SYSTEM APPROACH ENABLES MORE HOLISTIC INFORMATION MANAGEMENT NEEDED FOR QUALITY DECISION MA

SYSTEM APPROACH ENABLES MORE HOLISTIC INFORMATIONMANAGEMENT NEEDEDFOR QUALITY DECISION MAKINGTomaž Kramberger1Bojan Rosi2Andrej Lisec3Uroš Kramar31 University of Maribor, Faculty of Logistics, Celje and Krško, Slovenia. E-mails: tomaz.kramberger@uni-mb.si2 Senior Lecturer of Systems Theory and Transport Engineering, University of Maribor, Faculty of Logistics, Celje and Krško, Slovenia. E-mail: bojan.rosi@uni-mb.si3 University of Maribor, Faculty of Logistics, Celje and Krško, Slovenia. E-mails: andrej.lisec@uni-mb.si, uros.kramar@uni-mb.si.System Approach Enables More Holistic Information Management Needed For Quality Decision 2AbstractModern complexity of management is associated with important decision making, confronting a great number of useless information. Selection of information-the choice of only quality ones, i.e. essential ones, is a big problem in management decision-making. Implementation of systemic approach i.e. dialectical- network thinking (DNT) can help dealing with it.It is known that decision-making based only on intuition is insufficient, especially nowadays, in the time of global business. Therefore, managers have to operate with adequate knowledge capital. It is synergetic composition of inborn talents, feelings, abilities as well as gained knowledge and experiences. DNT put this capital knowledge into function of management decision-making, thus easier and holistic information management needed for quality and efficient and successful problem solving. It enables managers to be creative, co-operative and interdisciplinary. It opens possibilities for combination of theory and practice in the decision making processes, as presented in our contribution.Quality, holistic management decision making, create competitive advantages. It can be proved by an practical example of decision making about preventive measures in the winter time (roads gritting and ploughing). Great importance of quality, in time and enough holistic information, is presented with the model of Short Term Road Ice Prediction, which gives us information for quality decision making.Key words: requisite holism, management, systemic thinking, dialectical network thinking, road safety, combinatorial optimization, algorithm.Tomaž Kramberger, Bojan Rosi, Andrej Lisec, Uroš Kramar 31 The Selected Problem and Viewpoint of Dealing with ItFrom one viewpoint, our past, and present connected with its actuality, as well as future, are segments of our world, which can be considered as an intricacy – into net entangled system, (= entangled holism and its perception, coming out from the chosen aspects or /dialectical/ systems of aspects). Differences between, what was, what is and what will be, or what we want to be, are huge, because effects of the human acting have become more intensive and more global (= world-entangled). We have found out that extensive humane activities affect world’s permanent changing. Consequences are seen, among the others, in the continuous confrontation with different – always new problem situations and their solving; among the basic features of the both are complexity(= intricacy under the influence of relationships) and dynamic. Researching and managing such phenomenon can be supported by competence in usage of the theory of systems.Fathers of the theory of systems (L. von Bertallanffy, 1979), (Mulej, 2000) noticed (already less than sixty years ago) sensibility of the theory of system to develop theoretical approaches (=general directions), methodologies (=knowledge about methods) and methods (=way of treatment), to support practice – systemic thinking – in researching, analysing (= recognition of the hidden essence), in preparation and decision implementation, considering essence of entangled phenomenon. Thus, the mankind would become able to think, make decisions, and act as holistically as possible, instead of practicing one way /unilateral and simplified thinking (Mulej, 2000), (Rosi, 2004,).Sense of the systemic thinking, as it is predicted by modern Dialectal Network Thinking (DNT)(Rosi, 2004)) is therefore the most (= sufficient) holistic4and realistic preparation and performance of human activities, when we deal with researching, development, decision making, informing or performing. It is important to use DNT in each aspect of the complex problem solving. The very moment we do not consider influence of the choice of the aspects, we can easily fall into virtual holism5when we think, make decisions and act/perform – or carry out, for example, management decisions. Global business conditions force us to try to be holistic in our way of thinking, making decisions and acting, as much as it is possible and needed at the same time.2 The