China's energy price shocks on its tertiary industry energy efficiency： a vector-error-correc
高二英语经济趋势单选题50题
高二英语经济趋势单选题50题1. The GDP of a country is often considered as an important indicator of its economic _____.A. strengthB. weaknessC. problemD. solution答案：A。
解析：GDP（国内生产总值）通常被视为一个国家经济实力（strength）的重要指标。
选项B“weakness”（ 弱点）与GDP作为积极的经济衡量指标相悖；选项C“problem”（ 问题）不能准确描述GDP与经济的关系，GDP是一种衡量方式而不是问题本身；选项D“solution” 解决方案）也不符合GDP的性质，它不是一种解决方案。
2. Inflation means that the general level of prices for goods and services is _____.A. risingB. fallingC. stableD. disappearing答案：A。
解析：通货膨胀（Inflation）的定义就是商品和服务的总体价格水平在上升（rising）。
选项B“falling”（ 下降）是通货紧缩的情况；选项C“stable”（ 稳定）与通货膨胀概念不符；选项D“disappearing”消失）完全不符合价格水平与通货膨胀的关系。
3. High unemployment rate may lead to a decrease in _____.A. consumer spendingB. production capacityC. both A and BD. none of the above答案：C。
解析：高失业率意味着很多人没有工作也就没有收入，这会导致消费支出（consumer spending）减少，同时企业因为需求减少也会降低生产能力 production capacity），所以选项C正确。
大学英语六级改革适用(段落翻译)模拟试卷271(题后含答案及解析)
大学英语六级改革适用（段落翻译）模拟试卷271(题后含答案及解析)题型有： 4. TranslationPart ⅣTranslation1．受到中国经济内部动力(dynamics)和外来压力的共同影响，人民币近几年来不断升值(appreciate)。
内部影响主要有中国物价水平、通货膨胀状况、经济增长状况以及利率水平，外部影响主要来自发达国家施加的压力，尤其是日本和美国。
人民币升值会增加人民币的购买力，扩大国内消费者对进口产品的需求，还可以减轻进口能源和原料的成本负担。
但它会影响国内金融市场的稳定。
使出口产品的成本上升。
从而降低中国产品在国际市场上的竞争力。
正确答案：Influenced jointly by internal dynamics of Chinese economy and external pressures, RMB has appreciated constantly in recent years. The internal influences mainly include China’s price level, the situations of inflation and economic growth, as well as interest rate level, while the external influences mainly come from the pressures exerted by developed countries, Japan and America in particular. The appreciation of RMB will not only increase its purchasing power and expand domestic consumers’ demands for imported goods, but also alleviate the cost burden of imported energies and raw materials. However, it may affect the stability of the domestic financial market and raise the cost of exported products, which would reduce the competitive power of Chinese products in the global market.解析：1．第一句“人民币近几年来不断升值”，时态要采用现在完成时，表示已经发生并且还在持续。
英语国内经济英语50题
英语国内经济英语50题1. The ______ of this product has increased greatly in recent years.A. demandB. supplyC. priceD. quality答案：A。
本题考查经济词汇的含义。
选项A“demand”意为“需求”；选项B“supply”指“供应”；选项C“price”是“价格”；选项D“quality”表示“质量”。
近年来产品需求大幅增加，所以选A。
2. The government is trying to control the ______ rate.A. inflationB. interestC. exchangeD. growth答案：A。
“inflation”是“通货膨胀”；“interest”是“利息”；“exchange”是“兑换，交换”；“growth”是“增长”。
政府试图控制通货膨胀率，选A。
3. In the domestic economy, ______ plays a crucial role.A. industryB. agricultureC. serviceD. education答案：A。
“industry”是“工业”；“agriculture”是“农业”；“service”是“服务业”；“education”是“教育”。
在国内经济中，工业起着关键作用，故选A。
4. The ______ of a company can affect its stock price.A. profitB. lossC. debtD. revenue答案：D。
“profit”意思是“利润”；“loss”是“损失”；“debt”是“债务”；“revenue”指“收入”。
公司的收入会影响其股票价格，选D。
5. The domestic economy depends on ______ from various sectors.A. incomeB. outputC. investmentD. consumption答案：D。
高考英语最新时事新闻语法填空——中国最高经济规划者强调2023年的良好发展(含练习题)
高考英语专题复习：原创语法填空题（附详解与翻译）Chinese police gear up for safe, stable festivals中国警方为安全稳定的节日做好准备（12.29）BEIJING -- Chinese police have begun work 1、___(ensure) the upcoming New Year and Lunar New Year holidays are safe and stable.2、___ circular has been sent to police across the country to this end,3、___(accord) to the Ministry of Public Security.Police 4、____(require) to crack down on malicious wage arrears, with a focus 5、___ cases of default concerning rural migrant workers, according to the circular.They are also required to pay attention to economic and financial 6、__(risk), and defuse them in 7、____(cooperate) with relevant authorities.Efforts should be made to deter the momentum of violations and crimes, and crack down on activities hindering medical services during the holidays, per the circular.Efforts should also be made to ensure safe, unimpeded traffic during the holidays, and help guarantee the safe production, storage, transportation 8、___ sale of fireworks.In addition to the upcoming New Year holiday, China 9、___(celebrate) Lunar New Year, or the 10、____(tradition) Spring Festival, on Jan 22.答案：1、to ensure考察不定式2、a考察冠词3、according考察非谓语4、are required考察被动5、on考察focus on6、risks考察复数7、cooperation考察变名词8、and考察并列9、will celebrate考察一般将来时10、traditional考察变形容词译文：北京——中国警方已开始努力确保即将到来的新年和农历新年假期安全稳定。
中国能源消费英语作文
中国能源消费英语作文英文回答：China is the world's largest energy consumer,accounting for nearly one-quarter of global consumption. This is due to a combination of factors, including itslarge population, rapidly growing economy, and urbanization.China's energy consumption is dominated by coal, which accounts for about two-thirds of the total. This is because coal is a relatively cheap and abundant resource in China. However, coal is also a major source of air pollution, and China is under increasing pressure to reduce its coal consumption.In recent years, China has been investing heavily in renewable energy sources, such as solar and wind power. These sources are still relatively small, but they are growing rapidly. China is also investing in nuclear power, which is a relatively low-carbon source of energy.China's energy consumption is expected to continue to grow in the coming years, but the rate of growth is likelyto slow. This is because China is shifting to a moreservice-based economy, which is less energy-intensive than manufacturing. China is also implementing a number ofenergy efficiency measures, which are helping to reduce its energy consumption.中文回答：作为世界第一能源消耗大国，中国约占全球能耗的四分之一。
高二英语经济指数单选题50题
高二英语经济指数单选题50题1. The _____ measures the market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period.A. GDPB. CPIC. PPID. PMI答案：A。
解析：GDP（国内生产总值）是衡量一个国家在一定时期内生产的所有最终商品和服务的市场价值的指标，这是GDP的基本定义。
选项B，CPI 消费者物价指数）主要衡量消费者购买一篮子商品和服务的价格变化。
选项C，PPI（ 生产者物价指数）反映生产环节价格水平。
选项D，PMI（采购经理人指数）反映制造业或服务业的商业活动情况。
2. Which economic index is mainly used to reflect the inflation rate at the consumer level?A. GDPB. CPIC. PPID. PMI答案：B。
解析：CPI是主要用于反映消费者层面通货膨胀率的经济指数。
通货膨胀意味着物价的普遍上涨，CPI通过追踪一篮子消费者商品和服务的价格变化来衡量这种上涨程度。
选项A的GDP是关于生产的价值衡量。
选项C的PPI侧重于生产环节价格。
选项D 的PMI是关于商业活动的指数。
3. China's GDP growth rate has been stable in recent years. GDP stands for _____.A. Gross Domestic ProductB. General Domestic ProductC. Grand Domestic ProductD. Global Domestic Product答案：A。
解析：GDP的全称是Gross Domestic Product（国内生产总值）。
这是固定的经济术语表达。
能源价格波动的文献
Correlation between Chinese and international energy prices basedon a HPfilter and time difference analysis$Yongxiu He a,n,Bing Wang a,Jianhui Wang b,c,Wei Xiong a,Tian Xia a,da School of Economics and Management,North China Electric Power University,Zhu Xin Zhuang,Bei Nong Road No.2,Changping District,Beijing102206,Chinab Decision and Information Sciences Division,Argonne National Laboratory,9700S.Cass Avenue,Argonne,IL,USAc School of Economics and Management,Shanghai University of Electric Power,Ping Yang Road No.2103,Yangpu District,Shanghai,Chinad Gansu Electric Power Corporation,Xi Jing Dong Road No.628,Qilihe District,Lanzhou,ChinaH I G H L I G H T SThe Hodrick-Prescottfilter and time difference analysis are used to research the correlation among energy prices.Our studyfinds that the U.S.and British refined oil prices Granger cause the Chinese refined oil price.Both Chinese and the Australian coal prices play an important role in the international coal market.The Chinese terminal electric power and terminal natural gas prices are not highly correlated.The results are useful for guiding the design of more efficient energy pricing policies in China.a r t i c l e i n f oArticle history:Received9May2012Accepted16July2013Available online31August2013Keywords:Energy pricesHPfilterTime difference analysisa b s t r a c tTo establish a reasonable system and mechanism for Chinese energy prices,we use the Granger causalitytest,Hodrick–Prescott(HP)filter and time difference analysis to research the pricing relationshipbetween Chinese and international energy prices.Wefind that Chinese and international crude oil priceschanged synchronously while Chinese refined oil prices follow the changes of international oil priceswith the time difference being about1month to2months.Further,Australian coal prices Granger causesChinese coal prices,and there is a high correlation between them.The U.S.electricity price is influencedby the WTI crude oil price,the U.S.gasoline price and the HenryHub gas price.Due to the unreasonableprice-setting mechanism and regulation from the central government,China′s terminal market prices forboth electricity and natural gas do not reflect the real supply–demand situation.This paper providesquantitative results on the correlation between Chinese and international energy prices to better predictthe impact of international energy pricefluctuations on China′s domestic energy supply and guide thedesign of more efficient energy pricing policies.Moreover,it provides references for developing countriesto improve their energy market systems and trading,and to coordinate domestic and internationalenergy markets.