Forecast Sensitivity Analysis Using Random Perturbations使用随机扰动的预报敏感性分析38页
sensitivity analysis学术语言-概述说明以及解释
sensitivity analysis学术语言-概述说明以及解释1.引言1.1 概述在学术研究和实践中，sensitivity analysis（敏感性分析）是一种重要的方法，用于评估模型输出结果对输入参数变化的敏感程度。
通过分析模型输入参数的变化对输出结果的影响，可以帮助研究人员更好地理解模型的稳定性和可靠性。
敏感性分析不仅可以帮助我们识别哪些参数对模型的结果影响最大，还可以帮助我们优化模型，提高模型的预测能力和可靠性。
本文将深入探讨sensitivity analysis的概念、在学术研究中的重要性以及方法及应用。
通过对这些内容的综合讨论，读者将能够了解敏感性分析在科研领域中的广泛应用和意义。
1.2 文章结构文章结构部分的内容可以按照以下内容进行编写：文章结构部分旨在介绍整篇文章的组织结构，为读者提供一个整体的概览。
本文共分为三大部分：引言、正文和结论。
在引言部分，我们将首先对sensitivity analysis的概念进行概述，说明其在学术研究中的重要性，并阐述本文的目的。
接着，正文部分将对sensitivity analysis的概念进行详细解释，阐述其在学术研究中的重要性，并介绍其方法及应用。
最后，在结论部分，我们将总结文章的主要内容，展望sensitivity analysis未来的发展方向，以及得出结论。
通过这样明确的结构安排，读者可以更清晰地了解本文的主要内容和逻辑顺序，有助于他们更好地理解和消化文章内容。
1.3 目的本文的主要目的在于探讨sensitivity analysis在学术研究中的重要性和应用。
通过对sensitivity analysis概念、方法及其在学术研究中的具体应用进行深入分析，希望能够进一步加深对该分析方法的理解，为研究人员提供更好的参考和指导。
同时，也旨在探讨sensitivity analysis在未来的发展方向和应用前景，为学术界提供启示和启发。
2敏感性分析法（SensitivityAnalysisMethod）
敏感性分析法（Sensitivity Analysis Method）[编辑]什么是敏感性分析法 敏感性分析法是指从众多不确定性因素中找出对投资项目经济效益指标有重要影响的敏感性因素，并分析、测算其对项目经济效益指标的影响程度和敏感性程度，进而判断项目承受风险能力的一种不确定性分析方法。
敏感性分析有助于确定哪些风险对项目具有最大的潜在影响。
它把所有其他不确定因素保持在基准值的条件下，考察项目的每项要素的不确定性对目标产生多大程度的影响。
[编辑]敏感性分析法的目的 1、找出影响项目经济效益变动的敏感性因素，分析敏感性因素变动的原因，并为进一步进行不确定性分析(如概率分析)提供依据； 2、研究不确定性因素变动如引起项目经济效益值变动的范围或极限值，分析判断项目承担风险的能力； 3、比较多方案的敏感性大小，以便在经济效益值相似的情况下，从中选出不敏感的投资方案。
根据不确定性因素每次变动数目的多少，敏感性分析可以分为单因素敏感性分析和多因素敏感性分析。
[编辑]敏感性分析法的分类[1] 根据不确定性因素每次变动数目的多少，敏感性分析法可以分为单因素敏感性分析法和多因素敏感性分析法。
1、单因素敏感性分析法 每次只变动一个因素而其他因素保持不变时所做的敏感性分析法，称为单因素敏感性分析法。
例：（计算题）某公司规划项目的投资收益率为21.15%，财务基准收益率为12%。
试对价格、投资在±20%，成本、产量在±10%范围进行敏感性分析。
解：价格变化±1%，投资收益率变化-0.67%～0.62%。
其他如上。
单因素敏感性分析在计算特定不确定因素对项目经济效益影响时，须假定其它因素不变，实际上这种假定很难成立。
可能会有两个或两个以上的不确定因素在同时变动，此时单因素敏感性分析就很难准确反映项目承担风险的状况，因此尚必须进行多因素敏感性分析。
2、多因素敏感性分析法 多因素敏感性分析法是指在假定其它不确定性因素不变条件下，计算分析两种或两种以上不确定性因素同时发生变动，对项目经济效益值的影响程度，确定敏感性因素及其极限值。
Sensitivity Analysis (LP Section 3)敏感性分析(LP 3节)_OK
Standard Computer Output
Software packages such as LINDO provide the following LP information: Information about the objective function: – its optimal value – coefficient ranges (ranges of optimality) Information about the decision variables: – their optimal values – their reduced costs Information about the constraints: – the amount of slack or surplus – the dual prices – right-hand side ranges (ranges of feasibility)
ROW SLACK OR SURPLUS 2) 1.000000 3) 0.000000 4) 0.000000 5) 5.000000 6) 3.000000
DUAL PRICES 0.000000 2.000000 1.000000 0.000000 0.000000
11
Example 1: Question 1
9
Example 1: Question 1 (Using LINDO)
Question 1 (In general) If a single objective function coefficient changes, will the current solution still be optimal? If yes, what is the new objective function value? To answer the first part of this question, you must locate the section of the spreadsheet that discusses objective coefficient ranges. This section is highlighted on the following output slides. The output shows that the objective function coefficient of x1 (currently 5) can increase by as much as 2 and decrease by as much as 0.333333 and the optimal solution will remain optimal. Thus provided the coefficient of x1 is between 4.666667 and 7, the optimal solution will remain x*1 =5, x*2 =3. The objective function coefficient of x2 can vary between 5 and 7.5 and the current solution will remain optimal.
供应链管理第三版unit8习题与答案
Chapter 8Aggregate Planning in the Supply ChainTrue/False1.The goal of aggregate planning is to satisfy demand in a way that minimizes profit.Answer: FalseDifficulty: Easy2.Aggregate planning is a process by which a company determines levels of capacity,production, subcontracting, inventory, stockouts, and even pricing over a specified time horizon.Answer: TrueDifficulty: Moderate3.Aggregate planning solves problems involving aggregate decisions rather than stockkeeping unit (SKU) level decisions.Answer: TrueDifficulty: Easy4.Traditionally, much of aggregate planning is focused within an enterprise and may notalways be seen as a part of supply chain management.Answer: TrueDifficulty: Moderate5.Aggregate planning is an important supply chain issue because, to be effective, itrequires inputs from throughout the supply chain, but its results have little impact onthe supply chain.Answer: FalseDifficulty: Moderate6.Short-term production serves as a broad blueprint for operations and establishes theparameters within which aggregate planning decisions are made.Answer: FalseDifficulty: Easy7.The aggregate planning problem is concerned with determining the production level,inventory level, and capacity level (internal and outsourced) for each period thatmaximizes the firm’s profit over the planning horizon.Answer: TrueDifficulty: Moderate8.To create an aggregate plan, a company must specify the planning horizon for the planand the duration of each period within the planning horizon.Answer: TrueDifficulty: Easy9. A planning horizon is usually between three and five years.Answer: FalseDifficulty: Moderate10. A poor aggregate plan can result in improved sales and profits if the available inventoryand capacity are unable to meet demand.Answer: FalseDifficulty: Easy11. A poor aggregate plan may result in a large amount of excess inventory and capacity,thereby raising costs.Answer: TrueDifficulty: Moderate12.The aggregate planner must make a trade-off between capacity, inventory, and backlogcosts.Answer: TrueDifficulty: Moderate13.An aggregate plan that increases one cost typically results in the increase of the othertwo.Answer: FalseDifficulty: Moderate14.The time flexible strategy is where the production rate is synchronized with the demandrate by varying machine capacity or hiring and laying off employees as the demand rate varies.Answer: FalseDifficulty: Hard15.The time flexible strategy is where workforce (capacity) is kept stable but the number ofhours worked is varied over time in an effort to synchronize production with demand.Answer: TrueDifficulty: Moderate16.The mixed strategy is where a stable machine capacity and workforce are maintainedwith a constant output rate with inventory levels fluctuating over time.Answer: FalseDifficulty: Hard17.Most strategies that an aggregate planner actually uses are in combination, and arereferred to as mixed strategies.Answer: TrueDifficulty: Easy18. A highly effective tool for a company to use when it tries to maximize profits while beingsubjected to a series of constraints is aggregate programming.Answer: FalseDifficulty: Moderate19.To improve the quality of these aggregate plans, forecast errors must be taken intoaccount when formulating aggregate plans.Answer: TrueDifficulty: Moderate20.Forecasting errors are dealt with in aggregate plans using either safety backlog or safetycapacity.Answer: FalseDifficulty: Moderate21.Safety inventory is defined as inventory held to satisfy demand that is higher thanforecasted.Answer: TrueDifficulty: Easy22.Safety capacity is defined as capacity used to satisfy demand that is lower thanforecasted.Answer: FalseDifficulty: Easypanies should work with downstream partners to produce forecasts and withupstream partners to determine constraints when doing aggregate planning.Answer: TrueDifficulty: Easy24.The aggregate plan should be viewed primarily as an in-house tool that does not need tobe communicated to supply chain partners.Answer: FalseDifficulty: Easy25.Given that forecasts are always wrong to some degree, the aggregate plan needs tohave some flexibility built into it if it is to be useful.Answer: TrueDifficulty: Moderate26. A manager should perform sensitivity analysis on the inputs into an aggregate plan tochoose the best solution for the range of possibilities that could occur.Answer: TrueDifficulty: Moderate27.As inputs into the aggregate plan change, managers do not need to make changes to theaggregate plan.Answer: FalseDifficulty: Easy28.As capacity utilization increases, it becomes less important to perform aggregateplanning.Answer: FalseDifficulty: ModerateMultiple Choice1.The process by which a company determines levels of capacity, production,subcontracting, inventory, stockouts, and even pricing over a specified time horizon isa.aggregate planning.b.detail planning.c.inventory planning.d.sales planning.e.all of the aboveAnswer: aDifficulty: Moderate2.The goal of aggregate planning is toa.dissatisfy customers in a way that maximizes profit.b.dissatisfy customers in a way that minimizes profit.c.satisfy demand in a way that maximizes profit.d.satisfy demand in a way that minimizes profit.e.none of the aboveAnswer: cDifficulty: Easy3.Aggregate planning solves problems involvinga.aggregate decisions and stock keeping unit (SKU) level decisions.b.aggregate decisions or stock keeping unit (SKU) level decisions.c.aggregate decisions rather than stock keeping unit (SKU) level decisions.d.stock keeping unit (SKU) level decisions rather than aggregate decisions.e. b and c onlyAnswer: cDifficulty: Easy4.Aggregate planning, to be effective, requires inputs froma.all customers.b.all departments.c.all suppliers.d.throughout the supply chain.e.throughout the company.Answer: dDifficulty: Moderate5.Much of aggregate planning has traditionally been focuseda.on