资源配置、资源错配与生产率

• Returns to one more year of education are therefore no higher in poor countries
中国经济分析
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资源错配: Humaห้องสมุดไป่ตู้ capital
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Investment rates
• India: MPK 22%, (AU/AI) = 2, (yU/yI)=6.35
• 农村改革 • 市场化和国有企业改革 • 资本市场、信贷市场与金融改革 • 劳动力市场 • 人力资本深化：教育、医疗 • 土地资源配置 • 市场开放、生产要素地区间流动、产业地区间分工和一体化 • 政府职能转变
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资源配置与生产率 • 资源配置：生产函数中的投入、产出和全要素生产率 • 新古典经济学中资源配置有效率的含义
• Logic of convergence:
• Poor countries should grow faster as they have higher return on the capital stock, however the reality is different
• Failure of the convergence: Failure of the assumptions that underlie the construction of the aggregate production
• Lucas argued, the actual rates of returns in India are much lower
• Lower investment-to-GDP ratio, when expressed in PPP, is explained by the low relative price of consumption, relative to investment Hsieh and Klenow (2003)
• 资源稀缺性
• 资源配置主体
• 企业、农民、消费者、劳动力（低技能、高技能劳动力）、资本所有者、政府、第 三方中介组织，。。。
• 资源配置的范围
• 企业层面、地区层面、国家层面、国际层面 • 静态、动态
• 资源配置的机制
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资源配置：基本原理
• 计划经济
• 计划、共有产权、政府主导
• 市场经济
• Share of default risk on the level of interest rate is not so huge
• suggest that people are willing to pay high interest rates for loans used for productive purpose, which suggests that the rates of return to capital are indeed high in developing countries, at least for some people.
• No correlation between government expenditure on education as a fraction of GDP and rate of returns to education Banerjee and Duflo (2005)
• Many instances where investments options with very high rates of returns do not seem to be taken advantage of Goldstein and Udry (1999) (Pineapple), Duflo et al.(2003) (Fertilizer)
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• 资源错配: Productivity gap and technology
• Low TFP in poor countries not because the wrong technology but because firms are too small to benefit from the best technologies, McKinsey Global Institute (2001)
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资源错配: Human capital
• No evidence that returns to education are much higher when education is lower, although the relationship is indeed negative
• constant returns / concave / increasing
• Assumption:
• Capital markets are perfect, people borrow and lend as much as they want at the common going rate, r , the marginal returns to capital must be the same for everybody in the economy
• 资源错配: Externalities in human capital
• Tend to limit the extent of diminishing returns with respect to human capital in the production function
• Investment in the education may have negative pecuniary externalities on other Duflo (2003)
• Individual production function • Aggregate production function
• Key assumption behind the construction of the aggregate production function is that all factor markets are perfect
• 价格、竞争、私有产权、市场协调、政府弥补市场失灵
• 米塞斯与兰格的争论：
• 自由市场经济、社会主义、市场社会主义的效率
• 各种资源配置方式有效率的前提条件
• 充分信息、充分理性、。。。。
中国经济分析
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资源配置和资源错配：实证分析
• 资源再配置(Reallocation)与经济增长： • 中国经济改革和发展的实践
• Key properties: ownership of factors does not matter given that an aggregate production function exists and concavity
中国经济分析
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资源配置与生产率: Convergence
• Production function
• 资源错配: Government failure
• Hypothesis that governments protect investors not enough or by protecting some of them excessively
• Excessive intervention, Banerjee and Duflo (2004): Small firms subsidized by government but below optimal scale while for medium firms above the cut-off the investment would be extremely profitable
• Misallocation of capital across firms:
• Differences in productivity across firms, either because of differences in scale, or because of differences in technology or because some entrepreneurs are more skilled than others
• Average of the marginal rates of return across firms does not appear to be that high.
• This suggests a coexistence of very high and very low rates of return in the same economy.
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• 资源错配: Coordination failure
• Coordinated big push, where all industries start together, can place the country on a permanently higher level of investment and income
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Effect of distortions on productivity
• Across-the-board inefficiency, because everyone could have chosen the wrong technology or the wrong product mix
• Suggestion: Alternative approach to growth theory that abandons the aggregate
production.
中国经济分析
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资源错配: Physical capital
• High interest rates in poor countries
• Teacher salary grows less fast than GDP, and the cost of education is thus not proportional to GDP
• Teachers are relatively more expensive in poor countries (larger class size)
• Property rights and legal enforcement
中国经济分析
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资源错配: Other issues
• Role of credit constraints • Problems in the insurance markets • Local externalities (herd behavior and investment decisions of family) • Behavioral issues (vouchers for fertilizers)
资源配置、资源错配与生产率
中国经济分析
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目录
• 资源配置与资源错配：一个研究前沿？ • 资源配置的基本概念 • 资源配置的基本原理 • 资源配置和错配的实证分析
• 可能的研究方向
中国经济分析
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资源配置：概念
• 有哪些资源？
• 劳动力、资本（信贷、股权资本）、自然资源、知识（技术、技巧know how）、 信息政府税收、公共品、。。。
• Goal:
• Set-up and calibrate a simple model, to investigate whether the misallocation of capital across firms within a country can explain the aggregate puzzles
• Marginal product in some firms is 50% or 100% or even more does not imply that the average of the marginal products across all firms is nearly as high