Choice procedures in pairwise comparison multiple-attribute decision making methods

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19-20章翻译

19-20章翻译

STASS LECTURE 19应用2×2列联表的Fisher精确检验19.1 介绍在上一讲中,我们讨论了估计两个定性变量之间相关性的方法。

并且已经通过计算和检验一个相关系数的方法解决了这个问题。

这一课,我们还是本着同一个目的:还是通过估计和检验来研究两个相关的变量,但不同的是,这一次所有的变量都是定性和而分类的。

例:对于同性结婚的观点、看法。

对于同性结婚是否更多的是一种社会习俗或者宗教习惯,存在着不同的看法。

为此,我们将在班上进行一个小型的调查,被访者要回答以下问题:问题一:你认为自己是一个有信仰或者宗教信仰的人吗?问题二:你认为同性结婚应该被合法化吗?我们将通过调查填满以下表格,之后进行分析:Fisher精确检验是由实验统计学的创始人之一——R.A.Fisher创立的,这也是置换检验的例子,在这里它适用于推测2×2列联表里的原假设。

所以,这个观点将会有利于我们推测出原假设。

假设,我们想要得到的原假设是H0:这两个变量是不相关的可选择的备择假设有三个:H a:这两个变量呈正相关性(右侧检验)H a:这两个变量呈负相关性(左侧检验)H a:这两个变量呈相关性(双侧检验)我们是通过确定不同类别在分组后所占的比例,来估测表中两个定性的变量的相关程度。

请思考下面这个例子:例:用药物治疗肺栓塞。

是否可以通过某种药物的使用,来降低经历过高风险手术患者得肺栓塞的几率,有位外科医生对这个话题产生了极大的兴趣。

有19名患者参与了这项研究,其中有11位接受某种药物治疗,8位进行标准治疗(没有使用这种药物)。

下面是数据:我们让P drug=当使用了某种药物时得肺栓塞病的概率,P standard=没有使用这种药物时得肺栓塞病的概率。

对这些参数进行点估计:根据计算可以得到,使用了某种药物后,得肺栓塞的概率低于标准治疗,但是别忘了,这只是这些样本的到的初步结论。

关键的问题是,使用这个药物后概率的下降,是否是统计学意义上的显著下降。

The Effect of Competition on the Efficient–Responsive Choice

The Effect of Competition on the Efficient–Responsive Choice

The Effect of Competition on the Efficient–ResponsiveChoiceTong WangDecision Sciences,National University of Singapore,Singapore119245,Singapore,tong.wang@.sgDouglas J.ThomasSmeal College of Business,Pennsylvania State University,University Park,Pennsylvannia16802,USA,dthomas@Nils RudiTechnology and Operations Management,INSEAD,Singapore138676,Singapore,nils.rudi@I n determining their operations strategy,afirm chooses whether to be responsive or efficient.Forfirms competing in amarket with uncertain demand and varying intensity of substitutability for the competitor’s product,we characterize the responsive or efficient choice in equilibrium.To focusfirst on the competitive implications,we study a model where a firm can choose to be responsive at no additionalfixed or marginal cost.Wefind that competingfirms will choose the same configuration(responsive or efficient),and responsiveness tends to be favorable when demand uncertainty is high or when product competition is not too strong.Intense competition can drivefirms to choose to be efficient rather than responsive even when there is no additional cost of being responsive.In such a case,bothfirms would be better off by choosing to be responsive but cannot credibly commit.We extend the basic model to study the impact of endogenized production timing,multiple productions and product holdback(or,equivalently,postponed production).For all these set-tings,wefind structurally similar results;firms choose the same configuration,and thefirms may miss Pareto-improve-ments.Furthermore,through extensions to the basic model,wefind that greater operationalflexibility can make responsiveness look less attractive in the presence of product competition.In contrast to our basic model and other exten-sions,wefind it is possible for onefirm to be responsive while the other is efficient when there is either afixed cost or variable cost premium associated with responsive delivery.Key words:efficient–responsive;quick response;competitionHistory:Received:July2012;Accepted:April2013by Jay Swaminathan,after4revisions.1.IntroductionQuick response,the ability of afirm to rapidly respond to demand requests,has been proposed as a business strategy to mitigate the costs of supply–demand mismatch due to volatile market conditions. Fisher et al.(1997)discuss a variety of levers afirm can employ to increase its ability to respond to demand and supply variability.The essential idea is to increase responsiveness such thatfirms can post-pone operational commitments until more demand information can be obtained.The decision of whether or when to adopt responsiveness has received and continues to receive widespread attention in the oper-ations management literature.In much of this work, there underlies a common wisdom that,all else equal, responsiveness is beneficial,as it provides extraflexi-bility forfirms to respond to market changes.Thus, the traditional framework of analyzing the decisionfalls into some form of cost–benefit analysis:the cost of responsiveness in terms of increased investment in capacity or infrastructure and possibly higher operat-ing costs vs.the benefit of responsiveness in terms of the improved matching of supply and demand that can occur due to the information gained through delayed commitment.In this study we analyze,from a strategic perspec-tive,the decision of whether to be responsive or not in the presence of market competition(see Figure1for a visual illustration).Our main focus is on the interac-tion between information and competition(the dark-ened arrow in Figure1),although we address cost interactions in extensions to the basic model.The main question we address is how competition affects afirms’choice between efficient and responsive pro-duction.Motivated by the setting wherefirms pro-duce branded products that compete in the same market,we model competition with partial product 829Vol.23,No.5,May2014,pp.829–846DOI10.1111/poms.12093 ISSN1059-1478|EISSN1937-5956|14|2305|0829©2013Production and Operations Management Societysubstitution.This allows us to explore how the inten-sity of product competition affects the efficient–responsive choice.Wefirst construct a basic game-theoretic model where twofirms produce partially substitutable prod-ucts and compete in a market with a short selling season and uncertain demand conditions.Before demand conditions are realized,there are two periods in which thefirms may produce.An efficientfirm has to produce in thefirst period due to its longer pro-duction lead time,while a responsivefirm delays the production to the second period.New information about market demand becomes available after the first period,so it is only useful tofirms that are responsive.In our model,firmsfirst decide whether to be efficient or responsive(the strategic stage)and then choose production quantities in the correspond-ing period(the tactical stage).A responsivefirm faces less uncertainty and is able to obtain extra value of information,while an efficientfirm enjoys the value of commitment due to movingfirst.The decision of whether to be responsive or efficient is thus deter-mined by trading off the value of information and the value of commitment.In our basic model,wefind that when there is no cost premium associated with responsiveness,being efficient can be a dominant strategy even though prof-its for bothfirms are higher under responsiveness. This is the case when market uncertainty is not too large while market competitiveness is high.On the other extreme,when uncertainty is high but competi-tiveness is low,being responsive becomes the domi-nant strategy.There exists a third case in between whenfirms prefer choosing the same strategy:both being responsive and both being efficient are the two Nash equilibria.In constructing the basic model,we make a set of assumptions in order to highlight the key result parsi-moniously.To test the robustness of thefindings,we relax these assumptions in the latter part of the study by considering an endogenized timing game where firms freely choose their lead time,a multi-production model that allows a responsivefirm to produce in mul-tiple batches in both periods,a holdback model that allowsfirms to withhold previously committed quan-tity in the selling season,and a model where respon-siveness comes at a cost.The qualitative structure of the above result remains the same except that when there is cost difference between efficient and respon-sive production.More importantly,by comparing the extensions with the basic model,wefind two rather counter-intuitive results:allowing the responsive firms to produce in both periods reduces the attractive-ness of responsiveness,and allowing the efficientfirm to withhold committed quantity reduces the attractive-ness of being efficient.This suggests that extra opera-tionalflexibility can actually harm thefirms in such a commitment game.We discuss the managerial impli-cations of thesefindings at the end of this study.The study is organized as follows.We briefly review related literature in section2.In section3,we develop the basic model and analyze the solutions in detail.Extensions to the basic model are discussed in section4.Section5concludes the study with discus-sions on the managerial implications.Proofs and deri-vations for the basic model are in the Appendix. Proofs related to model extensions are available in the supporting information.Code for all numerical experiments is available at https:///tong-wang/Efficient-Responsive.2.Literature ReviewOur work is related to three streams of research.In the operations management literature,Fisher and Raman(1996)and Iyer and Bergen(1997)are among thefirst works to investigate the impact of adopting a quick response strategy.Based in part on this work, Fisher(1997)presents a framework for matching demand-related product characteristics(functional or innovative,in terms of level of demand uncertainty, customer service expectations,relative importance of cost efficiency,etc.)with responsive or efficient sup-ply chains.Lee(2002)extends this framework by con-sidering how characteristics of the supply process (stable or evolving)affect the efficient–responsive choice.Randall and Ulrich(2001)and Randall et al. (2003)investigate the efficient–responsive choice empirically,providing some evidence that correctly matching product characteristics with responsive or efficient supply chains leads to improvedfirm performance.Ray et al.(2005)develop a model thatWang,Thomas,and Rudi:Efficient–Responsive Choice 830Production and Operations Management23(5),pp.829–846,©2013Production and Operations Management Societyfurther incorporates high and low price sensitivity with supply chain choice.Wang et al.(2012a)analyze how to optimally design a portfolio of efficient and responsive suppliers and how to order from these suppliers dynamically as more information is observed.These studies emphasize the trade-off between value of information and cost of responsive-ness,while we investigate how competition affects the efficient–responsive choice.The second stream is the Industrial Organization literature(Vives2000,section7),particularly the com-mitment models.Saloner(1987)studies a Cournot model with two production periods and shows there is a continuum of subgame perfect Nash equilibria including the Stackelberg outcome.Pal(1991)intro-duces cost differentials andfinds leader–follower equilibria when cost decreases over time.Maggi (1996)incorporates uncertainty into Saloner’s model and identifies asymmetric leader–follower equilibria. This stream of research emphasizes the special struc-tures of the equilibrium outcome.Built on these mod-els,our research focuses on the strategic implications of being efficient or responsive.The third stream,emerging more recently,consid-ers the effect of competition on strategic choices in operations management contexts.Van Mieghem and Dada(1999)show how competition affectsfirms’choices of price and production postponement. Cachon and K€o k(2010)investigate the impact of manufacturer competition on coordinating contracts offered to a common retailer,while Zhao(2008)inves-tigates how competition affects coordinating contracts when a single manufacturer sells to competing retail-ers.Caro and de Albeniz(2010)also study the impact of retail competition and adoption of quick response. In their setting,retailers see unmet demand from their competitors.Krishnan et al.(2010)analyze competing suppliers’incentives to reduce lead time when a com-mon retailer can control sales effort on their products. Anand and Girotra(2007)study the effect of competi-tion on afirm’s decision to delay product differentia-tion,and Goyal and Netessine(2007)on production flexibility.Wang et al.(2012b)study inventory com-petition between an original equipment manufacturer (OEM)and a supplier who can also compete in the market.Their work provides insights regarding how this particular kind of competition affects trade between the OEM and its supplier,including the impact on transfer pricing.Lin and Parlakt€u rk(2012)and Wu and Zhang (2013)both study settings wherefirms engage in inventory competition and must choose whether or not to adopt responsive sourcing.In Wu and Zhang (2013),motivated by the offshoring vs.domestic pro-duction setting,firms choose to be either efficient or responsive and have just one ordering opportunity.In addition,they investigate the impact of whether or not afirm would choose to acquire updated demand information if it were costly to do so.Lin and Par-lakt€u rk(2012)investigate how a manufacturer selling the same product to two retail competitors would offer and price a quick response option.In their set-ting,the products are homogenous and thus pure substitutes.Some keyfindings are that(i)the manufacturer may benefit from offeringquick response to only one of their two retail-ers,(ii)the retailer who is offered quick response may be worse off,and(iii)neither of these results hold in the monopoly setting.That is,retail competition may discourage the man-ufacturer from making quick response broadly avail-able.Similar to these works,we are interested in how competition affects a manufacturer’s choice to offer responsiveness.In contrast to both Lin and Parlakt€u rk (2012)and Wu and Zhang(2013),however,we model the efficient–responsive choice for competingfirms selling differentiated products that may not be pure substitutes.As our results indicate,the intensity of product competition relative to the demand variabil-ity drives the efficient–responsive choice in this set-ting.Moreover,we extend the basic model to provide unique features such as a production timing game with continuous strategy space,multiple production opportunities,and an explicit analysis of product holdback.3.The Basic ModelIn this section,we construct a basic model to capture the trade-off between value of information(VOI)and value of commitment(VOC)and derive the main insights analytically.3.1.Model Settings3.1.1.Market Structure.There are two risk-neu-tralfirms(1and2)supplying(partially)substitutable products to a market and competing in quantity.The aggregated response of the market is obtained by considering the optimal consumption made by a rep-resentative consumer with quadratic utility(Vives 2000,section6.1):Uðq1;q2Þ¼nðq1þq2ÞÀ12ðaq21þ2bq1q2þaq22Þ;ð1Þwhereξis a random number representing the over-all uncertainty in the market,q i is the quantity sup-plied to the market byfirm i,a is normalized to1, without loss of generality,and0≤b≤1capturesWang,Thomas,and Rudi:Efficient–Responsive ChoiceProduction and Operations Management23(5),pp.829–846,©2013Production and Operations Management Society831the substitutability between the two products(when b=0the two products are mutually independent; when b=1they are perfect substitutes).We assume the two products are subject to the same market uncertainty and price sensitivity both ex ante and ex post.This allows us to model the continuous change from perfect substitutable products to mutually independent products and a continuous change in the market uncertainty,focusing on how these factors affect the efficient–responsive choice.The representative consumer maximizes her surplus,CS¼Uðq1;q2ÞÀp1q1Àp2q2;ð2Þand this leads to the inverse demand function faced by the twofirms,which is standard in the econom-ics and marketing literature(Christen et al.2009, McGuire and Staelin1983,to name a few):p i¼nÀq iÀbq j;i;j2f1;2g;i¼j:ð3ÞLater,following Singh and Vives(1984),we use Equation(2)to calculate the impact offirms’decisions on consumer and total surplus.rmation Structure.The time horizon is assumed to be a continuum[0,1],where time0is the earliest epoch a quantity decision can be made and time1is when demand is realized and the market clears.At time0,the market conditionξis unknown. We model it as a continuous random variable with p.d.f.f(ξ)and c.d.f.F(ξ)defined on a non-negative support.The mean and variance ofξare given by l and r2,respectively.For the basic model,we make no assumption on how the knowledge aboutξevolves over the horizon;all that we need to assume is that at time1,the realization of theξcan be observed,and the uncertainty in the market is com-pletely resolved.3.1.3.Operational Strategies.Thefirms play a two-stage game.Thefirst stage is the strategic choice of the production technologies.There are two technol-ogies available:afirm can be either efficient(E)or responsive(R).The decisions are made at the very beginning before any information is observed.The second stage is the tactical decision of how much to produce.Thefirms decide their production quantity q i!0some time before the market starts,and a unit cost c(we assume c<l to avoid trivial cases)is incurred.The actual timing of the quantity decisions is determined by the production technology adopted. Efficient production requires longer lead time,so the quantity decisions need to be made earlier.A respon-sivefirm can produce with a shorter lead time and therefore is able to delay the quantity decision and acquire additional information about the market conditionξ.The exact timing of quantity decisions is specified later in each of the scenarios.The strategy adopted may also affect thefirms’production cost. All the parameters and actions made in earlier stages are public information to both players.3.1.4.Assumptions.The following assumptionsare made in the basic model.A SSUMPTION1(0–1L EAD T IME).A responsivefirm can produce with zero lead time and therefore is able to delaythe quantity decision until time1when the realization ofmarket conditionξis observed and all the uncertainty is resolved.The lead time of an efficientfirm is1,so theproduction quantity has to be determined at time0under uncertainty.A SSUMPTION2(O NE-S HOT P RODUCTION).Both types of firms delay the quantity commitment as much as possible and produce only once at the latest possible time(deter-mined by the lead time associated with the strategy adopted).A SSUMPTION3(N O H OLDBACK).All products produced are released to the market.A SSUMPTION4(N O C OST D IFFERENCE).Responsiveness comes at no extrafixed or marginal cost.We start with these assumptions in order to keep the model parsimonious and focus on the key trade-off.For example,the assumption of costless respon-siveness helps us focus on the interaction between VOI and VOC and avoid the distortion from the third effect of cost disadvantage.Nevertheless,in the next section,we relax these assumptions by considering production timing,multiple productions,product holdback,and production cost differences and justify the robustness of the results obtained from the basic model.3.2.Tactical Decisions:Production QuantitiesWe focus on Markov Perfect Equilibria and solve the game by backward induction.Wefirst study optimal production quantities for bothfirms,assuming their production strategies have been determined.There are three scenarios to be considered:(i)both are efficient(E–E);(ii)both are responsive(R–R);and(iii)one is efficient and the other is responsive (E–R).Figure2graphically depicts these scenarios.When the twofirms choose the same strategy,the problem is in the form of simultaneous Cournot quantity Wang,Thomas,and Rudi:Efficient–Responsive Choice832Production and Operations Management23(5),pp.829–846,©2013Production and Operations Management Societycompetition (with or without uncertainty).When they choose different strategies,the problem becomes a Stackelberg-type game where the efficient firm is the Stackelberg leader,deciding quantity first;the respon-sive firm is the second-mover but enjoys the benefit of superior information.3.2.1.Scenario I:E –E .The firms simultaneously make the quantity decisions at time 0.For firm i ,p i ðq i ;q j Þ¼E ½ðp i ðq i ;q j ;n ÞÀc Þq i¼ðl Àq i Àbq j Àc Þq i ;i ;j 2f 1;2g ;i ¼j :ð4ÞAs the uncertainty does not affect the expected profit,we have the standard Cournot best responseq i ðq j Þ¼ðl Àc Àbq j Þþ2;ð5Þresulting in a unique and symmetric Nash equilib-riumq 1¼q 2¼q E j E ¼l Àc2þb:ð6ÞHere and hereafter,we use superscript S 1j S 2,S 1;S 22f E ;R g ;to denote the outcome of a firm choosing strategy S 1given the other firm chooses S 2,and superscript S 1ÀS 2for the outcome of the scenario with one firm being S 1and the other being S 2.At this equilibrium,the expected profit of each firm,the expected consumer surplus,and total surplus are given bypE j E¼l Àc 2þb 2;CSE ÀE¼ð1þb ÞpE j E;TSE ÀE¼ð3þb ÞpE j E:ð7Þ3.2.2.Scenario II:R –R .Both firms first observe ξand then decide their quantities simultaneously at time 1.The profit,for a given ξ,isp i ðq i ;q j ;n Þ¼ðn Àq i Àbq j Àc Þq i ;i ;j 2f 1;2g ;i ¼j ;ð8Þso the best response isq i ðq j ;n Þ¼ðn Àc Àbq j Þþ2:ð9ÞThe unique Nash equilibrium is thenq 1ðn Þ¼q 2ðn Þ¼qR j Rðn Þ¼ðn Àc Þþ2þb:At time 0(before observing ξ),the expected output quantity by each firm isq R j R ¼E ðn Àc Þþ2þb !;ð10Þand the expected profit isp R j R ¼Eðn Àc Þþ2þb2"#:ð11ÞThe expected consumer surplus and total surplus are ð1þb Þp R j R and ð3þb Þp R j R ,respectively.3.2.3.Scenario III:E –R .Suppose firm 1is effi-cient and firm 2is responsive.Now we have a Stackel-berg setting where firm 1first decides quantity q 1at time 0,then firm 2makes its quantity decision at time 1after observing q 1and the market condition ξ.At time 1,firm 2solves a deterministic problemp 2ðq 1;q 2;n Þ¼ðn Àq 2Àbq 1Àc Þq 2;ð12Þand producesq 2ðq 1;n Þ¼ðn Àc Àbq 1Þþ2:ð13ÞFirm 1makes the quantity decision,anticipating firm 2’s response.The expected price of product 1forWang,Thomas,and Rudi:Efficient –Responsive ChoiceProduction and Operations Management 23(5),pp.829–846,©2013Production and Operations Management Society833given q 1and ξisp 1ðq 1;q 2ðq 1;n Þ;n Þ¼n Àq 1Àbðn Àc Àbq 1Þþ2:ð14ÞTaking expectation with regard to ξ,we have the expected price as a function of q 1:p 1ðq 1Þ¼E ½p 1ðq 1;q 2ðq 1;n Þ;n Þ¼Z bq 1þcðn Àq 1ÞdF ðn Þþ12Z 1bq 1þcð2Àb Þn Àð2Àb 2Þq 1þbc ÂÃdF ðn Þ:Firm 1maximizesp 1ðq 1Þ¼E ðp 1ðq 1;q 2ðq 1;n Þ;n ÞÀc Þq 1½ ;ð15Þwhich is concave.The optimal q 1satisfies the following first-order conditionZ bq 1þcb 2n Àc À2bq 1½ dF ðn Þþ2Àb2ðl Àc ÞÀð2Àb 2Þq 1¼0:ð16ÞThe first-order derivative is decreasing in q 1,goesto ∞as q 1!À1,and goes to À∞as q 1!1.So,the optimal q 1exists and is unique.Also,it is straightfor-ward to show that the optimal q 1is bounded above by 2Àb =½2ð2Àb 2Þ ðl Àc Þ,which is the Stackelberg quantity without uncertainty.Let q E j R denote the quantity that satisfies the above first-order condition (16).Once it is obtained,we can find numerically the quantity for the responsive firm q R j E by Equation (13),the expected profits p E j R by Equation (15)and p R j E by Equation (12),and also the consumer surplus CS E ÀR and total surplus TS E ÀR .3.3.Strategic Decisions:Efficient or Responsive At the strategic level,the firms decide whether to be efficient or responsive based on the optimal expected profits obtained from the tactical subgames p E j E ,p R j R ,p E j R ,and p R j E .As we do not have explicit analytical expressions for the profits in the E –R scenario,it is difficult to ana-lyze the strategic decisions by directly comparing these profits.In the following,we first consider the situation where the uncertainty is sufficiently small to allow explicit analytic solutions to be obtained.We then investigate the more general setting numerically.3.3.1.Bounded Uncertainty.We adopt a tradi-tional approach (Van Mieghem and Dada 1999,p.1638)by assuming the uncertainty is bounded such that the probability that the realized market price is less than the marginal cost is negligible.As a result,it is always profitable for the second-mover to enter the market and produce a positive quantity.This assump-tion helps avoid the kink in the response functions (eliminate the þin Equations (10),(11),(13),(14),and the integral term in Equation (16))and obtain analytic solutions.The results are listed in Table 1,and detailed deri-vations are delegated to the Appendix.We now define the following measures for the value of information and the value of commitment and will show later that the firms’strategic choices only depend on the relative magnitude of these mea-sures.D EFINITION 1.VOI :¼r 2is a measure of the value of the additional information acquired if a firm chooses to be responsive instead of efficient.D EFINITION 2.VOCE :¼b 3ð16À8b 2Àb 3Þ4ð2Àb 2Þ2ð2þb Þ2ðl Àc Þ2is a mea-sure of the value of early commitment if the other firm is efficient.D EFINITION 3.VOC R :¼½b 4=8ð2Àb 2Þ ðl Àc Þ2is a measure of the value of early commitment if the other firm is responsive.With these definitions and the profit expressions from Table 1,we can write the net change in profit due to switching from efficient to responsive (depending on the other firm’s choice)asp R j E Àp E j E ¼14½VOI ÀVOC E ;ð17Þp R j R Àp E j R ¼1ð2þb Þ½VOI ÀVOC R :ð18ÞL EMMA 1.For 0≤b ≤1,the following properties hold:(i)VOC R !0and VOC E !0;(ii)VOC R and VOC E are increasing in b;(iii)VOC R VOC E .This leads to the following proposition.Table 1Game Output with Bounded UncertaintyI:E –EII:R –RIII:E –RERExpected quantity (q )l Àc l Àc ð2Àb Þðl Àc Þ2ð2Àb 2Þð4À2b Àb 2Þðl Àc ÞÞExpected profit (p )ðl Àc Þ2ð2þb Þ2ðl Àc Þ2þr 2ð2þb Þ2ð2Àb Þ2ðl Àc Þ28ð2Àb 2Þð4À2b Àb 2Þ2ðl Àc Þ216ð2Àb 2Þþr 2Wang,Thomas,and Rudi:Efficient –Responsive Choice834Production and Operations Management 23(5),pp.829–846,©2013Production and Operations Management SocietyP ROPOSITION 1.At the strategic stage the game can have the following possible outcomes:(i)R is a dominant strategy if VOI [VOC E ;(ii)E is a dominant strategy if VOI \VOC R ;(iii)E –E and R –R are the two Nash equilibria ifVOC R VOI VOC E .The asymmetric equilibrium E –R is not possible,as VOC R VOC E .What drives different game outcomes here is the relative difference between the value of information from delayed commitment as a function of r 2and the value of commitment as a function of the product sub-stitutability b .Figure 3plots the firms’strategic choices on the two-dimensional b Àr 2plane.In this and similar figures later in the study,we fix l =10,c =1.The two curves VOC E and VOC R partition the plane into three parts,corresponding to the three outcomes,respectively.In the upper-left region,the uncertainty effect (VOI )dominates the strategic effect (VOC R and VOC E ).Both firms choose to be responsive in equilibrium,which is consistent with the conventional wisdom.In the lower-right region,we have the E –E outcome.It suggests that,even if responsiveness is free,there can be cases where the value of information gained is dominated by the value of commitment lost (VOI \VOC R suggests VOI \VOC E by Lemma 1).Note that this is for purely competitive reasons that firms might prefer not to be responsive.When there is no competition,b =0,and there is no cost premium for providingresponsiveness,both manufacturers choose respon-siveness.Moreover,as we can see from Table 1,p E j E p R j R ,which means that although E turns out to be a dominant strategy,R –R is a Pareto-improv-ing outcome compared to E –E .This replicates the classic prisoner’s dilemma.The third case gives us two Nash equilibria,R –R and E –E .The two firms prefer to adopt the same strategy;no one has incen-tive to deviate unilaterally.The fact that VOC R VOC E indicates that the strategic value of early commitment is greater when the other firm is also committing early.As we see in Equation (17),a firm is willing to move from effi-cient to responsive when the other firm is efficient if and only if VOI !VOC E .The resultant asymmetric (E –R )situation cannot be sustained because in this case,VOI !VOC E !VOC R ,which implies Equation (18)must also be positive.This means if it is valu-able for the first of two efficient firms to deviate and become responsive,it must be the case that the second firm wants to follow,leading to the R –R equilibrium.Next,we examine how different market conditions affect the efficient –responsive choice.C OROLLARY 1.Responsiveness is more appealing(i)when more uncertainty can be resolved (larger r 2);(ii)when market size l is smaller;(iii)when product substitutability b is lower.Existing research suggests that responsiveness is most beneficial when the market demand is highly uncertain and when the market competition is intense (Gerwin 1993,Wharton and White 1988).The first half is confirmed in our analysis,while the second half deserves more discussion.If the degree of competi-tion is measured by the market potential l ,what we observe is consistent with the traditional wisdom:responsiveness is more appealing when market size is smaller.However,product substitutability b is argu-ably a better measure of competition.We find that contrary to the traditional wisdom,a higher b reduces firms’incentive to be responsive because it increases the value of commitment.When the products are mutually independent (no competition),the firms will always choose to be responsive.On the other extreme,when the two products are perfect substitutes (b =1),the intense market competition makes the value of commitment strongest,discouraging firms from adopting responsiveness.This is in a sense comple-mentary to the Fisher (1997)framework in that we might expect a more innovative product to be subject to not only higher demand uncertainty but also less competition (lower b ),and therefore be a better match with a responsive strategy.Wang,Thomas,and Rudi:Efficient –Responsive ChoiceProduction and Operations Management 23(5),pp.829–846,©2013Production and Operations Management Society835。

