麦肯锡《能源》2016-145 期(2)

ENERGY
Vol.145,2016
·oil
·natural gas
·wind
·solar
·biofuels
·ore
·coal
·electricity
·water
·nuclear energy
·new energy
Mcanxixun Information and News Service
Mcanxixun Information
Contents
INDUSTRY OUTLOOK 行业展望 (4)
Annual Energy Outlook (年度展望) (4)
A VIEW TO 2040 (4)
(Exxon Mobil Corporation) (4)
2015能源展望（埃克森美孚公司） (4)
BP ENERGY OUTLOOK 2030 (4)
(British Petroleum Company) (4)
2015能源展望（英国石油公司） (4)
GLOBAL ENERGY OUTLOOK (4)
(PLATTS) (4)
全球能源展望（普氏咨询） (4)
Annual Energy Outlook 2013 With Projections to 2040 (4)
(U.S. Energy Information Administration) (4)
2015年能源展望全文（美国能源署） (4)
WORD ENERGY OUTLOOK (5)
(IEA: International Energy Agency) (5)
2015世界能源展望（国际能源署） (5)
CHINA ENERGY OUTLOOK (5)
（Energy Research Institute,National Development and Reform Commission） (5)
中国能源展望（发改委） (5)
Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) (5)
(U.S. Energy Information Administration) (5)
短期能源展望（美国能源署） (5)
Global Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels (5)
全球原油和液体燃料 (5)
U.S. Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels (5)
美国原油和液体燃料 (5)
Natural Gas (5)
天然气 (6)
Coal (6)
煤炭 (6)
Electricity (6)
电力 (6)
Renewables and Carbon Dioxide Emissions (6)
可再生能源和二氧化碳的排放 (6)
U.S. Economic Assumptions (6)
美国经济假设 (6)
1
Mcanxixun Information
2Chart Gallery (6)
图表库 (6)
INDUSTRY NEWS 行业动态 (6)
Oil（石油） (6)
Tycoon pumps $1bn into Canada‘s Husky Energy (6)
李嘉诚向加拿大赫斯基能源注资13亿美元 (7)
‗Teapot‘ refiners look to bypass middlemen (8)
中国独立炼油厂参与全球石油交易 (8)
New Energy（新能源） (9)
Wind generation growth slowed in 2015 as wind speeds declined in key regions (9)
2015年重点地区风速下降使风力发电增长放缓 (12)
Down on the farm (13)
走进天津农业光伏园区 (15)
California passes bill to level residential solar playing field (17)
加州通过法案为住宅太阳能创造公平竞争环境 (18)
New Arizona initiative seeks to amend state Constitution to protect solar (18)
亚利桑那州新计划旨在修订该州宪法以保护太阳能 (19)
Natural Gas（天然气） (19)
Nigeria may lose status among world‘s largest LNG exporters – expert (19)
专家称，尼日利亚或失去世界最大液化天然气出口国之一的地位 (20)
South Korea cuts natural gas rates by 6% on lower LNG import costs (20)
韩国液化天然气进口成本降低液化天然气价格降低6% (21)
Total boosts European natural gas output in Q1; LNG sales, prices dip (21)
欧洲一季度天然气输出增加；天然气销售额和价格下降 (22)
Israel, Greece, Cyprus mull joint natural gas projects (22)
以色列、希腊、塞浦路斯考虑联合天然气项目 (23)
GAIL India to swap US LNG (24)
印度燃气交换美国液化天然气 (25)
Minerals（矿产） (25)
Union Drops Effort to Restrict U.S. Imports of Raw Aluminum (25)
美国工会撤回限制铝进口请愿行动 (26)
Min ing threatens Mongolia‘s fragile environmental balance (27)
采矿正在“耗干”蒙古 (29)
Anglo American to sell phosphate unit to China Molybdenum (31)
洛阳钼业与英美资源集团达成收购协议 (32)
