked A),B),C),and D).Then mark the corresponding letter on Answer Sheet1with a single line through the centre.Questions8to11are based on the conversation you have just heard.8.A)It’s for disabled adults.B)It’s in a sports centre.C)It’s rewarding and challenging.D)It’s compulsive in her community.9.A)The skills they need.B)The products they have.C)The market they target.D)The language they require.10.A)Diversify markets and sales strategies.B)Reduce costs and jobs.C)Learn from other companies.D)Listen to the opinions of experts.11.A)The salary and the workload.B)The office hour and the penalty system.C)The welfare and the holiday system.D)The ethical policy and the carbon footprint.Questions12to15are based on the conversation you have just heard.12.A)Double-decker buses.B)The traffic in London.C)Bus routes.D)Travels in Britain.13.A)It has no windows.B)People get onto it at the front.C)It has two carriages.D)It is open at the back.14.A)Uncomfortable.B)Noisy.C)Dangerous.D)Shabby.15.A)Bendy buses can help reduce the traffic jam.B)Bendy buses are more environmentally friendly.C)Bendy buses are convenient for people in wheelchairs.D)Bendy buses are more popular among tourists.Section CDirections:In this section,you will hear three passages.At the end of each passage,you will hear some questions. Both the passage and the questions will be spoken only once.After you hear a question,you must choose the best answer from the four choices marked A),B),C)and D).Then mark the corresponding letter on Answer Sheet1 with a single line through the centre.Questions16to18are based on the passage you have just heard.16.A)They had four toes.B)They were not as big as dogs.C)They lived in South America.D)They lived in thick forests.17.A)They had long legs and a long tail.B)They were smaller and had front eyes.C)They began to eat grass as well as fruit.D)They were bigger and had long legs.18.A)They evolved into donkeys in Asia and Africa.B)They used their long legs to run south to South Africa.C)They began to eat apples on the North American plains.D)They preferred grass to fruit and vegetables.Questions19to21are based on the passage you have just heard.19.A)Being rejected by friends and teachers.B)Staying away from his native land.C)Adapting to new study expectations.D)Keeping a balance between study and job.20.A)Talking with older brothers or sisters.C)Starting a conversation with close friends.B)Having a casual talk with a college student.D)Playing with friends on the same sports team.21.A)Follow traditions of with a college student.C)Respect the customs of different colleges.B)Take part in as many activities as possible.D)Take others’advice as reference only.Questions22to25are based on the passage you have just heard.22.A)They tend to harm wildlife.C)They are thrown away everywhere.B)They are hardly recyclable.D)They are made from useless materials.23.A)It is fatal.B)It is weird.C)It is very serious.D)It is complicated.24.A)The sea creatures that have taken in then are consumed by humans.B)The ocean’s ecology has been polluted and affected humans.C)Humans eat the seabirds that have swallowed plastic particles.D)Humans consume the fish that have eaten sea creatures with them.25.A)Its use has been drastically reduced.C)Most products use natural materials.B)It is still an indispensable material.D)The use of plastic items will be charged.PartⅢReading Comprehension(40minutes)Section ADirections:In this section,there is a passage with ten blanks.You are required to select one word for each blank from a list of choices given in a word bank following the passage.Read the passage through carefully before making your choices.Each choice in the bank is identified by a letter.Please mark the corresponding letter for each item on Answer Sheet2with a single line through the centre.You may not use any of the words in the bank more than once.Questions26to35are based on the following passage.A third of the planet’s land is severely degraded and fertile soil is being lost at the rate of24bn tonnes a year, according to a new United Nations-backed study that calls for a shift away from destructively intensive agriculture, The alarming____26____,which is forecast to continue as demand for food and productive land increases,will ass to the risks of conflicts unless____27____actions are implemented,warns the institution behind the report.“As the ready supply of healthy and productive land dries up and the population grows,competition is ___28___for land within countries and globally,”said executive secretary of the UN Convention to Combat Desertification(UNCCD)at the launch of the Global Land Outlook.“To___29____the losses,the outlook suggests it is in all our interests to step back and rethink how we are managing the pressures and the competition.”The Global Land Outlook is____30____as the most comprehensive study of its type,mapping the interlinked impacts of urbanization,climate change,erosion and forest loss.But the biggest factor is the___31___of industrial farming.Heavy tilling,multiple harvests ans___32____use of agrochemicals have increased yields at the____33____of long-term sustainability.If the past20years,agricultural production has increased threefold and the amount of irrigated land has doubled,notes a paper in the outlook by the Joint Research Centre(JRC)of the European commission.Over time,however,this___34___fertility and can lead to abandonment of land and ___35___desertification.A)absorb I)limitedB)abundant J)minimizeC)billed K)occasionallyD)decline L)optimizesE)diminishes M)rateF)expansion N)remedialG)expense O)ultimatelyH)intensifyingSection BDirections:In this section,you are going to read a passage with ten statements attached to it.Each statement contains information given in one of the paragraphs.Identify the paragraph from which the information is derived. You may choose a paragraph more than once.Each paragraph is marked with a letter.Answer the questions by marking the corresponding letter on Answer Sheet2.Take Naps at Work.Apologize to No One[A]In the past two weeks I’ve taken three naps at work,a total of an hour or so of shut-eye while on the clock.And I have no shame or uncertainty about doing it.I couldn’t feel better about it,and my productivity reflects it,too.[B]Sleeping on the job is one of those workplace taboos-like leaving your desk for lunch or taking an afternoon walk-that we’re taught to look down on.If someone naps at2p.m.while the rest of us furiously write memos and respond to emails,surely it must mean they’re slacking off(偷懒).Or so the assumption goes.[C]Restfulness and recharging can take a back seat to the perception and appearance of productivity.It’s easier to stay on a virtual hamster(仓鼠)wheel of activity by immediately responding to every email than it is to measure aggregate productivity over a greater period of time.But a growing field of occupational and psychological research is building the case for restfulness in pursuit of greater productivity.[D]Companies are suffering from tremendous productivity problems because people are stressed out and not recovering from the workday,said Josh Bersin,Principal and Founder of Bersin by Deloitte.“They’re beginning to realize that this is their problem,and they can’t just say to people,‘Here’s a work-life balance course,go teach yourself how to manage your inbox,’”Mr.Bersin said.“It’s way more complicated than that.”[E]To be sure,the ability to nap at work is far from widespread,experts said.Few among us have the luxury of being able to step away for a half-hour snoozefest.But lunch hours and coffee breaks can be great times to duck out,and your increased productivity and alertness will be all the evidence you need to make your case to inquiring bosses.[F]In an ideal world,we’d all solve this problem by unplugging early and getting a good night’s sleep. Here’s our guide on how to do just that.But the next best thing is stealing away for a quick power nap when you’re dragging after lunch.[G]In a study published in Nature Neuroscience,researchers tested subjects on their perceptual performance four times throughout the day.Performance deteriorated with each test,but subjects who took a30-minute nap between tests stopped the deterioration in performance,and those who took a60-minute nap even reversed it.[H]“Naps had the same magnitude of benefits as full nights of sleep if they had a quality of nap.”said Sara Mednick,a co-author of the study and associate professor of psychology at the University of California,Riverside.[I]Dr.Mednick,a sleep researcher and the author of Take a Nap!Change Your Life,said daytime napping can have many of the benefits of overnight sleep,and different types of naps offer specific benefits.[J]For example,Dr.Mednick said a20-to60-minute nap might help with memorization and learning specific bits of information.It’s just long enough to enter stage-two sleep,or non-rapid eye movement(R.E.M.)sleep.[K]After60minutes,you start getting into R.E.M.sleep,most often associated with that deep,dreaming state we all enjoy at night R.E.M.sleep can improve creativity,perceptual processing and highly associativethinking,which allows you to make connections between disparate ideas,Dr.Mednick said.Beyond that,your best bet is a90-minute nap,which will give you a full sleep cycle.[L]Any nap,however,can help with alertness and perception and cut through the general fog that creeps in during the day,experts said.[M]So how did we even arrive at this point where aptitude is inextricably tied(紧密相连)to working long, concentrated hours?Blame technology,but think broader than smartphones and laptops;the real issue is that tech has enabled us to be available at all times.[N]“We went through a period where people were in denial and business leaders were ignoring it,”Mr. Bersin said.“They were assuming that if we give people more tools,more emails,more Slack,more chatter,and we’ll just assume they can figure out how to deal with it all.And I think they’ve woken up to the fact that this is a big problem,and it is affecting productivity,engagement,health,safety,wellness and all sorts of things.”[O]It isn’t just office workers who can benefit from an afternoon siesta(午睡).A2015study published in Current Biology looked at the at the sleeping habits of three hunter-gatherer preindustrial societies in Tanzania, Namibia and Bolivia.[P]“They’re active in the morning,then they get in the shade under the trees and have a sort of quiet time, but they’re not generally napping,”said Jerome Siegel,professor of psychiatry and biobehavioral sciences,and director of the U.C.L.A.Center for Sleep Research,a co-author of the study.“Then they do some work and go to sleep,and they sleep through the night.”[Q]Still,Mr.Siegel said,“the only genuine way to solve daytime sleepiness and fatigue starts the night before with a solid night’s sleep.”The real Holy Grail of restfulness is a regular sleep schedule with ideally seven or eight hours of sleep each night,which experts say is optimal.[R]“Daytime napping certainly does increase alertness,”Mr.Siegel said.“But it’s not as simple as going to the gas station and filling the tank.”[S]He also advises avoiding caffeine late in the day and waking around the same time every morning,even if you can’t get to sleep at the same time every night,This helps acclimate(使适应)your body to your regular wake-up time,regardless of how much sleep you got the night before.[T]So if you’ve made it this far and you’re interested in giving workday naps a try(or just starting to nod off),here’s a quick guide to the perfect nap;Find a quiet,unoccupied space where you won’t be disturbed.Try to make your area as dim as possible(or invest in a sleep mask you can keep in the office).Earplugs might help.too.Aim for around20minutes.Any longer than that and you’re likely to wake up with sleep inertia(睡眠惰性)，which will leave you even groggier(头脑昏沉的)than before.36.Participants’perceptual performance became better after sleeping one hour between tests in an article inNature Neuroscience.37.Jerome Siegel found that only by sleeping soundly through the previous night could people tackle theirweariness during the day.38.Our talent is closely bound to working with concentration for long periods of time because technologymakes us accessible24/7.39.Taking a nap at work is normally regarded as laziness that should be held in contempt and avoided inworkplace.40.Between20to60minutes,people can get into non-REM sleep which may improve memory and learningability according to Dr.Mednick.41.People can doze off at lunch and coffee breaks and defended themselves by saying their improvedproductivity and alertness when bosses investigated their whereabouts.42.The author’s tips on taking a perfect nap involve sleeping place,environment and duration.43.The author believes business leaders are aware that availability at any time due to technology has negativeeffects on every aspect of people’s life.44.The optimal length of a nap was an hour and a half so that people could go through a complete sleep cycle.45.Josh Bersin mentioned the cause of companies’big productivity problems and the solution which needsmore that just employees’efforts.Section CDirections:There are2passages in this section.Each passage is followed by some questions or unfinished statements.For each of them there are four choices marked A),B),C)and D).You should decide on the best choice and mark the corresponding letter on Answer Sheet2with a single line through the centre.Passage OneQuestions46to50are based on the following passage.Every office worker hates meetings.But it’s a strange sort of hate,similar to the hatred of Londoners for the Northern Line,or New Yorkers for tourists who walk too slowly:the dislike is real,yet if the despised thing were to vanish,it’d be like surrendering a piece of your soul.When researchers probed into why people put up with the strain that meetings place on their time and sanity, they found something-those who resent and dread meetings the moat also defend them as a“necessary evil”, sometimes with great passion.True,research suggests that meetings take up vastly more of the average manager’s time than they used to.True,done badly,they’re associated with lower levels of innovation and employee wellbeing(幸福).But that’s just office life,right?It’s not supposed to be fun.That’s why they call it work.Underlying(引起)this attitude is an assumption that’s drummed into us not just as workers but as children, parents and romantic partners;that more communication is always a good thing.So suggestions abound for(大量存在)communicating better in meetings-for example,hold them standing up,so speakers will come to the point more quickly.But even when some companies consider abolishing meetings entirely,the principle that more communication is better isn’t questioned.If anything,it’s reinforced when such firms introduce“flat”management structures,with bosses always available to everyone,plus plenty of electronic distraction.In fact,constant connectivity is disastrous for both job satisfaction and the bottom line.And anyway,once you give it three seconds’thought,isn’t it cleat that more communication frequently isn’t a good thing?Often,the difference between a successful marriage and a second-rate one consists of leaving about three or four things a day unsaid.At work,it’s surely many more than four,though for a different reason;office communication comes at the cost of precisely the kind of focus that’s essential to good work.Yet we’re so accustomed to seeing talking as a source of solutions-for resolving conflicts or finding new ideas-that it’s hard to see when it is the problem.46.What does the author say about meetings?A)Londoners hate them as well as the Northern Line.B)They can help to keep workers’physical and spiritual health.C)Workers might be reluctant to give up them completely.D)New Yorkers dislike meetings more than Londoners.47.What did researchers find about people’s attitude towards meeting?A.Their attitude and behavior are paradoxical.B)People who hate meetings the most are senior insane.C)Those who like meetings might be considered insane.D)More meetings are regarded as a sign of less innovation.48.Why do people think that more communication is always a good thing?A)Because the concept is firmly believed by workers.B)Because everyone loves to communicate with others.C)Because the idea has been instilled into people’s mind.D)Because communication is vital for building relationships.49.What does the author think of the“flat”management structure?A)It forces bosses to frequently contact their employees.B)It helps to soften employees’bottom line of work.C)It is definitely a disaster to employees’job satisfaction.D)It strengthens people’s deeply-rooted notion of communication.50.What is the author’s argument about office communication?A)It is an effective way to solve office conflicts.B)It affects work efficiency in a negative way.C)It should come to a halt at intervals.D)It is useful for workers to find new ideas.Passage TwoQuestions51to55are based on the following passage.The Internet has enabled the spread of information at lightning speed.This information revolution has created tremendous business opportunities for online publishers,but not all of them maintain proper quality-control mechanisms to ensure that only good information is being shared.Instead,many publishers aim simply to make money by whatever means possible,with no regard for the implications for society at large.When selfish publishers set up shops online,the primary goal is to publish as much as possible,often at the cost of quality.In this respect,many publishers start numerous online journals focused on overlapping(重叠的)disciplines—to increase their total number of published papers—and hire young business managers who do not have any experience in either science or publishing.In some cases,online publishers even give up peer review, while still presenting themselves as scientific journals—deception designed to take advantage of scientists who simply want to share their research.If publishers structure their business to make more revenue,it often does harm to their products.When publishers start journals with overlapping domains,in combination with the pressure to publish more studies,this could promote the publication of marginal or even questionable articles.Moreover,publishers with multiple overlapping journals and journals with very narrow specialties(专业)increase the demands on the time and efforts of willing reviewers.With the fact that reviewers are generally not compensated for their time and effort,journal editors are often unable to find enough reviewers to keep up with the increased publication rate.To improve the situation and increase the trust in scientific community,the pressure to publish must be reduced.Funding and promotion decisions should not be based on the number of publications,but on the quality of those publications and a researcher’s long-term productivity and instructions.And that’s just the start.We need additional mechanisms,such as Beall’s list of predatory(掠夺的)publishers, to alert scientists to fake journals and fake articles.In addition,the price for online publication must be controlled and a mechanism must be put in place to honor and reward hard-working reviewers.51.What does the author think of online publishers?A)A small proportion of them can guarantee their publishing quality.B)They have lots of opportunities to renovate their business models.C)Many of them tend to try every means to make a buck.D)Social impact is their first priority when publishing books.52.It can be inferred from the second paragraph that______.A)peer review generally is a criterion to identify academic journalsB)researchers focus their research on the combination of disciplinesC)scientists care about their publications rather than researchD)young business managers are willing to face new challenges53.Why can’t publishers find enough reviewers to review papers?A)Reviewers are pressed for time when reviewing articles.B)Reviewers’gains can’t make up for what they have done.C)Publishers may compel reviewers to accept marginal articles.D)Publishers urge reviewers to increase publication rate rapidly.54.What is the author’s suggestion for online publication?A)More weight should be put on the quantity of publications.B)It is worthwhile to reward diligent reviewers for their effort.C)Fake journals should be reported to a regulatory organization.D)The price of online publication should be lowered greatly.55.What is the main idea of this passage?A)Online publishers should take measures to fight against fake scientific journals.B)Online publishers are pursuing their work efficiency at the cost of quality.C)Online publishers business models are quite likely to harm their publications.D)Online publishers are sacrificing the quality of research articles to make money.PartⅣTranslation(30minutes)Directions:For this part,you are allowed30minutes to translate a passage from Chinese intoEnglish.You should write your answer on Answer Sheet2.春节是中国的传统节日，相当于美国的圣诞节。

上海市金山区上海交大南洋中学2022-2023学年高三英语第一学期期末检测试题含解析

2022-2023高三上英语期末模拟试卷注意事项：1．答卷前，考生务必将自己的姓名、准考证号、考场号和座位号填写在试题卷和答题卡上。

用2B铅笔将试卷类型（B）填涂在答题卡相应位置上。

将条形码粘贴在答题卡右上角"条形码粘贴处"。

2．作答选择题时，选出每小题答案后，用2B铅笔把答题卡上对应题目选项的答案信息点涂黑；如需改动，用橡皮擦干净后，再选涂其他答案。

答案不能答在试题卷上。

3．非选择题必须用黑色字迹的钢笔或签字笔作答，答案必须写在答题卡各题目指定区域内相应位置上；如需改动，先划掉原来的答案，然后再写上新答案；不准使用铅笔和涂改液。

不按以上要求作答无效。

4．考生必须保证答题卡的整洁。

考试结束后，请将本试卷和答题卡一并交回。

第一部分（共20小题，每小题1.5分，满分30分）1．—What's wrong with him? He seemed upset.—He had to give up his drawing, not because he wanted ________ that way but because he had to be.A．this B．oneC．it D．such2．—I keep on meeting with difficulties in the experiment. I can hardly go on. —Where there are difficulties, there are ways to get over them. ________A．Suit yourself. B．Good for youC．Pull yourself together! D．What’s the deal?3．To be an expert, a beginner needs to go through a series of _____ stages. A．intermediate B．liberalC．overall D．demanding4．But for your instruction, I ______ such great progress in so short a time. Thanks a lot. A．wouldn’t make B．hadn’t madeC．won’t make D．wouldn’t h ave made5．He is very tired，so he needs some time ________ duty for relaxation and rest. A．through B．onC．with D．off6．It is immediately clear ______ the financial crisis will soon be over.A．since B．whatC．when D．whether7．Many developing countries are unwilling to pursue their economic development______ destroying the environment despite there being several financial crises.A．at the risk of B．at the cost of C．at the end of D．at the mercy of8．—Is Peter coming?—No, he____ his mind after a phone call at the last minute.A．changes B．changedC．was changing D．had changed9．He wrote a letter ________ he explained what had happened in the accident. A．that B．whichC．where D．what10．We are committed to creating a world free from the homeless and the hopeless, a world _______ each and every corner is a true paradise.A．that B．whichC．of which D．from where11．The children wrote magical stories together, _____ imaginary worlds of romantic and military adventure.A．to spin B．spinningC．having spun D．to have spun12．The government spokesman has to ________ his words before responding to reporters.A．pass B．weigh C．cover D．express13．When I was small, my mom ________read me stories at night.A．could B．shouldC．might D．would14．When he was running after his brother, the boy lost his ___ and had a bad fall. A．balance B．chanceC．memory D．place15．After he was promoted to the present position, he is not so hardworking as he______.A．was used to B．used to be C．was used to being D．used to16．Why do you turn to me for help ______ you can easily work out the problem independently?A．until B．whenC．after D．unless17．The biggest problem for most plants, which ________just get up and run away when threatened, is that animals like to eat them.A．shall not B．can'tC．needn't D．mustn't18．It's said that the power plant is now large as what it was.A．twice as B．as twiceC．twice much D．much twice19．As to the long-term effects of global warming some believe that the damage has been done, ______________________.A．otherwise we take steps to make up nowB．now that we take steps to make upC．whether we take steps to make up now or notD．unless we take steps to make up now20．— I am gaining weight. I need to see a doctor.— But I think you eat too much. ___________.A．Neglect of health is doctor’s wealth B．Laugh at your ills, and save doctors’ billsC．Diet cures more than the doctor D．An apple a day keeps the doctor away第二部分阅读理解（满分40分）阅读下列短文，从每题所给的A、B、C、D四个选项中，选出最佳选项。