&2013Elsevier Ltd.All rights reserved.1.IntroductionEnergy prices,influenced by many factors,are central to theenergy market.For example,oil prices are affected by worldeconomic growth,technological progress and industrial structure,exchange rate,geopolitics,speculation,seasonal climate,inven-tory,alternative energy prices and other factors(Chai et al.,2011).In comparison,the electricity price is influenced by generationconstruction cost,coal price,voltage level,load density and therapid development of electrical vehicles(He et al.,2013).Thefactors that affect natural gas prices are different in different areas.While market supply is the main factor affecting the NorthAmerican market,both market supply and alternative fuel pricesare the main factors affecting the European natural gas market andmarket demand together with alternative fuel prices are the mainfactors affecting the natural gas market in Asia-Pacific(Cong,2012).The impact factors for coal prices vary by region as well.For instance,the main factors influencing coal prices in China canbe divided into three categories:supply factors,demand factors,and comprehensive factors of supply and demand(Kong et al.,2009).It can be seen that the energy prices are highly correlatedContents lists available at ScienceDirectjournal homepage:/locate/enpolEnergy Policy0301-4215/$-see front matter&2013Elsevier Ltd.All rights reserved./10.1016/j.enpol.2013.07.136☆Thefirst author′s resume:Professor of North China Electric Power Universitywith main research interests in energy economics andmanagement.n Corresponding author.Tel.:þ861051963733;fax:þ861080796904.E-mail addresses:heyongxiu@,yongxiuhe@(Y.He).Energy Policy62(2013)898–909and intertwined.Especially in global energy markets,based on common factors,the interaction among typical energy prices is noteworthy.The price relationship among typical energy sources has become an important reference for various countries to develop energy-related policies,which has led to many studies.Here,we briefly review some references on the interdependency of various energy prices.1.1.Oil pricesThe relationship between oil prices mainly includes the price relationships between different crude oil products and between crude oil and refined oil.There are co-integrated relationships among the spot prices of several different types of crude oil,and the co-integrated relationships are stronger in Europe than in America(Lanza et al., 2005).An enormous amount of research about the relationships between crude oil and refined oil prices has been done where an econometric models is usually applied,including Johansen′s max-imum likelihood approach(Serletis,1994),the least squares method (Sen,2003),co-integration analysis and error correction model(ECM) (Gjolberg and Johnsen,1999and Westgaard et al.,2011),etc.The results of the researches show a co-integrated relationship between crude oil and refined oil prices,and the refined oil prices are dominated by thefluctuation in crude oil prices.Moreover,Dunis et al.(2006)found a non-linear co-integration function between crude oil and unleaded gasoline prices,and the deviations from the fair value were nearly three times larger on the downside than on the upside.1.2.Electricity pricesRegarding electricity prices,a variety of econometric models were used for the analysis of the relationship between electricity and other energy prices,such as co-integration analyses,Granger causality and time series models.The long-term equilibrium relationships between electricity and coal prices,among electricity prices,exchange rates and oil prices(Muñoz and Dickey,2009), was revealed by a co-integration analysis(Mohammadi,2009).The results of a Granger causality analysis reveal two-way causality relations between electricity and coal prices(Mohammadi,2009), and between wholesale electricity prices and natural gas prices (Woo et al.,2006).Furthermore,the long-term relationship between electricity and gas prices was also verified by time series models(Ferkistad et al.,2011).It was also shown that the U.S.peak electricity prices influenced the natural gas prices,which in turn influenced crude oil prices(Mjelde and Bessler,2009).1.3.Natural gas pricesThe natural gas prices are an important determinant of lique-fied natural gas(LNG)imports(Maxwell and Zhu,2011),and there is a unidirectional causal relationship running from LNG prices to wholesale electricity prices in both the short and the long run, which means that an increase in LNG prices directly affects wholesale power prices(Chae et al.,2012).The U.S.and U.K.gas prices had a long-term equilibrium with crude oil prices before 2009,but after2009,the U.S.gas price was decoupled from the crude oil price while the U.K.gas price remained correlated with the oil price(Erdős,2012).However,for the future prices of crude oil and natural gas,it was predicted that they would not be highly correlated frequently(Tonn et al.,2010).1.4.Coal pricesIn recent years,the coal prices have been increasingly volatile worldwide and have tracked other fossil fuel prices more closely (Yang et al.,2012).He and Li(2009)studied the causality between coal prices and electricity prices and the volatility of those prices in China using a co-integration test and the state space model.Their study found a two-way causality relationship between coal prices and electricity prices.The coal price increase will cause a rise in the cost of the electric power production,but the influence gradually descends with the increase in coal prices(He et al.,2010).Although much research has been done as discussed above,the effort on studying the correlation between Chinese and interna-tional energy prices has been insufficient.Research such as (Lu et al.,2009)has also been carried out to compare the price ratios among oil,coal,electric power and natural gas with inter-national standards,concluding that Chinese energy prices are relatively lower and price ratios are unreasonable.However,the past studies generally focused on energy prices in developed countries without referring to developing countries,especially the Chinese energy price system and the connection between the Chinese energy market and global energy markets.China is one of the fastest growing economies in the world and plays a significant role in international energy markets.A thorough under-standing of the interactions between Chinese and international energy prices can greatly help develop relevant polices for China′s energy markets,which have their own characteristics.At present, Chinese oil and coal prices are market-oriented,while electricity and gas prices are subject to government control.The coal and electricity price series have moved correlatively since2003,while gasoline and diesel price series have been linked since1997.The co-integrated processes of energy prices are different by group of energy sources(Ma and Oxley,2010).Therefore,this paper speci-fically investigates the energy price relationships between Chinese and typical international countries.In addition,compared with the typical approach by applying an econometric analysis directly to the energy price time series,we suggest the trend and periodicity of energy price time series should also be considered.We show in the paper that it is more reasonable tofirst decompose energy price time series into price trend and price cycle by the Hodrick–Prescott(HP)filter and then use the energy price cycle part to analyze the relationship between energy prices by a time differ-ence analysis.It is of great significance to analyse the lag and lead nature of the variation of Chinese and international energy prices, and the results can provide guidance for the reform of energy prices in China.The remainder of this paper is organized as follows.Section2 briefly introduces the basic principles of the Granger causality model, the HPfilter and time difference analysis.Section3introduces the reform and current situation related to Chinese energy prices.Section 4analyzes the Granger causality relationship of energy prices between China and typical developed countries,separates the price trend from the energy price time series to obtain a price cycle using the HPfilter, and lastly assesses the time differences among the different kinds of energy prices with Granger causality relationships using a time difference analysis.Section5concludes the paper with energy policy suggestions.2.Model and methods2.1.Granger causality modelThe Granger causality model is an autoregressive distributed lag model designed to reveal the change of a variable by the past behaviors of its own and other variables.However,many economic variables have mutual relationship.A Granger causality test is essentially to test whether the lag variables of one variable can beY.He et al./Energy Policy62(2013)898–909899included in the other variables in the equation.If a change in variable x causes a change in variable y ,the change in variable x should precede that in variable y .In the regression model used to predict y ,introducing variable x into the model as an independent variable can greatly improve the ability to interpret the regression model.The regular model is shown in Eq.