Proceedings of the 2007 Winter Simulation Conference
印度月球初航航天器即将发射
图4 EKF 仿真结果Fig.4 Monte Car lo simula tion r esults o fEKF图5 UKF 仿真结果Fig.5 Monte Car lo simulat ion r esults of UKF 参考文献[1] 罗建军,袁建平.利用GP S 进行航天器姿态确定的EKF 方法[J ].航天控制,1999,17(2):25229.[2] J UL IER S J ,U HL MAN J K ,HU GH F.A newmethod for the nonlinear tra nsfo rmation of means and cova riance s in filter s a nd e stimation [J ].IEEE Trans 2actions on Automatic Cont rol ,2000,45(3):4772482.[3] J UL IER S J ,U HLMAN J K .Unscente d f iltering andnonlinear estimation [J ].Proceedings of the I EEE ,2004,92(3):4012422.[4] MA G F ,J IANG X Y.Unsce nted K alman filte r fo rspacecraft at titude e stima tio n and calibration usingmagnetometer mea surement s [J ].G ua ngzhou :Pro 2ceedings of the 4th Con f ere nce on Machine Learing and Cyber netic s ,2005.[5] 张红梅,邓正隆,高玉凯.U KF 在基于修正罗得里格参数的飞行器姿态确定中的应用[J ].宇航学报,2005,26(2):1642167.[6] SHARMA R S ,TEWAR I A T.Optimal nonlineart racking of spacecraft attitude maneuver s [J ].I EEE Transactions on Control Systems Techn ology ,2004,12(5):6772682.[7] 张贵明,黄顺吉.SAR 卫星GPS 轨道和姿态测量技术研究[D ].电子科技大学博士学位论文,2001.印度月球初航航天器即将发射印度太空研究组织的增强型极轨卫星运载火箭(PSLV)的装配已经开始,准备在今年9月从印度东海岸Sati sh Dhawan 航天中心发射印度的月球初航(Chandaryaan 21)任务。
大学生信息检索习题以及答案
《大学生信息检索概论》模拟试题一、填空题1、文献的级次分为零次文献、一次文献、二次文献、三次文献2、《中图法》有五个基本部类,分别是马克思主义、列宁主义、毛泽东思想_、哲学;社会科学;自然科学和综合性图书,在此基础上又划分为_22_个大类。
3、按内容可将计算机检索系统的数据库类型分为:文献书目型数据库、事实型数据库、数值型数据库和全文型数据库。
4、我国标准可分为国家标准、部标准和企业标准三大类。
5、在实际检索中,文献的检索方法主要有:直查法、追溯法、工具法和综合法。
6、国际标准化组织简称:ISO 、本标准每 5 年修订一次二、选择题1、如果需要检索某位作者的文献被引用的情况,应该使用( C )检索。
A.分类索引B.作者索引C.引文索引 D.主题索引2、利用图书馆的据库检索期刊论文时,可供选择的中文数据库是( D )。
A.超星数字图书馆 B.万方学位论文 C.国研网 D.维普科技期刊 E.高校财经库3、如果检索有关多媒体网络传播方面的文献,检索式为(A D)。
A.多媒体and 网络传播 B.多媒体+网络传播 C.多媒体or 网络传播D.多媒体*网络传播4、如果对某个课题进行主题检索时,可选择的检索字段有( A D E )。
A.关键词 B.作者 C.刊名 D.题名 E.文摘5、二次文献又称检索工具,包括:( A C D )。
A.书目B.百科C.索引D.文摘E.统计数据三、名词解释题1、文献用文字、图形、符号、声频、视频等技术手段记录人类知识的一种载体,或理解为固化在一定物质载体上的知识。
也可以理解为古今一切社会史料的总称。
2、体系分类语言体系语言是以科学分类为基础,运用概念的划分与概括的逻辑方法,形成一个概念等级体系,按知识门类的逻辑次序,按照从总到分,从一般到具体,从低级到高级,从简单到复杂的原则进行概念的综分,层层划分,累累隶属,逐步展开而形成的一个等级体系。
3、引文语言引文语言是根据文献所附参考或引用文献的特征进行检索的语言。
NAM和SAM逐月及逐日指数的定义说明
NAM 和SAM 逐月及逐日指数的定义说明2003年,Li 和 Wang (2003)提出了“大气环状活动带”的新概念,对“大气活动中心”概念进行了推广。
他们指出中高纬大气环流变率中具有相似变动性的状态在空间上呈现出纬圈带状分布,称为“大气环状活动带”。
而中纬度和包括极区的高纬度之间的大气质量变化存在一种纬向对称的、半球尺度的南北“跷跷板”结构,并且这种“跷跷板”结构在南半球和北半球均存在,分别被称为北半球环状模(Northern Hemisphere Annular Mode ,简称NAM )和南半球环状模(Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode ,简称SAM )。
北半球环状模也被称为北极涛动(Arctic Oscillation ,简称AO ),而南半球环状模也被称为南极涛动(Antarctic Oscillation ,简称AAO )。
基于大气环状活动带这一概念,Li 和Wang (2003)采用中、高纬度地区具有最大负相关的两个环状活动带之间的全年标准化海平面气压差,定义了新的环状模指数。
北半球环状模指数(NAMI )定义为35︒N 与65︒N 之间标准化气压差,具体如下:3565ˆˆN NNAMI P P ︒︒=- 其中,P 为纬向平均海平面气压,35ˆNP ︒和65ˆN P ︒分别为35︒N 和65︒N 的标准化海平面气压异常。
n 年m 月(或日)的标准化的海平面气压异常ˆP为 ,,ˆm n m n PP P S '= 其中,mn P '为扣除了为扣除了年循环的纬向平均海平面气压异常,年循环由基准时段1958-2000年(43年)的资料计算得到。
P S 为,mn P '序列在基准时段上的总均方差为P S =对于逐月NAMI ,nt 为12,代表一年中的12个月;而逐日NAMI 中,nt 为365或366,代表一年中的所有天。
南半球环状模指数(SAMI )的定义与北半球相似,取为40︒S 与70︒S 之间的标准化气压差,具体定义为:4070ˆˆS S SAMI P P ︒︒=-其中公式符号的含义同NAMI 的定义,区别为计算在40︒S 和70︒S 上。
振动式微陀螺正交误差自补偿方法
振动式微陀螺正交误差自补偿方法刘学;陈志华;肖定邦;吴学忠;苏剑彬;侯占强;贺琨【摘要】微陀螺正交误差会影响陀螺的零偏稳定性,为了提高微陀螺的性能,必须减小正交误差.针对正交误差处理中存在的问题,推导了包含交叉耦合误差效应的驱动模态和检测模态的动力学方程,研究了交叉耦合误差引起的正交误差表达式,提出了一种正交误差闭环控制自补偿方法.通过将经正交误差幅值调幅控制的驱动位移信号闭环反馈作用到检测模态的输出,实现正交误差的自补偿.制作PCB电路测试了微陀螺的性能.正交误差自补偿后微陀螺零偏输出均值从778 mV减小到了2 mV,零偏稳定性从75°/h提高到了34.5°/h.实验结果表明,此方法是可行的.%The quadrature error results in poor zero bias stability,to improve the performance of the micro-gyroscope the quadrature error must be reduced. The kinetic equation contains the cross-coupling error in drive-mode and sense-mode were introduced, the expressions of the quadrature error induced by the cross-coupling were analyzed. A simple, yet effective approach to suppress the quadrature error was presented. The amplitude of the quadrature error had been picked up to amplitude modulate the displacement of the drive-mode, then it is injected into the output of the sense-mode, thus the quadratura error can be self-compensated. Experimental results show that the proposed solution decreases the zero bias output from 784 mV to 2 mV and increases the stability of zero bias from 75?h to 34. 5?h.【期刊名称】《传感技术学报》【年(卷),期】2012(025)009【总页数】5页(P1221-1225)【关键词】微机电系统;正交误差;自补偿;振动式微陀螺;交叉耦合【作者】刘学;陈志华;肖定邦;吴学忠;苏剑彬;侯占强;贺琨【作者单位】国防科学技术大学机电工程与自动化学院,长沙410073;国防科学技术大学机电工程与自动化学院,长沙410073;国防科学技术大学机电工程与自动化学院,长沙410073;国防科学技术大学机电工程与自动化学院,长沙410073;国防科学技术大学机电工程与自动化学院,长沙410073;国防科学技术大学机电工程与自动化学院,长沙410073;国防科学技术大学机电工程与自动化学院,长沙410073【正文语种】中文【中图分类】TN492微陀螺具有体积小、重量轻、成本低,易于实现批量生产等特点,在惯性制导系统中具有广泛应用,是惯性传感器发展的热点方向之一。
Simulation_model_design
Declarative Models
These models permit dynamics to be encoded as stateto-state or event-to-event transitions. The idea behind declarative modeling is to focus on the structure of state (or event) from one time period t o the next, while de-emphasizing functions or constraints which define the transition. Models such as finite state automata (Hopcroft and Ullman 1979), Markov models, event graphs (Schruben 1983) and temporal logic models (Moszkowski 1986) fall into the declarative category. Declarative models are state-based (FSAs), event-based (event graphs) or a hybrid (Petri nets (Peterson 1981)).
2.1
Conceptual Models
Conceptual models represent the first phase in any modeling endeavor. All static and dynamic knowledge about the physical system must be encoded in some form which allows specification of interaction without necessarily specifying the dynamics in quantitative terms. Semantic networks (Woods 1975) present one way of encoding conceptual semantics; however, we have chosen object-oriented design networks (Booch 1991; Rumbaugh, Blaha, Premerlani, Frederick, and
数学杂志SCI分区
2 2 2 2 2 2 2
数学 0196-6774数学 0178-4617数学 0027-3171 0964-1998 数学 0012-9593 1061-8600 0021-7824 1050-5164 数学 数学 数学 数学
2 2 2 2 2 2
数学 1017-0405数学 0294-1449 数学 0218-2025 数学
数学 0029-599X数学 0012-7094数学 0075-4102 数学
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIFURCATION AND CHAOS AMERICAN JOURNAL OF AM J MATH MATHEMATICS ANNALS OF PROBABILITY ANN PROBAB ADVANCES IN MATHEMATICS ADV MATH SIAM JOURNAL ON SIAM J MATH ANAL MATHEMATICAL ANALYSIS STOCHASTIC PROCESSES AND STOCH PROC APPL THEIR APPLICATIONS RISK ANALYSIS RISK ANAL INVERSE PROBLEMS INVERSE PROBL AMERICAN STATISTICIAN AM STAT JOURNAL OF BUSINESS & J BUS ECON STAT ECONOMIC STATISTICS STRUCTURAL EQUATION STRUCT EQU MODELING-A MODELING MULTIDISCIPLINARY JOURNAL SIAM JOURNAL ON MATRIX SIAM J MATRIX ANALYSIS AND APPLICATIONS ANAL A PROBABILITY THEORY AND PROBAB THEORY REL RELATED FIELDS MEMOIRS OF THE AMERICAN MEM AM MATH SOC MATHEMATICAL SOCIETY JOURNAL OF ALGORITHMS J ALGORITHM ALGORITHMICA ALGORITHMICA MULTIVARIATE BEHAVIORAL MULTIVAR BEHAV RESEARCH RES JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL J ROY STAT SOC A STATISTICAL SOCIETY SERIES STA A-STATISTICS IN SOCIETY ANNALES SCIENTIFIQUES DE L ANN SCI ECOLE ECOLE NORMALE SUPERIEURE NORM S JOURNAL OF COMPUTATIONAL J COMPUT GRAPH AND GRAPHICAL STATISTICS STAT JOURNAL DE MATHEMATIQUES J MATH PURE APPL PURES ET APPLIQUEES ANNALS OF APPLIED ANN APPL PROBAB PROBABILITY STATISTICA SINICA STAT SINICA ANNALES DE L INSTITUT ANN I H POINCAREHENRI POINCARE-ANALYSE NON AN LINEAIRE MATHEMATICAL MODELS & MATH MOD METH METHODS IN APPLIED APPL S SCIENCES INT J BIFURCAT CHAOS
具有变化潜伏期的结核病模型稳定性分析
具有变化潜伏期的结核病模型稳定性分析霍海峰;党帅军【摘要】A tuberculosis model with variable latent period was studied and the basic reproduction number R0 was obtained by using regeneration matrix. There would be a disease-free equilibrium and it was globally asymptotically stable when R0≤1. Then, if R0>1, there would be only a unique endemic equilibrium,which was also globally, asymptotically stable.%研究一类具有变化潜伏期的结核病模型,利用再生矩阵方法,得到基本再生数R0,进一步得到当R0≤1时,系统存在无病平衡点,且是全局渐近稳定的,当R0>1时,系统存在唯一的地方病平衡点,且是全局渐近稳定的.【期刊名称】《兰州理工大学学报》【年(卷),期】2011(037)003【总页数】5页(P133-137)【关键词】结核病;变化潜伏期;平衡点;全局渐近稳定【作者】霍海峰;党帅军【作者单位】兰州理工大学理学院,甘肃兰州,730050;兰州理工大学理学院,甘肃兰州,730050【正文语种】中文【中图分类】O175.1结核病是通过空气传播的一种慢性疾病[1],它由结核杆菌感染引起,又称为“痨病”.结核病一般通过空气传播,当患者咳嗽、打喷嚏、说话或吐痰时,他们把结核杆菌排放到空气中,只需要吸入少量杆菌就可造成感染,有些感染结核杆菌的人马上患病,也就是说这些人不经过潜伏期直接患结核病,成为结核病病人[1],但是有的人由于免疫系统可杀死或者“隔离”结核杆菌,就进入了潜伏期.潜伏期也是因人而异,有些感染者潜伏期较短,大概在两年之内,有些感染者潜伏期长达几十年,还有一部分感染者甚至一生都处在潜伏期,而且不发病.文献[2]研究具有阶段结构的结核病模型,其中将潜伏期分成前期和后期两个阶段进行研究.文献[3]将潜伏期分成短潜伏期和长潜伏期两类,与文献[2]不同的是这里的两个潜伏期之间没有联系,感染者只能进入短潜伏期或者长潜伏期.本文在文献[3]中模型的基础上进行改进,考虑感染者不经过潜伏期直接患病的情况,并研究改进模型中无病平衡点和地方病平衡点的全局渐近稳定性,其他相关文献可参见文献[4,5].1 模型建立根据流行病动力学仓室建模思想,本文把总人群分成5类:S(t)表示t时刻易感者的数量,E 1(t)表示t时刻短潜伏期感染者的数量,E 2(t)表示t时刻长潜伏期感染者的数量,I(t)表示t时刻染病者的数量,R(t)表示t时刻治愈者的数量.设N(t)表示t时刻的人口总数,所以N(t)=S(t)+E 1(t)+E 2(t)+I(t)+R(t).假设所有易感者与染病者进行有效接触后成为短潜伏期感染者,长潜伏期感染者或者直接成为染病者,可得具有变化潜伏期的结核病传播机制如图1所示.相应的结核病动力学模型为式中:Λ表示人口的自然补充率,μ表示人口的自然死亡率,d表示人口的因病死亡率,β表示感染率,k1表示短潜伏期感染者转化成染病者的速度,k2表示长潜伏期感染者转化成染病者的速度,r表示染病者的治愈率,p1,p2,p3表示易感者和染病者有效接触后分别转化成短潜伏期感染者,长潜伏期感染者,染病者的比例,p1+p2+p3=1,并且所有参数非负.图1 具有变化潜伏期的结核病传播机制图Fig.1 Transfer mechanism diagramof tuberculosis with variable latent period2 无病平衡点的全局渐近稳定性3 地方病平衡点的全局渐近稳定性4 数值模拟根据国家统计局发布的《中华人民共和国2009年国民经济和社会发展统计公报》,卫生部公布的《中国结核病防治社会评价结果》,以及参考文献[9]中的相关数据,可以确定表1中部分参数的参数值.当β=0.001时,R0<1,图2给出此时具有不同初值的结核病患者的时间曲线,当β=1时,R0>1,图3给出此时具有不同初值的结核病患者的时间曲线.表1 系统(5)中参数的含义和参数值Tab.1 Implication and magnitude of parameters in system (5)参数含义参数值数据来源Λ人口自然补充率 2/年参考文献[9]μ人口自然死亡率 0.007 08 《中华人民共和国2009年国民经济和社会发展统计公报》d结核病死亡率 0.022 7 参考文献[9]r结核病治愈率0.916 《中国结核病防治社会评价结果》β感染率可变估计k1 短潜伏期感染者转化成结核病患者的速度 0.5 估计k2 长潜伏期感染者转化成结核病患者的速度 0.5 估计p1 易感者感染结核杆菌后进入短潜伏期的比例 0.3 估计p2 易感者感染结核杆菌后进入长潜伏期的比例 0.5 估计p3 易感者感染结核杆菌后直接患病的比例 0.2估计图2 当β=0.001时,R0<1,患病人数I(t)随时间的变化Fig.2 Variation of I (t)with time forβ=0.001,or R0<1图3 当β=1时,R0>1,患病人数I(t)随时间的变化Fig.3 Variation of I(t)with time forβ=1,or R0>1从图2和图3的数值模拟结果可以得出:无论初值取多少,随着时间的增加,患病人数I(t)分别趋向于0和一个固定值,这就说明当R 0≤1时,无病平衡点p 0在Ω内是全局渐近稳定的,当R 0>1时,地方病平衡点p*在Ω内是全局渐近稳定的.5 结论本文将所有易感者与染病者进行有效接触后,分成短潜伏期感染者,长潜伏期感染者或者直接成为染病者三类,研究具有变化潜伏期的结核病模型,通过构造Liapunov函数,利用LaSalle不变集原理,证明平衡点的全局稳定性.当R 0≤1时,无病平衡点p 0全局渐近稳定,这就意味着结核病被根除了,当R0>1时,地方病平衡点p*全局渐近稳定,这意味着结核病将成为地方病而一直存在.致谢:本文得到教育部科学技术研究重点项目(209131)、教育部留学回国人员科研启动基金、甘肃省高校研究生导师基金(0803-01)、人力资源和社会保障部留学人员科技活动项目择优资助、兰州理工大学优秀青年教师培养计划(Q200703)及博士启动基金的资助,在此表示感谢.参考文献:[1] CASTILL CHAVEZ C,SONG B J.Dynamical models of tuber-culosis and their applications[J].Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering,2004,1(2):361-404.[2] ZIV E,DALEY C L,BLOWER S M.Early therapy for latent tuberculosis infection[J].American Journal of Epidemiology,2001,153:381-385. [3] FENG W Y,GAO F.Proceedings of the SNPD 2007 [C].Qingdao:IEEE Computer Society,2007:422-425.[4]霍海峰,佘玉星,孟新友.一类公共健康教育影响下的戒烟模型的稳定性[J].兰州理工大学学报,2010,36(3):135-138.[5]霍海峰,付强,孙小科,等.一类时滞周期捕食-食饵模型的持久性[J].兰州理工大学学报,2009,35(3):134-138.[6] VAN DEN DRIESSCHE P,WATMOUGH J.Reproduction numbers and sub-threshold endemic equilibria for compartmental models of disease transmission[J].Mathematical Biosciences,2002,180:29-48.[7] LASALLE J P.The stability of dynamical systems[M].Philadelphia:Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics,1976.[8] LASALLE J P.Stability theory for ordinary differential equations [J].Differential Equations,1968,41:57-65.[9] BOWONG S,TEWA J J.Mathematical analysis of a tuberculosis model with differential infectivity [J].Commun Nonlinear Sci Numer Simulat,2009,14:4010-4021.。
超级计算机
¾ 超级计算机...............................................................................................................................1 超级计算环境 2007 年 3 季度运行情况简报 .........................................................................1
深腾6800
● 共197名用户,3季度增加用户6名。 ● 有134名用户利用LSF提交作业,共完成.51000多个作业,用户作业平均规模为5.9个CPU,累计 使用机时112万CPU小时(按Walltime计算)。 ● 2007年3季度,深腾6800的磁盘阵列系统与QsNet网络系统先后发生故障,导致深腾6800的平均 整体使用率有所下降,为83.5%(按Walltime计算),平均CPU利用率69.1%(按CPUtime计算)。CPUtim e与Walltime之比平均为82.7%。 ● 2007年3季度,作业平均等待时间为23.3小时。 ● 已完成作业按规模分布情况:串行作业数量占62.6%,4处理器节点内并行作业数量占21.1%。 而根据作业使用的CPU小时计算,占用机时最多的并行作业规模分别为16处理器、33-63处理器、32处理 器、64处理器,其比例分别为21.8%,18.1%,17.9%和12.4%,串行作业仅使用总机时的2.1%,表明深腾6 800的计算机时还是主要用于较大规模的并行作业计算。
