巴罗 宏观经济学ppt课件
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巴罗宏观经济学课件 (2)
l exogenous technological progress the improvements in technology were not explained within the model.
¡ ∆A/A= g
Long-Run Economic Growth
¡ Exogenous Technological Progress
Endogenous Growth Theory
The basic R&D model
• Assumptions
1. The labor force is the single production factor
2. Generalized Cobb-Douglas function without capital
l Alternative opportunities for talented individuals: rent-seeking
l Learning-by-doing:
Endogenous Growth Theory
¡ Optimal intellectual property rights
¡ The Diffusion of Technology
l (y/k)*= δ+(1/s)·[n+g/(1−α)]
l For Cobb-Douglas function
1
k
s
n
sA
g /(1 )
1
Long-Run Economic Growth
Long-Run Economic Growth
Long-Run Economic Growth
Endogenous Growth Theory
¡ ∆A/A= g
Long-Run Economic Growth
¡ Exogenous Technological Progress
Endogenous Growth Theory
The basic R&D model
• Assumptions
1. The labor force is the single production factor
2. Generalized Cobb-Douglas function without capital
l Alternative opportunities for talented individuals: rent-seeking
l Learning-by-doing:
Endogenous Growth Theory
¡ Optimal intellectual property rights
¡ The Diffusion of Technology
l (y/k)*= δ+(1/s)·[n+g/(1−α)]
l For Cobb-Douglas function
1
k
s
n
sA
g /(1 )
1
Long-Run Economic Growth
Long-Run Economic Growth
Long-Run Economic Growth
Endogenous Growth Theory
巴罗 宏观经济学 ppt 章节9
Macroeconomics
Chapter 9
28
The Labor Force, Employment, and Unemployment
Macroeconomics
Chapter 9
18
Capital Input
The Cyclical Behavior of Capacity Utilization
The Federal Reserve computes capacity utilization by expressing a sector’s output of goods as a percentage of the estimated “normal capacity” of each sector to produce goods
employment rate= 1 − u
Macroeconomics
Chapter 9
21
The Labor Force, Employment, and Unemployment
Employment =（1 − u）·Labor force
Total working hours = （1 − u）·Labor force ·working hours per worker
Macroeconomics Chapteroyment, and Unemployment
A Model of Job Finding
Macroeconomics
Chapter 9
27
The Labor Force, Employment, and Unemployment
Chapter 9
巴罗宏观经济学：现代观点第3章-PPT文档资料46页
y=f(k)
y output per worker k capital per worker
Macroeconomics Chapter 3
19
Macroeconomics Chapter 3
20
An example: Cobb-Douglas Production Function
In particular, why did the East Asian countries do so much better than the subSaharan African countries?
Macroeconomics Chapter 3
11
Growth Questions
How did countries such as the United States and other OECD members sustain growth rates of real GDP per person of around 2% per year for a century or more?
Macroeconomics Chapter 3
32
Solow Growth Model
Y−δK=C+s·(Y−δ K) Real income = consumption + real saving
Macroeconomics Chapter 3
33
Solow Growth Model
Y = C + I Real GDP = consumption + gross
29
Solow Growth Model
∆Y/Y= α·(∆K/K) + (1−α)·(∆L/L) ∆Y/Y= α·(∆K/K) − α·(∆L/ L) + ∆L/ L ∆Y/Y − ∆L/L = α ·(∆K/K − ∆L/L) ∆y/y = α·(∆k/k)
y output per worker k capital per worker
Macroeconomics Chapter 3
19
Macroeconomics Chapter 3
20
An example: Cobb-Douglas Production Function
In particular, why did the East Asian countries do so much better than the subSaharan African countries?
Macroeconomics Chapter 3
11
Growth Questions
How did countries such as the United States and other OECD members sustain growth rates of real GDP per person of around 2% per year for a century or more?
Macroeconomics Chapter 3
32
Solow Growth Model
Y−δK=C+s·(Y−δ K) Real income = consumption + real saving
Macroeconomics Chapter 3
33
Solow Growth Model
Y = C + I Real GDP = consumption + gross
29
Solow Growth Model
∆Y/Y= α·(∆K/K) + (1−α)·(∆L/L) ∆Y/Y= α·(∆K/K) − α·(∆L/ L) + ∆L/ L ∆Y/Y − ∆L/L = α ·(∆K/K − ∆L/L) ∆y/y = α·(∆k/k)
巴罗宏观经济学课件 (3)
l The intertemporal-substitution effect motivates the household to save more when the interest rate rises.