process of requisite holistic decision-making2.1 Problem of management decision-makingQuality of management depends on creative, dynamic, qualified, into development and interdisciplinary cooperation directed managers. However, nowadays, in the world of global economy they do not have on disposal/do not operate with sufficient quantity of information, needed for (more or less) complex problems solving and with them connected/linked decision-making6. This is of great importance (Rozman, 1993), (Vila, 1994), as the purpose of information is to decrease/cut down on risk, included into each decision-making, as we make decisions about the future. It is not difficult to prepare a lot of data; but it is difficult, or almost impossible to provide proper information in time for those who make decisions. On the other side, waiting for information paralyse decision-making and problem solving linked with it. Information quality influences the degree of risk, as decisions are 4Holistic approach is an expression easy to use but difficult to define in detail/precisely, for example: Bertalanffy, 1968 /and before/; Checkland, 1981 both in Mulej et all, 1992, p. 18-21; Mulej and co-authors, 2000, p. 32-34; Mulej, Ženko, 2004, p. 14-17, 24-29; Rosi, 2004, p. 1-2, 6-7; etc.). Holistic approach contains all, all components and all their relationships (links and relations), characterising treated phenomenon, of course, it is impossible to include everything.Therefore, holistic approach is not performable, not at all when we speak about work and thinking of people as individuals without (co-professional) co-operation, at the same time it may overburden us. Obviously, it has to be decided which level of holistic approach is satisfactory enough and needed at the same time, for actual case.5Because of one way thinking/one sided, which may be consequence of extensive specialisation; we may have overlooked or neglected essence when we made choice or even aspect of treatment of some manager’s decision.6 Decision-making and with it linked/connected (human) activities have more meanings: to express willingness, e.g. how it should be (to have the right) to make decisions about work, life…// to give, express your final opinion/judgement: decision is made by company management, competent person, commission, institution.; to define outcome of sth,: choosing among alternative possibilities// make decisions, direct: it defined his destiny; to make decision 1. by thinking come to the state when individual wants to act, realise: one after another made decision to help them; it is difficult to make decision according to your conscience; to be in a state when a person hesitate about what to choose, etc. Dictionary of Slovene Standard Language, /SSKJ/ 1996).System Approach Enables More Holistic Information Management Needed For Quality Decision 4 divided into decisions made in certain situations, decisions in risky situations and decisions in uncertain situations.Decision-making in management (Tavčar, 2002), can be performed by using routine, analyses or intuiton7. Routine making decision is carried out normatively (according to the rules). Analysed decision-making is carried out on the basis on the research (knowledge supported) of the phenomenon in the more complicated circumstances. Intuitive decision making is used directly, or when there are no other possibilities, it origins in person’s subconscious. In management, there is a great share of intuitive decision making in top management and it has to be mastered by choice of personnel/stuff (capable and talented managers). On the executive level the share of intuitive decision making is slight; the decision making is mastered by inspection and normative approach. The author says that top management decision making is made of 80 % intuition, 16 % analyse and 4 % routine; on the other extreme, on the executive management level there is 2 % of intuitive, 35 % analysed and 36 % routine decision-making.We presume, that many persons, especially modern managers have to make decisions on the basis of intuition because of missing and partial information. It means, he/she makes decision intuitively8, which is possible to improve by the intuition techniques and at last but not least, although it has not been scientifically confirmed, also by recognition of the influence to subconscious. In people and business management of special importance for decision making are empathy, inspiration, experiences and knowledge (Kralj, 1997). Especially manager’s knowledge capital of obtained or accumulated in similar situations (Rosi, 2004).In decision making, managers use intuition and knowledge in different combinations: at the beginning, intuition has to be used more because of the poor knowledge9; latter seemed that the only right way is