China venture seeks western assets in $4bn quest for acquisitions (32)
洛阳钼业正寻求更多收购机会 (33)
Glencore looks at sale of Kazakh gold mine as it steps up moves to cut debt (33)
嘉能可考虑出售哈萨克斯坦金矿 (34)
China‘s Steel Makers Undercut Rivals as Economy Slows (34)
中国钢材冲击欧美，贸易规则即将改写 (37)
Mcanxixun Information Clean Energy（清洁能源） (39)
Ukraine cannot stop using nuclear energy, but must think of new energy solutions (39)
乌克兰不能停止核能，但必须思考新能源 (39)
Shanghai‘s sprawling industrial base will have to shoulder CO2 cuts (39)
上海：拥抱工业的低碳转型 (41)
World business leaders demand an end to fossil fuels subsidies (43)
世界各国经济领导人呼吁取消化石燃料补贴 (45)
China and US should lead fossil fuel subsidies reform at G20 (46)
中美将在G20峰会推进化石燃料补贴改革 (49)
Coal（煤炭） (51)
China Bans Some New Coal Power Plants, Spelling More Bad News For A Troubled Industry (51)
中国禁止新建某些煤电厂 (52)
Traders fear liquidity squeeze in South African coal market (53)
交易员担心南非煤炭市场流动性紧缩 (55)
Japan fiscal 2016-17 thermal coal price settles lower at $61.60/mt FOB Newcastle: Sources (57)
日本2016至2017财年热能煤价格定为$61.60/吨 (57)
Trading volumes for US thermal coal futures move higher in March: CME Group (58)
美国芝加哥商品交易所热能煤期货交易量在三月份有所上涨 (58)
Polish Q1 2016 seaborne thermal coal exports rise 64.2% (59)
2016年第一季度波兰热能煤海运出口总量增长64.2% (59)
South Korean buyer forges new buying strategy for Colombian (59)
韩国热能煤买家为哥伦比亚制定全新采购策略 (60)
Vietnam Vinacomin's Q1 coal sales rise 6% on higher demand from power plants (61)
发电厂需求增大，越南Vinacomin企业第一季度煤炭销量上升6% (61)
China Curbs Plans for More Coal-Fired Power Plants (62)
中国出台限制煤电新政策 (63)
Coal mining giant Peabody files for bankruptcy protection but claims market will stabilise (64)
煤炭巨头Peabody申请破产保护但称市场将稳定 (66)
Electricity（电力） (67)
Vattenfall CEO says Germany's proposed nuclear risk premium 'too high' (67)
瓦腾福（Vattenfall）首席执行官说德国提出的核风险溢价过高 (68)
Shutting Australia‘s dirtiest coal plant would have ―negligible‖ impact on power prices: RepuTex (69)
关闭澳大利亚的肮脏的煤电厂对电价的影响“可以忽略不计” (70)
100% Renewable Electricity For South Australia By 2030, Greens Propose (71)
南澳大利亚绿党提出，在2030年前，实现100%可再生能源发电 (71)
New Graphene Solar Cell Makes Rain-Powered Electricity (72)
雨水供电的新型石墨烯太阳能电池 (74)
Renewable Generation Increased By 152 GW In 2015, According To IRENA (76)
IRENA表示，2015年可再生能源产能增长量达到152吉瓦 (77)
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Mcanxixun Information
INDUSTRY OUTLOOK 行业展望
Annual Energy Outlook (年度展望)
AVIEW TO 2040
(Exxon Mobil Corporation)
2015能源展望（埃克森美孚公司）
BP ENERGY OUTLOOK 2030
(British Petroleum Company)
2015能源展望（英国石油公司）
GLOBAL ENERGY OUTLOOK
(PLATTS)
全球能源展望（普氏咨询）