Consumption and Saving
¡ The income effect from a change in the interest rate l C2 + ( B2/ P + K2) − ( B1/ P + K1) = ( w/ P) 2 · L + i1 · ( B1/ P + K1)
l If the interest rate, i1, is greater than zero, $1 received or spent in year 1 is equivalent to more than $1 in year 2.
l Dollars received or spent in year 2 must be discounted to make them comparable to dollars in year 1.
Consumption, Saving and Investment
Consumption and Saving
¡ Household budget constraint
l C + (1/P) · ∆B+ ∆K = π/P + ( w/P )·L + i·( B/P + K)
l π /P = 0 l C+(1/P)·∆B+∆K=(w/P)·L+i·(B/P+K) l consumption+ real saving = real income
Consumption and Saving
¡ The income effect from a change in the interest rate l C2 + ( B2/ P + K2) − ( B1/ P + K1) = ( w/ P) 2 · L + i1 · ( B1/ P + K1)
l If the interest rate, i1, is greater than zero, $1 received or spent in year 1 is equivalent to more than $1 in year 2.
l Dollars received or spent in year 2 must be discounted to make them comparable to dollars in year 1.
Consumption, Saving and Investment
Consumption and Saving
¡ Household budget constraint
l C + (1/P) · ∆B+ ∆K = π/P + ( w/P )·L + i·( B/P + K)
l π /P = 0 l C+(1/P)·∆B+∆K=(w/P)·L+i·(B/P+K) l consumption+ real saving = real income
巴罗宏观经济学课件 (10)
The Balance of International Payments
¡ (B ft − B ft−1 )/ P = Yt− ( Ct+ It+ Gt) + rt−1·Bft−1/P
¡ real current-account balance = trade balance + net real asset income
at rf
¡ The opening up to the world credit market would not change the real interest rate available to the home country’s households.
Determinants of the Current-Account Balance
The Balance of International Payments
¡ Ct+ It+ Gt + (B ft − B ft−1)/ P = Yt+ r t−1·B ft−1/ P
¡ real domestic expenditure+ net foreign investment = real GNP on goods and services
The Balance of International Payments
¡ Closed economy:
l Yt = Ct+ It+ Gt l real GDP = real domestic expenditure
The Balance of International Payments
¡ Open Economy
assets by the home country at the end of year t.
巴罗宏观经济学ppt11
Two possible reasons of inflation:
Decrease of real demand for money Increase of money supply
Macroeconomics Chapter 11
2
Cross-Country Data on Inflation and Money Growth
Macroeconomics Chapter 11
16
Inflation and Interest Rates
Macroeconomics Chapter 11
17
Inflation and Interest Rates
Real and Nominal Interest Rates
The Real interest rate to be the rate at which the real value of assets held as bonds changes over time.
Denote by πe1 the expectation of the inflation rate π1.
The actual inflation rate, π1, will usually deviate from its expectatir—or unexpected inflation—will be nonzero.
π1 = ( P2 − P1)/ P1 π1 = ∆P1/ P1
Macroeconomics Chapter 11
12
Inflation and Interest Rates
Actual and Expected Inflation
π1 = ( P2 − P1)/ P1 π1 = ∆P1/ P1 π1 ·P1 = P2 − P1
Decrease of real demand for money Increase of money supply
Macroeconomics Chapter 11
2
Cross-Country Data on Inflation and Money Growth
Macroeconomics Chapter 11
16
Inflation and Interest Rates
Macroeconomics Chapter 11
17
Inflation and Interest Rates
Real and Nominal Interest Rates
The Real interest rate to be the rate at which the real value of assets held as bonds changes over time.
Denote by πe1 the expectation of the inflation rate π1.
The actual inflation rate, π1, will usually deviate from its expectatir—or unexpected inflation—will be nonzero.
