公司理财第四章
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4-4
Financial Planning Process • Planning Horizon - divide decisions into short-run decisions (usually next 12 months)
and long-run decisions (usually 2 – 5 years) • Aggregation - combine capital budgeting decisions into one large project • Assumptions and Scenarios
to make the balance sheet balance • Economic Assumptions – explicit assumptions about the coming economic environment
4-7
Example: Historical Financial Statements
– Dividends are a management decision and generally do not vary directly with sales – this influences additions to retained earnings
• Balance Sheet – Initially assume all assets, including fixed, vary directly with sales – Accounts payable will also normally vary directly with sales – Notes payable, long-term debt and equity generally do not vary directly with sales because they depend on management decisions about capital structure – The change in the retained earnings portion of equity will come from the dividend decision
Gourmet Coffee Inc.
Balance Sheet December 31, 2009
Gourmet Coffee Inc.
Income Statement For Year Ended December 31, 2009
Assets Total
1000 Debt Equity
1000 Total
growth • Understand the four major decision areas involved in long-term financial planning • Understand how capital structure policy and dividend policy affect a firm’s ability to
– All items are tied directly to sales, and the current relationships are optimal
– Consequently, all other items will also grow at 15%
Gourmet Coffee Inc.
– Dividends = 460 (NI) – 370 (increase in equity) = 90 dividends paid
Assets
• Case II
–
Debt is the plug variable and no dividends = 1,150 – (600+460) = 90
grow
4-2
Chapter Outline • What Is Financial Planning? • Financial Planning Models: A First Look • The Percentage of Sales Approach • External Financing and Growth • Some Caveats Regarding Financial Planning Models
公司理财第四章
Key Concepts and Skills • Understand the financial planning process and how decisions are interrelated • Be able to develop a financial plan using the percentage of sales approach • Be able to compute external financing needed and identify the determinants of a firm’s
– Repay 400 – 90 = 310 in debt
Assets Total
Gourmet Coffee Inc. Pro Forma Balance Sheet
Case 1
1,150 Debt Equity
1,150 Total
Gourmet Coffee Inc. Pro Forma Balance Sheet
• Pro Forma Statements – setting up the plan using projected financial statements allows for consistency and ease of interpretation
• Asset Requirements – the additional assets that will be required to meet sales projections • Financial Requirements – the amount of financing needed to pay for the required assets • Plug Variable – determined by management deciding what type of financing will be used
4-11
Example: Income Statement
Sales
Tasha’s Toy Emporium Income Statement, 2009
5,000
% of Sales
Less: costs
(3,000)
60%
EBT
2,000
40%
Less: taxes (40% of EBT)
Net Income
opportunities • Avoid surprises – help management identify possible outcomes and plan accordingly • Ensure feasibility and internal consistency – help management determine if goals can
Case 2 1,150 Debt
Equity 1,150 Total
460 690 1,150
90 1,060 1,150
4-10
Percentage of Sales Approach
• Some items vary directly with sales, while others do not • Income Statement
Pro Forma Income Statement For Year Ended 2010
Revenues
2,300
Less: costs
(1,840)
Net Income
460
4-9
Example: Pro Forma Balance Sheet
• Case I
– Dividends are the plug variable, so equity increases at 15%
4-3
Elements of Financial Planning • Investment in new assets – determined by capital budgeting decisions • Degree of financial leverage – determined by capital structure decisions • Cash paid to shareholders – determined by dividend policy decisions • Liquidity requirements – determined by net working capital decisions
be accomplished and if the various stated (and unstated) goals of the firm are consistent with one another
4-6
Financial Planning Model Ingredients
• Sales Forecast – many cash flows depend directly on the level of sales (often estimated using sales growth rate)
– Make realistic assumptions about important variables – Run several scenarios where you vary the assumptions by reasonable amounts – Determine, at a minimum, worst case, normal case, and best case scenarios
4-5
Role of Financial Planning • Examine interactions – help management see the interactions between decisions • Explore options – give management a systematic framework for exploring its
400 Revenues
600 Less: costs
Net Income 1000
2000 (1600)
400
4-8
Example: Pro Forma Income Statement
• Initial Assumptions
– Revenues will grow at 15% (2,000*1.15)
– Costs may vary directly with sales - if this is the case, then the profit margin is constant
– Depreciation and interest expense may not vary directly with sales – if this is the case, then the profit margin is not constant
Net Income
1,320
Dividends
660
Add. To RE
660
Assume Sales grow at 10% Dividend Payout Rate = 50%
4-12
Example: Balance Sheet
Tasha’s Toy Emporium – Balance Sheet
(800) 1,200
16% 24%
Dividends
600
Add. To RE
600
Tasha’s Toy Emporium Pro Forma Income Statement, 2010
Sales
5,500
Less: costs EBT
(3,300) 2,200
Less: taxes
(880)
Financial Planning Process • Planning Horizon - divide decisions into short-run decisions (usually next 12 months)
and long-run decisions (usually 2 – 5 years) • Aggregation - combine capital budgeting decisions into one large project • Assumptions and Scenarios
to make the balance sheet balance • Economic Assumptions – explicit assumptions about the coming economic environment
4-7
Example: Historical Financial Statements
– Dividends are a management decision and generally do not vary directly with sales – this influences additions to retained earnings
• Balance Sheet – Initially assume all assets, including fixed, vary directly with sales – Accounts payable will also normally vary directly with sales – Notes payable, long-term debt and equity generally do not vary directly with sales because they depend on management decisions about capital structure – The change in the retained earnings portion of equity will come from the dividend decision
Gourmet Coffee Inc.