Annual Energy Outlook 2013 With Projections to 2040 (U.S. Energy Information Administration)
2015年能源展望全文（美国能源署）
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Mcanxixun Information WORD ENERGY OUTLOOK
(IEA: International Energy Agency)
2015世界能源展望（国际能源署）
CHINA ENERGY OUTLOOK
（Energy Research Institute,National Development and Reform Commission）
中国能源展望（发改委）
Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO)
(U.S. Energy Information Administration) 短期能源展望（美国能源署）
Global Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels
全球原油和液体燃料
U.S. Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels
美国原油和液体燃料
Natural Gas
5
Mcanxixun Information
6天然气
Coal
煤炭
Electricity
电力
Renewables and Carbon Dioxide Emissions
可再生能源和二氧化碳的排放
U.S. Economic Assumptions
美国经济假设
Chart Gallery
图表库
INDUSTRY NEWS 行业动态Oil（石油）
Tycoon pumps $1bn into Canada’s Husky Energy
Hong Kong tycoon Li Ka-shingis using two of his listed companies to inject $1.3bn into Canadian oil producer Husky Energy, as the fall in crude prices weighs on the group.
Mcanxixun Information Cheung Kong Infrastructure Holdings and Power Assets Holdings will buy a 65 per cent stake in oil storage assets with a capacity of 4.1m barrels of oil and 1,900km of pipeline in the Lloydminster region, the companies said yesterday.
CKI Holdings and cash-rich Power Assets are part of Mr Li‘s vast business empire that ranges from ports, property and energy assets in Asia to telecommunications businesses in Europe. Mr Li, who is Hong Kong‘s richest man, also holds a controlling 29.31 per cent stake in Husky Energy.
In the joint venture formed by the three companies, Husky will own 35 per cent, CKI Holdings 16.25 per cent and Power Assets 48.75 per cent.
The move was akin to a cash injection into the ailing oil producer, which reported its third consecutive quarter of losses on Monday, analysts noted.
US crude averaged $33.63 a barrel in the first three months of the year, according to Bloomberg, down from $48.57 a barrel a year earlier.
Power Assets shares traded down
2.8 per cent at HK$75.55 during afternoon trading in Hong Kong, while CKI was down 1.67 per cent at HK$7
3.70, both underperforming the Hang Seng index, which traded down 0.66 per cent.
“If you‘re cynical, you could say this is a ca sh injection into Husky. You could also say they are moving cash around,‖ said Simon Powell, a Hong Kong-based analyst at UBS.
Mr Powell said CKI and Power Assets did not overpay for the stake and that the investment could deliver a 4 per cent annual yield.
李嘉诚向加拿大赫斯基能源注资13亿美元
香港富豪李嘉诚(Li Ka-shing)正通过旗下两家上市公司向加拿大石油生产商赫斯基能源(Husky Energy)注入13亿美元。

