中宏Williamson-exercise chap01
12881-北大张延教授的宏观经济学讲义-28_20050602_9.3_part2_9.4_pa
∵ r = f′(k) ∴ r˙/r
= f′(k)˙/f′(k) = f″(k)k˙/f′(k)
《中宏》讲义,张延著。版权所有 27
• ∵ 在平衡增长路径上,k˙= 0 • ∴ r˙/ r = f″(k)k˙/ f′(k) = 0 • [ rK/Y ]˙/ [ rK/Y ] = r˙/ r = 0
/[ f(k) - k f′(k)]
• = A˙/ A - k f″(k)k˙/[ f(k) - k f′(k)]
《中宏》讲义,张延著。版权所有 24
• ∵ 在平衡增长路径上,k˙= 0
• ∴ w˙/w = A˙/ A = g • • [ wL/Y ]˙/( wL/Y ) = w˙/w – g = 0
(1.24a )
38
• ∵ 当k = k* 时, • k˙ = dk/dt = s f(k*) - ( n+g+δ)k* = 0
• ∴ s = ( n+g+δ)k*/ f(k*) 代入 (1.24a) •
∂k˙(k)/∂k│k=k*
• = [( n+g+δ) k* f'(k*)] / f(k*) - ( n+g+δ)
《中宏》讲义,张延著。版权所有 30
•
索洛模型中的平衡增长路径符合卡 尔多(1961年)描述过的关于增长的几个主 要特征事实(stylized facts):
•
1、对于大多数主要工业化国家而 言,在过去一个世纪中,劳动、资本、产 量的增长率大体上都是常数,这一说法是 一个合理的初步近似。
《中宏》讲义,张延著。版权所有 31
《中宏》讲义,张延著。版权所有 39
• ∵ f'(k*) k* / f(k*) • • • •
高级经济师教材书
高级经济师教材书
以下是一些高级经济师教材书的推荐:
1. 《宏观经济学》(Macroeconomics) by N. Gregory Mankiw
这本书是宏观经济学的经典教材之一,内容全面且易于理解,涵盖了宏观经济学的基本理论和政策分析。
2. 《微观经济学》(Microeconomics) by Robert S. Pindyck and Daniel L. Rubinfeld
这本书深入浅出地讲解了微观经济学的基本概念和原理,同时介绍了一些应用案例,帮助读者理解经济学的运作。
3. 《公司金融学》(Corporate Finance) by Stephen A. Ross, Randolph W. Westerfield, and Jeffrey Jaffe
这本书详细讨论了公司金融学的核心概念和理论,包括资本预算决策、融资策略和风险管理等内容,对于研究公司金融学非常有用。
4. 《国际金融学》(International Finance) by Maurice D. Levi
这本书介绍了国际金融学的基本理论和实践应用,涵盖了国际货币体系、汇率决策和国际投资等方面的内容。
5. 《计量经济学》(Econometrics) by James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson
这本书系统地介绍了计量经济学的基本概念和方法,包括回归分析、时间序列分析和面板数据分析等,对于经济数据的分析和预测非常有帮助。
这些教材都是高级经济师学习的重要参考书籍,涵盖了经济学的核心领域和理论分析方法。
私募股权投资基金课程
Private Equity(简称“PE”)在中国通常称为私募股权投资,指通过私募形式对私有企业,即非上市企业进行的权益性投资, 在交易实施过程中附带考虑了将来的退出机制,即通过上市、并购或管理层回购等方式,出售持股获利。
广义的私募股权投资为涵盖企业IPO前后各阶段的权益投资,即对处于种子期、初创期、发展期、扩展期、成熟期和Pre-IPO各个 时期企业所进行的投资,相关资本按照投资阶段可划分为创业投资(Venture Capital)、增长型基金(Growth-Oriented Fund)、 并购基金(Buy out/Buy in Fund)、Pre-IPO资本、上市后私募增发投资(Private Investment In Public Equity)、特别并购上 市(SPAC)、业务发展基金(Business Development Corporation)、不动产投资信托基金(REITs)等。
狭义的PE主要指对已经形成一定规模的,并产生稳定现金流的成熟企
业的私募股权投资部分,主要是指创业投资后期的私募股权投资部分,而这
其中并购基金和夹层资本在资金规模上占最大的一部分。在中国PE主要是 指这一类投资。
7
私募股权基金不是什么?
私募股权基金不是…
对冲基金:对冲基金是买卖上市公司股票的短期投资者,他们通常收购公司少数股权,使其可 以进出自如;而私募股权基金则是投资于私营公司的长期投资者。两者的主要区别在于私募股 权基金通过提升目标公司的经营业绩而赚钱,而且通常的持有期是5-7年,相比之下对冲基金 的持有期平均只有90天
活跃型对冲基金(Activist Hedge Funds):一般收购公司的少数股东权益,但是有一定的影 响力,一家活跃型对冲基金会和其他活跃型对冲基金合作,共同购买一家公司的少数股份,并 逼迫公司做出改善,或大规模的举措
金融博士书目
金融博士书目经济学、金融学博士书目(A:数学分析微分方程矩阵代数)微观金融学包括金融市场及金融机构研究、投资学金融工程学金融经济学、公司金融财务管理等方面,宏观金融学包括货币经济学货币银行学、国际金融学等方面,实证和数量方法包括数理金融学、金融计量经济学等方面,以下书目侧重数学基础、经济理论和数理金融学部分。
◎函数与分析《什么是数学》,牛津丛书●集合论Paul R. Halmos,Naive Set Theory 朴素集合论(美)哈莫斯(好书,深入浅出但过简洁)集合论(英文版)Thomas Jech(有深度)Moschovakis,Notes on Set Theory集合论基础(英文版)——图灵原版数学·统计学系列(美)恩德滕●数学分析○微积分Tom M. Apostol, Calculus vol Ⅰ&Ⅱ(数学家写的经典高等微积分教材/参考书,写法严谨,40年未再版,致力于更深刻的理解,去除微积分和数学分析间隔,衔接分析学、微分方程、线性代数、微分几何和概率论等的学习,学实分析的前奏,线性代数应用最好的多元微积分书,练习很棒,对初学者会难读难懂,但具有其他教材无法具备的优点。
Stewart 的书范围相同,也较简单。
)Carol and Robert Ash,The Calculus Tutoring Book(不错的微积分辅导教材)R. Courant, F. John, Introduction to Calculus and Analysis vol Ⅰ&Ⅱ(适合工科,物理和应用多)Morris Kline,Calculus, an intuitive approachRon LarsonCalculus (With Analytic Geometry(微积分入门教材,难得的清晰简化,与Stewart同为流行教材)《高等微积分》Lynn H.Loomis / Shlomo StermbergMorris Kline,Calculus: An Intuitive and Physical Approach (解释清晰的辅导教材)Richard Silverman,Modern Calculus with Analytic GeometryMichael,Spivak,Calculus(有趣味,适合数学系,读完它或者Stewart的就可以读Rudin 的Principles of Mathematical Analysis 或者Marsden的Elementary Classical Analysis,然后读Royden的Real Analysis学勒贝格积分和测度论或者Rudin的Functional Analysis 学习巴拿赫和希尔伯特空间上的算子和谱理论)James Stewart,Calculus(流行教材,适合理科及数学系,可以用Larson书补充,但解释比它略好,如果觉得难就用Larson的吧)Earl W. Swokowski,Cengage Advantage Books: Calculus: The Classic Edition(适合工科)Silvanus P. Thompson,Calculus Made Easy(适合微积分初学者,易读易懂)○实分析(数学本科实变分析水平)(比较静态分析)Understanding Analysis,Stephen Abbott,(实分析入门好书,虽然不面面俱到但清晰简明,Rudin, Bartle, Browder等人毕竟不擅于写入门书,多维讲得少)T. M. Apostol, Mathematical AnalysisProblems in Real Analysis 实分析习题集(美)阿里普兰斯,(美)伯金肖《数学分析》方企勤,北大胡适耕,实变函数《分析学》Elliott H. Lieb / Michael LossH. L. Royden, Real AnalysisW. Rudin, Principles of Mathematical AnalysisElias M.Stein,Rami Shakarchi, Real Analysis:MeasureTheory,Integration and Hilbert Spaces,实分析(英文版) 《数学分析八讲》辛钦《数学分析新讲》张筑生,北大社周民强,实变函数论,北大周民强《数学分析》上海科技社○测度论(与实变分析有重叠)概率与测度论(英文版)(美)阿什(Ash.R.B.),(美)多朗-戴德(Doleans-Dade,C.A.)?Halmos,Measure Theory,测度论(英文版)(德)霍尔姆斯○傅里叶分析(实变分析和小波分析各有一半)小波分析导论(美)崔锦泰H. Davis, Fourier Series and Orthogonal FunctionsFolland,Real Analysis:Modern Techniques and Their ApplicationsFolland,Fourier Analysis and its Applications,数学物理方程:傅里叶分析及其应用(英文版)——时代教育.国外高校优秀教材精选(美)傅兰德傅里叶分析(英文版)——时代教育·国外高校优秀教材精选(美)格拉法科斯B. B. Hubbard, The World According to Wavelets: The Story of a Mathematical Technique in the MakingKatanelson,An Introduction to Harmonic AnalysisR. T. Seeley, An Introduction to Fourier Series and IntegralsStein,Shakarchi,Fourier Analysis:An Introduction○复分析(数学本科复变函数水平)L. V. Ahlfors, Complex Analysis ,复分析——华章数学译丛,(美)阿尔福斯(Ahlfors,L.V.)Brown,Churchill,Complex Variables and Applications Convey, Functions of One Complex Variable Ⅰ&Ⅱ《简明复分析》龚升, 北大社Greene,Krantz,Function Theory of One Complex VariableMarsden,Hoffman,Basic Complex AnalysisPalka,An Introduction to Complex Function TheoryW. Rudin, Real and Complex Analysis 《实分析与复分析》鲁丁(公认标准教材,最好有测度论基础)Siegels,Complex VariablesStein,Shakarchi,Complex Analysis 《复变函数》庄坼泰●泛函分析(资产组合的价值)○基础泛函分析(实变函数、算子理论和小波分析)实变函数与泛函分析基础,程其衰,高教社Friedman,Foundations of Modern Analysis《实变与泛函》胡适耕《泛函分析引论及其应用》克里兹格泛函分析习题集(印)克里希南Problems and methods in analysis,Krysicki夏道行,泛函分析第二教程,高教社夏道行,实变函数与泛函分析《数学分析习题集》谢惠民,高教社泛函分析·第6版(英文版) K.Yosida《泛函分析讲义》张恭庆,北大社○高级泛函分析(算子理论)J.B.Conway, A Course in Functional Analysis,泛函分析教程(英文版)Lax,Functional AnalysisRudin,Functional Analysis,泛函分析(英文版)[美]鲁丁(分布和傅立叶变换经典,要有拓扑基础)Zimmer,Essential Results of Functional Analysis○小波分析Daubeches,Ten Lectures on WaveletsFrazier,An Introduction to Wavelets Throughout Linear Algebra Hernandez,《时间序列的小波方法》PercivalPinsky,Introduction to Fourier Analysis and WaveletsWeiss,A First Course on WaveletsWojtaszczyk,An Mathematical Introduction to Wavelets Analysis●微分方程(期权定价、动态分析)○常微分方程和偏微分方程(微分方程稳定性,最优消费组合)V. I. Arnold, Ordinary