SPSS术语中英文对照

SPSS术语中英文对照

SPSS术语中英文对照【常用软件】SPSS术语中英文对照Absolute deviation, 绝对离差Absolute number, 绝对数Absolute residuals, 绝对残差Acceleration array, 加速度立体阵Acceleration in an arbitrary direction, 任意方向上的加速度Acceleration normal, 法向加速度Acceleration space dimension, 加速度空间的维数Acceleration tangential, 切向加速度Acceleration vector, 加速度向量Acceptable hypothesis, 可接受假设Accumulation, 累积Accuracy, 准确度Actual frequency, 实际频数Adaptive estimator, 自适应估计量Addition, 相加Addition theorem, 加法定理Additivity, 可加性Adjusted rate, 调整率Adjusted value, 校正值Admissible error, 容许误差Aggregation, 聚集性Alternative hypothesis, 备择假设Among groups, 组间Amounts, 总量Analysis of correlation, 相关分析Analysis of covariance, 协方差分析Analysis of regression, 回归分析Analysis of time series, 时间序列分析Analysis of variance, 方差分析Angular transformation, 角转换ANOVA (analysis of variance), 方差分析ANOVA Models, 方差分析模型Arcing, 弧/弧旋Arcsine transformation, 反正弦变换Area under the curve, 曲线面积AREG , 评估从一个时间点到下一个时间点回归相关时的误差ARIMA, 季节和非季节性单变量模型的极大似然估计Arithmetic grid paper, 算术格纸Arithmetic mean, 算术平均数Arrhenius relation, 艾恩尼斯关系Assessing fit, 拟合的评估Associative laws, 结合律Asymmetric distribution, 非对称分布Asymptotic bias, 渐近偏倚Asymptotic efficiency, 渐近效率Asymptotic variance, 渐近方差Attributable risk, 归因危险度Attribute data, 属性资料Attribution, 属性Autocorrelation, 自相关Autocorrelation of residuals, 残差的自相关Average, 平均数Average confidence interval length, 平均置信区间长度Average growth rate, 平均增长率Bar chart, 条形图Bar graph, 条形图Base period, 基期Bayes' theorem , Bayes定理Bell-shaped curve, 钟形曲线Bernoulli distribution, 伯努力分布Best-trim estimator, 最好切尾估计量Bias, 偏性Binary logistic regression, 二元逻辑斯蒂回归Binomial distribution, 二项分布Bisquare, 双平方Bivariate Correlate, 二变量相关Bivariate normal distribution, 双变量正态分布Bivariate normal population, 双变量正态总体Biweight interval, 双权区间Biweight M-estimator, 双权M估计量Block, 区组/配伍组BMDP(Biomedical computer programs), BMDP统计软件包Boxplots, 箱线图/箱尾图Breakdown bound, 崩溃界/崩溃点Canonical correlation, 典型相关Caption, 纵标目Case-control study, 病例对照研究Categorical variable, 分类变量Catenary, 悬链线Cauchy distribution, 柯西分布Cause-and-effect relationship, 因果关系Cell, 单元Censoring, 终检Center of symmetry, 对称中心Centering and scaling, 中心化和定标Central tendency, 集中趋势Central value, 中心值CHAID -χ2 Automatic Interac tion Detector, 卡方自动交互检测Chance, 机遇Chance error, 随机误差Chance variable, 随机变量Characteristic equation, 特征方程Characteristic root, 特征根Characteristic vector, 特征向量Chebshev criterion of fit, 拟合的切比雪夫准则Chernoff faces, 切尔诺夫脸谱图Chi-square test, 卡方检验/χ2检验Choleskey decomposition, 乔洛斯基分解Circle chart, 圆图Class interval, 组距Class mid-value, 组中值Class upper limit, 组上限Classified variable, 分类变量Cluster analysis, 聚类分析Cluster sampling, 整群抽样Code, 代码Coded data, 编码数据Coding, 编码Coefficient of contingency, 列联系数Coefficient of determination, 决定系数Coefficient of multiple correlation, 多重相关系数Coefficient of partial correlation, 偏相关系数Coefficient of production-moment correlation, 积差相关系数Coefficient of rank correlation, 等级相关系数Coefficient of regression, 回归系数Coefficient of skewness, 偏度系数Coefficient of variation, 变异系数Cohort study, 队列研究Column, 列Column effect, 列效应Column factor, 列因素Combination pool, 合并Combinative table, 组合表Common factor, 共性因子Common regression coefficient, 公共回归系数Common value, 共同值Common variance, 公共方差Common variation, 公共变异Communality variance, 共性方差Comparability, 可比性Comparison of bathes, 批比较Comparison value, 比较值Compartment model, 分部模型Compassion, 伸缩Complement of an event, 补事件Complete association, 完全正相关Complete dissociation, 完全不相关Complete statistics, 完备统计量Completely randomized design, 完全随机化设计Composite event, 联合事件Composite events, 复合事件Concavity, 凹性Conditional expectation, 条件期望Conditional likelihood, 条件似然Conditional probability, 条件概率Conditionally linear, 依条件线性Confidence interval, 置信区间Confidence limit, 置信限Confidence lower limit, 置信下限Confidence upper limit, 置信上限Confirmatory Factor Analysis , 验证性因子分析Confirmatory research, 证实性实验研究Confounding factor, 混杂因素Conjoint, 联合分析Consistency, 相合性Consistency check, 一致性检验Consistent asymptotically normal estimate, 相合渐近正态估计Consistent estimate, 相合估计Constrained nonlinear regression, 受约束非线性回归Constraint, 约束Contaminated distribution, 污染分布Contaminated Gausssian, 污染高斯分布Contaminated normal distribution, 污染正态分布Contamination, 污染Contamination model, 污染模型Contingency table, 列联表Contour, 边界线Contribution rate, 贡献率Control, 对照Controlled experiments, 对照实验Conventional depth, 常规深度Convolution, 卷积Corrected factor, 校正因子Corrected mean, 校正均值Correction coefficient, 校正系数Correctness, 正确性Correlation coefficient, 相关系数Correlation index, 相关指数Correspondence, 对应Counting, 计数Counts, 计数/频数Covariance, 协方差Covariant, 共变Cox Regression, Cox回归Criteria for fitting, 拟合准则Criteria of least squares, 最小二乘准则Critical ratio, 临界比Critical region, 拒绝域Critical value, 临界值Cross-over design, 交叉设计Cross-section analysis, 横断面分析Cross-section survey, 横断面调查Crosstabs , 交叉表Cross-tabulation table, 复合表Cube root, 立方根Cumulative distribution function, 分布函数Cumulative probability, 累计概率Curvature, 曲率/弯曲Curvature, 曲率Curve fit , 曲线拟和Curve fitting, 曲线拟合Curvilinear regression, 曲线回归Curvilinear relation, 曲线关系Cut-and-try method, 尝试法Cycle, 周期Cyclist, 周期性D test, D检验Data acquisition, 资料收集Data bank, 数据库Data capacity, 数据容量Data deficiencies, 数据缺乏Data handling, 数据处理Data manipulation, 数据处理Data processing, 数据处理Data reduction, 数据缩减Data set, 数据集Data sources, 数据来源Data transformation, 数据变换Data validity, 数据有效性Data-in, 数据输入Data-out, 数据输出Dead time, 停滞期Degree of freedom, 自由度Degree of precision, 精密度Degree of reliability, 可靠性程度Degression, 递减Density function, 密度函数Density of data points, 数据点的密度Dependent variable, 应变量/依变量/因变量Dependent variable, 因变量Depth, 深度Derivative matrix, 导数矩阵Derivative-free methods, 无导数方法Design, 设计Determinacy, 确定性Determinant, 行列式Determinant, 决定因素Deviation, 离差Deviation from average, 离均差Diagnostic plot, 诊断图Dichotomous variable, 二分变量Differential equation, 微分方程Direct standardization, 直接标准化法Discrete variable, 离散型变量DISCRIMINANT, 判断Discriminant analysis, 判别分析Discriminant coefficient, 判别系数Discriminant function, 判别值Dispersion, 散布/分散度Disproportional, 不成比例的Disproportionate sub-class numbers, 不成比例次级组含量Distribution free, 分布无关性/免分布Distribution shape, 分布形状Distribution-free method, 任意分布法Distributive laws, 分配律Disturbance, 随机扰动项Dose response curve, 剂量反应曲线Double blind method, 双盲法Double blind trial, 双盲试验Double exponential distribution, 双指数分布Double logarithmic, 双对数Downward rank, 降秩Dual-space plot, 对偶空间图DUD, 无导数方法Duncan's new multiple range method, 新复极差法/Duncan新法Effect, 实验效应Eigenvalue, 特征值Eigenvector, 特征向量Ellipse, 椭圆Empirical distribution, 经验分布Empirical probability, 经验概率单位Enumeration data, 计数资料Equal sun-class number, 相等次级组含量Equally likely, 等可能Equivariance, 同变性Error, 误差/错误Error of estimate, 估计误差Error type I, 第一类错误Error type II, 第二类错误Estimand, 被估量Estimated error mean squares, 估计误差均方Estimated error sum of squares, 估计误差平方和Euclidean distance, 欧式距离Event, 事件Event, 事件Exceptional data point, 异常数据点Expectation plane, 期望平面Expectation surface, 期望曲面Expected values, 期望值Experiment, 实验Experimental sampling, 试验抽样Experimental unit, 试验单位Explanatory variable, 说明变量Exploratory data analysis, 探索性数据分析Explore Summarize, 探索-摘要Exponential curve, 指数曲线Exponential growth, 指数式增长EXSMOOTH, 指数平滑方法Extended fit, 扩充拟合Extra parameter, 附加参数Extrapolation, 外推法Extreme observation, 末端观测值Extremes, 极端值/极值F distribution, F分布F test, F检验Factor, 因素/因子Factor analysis, 因子分析Factor Analysis, 因子分析Factor score, 因子得分Factorial, 阶乘Factorial design, 析因试验设计False negative, 假阴性False negative error, 假阴性错误Family of distributions, 分布族Family of estimators, 估计量族Fanning, 扇面Fatality rate, 病死率Field investigation, 现场调查Field survey, 现场调查Finite population, 有限总体Finite-sample, 有限样本First derivative, 一阶导数First principal component, 第一主成分First quartile, 第一四分位数Fisher information, 费雪信息量Fitted value, 拟合值Fitting a curve, 曲线拟合Fixed base, 定基Fluctuation, 随机起伏Forecast, 预测Four fold table, 四格表Fourth, 四分点Fraction blow, 左侧比率Fractional error, 相对误差Frequency, 频率Frequency polygon, 频数多边图Frontier point, 界限点Function relationship, 泛函关系Gamma distribution, 伽玛分布Gauss increment, 高斯增量Gaussian distribution, 高斯分布/正态分布Gauss-Newton increment, 高斯-牛顿增量General census, 全面普查GENLOG (Generalized liner models), 广义线性模型Geometric mean, 几何平均数Gini's mean difference, 基尼均差GLM (General liner models), 一般线性模型Goodness of fit, 拟和优度/配合度Gradient of determinant, 行列式的梯度Graeco-Latin square, 希腊拉丁方Grand mean, 总均值Gross errors, 重大错误Gross-error sensitivity, 大错敏感度Group averages, 分组平均Grouped data, 分组资料Guessed mean, 假定平均数Half-life, 半衰期Hampel M-estimators, 汉佩尔M估计量Happenstance, 偶然事件Harmonic mean, 调和均数Hazard function, 风险均数Hazard rate, 风险率Heading, 标目Heavy-tailed distribution, 重尾分布Hessian array, 海森立体阵Heterogeneity, 不同质Heterogeneity of variance, 方差不齐Hierarchical classification, 组内分组Hierarchical clustering method, 系统聚类法High-leverage point, 高杠杆率点HILOGLINEAR, 多维列联表的层次对数线性模型Hinge, 折叶点Histogram, 直方图Historical cohort study, 历史性队列研究Holes, 空洞HOMALS, 多重响应分析Homogeneity of variance, 方差齐性Homogeneity test, 齐性检验Huber M-estimators, 休伯M估计量Hyperbola, 双曲线Hypothesis testing, 假设检验Hypothetical universe, 假设总体Impossible event, 不可能事件Independence, 独立性Independent variable, 自变量Index, 指标/指数Indirect standardization, 间接标准化法Individual, 个体Inference band, 推断带Infinite population, 无限总体Infinitely great, 无穷大Infinitely small, 无穷小Influence curve, 影响曲线Information capacity, 信息容量Initial condition, 初始条件Initial estimate, 初始估计值Initial level, 最初水平Interaction, 交互作用Interaction terms, 交互作用项Intercept, 截距Interpolation, 内插法Interquartile range, 四分位距Interval estimation, 区间估计Intervals of equal probability, 等概率区间Intrinsic curvature, 固有曲率Invariance, 不变性Inverse matrix, 逆矩阵Inverse probability, 逆概率Inverse sine transformation, 反正弦变换Iteration, 迭代Jacobian determinant, 雅可比行列式Joint distribution function, 分布函数Joint probability, 联合概率Joint probability distribution, 联合概率分布K means method, 逐步聚类法Kaplan-Meier, 评估事件的时间长度Kaplan-Merier chart, Kaplan-Merier图Kendall's rank correlation, Kendall等级相关Kinetic, 动力学Kolmogorov-Smirnove test, 柯尔莫哥洛夫-斯米尔诺夫检验Kruskal and Wallis test, Kruskal及Wallis检验/多样本的秩和检验/H检验Kurtosis, 峰度Lack of fit, 失拟Ladder of powers, 幂阶梯Lag, 滞后Large sample, 大样本Large sample test, 大样本检验Latin square, 拉丁方Latin square design, 拉丁方设计Leakage, 泄漏Least favorable configuration, 最不利构形Least favorable distribution, 最不利分布Least significant difference, 最小显著差法Least square method, 最小二乘法Least-absolute-residuals estimates, 最小绝对残差估计Least-absolute-residuals fit, 最小绝对残差拟合Least-absolute-residuals line, 最小绝对残差线Legend, 图例L-estimator, L估计量L-estimator of location, 位置L估计量L-estimator of scale, 尺度L估计量Level, 水平Life expectance, 预期期望寿命Life table, 寿命表Life table method, 生命表法Light-tailed distribution, 轻尾分布Likelihood function, 似然函数Likelihood ratio, 似然比line graph, 线图Linear correlation, 直线相关Linear equation, 线性方程Linear programming, 线性规划Linear regression, 