π1 = ( P2 − P1)/ P1 π1 = ∆P1/ P1
Macroeconomics Chapter 11
12
Inflation and Interest Rates
Actual and Expected Inflation
π1 = ( P2 − P1)/ P1 π1 = ∆P1/ P1 π1 ·P1 = P2 − P1
宏观经济学ppt课件完整版
一、国内生产总值的定义
•
定义：在某一既定时期一国之内生
产的所有最终产品和劳务市场价值总
和。
•
上述定义包括以下几方面规定：
•
第一，“一国之内…”。GDP按国
土原则计算
•
GDP以领土为统计范围，强调无
论劳动力和其它生产要素是属于本
国、还是外国，只要是在本国领土
生产的产品和劳务的价值都计入本
国的GDP。，
企业家愿意提供的产品越多。
•
—— 供给定理
34
（2）经济理论的图形表达
P
S
O
Q
35
（3）经济理论的数学表达
•
•
•
•
用函数的形式表达供给定理，该理
论可以表示为：
Q
= f（P）
供给量
价格
函数
上式表示供给量是价格的函数。
36
（4）著名的经济学模型 ：供求模型
•
例如，猪肉的需求函数：
•
Qd = D（P、Y）
流量而不是存量，通常以年度或季
度为单位度量。
存量 VS .流量
•
存量：
在某一时点上存在的数量。
（洗脸盆中的水，你书架上的书和
你储蓄账户上的货币量也是存量。）
•
流量：
在一定时期发生的量。
（打开的水龙头流到洗脸盆中的水。
我们在一个月里买的书和我们在一个
月里赚到的收入也是流量。）
存量 VS .流量
•
化等。
26
值得研究的问题：
•
（1）为什么会有经济增长？决定因
素是什么？
•
（2）如何准确测量经济增长的速度
和成本，经济增长如何维持？如何实
巴罗宏观经济学课件 (5)
Temporary Changes in Government Purchases
¡ Theory
l Assume now that year 1’s real government purchases, G1, rise by one unit, while those for other years, Gt, do not change. That is, everyone expects that Gt in future years will return to the original level.
¡ Intratemporal substitution effect involves consumption and leisure：
l labor and, hence, leisure is fixed. l In any event, this substitution effect depends on
Permanent Changes in Government Purchases
l r = ( R/ P) · κ − δ(κ)
l a permanent increase in government purchases does not affect the real interest rate.
The Government’s Budget Constraint
¡ Gt represent government purchases in real terms for year t. l Ct + It + Gt, is the aggregate real spending on goods and services in year t.
宏观经济学全集PPT课件
02
国民收入核算与决定
国民收入核算体系与方法
01
02
03
GDP核算体系
以国内生产总值（GDP） 为核心的核算体系，包括 生产法、收入法和支出法 三种核算方法。
GNP核算体系
以国民生产总值（GNP） 为核心的核算体系，注重 国民经济总体规模和结构。
国民经济核算账户
通过一系列账户体系全面 反映国民经济运行状况， 包括生产账户、收入分配 账户、消费账户等。
开放经济条件下财政政策效应分析
财政政策效应
指财政政策实施过程中对经济社会所产生的影响和效果。在开放经济条件下，财政政策效 应会受到多种因素的影响，如国际资本流动、汇率变动、国际贸易等。
财政政策与国际贸易
财政政策可以通过调整关税、出口退税等措施来影响国际贸易，进而对国内经济产生影响 。例如，提高关税可以保护国内产业，但同时也可能导致贸易伙伴采取报复措施，影响国 际贸易环境。
• 总供给曲线：表示在其他条件不变的情况下，价格水平与总供给量之间的关系 。总供给曲线通常向右上方倾斜，表明随着价格水平的提高，总供给量也会增 加。
• 总需求曲线：表示在其他条件不变的情况下，价格水平与总需求量之间的关系 。总需求曲线通常向右下方倾斜，表明随着价格水平的提高，总需求量会减少 。
• 模型分析：当总供给曲线与总需求曲线相交时，经济达到均衡状态。此时的价 格水平和产出水平分别为均衡价格和均衡产出。当经济受到外部冲击时，如财 政政策变动、国际经济环境变化等，总供给曲线或总需求曲线会发生移动，导 致均衡价格和均衡产出发生变化。通过对总供给-总需求模型的分析，可以预 测和解释这些变化对宏观经济的影响。
THANKS
感谢观看
工具选择考虑因素
经济形势、政策目标、工具特点 等。
巴罗宏观经济学：现代观点第10章42页PPT
Steven Goldfeld
Casey Mulligan and Xavier Sala-iMartin
Michael Dotsey
Macroeconomics Chapter 10
18
Determination of the Price Level
The Nominal Quantity of Money Supplied Equals the Nominal Quantity Demanded
Checkable deposits issued by banks and other financial institutions.