Differential Equations,常微分方程(英文版)(现代化,较难)W. F. Boyce, R. C. Diprima, Elementary Differential Equations and Boundary Value Problems《数学物理方程》陈恕行,复旦E. A. Coddington, Theory of ordinary differential equationsA. A. Dezin, Partial differential equationsL. C. Evans, Partial Differential Equations丁同仁《常微分方程教程》高教《常微分方程习题集》菲利波夫,上海科技社G. B. Folland, Introduction to Partial Differential EquationsFritz John, Partial Differential Equations《常微分方程》李勇The Laplace Transform: Theory and Applications,Joel L. Schiff(适合自学)G. Simmons, Differntial Equations With Applications and Historecal Notes索托梅约尔《微分方程定义的曲线》《常微分方程》王高雄,中山大学社《微分方程与边界值问题》Zill○偏微分方程的有限差分方法(期权定价)福西斯,偏微分方程的有限差分方法Kwok,Mathematical Models of Financial Derivatives(有限差分方法美式期权定价)?Wilmott,Dewynne,Howison,The Mathematics of Financial Derivatives (有限差分方法美式期权定价)○统计模拟方法、蒙特卡洛方法Monte Carlo method in finance (美式期权定价)D. Dacunha-Castelle, M. Duflo,Probabilités et Statistiques IIFisherman,Monte Carlo Glasserman,Monte Carlo Mathods in Financial Engineering (金融蒙特卡洛方法的经典书,汇集了各类金融产品)Peter Jaeckel,Monte Carlo Methods in Finance(金融数学好,没Glasserman的好)?D. P. Heyman and M. J. Sobel, editors,Stochastic Models, volume 2 of Handbooks in O. R. and M. S., pages 331-434. Elsevier Science Publishers B.V. (North Holland) Jouini,Option Pricing,Interest Rates and Risk ManagementD. Lamberton, B. Lapeyre, Introduction to Stochastic Calculus Applied to Finance (连续时间)N. Newton,Variance reduction methods for diffusion process :H. Niederreiter,Random Number Generation and Quasi-Monte Carlo Methods. CBMS-NSF Regional Conference Series in Appl. Math. SIAMW.H. Press and al.,Numerical recepies.B.D. Ripley. Stochastic SimulationL.C.G. Rogers et D. Talay, editors,Numerical Methods in Finance. Publicationsof the Newton Institute.D.V. Stroock, S.R.S. Varadhan,Multidimensional diffusion processesD. Talay,Simulation and numerical analysis of stochastic differential systems, a review. In P. Krée and W. Wedig, editors,Probabilistic Methods in Applied Physics, volume 451 of Lecture Notes in Physics, chapter 3, pages 54-96.P.Wilmott and al.,Option Pricing (Mathematical models and computation). Benninga,Czaczkes,Financial Modeling ○数值方法、数值实现方法Numerical Linear Algebra and Its Applications,科学社K. E. Atkinson, An Introduction to Numerical AnalysisR. Burden, J. Faires, Numerical Methods《逼近论教程》CheneyP. Ciarlet, Introduction to Numerical Linear Algebra and Optimisation, Cambridge Texts in Applied MathematicsA. Iserles, A First Course in the Numerical Analysis of Differential Equations, Cambridge Texts in Applied Mathematics 《数值逼近》蒋尔雄《数值分析》李庆杨,清华《数值计算方法》林成森J. Stoer, R. Bulirsch, An Introduction to Numerical AnalysisJ. C. Strikwerda, Finite Difference Schemes and Partial Differential Equations L. Trefethen, D. Bau, Numerical Linear Algebra《数值线性代数》徐树芳,北大其他(不必)《数学建模》Giordano《离散数学及其应用》Rosen《组合数学教程》Van Lint◎几何学和拓扑学(凸集、凹集)●拓扑学○点集拓扑学Munkres,Topology:A First Course《拓扑学》James R.MunkresSpivak,Calculus on Manifolds◎代数学(深于数学系高等代数)(静态均衡分析)○线性代数、矩阵论(资产组合的价值)M. Artin,AlgebraAxler, Linear Algebra Done RightCurtis,Linear Algeria:An Introductory ApproachW. Fleming, Functions of Several VariablesFriedberg, Linear Algebra Hoffman & Kunz, Linear AlgebraP.R. Halmos,Finite-Dimensional Vector Spaces(经典教材,数学专业的线性代数,注意它讲抽象代数结构而不是矩阵计算,难读)J. Hubbard, B. Hubbard, Vector Calculus, Linear Algebra, and Differential Forms: A Unified ApproachN. Jacobson,Basic Algebra Ⅰ&ⅡJain《线性代数》Lang,Undergraduate AlgeriaPeter D. Lax,Linear Algebra and Its Applications(适合数学系)G. Strang, Linear Algebra and its Applications(适合理工科,线性代数最清晰教材,应用讲得很多,他的网上讲座很重要)●经济最优化Dixit,Optimization in Economic Theory●一般均衡Debreu,Theory of Value●分离定理Hildenbrand,Kirman,Equilibrium Analysis(均衡问题一般处理)Magill,Quinzii,Theory of Incomplete Markets(非完备市场的均衡)Mas-Dollel,Whinston,Microeconomic Theory(均衡问题一般处理)Stokey,Lucas,Recursive Methods in Economic Dynamics (一般宏观均衡)经济学、金融学博士书目(B:概率论、数理统计、随机)◎概率统计●概率论(金融产品收益估计、不确定条件下的决策、期权定价)○基础概率理论(数学系概率论水平)《概率论》(三册)复旦Davidson,Stochastic Limit TheoryDurrett,The Essential of Probability,概率论第3版(英文版)W. Feller,An Introduction to Probability Theory and its Applications概率论及其应用(第3版)——图灵数学·统计学丛书《概率论基础》李贤平,高教G. R. Grimmett, D. R. Stirzaker, Probability and Random ProcessesRoss,S. A first couse in probability,中国统计影印版;概率论基础教程(第7版)——图灵数学·统计学丛书(例子多)《概率论》汪仁官,北大王寿仁,概率论基础和随机过程,科学社《概率论》杨振明,南开,科学社○基于测度论的概率论测度论与概率论基础,程式宏,北大D. L. Cohn, Measure TheoryDudley,Real Analysis and ProbabilityDurrett,Probability:Theory and ExamplesJacod,Protter,Probability Essentials Resnick,A Probability PathShirayev,Probability严加安,测度论讲义,科学社钟开莱,A Course in Probability Theory○随机过程微积分Introduction of diffusion processes (期权定价)K. L. Chung, Elementary Probability Theory with Stochastic ProcessesCox,Miller,The Theory of StochasticR. Durrett, Stochastic calculus黄志远,随机分析入门黄志远《随机分析学基础》科学社姜礼尚,期权定价的数学模型和方法,高教社《随机过程导论》KaoKarlin,Taylor,A First Course in Stochastic Prosses(适合硕士生)Karlin,Taylor,A Second Course in Stochastic Prosses(适合硕士生)随机过程,劳斯,中国统计J. R. Norris,Markov Chains(需要一定基础)Bernt Oksendal, Stochastic differential equations(绝佳随机微分方程入门书,专注于布朗运动,比Karatsas和Shreve的书简短好读,最好有概率论基础,看完该书能看懂金融学术文献,金融部分没有Shreve的好)Protter,Stochastic Integration and Differential Equations (文笔优美)D. Revuz, M. Yor, Continuous martingales and Brownian motion(连续鞅)Ross,Introduction to probability model(适合入门)Steel,Stochastic Calculus and Financial Application(与Oksendal的水平相当,侧重金融,叙述有趣味而削弱了学术性,随机微分、鞅)《随机过程通论》王梓坤,北师大○概率论、随机微积分应用(连续时间金融)Arnold,Stochastic Differential Equations《概率论及其在投资、保险、工程中的应用》BeanDamien Lamberton,Bernard Lapeyre. Introduction to stochastic calculus applied t o finance.David Freedman.Browian motion and diffusion.Dykin E. B. Markov Processes.Gihman I.I., Skorohod A. V.The theory of Stochastic processes 基赫曼,随机过程论,科学Lipster R. ,Shiryaev A.N. Statistics of random processes.Malliaris,Brock,Stochastic Methods in Economics and FinanceMerton,Continuous-time FinanceSalih N. Neftci,Introduction to the Mathematics of Financial DerivativesSteven E. Shreve ,Stochastic Calculus for Finance I: The Binomial Asset Pric ing Model;II: