马尔萨斯 分析

An Critical Analysis of Thomas Robert Malthus
In the Malthus magnum opus An Essay on the Principle of Population (1798), the principle of population can be summarized as "two postulates", "Malthusian trap" and "two kinds of checks". Fist of all, the two postulates express that food is the essential resource for human life; the passion between the sexes, as a kind of instinct of human beings, almost will not be changed. Secondly, the Malthusian trap asserts that food supply is subject to a linear growth model, but population growth follows a geometric pattern. In order to respondto those contradictions above, Malthus clarifies two kinds of checks: positive checks, which raise the death rate; and preventive checks, which lower the birth rate. Positive checks include hunger, disease and war; preventive checks include abortion, birth control, prostitution, postponement of marriage and celibacy[1]. However, Malthus later argues that positive checks should be advocating healthy pregnancy and scientific nurture based on preventive checks, instead of immorally increasing the death rate. His principle of population was generally accepted and understood by society after the global population boom in the late twentieth century. Thus, I will examine the contributions of Thomas Robert Malthus in a critical way.
Before Malthus there were not any economic analysts or demographers to investigate the mutual influence between population growth and economic development. Malthus proposes that there is an inverse relationship between population change and economic growth. Excessive population growth will lead to economic decline; the economic
downturn can lead to population reduction. Then, the economy and the population will fall into a circulation, which is similar to the "cobweb model" condition. This circulation can lead the economy and the population growth to arrive at a balance. Therefore, Malthus contributes to establishing the prototype of population economics. Another prominent contribution ofMalthus is that he draws out the consuming factor from many factors affecting population, in his early life. He believes that consumption will become the biggest problem with future population increase. Thus, Malthus advocates "effective consumption”, which is the cornerston e of his later theory of ter, he argues against his “effective consumption” theory by introducing the opposite theory of “general glut” in which he addresses the phenomena of economic crises [2]. His contribution to the principle of population is fundamental. Moreover, his theory of general glut has become the prototype of economic theories of the Great Depression. In addition, according to Malthus’ theory, Darwin realized that the survival competition not only occurred in the species, but also within the same species. People generally believe that Malthus’ principle of population is the foundation of Darwin’s theory of evolution.
On the other hand, Malthus’ theory of population also has an unscientific dimension. Malthus hypothesized that population growth is only influenced by the passion between the sexes. However, nowadays population growth in most of developed countries, including China, has entered a modern phase; people’s conception of birth compared with the sexual postulate that Malthus puts forward isdifferent. Furthermore, with the
development of science, people also realize that science and technology are the most significant contributionsto productivity, but Malthus almost ignores the innovation and effectiveness throughout the industrial revolution and technological advancement, because the time in which he lived. The rate of productivity increase even exceeds the rate of population growth in modern society.
Additionally, Malthus proposes that population increases at a geometrical rate and subsistence increases only at an arithmetical rate without any mathematical proofs or empirical evidence[4]. Hejust subjectively demonstrates his Malthusian trap theory without rigorous proof.Therefore，Malthus’ contribution to the theory of populationpartly reveals the negative side, which is not responsible for society.
From my perspective, although a lot people criticize that Malthus’ theories are useless, there are still many significant points worth learning fromhim. Some of these are: new perspectives in population research, construction of population economics and solution to problem of general glut. Additionally, China, as one of most populous countries, has effectively limited population growth in several ways, such as theone child policy, birth control and advocating late marriage. Actually, the last two methods are first advocated in the 2nd edition of An Essay on the Principle of Population [5]. All in all, the reason why Malthus’ contribution will always be discussed is because the Malthusian theory of population has its own controversial values. Thus, we need to critically analyze Malthus and his theory system from the historical and dialectical points of view.
Relevance:
[1] Geoffrey Gilbert, introduction to Malthus T.R. 1798. An Essay on the Principle of Population. Oxford World's Classics reprint. Viii
[2] Malthus's Theory of Effective Demand and Growth
[3] Steven G. Medema; Warren J. Samuels (2003). The History of Economic Thought: A Reader. Routledge. p. 291. ISBN 978-0-415-20550-4. Retrieved 14 June 2013.
[4] Malthus, Thomas. An Essay on the Principle of Population and A Summary View of the Principle of Population Penguin Books, London 1985
[5] Essay on Principles of Population 2ND EDITION by Thomas Robert Malthus and Philip Appleman. W.W. Norton & Co.,2004。