scenario
scenario copilot技术原理
场景：自动驾驶领域1. 概述自动驾驶技术作为人工智能领域的一个热点，近年来取得了长足的进步。
在自动驾驶系统中，无人驾驶汽车需要准确地理解并响应各种复杂的交通场景，包括车辆、行人、信号灯、交通标志等，以确保车辆在安全、高效地行驶。
而在这个过程中，场景理解和决策制定是至关重要的环节。
2. 场景理解与决策制定在自动驾驶系统中，场景理解即通过对周围环境的感知和理解来识别和推断当前交通场景。
而决策制定则是在理解了交通场景后，根据车辆自身状态和交通规则，制定合理的行驶策略和决策。
而在这一过程中，由于交通场景的复杂性，传统的计算机视觉和规则制定方法已经无法满足实际需求，因此需要借助于更加智能化的技术来完成这一过程。
3. 深度学习技术近年来，深度学习技术在场景理解和决策制定领域取得了巨大的成功。
深度学习技术能够通过大量的数据来学习和推断复杂的模式和规律，并在很大程度上提高了场景理解和决策制定的准确性和可靠性。
然而，深度学习技术在自动驾驶领域中的应用依然面临一些挑战，比如数据需求量大、训练时间长、泛化能力差等问题。
4. scenario copilot技术原理针对自动驾驶领域的场景理解和决策制定问题，研究人员提出了一种新的技术，即scenario copilot技术，该技术采用了一系列新的方法和算法来提高自动驾驶系统的场景理解和决策制定能力。
其技术原理主要包括以下几个方面：（1）数据模拟和增强在传统的深度学习系统中，数据是影响模型性能的关键因素之一。
而在自动驾驶领域，获取大规模且具有丰富多样性的数据是非常困难的。
scenario copilot技术采用了数据模拟和增强的方法来扩充训练数据，以提高模型的泛化能力和鲁棒性。
（2）多模态融合在自动驾驶系统中，不同的感知器件（比如相机、激光雷达、毫米波雷达等）能够提供丰富的信息来描述周围环境。
而将这些多模态数据进行有效的融合，能够大大提高系统的场景理解能力。
scenario copilot技术采用了一系列多模态融合的算法，来将不同感知器件的信息进行有效整合。
lr中英文对照
Tools → Recording Options，选择Recording
八、运行时设置(Runtime Settings)：
Vuser → Runtime Settings 或快捷键F4
Run Logic选项：Number of Iterations：迭代次数
加验证点时必须选中。
4. 在独立模式下运行Vuser脚本
5. 集成Vuser脚本
(二) Controller:用于组织、驱动、管理和监控负载测试。
1. 创建方案
(1) 创建手动方案
(2) 创建百分比模式方案
(3) 创建面向目标的方案
2. 计划方案
(1) 开始时间
(2) 方案运行设置：加压Ramp Up、持续时间Duration、减压Ramp Dowm
(5) Transaction Performance Summary事务性能摘要图
4. Web Resource Graphs (Web 资源图)
(1) Hits per Second 每秒点击次数图
(2) Throughput吞吐量图
(3) HTTP Status Code Summary HTTP状态代码摘要图
以对象本身作为参照物，如 your name is jack
Right what left
2. 图片验证点：
Insert→New Step…，在弹出对话框中双击Web Checks，点击Image Check
ALT attribute：点击图片时，图片上显示的文本信息
(3) 事务Transaction:事务开始Start Transaction、事务结束End Transaction
lovescenario音译歌词
lovescenario 音译歌词1. 引言在我们生活中，音乐是不可或缺的一部分。
它可以陪伴我们度过喜怒哀乐的时刻，让我们感受到无比深刻的情感。
音乐的魅力跨越了语言的障碍，让我们能够在任何时候都能欣赏到来自全球各地的音乐作品。
本文将为大家带来一首非常热门的歌曲《lovescenario》的音译歌词。
这首歌曲由韩国音乐制作团队iKON创作，并以其独特的旋律和动人的歌词在全球范围内风靡。
通过本文，我们将一起感受这首歌曲所传达的情感和故事。
2. 歌曲简介《lovescenario》是iKON于2018年发行的第二张专辑《RETURN》中的主打歌曲。
这首歌由iKON的成员B.I和BOBBY共同创作，并由B.I担当制作人。
歌曲采用了流行舞曲的曲风，结合了抒情的旋律和富有感情的歌词，表达了爱情中种种情景的美好和复杂。
3. lovescenario歌词以下是《lovescenario》的中文音译歌词，让我们一起来感受这首歌表达的情感：起风的这天雾霭渐开我以疤痕点缀我的困惑用太阳遮住的眼睛微笑起来幸福感填充我整个心房遥远的远方恍若隔世那里有我们共同画下的场景手牵手看着对方的眼睛希望时间能停留在这一刻Oh 爱情应该要充实也应该要盲目为了你的笑容我愿意变得勇敢我不想你的泪水在我的怀里降落我愿意守护你直到永远悲伤的言语曾经细语呢喃变成了没有意义的背叛时间带走了温暖的瞬间但记忆永恒不会消散回忆淡薄但依旧会发抖这个爱情场景永远无法忘记我只想紧紧地抱住你的双臂将我们的心交织成不可分割的一体Oh 爱情应该要充实也应该要盲目为了你的笑容我愿意变得勇敢我不想你的泪水在我的怀里降落我愿意守护你直到永远啊啊啊啊啊我们曾经走过的街道现在是否依旧存在着我们的回忆用余生来完成我们心中的愿望那才是属于我们的爱的终点Oh 爱情应该要充实也应该要盲目为了你的笑容我愿意变得勇敢我不想你的泪水在我的怀里降落我愿意守护你直到永远以上即是《lovescenario》的音译歌词。
[分享]情景规划（scenarioplanning）
![[分享]情景规划（scenarioplanning）](https://img.taocdn.com/s3/m/0b18866e178884868762caaedd3383c4bb4cb448.png)
情景规划（scenario planning）什么是情景规划？情景规划（scenario planning）是理清扑朔迷离的未来的一种重要方法。
情景规划要求公司先设计几种未来可能发生的情形，接着再去想像会有哪些出人意料的事发生。
这种分析方法使你可以开展充分客观的讨论，使得战略更具弹性。