Continuous-Time Models(最佳的随机微积分金融(定价理论)入门书,易读的金融工程书,没有测度论基础最初几章会难些,离散时间模型,比Naftci的清晰,S hreve的网上教程也很优秀)Sheryayev A. N. Ottimal stopping rules.Wilmott p., J.Dewynne,S. Howison. Option Pricing: Mathematical Models and Compu tations.Stokey,Lucas,Recursive Methods in Economic Dynamics Wentzell A. D. A Course in the Theory of Stochastic Processes.Ziemba,Vickson,Stochastic Optimization Models in Finance○概率论、随机微积分应用(高级)Nielsen,Pricing and Hedging of Derivative SecuritiesRoss,《数理金融初步》An Introduction to Mathematical Finance:Options and othe r TopicsShimko,Finance in Continuous Time:A Primer○概率论、鞅论P. Billingsley,Probability and MeasureK. L. Chung & R. J. Williams,Introduction to Stochastic IntegrationDoob,Stochastic Processes严加安,随机分析选讲,科学○概率论、鞅论Stochastic processes and derivative products (高级)J. Cox et M. Rubinstein : Options MarketIoannis Karatzas and Steven E. Shreve,Brownian Motion and Stochastic Calculu s(难读的重要的高级随机过程教材,若没有相当数学功底,还是先读Oksendal的吧,结合Rogers & Williams的书读会好些,期权定价,鞅)M. Musiela - M. Rutkowski : (1998) Martingales Methods in Financial Modelling ?Rogers & Williams,Diffusions, Markov Processes, and Martingales: Volume 1, F oundations;Volume 2, Ito Calculus (深入浅出,要会实复分析、马尔可夫链、拉普拉斯转换,特别要读第1卷)David Williams,Probability with Martingales(易读,测度论的鞅论方法入门书,概率论高级教材)○鞅论、随机过程应用Duffie,Rahi,Financial Market Innovation and Security Design:An Introduction,Journal of Economic Theory Kallianpur,Karandikar,Introduction to Option Pricing TheoryDothan,Prices in Financial Markets (离散时间模型)Hunt,Kennedy,Financial Derivatives in Theory and Practice何声武,汪家冈,严加安,半鞅与随机分析,科学社Ingersoll,Theory of Financial Decision MakingElliott Kopp,Mathematics of Financial Markets(连续时间)Marek Musiela,Rutkowski,Martingale Methods in Financial Modeling(资产定价的鞅论方法最佳入门书,读完Hull书后的首选,先读Rogers & Williams、Karatzas and Sh reve以及Bjork打好基础)○弱收敛与随机过程收敛Billingsley,Convergence of Probability MeasureDavidson,Stochastic Limit TheoremEthier,Kurtz,Markov Process:Characterization and Convergence Hall,Marting ale Limit TheoremsJocod,Shereve,Limited Theorems for Stochastic Process Van der Vart,Weller,Weak Convergence and Empirical Process◎运筹学●最优化、博弈论、数学规划○随机控制、最优控制(资产组合构建)Borkar,Optimal control of diffusion processesBensoussan,Lions,Controle Impulsionnel et Inequations Variationnelles Chiang,Elements of Dynamic Optimization Dixit,Pindyck,Investment under UncertaintyFleming,Rishel,Deterministic and Stochastic Optimal ControlHarrison,Brownian Motion and Stochastic Flow SystemsKamien,Schwartz,Dynamic OptimizationKrylov,Controlled diffusion processes○控制论(最优化问题)●数理统计(资产组合决策、风险管理)○基础数理统计(非基于测度论)R. L. Berger, Cassell, Statistical InferenceBickel,Dokosum,Mathematical Stasistics:Basic Ideas andSelected TopicsBirrens,Introdution to the Mathematical and Statistical Foundation of Econom etrics数理统计学讲义,陈家鼎,高教Gallant,An Introduction to Econometric TheoryR. Larsen, M. Mars, An Introduction to Mathematical Statistics《概率论及数理统计》李贤平,复旦社Papoulis,Probability,random vaiables,and stochastic processStone,《概率统计》《概率论及数理统计》中山大学统计系,高教社○基于测度论的数理统计(计量理论研究)Berger,Statistical Decision Theory and Bayesian Analysis陈希儒,高等数理统计Shao Jun,Mathematical StatisticsLehmann,Casella,Theory of Piont EstimationLehmann,Romano,Testing Statistical Hypotheses《数理统计与数据分析》Rice○渐近统计Van der Vart,Asymptotic Statistics○现代统计理论、参数估计方法、非参数统计方法参数计量经济学、半参数计量经济学、自助法计量经济学、经验似然经济学、金融学博士书目(C:计量经济学、数理金融)统计学基础部分1、《统计学》《探索性数据分析》 David Freedman等,中国统计(统计思想讲得好)2、Mind on statistics 机械工业(只需高中数学水平)3、Mathematical Statistics and Data Analysis 机械工业(这本书理念很好,讲了很多新东西)4、Business Statistics a decision making approach 中国统计(实用)5、Understanding Statistics in the behavioral science 中国统计回归部分1、《应用线性回归》中国统计(蓝皮书系列,有一定的深度,非常精彩)2、Regression Analysis by example,(吸引人,推导少)3、《Logistics回归模型——方法与应用》王济川郭志刚高教(不多的国内经典统计教材)多元1、《应用多元分析》王学民上海财大(国内很好的多元统计教材)2、Analyzing Multivariate Data,Lattin等机械工业(直观,对数学要求不高)3、Applied Multivariate Statistical Analysis,Johnson & Wichem,中国统计(评价很高)《应用回归分析和其他多元方法》Kleinbaum《多元数据分析》Lattin时间序列1、《商务和经济预测中的时间序列模型》弗朗西斯著(侧重应用,经典)2、Forecasting and Time Series an applied approach,Bowerman & Connell(主讲Box-Jenkins(ARIMA)方法,附上了SAS和Minitab程序)3、《时间序列分析:预测与控制》 Box,Jenkins 中国统计《预测与时间序列》Bowerman抽样1、《抽样技术》科克伦著(该领域权威,经典的书。
几种经典中宏教材之我见
几种经典中宏教材之我见由于个人兴趣,把国内已经翻译出版的几种主要的中级宏观教材比较了一下,总结一点个人不成熟的学习建议。
本文主要比较的有:多恩布什(6版,人大);伯南克(6版,机械);布兰查德(3版,清华影印);易纲、X帆(人大);威廉森(2版,人大);巴罗(5版,人大);巴罗(现代观点,三联);曼昆(5版,人大);萨克斯(全球视角,三联)。
除后两本粗略翻过以外,其他的均读过。
首先说说自己对这几种教材的一般看法和分类。
类别自然是新凯恩斯与新古典两类,前者有多恩布什、伯南克、布兰查德、曼昆,后者有巴罗、威廉森。
萨克斯是个特例,最后再讲。
其次说说学习顺序以与对不同教材的评价。
个人觉得,我们国内的学生最好由新凯恩斯教材入手,一来与国内教材接轨密切,二来与现实结合紧密,能分析一些简单的政策问题,可以获得学习乐趣,三来如果你不想继续深造,那么新凯恩斯框架在你参与实际工作时能派上用场。
接着,对于那些想继续深造的学生,我坚决推荐必须读上一本新古典的教材。
至于为什么,我不再赘述,对现代经济学稍有了解的人都会知道。
下面,我就几种教材分别评述:在新凯恩斯主义的教材中,多恩布什应该是比较老的,优点是它把新凯恩斯主义的核心模型详细叙述了个遍,例如AD-AS模型的微观基础模型(这里的微观基础模型不同于新古典主义的微观基础)它有全面详细的介绍,而布兰查德就没有。
缺点是全书体系不是很清楚,需要自己细心整理。
曼昆的在体系方面就好了许多,而且也对新凯恩斯主义微观基础模型做了比较详细的探讨,唯一的缺点就是他脱离不了“原理式”的写作风格,因此数理深度稍有欠缺。
布兰查德与多恩布什刚好相反,体系十分严谨,结构十分清晰,论述也很有力,而且布兰查德是最不惮于在教材中运用数学的作者之一,因此他的书在数理模型方面远胜曼昆,唯一的缺点就是缺乏新凯恩斯主义微观基础模型。
伯南克的书在以上三本教材风行以后被翻译过来,就在各方面都显得很平庸了。
本来我对他教材的货币理论方面还给予了希望,结果也是很平庸。
中宏课件第五章Mundel-Fleming模型(开放
THANKS
感谢观看
价格水平固定假设意味着价格不 会随着经济状况的变化而变化,
即价格水平保持不变。
在这一假设下,模型通常不考虑 价格对经济活动的影响,而是关 注数量方面的变化,如生产量、
消费量和投资量等。
这一假设有助于简化模型,并使 分析更加集中于数量方面的变化
。
假设四:市场出清
市场出清假设意味着市场上的供给和 需求总是相等的,市场能够自动调节 达到均衡状态。
当时,西方国家面临经济滞胀和政策 失效的问题,该模型为政府制定财政 政策和货币政策提供了理论支持。
模型发展历程
该模型最初只包含两个方程, 描述了经济增长和财政政策的 关系。
随着研究的深入,该模型逐渐 扩展,加入了货币供应量、利 率等变量,使得模型更加复杂 和精确。
目前,该模型已经成为宏观经 济学的经典模型之一,被广泛 应用于学术研究和政策制定。
制定宏观经济政策
根据模型预测结果,制定 相应的宏观经济政策,以 实现经济增长、物价稳定 等目标。
货币政策制定中的应用
确定货币政策目标
根据模型预测结果,确定 货币政策的最终目标,如 稳定物价、促进经济增长 等。
制定货币政策工具
根据模型分析,选择合适 的货币政策工具,如利率 、存款准备金率等,以实 现货币政策目标。
02
Mundel-Fleming模型基本 假设
假设一:经济是封闭的
封闭经济的假设意味着该模型不考虑外国经济对本国经济的影响,假设本国经济是 一个独立的经济体。
在封闭经济的假设下,模型主要关注国内生产、消费、投资和政府支出等经济活动 。
这一假设有助于简化模型,使得分析更加集中和有针对性。
假设二:货币中性
货币中性假设意味着货币供应的 变化不会影响实际的经济活动, 即货币只是一种交易媒介,不具
Macroeconomics宏经计算题
1
A C T I V E L E A R N I N G 2: Answers
2004 (base yr) 2005
2006
P
QPQ
P
Q
good A $30 900 $31 1,000 $36 1050 good B $100 192 $102 200 $100 205
A. Compute nominal GDP in 2004.
▪ Find public saving, taxes, private saving,