(1):y t ¼c þ∑ri ¼1αi y t Ài þ∑qj ¼1βj x t Àj þεtð1Þwhere c is a constant term,r and q are lag phases of the dependent variables and independent variables respectively,αi and βj are parameters and εt is a random disturbance term.Parameters are estimated through the least squares method and the F-statistic is used for the Granger causality analysis.The null hypothesis of the F -test is βj ¼0.Thus,if the calculated value of the F-statistic exceeds the critical value,the null hypothesis is rejected,namely variable x Granger causes variable y .2.2.HP filterAssume that the time series Y is Y ¼f y 1;y 2;:::;y n g ,the trendfactor Y T is Y T ¼f y T 1;y T 2;:::;y Tn g and n is the sample length.The trendfactor Y Tis usually de fined as the solution to the following minimization problem:min∑n i ¼1ðy i Ày i T Þ2þλ∑ni ¼1½B ðL Þy i T 2()ð2Þwhere B (L )is a delay operator polynomial.B ðL Þ¼ðL À1À1ÞÀð1ÀL Þð3ÞBy placing Eq.(3)into formula (2),the HP filter minimizes the following loss function:min∑n i ¼1ðy i Ày i T Þ2þλ∑n À1i ¼2½ðy i þ1T Ày i T ÞÀðy i T Ày i À1T Þ 2()ð4Þwhere the first term in braces measures the fluctuating factor and the second term measures the degree of smoothness of the trend factor,λ,called the smooth parameter,is used to adjust the ratio of the two parts.Generally,for annual data,λis 100,for quarterly data,λis 1600,and for monthly data,λis 14400.2.3.Time difference analysisThe time difference correlation coef ficients are obtained by choosing a certain index as the basic index first,letting the other index lead or lag for several terms and lastly calculating the correlation coef ficients of these two indices.The speci fic mathe-matical expression for the time difference correlation coef ficients is shown in Eq.(5):Assume that Y ¼f Y 1;Y 2;:::;Y n g is the basic index,X ¼f X 1;X 2;:::X n g is the other index and r l is the time difference correlation coef ficient.r l ¼∑nt ¼1ðx t þl Àx Þðy t Ày Þffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi∑n t ¼1ðx t þl Àx Þ2∑nt ¼1ðy t Ày Þ2s ;l ¼0;71;:::;7Lð5Þwhere the negative value of l represents lead and the positive value represents lag;L is the maximum delay;and n is the total number of data points used.Assuming that the delay value corresponding to the maximum time difference correlation coef ficient is l n ,which isobtained from Eq.(6):r l n ¼max ÀL r l r Lj r l jð6ÞThe maximum time difference correlation coef ficient re flects the time difference correlation relationship between the other index and the basic index,and the delay value corresponding to the maximum time difference correlation coef ficient is the lead or lag length.3.The reform and current situation in Chinese energy prices 3.1.Reform and current situation on petroleum priceBefore 1994,there was little connection between Chinese domestic market and international oil markets,since the Chinese petroleum price was largely controlled by the central government.In 1994,the government reorganized the domestic crude oil market for the first time,which resulted in a uniform state-regulated price and market prices.From 1998to 2002,the Chinese crude oil price consisted of a standard price and a premium,where the standard price was decided by the average price of typical international crude oil traded in the past month and the premium was obtained by negotiation between the demand side and the supply side.From 2000to 2008,Chinese re fined oil prices were connected with the re fined oil markets in Singapore,Rotterdam and New York,and domestic re fined oil prices thus changed only when the fluctuation in international petrol price exceeded 8%,consequently adjusting the benchmark price.From 2008to the present,Chinese re fined oil prices have mainly been co-deter-mined by the crude oil prices of Brent,Dubai and Minas and by considering the average cost and pro fit of the domestic re finery industry.3.2.Reform and current situation on coal priceBefore 1993,the Chinese coal price was set by the government based on the price ratios compared with other important capital goods,and not dependent on the theoretical coal price,which cannot re flect the relationship between demand and supply of coal.From 1993to 2002,China introduced a market mechanism into the coal industry gradually,which led to the double-track coal pricing system.In regards to the price of thermal coal,China implemented a government-guided pricing policy instead of regulated pricing.From 2002to 2006,the thermal coal price realized market pricing,whereas the steam coal price involving unusual fluctuations was still interfered with and controlled by the central government.From 2006to the present,China abandoned its control over the steam coal price,which transformed the coal pricing mechanism from government pricing to market pricing.3.3.Reform and current situation on electricity priceFrom 1985to 1997,to address electricity shortage,China aimed to implement a policy of financing electric power generation using various pricing systems,such as the power price based on individual cost reimbursements,which promoted the develop-ment of the domestic electric power industry.From 1998to 2002,the electricity price was exposed as fallible because it only considered the individual cost components instead of the social average cost.Then,China adjusted its electricity price system by deciding the prices by the internal rate of return approved by the government and the social average cost.In 2002,the State Power Corporation was divided into two transmission providers,five power generation corporations and four separate companies.Since 2002,the feed-in tariff,transmission and distribution price and sales price still have to be approved by the central government,Y.He et al./Energy Policy 62(2013)898–909900while the feed-in tariff is based on the regional benchmark electricity price.Meanwhile,according to the national energy-saving generation dispatching policy,renewable energy is pro-mised to be on gridfirst and the price of renewable energy can be compensated for according to the national policy of renewable energy.To implement the policy of energy conservation and emission reductions,the electricity sales prices have adopted such pricing systems as differential prices,Time-of-Use(TOU)prices, interruptible prices and reliability-differentiated prices.TOU offers different prices during a day depending on the time-of-use.It is mainly implemented for large industrial customers in some areas.To further improve energy efficiency,China has implemented a multi-tiered tariff mechanism on households since July2012,which increases with the growth of the household electricity consumption.3.4.Reform and current situation on natural gas priceBefore1982,the natural gas price was controlled by the central government.It was maintained constantly below0.05yuan/m3; besides,the natural gas wellhead price was uniform across all terminals.From1982to1997,the government adjusted the natural gas wellhead price,the terminal gas prices began to be determined by the pricing department of the local government,and gas corporations could produce a certain amount of gas for self-sale. From1997to2002,the‘old price for old pipeline and new price for new pipeline’pricing system was implemented,which con-sidered such factors as alternative energy prices,inflation and the price endurance of end-users.The period from2002to the present has constituted an important phase in establishing a new pricing mechanism for China as the natural gas price was linked up with other alternative energy prices thus enabling dynamic price adjustments on the basis that gas prices in the upper and middle segments of the supply chain are determined by the central government and those in the lower position are determined by the local government.Further,a natural gas pricing reform pilot was carried out in the provinces of Guangdong and Guangxi in 2011.The current cost-plus-based pricing method may be replaced by the‘netback market value’-based method in the future.4.Correlation between Chinese and internationalenergy prices4.1.Typical energy markets in developed countriesAccording to BP Statistical Review of World Energy2013,the global coal consumption volume was3730.1million ton oil equivalent in2012.Developing countries are gradually becoming the main consumer instead of developed countries.The top ten coal consumption countries and their consumption volumes in 2012are illustrated in Fig.1.The coal consumption in the U.S.is larger than that in any other OECD member.Its consumption accounts for more than40%of total consumption in OECD countries in2012,while Japan and Germany also show a high level of coal consumption.Of non-OECD members,Chinese coal consumption is larger than that of any other country.Its consumption accounts for70.0%of the total con-sumption in non-OECD countries and50.2%of the total consump-tion in the world,while Russia(a traditional industrial country) and India(emerging economy)are also becoming the main coal consumption forces in non-OECD countries.Moreover,the steam coal price and trade volume are important yardsticks in international coal markets.Global trade volumes of steam coal in2008and2009are illustrated in Table1.Table1shows that the global steam coal trade volume has increased in the past two years.The Chinese and Australian total trade volume increased markedly with an annual growth rate of 22.4%,and in2009the total volume accounts for62.6%of the global total volume,whereas the trade volume in both the U.S.and Europe showed negative growth in the same year.At