直线回归Linear Regression, 线性回归Linear trend, 线性趋势Loading, 载荷Location and scale equivariance, 位置尺度同变性Location equivariance, 位置同变性Location invariance, 位置不变性Location scale family, 位置尺度族Log rank test, 时序检验Logarithmic curve, 对数曲线Logarithmic normal distribution, 对数正态分布Logarithmic scale, 对数尺度Logarithmic transformation, 对数变换Logic check, 逻辑检查Logistic distribution, 逻辑斯特分布Logit transformation, Logit转换LOGLINEAR, 多维列联表通用模型Lognormal distribution, 对数正态分布Lost function, 损失函数Low correlation, 低度相关Lower limit, 下限Lowest-attained variance, 最小可达方差LSD, 最小显著差法的简称Lurking variable, 潜在变量Main effect, 主效应Major heading, 主辞标目Marginal density function, 边缘密度函数Marginal probability, 边缘概率Marginal probability distribution, 边缘概率分布Matched data, 配对资料Matched distribution, 匹配过分布Matching of distribution, 分布的匹配Matching of transformation, 变换的匹配Mathematical expectation, 数学期望Mathematical model, 数学模型Maximum L-estimator, 极大极小L 估计量Maximum likelihood method, 最大似然法Mean, 均数Mean squares between groups, 组间均方Mean squares within group, 组内均方Means (Compare means), 均值-均值比较Median, 中位数Median effective dose, 半数效量Median lethal dose, 半数致死量Median polish, 中位数平滑Median test, 中位数检验Minimal sufficient statistic, 最小充分统计量Minimum distance estimation, 最小距离估计Minimum effective dose, 最小有效量Minimum lethal dose, 最小致死量Minimum variance estimator, 最小方差估计量MINITAB, 统计软件包Minor heading, 宾词标目Missing data, 缺失值Model specification, 模型的确定Modeling Statistics , 模型统计Models for outliers, 离群值模型Modifying the model, 模型的修正Modulus of continuity, 连续性模Morbidity, 发病率Most favorable configuration, 最有利构形Multidimensional Scaling (ASCAL), 多维尺度/多维标度Multinomial Logistic Regression , 多项逻辑斯蒂回归Multiple comparison, 多重比较Multiple correlation , 复相关Multiple covariance, 多元协方差Multiple linear regression, 多元线性回归Multiple response , 多重选项Multiple solutions, 多解Multiplication theorem, 乘法定理Multiresponse, 多元响应Multi-stage sampling, 多阶段抽样Multivariate T distribution, 多元T分布Mutual exclusive, 互不相容Mutual independence, 互相独立Natural boundary, 自然边界Natural dead, 自然死亡Natural zero, 自然零Negative correlation, 负相关Negative linear correlation, 负线性相关Negatively skewed, 负偏Newman-Keuls method, q检验NK method, q检验No statistical significance, 无统计意义Nominal variable, 名义变量Nonconstancy of variability, 变异的非定常性Nonlinear regression, 非线性相关Nonparametric statistics, 非参数统计Nonparametric test, 非参数检验Nonparametric tests, 非参数检验Normal deviate, 正态离差Normal distribution, 正态分布Normal equation, 正规方程组Normal ranges, 正常范围Normal value, 正常值Nuisance parameter, 多余参数/讨厌参数Null hypothesis, 无效假设Numerical variable, 数值变量Objective function, 目标函数Observation unit, 观察单位Observed value, 观察值One sided test, 单侧检验One-way analysis of variance, 单因素方差分析Oneway ANOVA , 单因素方差分析Open sequential trial, 开放型序贯设计Optrim, 优切尾Optrim efficiency, 优切尾效率Order statistics, 顺序统计量Ordered categories, 有序分类Ordinal logistic regression , 序数逻辑斯蒂回归Ordinal variable, 有序变量Orthogonal basis, 正交基Orthogonal design, 正交试验设计Orthogonality conditions, 正交条件ORTHOPLAN, 正交设计Outlier cutoffs, 离群值截断点Outliers, 极端值OVERALS , 多组变量的非线性正规相关Overshoot, 迭代过度Paired design, 配对设计Paired sample, 配对样本Pairwise slopes, 成对斜率Parabola, 抛物线Parallel tests, 平行试验Parameter, 参数Parametric statistics, 参数统计Parametric test, 参数检验Partial correlation, 偏相关Partial regression, 偏回归Partial sorting, 偏排序Partials residuals, 偏残差Pattern, 模式Pearson curves, 皮尔逊曲线Peeling, 退层Percent bar graph, 百分条形图Percentage, 百分比Percentile, 百分位数Percentile curves, 百分位曲线Periodicity, 周期性Permutation, 排列P-estimator, P估计量Pie graph, 饼图Pitman estimator, 皮特曼估计量Pivot, 枢轴量Planar, 平坦Planar assumption, 平面的假设PLANCARDS, 生成试验的计划卡Point estimation, 点估计Poisson distribution, 泊松分布Polishing, 平滑Polled standard deviation, 合并标准差Polled variance, 合并方差Polygon, 多边图Polynomial, 多项式Polynomial curve, 多项式曲线Population, 总体Population attributable risk, 人群归因危险度Positive correlation, 正相关Positively skewed, 正偏Posterior distribution, 后验分布Power of a test, 检验效能Precision, 精密度Predicted value, 预测值Preliminary analysis, 预备性分析Principal component analysis, 主成分分析Prior distribution, 先验分布Prior probability, 先验概率Probabilistic model, 概率模型probability, 概率Probability density, 概率密度Product moment, 乘积矩/协方差Profile trace, 截面迹图Proportion, 比/构成比Proportion allocation in stratified random sampling, 按比例分层随机抽样Proportionate, 成比例Proportionate sub-class numbers, 成比例次级组含量Prospective study, 前瞻性调查Proximities, 亲近性Pseudo F test, 近似F检验Pseudo model, 近似模型Pseudosigma, 伪标准差Purposive sampling, 有目的抽样QR decomposition, QR分解Quadratic approximation, 二次近似Qualitative classification, 属性分类Qualitative method, 定性方法Quantile-quantile plot, 分位数-分位数图/Q-Q图Quantitative analysis, 定量分析Quartile, 四分位数Quick Cluster, 快速聚类Radix sort, 基数排序Random allocation, 随机化分组Random blocks design, 随机区组设计Random event, 随机事件Randomization, 随机化Range, 极差/全距Rank correlation, 等级相关Rank sum test, 秩和检验Rank test, 秩检验Ranked data, 等级资料Rate, 比率Ratio, 比例Raw data, 原始资料Raw residual, 原始残差Rayleigh's test, 雷氏检验Rayleigh's Z, 雷氏Z值Reciprocal, 倒数Reciprocal transformation, 倒数变换Recording, 记录Redescending estimators, 回降估计量Reducing dimensions, 降维Re-expression, 重新表达Reference set, 标准组Region of acceptance, 接受域Regression coefficient, 回归系数Regression sum of square, 回归平方和Rejection point, 拒绝点Relative dispersion, 相对离散度Relative number, 相对数Reliability, 可靠性Reparametrization, 重新设置参数Replication, 重复Report Summaries, 报告摘要Residual sum of square, 剩余平方和Resistance, 耐抗性Resistant line, 耐抗线Resistant technique, 耐抗技术R-estimator of location, 位置R估计量R-estimator of scale, 尺度R估计量Retrospective study, 回顾性调查Ridge trace, 岭迹Ridit analysis, Ridit分析Rotation, 旋转Rounding, 舍入Row, 行Row effects, 行效应Row factor, 行因素RXC table, RXC表Sample, 样本Sample regression coefficient, 样本回归系数Sample size, 样本量Sample standard deviation, 样本标准差Sampling error, 抽样误差SAS(Statistical analysis system ), SAS统计软件包Scale, 尺度/量表Scatter diagram, 散点图Schematic plot, 示意图/简图Score test, 计分检验Screening, 筛检SEASON, 季节分析Second derivative, 二阶导数Second principal component, 第二主成分SEM (Structural equation modeling), 结构化方程模型Semi-logarithmic graph, 半对数图Semi-logarithmic paper, 半对数格纸Sensitivity curve, 敏感度曲线Sequential analysis, 贯序分析Sequential data set, 顺序数据集Sequential design, 贯序设计Sequential method, 贯序法Sequential test, 贯序检验法Serial tests, 系列试验Short-cut method, 简捷法Sigmoid curve, S形曲线Sign function, 正负号函数Sign test, 符号检验Signed rank, 符号秩Significance test, 显著性检验Significant figure, 有效数字Simple cluster sampling, 简单整群抽样Simple correlation, 简单相关Simple random sampling, 简单随机抽样Simple regression, 简单回归simple table, 简单表Sine estimator, 正弦估计量Single-valued estimate, 单值估计Singular matrix, 奇异矩阵Skewed distribution, 偏斜分布Skewness, 偏度Slash distribution, 斜线分布Slope, 斜率Smirnov test, 斯米尔诺夫检验Source of variation, 变异来源Spearman rank correlation, 斯皮尔曼等级相关Specific factor, 特殊因子Specific factor variance, 特殊因子方差Spectra , 频谱Spherical distribution, 球型正态分布Spread, 展布SPSS(Statistical package for the social science), SPSS统计软件包Spurious correlation, 假性相关Square root transformation, 平方根变换Stabilizing variance, 稳定方差Standard deviation, 标准差Standard error, 标准误Standard error of difference, 差别的标准误Standard error of estimate, 标准估计误差Standard error of rate, 率的标准误Standard normal distribution, 标准正态分布Standardization, 标准化Starting value, 起始值Statistic, 统计量Statistical control, 统计控制Statistical graph, 统计图Statistical inference, 统计推断Statistical table, 统计表Steepest descent, 最速下降法Stem and leaf display, 茎叶图Step factor, 步长因子Stepwise regression, 逐步回归Storage, 存Strata, 层(复数)Stratified sampling, 分层抽样Stratified sampling, 分层抽样Strength, 强度Stringency, 严密性Structural relationship, 结构关系Studentized residual, 学生化残差/t化残差Sub-class numbers, 次级组含量Subdividing, 分割Sufficient statistic, 充分统计量Sum of products, 积和Sum of squares, 离差平方和Sum of squares about regression, 回归平方和Sum of squares between groups, 组间平方和Sum of squares of partial regression, 偏回归平方和Sure event, 必然事件Survey, 调查Survival, 生存分析Survival rate, 生存率Suspended root gram, 悬吊根图Symmetry, 对称Systematic error, 系统误差Systematic sampling, 系统抽样Tags, 标签Tail area, 尾部面积Tail length, 尾长Tail weight, 尾重Tangent line, 切线Target distribution, 目标分布Taylor series, 泰勒级数Tendency of dispersion, 离散趋势Testing of hypotheses, 假设检验Theoretical frequency, 理论频数Time series, 时间序列Tolerance interval, 容忍区间Tolerance lower limit, 容忍下限Tolerance upper limit, 容忍上限Torsion, 扰率Total sum of square, 总平方和Total variation, 总变异Transformation, 转换Treatment, 处理Trend, 趋势Trend of percentage, 百分比趋势Trial, 试验Trial and error method, 试错法Tuning constant, 细调常数Two sided test, 双向检验Two-stage least squares, 二阶最小平方Two-stage sampling, 二阶段抽样Two-tailed test, 双侧检验Two-way analysis of variance, 双因素方差分析Two-way table, 双向表Type I error, 一类错误/α错误Type II error, 二类错误/β错误UMVU, 方差一致最小无偏估计简称Unbiased estimate, 无偏估计Unconstrained nonlinear regression , 无约束非线性回归Unequal subclass number, 不等次级组含量Ungrouped data, 不分组资料Uniform coordinate, 均匀坐标Uniform distribution, 均匀分布Uniformly minimum variance unbiased estimate, 方差一致最小无偏估计Unit, 单元Unordered categories, 无序分类Upper limit, 上限Upward rank, 升秩Vague concept, 模糊概念Validity, 有效性VARCOMP (Variance component estimation), 方差元素估计Variability, 变异性Variable, 变量Variance, 方差Variation, 变异Varimax orthogonal rotation, 方差最大正交旋转Volume of distribution, 容积W test, W检验Weibull distribution, 威布尔分布Weight, 权数Weighted Chi-square test, 加权卡方检验/Cochran检验Weighted linear regression method, 加权直线回归Weighted mean, 加权平均数Weighted mean square, 加权平均方差Weighted sum of square, 加权平方和Weighting coefficient, 权重系数Weighting method, 加权法W-estimation, W估计量W-estimation of location, 位置W估计量Width, 宽度Wilcoxon paired test, 威斯康星配对法/配对符号秩和检验Wild point, 野点/狂点Wild value, 野值/狂值Winsorized mean, 缩尾均值Withdraw, 失访Youden's index, 尤登指数Z test, Z检验Zero correlation, 零相关Z-transformation, Z变换。

iiqe paper 3 模拟题

iiqe paper 3 模拟题

《论文编号:IIQE Paper 3 模拟题》Ⅰ. 绪论IIQE(国际资格考试)是香港证券及期货事务监察委员会设立的考试,旨在评估从业人员在金融领域的专业知识和技能。

本文将就IIQE Paper 3 模拟题展开详细讨论,解答相关问题,为考生提供学习参考。

Ⅱ. 考题分析IIQE Paper 3 模拟题包含了多个部分,涉及不同的金融领域知识,具体考点如下:1. 金融市场2. 证券市场3. 投资组合理论4. 公司理财5. 衍生产品6. 风险管理7. 伦理标准Ⅲ. 解题思路1. 仔细阅读题目,理清考点。

2. 关注题目中的关键词,确定答题思路。

3. 强化对各考点相关知识的学习和理解,做到知识•技能•应用三者结合。

4. 注意审题,在答题过程中要全面回答问题,展示知识面。

Ⅳ. 答题示范1. 关于金融市场题目:金融市场包括哪些主要类型?请简要描述各类型市场的特点。

答:金融市场包括货币市场、资本市场和金融衍生品市场。

货币市场是指短期资金融通的市场,主要特点是流通的货币资金相对较短,市场参与者多为金融机构。

资本市场是指长期资金融通的市场,主要特点是筹资方式多样,市场参与者包括公司、政府和个人投资者。

金融衍生品市场是指各种金融衍生品交易的市场,主要特点是交易对象为金融衍生品合约,具有强大的杠杆效应。

2. 关于证券市场题目:证券市场的基本功能有哪些?请分别阐述。

答:证券市场的基本功能包括融资功能、投资功能和风险管理功能。

融资功能是指证券市场为企业和政府提供融资渠道,帮助其筹集资金。

投资功能是指证券市场为投资者提供投资机会,帮助其获取收益。

风险管理功能是指证券市场通过交易证券等方式进行风险的转移和分散,帮助市场参与者规避风险。

3. 关于投资组合理论题目:什么是有效边界?有效前沿与有效边界有何异同?答:有效边界是指在给定风险水平下,可实现的资产组合收益率的最高线。

有效前沿是指在给定风险水平下,可实现的资产组合中风险最小的线。

酒店运营管理知到章节答案智慧树2023年上海商学院

酒店运营管理知到章节答案智慧树2023年上海商学院

酒店运营管理知到章节测试答案智慧树2023年最新上海商学院第一章测试1.行业结构不合理造成酒店业过度竞争的现象不存在。

参考答案:错2.对于单体酒店来说,立根的基础是当地的人文和区域特色。

参考答案:错3.完善服务体系,实现“线上+线下”完美的双模式在明确酒店定位后,重要的是提升酒店的软实力,即是酒店的服务水准和附加价值参考答案:对4.互联网思维非常注重人的价值,尤其是对酒店行业来说,抓住接触、沟通和服务客户的各种方式,就是“以人为本”宗旨的最重要体现。