2023年考研英语二真题试卷+参考答案及解析【详细版】全

2023年全国硕士研究生招生考试（英语二）参考答案及解析Section Ⅰ Use of EnglishHere’s a common scenario that any number of entrepreneurs face today: you’re the CEO of a small business and though you're making a nice 1 , you need to find a way to take it to the next level. what you need to do is 2 growth by establishing a growth team. A growth team is made up of members from different departments within your company, and it harnesses the power of collaboration to focus 3 on finding ways to grow.Let's look at a real-world 4 . Prior to forming a growth team, the software company BitTorrent had 50 employees.Working in the 5 departments of engineering, marketing and product development. This brought them good results until 2012, when their growth plateaued. The 6 was that too many customers were using the basic, free version of their product. And 7 improvements to the premium, paid version, few people were making the upgrade.Things changed, 8 , when an innovative project marketing manager came aboard, 9 a growth team and sparked the kind of 10 perspective they needed. By looking at engineering issues from a marketing point of view, it became clear that the 11 of upgrades wasn't due to a quality issue. Most customers were simply unaware of the premium version and what it offered.Armed with this 12 , the marketing and engineering teams joined forces to raise awareness by prominently 13 the premium version to users of the free version. 14 ,upgrades skyrocketed, and revenue increased by 92 percent.But in order for your growth, team to succeed, it needs to a have a strong leader. It needs someone who can 15 the interdisciplinary team and keep them on course for improvement.This leader will 16 the target area, set clear goals and establish a time frame for the 17 of these goals. This growth leader is also 18 for keeping the team focus on moving forward and steer them clear of distractions. 19 attractive, new ideas can be distracting, the team leader must recognize when these ideas don’t 20 the current goal and need to be put on the back burner.1.A. purchase B. profit C. connection D. bet2.A. define B. predict C. prioritize D. appreciate3.A. exclusively B. temporarily C. potentially D. initially4.A. experiment B. proposal C. debate D. example5.A. identical B. marginal C. provisional D. traditional6.A. rumor B. secret C. myth D. problem7.A. despite B. unlike C. through D. besides8.A. moreover B. however C. therefore D. again9.A. inspected B. created C. expanded D. reformed10.A.cultural B. objective C. fresh D. personal11.A. end B. burden C. lack D. decrease12.A. policy B. suggestion C. purpose D. insight13.A. contributing B. allocating C. promoting D. transferring14.A. As a result B. At any rate C. By the way D. In a sense15.A. unite B. finance C. follow D. choose16.A. share B. identify C. divide D. broaden17.A. announcement B. assessment C. adjustment D. accomplishment18.A. famous B. responsible C. available D. respectable19.A. Before B. Once C. While D. Unless20.A. serve B. limit C. summarize D. alter【1】B. profit 原文提到“小公司的CEO也挣到了大钱”。

外文文献——精选推荐

外⽂⽂献外⽂资料New product launch strategy research for the market1. The problem definitionStandard marketing mode, most companies to market a standardized large-scale studies, and on the basis of market segmentation, and step by step into a different choice segment market, so the enterprise new product strategy are also aimed at a market segment, standardization to from concept to product (see new product development strategy) of the new product development process. So they selected for the crowd to market feature has detailed understanding, and in the form of official product before, its product planning, packaging and price plan, target user group of the definition, market promotion plan, and so should is very clear.Conventional marketing model: in some industries, its product development is hard to follow from concept to product model, such as medical products, some of IT products, they are more based on solving problems orientation, consumer is hard to understand. Some products are in another market such as the European market developed, directly transplant into the Chinese market, also do not need to experience from concept to product process. For these new products, they were in the market before, with no early market research support, should make a series of market research, in order to solve the listed strategy formulated faced problems.For such products, appear on the market with the marketing people often before the main problem is that target user group is what kind of person? How big a target market? Target users for price, packing opinion is what kind of? How to reach the promotion of such a target population? How many target user group of people will buy our product? Competitors are? They in the market condition? How to establish and competitor strategy?2. The research for the clients are often saying, "yes, that's to solve these problems, help us to do a market survey,". In fact, to solve the above problems need to more elaborate market research to complete.Market segmentation research-market segment, choose target marketThe market localization to target market, provide the diversity of the products or product characteristics of the products with differentiationBrand image research-aimed to brand market special personalityTest market analysis-selected effective test marketEarly market research-understanding buyers and track their products and overall evaluation of the marketing strategy3. Market segmentation of studiesMarket segmentation purpose: to segment the market, choose target market.Market segmentation research methods: user use and attitude research (U&A).Market segment of steps:Deep visit or forum. Help researchers clear target classification of respondents, competition the characteristics of the products, the consumer attention product attributes, etc., thus the large-scale quantitative research for then prepare design; Researchers U&A of questionnaire, and data collection, sorting data, do basic data analysis;Using the factor analysis and cluster analysis, AnswerTree technology do all kinds of analysis, from different Angle to provide different segments of the pattern.Evaluation of the subdivision MASA conditions: can be used to subdivision variables as many as dozens of, has a population of characteristic, the product use and buy characteristics and other natural features, also can be all kinds of psychological characteristics, such as creativity, etc. In a word, can from any Angle the market any subdivision, but really good market segment case required MASA conditions: market size measurement (measurement), target user can reach (accessibility), market is big enough (substantiality), the son is not insurmountable market access barriers (actionability). Choose target market five mode:Target centralization-manufacturing a product, only to select a target son market, focus on marketing. Suitable for theresource is limited, and less competitive situation.Product specialization-manufacturing a product, more than in the similar son market, focus on marketing. Suitable for company productivity is weak, the less competitive.Professional production more market-a kind of products to meet customers a variety of needs. For example, specifically for hotel produce different electric appliance.Selective specialization-choose several different son of market, and son different market production of different products. Full access to-for each child market production of different products.Choose target market of 3 kinds of marketing strategy:There is no difference marketing strategy-not segments of the market, the company launched a single product to the market, use the same marketing way;The differential marketing strategy-will be big market segments, according to the company's resources and ability choose some son market for different son market with different products, take different marketing plan;Focus on marketing-for several more homogeneous son market use the same marketing strategy.Selector market must consider three factors:A small molecule market a quantity to whether enough big, growth speed and whether enough growth, so as to ensure that the company in this business have improved;The son of market competition status? How many competitors? Strength? Will you draw new competitors? The buyer power strong or weak? Power supplier strong or weak? Etc.?Coincide with the company's strategic objectives? The company resources in support of these children in the market whether enough ability?4. The market localization company once chose a son market as a target market, also was made clear in the future of the customer service type, and competitors. Therefore, the next of the company to consider how to make their products look and the competitor's products are not the same, so that the user more choose their own products, achieve the purpose of from the competition. This is the market localization.The market localization four strategies:The first strategy-to the user to send a "we are the best," so suddenly bring yourself with other distinguish between products out;Old two philosophy-this is because the United States Avis rental company's famous advertising and of the formation of a strategy, the performance is a spirit striving to make progress;Uniqueness strategy-through the market research to find a unique aspects in the market, according to the basic points to dress. Such as haier quick service response, wave server experts, etc.;"Alongside pointed" strategy-just as its name implies, find a common accepted characteristics, their products and other people are the products of the said to be kind of. For example, when you don't know much about Singapore, Singapore and Hong Kong media claims as "Asian tigers", help people at the Singapore from numerous small countries in Asia indistinguishable, become a and unique countries. This is the power of the positioning.The market localization method: can from every Angle to position yourself of the product or brand. The concrete methods see "market positioning research".Market positioning of the three steps:Sure potential unique advantages through the market research symposium of the research, the scale of the quantitative questionnaire survey, clear alternative several unique advantages point;Determine the core advantage by taking into account of the market competition situation, the company's resources and so on, clear the core of the product competitive advantage;Promotion core advantage through a series of integrated marketing solutions, to the general user clear transfer the core of the product competitive advantage.5. Test market after segments of the market, select the target market, and made clear the son of product positioning, below is the product into the market to inspection. For each kind of product, it is always the orderly market. First of all, find a small range of market for some time, right amount promotion support, watching the market reaction. The market was to test the market.Test market is not only to test the product, the marketing plan, more important is to observe the user of the product characteristics and the early in their use of the reaction.6. Early market tracking study after test after test market, products will be in the parts of the market on the first, and with the corresponding marketing do support. When the product into to reach 2-3 months later, early users have accumulated to a certain amount, this is should be a right amount of quantitative research, the purpose is to study the user characteristics, users of the product, and the reaction to the market competition.7. The national promotion when products in the small scope market sustained, the next step is to the broader scope or nationwide market matures. Enter the national market, products face user features will each are not identical, the competition pattern will also extremely complicated, so the range of use and attitude research, and competition condition is very necessary. At the same time, because of the current is the big market, the power of the brand gradually become prominent, so do the brand research has also become more and more important.Case: the Chinese market in research (industry market research)The client's name: a European famous multinational companyBusiness areas: building materialsBusiness content:The next five years the market forecast analysis;Area market forecast analysis;Potential customer demand survey;Market segmentation and confirm the target market;Such products in price analysis;Supply and demand analysis;Main competitor analysis;Major media and publicity channels and related public price;The investment cost survey analysis;The main entry strategy development.The report time: 40 working daysNew product development strategy research for the market1. The definition of new products at least can have two kinds: first, it comes from some existing product line is outspread, such as business has launched ordinary washing powder, and then again the extension of fragrance, develop new products with apple the fragrance of washing powder. This new product is the extension of ordinary washing powder. Second, it is a brand new product.2. The basic steps of new product developmentStage of establishing a think tankConcept screening stageConcept test phaseProduct testing phase3. How to establish the idea is the think tank can form the text product idea, too many products in accordance with some ideas in the formation of the standard for the think tank. Generally speaking, the enterprise research and developmentdepartment (R&D) is responsible for establishing and maintaining the think tank products. For stores, it is very important to the establishment of the think tank product, because it is the enterprise continuously introducing new products the source.The think tank the source of the ideas include: (1) the past the market report, research and development report and other internal document; (2) the organization of the internal staff in different time mind about the result of the discussion echoes; (3) the user/customer complaints/complaint results; (4) research and development personnel according to a research and development regularity of the results is made; (5) market research company, U&A research using user forum user unmet needs analysis, etc.The think tank need to constantly update for every thought also need to define and then defined process, the only way to ensure that the think tank is a really useful products source library.4. How to screen for production technology has the concept of mature, or look might be a market for regulation of new ideas of the description, to give users to evaluate, purpose is to choose a high degree of acceptance, like the thought, after the composition of the marketing added, to promote the concept, product testing phase, test to the final push to the market.Concept is often a dozen screening stage concept to evaluate, only purpose is to select the higher the concept of acceptance, don't do other marketing components evaluation.5. How to test concept in the selection from ten several concept stage out of 2-5 a accept the concept of high degree of concept test, the purpose is to estimate of the concept of each target population quantity, the market, price acceptance, whether for product testing phase for support role.6. How to test the product through the concept of product for test, the businessman or a product product or product model of product testing. The aim of the test is to products of the concept of product and the attributes of the matching degree, product evaluation, etc.7. The new product development market research the problems should pay attention to the new product development is very sensitive market research technology, because it involves is a brand new product, the user basically see touch products, so the difficulty is very big. In the study, the company in a process control, target user definition, sampling design, the study design, data analysis, report writing until results explain every level of the demand is higher, and must have special analysis technology and experience. In addition, for different types of products, the research design are also different. Century blueprint set nearly 10 years of technology and experience accumulation, will try to customers for new product development design the most appropriate research plan and development strategy.中⽂译⽂新产品上市策略市场研究⽅案1. 问题定义标准营销模式下，⼤多数公司对市场都做过规范化的⼤规模研究，并在此基础上对市场进⾏了细分，从⽽有步骤地选择进⼊不同的细分市场，因此这些企业的新产品策略也都是针对某个细分市场，规范化地进⾏从概念到产品（详见新产品开发策略）的新产品开发步骤。

GMAT阅读真题解析(英吉GMAT每日一题)

400-638-5988

2
《GMAT 非官方指南》—阅读部分指导教师：英吉
star's light rays, which would otherwise diverge, to bend together so that, as observed from Earth, the star would temporarily appear to brighten, a process known as microlensing. 这句话的大致意思是 MACHO 重力飘移将会导致曾经分散的光聚集到一起，这样从地球上看起来，这些星就会看起来更亮一些！我们来看看选项
问的是细节，我们根据 microlensing of a star in the Large Magellanic Cloud?来定位，但是这个破词全篇都是，问题起不到作用了，怎么办？我们来看看选项！这些选项好像都和星星的亮度和光被观测到有关系，如果选项存在一个共同点，那就证明你要读到的原文应该包含这些共同点，我们来看看原文哪句话说得是这些亮度和光被观察，应该是 microlensing 这个词出现的第一句：the gravity of a MACHO that had so drifted, astronomers agree, would cause the
《GMAT 非官方指南》—阅读部分指导教师：英吉
GMAT 阅读每日一题详解（GMAT 非官方指南）
指导教师：博智英吉老师
说明: 1、此文档一共 28 篇阅读，把所有题目跟着做下来，您的逻辑正确率应该在 70%以上了，加油哦！ 2、这个系列还有语法、逻辑，OG13 更多请关注人人网“英吉”老师公共主页！ 3、如果你看解析之前先把题目做做会更好的！

2023年考研英语试卷

1、The recent study on climate change emphasizes the urgent need for ________ in order to mitigate its severe impacts.A. sustainable development practicesB. increased consumption of fossil fuelsC. ignoring environmental regulationsD. prioritizing economic growth over ecology (答案：A)2、In the context of global trade, the term "tariff" refers to ________.A. a tax imposed on imported or exported goodsB. a subsidy provided to domestic producersC. an agreement to eliminate trade barriersD. the free flow of goods and services without restrictions (答案：A)3、Which of the following statements best describes the concept of "cultural relativism"?A. All cultures are equally advanced and should be judged by universal standards.B. Cultural practices should be evaluated within their own cultural context.C. Some cultures are inherently better than others.D. Cultural differences are irrelevant in today's globalized world. (答案：B)4、The author's primary purpose in writing the passage is to ________.A. argue against the use of technology in educationB. advocate for the integration of technology into classroomsC. describe the historical evolution of educational toolsD. analyze the negative effects of technology on student learning (答案：B)5、The phrase "the tipping point" in the passage refers to ________.A. the moment when a minor change leads to a significant effectB. the highest point of achievement in a particular fieldC. a gradual and steady process of improvementD. the initial stage of a project's development (答案：A)6、According to the article, which of the following is NOT a challenge faced by remote workers?A. Maintaining a healthy work-life balanceB. Limited opportunities for social interactionC. Increased productivity due to fewer distractionsD. Difficulties in separating work and personal spaces (答案：C)7、The research highlights the importance of ________ in enhancing team collaboration and innovation.A. strict hierarchical structuresB. open communication channelsC. individual competition within teamsD. minimizing face-to-face interactions (答案：B)8、In the field of artificial intelligence, "machine learning" involves ________.A. programming computers to perform specific tasks without adaptationB. enabling computers to learn and improve from data without being explicitly programmedC. using pre-determined algorithms for all problem-solving scenariosD. relying solely on human input for decision-making processes (答案：B)9、The main argument presented in the passage is that ________.A. renewable energy sources are not yet reliable enoughB. investing in renewable energy is crucial for sustainable developmentC. fossil fuels remain the most efficient energy sourceD. technological advancements have made traditional energy sources obsolete (答案：B)10、Which of the following best explains the concept of "digital footprint"?A. The physical space occupied by digital devicesB. The trail of data left behind by online activitiesC. The speed of internet connectionD. The amount of storage space on a digital device (答案：B)。