1. Introduction ...................................................................................................................2
基于冬小麦农业气候分区的WOFOST模型参数标定
Vol. 32 , No. 1January 2021第32卷第1期2021年1月应用气象学报JOURNAL OF APPLIED METEOROLOGICAL SCIENCE 李颖,赵国强,陈怀亮,等*基于冬小麦农业气候分区的WOFOST 模型参数标定*应用气象学报,2021,32(1):38-51DOI : 10. 11898/1001-7313. 20210104基于冬小麦农业气候分区的WOFOST 模型参数标定李 颖12 赵国强1)3)*陈怀亮1)4)余卫东12 苏 伟5!程耀达3°(中国气象局•河南省农业气象保障与应用技术重点实验室,郑州450003)2)(河南省气象科学研究所,郑州450003)3)(河南省气象局,郑州450003) 4)(哈尔滨市气象局,哈尔滨150028)5)(中国农业大学土地科学与技术学院,北京100083) 3)(郑州大学生态与环境学院,郑州450001)摘 要以1981-2010年河南省113个气象观测站影响冬小麦生长及产量形成的主要气象因素为区划指标,利用K 均值聚类算法,将河南省划分为5个农业气候生态区(根据2013-2017年地面农业气象观测数据,利用Sobol 全 局敏感性分析方法,各分区选择总敏感指数大于0.01的作物参数,得到9种敏感参数(以产量与叶面积指数为代 价函数,采用差分进化马尔科夫链蒙特卡洛方法对敏感参数进行分区标定,并使用2018-2019年观测数据进行验证(结果表明:分区进行参数标定时,叶面积指数动态模拟精度和产量模拟精度均显著优于使用默认参数或整个 研究区使用同一套优化参数时的精度,其中,使用分区调参后验平均值模拟关键生育期叶面积指数的总均方根误 差为0.655,其模拟产量的均方根误差为672.016 kg • hm 2(该方法将农业气候学知识与差分进化马尔科夫链蒙 特卡洛优化算法相结合,通过合理、高效地分区域标定作物模型参数,可为作物模型区域应用和模型参数调整优化提供科学依据(关键词:K 均值聚类;农业气候区划;全局敏感性分析;参数标定引言作物生长模型起步于20世纪60年代,其实质是用数学方法表达作物生长过程[1]。
Proceedings of the 1998 Winter Simulation Conference
Proceedings of the 1998 Winter Simulation ConferenceD.J. Medeiros,E.F. Watson, J.S. Carson and M.S. Manivannan, eds.SIMULATION OF MANUFACTURING SYSTEMSAverill M. LawMichael G. McComasAverill M. Law & Associates, Inc.P.O. Box 40996Tucson, Arizona 85717, U.S.A.ABSTRACTThis paper discusses how simulation is used to design new manufacturing systems and to improve the performance of existing ones. Topics to be discussed include: manufacturing issues addressed by simulation, simulation software for manufacturing applications, techniques for building valid and credible models, and statistical considerations. A comprehensive example will be given in the conference presentation.1 INTRODUCTIONOne of the largest application areas for simulation modeling is that of manufacturing systems, with the first uses dating back to at least the early 1960’s. In this paper we present an overview of the use of simulation in the design and analysis of manufacturing systems. Detailed discussions of simulation, in general, may be found in Banks, Carson, and Nelson (1996) and Law and Kelton (1991). A practical discussion of the steps in a sound simulation study is given in Law and McComas (1990). This paper is a synopsis of a three-day short course with the same title as this paper, which the first author has given more than fifty times since 1985.2MANUFACTURING ISSUESADDRESSED BY SIMULATIONThe following are some of the specific issues that simulation is used to address in manufacturing:The need for and the quantity of equipment and personnel •Number, type, and layout of machines for a particular objective•Requirements for transporters, conveyors, and other support equipment (e.g., pallets and fixtures)•Location and size of inventory buffers •Evaluation of a change in product volume or mix •Evaluation of the effect of a new piece of equipment on an existing manufacturing system•Evaluation of capital investments•Labor-requirements planning•Number of shiftsPerformance evaluation•Throughput analysis•Time-in-system analysis•Bottleneck analysisEvaluation of operational procedures•Production scheduling•Inventory policies•Control strategies [e.g., for an automated guided vehicle system (AGVS)]•Reliability analysis (e.g., effect of preventive maintenance)•Quality-control policiesThe following are some of performance measures commonly estimated by simulation:•Throughput•Time in system for parts•Times parts spend in queues•Queue sizes•Timeliness of deliveries•Utilization of equipment or personnel3SIMULATION SOFTWARE FORMANUFACTURING APPLICATIONSMost organizations that simulate manufacturing or material-handling systems use a commercial simulation software product, rather than a general-purpose programming language (e.g., C). Furthermore, the two most common criteria for selecting simulation software are modeling flexibility (ability to model any system regardless of its complexity or uniqueness) and ease of use.Law and McComasWe now define the major types of simulation software for manufacturing. A simulation language is a software package that is general in nature (in terms of the applications it can address) and where model development is done by “programming.” Traditionally, programming meant the development of a simulation model by writing code, but in recent years there has been a strong movement toward simulation languages that employ a graphical model-building approach. Example of simulation languages are Arena, AweSim!, Extend, GPSS/H, Micro Saint, MODSIM III, SES/workbench, SIMPLE++, SIMSCRIPT II.5, SIMUL8, and SLX. The major advantage of a good simulation language is modeling flexibility, whereas the major disadvantage is that programming expertise is required.A manufacturing-oriented simulation language is one where the modeling constructs are specifically oriented toward manufacturing or material handling. Examples of such software are AutoMod and Quest. One advantage of this type of software is that programming time may be reduced (compared to a simulation language) due to powerful constructs for such things as conveyors and AGVS.In the last five to ten years, there has been considerable interest in having simulation software that is easier to use, which largely means reducing the amount of programming required to build a model. This has given rise to what we call a manufacturing-oriented simulator, which is a simulation package designed to model a manufacturing system in a specific class of systems. This type of software has two main characteristics:•Orientation is toward manufacturing•Little or no programming is required to build a model (relative to simulation languages)Examples of simulators are FACTOR/AIM, ProModel, Taylor II, and WITNESS. A simulation model is developed using a simulator by using graphics (e.g., dragging and dropping icons), by selecting items from menus with a mouse, and by filling in dialog boxes. The major advantage of a simulator is that if it is applicable to your problem, then the amount of time required to develop (“program”) the model may be reduced considerably. The major disadvantage of simulators is that they are not as flexible as simulation languages, since they do not allow full-blown programming as in simulation languages (see below for further discussion).Because a simulator that does not allow programming in any shape or form just cannot be as flexible as a simulation language, the vendors of the major manufacturing-oriented simulators have introduced programming into their software in one or both of the following ways:•The ability to use “programming-like” constructs (e.g., setting values for attributes or global variables, if-then-else logic, etc.) at certain selected points in the model-building process•The ability to call external routines written in a general-purpose programming language at certain selected points in the model-building process Simulators with either or both of the above programming options are still not, in general, as flexible as a good simulation language where anything can be programmed from scratch. For example, manufacturing simulators have such fundamental modeling constructs as machines, parts, and conveyors. Since in the real world conveyors can come in a myriad of forms, there is a good chance that none of the built-in conveyor options is completely correct. Furthermore, because of the fundamental nature of the conveyor modeling construct, it may not be possible to change their logic in a substantive manner.The distinction between simulation languages and simulators has become less clear in recent years. Languages have gone to graphical user interfaces to increase ease of use and simulators have added some programming capabilities to increase modeling flexibility. However, we can still say that a simulation language is general in nature and uses programming (syntactical or graphical) to develop a model. Simulators, on the other hand, are application specific (for the most part) and, perhaps, at most twenty percent of the model is developed using some form of programming. A much more detailed discussion of the topics in this section is given in Law (1998).4 DEVELOPING VALID AND CREDIBLESIMULATION MODELSA simulation model is a surrogate for actually experimenting with a manufacturing system, which is often infeasible or not cost-effective. Thus, it is important for a simulation analyst to determine whether the simulation model is an accurate representation of the system being studied, i.e., whether the model is valid. It is also important for the model to be credible; otherwise, the results may never be used in the decision-making process, even if the model is “valid.”The following are some important ideas/techniques for deciding the appropriate level of model detail (one of the most difficult issues when modeling a complex system), for validating a simulation model, and for developing a model with high credibility:•State definitively the issues to be addressed and the performance measures for evaluating a system design at the beginning of the study.•Collect information on the system layout and operating procedures based on conversations with“subject-matter experts” (SME).Simulation of Manufacturing Systems•Delineate all information and data summaries in an “assumptions document,” which becomes the major documentation for the model.•Interact with the manager (or decision-maker) on a regular basis to make sure that the correct problem is being solved and to increase model credibility.•Perform a structured walk-through (before any programming is performed) of the conceptual simulation model as embodied in the assumptions document before an audience of SME, managers, etc.•Use sensitivity analyses [see Law and Kelton (1991)] to determine important model factors, which have to be modeled carefully.