present,coal production and consumption in China ranksfirst in the world, while the volume of coal exports in Australia also ranksfirst. Therefore,coal prices in China and Australia have a significant impact on the global coal market.This paper selects the U.S.and Australia as typical international coal markets based on the trade and consumption volume of coal in those two countries.Also based on the trade volumes and their roles in world-wide energy supply,we select our other typical international energy markets in the same way.Therefore,we consider that the U.S.WTI crude oil market,U.S.refined oil market,British Brent crude oil market and British refined oil market represent typical interna-tional petroleum markets.Further,the U.S.HenryHub natural gas market and the U.S.terminal natural gas market represent typical international natural gas markets,while the U.S.terminal electri-city market represents a typical international electricity market.4.2.Data sourcesThis paper selects monthly data on typical global energy prices from2000to2010as the sample.Chinese energy price data mainly come from the International Energy Net,1China Statistical Yearbook, Energy Statistics Yearbook,China Petroleum&Chemical Corpora-tion,2China National Petroleum Corporation3and China National Offshore Oil Corporation4etc.International energy price data mainly come from Energy Prices and Taxes Quarterly Statistics2nd Quarter2011issued by the International Energy Agency,the U.S. Energy Information Administration and the London International Petroleum Exchange.5All energy price data are converted into$/toe. At the same time,in order to eliminate time series heteroskedas-ticity,each energy price series is transformed into logarithms.The energy prices used in this paper are shown in Table2.4.3.Petroleum market4.3.1.Correlation analysis of petroleum pricesThe correlation analysis between crude oil and refined oil prices in typical energy markets has been conducted using Eviews 6.0,and the correlation coefficient matrix is shown in Table3. As can be seen,there is a high correlation between ChineseDaqing Fig.1.Top ten coal consumption countries and their consumption volumes in2012.1.2.3.4.5.Y.He et al./Energy Policy62(2013)898–909901crude oil prices and the U.S.WTI crude oil prices as well as the British Brent crude oil prices;the correlation coef ficients between Chinese (Beijing and Guangzhou)#97gasoline prices and Daqing crude oil prices as well as the Brent crude oil prices are high and above 0.8.The correlation coef ficient between the Chinese and the U.S.gasoline prices is relatively high,while it is relatively low between the Chinese and British gasoline prices.4.3.2.Granger causality test of petroleum pricesIt is necessary to examine data stability when we use the Granger causality test.If the time series is unstable,the result of the Granger causality test may become invalid.ADF (Augmented Dickey –Fuller)test is a method to test whether a time series has unit root in the econometric time-series analysis.If there is no unit root in one time series,the time series is stationary;otherwise it is not a stationary series.This paper examines data stability using the ADF method based on Eviews6.0.We find that no energy price time series are stable.As instability can be usually eliminated by taking the first-order difference of the time series of all energy prices,we apply the Granger causality test on the new processed energy price time series in Table 4.Table 4shows that the U.S.WTI crude oil price Granger causes #97gasoline price,and Chinese Daqing crude oil price Grangercauses Guangzhou #97gasoline price.Overall,crude oil prices Granger cause re fined oil prices in typical energy markets.In the re fined oil markets,gasoline prices of the U.S.and Britain Granger cause Chinese gasoline price,which are related to the Chinese re fined oil pricing mechanism.Between 2001and 2008,Chinese re fined oil prices were adjusted with reference to the market prices in Singapore,Rotterdam and New York.After 2008,Chinese re fined oil prices have been mainly co-determined by the Brent,Dubai and Minas crude oil prices.It should be noted that Granger causality does not mean a causal relationship between the two.A Granger causality test is to test the usefulness of independent variables in predicting depen-dent variables,rather than a general cause and effect relationship.Therefore,according to the results of the Granger causality test,we can predict the energy prices to some degree.For example,we can predict the Chinese re fined oil prices based on the re fined oil prices in the U.S.and Britain.4.3.3.HP filtering and time difference analysis of petroleum prices 4.3.3.1.Relationships between the Chinese and international crude oil prices.With the rapid development of the Chinese economy,the consumption of crude and re fined oil has increased sharply.In order to meet the domestic demand for energy,a large amountTable 2Table of typical energy price variables.Energy Energy price variableVariable symbol Crude oilChinese Daqing crude oil price lncn_dqing WTI crude oil price lnus_wti Brent crude oil pricelnbrent Re fined oilThe U.S.premium unleaded gasoline (97RON)price lnus_97British premium unleaded gasoline (97RON)price lnuk_97Beijing premium unleaded gasoline (97RON)pricelnbj_97Guangzhou premium unleaded gasoline (97RON)price lngz_97CoalChinese Qinhuangdao port coal prices lnqh_coal Australian BJ steam coal price lnaus_coal The U.S.Appalachian coal price lnus_coal Electricity The U.S.industrial electricity price lnus_inele The U.S.residential electricity price lnus_hoele Natural gasThe HenryHub natural gas spot price lnus_henrygas The U.S.industrial natural gas price lnus_ingas The U.S.residential natural gas pricelnus_hogasTable 1Global trade volumes of steam coal in 2008and 2009(Million ton).Countries/areas Trade volume in 2008Percentage of total volume (%)Trade volume in 2009Percentage of total volume (%)Growth rate (%)World676.0100708.5100 4.8China and Australia 362.353.6443.462.622.4Europe 226.033.4208.929.5À7.6U.S.41.46.131.54.4À23.9Table 3Correlation coef ficient matrix between crude oil and re fined oil prices in typical energy markets.Correlation coef ficient lndqing lnus_wti lnbrent lnuk_97lnus_97lnbj_97lngz_97lndqing 1.000.990.990.950.970.810.83lnus_wti 0.99 1.00 1.000.960.970.800.82lnbrent 0.99 1.00 1.000.960.980.810.84lnuk_970.950.960.96 1.000.960.700.72lnus_970.970.970.980.96 1.000.790.80lnbj_970.810.800.810.700.79 1.000.99lngz_970.830.820.840.720.800.99 1.00Table 4Results of the Granger causality tests among petroleum prices in typical energy markets.Null hypothesisLags F -statistic Prob.lnus_97does not Granger Cause lnus_wti 30.319690.8111lnus_wti does not Granger Cause lnus_97310.1462 5.00E À06lngz_97does not Granger Cause lndqing 30.467360.7059lndqing does not Granger Cause lngz_97311.6404 2.00E À06lnbj_97does not Granger Cause lnus_9730.732130.5354lnus_97does not Granger Cause lnbj_9739.87811 1.00E À05lngz_97does not Granger Cause lnuk_9730.140630.9354lnuk_97does not Granger Cause lngz_9738.552485.00E À05Y.He et al./Energy Policy 62(2013)898–909902。
大学英语六级改革适用(段落翻译)模拟试卷11(题后含答案及解析)
大学英语六级改革适用（段落翻译）模拟试卷11(题后含答案及解析) 题型有： 5. TranslationPart ⅣTranslation1．中国是一个发展中国家(developing country)，目前正面临着发展经济和保护环境的双重任务。
从国情出发。
中国在全面推进现代化建设的过程中，把环境保护作为一项基本国策(basic national policy)，把实现可持续发展(sustairlable development)作为一个重大战略(strategy)，在全国范围内开展了大规模的污染防治和生态环境保护。
改革开放18年来，中国国民生产总值(gross national product)以年均10％左右的速度持续增长，而环境质量基本避免了相应恶化的局面。
实践表明，中国实行的经济、社会和环境协调发展的方针是有成效的。
正确答案：China is a developing country. Now it is confronted with the dual task of developing the economy and protecting the environment. Proceeding from its national conditions, China has, in the process of promoting its overall modernization program, made environmental protection one of its basic national policies, regarded the realization of sustainable development as an important strategy and carried out throughout the country large-scale measures for pollution prevention and control as well as ecological environment protection. Over the 18 years since its adoption of reform and opening to the outside world, China’s gross national product (GNP) has achieved a sustained annual growth of around 10 percent, while its environmental quality has basically steered clear of the outcome of corresponding deterioration. Practice has proved that the principle adopted by China of effecting coordinated development between the economy, the society and the environment has been effective. 涉及知识点：汉译英2．传统的中国绘画是一门独特的艺术(fine art)，无论是风格还是技巧都与世界其他艺术门类迥然不同。
2017春英语必修三课件：Unit 1 Festivals around Section 3 精品
• 4．Why didn't Li Fang meet Hu Jin? • A．Hu Jin broke her word. • B．Li Fang didn't wait long enough. • C．They waited for each other at different
places. • D．Li Fang watched TV and forgot the
• 单句语法填空。 • (1)I haveapaonlog_y_______ (apologize) to make to
you—I'm afraid I opened your letter by mistake.
• (2)When we met again，he afoprologized to me ________ not having kept his word and asked me to forgive him.
• A．Glad. B．Angry. • C．Disappointed. D．Surprised. • 答案：B • 3．Why did Li Fang throw away the flowers
and chocolates? • A．He thought Hu Jin didn't love him. • B．He waited in a wrong place. • C．Hu Jin didn't like his gifts.