knowledge (Kralj, 1995). It has also been shown, that in crises, when fast solution had to be made, usage of empathy and inspiration were successfully applied, supported with already accumulated knowledge and experiences. Many times it is more sensible to solve small (simple) problems using intuition, because the costs and damages are lower than in case of coming up with solutions to big problems.In the latest decades, a lot of researches were carried out showing that on the field of management some people have great intuition and make decisions successfully using it. These phenomena appear more often on the higher level of decision-making, where less structured decisions have to be made (less clear decisions). It has also been shown that team co-operation is developed parallel with this phenomenon.Of course, only intuition is not enough for quality decision-making. Knowledge capital, which are consequences of most different influences, are also needed: (inborn and developed) feelings, talents and abilities, education, environment, experience and sometimes also luck. All these are components which help managers to achieve requisite or sufficient holistic decision, enabling them to take into account all essential components and liaisons in the process of decision-making. Quality10 decisions are fruit of the systemic thinking, as it is DNT and is dedicated to the management complex problem solving.7Intuition, f, direct comprehension, perception of the essence of sth, independently of the sensible dissection, inspiration: to be dedicated, lead by intuition; create and work by intuition, with intuition; to be gifted with intuition; expressionistic work was a fruit of pure intuition// intuitivism: to have intuition; contribution is an evidence of author’s great intuition (SSKJ, 1996).8In the knowledge about management there is prevalent belief that managers have to make decisions on the basis of analyses (as far as 80%) and also supported by knowledge and scientific achievements. Practice of the very successful OPS shows that their managers “naively” believe into intuition and act according to it (Kralj, 1997, p. 29-31).9 Researches say (Agor, 1989 in Kralj, 1995, p. 88) that usage of intuition is especially useful in decision making if:•there is a high level of uncertainty,•there were few experiences, (precedent)•there are no reliable facts,•the time is very limited and pressure to choose right solution great,•when there are more acceptable solutions, which seem to be sensible and supported by “factual” arguments/proves.10 This can be achieved by the system of aspects, which are (Mulej, 2000, p. 32):•systemic (=considering global characteristics, not being a part of each component) which are not part of each segment;•systematic (=considering the characteristics of the segments, details);•dialectic (= considering interdependence of the segments, which take them into liaison/and mutual influence and originating new characteristic, possessed by the whole and not by the segment);•realistic/materialistic (= as little simplification of the real picture as possible in comparison with the real characteristics/ the least possible simplification of the reality)Tomaž Kramberger, Bojan Rosi, Andrej Lisec, Uroš Kramar 52.2 Hierarchy and the process of the management decision-makingEverything in the nature, including a human, is undergoing permanent changing, causing components interdependence. In the process of changing, one thing happens before another. Practice shows that preceding steps in the process are more influential than the later11. The same can be found out when we speak about management decision making, knowing hierarchy of superiority and inferiority of decisions. Higher levels defines the goals of decisions, afterwards lower levels realise them. Thus, actually the hierarchy of sequences and inter-dependence12 of (alternative) decisions and activities are important for their realisation (Mulej, 2000), (Rosi, 2004).Managers, for example, do not have a task to enforce their will, but to act out during the early phases of the process chain, e.g. to make decisions in case of many alternatives, too many data and messages (i.e. comprising clear data) and therefore too few information (i.e. influential messages, satisfying information needs). Numerous interdependence should be taken into consideration, e.g. those between people on the same organisational-hierarchic level and those on the different levels, and also those between the events, processes in the organisation and its surroundings, otherwise we (may be) have data, but we do not have (useful) information.When there are more solutions or alternatives to the problem, it means that the same problem can be solved on different ways. Alternative is not only about that, that one decision can