联合国贸易和发展会议《2014世界投资报告投资于可

联合国贸易和发展会议：《2014世界投资报告：投资于可持续发
展目标——一份行动计划》
全球FDI流量亚洲居首
报告显示，2013年，全球FDI重现增长，流入量增长了9%，达到1.45万亿美元。

联合国贸发组织预测，FDI流量在2014年可能升至1.6万亿美元，2016年进一步增加到1.8万亿美元，这些增长将主要来自发达国家。

一些新兴市场的经济脆弱性以及政策不确定和区域不稳定带来的风险可能对这一增长势头产生不利影响。

基于2013年全球直接外资增长9%，联合国贸发组织预测，外国直接投资流未来三年可能还会有所增长。

发展中经济体在2013年全球FDI流动中保持了领先地位。

流向发达国家的FDI 增长了9%，达到5660亿美元，占全球总流量的39%，而流向发展中经济体的FDI 再创历史新高，达到7780亿美元，占总流量的54%。

此外，1080亿美元流向了转型经济体。

在FDI流入量的全球前20位排名中，发展中和转型经济体目前占到了一半。

从各地区看，流入亚洲发展中国家的FDI保持全球第一的位置，远远超过了欧盟（传统上全球第一大的FDI流入地）的水平。

流入其他主要发展中地区的FDI
均出现增长。

非洲增长了4%，拉美和加勒比地区增长了6%（不包括该地区离岸金融中心）。

从发展中国家流出的FDI也达到了历史最高水平。

来自发展中经济体的跨国公司越来越多地收购发达国家设在发展中经济体的子公司。

发展中和转型经济体对外投资达5530亿美元，占全球FDI流出量的39%，而这一比例在本世纪初只有12%。

今年的投资报告着重对大型自贸区协定进行了分析。

目前正在谈判的三大区域协议——跨太平洋伙伴关系协定（TPP）、跨大西洋贸易和投资伙伴关系协定（TTIP）和区域全面经济伙伴关系（RCEP)——在全球FDI流量中各自占到四分之一甚至更多。

贫国降低对采掘业依赖
2013年全球FDI流动一个积极的趋势是贫困国家对采掘业投资的依赖性逐渐降低。

在非洲和最不发达国家公布的“绿地投资”项目价值中，制造业和服务业约占90%。

私募股权蓄势待发。

2013年，私募股权公司的未支付余额进一步上升至创纪录水平，达到1.07万亿美元。

私募股权占2013年跨境并购总额的21%，与2007年其高峰时相比降低了10个百分点。

大多数私募股权收购仍集中在欧洲和美国，但亚洲的这类交易有所增加。

发展中国家开始出现私募股权公司，它们不仅在发展中国家，也在更成熟的市场中进行交易。

主权财富基金的直接外资投资仍然较少，国有跨国公司是重量级选手。

由主权财富基金管理的资产接近6.4万亿美元，与其资产规模相比，主权财富基金的直接外资水平仍然很低。

2013年，主权财富基金的直接外资流价值67亿美元，累计存量达到1300亿美元。

贸发组织估计，发达国家和发展中国家至少有550家国有跨国公司，它们在海外有15000多个分公司，估计其海外资产超过2万亿美元。

据估算，国有跨国公司的直接外资2013年超过1600亿美元，占全球直接外资流量11%以上。

发展中和转型期经济体跨国公司扩张海外业务的速度快于发达国家跨国公司。

5000家规模最大的跨国公司2013年保持高额现金储备，现金储备份额超过其总资产11%。

据估算，发达国家跨国公司现金储备为3.5万亿美元，而发展中和转型期经济体的现金储备为1万亿美元。

发展中国家跨国公司现金与资产比率在过去五年中相对稳定，约为12%，而发达国家跨国公司现金与资产比率近年来有所提高，从金融危机前平均9%提高至2013年11%以上。

高水平的现金储备体现出其成为发展融资来源的巨大潜力。

投资于可持续发展目标
今年投资报告的主题是投资于可持续发展目标。

联合国可持续发展目标旨在推动全世界采取行动，在2015年到2030年，在减贫、粮食安全、人类健康和教育、缓解气候变化以及经济、社会和环境等方面制订并实现一系列具体的目标。