SAH治疗指南

REVIEWCritical Care Management of Patients Following Aneurysmal Subarachnoid Hemorrhage:Recommendations from the Neurocritical Care Society’s Multidisciplinary Consensus ConferenceMichael N.Diringer•Thomas P.Bleck•J.Claude Hemphill III•David Menon•Lori Shutter•Paul Vespa•Nicolas Bruder•E.Sander Connolly Jr.•Giuseppe Citerio•Daryl Gress•Daniel Ha¨nggi•Brian L.Hoh•Giuseppe Lanzino•Peter Le Roux•Alejandro Rabinstein•Erich Schmutzhard•Nino Stocchetti•Jose I.Suarez•Miriam Treggiari•Ming-Yuan Tseng•Mervyn D.I.Vergouwen•Stefan Wolf•Gregory ZipfelPublished online:20July2011ÓSpringer Science+Business Media,LLC2011Abstract Subarachnoid hemorrhage(SAH)is an acute cerebrovascular event which can have devastating effects on the central nervous system as well as a profound impact on several other organs.SAH patients are routinely admitted to an intensive care unit and are cared for by a multidisciplinary team.A lack of high quality data has led to numerous approaches to management and limited guidance on choos-ing among them.Existing guidelines emphasize risk factors, prevention,natural history,and prevention of rebleeding,but provide limited discussion of the complex critical care issues involved in the care of SAH patients.The Neurocritical Care Society organized an international,multidisciplinary con-sensus conference on the critical care management of SAH to address this need.Experts from neurocritical care,neuro-surgery,neurology,interventional neuroradiology,and neuroanesthesiology from Europe and North America were recruited based on their publications and expertise.A jury of four experienced neurointensivists was selected for their experience in clinical investigations and development of practice guidelines.Recommendations were developed based on literature review using the GRADE system,dis-cussion integrating the literature with the collective experience of the participants and critical review by an impartial jury.Recommendations were developed using the GRADE system.Emphasis was placed on the principle thatDisclaimer This statement is provided as an educational service of the Neurocritical Care Society.It is based on an assessment of current literature and the consensus of the opinions of the attendees and jury of the conference.It is not intended to include all possible proper methods of care for SAH patients.Neither is it intended to exclude any reasonable alternative methodologies.The Neurocritical Care Society recognizes that speciﬁc patient care decisions are the prerogative of the patient and the physician caring for the patient, based on all of the circumstances involved.No formal practice recommendations should be inferred.The Organizer,Members of the Jury,and Conference participants in the International Multi-disciplinary Consensus Conference on the Critical Care Management of Subarachnoid Hemorrhage are listed in Appendix.M.N.Diringer(&)Neurology/Neurosurgery Intensive Care Unit,Washington University,St.Louis,MO,USAe-mail:diringerm@T.P.BleckRush Medical College,Chicago,IL,USAJ.Claude Hemphill IIIUniversity of California at San Francisco,San Francisco, CA,USAD.MenonUniversity of Cambridge,Cambridge,UK L.ShutterUniversity of Cincinnati,Cincinnati,OH,USAP.VespaUniversity of California at Los Angeles,Los Angeles,CA,USA N.BruderUniversite´de la Me´diterrane´e,Marseille,FranceE.S.Connolly Jr.Columbia University,New York,NY,USANeurocrit Care(2011)15:211–240 DOI10.1007/s12028-011-9605-9recommendations should be based not only on the quality of the data but also tradeoffs and translation into practice. Strong consideration was given to providing guidance and recommendations for all issues faced in the daily man-agement of SAH patients,even in the absence of high quality data.Keywords Subarachnoid hemorrhageÁCritical careÁAneurysmÁVasospasmÁAnticonvulsantsÁHyponatremiaÁEndovascularÁFeverIntroductionSubarachnoid hemorrhage(SAH)is an acute cerebrovas-cular event which can have devastating effects on the central nervous system as well as a profound impact on several other organs.The course of the disease can be prolonged,with considerable secondary brain injury due to delayed cerebral ischemia(DCI).Systemic manifestations affecting cardiovascular,pulmonary,and renal function are common,and complicate the management of DCI.Due to the profound effects of the hemorrhage itself and the risk of early rebleeding and hydrocephalus,SAH patients are routinely admitted to an intensive care unit and are cared for by a multidisciplinary team including neurosur-geons,(neuro)intensivists,(neuro)anesthesiologists and interventional neuroradiologists.The ICU course of SAH patients ranges from a few days to a few weeks and is fre-quently accompanied by multiple medical complications.Despite considerable effort,only one intervention—the use of nimodipine—for this complex multifaceted disorder has been proven to improve outcome in prospective ran-domized controlled trials[1].This lack of high quality deﬁnitive data has led to numerous approaches to manage-ment and provides limited guidance on choosing among them.There have been relatively few guidelines developed for SAH management.They emphasize risk factors,preven-tion,natural history,and prevention of rebleeding,but provide limited discussion of the critical care issues involved in the care of SAH patients.In order to provide a comprehensive review of those issues the Neurocritical Care Society organized a multidisciplinary consensus conference on the critical care management of SAH. Topics were chosen based on their relevance to the critical care management of patients with aneurysmal SAH.Pro-cedures used to repair aneurysms were not addressed.Statement of PurposeThe purpose of the consensus conference was to develop recommendations for the critical care management of patients following acute SAH.The complex multi-organ pathophysiology of SAH presents a multitude of clinical challenges which demand attention.For each situation decisions must be made about if,when,and how to inter-vene.Ideally,each decision would be made based on high quality data;yet the reality is that such data rarely exist. Still,decisions about management must be made.Recom-mendations were developed based on the literature,a robust discussion regarding the interpretation of the liter-ature,the collective experience of the members of the group and review by an impartial jury.G.CiterioSan Gerardo Hospital,Monza,ItalyD.GressUniversity of Virginia,Charlottesville,VA,USAD.Ha¨nggiHeinrich-Heine University,Du¨sseldorf,GermanyB.L.HohUniversity of Florida,Gainesville,FL,USAnzinoÁA.RabinsteinMayo Clinic,Rochester,MN,USAP.Le RouxUniversity of Pennsylvania,Philadelphia,PA,USAE.SchmutzhardUniversity Hospital Innsbruck,Innsbruck,AustriaN.StocchettiFondazione IRCCS Ca`Granda–Ospedale Policlinico,Milan University,Milan,Italy J.I.SuarezBaylor College of Medicine,Houston,TX,USA M.TreggiariUniversity of Washington,St.Louis,MO,USA M.-Y.TsengNottingham University Hospitals,Nottingham,UK M.D.I.VergouwenUniversity of Utrecht,Utrecht,The Netherlands S.WolfFreie Universita¨t Berlin,Berlin,GermanyG.ZipfelWashington University,St.Louis,MO,USAProcessTopics were identiﬁed based on clinical decision points in the critical care management of SAH patients.Experts drawn from Europe and North America from theﬁelds of neurosurgery, neurocritical care,neurology,interventional neuroradiology, and neuroanesthesiology were recruited based on their expertise related to each topic.A jury of four experienced neurointensivists was selected for their expertise in clinical investigation and development of practice guidelines.Each participant performed a critical literature review.The ﬁndings were summarized in tables and a summary was pre-pared which reviewed the data and provided speciﬁc management recommendations.These were submitted in draft form before the conference and distributed to all participants.The quality of the data was assessed and recommenda-tions developed using the GRADE system[2].The quality of the evidence was graded as:•High=Further research is very unlikely to change our conﬁdence in the estimate of effect.•Moderate=Further research is likely to have an important impact on our conﬁdence in the estimate of effect and may change the estimate.•Low=Further research is very likely to have an important impact on our conﬁdence in the estimate of effect and is likely to change the estimate.•Very low=Any estimate of effect is very uncertain.The GRADE system classiﬁes recommendations as strong or weak,according to the balance among beneﬁts,risks, burden,and cost,and according to the quality of evidence. Keeping those components explicitly separate constitutes a crucial and deﬁning feature of this grading system.An advantage of the GRADE system is that it allows for strong recommendations in the setting of lower quality evidence and thus it is well suited to this situation.Recommendations were either strong or weak and based on the following:•The trade-offs,taking into account the estimated size of the effect for the main outcomes,the conﬁdence limits around those estimates,and the relative value placed on each outcome•The quality of the evidence•Translation of the evidence into practice in a speciﬁc setting,taking into consideration important factors that could be expected to modify the size of the expected effectsThe conference took place on October22–23,2010.Each participant presented a summary of the data and recom-mendations to the jury and other participants.Presentations were followed by discussion focused on reﬁning the pro-posed management recommendations.Approximately1/3of the conference time was utilized for discussion.The jury met for2days after the conference and again at a subsequent2-day meeting and held several conference calls.They reviewed selected key studies,the recommen-dations made by the primary reviewers and the discussion that took place at the conference.Strong consideration was given to providing guidance and recommendations for all issues faced in the daily management of SAH patients, even in the absence of high quality data.Medical Measures to Prevent RebleedingQuestions Addressed•Do any medical interventions reduce the incidence of rebleeding in patients awaiting deﬁnitive management of their ruptured aneurysm?•Do alterations in investigative approaches reduce the incidence of rebleeding in patients awaiting deﬁnitive management of their ruptured aneurysm?•Does stringent blood pressure reduction reduce the incidence of rebleeding in patients awaiting deﬁnitive management of their ruptured aneurysm?Summary of the LiteratureRebleeding following aneurysmal SAH is common.Its incidence is highest immediately following the initial hemorrhage(5–10%over theﬁrst72h)[3],is higher in patients with poor-grade SAH,larger aneurysms,sentinel bleeds,and those who undergo catheter angiography within 3h of the ictus.Immediate repair of the ruptured aneurysm by either coil embolization or microsurgical clip ligation markedly reduces the risk of rebleeding,with microsurgical exclusion being slightly more efﬁcacious[4].Nevertheless, some patients are either too sick for immediate repair or require transport to a center where repair can be performed. Repair procedures have signiﬁcant risks and require experienced teams to minimize the serious procedural side effects of repair.This fact can lead to further delay in repair,and increase the risk of rebleeding.We considered three interventions that might modulate this risk:antiﬁ-brinolytic therapy,catheter vs.CT angiography,and blood pressure control.Nine studies of antiﬁbrinolytic therapy prior to2002 involving1399patients showed no beneﬁt on poor out-come or death despite a marked signiﬁcant reduction in rebleeding,probably due to a signiﬁcantly higher incidence of cerebral ischemia in the treated patients[5].It is note-worthy that all of these studies continued therapy for weeks (into the period when the risk of vasospasm was high),and at least one of these studies initiated therapy as late as 4days post-ictus,when the risk of rebleeding wassubstantially reduced.More recently,one randomized trial (involving505patients)[6]and two case control studies (involving428patients)[7,8]examined whether an early short course of antiﬁbrinolytic therapy can reduce the risk of rebleeding while early,safe repair is being arranged.A third study also found a reduction in rebleeding but noted an increased incidence of DVTs[8].These studies suggest a uniform reduction in rebleeding rates from*11to *2.5%,but the studies were not adequately powered to determine the effect of antiﬁbrinolytic therapy on overall patient outcome.Several case reports or case series report aneurysmal rebleeding when catheter angiography is undertaken very early(less than3–6h)following aneurysmal SAH.Speciﬁc rebleeding rates are difﬁcult to compute,as many of these are individual case reports,and the denominator in case series (i.e.,the total number of patients undergoing early angiog-raphy)is poorly deﬁned.However,rates as high as20–38.5% have been quoted[9–13].It seems unwarranted to conclude this is a speciﬁc risk attributable to DSA for several reasons. First,where a clear denominator is provided to assess the incidence of rebleeding,ﬁgures are much lower(*5%)[11]. Second,it is unclear whether these instances of rebleeding with DSA actually reﬂect a risk of the procedure,or are simply a manifestation of the high rebleeding rates known to occur after initial aneurysm rupture.Third,there is no sat-isfactory direct comparison of rebleeding with and without DSA or to CTA within theﬁrst6h post-SAH;the one case series that does report a twofold risk with DSA included only a small number of patients[12].Intriguingly,reports of contrast extravasation during ultra-early CTA[14,15]have heretofore been interpreted as the investigation being able to image the process of early rebleeding[13],rather than being a cause of such rebleeding.There are no systematic data that address blood pressure levels in patients with unsecured aneurysms in relation to the risk of rebleeding.Some early studies of hypervolemic–hypertensive therapy reported aneurysmal rebleeding or hemorrhagic transformation of hypodense lesions with ele-vation of systolic blood pressure to160–200mmHg. However,more recent series do not report rebleeding at systolic blood pressure in this range,and the clear consensus of the participants at the workshop was that modest blood pressure elevation(mean arterial pressure<110mmHg; systolic blood pressure<160mmHg)was not associated with rebleeding.DiscussionFurther deﬁnitive evidence of beneﬁt from antiﬁbrinolytic agents will require a trial with very early identiﬁcation of patients and early administration of tranexamic acid or aminocaproic acid,a large sample size and sufﬁcient power to detect an effect on functional outcome.Patients in good neurological condition with evidence of sentinel hemor-rhage,loss of consciousness at ictus and who harbor larger aneurysms on initial CTA are likely to be the best popu-lation for study.There appears to be sufﬁcient equipoise in the USA for such a trial to be conducted,and we would underline the fact that our recommendations in this area would need to be revised when data from such a study were available.Given the less-than-deﬁnitive evidence on which we have based our recommendation for early antiﬁbrino-lytic therapy,we have explicitly stated several cautionary recommendations that would mitigate against side effects of the intervention.We did not feel that the data available provided a clear basis for attributing an increased rebleeding risk to ultra-early DSA.Formal assessment of catheter vs.CT angiog-raphy in the hyperacute phase would require further collection of epidemiological data in theﬁrst instance,and a large trial comparing the two would be needed to provide deﬁnitive recommendations.Given that CTA is now well established,it seems unlikely that a large RCT comparing DSA and CTA will ever materialize.However,pending the continued collection of epidemiological data,it was felt that choosing CTA over DSA for ultra-early angiography was a reasonable option where both options are available, the technical quality of CTA was good,and an endovas-cular intervention was not planned at the time of angiography.However,in the setting of SAH,the over-whelming aim is to detect and secure a culprit aneurysm, and there is no case for delaying investigation(either CTA or DSA)to reduce any theoretical risk of rebleeding.There appears to be little concern that rebleeding with modest blood pressure elevation is a signiﬁcant clinical issue,and there was no enthusiasm for a study addressing this issue.Recommendations•Early aneurysm repair should be undertaken,when possible and reasonable,to prevent rebleeding(High Quality Evidence;Strong Recommendation).•An early,short course of antiﬁbrinolytic therapy prior to early aneurysm repair(begun at diagnosis;continued up to the point at which the aneurysm is secured or at72h post-ictus,whichever is shorter)should be considered (Low Quality Evidence;Weak Recommendation).•Delayed(>48h after the ictus)or prolonged(>3days) antiﬁbrinolytic therapy exposes patients to side effects of therapy when the risk of rebleeding is sharply reduced and should be avoided(High Quality Evidence;Strong Recommendation).•Antiﬁbrinolytic therapy is relatively contraindicated in patients with risk factors for thromboemboliccomplications(Moderate Quality Evidence;Strong Recommendation).•Patients treated with antiﬁbrinolytic therapy should have close screening for deep venous thrombosis(Moderate Quality Evidence;Strong Recommendation).•Antiﬁbrinolytic therapy should be discontinued2h before planned endovascular ablation of an aneurysm (Very Low Quality Evidence;Weak Recommendation).•When CTA and DSA are both available and CTA is of high technical quality,CTA should be performed preferentially if endovascular intervention is not planned at the time of angiography(Very Low Quality Evidence;Weak Recommendation).•Treat extreme hypertension in patients with an unse-cured,recently ruptured aneurysm.Modest elevations in blood pressure(mean blood pressure<110mmHg) do not require therapy.Pre-morbid baseline blood pressures should be used to reﬁne targets;hypotension should be avoided(Low Quality Evidence;Strong Recommendation).Seizures and Prophylactic Anticonvulsant Use Questions Addressed•What is the incidence and impact of convulsive and non-convulsive seizures after SAH?•Does anticonvulsant prophylaxis inﬂuence this incidence?Summary of the LiteratureAbnormal movements that may appear seizure-like are common at the onset of SAH,but it is usually unclear whether this is a true seizure or represents posturing at the time of aneurysm rupture[16,17].Clinical seizures are uncommon after the initial aneurysm rupture(occurring in 1–7%of patients)and when they occur in patients with an unsecured aneurysm,they are often the manifestation of aneurysmal re-rupture[4,18].Risk factors for the development of seizures in SAH are surgical aneurysm repair in patients>65years of age,thick subarachnoid clot,and possibly intraparenchymal hematoma or infarc-tion[16,17].Prophylactic treatment with anticonvulsants in SAH patients without seizures has previously been commonplace,although no randomized trials speciﬁcally addressing this issue have been performed.Recent studies have suggested that anticonvulsant use is associated with worsened long-term outcome after SAH,although most of the patients in these studies were treated with phenytoin [19,20].Thus,prophylactic anticonvulsant therapy with phenytoin may worsen outcome,although the impact of other anticonvulsant medications is less clear.Also,in patients with no history of seizure,a short course(72h) of anticonvulsant prophylaxis seems as effective as a more prolonged course in preventing seizures[21].In comatose(poor-grade)SAH patients,non-convulsive sei-zures may be detected on continuous EEG(cEEG)in 10–20%of cases[22–24].While patients with non-con-vulsive seizures have a worsened outcome,the impact of successful treatment of these non-convulsive seizures has not been studied.Also,the inﬂuence of anticonvulsant prophylaxis on the occurrence of non-convulsive seizures has not been studied.DiscussionThere was general agreement among the participants that current evidence raises concern that anticonvulsants,spe-ciﬁcally phenytoin,may worsen outcome after SAH. Therefore,there was consensus that routine prophylactic phenytoin use should not be undertaken after SAH.There was,however,controversy regarding use of other anti-convulsant medications and the unknown potential for anticonvulsants to lessen the impact of non-convulsive seizures.Also,the possibility that certain subgroups,such as elderly patients undergoing craniotomy,may have a higher seizure risk led the group to consider that a short course(3–7days)of anticonvulsant prophylaxis might still be considered in certain situations,especially if an agent other than phenytoin was used.There was also agreement that patients who suffer a clear clinical seizure after the period of aneurysmal rupture should be treated with anti-convulsants,but that if seizures do not recur,these anticonvulsants should be discontinued after3–6months. There was disagreement about whether an EEG should be performed at that time and,if so,whether seizure-free patients with an epileptic focus should be continued on anticonvulsants.There was consensus that cEEG is prob-ably underutilized in poor-grade SAH patients and that non-convulsive seizures are common.However,there was concern regarding whether these non-convulsive seizures represented markers of disease severity or a target for treatment.Thus,there was modest disagreement on the aggressiveness with which to pursue treatment of non-convulsive seizures.There was a general agreement that one or perhaps two anticonvulsants should be used to attempt to treat non-convulsive seizures identiﬁed on cEEG,but disagreement about whether to pursue more aggressive means such as benzodiazepine or barbiturate infusions if initial measures were unsuccessful.Recommendations•Routine use of anticonvulsant prophylaxis with phe-nytoin is not recommended after SAH(low quality evidence—strong recommendation).•Routine use of other anticonvulsants for prophylaxis may be considered(very low quality evidence—weak recommendation).•If anticonvulsant prophylaxis is used,a short course (3–7days)is recommended(low quality evidence—weak recommendation).•In patients who suffer a seizure after presentation, anticonvulsants should be continued for a duration deﬁned by local practice(low quality evidence—weak recommendation).•Continuous EEG monitoring should be considered in patients with poor-grade SAH who fail to improve or who have neurological deterioration of undetermined etiology(low quality evidence—strong recommendation).Cardiopulmonary ComplicationsQuestions Addressed•What monitoring should be utilized in SAH patients with cardiovascular instability?•Are there recommendations regarding managing car-diopulmonary complications in patients with SAH? Summary of the LiteratureMyocardial injury occurs following SAH and is thought to be related to sympathetic stimulation and catecholamine discharge.Elevations of troponin I levels occur in approximately35%[25,26],arrhythmias in35%[27],and wall motion abnormalities on echocardiography in about 25%of patients with SAH[28].Echocardiographic abnormalities are more frequent in patients with elevated troponin levels.The terms‘‘Neurogenic Stress Cardiomy-opathy’’and‘‘Stunned Myocardium’’have been applied to the clinical syndrome of chest pain;dyspnea;hypoxemia, and cardiogenic shock with pulmonary edema and elevated cardiac markers that occurs within hours of SAH.This syndrome has a wide spectrum of severity,and it may contribute to sudden death in12%of patients.The mani-festations are usually transient lasting1–3days after which myocardial function returns to normal.Management should focus on supportive care that balances cardiac needs with the neurological goals[29].In general,cardiac abnormalities are more common in patients who later develop DCI and have worse outcomes [30].Although several mechanisms have been proposed to explain the cardiac abnormalities,the evidence seems strongest for a catecholamine induced process[29].Mon-itoring of cardiac function may be beneﬁcial in the setting of hemodynamic instability or myocardial dysfunction,but there is no evidence that it improves outcome.Manage-ment of cardiac complications is heterogeneous,and interventions should reﬂect current best medical practices.Symptomatic pulmonary complications occur in over 20%of patients after SAH[31,32],although evidence of impaired oxygenation occurs in up to80%[33].These complications are associated with worse clinical grade SAH and higher mortality[34–36].Patients may develop pulmonary edema(cardiac or neurogenic),acute lung injury or acute respiratory distress syndrome.The mecha-nism of pulmonary injury may also be related to sympathetic hyperactivity or cardiac failure.Management of pulmonary issues follows general principles of pul-monary management,however,with careful attention to avoid hypovolemia.DiscussionThe participants all agreed that cardiopulmonary compli-cations are common after SAH,and have a signiﬁcant impact on clinical care.They frequently complicate management by increasing procedural risk and exacerbate brain oxygen delivery by lowering perfusion pressure and arterial oxygenation saturation.It was generally agreed that a baseline assessment of cardiac function with echocardiography may be beneﬁcial,especially if there are any signs of myocardial dysfunction.Although there is limited evidence,the panel strongly felt that cardiac output should be monitored(invasively or non-invasively) in those patients with myocardial dysfunction or hemo-dynamic instability.The participants voiced the opinion that management of these complications may vary based on the patient’s clin-ical status and in the setting of vasospasm.There was strong agreement that cardiopulmonary issues are wors-ened in the event of hypervolemia,thus the goal of therapy should be euvolemia.The panel also strongly recom-mended that management of cardiopulmonary issues should reﬂect current best medical practice,while balanc-ing the needs of the underlying neurological condition. RecommendationsMonitoring•Baseline cardiac assessment with serial enzymes, electrocardiography,and echocardiography is recom-mended,especially in patients with evidence ofmyocardial dysfunction(Low quality evidence;Strong Recommendation).•Monitoring of cardiac output may be useful in patients with evidence of hemodynamic instability or myocar-dial dysfunction.(Low quality evidence;Strong Recommendation).Treatment•In case of pulmonary edema or evidence of lung injury,the goal of therapy should include avoiding excessiveﬂuid intake and judicious use of diuretics targeting euvolemia (Moderate quality evidence;Strong recommendation).•Standard management of heart failure is indicated with the exception that CPP/MAP should be maintained as appropriate for the neurological condition.(Moderate quality evidence;Strong recommendation). Monitoring Intravascular Volume StatusQuestions Addressed•What is the role of monitoringﬂuid balance and central venous pressure(CVP)?•What measurements should be used to assess blood volume?•Is there a role for non-invasive hemodynamic monitoring?•Is there a role for pulmonary artery catheters(PACs)? Summary of the LiteratureSAH patients frequently develop hypovolemia and hypo-natremia.Retrospective studies have identiﬁed a relationship between hypovolemia and an increased inci-dence of cerebral infarcts and worse outcome[37,38]; especially whenﬂuid administration is restricted.For this reason,assessment of intravascular volume in patients after SAH is essential to daily management.Therefore,guidance is needed regarding the mechanism and impact of altera-tions inﬂuid balance,and the methods for monitoring volume status.Available literature describes multiple fac-tors that may contribute to changes in volume status [39,40].Fluid balance may not accurately reﬂect intravascular volume[41–44],therefore invasive and non-invasive methods have been used as possible alternatives to monitor volume status.Although all methods provide information to guide patient management,none have demonstrated superiority over vigilantﬂuid management[45–47].In fact,CVP appears to be an unreliable indicator of intravascular volume[45,46],and,although PACs may have a role in hemodynamically unstable patients,the complications associated with their routine use appear to outweigh any potential beneﬁt[48–50].DiscussionThe participants generally agreed that volume status of patients should be monitored after SAH even though it may not accurately reﬂect intravascular volume,nor is there evidence that close monitoring has a beneﬁcial impact on outcome.The panel discussed multiples methods to monitor vol-ume status,and weighed the evidence regarding potential risk versus beneﬁt of each.It was generally felt that both physicalﬁndings and clinical data must be integrated into assessment of volume status.Although there was not a preferred method of monitoring volume status,a hierar-chical approach is often used.The primary assessment should be close monitoring ofﬂuid input and output.Other invasive and non-invasive modalities may be used to pro-vide supplemental information based on the clinical scenario,but no one tool should be used in isolation.The panel did voice strong agreement against the routine use of invasive PACs or dependence on CVP targets. Recommendations•Monitoring of volume status may be beneﬁcial(Mod-erate quality evidence;weak recommendation).•Vigilantﬂuid balance management should be the foundation for monitoring intravascular volume status.While both non-invasive and invasive monitoring technologies are available,no speciﬁc modality can be recommended over clinical assessment(Moderate quality evidence;weak recommendation).•Central venous lines should not be placed solely to obtain CVP measures andﬂuid management based solely on CVP measurements is not recommended (Moderate quality evidence;strong recommendation).•Use of PACs incurs risk and lacks evidence of beneﬁt.Routine use of PACs is not recommended(Moderate quality evidence;strong recommendation). Managing Intravascular Volume StatusQuestions Addressed•Should prophylactic hypervolemia be employed in the management of SAH patients?。

成人商务英语口语

成人商务英语口语商务英语口语区别于日常口语,有很强的专业性。

下面小编收集了一些成人商务英语口语分享给大家，希望对大家有用。

成人商务英语口语如下：我们员工的士气有下降的迹象。

There’re some signs that the morale of our staff is falling.是的。

这确实是个很严重的问题。

Yes. It’s really a matter of much concern .我认为最有效的办法就是加薪。

I think the most effective way is to raise salaries.这恐怕太简单化了。

我们得弄清问题的真正原因并找出解决方案，而不是寻求快速或者临时的办法。

I’m afraid it’s too simplistic. We need to identify the real cause of the problem and work to find a solution to it instead of looking for quick fixes or temporary solutions.没错。

Definitely.我们应该全面考虑。

We should take it all round.We should take it from all sides.我建议培养我们自己的企业文化来提高士气。

I propose we cultivate our own corporate culture to heighten/boost the morale.还有其他问题吗？Do you have any other question?Is there any other question?没有。