高明的棋手总是能清晰地想象下一步和下几步棋的多种可能的“情景”。
而“情景规划”能提供预防机制，让管理者“处变不惊”——对突变既非阵脚大乱，也非无动于衷。
它更接近于一种虚拟性身临其境的博弈游戏，在问题没有发生之前，想象性地进入到可能的情景中预演，当想象过的情景真正出现时，我们将能从容和周密地加以应对了。
情景规划（Scenario Planning）最早出现在第二次世界大战之后不久，当时是一种军事规划方法。
美国空军试图想象出它的竞争对手可能会采取哪些措施，然后准备相应的战略。
在20世纪60年代，兰德公司和曾经供职于美国空军的赫尔曼•卡恩（Herman Kahn），把这种军事规划方法提炼成为一种商业预测工具。
卡恩后来成为美国顶尖的未来学家。
作为管理工具，情景规划由于荷兰皇家壳牌石油运用它成功地预测到发生于1973年的石油危机，才第一次为世人所重。
因为情景规划在壳牌所取得的巨大成功，近年来，这种管理方法的应用和研究也逐渐在企业界和学术界流行起来，关于这个方法的介绍在美国的主流商业媒体上也频频出现。
例如，1994年，英国政府透过“科技发展计划”（Technology Foresight Program）针对各项产业领域，结合学术界、产业界与政府部门组成15个独立的产业智囊，运用“情境规划”分析来规划各产业在2015年的情况。
壳牌公司对情景规划的贡献壳牌公司认识到，管理者需要对这些具有重大价值的情景加以改进，以使问题表述得更加清楚明晰。
情景中的情节应当针对某一特定的观众群或事件。
事实上，给情景赋予具体的商业目的正是该公司对情景规划贡献的一部分。
ODI-方案(Scenario)和计划(Schedule)
方案（Scenario）和计划（Schedule）
1生成方案
Designer->项目->Training_Project->第一个文件夹->包->sales_pkg，右键，“生成方案”
“确定”
生成方案。
2计划
2.1 新建计划
Designer->项目->Training_Project->第一个文件夹->包->sales_pkg->方案->SALES_PKG\版本001->计划，右键，“插入计划”
2.2 计划“定义”标签
选择上下文、代理、日志级别、状态、执行（计划开始重复频率），每小时（计划开始的具体时间分秒），如下图：
2.3 “执行循环”标签
如果选择“无”，则重复频率就是“定义”标签中“执行”指定的重复频率，执行时间就是“定义”标签中“每小时”指定的具体时间。
如果选择“多次”，重复频率是多次的设定确定的。
我们这里选择“无”：
3启动Scheduler Agent，按照计划运行包
进入DOS命令窗口，
cd ODI安装路径\oracledi\bin
agentscheduler “-port=20910”“-name=local_agent”“-v=5”
port是指物理代理的端口
name是指物理代理的名称（区分大小写）
v是指日志等级，5是最详细级别
命令运行后DOS命令窗口会出现如下显示：
4Operator中查看按照计划运行的对象的运行情况。
任务Task、用例UseCase、用户故事UserStory、场景Scenario
任务Task、用例UseCase、用户故事UserStory、场景Scenario与任务类似的概念有：用例、用户故事、场景等。
在本小节，我们会对其作详细的澄清。
任务Task任务，来自“目标导向的活动模型”，即：目标-任务-工具，它所描述的是人们为了到达某种目标而采取的行动。
用户所采取的行动有大有小、有粗有细，其粒度是与“目标”的层次相对应的。
设计软件时，我们需要考虑海平面及更高的任务目标。
任务是对用户为了达到某种目标所采取的行动的统称，它既可以是海平面级的任务，也可以是风筝层、云彩层的任务。
海平面级的任务是最小粒度的任务，游鱼层、蛤贝层的用户“行动”一般对应执行任务时所采取的“步骤”，它们都没有业务价值。
因此，我们可以讲任务定义为“有业务价值的”用户行动。
由于海平面级的任务有着最小的业务价值，所以，我们以后提到“任务”一词时通常都特指“海平面级的任务”，对应“用户级别的目标”。
用例UseCase“用例是代表系统中各涉众之间就系统的行为所达成的契约。
用例描述了在不同条件下，系统对某一涉众的请求所做出的响应。
提出请求的涉众被称为主执行者（primary actor）。
主执行者通过发起与系统的一次交互来实现某个目标。
系统对任一执行者所做出的响应，要保证所有涉众的利益不受侵犯。
根据执行者做出的请求和请求涉及的条件，系统将执行不同的行为序列，每一行为序列称之为一个场景（Scenario）。
一个用例是多个不同场景的集合。
”以上是Alistair Cockburn在《编写有效用例》中对“用例”的一段描述。
在我看来，用例更像是一种文学体裁，一种与小说、诗歌、散文等并列的文学体裁。
用例这种体裁很适合用来描述业务过程、软件需求以及人机交互过程。
也就是说，我们写用例的目的，就是要对业务过程、软件需求、人机交互过程等进行详细准确的描述，以便让涉众就软件系统的行为达成一致。
而用例，正是能清晰地记录涉众所达成的一致意见的最佳表达形式，所以，用例不仅仅是一种“契约”，它也正是记录涉众就系统行为所达成的一致意见的“最佳体裁”。
Scenario案例假设最终版本
Scenario今天是2014年4月1日。
YJ公司是一家石油天然气探察和生产的公司。
你是这家公司的管理顾问。
编写一份报告，报告包括对YJ所面临的问题进行优先性考虑、分析和评估。
要求写出合理的建议并在附件中展示所有的计算结果。
在开始前读一下的信息。
您作为一名在石油和天然气勘探和生产行业（ E＆P）有专门知识的管理顾问。
YJ董事会面临着许多问题，在他们做决定之前，需要寻求你的建议。
你应该总结的潜在的问题，提供对问题的分析，对于董事会应该怎么做给出你自己的详细意见。
其中一些道德层面的问题，董事会希望你解释这些潜在的道德问题并指出行动的可能过程以便于维持一个企业的道德水准。
执照申请结果在今年早些时候申请的四个执照，YJ取得了在三个不同的领域（ EEE ， FFF 和GGG ）测试钻孔的权利。
但是第四个（ HHH ）没有申请成功，其中有传言说，执照授予了一个对于“简易化支付”有着非常宽松态度的独立的E&P公司。
YJ 立即在新闻中公布了股价上涨的消息-----达到了创纪录水平35美元。