这些目标对所有发达国家和发展中国家都意味着巨大的投入。

仅就发展中国家而言，预计每年的投资需求将在3.3万亿到4.5万亿美元之间。

按照目前可持续发展目标相关部门的投资水平，发展中国家面临每年2.5万亿美元的资金缺口。

公共资金不能满足可持续发展目标的全部需求。

私营部门投资具有不可或缺的作用。

目前，私营部门参与可持续发展目标相关部门投资的水平相对较低。

全球的银行、养老基金、保险公司、基金会及跨国公司的资金，只有一小部分投向可持续发展目标部门。

在发展中国家特别是最贫穷的国家(最不发达国家)，其参与水平更低。

贸发组织认为，使最不发达国家的私营投资增长率翻一番，即从每年8%增加到15%，是一个理想的目标。

贸发组织特别建议，通过采取一整套有针对性的行动方案，将有助于为可持续发展私营投资形成一股“强大助推力”。

新一代投资促进和便利化。

这要求为实现可持续发展目标建立投资发展机构，为可持续发展目标相关行业提出、推销具备商业可行性的项目，进行招商引资并推动项目落地。

面向可持续发展目标的投资鼓励机制。

重建投资鼓励机制，特别是从“基于投资数量”的鼓励政策转向“基于可持续发展目标”的鼓励政策，将有助于推动对可持续发展项目的投资。

可持续发展目标区域性投资合作。

区域性和南南合作将有助于促进可持续发展目标投资，特别是通过跨国基础设施和区域产业集群(如绿色园区)的开发和建设。

可持续发展目标投资新型伙伴关系。

如由母国的对外投资机构与东道国的投资促进机构结成伙伴关系，或成立多边机构间技术援助合作机制，为最不发达国家提供支持。

创新融资机制和金融市场的重新定位。

贸发组织的建议包括建立新型可交易融资工具和可持续发展目标专门基金，种子期融资机制以及可持续发展目标项目“走向市场”的新渠道。

金融市场的重新定位也要求建立涵盖可持续发展目标的更全面的审评报告制度。

转变商务理念，培养投资于可持续发展目标的专长。

报告为全球商学院设置了一套课程，着眼于提高学生对穷国投资机会的认识。

同时，这些课程将为学生提供在发展中国家环境下成功经营所需的技能和工具。

全球投资格局中国位重
报告显示，2013年，中国在全球外国直接投资流动中表现不俗，全年吸引外资达1239亿美元，较上年增长2.3%，居全球第二位，与位居全球第一的美国的距离进一步缩小。

中国仍是全球最具吸引力的投资目的地之一。

同时，中国吸引外资的质量进一步提高，高端制造业和高附加值的服务业（如研发等）吸引外资比重持续上升。

中国对外投资的高速增长更加引人注目。

2013年，中国对外投资达1010亿美元，较上年增长15%，仅居美、日之后，为全球第三大对外投资国。

中国对外投资将很可能在今年超过吸引外资，成为净对外投资国。

截至2013年年底，中国对外投资存量达6136亿美元，全球排名从2011年的第17位上升至2013年的第11位。

中国对外投资已经进入了高速增长阶段。

如今中国已经成为名符其实的对外投资大国。

中国改革开放30多年来经济发展主要依靠出口推动和吸引外资的局面将发生重大转变。

对外投资将成为中国产业升级和经济增长的重要动力。

基于此，投资报告建议中国改革外资体制。

报告分析称，从国际上看，当前全球投资体制正处于十字路口。

国际社会，包括主要投资国，都在反思当前主要由双边投资协议组成的国际投资框架。

同时，美欧主导的大型区域伙伴关系（如TPP和TTIP）的谈判，在市场准入、投资者与国家利益平衡、可持续发展以及环境等方面引入一些新的、更高的标准，这将对未来国际投资体系的形成起到很强的示范作用。