solve the problem, and the other not, but about different solutions which can, more or less successfully, solve the problem or prevent its origin.Just a great number of problem-solving alternatives or their prevention, demands some kind of a criterion, to help us provide more or less successful solution classification and to help us to be able to choose, presumably most successful possibilities. The criterion is usually the goal of the issue we are making decision about, and can be differed according to the carrier or giver/contributor of the decision or his/her interests (Rozman, 1993).Considering all above, we give priority to so called decision-making rationality. It means that a person who makes decision has all information, knowledge capital to recognise a problem and priority situations, knows decision making criteria and all solutions to them, which can be evaluated, and predict all consequences. In practice, such examples are seldom (the same as we said for the holism), therefore we speak about “limited rationality” (=lack of insight) in decision making, often not giving the best solutions. Consequently, many times we have to be satisfied with not good enough (unilateral and therefore not holistic) solutions. However, DNT can help managers to solve this problem.2.3 DNT as a Managemnt Tool for Holistic Decision MakingDialectical-network thinking (DNT) (Rosi 2004), is able to give enough support to holistic thinking, decision-making and acting when we have to solve complex management situations, because dialectical systemic approach supports recognition of interdependence of the participants in the problem solving process (different but essential professions/occupations, cultures). On the basis of these findings, managers can form such a list of (=needed and sufficient) potential solutions easier, to mitigate decision making process of problem solving.Usage of DNT will enable managers to overcome actual narrowness and bias13 of the people (specialists), and with them closely associated (dangerous) lack of sufficient and requisite holistic11The examples can be found: in maths expressed by Marxs chain, in ecology by circulation, in organisations circulation, known from organisational cybernetic and similar. (Mulej, 2000, p. 146-147; Rosi, 2004, p. 133)12According to the laws on hierarchy of sequences and interdependence(Mulej, 2000, p. 83-84, p. 102-103; Rosi, 2004, p. 116) unfortunately not included in OMR, in the working process and with it linked problem solving the starting points are most important. Humane life practice and work process show that there are two (interdependent) subsystems of starting points processes. The first one proportionally does not depend on human, therefore it is objective part of the starting point, the second is subjective one, made of sensible and emotional parts – personality’s value priorities.13 One-sidedness/ one way thinking is, because of natural reasons, necessary and very dangerous, at the same time. It may lead to enough deep insight into a specific part of an item, but overlooking a lot of other things, which cannot be considered by a single profession. Therefore, they consider them or unimportant or as an issue of another profession, and not as their own concern (Mulej, 2000, p. 49).System Approach Enables More Holistic Information Management Needed For Quality Decision 6 thinking, decision-making and execution. Will and ability to achieve sufficient and necessary holism are inevitable in the process of decision making about (more or less) complicated problems. We have to know how to enlighten each problem from the different viewpoints and then create the picture of the real problem to which solutions all management decisions should be subordinated.We must not forget that decisions for incorrectly/wrongly defined problems bring more harm than benefits, as they give (misleading) feeling that we have made good decisions and solved problems. So we can solve problems trying to choose an optimal or enough good solution, or trying to reach them by adequate model. Deviation from optimal solution (and its consequences) and the actual state is an actual problematic state, which influences management decision-making.Problem solving has on disposal short term and long term successful solutions. Researches show that managers give advantage to short-term success; but it has been also proved that the successes of the short term decisions are relatively small. Similarly, some solutions eliminate difficulties on one field, but at the same time cause difficulties on the other. Holistic solutions should have priority, but as described in the researches, they are rather seldom.Accordingly, it is essential that using DNT enables managers to reach more quality decisions (better than before), what means that