云南省城镇居民消费结构研究

云南财经大学学生毕业论文（设计）

题目：云南省城镇居民消费结构研究

云南财经大学

本科毕业论文（设计）原创性及知识产权声明

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本毕业论文（设计）成果归云南财经大学所有。

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目录

本科毕业论文（设计）原创性及知识产权声明 ........................... I 目录 ............................................................. I I 摘要 ........................................................... I II

一、问题的提出 (1)

二、研究现状及存在的问题 (1)

三、模型简介 (3)

四、数据说明 (4)

五、实证分析 (4)

(一)云南省城镇居民收入与消费概况 (4)

（二）云南省城镇居民消费结构概况及数据 (6)

（三）云南省城镇居民家庭恩格尔系数 (7)

（四）基于ELES模型的边际消费倾向分析 (8)

（五）需求收入弹性分析 (9)

六、结论和建议 (11)

（一）努力提高城镇居民的收入水平，不断提升消费能力 (11)

（二）不断完善与深化社会保障制度 (11)

（三）优化消费结构，加快升级转型，培养消费新热点 (12)

（四）稳定消费品价格，促进消费增长 (12)

参考文献 (18)

致谢 ............................................ 错误!未定义书签。

摘要

消费是社会再生产的重要环节，在市场经济条件下，消费作为主要宏观经济变量，一直是经济学家关心的热点。本文从云南省城镇居民消费的资料入手，在对我国各地区城镇居民消费结构分析的理论和文献的基础上，结合最新宏观数据资料，采用定性分析与定量分析相结合的方法，对时序数据首先作基本的图、表描述分析，然后引入扩展线性支出系统（ELES）模型对云南省城镇居民的边际消费倾向、恩格尔系数和需求收入弹性方面进行了实证研究。

结果表明，云南省城镇居民现在已经解决了温饱问题,基本上达到小康水平。并且随着云南省城镇居民人均可支配收入的不断增加，人均总消费支出呈上升趋势，但在不同的消费类别上，人们的消费倾向呈现差异。交通、通讯类的消费需求比较旺盛。食品、衣着、居住类增长潜力较大。本文在此基础上给出了促进云南省城镇居民消费快速增长的相关政策建议: 努力提高城镇居民的收入水平，不断提升消费能力; 不断完善与深化社会保障制度; 优化消费结构，加快升级转型，培养消费新热点; 稳定消费品价格，促进消费增长。

关键词：消费结构边际消费倾向需求收入弹性恩格尔系数

Abstract

Consumption plays an important role in social reproduction. As a main macroeconomic variable, consumption has been an economists concerned issue under the condition of Market economy. On the basis of theories and documents about the structure analysis of urban residents’ consumption in our country, this paper begins from the data concerning the consumption of urban residents in Yunnan province combined with the latest macroeconomic data, and the method of combining qualitative and quantitative analysis has been used to drawing basic graphs and doing descriptive analysis for time series data, then this paper takes advantage of the Expanded Linear Systematic Model to do an empirical research in the aspects of urban residents’ marginal consumption propensity in Yunnan province, Engel coefficient and the income elasticity of demand.

The results of this paper indicate that the problem of food and clothing has now been solved in Yunnan province, and the urban residents have basically reached a comparatively well-off level. Furthermore, with the increasing of per capita income of Yunnan urban residents, the per capita consumption expenditure has showed an increasing tendency. However, there also exist differences in people’s propensity to consume because of various consumption categories. The consumption demands for transportation and communication are strong, while food, clothing and living have a great development potential. Under this circumstance, this paper gives some relevant policy recommendations on how to promote a rapid growth of urban residents’ consumption in Yunnan province, that is, making efforts to improve the income level of urban residents, improving consuming capacity and social security system, optimizing the structure of consumption, accelerating the upgrading and transformation, cultivating new consumption spots, and also stabilizing the prices for consumer commodities and promoting a rapid growth in consumption.

Key words consumption structure, marginal consumption propensity, the income elasticity of demand, Engel coefficient