国际服务贸易外文文献翻译

国际服务贸易外文翻译文献
(含：英文原文及中文译文)
文献出处：《World Development》，2015，12（1）：35-44.
英文原文
The research of international service trade and economic growth theory
Chakraborty Kavin
1 Introduction
The study of the relation between international trade and economic growth is one of the most active issues. Since 1980s, the world has been in transition from national economy orientating towards natural resources and manufacturing industry to global and regional economy orientating towards information resources and service industry. After the signature of GA TS in1994, the institutional arrangements on liberalizing service trade result in a world-wide involvement division and exchanges of service trade, and it is undoubtedly that the positive interaction between service trade and investment leads to economic growth. But the theoretical research on service trade lags behind practice.
Is it a statistic phenomenon or a universal rule of economic growth? To approach the above two issues from theoretical and empirical perspective is of great value to policy-making.
For the proposition of that "International service trade will drive economic growth". Theoretical analysis shows that although service trade
is not a direct interpretative variable to economic growth, it can effect economic growth indirectly through other growing factors and technology upgrade, but the ways and mechanisms are different in different stages. In a certain stage of economic development, service trade (including investment) will have static and dynamic effect on factors supply and technology upgrade in one county, which will lead to the domestic alteration of resources condition structure. It is the enterprises that select industry structure, technology structure and trade structure according to dynamic alteration way of comparative technology structure and trade structure, which will ultimately promote evolution of economic growth gradually. So far as operational mechanism of service trade and investment is concerned, service trade affects factors supply in one country by physical capital accumulating effect, human capital effect, technology upgrade effect, institutional transition effect, employment effect and externality of technology, then influences the upgrade of industrial structure, the upgrade of technological structure and the transition of mode of economic growth. It is obvious that dynamic effect is greater than static effect; that external effect is playing more important role than internal effect; and that technology spillover effect of foreign direct investment in service industry is greater than that of service trade in a narrow sense (including across-border supply, consumption abroad and movement of natural person).
For the research of mechanism about how service trade drive economic growth. Firstly, the paper verifies the causality between service trade and economic growths concerning different economic bodies and the representative countries. The results show that there are causalities between international service trade and economic growth in the whole world, in the developed countries, in the US and in china. In the developing countries, service trade is the Granger cause of economic growth; In the whole world and the developing countries, economic growth is the Granger cause of service trade; In the US, service export is the Granger cause of economic growth, and economic growth is the Granger cause of service import. On this basis, it is concluded that the opening of service industry will benefit economic growth in one country. Secondly, in order to explore on how the service trade and investment act on economic growth, empirical studies are employed to explain the case of US and that of China. The results show that the routes by which service trade affects economic growth in the US can be rowed as follows from more significant to less: employment effect, human capital effect, physical capital effect, technology effect, institution effect. The results of empirical analysis of China can be summarized that: the routes by which service export affects economic growth can be rowed as follows: employment effect, physical capital effect, institution effect, human capital effect, technology effect; the routs by which service import affects
economic growth can be rowed as follows: technology effect, institution effect, employment effect, human capital effect, physical capital effect; the routes by which FDI in service affects economic growth can be rowed as follows: technology effect, human capital effect, institution effect, employment effect, physical capital effect. Moreover, the effect of FDI in service is stronger than service import, and the effect of service import is stronger than service export.
According to the empirical test in this paper, the conclusion can be drawn as follows: service trade in a narrow sense will have static and dynamic effects on factor supply in one country through import and export of service, FDI in service industry is one of the most important cross-border transactions and is another important channel which will affect the transition of advantages on factor supply in one country. It should be emphasized that the above-mentioned channels will have different effects on countries at different stages of economic development. Whether the roles can be brought into play or not depends on given restraints. The input output of factors themselves cannot form a clear function, but will interact together and act on economic growth hand in hand through numerous feedback chain.