Macroeconomics Chapter 10
4
Macroeconomics Chapter 10
5
Macroeconomics Chapter 10
6
Macroeconomics Chapter 10
24
Determination of the Price Level
A Change in the Nominal Quantity of Money
The unchanged technology level, A, means that the real rental price, R/P, and the quantity of capital services, κK, do not change.
Macroeconomics Chapter 10
7
The Demand for Money
Money is hand-to-hand currency
Assume that the interest rate paid on money is zero.
巴罗宏观经济学课件 (7)
Measuring GDP by Income
¡
National Income – Income earned by factors of production.
Relationship between GDP and National Income
National Income by Sector
Nominal GDP
l
Flow variable - it measures the dollar amount of goods produced per unit of time, such as a year. GDP in current dollars Services by government: measured by costs
l
l
Real GDP
¡
Calculating Real GDP
l l
GDP in constant dollars Multiply each year’s quantity of output of each good by the price of the good in a base year. Chain-weighted real GDP
l
Calculations
¡
(nominal GDP)/(implicit price level) = real GDP
or
¡
implicit price level = (nominal GDP)/(real GDP)
GDP as a Welfare Measure
GDP does not: ¡ Consider change in income distribution ¡ Include non-market goods. ¡ Assign value to leisure. ¡ Consider environmental damage.
宏观经济学ppt全套教学课件
家借钱，用以支付进口的商品和服务超出进口的部
分。出现贸易顺差的国家则可以把钱储备起来，或
者购买其他国家的金融资产。因此，对外贸易必然
带来对外借贷关系。
• 贸易不平衡是开放经济这一课题下最核心的问题之
一。
• 我们可以通过美国2013年国际收支账户具体了解国
际收支账户的构成情况。
美国2013年国际收支账户（单位：10亿美元）
• 任何符合以上条件者均被计入失业人口，零活工、季节工
均作就业人口计。
2、失业的类型
• 根据失业产生的原因，可以把失业归于三种类型：
• (1)摩擦性失业（Frictional unemployment）。来自于劳
动力市场正常变动的失业称为摩擦性失业。
• (2)结构性失业（Structural unemployment）。这一类失
量一国的经济规模，而美国等国则采用GNP指标。为了与其
他国家的统计口径一致，美国商业部从1991年开始也改用
GDP指标。
名义价值与实际价值
• 名义价值，也就是现时的货币价值。名义价值往往并不具备可比性，
因为在实际经济生活中的货币价值通常是不稳定的。当存在通货膨胀
或是通货紧缩时，名义价值就会脱离实际价值。
第一章
导 论
第一节
宏观经济学的研究对象和方法
➢什么是宏观经济学
➢宏观经济学的研究对象
➢宏观经济学的研究方法
什么是宏观经济学
宏观经济学也叫做总量经济学，宏观
(Macro) 一 词 源 于 希 腊 文 (Makros) ， 表 示
“大”的意思，这是因为宏观经济学这一
学科研究的对象是大型经济单位，通常是
容：
➢
➢
➢
分。出现贸易顺差的国家则可以把钱储备起来，或
者购买其他国家的金融资产。因此，对外贸易必然
带来对外借贷关系。
• 贸易不平衡是开放经济这一课题下最核心的问题之
一。
• 我们可以通过美国2013年国际收支账户具体了解国
际收支账户的构成情况。
美国2013年国际收支账户（单位：10亿美元）
• 任何符合以上条件者均被计入失业人口，零活工、季节工
均作就业人口计。
2、失业的类型
• 根据失业产生的原因，可以把失业归于三种类型：
• (1)摩擦性失业（Frictional unemployment）。来自于劳
动力市场正常变动的失业称为摩擦性失业。
• (2)结构性失业（Structural unemployment）。这一类失
量一国的经济规模，而美国等国则采用GNP指标。为了与其
他国家的统计口径一致，美国商业部从1991年开始也改用
GDP指标。
名义价值与实际价值
• 名义价值，也就是现时的货币价值。名义价值往往并不具备可比性，
因为在实际经济生活中的货币价值通常是不稳定的。当存在通货膨胀
或是通货紧缩时，名义价值就会脱离实际价值。
第一章
导 论
第一节
宏观经济学的研究对象和方法
➢什么是宏观经济学
➢宏观经济学的研究对象
➢宏观经济学的研究方法
什么是宏观经济学
宏观经济学也叫做总量经济学，宏观
(Macro) 一 词 源 于 希 腊 文 (Makros) ， 表 示
“大”的意思，这是因为宏观经济学这一
学科研究的对象是大型经济单位，通常是
容：
➢
➢
➢
2024版宏观经济学ppt课件完整版
•宏观经济学概述•国民收入与经济增长•失业与通货膨胀问题探讨•货币政策与财政政策实践应用目录•国际收支与汇率制度改革进展•宏观经济政策效果评价及展望01宏观经济学概述宏观经济学定义与特点定义特点以整个国民经济为考察对象，关注总量指标如GDP、失业率、通货膨胀率等；研究经济波动、经济增长、国际经济等宏观层面的问题。
