海洋生态系统管理的原则

Principles for managing marine ecosystems

prone to tipping points

Kimberly A.Selkoe,1,2,17Thorsten Blenckner,3Margaret R.Caldwell,4Larry B.Crowder,4Ashley L.Erickson,4Timothy E.Essington,5James A.Estes,6Rod M.Fujita,7Benjamin S.Halpern,1,8,9Mary E.Hunsicker,1Carrie V .Kappel,1Ryan P .Kelly,10John N.Kittinger,11Phillip S.Levin,12John M.Lynham,13Megan E.Mach,4Rebecca G.Martone,4Lindley A.Mease,4Anne K.Salomon,14Jameal F.Samhouri,12Courtney Scarborough,1Adrian C.Stier,1

Crow White,15and Joy Zedler 16

1

National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis,735State Street,Suite 300,Santa Barbara,California 93101USA

2

Hawaii Institute of Marine Biology,University of Hawaii,Kaneohe,Hawaii 96744USA 3

Stockholm Resilience Centre,Stockholm University,Kra ¨ftriket 2B,10691Stockholm,Sweden 4

Center for Ocean Solutions,Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment,Stanford University,

473Via Ortega Room 193,Stanford,California 94305USA

5

School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences,University of Washington,Seattle,Washington 98195USA

6

Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology,100Shaffer Road,University of California,Santa Cruz,California 95060USA

7

Environmental Defense Fund,123Mission Street,28th Floor,San Francisco,California 94105USA

8

Bren School of Environmental Science and Management,University of California,Santa Barbara,California 93106USA

9

Imperial College London,Silwood Park Campus,Buckhurst Road,Ascot SL57PY United Kingdom

10

School of Marine and Environmental Affairs,University of Washington,3707Brooklyn Avenue NE,Seattle,Washington 98105-6715USA

11

Conservation International,Betty and Gordon Moore Center for Science and Oceans,

7192Kalaniana ‘ole Highway,Suite G230,Honolulu,Hawaii 96825USA

12

Conservation Biology Division,Northwest Fisheries Science Center,National Marine Fisheries Service,

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,2725Montlake Boulevard East,Seattle,Washington 98112USA

13

Department of Economics,University of Hawaii at Manoa,Honolulu,Hawaii 96822USA

14

School of Resource and Environmental Management,Simon Fraser University,Burnaby,British Columbia V5A 1S6Canada 15

Department of Biological Sciences,California Polytechnic State University,San Luis Obispo,California 93407USA

16

Botany Department,University of Wisconsin,Madison,Wisconsin 53706USA

Abstract.As climatic changes and human uses intensify,resource managers and other decision makers are taking actions to either avoid or respond to ecosystem tipping points,or dramatic shifts in structure and function that are often costly and hard to reverse.Evidence indicates that explicitly addressing tipping points leads to improved management outcomes.Drawing on theory and examples from marine systems,we distill a set of seven principles to guide effective management in ecosystems with tipping points,derived from the best available science.These principles are based on observations that tipping points (1)are possible everywhere,(2)are associated with intense and/or multifaceted human use,(3)may be preceded by changes in early-warning indicators,(4)may redistribute benefits among stakeholders,(5)affect the relative costs of action and inaction,(6)suggest biologically informed management targets,and (7)often require an adaptive response to monitoring.We suggest that early action to preserve system resilience is likely more practical,affordable,and effective than late action to halt or reverse a tipping point.We articulate a conceptual approach to management focused on linking management targets to thresholds,tracking early-warning signals of ecosystem instability,and stepping up investment in monitoring and mitigation as the likelihood of dramatic ecosystem change increases.This approach can simplify and economize management by allowing decision makers to capitalize on the increasing value of precise information about threshold relationships when a system is closer to tipping or by ensuring that restoration effort is sufficient to tip a system into the desired regime.

Key words:critical transition;ecosystem-based management;marine spatial planning;nonlinear relationships;restoration ecology;stakeholder engagement .

Citation:Selkoe,K.A.,et al.2015.Principles for managing marine ecosystems prone to tipping points.Ecosystem Health and Sustainability 1(5):17./10.1890/EHS14-0024.1

Introduction

Ecosystems sometimes undergo large,sudden,and surprising changes in response to stressors.Theory and Manuscript received 14December 2014;revised 3March 2015;accepted 4March 2015;final version received 22April 2015;published 15July 2015.

17E-mail:

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