参考答案:对5.未来中高端酒店产品需要考虑的是特色和品质,而不是规模。

参考答案:对6.跨界合作可以为酒店投资人创造更多共赢的市场机会。

参考答案:对7.酒店与互联网的冲突就在于关联性,即是酒店的宣传印象和真实体验的完整度和期望度是否维持在理想的落差之中。

参考答案:错8.互联网+计划的目的在于充分发挥互联网的优势,将互联网与传统产业深入融合,以产业升级提升(),最后实现社会财富的增加。

参考答案:经济生产力9.当前,以( )为标志的民宿民俗风酒店盛行。

参考答案:风景旅游名胜;异国风情;鲜明地域特色10.对于单体酒店来说,立根的基础更多的是(),很少能扩大范围跨越地域传播。

参考答案:当地的人文和区域特色第二章测试1.酒店投资成本不可逆性是指由于投资失败导致投资成本部分或全部变成沉没成本,使得无法收回成本。

参考答案:对2.酒店投资的不确定性是指投资者可以相对清楚的知道未来投资收益状况。

参考答案:错3.酒店投资类型可以多样化,如可以进行酒店的产权投资,也可以非产权投资(租赁)。

参考答案:对4.酒店业主可以通过酒店折旧为酒店收入提供税收庇护。

参考答案:对5.一个酒店项目的开发除了开发商,还需要酒店管理公司负责对项目的论证、建筑及内装设计等工作。

参考答案:错6.为使酒店开发更为科学合理,下列哪个公司应尽早参入酒店项目的规划及建设( )参考答案:酒店咨询及管理公司7.请将下列酒店开发的基本步骤按顺序排列()参考答案:项目运营阶段;项目报批阶段;概念化设计阶段;可行性分析阶段;设计建造阶段8.酒店投资的非系统风险不包括()参考答案:经济风险;市场风险9.酒店投资是一种实物投资,下列哪项描述是正确的的()参考答案:最大投资在其建设期;投资周期长;期望收益高10.下列哪个地方属于酒店的创利面积()参考答案:酒店大堂;酒店餐厅;酒店客房第三章测试1.针对负需求而言,当某地区顾客不需要某种餐饮产品时,餐饮管理人员采取措施,扭转这种趋势称为参考答案:扭转式营销2.菜肴销售分析是通过()和()指数进行参考答案:顾客满意和销售额3.影响餐饮产品的价格因素不包括参考答案:地域4.顾客满意程度高,营业收入水平高的菜品属于参考答案:明星5.以下应该删除的菜品是参考答案:销售额小于 1,顾客满意指数小于 16.以下业务能力属于餐饮部门高层管理能力的范围的是参考答案:市场营销策划;菜单设计与定价;目标预算制定7.企业地理位置、交通条件和就餐环境均属于餐饮部门的可控因素参考答案:错8.餐饮部门是五星级酒店中带来收益最高的部门。

选择问题的基本准则

选择问题的基本准则

选择问题的基本准则English Answer:Basic Criteria for Question Selection.An effective question selection process is crucial for a successful research project, survey, or interview. By following certain criteria, researchers can ensure that the questions asked are relevant, meaningful, and provide valuable insights.1. Research Objectives: The questions selected should directly align with the specific research objectives and hypotheses. Each question should contribute to answering the overall research question or testing the hypotheses.2. Target Audience: Questions should be tailored to the intended audience. Consider their background, knowledge level, and interests. Questions that are too technical or jargon-filled may not be understood by all participants.3. Question Types: Choose question types that willyield the most appropriate data for the research purpose. Open-ended questions allow for in-depth responses, while closed-ended questions provide quantitative data and simplify analysis.4. Clarity and Conciseness: Questions should be clear, concise, and easy to understand. Avoid ambiguous language or double meanings. Each question should focus on a single topic or concept.5. Objectivity and Bias: Questions should be objective and unbiased. Avoid leading questions that suggest a desired response or contain value judgments.6. Sensitivity and Ethics: Consider the sensitivity and ethical implications of questions. Avoid asking questions that could cause harm, discomfort, or violate participants' privacy.7. Response Rate: Design questions that encourageparticipants to respond. Avoid questions that are too personal, socially undesirable, or difficult to answer.8. Pretesting and Validation: Pretest the questions ona small sample to ensure they are clear, understandable, and yield meaningful responses. Validate the questions by comparing them with other research or data sources.9. Sequencing and Flow: The order and flow of questions should be logical and coherent. Consider the sequence in which the questions are asked and how they build upon each other.10. Open-Ended vs. Closed-Ended Questions: Determine the appropriate balance between open-ended and closed-ended questions. Open-ended questions provide detailed insights, while closed-ended questions facilitate statistical analysis.Chinese Answer:问题选择的准则。

DLS 样品制备指南

DLS 样品制备指南

Guide for DLS sample preparationEric Farrell & Jean-Luc Brousseau Ph.D.NomenclatureThe term solvent refers the pure solvent used toprepare the diluent. Examples of solvents are toluene or water. The diluent may also be referred to as the liquid in DLS textbooks. Diluents are solvent with additives, for example a 10% by weight methanol in water or a 10 mM KNO 3 salt in DI water solution. The samples to be analyzed by DLS will be prepared in the liquid. The solution or suspension to be measured is the sample in the liquid. Although there are differences, the terms suspended and dissolved will be used interchangeably in this document.Aqueous measurementsParticle size measurements by DLS should not beconducted in pure de-ionized (DI) water, as the electrical double layer surrounding the particles will have long distance interaction. The size measured in DI water will usually be too big by 2 to 10 nm due to the electrostatic interaction between the particles. To screen any charge on the particles, it is a good idea to measure in water with a trace amount of salt. The ions with opposite charge will condense around the particle, screening long distance electrostatic interactions. A general salt like NaCl can be used but often the chloride ions are too aggressive and may react with the particles or adsorb to their surface. We recommend the use of KNO 3 for aqueous diluents. A concentration of 10 mM KNO 3 is ideal for all concentrations of particles.Diluent / LiquidIf the liquid is a pure solvent like toluene, thepurest solvent possible shouldbe sourced. Non-polar solvents do not usually dissolve or carry dust. These canThis document is intended to help the user determine the best way to prepare samples for dynamic light scattering (DLS) measurements. If the user wants to know how to prepare the 92nm latex standard for best measurements, please refer to the document entitled "A Guide toProper Sample Preparation: Electrostatically-Stabilized Nanoparticles in Water.”be used as is, as any filtering and manipulation will only risk adding dust. If the solvent is polar, then chances are that filtering will help remove dust in the solvent. In the case of aqueous diluents like KNO 3 in water, filtering is needed as salts are notoriously full of dust. It is always a good practice to filter the aqueous diluent using a 0.1 or 0.2 micrometer filter that has been previously rinsed according to the manufacturer’s practice. Rinsing the filter is an important step that should not be omitted.Dry sample dissolutionIf your sample is a dry powder, it will need to bedissolved or suspended before it can be measured. If the sample is a protein, the solution should not be stirred too aggressively and should never be sonicated. If the sample is sturdy, then sonication, vortex, spinning and other methods can be used to dissolve/suspend the sample. It is for the user to figure out the dissolution time and method. Experiment with different dissolution methods and time. In the case of a sample that disperses quickly, the time to disperse with agitation may be only a few minutes. Large polymers may require more than 24 hours to completely dissolve into solution. When preparing your sample, take a good look at how the sample is dispersing. For further information on preparing stable suspensions from dry powders, refer to ISO standard 14887 entitled “Sample preparation – Dispersing procedures for powders in liquids.”Liquid sample preparationFor liquid samples, the sample may need to bediluted. It is ideal to dilute the sample in the same exact liquid it was originally prepared in, using the same concentrations of additives (i.e. salts, surfactants,dispersing agents) if any were present. In highly concentrated liquid samples, the samples may appear opaque or milky-white. If the sample is highly concentrated, the sample should be diluted in the liquid of choice. Usually putting a drop of the neat sample in 20 mL of liquid or doing a 1:1000 dilution should be sufficient.ConcentrationsSolutions prepared for DLS will need to be clearto very slightly hazy. Although the instrument can measure solutions at concentration up to 40% and possibly more, the size measured in these cases will be wrong. It is not a DLS measurement if the sample is not clear. The Stokes-Einstein equation applies to infinitely dilute solutions. Highly concentrated measurements can be made for diffusing wave spectroscopy (DWS) and other applications. For DLS particle sizing, the sample needs to be water clear to very slightly hazy. If the solution is white or too hazy, it should be diluted further before attempting a DLS size measurement. If the sample is too concentrated, the measured size of your particles will be inaccurate due to multiple scattering or viscosity effects. Multiple scattering occurs when the particle concentration is high enough where the light scattered from a single particle is re-scattered by others in the suspension. This will cause your measured particle size to be artificially low. Viscosity effects occur when the volume of sample added to the liquid is enough such that it will alter the viscosity of the liquid. If the liquid viscosity is wrong due to viscosity effects, your measured particle size will also be wrong. A simple schematic is shown to describe the effects ofmeasuring at high concentration. Depending on the sample and the liquid, a size reduction or a size increase can be seen when theconcentration is too high for DLS. At extremely high concentrations, this phenomenom usually reverses.When the solution is ready for analysis, it should be inspected for particles at the bottom of the cuvette. If there are particles at the bottom of the cuvette, the sample distribution will not be accurate, as the large settled particles will not be measured, resulting in an inaccurate size distribution. Samples with large particles settling are either not dispersed correctly (wrong pH, not enough sonication, not enough dilution time, etc.) or are not suitable for DLS. For low density particles, samples may exhibit the opposite behavior. Creaming is the term used for large particles of lower density than the solvent reaching the top of the sample. If the sample is creaming, there is either a dispersion problem or the particles are too big to be measured by DLS.When the solution is ready for analysis and placed in the cuvette, care should be taken to avoid bubbles that may form on the walls of the cuvette. Slowly tilting or tapping the cuvette on a hard surface may help also.Colored solutionsIn the case of colored solutions, as long as the laser light is not absorbed completely by the solution, the sample can be measured. Colored samples and fluorescing samples may be harder to measure. Often the sample is available without the fluorescent dye or the absorbing chromophore. In this case it will be easier to measure the sample without the dye/chromophore present. To distinguish the scattering from the inherent color of a sample, try reading text through the sample. If the text can be read, then the scattering is not creating most of the opacity.Filtering the solutionIf the solution is to be filtered, keep in mind that the size distribution may be changed if the particles are removed by the filter. A good rule of thumb is to use a pore size (filter size) 3 times larger than the largest size to be measured. For DLS a 5 micrometer filter can be used in most cases. Always verify that the largest size measured is smaller than the filter pore size by a factor of 3. Always rinse the filter prior to use. These recommendations are valid for all filters except the Whatman Anotop series filters. For Whatman Anotop series filters, pass the first drop of sample to waste.MeasurementsOnce the solution is homogenous and ready for DLS measurement, the solution can be placed in the instrument. For the novice, there are two ways of checking that the concentration is not too high and that the DLS measurement will be valid.1) Count rate check: For an instrument equipped with an APD, the count rate for the scattering intensity of the dilute solution should be less than 2 Mcps (2,000,000 count per seconds) with the intensity maximized. Note that measurements SHOULD NOT be made at this high count rate. The maximum count rate for the measurement should be 500-600 kcps. The attenuator will need to be adjusted after measuring the scattering intensity on maximum intensity in most cases, especially if the count rate is greater than 600 kcps.2) Dilution check: The second way to verify that the concentration is suitable for DLS measurements is to dilute your sample by 50% after the first measurement. If the size of the dilution is the same as the size of the more concentrated measurement and the count rate is reduced by a factor of 2, then the first measurement concentration was low enough.After many measurements it will be easy to assess the concentration of the solution to be measured.Forbest practices for measuring samples size, please refer to the document “Guide for DLS measurements”.Nanoparticle, Protein, & Polymer Characterization。

巧克力英语作文

巧克力英语作文

Chocolate,a delicacy cherished by many,is a versatile ingredient that can be found in a variety of forms,from sweet treats to rich beverages.Here are some aspects of chocolate that one might explore in an English essay:1.Historical Origins:Delve into the history of chocolate,tracing its roots to the ancient Mesoamerican civilizations who first cultivated cacao trees.Discuss how it was consumed as a bitter beverage by the Mayans and Aztecs and how it evolved into the sweet treat we know today.2.Cultural Significance:Explore the cultural significance of chocolate in different societies.For instance,how it became a symbol of luxury in Europe after its introduction by the Spanish and how it is associated with celebrations and gifts in modern times.3.Types of Chocolate:Describe the different types of chocolate,such as dark,milk,and white chocolate,and their varying compositions.Discuss the impact of the percentage of cocoa solids on the flavor and health benefits.4.Production Process:Elaborate on the process of chocolate production,from the harvesting of cacao pods to the fermentation,drying,roasting,and grinding of the beans, and finally the conching and tempering processes that give chocolate its smooth texture.5.Health Benefits:Discuss the potential health benefits of chocolate,particularly dark chocolate with high cocoa content,which is rich in antioxidants and has been linked to heart health and cognitive function.6.Chocolate in Cuisine:Highlight the use of chocolate in various culinary creations, from desserts like chocolate cake and brownies to savory dishes and even in molecular gastronomy.7.Ethical Considerations:Address the ethical issues surrounding chocolate production, such as fair trade and child labor,and how consumers can make informed choices to support ethical practices.8.Chocolate Art and Craftsmanship:Appreciate the artistry involved in chocolate making, from handcrafted truffles to intricate chocolate sculptures,and the skill of chocolatiers who create edible works of art.9.Global Impact:Examine the global impact of the chocolate industry,including its economic influence,environmental considerations,and the role of multinational corporations versus artisanal chocolate makers.10.Personal Experiences:Share personal experiences with chocolate,such as favorite childhood memories associated with chocolate treats,or a memorable visit to a chocolate factory or shop.When writing an essay on chocolate,its important to choose a specific angle or a combination of angles that interest you e descriptive language to engage the readers senses and provide a rich,nuanced exploration of the topic.。

广告调查常用语简录

广告调查常用语简录

广告调查常用语简录AApplied research -------------------------------------应用型调查Attitude----------------------------------------------态度Allowable sampling error------------------------------允许抽样误差Analysis of variance (ANOVA)------------------------方差分析Attention span----------------------------------------注意力集中A priori segmentation---------------------------------先期市场细分Ad positioning statement tests------------------------广告定位宣传测试Ad concept testing------------------------------------广告概念测试Audience rating---------------------------------------收视率Ad tracking research----------------------------------广告跟踪调查BBasic research----------------------------------------基础性调查Balanced scales---------------------------------------平衡量表Bivariate techniques----------------------------------二元变量法Bivariate regression analysis-------------------------二元变量回归分析CConsumer orientation----------------------------------消费者导向Custom, or Ad hoc, marketingresearch firms----------------------------------------定制市场调查公司Causal studies----------------------------------------因果性研究Concomitant variation---------------------------------相随变化Cartoon tests-----------------------------------------漫画测试法Consumer drawings-------------------------------------消费者绘图Computer-assisted telephoneinterviewing(CATI)----------------------------------电脑辅助电话调查Content analysis--------------------------------------内容分析Causal research---------------------------------------因果调查Concomitant variation---------------------------------相关关系Contamination-----------------------------------------干扰Comparative scales------------------------------------比较性量表Constant sum scales-----------------------------------固定总数量表Closed-ended questions--------------------------------封闭式问题Call record sheets------------------------------------通话纪录单Census------------------------------------------------普查Cluster samples---------------------------------------整群抽样Convenience samples-----------------------------------便利抽样Central limit theorem---------------------------------中心极限定理Confidence level--------------------------------------置信度Coding------------------------------------------------编码Crosstablulation--------------------------------------交互分组表Coefficient of determination--------------------------可决系数Correlation analysis----------------------------------相关分析Collinearity------------------------------------------共线性Causation---------------------------------------------因果关系Cluster analysis--------------------------------------聚类分析Conjoint analysis-------------------------------------联合分析Consumer Satisfaction---------------------------------消费者满意度Communication-----------------------------------------沟通DDescriptive function----------------------------------描述功能Diagnostic function-----------------------------------诊断功能Descriptive studies-----------------------------------描述性研究Dependent variable------------------------------------因变量Database marketing------------------------------------数据库营销Database management system----------------------------数据库管理系统Discussion guide--------------------------------------讨论提纲Depth interview---------------------------------------深度访谈法Door-to-door interviewing-----------------------------入户访问Direct computer interviewing--------------------------电脑直接访问Disguised observation---------------------------------掩饰观察Dichotomous questions---------------------------------二项式问题Discriminate score------------------------------------判别分Discriminate coefficient------------------------------判别系数Downward communication--------------------------------下行沟通EExploratory research----------------------------------试探性调查Experiments-------------------------------------------实验Evaluative research-----------------------------------评估性调查Executive interviewing--------------------------------经理访谈Experiment--------------------------------------------实验法External validity-------------------------------------外在有效性Editing-----------------------------------------------编辑Error check routines----------------------------------错误检查程序Executive summary-------------------------------------执行性摘要Ethics------------------------------------------------伦理Field service firms----------------------------------实地调查公司Focus group interview(FGI)-------------------------焦点小组访谈法Focus group facility---------------------------------焦点小组测试室Focus group moderator--------------------------------焦点访谈主持人Frame error------------------------------------------抽样框误差Finite population correction factor------------------有限总体修正指数Factor analysis--------------------------------------因子分析Factor loadings--------------------------------------因子载荷GGoal orientation-------------------------------------目标导向Group dynamics---------------------------------------群体动力HHypothesis-------------------------------------------假设Humanistic inquiry-----------------------------------人文调查IIndependent variable---------------------------------自变量Internal database -----------------------------------内部数据库Interviewer error------------------------------------访问员误差Incidence rate---------------------------------------发生率Interval scales--------------------------------------等距量表Itemized rating scales-------------------------------列举评比量表Interviewer's instructions---------------------------调查员说明Interval estimates-----------------------------------区间估计Intelligent data entry-------------------------------智能数据录入JJudgment samples-------------------------------------判断抽样LLongitudinal study-----------------------------------纵向研究Likert scales----------------------------------------利克特量表Low ball pricing-------------------------------------虚报价格Marketing--------------------------------------------营销;行销Marketing concept------------------------------------市场营销观念Marketing mix----------------------------------------营销组合Marketing research-----------------------------------市场调查Marketing strategy-----------------------------------营销战略Marketing research problem---------------------------市场调查问题Marketing research objective-------------------------市场调查目标Management decision problem--------------------------管理决策问题Measurement------------------------------------------测量Measurement error------------------------------------测量误差Measurement instrument error-------------------------测量工具误差Mall intercept interviewing--------------------------街上拦截法Mail panels------------------------------------------固定邮寄样本调查Multidimensional scaling-----------------------------多维量表Multi-choice question--------------------------------多项选择题Machine cleaning of data-----------------------------数据自动清理Marginal Report--------------------------------------边际报告Mean-------------------------------------------------均值Median-----------------------------------------------中位数Mode-------------------------------------------------众数Multivariate analysis--------------------------------多变量分析Multiple regression analysis-------------------------多元回归分析Market segmentation----------------------------------市场细分NNonprobability samples-------------------------------非随机样本Nonresponses bias------------------------------------拒访误差Nominal scales---------------------------------------类别量表Nonbalanced scales-----------------------------------非平衡量表Normal distribution----------------------------------正态分布Noise------------------------------------------------噪音OObservation research---------------------------------观察调查法Open observation-------------------------------------共开观察One-way mirror observation---------------------------单向镜观察法Ordinal scales---------------------------------------顺序量表Open-ended questions---------------------------------开放式问题Optical scanning-------------------------------------光学扫描录入One-way frequency table------------------------------单向频数表On-air testing---------------------------------------实际播放测试PPredictive function----------------------------------预测功能Programmatic research--------------------------------计划性调查Probability samples----------------------------------随机样本Primary data-----------------------------------------原始资料Projective techniques--------------------------------投射法Photo sort-------------------------------------------照片归类法Population specification error-----------------------调查对象范围误差Processing error-------------------------------------处理过程误差People reader----------------------------------------阅读器Pupil meter------------------------------------------测瞳仪Purchase intent scales-------------------------------购买意向量表Paired comparison scales-----------------------------配对比较量表Pretest----------------------------------------------预先测试Population-------------------------------------------总体Proportional allocation------------------------------按比例分配Point estimates--------------------------------------点估计Population standard deviation------------------------总体的标准差Presentation software--------------------------------提案软件Profession-------------------------------------------职业Professionalism--------------------------------------专业水平Product positioning research-------------------------产品定位调查Post hoc segmentation--------------------------------后期市场细分Product prototype tests------------------------------产品原型测试Product pricing research-----------------------------产品定价研究Packaging tests--------------------------------------包装测试Product concept testing------------------------------产品概念测试QQualitative research---------------------------------定性调查Quantitative research--------------------------------定量调查Questionnaire----------------------------------------问卷Quota samples----------------------------------------配额抽样RResearch request-------------------------------------调查申请Response bias----------------------------------------回答误差Random error(random sampling error)----------------随机(抽样)误差Ratio scales-----------------------------------------等比量表Rule-------------------------------------------------规则Rank-order scales------------------------------------等级顺序量表Random digit dialing---------------------------------随机数字拨号Range------------------------------------------------全距Regression coefficients------------------------------回归系数Research management----------------------------------调查管理Reengineering----------------------------------------再造SSystem orientation-----------------------------------系统导向Syndicated service research firms--------------------辛迪加服务调查公司Strategic partnering---------------------------------战略伙伴关系Spurious association---------------------------------虚假联系Survey research--------------------------------------询问调查Selective research-----------------------------------选择性调查Secondary data---------------------------------------二手资料Sentence and story completion------------------------句子与故事完成法Self-administered questionnaire----------------------自我管理问卷Systematic error-------------------------------------系统误差Selection error--------------------------------------抽选误差Structured observation-------------------------------结构性观察Shopper patterns-------------------------------------购买者模式Shopper behavior research----------------------------购买者行为研究Simulated Test Marketing(STM)----------------------模拟市场测试Scaling----------------------------------------------量表Semantic difference----------------------------------语意差别法Staple scales----------------------------------------中心量表Survey objectives------------------------------------询问目标Screeners--------------------------------------------过滤性问题Scaled-response question-----------------------------量表式问题Supervisor's instructions----------------------------管理这说明Sample-----------------------------------------------样本Sample frame-----------------------------------------抽样框Simple random sampling-------------------------------简单随机抽样Systematic sampling----------------------------------等距抽样(系统抽样)Snowball samples-------------------------------------滚雪球抽样Stratified samples-----------------------------------分层抽样Sample distribution----------------------------------样本分布Sampling distribution of the sample mean-------------样本平均数的抽样分布Standard error of the mean---------------------------平均数的标准误差Sampling distribution of the population--------------比例抽样分布Standard normal distribution-------------------------标准正态分布Standard deviation-----------------------------------标准差Skip pattern------------------------------------------跳跃方式Selective perception----------------------------------选择性知觉Single-number research--------------------------------单一调查数据TTemporal sequence-------------------------------------时间序列Telephone focus groups--------------------------------电话焦点访谈法Two-way focus groups----------------------------------双向焦点访谈法Third-person techniques-------------------------------第三人称法UUnstructured observation------------------------------非结构性观察Unidimensional scaling--------------------------------一维量表Upward communication----------------------------------上行沟通Unstructured segmentation-----------------------------随意细分VVariable----------------------------------------------变量Variance ---------------------------------------------方差Validation--------------------------------------------确认WWord association tests--------------------------------语句联想法。