UllanShah对于这个消息很高兴，即使他不确定YJ是否有财务或管理能力测试钻孔这三个站点。
在尚未签订任何合同的情况下，执照申请仅仅在两周内就被接受了。
在所有情况下测试钻井必须从2015年3月31日开始，所有的测试钻井作业预计将持续12个月。
所有的作业点都在浅水中，也都在YJ的技术能力范围内。
Orit Mynde（CFO）请了病假，预计工作的时间不超过一个月，这对于在前面提到的两周内新执照的验收阶段，来不及做关于融资的任何有意义的工作。
Orit Mynde想知道从配股和贷款中业务能提高多少，又能从业务中形成多少现金从今年到2015年3月31日。
所需的测试钻井开支作为许可证招标过程中的经费由Milo Purdeen估计，这些组成部分计算见7页附录1 。
Ullan Shah已经做了一些研究，发现了两篇报纸上的文章，他认为反映了参与的经济投资者目前的想法。
与朋友打招呼的英语对话
与朋友打招呼的英语对话Scenario 1: Meeting a Friend in a Casual Setting.Person A: Hey! I didn't expect to see you here!Person B: Same here! How's it going?Person A: I'm doing great. Just hanging out with friends.Person B: Me too! I'm here with my friends as well.Person A: That's awesome. Maybe we can hang out together later?Person B: Sure, I'd love to.Scenario 2: Meeting a Friend at a Formal Event.Person A: Ms. Smith, it's a pleasure to see you again.How have you been?Person B: Mr. Jones, it's lovely to see you too. I've been well, thank you.Person A: I'm glad to hear that. I trust you're enjoying the event?Person B: Yes, it's been wonderful so far.Person A: That's great. Well, I'll let you get back to your conversation. It was a pleasure to catch up.Person B: Likewise.Scenario 3: Greeting a Friend on the Phone.Person A: Hello?Person B: Hey, is this John?Person A: Yeah, this is John. Who's this?Person B: It's me, Sarah!Person A: Oh, hey Sarah! What's up?Person B: Not much, just wanted to say hi. How are you? Person A: I'm doing good, thanks. What about you?Person B: I'm doing great.Scenario 4: Texting a Friend.Person A: Hey, what's up?Person B: Not much, just chilling.Person A: Cool. I'm bored, want to hang out?Person B: Sure, where do you want to go?Person A: How about the movies?Person B: Sounds good to me.Scenario 5: Encountering a Friend While Traveling.Person A: Excuse me, do you mind if I sit here?Person B: Not at all. Go ahead.Person A: Thanks. (Sits down)。
关于疫情的英语情景对话
关于疫情的英语情景对话Scenario 1:A: Have you heard about the latest updates on the pandemic?B: Yes, it's quite concerning. The number of cases seems to be increasing rapidly.A: I know, it's really worrying. I wonder if there will be any new restrictions put in place.B: I wouldn't be surprised. It's important for everyone to follow the guidelines to prevent the spread of the virus.Scenario 2:A: How are you coping with the pandemic situation?B: It's been challenging, but I'm trying my best to stay positive.I've been following all the safety measures.A: That's great to hear. It's important to take care of ourselves and those around us.B: Definitely. It's also important to stay informed but not overwhelmed by all the news about the pandemic.Scenario 3:A: I heard that the vaccine distribution has begun. Have you considered getting