national saving, and investment.
12
A C T I V E L E A R N I N G 1: Answers
Given: Y = 10.0, C = 6.5, G = 2.0, G – T = 0.3
13
A C T I V E L E A R N I N G 1B: Exercise
▪ Now suppose the government cuts taxes by
$200 billion.
▪ In each of the following two scenarios,
determine what happens to public saving, private saving, national saving, and investment.
Public saving = T – G = – 0.3 Taxes: T = G – 0.3 = 1.7 Private saving = Y – T – C = 10 – 1.7 – 6.5 = 1.8 National saving = Y – C – G = 10 – 6.5 – 2 = 1.5 Investment = national saving = 1.5
Chap001_lgm
Investment Styles
• Intuitive investing Rely on intuition and hunches: no analysis Self deception Good firm ≠ good investment
•
Passive investing: Beta
Accept market price as value: no analysis Undertake excess risk or pay too much
•
Fundamental investing: fundamental analysis; challenge market prices
• Debt Investors
Probability of default Determination of lending rates Covenant violations
• Customers
Security of supply
• Governments
Policy making Regulation Taxation Government contracting
Active investing: Alpha & Beta Defensive investing
1-8
Alphas and Betas
• Beta technologies:
Calculates risk measures: Betas Calculates the normal return for risk Ignores any arbitrage opportunities Example: Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) Tries to gain abnormal returns by exploiting arbitrage opportunities from mispricing
第0章 中宏简介
中级宏观经济学课程介绍国发院∙经双∙中宏1班教师:张帆zhangfan@助教:谭炜杰、时间:周三9-10节,周日9-10节地点:二教207答疑:周三5:10-5:40二教207或预约习题课:周日11-12节,二教207考试初步确定为:期中11月1日(周日),期末12月23 日(周三)什么是宏观经济学?宏观经济学(macroeconomics)是从整体上研究经济活动的经济学分支。
微观经济学研究个体(消费者、企业)的经济行为。
宏观经济学研究经济作为一个整体的行为。
微观与宏观:树木与森林。
全景视角。
微观经济学更像科学,宏观经济学更像艺术。
埋头苦干的是微观经济学家,出头露面的是宏观经济学家。
近年来,经济学家强调宏观经济学必须建立在坚实的微观基础上,宏观经济学的分析必须以微观经济学对个人和企业行为的理论研究为基础。
衣褶与骨骼。
考核与成绩作业(6次作业选5次最好的)20%期中考试30%期末考试40%课堂表现10%课堂作业和考试:选择题与计算题/问答题结合,中文。
讲课使用中文,主要术语用中英文表示,一些精彩引语用人物的英文介绍。
遵守纪律。
自主完成作业。
鼓励阅读亚洲金融时报网站。
/,鼓励参加“经济观察”等学术活动。
经常访问论坛。
/论坛上组织一些讨论。
参加课程讨论。
教科书曼昆,《宏观经济学》(第7版),中国人民大学出版社。
(Mankiw, Gregory, Macroeconomics, 8th ed., New York: Worth Publishers, 2013)主要参考书巴罗,《宏观经济学:现代观点》,格致出版社,2008. Barron, Robert, Macroeconomics: A Modern Approach. 2008.易纲、张帆,《宏观经济学》,中国人民大学出版社,2008年。
Nicholas Gregory "Greg" Mankiw(pronounced /ˈmæn.kjuː/; born 1958) is an American macroeconomist. From 2003 to 2005, was the chairman of President Bush's Council of Economic Advisors. His publications are ranked among the most influential of the over 22,000 economists registered with RePEc(Research Papers in Economics).Mankiw was born in Trenton, New Jersey to Ukrainian parents. He graduated from Princeton University in 1980 with a BA in Economics. He spent a year working on his Ph.D. at MIT and a subsequent year studying at Harvard Law School. He worked as a staff economist for the Council of Economic Advisers from 1982–83. He earned his Ph.D. in Economicsfrom MIT in 1984. He returned to Harvard Law for a year but, having nearly completed his PhD and realizing he was not as comparatively good at law, he left to teach at MIT for a year and then became an assistant professor of Economics at Harvard University in 1985 and full professor in 1987.He was appointed by President George W. Bush as Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors in 2003. He has resumed teaching at Harvard, taking over the introductory economics course Social Analysis 10. This is the same course that had been taught for many years by Martin Feldstein, and which had long used Mankiw's textbook.He has written two popular college-level textbooks: one in intermediate macroeconomics and the more famous Principles of Economics. More than one million copies of the books have been sold in seventeen languages.Mankiw is a New Keynesian economist. He did important work on menu costs, which are a source of price stickiness. Mankiw has become an influential figure in the Blogosphere and online journalism since launching his blog. The blog, originally designed to assist his Ec10 students, has gained a readership that extends far beyond students of introductory economics.与巴罗宏观经济学的区别:更全面、正统,简洁缺点:创新不够新凯恩斯主义宏观经济学简介什么是宏观经济学?我为什么要学习宏观经济学?宏观经济学要研究哪些问题?宏观经济学用什么方法来研究?宏观经济的大图景。
威廉森《宏观经济学》笔记和课后习题详解(经济周期的衡量)【圣才出品】
第3章经济周期的衡量3.1 复习笔记一、GDP波动的规律性经济周期(business cycles)的主要明显特征是:围绕着实际GDP的趋势波动。
1.理想化的经济周期图3-1显示了实际GDP中理想化的经济周期,它围绕着长期趋势波动。
实际GDP有波峰(peaks)和波谷(troughs),波峰是对趋势相对大的正偏离,波谷是对趋势相对大的负偏离。
偏离实际GDP趋势中的波峰和波谷被称为拐点(turning points)。
对趋势的最大偏离称作经济周期的波幅(amplitude)。
实际GDP中波峰每年发生的次数称作经济周期的频率(frequency)。
图3-1 理想化的经济周期2.偏离GDP趋势的特征(1)对实际GDP趋势的偏离具有持续性。
(2)偏离实际GDP趋势的时间序列很不稳定。
(3)实际GDP围绕趋势波动的幅度没有规律性,一些波峰和波谷意味着对趋势的巨大偏离,而另一些波峰和波谷则意味着对趋势的小幅偏离。
(4)实际GDP围绕趋势波动的频率没有规律性。
实际GDP中波峰和波谷之间的时间跨度变化很大。
二、联动1.联动(comovement)尽管实际GDP波动具有不规律的形式,但宏观经济诸变量一起波动的格局显示出了较强的规律性,这些波动格局称为联动。
2.单个宏观经济变量与实际GDP的联动(1)顺周期的(procyclical):一个经济变量对趋势的偏离和对实际GDP趋势的偏离正相关;(2)逆周期的(countercyclical):一个经济变量对趋势的偏离和对实际GDP趋势的偏离负相关;(3)非周期的(acyclical):既不顺周期,也不逆周期。
3.相关系数(correlation coefficient)它是衡量两个变量相关程度的指标。
其取值范围是-1~1。
如果相关系数为1,那么两个变量完全正相关(perfectly positively correlated);如果相关系数为-1,那么两个变量完全负相关(perfectly negatively correlated);如果相关系数为0,那么两个变量不相关。
张延老师宏观课件2008
•第四章产品市场和货币市场的•同时均衡:IS -LM模型2008-3-19 中宏(10)《中宏》讲义,张延著。
版权所有2•§4.1 产品市场均衡:IS曲线•分析思路:•逐步放松假设的过程•简化模型──────────→普遍模型•外生变量变为内生变量的过程2008-3-19 中宏(10)《中宏》讲义,张延著。
版权所有4•一、投资的决定:•I = I-bRo:•1、自发投资Io•为获得最大收益而进行的投资,是一种追求利润最大化的自发行为。
•自发投资的大小取决于资本的边际效率。
2008-3-19 中宏(10)《中宏》讲义,张延著。
版权所有6•资本的边际效率:每增加一单位投资所导致的收益的变动量( = ΔTR/ΔI )•等价于资本收益率、投资收益率。
•资本的边际效率视为一个外生变量。
2008-3-19 中宏(10)《中宏》讲义,张延著。
版权所有7•2、引致投资-bR:•投资的成本:•如果投资的钱为借贷而来→R是显成本。
•如果投资的钱为自有资金→R是隐成本。
•从机会成本的角度看:用R来衡量投资的机会成本是适宜的。
2008-3-19 中宏(10)《中宏》讲义,张延著。
版权所有8•b:用来衡量投资对利率变动的敏感程度•投资的利率弹性。
•弹性= 边际量= Δ因变量/Δ自变量•= ΔI/ΔR•利率每增加一个单位,导致的投资的变动量。
2008-3-19 中宏(10)《中宏》讲义,张延著。
版权所有9•-bR= (ΔI/ΔR )R ,是R 的变动所导致的I 的变动量,•∵R↑─→投资的成本│-bR│↑•─→总投资I↓•∴由R 引致的投资的下降,由R 引致的负投资。
2008-3-19 中宏(10)《中宏》讲义,张延著。
版权所有10•∵随着R↑,I 或多或少地会↓,•I 与R反方向变动,ΔI/ΔR <0•∴如果定义:b >0 ,•则:-b = ΔI/ΔR <02008-3-19 中宏(10)《中宏》讲义,张延著。
12889-北大张延教授的宏观经济学讲义-8_20050317_3.2_3.3_part1
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乘数用 k 代表。 乘数最早由英国经济学家 在1931年提出。