• 单句语法填空。
• (1)You can choose to forgive someone who has wronged fyoorguiveenveessn if they do not deserve or ask for _____________ (forgive)．
高三英语社会热点评论单选题60题(答案解析)
高三英语社会热点评论单选题60题(答案解析)1.The government is taking measures to protect the environment. We should also do our part and ____ waste.A.reduceB.increaseC.createD.destroy答案：A。
reduce 是减少；increase 是增加；create 是创造；destroy 是破坏。
政府在采取措施保护环境，我们也应该尽自己的一份力减少废物。
2.Many people are now using reusable bags instead of plastic ones. This is a good way to ____ plastic pollution.A.increaseB.reduceC.createD.ignore答案：B。
increase 是增加；reduce 是减少；create 是创造；ignore 是忽视。
很多人现在使用可重复使用的袋子而不是塑料袋，这是减少塑料污染的好方法。
3.We should recycle as much as possible to ____ the amount of waste going to landfills.A.increaseC.keepD.destroy答案：B。
increase 是增加；reduce 是减少；keep 是保持；destroy 是破坏。
我们应该尽可能地回收利用以减少进入垃圾填埋场的废物量。
4.Planting trees is an important way to ____ the environment.A.destroyB.polluteC.protectD.ignore答案：C。
destroy 是破坏；pollute 是污染；protect 是保护；ignore 是忽视。
CHINA_TAKES_THE_LEAD_ON_THE_RENEWABLE_ENERGY_PUSH
80OPINIONCHINA TAKES THE LEAD ON THE RENEWABLE ENERGY PUSHhina is shoring up its position as the world leader in renewable power and potentially outpacing its own ambitiousenergy targets,” states a recent article in the British newspaper The Guardian . The piece, citing a report by Global Energy Monitor, finds China is set to double its capacity and produce 1,200 gigawatts of energythrough wind and solar power by 2025, reaching its 2030 goal five years ahead of time, a development which a project manager at the firm said was “jaw-dropping”.Obviously, such remarkable progress in expanding its non-fossil energy sources is underpinned by the range of policies the Chinese government has adopted, which have in turn created a favorable environment and offered opportunities for development of the entire sector.Despite these achievements, Western media outlets and the U.S. continue to misleadingly scapegoat China as havingincreased responsibility for the global climate crisis, deflecting their own legacies andinaction. China has actually achieved the impossible, as it is undergoing a clean energy revolution despite being a developing country. When it comes to clean energy and growth, China is truly “having its cake” and eating it and should be praised rather than derided in its efforts to maximize renewables.China has undergone incredible changes in the past 70 years, which have seen it transition from being an agrarian society into the world’s largest industrial and“CTom Fowdytrading country. This has been strenuous on the environment because such massive growth across a nation of 1.4 billion people has obviously mandated a need for ever-spiraling power consumption. China needs energy to grow, and that same dilemma is reflected across every single other developing country on Earth. This makes it more challenging for such countries to move away from fossil fuels and to establish renewable sources of energy, especially if that country does not have the financial resources to do so. The burden of global climateresponsibility hasthus been inherently unequal.China, however,has long soughtto demonstratethat it is a reliable global stakeholder and takes climatechange seriously.Moreover, its growth requirement also means it needsenergy sources it canfeasibly use, and with limited domestic energy resources, the country is also battling to become energy-independent amidst an insecure global environment. Because of this, the Chinese government has invested overwhelmingly in renewable energy production and now leads the world with a record 23,737 renewable energy patents, as well as in investment in solar panels, wind farms, hydroelectric power stations, and electricvehicles and chargers,becoming a world leader in all of these fields.This is having a positive impact on the rest of the world as well. China’s solar panels exports grew to US$54 billion last year, increasing by US$20 billion from the year previously, with its total renewable energy goods exports standing at around US$100 billion. A research report from Wood Mckensie found that nearly 90 percent of lithium-ion batteries and two-thirds of solar modules are manufactured in China, along with vast ecosystems of people, industrial parks, materials supply, and logistics. In turn, Chinese companies have also expanded their manufacturing of these goods into neighboring countries, such as Thailand and Vietnam, ensuring that all nations can benefit from increased access to renewables.Being an emergent industrialized country, China has to balance its need for economic growth and development with considerations to address climate change. Despite this daunting challenge, the country has focused on “harmony between humanity and nature” when planning its development, making tough decisions, and striving for its ambitious targets to advance sustainable development and share its experience with the rest of the world.By Tom FowdyAbout the author T om Fowdy is a Britishpolitical and international relations analyst and a graduate of Durham and Oxford universities.China has actually achieved the impossible, as it is undergoing a clean energy revolution despite being a developing country.Copyright ©博看网. All Rights Reserved.。
The_Economic_Effects_of_Energy_Price_Shocks1
Journal of Economic Literature 2008, 46:4, 871–909http:/articles.php?doi =10.1257/jel.46.4.8718711. IntroductionThe price of energy is only one of many prices faced by households and firms—yet it attracts a disproportionate amount of attention in the media and from policymak-ers and economists. A common perception is that energy price increases are fundamen-tally different from increases in the prices of other goods. One reason is that energy pricesexperience sharp and sustained increases at times that are not typical of other goods and services. A second reason is that these price increases matter more than in the case of other goods because the demand for energy is comparatively inelastic. For example, most workers have to drive to work every day and, thus, have little choice but to acquiesce to higher gasoline prices. Similarly, households have little choice but to endure higher natu-ral gas prices, as they cannot afford to leave their homes unheated. A third reason that energy prices are perceived to be different is that energy price fluctuations seem to be determined by forces that are exogenous to the U.S. economy, such as political strifeThe Economic Effects of Energy Price ShocksLutz Kilian *Large fluctuations in energy prices have been a distinguishing characteristic of the U.S. economy since the 1970s. Turmoil in the Middle East, rising energy prices in the United States, and evidence of global warming recently have reignited interest in the link between energy prices and economic performance. This paper addresses a number of the key issues in this debate: What are energy price shocks and where do they come from? How responsive is energy demand to changes in energy prices? How do consumer’s expenditure patterns evolve in response to energy price shocks? How do energy price shocks affect U.S. real output, inflation, and stock prices? Why do energy price increases seem to cause recessions but energy price decreases do not seem to cause expansions? Why has there been a surge in the price of oil in recent years? Why has this new energy price shock not caused a recession so far? Have the effects of energy price shocks waned since the 1980s and, if so, why? As the paper demonstrates, it is critical to account for the endogeneity of energy prices and to dif-ferentiate between the effects of demand and supply shocks in energy markets when answering these questions.* Kilian: University of Michigan and CEPR. I thankPaul Edelstein for excellent research assistance. Lucas Davis and Ana-María Herrera provided helpful comments on an earlier draft of the paper, as did three anonymous referees and the Editor.Journal of Economic Literature, Vol. XLVI (December 2008) 872in the Middle East. A fourth reason is that major energy price increases in the past have often been followed by severe economic dislocations, suggesting a causal link from higher energy prices to recessions, higher unemployment, and possibly inflation.In this paper, I selectively review the recent literature on the effect of energy price shocks on the U.S. economy. For a comple-mentary survey of the relationship between oil prices and the macroeconomy, the reader is referred to James D. Hamilton (2008). My objective is not to provide a comprehensive survey of the literature. Rather I wish to highlight some recent methodological devel-opments and to outline how these develop-ments have altered our perceptions of where energy price shocks originate, how they are transmitted, and how much they affect the economy. The paper addresses a number of the key questions in the ongoing debate about the economic effects of energy price shocks: Where do energy price shocks origi-nate? How responsive is energy demand to changes in energy prices? How do consum-ers’ expenditure patterns evolve in response to energy price shocks? How do energy price shocks affect U.S. real output and inflation and the U.S. stock market? Why do energy price increases seem to cause recessions but energy price decreases do not seem to cause economic expansions? Why has there been a surge in the price of crude oil in recent years? Why has this new energy price shock not caused a recession so far? Have the effects of energy price shocks waned since the 1980s and, if so, why?The remainder of the paper is organized as follows. In section 2, I discuss the identifica-tion of exogenous shifts in energy prices with special emphasis on alternative specifications of energy price shocks and alternative frame-works for estimating the effects of energy price shocks. Section 3 provides an overview of the effects of unanticipated changes in energy prices on U.S. consumer expenditures and firms’ investment expenditures. I discuss the most prominent channels of transmission and the empirical evidence in their support.I also address the question of whether there is an asymmetry in the responses to energy price increases and energy price decreases. Section 3 also contains detailed estimates of the responsiveness of energy consump-tion to higher energy prices and, more gen-erally, assesses how consumers’ expenditure patterns evolve in response to energy price shocks. The section concludes with a discus-sion of the link between crude oil prices and monetary policy. I address the question of why the effects of energy price shocks have weakened since the second half of the 1980s in section 4. Section 5 illustrates how dis-entangling demand and supply shocks in oil markets can help us understand the evolution of energy prices. This section also demon-strates