short-term production scheduling.b.on customer relationship management.c.within an enterprise.d.beyond enterprise boundaries.e.all of the aboveAnswer: cDifficulty: Moderate6.Which of the following are not operational parameters the aggregate planner isconcerned witha.production rateb.workforcec.overtimed.backorderse.inventory on handAnswer: dDifficulty: Moderate7.The operational parameter concerned with the number of units completed per unit time(such as per week or per month) isa.production rate.b.workforce.c.overtime.d.backlog.e.inventory on hand.Answer: aDifficulty: Easy8.The operational parameter concerned with the number of workers/units of capacityneeded for production isa.production rate.b.workforce.c.overtime.d.backlog.e.inventory on hand.Answer: bDifficulty: Easy9.The operational parameter concerned with the amount of overtime production plannedisa.production rate.b.workforce.c.overtime.d.backlog.e.inventory on hand.Answer: cDifficulty: Easy10.The operational parameter concerned with demand not satisfied in the period in whichit arises, but carried over to future periods isa.production rate.b.workforce.c.overtime.d.backlog.e.inventory on hand.Answer: dDifficulty: Easy11.The operational parameter concerned with the planned inventory carried over thevarious periods in the planning horizon isa.production rate.b.workforce.c.overtime.d.backlog.e.inventory on hand.Answer: eDifficulty: Easy12.The operational parameter concerned with the number of units of machine capacityneeded for production isa.machine capacity level.b.subcontracting.c.overtime.d.backlog.e.inventory on hand.Answer: aDifficulty: Easy13.The operational parameter concerned with the subcontracted capacity required overthe planning horizon isa.machine capacity level.b.subcontracting.c.overtime.d.backlog.e.inventory on hand.Answer: cDifficulty: Easy14.The aggregate plana.serves as a broad blueprint for operations.b.establishes the parameters within which short-term production and distributiondecisions are made.c.allows the supply chain to alter capacity allocations and change supply contracts.d.all of the abovee. b and c onlyAnswer: dDifficulty: Moderate15.Aggregate planning is concerned with determininga.the production level, sales level, and capacity for each period.b.the demand level, inventory level, and capacity for each period.c.the production level, inventory level, and capacity for each period.d.the production level, staffing level, and capacity for each period.e.none of the aboveAnswer: cDifficulty: Moderate16.To create an aggregate plan, a company must specifya.the planning horizon for the plan.b.the duration of each period within the planning horizon.c.key information required.d.all of the abovee. a and b onlyAnswer: dDifficulty: Moderate17.The planning horizon isa.the time period over which the aggregate plan is to produce a solution.b.the duration of each time period in the aggregate plan.c.the length of time required to produce the aggregate plan.d.the solution to the aggregate plan.e.none of the aboveAnswer: aDifficulty: Easy18.The length of the planning horizon is usually betweena.one and three months.b.three and eighteen months.c.one and three years.d.three and five years.e.none of the aboveAnswer: bDifficulty: Moderate19.Which of the following is not information needed by the aggregate plannera.demand forecast for each period in the planning horizonb.production costsbor costsd.cost of subcontracting productione.cost of changing the demand forecastAnswer: eDifficulty: Moderate20.The cost of changing capacity includes thea.cost of adding machine capacity.b.cost of reducing machine capacity.c.cost of hiring workforce.d.cost of laying off workforce.e.all of the aboveAnswer: eDifficulty: Easy21.Which of the following is not a cost of changing capacitya.cost of adding machine capacityb.cost of hiring workforcec.cost of laying off workforced.cost of overtimee.cost of reducing machine capacityAnswer: dDifficulty: Moderate22.Which of the following is not a constraint the aggregate planner needs to considera.limits on stockouts and backlogsb.limits on overtimec.limits on sales commissionsd.limits on layoffse.limits on capital availableAnswer: cDifficulty: Moderate23. A poor aggregate plan can result ina.appropriate inventory levels.b.efficient use of capacity.c.better sales and lost profits.d.lost sales and lost profits.e.lost sales and better profits.Answer: dDifficulty: Hard24.The fundamental trade-offs available to an aggregate planner are betweena.capability, inventory, and backlog costs.b.capability, inventory, and sales costs.c.capacity, inventory, and backlog costs.d.capacity, inventory, and sales costs.e.none of the aboveAnswer: cDifficulty: Easy25.Which of the following is not a distinct aggregate planning strategy for achievingbalance between capacity, inventory, and backlog costsa.adjustable strategyb.Chase strategyc.level strategyd.mixed strategye.time flexible strategyAnswer: aDifficulty: Easy26.The strategy where the production rate is synchronized with the demand rate by varyingmachine capacity or hiring and laying off employees as the demand rate varies is thea.adjustable strategy.b.Chase strategy.c.level strategy.d.mixed strategy.e.time flexible strategy.Answer: bDifficulty: Moderate27.The strategy where workforce (capacity) is kept stable but the number of hours workedis varied over time in an effort to synchronize production with demand is thea.adjustable strategy.b.Chase strategy.c.level strategy.d.mixed strategy.e.time flexible strategy.Answer: eDifficulty: Moderate28.The strategy where a stable machine capacity and workforce are maintained with aconstant output rate, with inventory levels fluctuating over time, is thea.adjustable strategy.b.Chase strategy.c.level strategy.d.mixed strategy.e.time flexible strategy.Answer: cDifficulty: Hard29.Most strategies that an aggregate planner actually uses are in combination and arereferred to as thea.adjustable strategy.b.Chase strategy.c.level strategy.d.mixed strategy.e.time flexible strategy.Answer: dDifficulty: Easy30. A highly effective tool for a company to use when it tries to maximize profits while beingsubjected to a series of constraints isa.aggregate programming.b.distribution programming.c.production programming.d.linear programming.e.manufacturing programming.Answer: dDifficulty: Moderate31.When formulating aggregate plans,a.forecast errors have no impact.b.forecast errors must be taken into account.c.forecast accuracy is assumed.d.forecast accuracy is not a factor.e.none of the aboveAnswer: bDifficulty: Moderate32.Forecasting errors are dealt with usinga.safety backlog.b.safety capacity.c.safety inventory.d.all of the abovee. b and c onlyAnswer: eDifficulty: Moderate33.Inventory held to satisfy demand that is higher than forecasted isa.safety backlog.b.safety capacity.c.safety inventory.d.safety sales.e.safety workforce.Answer: cDifficulty: Easy34.Capacity used to satisfy demand that is higher than forecasted isa.safety backlog.b.safety capacity.c.safety inventory.d.safety sales.e.safety workforce.Answer: bDifficulty: Easy35.Which of the following is an approach a company can use to create a buffer for forecasterror using safety inventorya.overtimeb.carry extra workforce permanentlyc.build and carry extra inventoriesd.subcontractinge.purchase capacity or product from an open or spot marketAnswer: aDifficulty: Easy36.Which of the following is not an approach a company can use to create a buffer forforecast error using safety capacitya.overtimeb.carry extra workforce permanentlyc.build and carry extra inventoriesd.subcontractinge.purchase capacity or product from an open or spot marketAnswer: cDifficulty: Easy37.Aggregate planning should consider information froma.only the enterprise as its breadth of scope.b.downstream partners to produce forecasts.c.upstream partners to determine constraints.d.all of the abovee. b and c onlyAnswer: dDifficulty: Easy38.The quality of the aggregate plan can be improved by using information froma.only the local firm.b.only downstream partners.c.only upstream partners.d.all parts of the supply chain.e.none of the aboveAnswer: bDifficulty: Moderate39.The aggregate plan should be communicated toa.only the local firm.b.only downstream partners.c.only upstream partners.d.all supply chain partners who will be affected by it.e.none of the aboveAnswer: cDifficulty: Moderate40.The aggregate plan needs toa.be a final product because changes are disruptive to the supply chain.b.be considered fixed because forecasts are usually accurate.c.have some flexibility built into it because forecasts are always wrong.d.have some flexibility built into it because forecasts are usually right.e.none of the aboveAnswer: cDifficulty: Moderate41.How frequently should the aggregate plan be reruna.weeklyb.monthlyc.every 3 to 8 monthsd.as inputs to the aggregate plan changee.neverAnswer: dDifficulty: Hard42.As capacity utilization increases,a.it becomes less important to perform aggregate planning.b.it becomes more important to perform aggregate planning.c.it does not affect the importance of performing aggregate planning.d.it