Kahn
《中宏》讲义,张延著。版权所有
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自变量(起因):Co、 Io 、Go 、TRo 、To、 c ↓ ↓ 因变量(结果): Y 乘数: Y ↓ Y kg ↓ Y ktr ↓ ↓ Y Y
kCo ki
kTo kc
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《中宏》讲义,张延著。版权所有
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把②至⑦带入①,得到: Y = AD = Co + Io + Go +cTRo – cTo + cY ╰───╮╭────╯ ↓ AD 截距(用Ao表示) AD 斜率 Y* = (Co + Io + Go +cTRo – cTo)/(1- c) = Ao/(1- c)
《中宏》讲义,张延著。版权所有 40
结论,则深刻地体现了宏观经济学和微
观经济学之间的矛盾、互斥。
《中宏》讲义,张延著。版权所有
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• 微观经济学
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宏观经济学
《中宏》讲义,张延著。版权所有 14
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5、根源于宏、微观经济学假设的不同
消费致富论的适用条件: 深度萧条的背景 下,生产能力闲置,价格刚性,总需求决定总供 给,总供给不会成为约束总需求的条件。
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2、乘数的各种求法: (1)乘数的第一种求法 —— 等比数列求和法:
已知:ΔG = 100 (用于公共工程, 例如:用于铺设道路), c = 0.8(适用于各行各业) 求: ΔY = ?
《中宏》讲义,张延著。版权所有 45
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ΔC ΔI ΔG ΔAD ΔY
第一轮 第二轮 第三轮 第四轮 …… 第n 轮 80 64 51.2 …… …… ……
Williamson宏观
威廉森宏观经济学重点整理——致吴漾名词解释Chapter 2Value-added : The value added of goods produced minus the value of intermediate goods used in production.增加值:创造的产品价值减去用于生产的中间产品价值Investment: Goods produced in the current period but not consumed in the current period投资:当期生产但不当期消费的产品和服务Consumer price index(CPI): Expenditures on base year quantities at current year prices divided by total expenditures on base year quantities at base year prices,all multiplied by 100消费价格指数:按当年价格计算的基年支出额除以按基年价格计算的基年支出额,然后再除以100Chapter 3Comovement: How aggregate economic variable move together over the business cycle联动:在经济周期中,总体经济变量如何一起变动Time series: Sequential measurements of economic variable over time.时间序列:对某一经济变量进行时间上的连续衡量Chapter4Normal good: A good for which consumption increases as income increases正常品:随收入增加而增加的消费品Marginal product: The additional output produced when another unit of a factor of production is added to the production process边际产量:当生产过程中再投入1单位生产要素时所增加的产量Chapter 5Public goods: Goods that are difficult or impossible for the private sector to provide,for example ,national defense.难以或不可能由私人部门提供的物品,比如国防Exogenous variable: A variable determined outside the model外生变量:有模型外的因素决定的变量Pareto optimality: Astate of the economy that cannot be improved on by making one consumer better off without making another worse off帕累托最优:不是其他人的境况恶化就无法让一个人的境况改善的一种经济状态。
中宏Blanchard错题集
错题集:questions:1.What shift the IS/LM curve left/right?2. What make them flatter/steeper?14. In the money market, the demand for money primarily depends on:a) The interest rate and the level of real outputb) The inflation rate and the level of real outputc) The interest rate and the level of nominal outputd) The inflation rate and the level of nominal output16. An increase in the money supply will cause the LM curve to:a) Shift to the rightb) Shift to the leftc) Become steeperd) Become flatterAn increase in the risk premium on bonds will cause the LM curve to:a) Shift to the rightb) Shift to the leftc) Become steeperd) Become flatterAnswer: b) Shift to the leftIf the LM curve is vertical, it implies that:a) The economy is in a liquidity trapb) Money demand is perfectly elasticc) Money demand is perfectly inelasticd) The interest rate has no effect on money demandAnswer: c) Money demand is perfectly inelasticAccording to the Pigou effect, a fall in the price level will:从收入效应出发,得到p的下降促进人们更多去消费商品从而使C提高a) Increase real money balances, leading to an increase in consumptionb) Decrease real money balances, leading to a decrease in consumptionc) Increase real money balances, leading to an increase in investmentd) Decrease real money balances, leading to a decrease in investmentAnswer: a) Increase real money balances, leading to an increase in consumptionIn the Mundell-Fleming model, an increase in government spending under a fixed exchange rate regime will: 蒙代尔弗莱明模型:不可能三角:一个经济体不能同时保持固定汇率、资本自由流动和独立的货币政策a) Appreciate the domestic currencyb) Depreciate the domestic currencyc) Have no effect on the exchange rated) Lead to a balance of payments surplusAnswer: c) Have no effect on the exchange rateThe Tobin effect suggests that an increase in inflation will:π↑,M d↓,r↓a) Increase the demand for moneyb) Decrease the demand for moneyc) Have no effect on the demand for moneyd) Lead to a higher nominal interest rateAnswer: b) Decrease the demand for money托宾表示情况并非如此,因为他们认为如果通货膨胀率上升,实际利率r 会下降,这意味着总体效果将是i 不会以1:1 的比例上升与通货膨胀。
高级宏观经济学课件(厦门大学,龚敏) chap 1
Lecture 1 The Solow Growth Model Romer(2001), Advanced Macroeconomics, Chapter 1 Blanchard, Olivier J., 2nd edition, Macroeconomics, Prentice Hall曼昆,《宏观经济学》,人民大学,2000年巴罗,萨拉伊马丁,《经济增长》,中国社会科学出版社,2000年Some Basic Facts about Economic Growth Assumptions of One-Sector Growth Models The Dynamics of the ModelThe Impact of a Change in the Saving Rate The Speed of ConvergenceThe Solow Model and the Central Questions of Growth TheoryEmpirical Applications一、Some Basic Facts about EconomicGrowth: the stylized facts of growth1. Economic growth through deep time(F2)2. The stylized facts✓ 0,>>y L Y (F3)✓ o k L K >> ,(F4)✓ t cons Y K Y K tan ,== (F5)✓ t cons YP Y W t cons YP t cons K P tan 1,tan ,tan =-====ρ3. international differences in the standard of living (F6)4. The Solow growth modelThe ultimate objective of research on economic growth is to determine whether there are possibilities for raising overall growth or bringing standards of living in poor countries closer to those in the worldleaders.The Solow model is the starting point for almost all analyses of growth.The principal conclusion of the Solow model is that the accumulation ofphysical capital cannot account for either the vast growth over time in output per person or the cast geographic differences in output per person. The model treats other potential sources of differences in real incomes as either exogenous and thus not explained by the model.( in the case of technological progress) or absent altogether(in the case of positive externalities from capital).