vaccinated?B: Yes, I've been reading about it. I think it's a crucial step towards ending the pandemic.A: I agree. It's a relief to know that there is finally a solution in sight.B: Absolutely. Hopefully, everyone will have access to the vaccine soon and we can return to a sense of normalcy.Scenario 4:A: I'm really worried about the economic impact of the pandemic. B: I understand. Many businesses have been struggling, and people have lost their jobs.A: Yes, it's heartbreaking to see the impact on livelihoods. I hope the situation improves soon.B: Let's hope so. In the meantime, supporting local businesses and helping those in need can make a difference.Scenario 5:A: How do you think the pandemic will shape the future?B: It's hard to say for sure, but I think it will have long-lasting effects on various aspects of our lives.A: I agree. Remote work and virtual events might become more common even after the pandemic.B: And hopefully, it will also remind us of the importance of global cooperation in times of crisis.。
scenario runner原理
scenario runner原理Scenario Runner原理解析概述Scenario Runner 是一种用于自动化测试的工具，它可以模拟和运行多个测试用例，以验证软件或系统在各种场景下的可靠性和性能。
本文将从浅入深，详细解释Scenario Runner的相关原理。
原理解析1. 测试用例定义Scenario Runner 的核心原理之一是通过定义测试用例来描述系统的各种场景。
测试用例是一组有序的操作序列，每个操作代表一个用户或系统的行为。
通过编写测试用例，可以模拟各种用户场景和系统交互。
2. 场景配置文件在 Scenario Runner 中，测试用例是通过场景配置文件进行定义的。
场景配置文件是一个文本文件，其中包含了测试用例的描述、预期结果以及其他相关信息。
通过编写场景配置文件，可以方便地管理和组织大量的测试用例。
执行器是 Scenario Runner 的核心组件之一，它根据场景配置文件中定义的操作序列，逐步执行测试用例。
执行器会模拟用户的行为，通过与被测系统进行交互，验证系统在不同场景下的表现。
4. 数据驱动Scenario Runner 支持数据驱动测试，即通过在场景配置文件中引用数据文件来传递参数。
数据文件可以是文本文件、CSV文件或者数据库。
通过数据驱动，可以更加灵活和高效地执行大量的测试用例。
5. 常用断言在执行测试用例的过程中，Scenario Runner 提供了丰富的断言方法，用于验证系统的状态或结果是否符合预期。
常用的断言方法包括判断返回值、判断页面元素是否存在、判断日志输出等。
总结本文从概述、测试用例定义、场景配置文件、执行器、数据驱动和常用断言等方面对Scenario Runner的原理进行了详细解析。
了解Scenario Runner的原理对于开发人员和测试人员来说至关重要，它可以帮助提高测试的效率和可靠性，从而保证软件和系统的质量。
6. 并发执行Scenario Runner 支持并发执行多个测试用例，以加快测试速度和提升效率。
使用Cucumber进行BDD的自动化测试
使用Cucumber进行BDD的自动化测试自动化测试是现代软件开发中不可或缺的一环，它可以大大提高测试效率和准确性。
而行为驱动开发（BDD）则是一种基于需求和业务规范的开发方法，有助于软件团队更好地理解和满足客户需求。
Cucumber作为一种BDD工具，可以帮助开发人员和测试人员更好地沟通，提高开发质量和产品稳定性。
本文将介绍如何使用Cucumber进行BDD的自动化测试。
一、Cucumber简介Cucumber是一个开源的BDD工具，它支持多种开发语言，如Java、Ruby等。
Cucumber以自然语言的方式描述系统的行为，并自动生成可执行的测试代码。
开发人员可以通过Cucumber提供的关键字和语法规则编写测试用例，然后通过运行Cucumber测试框架执行这些测试用例。
Cucumber通过解析Gherkin语法文件来生成可执行代码，Gherkin语法是一种类似于自然语言的DSL（领域特定语言），它能够清晰地表达出需求和测试场景。
二、设置Cucumber环境在开始使用Cucumber进行自动化测试之前，我们需要安装并设置Cucumber的开发环境。
首先，我们需要安装Java Development Kit （JDK），然后根据项目需要选择对应的Cucumber版本，并在项目中添加相关的依赖库。
接下来，我们需要创建一个Cucumber项目，并编写Cucumber的配置文件。
在配置文件中，我们可以设置Cucumber的一些参数，如测试报告的输出路径、测试数据的路径等。
最后，我们需要创建一个Cucumber的运行类，用于执行Cucumber测试。
三、编写Cucumber测试用例在使用Cucumber进行自动化测试时，我们需要编写一些关键字和语法规则来描述测试场景和预期结果。
通常情况下，Cucumber测试用例由三个部分组成：Feature、Scenario和Step。