原油价格下跌正给后者造成巨大压力。

相关公司昨日表示，长江基建(Cheung Kong Infrastructure)和电能实业(Power Assets Holdings)将买入劳埃德明斯特地区储油资产65%的股份，这些资产包括410万桶的石油储存能力和1900公里的输油管线。

从亚洲的港口、房地产和能源资产，到欧洲的电信企业，李嘉诚拥有庞大的商业帝国，长江基建和现金充裕的电能实业是这个商业帝国的组成部分。

身为香港首富的李嘉诚还持有赫斯基能源29.31%的控股股份。

在三家企业组建的合资企业中，赫斯基能源将持有35%的股份，长江基建将持有16.25%的股份，而电能实业将持有48.75%的股份。

分析师指出，此举相当于向这家问题缠身的石油生产商注入现金。

周一，该公司报告连续第三个季度出现亏损。

根据彭博(Bloomberg)的数据，今年第一季度美国原油价格为平均每桶33.63美元，低于一年前的每桶48.57美元。

在香港的下午盘交易期间，电能实业的股价下跌了2.8%，至每股75.55港币，而长江基建则下跌1.67%，至每股73.7港币。

两只股票的表现均逊于恒生指数(Hang Seng Index)，后者跌幅为0.66%。

瑞银(UBS)驻香港分析师西蒙•鲍威尔(Simon Powell)表示：“说话尖刻一点的人会说这是向赫斯基注入现金。

你也可以说他们在调动现金。

”
鲍威尔表示，长江基建和电能实业买入这些股份并未付出过高价格，而且这笔投资每年有望带来4%的收益。

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Mcanxixun Information
‘Teapot’ refiners look to bypass middl emen
China‘s independent refineries are becoming more assertive in global oil trading, procuring larger volumes of crude and buying it directly from the market.
The country‘s so-called ―teapot‖ refineries received some of the first import licenses last yea r as Beijing moved to boost investment in the energy industry, which has long been dominated by state oil companies Sinopecand PetroChina.
The teapots — which, despite their nickname, can be substantial buyers, together representing about a third of China‘s total oil refining capacity —have moved quickly to strike deals with some of the world‘s largest crude exporters and are finding ways to procure oil that bypasses international trading houses.
Last month Shandong Chambroad Petrochemicals Company bought a spot cargo of crude oil directly from Saudi Aramco—the state oil company of Opec‘s de facto leader and the world‘s largest exporter of crude.
Now, the company — one of 11 independent refineries permitted to import crude — will be the first teapot to trade on the Dubai Mercantile Exchange as it looks to hedge its imports and buy physical cargoes from Oman.
This approach by Shandong Chambroad, say some industry participants, suggests a shift away from the use of middlemen, whether it is big international o il traders or China‘s domestic oil industry giants.
The DME said the exchange will be approaching more independent Chinese refineries in the coming weeks and plans to hold a roundtable in the country in mid-May ―to assist other local participants‖.
The wor ld‘s biggest trading companies, which include Trafigura, Glencore and Vitol, have aggressively sought buyers among China‘s 20 independent refineries that are able to use imported crude in their plants.
“Some of the teapot refiners have only recently been g ranted the licenses, so they are still learning,‖ said David Wech at consultancy JBC Energy. ―They will buy from whomever they can and they will try to buy directly from sources, but it is still early days.‖
Oil analysts say just that just as China‘s state-backed energy companies built their own trading divisions to reduce their reliance on western commodity houses, the teapots are following a similar path. They say it is another illustration of China‘s growing influence on world oil markets.
Owain Johnson, managing director at the DME, said western trading houses still hoped China‘s independent refiners would become firm customers even as some of the bigger teapots become more self-sufficient.
“It‘s hard to overstate the level of interest from suppliers and traders in developing relationships with these guys,‖ Mr Johnson said.
The majority of China‘s refineries are small, local enterprises that will be dependent on bigger players domestically and internationally for crude procurement.
中国独立炼油厂参与全球石油交易
中国的独立炼油厂在全球石油交易中正变得更加自信，它们加大原油采购量，并直接从市场购买。

这些所谓的“茶壶”炼油厂去年获得首批进口许可证，其背景是北京方面采取行动促进能源业投资；该行业长期由中石化(Sinopec)和中石油(PetroChina)等大型国企主导。

尽管被称为茶壶，但中国的独立炼油厂有些是相当大的买家，它们合起来占中国炼油总产能大约三分之一。

这些企业迅速行动起来，与世界上一些最大的原油出口企业达成交易，并设法绕过国际贸易公司采购石油。

8
Mcanxixun Information
上月，山东京博石化公司(Shandong Chambroad Petrochemicals Company)向沙特阿拉伯国家石油公司(Saudi Aramco)直接购买一批现货原油。

沙特是石油输出国组织（OPEC，中文简称“欧佩克”）事实上的领导者，全球最大原油出口国。

现在，山东京博（获准进口原油的11家独立炼油厂之一）将成为在迪拜商品交易所(Dubai Mercantile Exchange)进行交易的首家茶壶。

该公司正寻求对冲自己的进口，并从阿曼购买实物原油。

一些业内人士提出，山东京博的这种做法似乎表明，中国民营炼油厂试图绕过中间商，无论是大型国际石油交易商还是中国国内的石油业巨擘。

迪拜商品交易所表示，将在未来几周接洽更多的中国独立炼油厂，并计划在5月中旬在中国举办一场圆桌讨论会，“以协助其他当地参与者”。

全球各大贸易公司，包括托克(Trafigura)、嘉能可(Glencore)和维多(Vitol)，都一直积极地在中国获准使用进口原油的20家独立炼油厂中寻找买家。