英国高铁制造商的筛选

英国高铁制造商的筛选

Application of the analytic hierarchy process to identify the most suitable manufacturer of rail vehicles for High Speed 2Shobhan Dhir a ,Marin Varbanov Marinov b ,*,David Worsley ba Mechanical and Systems Engineering School,University of Newcastle,Newcastle upon Tyne,United Kingdom bNewRail,Newcastle University,United KingdomA R T I C L E I N F OArticle history:Received 3June 2014Received in revised form 9July 2015Accepted 19August 2015Available online 25September 2015Keywords:Rolling stock ManufacturerAnalytic hierarchy process ComparisonsA B S T R A C TThe objective of this paper is to use an appropriate strategic decision-making method to identify the most suitable manufacturer of rail vehicles for the UK infrastructure project High Speed 2.This comprises identifying the potential alternatives,considering the use of methodologies such as cost-bene fit analysis and multi-criteria analysis,and applying a particular form of multi-criteria analysis,namely the Analytic Hierarchy Process.This allows for effective comparison of the four primary rolling stock manufacturers:Bombardier,Siemens,Hitachi and Alstom.The process involves conducting pairwise comparisons with respect to designated criteria.Eigenvectors are calculated in order to normalise the results of the pairwise comparisons,and matrix algebra is used to combine the Eigenvectors for individual criteria in to an overall result,thereby indicating a recommended manufacturer.ã2015World Conference on Transport Research Society.Published by Elsevier Ltd.All rights reserved.1.IntroductionHigh Speed 2(HS2)is the current proposal to implement a high speed railway in the UK.It is split in to two phases and is estimated for full completion by 2033(HS2Ltd.,2014b ).The manufacturer for the high speed rail vehicles has not yet been chosen;however,the current investment budget for rolling stock stands at £9.2bn,comprising a base estimate of £7.5bn with £1.7bn of contingency (HS2Ltd.,2014a ).This amounts to approximately one fifth of the entire expected project cost,a very signi ficant component;the decision as to which manufacturer will receive the investment and deliver the high speed vehicles is therefore of high importance.Due to the substantial amount of resources to be invested in this project,decisions for how to best use them must be made in an appropriate and justi fied manner.However,there have been several discrepancies within the project's current decision-making and appraisal methodology.There have been historic cases where decisions have been forced by biased assumptions and question-able demand forecasting (Aizlewood and Wellings,2011).This has resulted in setbacks which could have been avoided.It is therefore crucial that initial decisions are made using an appropriate and defensible methodology.The aim of this investigation is to identify a decision-making approach which can be adapted and applied tolarge strategic decisions for HS2.Once identi fied,this process will be implemented in order to reach a justi fiable decision.Upon identifying the method,the contribution of this study is a complete analysis for a critical strategic decision that has yet to be made,namely identifying the most suitable manufacturer of rail vehicles for High Speed 2.This is to be achieved by the use of a mathematically-justi fied strategic decision-making method known as the Analytic Hierarchy Process (Saaty,1999).A conclusion will be presented regarding which rail manufacturer would be most suitable to manufacture and deliver the high speed trains for HS2.The reasons behind this recommendation will be explained and the validity of the model will be evaluated.Potential future applications of the model and this form of analysis will be considered.1.1.ObjectiveThe objective of this investigation is to identify the most suitable manufacturer of the high speed trains for HS2using an appropriate strategic decision-making method.1.2.MethodologyThis project involves a four-step approach:firstly,formulating the strategic objective of identifying the most suitable manufac-turer and considering what exactly is meant by ‘the most suitable manufacturer ’;secondly,identifying the most appropriate method to employ through critical analysis of the alternatives;thirdly,*Corresponding author.E-mail address:marin.marinov@ (M.V.Marinov)./10.1016/j.cstp.2015.08.0042213-624X/ã2015World Conference on Transport Research Society.Published by Elsevier Ltd.All rights reserved.Case Studies on Transport Policy 3(2015)431–448Contents lists available at ScienceDirectCase Studies on Transport Policyj o u r n a l h o m e p a g e :w w w.e l s e v i e r.c o m /l o c a t e /c s tpdesigning the decision-making model and applying it to the problem;finally,recommending the most suitable manufacturer, evaluating the results,and considering the method's potential future application.2.Brief overview of HS2Due to the complexity of the HS2project,it is important to understand the fundamentals of the proposal.2.1.The routeThe current proposed route for HS2is split in to two phases. Phase1runs from London to Birmingham and is around140miles long.Phase2incorporates two lines:a Western leg,about95miles long,from Birmingham to Manchester,and an Eastern leg,about 116miles long,from Birmingham to Leeds(HS2Ltd.,2014a).These routes are shown in Fig.1.Fig.1also shows the stations through which the HS2line will pass and its connectivity to the existing rail network.The planned route will provide improved connectivity to all areas of the North, including Newcastle,Glasgow and Edinburgh,and may provide the basis for construction of further high speed lines in the future.2.2.High speed trainsThe specific design requirements for the rolling stock have been outlined.The trains shall operate at speeds of200–225mph,with the potential capability to operate at250mph(faster than any current operating speeds in Europe).They are to be400mlongFig.1.HS2proposed route(Cross,2013).432S.Dhir et al./Case Studies on Transport Policy3(2015)431–448with up to1100seats per train.Once Phase1has been completed, trains are scheduled to run out of Euston14times per hour;upon completion of Phase2,this frequency will increase to18times per hour.Several of the vehicles will also be required to be‘classic compatible’,which necessitates the ability to travel on conven-tional lines to Liverpool,Scotland and the North East(HS2Ltd., 2012,2014a,2013;,2014).2.3.What makes a‘suitable manufacturer’?Aside from these specific design constraints there are also technical requirements that must be met,such as adhering to the EU Technical Specifications for Interoperability(TSIs)(RSSB,2013). However,the most important factors include the capability of the manufacturer to be able to deliver and maintain the vehicles, coupled with the assurance that the trains will be reliable(HS2 Ltd.,2012).These are quite intangible variables.It is hence difficult to compare the manufacturers easily in terms of suitability using a simple scale.Therefore,it was necessary to identify an appropriate strategic model that can incorporate these variables.2.4.Objectives of HS2In order to choose the most suitable manufacturer,the primary motivations for HS2must be studied.According to the New Economics Foundation(NEF),the primary objectives of HS2can be summarised from official documentation and ministerial state-ments as being to:“Provide essential future rail capacity.Catalyse economic growth and job creation in Britain.Rebalance the nation’s economic geography and tackling the North–South economic divide.Contribute to Britain’s low-carbon future”(Kersley and Theiss, 2013)The two principal objectives,as outlined in the strategic business case for HS2,are given below:“The capacity objective is to create sufficient capacity to provide for long term demand for rail travel and improve rail network resilience and reliability,ensuring that people and goods are able to make the journeys they want.The connectivity objective is to improve journey times,making travel quicker,easier,more punctual and more convenient for people and goods,including supporting end-to-end journeys with effective integration and interchange between transport modes and with good connections,including with major airports,for international travel.”(DfT et al.,2013,p.77)These objectives need to be at the forefront of the decision-making process,coupled with the other factors deemed to be most important.3.Identification of the strategic decision-making methodThe three alternative methods chosen for evaluation are Cost-Benefit Analysis(CBA),Multi Criteria Analysis(MCA)and the Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP).3.1.Cost-benefit analysis(CBA)CBA involves weighing up the benefits and costs of each proposal against each other to form the basis of a decision for a particular choice or course of action.The pros and cons of each potential option are identified,and a monetised assessment of these is made in order to produce afinal recommendation.Its effectiveness lies in its simplicity(O’Farrell,2014).Calculation of a benefit–cost ratio(BCR)is a principal technique used as part of a CBA approach to making effective strategic decisions.An example of this approach to a strategic decision-making issue is given in Table1.Table1appraises the economic performance of the main HS2 project against some potential strategic alternatives using BCRs. Combined with Table2,which has been reproduced from the Department for Transport’s(DfT’s)own documents,it illustrates that HS2,without‘Wider Economic Impacts’(WEIs)included, presents only‘medium’value for money.With WEIs included,this may move in to the high category.However,since some WEIs are relatively intangible(e.g.agglomeration benefits),it is arguably not sufficient to rely upon them to provide evidence for the economic value of a project.According to the DfT's own Transport Business Case guidance,publicly-supported infrastructure projects should generally have a BCR greater than2.0(Worsley,2013);the DfT's BCR is defined as the ratio of the“monetised benefit to society”to the“net cost to government”.It is also important to mention that the Eddington Transport Study(2006)found that the average BCR for UK rail investments was2.83,significantly higher than the calculated value for HS2shown above.Table1Comparison of HS2against other strategic alternatives using Benefit–Cost Ratios(Oxera,2012).Extra capacity Costs Benefits(excl.WEIs)BCR(excl.WEIs)Benefits(incl.WEIs)BCR(Ind.WEIs)%£billion NPV£billion NPV£billion NPVLondon-West MidlandsHS2>1001419 1.423.1 1.7Strategic alternatives‘RP2’562849 4.7‘RP2A’5637 2.78 3.1‘51M’5616 5.27 6.1Y networkHS2>1002541–47 1.6–1.947–59 1.8–2.5Strategic alternatives‘Scenario B’56/133/1141014 1.416 1.6Note:‘RP2’,‘RP2A’,‘51M’and‘Scenario B’are names given to conventional alternatives to high-speed rail.These strategic alternatives are packages of enhancements to the conventional network rather than new conventional lines.The alternatives to HS2are primarily upgrades to the West Coast Main Line.while the alternative to the Y network also includes upgrades to the East Coast Main Line.Source:Atkins(2012).‘High Speed Rad Strategic Alternatives Study Update Following Consultation’.Januar.Table2Benefit Cost Ratio Value for Money categories(Kersley and Theiss,2013).Value for money category Benefit cost ratioPoor Less than1.0Low Between1.0and1.5Medium Between1.5and2.0High Between2.0and4.0Very high Greater than4.0S.Dhir et al./Case Studies on Transport Policy3(2015)431–448433When comparing HS2to the strategic alternatives,it is clear that the BCR for HS2London-West Midlands is also much lower in comparison to each alternative,whilst without WEIs the alter-natives'net benefits are only slightly lower than the London-West Midlands section of HS2.However,when examining the proposed full Y-network,it can be seen that the BCR for the Y-network is greater than that of the proposed strategic alternative(Scenario B). This could be expected,since high speed rail is utilised best over greater distances,as the actual high speed is maintained for longer, yielding more significant journey time savings.It is reasonable to assume that Phase1of HS2is not intended to perform as a standalone infrastructure project,but merely as thefirst half of the project;even considering the Y-network,it is plausible to assume further northward construction of high speed lines to reach Edinburgh and Newcastle may be on the agenda in future.This is also backed up by Oxera(2012,p.3),who stated that“Although analysis of the Y network extension is much less advanced,the proposition that the case for thefirst phase is predicated on later extensions is likely to be well-founded,given that high-speed rail is more competitive over longer distances”.This is one of the major flaws in BCR analysis,as it is hard to include and value qualitative concepts such as the potential for future expansion.The BCR and other metrics for CBA,such as net present value(NPV),can only be objectively valid when measuringfinancial and economic factors. Their application when valuing non-monetised factors is much less accurate as they become a subjective opinion.These points cannot be directly addressed or used as part of a CBA decision-making approach.Taking into account qualitative concepts for comparison by assigning afinancial or monetised value is potentially inaccurate.This is demonstrated by how the DfT valued time in their appraisal of HS2.The issue which underlies the primary criticism of the DfT’s economic case for HS2is the value of time saved,in particular how they valued travel time saved to monetise the benefits in a way that could be compared to the costs.The DfT’s case is heavily based on the benefits of time savings for travellers,and the assumption they used was that all time spent on a train is not productive at all and therefore has a value of zero:“The methodology then argues that that time on board a train is entirely wasted for business travellers so that a minute saved in journey time is an additional productive minute”(Aizlewood and Wellings,2011,p.28).This is completely mistaken as merely travelling on a train and observing passengers will show business travellers working on laptops,taking calls, reading journals,etc.This is all clearly productive and not a waste of time.Oxera(2012,p.2)also identified this criticism and stated it is an“unrealistic assumption,given that casual observation on any train journey wouldfind some evidence of passengers working”.In addition to this assumption,the DfT have used a very high value for passengers'time:“For the appraisal of HS2,the DfT’s value of time for rail passengers is based on passenger earnings of approximately£70,000per annum or above,in2010values.Mean annual pay for workers in the UK in2010was£26,510,with even the90th percentile only earning a mean salary of£46,428.If the average of£46,428were used to estimate the value of time savings from HS2,still arguably a high value,the BCR would fall to the bottom of the“low”value for money category”(Kersley and Theiss, 2013,p.7).This clearly demonstrates skewed assumptions regarding the value of time,which will have led to inflated and exaggerated user benefits,at the heart of the economic case for HS2.This also shows how easily manipulated and biased the CBA process can be,despite its simplicity.As the New Economics Forum have said:“Put simply, without a high value for time saved,the economic case for HS2is seriously degraded.55per cent of the benefits of HS2according to the DfT's analysis are based on the value of travel time savings”(Kersley and Theiss,2013,p.7).This lowers confidence in the entire economic case for HS2,and was even acknowledged by KPMG(2013),who were commissioned by HS2Ltd to demonstrate the potential economic impact.In their report,a study was carried out to calculate the impact of lowering the value of time of business users on the economic productivity benefits.A sensitivity analysis was used to understand the impact of using a50%reduction in the value of business travellers’time on the total productivity impact for the British economy.The results showed HS2could still potentially generate£12bn per annum in productivity gains in2037(2013prices),which is a20%reduction from the initial forecast of£15bn per annum.This seems a relatively small impact.However,the Institute of Economic Affairs noted the effect it would cause on the user benefits of HS2.By again applying the assumption that only“50%of business travel time is unproductive,without any other change it immediately has the effect of reducing the BCR for the HS2full Y route to less than1.5”(Aizlewood and Wellings,2011,p.29).This is a significant reduction and greatly reduces the value for money of the entire scheme.This further demonstrates how easily a measurement tool of CBA can be manipulated and how invalid the actual outputs can be,even when they are then used as the basis for important decisions.In this case,due to the involvement of many unclear and intangible factors,the use of the CBA method isflawed.A CBA based decision-making method is far too subjective and can be skewed by the biases and assumptions of the analyst undertaking it,because the“ambiguity and uncertainty involved in quantifying and assigning a monetary value to intangible items leads to an inaccurate cost benefit analysis”(Plowman,2011).Another reason why CBA may not be the most appropriate methodology for choosing a rolling stock manufacturer relates to the nature of what items are included in such an analysis.The current methodology for CBA on railway projects was largely specified by the(now defunct)Strategic Railway Authority over a decade ago(SRA, 2003),and it has been subsequently refined by the Department for Transport in its online Transport Appraisal Guidelines.This methodology dictates that the main items counted as socio-economic benefits are the value of passengers’time,and non-user benefits(which is largely road users’time saved by reduced congestion due to a modal shift to rail).In both these cases, the value is a monetised equivalent of time,rather than real revenue or expenditure.Furthermore,the reliability of services can be incorporated in to this analysis by an uplift for time that is lost due to lateness;the DfT guidance suggests that this lost time should count as triple in monetised value for leisure passengers and commuters.Meanwhile,the net costs in a CBA include infrastructure capital costs and operational costs,the latter of which include fuel,staff,vehicle maintenance and infrastructure maintenance.Revenue received is deducted from these costs in order to calculate the net cost to the funding body.CBA is therefore suitable for building a business case for a major infrastructure project such as HS2,which relies on demonstrating that the benefit to society is high enough to justify the investment cost and subsidy to operating costs that will fall on the public purse;thefigures and table above show an attempt to do just that.It would theoretically be possible to incorporate the choice of rolling stock manufacturer in to such a CBA model,as the rolling stock chosen will influence vehicle capacity(and therefore passenger benefits and crowding disbenefits),vehicle cost, maintenance costs,and reliability.However,to do this would require a judgment today regarding the performance and specification of rail vehicles that may have not been designed yet,and how these might vary between different manufacturers. Furthermore,adapting CBA for this purpose would most likely not yield a decisive result,as the costs and benefits that are influenced by the choice of rolling stock manufacturer would most likely be a434S.Dhir et al./Case Studies on Transport Policy3(2015)431–448small part of all the costs and benefits for the scheme;the difference in score between different rolling stock manufacturers would therefore be small.For these reasons,a decision-making methodology is required which does not rely on monetisation,but which does focus directly upon the main criteria for making the decision.Some form of multi-criteria analysis(MCA)is therefore of interest to be adopted.3.2.Multi-criteria analysis(MCA)Multi-criteria analysis(MCA)is an alternative method for decision making that takes into account both the effects that are valued in monetary terms and others that are not.A majorflaw of CBA is its requirement for all costs and benefits to be valued under a common unit(usually monetary terms).However MCA places a weighting factor on the individual effects of each cost and benefit. These weighting factors are often derived by asking a variety of experts,individuals and decision-makers,and are based on the primary objectives of the project.The fundamental difference between MCA and CBA is that economic efficiency is not the sole objective.Qualitative factors are much more effectively taken into account and diverse objectives are integrated into the decision-making process(Bekefiet al.,2003).MCA is a much more suitable decision-making method for the strategic decision considered here,as the extensive range of factors can be fairly taken into consideration.EuropeAid(2005)summed up MCA’s purpose as:“Multi-criteria analysis breaks down the components of complex situations and structures them,in order to progressivelyfind a solution in a transparent way”.This was a desirable method for such a large and significant decision.However,a clear framework is required,where the weightings can be accurately calculated.The success of using MCA relies on its design.If done improperly,without agreement and a thorough structure,its application is very limited and has no true value (Steevens and Linkov,2014).Therefore the issue is not whether or not to employ MCA,but rather which structure to use.Once an appropriate framework is chosen and administered,MCA can actually be more efficient than CBA in evaluating part of a project like HS2(Durrant,2013).The principal drawback of simple MCA is that the judgements about the relative weights assigned to the various criteria are highly subjective.The scores given to each option may not necessarily be as subjective;for example,if one were to undertake an MCA exercise in order to choose which model of new car one should buy,a criterion such as fuel consumption could be judged objectively.However,this may be combined with subjective criteria such as aesthetic appeal(Haas and Meixner,1999).The effectiveness of the MCA technique therefore requires a method of subjective weighting that has some proven validity.The most simple form of MCA relies on assigning a weighting to each criteria,and then a score for each option against each criteria. This could be called multiplicative MCA,as the procedure then requires that a total score is generated for each option by multiplying the score against each criteria by the weighting of that criteria,and calculating the sum of these sub-totals.The two main drawbacks to this form of MCA are:1)The weighting given to each criterion could be arbitrary.Twomethods for choosing the weighting are to either sequentially select a weighting for each criteria(perhaps starting with what is believed to be either the most or least important criterion),or to use a technique such as simple pair-wise comparisons to generate the weightings.Each of these methods lacks any scientific rigour.2)The score for each option against each criteria could also bearbitrary.The method used may consist of assigning a maximum score(e.g.10out of10)to each criterion,and defining this as the best solution imaginable.However,this does not provide any assurance that the relative scores of each option against each other are valid.It is therefore required that the general principle of MCA be refined in such a way as to give some scientifically demonstrable validity to its conclusions;this leads to the consideration of Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP)as a possible method.3.3.The analytic hierarchy process(AHP)An established model of MCA which is renowned for its ability to approach and solve complex,strategic problems is the‘Analytic Hierarchy Process’(AHP)designed by Thomas L.Saaty in the1970s. AHP is a method which involves breaking down unstructured and complex decisions or situations into their primary components. These components are then organised into a hierarchy and their relative numerical values assigned through judgments on their relative importance with regards to each element.Finally these judgments are synthesised to determine the most important alternative and hence,what should be acted upon to best influence the outcome(Saaty,1999).This model provides a framework which breaks down complex decisions into smaller simpler comparisons which,together, produce afinal,mathematically calculated,order of priority and subsequently afinal mathematically-recommended decision.The validity of the Analytic Hierarchy Process,as a decision-making method,has been confirmed and supported in a variety of cases.There are several examples in Saaty’s book(Saaty,1999) where the validity has been established by comparing thefinal derived priorities from the analysis with those achieved by decision makers.For instance,Saaty describes the discussion of top planners within a corporation where they were asked“how the chairman of the board viewed the various sectors of the corporation's activity”.The priorities were derived from pairwise judgments on the allocation of effort.Afterwards,thesefinal priorities were compared against the actual amount of capital invested in each sector.The results were closely matched,hence demonstrating the validity of the AHP pairwise judgements and method.The reason for choosing AHP for application in this study was due to its primary purpose being for strategic level decision making(Saaty,1999).It provides a clear,logical and relatively simple framework to breakdown a complex decision into its fundamental components,hence,providing the structure needed for MCA.It is able to fairly assess quantitative andqualitative Fig.2.Example hierarchy(Saaty,1999).S.Dhir et al./Case Studies on Transport Policy3(2015)431–448435factors,thus,outperforming CBA.Therefore the AHP method was chosen to implement and therefore,make this decision.3.4.Outline of the AHP method1.Defining the problem and desired solution.2.Structuring of the hierarchy.3.Construction of the pairwise comparison matrices.plete all the pairwise judgments using the fundamentalscale.5.Transferral of the judgments into matrices.6.Perform steps3,4and5for all pairwise comparisons.e the synthesis method to produce the eigenvectors andpriorities for each matrix and hence calculate thefinal priorities.(Saaty,1999).4.Application of the analytic hierarchy processThe most suitable manufacturer for the HS2rolling stock was chosen from the four primary manufacturers,identified from research as:BombardierSiemensHitachiAlstomThe possibility of a consortium forming and political influence has been discounted for the purpose of simplifying the analysis.4.1.Define the problem and specify the solution desiredThe problem selected for analysis was choosing the most suitable manufacturer out of the4primary manufacturers capable of designing and building the rolling stock for HS2:Bombardier, Siemens,Hitachi and Alstom.The primary objective was therefore to identify the most suitable manufacturer of high speed trains for HS2,with the solution being a recommendation of the manufac-turer to be chosen for the£9.2bn investment in rolling stock.4.2.Designing the hierarchyThe hierarchy is a simple model which outlines the framework of the process.The hierarchy is designed where the bottom level consists of the‘alternatives’or choices the decision is to be made from.As shown in the example hierarchy,Fig.2,the different possible sites and,in the case of this investigation,the different potential manufacturers for the HS2rolling stock.The middle level consists of the criteria selected to judge the alternatives,such as:‘Population Distributions’or‘Economic Factors’in Fig.2.In the case of this investigation the criteria were designed as shown in Section4.3.Finally,the top level is a single elementknown as the ‘focus’or‘overall purpose’.This is the broad,overall objective of the analysis,in the case of the example‘Most Suitable Site’.The objective of this study is to identify the most suitable manufacturer of high speed trains for HS2,which therefore forms the focus for this analysis.4.3.Identification and design of the criteriaThe primary objectives of HS2,design constraints and expect-ations of the high speed trains have been studied to design the most definitive criteria for this analysis.From the primary motivations for HS2(see Section2.4)it was clear the trains of HS2must meet certain desired criteria yet,the most important and foremost being:Operate at speeds of200(320km/h)—225mph(360kpmh) with capability of operating at250mph(400km/h)(HS2Ltd., 2012).This is responsible for the time savings predicted and provides the foundation for the economic case.Without such substantial time savings created by the speed of operation of high speed trains for HS2,the case for its construction would be heavily undermined (Aizlewood and Wellings,2011);“55per cent of the benefits of HS2”are due to the time saved(Kersley and Theiss,2013,p.7). Therefore,this was an issue of high priority,hence why the operation/experience of very high speed trains(!320km/h)was a criterion which can demonstrate the suitability of a manufacturer. This was measured in terms of experience,the more the better.The reliability of the trains is of high importance.Design constraints of trains running14times per hour for Phase One and18times per hour for Phase Two(HS2Ltd.,2012)are not minor requirements, therefore,reliability of the trains is very important and a method to predict future reliability is by measuring experience.Experience in the high speed sector,measured in terms of time and countries of application,demonstrates extensive knowledge and application of high speed which is an important factor in predicting the reliability of the potential HS2trains produced.Another element of experience is application,of not just high speed,but high speed on a large UK infrastructure project.An obvious choice was HS1;this provided a basis to how the manufacturer has performed implementing high speed on new UK infrastructure in a large new infrastructure project.Since the primary objectives of HS2include to‘Catalyse economic growth and job creation in Britain’(Kersley and Theiss,2013).It was important that this was taken into account.A practical measure was‘UK Factory Location’since this demonstrated the potential job creation in the UK from the manufacture and maintenance of the future rolling stock.Yet,in addition,this also demonstrated potential reliability.More maintenance factories in the UK,such as TrainCare facilities,enable any breakdowns to be dealt with more easily and the actual prevention of breakdowns in the future.The capability to provide and service the trains produced greatly relies on the location of UK factories,the more the better.The actual company behind the manufacture of the trains was also studied and compared due to the size and duration of the HS2project.It must be clear the manufacturer,to be invested in,has the size and strength to be a safe investment.This means their future must appear to be strong and not unpredictable.A measure of this was the current size and strength of the company measured by its size in revenue and number of employees.Profits were also studiedto Fig.3.The hierarchy for this investigation.436S.Dhir et al./Case Studies on Transport Policy3(2015)431–448。

