华信惠悦亚太人力资源管理趋势研究报告

W W W . W A T S O N W Y A T T . C O MAsia -Pacific Human Resource TrendsFourth Quarter 2003 –Summary of TrendsReference Sources:The Economist Group The Straits Times The Business Times Channel News AsiaCountries CoveredAustraliaIndonesiaSingapore ThailandIndia Malaysia Philippines Hong KongTaiwanSouth KoreaJapan ChinaNew ZealandHR Trends UpdateAUSTRALIAGDP, Inflation & Pay trends from 1999 -20040.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%GDP * 4.7% 2.8% 2.7% 3.6% 2.9% 3.6%CPI *1.5% 4.5% 4.4% 3.0%2.8% 2.8%Salary Increase5.3%5.2%5.1%4.2%4.1%3.7%199920002001200220032004AnticipatedFigures for GDP and CPI were obtained from the Economist Group●Australia’s economy faces a difficult transition in 2004. Growth in the real estate and related construction sectors, which has boomed for several years, is expected to slow in the face of higher interest rates and greater caution by consumers. Despite strong demand for commodity exports overall export growth is also in danger of slowing as the higher Australian dollar undermines the competitive advantage of rural, services and manufactured exports. Despite this, most local analysts believe domestic demand will remain quite firm (with retail sales growth staying close to the 8.6% year-on-year pace set in October) and new investment in the resources sector will offset slower growth in housing construction.●Long-term unemployment is at its lowest level in more than 13 years according to new data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The level of long-term unemployment (those unemployed for two years or more) is reported to have fallen by 40,700 (or 38.0 per cent) since March 1996.AustraliaHR Trends UpdateCHINA-2.0%0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%GDP 7.2%8.0%7.3%8.0%8.8%8.3%CPI-1.3%0.4%0.7%-0.8%0.9% 1.4%Salary Increase8.3%7.2%7.5%8.0%7.5%7.50%199920002001200220032004Anticipated GDP, Inflation & Pay trends from 1999 -2004Figures for GDP and CPI were obtained from the Economist Group●China ’s official economic growth figure for 2003 is likely to be close to 9%. Concerns persist about the pace of investment and credit growth in China--if a bubble is building, this could have significant repercussions, not just for China itself but for the rest of the region, which has been benefiting from the recent strong demand in that key emerging market. However, It is believed that talk of the economy overheating will subside over the next few months as Beijing ’s measures to cool the few sectors with very strong growth (e.g. steel, construction materials, automobiles) are working well.●Signs are that trade troubles for China will continue to mark 2004 what with the US slapping a major anti-dumping against it.●Regional press reports indicate the Beijing is drafting rules to curb the rapid expansion of large-scale foreign retailers. There has been exceptional growth in these types of stores in recent years from a very low base. The new rules may allow Beijing to block any further expansion by those foreign retailers who have not adhered to Beijing ’s existing guidelines. This may include foreign stores that have simply sought local approval before setting up.ChinaHR Trends UpdateHONG KONG-5.0%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%GDP 3.0%10.5%0.1% 2.0% 1.5% 6.0%CPI-4.0%-3.8%-1.6%-3.0%-2.0%0.5%Salary Increase0.6%1.8%3.1%0.2%0.39%0.26%199920002001200220032004AnticipatedGDP, Inflation & Pay trends from 1999 -2004Figures for GDP and CPI were obtained from the Economist GroupHong Kong●The modest upturn that emerged in HK’s economy in Q3 continues to build and is expected todeliver GDP growth of close to 6% in 2004.●Unemployment for the three months to November fell to 7.5%, the fourth consecutive month ofdecline (the rate is measured in 3-month blocks).●The surge in PRC tourists over the last two months has enabled retailers to end the deepdiscounts that were launched to counter the impact of SARS in Q2. Spending by Chinese tourists pushed October retail sales up 3.8% year-on-year by value and 4.6% year-on-year by volume. A growing number of local forecasters have now moved their 2004 GDP forecasts up to 6%.HR Trends Update INDIA0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%35.0%40.0%45.0%50.0%GDP 6.8% 6.1% 4.0% 5.4% 4.6%7.2%CPI 9.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% 3.8% 4.5%Salary Increase 15.0%15.0%15.0%11.4%12.3%12.2%199920002001200220032004AnticipatedGDP, Inflation & Pay trends from 1999 -2004Figures for GDP and CPI were obtained from the Economist Group* Figures are a percentage of total guaranteed remuneration minus variable bonusIndia●India’s economy has started to boom on the back of one of the best monsoons in a decade andthis is producing an array of very favourable economic results that point to particularly strong and stable growth in 2004. Most GDP estimates for the fiscal year ending March 31 have now been revised up to 7-8%.