“有些茶壶炼油厂最近才获得许可证，所以他们还在学习，”JBC能源咨询公司(JBC Energy)的戴维•韦克(David Wech)表示。

“他们将从他们接触到的任何卖家购买，他们会尝试直接从源头购买，但现在仍是早期。

”
石油分析师们表示，就像中国政府支持的能源企业建立自己的交易部门，以降低对西方大宗商品贸易机构的依赖一样，茶壶炼油厂在走同样的道路。

他们表示，这是中国在世界石油市场上影响力与日俱增的又一个例证。

迪拜商品交易所董事总经理欧文•约翰逊(Owain Johnson)表示，西方贸易公司仍希望中国的独立炼油商成为稳定客户，即便某些较大的茶壶变得更加自给自足。

“供应商和贸易商与这些企业发展关系的兴趣极大，再怎么形容也不过分，”约翰逊表示。

中国的炼油厂多数是规模较小的本地企业，它们在原油采购方面将依赖于国内外的更大企业。

New Energy（新能源）
Wind generation growth slowed in 2015 as wind speeds declined in key regions
9
Source: Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Electric Power Monthly
U.S. wind generation grew by 5.1% in 2015, the smallest annual increase since at least 1999, as weather patterns in the Western half of the United States lowered wind speeds and dampened wind generation during the first half of the year. The same weather patterns resulted in stronger winds in the central part of the country, where wind generation growth in 2015 was most pronounced.
Source: Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Electric Power Monthly
Wind energy produced 191 terawatthours (TWh) of electricity in 2015, accounting for 4.7% of net U.S. electric power generation, up from 4.4% in 2014. Wind was the second-largest source of electricity produced from renewable sources, behind hydroelectricity, and 11 states generated more than 10% of their total electricity generation from wind. Both the absolute amount of wind generation and wind's share of total U.S. electricity generation have risen every year since at least 1999.
Wind capacity additions grew by 12.9% in 2015, an increase over the growth over the previous two years. In 2015, 8.1 gigawatts (GW) of wind capacity was installed, representing 41% of total capacity additions and bringing the total U.S. wind capacity to 73 GW. Capacity additions in 2013 were at their lowest point since 1998, when 0.9 GW were installed, due in part to expiring tax credits that have since been extended.
Year-to-year changes in wind generation reflect both the changes in wind capacity and yearly variations in the wind resource. Wind resources reflect seasonal wind patterns, which vary based on regional factors and are subject to year-to-year climate variations. At the state level, three states in the Pacific Census division—California, Oregon, and Washington—saw decreases in wind generation in 2015, as did most of the states in the Mountain Census division. Meanwhile, all but 1 of the 12 states in the Midwest region saw increases in generation.
Wind Generation
Wind capacity
Source: Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Electric Power Monthly
Texas continues to be the nation's largest producer of wind energy. Texas accounted for 44% of all wind capacity additions in 2015; Oklahoma and Kansas, the states to its immediate north, made up another 25%. In 2015, 17.7 GW of installed wind capacity in Texas produced nearly 45 TWh, accounting for 24% of all U.S. wind power. Texas built a 3,600-mile transmission network that can connect wind-generated electricity from rural areas to urban load centers. That system and the strong winds on the Texas plains have helped enable the state's substantial wind generation.
EIA's most recent Short-Term Energy Outlook projects that wind generation will increase 16% in 2016, as significant capacity additions are expected to come online, adding another 6 GW, or 9%, to operating wind capacity in 2015. Based on those capacity additions and the expected performance of wind turbines in each region,
wind is projected to supply more than 5% of U.S. electricity generation in 2016.
2015年重点地区风速下降使风力发电增长放缓
资料来源:美国能源信息管理局,每月电力
美国风力发电在2015年增长了5.1%,至少是自1999年以来的最小年增,美国西部的气候模式降低了风速,抑制了风力发电在今年上半年。

同样的气候模式导致国家的中部迎来了更强的风,在中部2015年风力发电增长最为明显。

资料来源:美国能源信息管理局,每月电力
2015年，风能产生了191太瓦时(TWh)的电力,占美国净发电量的4.7%,高于2014年的4.4%。

风是可再生能源发电的第二大来源,水力发电是第一,11个州产生的电力超过了全美总风力发电的10%。

风力发电和全美发电量中风能发电所占的份额的绝对数量自1999年以来每年都有有所增加。

风能发电能力的增加在2015年增长了12.9%,超过了过去两年增加的能力。

2015年,8.1千瓦风电装机容量被安装,占了了总风电产能增加值的41%,使全美风力发电产能达到73兆瓦。

2013年增加的产能达到了1998年以来的最低点,当时0.9千瓦风电装机容量被安装,部分原因是税收抵免自扩展之后到期。

风力发电年同比变化反映了风能发电产能的变化和每年的风力资源的变化。

风力资源反映了季风模式,季风模式随区域因素变化和并与气候的逐年变化相一致。

在州一级, Pacific Census区域的三个州——加州,
俄勒冈州和华盛顿——2015年风力发电减少了, Mountain Census 区域的州也呈现了同样的趋势。