二、 Basic assumptions of one-sectorgrowth models1. Input and Output),(t t t t L A K F Y1) Labor-augmenting orHarrod-neutral),(t t t t L K A F Y = capitalaugmenting),(t t t t L K F A Y = Hicks-ueutral2) The ratio of capital to output, K/Y, eventually settles down3) Constant returns to scale(first-degree homogeneity)✓ The economy is big enough that the gains from specializationhave been exhausted.✓ Inputs other than capital, labor, and knowledge are relativelyunimportant.4) intensive form :✓ The amount of output per unit of effective labor depends only on the quantity of capital perunit of effective labor, and not on the overall size of theeconomy.✓ output per worker)(k Af ALY A L Y == 5) Assumptions0)0(=f0,0<''>'f f0)(lim )(lim 0='∞='∞→→k f k f k k ( Inada conditions)✓ The path of the economy does not diverge✓ Cobb-Douglas functionαα==k ALK k f )()( 2. the evolution of the input into production1) Labor and knowledge grow at constant rates:nt L L nL L eL L t t tnt t +=⇔=⇔=00ln )ln( gt L A gA A eA A t tt gt t +=⇔=⇔=00ln )ln(2) Investment and capital formation t t t t t sY S I dtdK dt dK I S GI T S =====+=+ t t t K sY K δ-=三、 The simple dynamics of growth model1. The Harrod-Domar model1) The fixed-coefficients productionfunction⎥⎦⎤⎢⎣⎡αυ=t t t L K Y ,min2) Saving, investment, and the warranted rate of growthυ==s I Y 3) Labor force growth:g n Y +=4) The Harrod-Domar condition:υ=+s g n2. The Solow model1) Cobb-Douglas function(F7)kk y ALK AL YK Y k k MPk k MPk k ALY y AL K Y )(10)1()(0)(211===υ<-αα=∂∂>α====-α-ααα-α2) The dynamics of kg y LY k f LeK f Le Y E Y y E K F Y e L E gt gt t t t tg n t +=======+ )()()(),()(0O ne way: actual and break-even investmentk g n k sf k dtdk t t )()(δ++-== 0)()(>⇒δ++>k k g n k sf t, k is rising 0)()(>⇒δ++<kk g n k sf t , k is falling 0)()(>⇒δ++=kk g n k sf t , k is constant *)(*)(k g n k sf δ++=T he second way: speedk g n k sf k dtdk t t )()(δ++-== )()()ln(δ++-=g n kk sf dt k d t t )(**)(δ++=g n k k sf )()ln(1δ++-=-αg n sk dtk d t t )]([)ln()()ln(1δ++-⨯α=α==-ααg n sk dtk d dt k dlin dt y d t t t t3) the balanced growth path*************)(*k A L K y A L Y y k Y K k L A K Y L A Y k f y t t t t tt t t t t t t t t ======**)(k sg n k f ++δ=)]()([)()()),((t t t t t tt t t t t t t k f k k f A k f L K k f A dL L A K F d w '-='-== )()),((t t t t t k f dKL A K F d r '== t t t t t Y K r L w =+The Solow model implies that,regardless of its starting point, theeconomy converges to a balancedgrowth path --- a situation where eachvariable of the model is growing at aconstant rate. On the balancedgrowth path, the growth rate ofoutput per worker is determinedsolely by the rate of technologicalprogress.四、The impact of a change in the savingrateThe division of the government’spurchanses between consumption andinvestment goods, the division of itsrevenues between taxed and borrowing,and its tax treatments of saving andinvestment are all likely to affect the fraction of output that is invested.1. the impact on output(F24,F25)A change in the saving rate has a level effect but not a growth effec t: it changes the economy’s balanced growt h path, and thus the level of output per worker at any point in time, but it does not affect the growth rate of output per worker in the balanced growth path.In the Solow model only changes in the rate of technological progress have growth effects; all other changes have only level effects .2. saving and consumption (welfare) )()()()1(t t t t k sf k f k f s c -=-=*)(*)(*)(*)(*)()1(*);(**k g n k f k sf k f k f s c s k k δ++-=-=-== sg n s k g n g n s k f s c ∂δ∂δ++-δ'=∂∂),,,(*)](),,,(*([*if )(),,,(*(δ++>δ'g n g n s k f ,0*>∂∂s c if )(),,,(*(δ++<δ'g n g n s k f ,0*<∂∂s c if )(),,,(*(δ++=δ'g n g n s k f , 0*=∂∂sc the golden-rule level of the capital stock: Consumption is at its maximum possible level among balanced growth paths . δ++=δ'=g n g n s k f MPK )),,,(*(Quantitative Implications1. The effect of s on output in the long run sg n s k k f s y ∂δ∂'=∂∂),,,(**)(*),,,(*)()),,,(*(δδ++=δg n s k g n g n s k sf 0*)()(*)(*>'-δ++=∂∂k f s g n k f s k?*)](/*)(*[1*)(/*)(***k f k f k k f k f k s y y s '-'=∂∂⋅*)(/*)(*k f k f k 'is the elasticity of output with respect to capital at *k k =. Denoting this by *)(k K α*)(1*)(**k k s y y s K K α-α=∂∂⋅If markets are competitive and there are no externalities, *)(/*)(*k f k f k ' is the share of total income that goes to capital on the balanced growth path.31*)(≈αk K 21**=∂∂⋅⇒s y y s A 10% increase in the saving rate (from20% of output to 22%) raises output per worker in the long run by about 5% relative to the path it would have followed.Significant changes in saving have only moderate effects on the level of output on the balanced growth path.2. The speed of convergence1) One way)()(δ++-==γg n kk sf k k k k k f )(资本的平均产品。
有关趋势跟踪的书
有关趋势跟踪的书
以下是几本关于趋势跟踪的书籍:
1. 《趋势跟踪实战指南》(Trend Following: How to Make a Fortune in Bull, Bear, and Black Swan Markets) - 作者:Michael W. Covel
这本书详细介绍了趋势跟踪的原理、策略和技巧,以及如何在不同市场环境下利用趋势跟踪实现盈利。
2. 《穿越股市的趋势:用技术分析发现赚钱机会》(Trend Qualification and Trading: Techniques to Identify the Best Trends to Trade) - 作者:L. A. Little
这本书介绍了如何利用技术分析的工具和方法来识别和利用股票市场中的趋势信号,并提供了一些实用的交易策略。
3. 《趋势跟踪:传统方法与现代技术》(Trend Following: How Great Traders Make Millions in Up or Down Markets) - 作者:CFA Michael W. Covel 这本书探讨了趋势跟踪的历史和理论,并通过详细的案例研究展示了趋势跟踪交易策略的实际应用。
4. 《趋势跟踪投资策略》(Trend Following: How to Make a Fortune in Bull, Bear and Black Swan Markets) - 作者:Andreas Clenow
这本书介绍了一种基于均线和动量指标的趋势跟踪投资策略,通过详细的量
化研究和案例分析,展示了这种策略在不同市场条件下的盈利能力。
请注意,这些书籍提供了不同作者和观点的趋势跟踪方法,你可以根据自己的兴趣和需求选择适合自己的读物。
中宏复习课件
身工资水平的相对上升。 如果是前者,工人不会提供更多劳动;如果是后者,工人应提供更 多劳动。 由于存在不完全信息,工人只好折中处理,多工作一点。 Lucas在市场出清(理性预期)的分析框架内揭示了在短期内存在 Phillips曲线。
索罗模型的基本结论
稳定状态的增长速度等于技术进步率
(经济增长的引擎是技术进步) 储蓄率等变动对收入水平有影响,对增 长速度没有影响 落后经济体能够赶超富裕经济体。
FIGURE 4-1B (a) SOLOW GROWTH MODEL VS. (b) ENDOGENOUS GROWTH
FIGURE 4-2 A CHOICE BETWEEN A STEADY STATE AND CONTINUED GROWTH
新凯恩斯主义的解释:工资交错调整
出发点:劳资双方是合同关系,工资等不可能随时调整,比如每年
调整一次;而且分两批调整,A批是每年1月、B批是每年7月。 假定2005年10月,对劳动的需求增加,工资将会如何调整?