No.总结To sum up,In conclusion,今天我们探讨了五个问题。

We have discussed/covered five issues today.很好。

GMAT考试阅读试题（一）（5）

Passage 5 How many really suffer as a result of labor mar-ket problems？ This is one of the most critical yetcontentious social policy questions. In many ways，our social statistics exaggerate the degree of hard-（5） ship. Unemployment does not have the same direconsequences today as it did in the 1930‘s whenmost of the unemployed were primary breadwin-ners，when income and earnings were usually muchcloser to the margin of subsistence， and when there（10） were no countervailing social programs for thosefailing in the labor market. Increasing affluence， therise of families with more than one wage earner， thegrowing predominance of secondary earners amongthe unemployed， and improved social welfare pro-（15） tection have unquestionably mitigated the conse-quences of joblessness. Earnings and income dataalso overstate the dimensions of hardship. Amongthe millions with hourly earnings at or below theminimum wage level， the overwhelming majority（20） are from multiple-earner， relatively affluent families. Most of those counted by the povertystatistics are elderly or handicapped or have familyresponsibilities which keep them out of the laborforce， so the poverty statistics are by no means an（25） accurate indicator of labor market pathologies. Yet there are also many ways our social statisticsunderestimate the degree of labor-market-relatedhardship. The unemployment counts exclude themillions of fully employed workers whose wages are（30） so low that their families remain in poverty. Lowwages and repeated or prolonged unemploymentfrequently interact to undermine the capacity forself-support. Since the number experiencing jobless-ness at some time during the year is several times（35）the number unemployed in any month， those whosuffer as a result of forced idleness can equal orexceed average annual unemployment， even thoughonly a minority of the jobless in any month reallysuffer. For every person counted in the monthly（40） unemployment tallies， there is another workingpart-time because of the inability to find full-timework， or else outside the labor force but wanting ajob. Finally， income transfers in our country havealways focused on the elderly，disabled， and depen-（45）dent， neglecting the needs of the working poor， sothat the dramatic expansion of cash and in-kindtransfers does not necessarily mean that those fail-ing in the labor market are adequately protected.As a result of such contradictory evidence， it is（50） uncertain whether those suffering seriously as aresult of thousands or the tens of millions， and，hence， whether high levels of joblessness can be tol-erated or must be countered by job creationand（55） economic stimulus. There is only one area of agree-ment in this debate——that the existingpoverty，employment， and earnings statistics are inadequatefor one their primary applications， measuring theconsequences of labor market problems.1. Which of the following is the principal topic of the passage？　（A） What causes labor market pathologies that result　in suffering　（B） Why income measures are imprecise in measuring　degrees of poverty　（C） Which of the currently used statistical procedures　are the best for estimating the incidence of　hardship that is due to unemployment　（D） Where the areas of agreement are among　poverty， employment， and earnings figures　（E） How social statistics give an unclear picture of the　degree of hardship caused by low wages and　insufficient employment opportunities2. The author uses “labor market problems” in lines 1-2 to refer to which of the following？　（A） The overall causes of poverty　（B） Deficiencies in the training of the work force　（C） Trade relationships among producers of goods　（D） Shortages of jobs providing adequate income　（E） Strikes and inadequate supplies of labor3. The author contrasts the 1930‘s with the present in　order to show that　（A） more people were unemployed in the 1930‘s　（B） unemployment now has less severe effects　（C） social programs are more needed now　（D） there now is a greater proportion of elderly and　handicapped people among those in poverty　（E） poverty has increased since the 1930‘s4.Which of the following proposals best responds to the　issues raised by the author？　（A） Innovative programs using multiple approachesshould be set up to reduce the level ofunemployment.　（B） A compromise should be found between the positions of those who view joblessness as an evil greater than economic control and those who　hold the opposite view.　（C） New statistical indices should be developed to measure the degree to which unemployment and inadequately paid employment cause suffering.　（D） Consideration should be given to the ways in whichstatistics can act as partial causes of the phenomenathat they purport to measure.　（E） The labor force should be restructured so that itcorresponds to the range of job vacancies.5.The author‘s purpose in citing those who are repeatedly unemployed during a twelve-month period is most　probably toshow that　（A） there are several factors that cause the payment of low wages to some members of the labor force　（B） unemployment statistics can underestimate the hardship resulting from joblessness　（C） recurrent inadequacies in the labor market can exist and can cause hardships for individual workers　（D） a majority of those who are jobless at any one time to not suffer severe hardship　（E） there are fewer individuals who are without jobs at some time during a year than would be expected on the basis of monthly unemployment figures6. The author states that the mitigating effect of social programs involving income transfers on the income level of low-income people is often not felt by　（A） the employed poor　（B） dependent children in single-earner families　（C） workers who become disabled　（D） retired workers　（E） full-time workers who become unemployed　7. According to the passage， one factor that causes　unemployment and earnings figures to overpredict　the amount of economic hardship is the　（A） recurrence of periods of unemployment for a　group of low-wage workers　（B） possibility that earnings may be received from more than one job per worker　（C） fact that unemployment counts do not include tose who work for low wages and remain poor　（D） establishment of a system of record-keeping that makes it possible to compile poverty statistics　（E） prevalence， among low-wage workers and the unemployed， of members of families in which　others are employed8. The conclusion stated in lines 33-39 about the　number of people who suffer as a result of forced　idleness depends primarily on the point that　（A） in times of high unemployment， there are some　people who do not remain unemployed for long　（B） the capacity for self-support depends on　receiving moderate-to-high wages　　（C） those in forced idleness include， besides the　unemployed， both underemployed part-time　workers and those not actively seeking work　（D） at different times during the year， different people　are unemployed　（E） many of those who are affected by unemploy-ment are dependents of unemployed workers9. Which of the following， if true， is the best criticism of　the author‘s argument concerning why poverty　statistics cannot properly be used to show the effects of problems in the labor market？　（A） A short-term increase in the number of those in　poverty can indicate a shortage of jobs because the basic number of those unable to accept employment remains approximately constant.　（B） For those who are in poverty as a result of　joblessness， there are social programs available that provide a minimum standard of living.　（C） Poverty statistics do not consistently agree with　earnings statistics， when each is taken as a measure of hardship resulting from unemployment.　（D） The elderly and handicapped categories include　many who previously were employed in the labor market.　（E） Since the labor market is global in nature， poor　workers in one country are competing with poor workers in another with respect to the level of wages and the existence of jobs.。

Translation

Translation1.我们的计算机系统出了毛病，但我觉得问题比较小。

We have a problem with the computer system, but I think it's fairly minor.2.父亲去世时我还小，不能独立生活。

就在那时，家乡的父老接过了养育我的责任。

My father died when I was too young to live on my own .The people of my hometown took over my upbringing at that point.3.这些玩具必得在达到严格的安全要求后才可出给儿童。

The toys have to meet strict safety requirements before they can be sold to children.4.作为新闻和舆论的载体，广播和电视补充了而不是替代了报纸。

Radio and television have supplemented rather than replaced the newspaper as carriers of news and opinion.5.至于这本杂志，它刊载世界各地许多报纸杂志上文章的摘要。

When it comes to this magazine, it is a digest of articles from many newspapers and magazines around the world.1.无论是在城市还是在农村，因特网正在改变人们的生活方式。

The Internet is changing the way people live, no matter whether they are in urban or rural areas.2.和大公司相比，中小公司更容易受到全球经济危机的威胁。

高二下学期英语阶段性阅读理解魔法带练(08)

【passage 15】①While often seen as a negative（消极的）emotion，anger can also be a powerful motivator （促进因素）for people to achieve challenging goals in their lives，according to research published by the American Psychological Association.②“People often believe that a state of happiness is perfect, " said lead author Heather Lench, PhD, a professor in the department of psychological and brain sciences at Texas A & M University, “but previous research suggests that a mix of emotions, including negative emo tions like anger, results in good outcomes."③The functionalist theory of emotion suggests that all emotions, good or bad, are reactions to events within a person's environment and help that person to make proper actions, according to Lench. For example, sadness may suggest that a person needs to seek help or emotional support,while anger may indicate a person needs to take action to overcome an obstacle（障碍）.④To better understand the role of anger in achieving goals, researchers conducted a series of experiments involving more than 1,000 participants and analyzed survey data from more than 1,400 respondents. In each experiment, participants either had an emotional response (such as anger, amusement,desire or sadness）or a neutral（中性的）emotional state，and then were presented with a challenging goal. Across all the experiments, anger improved people's ability to reach their goals compared with a neutral condition in a variety of challenging situations.⑤“Our research adds to the growing evidence that a mix of positive and negative emotions promotes well-being, and that using negative emotions as tools can be particularly effective in some situations,” Lench said.（素材来源：云南省大理州2023-2024学年上学期教学质量监测高二英语试题）53. What is commonly believed concerning people's emotions?A. It is believed that a state of joy is great.B. A feeling of sadness leads to poor effect.C. Anger is actually a positive emotion.D. Pride acts as an obstacle to success.54. Why did researchers do a series of experiments?A. They hoped to overturn the previous findings.B.They hoped to prove that a state of happiness is ideal.C.They hoped to find the relationship between positive and negative emotions.D.They hoped to have a better understanding of the role of anger in attaining goals.55. What's Paragraph 4 mainly about?A.The problem of the research.B.The background of the research.C. The process of the research.D. The significance of the research.56. What's Lench's attitude to their research?A. Skeptical.B. Favorable.C. Uncaring.D. Critical.【魔法带练】串联题干53.What is commonly believed concerning people's emotions?54.Why did researchers do a series of experiments?55.What's Paragraph 4 mainly about?56.What's Lench's attitude to their research?得出主题词：experiments→research→people’s emotions这个实验结果饱受争议引起公众的担忧或者这个实验专门针对人类的情感？53. What is commonly believed concerning people's emotions?关于人的情绪，人们通常认为什么A.It is believed that a state of joy is great.(同义替换：great=perfect)人们相信快乐的状态是完美的。

【英语一】2021考研英语一真题及解析

2021年全国硕士研究生招生考试英语（一）试题Section I Use of EnglishDirections:Read the following text. Choose the best word(s) for each numbered blank and mark [A], [B], [C]or [D] on the ANSWER SHEET. (10 points)Fluid intelligence is the type of intelligence that has to do with short-term memory and the ability to think quickly, logically, and abstractly in order to solve new problems. It 1 in young adulthood, levels out for a period of time, and then 2 starts to slowly decline as we age. But 3 aging is inevitable, scientists are finding that certain changes in brain function may not be.One study found that muscle loss and the 4 of body fat around the abdomen are associated with a decline in fluid intelligence. This suggests the 5 that lifestyle factors might help preventor 6 this type of decline.The researchers looked at data that 7 measurements of lean muscle and abdominalfat from more than 4,000 middle-to-older-aged men and women and 8 that data to reported changes in fluid intelligence over a six-year period. They found that middle-aged people9 higher measures of abdominal fat 10 worse on measures of fluid intelligence as the years 11 .For women, the association may be 12 to changes in immunity that resulted from excess abdominal fat; in men, the immune system did not appear to be 13 . It is hoped that future studies could 14 these differences and perhaps lead to different 15 for men and women.16 , there are steps you can 17 to help reduce abdominal fat and maintain lean muscle mass as you age in order to protect both your physical and mental 18 . The two highly recommended lifestyle approaches are maintaining or increasing your 19 of aerobic exercise and following a Mediterranean-style 20 that is high in fiber and eliminates highly processed foods.1.[A] pauses2.[A] alternatively [B] returns[B] formally[C] peaks[C] accidentally[D] fades[D] generally3. [A] while [B] since [C] once [D] until4. [A] detection [B] accumulation [C] consumption [D] separation5. [A] possibility [B] decision [C] goal [D] requirement6. [A] delay [B] ensure [C] seek [D] utilize7. [A] modified [B] supported [C] included [D] predicted8. [A] devoted [B] compared [C] converted [D] applied9. [A] with [B] above [C] by [D] against10. [A] lived [B] managed [C] scored [D] played11. [A] ran out [B] set off [C] drew in [D] went by12. [A] superior [B] attributable [C] parallel [D]resistant13. [A] restored [B] isolated [C] involved [D] controlled14. [A] alter [B] spread [C] remove [D] explain15. [A] compensations [B] symptoms [C] demands [D] treatments16. [A] Likewise [B] Meanwhile [C] Therefore [D] Instead17. [A] change [B] watch [C] count [D] take18. [A] well-being [B] process [C] formation [D]coordination19. [A] level [B] love [C] knowledge [D] space20. [A] design [B] routine [C] diet [D] prescriptionSection II Reading ComprehensionPart ADirections:Read the following four texts. Answer the questions after each text by choosing [A], [B], [C] or [D]. Mark your answers on the ANSWER SHEET. (40 points)Text 1How can the train operators possibly justify yet another increase to rail passenger fares? It has become a grimly reliable annual ritual: every January the cost of travelling by train rises, imposing a significant extra burden on those who have no option but to use the rail network to get to work or otherwise. This year’s rise, an average of 2.7 percent, may be a fraction lower than last year’s, b ut it is still well above the official Consumer Price Index (CPI) measure of inflation.Successive governments have permitted such increases on the grounds that the cost of investing in and running the rail network should be borne by those who use it, rather than the general taxpayer. Why, the argument goes, should a car-driving pensioner from Lincolnshire have to subsidise the daily commute of a stockbroker from Surrey? Equally, there is a sense that the travails of commuters in the South East, many of whom will face among the biggest rises, have received too much attention compared to those who must endure the relatively poor infrastructure of the Midlands and the North.However, over the past 12 months, those commuters have also experienced some of the worst rail strikes in years. It is all very well train operators trumpeting the improvements they are making to the network, but passengers should be able to expect a basic level of service for the substantial sums they are now paying to travel. The responsibility for the latest wave of strikes rests on the unions. However, there is a strong case that those who have been worst affected by industrial action should receive compensation for the disruption they have suffered.The Government has pledged to change the law to introduce a minimum service requirement so that, even when strikes occur, services can continue to operate. This should form part of a wider package of measures to address the long-running problems on Britain’s railways. Yes, more investment is needed, but passengers will not be willing to pay more indefinitely if they must also endure cramped, unreliable services, punctuated by regular chaos when timetables are changed, or planned maintenance is managed incompetently. The threat of nationalisation may have been seen off for now, but it will return with a vengeance if the justified anger of passengers is not addressed in short order.21.The author holds that this year’s increase in rail passengers fares .[A]will ease train operation’s burden[B]has kept pace with inflation[C]is a big surprise to commuters[D]remains an unreasonable measure22.The stockbroker in Para. 2 is used to stand for .[A]car drivers[B]rail traverllers[C]local investors[D]ordinary tax payers23.It is indicated in Para. 3 that train operators .[A]are offering compensations to commuters[B]are trying to repair ralations with the unions[C]have failed to provide an adequate source[D]have suffered huge losses owing to the strikes24.If unable to calm down passengers, the railways may have to face .[A]the loss of investment[B]the collapse of operations[C]a reduction of revenue[D]a change of ownership25.Which of the following would be the best title for the text?[A]Who Are to Blame for the Strikes?[B]Constant Complaining Doesn’t Worlk[C]Can Nationalization Bring Hope?[D]Ever-rising Fares Aren’t SustainableText 2Last year marked the third year in a row of when Indonesia’s bleak rate of deforestation has slowed in pace. One reason for the turnaround may be the country’s antipoverty program.In 2007, Indonesia started phasing in a program that gives money to its poorest residents under certain conditions, such as requiring people to keep kids in school or get regular medical care. Called conditional cash transfers or CCTs, these social assistance programs are designed to reduce inequality and break the cycle of poverty. They’re already used in dozens of countries worldwide. In Indonesia, the program has provided enough food and medicine to substantially reduce severe growth problems among children.But CCT programs don’t generally consider effects on the environment. In fact, poverty alleviation and environmental protection are often viewed as conflicting goals, says Paul Ferraro, an economist at Johns Hopkins University.Th at’s because economic growth can be correlated with environmental degradation, while protecting the environment is sometimes correlated with greater poverty. However, those correlations don’t prove cause and effect. The only previous study analyzing causal ity, based on an area in Mexico that had instituted CCTs, supported the traditional view. There, as people got more money, some of them may have more cleared land for cattle to raise for meat, Ferraro says.Such programs do not have to negatively affect the environment, though. Ferraro wanted to see if Indonesia’s poverty-alleviation program was affecting deforestation. Indonesia has the third-largest area of tropical forest in the world and one of the highest deforestation rates.Ferraro analyzed satellite data showing annual forest loss from 2008 to 2012—including during Indonesia’s phase-in of the antipoverty program—in 7,468 forested villages across 15 provinces and multiple islands. The duo separated the effects of the CCT program on forest loss from other factors, like weather and macroeconomic changes, which were also affecting forest loss. With that, “we see that the program is associated with a 30 percent reduction in deforestation,” Ferraro says.That’s likely because the rural poor are using th e money as makeshift insurance policies against inclement weather, Ferraro says. Typically, if rains are delayed, people may clear land to plant more rice to supplement their harvests. With the CCTs, individuals instead can use the money to supplement their harvests.Whether this research translates elsewhere is anybody’s guess. Ferraro suggests the importance of growing rice and market access. And regardless of transferability, the study shows that what’s good for people may also be good for the value of the avoided deforestation just for carbon dioxide emissions alone is more than the program costs.”26.According to the first two paragraphs, CCT programs aim to .[A]facilitate health care reform[B]help poor families get better off[C]improve local education systems[D]lower deforestation rates27.The study based on an area in Mexico is cited to show that .[A]cattle rearing has been a major means of livelihood for the poor[B]CCT programs have helped preserve traditional lifestyles[C]antipoverty efforts require the participation of local farmers[D]economic growth tends to cause environmental degradation28.In his study about Indonesia, Ferraro intends to find out .[A]its acceptance level of CCTs[B]its annual rate of poverty alleviation[C]the relation of CCTs to its forest loss[D]the role of its forests in climate change29.According to Ferraro, the CCT program in Indonesia is most valuable in that .[A]it will benefit other Asian countries[B]it will reduce regional inequality[C]it can protect the environment[D]it can boost grain production30.What is the text centered on?[A]The effects of a program.[B]The debates over a program.[C]The process of a study.[D]The transferability of a study.Text 3As a historian, who’s always searching for the text or the image that makes us re-evaluate the past. I’ve become preoccupied with looking for photographs that show our Victorian ancestors smiling (what better way to shatter the image of 19th-century prudery?). I’ve found quite a few, and—since I started posting them on Twitter—they have been causing quite a stir. People have been surprised to see evidence that Victorians had fun and could, and did, laugh. They are noting that the Victorians suddenly seem to become more human as the hundred-or-so years that separate us fade away through our common experience of laughter.Of course, I need to concede that my collection of “Smiling Victorians” makes up only a tiny percentage of the vast catalogue of photographic portraiture created between 1840 and 1900, the majority of which show sitters posing miserably and stiffly in front of painted backdrops, or staring absently into the middle distance. How do we explain this trend?During the 1840s and 1850s, in the early days of photography, exposure times were notoriously long: the daguerreotype photographic method (producing an image on a silvered copper plate) could take several minutes to complete, resulting in blurred images as sitters shifted position or adjusted their limbs. The thought of holding a fixed grin as the camera performed its magical duties was too much to contemplate, and so a non-committal blank stare became the norm.But exposure times were much quicker by the 1880s, and the introduction of the Box Brownie and other portable ca meras meant that, though slow by today’s digital standards, the exposure was almost instantaneous. Spontaneous smiles were relatively easy to capture by the 1890s, so we must look elsewhere for an explanation of why Victorians still hesitated to smile.One explanation might be the loss of dignity displayed through a cheesy grin. “Nature gave us lips to conceal our teeth,” ran one popular Victorian maxim, alluding to the fact that before the birth of proper dentistry, mouths were often in a shocking state of hygiene. A flashing set of healthy and clean, regular “pearly whites” was a rare sight in Victorian society, the preserve of the super-rich (and even then, dental hygiene was not guaranteed).A toothy grin (especially when there were gaps or blackened gnashers) lacked class: drunks, tramps, prostitutes and buffoonish music hall performers might gurn and grin with a smile as wide as Lewis Carroll’s gum-exposing Cheshire Cat, but it was not a becoming look for properly bred persons. Even Mark Twain, a man who enjoyed a hearty laugh, said that when it came to photographic portraits there could be “nothing more damning than a silly, foolish smile fixed forever”.31.According to Paragraph 1, the author’s posts on Twitter .[A]illustrated the development of Victorian photography[B]highlighted social media’s role in Victorian studies[C]re-evaluated the Victorian’s notion of public image[D]changed people’s impression of the Victorians32.What does the author say about the Victorian portraits he has collected?[A]They are rare among photographs of that age.[B]They show effects of different exposure times.[C]They mirror 19th-century social conventions.[D]They are in popular use among historians.33.What might have kept the Victorians from smiling for pictures in the 1890s?[A]Their inherent social sensitiveness.[B]Their tension before the camera.[C]Their distrust of new inventions.[D]Their unhealthy dental condition.34.Mark Twain is quoted to show that the disapproval of smiles in pictures was .[A]a deep-root belief[B]a misguided attitude[C]a controversial view[D]a thought-provoking idea35.Which of the following questions does the text answer?[A]Why did most Victorians look stern in photographs?[B]Why did the Victorians start to view photographs?[C]What made photography develop slowly in the Victorian period?[D]How did smiling in photographs become a post-Victorian norm?Text 4From the early days of broadband, advocates for consumers and web-based companies worried that the cable and phone companies selling broadband connections had the power and incentive to favor their own or their partners’ websites and services over those of their rivals. That’s why there has been such a strong demand for rules that would prevent broadband provider s from picking winners and losers online, preserving the freedom and innovation that have been the lifeblood of the internet.Yet that demand has been almost impossible to fill —in part because of pushback from broadband providers, anti-regulatory conservatives and the courts. A federal appeals court weighed in again Tuesday, but instead of providing a badly needed resolution, it only prolonged the fight. At issue before the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit was the latest take of the Federal Communications Commission on net neutrality, adopted on a party-line vote in 2017. The Republican-penned order not only eliminated the strict net neutrality rules the FCC had adopted when it had a Democratic majority in 2015, but rejected the commission’s authority to require broadband providers to do much of anything. The order also declared that state and local governments couldn’t regulate broadband providers either.The commission argued that other agencies would protect against anti-competitive behavior, such as a broadband-providing conglomerate like AT&T favoring its own video-streaming service at the expense of Netflix and Apple TV. Yet the FCC also ended the investigations of broadband providers that imposed data caps on their rivals’ streaming services but not their own.On Tuesday, the appeals court unanimously upheld the 2017 order deregulating broadband providers, citing a Supreme Court ruling from 2005 that upheld a similarly deregulatory move. But Judge Patricia Millett rightly argued in a concurring opinion that "the result is unhinged from the realities of modern broadband service," and said Congress or the Supreme Court could intervene to "avoid trapping Internet regulation in technological anachronism."In th e meantime, the court threw out the FCC’s attempt to block all state rules on net neutrality, while preserving the commission’s power to pre-empt individual state laws that undermine its order. That means more battles like the one now going on between the Justice Department and California, which enacted a tough net neutrality law in the wake of the FCC’s abdication.The endless legal battles and back-and-forth at the FCC cry out for Congress to act. It needs to give the commission explicit authority once and for all to bar broadband providers from meddling in the traffic on their network and to create clear rules protecting openness and innovation online.36.There has long been concern that broadband provides would .[A]bring web-based firms under control[B]slow down the traffic on their network[C]show partiality in treating clients[D]intensify competition with their rivals37.Faced with the demand for net neutrality rules, the FCC .[A]sticks to an out-of-date order[B]takes an anti-regulatory stance[C]has issued a special resolution[D]has allowed the states to intervene38.What can be learned about AT&T from Paragraph 3?[A]It protects against unfair competition[B]It engages in anti-competitive practices.[C]It is under the FCC'S investigation.[D]It is in pursuit of quality service.39.Judge Patricia Millett argues that the appeals court's decision .[A]focuses on trivialities[B]conveys an ambiguous message[C]is at odds with its earlier rulings[D]is out of touch with reality40.What does the author argue in the last paragraph?[A]Congress needs to take action to ensure net neutrality.[B]The FCC should be put under strict supervision.[C]Rules need to be set to diversify online services.[D]Broadband providers' rights should be protected.Part BDirections：In the following text, some sentences have been removed. For questions 41–45, choose the most suitable one from the list A–G to fit into each of numbered blanks. There are two extra choices, which do not fit in any of the blanks. Mark your answers on the ANSWER SHEET. (10 points) In the movies and on television, artificial intelligence (AI) is typically depicted as something sinister that will upend our way of life. When it comes to AI in business, we often hear about it in relation to automation and the impending loss of jobs, but in what ways is AI changing companies and the larger economy that don’t involve doom-and-gloom mass unemployment predictions?A recent survey of manufacturing and service industries from Tata Consultancy Services found that companies currently use AI more often in computer-to-computer activities than in automating human activities. One common application? Preventing electronic security breaches, which, rather than eliminating IT jobs, actually makes those personnel more valuable to employers, because they help firms prevent hacking attempts.Here are a few other ways AI is aiding companies without replacing employees:Better Hiring PracticesCompanies are using artificial intelligence to remove some of the unconscious bias from hiring decisions. “There are experiments that show that, naturally, the results of interviews aremuch more biased than what AI does,” says Domingos. In addition, (41) One company that’s doing this is called Blendoor. It uses analytics t o help identify where there may be bias in the hiring process.More Effective MarketingSome AI software can analyze and optimize marketing email subject lines to increase open rates. One company in the UK, Phrasee, claims their software can outperform humans by up to 10 percent when it comes to email open rates. This can mean millions more in revenue. (42)These are “tools that help people use data, not a replacement for people,” says Patrick H. Winston, a professor of artificial intelligence and computer science at MIT.Saving Customers MoneyEnergy companies can use AI to help customers reduce their electricity bills, saving them money while helping the environment. Companies can also optimize their own energy use and cut down on the cost of electricity. Insurance companies, meanwhile, can base their premiums on AI models that more accurately access risk. (43)Improved Accuracy“Machine learning often provides a more reliable form of statistics, which makes data more valuable,” says Winston. It “helps people make smarter decisions.”(44)Protecting and Maintaining InfrastructureA number of companies, particularly in energy and transportation, use AI image processing technology to inspect infrastructure and prevent equipment failu re or leaks before they happen. “If they fail first and then you fix them, it’s very expensive,” says Domingos. “ (45) ”[A]I replace the boring parts of your job. If you're doing research, you can have AI go out andlook for relevant sources and information that otherwise you just wouldn't have time for.[B]One accounting firm, EY, uses an AI system that helps review contracts during an audit. This process, along with employees reviewing the contracts, is faster and more accurate.[C]There are also companies like Acquisio, which analyzes advertising performance across multiple channels like Adwords, Bing and social media and makes adjustments or suggestions about where advertising funds will be most effective.[D]You want to predict if something needs attention now and point to where it’s useful for [employees] to go to.[E]“Before, they might not insure the ones who felt like a high risk or charge them too much,” says Domingos, “or they would charge them too litt le and then it would cost [the company] money.”[F]We’re also giving our customers better channels versus picking up the phone … to accomplish something beyond human scale.[G]AI looks at résumés in greater numbers than humans would be able to, and selects the more promising candidates.Part CDirections:Read the following text carefully and then translate the underlined segments into Chinese. Your translation should be written neatly on the ANSWER SHEET. (10 points)World War II was the watershed event for higher education in modern western societies. (46) Those societies came out of the war with levels of enrollment that had been roughly constant at 3-5% of the relevant age groups during the decades before the war. But after the war, great social and political changes arising out of the successful war against Fascism created a growing demand in European and American economies for increasing numbers of graduates with more than asecondary school education. (47) And the demand that rose in those societies for entry to higher education extended to groups and social classes that had not thought of attending to a university before the war. These demands resulted in a very rapid expansion of the systems of higher education, beginning in the 1960s and developing very rapidly though unevenly in the 1970s and 1980s.The growth of higher education manifests itself in at least three quite different ways, and these in turn have given rise to different sets of problems. There was first the rate of growth: (48) in many countries of Western Europe the numbers of students in higher education doubled within five-year periods during the decade of the 1960s and doubled again in seven, eight, or 10 years by the middle of the 1970s. Second, growth obviously affected the absolute size both of systems and individual institutions. And third, growth was reflected in changes in the proportion of the relevant age group enrolled in institutions of higher education.Each of these manifestations of growth carried its own peculiar problems in its wake. For example, a high growth rate placed great strains on the existing structures of governance, of administration, and above all of socialization. When a very large proportion of all the members of an institution are new recruits, they threaten to overwhelm the processes whereby recruits to a more slowly growing system are inducted into its value system and learn its norms and forms. When a faculty or department grows from, say, five to 20 members within three or four years, (49) and when the new staff are predominantly young men and women fresh from postgraduate study, they largely define the norms of academic life in that faculty and its standards. And if the postgraduate student population also grows rapidly and there is loss of a close apprenticeship relationship between faculty members and students, the student culture becomes the chief socializing force for new postgraduate students, with consequences for the intellectual and academic life of the institution—this was seen in America as well as in France, Italy, West Germany, and Japan. (50) High growth rates increased the chances for academic innovation; they also weakened the forms and processes by which teachers and students are admitted into acommunity of scholars during periods of stability or slow growth. In the 1960s and 1970s, European universities saw marked changes in their governance arrangements, with the empowerment of junior faculty and to some degree of students as well. They also saw higher levels of student discontent, reflecting the weakening of traditional forms of academic communities.Section IV WritingPart A51.Directions:One foreign friend of yours has recently graduated from college and intends to find a job in China. Please write an email to him/her to make some suggestions.You should write about 100 words on the ANSWER SHEET.Do not use your own name in the email. Use “ Li Ming” instead. (10 points)Part B52.Directions:Write an essay of 160-200 words based on the pictures below. In your essay, you should1)describe the picture briefly,2)interpret its intended meaning, and3)give your comments.You should write neatly on the ANSWER SHEET. (20 points)2021年答案速查表Section Ⅰ Use of English (10points)5. A6. A7. C8. B9. A 10. C1. C2. D3. A4. B11. D 12. B 13. C 14. D 15. D 16. B 17. D 18. A 19. A 20. CSection Ⅱ Reading Comprehension (60 points)Part A (40 p oints)Text 1 21. D 22. B 23. C 24. D 25. DText 2 26. B 27. D 28. C 29. C 30. AText 3 31. D 32. A 33. D 34. A 35. AText 4 36. C 37. B 38. B 39. D 40. APart B (10 points)41. G 42. C 43. E 44. B 45. DPart C (10 points)46.二次世界大战以后，出现了这样的一些西方国家。