Feature用于描述一个被测试系统的功能或需求，它由一组相关的Scenario组成。
情景分析法
1 情景分析的概念及其特点“情景”(Scenario)最早出现于1967年HermanKahn和Wiener合著的《2000年》一书中。
他们认为:未来是多样的,几种潜在的结果都有可能在未来实现;通向这种或那种未来结果的途径也不是唯一的,对可能出现的未来以及实现这种未来的途径的描述构成一个情景。
“情景”就是对未来情形以及能使事态由初始状态向未来状态发展的一系列事实的描述。
基于“情景”的“情景分析法”(ScenarioAnalysis)是在对经济、产业或技术的重大演变提出各种关键假设的基础上,通过对未来详细地、严密地推理和描述来构想未来各种可能的方案。
情景分析法的最大优势是使管理者能发现未来变化的某些趋势和避免两个最常见的决策错误:过高或过低估计未来的变化及其影响。
情景分析法在西方已有好几十年的历史。
该方法最早用在军事上,20世纪40年代末,美国兰德公司的国防分析员对核武器可能被敌对国家利用的各种情形加以描述,这是情景分析法的开始。
到20世纪70年代,兰德公司在为美国国防部就导弹防御计划做咨询时进一步发展了该方法。
今天,许多世界著名的跨国公司,如美国的壳牌石油公司、德国的BASF公司、戴母勒-奔驰公司、美国的波音公司等在制定战略规划时都使用该方法。
一些国家政府也采用了该方法,如南非白人政府的种族隔离制度的和平变革,就是利用该方法推导了各种选择可能的结果之后做出的选择。
根据国外一些学者的研究,情景分析具有以下本质特点:a.承认未来的发展是多样化的,有多种可能发展的趋势,其预测结果也将是多维的。
b.承认人在未来发展中的“能动作用”,把分析未来发展中决策者的群体意图和愿望作为情景分析中的一个重要方面,并在情景分析过程中与决策者之间保持畅通的信息交流。
c.在情景分析中,特别注意对组织发展起重要作用的关键因素和协调一致性关系的分析。
d.情景分析中的定量分析与传统趋势外推型的定量分析区别在于: 情景分析在定量分析中嵌入了大量的定性分析,以指导定量分析的进行,所以是一种融定性与定量分析于一体的新预测方法。
cucumbergherkinbackground用法
cucumbergherkinbackground用法Cucumber Gherkin是一种行为驱动开发（BDD）框架，它使用一种简单易懂的语法来描述软件系统的行为。
Gherkin是一种用自然语言编写的领域特定语言（DSL），它允许开发人员、非技术人员和业务利益相关者共同参与软件开发过程。
Gherkin语法的核心组成部分是“Feature”，它描述了软件系统的一个具体功能或需求。
每个Feature可以包含多个“Scenario”，每个Scenario则描述了该功能的一个具体测试场景。
在Gherkin中，Feature和Scenario的结构很重要，因为它定义了与开发和测试人员共享的“黄金故事”。
而在BDD中，Background是一种特殊的Scenario，它用于在每个Scenario之前运行一组共享的步骤。
Background通常用于准备测试环境或设置测试数据，从而避免在每个Scenario中重复编写这些步骤。
Background的语法与Scenario相似，但其关键字为“Background”。
下面是一个示例：```Feature: 计算器功能想要使用计算器的功能，我希望能进行数学运算。
Background:假设我已经打开计算器应用程序Scenario: 加法测试当我输入两个数字：2和3那么我应该看到结果为：5Scenario: 减法测试当我输入两个数字：9和4那么我应该看到结果为：5```在上面的示例中，Background定义了一个“假设”步骤，即打开计算器应用程序。
这意味着在每个Scenario执行之前，都会先执行这个步骤。
在每个Scenario中，我们只关注具体的数学运算，而不需要重复编写打开应用程序的步骤。
通过使用Background，我们能够在每个Scenario中共享通用的步骤，从而使测试场景更加简洁和可维护。
当我们需要修改这些通用步骤时，只需要在Background中进行修改，而不需要在每个Scenario中都修改一遍。
职场实用英语交际教程(初级)教学课件unit10
Set the task
Language in focus
1. Complete the sentences with the correct form of the words in the box. represent pressing overview
1) This file gives us a(n)___o_v_e_r_v_ie_w___ of the company’s development. 2) Lily didn’t go to the party because she had some __p_r_e_s_s_si_n_g___matters to deal with. 3) Jenny is our company’s sales ____re_p_r_e_s_en_t_a_t_iv_e___ in Italy, and she needs to cooperate
2. Jack Wayne, Director of the Sales Department, asks Wang Rui, a sales representative, to write an order confirmation email to Ms Smith. representative /reprɪ'zentətɪv/ n. 代表 e.g. John delivered a speech as a student representative in the graduation ceremony. 在毕业典礼上，约翰作为学生代表发表了演讲。
职场实用英语交际教程（初级）——Unit 10
Set the task
Jack is talking to Wang Rui about the new order from their UK client. Listen to their conversation and get a clear idea of the task given to Wang Rui.