几乎与此同时,中西部地区的12个州中除了1个州风力发电却增加了。

风力发电
风力发电产能
资料来源:美国能源信息管理局,每月电力
德州仍然是全国最大的风力发电区域。

德克萨斯州占2015年所有风电装机容量增加额的44%;俄克拉荷马州和堪萨斯州,位于德克萨斯州北部,占了另外的25%。

2015年,德克萨斯州安装的风力发电产能的17.7兆瓦产生了近45 TWh的电,占美国风能的24%。

德克萨斯州建造了3600英里的传输网络，该网络可以将风能发出的电输送给从农村到城市中心的各个地区。

德州平原上的系统和强风帮助该州大量的风力发电成为可能。

EIA最近的短期能源展望项目,风力发电在2016年将增加16%,重要的产能增加计划将上线,增加另一个6 GW,或9%,去运作2015年风电装机容量。

基于这些风力发电机的容量增加和预期的每个地区风力涡轮机的性能,2016年风力发电提供的电量预计将超过总发电量的5%。

Down on the farm
A Chinese pilot shows how 'solar plus agriculture' is emerging as an innovative model in the country's efforts to upgrade its energy industry, report Li Ying and Feng Hao
Attaching solar panels to the roof of a greenhouse sounds simple enough. In practice, however, there are complications. What if the panels block out too much light? How do you covert the energy into power for the greenhouse? China already wastes lots of solar power so why create more? And how to classify it –as an industrial project or agricultural land?
chinadialogue visited Nesi Solar‘s in Tianjin in search of answers.
From a distance Nesi Solar Farm looks like any other solar farm, with rows of black rectangular panels that stretch on for miles. But enter by the back way and it feels more like a giant greenhouse.
Agricultural solar projects have been around for over a decade but farms like this, which combine PV solar power generation with modern greenhouse agriculture, are still quite new to China. The Tianjin project covers 1,000 mu (0.7 square kilometres) and can generate 20MW of power. Beneath the blooming plant beds greenhouse technology is constantly at work, regulating the temperature, removing pests and distirbuting water.
The owners claim that their upgraded, integrated power grid saves them around 10,000 yuan (US$1,539) per Chinese mu (666 square metres) of greenhouse. And by installing the panels the overall productivity output of the land has increased.
Midnight blooms
To avoid blocking sunlight needed by the plants the panels have been arranged according to the plants' growth patterns. In 'PV agriculture', as its called, greenhouses are typically either half or completely covered in panels, according to the needs of the crops being grown.
Half-covered greenhouses are used to grow saplings and vegetables. Fully covered greenhouses make ideal homes for mushrooms.
Power up
You might think that electricity drawn from the solar panels is fed back into the greenhouse‘s irrigation, heating and lighting system but in fact all the power generated is sold to a local grid. As far as the accounts are concerned, the two businesses are separate.
Many farms start in agriculture and when this becomes unprofitable they turn to power generation as a second source of income. For companies like Nesi the primary source of income is the electricity, not crops.
Gao Xianggen, deputy head of the China Photovoltaic Agricultural Working Committee, told chinadialogue that problems can arise when power generation is given priority over agriculture as food production could be disrupted.
So how do farms strike the right balance? According to a spokesperson for Nesi, the immediate plan is for the solar business to support the agricultural arm. In the future, they might expand into ecotourism.
But combining the two different types of infrastructure over a long timeframe can be problematic. Jiang Kejuan, a researcher at the National Development and Reform Commission‘s Energy Research Institute explained that most solar power installations in China are built on permanent structures and have a lifespan of 25-35 years. However, agricultural greenhouses need to be replaced every 3-5 years. Nesi Solar has made great efforts to improve its greenhouse structure to ensure it lasts for at least 20 years –but most greenhouse don‘t yet share this design.