宏观经济学研究对象国民收入决定失业与通货膨胀经济周期与经济增长国际经济研究对象不同分析方法不同政策目标不同相互联系01020304宏观经济学与微观经济学关系02国民收入与经济增长国民收入定义指一个国家或地区在一定时期内（通常为一年）所有常住单位从事生产活动所创造的增加值的总和。
采用国内生产总值（GDP）作为衡量国民收入的主要指标，通过生产法、收入法和支出法三种方法进行核算。
从生产过程中创造的货物和服务价值入手，剔除生产过程中投入的中间产品的价值，得到增加值。
也称分配法，按收入法计算的国内生产总值是从生产过程创造收入的角度，对常住单位的生产活动成果进行核算。
是从最终使用的角度反映国内生产总值最终使用去向的一种方法。
最终使用包括货物和服务的最终消费、资本形成总额和净出口三部分。
核算方法收入法支出法生产法国民收入概念及核算方法经济增长理论与政策目标经济增长理论研究解释经济增长规律和影响制约因素的理论，包括古典经济增长理论、新古典经济增长理论和新经济增长理论等。
政策目标促进经济持续、稳定、协调发展，提高人民生活水平，实现充分就业，保持物价稳定，推动社会全面进步。
实现途径通过增加投资、提高生产效率、优化产业结构、推动技术创新和制度创新等方式实现经济增长。
为起飞创造前提阶段开始积累起飞所需的社会基础设施和公共基础设施，如交通、通讯、电力等。
成熟阶段追求生活质量阶段人们更加关注生活质量和环境保护，绿色经济和可持续发展成为重要议题。
传统社会阶段生产力水平低下，以农业为主导产业，经济增长缓慢。
起飞阶段高额群众消费阶段居民消费水平显著提高，对高品质商品和服务的需求增加，推动经济向更高水平发展。
巴罗宏观经济学：现代观点第6章.ppt
The real rental price is R/P.
Macroeconomics Chapter 6
10
The Bond Market in the Macroeconomy
Each household runs a family business and uses labor, L, and capital, K, to produce goods, Y, through the production function.
Y= A·F( K, L)
Macroeconomics Chapter 6
Macroeconomics Chapter 6
9
Rental Markets and Prices
Households rent out capital, K, for dollars at the dollar or nominal rental price, R
A household that rents the amount of capital Kd pays the nominal amount RKd per year and then gets to use the capital as an input to production.
We think of the capital offered on the rental market as the supply of capital services, Ks. Since we have assumed that each household rents out all of its capital, we have Ks = K.
Macroeconomics Chapter 6
Macroeconomics Chapter 6
10
The Bond Market in the Macroeconomy
Each household runs a family business and uses labor, L, and capital, K, to produce goods, Y, through the production function.
Y= A·F( K, L)
Macroeconomics Chapter 6
Macroeconomics Chapter 6
9
Rental Markets and Prices
Households rent out capital, K, for dollars at the dollar or nominal rental price, R
A household that rents the amount of capital Kd pays the nominal amount RKd per year and then gets to use the capital as an input to production.
We think of the capital offered on the rental market as the supply of capital services, Ks. Since we have assumed that each household rents out all of its capital, we have Ks = K.
Macroeconomics Chapter 6
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There is a broad cross-sectional range for the inflation rates and the growth rates of money.
7
Cross-Country Data on Inflation and Money Growth
Highlights
We measure the price level, P, by the consumer price index (CPI). We use the CPI, rather than the GDP deflator, because of data availability.
3
4
5
6
Cross-Country Data on Inflation and Money Growth
Actual and Expected Inflation
Since the future is unknown, households have to form forecasts or expectations of inflation.
Denote by πe1 the expectation of the inflation rate π1.