Scenario Planning情景规划
U n d e r s t a n d i n g t h e p r e s e n t , p r e p a r i n g f o r t h e f u t u r eS c e n a r i o P l a n n i n gO v e r v i e wWhen establishing a strategic direction and a set of priorities that will guide decision makers, few techniques are as powerful as scenario planning. Scenarios are perspectives on potential events and their consequences, providing a context in which managers can make decisions. By contemplating a range of possible futures, decisions are better informed, and a strategy based on this deeper insight is more likely to succeed.Scenarios help managers tackle risk, uncertainty and complexity. Scenario planning enables organisations to rehearse the future, to walk the battlefield before battle commences so that they are better prepared. Their value lies not in a prediction of the future, but in their ability to recognise and understand future developments, enabling managers to influence events.Scenario thinking has been used by the military for centuries and by organisations such as RoyalDutch/Shell since the 1960s. According to Kees van der Heijden, formerly Professor of Strategy at Strathclyde Graduate School of Business: “Scenario planning is neither an episodic activity nor a newtechnique: it is a way of thinking that works best when it permeates the entire organisation, affecting decisions at all levels. However, unlike most popular management initiatives, it does not require major investment in resources or restructuring, simply a commitment for people to take time away from their routine activities to come together to reflect and learn.”T h e B e n e f i t sUnderstanding the present. Scenariothinking helps provide a betterunderstanding of how different factorsaffecting a business affect each other. Itcan reveal linkages between apparentlyunrelated factors and, most importantly,it can provide greater insight into theforces shaping the future, delivering real competitive advantage. Overcoming complacency. Scenariosshould be designed to challengeestablished views, overcoming‘business‐as‐usual’ thinking andenabling established formulas and newideas to be tested. Seeing reality fromdifferent perspectives mitigates thepitfalls of groupthink, procrastination,hindsight bias, bolstering commitmentto failing strategies and shiftingresponsibility.Promoting action and ownership ofthe strategy process. Scenario thinkinghelps break the constraints on traditional strategic practices as it enables those involved to discuss the complexity and ambiguity of their perspectives in a wide context. Stimulating creativity and innovation. Scenarios encourage the opening of minds to new possibilities and the excitement of how they may be realised. The process leads to a positive attitude that actively seeks the desired outcome.Promoting learning. Scenarios helppeople to understand theirenvironment, consider the future, shareknowledge and evaluate strategic options. Information is better evaluated and integrated in the scenario planning process, which enables those involved in it to recognise and react to emerging circumstances.Creating a shared view. Scenariothinking works because it looks beyondcurrent assignments, facts andforecasts. It allows discussions to bemore uninhibited and it creates theconditions for a genuinely effectiveshared sense of purpose to evolve.Getting support for strategic decisionsrequires involving those that matter inthe scenario planning process.A c t i o n C h e c k l i s t:S c e n a r i o P l a n n i n gThe scenario thinking process is not oneof linear implementation, itseffectiveness lies in stimulatingdecisions, what is termed the strategic conversation. This is the continuousprocess of planning, analysing theenvironment, generating and testingscenarios, developing options, selecting,refining and implementing – a processthat is itself refined with furtherenvironmental analysis.P l a n n i n g a n d s t r u c t u r i n g t h es c e n a r i o p r o c e s sThe first stage is to identify gaps inorganisational knowledge that relatespecifically to business challengeswhose impact on the organisation isuncertain. To do this, create a team toplan and structure the process. Theteam should probably come fromoutside the organisation and its members should be noted for their creative thinking and ability to challenge conventional ideas. An external team is better placed to provide objective support, free from internal agendas or tensions. In discussion with the team, then decideon the duration of the project; tenweeks is considered appropriate for abig project.Scenarios may not predict the future but they do illuminate the causes of change – helping managers to take greatercontrol when conditions shift. What determines an organisation’s success is not simply how much it knows, but how it reacts to what it does not know.E x p l o r i n g t h e s c e n a r i o c o n t e x t Team members should be interviewedto highlight the main views and toassess if these ideas are shared betweendifferent team members. Questionsshould focus on vital issues such assources of customer value, the currentsuccess formula and future challenges,identifying how each individual views the past, present and future aspects ofeach issue. The interview statementsshould be collated and analysed in aninterview report, structured around therecurring concepts and key themes. Thisnow sets the agenda for the firstworkshop and should be sent to allparticipants. It is also valuable toidentify the critical uncertainties andissues, as perceived by the participants,as a starting point for the workshop.D e v e l o p i n g t h e s c e n a r i o sThe workshop should identify the forcesthat will have an impact over an agreedperiod. Two possible opposite outcomesshould be agreed and the forces that could lead to each of them should be listed. This will help to show how these forces link together. Next, decide whether each of these forces have a low or high impact and a low or high probability. This information should be displayed on a 2 X 2 matrix.By having two polar outcomes and allthe driving forces clearly presented, theteam can then develop the likely‘histories’ – or scenarios – that led toeach outcome. These histories of thefuture can then be expanded throughdiscussion of the forces behind thechanges. The aim is not to develop accurate predictions, it is to understand what will shape the future and how different events interact and influence each other. All the time, discussions are focused on each scenario’s impact on the organisation.This part of the process opens up thethinking of the members in the teamand it makes them alert to signals thatmay suggest a particular direction forthe organisation. The outcomes of different responses are ‘tested’ in the safety of scenario planning, avoiding the risk of implementing a strategy for real.A n a l y s i n g t h e s c e n a r i o sThe analysis stage examines the external issues and internal logic.Consider:•What are the priorities and concerns of those outside theorganisation, who are alsoresponsible for the maindecisions in the scenario?