●Strong consumer demand plus lower inflation and lower interest rates are expected to trigger asurge in investment spending by corporates in 2004. Record foreign exchange reserves –which just exceeded US$100bn for the first time –have enabled the government to start prepaying foreign loans in an effort to reduce its interest costs. According to the latest Ascon survey for the first nine months of the current fiscal, as many as 17 industries recorded 20% plus growth rate in production as against just thirteen in the corresponding period last financial year (the Economic Times India). The CII survey which covered 134 manufacturing associations revealed that the automobile sector has continued to be the outperformer.●India has risen to the second position among nations ranked according to the size of investment bythe World Bank’s private sector investment arm, International Finance Corporation (IFC). Just three years ago, India ranked No 6.HR Trends Update INDONESIA0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%GDP 0.9% 4.9% 3.4% 3.7% 4.3% 4.5%CPI 2.0%9.4%12.6%10.0% 5.3% 6.0%Salary Increase 22.3%17.5%17.4%15.4%12.0%11.0%199920002001200220032004AnticipatedGDP, Inflation & Pay trends from 1999 -2004Figures for GDP and CPI were obtained from the Economist GroupIndonesia●Indonesia is poised for a parliamentary election in April and the country's first ever directpresidential vote in July (which could be followed by a second round in September, if the first vote produces no clear winner). Political uncertainty in the run-up to the elections is likely to prevent any significant recovery in foreign or domestic investment this year, however.●On December 20 the IMF approved the last tranche(US$505m) of its $5.3bn program to assistIndonesia’s recovery set up in February 2000. Inflation and inte rest rates are low by historical standards and still falling; foreign reserves are a reasonable US$35bn; growth has stabilized around 4%; the banking system recapitalised; the Rupiah has recovered some ground; and the government’s fiscal performance has been good (this year’s budge t deficit will be held to 1.9% of GDP).HR Trends Update JAPAN-2.0%-1.0%0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%GDP 0.8% 2.4%-0.5%0.1% 2.3% 2.0%CPI -0.3%-0.7%-1.0%-0.9%-0.4%0.8%Salary Increase ** 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 3.4% 2.6% 2.5%199920002001200220032004AnticipatedGDP, Inflation & Pay trends from 1999 -2004Figures for GDP and CPI were obtained from the Economist GroupJapan●Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi said this week that the Japanese economy has recovered fromrecession, the first time he has made such an assessment since taking office in 2001. Sustaininga recovery will not be easy, analysts said, because the rising cost of caring for Japan's agingpopulation is curbing consumer spending, which makes up more than half the economy.● A rising yen threatens to dent the recovery from a third recession in 12 years by crimpingoverseas sales of Japanese companies. Japan sold a record ¥20.1 trillion, or $189 billion, last year, as it sought to slow the yen's 11 percent gain against the dollar.●Japan's jobless rate in December fell to 4.9 percent, the lowest level in more than two years, butfears remained that the nation's export-led recovery was not translating into sufficient job growth.HR Trends Update MALAYSIA0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%7.0%8.0%9.0%GDP 6.1%8.3%0.4% 4.2% 5.0% 5.5%CPI 2.8% 1.5% 1.2% 1.8% 1.0% 1.5%Salary Increase 5.5% 6.6%7.6% 5.9% 5.4% 5.5%199920002001200220032004AnticipatedGDP, Inflation & Pay trends from 1999 -2004Figures for GDP and CPI were obtained from the Economist GroupMalaysia●The new PM Abdullah Badawi is winning the approval of both foreign and local analysts for hisshake-up of the government bureaucracy and willingness to tackle difficult policy decisions left over from the Mahathir-era, which ended on October 31.●Following upward government revisions to August and September tr ade data, Malaysia’seconomy now looks set to nudge at 5% year-on-year GDP growth for 2003. Industrial production for October jumped 11.3% year-on-year as factories geared up for year end shipments to major overseas markets. The trade outlook for 2004 is very positive due to the import strength in late 2003 (some 71% of all imports are intermediate goods for export manufacturing). The US dollar peg is not proving as beneficial to the export recovery as might be thought as Malaysia’s domestic manufacturers as well as it exporters requiring Japanese components face sharply rising costs on their non-US dollar imports. This has ignited a local debate on whether the time has come to unpeg the Ringgit from its 3.80 tie to the US dollar.HR Trends UpdateNEW ZEALAND0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%GDP - 3.4% 2.5% 4.2% 3.0% 2.8%CPI - 4.0% 1.8% 2.7% 1.1% 1.7%Salary Increase 2.8% 2.6% 3.7% 5.2% 3.0% 3.0%199920002001200220032004AnticipatedGDP, Inflation & Pay trends from 1999 -2004Figures for GDP and CPI were obtained from the Economist Group* Figures pertain to senior executivesNew Zealand●New Zealand consumer prices rose in the fourth quarter at the fastest pace in 18 months,increasing the chance of an interest-rate rise next week, the government statistics agency said this week.