新发展研究生英语一总答案+翻译

Unit 1 Human ReflectionsBefore Reading Activities1. Fill in the blanks with the words you hear.(1) crush; (2) lifetime; (3) deceive; (4) smile; (5) right; (6) grateful; (7) arrives;(8) assurance; (9) return; (10) contentⅡ. Language FocusVocabularyPart A1. stranded;2. emeritus;3. erode;4. wondrous;5. yearning;6. shackled;7. salvation;8. nibble;9. imperfection; 10. eruptPart B1. B2. C3. A4. D5. A6. B7. C8. A9. D 10. BBank-Cloze(1) bored; (2) affiliate; (3) conducted; (4) valid; (5) ranging(6) fulfilling; (7) revealed; (8) tended; (9) Pressure; (10) toughTranslationPart A1. For some, marriage is the grave of love, while for others, marriage is an effective salvation for those who lead a solitary life.2. Blessed with a great historical responsibility, the Conference is destined to have far-reaching impact on the development of the organization.3. All of these show people’s yearning for a bet ter life, so they have been carried forward generation after generation.4. If Congress approved the bill now, the president warned, the fragile peace process that he is trying to keep could fall apart.5. The couple must be tolerant of the little imperfec tions in each other’s character, otherwise their marriage may end up in divorce.Part B爱情是一部电话机，渴望它响起时，它却总是悄无声息；不经心留意时，它又叮铃铃地响起。

2020年英语(二)全国硕士研究生招生考试参考答案及解析

2020年全国硕士研究生招生考试（英语二）参考答案及解析Section Ⅰ Use of English【1】D. tricky解析：考察形容词，but一词前文提到大家都想成为好父母，但是，所以本句要选贬义词，排除BC，根据语义，因为孩子对不同的养育方式反映不同，所以定义好的父母是很难的，很棘手的，D正确，A单调的B.愉悦的C.有指导意义的【2】B. for example解析：考察句子间逻辑关系，上一句提到孩子们对同一种养育方式的反应是不同的，本句中指出一个冷静的、循规蹈矩的孩子可能会比弟弟妹妹对不同的教育方式有更好的反应，很明显是举例子，总分关系，for example最合适，D正确。

A. in addition此外，除了，递进关系，两句话之间不存在递进关系；C. at once. 马上，立刻，用来形容动词的速度之快，不符合原文；D. by accident，偶然意外，形容出乎意料，但是上文提到同样的信息，所以不是偶然意外。

【3】A.Fortunately解析：考察句子间逻辑关系，上文提到很难定义好父母，本句提到有一种是很容易描述的，形成转折关系，所以选择A.Fortunately B.【4】C. describe解析：考察动词，逻辑主语为另外一种父母，根据上文，只有D描述另外一种父母更容易符合上下文，【5】A. while解析：考察逻辑关系词，后一句提到这不是容易的事情，本句说每一个父母都想有耐心，形成转折关系，所以while尽管更合适。

【6】B. task解析：考察名词，this指代上文的有耐心的养育，这是一种任务，而不是一种回答，选择或者入口。

【7】A. tolerant解析：考察形容词，本段一直讲有耐心的养育，所以本句提到因为太累了，太沮丧，没有办法对孩子做到...，空处应该是要选择和有耐心类似的词语，只有A.tolerant有包容性的更贴切原文。

【8】C. push解析：考察动词，后文提到你失去了耐心，要么对孩子大喊大叫，要么说一些对任何人都没有好处的话，所以相应孩子应该是对你做了一些不好的事情，C推的更远，逼的更紧要更符合原文。