•Who are the other stakeholders?•Who are the key players and do they change?•Would they really act and make decisions in the way described?Systems and process diagrams can help address these questions, as can discussions with other stakeholders.Remember, we are not trying to pinpoint future events but to consider the forces that may push the future along different paths.U s i n g t h e s c e n a r i o sWorking backwards from the future to the present, the team should formulate an action plan that can influence the It is impossible to manageeffectively in the short-term without forming a medium andlong-term view of the future.Doing the wrong thing, evenefficiently, gets you nowhere. There are two things we can say for certain about the future. It will be different – and it will surprise.organisation’s thinking. Next, it shouldidentify the early signs of change so thatwhen they do occur, they will berecognised and responded to quicklyand effectively. The process thencontinues by identifying gaps inorganisational knowledge. Theparticipatory and creative process sensitises managers to the outsideworld. It helps individuals and teams torecognise the uncertainties in theiroperating environments so that theycan question their everydayassumptions, adjust their mental mapsand think ‘outside the box’.A v o i d i n g P r o b l e m sPeople who work with scenarios find it to be exciting, valuable and enjoyable. It can also lead to a tangible and significant result: a shift in attitude, as well as greater certainty, confidence and understanding. However, it is necessary to keep in mind some of the problems that may arise such as: Misunderstanding what it is that the scenarios are intended to achieve. Scenarios are not predictions, they are a guide to understanding what possible futures lie ahead and what forces may be at work – now and in the future – to make these futures a reality.Failing to create or explore scenarios that are either viable or sufficiently imaginative. Too often people rely on in‐house views, traditional perceptions and internal problems – the resulting scenarios are then too narrowly focused or close to home.Failing to adopt a rigorous, intelligent and informed approach. Scenario planning begins with deep and thorough analysis and understanding of the present.Ignoring, downgrading or simply failing to act on the scenarios. Make sure that scenarios are rigorous and give them status, for example, by off‐site meetings, high‐level sponsors and management feedback. Also, use the scenarios to drive decision‐making bystimulating debate. They should be usedto develop strategy, test business orproject plans and manage risk.Failing to communicate the scenario, with the result that it does not becomeembedded within thinking or decision‐making. Instead, use imaginative and frequent communications to embedscenario thinking into discussion anddecisions.Misunderstanding the link betweenshortterm and longterm successand prosperity. If management orientsthe business towards a successfulfuture, that automatically points thecompany towards opportunities forenhanced profitability, productivity andcustomer satisfaction in the short‐term.Remember, short‐term victories won atthe expense of the future inevitably endup as defeats.K e y Q u e s t i o n s•What are the crucial questions facing the organisation, thequestions whose answers imply: Iwish I had known this five yearsago?•Do current strategic approaches typify traditional, ‘business‐as‐usual’ thinking? Are you prepared toaccept that a strategy is failing or isvulnerable?•Is the organisation in touch with market developments and the needsof customers?•Are you prepared to challenge your confidence in existing orthodoxy?•Is any part of your organisational planning weak and lacking cleardirection?•Do you lack confidence in your ability to engage in strategic debate?•In your decision‐making process do you, as a matter of routine, alwaysconsider multiple options beforedeciding? Is the quality of yourstrategic thinking limited, narrow and uninspired?•Is your organisation afraid of uncertainty, or does it enjoy thinking about it? Do people see it as a threat or as an opportunity? Is it recognised as a potential source of competitive advantage?D o s a n d D o n’t sDo:•Involve people at all levels of the organisation.•Ensure that scenarios are relevant.•Critically assess each scenario and keep the process focused, relevant and valuable.•Ensure that the process is not over‐shadowed by operational pressures, as these can limit energy and creativity.Do not:•Try to predict the future; instead, try to understand the forces that will shape it.•Allow existing biases to guide the process.•Discourage creative thinking.•Ignore or downgrade the insights, instead relate them to the organisation’s future.T h i n g s Y o u C a n D oScenarios are tools for examining possible futures. This gives them a clear advantage over techniques that may be based on a view of the past. In a rapidly changing and largely unpredictable environment, assessing possible futures is one of the best ways to promote responsiveness and directed policy. The following activities can be done with members of your team:Ask team members for their ‘histories of the future’: how things will look (say in five year’s time) andhow we reached that point. Allow oneor two days for people to developscenarios based on existing informationwithin the company. Use scenarios tostimulate debate, develop resilientstrategies and test business plansagainst possible futures.Hold workshops offsite to allowoptimum reflection and absorptiontime. For a single capital project, tryback‐of‐the‐envelope calculations tocapture the essential differences in theviability of alternatives. To assess thelikelihood of a scenario coming true, useearly indicators—events that should beseen in the next year or so. Communicate scenarios graphically,for example, by imaginary newspaperswritten as if in the future, day‐in‐the‐lifestories, film or glossy booklets. Activities that you can completeyourself to plan for the future include: 1.Regularly reading trade andbusiness publications focusing onyour industry, finance, business,politics and economics (for example,the Financial Times, The Economist,Fortune, BusinessWeek).2.Maintaining and reviewinginformation on economic, social,technological and governmental andregulatory trends.3.Delivering to your boss, peersand/or team members apresentation on the major changes(technological, socio‐economic,regulatory and commercial) likely to affect your business over the nextthree years. This could coincidewith the annual planning cycle orcontribute to a strategic plan. Thepresentation should:•Quantify the potential impact of potential changes.