财务报表Chapter讲诉

5.
6.
9-7
The Projection Process
Target Corporation Projected Income Statement
1. 2. 3. 4. 5.
Sales: $52,204 = $46,839 x 1.11455 Gross profit: $17,157 = $52,204 x 32.866% Cost of goods sold: $35,047 = $52,204 - $17,157 Selling, general, and administrative: $11,741 = $52,204 x 22.49% Depreciation and amortization: $1,410 = $22,272 (beginning-period PP&E gross) x 6.333% 6. Interest: $493 = $9,538 (beginning-period interest-bearing debt) x 5.173% 7. Income before tax: $3,513 = $17,157 - $11,741 - $1,410 - $493 8. Tax expense: $1,328 = $3,513 x 37.809% 9. Extraordinary and discontinued items: none 10. Net income: $2,185 = $3,513 - $1,328
Financial Statement Analysis
K R Subramanyam John J Wild
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
Copyright © 2009 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
9-2
Prospective Analysis
CHAPTER
9
9-3
Analysis
Importance
Security Valuation - free cash flow and residual income models require estimates of future financial statements. Management Assessment - forecasts of financial performance examine the viability of companies’ strategic plans. Assessment of Solvency - useful to creditors to assess a company’s ability to meet debt service requirements, both short-term and long-term.
11.455% 32.866 22.49 6.333 5.173 37.809
12.336% 32.447 22.318 5.245 4.982 37.803
9-6
The Projection Process
Projected Income Statement
Steps:
1. 2. 3. 4. Project sales Project cost of goods sold and gross profit margins using historical averages as a percent of sales Project SG&A expenses using historical averages as a percent of sales Project depreciation expense as an historical average percentage of beginning-of-year depreciable assets Project interest expense as a percent of beginning-ofyear interest-bearing debt using existing rates if fixed and projected rates if variable Project tax expense as an average of historical tax expense to pre-tax income
9-8
The Projection Process
Target Corporation Projected Income Statement
(in millions) Forecasting Step Income statement Total revenues......................................................................................... 1 Cost of goods sold .................................................................................. 3 Gross profit............................................................................................. 2 Selling, general, and administrative expense ............................................ 4 Depreciation and amortization expense .................................................. 5 Interest expense...................................................................................... 6 Income before tax ................................................................................... 7 Income tax expense................................................................................. 8 Income (loss) from extraordinary items and discontinued operations ...... 9 Net income.............................................................................................. 10 Outstanding shares ......................................................................... Forecasting Assumptions (in percent) Sales growth........................................................................................... Gross profit margin................................................................................. Selling, general, and administrative expense/Sales ............................... Depreciation expense/Gross prior-year PP&E .......................................... Interest expense/Prior-year long-term debt............................................. Income tax expense/Pretax income ......................................................... 1 1 1 1 1 1 2006 Estimate $52,204 35,047 17,157 11,741 1,410 493 3,513 1,328 0 $ 2,185 891 11.455% 32.866 22.49 6.333 5.173 37.809
9-5
The Projection Process
Target Corporation Income Statements
(in millions) Sales.......................................................................................... Cost of goods sold ..................................................................... Gross profit................................................................................ Selling, general and administrative expense ............................. Depreciation and amortization expense ..................................... Interest expense......................................................................... Income before tax ...................................................................... Income tax expense.................................................................... Income (loss) from extraordinary items and discontinued operations................................................. Net income................................................................................. Outstanding shares ................................................................... Selected Ratios (in percent) Sales growth............................................................................ Gross profit margin.................................................................. Selling, general and administrative expense/Sales ................. Depreciation expense/Gross prior-year PP&E ........................... Interest expense/Prior-year long-term debt .............................. Income tax expense/Pretax income........................................... 2005 $46,839 31,445 15,394 10,534 1,259 570 3,031 1,146 1,313 $ 3,198 891 2004 $42,025 28,389 13,636 9,379 1,098 556 2,603 984 190 $ 1,809 912 2003 $37,410 25,498 11,912 8,134 967 584 2,227 851 247 $ 1,623 910
9-4
The Projection Process
Projected Income Statement
Sales forecasts are a function of:
1) Historical trends 2) Expected level of macroeconomic activity 3) The competitive landscape 4) New versus old store mix (strategic initiatives)