the differential impact of demand and supply shocks in the global oil market on U.S. real GDP, consumer prices, and stock prices. The concluding remarks are in section 6.2. Methodological Issues Raised by theEndogeneity of Energy PricesIt is widely accepted that energy prices in general, and crude oil prices in particu-lar, have been endogenous with respect to U.S. macroeconomic conditions dating back to the early 1970s. Endogeneity here refers to the fact that not only do energy prices affect the U.S. economy, but that there is reverse causality from U.S. and, more gener-ally, global macroeconomic aggregates to the price of energy. Clearly, both the supply of energy and the demand for energy depend on global macroeconomic aggregates such as global real economic activity and interest rates (see Robert B. Barsky and Lutz Kilian 2002, 2004). Thus, a correlation between energy prices and macroeconomic outcomes does not necessarily imply causation. One response to this problem has been to apply873 Kilian: The Economic Effects of Energy Price Shocksstatistical transformations to the price of energy to extract the exogenous component of oil prices. The leading example of this approach is the net oil price increase mea-sure proposed by Hamilton (1996, 2003).1 2.1 Measures of Net Oil Price Increases Building on work by Knut Anton Mork (1989), Lee, Ni, and Ratti (1995), and Hamilton (1996), Hamilton (2003) suggests that, although the price of crude oil itself is not exogenous with respect to U.S. mac-roeconomic aggregates, a suitable nonlin-ear transformation of the price of oil (based on the amount by which nominal oil prices exceed their maximum value over the previ-ous three years) is. Such transformed regres-sors have been used widely in studying the impulse responses of U.S. sectoral and mac-roeconomic aggregates to oil price shocks. The purpose of the statistical transformation of oil prices is to isolate the component of the price of crude oil that can be attributed to political events in the Middle East, which in turn are exogenous to global macroeco-nomic conditions. In support of the exoge-neity of the net oil price measure, Hamilton shows that using the oil price changes pre-dicted by exogenous oil supply variations as instruments in a regression of real GDP growth on lagged percentage changes in the nominal price of oil results in estimates of the structural regression coefficients that look remarkably similar to the reduced-form estimates obtained from regressing GDP growth on net oil price increases instead. Hamilton concludes that the latter reduced-1 The net oil price increase is defined as the difference between the current price of oil and the maximum price over the previous year (or alternatively the previous three years) if the current price exceeds the previous maximum, and zero otherwise. A number of alternative oil price trans-formations have been suggested by, among others, Kiseok Lee, Shawn Ni, and Ronald A. Ratti (1995). Hamilton (2003) shows that these alternative measures tend to pro-duce results similar to the net increase measure.form relationship e ffectively represents a causal relationship, lending credence to the practice of treating net oil price increases as exogenous.2Although Hamilton’s analysis represents an important step forward in this literature, there is reason to be skeptical of the exoge-neity of the net oil price increase measure because of the nature of the instruments used by Hamilton. As is well known, weak instru-ments produce biased instrumental variable (IV) regression estimators and hypothesis tests with large size distortions (see James H. Stock, Jonathan H. Wright, and Motohiro Yogo 2002 for a review). In the presence of several variables to be instrumented, as in the IV regressions presented in Hamilton (2003), weak instrument problems may be detected based on the g min statistic of John G. Cragg and Stephen G. Donald (1993). Critical values for a formal test of the null hypothesis of weak instruments have been compiled by Stock and Yogo (2005). Table 1 presents IV regression estimates of the type presented in Hamilton (2003) in support of the exogeneity of the net increase measure of the price of crude oil. In addition to the spec-ification favored by Hamilton (2003), which is shown in column (1), I include a number of alternative specifications involving differ-ent measures of exogenous crude oil supply shocks developed in Kilian (2008a, 2008b), different sample periods, and different mea-sures of nominal and real oil prices. Table 1 shows that in all cases the estimated g min statistics are far below the least conserva-tive critical value of about 4, suggesting that a weak-instrument problem cannot be ruled out. The presence of weak instruments would render the IV estimates inconsistent and2 For example, Hamilton (2003, p. 395) writes that non-linear transformations filter out many of the endogenous factors that have historically contributed to changes in oil prices and seem in practice to be doing something rather similar to isolating the exogenous component of oil price changes (p. 391).Journal of Economic Literature, Vol. XLVI (December 2008) 874standard inference on the dynamic effects of exogenous variations in the price of oil invalid, invalidating any comparison with the reduced-form evidence. Consequently, we have no credible evidence that the responses to net oil price increases correspond to those of truly causal models.This evidence of weak instruments is not surprising, as it has been shown that mea-sures of exogenous oil supply shocks driven by political events in the Middle East fail to explain much of the observed fluctuations in crude oil prices. This result is robust across alternative specifications of exogenous politi-cal oil supply shocks. For example, at most one fourth of the observed increase in the price of oil in 1973–74 can be explained based on such shocks (see Kilian 2008b). In fact, recent evidence in Kilian (forthcom-ing) suggests that crude oil supply shocks, narrowly defined as unanticipated changes in world crude oil production, are far less important for understanding crude oil prices than are shocks to the demand for crude oil. This point will be discussed in more detail in section 5.The fact that net oil price increases are not measures o f e xogenous o il p rice s hocks c an a lso be seen more directly. Kilian (2008b) shows that oil price shocks detected by the nonlin-ear transformation proposed by Hamilton (2003) occur at times when exogenousTABLE 1Instrumental Variable Regressions for U.S. Real GDP GrowthRegressand:Exogenous oil supply shocks measured as quantitativedummies as in Hamilton (2003)Exogenous oil supply shocks asdefined in Kilian (2008b)D gdp tRegressors:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)(13) c3333333333333D gdp t213333333333333D gdp t223333333333333D gdp t233333333333333D gdp t243333333333333D np oil t213—3—3—3—3————D np oil t223—3—3—3—3————D np oil t233—3—3—3—3————D np oil t243—3—3—3—3————D rp oil t21—3—3—3—3—3333D rp oil t22—3—3—3—3—3333D rp oil t23—3—3—3—3—3333D rp oil t24—3—3—3—3—3333g min 1.568 1.524 1.172 1.1210.6600.5590.5630.4230.0630.0550.1040.0550.137Notes: The instruments include a constant, four lags of real GDP growth and eight lags of the oil supply shock series. np t oil and rp t oil and stand for the nominal and real price of crude oil, respectively. 3 marks regressors included in the final-stage regression. Columns (1)–(6) are based on the PPI for domestic crude oil as reported by the BLS and used in Hamilton (2003); columns (7)–(13) are based on the price of imported crude oil as used in Barsky and Kilian (2004). Columns (1) through (8) are based on the quantitative dummy measure of exogenous oil supply shocks of Hamilton (2003), as extended by Kilian (2008b). Columns (9) and (10) are based on the alternative measure of exogenous oil supply shocks introduced in Kilian (2008a, 2008b). The last three columns are based on variations of this measure. Column (11) excludes the Saudi production response; column (12) drops the 1973 Arab oil embargo; column (13) includes Saudi Arabia in the benchmark starting in 1974. The last line shows the g min statistic of Stock and Yogo (2005). The least conservative critical value for the null of weak instruments is about 4.875 Kilian: The Economic Effects of Energy Price Shocksoil supply shocks in the Middle East were conspicuously absent and that there are major exogenous events that are not followed by oil price shocks. Kilian also shows that the same procedure applied to other industrial commodity prices generates spurious evi-dence of exogenous price shocks. Hence, oil price series must be treated as endogenous whether they have been transformed to net oil price increases or not.The lack of exogeneity of the price of oil is not as much of a problem as it may seem because exogeneity is not required for esti-mating the economic effects of changes in oil prices. A much weaker and more defen-sible assumption than strict exogeneity of the price of oil is that innovations to the oil price series (whether transformed or not) are predetermined with respect to U.S. macro-economic aggregates. In other words, the price of oil responds to changes in macroeco-nomic conditions only with a delay. Under this assumption, recursively identified vector autoregressions (VARs) with energy prices ordered first may be used to estimate the dynamic effect of a change in energy prices. Indeed, this assumption forms the basis of a number of influential papers in the lit-erature, including Steven J. Davis and John Haltiwanger (2001) and Lee and Ni (2002), that focus on the linearly unpredictable com-ponent of the net increase in oil prices. The assumption of predeterminedness typically is inappropriate when working with annual data but may provide a good approximation when working with quarterly and, in particu-lar, with monthly data. Thus, there are clear advantages to studying the effects of energy price shocks in a high-frequency time series context compared to panel studies using data at lower frequencies.3The implementation of this VAR approach is discussed in more3 In the latter case, it becomes necessary to find suitable instruments for energy price changes. For example, Julie Berry Cullen, Leora Friedberg, and Catherine Wolfram detail in section 2.5. Although the exactly identifying assumption that energy prices are predetermined with respect to domes-tic macroeconomic aggregates is not test-able within the VAR framework, the working hypothesis that the feedback from shocks to domestic macroeconomic aggregates to the global price of oil is negligible within the same month has been regarded as plausible by many researchers. Ongoing work by Kilian and C. Vega (2008) tests this hypothesis for-mally using regressions