中国需要在双边、区域及多边三个层次参与更高标准的国际投资规则的制定，对未来新的国际投资体制的形成施加影响。

从国内看，作为全球主要外资吸收国，中国外资存量基数已十分庞大。

中国要进一步提高对外资的吸引力、提升外资质量，急需对外资产业政策及外资审批制度进行调整。

这不仅是全面深化改革、扩大开放的需要，也有利于中国对国际投资体制的变革施加更大的影响。

2013年设立的上海自贸试验区正在进行基于负面清单的外资管理制度改革的探索。

在去年7月进行的第五轮中美战略与经济对话中，中国也表示同意以基于负面清单的准入前国民待遇为基础与美国进行双边投资体制谈判。

这些都表明了中国政府决心全面改革外资管理体制，并以高标准模式进行投资谈判。

此外，外资管理体制的改革必将进一步推动内资管理体制的改革。

中国将进入一个新的以开放促改革、以开放促转型的新阶段。

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附英文原文：
World Investment Report 2014: Investing in the SDGs: An Action Plan
By UNCTAD（联合国贸易和发展会议）
KEY MESSAGES
GLOBAL INVESTMENT TRENDS
Cautiousoptimism returns to global foreign direct investment (FDI). After the 2012 slump, global FDI returned to growth, with inflows rising 9 percent in 2013, to $1.45 trillion. UNCTAD projects that FDI flows could rise to $1.6 trillionin 2014, $1.7 trillion in 2015 and $1.8 trillion in 2016, with relatively larger increases in developed countries. Fragility in some emerging markets and risks related to policy uncertainty and regional instability may negatively affect the expected upturn in FDI.
Developing economies maintain their lead in 2013. FDI flows to developed countries increased by 9 percent to $566 billion, leaving them at 39 percent of global flows, while those to developing economies reached a new high of $778 billion, or 54 percent of the total. The balance of $108 billion went to transition economies. Developing and transition economies now constitute half of the top 20 ranked by FDI inflows.
FDI outflows from developing countries also reached a record level. Transnational corporations (TNCs) from developing economies are increasingly acquiring foreign affiliates from developed countries located in their regions. Developing and transition economies together invested $553 billion, or 39 percent of global FDI outflows, compared with only 12 percent at the beginning of the 2000s.
Megaregional groupings shape global FDI. The three main regional groups currently under negotiation (TPP, TTIP, RCEP) each account for a quarter or more of global FDI flows, with TTIP flows in decline, and the others in ascendance. Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) remains the largest regional economic cooperation grouping,with 54 percent of global inflows.
The poorest countries are less and less dependent on extractive industry investment. Over the past decade, the share of the extractive industry in the value of greenfield projects was 26 percent in Africa and 36 percent in LDCs. These shares are rapidly decreasing; manufacturing and services now make up about 90 percent of the value of announced projects both in Africa and in LDCs.
Private equity FDI is keeping its powder dry. Outstanding funds of private equity firms increased to a record level of more than $1 trillion. Their
cross-border investment was $171 billion, a decline of 11 percent, and they accounted for 21 percent of the value of cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M&As), 10 percentage points below their peak. With funds available for investment (“dry powder”), and relatively subdued activity in recent years, the potential for increased private equity FDI is significant.
State-owned TNCs are FDI heavy weights. UNCTAD estimates there are at least 550 State-owned TNCs——from both developed and developing countries——with more than 15,000 foreign affiliates and foreign assets of over $2 trillion. FDI by these TNCs was more than $160 billion in 2013. At that level, although their number constitutes less than 1 percent of the universe of TNCs, they account for over 11 percent of global FDI flows.
REGIONAL INVESTMENT TRENDS
FDI flows toall major developing regions increased.
Structurally weak economies saw mixed results. Investment in the least developed countries (LDCs) increased, with announced greenfield investments signalling significant growth in basic infrastructure and energy projects. Landlocked developing countries (LLDCs) saw an overall decline in FDI. Relative to the size of their economies, and relative to capital formation, FDI remains an important source of finance there. Inflows to small island developing States (SIDS) declined. Tourism and extractive industries are attracting increasing interest from foreign investors, while manufacturing industries have been negatively affected by erosion of trade preferences.
Inflows to developed countries resume growth but have a long way to go. The recovery of FDI inflows in developed countries to $566 billion, and the
unchanged outflows, at $857 billion, leave both at half their peak levels in 2007. Europe, traditionally the largest FDI recipient region, is at less than one third ofits 2007 inflows and one fourth of its outflows. The United States and the European Union (EU) saw their combined share of global FDI inflows decline from well over 50 percent pre-crisis to 30 percent in 2013.
FDI to transition economies reached record levels, but prospects are uncertain. FDI inflows to transition economies increased by 28 percent to reach $108 billionin 2013. Outward FDI from the region jumped by 84 per cent, reaching a record $99 billion. Prospects for FDI to transition economies are likely to be affected by uncertainties related to regional instability.
INVESTMENT POLICY TRENDS AND KEY ISSUES
Most investment policy measures remain geared towards investment promotion and liberalization. At the same time, the share of regulatory or restrictive investment policies increased, reaching 27 percent in 2013. Some host countries have sought to prevent divestments by established foreign investors. Some home countries promote reshoring of their TNCs’ overseas investments.
Investment incentives mostly focus on economic performance objectives, less on sustainable development. Incentives are widely used by governments as a policy instrument for attracting investment, despite persistent criticism that they are economically inefficient and lead to misallocations of public funds. To
address these concerns, investment incentives schemes could be more closely aligned with the SDGs.
International investment rule making is characterized by diverging trends: on the one hand, disengagement from the system, partly because of developments in investment arbitration; on the other, intensifying and
up-scaling negotiations. Negotiations of “megaregional agreements” are a case in point. Once concluded, these may have systemic implications for the regime of international investment agreements (IIAs).