For a country that has a high inflation rate in one period to have a high inflation rate in another period.
Strong positive association between the inflation rate and the growth rate of nominal currency.
9
Cross-Country Data on Inflation and Money Growth
10
Cross-Country Data on Inflation and Money Growth
One lesson from the cross-country data is that, to understand inflation, we have to include money growth as a central part of the analysis.
12
Inflation and Interest Rates
Actual and Expected Inflation
π1 = ( P2 − P1)/ P1 π1 = ∆P1/ P1 π1 ·P1 = P2 − P1 P2 = ( 1 +π1) ·P1
13
Inflation and Interest Rates
Highlights
The inflation rate was greater than 0 for all countries from 1960 to 2000
The growth rate of nominal currency was greater than 0 for all countries from 1960 to 2000.
Chapter11 Inflation, Money Growth, and Interest Rates
1
Cross-Country Data on Inflation and Money Growth Key equation: Ms = P·L(Y, i)
Two possible reasons of inflation:
Milton Friedman’s famous dictum:
“Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.”
11
Inflation and Interest Rates
Actual and Expected Inflation
8
Cross-Country Data on Inflation and Money Growth
Highlights
In most countries, the growth rate of nominal currency, M, exceeded the growth rate of prices.
The median inflation rate from 1960 to 2000 was 8.3% per year, h 30 countries exceeding 10%.
For the growth rate of nominal currency, the median was 11.6% per year, with 50 above 10%
Let π be the inflation rate. The inflation rate from year 1 to year 2, π1, is the ratio of the change in the price level to the initial price level.
π1 = ( P2 − P1)/ P1 π1 = ∆P1/ P1
Decrease of real demand for money Increase of money supply
2
Cross-Country Data on Inflation and Money Growth
Inflation rates and money growth rates for 82 countries from 1960 to 2000.
The actual inflation rate, π1, will usually deviate from its expectation, πe1, and the forecast error—or unexpected inflation—will be nonzero.
14
Inflation and Interest Rates
7
Cross-Country Data on Inflation and Money Growth
Highlights
We measure the price level, P, by the consumer price index (CPI). We use the CPI, rather than the GDP deflator, because of data availability.
3
4
5
6
Cross-Country Data on Inflation and Money Growth
Actual and Expected Inflation
Since the future is unknown, households have to form forecasts or expectations of inflation.
Denote by πe1 the expectation of the inflation rate π1.
For a country that has a high inflation rate in one period to have a high inflation rate in another period.
Strong positive association between the inflation rate and the growth rate of nominal currency.
9
Cross-Country Data on Inflation and Money Growth
10
Cross-Country Data on Inflation and Money Growth
One lesson from the cross-country data is that, to understand inflation, we have to include money growth as a central part of the analysis.
12
Inflation and Interest Rates
Actual and Expected Inflation
π1 = ( P2 − P1)/ P1 π1 = ∆P1/ P1 π1 ·P1 = P2 − P1 P2 = ( 1 +π1) ·P1
13
Inflation and Interest Rates
Highlights
The inflation rate was greater than 0 for all countries from 1960 to 2000
The growth rate of nominal currency was greater than 0 for all countries from 1960 to 2000.
Chapter11 Inflation, Money Growth, and Interest Rates
1
Cross-Country Data on Inflation and Money Growth Key equation: Ms = P·L(Y, i)
Two possible reasons of inflation:
Milton Friedman’s famous dictum:
“Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.”
11
Inflation and Interest Rates
Actual and Expected Inflation
8
Cross-Country Data on Inflation and Money Growth
Highlights
In most countries, the growth rate of nominal currency, M, exceeded the growth rate of prices.
The median inflation rate from 1960 to 2000 was 8.3% per year, h 30 countries exceeding 10%.
For the growth rate of nominal currency, the median was 11.6% per year, with 50 above 10%
Let π be the inflation rate. The inflation rate from year 1 to year 2, π1, is the ratio of the change in the price level to the initial price level.
π1 = ( P2 − P1)/ P1 π1 = ∆P1/ P1
Decrease of real demand for money Increase of money supply
2
Cross-Country Data on Inflation and Money Growth
Inflation rates and money growth rates for 82 countries from 1960 to 2000.
The actual inflation rate, π1, will usually deviate from its expectation, πe1, and the forecast error—or unexpected inflation—will be nonzero.
14
Inflation and Interest Rates