Chinese economy is now undergoing transformation from elementary age to middle age of industrialization. Service trade and investment in current period have both advantages and disadvantages.
Based on these judgments, we propose that China should pursue a policy favoring protectionism on management of service trade and adopt relevant countermeasures as follows. Scientific development view should be formed with an eye to harmonizing development of three industries so as to lay a solid industries foundation for service trade; The strategic programming should be stipulated and the market of service trade should be opened gradually; The rule of international transfer of service trade should be mastered and environment of utilizing foreign investment on service industry should be improved.
As the characteristics of the world's service-oriented economy have gradually emerged, service trade originating from the upgrading of industrial structure has developed rapidly, and the scale of service trade is rapidly expanding. From the statistical data, the total exports of world service trade rose rapidly from 365 billion U.S. dollars in 1980 to 377.779 billion U.S. dollars in 2008, an increase of 9.35 times. Compared with the trade of goods with a long history, service trade is a new form of trade. With the continuous increase in absolute size and relatively low levels, service trade has become a focus of attention in modern society.
2 The impact of overall service trade on economic growth
According to the WTO General Agreement on Trade in Services (GA TS), which was signed in 1994, trade in services includes Cross- border Supply, Consumption A broad, Commercial Presence, and natural
person mobility. (Movement of Natural Persn) Four modes. The service trade of these four modes has completely different properties and characteristics. Therefore, it is difficult to establish a unified theoretical framework for service trade to affect economic growth. The corresponding literature is very rare. The only foreign documents are mainly Robinson et al. (2002), who simply regard service trade as a commodity. Trade, without taking into account differences in the four trade models, studied the economic growth effects of service trade liberalization using the Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model.
Using empirical methods to study the literature on the impact of overall service trade on economic growth is more, but such studies are mostly domestic scholars. Research shows that the average contribution of China's overall service trade to economic growth is 18.9%.
3 Effect of Service Trade in Different Industries on Economic Growth
At present, the literature on the impact of industry trade in service trade on economic growth is mostly concentrated in such service sectors as finance, telecommunications, and health care. These studies have basically reached a relatively unanimous conclusion that the opening of the service sector or the increase in productivity can significantly promote economic growth. . For example, studies by Beck et al. (1998), M urinde & Ryan (2003), and Eschenbach (2004) suggest that the opening of the financial sector has, to a certain extent, broken the monopoly of domestic
financial markets and prompted the orderly competition of financial markets. On the normal development track, productivity has improved, and it has finally led to economic growth in the country. Kim (2000) studied the relationship between the development of service trade in the distribution sector and the growth of total factor productivity (TFP) using Korea's input-output data. The results show that the liberalization of service trade not only significantly promoted its own TFP. The promotion also promoted the improvement of total factor productivity in the related manufacturing sector. The total factor productivity growth brought about by service trade almost covered the entire economic sector.
4 Effect of Service Trade on Economic Growth by Different Trading Modes
There are few literatures on specific transaction models and theoretical studies on the impact of trade in services on economic growth. Carr et al. (2001) & M arkusen et al. (2005) theoretically examined the commercial existence model by means of the CGE model. The impact of the trade in services on economic growth shows that the opening up of trade in services is an important source of the increase in economic welfare of a country. From the perspective of economic welfare, the opening up of trade in services is a general trend. Subsequently, the use of CGE models to theoretically examine the impact of service trade on economic growth began to prevail. For example, Rutherford et al. (2005)
used the CGE model to evaluate Russia's WTO accession effects, and Ko nan &Maskus (2006) used CGE models. The potential effects of Tunisia's elimination of barriers to trade in services were studied. Their conclusions indicate that the increase in the level of economic welfare in one country can benefit from the opening up of the service market, while the elimination of FDI market access barriers in the service sector is a pattern of four trades. The most important liberalization measures are the main sources of increased welfare in a country. There are a lot of literatures on the relationship between service trade and economic growth in specific models using empirical methods. In the four modes of trade in services, commercial presence is the most important one, and from the point of view of data availability, although statistical data is still not very accurate, commercial existence of service trade is based on service industry FDI as a carrier. To achieve this, researchers can use service industry FDI data to characterize the scale of service trade in this model, and this type of trade model has received more attention. Among them, Markusen (1989) believes that the existence of commercial trade in services has two positive and negative effects. The positive effect is that competition in the service sector has led to an increase in domestic demand for the sector’s production factors, which is conducive to output growth. The effect of market size and negative effects means that the intensified competition in the domestic market of service industries has led to the withdrawal of