Widespread concerns about the functioning and the impact of the IIA regime are resulting in calls for reform. Four paths are becoming apparent: (i) maintaining the status quo, (ii) disengaging from the system, (iii) introducing selective adjustments, and (iv) undertaking systematic reform. A multilateral approach could effectively contribute to this endeavour.
INVESTING IN THE SDGs: AN ACTION PLAN FOR PROMOTING PRIVATE SECTOR CONTRIBUTIONS
Faced with common global economic, social and environmental challenges, the international community is defining a set of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The SDGs, which are being formulated by the United Nations together with the widest possible range of stakeholders, are intended to galvanize action worldwide through concrete targets for the 2015–2030 period for poverty reduction, food security, human health and education, climate change mitigation, and a range of other objectives across the economic, social and environmental pillars.
The role of the public sector is fundamental and pivotal, while the private sector contribution is indispensable. The latter can take two main forms, good governance in business practices and investment in sustainable
development.Policy coherence is esse ntial in promoting the private sector’s contribution to the SDGs.
The SDGs will have very significant resource implications across the developed and developing world. Global investment needs are in the order of $5 trillion to $7 trillion per year. Estimates for investment needs in developing countries alone range from $3.3 trillion to $4.5 trillion per year, mainly for basic infrastructure (roads, rail and ports; power stations; water and sanitation), food security (agriculture and rural development), climate change mitigation and adaptation, health, and education.
The SDGs will require a step-change in the levels of both public and private investment inall countries. At current levels of investment in SDG-relevant sectors, developing countries alone face an annual gap of $2.5 trillion. In developing countries, especially in LDCs and other vulnerable economies, public finances are central to investment in SDGs. However, they cannot meet all SDG-implied resource demands. The role of private sector investment will be indispensable.
Today, the participation of the private sector in investment in SDG-related sectors isrelatively low. Only a fraction of the worldwide invested assets of banks, pension funds, insurers, foundations and endowments, as well as transnational corporations, is in SDG sectors. Their participation is even lower in developing countries, particularly the poorest ones.
In LDCs, adoubling of the growth rate of private investment would be a desirable target. Developing countries as a group could see the private sector cover approximately the part of SDG investment needs corresponding to its current share in investment in SDG sectors, based on current growth rates. In that scenario, however, they would still face an annual gap of about $1.6 trillion. In LDCs, where investment needs are most acute and where financing capacity is lowest, about twice the current growth rate of private investment is needed to give it a meaningful complementary financing role next to public investment and overseas development assistance (ODA).
Increasing the involvement of private investors in SDG-related sectors, many of which are sensitive or of a public service nature, leads to policy dilemmas. Policymakers need to find the right balance between creating a climate conducive to investment and removing barriers to investment on the one hand, and protecting public interests through regulation on the other. They need to find mechanisms to provide sufficiently attractive returns to private investors while guaranteeing accessibility and affordability of services for all. And the push for more private investment must be complementary to the parallel push for more public investment.
UNCTAD’s proposed Strategic Framework for Private Investment in the SDGs addresses key policy challenges and options related to (i) guiding principles and global leadership to galvanize action for private investment, (ii) the mobilization of funds for investment in sustainable development, (iii) the channelling of funds into investments in SDG sectors, and (iv) maximizing the sustainable development impact of private investment while minimizing risks or drawbacks involved.
Challenges to mobilizing funds in financial markets include start-up and scaling problems for innovative financing solutions, market failures, a lack of transparency on environmental, social and corporate governance performance, and misaligned rewards for market participants. Key constraints to channeling funds into SDG sectors include entry barriers, inadequate risk-return ratios for SDG investments, a lack of information and effective packaging and promotion of projects, and a lack of investor expertise. Key challenges in managing the impact of private investment in SDG sectors include the weak absorptive capacity in some developing countries, social and environmental impact risks, and the need for stakeholder engagement and effective impact monitoring.
UNCTAD’s Action Plan for Private Investment in the SDGs presents a range of policy options to respond to the mobilization, channelling and impact challenges. A focused set of action packages can help shape a Big Push for private investment in sustainable development:
(1) A new generation of investment promotion and facilitation.
(2) SDG-oriented investment incentives.
(3) Regional SDG Investment Compacts.
(4) New forms of partnership for SDG investments.
(5) Enabling innovative financing mechanisms and a reorientation of financial markets.
(6) Changing the business mindset and developing SDG investment expertise.
The Action Plan for Private Investment in the SDGs is meant to serve as a point of reference for policymakers at national and international levels in their discussions on ways and means to implement the SDGs. It has been designed as a “living document” and incorporates an online version that aims to establish aninteractive, open dialogue, inviting the international community to exchange views, suggestions and experiences. It thus constitutes a basis for further stakeholder engagement. UNCTAD aims to provide the platform for such engagement through its biennial World Investment Forum, and online through the Investment Policy Hub.（完）。