Ambiguous Information Portfolio Inertia and Excess Volatility

THE JOURNAL OF FINANCE•VOL.LXVI,NO.6•DECEMBER2011Ambiguous Information,Portfolio Inertia,and Excess VolatilityPHILIPP KARL ILLEDITSCH∗ABSTRACTI study the effects of risk and ambiguity(Knightian uncertainty)on optimal portfoliosand equilibrium asset prices when investors receive information that is difﬁcult tolink to fundamentals.I show that the desire of investors to hedge ambiguity leads toportfolio inertia and excess volatility.Speciﬁcally,when news is surprising,investorsmay not react to price changes even if there are no transaction costs or other marketfrictions.Moreover,I show that small shocks to cashﬂow news,asset betas,or mar-ket risk premia may lead to drastic changes in the stock price and hence to excessvolatility.T HIS PAPER STUDIES THE effects of aversion to risk and ambiguity on optimal portfolios and equilibrium asset prices when investors receive public informa-tion about the value of an asset.Investors lack data or experience to process this new information and thus do not know the asset distribution when they condition on this information.I show that investors’desire to hedge against ambiguity(i)leads to portfolio inertia for risky portfolios and(ii)generates excess volatility for asset prices.Investors face risk and ambiguity when they evaluate an investment in an asset because they know neither the future realization of the asset’s payoff (risk),nor the probability of it occurring(ambiguity).This distinction between∗Illeditsch is with The Wharton School,University of Pennsylvania.I am still looking for words to express my gratitude to my dissertation chair Kerry Back.I would like to thank Campbell Harvey(the Editor)and an anonymous associate editor and referee for their comments,which substantially improved the paper.I would also like to thank Philip Bond;Domenico Cuoco;Larry Epstein;Michael Gallmeyer;Neal Galpin;Jayant Ganguli;Itay Goldstein;Christian Heyerdahl-Larsen;Shane Johnson;Dmitry Livdan;Marcel Rindisbacher;Klaus Ritzberger;Bryan Routledge; Francesco Sangiorgi;Martin Schneider;Nicholas Souleles;Robert Stambaugh;Tommy Stamland; Semih Tartaroglu;Raman Uppal;Julie Wu;Amir Yaron;Motohiro Yogo;Josef Zechner;Stanley Zin;seminar participants at Mays Business School,Rotman School of Management,Stern School of Business,Wharton School,Carnegie Mellon,University of Amsterdam,Tilburg University, Warwick Business School,Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration(NHH), Norwegian School of Management(BI),Vienna Graduate School of Finance,Columbia University; and participants at the New Stars in Finance Conference in Madrid,the Annual Meeting of the Society for Economic Dynamics in Istanbul,the Annual Meeting of the European Finance Association in Bergen,and the Workshop on Risk,Ambiguity,and Decisions in Honor of Daniel Ellsberg in Vienna for helpful comments and suggestions.I am also very grateful for the generous support of the Mays Business School during my cation.The paper previously circulated under the title“Ambiguous Information,Risk Aversion,and Asset Pricing.”22132214The Journal of Finance Rrisk and ambiguity is often attributed to Knight(1921).In this paper,investors’preferences are represented by“max-min”expected utility.In other words, investors evaluate the outcome of an investment with respect to a set of models and then choose the model that leads to the lowest expected utility.These preferences exhibit aversion to ambiguity and are axiomatized by Gilboa and Schmeidler(1989).Moreover,the axioms describe behavior that is consistent with experimental evidence(Ellsberg(1961))and more recent portfolio choice experiments(Ahn et al.(2010)and Bossaerts et al.(2010)).By focusing on the interaction between risk and ambiguity when investors process a public signal with unknown precision,the contribution of this paper is twofold.First,this paper provides novel predictions for optimal portfolios that may help explain why many investors who own stocks do not show much trading activity.For instance,using data from the Survey of Consumer Finances and from TIAA-CREF,Ameriks and Zeldes(2004)document that almost half of the sample members made no active changes to their portfolio allocation.I show that,when news is disappointing,investors canﬁnd risky stock allocations that hedge against ambiguous news and thus it is optimal to stick to these allocations even if prices change.Hence,investors exhibit portfolio inertia for risky portfolios without any market frictions such as transaction costs and liquidity needs(Allen and Gale(1994)and Williamson (1994)),entry costs(Vissing-Jorgensen(2002),Paiella(2007),and Yaron and Zhang(2000)),or inattention(Abel,Eberly,and Panageas(2007)).More-over,portfolio inertia occurs more often when investors also use the stock to hedge other risks(e.g.,labor income)and is more severe when news is very surprising.1Second,this paper produces new insights into the excess volatility puzzle of stock returns(Shiller(1992)).Speciﬁcally,Iﬁnd that small shocks to cash ﬂow news may result in drastic changes in the interpretation of this news and hence an econometrician observing the resulting large stock price movements may conclude excess volatility.2The ampliﬁcation of these news shocks is more severe for risky stocks.Similarly,I show that when past evidence about the cashﬂows of an asset are very disappointing,small shocks to the beta of the asset with the market portfolio and/or the market risk premium may result in drastic changes in the stock price.Hence,the interaction between risk and ambiguity may help explain the spikes in stock price volatility around earnings announcements(Dubinsky and Johannes(2005))or shortly after very bad news such as the Cuban Missile Crisis,the assassination of John F.Kennedy,the9/11 terrorist attacks,or major defaults such as those of LTCM,Enron,WorldCom, and Lehman Brothers(Bloom(2009)).1Hence,this paper may shed some light on the fact that in the recent crisis investors did not trade as much as one would expect in response to very bad news.“It is kind of striking,”Mr.Utkus (from Vanguard)says.“We had the most drastic market decline since the Depression,we nearly had a total collapse of the globalﬁnancial system,and all that caused most people not to do much at all.”See Jason Zweig,Why do investors sit tight in401(k)s?The Wall Street Journal,B1,2009.2Shiller(1992)writes in the introduction:“Prices change in substantial measure because the investing public en masse capriciously changes its mind.”Ambiguous Information,Portfolio Inertia,and Excess V olatility2215 This paper is most closely related to Epstein and Schneider(2008),who investigate the impact of ambiguous information on stock prices assuming a representative investor who is risk-neutral and averse to ambiguous informa-tion.I build on their work along two dimensions:(i)investors are risk-averse3 and(ii)investors receive stochastic labor income.I show that the interaction between risk and ambiguity leads to portfolio inertia for risky portfolios when investors process ambiguous news.Moreover,I show that risk aversion has qualitatively very different implications for stock prices.Speciﬁcally,the stock price has a discontinuity that it does not have when investors are risk-neutral and thus the effects of ambiguity aversion on stock prices can be distinguished from the effects of risk alone.4It is well known that ambiguity aversion leads to portfolio inertia for the risk-free portfolio and thus helps explain nonmarket participation(Dow and Werlang(1992),Cao,Wang,and Zhang(2005),and Epstein and Schneider (2007)).Epstein and Schneider(2010)show that portfolio inertia can also arise for risky portfolios when investors use an ambiguous asset to hedge a risky bond position.Epstein and Wang(1994)emphasize that portfolio inertia can arise for long stock positions and thus there may exist a continuum of equilibrium stock prices.In this paper,I show that the interaction between risk and ambiguity leads to portfolio inertia for risky portfolios when investors process ambiguous news,and this inertia leads to an interval of equilibrium stock prices for some fundamentals.This paper is also related to recent papers by Easley and O’Hara.Easley and O’Hara(2010)show that ambiguity aversion can explain sudden market freezes.In this paper,investors are averse to ambiguity in the sense of Bewley (2002)and thus portfolio inertia arises as part of the preference speciﬁcation. Easley and O’Hara(2009)study the implications of regulation and ambigu-ity on equilibrium asset prices when some investors are ambiguous about the mean and variance of an asset in the sense of Gilboa and Schmeidler(1989) and other investors are standard expected utility maximizers.Theyﬁnd that portfolio inertia arises only in the risk-free portfolio and thus ambiguity aver-sion only indirectly affects equilibrium asset prices.In this paper,I show that ambiguity-averse investors participate in the stock market but nevertheless exhibit portfolio inertia and thus their behavior directly affects equilibrium asset prices.Klibanoff,Marinacci,and Mukerji(2005)introduce“smooth”preferences to describe ambiguity-averse behavior.For instance,Caskey(2009)studies how the aggregation of information affects equity prices when some investors are standard expected utility maximizers and some have smooth ambiguity aver-sion preferences.I focus on kinked preferences instead of smooth preferences because Ahn et al.(2010)and Bossaerts et al.(2010)ﬁnd that individuals’3Epstein and Schneider(2008)consider an example in which the signal can take on two values and solve it numerically when investors are risk-averse.4The issue of observational equivalence is often raised in the literature(see Backus,Routledge, and Zin(2004)).2216The Journal of Finance Rbehavior is more easily described with kinked than with smooth preferences. They also document substantial heterogeneity in risk and ambiguity aversion and show that a nonnegligible fraction of individuals’behavior is consistent with standard expected utility.Hence,I also study the effects of investor het-erogeneity on equilibrium stock prices and show that the excess volatility result is robust to aggregation.This paper is also related to the literature on learning about fundamen-tals to explain the excess volatility puzzle.Brennan and Xia(2001)and Veronesi(2000)consider an economy in which investors learn about the un-observable expected dividend growth rate.In these papers,investors have standard expected utility preferences and thus consider a single posterior distribution to determine expected utility.I also study the effects of learn-ing about signal quality on optimal portfolios and equilibrium asset prices when investors are standard expected utility maximizers.I show that asset demand is a strictly decreasing and smooth function of the stock price and thus there is no portfolio inertia.Moreover,the equilibrium stock price is a continuous and smooth function of the signal and thus there is no excess volatility.Routledge and Zin(2009)and Caballero and Krishnamurthy(2008)study the connection between ambiguity and liquidity.Routledge and Zin(2009)consider aﬁnancial intermediary who makes a market in a derivative security and show that ambiguity can drastically increase the bid-ask spread and hence reduce liquidity.Caballero and Krishnamurthy(2008)study the effects of ambiguity about the impact of aggregate liquidity shocks on investors and show that this ambiguity can lead to a socially inefﬁcientﬂight to quality.In this paper,the interaction between risk and ambiguity leads to portfolio inertia and excess volatility.The rest of the paper is organized as follows.In Section I,I introduce the model.In Section II,I solve for optimal asset demand and discuss the portfolio inertia results.In Section III,I solve for equilibrium stock prices and in Section IV,I discuss the robustness of the results to aggregation.In Section V,I study the effects of Bayesian learning on optimal portfolios and equilibrium asset prices.I conclude in Section VI.I.ModelSuppose there are two dates0and1.Investors can invest in a risk-free asset and a risky asset.Let p denote the price of the risky asset,˜d the future value or dividend of the risky asset,θthe number of shares invested in the risky asset,and˜L the random endowment that investors receive at date1.There is no consumption at date0.The risk-free asset is used as numeraire,so the risk-free rate is zero.Hence,future wealth˜w is given by˜w=w0+(˜d−p)θ+˜L,(1) where w0denotes initial wealth.Ambiguous Information,Portfolio Inertia,and Excess V olatility2217Investors receive a signal˜s about the future value of the asset˜d.The signal˜s is conditionally independent of labor income˜L.A model consists of a marginal distribution of˜d and˜L and a conditional distribution of˜s given˜d.Investors know neither the marginal distribution nor the conditional distribution.In this paper,I focus on ambiguity-averse investors in the sense of Gilboa and Schmeidler(1989).Speciﬁcally,let u(·)denote the Bernoulli utility function of the investor,m a model,M(s)the set of all models considered by the investor, and E m[·]the expectation with respect to the belief generated by the model m.An ambiguity-averse investor in the sense of Gilboa and Schmeidler(1989) chooses a portfolioθto maximizeinfm∈M(s)E m[u(˜w)|˜s=s](2)subject to the budget constraint given in equation(1).The curvature of the utility function u(·)determines an investor’s risk aver-sion whereas the size of M(s)determines an investor’s aversion to ambiguity. Investors who are averse to ambiguity behave as if they have a set of models(a set of marginals and a set of conditionals)in mind when evaluating the outcome of a decision.The worst-case scenario(the belief generated by m that leads to the lowest expected utility)that they consider may depend on the portfolio positionθand/or the realization of the signal s.Suppose that both the marginal distribution of˜d and˜L and the conditional distribution of˜s given˜d are normal.There is no ambiguity about the marginal distribution of˜d and˜L and thus there is a single normal marginal:5˜d ˜L∼N¯d¯L,σ2dρσdσLρσdσLσ2L.(3)Investors are ambiguous about the conditional distribution of˜s given˜d and thus there is a family of conditionals:˜s=˜d+˜ε,˜ε∼N(0,σ2),(4) whereσ2∈[σ2a,σ2b]⊂[0,∞].Investors are ambiguous about the precision of the signal and thus consider a set of precisions when processing this signal.The signal is conditionally independent of labor income and thus Cov[˜ε,˜L]=0.I follow Gilboa and Schmeidler(1993)and assume that investors update their beliefs using Bayes’s rule and observing the signal does not lead to a reduction in ambiguity and thus M(s)=M.6Speciﬁcally,each model m∈M determines5Epstein and Schneider(2008)consider a simple experiment that describes how ambiguous in-formation can lead to ambiguity about the posterior distribution even though the prior distribution is known.The analysis could be generalized to allow for an ambiguous prior without changing the main results of the paper.I show this in the Internet Appendix of this article,which is available online in the“Supplements and Datasets”section at /supplements.asp.6Another updating rule that considers this rule as a special case is proposed in Epstein and Schneider(2007).See also Epstein and Schneider(2003)for updating Gilboa and Schmeidler(1989) preferences in dynamic models.2218The Journal of Finance Ra conditional belief for ˜d and ˜L given ˜s and hence standard normal–normalupdating for each σ2∈[σ2a ,σb 2]leads to˜d ˜L|˜s =s ∼N φ ¯d +φ(s −¯d )¯L +z φ(s −¯d ) , σ2d (1−φ)ρσd σL (1−φ)ρσd σL (1−φ)σ2L (1−φρ2) ,(5)where z =ρσL σd and φ=σ2d /(σ2d +σ2).If labor income is correlated with the asset (z =0),then investors use the signal to learn about future labor income,whichgenerates ambiguity about the distribution of future labor income.It is convenient to describe the informativeness of the signal by φand hence the set of posterior beliefs is given by [φa ,φb ]⊂[0,1]withφa =σ2d/ σ2d +σ2b (6)φb =σ2d / σ2d +σ2a .(7)The utility of an investor who is averse to ambiguous information,holds θshares of the risky asset,and receives the random endowment ˜Lis therefore 7min φ∈[φa ,φb ]E φ[u (w 0+(˜d −p )θ+˜L )|˜s =s ].(8)Investors are more averse to ambiguous information if the interval [φa ,φb ]is large and therefore the degree of aversion to ambiguous information can be measured by φb −φa .II.Optimal DemandIn this section,I determine the optimal portfolio of an investor who can invest in a risky asset and a risk-free asset and who receives stochastic labor income and an ambiguous signal about the future value of the risky asset.I show that there is a range of prices for which investors do not change their stock position and hence exhibit portfolio inertia.Suppose investors have constant absolute risk aversion (CARA)utility over future wealth ˜w (i.e.,u (˜w )=−e −γ˜wwith γ>0)and let CE(θ)denote the cer-tainty equivalent of an ambiguity-averse investor.Then the investor’s utility given in equation (8)is equal to u CE(θ) with8CE(θ)=min φ∈[φa ,φb ](E φ[˜w |˜s =s ]−12γVar φ[˜w |˜s =s ]).(9)The assumption of CARA utility and normal beliefs leads to mean-variance preferences over future wealth (ﬁnancial wealth plus labor income)in which the informativeness of the signal measured by φaffects both the mean and7The objective function is assumed to be continuous and the feasible set is compact and hence I can replace the inﬁmum by the minimum.8The posterior mean and residual variance of future wealth are given in equations (A1)and (A2)of the Appendix.Ambiguous Information,Portfolio Inertia,and Excess V olatility 2219the variance.The worst-case scenarios for the mean and the variance cannot be chosen independent of each other and hence the belief of an ambiguity-averse investor will depend on the realization of the signal s ,the portfolio position θ,and the beta of labor income with the asset z as the next proposition shows.9P ROPOSITION 1(Preferences ):Let ˆθ≡2(¯d −s )/(γσ2d ).ThenCE(θ)=⎧⎪⎪⎨⎪⎪⎩E φa [˜w |˜s =s ]−12γVar φa [˜w |˜s =s ]if θ+z ≤min(ˆθ,0)E φb [˜w |˜s =s ]−12γVar φb [˜w |˜s =s ]if min(ˆθ,0)<θ+z <max(ˆθ,0)E φa [˜w |˜s =s ]−12γVar φa [˜w |˜s =s ]if θ+z ≥max(ˆθ,0).(10)The certainty equivalent CE(θ)is a continuous and concave function of the stock demand θ.Moreover ,it is continuously differentiable except for the portfolios θ=−z and θ=ˆθ−z if s =¯d .To gain some more intuition,consider an investor who is contemplating a long position in the asset (θ>0).The worst-case scenario for the posterior asset mean is a reliable signal (high φ)if bad news arrives and an unreliable signal (low φ)if good news arrives because the mean is signiﬁcantly adjusted downwards with bad news and moderately adjusted upwards with good news.Similarly,the worst-case scenario for the posterior asset mean when an in-vestor is contemplating a short position in the asset (θ<0)is an unreliable signal when bad news arrives and a reliable signal when good news arrives.On the other hand,the worst-case scenario for the residual asset variance is always an unreliable signal because,in this case,less risk is resolved by the signal.Suppose there is no correlation between the asset and labor income (z =0)and hence there is no ambiguity about future labor income.If the signal conveys bad news,then a reliable signal decreases the posterior asset mean (since more weight is put on the signal)but it also reduces the residual variance (since more risk is resolved by the signal).Investors are more worried about the posterior mean for small risks and are more worried about the residual variance for big risks.Hence,the signal is treated as reliable (φ=φb )for moderate long positions in the asset (0<θ<ˆθ)and as unreliable (φ=φa )otherwise.There is a portfolio with an intermediate level of risk (θ=ˆθ)for which the counteracting mean and variance effects offset each other and utility becomes independent of signal precision.This portfolio is more risky if there is a big news surprise because,in this case,there is more ambiguity about the mean.It is less risky when investors are more risk-averse because,in this case,investors are more worried about the ambiguous variance.The second portfolio for which utility does not depend on signal precision is the riskless portfolio θ=0.9Easley and O’Hara (2009)consider investors with CARA utility who are ambiguous about the posterior mean and the variance of the asset.In their paper,investors always choose the highest possible variance and hence portfolio inertia only occurs at certainty.2220The Journal of Finance RSuppose labor income is correlated with the asset(z=0)and thus there is also ambiguity about future labor income.Then the portfolios for which utility is independent of the signal precision are shifted by the hedging demand for labor income z and therefore areθ=−z andθ=ˆθ−z.To summarize,an investor who has CARA utility and is averse to ambiguous information in the sense of Gilboa and Schmeidler(1989)will evaluate the outcome of a portfolio with respect to the beliefφthat leads to the lowest expected utility.Hence,utility of an ambiguity-averse investor has two kinks if the signal doesn’t conﬁrm the unconditional mean of the dividend and is otherwise smooth.10The optimal demand for the risky asset when investors are averse to risk and ambiguous information is determined below.A.Savage BenchmarkThe demand of a standard expected utility maximizer in the sense of Savage (1954)with subjective beliefφis given in the next proposition.P ROPOSITION2(Optimal Demand—Savage Benchmark):Letφa=φb=φ.Then the demand function for the risky asset isθφ(p)=Eφ[˜d|˜s=s]−pγVarφ[˜d|˜s=s]−z.(11)Investors use the signal to learn about the future value of the asset.Suppose there is no correlation between the endowment and the asset,that is,z=0. Then investors will buy the asset as long as the posterior mean exceeds the asset price and they will sell otherwise.Moreover,investors will buy/sell larger quantities if the signal is more precise.If investors receive an endowment that is correlated with the asset(z=0),then they will use the asset to hedge their labor income risk.For instance,investors will sell some of the asset if their future labor income is positively correlated with the asset(z>0)and buy otherwise(z<0).B.Ambiguity-Averse InvestorsLetθa(p)denote the demand of a Savage investor with subjective beliefφa(a standard expected utility maximizer who treats the signal as unreliable)and θb(p)the demand of a Savage investor with subjective beliefφb(a standard expected utility maximizer who treats the signal as reliable).The solution to the portfolio choice problem of an investor who has CARA utility and is averse to ambiguity is provided in the next theorem.T HEOREM1(Optimal Demand):The optimal demand functionθ(p)for an in-vestor with risk aversionγand aversion to ambiguous information described by10If the signal conﬁrms the expected value of the dividend(s=¯d),then there is no ambiguity about the conditional mean and hence the signal is always treated as unreliable.Ambiguous Information,Portfolio Inertia,and Excess V olatility2221 Figure1.Optimal demand.Both graphs show optimal demand when the signal conveys bad news(s=75<¯d=100).The correlation between the stock and labor income is zero(z=0)in the left graph and positive(z=0.4)in the right graph.In both graphs,demand is plotted as a function of the stock price for a Savage investor with beliefφb(chain-dotted line),for a Savage investor with beliefφa(dashed line),and for an ambiguity-averse investor with a range of beliefs[φa,φb](solid line).There is a range of prices over which an ambiguity-averse investor is neither long nor short the stock,does not change her long stock position,or does not change her short stock position.For all other prices,her demand is equal to the demand of a Savage investor with beliefφa orφb.The parameters areσd=5,γ=2,φa=1/5,andφb=4/5.[φa,φb]is continuously decreasing in p if s=¯d and continuously nonincreasing in p if s=¯d.Speciﬁcally,letˆθ=2(¯d−s)/(γσ2d).Thenθ(p)=⎧⎪⎪⎪⎪⎪⎪⎪⎪⎨⎪⎪⎪⎪⎪⎪⎪⎪⎩θa(p)p≤p1≡μφa(s)−max(ˆθ,0)γvφamax(ˆθ,0)−z p1<p≤p2≡μφb(s)−max(ˆθ,0)γvφbθb(p)p2<p≤p3≡μφb(s)−min(ˆθ,0)γvφbmin(ˆθ,0)−z p3<p≤p4≡μφa(s)−min(ˆθ,0)γvφaθa(p)p>p4,(12)whereμφ(s)=¯d+φ(s−¯d)denotes the posterior asset mean and vφ=σ2d(1−φ) denotes the residual asset variance when the signal precision isφ.Suppose the asset is uncorrelated with labor income(z=0).Optimal demand when the signal conveys bad news(s<¯d)is presented in the left graph of Figure1.If ambiguity-averse investors(solid line)take on large long positions in the asset,then they are more worried about risk than a low posterior mean and hence they treat the signal as uninformative.In this case,their demand coincides with the demand of a Savage investor with beliefφa(dashed line). However,if they take on a moderate long position when the signal conveys bad news,then they are more worried about a low posterior mean than risk and hence they treat the signal as informative.In this case,their demand coincides with the demand of a Savage investor with beliefφb(chain-dotted2222The Journal of Finance Rline).11There are two portfoliosθ=0andθ=ˆθfor which the demand of an ambiguity-averse investor is insensitive to changes in the asset price and thus it is distinctly different from the demand of a Savage investor.C.Portfolio InertiaIt is well known in the literature that with max-min preferences portfolio inertia arises at certainty(Dow and Werlang(1992),Cao et al.(2005),and Epstein and Schneider(2007)).For instance,if investors are thinking about taking on a small long(short)position in the asset,then they fear reliable signals that convey bad(good)news and unreliable signals that convey good (bad)news because this means a low posterior mean for their stock position, and hence there is a range of prices for which they would rather not be invested in the stock to avoid ambiguity.Ambiguous information leads to inertia away from certainty because a re-liable signal that conveys bad news decreases the posterior mean but also reduces the residual variance.The counteracting effect of mean and variance on utility exactly offset each other and utility becomes independent of signal precision if investors long the portfolioθ=ˆθ.This portfolio hedges against am-biguity and small price changes cannot entice investors away from it because taking on slightly more or less risk than that of the hedging portfolios leads to a large change in the worst-case scenario belief about the informativeness of the signal.12The right graph of Figure1shows optimal demand when the signal conveys bad news(s<¯d)and asset and labor income are positively correlated(z>0). In this case,the hedging demand for labor income risk is negative and demand shifts downwards.Neither the posterior mean nor the residual variance of fu-ture wealth(ﬁnancial wealth and labor income)depend on the signal precision for the portfoliosθ=−z andθ=ˆθ−z and thus investors exhibit portfolio iner-tia for two risky portfolios.The portfolios that hedge against ambiguity are less invested in the stock because investors need to sell some of the stock to reduce the additional ambiguity about future wealth due to the positive correlation between the asset and labor income.The size of the inaction region depends on the degree of ambiguity and on the news surprise as the next proposition shows.P ROPOSITION3(Portfolio Inertia):The size of the price region at which investors exhibit portfolio inertia is(φb−φa)|s−¯d|.(13)11If ambiguity-averse investors take on a short position in the asset,then they behave like a Savage investor with beliefφa because,in this case,the worst-case scenario for the posterior asset mean and residual asset variances is an unreliable signal.12If the signal conveys good news,then the risky portfolio that hedges against ambiguity is a short position in the asset.。

