thecaseforpdca-120821154159-phpapp02

Prediction confirmation keeps you in place. Prediction error leads you out of your assumptions and forces exploration. This is because prediction error reveals a knowledge threshold.
PDCA drawing by Jurgen Appelo
© Mike Rother
TOYOTA KATA
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HOW PDCA WORKS
The “P” of PDCA is an expectation or a prediction... ...a hypothesis The “C” of PDCA is a reflection... What are we learning from this? What do we need to adjust?
P E
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P E
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P E
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P E
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P E
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P E
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P E
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P E
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P E
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Why? Because we canʼt predict the future. No plan we make is 100% correct and nothing goes 100% according to plan. Reaching an objective involves learning and making adjustments along the way.
TOYOTA KATA
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TAKEAWAYS
One of the ways we learn is through the steps of Plan --> Act --> Evaluate. This is a natural cycle. These steps are different from the mechanistic model that business is currently comfortable with. Plan --> Act --> Evaluate is mirrored by the PDCA cycle. When a step along the way goes differently than predicted or planned you often learn something new that helps you reach the goal. Although this is different from what business is currently comfortable with, we can practice a way to experiment in the “PDCA Zone.” Practicing the Improvement Kata allows us to actualize the PDCA approach in business and everyday life.
© Mike Rother
TOYOTA KATA
6
A LEARNING PROCESS IS GOING ON AS YOU TRY TO MOVE TOWARD A GOAL
Take the example of walking toward something. Constant sensory feedback and subconscious muscular adjustments are happening in order to generate effective locomotion. While you walk, information from various sensors is used to adapt your posture and walking pattern to the dynamic characteristics of the task, the environment and your body.
(Plan)
Evaluate
What actually happened? What did you learn?
Action
A main way we learn new things is when an actual outcome differs from the predicted outcome
© Mike Rother
TOYOTA KATA
8
HOW PREDICTION ERROR DRIVES LEARNING
Itʼs the scientific approach: When a result is as-predicted it confirms something you already thought. When a result is different than predicted you are about to learn something new.
Plan
Action
Evaluate
© Mike Rother
TOYOTA KATA
5
BUT OF COURSE IN REALITY YOUʼRE CONSTANTLY CYCLING THROUGH THOSE THREE STEPS
When you try to reach any objective you repeat the steps many times
© Mike Rother
TOYOTA KATA
3
SO LETʼS TAKE A LOOK
© Mike Rother
TOYOTA KATA
4
HOW DO YOU WORK TOWARD A GOAL?
Viewed from a distance, any human endeavor seems to involve three steps:
© Mike Rother
TOYOTA KATA
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HOW DO WE LEARN?
Believe it or not... An essential mechanism of learning is Prediction Error
What do you expect to happen?
Prediction
LEARNING ALONG THE WAY
Mike Rother & Bill Costantino August 2012
PDCA
Illustration from: The Adventures of Ned the Neuron
Copyright © 2013 Mike Rother, all rights reserved 1217 Baldwin Avenue / Ann Arbor, MI 48104 USA / tel: (734) 665-5411 / mrother@
Illustration from The Team Handbook, page 3-33
Unexpected results redirect your thinking, forcing new interpretations and steps. They put you at the learning edge. When you reflect and attempt to understand why your prediction was inaccurate you discover new insights and build new knowledge.
P E A P E P E
Plan
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P E A
A P E P E
P E A A
A P E P E P E
P E A A A
A P E P E
P E A A
A P E
P E A
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Big Project
Landing an Airplane
Driving to Work
Evaluate
Action
Reward Prediction
Strengthen or weaken this one synapse
Actual result Syearning) via a cycle of prediction, met or not, evaluated by dopamine.
© Mike Rother
TOYOTA KATA
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WHY THIS SLIDESHARE?
There are many challenges humans face, but we can handle them... if we manage ourselves a little differently Why should we manage ourselves differently? Because a scientific, iterative way of thinking & acting is not the typical way adults nor our business organizations think & act. We naturally prefer to define the steps weʼll take, determine whoʼs responsible for each step, assign timing and execute the plan. We do need to make plans, but the approach we may naturally prefer is often not effective for meeting goals in complex situations.