•Simulate the existing manufacturing system (if there is one) and compare model performance measures (e.g., throughput and average time in system) to the comparable measures from the actual system.5STATISTICAL ISSUES IN SIMULATING MANUFACTURING SYSTEMSSince random samples from input probability distributions “drive” a simulation model of a manufacturing system through time, basic simulation output data (e.g., times in system of parts) or an estimated performance measure computed from them (e.g., average time in system from the entire simulation run) are also random. Therefore, it is important to model system randomness correctly and also to design and analyze simulation experiments in a proper manner. These topics are briefly discussed in this section.5.1 Modeling System RandomnessThe following are some sources of randomness in simulated manufacturing systems:•Arrivals of orders, parts, or raw materials •Processing, assembly, or inspection times •Machine times to failure•Machine repair times•Loading/unloading times•Setup timesIn general, each source of system randomness needs to be modeled by an appropriate probability distribution, not what is perceived to be the mean value. Note that sources of randomness encountered in practice are rarely normally distributed. A detailed discussion of simulation input modeling is given in Chapter 6 of Law and Kelton (1991).5.2Design and Analysis of Simulation Experiments Because of the random nature of simulation input, a simulation run produces a statistical estimate of the (true) performance measure not the measure itself. In order for an estimate to be statistically precise (have a small variance)and free of bias, the analyst must specify for each system design of interest appropriate choices for the following:•Length of each simulation run•Number of independent simulation runs•Length of the warmup period, if one is appropriate We recommend always making at least three to five independent runs for each system design, and using the average of the estimated performance measures from the individual runs as the overall estimate of the performance measure. (Independent runs means using different random numbers for each run, starting each run in the same initial state, and resetting the model’s statistical counters back to “zero” at the beginning of each run.) This overall estimate should be more statistically precise than the estimated performance measure from one run. Note that independent runs (as compared to one very long run) are required to obtain legitimate and simple variance estimates and confidence intervals.For most simulation studies of manufacturing systems, we are interested in the long-run (or steady-state) behavior of the system, i.e., its behavior when operating in a “normal” manner. On the other hand, simulations of these kinds of systems generally begin with the system in an empty and idle state. This results in the output data from the beginning of the simulation run not being representative of the desired “normal” behavior of the system. Therefore, simulations are often run for a certain amount of time, the warmup period, before the output data are actually used to estimate the desired performance measure. Use of the warmup-period data would bias the estimated performance measure.A comprehensive treatment of simulation output-data analysis can be found in Chapter 9 of Law and Kelton (1991).6SIMULATION ANALYSIS OF AMANUFACTURING SYSTEMIn the actual conference presentation, we will give a detailed analysis of a manufacturing system. We will address the following issues:•Evaluating different machine and forklift-truck resource levels•Sizing of work-in-process buffers•Determining the impact of random machine downtimes•Determining the effect of different logic for the forklift trucksREFERENCESBanks, J., J. S. Carson, and B. L. Nelson. 1996. Discrete-event system simulation. 2d ed. Upper Saddle River,New Jersey: Prentice-Hall.Law and McComas Law, A. M. 1998. How to select simulation software.Tucson, Arizona: Averill M. Law & Associates.Law, A. M., and W. D. Kelton. 1991. Simulation modeling and analysis. 2d ed. New York: McGraw-Hill.Law, A. M., and M. G. McComas. Secrets of successful simulation studies. Industrial Engineering 22: 47-48,51-53, 72.AUTHOR BIOGRAPHIESAVERILL M. LAW is President of Averill M. Law & Associates, Inc. (Tucson, Arizona), a company specializingin simulation consulting, training, and software. He hasbeen a simulation consultant to more than 100 organizations,including General Motors, IBM, AT&T, General Electric, Nabisco, Xerox, NASA, the Air Force, the Army, and theNavy. He has presented more than 275 simulation shortcourses in 17 countries, and delivered more than 100 talkson simulation modeling at technical conferences.He is the author (or coauthor) of three books and morethan 35 papers on simulation, manufacturing, communications, operations research, and statistics,including the textbook Simulation Modeling and Analysisthat is used by more than 50,000 people worldwide. Hisseries of papers on the simulation of manufacturingsystems won the 1988 Institute of Industrial Engineers' best publication award. He is the codeveloper of the ExpertFitsoftware package for selecting simulation input probability distributions, and he has developed several simulation videotapes. Dr. Law wrote a regular column on simulationfor Industrial Engineering magazine from 1990 through1991.He has been a tenured faculty member and has taught simulation at the University of Wisconsin and the University of Arizona. Dr. Law has a Ph.D. in industrial engineering and operations research from the University ofCalifornia at Berkeley.MICHAEL G. MCCOMAS is Vice President for Consulting Services of Averill M. Law & Associates, Inc.He has considerable simulation modeling experience in such manufacturing industries as food processing, paper products, microcomputers, aerospace materials, medical components,electronic components, pet-care products, and basic metal processing. He is also the coauthor of seven publishedpapers on simulation. His educational background includesan M.S. in systems and industrial engineering from the University of Arizona.。
北大考研-工学院研究生导师简介-宋洁
爱考机构-北大考研-工学院研究生导师简介-宋洁宋洁目前任职:北京大学工学院工业工程及管理系特聘研究员研究领域:复杂系统优化建模与运作管理研究教育经历:09.2006–06.2010工业工程系工学博士清华大学09.2007-09.2008工业与系统工程学院联合培养博士美国佐治亚理工学院09.2004-07.2006工业工程系工学硕士清华大学09.2000-07.2004数学科学学院金融数学系理学学士北京大学获得荣誉:国家建设高水平大学公派留学奖学金北京市科委优秀博士生论文一等奖金资助清华大学综合一等奖学金清华大学优秀共产党员清华大学优秀学生干部北京大学优秀学生干部欧莱雅校园科学之星奖近期主要论文:期刊论文:1.JieSong,WeiweiChen,LongfeiWang.“AControlStudyofModelingPatientsFlowCongestioninUrbanHealthcareSystem”.InternationalJou rnalofServicesOperationsandInformatics.(Accepted)2.TaoWu,JieSong,LeyuanShi.“AnMIP-basedIntervalHeuristicfortheCapacitatedMulti-levelLot-sizingProblemwithSetupTimes.”AnnualsofOperationsResearch.Onlinefirst,page1-16,2011.DOI:10.1007/s10479-011-1026-93.TaoWu,JieSong,LeyuanShi.“MixedIntegerProgramminginProductionPlanningwithBackloggingandSetupCarryover:Modeling andAlgorithms”.DiscreteEventDynamicSystems:TheoryandApplications.(Inpress)4.WeiweiChen,JieSong,LeyuanShi.“DataMining-BasedDispatchingSystemforSolvingtheLocalPickupandDelivery.”AnnualsofOperationsResearch.(Accepted)5.JieSong,BinfengLi,SuWu.“Areviewofstochasticmodelingofpatientflowmanagement”.JournalofHospitalManagement.2010, 30(3):31-34.6.JieSong,BinfengLi,XunzhangPan,etc.“Patientflowsimulationmodelingandanalysisinurbanhealthcaredeliverysystem”.JournalofHospital Management.2009,29(11):16-19.7.JieSong,BinfengliYaoYang,SuWu.“ThelocationproblemofcommunityhealthclinicincitybasedonLinearProgramming”.JournalofHealt hResources.2009,12(2):86-898.JieSong,BinfengLi,YaoYang,SuWu.“Theaccessibilityofcommunityhealthcareservicenetworkplanning.”JournalofTsinghuaUniversity.2010,50(2):321-324.图书章节:JieSong,BinfengLi,SuWu.“Patientflowsimulationmodelingandanalysisinurbanhealthcaredeliverysystem.”TheHealthcareManagementandpolicyresearchinCapital.ISBN:9787200088908BeijingYanshanPres s,2010会议论文:1.WeiweiChen,JieSong,LeyuanShi.“OptimizationLocalPickupandDeliverywithuncertainloads”.Proceedingsofthe2011WinterSimulat ionConference,Phoenix,20112.MengyuGuo,BinfengLi,SuWu,JieSong.etc“EffectivenessofReferralIncentivePolicy:ExploringUsingQueuingNetworkModelwithBlocking”. Proceedingsofthe8thInternationalConferenceonServiceSystemsandServiceManagement,June25-27, 2011,Tianjing3.JieSong,BinfengLi,HuiTao,SuWu.“SimulationModelstoImprovePatientFlowinaHierarchicalHealthCareDeliverySystem”.Proceedin gsofThe35thOperationalResearchAppliedtoHealthServices.July12-17,2009,Leuven,Belgium4.JieSong,BinfengLi,SuWu,PaulGriffin.“ImprovingHealthCareAccessbyoptimizingtheallocationnetworkofcommunityHealthCenters”.Pr oceedingsofIEEESOLI2008Oct12-15,2008,Beijing.5.JieSong,BinfengLi,HuiTao,SuWu.“Thelocationproblemofcommunityhealthcareclinic”.ProceedingsofSHEWC’2007,July7-9,SaoPaulo,Brazil学术兼职:1.ProgramCommittee:The23rdInternationalConferenceonModelingandSimulation2.ProgramCo-Chair:2013IEEEInternationalConferenceonAutomationScienceandEngineering3.SessionChair:44thCIRPConferenceonManufacturingSystems4.Reviewer:IEEETransactionsonAutomaticControl5.Reviewer:The30thChineseControlConference6.IEEEmemberRMSmember联系方式:Email:。
SCI 2007收录中国期刊一览
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热空气作用下FM-2D_橡胶材料老化本构模型研究
装备环境工程第20卷第12期·78·EQUIPMENT ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING2023年12月热空气作用下FM-2D橡胶材料老化本构模型研究陈杰1,李彪1*,唐庆云2,张腾3,李亚智1(1.西北工业大学 航空学院,西安 710072;2.工业与信息化部电子五所,广州 510000;3.空军工程大学 航空工程学院,西安 710038)摘要:目的建立热空气作用下氟醚-2D(FM-2D)橡胶材料的老化本构模型,形成老化作用下橡胶材料力学响应分析方法,为准确评估橡胶密封件使用寿命提供依据。
方法探究热空气作用下FM-2D橡胶材料老化机理,基于连续介质有限变形理论框架,采用热力学耗散势函数法,引入橡胶老化过程的势能函数,据此建立考虑橡胶材料老化的超弹性本构模型,基于橡胶老化试验,完成本构模型参数标定,实现老化作用下橡胶力学响应的预测。
结果建立了热空气作用下橡胶材料的老化本构模型,依据老化试验数据标定模型参数,分析了热空气作用下橡胶材料本构模型的可靠性。
结论建立的热空气作用下橡胶材料的老化本构模型可准确预测橡胶随老化时间演变的力学响应,有效模拟了橡胶材料的老化过程。
关键词:橡胶;超弹性;热空气;老化;力学响应;本构模型;应变张量中图分类号:TJ04 文献标识码:A 文章编号:1672-9242(2023)12-0078-07DOI:10.7643/ issn.1672-9242.2023.12.010Constitutive Modeling of FM-2D Rubber Materials Subject to Hot Air AgingCHEN Jie1, LI Biao1*, TANG Qing-yun2, ZHANG Teng3, LI Ya-zhi1(1. School of Aeronautics, Northwestern Polytechnical University, Xi'an 710072, China;2. Electronic Fifth Institute of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Guangzhou 510000, China;3. School of Aeronautical Engineering, Air Force Engineering University, Xi’an 710038, China)ABSTRACT: This study aims to establish a constitutive model for rubber materials undergoing hot air aging, emphasizing the development of a mechanical response analysis method applicable for assessing the service life of rubber seals. Employing the finite deformation theory within the framework of continuous mechanics, the method incorporates the thermodynamic dissipa-tion potential function. The potential energy function representing the rubber aging process is introduced, leading to the formu-lation of a hyperelastic constitutive model that accounts for the effects of rubber material aging. To validate the model, rubber aging tests were conducted, and the model parameters were calibrated based on the experimental results. Application of the de-veloped constitutive model to FM-2D rubber material demonstrated its efficacy in accurately predicting the evolution of me-收稿日期:2023-11-15;修订日期:2023-12-12Received:2023-11-15;Revised:2023-12-12基金项目:国家自然科学基金(12072272);国家科技重大专项(J2019-I-0016-0015)Fund:National Natural Science Foundation of China (12072272); National Science and Technology Major Project (J2019-I-0016-0015)引文格式:陈杰, 李彪, 唐庆云, 等. 热空气作用下FM-2D橡胶材料老化本构模型研究[J]. 装备环境工程, 2023, 20(12): 78-84.CHEN Jie, LI Biao, TANG Qin-yun, et al. Constitutive Modeling of FM-2D Rubber Materials Subject to Hot Air Aging[J]. Equipment Environ-mental Engineering, 2023, 20(12): 78-84.*通信作者(Corresponding author)第20卷第12期陈杰,等:热空气作用下FM-2D橡胶材料老化本构模型研究·79·chanical responses under conditions of hot air aging. This model serves as a valuable tool for evaluating the durability of rubber seals and contributes to a more comprehensive understanding of the aging dynamics in rubber materials.KEY WORDS: rubber; hyperelasticity; hot air; aging;mechanical response; constitutive model; strain tensor橡胶密封件对保证发动机的性能、可靠性和安全性至关重要[1-2]。
1、特邀报告