●The government has signaled looser controls on foreign purchases of local companies, withofficials due to draw up new laws by June that are likely to end any special restrictions on foreign companies buying local companies. The move would give New Zealand a more liberal investment policy.HR Trends Update PHILIPPINES0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%12.0%14.0%GDP 3.7% 4.0% 3.4% 4.2% 4.2% 4.5%CPI 6.6% 4.4% 6.1% 3.5% 3.2% 3.4%Salary Increase 11.7%11.3%11.4%9.4%8.8%8.9%199920002001200220032004AnticipatedGDP, Inflation & Pay trends from 1999 -2004Figures for GDP and CPI were obtained from the Economist GroupPhilippines●December saw Japan and the Philippines agree to formal talks aimed at a free trade agreement(FTA) between the two countries. Japan is the largest exporter to the Philippines (mainly machine and car parts) and is the second largest importer of Filipino goods (typically semi-conductors and electronic machinery). A recent study estimated that the benefit to the Philippines of a FTA with Japan would be a boost to GDP of between 1.7 and 3.0% of GDP.● A slow recovery is expected to emerge over the next six months. A variety of factors, includinginvestor uncertainty ahead of the May presidential election, will prevent growth from reaching the government's targeted 4.9-5.9% range. Consumer spending will be helped by record remittances from offshore Filipino workers according to the latest central bank estimates, while unemployment has started edging down from a July high of 12.6% to 10.1% in October, the lowest rate in two years. Exports also look set to add mildly to the economy with the trade deficits for each of the first nine months being replaced by small surpluses in October and November as exports belatedly followed the export recovery elsewhere in Asia. However, political uncertainty is likely to hinder any investment recovery in 2004.HR Trends Update SINGAPORE-4.0%-2.0%0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%12.0%GDP 5.9%10.3%-2.0% 2.8% 1.0% 5.0%CPI 0.1% 1.3% 1.0%-0.5%0.4% 1.2%Salary Increase 2.6% 5.6% 4.9% 3.4% 3.2% 3.1%199920002001200220032004AnticipatedGDP, Inflation & Pay trends from 1999 -2004Figures for GDP and CPI were obtained from the Economist GroupSingapore●Indicators across the Singapore economy point towards much stronger growth in 2004.●Retail sales have also been higher than expected in recent months (though in part due to“buying-up” before a 1% point sales tax increase in 2004). The stock mar ket is performing very well with a wave of IPOs in late 2003. The main moderating factor is the export data, which is weak —a point of concern because some of Singapore’s neighbours such as Taiwan and South Korea are seeing exceptional export growth. Despite this an industrial recovery is expected to produce a sharp GDP rebound as Singapore’s giant manufacturing f irms swing from two years of savage inventory rundown to a modest inventory rebuilding in early ’04.●Analysts remain optimistic about Singapore's economic recovery, despite concerns about thespread of bird flu in the region. Researchers at United Overseas Bank, for instance, estimate the outbreak, if contained within the poultry industry, will only trim Asia's GDP by just 0.036 percentage point.●Singapore's unemployment rate dropped one percentage point to 4.5 per cent in December as ittracked the country's improving economy more quickly than expected, the Government said this week. In this quarter’s HR Trends Survey, we found that slightly more than 70% of companies intend to restructure their wage systems in 2004. Of these companies, the top three approaches they plan to adopt is capping the salary range in each grade to 50% (59% of respondents chose this option), followed by reviewing & adjusting the compensation mix (53%) and moving towardsa competency based merit pay system (40%).●Close to 70% of companies that responded to this survey also indicated their intention of hiringnew employees within the next 12 months. The majority of new hires would have at least 1 –5 years of relevant working experience. The top 5 job functions of intended new hires are sales, followed by engineering, finance & accounting, marketing and customer service.Singapore●In a glimpse into what Singaporeans' pay cheques may look like in the future, a high-leveltaskforce appointed by the Government has unveiled its blueprint on how to restructure wages.The recommendations are meant to give employers more flexibility and to save jobs in a downturn.●The ideal would be to have an employee's basic wage -the fixed component -making up 70 percent of his total annual salary, with the remaining 30 per cent being variable. For middle managers, it should be 60 per cent fixed and 40 per cent variable, while for top management, it should be 50-50. The variable component should be made up of two parts -a monthly variable component, and an annual variable component.HR Trends Update SOUTH KOREA0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%12.0%GDP10.7%9.3% 3.0% 6.2% 2.7% 6.5%CPI0.8% 2.3% 3.2% 2.9% 2.8% 3.5%Salary Increase 6.7%10.2%9.6%9.2%7.8%7.7%199920002001200220032004Anticipated GDP, Inflation & Pay trends from 1999 -2004Figures for GDP and CPI were obtained from the Economist GroupSouth Korea●For South Korea, 2003 was a most challenging year. In 2004 real GDP is forecast to grow by 5.1%, almost double the rate of 2.7% estimated for last year. The outlook for domestic demand over the short term is mixed. Having contracted last year, private consumption is expected to grow by 2.8%, but constrained household balance sheets could limit the speed of recovery. Business investment should accelerate in 2004 as export conditions improve. However,the fragile financial state of many South Korean firms and the uncertain political scene will ensure that the pace of recovery remains slow.