Balance Sheet December 31, 2009
Gourmet Coffee Inc.
Income Statement For Year Ended December 31, 2009
Assets Total
1000 Debt Equity
1000 Total
growth • Understand the four major decision areas involved in long-term financial planning • Understand how capital structure policy and dividend policy affect a firm’s ability to
– All items are tied directly to sales, and the current relationships are optimal
– Consequently, all other items will also grow at 15%
Gourmet Coffee Inc.
– Dividends = 460 (NI) – 370 (increase in equity) = 90 dividends paid
Assets
• Case II
–
Debt is the plug variable and no dividends = 1,150 – (600+460) = 90
grow
4-2
Chapter Outline • What Is Financial Planning? • Financial Planning Models: A First Look • The Percentage of Sales Approach • External Financing and Growth • Some Caveats Regarding Financial Planning Models
公司理财第四章
Key Concepts and Skills • Understand the financial planning process and how decisions are interrelated • Be able to develop a financial plan using the percentage of sales approach • Be able to compute external financing needed and identify the determinants of a firm’s
– Repay 400 – 90 = 310 in debt
Assets Total
Gourmet Coffee Inc. Pro Forma Balance Sheet
Case 1
1,150 Debt Equity
1,150 Total
Gourmet Coffee Inc. Pro Forma Balance Sheet
• Pro Forma Statements – setting up the plan using projected financial statements allows for consistency and ease of interpretation
• Asset Requirements – the additional assets that will be required to meet sales projections • Financial Requirements – the amount of financing needed to pay for the required assets • Plug Variable – determined by management deciding what type of financing will be used
4-11
Example: Income Statement
Sales
Tasha’s Toy Emporium Income Statement, 2009
5,000
% of Sales
Less: costs
(3,000)
60%
EBT
2,000
40%
Less: taxes (40% of EBT)
Net Income
opportunities • Avoid surprises – help management identify possible outcomes and plan accordingly • Ensure feasibility and internal consistency – help management determine if goals can
Case 2 1,150 Debt
Equity 1,150 Total
460 690 1,150
90 1,060 1,150
4-10
Percentage of Sales Approach
• Some items vary directly with sales, while others do not • Income Statement
Pro Forma Income Statement For Year Ended 2010
Revenues
2,300
Less: costs
(1,840)
Net Income
460
4-9
Example: Pro Forma Balance Sheet
• Case I
– Dividends are the plug variable, so equity increases at 15%
4-3
Elements of Financial Planning • Investment in new assets – determined by capital budgeting decisions • Degree of financial leverage – determined by capital structure decisions • Cash paid to shareholders – determined by dividend policy decisions • Liquidity requirements – determined by net working capital decisions
be accomplished and if the various stated (and unstated) goals of the firm are consistent with one another
4-6
Financial Planning Model Ingredients
• Sales Forecast – many cash flows depend directly on the level of sales (often estimated using sales growth rate)
– Make realistic assumptions about important variables – Run several scenarios where you vary the assumptions by reasonable amounts – Determine, at a minimum, worst case, normal case, and best case scenarios
4-5
Role of Financial Planning • Examine interactions – help management see the interactions between decisions • Explore options – give management a systematic framework for exploring its
400 Revenues
600 Less: costs
Net Income 1000
2000 (1600)
400
4-8
Example: Pro Forma Income Statement
• Initial Assumptions
– Revenues will grow at 15% (2,000*1.15)
– Costs may vary directly with sales - if this is the case, then the profit margin is constant
– Depreciation and interest expense may not vary directly with sales – if this is the case, then the profit margin is not constant
Net Income
1,320
Dividends
660
Add. To RE
660
Assume Sales grow at 10% Dividend Payout Rate = 50%
4-12
Example: Balance Sheet
Tasha’s Toy Emporium – Balance Sheet
(800) 1,200
16% 24%
Dividends
600
Add. To RE
600
Tasha’s Toy Emporium Pro Forma Income Statement, 2010
Sales
5,500
Less: costs EBT
(3,300) 2,200
Less: taxes
(880)