so made decisions give better and long-lasting effects. Beside this, decisions are consequences of real problems, met in everyday business. They demand professional, in time and to the circumstances adjusted enough holistic prompt actions.What kind of holism will managers achieve, depends on their subjective starting points, it means their personality – values, emotions, talents, insight and knowledge, basic thinking, decision making and way of taking steps and their behaviour14. It depends on managers which style of thinking and decision-making they will practise.3 An example of an expert systemNowadays, there are a lot of (management) theoretical and practical advice, techniques, methods etc, for more efficient and successful organisational and business leadership systems. Without knowing about systemic thinking, managers would not be able to integrate theories and practice into so called continuous interdependent dynamic process. Suchlike (everyday) processes cause complex problem decision-making situations, which in many cases can not be solved by out-of-date/disused methods.Managers must not underestimate modern intricacies; they have to cope with them in their everyday work. Quality of their decisions is conditioned by synergy effects of intuition, insight/vednosti and knowledge, which they should know to direct into creative systemic thinking and (co) operation in solving complex problem.Other than that, there are numerous other practical devices/ tools as it has been shown in the practical example used on field of winter maintenance service. To treat the service properly, we should take into consideration both security and economical effects. Regarding security, the most exposed and first icy road network spots should have priority. From the economical point of view, all these roads have to be scattered one after another using the cheapest route. In this paper, we consider only the first task, i.e. timely prediction of the icy spots at affordable cost. Let us only note that the optimization of the routes open another avenue of research of both theoretical and practical interest.3.1 IntroductionThis section deals with an optimal organization of scattering icy roads. To be carried out properly, we should take into consideration both security and economical effects. Here we assume that the shortest route is also the cheapest. Winter ploughing and scattering of the road is of most importance and of 14 Good example of organisational practice is (Mulej, Ženko, 2004, p. 37): when somebody is promoted from a clerk to a general director, he/she has to get rid of the focusing to details. Details have to be concern of the specialist for the defined segment, or the employee carrying out a task on the assembly line. Upper on the scale, the horizon must be wider, acting less in detail and more co-operative, scope of the requisite holism greater and less into detail and current characteristic, more into log-lasting essence. Input and output information are less in detail, more global, less tactical and operative, more strategic, political, visionary. Consequence of all these is also different/altered approach to decision-making (adjusted to organisational hierarchy).Tomaž Kramberger, Bojan Rosi, Andrej Lisec, Uroš Kramar 7 great expense. If the roads are not ploughed or slippery roads are not scattered, participants in traffic are exposed to great danger. Weather conditions often cause traffic jams and have negative economic effect, at least causing great dissatisfaction in people.Let G (V,E,u ) be an undirected weighted graph, where V is the set of nodes, E is the set of edges and u : E Ρ is a weight function assigning a positive cost of traversing edges . The well-known Chinese Postman problem is to find the shortest postman tour traversing each edge of a graph at least once. Several real-world problems, such as street sweeping, mail delivery, solid waste collection, salt gritting and snow ploughing can be modelled as Chinese postman problems with some additional constraints. In several papers (Ghiani, &Improta 2000), (Wang, & Wen 2002), (Thornes 1991), (Shao, Lister, Hart, &Pearson 1997) this problem is considered using different formulations. Here we give a formal definition that is not equivalent to those in (Ghiani, et al., 2000) and (Wang, et al., 2002). While it is natural to model the problem with a variant of the Chinese postman problem, the most appropriate definition of the cost function is not obvious. Here we define a multiobjective cost function where the most important goal is to minimize the total cost (time, mileage), and second, among all Chinese postman solutions we are looking for walks that will visit the priority nodes as soon as possible.3.2 Problem definitionThe problem considered here is formally defined as follows:Given an undirected weighted graph G (V,E,u ), and a (short) sequence of priority nodes 1v , 2v , …,k v , the objective is to find a walk, which is(1) the shortest walk, which traverses each edge at least once, and(2) among the solutions which satisfy (1), find the walk that visits 1v as soon as possible(3) among the solutions which satisfy (2), find the walk that visits 2v as soon as possible….