目录1、特邀报告 (1)1.1 我国的能源方针与能源革命 (1)1.2 An Overview of the Australian Antarctic Program (1)1.3 A Perspective on Chinese future Research in the Southern Ocean (1)1.4 筑梦极地—“十三五”极地科学考察工作展望 (2)1.5 南极深冰探测与冰盖科学前沿 (3)1.6 北极黄河站极光观测研究新进展 (3)2、极地研究青年优秀论文候选 (4)2.1 东南极格罗夫山地区冰碛石碎石带中高压麻粒岩和正片麻岩的锆石年代学研究及其构造意义 (4)2.2 北半球夏季中高纬度大气阻塞对北极海冰变化的影响 (4)2.3 白令海和楚科奇海的生源物质埋藏通量研究 (5)2.4 Characteristics of trace metals in marine aerosols and their source identificationover the Southern Ocean (5)2.5 基于AMSR-E遥感数据应用强度比参数确定多年冰的方法探讨 (6)3、极地雪冰与气候变化组 (7)3.1 New approaches to the study of dynamics of East Antarctic Ice Sheet (7)3.2 Triple water isotopologues in summer clear-sky precipitation and frost at DomeA, East Antarctica (7)3.3 末次冰期中大西洋暖水团在美亚海盆一带缺失:来自介形虫化石群的证据 83.4 Recoverable Autonomous Sonde for Environmental Exploration of AntarcticSubglacial Lakes: General Concept and Future Plans (10)3.5 Borehole multifunctional logger (caliper-inclinometer, thermometer-pressuregauge) for research of dynamics’ features of the ice cover of Antarctica and Greenland,operating at extra-low temperature and high pressure conditions (11)3.6 Airborne radio echo souding in Princess Elizabeth Land in East Antarctica (11)3.7 RAID钻具:任务,测试和计划 (12)3.8 基于冰雷达等时层重建东南极Dome A古积累率 (12)3.9 南极冰架下沉积物取样技术:困难及应对方案 (12)3.11 浅层探冰雷达的数据采集与处理 (13)3.12 山谷冰川冰震的规律与影响因素-以老虎沟12号冰川为例 (13)3.13 基于平衡冰晶浓度垂向分布的平面二维冰架下羽流模式改进 (14)4、极地海洋与海冰组 (16)4.1 Decadal changes in the sources of freshwater in the Arctic Ocean (16)4.2 A Multi-Temporal Scale Analysis of Arctic Seasonal Ice Variability and itsIndicators (16)4.3 Taking into account atmospheric uncertainty improves sequential assimilation ofSMOS sea ice thickness data in an ice-ocean model (17)4.4 北极东北航道沿途关键海区冰情研究 (17)4.5 2016年夏季北极东北航道综合预报保障服务 (18)4.6 气旋活动对Fram海峡北极海冰输出量的影响 (19)4.7 Summer decay of landfast ice near New Siberian Islands (20)4.8 基于Cryosat-2的北极波弗特海海冰干舷研究 (20)4.9 融冰期和结冰期白令海海冰变化的分析研究 (21)4.10 白令海夏季水文结构年际变化特征研究 (23)4.11 北极环境噪声及冰下声传播研究综述 (23)4.12 Argo揭示南大洋在退冰期CO2增长过程的作用 (23)4.13 全球海潮模型在南极海域的精度评估 (25)4.14 南半球西风带变化对南极沿岸水团的影响 (25)4.15 Modelingintrusions of the modified Circumpolar Deep WaterbeneaththeAmery Ice Shelf, Antarctica (26)4.16 Retrieved Real-time Sea Ice Thickness from SIMBA Thermistor TemperatureProfiles in Antarctic (27)4.17 2003-2015罗斯冰架冰间湖产冰量的时空变化及模型参数敏感性分析 (27)5、海洋地质与地球物理组 (29)5.1 北冰洋阿尔法洋脊褐色层地球化学特征及其成因分析 (29)5.2 中北冰洋罗蒙诺索夫脊晚第四纪的冰筏碎屑记录及其古气候意义 (29)5.3 白令海北部陆坡沉积物中陆源物质来源和输运过程研究及对末次冰期以来陆海相互作用的启示 (30)5.4 北欧海末次盛冰期以来的古海洋与古气候记录 (31)5.5 Mohns洋中脊的新生岩石圈磁性:从远程地化到地幔上涌 (32)5.6 鄂霍次克海南部晚第四纪古海洋与古气候记录 (32)5.7 北太平洋中部赫斯海隆(Hess Rise)晚第四纪古海洋与古气候记录 (33)5.8 近二百万年以来高低纬度海域表层温度变化的比较研究 (34)5.9 我国南极周边海域地球物理考察与地质构造评价的工作进展 (35)5.10 南极长城站地区构造背景和地震活动特征分析 (36)5.11 南极半岛Bransfield海峡6000年以来硅藻指示的海冰变化对气候的响应375.12 西罗斯海阿黛尔盆地新生代构造特征及指示意义 (38)5.13 罗斯海西北陆架(JOIDES海槽)末次冰期以来冰架消融历史及搬运动力和生源组分变化 (39)5.14 30ka年来罗斯海西部柱状沉积物颜色反射率特征及其古气候意义 (40)5.15 罗斯海西风带区域自氧同位素五期以来的古气候记录 (41)5.16 西南极罗斯海地区有效弹性厚度变化及其对岩石圈结构的指示 (41)5.17 南极洲普里兹湾岩石圈各向异性—海底地震仪观测 (42)6、极区大气与空间物理组 (44)6.1 南极沿岸中山站到冰盖高原DOME-A气象观测与研究 (44)6.2 南北极宇宙线观测 (44)6.3 Derivation of the Reduced Reaction Mechanisms of Ozone Depletion Events inPolar Spring by Using Concentration Sensitivity Analysis and Principal Component Analysis (45)6.4 北极夏季大气垂直结构与空间分布特征 (46)6.5 A mechanism to explain the variations of tropopause and tropopause inversionlayer in the Arctic region during a sudden stratospheric warming in 2009 (47)6.6 Dependence of polar mesosphere summer echoes on solar and geomagneticactivity observed by SuperDARN Zhongshan radar (48)6.7 大气边界层在极地春季臭氧损耗现象的发生和终止过程中作用的模式研究 (48)6.8 太阳活动对极区中层夏季回波(PMSE)出现规律的影响 (49)6.9 极区大气探测钠荧光多普勒激光雷达项目进展 (50)6.10 中冰极光观测台的建设与发展 (51)6.11 嫦娥三号极紫外相机观测亚暴期间等离子体层动力学特征 (51)6.12 北极黄河站极光观测研究新进展 (52)6.13 亚极光粒子漂移的南北不对称性 (53)6.14 Periodic characteristics of auroral activity based on All-sky observations (53)6.15 Simultaneous satellite-ground observations of shock triggered substormexpansion in the Southern Hemisphere (54)6.16 南北半球日侧极光形态分布的统计对比研究 (54)6.17 基于粘性流体力学的极光粒子运动分析 (55)6.18 Optical and radar observations of periodic poleward moving polar cap arcs .. 566.19 极区空间环境共轭观测平台对2012年7月太阳活动事件的初步观测结果 (57)6.20 A comparison between large-scale irregularities and scintillations in the polarionosphere (58)6.21 极隙区感应式磁力计共轭观测 (58)6.22 Near Lossless and Lossless Approach to Extract Radiation Features of Interestin Aurora Spectral Images (59)7、南极天文组 (61)7.1 Searching for exoplanets at Dome A, Antarctica (61)7.2 南极Dome A的天文仪器与观测数据 (61)7.3 中尺度天气模式预报南极光学湍流的进展与展望 (61)7.4 利用中尺度数值天气模式估算南极近地面大气湍流强度 (62)7.5 南极低温环境对望远镜的影响和热控技术研究 (64)7.6 南京天文保障平台的技术指标与接口标准 (64)7.7 南极天文数据处理及数据库设计摘要 (65)8、极地海洋生物地化与生态过程组 (66)8.1 Advances in Polar Science 期刊简介 (66)8.2 南大洋鱼类游泳行为声学方法初步分析 (66)8.3 Spatial-temporal distribution of Antarctic krill CPUE in the Bransfield Strait –topography,SST and photo-synthetically available radiation (67)8.4 北半球高纬海区多环芳烃的归宿与迁移通量:从实测到模型 (68)8.5 N2O sink and source and their impact factors in Bering Sea in Summer (69)8.6 西太平洋至南大洋(17.5°N ~ 69.2°S)表层海水多环芳烃的空间分布及普利兹湾其储量估算与海气交换 (70)8.7 北极-亚北极地区多指标重建的全新世海冰变化 (71)8.8 白令海和楚科奇海几种金属的沉降历史和来源分析 (72)8.9 Gas/particle Partitioning of Atmospheric Polybrominated Diphenyl Ethers(PBDEs) and Mirror Image between Soil and Moss in Polar Regions (73)9、生物多样性与生物技术组 (74)9.1 北极王湾DMSP降解基因的多样性 (74)9.2 海洋细菌分解代谢DMSP及其产物丙烯酸的生化机制 (74)9.3 Mohns洋中脊的新生岩石圈磁性:从远程地化到地幔上涌 (75)9.4 南北极不同生境微生物地理分布及环境适应 (75)9.5 Biodiversity and Phylogenetic Analysis of the Gut Microbiome of EuphausiaSuperba Dana in Rose Sea of Antarctic Ocean (76)9.6 Isolation, Identification and Investigation of bacterial strains from Antarcticsediments for functional products generation (77)9.7 南极红色素研究 (77)9.8 链霉菌NJ94次级代谢产物研究 (77)9.9 南极稀有放线菌Brachybacterium sp. P6-10-X1的基因组学分析 (78)9.10 The complete mitochondrial genome of Chionodraco hamatus (Notothenioidei:Channichthyidae) with phylogenetic consideration (79)9.11 基于耳石信息的南极鱼类生态学研究 (79)9.12 南极磷虾(Euphausia superba Dana)资源时空分布与海洋环境要素的相关性研究 (80)9.13 利用眼柄组织结构鉴定南极磷虾(Euphausia superba)年龄的研究 (81)10、极地陨石与地质学 (84)10.1 NWA 7948月球角砾岩中的岩屑特征及对月壳组成的启示 (84)10.2 南极陨石与深空探测 (84)10.3 火星陨石:火星岩浆活动和古环境演化的窗口 (84)10.4 格罗夫山陨石GRV052483:是正常的还是冲击熔融的L6型普通球粒陨石 (85)10.5 2016年南极陨石分类工作进展报告 (86)10.6 L群普通球粒陨石热变质与化学平衡 (86)10.7 十五块新发现的HED族陨石的类型划分 (88)10.8 辉石成分在判别HED族陨石岩石类型中的的应用 (90)10.9 东南极布朗山格林威尔期变质及泛非期改造 (92)10.10 第七次东南极内陆格罗夫山野外地质考察及其进展 (92)10.11 Multiple metamorphic episodes of the Larsemann Hills, East Antarctica (93)10.12 南极大陆及周边海域1:500万地质图编制 (93)10.13 极地生物基因组演化与环境演变关系研究 (95)10.14 1:5万南极格罗夫山地质图及有关研究 (95)10.15 西南极乔治王岛白垩纪末-中新世火山-沉积地层年代学与古地磁学研究新进展 (95)10.16 南极半岛地区旅游地质 (96)10.17 东南极拉斯曼丘陵中山站地区及格罗夫山地区基岩铷含量调查 (96)10.18 新发现月球陨石M16005岩石矿物学特征 (98)10.19 H和L群普通球粒陨石熔壳特征与对比研究 (100)10.20 库姆塔格014普通球粒陨石的球粒特征研究 (101)11、极地环境监测与信息集成共享 (103)11.1 极地浮标监测系统及软件平台介绍 (103)11.2 极区冰基拖曳式海洋剖面测量浮标的低功耗设计与实现 (103)11.3 南极冰穹A低氧环境对考察队员睡眠模式的影响 (103)11.4 基于 GPS 的“雪龙” 船冲击式破冰模式识别研究 (105)11.5 基于Web端科考船航线数据处理 (105)11.6 冰内多层位太阳辐射通量自动观测技术研究 (106)11.7 极地海洋环境监测网的设计与实现 (108)11.8 基于时空挖掘实现站点推荐 (108)12、极地遥感与大地测量 (109)12.1 The change of the Arctic ice cover in the past 20 years (109)12.2 Area changes and the influence factors of Terra Nova Bay Polynya from 2004to 2015 (109)12.5 北极海冰边界AMSR2 ASI海冰密集度产品,SSMIS NT海冰密集度产品精度比较 (112)12.6 双极化海冰密集度反演算法原理及其在北极区域的应用研究 (114)12.7 Estimate the potential of sea ice lead as a predictor for the seasonal Arctic seaice extent (116)12.8 东南极达尔克冰川高精度冰流速及其加速特征 (117)12.9 基于高度计数据估计及分析南极及LAS区域冰盖表面高程变化 (118)12.10 The surface topographic change and value assessment of snow accumulationrate around Dome Argus, Antarctica from 2011 to 2016 (119)12.11 基于Sentinel-1A数据提取Amery冰架接地线 (120)12.12 Surface Ice Velocity Retrieval from MOA Based On NCC Feature Tracking (121)12.13 基于多源遥感数据的南极三大冰架和中山站附近地区冰川变化监测 .. 12212.14 基于多源遥感产品的南极水平变化研究 (123)12.15 Ronne-Filchner冰架区域冰裂隙制图及变化研究 (123)12.16 东南极20世纪60-80年代ARGON/Landsat冰川表面流速图 (124)12.17 Monitoring Jakobshavn Glacier using Sequential Landsat Images (125)12.18 Antarctic snowmelt detected by diurnal variations of AMSR-E brightnesstemperature (125)12.19 Monitoring the Front Dynamics and Ice Flowing of Dalk Glacier UsingChinese Gaofen-2 Satellite and Polar Hawk-1 Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (126)12.20 热膨胀效应对南极地区GNSS基准站垂向位移非线性变化的影响 (127)12.21 基于GPS数据对经过波形重定后SARAL卫星测高数据建立的南极DomeA区域DEM进行精度评定 (127)12.22 Quality Analysis of GNSS Data in Antarctica (128)13、极地战略研究 (129)13.1 对我国南极立法若干基本问题的思考——以国际南极立法概况为基础 .. 12913.2 中国参与南极治理的国际合作战略研究 (129)13.3 美国南极活动体制,机制及其对我国的启示 (130)13.4 南极治理中的权力扩散 (130)13.5 美国南极科研投入的定量分析 (130)13.6 南极海洋保护区对科学自由的影响 (131)13.7 STUDY OF POLAR SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY SYSTEM OF MAJORPOLAR COUNTRIES——TAKE THE U.S., RUSSIA AND AUSTRALIA AS EXAMPLES (131)13.8 中国北极科技外交与国际体系中的信任 (132)13.9 北极旅游政治研究 (134)13.10 北极核污染治理问题研究 (135)13.11 北极航线相关问题研究 (136)13.12 北极航道与传统航线航运成本的估算和比较分析 (136)13.13《极地规则》的生效与北极航道沿岸国法律规制发展 (137)13.14 俄罗斯北极油气资源开发中运输问题研究:北方航道现状与前景 (138)13.15 加拿大和俄罗斯北极航行管制的合法限度 (139)13.16 “一带一路”与“欧亚联盟”战略对接的北极地区空间路径选择 (139)13.17 中国欧盟在北极国际合作中身份对比 (139)13.18 北极在俄罗斯新海洋战略中的地位及其影响 (140)13.19 日本北极战略及政策简述 (140)13.21 北极治理的全球化VS.本地化 (141)13.22 中国参与北极事务身份探析 (141)13.23 地缘势理论及北极问题应用研究 (142)13.24 浅析北极应对气候变化的法律问题 (143)13.25 格陵兰政府的资源开发政策与实践 (143)13.26 北极渔业及渔业管理展望 (144)13.27 The 2015 Oslo Declaration on High Seas Arctic Fisheries——Starting Point towards Future Fisheries Management in the Central Arctic Ocean (144)13.28 从地图上看北极的海洋权益现状 (146)13.29 我国北极社科研究者网络研究 (147)13.30 中国穿行北极航道的国际法问题研究 (147)13.31 北极外大陆架划界申请的国际法研究 (149)13.32 非政府组织在减少国际航运业北极黑碳排放方面的作用 (149)13.33 北极航线开发利用系统建设研究 (149)13.34 我国的北极战略与相关航行规则 (150)1、特邀报告1.1 我国的能源方针与能源革命徐锭明国务院参事摘要:略1.2 An Overview of the Australian Antarctic ProgramDr Gwen Fenton, Chief ScientistAustralian Antarctic Division, Department of the Environment and Energy, Kingston, AustraliaAbstract:An introduction to the new Australian Antarctic Strategy and 20 year Action Plan will be provided. This Strategy sets out Australia’s national Antarctic interests and our vision for Australia’s future engagement in Antarctica.The presentation will also provide an overview of the areas of research undertaken within the Australian Antarctic Science Program. Australian and international scientists from 23 countries and over 190 institutions are currently collaborating to deliver world-class scientific research consistent with Australia’s Antarctic Science Strategic Plan. The primary focus of the science program is to conduct research to provide an evidence basis for policy matters relating to environmental management, conservation and climate science. Much of the research addresses issues/gaps within the Antarctic Treaty system, International Whaling Commission and International Panel on Climate Change.1.3 A Perspective on Chinese future Research in the Southern OceanMeng ZhouShanghai Jiao Tong UniversityAbstract:The Southern Ocean has been attained the vital attentions of scientists on its role in global ocean thermohaline circulation, carbon export, marine living resources and climate change. Many international joint projects such as Joint Global Ocean Flux Study-Southern Ocean Study and Southern Ocean Global Ocean Ecosystem Dynamics have made significant progresses in understanding regional processes of Antarctic Circumpolar Current, Antarctic bottom water formation, iron limitation processes on primary production and carbon export, krill life histories, migration behavior and overwintering strategies, and effects of climate change on regional ecosystem structures. But in the Southern Ocean, there is a significant lack of information how regional processes are interconnected at the basin scale of the Southern Ocean through large scale circulation and climate change. There is an urgent need to take a holistic approach to solve coupled regional and basin scale processes which affect populations of marine organisms, regional environment and ecosystem structures. China is an emerging nation in Antarctic research, especially in the Southern Ocean. In the last 30 years, China has transformed from individual participations in research to organized resource explorations, and from a single ship primarily for supply and single line surveys to multiple ships exploring krill resources. As more research vessels with ice-classes will be built in China, China will be ready soon in ships, equipment and instruments to address key interdisciplinary processes driving thermohaline, carbon export, ecosystem and climate change at both regional and Southern Ocean scales. Chinese polar scientists and administration have to take such a historic opportunity, and to solve challenges in knowledge of new science, infrastructure, and management, inclusion of scientists from both traditional and nontraditional research institutions and scientific fields, and governance of large interdisciplinary and international joint projects in next 10 years. China will have to make a rapid transition to play a bigger role in the Southern Ocean research and communities.1.4 筑梦极地—“十三五”极地科学考察工作展望吴军国家海洋局极地考察办公室摘要:2016年3月,国家发布《国民经济和社会发展第十三个五年规划纲要》,“雪龙探极”重大工程列入“专栏15海洋重大工程”。