of daily changes in oil prices on U.S. macroeconomic news.2.2 The Effect of Changes in the EnergyShareIt is sometimes argued that regressions of macroeconomic aggregates on unanticipated energy price changes are potentially mislead-ing in that they fail to account for the declin-ing share of energy in value added since the 1970s. Indeed this share has been falling from a maximum of 5 percent in 1981 to a low of 1 percent in 1998 but, by 2005, the share had recovered to its original level of 3.3 percent in 1977.4 Interestingly, the pattern of these fluctuations seems to reflect primarily changes in the price of crude oil rather than shifts in energy use. While not trivial, the observed fluctuations in the energy share in value added are largely immaterial for esti-mates of energy price shocks because the share does not fluctuate enough on a quarter-to-quarter basis. Weighted and unweighted quarterly energy price changes have a cor-relation of 99 percent. Thus, little is lost by studying the effect of unweighted energy(2004) use weather data as exogenous instruments for home energy costs.4 See Paul Edelstein and Kilian (2007a). Following Julio J. Rotemberg and Michael Woodford (1996), the energy share in value added is approximated by the sum of nominal value added in oil and gas extraction and imports of petroleum and petroleum products, divided by nominal GDP. No disaggregate value added data are available prior to 1977.Journal of Economic Literature, Vol. XLVI (December 2008) 876price shocks, as has been demonstrated in Edelstein and Kilian (2007a). Weighting can be important, however, in constructing m easures of the retail energy price shocks faced by households and firms, as the next subsection illustrates.2.3 On the Choice of the Energy PriceSeriesMuch of the work on energy price shocks has focused on the price of crude oil. This approach reflects the perception that the bulk of the fluctuations in energy prices since the 1970s has been driven by distur-bances in global crude oil markets that are reflected in the price of imported crude oil and are transmitted from the crude oil mar-ket to retail energy prices. While it is true that disturbances in global crude oil markets are typically reflected in gasoline prices, this is not the only major source of shocks to gaso-line prices. A good example is provided by the effects of Hurricanes Rita and Katrina in late 2005. Whereas the reduction of U.S. crude oil supply associated with these exog-enous events was negligible on a global scale, the reduction in refining capacity was not. It constituted both a decline in the demand for crude oil (associated with a fall of crude oil prices) and a decline in the supply of gaso-line and other refined products, reflected in a sharp increase in gasoline prices. This exam-ple illustrates that, from a consumer’s point of view, a direct measure of retail gasoline prices may be more relevant than a measure of crude oil prices.As of 2002, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), gasoline accounts for 48.7 percent of all energy used by con-sumers, compared with 12.3 percent for nat-ural gas and 33.8 percent for electricity. Since gasoline is by far the most important form of energy consumed in the United States and the one with the most volatile price, little would be lost by focusing on gasoline prices alone in studying the response of consumer expenditures. In contrast, in studying firm behavior neither gasoline nor crude oil prices will be representative of energy prices. For producers, based on 2002 BLS data, elec-tricity makes up 40.3 percent of energy use, natural gas 14.5 percent, and unleaded gaso-line only 14 percent, followed by diesel fuel (11.4 percent) and jet fuel (9.7 percent). The difference in weights has important impli-cations for the magnitude of energy price shocks. For example, during the Persian Gulf War in 1990, crude oil prices rose by 83 percent, whereas the intermediate energy prices faced by firms only rose by 12 percent. This example illustrates that the choice of energy price series may matter a great deal. Different questions may require a different measure of energy price shocks.2.4 Alternative Specifications of EnergyPrice ShocksIn studying the effects of energy price shocks, a natural baseline is the hypothesis that firms and consumers respond propor-tionately to a percent change in energy prices, regardless of the magnitude of the change. I will refer to this model as the percent change or C specification. There are other behav-ioral models, however, that involve nonlinear transformations of the price of energy. One alternative is the possibility that consumers and firms only respond to large shocks. For example, the presence of costs to monitoring energy expenditures and of costs of adjusting consumption patterns might make households reluctant to respond to small energy price changes (see Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg 1998). One may allow for that possibility by defining energy price shocks as increases or decreases that exceed, say, one standard devi-ation of the percent change in energy prices.I will refer to this model as the large percent change or LC specification. A third possibil-ity is that consumers and firms respond only to changes in energy prices that are unprec-edented in recent history. This view calls for877 Kilian: The Economic Effects of Energy Price Shocksa m easure of the net energy price increase of the type proposed by Hamilton (1996, 2003). While Hamilton focuses on net energy price increases, Edelstein and Kilian (2007a, 2007b) extend this measure to include net energy price declines that are constructed in a similar fashion. They document statis-tically significant responses of U.S. macro-economic aggregates to both net increases and net decreases. The resulting model will be referred to as the net percent change or NC specification. Figure 1 illustrates the dif-ferences between these three specifications for U.S. retail energy prices. The example in figure 1 (as well as all subsequent empirical analysis in this paper) is based on the real price of energy, which is the price relevant for resource allocation.5An important question is how to choose between these alternative behavioral mod-els. Edelstein and Kilian (2007a, 2007b) show that the C specification cannot be rejected in favor of the LC specification in general. Whether the C or NC specifica-tion is more appropriate remains an active area of research. Since the NC specification is not nested in the C specification, it is not straightforward to test these specifications or even to compare the magnitudes of the responses implied by the two specifications. In this paper, I will focus on the C specifi-cation, but note that the qualitative results would be similar under the NC specifica-tion, and indeed in most cases for all three specifications.2.5 Alternative VAR Frameworks forModeling Energy Price Shocks Models that treat innovations to energy prices as predetermined with respect to macroeconomic aggregates at high frequency have been used in the literature for many5 For further discussion of the distinction between nominal and real energy prices see, e.g., Hamilton (2008) and Kilian (2008b).years (see, e.g., Rotemberg and Woodford 1996; Davis and Haltiwanger 2001; Lee and Ni 2002; Sylvain Leduc and Keith Sill 2004; Olivier J. Blanchard and Jordi Galí 2007). The assumption of predetermined energy prices rules out instantaneous feedback from U.S. macroeconomic aggregates to energy prices, but allows energy prices to respond to all past information. This assumption permits the consistent estimation of the expected response of real U.S. macroeconomic aggre-gates to an innovation in energy prices. In conjunction with the assumption that there are no other exogenous events that are cor-related with the exogenous energy price innovation, these impulse responses can be interpreted as the causal effect of the energy price innovation (see Thomas F. Cooley and Stephen F. LeRoy 1985).VAR models based on the assumption of predetermined energy prices are not without limitations, however, even if the feedback from domestic macroeconomic shocks to energy prices is negligible in the short run. Notably, these models do not distinguish between energy price innovations driven by supply shocks and demand shocks in energy markets. The latter distinction can be crucial because different demand or supply shocks in energy markets tend to elicit different responses of macroeconomic aggregates. In section 5, I will discuss an alternative VAR approach that makes this distinction appar-ent. Impulse response estimates derived under the assumption of predetermined energy prices can still be interpreted as an estimate of the economic effects of an aver-age energy price shock during the sample period in question. While these response estimates are asymptotically valid, in small samples they may be sensitive to changes in the composition of the underlying demand and supply shocks. Moreover, they are potentially misleading when it comes to the interpretation of specific energy price shock episodes. Finally, such responses also obscureJournal of Economic Literature, Vol. XLVI (December 2008)878Figure 1. Alternative Specifications of Energy Price Shocks: U.S. Retail Energy Prices1970.2–2006.7Notes: Based on PCE price index for consumer energy prices as reported by the BEA. Source: Edelstein and Kilian (2007b).197519801985199019952000200521025510P e r c e n tChanges197519801985199019952000200521025510P e r c e n tLarge changes197519801985199019952000200521025510P e r c e n tNet changes879 Kilian: The Economic Effects of Energy Price Shocksthe fact that energy price shocks driven by demand shocks may proxy for a number of other changes in the economy associated with the underlying demand shocks. This point will be discussed in more detail in sec-tion 5. Nevertheless, estimates of average responses to energy price shocks provide a useful benchmark and allow us to test the implications of various economic models of the transmission of energy price shocks.A convenient vehicle for assessing the average economic effects of energy price shocks on a given macroeconomic aggregate is a recursively identified bivariate VAR, in which the percent change in real energy prices is ordered first and the macroeconomic aggregate of interest is ordered second. For example, we may assess the response of real consumption to a real energy price innovation by specifying a model in the percent change of the real price of energy and the percent growth in real consumption. Generalizations to other specifications of energy price shocks are straightforward. In section 3.1 and 3.2, I use this bivariate workhorse model to quan-tify in detail the responses of consumption and investment expenditures