(k) among the solutions which satisfy (k -1), find the walk that visits k v as soon as possible3.3 The algorithmWe propose a solution which is a combination of the well-known algorithms for minimum matching, Fleury’s algorithm for constructing an eulerian walk and the Dijkstra’s algorithm for computing shortest paths (Dijkstra 1959). In short, the algorithm proceeds as follows. First, as for the basic Chinese postman problem, the set of odd nodes is identified and shortest paths between pair of nodes are added to the original graph, introducing double edges if necessary ,see, for example (Wilson, 1997), or any textbook in combinatorial optimization (Papadimitrou, &Steiglitz 1998), (Korte, &Vygen 2003, (Skiena 1990), (Wilson, &Watkins 1997). The new graph will be denoted by 0G . Any polynomial algorithm for minimum matching of an auxiliary graph can be used. In the second phase, an eulerian walk on the new graph is constructed. First, a walk 1P from depot to the first priority node 1v is chosen according to the following rule: it is one of the walks from 0v to 1v which are shortest under condition that 0G without 1P is connected. Denote 101P G G −=. Then, a walk 2P is chosen such that it is a shortest walk from 1v to 2v such that 212P G G −= remains connected. If 2v has already been visited, then 2P is empty. In this way, all priority nodes are visited and finally, a walk back to 0v is constructed which covers all the edges in k G .System Approach Enables More Holistic Information Management Needed For Quality Decision 83.4 Example of the solutionFig. 1Let us consider node 1v . Vehicle should drive all the roads and scatter them in the fastest possible way visiting priority spots/arcs within the shortest time. The priority nodes are, in this order: crossing 9v , crossing 15v and crossing 5v .According to the idea of the algorithm presented in Section 3.3, we have to construct an Eulerian graph (i.e. a graph with all nodes of even degree). To the graph with odd degree nodes we add new connections, so that all odd degree nodes will have even degree. We choose all the odd degree nodes and form an auxiliary graph, which is a complete graph and the edge weights correspond to the distances in the original graph. In our example, we have six odd degree nodes and the edge weights (or, distance) matrix:2v 3v 7v 8v 13v 15v2v1 12 43 3v 12 2 4 4 7v 12 13 2 8v 22 1 23 13v 44 3 2 2 15v 3 4 2 3 2T a b le 1A minimum matching has to be found, for example using the algorithm for minimum perfect matching with time complexity 4() O n (Korte, et al.2003). In our case, the optimal solution is 2v →3v , 7v →8v , 13v →15v which can be found quickly even by inspecting all possible cases. Thus, we get a new graph 0G , in which all nodes have even degree:Tomaž Kramberger, Bojan Rosi, Andrej Lisec, Uroš Kramar 9Note that the new edge 13v →15v is in fact a shortest path 13v →14v →15v .Once we have the eulerian graph, we can find the eulerian walk with Fleury’s algorithm. Recall that in Fleury’s algorithm we have a lot of freedom for the construction of the walk as long as we do not cross bridges, see, for example (Wilson, 1990). In other words, we must not disconnect the remaining graph. In our case we have priority nodes, therefore want to visit the priority nodes as soon as possible. However, not any shortest path can be taken. We have to find the path that is the shortest among the paths such that 101P G G −= is a connected graph. To find the shortest paths, we can apply Dijkstra’s algorithm to calculate the value of the node distances i d from node 1v to the node i v . Dijkstra’s algorithm runs in time ()2O n . In our example, we get value of the distances i d and other nodes, as seen in Fig. 3.Fig. 3To find the shortest path from 1v to 9v , we start from the node 9v and construct the shortest path backwards. Let i d be the value of the distance from the node to the 1v , ij u and distance between node 9v and observed neighbouring nodes. Clearly, neighbours with value ij i u d d −=9 are on the shortest paths from 1v to 9v . When there are more nodes each is labelled and for each one the same procedure is repeated. In our case nodes 8v and 10v should be considered because 3258=−=d and 32510=−=d . We move to node 10v , and repeat the whole procedure. From this node we observe only one node, 7v , for which it holds 2137=−=d . Procedure should be repeated for nodes 2v and。