海洋表层温度对台风“蔷薇”路径和强度预测精度的影响
海洋表层温度对台风“蔷薇”路径和强度预测精度的影响赵彪;乔方利;王关锁【摘要】基于中尺度大气模式WRF(Weather Researchand Forecastingmodel),首先对2007年3次船舶辐射通量观测进行模拟,以检验WRF对长波和短波辐射通量的模拟能力,结果表明使用中国近海海洋环境数值预报系统环流模式POM(Princeton Oceanmodel)模拟的高时空分辨率的海洋表层温度能够显著改进短波辐射通量的模拟,而对长波辐射通量模拟的改进不明显.然后,将业务化运行的中国近海海洋环境数值预报系统后报的逐时海洋表面温度(SST)作为WRF底边界条件,对2008年15号强台风“蔷薇”(Jangmi)过程进行了数值后报试验.结果表明,与使用NCEP/NCAR的SST试验后报的台风中心位置偏差相比,使用高时空分辨率的SST能够较为显著地改善“蔷薇”的路径模拟,台风中心位置模拟偏差减少11%,尤其在台风减弱阶段,台风中心位置模拟偏差减少37%.台风强度在台风发展的不同阶段对下垫面SST的变化敏感性不同.台风路径附近的海表面温度下降会导致海洋向大气输送的热量减少从而减弱台风强度.%The Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) is employed to test the impacts of sea surface temperature (SST) on the track and intensity of Typhoon Jangmi, 2008 in the region of (15°- 41°N, 105°-135°E). Firstly, two scenarios are conducted to test the sensitivities of radiation fluxes to SST. The model-computed radiation fluxes are compared with in-situ data and shows that WRF provides a reasonable prediction only for short-wave radiation fluxes but not for long-wave radiation fluxes in the first scenario. Hourly high resolution SST data from MASNUM wave-tide-circulation coupled system then used as bottom boundary of WRF for the second scenario. Thescenario which use SST data from MASNUM system improved the short-wave and long-wave radiation and give a more accurate estimation. Two experiments are also conducted to simulate typhoon JANGMI during September 2008. The high resolution SST data from MASNUM system can improved the typhoon track forecast. The bias of center position of the typhoon reduces about 37% compared with the control experiment. The experiment by using SST from MASNUM model is more realistic than NCEP/NCARG SST from the control run. The results also can show that typhoon intensity has different sensitivity to sea surface temperature in different phase. The SST drop induced by typhoon decrease the heat fluxes transport from ocean to atmosphere and then weaken typhoon.【期刊名称】《海洋学报(中文版)》【年(卷),期】2012(034)004【总页数】12页(P41-52)【关键词】WRF;SST;台风路径;台风强度;热通量;辐射通量【作者】赵彪;乔方利;王关锁【作者单位】国家海洋局海洋环境科学与数值模拟国家海洋局重点试验室,山东青岛 266061;国家海洋局第一海洋研究所,山东青岛 266061;国家海洋局海洋环境科学与数值模拟国家海洋局重点试验室,山东青岛 266061;国家海洋局第一海洋研究所,山东青岛 266061;国家海洋局海洋环境科学与数值模拟国家海洋局重点试验室,山东青岛 266061;国家海洋局第一海洋研究所,山东青岛 266061【正文语种】中文【中图分类】P732.6台风是热带海洋上生成的一种强烈天气过程,台风经过时常伴随着大风和暴雨或特大暴雨等强对流天气,对人类安全和财产安全产生威胁,而台风路径、强度和登陆地点的准确预报仍是目前台风预报的难点。
使用伪氨基酸组成和BP神经网络预测类弹性蛋白多肽的相变温度
使用伪氨基酸组成和BP神经网络预测类弹性蛋白多肽的相变温度黄凯宗;张光亚【摘要】根据获得的16条ELP序列及相变温度的数据,利用伪氨基酸组成方法提取其序列特征值.将伪氨基酸组成中的相关系数部分作为类弹性蛋白的特征向量,从类弹性蛋白序列出发,利用最小中位方差回归,找出与其序列相关系数的最佳阶数.运用均匀设计法,分别对支持向量机与BP神经网络参数进行优化.结果表明:BP神经网络获得的预测模型最佳,相变温度绝对误差为0.39℃,均方根误差为0.89℃.【期刊名称】《华侨大学学报(自然科学版)》【年(卷),期】2011(032)002【总页数】4页(P194-197)【关键词】类弹性蛋白;相变温度;伪氨基酸组成方法;支持向量机;BP神经网络【作者】黄凯宗;张光亚【作者单位】华侨大学,化工学院,福建,泉州,362021;华侨大学,化工学院,福建,泉州,362021【正文语种】中文【中图分类】Q516.02类弹性蛋白多肽(Elastin-Like Polypep tides,ELPs)是一种具有弹性功能且对环境非常敏感的生物高分子,它由五肽重复序列单元构成.如果环境温度低于ELP的相变温度,则该多肽在水溶液中是高度可溶的,聚合物链就保持无序结构,且相当伸展;反之,当环境温度高于相变温度时,这一含水的多肽链结构就会瓦解,并开始聚集,形成一个富含 ELPs的聚集物[1].利用类弹性蛋白的可逆相变特性,使其在蛋白纯化、药物载体、组织工程等方面得到广泛的应用[2].U rry等[3]认为,相变温度是关于 ELP序列、多肽链长度、Xaa种类摩尔分数的函数.Chilkoti等[4]利用重组基因进行克隆表达,得到了在序列和多肽链长均能精确控制的ELP.他们用非线性回归分析描述了ELP序列链长及浓度与相变温度的关系,但所得到的模型仅能预测3种ELP文库的相变温度.本文根据获得的16条ELP序列及相变温度的数据,利用伪氨基酸组成方法提取其序列特征值,采用BP神经网络、支持向量机方法、最小中位方差回归预测ELP 的相变温度值.1.1 试验数据来源文中所用的数据取自于文献[5].1.2 伪氨基酸组成伪氨基酸组成包含20+λ个变量,最早由Chou等[6]提出.由于文中所涉及的ELP氨基酸组成极为相似,而且种类很少,为了减少输入变量数目,对其略作调整,仅取其后的λ个变量,即氨基酸相关系数. ELP相关系数的阶数λ从1取到10,氨基酸相关系数计算参见文献[7].1.3 均匀设计在运行时,支持向量机(SVM)[8]和BP神经网络[9]都需要选择参数,以达到最佳效果.因此,采用均匀设计法(UD)[10]来选择适当的运行参数.定义3个特征指标[11],即平均绝对百分比误差δMPAE、均方根误差δMSE和平均绝对误差δMAE.模型预测的结果采用常用的“留一法”,即对 n组数据,每次取1组作测试,其他n-1组作为训练样本,共进行 n次循环,使得样本中所有数据都能进行预测.2.1 氨基酸相关系数的阶数的选择根据文献[6],氨基酸相关系数的阶数(λ)是伪氨基酸组成一重要参数.文献数据的相变温度呈离散分布,使用最小中位方差回归会更为精确 [11-12],且运行过程中无需调整参数.参数λ经最小中位方差(Least Median of Squares Regression,LM SQ)回归检测,获得的平均绝对百分比误差δMPAE、均方根误差δMSE和平均绝对误差δMAE关系,如表1所示.由表1可知,当λ=8时,δMAE为3.04,δMSE为5.73,δMPAE为40.91%.即拟合所得ELP相变温度准确率最高,因此取λ=8.当λ=8时,执行最小中位方差回归得到ELP的相变温度拟合模型为其中:x1~x8分别为伪氨基酸组中相关系数;x9~x10分别为ELP的相对分子质量、ELP每一单体的Xaa数量;ELP浓度对ELP相变温度没有影响,故为其相关系数零.从模型(1)可见,第1,第4和第6个相关系数对相变温度有较大的负面影响,而第5个相关系数则有较大的正面影响;伪氨基酸组的相关系数对ELP的相变温度影响较大.当ELP浓度较高时,其浓度在一定范围变化对相变温度几乎不影响.这与Chilkoti 等[4]的实验结果较为一致.使用最小中位方差回归获得的拟合值与实测值关系,如图1所示.由图1可知,一些拟合值非常好,而另外一些预测值与实测值差距比较大,从而导致其回归直线的斜率偏离较大.2.2 利用支持向量机预测相变温度如前所述,λ=8为氨基酸相关系数的阶数最佳运行参数.利用均匀设计法对支持向量机的运行参数进行优化,交叉验证后的结果如表2所示.由表2可得出,3个误差特征指标在交叉验证中变化的幅度较小.这说明SVM对运行的参数不是很敏感.当惩罚系数C=100,ε为1.0×10-5,γ为0.3 (即方案7)时,其δMAE,δMSE和δMP AE值均最小,分别为1.85,3.31和23.39%.即所建立的模型对 ELP相变温度预测准确率最高,故为最佳方案.在方案7中,使用用支持向量机方法建立相变温度模型.通过该模型对实际测得的数据进行预测,预测的效果,如图2所示.从图2可知,模型预测的结果与实际测量值的相关系数达0.93,模型预测的结果较好.2.3 利用神经网络预测相变温度对神经网络而言,由于训练样本集的大小有限,网络训练后对训练集外的输入的响应,直接决定网络的性能.为了检验所建立的神经网络的可靠性,对其进行3因素9水平交叉验证,结果如表3所示.从表3可知,3个特征值变化幅度较大,神经网络对运行参数比较敏感.在9组验证中,采用默认参数获得的特征值最好.即隐含层节点数(n)为6,学习速率(v)为0.3,动态参数(σ)为0.2时,准确率最高,其δMAE,δMSE和δMPAE值均最小,分别为0.39,0.89和4.86%.用BP神经网络建立的相变温度模型.通过该模型对实际测得的数据进行预测,结果如图3所示.从图3可知,模型预测的结果与实际测量值的相关系数达0.99.由图1~3可知,BP神经网络所建立的预测相变温度的精度,比使用支持向量机和最小中位方差回归建立的相变温度要好,可作为后续使用的模型.当实测的ELP相变温度为60℃(此时ELP的序列最短浓度最高),与3种算法所预测(回归的结果是拟合的)出来相变温度值均差距较大.这可能是因为当序列较短时,ELP 浓度与长度的变化对相变温度影响更大[4],而ELP的序列组成对相变温度影响较小. 与传统的拟合方法预测ELP的相变温度相比,基于支持向量机和神经网络对相变温度进行预测,不用通过预测相变温度具体形式,就可以直接从数据中得到相变温度与ELP序列、分子量、Xaa组成、浓度之间的关系.同时,只要能加以一定的先验知识,还能够更大范围地反映它们之间的关系,其应用的范围也将更为广阔.文中基于Chou等提出的伪氨基酸概念[6],考虑到ELP的氨基酸组成极为相似,构造了一种λ维的伪氨基酸组成来表示蛋白质序列.采用BP神经网络、支持向量机方法、最小中位方差回归预测ELP的相变温度值.结果表明,当λ=8为氨基酸相关系数的阶数最佳运行参数时,使用BP神经网络所建立的相变温度预测模型为最佳.【相关文献】[1]URRYDW.Physical chemistry of biological free energy transduction as demonstrated by elastic protein-based polymers[J].Phys Chem(B),1997,101(51):11007-11028.[2]CHOW D,NUNALEE M L,CH IL KOTIA,et al.Pep tide-based biopolymers in biomedicine and biotechnology [J].Mater Sci Eng R Rep,2008,62(4):125-155.[3]URRYD W,LUAN C H,PARKER T M,et al.Temperature of polypep tide inverse temperature transition depends on mean residue hydrophobicity[J].J Am ChemSoc,1991,113(11):4346-4348.[4]M EYER D E,CH ILKOTIA.Quantification of the effects of chain length and concentration on the thermal behavior of elastin-like polypep tides[J].Biomacromolecules,2004,5(3):846-851.[5]OlSON SD.Mathematical models for analysisof tissue regeneration in articular cartilage[D].No rth Carolina State: North Carolina State University,2009.[6]CHOU Kuo-chen.Prediction of protein cellular attributes using pseudo amino acid composition[J].Proteins:Structure,Function,and Bioinfo rmatics,2001,43(3):246-255. [7]SHEN Hong-bin,CHOU Kuo-chen.PseAAC:A flexible web-server for generating various kinds of protein pseudo amino acid composition[J].AnalyticalBiochemistry,2008,373(2):386-388.[8]VANPN IK V N.The nature of statistical learning theory[M].New York:Sp ringer-Verlag,1995.[9]黄永恒,曹平,汪亦显.基于BP神经网络的岩土工程预测模型研究[J].科技导报,2009,27(6):61-64.[10]方开泰.均匀设计:数论方法在试验设计的应用[J].应用数学学报,1980(3):363-372.[11]张光亚,葛慧华,方柏山.一种预测木聚糖酶最适温度的PCANN模型[J].华侨大学学报:自然科学版,2007,28 (1):55-58.[12]ROUSSEEUW PJ.Leastmedian of squares regression[J].Journal of the American Statistical Association,1984,79 (388):871-880.[13]STEELE JM,STEIGERW L.Algorithms and complexity for least median of squares regression[J].Discrete Applied Mathematics,1986,14(1) :93-100.。
基于 AMSR-E 遥感数据应用强度比参数确定多年冰的方法探讨
基于 AMSR-E 遥感数据应用强度比参数确定多年冰的方法探讨张树刚;郭发东;张继明;刘雷;白雪娇【摘要】研究发现,AMSR-E的垂直极化的18.7 GHz ( V18.7)和36.5 GHz ( V36.5)的亮温比值在一年冰覆盖区域主要是相应频段的海冰微波发射率之比,而在多年冰覆盖区域受海冰微波发射率和海冰温度共同影响,并且海冰年龄越大亮温比值也越大。
应用强度比参数可以比较好地确定冬季一年冰与多年冰之间的阈值,其中,在该阈值处,强度比梯度达到最大。
该阈值呈现明显的季节性变化规律,在冬季阈值比较稳定,而在夏季受海水的影响变化范围比较大。
应用强度比方法确定的多年冰范围,与NASA Team2( NT2)方法相比在大西洋扇区差异非常小;而在太平洋扇区出现比较大的差异。
对比发现强度比法确定的多年冰范围一般大于NT2法。
%This study found that the ratio of vertically polarized brightness temperature of AMSR -E passive microwave data at 18.7 and 36.5 is the ratio of sea ice microwave emissivity for first-year ice.However, for multi-year ice, this ra-tio is also affected by sea icetemperature .Furthermore , the ratio for older ice is larger than for younger ice .The contrast ratio is a suitable parameter with which to ascertain the threshold between first-year and multi-year ice be-cause the maximum gradient of the contrast ratio appears at the threshold .This threshold varies seasonally;it is rel-atively steady during winter but changes considerably during summer because of the influence of meltwater .Little difference was found in the multi-year ice coverage of the Arctic section of the Atlantic Ocean when ascertained by the contrast ratio and NASATeam2 (NT2) algorithm;however, large differences were found in the Arctic section of the Pacific Ocean.In comparison to the NT2, the coverage of multi-year ice is commonly found to be larger when ascertained using the contrast ratio .【期刊名称】《极地研究》【年(卷),期】2016(028)001【总页数】8页(P95-102)【关键词】北极;亮温;一年冰;多年冰;强度比【作者】张树刚;郭发东;张继明;刘雷;白雪娇【作者单位】山东省科学院海洋仪器仪表研究所,海洋环境监测技术重点实验室,山东青岛266001;山东省科学院海洋仪器仪表研究所,海洋环境监测技术重点实验室,山东青岛266001;山东省科学院海洋仪器仪表研究所,海洋环境监测技术重点实验室,山东青岛266001;山东省科学院海洋仪器仪表研究所,海洋环境监测技术重点实验室,山东青岛266001;山东省科学院海洋仪器仪表研究所,海洋环境监测技术重点实验室,山东青岛266001【正文语种】中文0 引言20世纪70年代中期以来全球变化对北极产生了强烈的影响,其中最显著的变化是北极海冰日趋减少,并且这种减少的趋势日益加快。
模糊算法的风速预测器设计
Abstract— A new strategy in wind speed prediction based on fuzzy logic is proposed. The new strategy not only provides significantly less rule base but also it has increased estimated wind speed accuracy in compare to traditional one. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method not only provides less computational time but also a better wind speed prediction performance.Index Terms— Fuzzy logic, prediction, time series, wind speed.I.I NTRODUCTIONFinding new sources of energy is one of the most important challenges of the current century. Due to increasing demand for renewable energy resources, wind energy and its associated issues have received more attention recently. The power-generating efficiency of a wind turbine can be significantly increased if the turbine’s operation is controlled based on the information of wind and wind changes at the turbine location. However, due to unpredictable nature of wind speed from time to time and from location to location it is difficult to estimate the utilization factor of wind farms. Therefore, accurate long term and short term forecasting of wind speed is vital for wind power generation systems efficiency [1].There are various strategies for wind speed prediction that can be classified in to two categories: First group are statistical methods that can be subdivided to Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) and persistence, and the second group are artificial intelligence techniques that have subdivisions such as neural networks and fuzzy logic.A.Problem FormulationThe mathematical description of the wind pattern recognition/prediction problem is to find an estimate V(k+n) of the wind speed vector V(k) based on the previous m measurements V(k), V(k-1), …, V(k-m+1). In order to have accurate wind speed prediction n is chosen to be very small and this is called short term wind speed prediction. Application of time-series prediction can be found in the areas of economic, inventory and production control, weather forecasting, signal processing and control [2].Manuscript received July 17, 2007.Authors are with the department of electrical engineering, Amirkabir University of Technology, Hafez Ave., Tehran 15914, Iran. (phone: +98-21-64543366; e-mail: {m.monfared, nikravsh, rastegar}@aut.ac.ir).B.Fuzzy Logic Method for Wind Speed Prediction BackgroundA general method has been developed to generate fuzzy rules from some numerical input- output data pairs by Wang, et. al, [2, 3]. They proposed a five step procedure for generating fuzzy rules from numerical data pairs and also they showed that how to use these fuzzy rules to obtain a mapping from input space to output space. Meanwhile, they demonstrated that their new method can be used for time-series prediction and compared the results