lessens the importance of aggregate planning.e.none of the aboveAnswer: bDifficulty: ModerateEssay/Problems1.Discuss the primary objective and operational parameters of aggregate planning.Answer: The goal of aggregate planning is to satisfy demand in a way that maximizesprofit. Aggregate planning is a process by which a company determines levels ofcapacity, production, subcontracting, inventory, stockouts, and even pricing over aspecified time horizon. The aggregate planner’s main objective is to identify thefollowing operational parameters over the specified time horizon:Production rate: the number of units completed per unit time (such as per week or per month).Workforce: the number of workers/units of capacity needed for production.Overtime: the amount of overtime production planned.Machine capacity level: the number of units of machine capacity needed for production.Subcontracting: the subcontracted capacity required over the planning horizon.Backlog: demand not satisfied in the period in which it arises but carried over to future periods.Inventory on hand: the planned inventory carried over the various periods in theplanning horizon.The aggregate plan serves as a broad blueprint for operations and establishes theparameters within which short-term production and distribution decisions are made.The aggregate plan allows the supply chain to alter capacity allocations and changesupply contracts.Difficulty: Moderate2.Discuss the information required for aggregate planning.Answer: An aggregate planner requires the following information:Demand forecast F t for each Period t in the planning horizon that extends over TperiodsProduction costsLabor costs, regular time ($/hour), and overtime costs ($/hour)Cost of subcontracting production ($/unit or $/hour)Cost of changing capacity; specifically, cost of hiring/laying off workforce ($/worker)and cost of adding or reducing machine capacity ($/machine)Labor/machine hours required per unitInventory holding cost ($/unit/period)Stockout or backlog cost ($/unit/period)Constraints:Limits on overtimeLimits on layoffsLimits on capital availableLimits on stockouts and backlogsConstraints from suppliers to the enterpriseThis information is used to create an aggregate plan that in turn helps a company make the following determinations:Production quantity from regular time, overtime, and subcontracted time: usedto determine number of workers and supplier purchase levels.Inventory held: used to determine how much warehouse space and workingcapital is needed.Backlog/stockout quantity: used to determine what the customer service levelswill be.Workforce hired/laid off: used to determine any labor issues that will beencountered.Machine capacity increase/decrease: used to determine if new productionequipment needs to be purchased or idled.The quality of an aggregate plan has a significant impact on the profitability of a firm. A poor aggregate plan can result in lost sales and lost profits if the available inventory and capacity are unable to meet demand. A poor aggregate plan may also result in a largeamount of excess inventory and capacity, thereby raising costs. Therefore, aggregateplanning is a very important tool in helping a supply chain maximize profitability.Difficulty: Hard3.Explain the basic strategies that an aggregate planner has available to balance thevarious costs and meet demand.Answer: There are essentially three distinct aggregate planning strategies for achieving balance between these costs. These strategies involve trade-offs between capitalinvestment, workforce size, work hours, inventory, and backlogs/lost sales. Moststrategies that a planner actually uses are a combination of these three and are referred to as mixed strategies. The three strategies are as follows:1. Chase strategy—using capacity as the lever: With this strategy, the production rate issynchronized with the demand rate by varying machine capacity or hiring and laying off employees as the demand rate varies. In practice, achieving this synchronization can be very problematic because of the difficulty in varying capacity and workforce on shortnotice. This strategy can be expensive to implement if the cost of varying machine orlabor capacity over time is high. It can also have a significant negative impact on themorale of the workforce. The Chase strategy results in low levels of inventory in thesupply chain and high levels of change in capacity and workforce. It should be usedwhen the cost of carrying inventory is very expensive and costs to change levels ofmachine and labor capacity are low.2. Time flexibility strategy—using utilization as the lever: This strategy may be used ifthere is excess machine capacity ., if machines are not used twenty four hours a day,seven days a week). In this case, the workforce (capacity) is kept stable but the number of hours worked is varied over time in an effort to synchronize production with demand.A planner can use variable amounts of overtime or a flexible schedule to achieve thissynchronization. Although this strategy does require that the workforce be flexible, itavoids some of the problems associated with the Chase strategy, most notably changing the size of the workforce. This strategy results in low levels of inventory but with lower average utilization. It should be used when inventory carrying costs are relatively highand machine capacity is relatively inexpensive.3. Level strategy—using inventory as the lever: With this strategy, a stable machinecapacity and workforce are maintained with a constant output rate. Shortages andsurpluses result in inventory levels fluctuating over time. Here production is notsynchronized with demand. Either inventories are built up in anticipation of futuredemand or backlogs are carried over from high- to low-demand periods. Employeesbenefit from stable working conditions. A drawback associated with this strategy is that large inventories may accumulate and customer orders may be delayed. This strategykeeps capacity and costs of changing capacity relatively low. It should be used wheninventory carrying and backlog costs are relatively low.Difficulty: Moderate4.Discuss key issues to be considered when implementing aggregate planning.Answer: 1. Think beyond the enterprise to the entire supply chain. Most aggregateplanning done today takes only the enterprise as its breadth of scope. However, thereare many factors outside the enterprise throughout the supply chain that candramatically impact the optimal aggregate plan. Therefore, avoid the trap of onlythinking about your enterprise when aggregate planning. Work with partnersdownstream to produce forecasts, with upstream partners to determine constraints,and with any other supply chain entities that can improve the quality of the inputs into the aggregate plan. As the plan is only as good as the quality of the inputs, using thesupply chain to increase the quality of the inputs will greatly improve the quality of the aggregate plan. Also make sure to communicate the aggregate plan to all supply chainpartners who will be affected by it.2. Make plans flexible because forecasts are always wrong. Aggregate plans are basedon forecasts of future demand. Given that these forecasts are always wrong to somedegree, the aggregate plan needs to have some flexibility built into it if it is to be useful.By building flexibility into the plan, when future demand changes, or other changesoccur, such as increases in costs, the plan can appropriately adjust to handle the new situation. A manager should perform sensitivity analysis on the inputs into an aggregate plan. Using sensitivity analysis on the inputs into the aggregate plan will enable the planner to choose the best solution for the range of possibilities that could occur.3. Rerun the aggregate plan as new data emerges. Aggregate plans provide a map for the next three to eighteen months. This does not mean that a firm should only run aggregate plans once every three to eighteen months. As inputs into the aggregate plan change, managers should use the latest values of these inputs and rerun the aggregate plan. By using the latest inputs, the plan will avoid suboptimization based on old data and will produce a better solution. For instance, as new demand forecasts become available, aggregate plans should be reevaluated.4. Use aggregate planning as capacity utilization increases. Surprisingly, many companies do not create aggregate plans and instead rely solely on orders from their distributors or warehouses to determine their production schedules. These orders are driven either by actual demand or through inventory management algorithms. If a company has no trouble efficiently meeting demand this way, then one could claim the lack of aggregate planning may not significantly harm the company. However, when utilization becomes high and capacity is an issue, relying on orders to set the production schedule can lead to capacity problems. When utilization is high, the likelihood of producing for all the orders as they arrive is very low. Planning needs to be done to best utilize the capacity to meet the forecasted demand. Therefore, as capacity utilization increases, it becomes more important to perform aggregate planning.Difficulty: Moderate。