domestic service-oriented enterprises from the market. The study by Markusen (1989) shows that the effect of market size after the opening of the service market far exceeds the crowding-out effect. After offsetting the crowding-out effect, it can still promote the productivity improvement of the non-service sector and further lead to the structure of domestic trade in goods. The changes, those sectors that were previously low in productivity and dependent on imports, will evolve into high-productivity export sectors, which is quite similar to the latest research findings on the interactive development of producer services and manufacturing. Hoekman (2006) and Hoekman (2006) used India as an example to examine the impact of the existence of commercial trade in services in the finance, telecommunications, and transportation sectors on the competitiveness of the goods export sector, and believe that these sectors have been liberalized. The level of soft facilities has been increased, which in turn has greatly reduced the operating costs of the downstream product manufacturing sector, which has increased the export competitiveness. With the inefficiency of the domestic service industry, the unfavorable pattern is reversed with the help of commercial presence of service trade. Feasible choice. Guerrieri et al. (2005) took the EU as the research object and analyzed the role of commercial trade in services for knowledge accumulation and economic growth. The study concluded that the openness of the service market or the relaxation of domestic
service regulations has positively promoted economic growth. It was found that the imported service items may be more able to promote economic growth than the domestic same service items due to high technological content.
5 Possible Future Research Directions
It is not difficult to find from the above-mentioned documents that since the development of service trade started late, research on the growth of service trade began to rise gradually from the 1980s, and more than 20 years of research in this area is in the ascendant. With the further enhancement of the status of trade in services, the possible directions for future research will generally include the following aspects.
From the point of view of research methodology, classification of service trade can be studied. As the theory of goods trade has gradually matured, the development practice of service trade still calls for the birth of the theory of service trade. Helpman and Markusen, international economists, expressed on different occasions that the difficulty in establishing the theoretical system of service trade lies in the fact that there are large differences in various types of service trades, and it is difficult for researchers to overcome the gap between them. Classifying service trade according to certain standards and exploring the impact of various types of service trade on economic growth is a possible direction for future research.
From the perspective of the research subjects, it is possible to study China’s service trade and economic growth. China’s GDP has already ranked second in the world. However, the service industry’s added value accounted for only 40% of GDP, which is obviously not commensurate with the status of an economic power. In addition, the trade in services is still relatively small compared to the trade in goods. Under such a realistic background, what is the relationship between China's service trade and economic growth? How will service trade contribute to China's economic growth? What impact will service outsourcing have on China's economy? With China in In the next decade, how will China make service trade an engine of economic growth? From the academic point of view, economists from all countries are paying attention to China’s economic development, and China’s service trade will also be improved. It will become a research hotspot.
From the perspective of research topics, it is possible to study the impact of service outsourcing on economic growth. In 2008, the scale of global service outsourcing market has reached 1.5 trillion US dollars. According to the UNCTAD (UNCT AD) speculation, the global service outsourcing market will increase by 30%-40% in the next 5-10 years.
The surging service industry outsourcing is a new form of service trade. How does service outsourcing drive economic growth through employment, industrial structure upgrading, and technology spillovers?
What are the differences in the impact of contracting and receiving services on economic growth in the service industry? Research on these issues will start with the development of service outsourcing to important theoretical guidance.
中文译文
国际服务贸易与经济增长理论与实证研究
Chakraborty Kavin
1 引言
国际贸易与经济增长始终是国际经济学最生动的论题之一。

