Nuclear Proliferation 核扩散

Nuclear Deterrence
• US-Soviet Style – MAD – Large megaton bombs – Second strike capabilities – High levels of communication – Lack of deep-seeded hatred among populations • Indo-Pakistani Style – MAD? – Smaller megaton bombs – Pakistani second strike uncertain – Low levels of communication – Deep-seeded hatred among populations
Is the US Doing Enough to Stop Proliferation
No • In a post 9/11 world, the treat of terrorists using a nuclear bomb has become real • The US spends only $1 bil a year on the CTR to make existing weapons facilities more secure, in contract to its $500 bil military expenditure and its $80 bil spent in Iraq • The focus of these efforts are in the former Soviet satellites and Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan and Belarus. • US needs to deal with the most urgent potential source of supply to terrorists first, N. Korea, Pakistan and Iran. • The US has not safe guarded its own materials it handed out for peaceful research to 43 countries, requiring return in original form or spent fuel and has not sought accountability on that
Should the US engage or contain IrБайду номын сангаасn?
Contain • Iran continues to stave over international sanctions • Hard-line government is a direct threat to US and its Israeli ally • Iran reneged on agreements with the EU-3 once it felt that its bargaining position had increased due to oil prices • Ahmadinejad’s a loose cannon and can’t be trusted • Iran’s economy is deteriorating and is likely to worsen due to domestic plans to redistribute oil wealth to more of the nations poor, causing business men to move large sums of money overseas • US should prepare for the use of force demonstrating a strong military posture to dissuade and deter Iran from fielding a nuclear weapon and sponsoring terrorism as it did in Iraq and Lebanon • US should
Ideal Non-Proliferation Treaty
Graham Allison says the ideal non-proliferation treaty will contain the 3 “no’s” • No loose nukes-weapons and materials must be protected to a new security standard adequate to prevent nuclear terrorists from attacking us • No new nascent nukes- Bar new production of highly enriched uranium and plutonium • No new nuclear weapons- Accept no new nuclear power, including N. Korea and Iran
Is the US Doing Enough to Stop Proliferation
Yes • The US is funding half of the CTR, with France, Britain, Germany, Japan, Italy and Canada combining to fund the other half of $2 bil a year • The US took out one of the largest threats to nuclear proliferation, Saddam Hussain • The US continues to engage in regimes to reduce the spread of nuclear weapons, NPT, CTR (1993) and SORT (2002) • Bush and Putin launched the Global Initiative to Combat Nuclear Terrorism • Bush proposed the Proliferation Security Initiative in 2003
• Support for domestic regime is likely to wane once Iran begins to develop when sanctions are lifted, with sanctions, Iranian leaders can easily point to the US as a threat and build support • Find common ground with Iran on the following issues:
Should the US engage or contain Iran?
Engage • Iran is not likely to continue its pursuit of nuclear arms if:
– the US reduces the fear it poses to Iran – Iran serves to gain more with eliminated sanctions than possessing nuclear arms
Is the Non-Proliferation Treaty still Effective?
Yes • The NPT is supposed to be a CBM • It has led to other treaties such as the CTR and may lead to others • Has built confidence aiding in the passage of the SORT reductions
• Third world style
– Irrational North Korea – Apocalypto Muslim Iran
Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty
• Treaty calls for states to cease and desist any ambitions for a nuclear weapons program • In exchange for this, the permitted nuclear powers under the NPT will aid in the development of nuclear programs from peaceful purposes in the signatories state
State of Nuclear Arsenal
Declared Nuclear Powers Allowed under NPT • US (9,000) • Russia (18,000) • UK (185) • France (350) • China (410) Non-NPT Signatories • India (95) • Israel (200) • Pakistan (52) • N. Korea (10???) Had Nuclear weapons and gave them up for NPT • South Africa
Is the Non-Proliferation Treaty still Effective?
No • There is not universal adherence to the treaty • It can secure 90% of nuclear material at a very high level, but the other 10% is vulnerable, as is evidence by the black nuclear trade of Khan • Other powers like India and Pakistan decided to forgo the treaty and develop a nuclear weapons program • The treaty had weak verification and enforcement provisions, the UN was surprised to find that Hussain was secretly developing nuclear weapons in the 90’s. • The treaty was designed to control states, not individuals or terrorist cells