公司理财精要版原书第12版习题库答案Ross12e_Chapter11_TB
Fundamentals of Corporate Finance, 12e (Ross)Chapter 11 Project Analysis and Evaluation1) Forecasting risk is defined as the possibility that:A) some proposed projects will be rejected.B) some proposed projects will be temporarily delayed.C) incorrect decisions will be made due to erroneous cash flow projections.D) some projects will be mutually exclusive.E) tax rates could change over the life of a project.2) The key means of defending against forecasting risk is to:A) rely primarily on the net present value method of analysis.B) increase the discount rate assigned to a project.C) shorten the life of a project.D) identify sources of value within a project.E) ignore any potential salvage value that might be realized.3) Steve is fairly cautious when analyzing a new project and thus he projects the most optimistic, the most realistic, and the most pessimistic outcome that can reasonably be expected. Which type of analysis is he using?A) Simulation testingB) Sensitivity analysisC) Break-even analysisD) Rationing analysisE) Scenario analysis4) Scenario analysis is best suited to accomplishing which one of the following when analyzing a project?A) Determining how fixed costs affect NPVB) Estimating the residual value of fixed assetsC) Identifying the potential range of reasonable outcomesD) Determining the minimal level of sales required to break-even on an accounting basisE) Determining the minimal level of sales required to break-even on a financial basis5) Which one of the following will be used in the computation of the best-case analysis of a proposed project?A) Minimal number of units that are expected to be produced and soldB) The lowest expected salvage value that can be obtained for a project's fixed assetsC) The most anticipated sales price per unitD) The lowest variable cost per unit that can reasonably be expectedE) The highest level of fixed costs that is actually anticipated6) The base case values used in scenario analysis are the values considered to be the most:A) optimistic.B) desired by management.C) pessimistic.D) likely to create a positive net present value.E) likely to occur.7) Which of the following variables will be forecast at their highest expected level under a best-case scenario?A) Fixed costs and units valueB) Variable costs and sales priceC) Fixed costs and sales priceD) Salvage value and units soldE) Initial cost and variable costs8) When you assign the lowest anticipated sales price and the highest anticipated costs to a project, you are analyzing the project under the condition known as:A) best-case sensitivity analysis.B) worst-case sensitivity analysis.C) best-case scenario analysis.D) worst-case scenario analysis.E) base-case scenario analysis.9) Which one of the following statements concerning scenario analysis is correct?A) The pessimistic case scenario determines the maximum loss, in current dollars, that a firm could possibly incur from a given project.B) Scenario analysis defines the entire range of results that could be realized from a proposed investment project.C) Scenario analysis determines which variable has the greatest impact on a project's final outcome.D) Scenario analysis helps managers analyze various outcomes that are possible given reasonable ranges for each of the assumptions.E) Management is guaranteed a positive outcome for a project when the worst-case scenario produces a positive NPV.10) Sensitivity analysis determines the:A) range of possible outcomes given that most variables are reliable only within a stated range.B) degree to which the net present value reacts to changes in a single variable.C) net present value range that can be realized from a proposed project.D) degree to which a project relies on its initial costs.E) ideal ratio of variable costs to fixed costs for profit maximization.11) Assume you graph a project's net present value given various sales quantities. Which one of the following is correct regarding the resulting function?A) The steepness of the function relates to the project's degree of operating leverage.B) The steeper the function, the less sensitive the project is to changes in the sales quantity.C) The resulting function will be a hyperbole.D) The resulting function will include only positive values.E) The slope of the function measures the sensitivity of the net present value to a change in sales quantity.12) As the degree of sensitivity of a project to a single variable rises, the:A) less important the variable is to the final outcome of the project.B) less volatile the project's net present value is to that variable.C) greater is the importance of accurately predicting the value of that variable.D) greater is the sensitivity of the project to the other variable inputs.E) less volatile is the project's outcome.13) A firm's managers realize they cannot monitor all aspects of their projects but do want to maintain a constant focus on the key aspect of each project in an attempt to maximize their firm's value. Given this specific desire, which type of analysis should they require for each project and why?A) Sensitivity analysis; to identify the key variable that affects a project's profitabilityB) Scenario analysis; to guarantee each project will be profitableC) Cash breakeven; to ensure the firm recoups its initial investmentD) Accounting breakeven; to ensure each project earns its required rate of returnE) Financial breakeven; to ensure each project has a positive NPV14) Which type of analysis identifies the variable, or variables, that are most critical to the success of a particular project?A) ScenarioB) SimulationC) Break-evenD) SensitivityE) Cash flow15) Simulation analysis is based on assigning a ________ and analyzing the results.A) narrow range of values to a single variableB) narrow range of values to multiple variables simultaneouslyC) wide range of values to a single variableD) wide range of values to multiple variables simultaneouslyE) single value to each of the variables16) Which one of the following types of analysis is the most complex to conduct?A) ScenarioB) Break-evenC) SensitivityD) Degree of operating leverageE) Simulation17) Scenario analysis is defined as the:A) determination of the initial cash outlay required to implement a project.B) determination of changes in NPV estimates when what-if questions are posed.C) isolation of the effect that a single variable has on the NPV of a project.D) separation of a project's sunk costs from its opportunity costs.E) analysis of the effects that a project's terminal cash flows has on the project's NPV.18) An analysis of the change in a project's NPV when a single variable is changed is called ________ analysis.A) forecastingB) scenarioC) sensitivityD) simulationE) break-even19) Combining scenario analysis with sensitivity analysis can yield a crude form of ________ analysis.A) forecastingB) combinedC) complexD) simulationE) break-even20) Variable costs can be defined as the costs that:A) remain constant for all time periods.B) remain constant over the short run.C) vary directly with sales.D) are classified as noncash expenses.E) are inversely related to the number of units sold.21) Fixed costs:A) change as a small quantity of output produced changes.B) are constant over the short-run regardless of the quantity of output produced.C) are defined as the change in total costs when one more unit of output is produced.D) are subtracted from sales to compute the contribution margin.E) can be ignored in scenario analysis since they are constant over the life of a project.22) The change in revenue that occurs when one more unit of output is sold is referred to as:A) marginal revenue.B) average revenue.C) total revenue.D) erosion.E) scenario revenue.23) The change in variable costs that occurs when production is increased by one unit is referred to as the:A) marginal cost.B) average cost.C) total cost.D) scenario cost.E) net cost.24) By definition, which one of the following must equal zero at the accounting break-even point?A) Net present valueB) DepreciationC) Contribution marginD) Net incomeE) Operating cash flow25) Which one of these combinations must increase the contribution margin?A) Increasing both the sales price and the variable cost per unitB) Increasing the sales quantity and increasing the variable cost per unitC) Decreasing the sales price and increasing the sales quantityD) Decreasing both fixed costs and depreciation expenseE) Increasing the sales price and decreasing the variable cost per unit26) Which of the following are inversely related to variable costs per unit?A) Sales quantity and sales priceB) Net profit per unit and sales quantityC) Operating cash flow and sales quantityD) Operating cash flow per unit and contribution margin per unitE) Contribution margin per unit and marginal costs27) Steve, the sales manager for TL Products, wants to sponsor a one-week "Customer Appreciation Sale" where the firm offers to sell additional units of a