自20世纪80年代以来, 世界经济由原来倚重自然资源和制造业的国别型经济正在向倚重信息资源和服务业的全球和区域型经济过渡。

随着1994年《服务贸易总协定》(GA TS)的签署, 服务贸易自由化的制度安排使得世界各国不可避免地卷入服务的国际分工和交换进程中, 服务贸易和投资良性互动推动经济迅速增长已是不争的事实。

因此, 服务贸易和投资对发达国家和发展中国家经济增长的推动作用是一个统计现象, 还是带有普遍意义的经济增长规律?对此问题给予理论解释和实证分析无疑具有重要的政策涵义。

这是统计现象还是经济增长的普遍规律？从理论和实证的角度来看待上述两个问题对决策具有重要的价值。

对于“国际服务贸易将推动经济增长”的主张。

理论分析表明，服务贸易虽然不是经济增长的直接解释变量，但可通过其他增长因素
和技术升级间接影响经济增长，但不同阶段的方式和机制存在差异。

在经济发展的一定阶段，服务贸易（包括投资）将对一个县的要素供给和技术升级产生静态和动态的影响，导致国内资源条件结构的变化。

根据比较技术结构和贸易结构的动态变化方式，企业选择产业结构，技术结构和贸易结构，最终促进经济增长的演变。

就服务贸易和投资的运作机制而言，服务贸易通过物质资本积累效应，人力资本效应，技术升级效应，制度变迁效应，就业效应和技术外部性影响一国的要素供给，进而影响升级产业结构的升级，技术结构的升级和经济增长方式的转变。

显而易见，动态效应大于静态效应;外部效应比内部效应起着更重要的作用;外商直接投资对服务业的技术溢出效应大于狭义上的服务贸易（包括跨境供应，境外消费和自然人流动）。

对服务贸易如何推动经济增长的机制研究。

首先，本文验证了不同经济主体和代表性国家之间服务贸易与经济增长之间的因果关系。

研究结果表明，在全球范围内，发达国家，美国和中国，国际服务贸易与经济增长之间存在因果关系。

在发展中国家，服务贸易是经济增长的格兰杰原因;在全球和发展中国家，经济增长是服务贸易的格兰杰原因;在美国，服务出口是经济增长的格兰杰原因，而经济增长是服务输入的格兰杰原因。

在此基础上得出结论，服务业的开放将有利于一个国家的经济增长。

其次，为了探讨服务贸易和投资如何在经济增长中发挥作用，我们用实证研究来解释美国和中国的情况。

结果表明，服务贸易影响美国经济增长的路径可以从较大到较小：就业效应，人力资本效应，物质资本效应，技术效应，制度效应。

中国的实证分
析结果可以总结为：服务业出口对经济增长的影响可以划分为：就业效应，物质资本效应，制度效应，人力资本效应，技术效应;服务输入对经济增长的影响可以划分为：技术效应，制度效应，就业效应，人力资本效应，物质资本效应;外商直接投资影响经济增长的路径可划分为技术效应，人力资本效应，制度效应，就业效应，物质资本效应。

此外，外商直接投资对服务业的影响大于服务业进口，服务业进口效应强于服务业出口。

根据本文的实证检验，得出结论如下：狭义上的服务贸易将通过服务的进出口对一个国家的要素供给产生静态和动态的影响，服务业中的FDI是其中之一最重要的跨境交易，是影响一国因素供给优势转移的另一重要渠道。

