数值模式产品在民航气象预报中的应用

数值模式产品在民航气象预报中的应用
Abstract: In recent years, China's society has made continuous progress and the demand for civil aviation has been strong. However, due to insufficient security capabilities and other reasons,
regulatory measures have to be taken to limit a portion of the traffic. But in the long run, building a strong civil aviation country, promoting high-quality development of civil aviation, and meeting market demand are inevitable directions. To this end, we need to effectively utilize advanced technology, improve operational
efficiency, service quality, and improve economic efficiency. Abnormal flight conditions are mainly caused by weather, so in recent years,
the demand for accuracy, spatiotemporal accuracy, and lead time of meteorological forecasting services in civil aviation has
significantly improved. The rapid development of numerical models has played an increasingly important role in modern weather forecasting, often serving as the primary reference for forecasters when producing forecast products.
Keywords: numerical mode; Civil aviation meteorological forecast;
application
introduction
Since the 21st century, with the continuous deepening of the strategy of building a strong civil aviation and meteorological power, the strong demand for civil aviation transportation in China has been combined with the endogenous driving force of meteorological business development, and the civil aviation meteorological industry has made significant progress. Civil aviation
meteorology has shifted from empirical forecasting to a comprehensive technical route that combines data assimilation, numerical forecasting, statistical
forecasting, ensemble forecasting, artificial intelligence and other technical means, The objectivity and precision of civil aviation meteorological forecasting have achieved a historic leap. Under the existing aviation operation system, the flight density of some busy hub airports and main routes in China has long been saturated, and the airspace capacity restricts the growth of
flight volume. The social and economic value of civil aviation meteorological services is increasingly prominent. Civil aviation meteorology actively innovates and explores, improves technical levels, updates service concepts, achieves the integration of meteorological information and air traffic control operations, evaluates the expected impact of weather changes on airspace capacity, and makes important contributions to systematically improving the safety, normalcy, and efficiency of aviation flight.
1. Progress in Civil Aviation Meteorological Business 1.1 Objectives and Responsibilities of Civil Aviation Meteorology
The "China Civil Aviation Meteorological Work Rules" stipulate that civil aviation meteorology should comprehensively and systematically improve weather observation and forecasting levels, greatly reduce the impact of weather on flight, and contribute to the safety, normalcy, and efficiency of aviation flight. By detecting, collecting, analyzing, and processing meteorological data, the civil aviation meteorological department produces and releases aviation meteorological products, providing timely and accurate meteorological services for airlines, air traffic management departments, airports, and other aviation users. It is committed to improving flight safety, improving airspace operational efficiency, improving airport operating standards, reducing operating costs, promoting energy conservation and emission reduction, and has significant social and economic benefits. The business of civil aviation meteorology mainly includes observation, forecasting, aviation climate, space weather, exchange of flight meteorological information, and operation and maintenance of facilities and equipment. Among them, civil aviation meteorological forecasting is a group of airlines and air traffic control units The important basis for organizing and managing flight activities mainly includes airport weather forecasts, route weather forecasts, regional weather forecasts, aviation weather alerts, important meteorological intelligence, etc.,
which are often published in formats such as message codes, plaintext codes, and graphics. Taking airport weather forecast as an example, predict the wind direction, wind speed, visibility, temperature, cloud cover, cloud shape, cloud base height, weather phenomena, etc. within the airport area. The civil aviation meteorological service agency compiles and publishes airport weather forecasts in accordance with the international civil aviation code coding rules, exchanges them within the civil aviation meteorological system, and exchanges
international meteorological information through channels such as the international aviation fixed telecommunications network to serve civil aviation operations.