●Foreign investment is believed to have fallen significantly in 2003 in the face of rising political uncertainty, North Korea risk and labour strikes. Yet a strong FDI (Foreign Direct Investment) recovery is expected to be possible in 2004 as global manufacturers look for high quality production facilities to serve the nearby Chinese market. US firms have already found that exports from their Korean factories into China are booming and are likely to lift investment in new export capacity in 2004.●Singapore and South Korea have agreed to conclude a free trade agreement by the end of this year. This follows their first round of negotiations in the city-state which wrapped up on Thursday. Besides removing tariffs on goods, the deal could also open up the countries' services industries in areas like construction and financial services.HR Trends UpdateTAIWAN-5.0%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%GDP 5.4% 6.0%-2.2% 3.3% 3.0% 4.0%CPI 0.2% 1.3%0.0%0.5%0.2%0.3%Salary Increase 5.9% 6.2% 5.3% 3.2% 3.4% 3.7%199920002001200220032004AnticipatedGDP, Inflation & Pay trends from 1999 -2004Figures for GDP and CPI were obtained from the Economist GroupTaiwan●Forecasts for GDP growth in 2004 are becoming more optimistic, with the CEPD upping itsforecast from 4.7% to 5% on the basis of strong global demand for Taiwan's exports and some foreign analysts tipping 6%. Industrial production has surged over the last few months with November exports jumping 16.2% year-on-year to a record US$13.8bn. The Economist retains its more conservative forecast of 4% GDP growth pending the outcome of the March 2004 election.●Apart from one recent SARS infection case, which briefly shook markets, the rise in politicaltension in the next few months could well undermine domestic consumer confidence and put at risk the massive commercial links between China and Taiwan. As these links are particularly critical to the global IT industry this requires close watching.The NT dollar is expected to remain steady on the US dollar until the election, provided tensions with China do not reach dangerous levels; thereafter it is expected to gradually appreciate.●Taiwan's electronics makers are expanding to meet surging demand in China, where factoryproduction is growing at a record pace and per capita disposable incomes in towns and cities last year topped $1,000 for the first time. The expansion of the electronics industry is helping to create jobs and revive growth in the Taiwanese economy. Electronics account for more than a fifth of Taiwan's overseas sales, which in turn contribute about half of the island's gross domestic product. Total exports rose 21 percent to a record $14 billion in December and electronics shipments grew 33 percent. Shipments to China, which account for about a third of the island's overseas sales, jumped 33 percent.HR Trends Update THAILAND0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%GDP * 5.0% 4.6% 1.9% 4.9% 6.4% 6.8%CPI *0.3% 1.5% 1.7%0.7% 1.7% 2.0%Salary Increase 5.3% 6.7% 5.1% 4.9% 6.0% 6.3%199920002001200220032004AnticipatedGDP, Inflation & Pay trends from 1999 -2004Figures for GDP and CPI were obtained from the Economist GroupThailand●The Thai economy is one of the best performing in the region for2003, second only to China.Despite the key tourist industry being hit by the SARS outbreak,the economy has managed to perform beyond expectations, all thanks to strong exports, and equally-buoyant domestic demand. Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra has already announced a 2004 growth forecast of 8 percent. Once again, his optimism has been met with widespread skepticism. At the start of 2003, some analysts had laughed at the government's optimistic forecast of 6.5 percent GDP growth. However, many are now saying that since he has been able to pull it off once, he might be lucky enough to do it again.● A recent concern is that the poultry sector will be affected this year as numerous countries haveplaced bans on Thai chicken. Thailand is the largest chicken exporter in Asia, with exports this year previously targeted at some $1 billion. However, Kanit Sangsubhan, director of the Fiscal Policy Research Institute, said that while the poultry sector would definitely be affected, the impact on total exports of $80 billion was expected to be small.He said a three-month ban on chicken exports would affect total export revenues by just 0.4% and cut only 0.11 percentage points from annual growth.THE END。