W*
w0 2005.10 2006.1
?
时间 2006.7
两点补充:为什么不经常调整工资?(菜单成本理论)厂商为什么 不和失业者谈判?(内部人-外部人模型,效率工资理论)
失业 失业率 利率 实际利率 名义利率 汇率
2增长理论
• 增长核算 • 索洛模型 • 新增长理论
增长核算方程的经济学含义
Y Y
[(1 ) N N ] ( K K ) A A
实际GDP的增长率取决于技术进步增长率, 资本和劳动的加权平均增长率
y y
k k A A
投资组合理论与资本市场
名著名称:投资组合理论与资本市场金融学科名著名称英文原版William F. Sharpe, Portfolio Theory and Capital Markets [M]. The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 1970(First Edition);2000 (Second Edition)中文译版威谦F. 夏普, 投资组合理论与资本市场[M]. 胡坚译, 北京: 机械工业出版社, 2001名著内容简介《投资组合理论与资本市场》是第一本把多少世纪以来的定价和风险知识联系在一起,并以精确的、简明易懂的和显著有效的方式表述的著作。
该书向广泛的读者介绍了CAPM。
通过解释每一种投资会遭受两种显著的风险---位于市场中的系统性风险和与一个公司命运相关的非系统性风险,CAPM代表了一种数量化的、复杂的但是可以理解的度量与投资者承担风险的收益相匹配的组合风险的模型。
CAPM已经成为现代投资理论的核心,并且奠定了作者作为金融巨人的地位。
CAPM定价理论的延伸和发展摘要:资本资产定价模型是一个在资产收益率和风险不确定条件下关于资产定价的均衡模型。
其实, 关于资产选择和定价的理论, 自19 世纪以来就一直争论颇多, 在此之前的古典学派和新古典的理论往往把对实体经济的研究作为经济研究对象的主导, 对资产的定价和选择多用利润入手, 即便货币理论也没有跨出对利息分析的局限。
传统的理论较少考虑资产收益率的问题, 因而难以解释资本市场的相关问题。
直到费雪和希克斯, 才开始提出过用概率分布描述资产收益率的不确定性, 以测量投资者的偏好。
但严格意义上说, 现代资产定价和选择理论始于马科维芙1952年公开发表的《资产选择》, 其后, 他支持他的学生威廉·夏普把组合与单因素联系起来, 对原有理论进行了改进, 其后林特纳等人也得出了相近的观点。
直到目前行为经济学的流行, 都在批评中对CAPM 理论进行了完善。
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Macroeconomics, 3e (Williamson)Chapter 1 I ntroduction1) I n 2005, the per-capita GDP in the United States was aboutA) $17,500.B) $27,500.C) $37,500.D) $47,500.Answer: CQuestion Status: N ew2) W hich of the following topics is NOT a primary concern of macroeconomists?A) f luctuations in the level of economic activityB) d ifferences in standards of living across countriesC) r elative wages of skilled and unskilled workersD) u nemploymentAnswer: CQuestion Status: P revious Edition3) W hich of the following questions is of most interest for MACROECONOMISTS?A) W hy is there inflation?B) W hy does the steel industry want tariffs?C) W hat is the appropriate stance of antitrust policy?D) W hy do foreigners immigrate to the United States?Answer: AQuestion Status: P revious Edition4) P rimarily, macroeconomists use microeconomic principles to studyA) b usiness cycles and trends in the stock market.B) l ong-run economic growth and antitrust policies.C) t rends in the stock market and long-term economic growth.D) l ong-run economic growth and business cycles.Answer: DQuestion Status: P revious Edition5) T he two most important American business cycle events of the twentieth century wereA) t he Great Depression and stagflation.B) W orld War II and the Great Depression.C) t he productivity slowdown and the Great Depression.D) g overnment budget deficits and World War II.Answer: BQuestion Status: P revious Edition6) O ver the course of the twentieth century, the typical AmericanA) r emained equally as rich.B) b ecame twice as rich.C) b ecame five times as richD) b ecame eight times as rich.Answer: DQuestion Status: P revious Edition7) W hich of the following assertions is false?A) T he Great Depression was a typical business cycle.B) V ery rapid growth occurred during World War II.C) R eal GDP per capita dipped about 30% during the Great Depression.D) O n average, the U.S. economy grows at a rate of 2.1%.Answer: AQuestion Status: N ew8) T he relationship between the level of growth of an economic variable, g t , and its level, y t , is best approximated asA) g t = 1t t y y −. B) g t = log y t – log y t -1.C) y t = log g t - log g t -1.D) l og g t = y t – y t -1.Answer: BQuestion Status: P revious Edition9) T he business cycle component of the log of real per-capita GNP is equal toA) l og of actual real GNP - log of trend GNP.B) l og of trend GNP ÷ log of actual real GNP.C) l og of trend GNP - log of actual real GNP.D) l og of actual real GNP ÷ log of trend GNP.Answer: AQuestion Status: P revious Edition10) F or the study of economic growth, it is most helpful to examine movements in ________; forthe study of business cycles, it is most helpful to examine movements in ________.A) t rend GNP; trend GNPB) t rend GNP; deviations from trend in GNPC) d eviations from trend in GNP; trend GNPD) d eviations from trend in GNP; deviations from trend in GNPAnswer: BQuestion Status: P revious Edition11) O ver the twentieth century, growth in per-capita GNP was highestA) i mmediately prior to the Great Depression.B) d uring World War II.C) d uring the 1960s.D) d uring the 1980s.Answer: BQuestion Status: P revious Edition12) W hen we say the U.S. economy has grown on average at 2.1%, we meanA) t he inflation rate.B) t he growth rate of nominal GDP.C) t he growth rate of per-capita nominal GDP.D) t he growth rate of per-capita real GDP.Answer: DQuestion Status: N ew13) A useful macroeconomic modelA) i s extremely realistic.B) i s simple.C) n ever generates testable hypotheses.D) p rovides a lot of intricate details.Answer: BQuestion Status: P revious Edition14) T he structure of a macroeconomic model involves all of the following exceptA) t he available technology.B) t he behavior of consumers and firms.C) t he preferences of consumers.D) t he available resources.Answer: BQuestion Status: P revious Edition15) W hat characterizes a competitive equilibrium?A) M arkets are rationed.B) G overnments stay out of the market.C) E conomic agents are price-takers.D) I t is costly to experiment with policies.Answer: CQuestion Status: N ew16) T he development most responsible for the wide-spread introduction of macroeconomicmodels built upon solid microeconomic foundations was theA) w ork of John Maynard Keynes.B) r ational expectation revolution.C) p opularization of supply-side economics.D) d evelopment of the Keynesian coordination failure model.Answer: BQuestion Status: P revious Edition17) A ccording to the Lucas critique, changes in economic policy are likely to have importanteffects onA) t he available amounts of natural resources.B) t he behavior of consumers and firms.C) t he preferences of consumers.D) n one of the aboveAnswer: BQuestion Status: P revious Edition18) C urrent macroeconomic models use microeconomic principles becauseA) t hey use the same language for all economists.B) t hey highlight the sociological aspects of production.C) t he behavior of economic agents changes with policy.D) w e live in a democratic society and everybody has a say.Answer: CQuestion Status: N ew19) W hat do macroeconomists not agree on?A) t hat microeconomic principles should be usedB) w hat generates business cyclesC) h ow to build models of growthD) t hat economic agents optimizeAnswer: BQuestion Status: N ew20) A ccording to money surprise theory, the primary causes of business cycles areA) s hocks to aggregate demand.B) m onetary factors.C) t echnology shocks.D) w aves of self-fulfilling optimism and pessimism.Answer: BQuestion Status: P revious Edition21) A ccording to real business cycle theory, the primary causes of business cycles areA) s hocks to aggregate demand.B) m onetary factors.C) t echnology shocks.D) w aves of self-fulfilling optimism and pessimism.Answer: CQuestion Status: P revious Edition22) A ccording to Keynesian coordination failure theory, the primary causes of business cyclesareA) s hocks to aggregate demand.B) m onetary factors.C) t echnology shocks.D) w aves of self-fulfilling optimism and pessimism.Answer: DQuestion Status: P revious Edition23) T he macroeconomic model that is most supportive of the role of government policy aimed atsmoothing business cycles is theA) r eal business cycle model.B) m oney surprise model.C) K eynesian coordination failure model.D) S olow growth model.Answer: CQuestion Status: P revious Edition24) T wo important theories of unemployment areA) g ame theory and search theory.B) s earch theory and the efficiency wage theory.C) t he efficiency wage theory and the quantity theory.D) t he quantity theory and game theory.Answer: BQuestion Status: P revious Edition25) W hat is produced and consumed in the economy is determined jointly byA) g overnment policies and the economy's productive capacity.B) t he economy's productive capacity and the preferences of consumers.C) t he preferences of consumers and the behavior of business managers.D) t he