•Detail your actions to meet these changes.•Be prepared regularly (twice each year).Keep informed and uptodate by joining a professional membership or trade association. These are especially valuable for networking and attending seminars. Also, find a relevant website and subscribe to their email alerts.F u r t h e r A c t i o nUse the following table to identify areas for further development.Issue Response Further actionDo you think activelyabout the future? What arethe main issues,challenges, opportunitiesand priorities?Do you understand howdifferent circumstancescould affect your businessin the future?Does your organisationencourage creativity anddebate when discussing thefuture?Do you formulate scenariosformally – building modelsand assigning each adifferent probability – orinformally – using themmerely as a base to guidesensible actions?F u r t h e r I n f o r m a t i o nB o o k sScenario Planning: Managing for the Future, G. Ringland, John Wiley & Sons Ltd The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World, P. Schwartz, John Wiley & Sons LtdThe Sixth Sense: Accelerating Organisational Learning With Scenarios, K. van der Heijden, R. Bradfield, G. Burt, G. Cairns and G. Wright, John Wiley & Sons LtdO n l i n e i n f o r m a t i o n is provided by the Economist Intelligence Unit, part of The Economist Group, offering insights into business, politics, economics and technology. In particular, it also provides leading‐edge information about selected major industries. offers a wealth of links useful for business research covering news, magazines, markets and companies, banking and finance, international business, government information, reference guides, office tools, and travel. It also has an Industry Centre with news, information and links relevant to specific sectors. is provided by Michigan State University and features the Resource Desk, a collection of links to international business, finance, and trade sites on the Web, as well as articles, reports, and community facilities that include a discussion forum, chat room and e‐mail list. features Ideas@Work with content taken from the Harvard Business Review and grouped by subject, the full text of articles being available on a pay‐per‐view basis. is an excellent collection of resources provided by the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania. Resources covering current business trends and ideas are arranged in 14 subject areas from finance and investment to business ethics. Brief summaries, short articles, academic papers and links to relevant websites are included.O r g a n i s a t i o n sCentre for Scenario Planning and Future Studies. The centre, based in the Graduate School of Business at the University of Strathclyde in Glasgow, UK, provides information, courses and advice about scenario planning.。
“Scenario”方法的认识与应用
“Scenario”方法的认识与应用
王艳
【期刊名称】《大观周刊》
【年(卷),期】2011(000)027
【摘要】我们认识“scenario”方法的目的就在于更好的应用它。
作为决策过程中一个重要的阶段性方法，将“scenario”方法引入产品设计的教学中是非常有意义的，它以自己独特的图像表达方法，生动有趣地引导学生积极主动地思考解决问题的办法，使学生不再像以前仅凭文字描述来凭空想象，而是以更加具象的图形故事作为彼此交流的媒介。
【总页数】4页(P82-85)
【作者】王艳
【作者单位】山东工艺美术学院工业设计学院,山东济南250014
【正文语种】中文
【中图分类】G652
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Recently John Lee moved to a new house which is a big house with a wide garden.Nevertheless, there are lots of sunshine during the whole year. So, he want to plant a tree in his garden so that he and his families can rest in the shade.
John downloads and opens Trees4Me app. On the first page, there are some interesting news, tips, and specials.
On the right top of the page, there are “Login” and “Register” button, John presses the “Register”.
A new register page displayed to John and he completes after filling the username, email address, and passport.
Then back to the first page, right top of page becomeusername and a shopping cartsign.
However, John has no idea what he wants so that he does n’t know what tree’s name he should input the searching bar.
In order to narrow the searching area, John selects evergreen as tree category, medium as soil drainage, Sunny as sun, low maintenance requirements, >3m as max height of mature tree, slow growth rate.
The app displays a new list for John, and then John checks one item of tree.
There have a new page with detailed information and picture of tree displayed for John.
In order to know whether the tree is suitable for his garden, John takes a picture of his garden and upload it to the app, and he drags a photo of the tree into his garden and changes the age of tree.
Until he finds thatfour-years-old pine tree is what he wants, he presses “Add to cart” button and that tree is added in his shopping cart, and there is a tip for him to ask whether he needs to buy garden-related products and other “partner” treewith a “Click here” button at the end.
John presses the button, the app display a new page with the garden-related products such as potting mix, fertilizer,and snail bait also has some “partner” trees which are all suitable for that pine tree.
John selects 4kg fertilizer and presses “Add to cart”button, these fertilizer also be added in shopping cart.
John thinks there are no other things need, so he presses the shopping cart sign on the right top of the app.
A new page with a table lists all his goods what he wants to buy, after confirming the goods, John presses “Buy” button.
A new page displayed to John and there is a form needed to be filled in. John needs to input his personal information including name, telephone number, email address, home address, and then he should select the delivery or pick up. John chooses the delivery and the speed he chooses in one week.
Then there is a tip displayed that $100 delivery fee need to paid, and Johns press “Yes”
A new table with the fee of allgoods John has bought, the delivery fee and total fee, and the personal information John has filled displayed to let him confirm. John makes sure all is right and presses the “Pay” button.
Then a paying page displayed to John and the payment types including major credit cards and Paypal online. John chooses credit card and fillsthe credit card information. And then John presses “Confirm” button to complete the paying.
Then John receives an email to tell him that the order has confirmed, and some after-sale service such as prune and check the health of the tree would be provided to him in one year.
Five days later….
John receives the tree and fertilizer, and then he logins the trees4Me gives five stars praise to this transaction.
In the next one month, John receives lots of emails to tell him how to maintain the tree in good health, the best conditions for it to grow and some interesting facts.
One year later…
John receives an email to suggest himfeed the tree, and tell him if he feels there is something wrong with the tree, he can send a photo of tree to them.。