1.2 Progress in Civil Aviation Meteorological Forecasting Technology Civil aviation meteorological forecasting has the characteristics of fixed point,
fixed time, and quantitative refined forecasting. In airport weather forecasts, the turning point changes of meteorological elements must be accurate to the hour or minute level. It has been proven that the level of aviation meteorological services is one of the important factors that affect and constrain the level of aviation operation and management. The early aviation meteorological business did not have the support of numerical forecasting technology, relying on the experience of forecasters to produce and publish airport weather forecasts, route weather forecasts, and other products in formats such as messages and graphics. With the rapid development of the
aviation industry, these basic forecasting products can no longer meet the needs of airlines and air traffic control units for meteorological services, and are digital, easy to interpret Datasets that facilitate fusion computing are increasingly becoming the basic way of producing forecasting products and outputting services, and the mature development of numerical forecasting technology provides the basic conditions for this. In order to meet the high requirements of high-density flight operations for meteorological forecasting, the timeliness of civil aviation meteorological forecasting has shifted from short-term forecasting to both short-term and short-term forecasting, with a balance between hourly and daily forecasting and weekly and monthly weather outlook. A civil aviation meteorological forecasting technology route based on numerical forecasting technology, comprehensive application of statistical forecasting, ensemble forecasting, machine learning, fusion of multi-source data
and artificial intelligence technology has been formed. In response to the needs of the coordination and decision-making mechanism for civil aviation operations, while developing forecasting technology, it is necessary to actively update service concepts, strive to achieve efficient integration of meteorological information and user operation information, and gradually shift from forecasting weather to predicting the impact of weather changes on aviation operations. This is the current focus of civil aviation meteorology and the development trend of international aviation meteorology. 2.Analysis of Current Problems in Meteorological Forecasting 2.1 Meteorological complexity and variability
Meteorology can have a direct impact on civil aviation aircraft. If the refined weather forecast results show poor weather conditions in the future that are not conducive to flight, the flight needs to be immediately cancelled and a flight plan needs to be formulated after the weather improves; According to the formulated flight plan and based on the refined meteorological forecast results, the flight is carried out. However, the weather is complex and variable, and multiple factors need to be comprehensively considered to obtain more accurate prediction results. However, the prediction results cannot guarantee 100% accuracy, but are based on the summary of objective laws to predict future meteorological changes in a certain area, However, if there are special circumstances, the meteorological situation in the area will change, resulting in differences from the predicted results. This is the main challenge faced by current refined meteorological forecasting, and more influencing factors need to be combined in the refinement of meteorological forecasting. 2.2 Technical influencing factors From its essence, meteorological forecasting is a summary of the objective changes in meteorological conditions, predicting possible future situations with probability. It requires the use of a large number of professional prediction techniques to obtain the current meteorological conditions of a certain region and make predictions based on meteorological information. So, professional technology will have a direct impact on the accuracy of refined weather forecasting. If there are problems with the collection technology of meteorological data, it may lead to inaccurate and incomplete collected meteorological data, and the accuracy of predictions based on this meteorological information cannot be guaranteed. Although the professional ability of forecasters is strong, the basic information is not
comprehensive enough, and accurate meteorological forecast results cannot be obtained. There are still some problems with the current technology used in refined meteorological forecasting, especially in the collection of
meteorological data. The efficiency and comprehensiveness of data collection
still have certain limitations, which are the main challenges faced by refined meteorological forecasting work. 3.Strengthening the Work of Aviation Meteorological Forecast Service 3.1 Standardized operation, reflecting strong service efficiency In the process of continuously increasing customer demands,
it is necessary to analyze the problems that exist in the work process in conjunction with existing work and regulations. Highlight the concept of service, based on customer needs, formulate corresponding regulations and measures. On
the basis of persification, reasonably plan and establish multi-channel demand analysis measures. That is to say, it is necessary to continuously maintain the foresight of aviation meteorological forecasting service work, establish a reasonable learning technology foundation, and stabilize ideas, increase service concepts, maintain scientific development concepts, and increase institutional construction. In addition, it is necessary to increase emergency support capabilities, analyze road conditions reasonably based on unexpected times, and provide useful services to maintain the quality of services. Finally, it is necessary to increase training efforts for personnel involved in aviation meteorological forecasting services, establish a talent ladder system, and increase the degree of application to reasonably improve their literacy level.
3.2 Strengthen communication, provide precise services, and enhance collaboration Civil aviation meteorology needs to be based on refined forecasting, reasonably analyze the existing problems according to customer needs, and take specific measures to extend towards personalized service development. At this point, it is not only necessary to pay attention to the weather conditions during the landing and alternate landing, but also to pay attention to whether the tower's demand for meteorological services meets the current development standards. When conducting regional surveys, it is also necessary to pay attention to actual needs, analyze the actual situation on site, increase the guarantee construction of institutional measures, reasonably
analyze the direction of services, customize different service measures, and establish a point-to-point service concept. Relevant personnel can increase
coordination and research efforts through visits or symposiums, and form good interactive relationships. In addition, it is necessary to refine service
products in mutual communication to maintain a sustainable development path. It
is possible to conduct a review based on the actual weather conditions, analyze potential problems during operation, and conduct predictive capacity building. These measures can not only improve the guarantee construction of air traffic control, but also meet the needs of customers and develop and extend towards refinement. Finally, relevant personnel and departments are needed to leverage
the advantages of MDRS collaboration to maximize air traffic control Systematic collaborative development efforts, reducing the intensity of meteorological services, improving product service and guidance capabilities, and maintaining a sustainable development path.
epilogue
Civil aviation meteorology is a fundamental and technological enterprise
that serves the civil aviation industry. It is an important component of
national meteorology and civil aviation industry, and an important force for the safe and efficient development of civil aviation. Civil aviation meteorology has formed a transformation from weather forecasting to predicting the impact of weather changes on aviation operations, based on numerical forecasting technology, driven by technology, and driven by demand. Continuously improving
the capability of meteorological services throughout the entire aviation
operation process, greatly reducing the impact of weather on flight, and contributing to the safety, normalcy, and efficiency of aviation flight.
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