with those obtained using neural network predictor. The developed method in [2] seems to be simpler and require much less construction time than a comparable neural network. S. H. Lee et. al [4] also proved that the developed method in [2] is comparable with neural network and works quite well.The main drawback of all proposed methods based on fuzzy logic in [2, 3, 4] in wind speed prediction is the large number of fuzzy rule base. For accurate wind speed prediction having high number of wind speed measurements is necessary. However, by increasing the inputs for fuzzy logic block, the dimension of fuzzy rule base will be increased dramatically. I. Kim et. al, [5] proposed a time series prediction method using a fuzzy rule-based system. In order to solve the fuzzy logic drawback in non-stationary systems they proposed a method of building fuzzy rules for prediction which utilized the difference of consecutive values in a time series. In [6, 7] a fuzzy model has been suggested for the prediction of wind speed and the produced electrical power at a wind park. They trained their model using a genetic algorithm-based learning scheme at various stations in and around the wind park. They improved the efficiency of short-term forecasting which ranges from a few minutes to several hours ahead. However, because of large number of wind speed measurements for fuzzy logic system, the dimension of fuzzy rule base is large and it consumes more computational time.Authors propose a new strategy in wind speed prediction based on fuzzy logic. The proposed fuzzy logic not only provides significantly less rule base but with increased estimated wind speed accuracy in compare to traditional one. Indeed, as it will be discussed later, the reduced rule base dimension makes it feasible to utilize fuzzy logic in time series prediction problem. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method not only provides less computational time but also a better wind speed prediction performance.A Novel Fuzzy Predictor for Wind SpeedM. Monfared, S. K. Y. Nikravesh, and H. RastegarII. P ROPOSED P REDICTOR S TRUCTUREThe main structure of proposed method is shown in Fig. 1. From this figure it is clear that instead of direct applying of measured wind speeds in time series of V (k ), V (k -1), V (k-2), …, V (k-m+1) to fuzzy predictor and estimation of V (k +1), V (k+2), …, V (k+n ), some statistic properties of time series inputs such as: standard deviation, average, and slope has been calculated and has been used as inputs to fuzzy predictor. First order linear regression between the data and time is applied to find the slope of corresponding input data. In fact, authors found that these three statistic characteristics represent a perfect knowledge about all the properties of wind speed time series. By reducing the inputs to fuzzy inference system the fuzzy rule base will be reduced significantly. As one will see all wind speed statistic properties can be summarized in small rule base, without sacrificing the estimated wind speed accuracy. Indeed, the preprocessing block extracts the desired futures from the input data and makes the decision easier for predictor which subsequently causes a reduced rule base dimension.In order to investigate the effectiveness of the proposed model, many benchmark tests have been carried out using real wind data measured in Rostamabad in northern Iran for 2002 to 2005 period. These measured data have been averaged for every 30 minutes interval. The measured data for first two weeks of Feb., May, Aug., and Nov. have been averaged through 2002 to 2004. For each month 672 samples are used as train data for that month. Corresponding measurements for 2005 are used as test data. Train data have been used for obtaining fuzzy logic. In order to evaluate the performance of different methods two statistic properties such as Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Coefficient of Determination (COD) will be used.()21211RMSE ⎥⎥⎦⎤⎢⎢⎣⎡−=∑Nip i y y N (1)2y2x y,-1 COD σσ= (2)where:()21121⎥⎥⎥⎥⎥⎦⎤⎢⎢⎢⎢⎢⎣⎡−−=∑=N y y N i m i y σ, ()2112,2⎥⎥⎥⎥⎥⎦⎤⎢⎢⎢⎢⎢⎣⎡−−=∑=N y y Ni ip i xy σN= total number of data points y i = actual values of yy ip = predicted values for y y m = the mean of y iRMSE is an absolute error between real and predicted values. The less RMSE means the better wind speed estimation. On the other hand, COD allows us to determine how certain one can be in making prediction from a certain model/graph and its value varies between 0 and 1. 0 value of COD means the worst speed prediction and 1 COD indicates the best accuracy in wind speed prediction.III. F UZZY PREDICTORIn the present study the proposed method in [2, 3] has been applied to produce fuzzy rules from input-output data pairs. As discussed in [2, 3], since each data pair generates a fuzzy rule, there will be some conflicting rules i.e. rules that have the same IF parts but different THEN parts. To solve this problem, Wang et. al, [2, 3] assigned a degree to each rule. This degree is defined to be the product of the memberships of its components. The accepted rule is the only one that has the maximum degree. Authors modifies the proposed method by [2, 3] in such a way that from a conflicting group the only rule will accept that has the most occurrence. Only in the case that there are more than one data pair having the maximum occurrence the mentioned degree will be used. Because due to disturbance, noise, inexact measurements or records, transient weather conditions such as raining, snowing, icing,temperature variations and etc., some rules may get a big degree whereas their generative data pair will not occur again. Using the systematic method of [2, 3] enables us to compare results of the proposed and traditional fuzzy predictors. Our modification also improves the fuzzy prediction accuracy. Any shape and number for Membership Functions (MF) can be selected. The nine MFs are characterized as 50% overlapping isosceles right triangles for ease of fuzzification as shown in Fig. 2. The more MF numbers means the more accuracy in wind speed prediction, however, with large rule base dimension.Fig. 2 Fuzzy membership functionsTable 1. The statistical analysis for wind speed predictions in proposed and traditional methodsTraditionalm:3 4 5 6 7 8 Feb. 2005COD: 0.43032 0.43068 0.3996 0.39048 0.3918 0.38088RMSE: 3.3026 3.3615 3.4264 3.5026 3.5562 3.6187 May 2005COD: 0.9042 0.82836 0.63984 0.4566 0.29352 0.20484RMSE: 1.5566 1.7398 2.1684 2.5494 2.9009 3.2057 Aug. 2005COD: 0.9591 0.9404 0.9027 0.8721 0.8198 0.7491RMSE: 0.7712 0.9567 1.178 1.3335 1.5747 1.8381 Nov. 2005COD: 0.8646 0.83412 0.77112 0.66048 0.51744 0.39816RMSE: 1.8117 1.8909 2.0141 2.2054 2.4624 2.7102 Proposedm:3 4 5 6 7 8 Feb. 2005COD: 0.46788 0.46692 0.47616 0.45768 0.45072 0.42504RMSE:3.2726 3.275 3.291 3.3061 3.3909 3.3593 May 2005COD: 0.75612 0.68328 0.71412 0.68916 0.63732 0.57444RMSE: 1.9066 2.1313 2.0645 2.1599 2.3226 3.2046 Aug. 2005COD: 0.8909 0.8889 0.9072 0.9036 0.8841 0.8896RMSE: 1.2148 1.2258 1.1168 1.1543 1.2623 1.254 Nov. 2005COD: 0.741 0.7068 0.79704 0.68976 0.6393 0.61104RMSE: 2.021 2.1136 2.0123 2.1398 2.2536 2.642 Table 2. Comparisons for fuzzy rule base dimension (Aug. 2005)Traditionalm:3 4 5 6 7 8 Number of generated rules: 84 184 313 414 500 590Full rule base dimension: 729 6561 59049 531441 4782969 43046721Proposedm:3 4 5 6 7 8 Number of generated rules: 162 144 132 132 128 120Full rule base dimension: 729 729 729 729 729 729Table 1 compares the RMSE and COD criteria for proposed and traditional fuzzy methods for n = 1, and m = 3, 4, …, 8. One can see that for m > 4 the proposed method has better accuracy for whole year from Feb. to Nov. Table 2 indicates the fuzzy rule base dimensions for proposed and traditional one. It is clear that the number of generated fuzzy rules as well as the full rule base dimension in traditional method is much larger than the one in proposed strategy. In traditional method the dimension of full rule-base increases dramatically as the number of inputs m increases whereas in proposed method, as a result of the limited inputs to the fuzzy block, the dimension remains limited and constant, independent of m. For on-line implement of wind speed predictor the fast micro-controller such as DSP will be required. By reducing the rule base the computational time of on-line implementation will be reduced without sacrificing the prediction accuracy as shown in Tables 1 and 2. The wind speed prediction error for proposed and traditional methods in Aug. and with m = 8 is shown in Fig. 3. From this figure we can recognize that the error between real and estimated wind speeds is smaller in proposed method.x 104Time (min)E r r o r (m /s )Fig. 3. Wind speed prediction errors for proposed and traditional methods (m = 8) IV. C ONCLUSIONA new structure for fuzzy logic in wind speed prediction is proposed. The proposed method provides very less fuzzy rule base dimension. The experimental results demonstrate that the new method not only provides less computational time but also it has a better wind speed prediction performance.R EFERENCES[1] T. Burton, D. Sharpe, N. Jenkins, and E. Bossanyi, Wind energyhandbook . Chichester, John Wiley and Sons, 2001.[2] L. X. Wang, and M. Mendel, “Generating fuzzy rules by learning fromexamples”, IEEE Transactions on systems, man and cybernetics , Nov./Dec. 1992, vol. 22, no. 6, pp. 1414-1426.[3] L. X. Wang, A course in fuzzy systems and control . Printice-HallInc.,Upper Saddle River, NJ, 1996.[4] S. H. Lee, and I. Kim, “Time series analysis using fuzzy learning”, InProceedings of International Conference on Neural Information Processing, Seoul, Korea, Oct. 1994, vol. 6, pp. 1577-1582.[5] I. Kim, and S. H. Lee, “A fuzzy time series prediction method based onconsecutive values”, In Proceedings of IEEE International Fuzzy Systems Conference, Seoul, Korea, Aug. 22-25, 1999, vol. 2, pp. 703-707.[6] I. G. Damousis, and P. Dokopoulos, “A fuzzy expert system for theforecasting of wind speed and power generation in wind farms”, Power Industry Computer Applications, 2001. PICA 2001. Innovative Computing for Power - Electric Energy Meets the Market. 22nd IEEE Power Engineering Society International Conference on, May 20-24, 2001, pp. 63-69.[7] I. G. Damousis, M. C. Alexiadis, J. B. Theocharis, and P. A. Dokopoulos,“A fuzzy model for wind speed prediction and power generation in wind parks using spatial correlation”, IEEE Transactions on energy conversion , June 2004, vol. 19, no. 2, pp. 352-361.。
米兰科维奇冰期旋回理论_挑战与机遇
古气候变化一般被划分成 3个时间尺度 :构造 尺度 、轨道尺度和亚轨道尺度 ,并且每个时间尺度变 化各有不同的驱动机制 。相比而言 ,轨道尺度气候 变化机制的研究最为深入 ,这是因为轨道尺度气候 变化具有明确的驱动力 ,即太阳系各星体作用于地 球的引力场的周期性摄动 ,及由此引起的地球轨道 参数的周期性变化和到达地球大气圈顶部太阳辐射 能量配置的周期性改变 。相对气候系统而言 ,此作 用为“外强迫 ”( external forcing) ,并可在数学上得到 较为精确的计算结果 。半个多世纪以来 ,轨道尺度 气候变化的研究论著可谓汗牛充栋 ,并且大部分研 究工作是在米兰科维奇理论 (简称米氏理论 ,下同 ) 指导下完成的 。米氏理论围绕太阳辐射能量周期性
变化如何驱动第四纪冰期 - 间冰期旋回而展开 ,明 确给 出 了 第 四 纪 冰 期 旋 回 将 如 何 变 化 的 预 言 (p rediction) ,因此是个可供“证伪 ”的理论 。