Equivalence Tests for Paired Means (Simulation)

Equivalence Tests for Paired Means (Simulation)

495-1
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PASS Sample Size Software

Equivalence Tests for Paired Means (Simulation)
3. Generate a random sample Y1 , Y2 , , Yn from the distribution specified by the null hypothesis. Calculate the test statistic from the simulated data and determine if the null hypothesis is accepted or rejected. These samples are used to calculate the significance-level of the test. In the case of paired data, the individual values are simulated as the difference between two other random variables. These samples are constructed so that they exhibit a certain amount of correlation. 4. Repeat steps 2 and 3 several thousand times, tabulating the number of times the simulated data leads to a rejection of the null hypothesis. The power is the proportion of simulation samples in step 2 that lead to rejection. The significance-level is the proportion of simulated samples in step 3 that lead to rejection.

LCCI International Qualifications 资料说明书

LCCI International Qualifications 资料说明书

For further informationTel. +44 (0) 8707 202909**************************LCCI International QualificationsSyllabusEffective from: 1 October 2011Level 2 Award in ComputerisedBook-keeping SkillsINTRODUCTIONEducation Development International (EDI) is a leading international awarding body that was formed through the merger of the London Chamber of Commerce and Industry Examinations Board (LCCI) and a leading online assessment provider GOAL. EDI now delivers LCCI International qualifications (LCCI IQ) through a network of over 5000 registered centres in more than 120 countries worldwide. Our range of business-related qualifications is trusted and valued by employers worldwide and recognised by universities and professional bodies. Level 2 Award in Computerised Book-keeping SkillsAimsThe aim of the qualification is to develop candidates’ competence in using computerised accounting software to produce accurate, professional and well presented accounting information employing an appropriate range of accounting procedures. It particularly aims to develop skills in:▪setting up yearly company data and making journal and ledger entries▪processing routine payments and receipts▪producing appropriate accounting reports for management purposes.Target Audience and Candidate ProgressionThis qualification is suitable for people who work or intend to work in an accounting role which requires the computerised processing of daily book-keeping and accounting transactions. Candidates for this qualification must have book-keeping and accounting knowledge and skills equivalent to the LCCI Level 2 Book-keeping and Accounts qualification.This qualification can be taken as a standalone qualification or as part of the Level 3 Specialised Diploma in Managerial Accounting, Level 3 Specialised Diploma in Accounting and Finance, Level 3 Specialised Diploma in Cost Accounting, Level 3 Specialised Diploma in Business Management and Accounting, Level 2 Diploma in Computerised Accounting or the Level 2 Diploma in Book-Keeping and Accounts.English requirementsThere are no formal entry requirements for this qualification. However, candidates should have a minimum level of English equivalent to the LCCI Level 2 English for Business or JETSET 4 - (Council of Europe B1/Threshold) to meet the communication requirements for this qualification.Structure of the qualificationThe Level 2 Award in Computerised Book-keeping Skills consists of the following two units:1 Setting up accounting software to manage accounting information2 Process routine payments and receipts using a computerised systemGuided Learning HoursEDI recommends that 45 - 60 Guided Learning Hours (GLHs) provide a suitable course duration for an ‘average’ candidate at this level. This figure includes direct contact hours as well as other time when candidates’ work is being supervised by teachers. Ultimately, however, it is the responsibility of training centres to determine the appropriate course duration based on their candidates’ ability and level of existing knowledge. EDI’s experience indicates that the number of GLHs can vary significantly from one training centre to another. ASSESSMENTAssessment ObjectivesThe examination will assess the candidate’s ability to use computerised accounting software to:▪enter or restore company data at the start of the financial year and create and maintain accounts▪enter transactions into the Sales, Purchases and Nominal Ledgers▪process entries in the General and Salary Journals▪correct transaction errors▪produce Sales and Purchase Orders and Credit Notes▪produce management reports relating to customers and suppliers▪produce routine reports using relevant selection criteria and parameters.Assessment FormatThe qualification is assessed by an examination in the form of a practical case study, in which it is assumed that the candidate is working in an accounting department using a computerised accounting system. The case study requires candidates to process a variety of business transactions using commercially available computerised accounting software. The time allowed for the examination is 2 ½ hours. The examination is set and marked by EDI.The examination does not require the use of any specific computerised accounting software. As a guide, the examination is compatible with the following computerised accounting software: Sage 50, MYOB, Microsoft Accounting and QuickBooks. This list is not inclusive and other computerised accounting software may be used. However, centres must ensure that the software they are using will enable candidates to successfully complete the examination before registering candidates.The examination is available on demand.All examinations must be carried out in accordance with the Examination Guide for LCCI Centres and the Examination Regulations, which is sent to centres with the exam papers. Assessment RequirementsIn order to deliver the assessment, centres must meet the following requirements:▪Provide an appropriate room for the assessment where candidates will have individual access to a computer with suitable computerised accounting software for the duration of the examination. The computerised accounting software must enable candidates toachieve all of the assessment objectives and complete the assessment successfully.EDI will not make allowances for software that does not allow candidates to complete the assessment as specified.▪Ensure that candidates can save files in PDF format. Files must be saved in a secure environment and should be backed up.▪Ensure that candidates cannot view each others’ work electronically. Therefore, if work is saved onto a network drive, the drive needs to be set up so that each candidate has a section of the drive which only they and the tutor uploading the candidates’ work can access. Centres are advised to set up password controlled access to the network area.We recommend that each candidate saves their work into a folder set up with their name and Candidate Number. This will assist centres when uploading work to the InternetPortal.▪Be able to upload candidates’ work to the EDI Internet Portal for marking, at the end of the examination. Therefore, centres must have access to the Internet. Candidates’ work must be uploaded within 48 hours of the examination. EDI recommends thatcentres maintain an electronic copy of candidates’ work on their systems until the results have been issued. Completed tasks should be uploaded to the Internet Portal using the log-in details provided by EDI (please contact Customer Support, your Regional Office or Co-ordinating Authority to receive these details). Information on how to access theInternet Portal and complete guidance on uploading is given in the Support Pack, which is available on the qualification page of our website.Coverage of Units in the ExaminationThe practical case study will cover both units and all learning outcomes within the syllabus. All assessment criteria will be covered over two versions of the assessment. No weighting is given to specific assessment criteria.Answer FormatCandidates are required to carry out all assessment tasks accurately and in accordance with book-keeping practice in a computerised environment. Candidates must generate and save the reports and documents specified in the assessment in PDF format in a folder with their name and candidate number. No printing of reports or documents is required.Mark AllocationCandidates’ performance is assessed by checking the generated reports and documents for errors. Grades are determined by the types and number of errors occurring in candidates’ work.Errors are categorised as follows:Immediate Fail:▪failure to generate and produce the Trial Balance or either the Audit Trail or the complete Nominal Ledger▪failure to generate and produce more than one of the other requested reports. Processing errors:A ‘processing error’ is defined as ‘an error that renders the accounts incorrect’. Examples of processing errors include, but are not limited to, the following:▪an incorrect amount processed▪failure to process a transaction or duplicate of a transaction▪ a transaction processed to an incorrect account▪incorrect month or year in date▪failure to generate documents, i.e. Sales Orders, Purchase Orders, Invoices, Credit Notes, Remittance Advice and Statements▪failure to carry out the Bank Reconciliation process.Minor errors:A ‘minor error’ is defined as ‘an error that affects the quality of information rather than the accuracy of the accounts.’ Examples of minor errors include, but are not limited to, the following:▪typographical errors on names, addresses or reference numbers▪incorrect date but within same month▪omission of reference numbers or other data.Error tolerances are specified below.CertificationSuccessful candidates will be awarded a Pass, Merit or Distinction in the Level 2 Award in Computerised Book-keeping Skills based on the following error tolerances:Centres will receive certificates within a maximum of 6 weeks of candidates’ work being uploaded to the portal.Recommended Reading List and Support MaterialsReading ListTitle Authors(s) Publisher ISBN CodeSage 50 Accounting 2010 in Easy Steps Gillian Gilert In Easy StepsLimited978-1840784015Sage 50 Accounts for Jane Kelly John Wiley 978-0470715581 Dummies (2010) & SonsPassport to Success: EDI Hodder Education 978-1-862471112 Level 2 Book-keepingand AccountsSupport MaterialA sample assessment and worked answers are available on the qualification page of the website. Guidance for Candidates and a Support Pack for tutors are available on the qualification page of the website.The following training material is recommended for centres using Sage 50:TUTORIAL (T123b)Computerised Accounts c/w 1 copy Tutor’s Printouts(for use with Sage 50 2010 and Sage Instant Accounts v16)Holmes Training Services LtdTelephone: + 44 (0) 7768 342804Email: ******************************.ukWebsite: The following training material is recommended for centres using MYOB:MYOB Computerised Accounting Study Guide (Second Edition) Level 2 and Level 3ISBN 978-983-41685-2-0Note: A Third Edition of the study guide will be available early in 2012.How to offer this qualificationTo offer this qualification you must be an LCCI IQ registered examination centre. To gain centre approval, please contact Customer Support on 08700 818008 between the hours of 0830 and 1700 (GMT) Monday to Friday or by email on ************************. Alternatively you may contact your Regional LCCI Office or Co-ordinating Authority.Level 2 Setting Up Accounting Software to Manage Accounting Information*or the relevant national purchase tax, e.g. GST, Consumption Tax, Sales Tax, State Sales Tax, PST, SUT*or the relevant national purchase tax, e.g. GST, Consumption Tax, Sales Tax, State SalesLevel 2 Process Routine Payments and Receipts using aComputerised System*or the relevant national purchase tax, e.g. GST, Consumption Tax, Sales Tax, State Sales Tax, PST, SUT**or the relevant national tax collection authorityEDIInternational HouseSiskin Parkway EastMiddlemarch Business ParkCoventry CV3 4PEUKTel. +44 (0) 8707 202909Fax. +44 (0) 2476 516505**************************© Education Development International Plc 2010.All rights reserved. This publication in its entiretyis the copyright of Education DevelopmentInternational Plc. Reproduction either in whole or inpart is forbidden without the written permission。