sequential exporting

Sequential Exporting∗Facundo Albornoz University of BirminghamHéctor F.Calvo PardoUniversity of SouthamptonGregory CorcosNHH Emanuel OrnelasLondon School of Economics,CEPR,CEPFebruary8,2012AbstractMany new exporters give up exporting very shortly,despite substantial entry costs;others shoot up foreign sales and expand to new destinations.We develop a model based on exper-imentation to rationalize these and other dynamic patterns of exportingﬁrms.We posit thatindividual export proﬁtability,while initially uncertain,is positively correlated over time andacross destinations.This leads to“sequential exporting,”where the possibility of proﬁtableexpansion at the intensive and extensive margins makes initial entry costs worthwhile despitehigh failure rates.Firm-level evidence from Argentina’s customs,which would be diﬃcult toreconcile with existing models,strongly supports this mechanism.JEL Codes:F10;D21Keywords:Export dynamics,experimentation,uncertainty,learning,option value ∗We thank for valuable comments and suggestions:Costas Arkolakis,David Atkin,Sami Berlinski,Jordi Blanes-i-Vidal,John Bluedorn,Holger Breinlich,Svetlana Demidova,Nic de Roos,Peter Egger,Robert Elliott,Daniel Ferreira,Rodrigo Fuentes,Juan Carlos Hallak,James Harrigan,Beata Javorcik,Marc-Andreas Muendler,Peter Neary,Brent Neiman,Dimitra Petropoulou,Horst Raﬀ,Steve Redding,Frédéric Robert-Nicoud,Mark Roberts, Andres Rodriguez-Clare,Ina Simonovska,Thierry Verdier,Eric Verhoogen,Zhihong Yu,as well as seminar audi-ences at the AEA meeting,Econometric Society World Congress,ERWIT,CESifo Venice Summer Institute,EEA meeting,SED meeting,PEGGED Trade Workshop,IGC Trade and Development Conference,Geneva Trade and Development Workshop,LACEA,ETSG,the World Bank,Princeton,Yale,Oxford,LSE,and other universities.We also thank the support of the Chair Jacquemin of the UniversitéCatholique de Louvain in choosing this paper for its annual award at the2009European Trade Study Group Meeting.We gratefully acknowledgeﬁnancial support from the British Academy and the ESRC(RES-061-25-0327).E-mails:f.albornoz@;calvo@; gregory.corcos@nhh.no;e.a.ornelas@.1IntroductionHow doﬁrms break in foreign markets?To understand patterns of international trade and the impact of trade liberalization,answering this question convincingly is of central importance.Recent trade theories,starting with Melitz(2003),put great emphasis on the sunk costsﬁrms have to incur to start exporting,and existing estimates indicate that those costs are indeed likely to be high.1 Yet recent empirical research has uncovered patterns of foreign entry that seem diﬃcult to reconcile with high sunk entry costs.For example,describing the behavior of Colombianﬁrms,Eaton et al.(2008)observe that many domesticﬁrms enter foreign markets every year.They often start selling small quantities to a single neighbor country,and yet almost half of them cease all exporting activities in less than a year.Those who survive,on the other hand,tend to expand their presence in their current destinations,and a sizeable fraction of the new exporters also expands to other markets.How can we explain so much entry activity with so little initial sales and so low survival rates?After all,low sales within a short period likely imply negative proﬁts,unless sunk costs are implausibly small.And what could explain the seemingly sequential entry pattern of the surviving exporters?We propose a simple model that rationalizes these recently uncovered empiricalﬁndings, while also providing a number of additional empirical implications for the dynamic pattern of exportingﬁrms.The model relies on a basic premise:ﬁrms are initially uncertain about their export proﬁtability,but ex ante uncertain success factors are highly persistent and have global scope.In other words,aﬁrm’s export proﬁtability is correlated over time within a market and also across destinations.The global scope could reﬂect,for example,export-speciﬁc capabilities that,if possessed,theﬁrm could harness in multiple destinations.If aﬁrm’s export proﬁt in a market is uncertain but correlated over time,entry allows theﬁrm to learn its proﬁt potential there today and in the future.Furthermore,if the proﬁtability uncovered in that market provides information about theﬁrm’s proﬁtability in other foreign markets,this too should be taken into account in the decision to start exporting.This can lead to a process of “sequential exporting,”in whichﬁrms use their initial export experience to infer information on their future success there and elsewhere.Like an option contract,the decision to start exporting gives theﬁrm the opportunity to,in some states of nature,enjoy proﬁts in the future,there and in other markets.In other states of nature,by contrast,there would not be any proﬁt to be made abroad.This reconcilesﬁrst-market rapid growth and early expansion to other markets with high initial failure rates,even in the presence of high irreversible entry costs.Our model highlights a distinction that is often overlooked in empirical analyses of exporting ﬁrms,namely whether a market is theﬁrm’sﬁrst foreign market or ingﬁrm-level data 1For example,Das et al.(2007)structurally estimate sunk entry costs for Colombian manufacturers of leather products,knitted fabrics,and basic chemicals to be at least$344,000in1986U.S.dollars.Morales et al.(2010)use a diﬀerent approach butﬁnd similarly large magnitudes for chemical manufacturers from Chile.1on all Argentine manufacturing exports between2002and2007,weﬁnd strong evidence that this diﬀerence is crucial.Whileﬁrms behave diﬀerently in any market after having acquired some expe-rience there,this diﬀerence is much more pronounced in aﬁrm’sﬁrst foreign market.Speciﬁcally, conditional on remaining an exporter,growth upon entry at both the intensive margin(the sales in the market)and the extensive margin(the number of markets served)is signiﬁcantly higher in aﬁrm’sﬁrst foreign market than in its subsequent markets.The same is true for exit:aﬁrm is more likely to exit from a foreign market right after entering it if that market is theﬁrm’sﬁrst. These results are not driven byﬁrm heterogeneity,by country-speciﬁc shocks,by the possibility of credit constraints,or by learning from rivals.Hence,while uncertainty correlated across time and markets is but one possible force shapingﬁrms’export strategies,our evidence indicates that it plays an unequivocal role.For brevity,we refer to the implications of this uncertainty for exporting ﬁrms simply as“sequential exporting.”Our model also implies that the diﬀerential eﬀect of theﬁrst market should not apply universally to all exporters.For example,if theﬁrm is re-starting to export after a break,there would no longer be a fundamental uncertainty to be uncovered.Similarly,if aﬁrm starts exporting by serving multiple markets,it must be because it is rather conﬁdent about its export success,so on average the role of self-discovery should not be as pronounced for suchﬁrms as it is for single-market entrants.The uncertainty about export proﬁtability should also be less marked for producers of homogeneous goods,for which reference prices are available.Thus,our mechanism suggests that we should observe rapidﬁrst-market export growth,early entry in additional markets and frequent earlyﬁrst-market exit primarily amongﬁrst-time,single-market exporters of diﬀerentiated products.This is indeed what weﬁnd empirically.We sought inspiration for the basic premise of our model in insights from the international business literature,including recentﬁndings on Argentine exporters by Artopoulos,Friel and Hallak (2011).A long tradition in that literature,starting with Johanson and Vahlne(1977),emphasizes the distinct knowledge and competencies–typically related to product adaptation,marketing and distribution–that are required for export success.Aﬁrm can properly infer and develop its own “internationalization knowledge,”however,only once it starts its foreign operations.Artopoulos, Friel and Hallak(2011)document the importance of this export-speciﬁc knowledge with detailed case study analyses ofﬁrms from four emerging export sectors in Argentina.Importantly,such export capabilities can be used when accessing diﬀerent foreign destinations.A similar reasoning applies toﬁrm-speciﬁc demand characteristics.For example,trade facilitation agencies place a heavy emphasis on the importance of uncovering foreign demand for would-be exporters,and their advice indicates that the key uncertainty is about persistent demand components,2some of which can be present also in diﬀerent countries.We interpret these observations as suggestive of 2See for example the discussion of SITPRO,the British trade facilitation agency,at . See also Kee and Krishna(2008),who argue that market-,but alsoﬁrm-speciﬁc demand shocks can help reconcile the predictions of heterogeneousﬁrms models with detailed micro evidence.Demidova et al.(2009)conﬁrm this when studying how variations in American and European trade policies vis-à-vis Bangladeshi apparel products aﬀect ﬁrms’choices of export destinations.2signiﬁcantﬁrm-speciﬁc export proﬁt uncertainty,which can be resolved only by actual engagement in exporting,but which is informative of aﬁrm’s general ability to earn proﬁts in foreign markets. Notice thatﬁrm level dynamics matter also for aggregates:although new exporters typically start small,they tend to account for a large part of export growth over longer periods(about50%over ten years in the Colombian sample of Eaton et al.2008,for example).The recent documentation of the pattern ofﬁrms’foreign sales3has been fostering a still incipi-ent(see Redding2011)but growing research interest on the dynamics ofﬁrms’exporting strategies.4 The current work of Eaton et al.(2010)and Freund and Pierola(2010),who emphasize learning mechanisms,are particularly close to ours.The former develop a model where producers learn about the appeal of their products in a market by devoting resources toﬁnding consumers and by observing the experiences of competitors.Freund and Pierola also consider a single export market, but with product-speciﬁc uncertainty,as their focus is on the incentives ofﬁrms to develop new products for ing data on exports of non-traditional agricultural products in Peru, Freund and Pierola uncover interesting patterns of trial and error based on the frequency of entry and exit from foreign markets.In those models,uncertainty is destination-speciﬁc and the main goal is to describeﬁrms’export dynamics within a market,without distinction betweenﬁrst and subsequent markets.Here,in contrast,we take a multi-market approach.A central feature of our environment concernsﬁrms’diﬀerent dynamics in theirﬁrst and subsequent foreign markets,and we emphasize the option value of aﬁrm’sﬁrst export experience.5In a recent related paper,Morales et al.(2011)use a novel moment inequalities approach to estimate a trade model that also generates sequential entry in foreign markets.Theyﬁnd that export experience in a market facilitates entry in other,similar(geographically or economically)destinations.Those“extended gravity”forces imply that the entry pattern of exportingﬁrms is path-dependent.Although the focus of Morales et al.is on how sunk costs decrease with export experience,their results are consistent with,and complementary to,our notion of proﬁt uncertainty revealed through exporting.Our work is also related to other recent empiricalﬁndings at the product and country levels.3Buono et al.(2008)conﬁrm some of theﬁndings of Eaton et al.(2008)in a study of Frenchﬁwless(2009) carries out a related exercise for a survey of Irish exporters.4Segura-Cayuela and Vilarrubia(2008)develop a model where potential exporters are uncertain about country-speciﬁcﬁxed export costs,but learn about them from otherﬁrms in the industry that start exporting to the same market.This idea is related to Hausmann and Rodrik’s(2003)earlier insight that ex ante unknown export opportu-nities can be gauged from the experience of export pioneers,who eﬀectively provide a public good to the rest of the industry.While those authors focus on learning from rivals,we are interested in individual self-discovery.Our work is also related to dynamic export models with idiosyncratic uncertainty.Das et al.(2007)develop an heterogeneous ﬁrm model whereﬁrm proﬁtability evolves over time according to an exogenous stochastic process determining the ﬁrm’s entry,exit and production decisions abroad.Arkolakis(2011)proposes a dynamic model with endogenous entry costs that increase with the number of foreign consumers targeted.Eaton et al.(2011)integrate Arkolakis’entry cost structure in a model with diﬀerent types ofﬁrm-speciﬁc shocks.The model,which is static(and therefore does not incorporate learning),is set up for studying the role of diﬀerent types of shocks in determining the geographical pattern of French exports at theﬁrm level.5In recent independent research,Nguyen(2011)develops a related model based on the idea that aﬁrm’s foreign demands are uncertain and correlated across markets.Chaney(2011),by contrast,proposes a model of international network formation whereﬁrms obtain information about new potential partners from their current trading partners. The network formation game yields an equilibrium whereﬁrms’export destinations are path-dependent,a result that we also obtain but through a very diﬀerent mechanism.3Evenett and Venables(2002)document a“geographic spread of exports”for23developing countries between1970and1997,in the sense that importing a product from a certain country is more likely if the origin country is supplying the same product to nearby markets.Besedes and Prusa(2006)ﬁnd that the median duration of exporting a product to the United States is very short,with a hazard rate that decreases sharply over time.Iacovone and Javorcik(2009)ﬁnd thatﬁrms often undertake signiﬁcant investment before entering foreign markets,as a preparation for exporting.Alvarez et al.(2011)ﬁnd evidence from Chileanﬁrms that exporting a product to a country increases the likelihood of selling the same product to another foreign market.Bernard et al.(2009)show that the extensive margins of US exports are key to explain variation at long intervals,but that the intensive margin is responsible for most short-run(i.e.year-to-year)variation.These diﬀerent contributions of the two margins over time reﬂect the fact that new exporters start small,but grow fast and expand rapidly across destinations if they survive.Our model helps to rationalize these ﬁndings as well.The remainder of the paper is organized as follows.In Section2we present our model.In Section3we use Argentine customs data to test the distinguishing features of our theoretical mechanism.We conclude in Section4.2ModelWe propose a model whose central assumption is the existence of a fundamental source of un-certainty regardingﬁrms’general ability to earn proﬁts abroad,and which can be resolved only through experience in foreign markets.A direct implication of our central assumption is that aﬁrm’s export proﬁtability should be correlated over time and across destinations.Correlation over time can come from persistent but ex ante unknown demand patterns,e.g.related to the appeal of certain product features.It could also represent idiosyncratic but ex ante unknown export costs that are stable over time.For example, shipping and other port activities,distribution of goods in foreign markets,exportﬁnance and insurance,maintenance of an international division within theﬁrm–all those activities involve relatively stable idiosyncratic costs that are often unknown to theﬁrm until it actually engages in exporting.In turn,positive correlation across countries in export proﬁtability can come from similarities in either demand or supply conditions.The patterns uncovered by gravity equations–which show that bilateral trade correlates strongly with indicators for common language,religion, colonial origin etc.–partly involve demand similarities across countries.Likewise,some of the costs intrinsic to exporting,like those mentioned above,while ex ante unknown for aﬁrm,are often similar across countries.This is consistent with evidence from international business studies.Those studies stress the diﬀerent activities(and costs)that exporting requires.On the one hand,new exporters need to learn about local consumer preferences,business practices and institutional environments.On the other hand,they need to learn about how to establish appropriate routines andﬁne-tune the allo-4cation of resources to export activities.For example,in a review of international marketing studies, Cavusgil and Zou(1994)list product adaptation,distributor support and commitment of manage-rial resources to exports as key competencies required for a successful export strategy.Similarly, in a study of several Argentine exporters during the2000’s,Artopoulos,Friel and Hallak(2011)ﬁnd that export success entails substantial changes in product design,production and marketing capabilities.Crucially,they alsoﬁnd that many new exporters were unaware of those changes prior to exporting,presumably because of the tacit nature of that information.Successful exporters are therefore those who are able to develop eﬀective export-speciﬁc processes and routines,which Eriksson et al.(1997)refer to as aﬁrm’s“internationalization knowledge.”Such knowledge,which is obtained through export experience,aﬀects aﬁrm’s perceived ability to enter new foreign markets successfully,as they shape their capacity to acquire knowledge of institutions and business practices in new markets.The need for new knowledge and competencies makes export success uncertain at the time of entry,but also implies that the uncertainty is resolved through export experience.The tacit nature of knowledge implies that there are no obvious substitutes for that experience.Naturally,we do not suggest thatﬁrms do not face any producer-market speciﬁc uncertainty, or that all uncertainty requires actual engagement in exporting to be resolved.Producers surely acquire formal knowledge and observe other exporters prior to their foreign entry decision.We focus on the residual uncertainty because it has not been explored yet in this context,but has potentially large and important implications.2.1Basic structureA risk-neutral producer has the option of serving two segmented foreign markets,A and B.Coun-tries A andB are symmetric except for the unit trade costs that the Homeﬁrm must pay to export there,denoted byτA andτB,τA≤τB.To sell in each foreign market,theﬁrm needs to incur in a one-timeﬁxed cost per destination,F≥0.This corresponds to the costs of establishing distribution channels,of designing a marketing strategy,of learning about exporting procedures, of familiarization with the institutional and policy characteristics of the foreign country,etc.Variable costs comprise two elements:an unknown export unit cost,c j,and a unit production cost that is known to theﬁrm.We normalize the latter to zero.In the Online Appendix we show that allowing for diﬀerences in productivity has no qualitative consequence for our main mechanism. The producer faces the following demand in each market j=A,B:q j(p j)=d j−p j,(1) where q j denotes the output sold in destination j,p j denotes the corresponding price,and d j is an unknown parameter.We therefore allow for uncertainty in both demand and supply parameters.Letμj≡d j−c j5be a random variable with a continuous cumulative distribution function G(·)on the support[μ,μ]. We refer toμj as theﬁrm’s“export proﬁtability”in market j.μobtains when the highest possible demand intercept(d)and the lowest possible export unit cost(c)are realized;μobtains under the opposite extreme scenario(d j=d and c j=c).The analysis becomes interesting when trade costs are such that,upon the resolution of the uncertainty,it may become optimal to serve both, only one,or none of the markets.Accordingly,we assumeμ<τA–so that exporting may not be worthwhile even if F=0–and2F1/2+τB<μ.This last condition implies that exporting to the distant market can be proﬁtable.To ensure that equilibrium prices are always strictly positive,weEμ.6need that Eμ<2d j for all d j,so we assume throughout the paper that d>12Our central assumption is that export proﬁtability is correlated over time and across markets. This correlation could come from either supply or demand components of uncertainty in the para-meterμ,as suggested by our discussion above.To make the analysis as clear and simple as possible, we focus on the limiting case.First,as the deﬁnition ofμj without time subscripts indicates,we consider that theμj’s are constant over time.Second,we look at the case where the draws ofμj are perfectly correlated across markets:μA=μB=μ.Each of these assumptions can be relaxed; all of our qualitative results generalize to any strictly positive correlation of export proﬁtabilities across markets and over time.7To model the decision to enter foreign markets,we evaluate all proﬁts from an ex ante perspec-tive,i.e.at their t=0expected value.For simplicity,we assume thatﬁrms do not discount future payoﬀs,but we note that this has no bearing on our qualitative results.We denote by e j t theﬁrm’s decision to enter market j at time t,j=A,B,t=1,2.Thus,e j t=1if theﬁrm enters market j (i.e.pays the sunk cost)at t,e j t=0otherwise.Output q j t can be strictly positive only if either e j t=1or e j t−1=1.The timing is as follows:t=1:At period1,theﬁrm decides whether to enter each market.If theﬁrm decides to enter market j,it pays the per-destinationﬁxed entry cost F and chooses how much to sell there in that period,q j1.At the end of period1,export proﬁts in destination j are realized.If theﬁrm has entered and produced q j1≥ε,whereε>0is arbitrarily small,it infersμfrom its proﬁt.t=2:At period2,if theﬁrm has entered market j at t=1,it decides whether to keep serving on that market given the realization of export proﬁts.If so,it chooses how much to sell in that market,q j2.If theﬁrm has not entered destination j at t=1,it decides whether to enter that market.If theﬁrm enters,it pays F and chooses q j2.At the end of period2,export proﬁts are realized.Hence,theﬁrm can infer its export proﬁtability parameterμonly by actually engaging in exporting,which requires theﬁrm to pay theﬁxed entry cost F and sell a strictly positive quantity 6Identical results obtain if one adopts instead a demand function of the form q j(p j)=max d j−p j,0 ,as we show in /staﬀ/calvo/documents/acco_TechnicalAppendix.pdf 7We show this for the case where theμj’s are positively but imperfectly correlated in /staﬀ/calvo/documents/acco_TechnicalAppendix.pdf6to one of the markets.This is reminiscent of Jovanovic’s(1982)model,although a central diﬀerence is that we consider entry into several destinations.Clearly,uncoveringμmust be costly,or else everyﬁrm would,counterfactually,export at least a tiny quantity to gather their export potential. We model this cost as a sunk cost,but this is not necessary for our results.Alternatively,one could specify that aﬁrm needs a minimum scale of experimentation to reliably uncover its true export proﬁtability.We allow this minimum scale to be an arbitrarily small number(ε)because we require theﬁrm to spend F to sell in a foreign market,but one could for example assume the opposite(i.e. set F=0and require a larger minimum scale).8In reality,entry may also be“passive,”where a foreign buyer posts an order and the exporting ﬁrm simply delivers it.Trade in intermediate goods,for example,is indeed often importer-driven, rather than exporter-driven.Thus,in generalﬁrms may either deliberately choose to enter a market,or simply wait until they are“found”by a foreign buyer.While our model focuses on the former type of entry,a passiveﬁrst export experience could also resolve uncertainty and lead to active expansion on foreign markets.Our empiricalﬁndings certainly involve both types ofﬁrst export experiences.2.2Firm’s export decisionThere are three undominated entry strategies.Theﬁrm may enter both markets simultaneously at t=1(“simultaneous entry”);enter only market A at t=1,deciding at t=2whether to enter market B(“sequential entry”);or enter neither market.The other two possibilities,of entering both markets only at t=2and of entering market B before market A,need not be considered. The latter is dominated by entering market A before market B,sinceτA≤τB.The former is dominated by simultaneous entry at t=1,since by postponing entry the producer is faced withthe same problem as in t=1,but is left with a shorter horizon to recoup identicalﬁxed entry costs. We solve for theﬁrm’s decision variables{e j1,e j2,q j1,q j2}using backward induction.We denote optimal quantities in period t under simultaneous entry by b q j t,and under sequential entry by e q j t.2.2.1Period t=2i)No entry.Theﬁrm does not export,earning zero proﬁt.ii)Simultaneous entry.When theﬁrm exports to both destinations at t=1,at t=2it will have inferred its export proﬁtabilityμand will choose its export volumes by solvingn(μ−τj−q j2)q j2o,j=A,B.maxq j2≥08More general forms of experimentation are compatible with our main mechanism.For example,Akhmetova and Mitaritonna(2010)develop a model of entry in foreign markets where demand uncertainty takes time to be unveiled, as in Aghion et al.(1991).As a result,producers also need to decide their levels of experimentation.7This yieldsb q j 2(τj )=1{μ>τj }µμ−τj2¶,(2)where 1{.}represents the indicator function,here denoting whether μ>τj .Second-period output is zero for low μ.Pro ﬁts at t =2,expressed in t =0expected terms,can then be written asV (τj )=Z μτj µμ−τj ¶2dG (μ),j =A,B .V (τj )is the value of continuing to export to market j after pro ﬁtability in foreign markets has been discovered.If the ﬁrm cannot deliver positive pro ﬁts in a market,it exits to avoid further losses.Otherwise,the ﬁrm tunes up its output choice to that market.iii)Sequential entry .When the ﬁrm exports to country A in t =1,at t =2it will have inferred its export pro ﬁtability μ.Thus,q A 2is again given by (2):e q A 2(τA )=b q A 2(τA )=1{μ>τA }³μ−τA 2´,generating second-period pro ﬁt V (τA ).Otherwise,if the ﬁrm cannot deliver positive pro ﬁts in a market it exits market A to avoid further losses.The ﬁrm chooses to enter market B at t =2if the operational pro ﬁt is greater than the sunk cost to enter that market.This will be the case when the ﬁrm realizes its export pro ﬁtability is large relative to the sunk cost:µμ−τB2¶2≥F .(3)Hence,the ﬁrm’s entry decision in market B at t =2ise B 2(τB )=1⇔μ≥2F 1/2+τB .(4)Thus,de ﬁning F B 2(τB )as the F that solves (3)with equality,the ﬁrm enters market B at t =2if F ≤F B 2(τB ).It is straightforward to see that F B 2(τB )is strictly decreasing in τB .If the ﬁrm enters market B ,it will choose q B 2much like it chooses q A 2,adjusted for market B ’s speci ﬁc trade cost,τB .However,conditional on e B 2=1,we know that μ>τB .Therefore,the ﬁrmsets e q B 2(τB )=μ−τB 2.Expressed in t =0expected terms,the ﬁrm’s pro ﬁt from (possibly)entering market B at t =2corresponds toW (τB ;F )≡Z μ2F 1/2+τB "µμ−τB ¶2−F #dG (μ)=(V (τB )−Z 2F 1/2+τB τB µμ−τB¶2dG (μ))−F h 1−G (2F 1/2+τB )i .Function W (τB ;F )represents the value of exporting to market B after learning its pro ﬁtability in foreign markets by entering market A ﬁrst.The expression in curly brackets represents the (ex ante)expected gross pro ﬁt from entering market B at t =2.The other term represents the ﬁxed8。