to real energy price shocks. These results will be used in assessing the empirical support for the main channels of transmission discussed in the literature.There is no loss of generality from restrict-ing ourselves to a bivariate model under the maintained assumption of predetermined energy price innovations if we are only inter-ested in consistently estimating the effects of energy price innovations on macroeco-nomic aggregates. If, in addition, we want to assess the precise nature of the transmission, a bivariate model will not suffice. For exam-ple, it is common in the literature to esti-mate larger-dimensional VAR models of the effects of unanticipated oil price shocks that include a monetary policy-reaction function (see, e.g., Ben S. Bernanke, Mark Gertler, and Mark W. Watson 1997, 2004; Nathan S. Balke, Stephen P. A. Brown, and Mine K. Yücel 2002; Lee and Ni 2002; Hamilton and Ana Maria Herrera 2004; Herrera and Elena Pesavento forthcoming). Such VAR models can be useful in assessing the extent to which the overall response of macroeco-nomic aggregates to unanticipated energy price changes is driven by the response of the central bank to the change in energy prices. Since these larger-dimensional structural VAR models require additional identifying assumptions and since they are typically less precisely estimated, there is no reason to depart from the baseline bivariate VAR model for the purpose of the analysis in sec-tions 3.1 and 3.2. Models of the reaction of monetary policy to oil price shocks will be discussed in section 3.4.3. The Effect of Energy Price Shocks onthe EconomyThe standard approach to modeling energy price shocks has been to focus on the effects of an exogenous increase in the price of imported crude oil. Such terms-of-trade shocks traditionally have been thought to matter for the domestic economy through their effects on production decisions (see, e.g., In-Moo Kim and Prakash Loungani 1992; David K. Backus and Mario J. Crucini 2000). In this view, oil is treated as an inter-mediate input in domestic production. How imported oil enters the production function for domestic value added is one of the most studied and least resolved issues in empiri-cal macroeconomics (Backus and Crucini 2000).There are well-known problems in explain-ing a decline in real GDP based on this intermediate input cost or supply channel. The first problem is that the interpretation of crude oil as an intermediate input in the value added production function is ques-tionable if we think of oil as an imported commodity. Under standard assumptions,。
2012年至2015年英语六级阅读真题题目及答案
2012年至2015年英语六级阅读真题题目及答案2012年6月英语六级Passage OneQuestions 52 to 56 are based on the following passage.As anyone who has tried to lose weight knows, realistic goal-setting generally produces the best results. That's partially because it appears people who set realistic goals actually work more efficiently, and exert more effort, to achieve those goals.What's far less understood by scientists, however, are the potentially harmful effects of goal-setting.Newspapers relay daily accounts of goal-setting prevalent in industries and businesses up and down both Wall Street and Main Street , yet there has been surprisingly little research on how the long-trumpeted practice of setting goals may have contributed to the current economic crisis , and unethical (不道德的)behavior in general.“Goals are widely used and promoted as having really beneficial effects. And yet, the same motivation that can push people to exert more effort in a constructive way could also motivate people to be more likely to engage in unethical behaviors,” sa ys Maurice Schweitzer, an associate professor at Penn’s Wharton School.“It turns out there’s no economic benefit to just having a goal---you just get a psychological be nefit” Schweitzer says. “But in many cases, goals have economic rewards that make the m more powerful.”A prime example Schweitzer and his colleagues cite is the 2004 collapse of energy-trading giant Enron, where managers used financial incentives to motivate salesmen to meet specificrevenue goals. The problem, Schweitzer says, is the actual trades were not profitable.Other studies have shown that saddling employees with unrealistic goals can compel them to lie, cheat or steal. Such was the case in the early 1990s when Sears imposed a sales quota on its auto repair staff. It prompted employees to overcharge for work and to complete unnecessary repairs on a companywide basis.Schweitzer concedes his research runs counter to a very large body of literature that commends the many benefits of goal-setting. Advocates of the practice have taken issue with his team’s use of such evidence as news accounts to support his conclusion that goal-setting is widely over-prescribed In a rebuttal (反驳) paper, Dr. Edwin Locke writes:“Goal-setting is not going away. Organizations cannot thrive without being focused on their desired end results any more than an individual can thrive without goals to provide a sense of purpose.”But Schweitzer contends the “mounting causal evidence” linking goal-setting and harmful behavior should be studied to help spotlight issues that merit caution and further investigation. “Even a few negative effects could be so large that they outweigh many positive effects,” he says.“Goal-setting does help coordinate and motivate people. My idea would be to combine that with careful oversight, a strong organizational culture, and make sure the goals that you use are going to be constructive and not significantly harm the organization,” Schweitzer says.注意：此部分试题请在答题卡2上作答。
中国能源消费英语作文
中国能源消费英语作文英文：Energy consumption in China has been a topic of concern for many years. As the world's largest consumer of energy, China has been facing challenges in balancing its energy needs with environmental sustainability. The country's energy mix is heavily reliant on coal, which accounts for over 60% of its energy consumption. This has resulted in high levels of air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions.To address this issue, China has been investing heavily in renewable energy sources, such as wind and solar power. In 2020, China was the world's largest producer of solar energy, generating over 240 GW of solar power. The country has also set a target to reach peak carbon emissions by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.However, changing the country's energy mix is not an easy task. The transition to renewable energy sourcesrequires significant investment and infrastructure development. It also requires changes in consumer behavior and government policies. For example, the government can incentivize the use of electric vehicles by offering subsidies or tax breaks.In addition, energy conservation and efficiency measures can also play a significant role in reducing energy consumption. For example, using energy-efficient appliances, improving building insulation, and promoting public transportation can all help to reduce energy consumption.Overall, reducing energy consumption in China requires a multi-faceted approach that involves investment in renewable energy sources, changes in consumer behavior, and government policies that promote energy efficiency.中文：中国的能源消费一直是人们关注的话题。
大学英语六级改革适用(段落翻译)-试卷229
大学英语六级改革适用（段落翻译）-试卷229(总分：12.00，做题时间：90分钟)一、 Translation(总题数：6，分数：12.00)1.Part Ⅳ Translation（分数：2.00）__________________________________________________________________________________________解析：2.能源是人类赖以生存和发展的重要物质基础。
在整个人类社会发展的历史中，人类文明的每一次重大进步都伴随着能源的改进和更替。
目前，中国已成为世界上最大的能源生产国，形成了煤炭、电力、石油、天然气以及新能源和可再生能源全面发展的能源供应体系。
但中国人口众多、资源不足，能源发展面临着诸多挑战，比如石油储备不足，能源消费增长过快。
为保证能源的可持续发展，中国政府把节约能源放在优先位置，鼓励开发新能源和可再生能源。
（分数：2.00）__________________________________________________________________________________________正确答案：(正确答案：Energy is an essential material basis for human survival and development. Over the entire history of human society, each significant step in the progress of human civilization has been accompanied by energy innovation and substitution. At present, China has become the world's largest energy producer and formed the energy supply system, in which coal, electricity, oil, natural gas, as well as the new energy and renewable energy have been fully developed. However, as a country with a large population and insufficient resources, China faces numerous challenges in energy development. For instance, the oil reserves are not sufficient, and the consumption of energy increases too fast. In order to ensure the sustainable energy development, the Chinese government gives priority to energy conservation and encourages the exploitation of new energy and renewable energy.)解析：解析：l．在第二句中，“伴随”的表达一般用短语be accompanied by；“每一次重大进步”可译作each significant step或each tremendous／remarkable／considerable progress。
An analysis on China`s energy strategy
2 Energy supply pattern revolution-Diversity
Coal consumption`s side effect: In 2013, Chinese CO2 emission amount was 19 times larger than it was in 1965. 9524.3 MT in sum, 7 tons per capita(world average level 5.9).
2 Energy supply pattern revolution-Diversity
Chairman Xi urged to build a batch of nuclear reactors on the east coast, while China already has 27 nuclear reactors are under construction.
2 Energy supply pattern revolution-Diversity
Chinese government shows great determination to cut coal consumption, and to promote non-fossil energy proportion to 20%, seeing great potential in nuclear , solar and wind power stations .
2025届高考英语二轮专题复习：时事语法填空(3篇,含解析)
时事语法填空世界上最大的太阳能发电厂将为600万户家庭供电阅读下面短文，在空白处填入1个适当单词或括号内单词的正确形式。
A state-owned power company in China has announced plans to buildthe world’s biggest solar farm, capable of powering a small country.The 8.5 billion project 1 (construct) in northern China’s Inner Mongolia region and will dispatch electricity to the urban cluster of Jing-Jin-Ji, 2 (consist) of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei.The 8 gigawatt facility is more than half 3 entire installed solar capacity in the UK, and capable of powering 4 (rough) 6 million homes.The integrated energy project will also include 4 GW of wind power, 4 GW of coal-fired power 5 200 MW of solar thermal, as well as a further 5GWh set 6 (add) at the site in energy storage. 7 (operate) by China’s Three Gorges Renewables Group, construction is expected to begin in September 2024 and come online by June 2027. Plans for the new facility 8 (announce) just weeks after a 5GW complex was switched on in the north-west province of Xinjiang, becoming the 9 (big) operational solar plant in the world.Covering 200,000 acres in a desert region, the vast solar farm takes up the same space 10 New York City.China has installed more solar power capacity than any other country, with more than 600 GW connected to the grid as of November 2023.中国嫦娥六号月球探测器创造历史，成功带回月球背面首份样本阅读下面短文，在空白处填入1个适当单词或括号内单词的正确形式。