市场调查方法(英文版)第十四章

市场调查方法(英文版)第十四章
statistical methods to use for analysis
© 2007 Thomson/South-Western. All rights reserved.
14–2
The Nature of Descriptive Analysis
• Descriptive Analysis
➢ Can increase the effectiveness of a well-designed presentation
➢ Can create strong visual impressions
© 2007 Thomson/South-Western. All rights reserved.
© 2007 Thomson/South-Western. All rights reserved.
14–7
EXHIBIT 14.3 Possible Cross-Tabulations of One Question
© 2007 Thomson/South-Western. All rights reserved.
• Histogram
➢ A graphical way of showing a frequency distribution in which the height of a bar corresponds to the observed frequency of the category.
© 2007 Thomson/South-Western. All rights reserved.
2. Create and interpret simple tabulation and crosstabulation tables

营销管理科特勒第中国第制定价格战略和流程

营销管理科特勒第中国第制定价格战略和流程

12-1
本章内容
• 理解定价 • 制定价格:6个步骤 • 修订价格 • 启动及应对价格变更
• 宜家在中国
• 创新营销: eBay
• 营销在中国: 如家酒店
• 创新营销: 瑞安航空
• 营销视野: 如何阻击低成本竞争者
• 本章案例:格兰仕的低价竞争策略
Copyright © 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall
12-10
差别定价
• 顾客细分定价 • 产品样式定价 • 形象定价 • 渠道定价 • 地点定价 • 时间定价 • 收益定价
Copyright © 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall
12-11
提高价格
延迟报价 浮动条款 产品拆分 减少折扣
Copyright © 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall
12-9
促销定价策略
• 特价吸引品 • 特殊事件定价 • 现金回扣 • 低息融资 • 延长付款期 • 担保和维修合同 • 心理折扣
Copyright © 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall
12-6
第五步:选择定价方法
高价格
在此价格不可能有需求
最高限价 顾客对产品独 特属性的评价
参考点
竞争者价格和 替代价格 成本 最低限价
• 成本加成定价法 • 目标收益定价法 • 感知价值定价法 • 价值定价法 • 现行水准定价法 • 投标定价法

Crafter's Choice

Crafter's Choice

Product: Crafter’s Choice™ Market Peach* Fragrance Oil7820 E Pleasant Valley RdIndependence, OH 44131(800) 359-0944 Page 1 of 3 2023-05-01 IndiMade Brands, LLC certifies that the above-mentioned fragrance product is in compliance with the standards of the International Fragrance Association [IFRA 50th Amendment (June '21)], provided the fragrance is used in the following application(s) at the following maximum concentration level(s):Product: Crafter’s Choice™ Market Peach* Fragrance Oil7820 E Pleasant Valley RdIndependence, OH 44131(800) 359-0944 Page 2 of 3 2023-05-01Product: Crafter’s Choice™ Market Peach* Fragrance Oil7820 E Pleasant Valley RdIndependence, OH 44131(800) 359-0944 Page 3 of 3 2023-05-01For all other applications, or use at higher concentration levels, a new evaluation will be required.The IFRA standards regarding use restrictions are based on safety assessments by the Research Institute for Fragrance Materials (RIFM) Expert Panel (REXPAN) and are enforced by the IFRA Scientific Committee. Evaluation of individual fragrance materials is made according to the safety standards contained in the relevant section of the IFRA Code of Practice.It is the ultimate responsibility of the customer to ensure the safety of the final product containing this fragrance, by further testing, if necessary.The above-mentioned fragrance product contains ingredients which are NOT considered GRAS, Generally Regarded as Safe as a Flavor Ingredient.。

如何理性选择英语作文

如何理性选择英语作文

如何理性选择英语作文Choosing a topic for an English composition requires a rational approach to ensure a well-structured and engaging essay. Here are some steps you can follow:1. Identify Your Interests: Start by considering topics that genuinely interest you. Writing about something you're passionate about can make the process more enjoyable and result in a more compelling essay.2. Research Potential Topics: Once you have a few topics in mind, conduct preliminary research to gauge the availability of credible sources and relevant information. This step will help you ensure that you have enough material to support your arguments or ideas.3. Consider the Audience: Think about who will be reading your essay. Tailor your topic to appeal to your audience's interests and knowledge level. For example, if you're writing for a general audience, choose a topic thatis accessible and relevant to a broad range of readers.4. Narrow Down Your Options: Evaluate the feasibility and depth of each topic. Consider whether you can explorethe subject thoroughly within the scope of your essay. Narrow down your options to those that offer ample opportunity for analysis and discussion.5. Brainstorm Ideas: Take some time to brainstorm ideas for each potential topic. Consider different angles, perspectives, and arguments you could explore. Choose the topic that offers the most potential for engaging content and meaningful insights.6. Outline Your Essay: Once you've selected a topic, create a rough outline of your essay. This will help you organize your thoughts and ensure that your essay flows logically from introduction to conclusion.7. Evaluate Your Decision: Before finalizing your topic, take a step back and evaluate your decision. Consider whether the chosen topic aligns with the assignmentrequirements and your objectives as a writer. If necessary, make adjustments or reconsider your options.By following these steps, you can make a rational and informed choice when selecting a topic for your English composition. Remember to choose a topic that interests you, appeals to your audience, and offers ample opportunity for exploration and analysis. With careful consideration and planning, you can create a compelling and well-written essay.。

choices方法

choices方法

choices方法Choices MethodThe Choices method is a problem-solving technique that can be used to help address a wide variety of real-world problems. It encourages us to consider all potential solutions to our problems, even those that may seem far-fetched or impossible at first glance. This is especially useful when dealing with complex or nuanced issues.The Choices method begins with a problem statement. This statement should be simple, clear, and concise, so that everyone involved can understand it. Once the statement has been established, the group should then brainstorm a list of potential solutions to the problem. These should be as diverse as possible and should include both realistic and creative possibilities. After the list is complete, participants should discuss and weigh the pros and cons of each option. This can be done by asking questions such as “What are the potential risks associated with this solution?” or “What resources or support would we need to successfully implement this solution?”Ultimately, the group should decide which solution is the best fit for the situation and take tangible steps to begin moving towards success.The Choices method is a powerful tool that can be used to tackle a wide variety of difficult problems. By encouraging creative thinking and considering all potential solutions, it can help us find the best path forward for any situation.。

阿伦斯 审计学:一种整合的方法 课后习题答案ch02

阿伦斯 审计学:一种整合的方法 课后习题答案ch02

Chapter 2The CPA ProfessionReview Questions2-1The four major services that CPAs provide are:1. Assurance services Assurance services are independentprofessional services that improve the quality of information fordecision makers. Assurance services include attestation services,which are any services in which the CPA firm issues a report thatexpresses a conclusion about the reliability of an assertion that isthe responsibility of another party. The four categories of attestationservices are audits of historical financial statements, attestation onthe effectiveness of internal control over financial reporting, reviewsof historical financial statements, and other attestation services.2. Accounting and bookkeeping services Accounting services involvepreparing the client's financial statements from the client's records.Bookkeeping services include the preparation of the client'sjournals and ledgers as well as financial statements.3. Tax services Tax services include preparation of corporate,individual, and estate returns as well as tax planning assistance.4. Management consulting services These services range fromsuggestions to improve the client's accounting system to computerinstallations.2-2The major characteristics of CPA firms that permit them to fulfill their social function competently and independently are:1. Organizational form A CPA firm exists as a separate entity to avoidan employer-employee relationship with its clients. The CPA firmemploys a professional staff of sufficient size to prevent one clientfrom constituting a significant portion of total income and therebyendangering the firm's independence.2. Conduct A CPA firm employs a professional staff of sufficient sizeto provide a broad range of expertise, continuing education, andpromotion of a professional independent attitude and competence.3. Peer review This practice evaluates the performance of CPA firmsin an attempt to keep competence high.2-3The Public Company Accounting Oversight Board provides oversight for auditors of public companies, including establishing auditing and quality control standards for public company audits, and performing inspections of the quality controls at audit firms performing those audits.2-4The purpose of the Securities and Exchange Commission is to assist in providing investors with reliable information upon which to make investment decisions. Since most reasonably large CPA firms have clients that must file reports with the SEC each year (all companies filing registration statements under the securities acts of l933 and l934 must file audited financial statements and other reports with the SEC at least once each year), the profession is highly involved with the SEC requirements.The SEC has considerable influence in setting generally accepted accounting principles and disclosure requirements for financial statements because of its authority for specifying reporting requirements considered necessary for fair disclosure to investors. In addition, the SEC has power to establish rules for any CPA associated with audited financial statements submitted to the Commission.2-5The AICPA is the organization that sets professional requirements for CPAs. The AICPA also conducts research and publishes materials on many different subjects related to accounting, auditing, management advisory services, and taxes. The organization also prepares and grades the CPA examinations, provides continuing education to its members, and develops specialty designations to help market and assure the quality of services in specialized practice areas.2-6Statement on Standards for Attestation Engagements was first issued in 1986 and its purposes were to provide a framework for attest engagements and to develop standards for those engagements. In 2001, the Auditing Standards Board issued SSAE 10 in response to the need for more detailed standards for specific types of attestation services. SSAE 10 supercedes the previously issued standards and its main purpose is to improve the usefulness of the attestation standards and provide greater flexibility to practitioners in providing assurance services.2-7 The PCAOB now has responsibility for establishing auditing standards for public companies, while the Auditing Standards Board (ASB) of the AICPA establishes auditing standards for private companies. The ASB previously had responsibility for establishing auditing standards for both public and private companies. Existing auditing standards were adopted by the PCAOB as interim auditing standards for public company audits.2-8 Generally accepted auditing standards are ten general guidelines to aid auditors in fulfilling their professional responsibilities. These guidelines include three general standards concerned with competence, independence, and due professional care; three standards of field work including planning and supervision, study and evaluation of internal control, and the gathering of competent evidential matter; and four standards of reporting which require a statement as to presentation in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles, inconsistency observed in the current period in relation to the preceding period, adequate disclosure, and the expression of an opinion as to the fairness of the presentation of the financial statements.2-8 (continued)Generally accepted accounting principles are specific rules for accounting for transactions occurring in a business enterprise. Examples may be any of the opinions of the FASB.2-9Auditors can obtain adequate technical training and proficiency through formal education in auditing and accounting, adequate practical experience, and continuing professional education. Auditors can demonstrate their proficiency by becoming licensed to practice as CPAs, which requires successful completion of the Uniform CPA Examination. The specific requirements for licensure vary from state to state.2-10For the most part, generally accepted auditing standards are general rather than specific. Many practitioners along with critics of the profession believe the standards should provide more clearly defined guidelines as an aid in determining the extent of evidence to be accumulated. This would eliminate some of the difficult audit decisions and provide a source of defense if the CPA is charged with conducting an inadequate audit. On the other hand, highly specific requirements could turn auditing into mechanical evidence gathering, void of professional judgment. From the point of view of both the profession and the users of auditing services, there is probably a greater harm from defining authoritative guidelines too specifically than too broadly.2-11International Standards on Auditing (ISAs) are issued by the International Auditing Practices Committee (IAPC) of the International Federation of Accountants (IFAC). ISAs are designed to improve the uniformity of auditing practices and related services throughout the world by issuing pronouncements on a variety of audit and attest functions and promoting their acceptance worldwide. A CPA who conducts an audit in accordance with GAAS may not comply with ISAs because there may be additional ISA requirements that extend beyond GAAS requirements.2-12 Quality controls are the procedures used by a CPA firm that help it meet its professional responsibilities to clients. Quality controls are therefore established for the entire CPA firm as opposed to individual engagements.2-13The element of quality control is personnel management. The purpose of the requirement is to help assure CPA firms that all new personnel should be qualified to perform their work competently. A CPA firm must have competent employees conducting the audits if quality audits are to occur.2-14 A peer review is a review, by CPAs, of a CPA firm's compliance with its quality control system. A mandatory peer review means that such a review is required periodically. AICPA member firms are required to have a peer review every three years. Registered firms with the PCAOB are subject to quality inspections. These are different than peer reviews because they are performed by independent inspection teams rather than another CPA firm.2-14 (continued)Peer reviews can be beneficial to the profession and to individual firms. By helping firms meet quality control standards, the profession gains if reviews result in practitioners doing higher quality audits. A firm having a peer review can also gain if it improves the firm's practices and thereby enhances its reputation and effectiveness, and reduces the likelihood of lawsuits. Of course peer reviews are costly. There is always a trade off between cost and benefits. A CPA firm also gives up some independence of activities when it is reviewed by another CPA firm.2-15The two divisions of practice that a CPA firm may belong to are the SEC Practice Section (renamed the Center for Public Company Audit Firms)and the Private Companies Practice Section. A firm may belong to one section, both sections, or neither. Many of the self-regulatory activities of the SECPS have been taken over by the PCAOB.Proponents of this division believe that this will improve the quality of practice by CPA firms and that it will improve self-regulation. Critics state that it establishes two classes of CPAs and implies a lower performance quality for firms that are not members of the SEC Practice Section.Multiple Choice Questions From CPA Examinations2-16 a. (1) b. (2) c. (3) d. (3)2-17 a. (2) b. (2) c. (3)Discussion Questions And Problems2-18a.The comments summarize the beliefs of many practitioners about theSarbanes–Oxley Act and the PCAOB. The arguments against the Act can be summarized as four arguments:1. Costs of complying with the Act are excessively high, especially therequirement to report on internal control over financial reporting,and will discourage companies from becoming public companies.2. Relative cost for local audit firms is excessively high.3. Additional oversight is not needed because sufficient qualitycontrols have already been implemented by most audit firms.4. Three other things already provide assurance of adequate quality:a competitive economic environment, legal liability, and auditingstandards.To support these comments, it can be argued that the profession has generally functioned well with relatively little controversy and criticism.2-18 (continued)The arguments against these comments are primarily as follows:1. Reporting on the effectiveness of internal control over financialreporting will provide benefits in improved controls, resulting inhigher quality financial reporting and reduced losses from fraud.2. The increased confidence in financial reporting will increase accessto capital and lower the cost of capital by reducing information risk.3. Changes in the scope of CPA practices and other threats to auditquality required government regulation.4. Regulation of public company audits will not affect most audit firmsthat do not have public company audit clients.b. There is no correct answer to this question. Different people reachdifferent conclusions, depending on the weights put on the various arguments. Time is needed to effectively assess both the costs and benefits of the Act.2-19 a. Engagement performanceb. Personnel managementc. Engagement performanced. Engagement performancee. Independence, integrity, and objectivityf. Monitoringg. Acceptance and continuation of clients and engagementsh. Personnel managementi. Personnel management2-20 a. Rossi and Montgomery's primary ethical consideration is their professional competence to perform all of the audit work for filingwith the SEC. In addition, if Rossi and Montgomery have performedbookkeeping services or certain consulting services for MobileHome, they will not be independent under PCAOB and SECindependence requirements. The firm must also be a registeredfirm with the PCAOB.b. The filing with the SEC, in addition to normal audited financialstatements, will require completion and registration with the SEC ofForm S-1 which includes an audited summary of operations for thelast five fiscal years as well as many additional schedules anddescriptions of the business. Each quarter subsequent to the filing,Form 10-Q must be filed; and within 90 days of the end of eachfiscal year Form 10-K must be filed with the SEC.In addition, Form 8-K must be filed whenever significant events have occurred which are of interest to public investors.These forms must be filed in conformity with Regulation S-X, whichrequires considerable disclosures in addition to those normallyrequired in audited financial statements.2-212-22 a. CPAs can provide the following information and Web links on their firm Web sites:Office locations or affiliationsLines of service the firm provides (audit, tax, management consulting, etc.)Industry specialization information for the firmOnline software tools and databasesLatest tax law developments applicable to clientsCalculators for retirement account decisionsOnline privacy management softwareb. CPA firms invest their resources to develop sophisticated Web siteslargely because of a desire to maintain a client-service approach.Increased competition motivates CPA firms to improve thetraditional paths of providing information to their clients. A CPA firmcan reach clients more quickly and efficiently with vital informationvia the firm’s Web site than through more traditional forms ofcommunication, such as a monthly or quarterly newsletter. Also, asmore clients become sophisticated in the area of technology, theyexpect their CPA firms to do the same by providing a useful Website that has links to other helpful tools and resources.c. The Internet is a useful tool for a CPA firm’s accounting andauditing practice in many ways. A firm’s Web site can be used tomarket the firm’s accounting and auditing practi ce. The Internetalso connects the firm’s global professional staff, making it easierfor staff from all over the world to provide client service on a timelybasis without having to be physically present at the client’s location.CPAs also use online resources and databases to remain currenton emerging business and standards-setting issues. Examplesinclude Standard and Poor’s Net Advantage Database andGoldman Sachs Research Database. These two databases provideextensive industry-specific information and coverage of companiesthat CPAs use on a subscription basis to stay current on industrydevelopments and to obtain industry data useful for auditing andconsulting.Internet Problem Solution: CPA Vision Project2-1 The CPA Vision Project [www.cpavi ] is all about helping the “CPA profession stay on top of the change curve.” With input from CPAs across the nation, the CPA Vision process created a comprehensive and integrated vision of the profession’s future.1. What characteristics and professional services come to mind whenyou hear the term CPA? What is your impression of the public’sstereotype of CPAs?Answer: Student responses will vary.2-1 (continued)2. Fill in the missing words in the following Vision Statement:Answer:“CPAs are the trusted professionals who enable peopleand organizations to shape their future. Combining insight withintegrity, CPAs deliver value by …Communicating the total picture with clarity and objectivity,Translating complex information into critical knowledge,Anticipating and creating opportunities, andDesigning pathways that transform vision into reality.3. Briefly describe the eight forces that will impact the profession.Answer: The eight forces are:1. Non-CPA Competitors - The number of new, non-CPAcompetitors, not bound by the profession's code of standardsand ethics is increasing at an alarming rate.2. Decline of new CPAs - The number of students and youngpeople electing to join the CPA profession has dramaticallydeclined.3. Technology Displacement - Many of the traditional, essentialskills of CPAs are being replaced by new technologies thatare increasing in number and being rapidly developed, oftenfrom unexpected sources.4. Borderless World- As the world becomes borderless, themarketplace is demanding more complex, real-time adviceand services, presenting unlimited opportunities for CPAs toexpand their skills, competencies, and services.5. Leadership Imperative - Corporations are conductingbusiness in a world of commerce that is global, technological,instantaneous, and increasingly virtual. The leadership theyrequire from both internal and external advisors requires newinsights, new skills, and extraordinary agility.6. Technological Advances - Technology will continue tochallenge and reshape our lifestyles, work patterns,educational experiences, and communication styles andtechniques. Technology will rewrite the "rules of business,"leaving those who will not harness it and effectively integrateit far behind.7. Market Value Shifts- The perceived value of some of theprofession's cornerstone services-accounting, auditing, andtax preparation-is declining in the marketplace.8. Pressure to Transform Finance from Scorekeeper toBusiness Partner - The CPA in business is being challengedto deliver value to the organization and help create asustainable competitive advantage.2-1 (continued)4. The CPA Vision Project suggests that “the increasing complexitiesof the global environment and the commodity characteristics oftraditional services mandate that the CPA profession migrate up theeconomic value chain.” What is meant by “moving up the economicvalue chain,” and how are CPAs going to accomplish this? (Hint:See the “Final Report.”)Answer: Moving up the economic value chain means moving fromproviding low value products and services to providing higher valueproducts and services (i.e., services that will permit the professionto thrive in a knowledge-based, global economy). The higher on theeconomic value chain, the higher the revenue. “The mo re a productor service is refined and defined, the less market value it will have.For example: tax preparation services have been commoditizedand automated to the point that they can largely be preparedelectronically. Tax form preparation is a Platform 1 service - afoundation service. The higher economic value of this informationlies in understanding what the foundation service implies-the“where do we go from here” and the “so whats” of business andfinance. Higher Platform services, such as estate and financialplanning are where higher economic benefits exist for the future ofthe profession. Higher Platform services are, and will increasinglybe, the most valued services and functions, and therefore willcommand higher fees and salaries. Traditional services are thefoundation from which CPAs can leverage to higher valueservices.” The report describes 7 platforms.Obviously to move up the value chain CPAs need to developexpertise for and market higher value services. For some this mayrepresen t “thinking out of the box.”(Note: Internet problems address current issues using Internet sources. Because Internet sites are subject to change, Internet problems and solutions are subject to change. Current information on Internet problems is available at /arens).2-11。