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Proceedings of the 2007 Winter Simulation ConferenceS. G. Henderson, B. Biller, M.-H. Hsieh, J. Shortle, J. D. Tew, and R. R. Barton, eds.ENABLING INDUSTRIAL SCALE SIMULATION / EMULATION MODELSMichael JohnstoneDoug CreightonSaeid NahavandiIntelligent Systems Research LabDeakin UniversityPigdons Rd, Waurn PondsVictoria AustraliaABSTRACTOLE Process Control (OPC) is an industry standard that facilitates the communication between PCs and Program-mable Logic Controllers (PLC). This communication al-lows for the testing of control systems with an emulation model. When models require faster and higher volume communications, limitations within OPC prevent this. In this paper an interface is developed to allow high speed and high volume communications between a PC and PLC enabling the emulation of larger and more complex control systems and their models. By switching control of ele-ments within the model between the model engine and the control system it is possible to use the model to validate the system design, test the real world control systems and visualise real world operation.1INTRODUCTIONA 3D model coupled with Discrete Event Simulation (DES) enables the creation of real world systems for visu-alisation and analysis. With such powerful tools complex systems can be modelled and a multitude of questions asked about the system, questions ranging from analysis of the system performance to “what if” scenarios. These models can be made more valuable with the realisation that they can be used to also test real world control systems. Emulation, testing a control system via a computer model, allows for the off line development of control programs and testing of changes and numerous benefits detailed in literature.In a complex system it may be desirable to test only parts of the control system. Glinsky et al. (2004) in their modelling of a hardware-in-the-loop system incrementally moved elements from the model into the real world as they become available. This same concept can be applied to emulation models. Control of elements within the model can be passed back and forth between the external control system and the simulation engine, allowing testing of indi-vidual parts of a control system or the entire control sys-tem.Now with a 3D model of the system being controlled by the real world control system a powerful visualisation tool is available that can be used once the system is live. Data from the control system can be used to drive the model to represent what is occurring in the real world to allow for monitoring of the system. The original model created for validation of design or analysis can be used for much more than just the original purpose.The paper is laid out as follows. Section 2 gives a re-view of the previous work in emulation while section 3 de-fines hybrid environment and how this was achieved. Sec-tion 4 gives the results for testing carried out with the interface defined in section 3, while section 5 gives a summary of the work and suggests areas where this new environment is suitable.2REVIEW OF PREVIOUS WORK INEMULATIONThe objective of emulation, or soft-commissioning as it has also been referred to as (Schludermann et al. 2000;Versteegt et al. 2002), is to connect actual real world control systems to simulation models to test the operation of those control systems (Schludermann et al. 2000;Schiess 2001;McGregor 2002). Successful emulation implementa-tions have been achieved in varying fields, for example, baggage handling systems (Rengelink et al. 2002) and ma-terial delivery systems (Lebaron et al. 1998).H istorically the testing of control systems was achieved by connecting individual test or mock-up devices to elements of the control system. This method of testing required considerable time and resources and failed to test the system as a whole (Whorter et al. 1997;Schludermann et al. 2000). Due to this lack of adequate testing options(Rengelink et al. 2002) stated that the quality of control software was adversely affected, as was lead time to de-liver a correctly functioning system. Auinger et al. (1999) describes four methods for testing control systems using a combination of simulation models and real world objects; traditional testing where control and hardware are real, emulation where control is real and hardware is simulated, reality in the loop where the control is simulated and hard-ware real and finally off-line testing where both control and hardware are simulated. Versteegt et al. (2002) took these methods further whereby the control logic in the emulation test was simulated. To avoid a “credibility gap” (McGregor 2002) with this approach, the actual software program used in the control simulation is the software pro-gram used to control the real hardware. This approach is similar to that of a PLC simulator as used in McGregor et al. (2001), and as it uses the actual control software, the problems identified by Rengelink et al. (2002) in regard to separate control programs for emulation and real world control are negated.Emulation in this form has been used successfully with real benefits to both integrators and customers (Le-baron et al. 1998;Mueller 2001). Time and money can be saved with the use of emulation, debugging controller logic can found in the lab rather than on the shop floor, saving on on-site install costs and lost production (Schiess 2001). Re-implementing control logics is not required as you are using the actual controller system (Lebaron et al. 1998;Vedapudi 2001). Other benefits include complete control system testing, a training environment for staff, re-duced installation risk (McGregor et al. 2001), increased product quality and reliability, reduced testing time and faster debug time (Whorter et al. 1997), and the ability to test without disturbing production (Jacobs et al. 2005).Simulation and emulation models share a 3D represen-tation of the system being modelled, are accurate and con-sist of realistic modelling objects. However the differences between the two define the role of emulation. Simulation models test different solutions to achieve a desired result at high speed while the aim of an emulation model is to test a control system in real time (McGregor 2002). Emulation is concerned with the control of a system and the interface to the controlling system whereas a simulation models the behaviour a system. In order to create the emulation model two things need to be decided on, an interface to the con-trol system from the simulation model and a communica-tion protocol. (McGregor 2002) used OPC (OLE Process Control) as the communication protocol and wrote an OPC client to embed into the simulation model. Since then (Ja-cobs et al. 2005) wrote directly to the PLC over a TCP/IP network in order to preserve the real world configuration of the control system. The time taken for communication between the model and control system will differ for each different communication methodology, (Lebaron et al. 1998) states the need to be careful with time difference be-tween the two elements, ideally the faster the communica-tion method the better, as this will allow for more data and larger models to be emulated. The aspects of an emulation model to take special interest in are the interface to the control system and the frequency and volume of data trans-ferred.Rengelink et al. (2002) modelled a baggage handling system, BHS using a PLC as the control system. A serial profibus connection was implemented between the PLC and the 2D model and up to 70 conveyors were being con-trolled at a time. The authors state that improvements need to be made to the model visualisation, multiple threads to share processor loads and the speed of data transfer, among others, to improve on the overall abilities of the emulation model.In the work by Jacobs et al. (2005), the MODBUS protocol running over TCP/IP was used to connect the simulator and the control system, a PLC. This provides a medium for improved data transfer over serial profibus mentioned previously. A section of memory was used as a buffer between the two elements to reduce communication, but volume of data was not mentioned. Data transfer oc-curred within with a period 30 milliseconds and this period was logged to later verify it was met. This period was achieved with the use of multiple threads, communication, simulation and animation threads. This emulation model has the framework for improved data transfer, volume and speed, via the use of Ethernet between the model and PLC and makes use of threads to share processor load in order to meet time deadlines. The model graphics are once again 2D, therefore taking similar ideas to a different simulator it would be possible to have 3D model being controlled, via Ethernet, by a PLC. The size of this model and the period of data transfer would determine the size of the model able to be emulated.Versteegt et al. (2002) developed an emulation model of AGVs in an automated material handling system. Com-munication in their model was based on a poll to the com-munication buffer every 10msec to check for any changes from the control system. The authors also found that by us-ing asynchronous communication that they were able to improve the performance of the emulation model. However they are still unsure as to how well their particular imple-mentation would scale for larger systems.3ENVIRONMENT OVERVIEWIn this section we will describe the various elements in the environment using a Baggage Handling System (BHS) as an example. In our environment we have the simulation model running on a PC, a PLC acting as the control system and the interface between the two. Time issues, sequences and control strategies are also described.3.1Simulation EnvironmentThe simulation environment is made up of elements such as conveyors, automatic tag readers (ATR), explosives de-tection systems (EDS) machines, etc, see Figure 1. These elements are controlled via signals. To simulate a convey-ors control you would typically use three signals, one input signal to control the motor and two output signals, a pin wheel to measure belt movement and a photo eye to detect bags moving along the belt. A run time parameter is used to define if the element is to be controlled by the simula-tion engine or external PLC. When the element is con-trolled by the PLC the simulation engine generates the out-put signals and responds to the input signals. Based on the output signals the PLC logics decide when to change the input signal. When the element is controlled by the simula-tion engine, the signal responses and generation are the same however there are additional logics used to respond to output signal changes to control the input signal, ie the function performed by the PLC is simulated.Figure 1: An image of a BH S showing EDS machines, ATRs and conveyors.3.1.1ThreadsAs it takes time to exchange data between the model and the PLC the model can operate in 2 distinct ways. Firstly by pausing and waiting for completion of the data ex-change or secondly, allowing a separate process to handle the data exchange while the model continues processing. The former option does not provide the control delay nor-mally seen in the real world, mentioned previously, and re-quires the simulation to run faster than real time to make up for the delay in waiting for the data exchange to com-plete. The latter allows the simulation to run at a constant rate and provides the control delay. Threads are used to make the data exchange asynchronous.The simulation has a main application thread that uses worker threads to exchange date with the PLC. At every desired time interval a read or write is sent by the main thread to a worker and polls for the workers completion. The worker thread communicates with the PLC and upon completion provides the data to the main thread where the data is acted upon. Currently there is a limitation set in the simulation software that does not allow a worker thread to update elements within the model.3.1.2TimeThe simulation model is required to run in real time as this is what the PLC is running in. So to slow down the simula-tion clock a PID controller was used. The controller adjusts simulation update rate, the rate at which graphics are up-dated. The smaller this value the slower this simulation runs.3.2Control EnvironmentA PLC forms the