behavior of business managers and government policies.Answer: BQuestion Status: P revious Edition26) I mprovements in a country's standard of living are brought about in the long run byA) t echnological progress.B) g rowth in the population.C) c onstructing more machines and buildings.D) i mmigration policy.Answer: AQuestion Status: P revious Edition27) B usiness cycles areA) e ach unique, but all have a single cause.B) e ach unique and they can have many causes.C) s imilar, and they all have a single cause.D) s imilar, but they can have many causes.Answer: DQuestion Status: P revious Edition28) A tax cut isA) a n improvement for almost all agents.B) a free lunch.C) a reallocation of resources from the future to the present.D) a bad policy for almost all agents.Answer: CQuestion Status: N ew29) I n the long run, inflation is caused byA) a ggressive labor unions.B) g reedy monopolists.C) f ast growth in the money supply.D) g lobal warming.Answer: CQuestion Status: P revious Edition30) I n the long run, the quantity of moneyA) d oes not matter.B) i nfluences GDP.C) i nfluences unemployment.D) i nfluences the business cycle.Answer: AQuestion Status: N ew31) A trade-off between aggregate output and inflationA) i s theoretically possible, but has never been observed in practice.B) m ay exist in the short run, but not in the long run.C) m ay exist in the long run, but not in the short run.D) e xists in both the short run and the long run.Answer: BQuestion Status: P revious Edition32) W hich is not a cause for business cycles considered by macroeconomists?A) s hocks to money supplyB) e lectionsC) s hocks to technological abilityD) v ariations in optimismAnswer: BQuestion Status: N ew33) A productivity slowdown was observed from theA) e arly 1950s to the late 1960s.B) e arly 1960s to the early 1970s.C) l ate 1960s to the early 1980s.D) m id-1980s to the late 1990s.Answer: CQuestion Status: P revious Edition34) T wo plausible hypotheses to explain the productivity slowdown areA) m easurement problems and adjustments to new technologies.B) l arge government budget deficits and large balance of trade deficits.C) g lobalization of capital markets and reductions in tariffs.D) a djustments to new technologies and failures in the educational system.Answer: AQuestion Status: P revious Edition35) T he major contributor to the long-run improvement of a country's standard of living isA) l ow inflation.B) g rowth in government.C) p opulation growth.D) t echnological progress.Answer: DQuestion Status: N ew36) U nemployment is good from a social point of view becauseA) i t keeps wages in check.B) i t allows for better matches between workers and firms.C) i t provides free time.D) i t keeps the least efficient workers out.Answer: BQuestion Status: N ew37) T he U.S. government budget wasA) c ontinuously in surplus from 1959 to the late 1990s.B) i n surplus for most of the period from 1959-1970, but was in deficit for most of theperiod from 1970 to the late 1990s.C) i n deficit for most of the period from 1959-1970, but was in surplus for most of theperiod from 1970 to the late 1990s.D) c ontinuously in deficit from 1959 to the late 1990s.Answer: BQuestion Status: P revious Edition38) T he idea that government budget deficits do not matter under certain circumstances isA) c alled the Friedman-Lucas theory.B) c alled the Ricardian equivalence theorem.C) a ttributed to Edward Prescott and Finn Kydland.D) p reposterous.Answer: BQuestion Status: P revious Edition39) I n the second half of the twentieth century, the U.S. inflation rate was at its highest in theperiod fromA) 1960 to the early 1970s.B) t he mid-1970s to the early 1980s.C) t he mid-1980s to the early 1990s.D) 1990-2000.Answer: BQuestion Status: P revious Edition40) T he average labor productivity is defined asA) p er-capital real GDP divided by employment.B) n ominal GDP divided by employment.C) p er-capita nominal GDP divided by employment.D) r eal GDP divided by employment.Answer: DQuestion Status: N ew41) A government surplus isA) w hen it spends more than its income.B) w hen it owes more than what it is owed.C) w hen its income is higher than its spending.D) w hen it is owed more than what it owes.Answer: CQuestion Status: N ew42) G overnment debt is different from individual debt becauseA) t he government can always tax to reimburse it.B) t he government cannot declare bankruptcy.C) t he government does not need to pay interest.D) t he government can decide the interest rate.Answer: AQuestion Status: N ew43) T he real interest rate isA) a lways equal to the pure rate of time preference.B) e qual to the rate of inflation minus the nominal rate of interest.C) e qual to the nominal rate of interest minus the rate of inflation.D) l ess important for decision making than the nominal rate of interest.Answer: CQuestion Status: P revious Edition44) T he real interest rate isA) a lways positive.B) a lways negative.C) l ower than the nominal interest rate.D) z ero.Answer: CQuestion Status: N ew45) W hen there is high inflationA) t he nominal interest rate is approximately equal to the real interest rate.B) t he real interest rate is always greater than the nominal interest rate.C) t he nominal interest rate is always greater than the real interest rate.D) t he real interest rate is always negative.Answer: CQuestion Status: P revious Edition46) R eal interest rates were negative during most of theA) 1960s.B) 1970s.C) 1980s.D) 1990s.Answer: BQuestion Status: P revious Edition47) A sharp increase in energy prices most plausibly accounts for theA) G reat Depression.B) K orean War inflation.C) r ecession in 1973-1975.D) r ecessions of the early 1980s.Answer: CQuestion Status: P revious Edition48) W hich period was not a recession in the United States?A) 1974-1975B) 1990-1991C) 1984-1985D) 2001Answer: CQuestion Status: N ew49) W hich was the deepest recession in recent decades in the Unites States?A) 1978-1979B) 1981-1982C) 1990-1991D) 2001Answer: BQuestion Status: N ew50) T he most likely explanation of the recession of 1981-1982 wasA) a n increase in energy prices.B) a collapse in investment spending.C) t hat it was an unfortunate byproduct of a decrease in inflation.D) a dramatic decrease in stock prices.Answer: CQuestion Status: P revious Edition51) I nflation is defined asA) 1t t p p −. B) 1t t p p − + 1. C) 1t t p p − - 1. D) 1t tp p +. Answer: CQuestion Status: N ew52) W hen a country has a current account balance deficit, the countryA) i s always borrowing from abroad.B) i s always lending abroad.C) a lways has a large government budget surplus.D) a lways has a large government budget deficit.Answer: AQuestion Status: P revious Edition53) W hen a country has a current account balance surplus, the countryA) i s always borrowing from abroad.B) i s always lending abroad.C) a lways has a large government budget surplus.D) a lways has a large government budget deficit.Answer: BQuestion Status: P revious Edition54) W hich of the following observations is NOT true about the unemployment rate in theUnited States?A) T he unemployment rate in the period after 1970 is higher than the unemployment ratein the period before 1970.B) T he unemployment rate fluctuates significantly.C) S ince 1970, the unemployment rate rose until the mid-1980s and has declinedthereafter.D) S ince 1970, the unemployment rate fell until the mid-1980s and has increasedthereafter.Answer: DQuestion Status: P revious Edition55) T he fact that the unemployment rate is higher after 1970 is primarily explained byA) c hanges in the level of economic activity.B) c hanges in the structure of the population.C) c hanges in government intervention.D) s tructural shifts.Answer: BQuestion Status: P revious Edition56) Y ear-to-year fluctuations in the unemployment rate are primarily explained byA) c hanges in the level of economic activity.B) c hanges in the structure of the population.C) c hanges in government intervention.D) s tructural shifts.Answer: AQuestion Status: P revious Edition。