Not all energy is created equal
The latest figures from the National Energy Administration (NEA) show that in 2015, 15GW of new solar capacity was installed in China, up 41% on the previous year and accounting for 25% of all new solar capacity globally.
This means China has overtaken Germany to become the world‘s biggest generator of solar power. However, 20% of kilowatt hours of solar energy was wasted last year because of China's creaking grid systems which are difficult or impossible for new energy supplies to connect to. In Gansu far western China 31% of solar power was wasted last year.
With so much solar power going to waste is there a justification for further expansion? Jiang explained that the wastage comes from large wind and solar plants. Agricultural solar power plants are small and unlikely to be more than 60MW in size, which means most grid systems can by all the power they generate.
The NEA‘s 13th Five-Year Plan has mandated the rapid development of China's distributed solar sector. This will mostly take the form of rooftop installations on buildings in industrial parks and development zones, and on public buildings and private homes. It also mentioned plans to build solar power generators on farmland and even fish farms – hence the new rise of agricultural solar. Chinese leaders have predicted solar capacity to reach 70 GW by 2020 – giving huge scope for expansion in the agricultural solar sector.
Industry standards
But growth will not come without risk. In most cases agricultural solar can be classed as agricultural infrastructure. That means there‘s no need to apply for permission to change the use of agricultural land. But a recent investigation by the land and agricultural authorities in Yunnan province, southwest China, found PV agriculture projects are classed as construction, which means farmers will have to get new permits of risk the consequences.
At Nesi, the land was previously lying empty so reclassification was not needed.
Currently the solar sector has always been tightly regulated by local and central government. But in recent years the industry has exploded and the old pricing system is struggling to keep up. In 2014 the NEA said renewable energy subsidies would be reduced on a regional basis. In some provinces industry insiders complain that subsidies are not being paid at all.
This year‘s government work report called for the development of energy-saving and environmentally-friendly industries, with these set to become one of Chi na‘s main economic pillars. However, there are still no universal industry standards or inspection bodies for China‘s agricultural solar sector.
Industry standards are unlikely to emerge soon. More likely to emerge are standards for broader sectors, such as solar power generation, mushroom farming and fish and livestock farming. For the meantime, agricultural PV farmers will continue to wear many hats.
走进天津农业光伏园区
在常规的农业蔬菜大棚顶上铺设太阳能光板，棚上发电、棚下种菜，听起来很美好。

但是，铺设的光板会不会遮挡阳光，影响棚下作物的生长？电力能自产自销，用于棚内的调温照明吗？如今“弃光”严重，为什么还要在农业大棚上架设光板？另外，中国历来有“耕地红线不能碰”的严格政策，即为了确保粮食安全，经常进行耕种的土地面积最低值要坚守在18亿亩。

而光伏农业大棚这种半工半农的业态，土地性质又是什么呢？
带着一大串的疑问，中外对话走访了光伏农业公司昌盛日电在天津的项目部。

从天津南站驱车，20分钟左右就到达了园区。

远远地就看到一排排整齐的光伏电板，和其他的光伏电站好像并没有什么差别。

但是，走到背光一面，完全就是另一番景象了，从棚高到架构，以及棚内隐隐透出的绿色，完全是典型的蔬菜温室大棚。

遮住了阳光，作物怎么生长？
光伏农业是将太阳能发电与现代温室大棚相结合的产业形态。

天津园区项目经理尹虹介绍说，所谓“棚上产电，棚下种菜”的重点在于大棚基本架构的共用，并在大棚的向阳面部分或全部铺设太阳能发电装置。

以建成占地1000亩的天津农光园区为例，装机容量可以达到20兆瓦；同时，现代农业温室的设备也一应
俱全，运用智能设备为棚内的农作物调温、除虫、补水以及补光。

光伏电站与农业共用部分的基础和支架，在成本上形成分摊，农业部分的建设成本每亩可以节约超过1万元。

更重要的是，光伏和农业在土地利用上可以互补，这种综合利用土地资源的生产方式，可以增加单位面积土地产出，更好地发挥土地的收益潜力。

但是，向阳部分铺设了电板，会不会影响农作物的基本采光需求呢？因为在共用棚顶的情况下，太阳能光板的排布方式、角度、密度就不再仅仅取决于光伏组件的转换效率，棚内作物的生长情况也是重要的考量范畴。