main component of a BHS control sys-tem. Usually more than one PLC is used for a variety of reasons such as redundancy and load. PLCs run ladder logic programs that modify outputs based on the inputs. Continuing with our example of a conveyor, the inputs would be signals from the photo eye and pin wheel, out-puts would be the signal to the motor.PLC execution is sequential. It runs programs, re-freshed inputs and outputs and responds to external com-mands. This loop is executed as quickly as possible. One loop is called the cycle time. Cycle time defines the time it will take the PLC to respond to changed input conditions and also determines the time taken to reply to external commands. The cycle time must be lower than that of the cycle time required by the pin wheel, 25ms, or else the PLC will miss pin wheel events and not correctly track conveyor movement.3.3The InterfaceThe interface is depictured in Figure 2. H ere a PC, con-nected via Ethernet to the control system, is running the model. The PLC is running a ladder logic program to con-trol the elements in the real world that have been modelled on the PC. The model connects to the PLC to exchange data, eg writes photo eye and pin wheel information and reads motor information. The model updates the simulation according to the information read from the PLC. The PC and the PLC are connected via Ethernet. The first protocol tested between the two was OPC and subsequently anotherprotocol was tested due to the performance of OPC.Figure 2:Model to PLC Interface3.3.1Communication ProtocolsOPC is made up of an OPC Server and Client. The OPC server software was provided by the PLC manufacturer. The server communicates with the PLC over Ethernet and provides a software interface for clients to connect to in order to read or write data to or from the PLC. The server software can also provide access to a PLC simulator in place of a real PLC. The OPC client software was written and embedded into the model, see Figure 3. As the model ran, the client would send/receive data from the OPCserver.Figure 3: OPC communications overview Initially a PLC Simulator was used with OPC. When a signal was changed by the PLC the OPC server would cause an event within the client, and the model would up-date as appropriate. To send data to the PLC the client ini-tially used a synchronous write command. Here the simula-tion would pause as it waited for the write command to receive a write successful response from the OPC server.When a simple model containing several elements was run, the model ran slower than real time due to this syn-chronous data exchange. The PLC simulator was replaced by a real PLC and the model run, again the model could not run at real time. The write command was changed to an asynchronous command and the simulation run. The simu-lation was able to run at real time however there was a de-lay between the PLC changing a signal and that change be-ing reflected in the model. This delay was due to an update rate parameter built into OPC that defined the smallest time interval which a signal could be updated. This mini-mum value of the update rate was 100ms, therefore OPC could not accommodate a pin wheel signal that changes every 25ms.A final test of OPC was to increase the number of elements in the model. As more elements were added to the model the OPC server started to lag. It was found that the OPC server would write data to the PLC one signal at a time. Therefore as the model increased the OPC server would queue the writing of signals to the PLC.As the PLC had Ethernet capabilities, investigation into communicating directly with it was carried out via the use of a TCP or UDP socket, where we could hopefully write faster than OPCs 100ms and in greater volume. The protocol used to communicate over sockets by the PLC is FINS, which was the communication protocol used be-tween the OPC server and the PLC. FINS allows for indi-vidual or bulk read/writes to/from the PLC, so where the OPC server would write to ten consecutive inputs ten indi-vidual times, with FINS it could be done with one write command if the five items to be written were in consecu-tive in memory locations., this is show in Figure 4.The FINS protocol over a socket provides the ability to update many signals quickly if they are consecutive in the PLC memory, It was possible to read or write 1024 signals within 3.5ms.Figure 4: Pictorially showing the reduction in communica-tion using FINS versus OPC.3.3.2Sequence of EventsAs we are interested in the status of signals over time the model must be continually reading and writing data to and from the PLC. To achieve this the model loops through the following sequence. The loop has a period of 10ms to match PLC cycle time.The model sequence:1.Determine what data is to be sente thread to send ite thread to read data from PLC4.Sleep for a typical amount of time and then startto poll the read thread for completion.5.Upon completion take action6.Sleep for remainder of cycle timePCPLC3.4ControlBy varying the employed control strategy differing envi-ronments are achieved. When all control is handled by the simulation engine we have a simulation model where the normal analyses can be performed and “what if” questions answered. This is the first and often the only purpose given to a detailed model of a system.When control is passed to the PLC we have an emula-tion model where the controller logic can be verified off-line using data input from the simulation model.If the write commands are disabled in the simulation model and control is still with the PLC we have a visuali-sation model where we can determine actions to take based on data received from the PLC. In this instance additional steps have to be performed in the model like creating bags when the PLC detects them as opposed to using previous methods.4TESTINGThe interface was tested by reading and writing from the simulation model to the PLC and capturing the packets us-ing packet capturing software. The packet capture records the transmission times of the packets, enabling the re-sponse time of the PLC to be determined.ConclusionThe benefits of using an industry standard for communica-tion between a PC and a PLC are clear. OPC provides this standard, enabling the one PC software application to communicate with multiple PLC brands provided the PLC company has an OPC server to suit. H owever when at-tempting to emulate a higher number of connections to the PLC or emulate at high speed problems are encountered. By communicating from PC to PLC directly faster and higher volume communications can be achieved. The inter-face developed enables high speed communication allow-ing emulation of larger models.were recorded for writing to the PLC. These results com-pare favorably with past response times in literature, Ja-cobs et al. (2005) has a requirement for a 30ms cycle time, while Versteegt et al. (2002) were polling a communica-tions buffer every 10ms.The testing confirms that it possible to read from the control system enough information to run a large model. If we were to read the status of the 3 signals used in conveyor control as described in section 3.1 then we would be able to interrogate the status of 340 conveyors. The data re-quested from the PLC is required to be contiguous with the memory structure of the PLC so it can be quickly obtained with one read command, or not spaced at either ends of the PLC structure so that the entire memory structure is re-quired to be read. In the case where the data required is not contiguous it is up to the PC program to isolate the re-quired data from the response packet from the PLC.5CONCLUSIONThe benefits of using an industry standard for communica-tion between a PC and a PLC are clear. OPC provides this standard, enabling the one PC software application to communicate with multiple PLC brands provided the PLC company has an OPC server to suit. H owever when at-tempting to emulate a higher number of connections to the PLC or emulate at high speed problems are encountered. By communicating from PC to PLC directly faster and higher volume communications can be achieved. The inter-face developed enables high speed communication allow-ing emulation of larger models.With the ability to read data from a PLC at high speed it is possible to drive a model purely to visualise what is occurring in the real world. This application would enable a model that was used during the design process to prove ideas and answer “what if” questions and also used to test and develop control systems, to be used as monitoring tool during production.Further work in this area would be to test against more PLC manufacturers to test that high speeds can be achieved with them also.ACKNOWLEDGMENTSThis work was funded by the Australian Research Council. REFERENCESAuinger, F., M. Vorderwinkler and G. Buchtela 1999. In-terface Driven Domain-Independent Modeling Architecture For "Soft-Commissioning" And "Re-ality in the Loop". 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The Extended Use ofSimulation in Evaluating Real-Time Control Sys-tems of Avgs and Automated Material H andling Systems. In Proceedings of the 2002 Winter Simu-lation Conference . 1659-1666. San Diego, CA.Whorter, S. M., B. Baker and G. Malan 1997. SimulationSystem for Control Software Validation. In 1997 SCS Simulation Multiconference , Atlanta.AUTHOR BIOGRAPHIES MICHAEL P. JOHNSTONE is a PhD. Candidate at De-akin University. His research focuses on the use of discrete event simulation to analyse complex networks. He received a BE (Honours) in Engineering at Deakin University. Mi-chael has several years working in IT and as a simulation consultant. His email address is <mpjoh@.au>. DOUGLAS C. CREIGHTON is a researcher in the School of Engineering and Technology at Deakin Univer-sity. The industrial focus of his work has been made possi-ble through a collaborative research program between De-akin University and Ford Motor Company, called FAST. His research interests are discrete event simulation, intelli-gent agent technology, simulation optimisation techniques, and the design and modelling of manufacturing systems. He received a BE (Honours) in Systems Engineering and a BSc in Physics from the Australian National University, where he attended as a National Undergraduate Scholar. Doug Creighton also has several years of engineering and computing experience, working with the Australian De-partment of Defence and in Federal Parliament House, and more recently as a simulation consultant. H is e-mail ad-dress is <dcreight@.au>. SAEID NAHAVANDI received BSc (H ons), MSc and aPhD in Automation and control from Durham University(UK). Professor Nahavandi holds the title of Alfred DeakinProfessor, Chair of Engineering and is the leader for the Intelligent Systems research Lab. at Deakin University (Australia). H e won the title of Young Engineer of theYear for his novel intelligent robotic end effector in 1996and has published over 300 peer reviewed papers in vari-ous International Journals and Conference and is the re-cipient of six international awards in Engineering. His re-search interests include modeling of complex systems, simulation based optimization, robotics, haptics and aug-mented reality. Professor Nahavandi is the Associate Edi-tor - IEEE Systems Journal, Editorial Consultant Boardmember – International Journal of Advanced Robotic Sys-tems, Editor (South Pacific region) - International Journalof Intelligent Automation and Soft Computing, EditorialBoard member -International Journal of Computational Intelligence. H e is a Fellow of Engineers Australia(FIEAust) and IET (FIET) and Senior Member of IEEE (SMIEEE).。