product at the lowest price possible without negatively affecting the firm's profits. Which one of the following represents the price that should be charged for the additional units during this sale?A) Average variable costB) Average total costC) Average total revenueD) Marginal revenueE) Marginal cost28) The president of Global Wholesalers would like to offer special sale prices to the firm's best customers under the following terms:1. The prices will apply only to units purchased in excess of the quantity normally purchased bya customer.2. The units purchased must be paid for in cash at the time of sale.3. The total quantity sold under these terms cannot exceed the excess capacity of the firm.4. The net profit of the firm should not be affected.5. The prices will be in effect for one week only.Given these conditions, the special sale price should be set equal to the:A) average variable cost of materials only.B) average cost of all variable inputs.C) sensitivity value of the variable costs.D) marginal cost of materials only.E) marginal cost of all variable inputs.29) The contribution margin per unit is equal to the:A) sales price per unit minus the total costs per unit.B) variable cost per unit minus the fixed cost per unit.C) sales price per unit minus the variable cost per unit.D) pretax profit per unit.E) aftertax profit per unit.30) Which of the following values will be equal to zero when a firm is operating at the accounting break-even level of output?A) IRR and OCFB) Net income and contribution marginC) IRR and net incomeD) OCF and NPVE) Net income and NPV31) A decrease in which one of the following will increase the accounting break-even quantity? Assume straight-line depreciation is used and ignore taxes.A) Sales price per unitB) Management salariesC) Variable labor costs per unitD) Initial fixed asset purchasesE) Fixed costs32) Webster Iron Works started a new project last year. As it turns out, the project has been operating at its accounting break-even level of output and is now expected to continue at that level over its lifetime. Given this, you know that the project:A) will never pay back.B) has a zero net present value.C) is operating at a higher level than if it were operating at its cash break-even level.D) is operating at a higher level than if it were operating at its financial break-even level.E) is lowering the total net income of the firm.33) A project that has a payback period exactly equal to the project's life is operating at:A) its maximum capacity.B) the financial break-even point.C) the cash break-even point.D) the accounting break-even point.E) a zero level of output.34) Valerie just completed analyzing a project. Her analysis indicates that the project will have a six-year life and require an initial cash outlay of $120,000. Annual sales are estimated at $189,000 and the tax rate is 21 percent. The net present value is negative $120,000. Based on this analysis, the project is expected to operate at the:A) maximum possible level of production.B) minimum possible level of production.C) financial break-even point.D) accounting break-even point.E) cash break-even point.35) A project that has a projected IRR of negative 100 percent will also have a(n):A) discounted payback period equal to the life of the project.B) operating cash flow that is positive and equal to the depreciation.C) net present value that is negative and equal to the initial investment.D) payback period that is exactly equal to the life of the project.E) net present value that is equal to zero.36) Which one of the following characteristics relates to the cash break-even point for a given project?A) The project never pays back.B) The discounted payback period equals the project's life.C) The NPV is equal to zero.D) The IRR equals the required rate of return.E) The OCF is equal to the depreciation expense.37) When the operating cash flow of a project is equal to zero, the project is operating at the:A) maximum possible level of production.B) minimum possible level of production.C) financial break-even point.D) accounting break-even point.E) cash break-even point.38) Which one of the following represents the level of output where a project produces a rate of return just equal to its requirement?A) Capital break-evenB) Cash break-evenC) Accounting break-evenD) Financial break-evenE) Internal break-even39) Which one of these is most associated with an IRR of negative 100 percent?A) Degree of operating leverageB) Accounting break-even pointC) Contribution marginD) Simulation analysisE) Cash break-even point40) You would like to know the minimum level of sales that is needed for a project to be accepted based on its net present value. To determine that sales level you should compute the:A) contribution margin per unit and set that margin equal to the fixed costs per unit.B) degree of operating leverage at the current sales level.C) accounting break-even point.D) cash break-even point.E) financial break-even point.41) Theresa is analyzing a project that currently has a projected NPV of zero. Which one of the following changes that she is considering is most apt to cause that project to produce a positive NPV instead? Consider each change independently.A) Decrease the sales priceB) Increase the materials cost per unitC) Decrease the labor hours per unit producedD) Decrease the sales quantityE) Increase the amount of the initial investment in net working capital42) Given the following, which feature identifies the most desirable level of output for a project?A) Operating cash flow equal to the depreciation expenseB) Payback period equal to the project's lifeC) Discounted payback period equal to the project's lifeD) Zero IRRE) Zero operating cash flow43) Assume both the discount and tax rates are positive values. At the financial break-even point, the:A) payback period equals the project's life.B) NPV is negative.C) OCF is zero.D) contribution margin per unit equals the fixed costs per unit.E) IRR equals the required return.44) By definition, which one of the following must equal zero at the cash break-even point?A) Net present valueB) Internal rate of returnC) Contribution marginD) Net incomeE) Operating cash flow45) Assume a project has a discounted payback that equals the project's life. The project's sales quantity must be at which one of these break-even points?A) AccountingB) LeveragedC) MarginalD) CashE) Financial46) Operating leverage is the degree of dependence a firm places on its:A) variable costs.B) fixed costs.C) sales.D) operating cash flows.E) depreciation tax shield.47) Which one of the following is the relationship between the percentage change in operating cash flow and the percentage change in quantity sold?A) Degree of sensitivityB) Degree of operating leverageC) Accounting break-evenD) Cash break-evenE) Contribution margin48) You are considering a project and are concerned about the reliability of the cash flow forecasts. To reduce any potentially harmful results from accepting this project, you should consider:A) lowering the degree of operating leverage.B) lowering the contribution margin per unit.C) increasing the initial cash outlay.D) increasing the fixed costs per unit.E) lowering the operating cash flow.49) Which one of the following characteristics best describes a project that has a low degree of operating leverage?A) High variable costs relative to the fixed costsB) Relatively high initial cash outlayC) OCF that is highly sensitive to the sales quantityD) High level of forecasting riskE) High depreciation expense50) Which one of the following will best reduce the risk of a project by lowering the degree of operating leverage?A) Hiring additional employees rather than using temporary outside contractorsB) Subcontracting portions of the project rather than purchasing new equipment to do all the work in-houseC) Buying equipment rather than leasing it short-termD) Lowering the projected selling price per unitE) Changing the proposed labor-intensive production method to a more capital intensive method51) The degree of operating leverage is equal to:A) 1 + OCF/(FC + VC).B) 1 + OCF/FC.C) 1 + FC/OCF.D) 1 + VC/OCF.E) 1 − (FC + VC)/OCF.52) Uptown Promotions has three divisions. As part of the planning process, the CFO requested that each division submit its capital budgeting proposals for next year. These proposals represent positive net present value projects that fall within the long-range plans of the firm. The requests from the divisions are $4.2 million, $3.1 million, and $6.8 million. For the firm as a whole, management has limited spending to $10 million for new projects next year even though the firm could afford additional investments. This is an example of:A) scenario analysis.B) sensitivity analysis.C) an operating leverage application.D) soft rationing.E) hard rationing.53) Bell Weather Goods has several proposed independent projects that have positive NPVs. However, the firm cannot initiate any of the projects due to a lack of financing. This situation is referred to as:A) financial rejection.B) project rejection.C) soft rationing.D) marginal rationing.E) capital