应该强调的是，上述渠道对处于不同经济发展阶段的国家会产生不同的影响。

角色是否可以发挥作用取决于给定的限制。

因素本身的输入输出不能形成明确的功能，而是会通过众多的反馈链携手并进，共同作用于经济增长。

中国经济正处于从小到大的工业化时代。

当前的服务贸易和投资既有利也有弊。

根据这些判断，我们建议中国应该奉行一种有利于保护主义的服务管理政策。

随着世界服务型经济特征的逐步凸显, 源于产业结构升级的服务贸易得到了迅速发展, 服务贸易的规模正在快速扩张。

从统计数据来看, 世界服务贸易出口总额从1980 年的3650 亿美元迅速上升至2008 年的37779 亿美元, 增长了9. 35 倍。

相比于具有悠久历史的货物贸易而言, 服务贸易是一种新型的贸易形式, 随着其
绝对规模和相对低位的不断提升, 服务贸易已经成为现代社会备受关注的一个焦点。

2 总体服务贸易对经济增长的影响
按照WTO 于1994 年签署的《服务贸易总协定》( GA T S) 的规定, 服务贸易包括跨境交付( Cross- border Supply ) 、境外消费( Consumption A broad) 、商业存在( Commercial Presence) 和自然人流动( M ovement o f Natural Perso ns) 四种模式, 这四种模式的服务贸易具有完全不同的属性和特点。

因此, 建立统一的服务贸易影响经济增长的理论框架存在较大的难度, 相应的文献十分鲜见, 仅有的国外文献主要有Robinson et al. ( 2002) , 他们简单地把服务贸易看成商品贸易, 不考虑四种贸易模式的差异, 运用可计算一般均衡( Computable GeneralEquilibrium, CGE) 模型研究了服务贸易自由化所产生的经济增长效应。

用实证的方法研究总体服务贸易影响经济增长的文献较多, 但此类研究以国内学者居多。

研究显示, 中国总体服务贸易对经济增长的平均贡献份额为18. 9% 。

3不同行业服务贸易对经济增长的影响
目前分行业研究服务贸易影响经济增长的文献大多集中于金融、电信和医疗卫生等服务部门, 这些研究基本取得了较为一致的结论, 即服务业部门的开放或者生产率的提高能够显著地促进经济增长。

例如, Beck et al. ( 1998) 、M urinde & Ryan( 2003) 和Eschenbach( 2004) 等的研究认为, 金融部门的开放在一定程度上
打破了本国金融市场的垄断, 促使金融市场进入有序竞争的正常发展轨道, 生产率得以提高, 并最终促使了本国的经济增长。

Kim( 2000) 借助于韩国的投入产出数据研究了分销部门服务贸易的开展与全要素生产率( TFP) 增长之间的关系, 结果表明, 服务贸易的自由化不仅显著促进了其本身全要素生产率的提升, 同时也促进了相关制造业部门全要素生产率的提升, 服务贸易所带来的全要素生产率增长几乎覆盖了整个经济部门。

4 不同交易模式的服务贸易对经济增长的影响
分具体交易模式并且从理论上研究服务贸易影响经济增长的文献为数不多, Carr et al. ( 2001)& M arkusen et al. ( 2005) 借助于CGE 模型, 从理论上考察了以商业存在模式开展的服务贸易对经济增长的影响, 结果表明, 服务贸易的开放是一国经济福利增加的重要来源, 从经济福利的角度来看, 服务贸易的开放是大势所趋。

随后, 运用CGE 模型从理论上考察服务贸易影响经济增长的方法开始盛行, 例如, Rutherford et al. ( 2005) 利用CGE 模型对俄罗斯的入世效应进行了评估分析, Ko nan &Maskus( 2006) 利用CGE 模型研究了突尼斯消除服务贸易壁垒的潜在效应, 他们的研究结论均表明, 一国经济福利水平的增加可以得益于服务市场的开放, 而消除服务业FDI 市场准入壁垒则是四种贸易模式中最为重要的自由化举措, 是一国福利增加的主要来源。