买衣服的英语作文

买衣服的英语作文

When it comes to writing an essay about buying clothes,there are several aspects you might want to consider to make your essay engaging and informative.Heres a detailed outline and some points to include in your essay:Title:The Art of Buying Clothes:A Personal JourneyIntroduction:Begin with a hook to grab the readers attention,such as a quote about fashion or a personal anecdote about a memorable shopping experience.Briefly introduce the topic and the purpose of the essay.Paragraph1:The Importance of ClothingDiscuss the role of clothing in society,including its function for protection,expression of identity,and social status.Mention how clothing can reflect cultural and personal values.Paragraph2:Personal Preferences and StyleDescribe your own style preferences and how they have evolved over time.Explain the factors that influence your choices,such as comfort,color preferences,and body type.Paragraph3:The Shopping ExperienceDetail the process of shopping for clothes,from browsing to trying on items. Discuss the importance of fit,quality,and price when making a purchase.Paragraph4:Online vs.InStore ShoppingCompare the advantages and disadvantages of shopping for clothes online versus in physical stores.Include points about convenience,variety,and the tactile experience of instore shopping.Paragraph5:Sustainable and Ethical FashionAddress the growing awareness of sustainable and ethical fashion practices.Discuss how you make choices that align with these values,such as buying from brands that prioritize fair labor practices and ecofriendly materials.Paragraph6:The Future of Clothing ShoppingSpeculate on the future trends in clothing shopping,such as virtual fitting rooms, personalized AI recommendations,and the rise of secondhand markets.Consider how technology might change the way we buy and wear clothes.Conclusion:Summarize the main points of your essay.End with a reflection on the personal significance of clothing and the joy of finding the perfect outfit.Word Bank:Wardrobe essentialsFashion trendsPersonal styleSustainable fashionEthical shoppingOnline retailersInstore experienceFit and comfortBudget considerationsCultural expressionRemember to use descriptive language and personal anecdotes to make your essay relatable and engaging.Additionally,ensure that your essay has a clear structure with smooth transitions between paragraphs.。

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Choice procedures in Pairwise Comparison Multiple-attribute Decision Making MethodsRaymond Bisdorff1and Marc Roubens21Department of Management and Informatics,University Center of Luxembourg,Bisdorff@cu.lu2Department of Mathematics,University of Liege,M.Roubens@ulg.ac.beAbstract.We consider extensions of some classical rational axioms in-troduced in conventional choice theory to valued preference relations.The concept of kernel is revisited using two ways:one proposes to de-termine kernels with a degree of qualification and the other presents afuzzy kernel where every element of the support belongs to the rationalchoice set with a membership degree.Links between the two approachesis emphasized.We exploit these results in Multiple-attribute DecisionAid to determine the good and bad choices.All the results are valid ifthe valued preference relations are evaluated on afinite ordinal scale.1IntroductionWe consider a pair wise comparison multiple-attribute decision making proce-dure that assigns to each ordered pair(x,y),x,y∈A(the set of alternatives)a global degree of preference R(x,y).R(x,y)represents the degree to which x is weakly preferred to y.We suppose that R(x,y)belongs to afinite set L:{c0,c1,...,c m,...,c2m} that constitutes a(2m+1)-element chain{c0,c1,...,c2m}.R(x,y)may be un-derstood as the level of credibility that“a is at least as good as b”.The set L is built using the values of R taking into consideration an antitone unary contradiction operator¬such that¬c i=c(2m−i)for i=0,...,2m.If R(x,y)is one of the elements of L,then automatically¬R(x,y)belongs to L.We call such a relation an L-valued binary relation.We denote L m:{c m+1,...,c2m}and L≺m:{c0,...,c m−1}.If R(x,y)∈L m,we say that the proposition“(x,y)∈R”is L-true.If however R(x,y)∈L≺m,we say that the proposition is L-false.If R(x,y)=c m, the median level(afix point of the negation operator)then the proposition “(x,y)∈R”is L-undetermined.If R(a,b)=c r and R(c,d)=c s,c r<c s,it means that the proposition“a is at least as good as b”is less credible than“c is at least as good as d”.In the classical case where R is a crisp binary relation(m=2,and R(x,y) is never rated c1;R(x,y)=c2=1is denoted xRy and R(x,y)=c0=0 corresponds to¬xRy,we define a digraph G(A,R)with vertex set A and arc family R.A choice in G(A,R)is a non empty set Y of A.50Raymond Bisdorffand Marc RoubensR can be represented by a Boolean matrix and the choice Y can be defined with the use of a subset characteristic row vector Y(.)= (...,Y(x),...,Y(y),...)wherefor all x∈A.Y(x)= 1if x∈Y0otherwise,The subset characteristic vector of the successors of the elements of the vertex set Y:{x∈A|∃y∈Y,yRx}is denoted Y◦R and is obtained using the Boolean composition(Y◦R)(x)=∨y=x(Y(y)∧R(y,x))(1)where∨and∧represent respectively“disjunction”and“conjunction”for the 2-element Boolean lattice B={0,1}.The choice Y should satisfy some of the following rationality axioms(¯Y represents the complement of Y in A):•Inaccessibility of Y(or GOCHA rule,cf.[5],[10])∀y∈Y,∀x∈¯Y,¬xRy¯Y◦R⊆¯Y,“the successors of¯Y are inside¯Y”.•Stability of Y(see[9],[11])∀y∈Y,∀x∈Y,¬yRxY◦R⊆¯Y,“the successors of Y are inside¯Y”.•Dominance of Y(or external stability,see[9],[11])∀x∈¯Y,∃y∈Y,yRx¯Y⊆Y◦R,“the successors of Y contain¯Y”.•Strong dominance of Y(or GETCHA rule,cf.[5],[10])∀y∈Y,∀x∈¯Y,yRx≡¬yR d x(R d is the dual relation,i.e.the transpose of the complement of R)ˆY◦R d⊆¯Y.The maximal set of all non-dominated alternatives(inaccessibility and sta-bility are satisfied)is called the core of Y and the internally and externally stable set corresponds to the kernel.The GETCHA set is such that the strong dominance rule applies.No specific property like acyclicity or antisymmetry will be assumed in the se-quel.The core guarantees a rather small choice but is often empty.The GETCHA set corresponds to a rather large set and,in this general framework,the kernel (see[5],[8])seems to be the best compromise.However its existence or unique-ness cannot be guaranteed..It has been mentioned in[5]that for random graphs –with probability.5–a kernel almost certainly exists and that in a Moon-Moser graph with n nodes the number of kernels is around3n/3.In order to illustrate all these concepts,we consider a small example.Choice procedures in Decision Making Methods51 Example1Consider the following example with8alternatives:A: {a,b,c,d,e,f,g,h}.The Boolean matrix R together with the outgoing and in-going scores S(+)and S(−)are presented in Table1.S(+)R a b c d e f g ha·11100003b1·1111117c11·110116d111·10116e0111·0115f01111·116g011111·16h0111100·4S(−)37776256Table1:Boolean matrix R and scoresCore(non dominated elements):empty set.Kernels(maximal stable and minimal dominant sets):{b},{a,f},{a,g}.Minimal GETCHA sets:{b},{a,e,f,g,h}.We may define generalizations of the previous crisp concepts in the valued case in two different ways:(i)Starting from the definition of a rational choice in terms of logical predicates,one might consider that every subset of A is a rational choice with a given qualification and determine those sets with a sufficient degree of qualification. (ii)One might also extend the algebraic definition of a rational choice.In that case,there is a need to define proper extensions of composition law◦and inclusion⊆.Solutions that correspond to this approach give a fuzzy rational set˜Y,each element of A belonging to A to a certain degree(membership function).It should be interesting to stress the correspondence between these two ap-proaches.The choice of the operators is closely related to the type of scale that is used to quantify the valued binary relation R,i.e.an ordinal scale.2Qualification of crisp kernels in the valued ordinal contextWe now denote G L=G L(A,R)a digraph with vertices set A and a valued arc family that corresponds to the L-valued binary relation R.This graph is often called outranking graph in the context of multi-attribute decision making.We define the level of stability qualification of subset Y of X as∆sta(Y)= c2m if Y is a singleton,miny=xminx=y{¬R(x,y)}otherwise52Raymond Bisdorffand Marc Roubensand the level of dominance qualification of Y as∆dom(Y)= c2m if Y=A,minx∈Ymaxy∈YR(y,x)otherwise.Y is considered to be an L-good choice,i.e L-stable and L-dominant,if ∆sta(Y)∈L m and∆dom(Y)∈L m.Its qualification corresponds toQ good(L)=min(∆sta(Y),∆dom(Y))∈L m.We denote C good(G L)the possibly empty set of L-good choices in G L.The determination of this set is an NP-complete problem even if,following a result of Kitainik[5],we do not have to enumerate the elements of the power set of A but only have to consider the kernels of the corresponding crisp strict median-level cut relation R m associated to R,i.e.(x,y)∈R m if R(x,y)∈L m.As the kernel in G(X,R m)is by definition a stable and dominant crisp subset of A,we consider the possibly empty set of kernels of G m=G(A,R m) which we denote C good(G m).Kitainik proved thatC good(G L)⊆C good(G m).The determination of crisp kernels has been extensively described in the literature(see,for example[9])and the definition of C good(G L)is reduced to the enumeration of the elements of C good(G m)and the calculation of their qualification.Example2We now consider the comparison of8cars(a,b,c,d,e,f,g)on the basis of maximum speed,volume,price and consumption.Data and aggregation procedure will not be presented here(for more details,see[2]).The related outranking relation is presented in Table2.R a b c d e f g ha1.75.70.620000b.761.90.82.82.82.82.80c.70.86111.46.80.91d.64.65.941.88.22.94.74e.33.57.93110.80.86f0.73.64.92.761.96.80g0.63.73.85.82.701.81h0.60.64.60.77001Table2:Outranking relation related to eight carsChoice procedures in Decision Making Methods53We will consider only the ordinal content of that outranking relation and we transpose the data on a L-scale with c0=0,c2m=1,m=27and c m=.5.The strict median-cut relation R m corresponds to data of Table1.The set C good(G m)corresponds to({b},{a,f},{a,g})with the following qualifications:Q good({b})=.76,Q good({a,f})=Q good({a,g})=.70.3Fuzzy kernelsA second approach to the problem of determining a good choice is to consider the valued extension of the Boolean system of equations(1).If˜Y(.)=(...,Y(x),Y(y),...),where˜Y(x)belongs to L for every x∈A is the characteristic vector of a fuzzy choice and indicates the credibility level of the assertion that“x is part of the choice˜Y”,we have to solve the following system of equations:(˜Y◦R)(x)=maxy=x[min(˜Y(y),R(y,x))]=¬˜Y(x),∀x,y∈A.(2)The set of solutions to the system of equations(2)is called˜Y dom(G L).In order to compare these fuzzy solutions to the solutions obtained in C good(G L),we define the crisp choiceK˜Y ⊂A x∈K˜Y if˜Y(x)∈L mx∈K˜Yotherwise(3)and we consider a partial order on the elements of˜Y dom(G L):˜Y is sharper than˜Y ,noted˜Y ˜Y,iff∀x∈A:either˜Y(x)≤˜Y (x)≤cm ,either c m≤˜Y (x)≤˜Y(x).The subset of the sharpest solutions in˜Y dom(G L)is called F dom(G L).Bisdorffand Roubens have proved that the set of crisp choices constructed from F dom(G L)using(3)and denoted K(F dom(G L))coincides with C dom(G L).Coming back to Example2,we obtain3sharpest solutions to equation(2)˜Y{b}=(.24,.76,.24,.24,.24,.24,.24,.24)˜Y{a,f}=(.70,.30,.30,.30,.30,.70,.30,.30)˜Y{a,g}=(.70,.30,.30,.30,.30,.30,.30,.70).In this particular case,we obtain only Q good and¬Q good as components of the˜Y’s but this is not true in general.4Good and bad choices in Multi-attribute decision makingIn the framework of decision making procedures,it is often interesting to deter-mine choice sets that correspond to bad choices.These bad choices should be ideally different from the good choices.To clarify this point,let usfirst consider the crisp Boolean case and define the rationality axiom of54Raymond Bisdorffand Marc Roubens•Absorbance of Y(see[10])∀x∈¯Y,∃y∈Y,xRy=yR t x¯Y⊆Y◦R t,“the predecessors of Y contain¯Y”.As the stability property can be rewritten as Y◦R t⊆¯Y,we immediately obtain the Boolean equation that determines the absorbent kernel(stable and absorbent choice):¯Y=Y◦R t.We notice that for some digraphs(dominant)kernels and absorbent kernels may coincide(consider a digraph G(A,R)with vertices A:{a,b,c,d}and four arcs(a,b),(b,c),(c,d),(d,a).{a,c}as well as{b,d}are dominant and absorbent kernels or good and bad choices).This last concept can be easily extended in the valued case.Consider the valued graph G L introduced in Section2.We define the level of absorbancequalification of Y as∆abs(Y)= c2m if Y=A,minx∈Ymaxy∈YR(x,y)otherwise.The qualification of Y being a bad choice corresponds toQ bad(Y)=min(∆sta(Y),∆abs(Y))>c m.If Q bad(Y)≤c m,Y is not considered to be a bad choice.A fuzzy absorbent kernel is a solution of equation(˜Y◦R t)(x)=maxy=xmin(˜Y(y),R t(y,x))=¬˜Y(x),∀x∈A.(4)The set of solutions of equations(4)denoted˜Y abs(G L)can be handled in the same way as done in Section3for˜Y dom(G L)and creates a link between these solutions(4)and subsets of Y being qualified as bad choices.Reconsidering Example2,we observe that{b},{c},{d},{a,e}and{a,h}are absorbent kernels in G(A,R m).Qualification can be easily obtained and we get Q bad({a,c})=.76,Q bad({a,h})=.74,Q bad({c})=.64,Q bad({d})=.60, Q bad({b})=.57.Wefinally decide to keep car b as the best solution noticing however that it is a bad choice.Going back to digraph G(A,R m),we see that b is at the same time dominating and dominated by all the other elements.Car b is indifferent to all the other cars which is not true for a,c,d,e,f,g,h,since indifference is not transitive in this example.References[1]Bisdorff,R.,Roubens,M.:On defining and computing fuzzy kernels from L-valuedsimple graphs.In:Da Ruan et al.(eds.):Intelligent Systems and Soft Computing for Nuclear science and Industry,FLINS’96Workshop.World Scientific Publish-ers,Singapore(1996)113-123Choice procedures in Decision Making Methods55 [2]Fodor,J.,Roubens,M.:Fuzzy Preference Modelling and Multi-criteria DecisionSupport.Kluwer Academic publishers,Dordrecht Boston London(1994)[3]Fodor,J.C.,Perny,P.,Roubens,M.:Decision Making and Optimization.In:Rus-pini,E.,Bonissone,P.,Pedrycz,W.(eds.):Handbook of Fuzzy Computation,In-stitute of Physics Publications and Oxford University Press,Bristol(1998)F.5.1: 1-14[4]Fodor,J.,Orlovski S.A.,Perny,P.,Roubens,M.:The use of fuzzy preferencemodels in multiple criteria:choice,ranking and sorting.In:Dubois,D.,Prade,H.(eds.):Handbooks and of Fuzzy Sets,Vol.5(Operations Research and Statistics), Kluwer Academic Publishers,Dordrecht Boston London(1998)69-101[5]Kitainik,L.:Fuzzy Decision Procedures with Binary Relations:towards an unifiedTheory.Kluwer Academic Publishers,Dordrecht Boston London(1993)[6]Marichal,J.-L.:Aggregation of interacting criteria by means of the discrete Cho-quet integral.In:Calvo,T.,Mayor,G.,Mesiar R.(eds.):Aggregation operators: new trends and applications.Series:Studies in Fuzziness and Soft Computing Vol.97,Physica-Verlag,Heidelberg(2002)224-244[7]Perny,P.,Roubens,M.:Fuzzy Relational Preference Modelling.In:Dubois,D,.and Prade,H.(eds.):Handbooks of Fuzzy Sets,Vol.5(Operations Research and Statistics).Kluwer Academic Publishers,Dordrecht Boston London(1998)3-30[8]Roy,B.:Alg`e bre moderne et th´e orie des graphes.Dunod,Paris(1969).[9]Schmidt,G.,Str¨o hlein,T.:Relations and Graphs;Discrete mathematics for Com-puter Scientists.Springer-Verlag,Berlin Heidelberg New York(1991)[10]Schwartz,T.:The logic of Collective Choice,Columbia Univer Press,New York(1986)[11]von Neumann,J.,Morgenstern,O.:Theory of Games and Economic Behaviour.Princeton University Press,New York(1953)。

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