rationing.54) The procedure of allocating a fixed amount of funds for capital spending to each business unit is called:A) marginal spending.B) capital preservation.C) soft rationing.D) hard rationing.E) marginal rationing.55) PC Enterprises wants to commence a new project but is unable to obtain the financing under any circumstances. This firm is facing:A) financial deferral.B) financial allocation.C) capital allocation.D) marginal rationing.E) hard rationing.56) Brubaker & Goss has received requests for capital investment funds for next year from each of its five divisions. All requests represent positive net present value projects. All projects are independent. Senior management has decided to allocate the available funds based on the profitability index of each project since the company has insufficient funds to fulfill all of the requests. Management is following a practice known as:A) scenario analysis.B) sensitivity analysis.C) leveraging.D) hard rationing.E) soft rationing.57) The CFO of Edward's Food Distributors is continually receiving capital funding requests from its division managers. These requests are seeking funding for positive net present value projects. The CFO continues to deny all funding requests due to the financial situation of the company. Apparently, the company is:A) operating at the accounting break-even point.B) operating at the financial break-even point.C) facing hard rationing.D) operating with zero leverage.E) operating at maximum capacity.58) New Town Instruments is analyzing a proposed project. The company expects to sell 1,600 units, ±3 percent. The expected variable cost per unit is $220 and the expected fixed costs are $438,000. Cost estimates are considered accurate within a ±2 percent range. The depreciation expense is $64,000. The sales price is estimated at $647 per unit, ±2 percent. What is the sales revenue under the worst-case scenario?A) $1,086,825B) $896,201C) $984,061D) $1,014,496E) $932,01759) Precise Machinery is analyzing a proposed project that is expected to have sales of 2,450 units, ±8 percent. The expected variable cost per unit is $246 and the expected fixed costs are $309,000. Cost estimates are considered accurate within a ±3 percent range. The depreciation expense is $106,000. The sales price is estimated at $599 per unit, ±2 percent. What is the amount of the total costs per unit under the worst-case scenario?A) $448.58B) $404.16C) $366.67D) $338.23E) $394.5860) Precise Machinery is analyzing a proposed project. The company expects to sell 7,500 units, ±10 percent. The expected variable cost per unit is $314 and the expected fixed costs are $647,000. Cost estimates are considered accurate within a ±4 percent range. The depreciation expense is $187,000. The sales price is estimated at $849 per unit, give or take 2 percent. The tax rate is 21 percent. The company is conducting a sensitivity analysis on the sales price using a sales price estimate of $850. What is the operating cash flow based on this analysis?A) $2,703,940B) $2,293,089C) $1,986,675D) $2,354,874E) $2,284,83761) The Creamery is analyzing a project with expected sales of 5,700 units, ±5 percent. The expected variable cost per unit is $168 and the expected fixed costs are $424,000. Cost estimates are considered accurate within a ±3 percent range. The depreciation expense is $156,000. The sales price is estimated at $339 per unit, ±5 percent. The tax rate is 21 percent. The company is conducting a sensitivity analysis with fixed costs of $425,000. What is the OCF given this analysis?A) $416,511B) $385,350C) $467,023D) $394,874E) $421,30062) HiLo Mfg. is analyzing a project with anticipated sales of 12,500 units, ±2 percent. The variable cost per unit is $13, ± 2 percent, and the expected fixed costs are $237,000, ±1 percent.The sales price is estimated at $69 a unit, ±3 percent. The depreciation expense is $68,000 and the tax rate is 22 percent. What is the earnings before interest and taxes under the base-case scenario?A) $368,500B) $421,000C) $395,000D) $414,900E) $427,50063) Assume a project has a sales quantity of 7,400 units, ±6 percent and a sales price of $59 a unit, ±1 percent. The expected variable cost per unit is $13, ±3 percent, and the expected fixed costs are $214,000, ±2 percent. The depreciation expense is $63,000 and the tax rate is 23 percent. What is the operating cash flow under the best-case scenario?A) $136,759B) $118,470C) $145,705D) $134,208E) $124,22064) Windows and More is reviewing a project with sales of 6,200 units, ±2 percent, at a sales price of $29, ±1 percent, per unit. The expected variable cost per unit is $11, ±3 percent, and the expected fixed costs are $87,000, ±1 percent. The depreciation expense is $68,000 and the tax rate is 21 percent. What is the net income under the worst-case scenario?A) −$38,578B) −$39,713C) $15,846D) –$28,704E) $4,69665) Stellar Plastics is analyzing a proposed project with annual depreciation of $28,750 and a tax rate of 23 percent. The company expects to sell 16,500 units, ±3 percent. The expected variable cost per unit is $1.87, ±1 percent, and the expected fixed costs are $24,900, ±1 percent. The sales price is estimated at $7.99 a unit, ±2 percent. What is the operating cash flow for a sensitivity analysis using total fixed costs of $26,000?A) $54,208B) $64,347C) $63,591D) $62,408E) $60,54066) Your company is reviewing a project with estimated labor costs of $14.68 per unit, estimated raw material costs of $43.18 a unit, and estimated fixed costs of $18,000 a month. Sales are projected at 15,500 units, ±5 percent, over the one-year life of the project. Cost estimates are accurate within a range of ±3 percent. What are the total variable costs for the best-case scenario?A) $869,925B) $861,560C) $913,421D) $951,960E) $891,96067) A project has base-case earnings before interest and taxes of $36,408, fixed costs of $42,700,a selling price of $24 a unit, and a sales quantity of 22,000 units. All estimates are accurate within ±2 percent. Depreciation is $16,700. What is the base-case variable cost per unit?A) $22.16B) $23.84C) $19.65D) $22.23E) $17.1868) Consider a 5-year project with an initial fixed asset investment of $324,000, straight-line depreciation to zero over the project's life, a zero salvage value, a selling price of $34, variable costs of $17, fixed costs of $189,700, a sales quantity of 94,000 units, and a tax rate of 21 percent. What is the sensitivity of OCF to changes in the sales price?A) $74,260 per $1 of salesB) $61,600 per $1 of salesC) $78,700 per $1 of salesD) $59,470 per $1 of salesE) $68,850 per $1 of sales69) You are considering a new product launch. The project will have an initial cost for fixed assets of $1,150,000, a three-year life, and no salvage value; depreciation is straight-line to zero. Sales are projected at 230 units per year, price per unit will be $7,500, variable cost per unit will be $3,900, and fixed costs will be $122,000 per year. The required return is 14.5 percent and the relevant tax rate is 24 percent. Based on your experience, you think the unit sales and price are accurate within a ±2 percent range while costs may vary by ±3 percent. What is the worst-case NPV?A) −$117,907B) $156,446C) −$78,517D) $162,134E) −$118,02070) Shoe Supply has decided to produce a new line of shoes that will have a selling price of $68 and a variable cost of $27 per pair. The company spent $187,000 for a marketing study that determined the company should sell 85,000 pairs of the new shoes each year for three years. The marketing study also determined that the company will lose sales of 24,000 pairs of its high-priced shoes that sell for $129 and have variable costs of $63 a pair. The company will also increase sales of its inexpensive shoes by 19,000 pairs. The inexpensive shoes sell for $39 and have variable costs of $15 per pair. The fixed costs each year will be $1.42 million. The company has also spent $1.29 million on research and development for the new shoes. The initial fixed asset requirement is $4.2 million and will be depreciated on a straight-line basis over the life of the project. The new shoes will also require an increase in net working capital of $447,000 that will be returned at the end of the project. Sales and cost projections have a ±2 percent range. The tax rate is 21 percent, and the cost of capital is 12 percent. What is the NPV for the new line of shoes assuming the base-case scenario?A) −$1,844,788B) −$806,318C) $102,311D) $687,415E) $520,90971) A suggested project requires initial fixed assets of $227,000, has a life of 4 years, and has no salvage value. Assume depreciation is straight-line to zero over the life of the project. Sales are projected at 31,000 units per year, the price per unit is $47, variable cost per unit is $23, and fixed costs are $842,900 per year. The tax rate is 23 percent and the required return is 11.5 percent. Suppose the projections given for price and quantity can vary by ±4 percent while variable and fixed cost estimates are accurate to within ±2 percent. What is the best-case NPV?A) $4,613B) −$67,008C) $127,511D) $82,409E) −$132,19472) A project has expected sales of 54,000 units, ±5 percent, variable cost per unit of $87, ±2 percent, fixed costs of $287,000, ±1 percent, and a sales price per unit of $219, ±2 percent. The depreciation expense is $47,000 and the tax rate is 23 percent. What is the contribution margin per unit for a sensitivity analysis using a variable cost per unit of $85?A) $132B) $134C) $135D) $136E) $133。