用实证方法研究具体模式的服务贸易与经济增长关系的文献较多。

在四种模式的服务贸易中, 商业存在是最为重要的一种, 而且从数据可获得性的角度
来看, 尽管统计数据依然不甚精确, 但是商业存在服务贸易是以服务业FDI 作为载体来实现的, 研究者可以用服务业FDI 数据来表征这种模式的服务贸易规模, 这种贸易模式也就受到了较多的关注。

其中, Markusen( 1989) 认为, 商业存在服务贸易的开展具有正负两个方面的效应, 正面效应是指服务部门的竞争导致了国内对该部门生产要素的需求增加而有利于产出增长, 即市场规模效应, 负面效应是指服务行业国内市场竞争的加剧导致本国服务性企业退出市场, 即产生了挤出效应。

Markusen( 1989) 的研究表明, 服务市场开放后的市场规模效应要远远超过挤出效应, 在抵消掉挤出效应后依然能够促使非服务业部门生产率的提升, 并且进一步导致了本国货物贸易结构的变化, 那些原先生产率低下并且依赖于进口的部门会演变为高生产率的出口部门, 这与目前关于生产者服务业与制造业互动发展的最新研究结论颇为相似。

得出类似研究结论的还有Hoekman ( 2006) , Hoekman( 2006) 以印度为例考察了金融、电信和运输等部门商业存在服务贸易对货物商品出口部门竞争力的影响, 认为这些部门的放开提升了软设施的水平, 进而大幅度压缩了下游产品生产部门的运作成本, 使得出口竞争力得以提高, 在本国服务业效率低下的情形下, 借助于商业存在服务贸易扭转不利格局是落后国家的可行选择。

Guerrieri et al. ( 2005) 以欧盟为研究对象, 分析了商业存在服务贸易对知识积累和经济增长的作用, 研究结论表明, 服务市场的开放或者国内服务规制的放松积极促进了经济增长, 同时还发现, 进口的服务品可能由于技术含量高的原因
而比国内提供的同类服务品更加能够促进经济增长。

5可能的未来研究方向
从上述文件中不难发现，自服务贸易发展起步较晚以来，对服务贸易增长的研究从20世纪80年代开始逐步上升，20多年来该领域的研究在方兴未艾。

随着服务贸易地位的进一步提升，未来研究的可能方向将主要包括以下几个方面。

从研究方法的角度来看，可以研究服务贸易的分类。

随着货物贸易理论的逐渐成熟，服务贸易的发展实践仍然要求服务贸易理论的诞生。

国际经济学家凯瑟曼和马库森在不同场合表示，建立服务贸易理论体系的困难在于各类服务贸易存在较大差异，研究人员难以克服它们之间的差距。

按照一定标准对服务贸易进行分类，探索各类服务贸易对经济增长的影响，是未来研究的一个可能方向。

从研究对象的角度来看，研究中国的服务贸易和经济增长是可能的。

中国的GDP已经位居世界第二位。

然而，服务业的增加值只占GDP的40％，这显然与经济实力的地位不相称。

此外，与货物贸易相比，服务贸易仍然相对较小。

在如此现实的背景下，中国服务贸易与经济增长之间的关系是什么？服务贸易将如何促进中国经济增长？服务外包将对中国经济产生什么样的影响？中国在未来十年，中国将如何使服务贸易成为经济增长的引擎？从学术角度看，各国经济学家都在关注中国的经济发展，中国的服务贸易也将得到改善。

它将成为研究热点。

从研究课题来看，可以研究服务外包对经济增长的影响。

2008
年，全球服务外包市场规模达到1.5万亿美元。

根据UNCTAD（UNCT AD）的猜测，未来5 - 10年全球服务外包市场将增长30％-40％。

服务业外包激增是服务贸易的一种新形式。

服务外包如何通过就业，产业结构升级和技术溢出推动经济增长？承包和接受服务对服务业经济增长的影响有什么不同？对这些问题的研究将从服务外包发展到重要的理论指导。