换句话说，透光率高，发电效率就降低，这两者不可以兼得。

针对其中明显的内在矛盾，农光园区在规划的时就按照栽种农产品的需要，分为半罩式和全罩式。

半罩式的大棚栽种适应弱光环境的农业种植品种，比如茶叶、喜阴的苗木和蔬菜等；全罩式的大棚则栽种食用菌类产品。

另外，农光企业也从产品的经济附加值上做文章，力图建立农产品食品安全信息化追溯体系。

棚上发的电，棚内用不上
温室棚内运用智能设备控制灌溉、照明和调温，需要使用电力，而棚上放置的太阳能板就在发电，电力会优先供大棚内使用吗？并不是这样，园区生产的全部电力都会并入国家电网。

换句话说，农业和光伏在盈利模式上是两条线。

具体而言，光伏科技企业的主要营收来源还是在光伏发电，而非农业作物。

事实上，第一产业不挣钱，企业往往“理性”地转向发电收益。

中国光伏农业工作委员会副会长、高级工程师高祥根接受中外对话采访时强调，农光项目在实施中存在轻农重光的问题。

那么，光伏与农业领域究竟如何融合？昌盛日电的相关负责人告诉中外对话，公司以长线模式运营，就要考虑不同的发展周期。

在园区初期，希望以光伏发电为主要盈利点，通过光伏发电的收入补贴农业的发展，尽力提高农业产品的附加值，发展生态旅游、概念旅游等方向。

到成熟期，农业运营成为主要盈利点，理想状态能通过农业收入补贴光伏电站基础的运营和维护费用。

但是，国家发改委能源研究所研究员姜克隽提出，农业和光伏两套设施的结合存在矛盾点。

他介绍说，现在国内的光伏设施平均寿命可以达到25年，有的设施甚至可以达到30-35年，光伏设施的基本架构可以保持稳定。

但是农业大棚的设施经常会有变化。

从农作物种植的现实来看，一般的农业大棚的使用寿命平均也就是3-5年，农产品也会在产量的基础上发生变动。

昌盛日电天津园区的大棚在设计规划是投入了大量精力完善加强设施，确保这里的农业大棚可以使用至少20年。

类似的投入在业内目前还比较罕见。

此光非彼光
根据国家能源局最新统计数据，光伏发电2015年新增并网装机容量超过1500万千瓦，同比增长41%，占全球新增装机的四分之一以上，超越德国成为全球光伏发电装机容量最大的国家。

同时，数据显示，2015年全年全国累计光伏发电量392亿千瓦时，弃光电量约80亿千瓦时，弃光率约为20%，最为严重的甘肃，弃光率达到了31%。

这么多的电力产出无法有效实现并网，光伏还有发展前景吗？事实上，在现代农业发达的地区，农光结合仍是政策的导向。

姜克隽解释说，现在是大型的光伏和风机发电厂出现了“弃光”和“弃风”等问题，农村光伏分布式发电普遍没有超过6000千瓦，国家电网基本上会照单全收。

根据能源局公布的光伏“十三五”规划，分布式光伏发电将会进入快速发展时期。

所谓分布式光伏发电系统是以大型工业园区，经济开发区，公共设施，居民住宅等为主要依托的屋顶式发电系统。

而在这个大的前提下，规划鼓励以农业、渔业设施为依托，建设渔光互补和农光互补光伏发电集中区。

可以说农业光伏正是顺应这一潮流的新型业态。

规划提出十三五期间分布式光伏发电系统装机容量要达到7000万千瓦，这也给农业光伏的发展提供了广阔的前景。

亟待制定的行业标准
随着“十三五”新能源规划的出炉，业内普遍认为光伏发电将迎来新一轮的快速增长。

但是在增长的大趋势下，行业也面临着风险。