(完整版)供应链管理第三版Unit8习题与答案
Chapter 8Aggregate Planning in the Supply ChainTrue/False1. The goal of aggregate planning is to satisfy demand in a way that minimizesprofit.Answer: FalseDifficulty: Easy2. Aggregate planning is a process by which a company determines levels ofcapacity, production, subcontracting, inventory, stockouts, and even pricing overa specified time horizon.Answer: TrueDifficulty: Moderate3. Aggregate planning solves problems involving aggregate decisions rather thanstock keeping unit (SKU) level decisions.Answer: TrueDifficulty: Easy4. Traditionally, much of aggregate planning is focused within an enterprise andmay not always be seen as a part of supply chain management.Answer: TrueDifficulty: Moderate5. Aggregate planning is an important supply chain issue because, to be effective, itrequires inputs from throughout the supply chain, but its results have little impact on the supply chain.Answer: FalseDifficulty: Moderate6. Short-term production serves as a broad blueprint for operations and establishesthe parameters within which aggregate planning decisions are made.Answer: FalseDifficulty: Easy7. The aggregate planning problem is concerned with determining the productionlevel, inventory level, and capacity level (internal and outsourced) for each period that maximizes the firm’s profit over the planning horizon.Answer: TrueDifficulty: Moderate8. To create an aggregate plan, a company must specify the planning horizon forthe plan and the duration of each period within the planning horizon.Answer: TrueDifficulty: Easy9. A planning horizon is usually between three and five years.Answer: FalseDifficulty: Moderate10. A poor aggregate plan can result in improved sales and profits if the availableinventory and capacity are unable to meet demand.Answer: FalseDifficulty: Easy11. A poor aggregate plan may result in a large amount of excess inventory andcapacity, thereby raising costs.Answer: TrueDifficulty: Moderate12. The aggregate planner must make a trade-off between capacity, inventory, andbacklog costs.Answer: TrueDifficulty: Moderate13. An aggregate plan that increases one cost typically results in the increase of theother two.Answer: FalseDifficulty: Moderate14. The time flexible strategy is where the production rate is synchronized with thedemand rate by varying machine capacity or hiring and laying off employees asthe demand rate varies.Answer: FalseDifficulty: Hard15. The time flexible strategy is where workforce (capacity) is kept stable but thenumber of hours worked is varied over time in an effort to synchronize production with demand.Answer: TrueDifficulty: Moderate16. The mixed strategy is where a stable machine capacity and workforce aremaintained with a constant output rate with inventory levels fluctuating over time.Answer: FalseDifficulty: Hard17. Most strategies that an aggregate planner actually uses are in combination, andare referred to as mixed strategies.Answer: TrueDifficulty: Easy18. A highly effective tool for a company to use when it tries to maximize profits whilebeing subjected to a series of constraints is aggregate programming.Answer: FalseDifficulty: Moderate19. To improve the quality of these aggregate plans, forecast errors must be takeninto account when formulating aggregate plans.Answer: TrueDifficulty: Moderate20. Forecasting errors are dealt with in aggregate plans using either safety backlogor safety capacity.Answer: FalseDifficulty: Moderate21. Safety inventory is defined as inventory held to satisfy demand that is higher thanforecasted.Answer: TrueDifficulty: Easy22. Safety capacity is defined as capacity used to satisfy demand that is lower thanforecasted.Answer: FalseDifficulty: Easy23. Companies should work with downstream partners to produce forecasts and withupstream partners to determine constraints when doing aggregate planning.Answer: TrueDifficulty: Easy24. The aggregate plan should be viewed primarily as an in-house tool that does notneed to be communicated to supply chain partners.Answer: FalseDifficulty: Easy25. Given that forecasts are always wrong to some degree, the aggregate planneeds to have some flexibility built into it if it is to be useful.Answer: TrueDifficulty: Moderate26. A manager should perform sensitivity analysis on the inputs into an aggregateplan to choose the best solution for the range of possibilities that could occur.Answer: TrueDifficulty: Moderate27. As inputs into the aggregate plan change, managers do not need to makechanges to the aggregate plan.Answer: FalseDifficulty: Easy28. As capacity utilization increases, it becomes less important to perform aggregateplanning.Answer: FalseDifficulty: ModerateMultiple Choice1. The process by which a company determines levels of capacity, production,subcontracting, inventory, stockouts, and even pricing over a specified timehorizon isa. aggregate planning.b. detail planning.c. inventory planning.d. sales planning.e. all of the aboveAnswer: aDifficulty: Moderate2. The goal of aggregate planning is toa. dissatisfy customers in a way that maximizes profit.b. dissatisfy customers in a way that minimizes profit.c. satisfy demand in a way that maximizes profit.d. satisfy demand in a way that minimizes profit.e. none of the aboveAnswer: cDifficulty: Easy3. Aggregate planning solves problems involvinga. aggregate decisions and stock keeping unit (SKU) level decisions.b. aggregate decisions or stock keeping unit (SKU) level decisions.c. aggregate decisions rather than stock keeping unit (SKU) level decisions.d. stock keeping unit (SKU) level decisions rather than aggregate decisions.e. b and c onlyAnswer: cDifficulty: Easy4. Aggregate planning, to be effective, requires inputs froma. all customers.b. all departments.c. all suppliers.d. throughout the supply chain.e. throughout the company.Answer: dDifficulty: Moderate5. Much of aggregate planning has traditionally been focuseda. on short-term production scheduling.b. on customer relationship management.c. within an enterprise.d. beyond enterprise boundaries.e. all of the aboveAnswer: cDifficulty: Moderate6. Which of the following are not operational parameters the aggregate planner isconcerned with?a. production rateb. workforcec. overtimed. backorderse. inventory on handAnswer: dDifficulty: Moderate7. The operational parameter concerned with the number of units completed perunit time (such as per week or per month) isa. production rate.b. workforce.c. overtime.d. backlog.e. inventory on hand.Answer: aDifficulty: Easy8. The operational parameter concerned with the number of workers/units ofcapacity needed for production isa. production rate.b. workforce.c. overtime.d. backlog.e. inventory on hand.Answer: bDifficulty: Easy9. The operational parameter concerned with the amount of overtime productionplanned isa. production rate.b. workforce.c. overtime.d. backlog.e. inventory on hand.Answer: cDifficulty: Easy10. The operational parameter concerned with demand not satisfied in the period inwhich it arises, but carried over to future periods isa. production rate.b. workforce.c. overtime.d. backlog.e. inventory on hand.Answer: dDifficulty: Easy11. The operational parameter concerned with the planned inventory carried over thevarious periods in the planning horizon isa. production rate.b. workforce.c. overtime.d. backlog.e. inventory on hand.Answer: eDifficulty: Easy12. The operational parameter concerned with the number of units of machinecapacity needed for production isa. machine capacity level.b. subcontracting.c. overtime.d. backlog.e. inventory on hand.Answer: aDifficulty: Easy13. The operational parameter concerned with the subcontracted capacity requiredover the planning horizon isa. machine capacity level.b. subcontracting.c. overtime.d. backlog.e. inventory on hand.Answer: cDifficulty: Easy14. The aggregate plana. serves as a broad blueprint for operations.b. establishes the parameters within which short-term production anddistribution decisions are made.c. allows the supply chain to alter capacity allocations and change supplycontracts.d. all of the abovee. b and c onlyAnswer: dDifficulty: Moderate15. Aggregate planning is concerned with determininga. the production level, sales level, and capacity for each period.b. the demand level, inventory level, and capacity for each period.c. the production level, inventory level, and capacity for each period.d. the production level, staffing level, and capacity for each period.e. none of the aboveAnswer: cDifficulty: Moderate16. To create an aggregate plan, a company must specifya. the planning horizon for the plan.b. the duration of each period within the planning horizon.c. key information required.d. all of the abovee. a and b onlyAnswer: