BCG面试经验BCG’SVALUEMANAGEMENTFRAMEWORKANOVERVIEWFORMBASTUDENTS

WHAT GETS MEASURED GETS DONE
P:\MasterDk\ BCG’s Value Management Framework An Overview for MBA Students.PPT Rt rt (Ppt) Slide 2 March 2, 1998 2:01 PM
THE BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP
Yr 1 Yr 6
Yr 12
Investment profile of a new plant
$2,000
NOPAT(1)
843
Book capital(2) 11,286
Cost of capital(3) x10%
Capital charge(4) 1,129
EVA(1-4)
(286)
843 7,716 x10%
0.0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Year
P:\MasterDk\ BCG’s Value Management Framework An Overview for MBA Students.PPT Rt rt (Ppt) Slide 4 March 2, 1998 2:01 PM
THE BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP
ROGI (%) CFROI (%)
13 13 10 10
invested
(*) Economic depreciation = amount of annual sinking-fund payment earning COC required to replace assets ($357 = {0.1/[1.114 - 1)](12,000 - 2,000)})
P:\MasterDk\
-6-
BCG’s Value Management Framework -
Copyright 1996
An Overview for MBA Students.PPT
BCG/HOLT Planning Associates
Rt rt (Ppt) Slide 6 March 2, 1998 2:01 PM
P:\MasterDk\ BCG’s Value Management Framework An Overview for MBA Students.PPT Rt rt (Ppt) Slide 1 March 2, 1998 2:01 PM
THE BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP
-1Copyright 1996 BCG/HOLT Planning Associates All Rights Reserved
THE BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP
All Rights Reserved
P rice/E arn in g s
50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10
5 0 -100
Accounting M easures Fail (E.P.S. G row th)
Value Line Industrials - 1994 R 2 = 0.07
Economic
Life
-4Copyright 1996 BCG/HOLT Planning Associates All Rights Reserved
ISSUES WITH TRADITIONAL RETURN MEASURES
Investment profile of a new plant
Determine sustainable asset growth rates
Fade CFROIs and asset growth rates toward corporate averages consistent with life cycle theory and empirical evidence to estimate future cash flows (replaces terminal valuation)
BCG’s Valuation Framework
Translate accounting statements to gross cash flows and gross cash investments in constant dollars to produce cash on cash returns
772 71
843 3,432 x10%
343 500
$1,557
Cash flow(6)
1,557 1,557 1,557
Cash invested(7) 12,000 12,000 12,000
$12,000
IRR = 10%
Cost of capital(8) x10% x10% x10% Capital charge(9) 1,200 1,200 1,200
Test model values against actual stock prices for thousands of firms for 10-40 years across many countries; refine, refine, refine
P:\MasterDk\ BCG’s Value Management Framework An Overview for MBA Students.PPT Rt rt (Ppt) Slide 3 March 2, 1998 2:01 PM
Constant
1.0
Dollar
0.9
Level
0.8
Annuity
0.7 Useful 0.6 Output
(or 0.5 Survivors) 0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
Output Decline with Straight Line Depreciation
Likely Actual Output
Economic dep.(*)(10) 357 357 357
CVA(6-9-10)
0
0
0
(*) Economic depreciation = amount of annual sinking fund payment earning COC required to replace assets ($357 = {[0.1/(1.114 - 1)](12,000 - 2,000)})
24.6 13 10
P:\MasterDk\ BCG’s Value Management Framework An Overview for MBA Students.PPT Rt rt (Ppt) Slide 5 March 2, 1998 2:01 PM
THE BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP
BCG’S VALUE MANAGEMENT FRAMEWORK AN OVERVIEW FOR MBA STUDENTS
By Rawley Thomas Director of Research
The Boston Consulting Group 200 South Wacker Drive Chicago, Illinois 60606 312-627-2618 Thomas.RawleyBCG
Observations on Missing Elements No performance measure to determine if the business is achieving returns above or below the cost of capital or if the trend in those returns is up or down No fade in performance to determine likely cash flows in a competitive environment Discount rates determined by past price changes, not future likely cash flows No extensive empirical testing
-2Copyright 1996 BCG/HOLT Planning Associates All Rights Reserved
Traditional Valuation Techniques Versus BCG’s Valuation Framework
Traditional Valuation Techniques Forecast nominal cash flows by estimating P&L line items and changes to the balance sheet Estimate terminal value with a perpetuity of the forecasted last year’s net cash flow Determine cost of capital by weighting equity CAPM cost with debt cost Discount the cash flows and terminal value to present value with the weighted average cost of capital
$1,557
$2,000
$12,000
IRR = 10%
Subsequent annual measurement
Yr 1 Yr 6 Yr 12
Income
843 843 843
Depreciation
714 714 714
Cash flow
1,557 1,557 1,557
Cash invested 12,000 12,000 12,000
Translate cash on cash returns to economic performance measures (CFROIs) by adjusting for asset life and mix of depreciating versus nondepreciating assets
Estimate market derived real discount rate by equating the present value of the cash flows for a large aggregate to the sum of the prices of debt and equity
Apply the market derived discount rate to the cash flows derived from fading economic performance to determine market valuation; subtract debt to determine equity valuation
-5Copyright 1996 BCG/HOLT Planning Associates All Rights Reserved
VALUE-ADDED MEASURES REFLECT RETURN, COST OF CAPITAL AND SIZE
Return on New Plant—Measured Over Time
Book capital 11,286 7,716 3,432
ROCE = Income/book capital ROGI = Cash flow/Fra bibliotekROCE (%)
7.5 10.9
cash invested CFROI = (Cash flow - economic
depreciation(*))/cash
THE BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP
-3Copyright 1996 BCG/HOLT Planning Associates All Rights Reserved
MANY ASSETS FOLLOW THE SAME USEFUL OUTPUT PATTERN AS A CAR ...
-80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100
E.P.S. Growth 1993-1994
Accounting M easures Fail (ROCE Spread)