Ination Targets and Debt Accumulation in a Monetary Union ¤

In‡ation T argets and Debt Accumulation in aMonetary Union¤Roel BeetsmaUniversity of Amsterdam and CEPR yns BovenbergTilburg University and CEPR zOctober1999AbstractThis paper explores the interaction between centralized monetary policyand decentralized…scal policy in a monetary union.Discretionary mone-tary policy su¤ers from a failure to commit.Moreover,decentralized…scalpolicymakers impose externalities on each other through the in‡uence oftheir debt policies on the common monetary policy.These imperfectionscan be alleviated by adopting state-contingent in‡ation targets(to com-bat the monetary policy commitment problem)and shock-contingent debttargets(to internalize the externalities due to decentralized…scal policy).Keywords:discretionary monetary policy,decentralized…scal policy, monetary union,in‡ation targets,debt targets.JEL Codes:E52,E58,E61,E62.¤We thank David Vestin and the participants of the EPRU Workshop“Structural Change and European Economic Integration”for helpful comments on an earlier version of this paper. The usual disclaimer applies.y Mailing address Roel Beetsma:Department of Economics,University of Amsterdam, Roetersstraat11,1018WB Amsterdam,The Netherlands(phone:+31.20.5255280;fax: +31.20.5254254;e-mail:Beetsma@fee.uva.nl).z Mailing address Lans Bovenberg:Department of Economics,Tilburg University,P.O.Box 90153,5000LE Tilburg,The Netherlands(phone:+31.13.4662912;fax:+31.13.4663042;e-mail: A.L.Bovenberg@kub.nl).1.IntroductionAlthough the Maatricht Treaty has laid the institutional foundations for European Monetary Union(EMU),how these institutions can best be operated in practice remains to be seen in the coming years.For example,the European Central Bank (ECB)has announced a two-tier monetary policy strategy based on a reference value for money growth and an indicator that is based on a number of other measures,such as output gaps,in‡ation expectations,etcetera(see European Central Bank,1999).Over time the ECB may well shift to implicit targeting of in‡ation.Indeed,a number of economists has argued(e.g,see Svensson,1998) that also the Bundesbank has pursued such a strategy.Furthermore,how the Excessive De…cit Procedure and the Stability and Growth Pact(see Beetsma and Uhlig,1999)will work in practice is not yet clear.This paper deals with the interaction between in‡ation targets and constraints on decentralized…scal policy in a monetary union.To do so,we extend our earlier work on the interaction between a common monetary policy and decentralized …scal policies in a monetary union.In particular,in Beetsma and Bovenberg (1999)we showed that monetary uni…cation raises debt accumulation,because in a monetary union countries only partly internalize the e¤ects of their debt policies on future monetary policy.This additional debt accumulation is actually welfare enhancing(if the governments share societal preferences).We showed that,in the absence of shocks,making the central bank su¢ciently conservative(in the sense of Rogo¤,1985,that is by imposing on the central bank a loss function that attaches a su¢ciently high weight to price stability)can lead the economy to the second-best equilibrium.However,this is no longer the case in the presence of common shocks,as the economies are confronted with a trade o¤between credibility and‡exibility.While Beetsma and Bovenberg(1999)emphasized the e¤ects of lack of com-mitment in monetary policy,this paper introduces another complication in the form of strategic interactions between decentralized…scal policymakers who have di¤erent views on the stance of the common monetary policy.1These di¤erent views originate in di¤erences among the economies in the monetary union.In particular,we allow for systematic di¤erences in labour and product market dis-tortions,public spending requirements and initial public debt levels.We also allow for idiosyncratic stochastic shocks hitting the countries.In combination with the decentralization of…scal policy these di¤erences lead to con‡icts about the preferred future stance of the common monetary policy.In particular,coun-tries that su¤er from severe distortions in labor and commodity markets,feature 1Our earlier model incorporated another potential distortion:the possibility that govern-ments discount the future at a higher rate than their societies do.We ignore this distortion throughout the current paper.2higher public spending or initial debt levels or are hit by worse shocks prefer a laxer future stance of monetary policy.These con‡icts about monetary policy induce individual governments to employ their debt policy strategically,so as to induce the union’s central bank to move monetary policy into the direction they prefer.This strategic behavior imposes negative externalities on other countries, thereby producing welfare losses.In contrast to Beetsma and Bovenberg(1999),we do not address the distor-tions in the model by making the common central bank su¢ciently conservative. Instead,we focus on state-contingent in‡ation targets which,in contrast to a con-servative central bank,can lead the economy to the second-best equilibrium if countries are identical.Hence,as stressed by Svensson(1997)in a model with-out…scal policy and debt accumulation,in‡ation targets eliminate the standard credibility-‡exibility trade-o¤.If…scal policy is decentralized to heterogeneous countries,however,the optimal state-contingent in‡ation targets need to be com-plemented by(country-speci…c)debt targets to establish the second best.In this way,in‡ation targets address the lack of commitment in monetary policy,while debt targets eliminate strategic interaction among heterogeneous governments with di¤erent views about the common monetary policy stance.The remainder of this paper is structured as follows.Section2presents the model.Section3discusses the second-best equilibrium in which not only monetary but also…scal policy is centralized and in which monetary policy is conducted under commitment.This is the second-best optimum that can be attained under monetary uni…cation,assuming that the supranational authorities attach an equal weight to the preferences of each of the participating countries.Section4derives the equilibrium for the case of a common,discretionary monetary policy with decentralized…scal policies.Section5explores institutional arrangements(i.e. in‡ation targets and public debt targets)that may alleviate the welfare losses arising from the lack of monetary policy commitment and the wasteful strategic interaction among the decentralized governments.Finally,Section6concludes the main body of this paper.The derivations are contained in the appendix.2.The modelA monetary union,which is small relative to the rest of the world,is formed by n countries.2A common central bank(CCB)sets monetary policy for the entire union,while…scal policy is determined at a decentralized,national level by the n governments.There are two periods.2Monetary uni…cation is taken as given.Hence,we do not explore the incentives of countries to join a monetary union.3Workers are represented by trade unions who aim for some target real wage rate(e.g.see Alesina and Tabellini,1987,and Jensen,1994).They set nominal wages so as to minimize the expected squared deviation of the realized real wage rate from this target.Monetary policy(i.e.,the in‡ation rate)is selected after nominal wages have been…xed.In each country,…rms face a standard production function with decreasing returns to scale in labour.Output in period t is taxed at a rate¿it.Therefore,output in country i in periods1and2,respectively,is given by3x i1=º(¼1¡¼e1¡¿i1)¡¹¡²i;(2.1)x i2=º(¼2¡¼e2¡¿i2);(2.2) where¹represents a common union-wide shock,while²i stands for an idiosyn-cratic shock that solely hits country i.¼et denotes the in‡ation rate for period texpected at the start of period t(that is,before period t shocks have materialized, but after period t¡1;t¡2;::shocks have hit).We assume that E[²i]=0;8i; E[¹]=0;E[²i²j]=0;8j=i;and that¹²´1P n i=1²i=0.4The variances of¹and ²i are given by¾2¹and¾2²,respectively.We abstract from shocks in the secondperiod,because they would not a¤ect debt accumulation.Each country features a social welfare function which is shared by the govern-ment of that country.Hence,governments are benevolent.In particular,the loss function of government i is de…ned over in‡ation,output and public spending:V S;i=12X t=1¯t¡1h®¼¼2t+(x it¡~x it)2+®g(g it¡~g it)2i;0<¯ 1;®¼;®g>0:(2.3)Welfare losses increase in the deviations of in‡ation,(log)output and government spending(g it is government spending as a share of output in the absence of distor-tions)from their targets(or…rst-best levels or“bliss points”).For convenience, the target level for in‡ation corresponds to price stability.The target level for output is denoted by~x it>0.Two distortions reduce output below this optimal level.First,the output tax¿it drives a wedge between the social and private bene…ts of additional output.Second,market power enables unions to drive the real wage above its level in the absence of distortions.Hence,even in the ab-sence of taxes,output is below the…rst-best output level~x it>0.The…rst-best 3Details on the derivations of these output equations can be found in Beetsma and Bovenberg (1999).4Without this assumption,the mean¹²of the²’s would play the same role as¹does.In the outcomes given below,¹would then be replaced by^¹´¹+¹².For convenience,we assume that ¹²=0.4level of government spending,~g it,can be interpreted as the optimal share of non-distortionary output to be spent on public goods if(non-distortionary)lump-sum taxes would be available(see Debelle and Fischer,1994).The target levels for output and government spending can di¤er across countries.Parameters®¼and ®g correspond to the weights of the price stability and government spending ob-jectives,respectively,relative to the weight of the output objective.Finally,¯denotes society’s subjective discount factor.Government i’s budget constraint can be approximated by(e.g.,see Appendix A in Beetsma and Bovenberg,1999):g it+(1+½)d i;t¡1=¿it+Â¼t+d it;(2.4) where d i;t¡1represents the amount of public debt carried over from the previous period into period t,while d it stands for the amount of debt outstanding at the end of period t.All public debt is real,matures after one period,and is sold on the world capital market against a real rate of interest of½.This interest rate is exogenous because the countries making up the monetary union are small relative to the rest of the world.5¿it andÂ(a constant)stand for,respectively,distor-tionary tax revenue and real holdings of base money as shares of non-distortionary output.All countries share equally in the seigniorage revenues of the CCB,so that the seigniorage revenues accruing to country i amount toÂ¼t.We combine(2.4)with the expression for output,(2.1)or(2.2),to eliminate ¿it.The resulting equation can be rewritten to yield the government…nancing requirement of period t:GF R it=~K it+(1+½)d i;t¡1¡d it+±t(¹+²i)=º=[(~x it¡x it)=º]+Â¼t+(~g it¡g it)+(¼t¡¼e t);(2.5) where±t is an indicator function,such that±1=1and±2=0,and where~Kit´~g it+~x it=º.The government…nancing requirement,GF R it,consists of three components.The …rst component,~K it,amounts to the government spending target,~g it,and an out-put subsidy aimed at o¤setting the implicit output tax due to labor-or product-market distortions,~x it=º.The second component involves net debt-servicing costs, 5In the following,we will occasionally explore what happens when the number of union participants becomes in…nitely large(i.e.n!1)in order to strengthen the intuition behind our results.In these exercises the real interest rate remains beyond the control of union-level policymakers.5(1+½)d i;t¡1¡d it.The…nal component(in period1only)is the stochastic shock (scaled byº),(¹+²i)=º.The last right-hand side of(2.5)represents the sources of…nance:the shortfall(scaled byº)of output from its target(henceforth re-ferred to as the output gap),(~x it¡x it)=º,seigniorage revenues,Â¼t,the shortfall of government spending from its target(henceforth referred to as the spending gap),~g it¡g it,and the in‡ation surprise,¼t¡¼e t.All public debt is paid o¤at the end of the second period(d i2=0;i= 1;::;n).Under this assumption,while taking the discounted(to period one)sums of the left-and right-hand sides of(2.5)(t=1;2),we obtain the intertemporal government…nancing requirement:IGF R i=~F i+(¹+²i)=º=2X t=1(1+½)¡(t¡1)[(~x it¡x it)=º+Â¼t+(~g it¡g it)+(¼t¡¼e t)];(2.6)where~F i´~K i1+(1+½)d i0+~K i2=(1+½)stands for the deterministic component of the intertemporal government…nancing requirement.Monetary policy is delegated to a common central banker(CCB),who has direct control over the union’s in‡ation rate.One could assume that the CCB has certain intrinsic preferences regarding the policy outcomes.Alternatively,and this is the interpretation we prefer,one could assume that the CCB is assigned a loss function by means of an appropriate contractual agreement.More speci…cally,this agreement shapes the CCB’s incentives in such a way(by appropriately specifying its salary and other bene…ts–for example,possible reappointment–conditional on its performance)that it chooses to maximize the following loss function:V CCB=12X t=1¯t¡1(®¼(¼t¡¼¤t)2+1n X i=1h(x it¡~x it)2+®g(g it¡~g it)2i);(2.7)where¼¤t is the in‡ation target in period t,which may be di¤erent from the socially-optimal in‡ation rate,which was set at zero.If¼¤1=¼¤2=0,the CCB’s objective function corresponds to an equally-weighted average of the individual societies’objective functions.We assume that ¼¤2is a linear function of d i1;i=1;::;n.This linearity assumption su¢ces for our purposes:we will see later on that the optimal second-period in‡ation target is indeed a linear function of d i1;i=1;::;n.The optimal…rst-period in‡ation target will be a function of d i0,which is exogenous.63.The second-best equilibriumAs a benchmark for the remainder of the analysis,we discuss the equilibrium resulting from centralized…scal and monetary policies under commitment.Mon-etary policy is set by the CCB.Fiscal policy is conducted by a centralized…scal authority,which minimizes:V U´1n X i=1V S;i;(3.1)where the V S;i are given by(2.3),i=1;::;n.Equation(3.1)assumes that coun-tries have equal bargaining power as regards to the…scal policy decisions taken at the union ernment spending is residually determined,so that the CCB,when it selects monetary policy,internalizes the government budget con-straints.The resulting equilibrium is Pareto optimal.In the sequel,we refer to this equilibrium as the second-best equilibrium.In the absence of…rst-best policies (such as the use of lump-sum taxation and the elimination of product-and labor-market distortions),it is the equilibrium with the smallest possible welfare loss (3.1),given monetary uni…cation.The derivation of the second-best equilibrium is contained in Appendix A.3.1.In‡ation,the output gap and the public spending gapTable1contains the outcomes for in‡ation,the output gap,6~x it¡x it,and the spending gap,~g it¡g it.We write each of these outcomes as the sum of two deterministic and two stochastic components.~F¢i is the deviation of country i’s deterministic component of its intertemporal government…nancing requirement from the cross-country average,de…ned by~F.Formally,~F´1n P n j=1~F j and ~F¢i´~F i¡~F.The factor between square brackets in each of the entries of Table1 makes clear how,within a given period,the government…nancing requirement is distributed over the…nancing sources(seigniorage,the output gap,the spending gap and an in‡ation surprise).Indeed,for each period these factors add up to unity,both across the deterministic and across the stochastic components.For example,for the…rst period one has:6Throughout,we present the outcome for the output gap instead of the outcome for the tax rate.The reason is that,in contrast to the latter,the former directly enters the welfare loss functions.7[(~x i1¡x i1)=º]+Â¼1+(~g i1¡g i1)+(¼1¡¼e1)=h¯¤(1+½)1+¯¤(1+½)i³~F+~F¢i´+h¯¤(1+½)(P¤=P)1+¯¤(1+½)(P=P)i³¹º+²iº´=~K i1+(1+½)d i0¡d S i1+(¹+²i)=º;(3.2)where d Si1is the second-best debt level.The last equality can be checked bysubstituting(3.4)-(3.7)into(3.3)(all given below)and substituting the resulting expression into the last line of(3.2).For each of the outcomes,the terms that follow the factor in square brackets regulate the inter temporal allocation of the intertemporal government…nancing requirement.The coe¢cients of the common stochastic shock¹º(in the fourth column ofTable1,°2)di¤er in two ways from the coe¢cients of the common determinis-tic component of the intertemporal government…nancing requirement~F(in thesecond column of Table1,°0).The…rst di¤erence is with respect to the…rst-period,intra temporal,allocation of the government…nancing requirement overthe…nancing sources.The deterministic components of the government…nancing requirement are anticipated and thus correctly incorporated in expected in‡a-tion.The common shock,in contrast,is unanticipated and,hence,not taken intoaccount when in‡ation expectations are formed.The predetermination of the in-‡ation expectation is exploited by the central policymakers so as to…nance part ofthis common shock through an in‡ation surprise.Indeed,whereas the coe¢cientof¼1¡¼e1is zero in the second column in Table1,this coe¢cient is positive in the fourth column,indicating that part of the common shock is…nanced throughan in‡ation surprise in the…rst period.With surprise in‡ation absorbing part ofthe common shock,the output gap and the spending gap have to absorb a smallershare of this shock.In the second period,the allocation over the…nancing sources for the stochastic component¹is the same as for the deterministic component~F.The reason is that the…rst-period shock¹has materialized before second-period in‡ation expectations are formed.The e¤ect of¹on the second-period outcomes will thus be perfectly anticipated.Indeed,the share of¹that is transmitted into the second period through debt policy becomes part of the deterministic component of the second-period government…nancing requirement(when viewed from the start of the second period).The second way in which the coe¢cient of the stochastic shock¹di¤ers from the coe¢cient of~F,involves the inter temporal allocation of the government…-nancing requirement.In particular,the share of¹absorbed in the…rst period (relative to the second period)is larger than that of~F(¯¤(P¤=P)c1>¯¤c0and c1<c0,where c0and c1are de…ned in Table1).The reason is again that…rst-8period in‡ation expectations are predetermined when the stochastic shock hits. This enables the policymakers to absorb a relatively large share of the stochastic shock in the…rst period through an in‡ation surprise.The responses of the output and government spending gaps to~F¢i and²i di¤er from the responses to~F and¹.Since in‡ation is attuned to cross-country averages,it cannot respond to country-speci…c circumstances as captured by~F¢i and²i.Accordingly,taxes(the output gap)and the government spending gap have to fully absorb these country-speci…c components of the government…nancing requirements.3.2.Public debt policyThe solution for debt accumulation in the second-best equilibrium can be written as:d S i1=¹d e;S1+d¢;e;Si1+¹d d;S1+d±;S i1;(3.3) where¹d e;S 1=h~K1+(1+½)¹d0¡~K2i+(1¡¯¤)~K2¤;(3.4)d¢;e;S i1=h~K¢i1+(1+½)d¢i0¡~K¢i2i+(1¡¯¤)~K¢i2¤;n>1;(3.5) =0;n=1;¹d d;S 1="11+¯¤(1+½)(P¤=P)#¹º;(3.6)d±;S i1="11+¯¤(1+½)#²iº;n>1;(3.7) =0;n=1;where the superscript“S”stands for“second-best equilibrium”,the superscript “e”denotes the expectation of a variable,an upperbar above a variable indicates its cross-country average(except for variables carrying a tilde,like~K1,where the cross-country average is indicated by dropping the country-index),a super-script“¢”denotes an idiosyncratic deviation of a deterministic variable from its cross-country average(for example,~K¢i1´~K i1¡~K1),a superscript“d”denotes9the response to a common shock,a superscript“±”indicates the response to an idiosyncratic shock,and where¯¤´¯(1+½);(3.8)P´Â2=®¼+1=º2+1=®g;P¤´(Â+1)2=®¼+1=º2+1=®g:Hence,optimal debt accumulation(3.3)is the sum of two deterministic compo-nents and two stochastic components.The component¹d e;S1optimally distributes over time the absorption of the cross-country averages of the deterministic compo-nents of the government…nancing requirements.Therefore,it is common acrosscountries.The country-speci…c components d¢;e;Si1intertemporally distribute theidiosyncratic deterministic components of the government…nancing requirements. The common(across countries)component¹d d;S1represents the optimal debt re-sponse to the common shock¹,while d±;S i1stands for the optimal debt response to the country-speci…c shock,²i.The debt response to the common shock is less active than the response to the idiosyncratic shock(since P¤=P>1).The common in‡ation rate can exploit the predetermination of in‡ation expectations only in responding to the common shock,because the common in‡ation rate can not be attuned to idiosyncratic shocks.Hence,the share of the common shock that can be absorbed in the…rst period can be larger than the corresponding share of the idiosyncratic shock. Public debt thus needs to respond less vigorously to the common shock.4.Discretionary monetary policy with decentralized…scalpolicyThis section introduces two distortions compared with the second-best equilib-rium explored in the previous section.First,the CCB is no longer able to commit to monetary policy announcements.Second,…scal policy is decentralized to in-dividual governments,which may result in wasteful strategic interaction among heterogeneous governments.From now on,the timing of events in each period is as follows.At the start of the period,the institutional parameters are set.That is,an in‡ation target is imposed on the CCB for the coming period and,if applicable,the debt targets on the individual governments are set.The in‡ation target may be conditioned on the state of the world.In particular,the in‡ation target may depend on the average debt level in the union.7Furthermore,the debt target,which represents 7The optimal in‡ation target can either be optimally reset at the start of each period,or10the amount of public debt that a government has to carry over into the next period,may be shock-contingent.8After the institutional parameters have been set,in‡ation expectations are determined(through the nominal wage-setting pro-cess).Third,the shock(s)materialize.Fourth,taking in‡ation expectations as given,the CCB selects the common in‡ation rate and the…scal authorities simul-taneously select taxes and,in the absence of a debt target,public debt.Each of the players takes the other players’policies at this stage as given.Finally,public spending levels are residually determined.As a result,the CCB internalizes the e¤ect of its policies on the government budget constraints.This section explores the outcomes under pure discretion,i.e.in the absence of both in‡ation targets(i.e.,¼¤1=¼¤2=0)and debt targets.The complete derivation of the equilibrium is contained in Appendix B.The suboptimality of the resulting equilibrium compared to the second best motivates the exploration of in‡ation and debt targets in Section5.4.1.In‡ation,the output gap and the public spending gapTable2contains the solutions for the in‡ation rate,the output gap and the spend-ing gap.The main di¤erence compared to the outcomes under the second-best equilibrium(see Table1)is that,for a given amount of debt d i1to be carried over into the second period,expected…rst-period in‡ation(and,hence,seignior-age ifÂ>0)will be higher(compare the term between the square parenthe-ses in the second column and the second row of Table2with the correspond-ing term in Table1and observe that[Â(Â+1)=®¼]=S>(Â2=®¼)=P,where S´Â(Â+1)=®¼+1=º2+1=®g).The source of the higher expected in‡ation rate under pure discretion is the inability to commit to a stringent monetary policy,which yields the familiar in‡ation bias(Barro and Gordon,1983).The outcomes for in‡ation,the output gap and the spending gap deviate from the outcomes under the second-best equilibrium also because debt accumulation un-der pure discretion di¤ers from debt accumulation under the second best.These di¤erences are discussed below.4.2.Public debt policyGovernment i’s debt can,analogous to(3.3),be written as:d D i1=¹d e;D1+d¢;e;Di1+¹d d;D1+d±;D i1;(4.1)be determined according to a state-contingent rule selected at the beginning of the…rst period. These two alternative interpretations yield equivalent results.8Debt at the end of the second period is restricted to be zero.Hence,the second period features a debt target of zero.11where the superscript“D”is used to indicate the solution of the purely discre-tionary equilibrium with decentralized…scal policies and where¹d e;D 1=h~K1+(1+½)d0¡~K2i+[1¡¯¤(S¤=S)]~K2¤;(4.2)d¢;e;D i1=h~K¢i1+(1+½)d¢i0¡~K¢i2i+[1¡¯¤(Q=S)]~K¢i21+¯¤(1+½)(Q=S);if n>1;(4.3) =0;if n=1;¹d d;D 1="11+¯¤(1+½)(S¤=S)(P¤=S)#¹º;(4.4)d±;D i1="11+¯¤(1+½)(Q=S)#²iº;if n>1;(4.5) =0;if n=1;and whereS´Â(Â+1)=®¼+1=º2+1=®g;(4.6)S¤´Â(Â+1)=®¼+(Â+1)=(n®¼)+1=º2+1=®g;Q´[(n¡1)=n][Â(Â+1)=®¼]+1=º2+1=®g:4.2.1.Response to the common deterministic components of the gov-ernment…nancing requirementsPositive analysis:This subsection explores the solution for expected average debt¹d e;D1in(4.2). Whereas current in‡ation expectations are predetermined at the moment that debt is selected,future in‡ation expectations still need to be determined.A re-duction in debt reduces the future government…nancing requirement and,thus, the tax rate in the future.This,in turn,weakens the CCB’s incentive to raise future in‡ation in order to protect employment.Hence,by restraining debt ac-cumulation,governments help to reduce future in‡ation expectations,which are endogenous from a…rst-period perspective.The reduction in future in‡ation expectations implies a lower in‡ation bias in the future.In other words,asset accumulation is an indirect way to enhance the commitment of a central bank to low future in‡ation.12。

中国石化专业技术人员英语学习参考用书(试用版)

第一部分通用英语Part OneEnglish for General PurposesUNIT 1 How to be Happy如何获得幸福TextRead the text. Answer the given questions and translate the underlined sentences or paragraphs into Chinese.In the past two weeks we have looked at the happiness formula defined by positive psychologist Martin Seligman, where H (happiness) = S (your biological set point for feeling happy) + C (the conditions of your life) + V (the voluntary choices you make). This week we look at the conditions in life that can improve our happiness quotient.Step 1: Peace and quietJonathon Haidt in his excellent book, The Happiness Hypothesis, notes that research shows that we can never completely adapt to new or chronic noise pollution. Loud noises trigger one of our most primitive fear responses (the other is the fear of falling) and we can never fully relax if we are surrounded by intrusive noise. It is essential to have some peace and quiet every day. If you areunfortunate enough to live somewhere noisy, persist with complaining to your local council. Additionally, try wearing wax earplugs to have some respite. If you need your TV, radio or music up loud, wearing headphones demonstrates altruism to your neighbours, which will make you and them feel good.Step 2: RelationshipsThis is the most important of all the external conditions that can improve your happiness quotient. Often our deepest sources of unhappiness are found in poor relationships with others. A cruelly conflictual relationship with a partner or lover leaves us feeling betrayed and abandoned. A relationship with our parents or children which is not based on compassionate, unconditional regard creates isolation and misery. When faced with such relationships, the most positive thing we can do is to either mend the relationship by confronting what is going wrong or learn to move on.Step 3: ShareIf you have discovered conditions or choices in life that have significantly improved your wellbeing, remember to share them with friends. Passing on what works is essential to improve the wellbeing of our own and others.1. What's the happiness formula according to the passage?2. Why can we never completely adapt to new or chronicnoise pollution?3. How could we make both ourselves and the neighbors feel good?4. Where does the unhappiness come from?5. What is the positive way to face with the cruelly conflictual relationship?ExercisesA. Translate the following sentences into English.1．吵闹的邻居的确对我们家庭不和(domestic upset)有很大影响。