dDifficulty: Moderate17. The planning horizon isa. the time period over which the aggregate plan is to produce a solution.b. the duration of each time period in the aggregate plan.c. the length of time required to produce the aggregate plan.d. the solution to the aggregate plan.e. none of the aboveAnswer: aDifficulty: Easy18. The length of the planning horizon is usually betweena. one and three months.b. three and eighteen months.c. one and three years.d. three and five years.e. none of the aboveAnswer: bDifficulty: Moderate19. Which of the following is not information needed by the aggregate planner?a. demand forecast for each period in the planning horizonb. production costsc. labor costsd. cost of subcontracting productione. cost of changing the demand forecastAnswer: eDifficulty: Moderate20. The cost of changing capacity includes thea. cost of adding machine capacity.b. cost of reducing machine capacity.c. cost of hiring workforce.d. cost of laying off workforce.e. all of the aboveAnswer: eDifficulty: Easy21. Which of the following is not a cost of changing capacity?a. cost of adding machine capacityb. cost of hiring workforcec. cost of laying off workforced. cost of overtimee. cost of reducing machine capacityAnswer: dDifficulty: Moderate22. Which of the following is not a constraint the aggregate planner needs toconsider?a. limits on stockouts and backlogsb. limits on overtimec. limits on sales commissionsd. limits on layoffse. limits on capital availableAnswer: cDifficulty: Moderate23. A poor aggregate plan can result ina. appropriate inventory levels.b. efficient use of capacity.c. better sales and lost profits.d. lost sales and lost profits.e. lost sales and better profits.Answer: dDifficulty: Hard24. The fundamental trade-offs available to an aggregate planner are betweena. capability, inventory, and backlog costs.b. capability, inventory, and sales costs.c. capacity, inventory, and backlog costs.d. capacity, inventory, and sales costs.e. none of the aboveAnswer: cDifficulty: Easy25. Which of the following is not a distinct aggregate planning strategy for achievingbalance between capacity, inventory, and backlog costs?a. adjustable strategyb. Chase strategyc. level strategyd. mixed strategye. time flexible strategyAnswer: aDifficulty: Easy26. The strategy where the production rate is synchronized with the demand rate byvarying machine capacity or hiring and laying off employees as the demand rate varies is thea. adjustable strategy.b. Chase strategy.c. level strategy.d. mixed strategy.e. time flexible strategy.Answer: bDifficulty: Moderate27. The strategy where workforce (capacity) is kept stable but the number of hoursworked is varied over time in an effort to synchronize production with demand is thea. adjustable strategy.b. Chase strategy.c. level strategy.d. mixed strategy.e. time flexible strategy.Answer: eDifficulty: Moderate28. The strategy where a stable machine capacity and workforce are maintained witha constant output rate, with inventory levels fluctuating over time, is thea. adjustable strategy.b. Chase strategy.c. level strategy.d. mixed strategy.e. time flexible strategy.Answer: cDifficulty: Hard29. Most strategies that an aggregate planner actually uses are in combination andare referred to as thea. adjustable strategy.b. Chase strategy.c. level strategy.d. mixed strategy.e. time flexible strategy.Answer: dDifficulty: Easy30. A highly effective tool for a company to use when it tries to maximize profits whilebeing subjected to a series of constraints isa. aggregate programming.b. distribution programming.c. production programming.d. linear programming.e. manufacturing programming.Answer: dDifficulty: Moderate31. When formulating aggregate plans,a. forecast errors have no impact.b. forecast errors must be taken into account.c. forecast accuracy is assumed.d. forecast accuracy is not a factor.e. none of the aboveAnswer: bDifficulty: Moderate32. Forecasting errors are dealt with usinga. safety backlog.b. safety capacity.c. safety inventory.d. all of the abovee. b and c onlyAnswer: eDifficulty: Moderate33. Inventory held to satisfy demand that is higher than forecasted isa. safety backlog.b. safety capacity.c. safety inventory.d. safety sales.e. safety workforce.Answer: cDifficulty: Easy34. Capacity used to satisfy demand that is higher than forecasted isa. safety backlog.b. safety capacity.c. safety inventory.d. safety sales.e. safety workforce.Answer: bDifficulty: Easy35. Which of the following is an approach a company can use to create a buffer forforecast error using safety inventory?a. overtimeb. carry extra workforce permanentlyc. build and carry extra inventoriesd. subcontractinge. purchase capacity or product from an open or spot marketAnswer: aDifficulty: Easy36. Which of the following is not an approach a company can use to create a bufferfor forecast error using safety capacity?a. overtimeb. carry extra workforce permanentlyc. build and carry extra inventoriesd. subcontractinge. purchase capacity or product from an open or spot marketAnswer: cDifficulty: Easy37. Aggregate planning should consider information froma. only the enterprise as its breadth of scope.b. downstream partners to produce forecasts.c. upstream partners to determine constraints.d. all of the abovee. b and c onlyAnswer: dDifficulty: Easy38. The quality of the aggregate plan can be improved by using information froma. only the local firm.b. only downstream partners.c. only upstream partners.d. all parts of the supply chain.e. none of the aboveAnswer: bDifficulty: Moderate39. The aggregate plan should be communicated toa. only the local firm.b. only downstream partners.c. only upstream partners.d. all supply chain partners who will be affected by it.e. none of the aboveAnswer: cDifficulty: Moderate40. The aggregate plan needs toa. be a final product because changes are disruptive to the supply chain.b. be considered fixed because forecasts are usually accurate.c. have some flexibility built into it because forecasts are always wrong.d. have some flexibility built into it because forecasts are usually right.e. none of the aboveAnswer: cDifficulty: Moderate41. How frequently should the aggregate plan be rerun?a. weeklyb. monthlyc. every 3 to 8 monthsd. as inputs to the aggregate plan changee. neverAnswer: dDifficulty: Hard42. As capacity utilization increases,a. it becomes less important to perform aggregate planning.b. it becomes more important to perform aggregate planning.c. it does not affect the importance of performing aggregate planning.d. it lessens the importance of aggregate planning.e. none of the aboveAnswer: bDifficulty: ModerateEssay/Problems1. Discuss the primary objective and operational parameters of aggregate planning.Answer: The goal of aggregate planning is to satisfy demand in a way thatmaximizes profit. Aggregate planning is a process by which a companydetermines levels of capacity, production, subcontracting, inventory, stockouts,and even pricing over a specified time horizon. The aggregate planner’s mainobjective is to identify the following operational parameters over the specifiedtime horizon:• Production rate: the number of units completed per unit time (such as per week or per month).• Workforce: the number of workers/units of capacity needed for production.• Overtime: the amount of overtime production planned.• Machine capacity level: the number of units of machine capacity needed forproduction.• Subcontracting: the subcontracted capacity required over the planning horizon.• Backlog: demand not satisfied in the period in which it arises but carried over to future periods.• Inventory on hand: the planned inventory carried over the various periods in the planning horizon.The aggregate plan serves as a broad blueprint for operations and establishesthe parameters within which short-term production and distribution decisions are made. The aggregate plan allows the supply chain to alter capacity allocationsand change supply contracts.Difficulty: Moderate2. Discuss the information required for aggregate planning.Answer: An aggregate planner requires the following information:• Demand forecast F t for each Period t in the planning horizon that extends over T periods• Production cos ts• Labor costs, regular time ($/hour), and overtime costs ($/hour)• Cost of subcontracting production ($/unit or $/hour)• Cost of changing capacity; specifically, cost of hiring/laying off workforce($/worker) and cost of adding or reducing machine capacity ($/machine)• Labor/machine hours required per unit• Inventory holding cost ($/unit/period)• Stockout or backlog cost ($/unit/period)• Constraints:• Limits on overtime• Limits on layoffs• Limits on capital available• Limits on stockouts and ba cklogs• Constraints from suppliers to the enterpriseThis information is used to create an aggregate plan that in turn helps a company make the following determinations:• Production quantity from regular time, overtime, and subcontracted time:used to determine number of workers and supplier purchase levels.• Inventory held: used to determine how much warehouse space andworking capital is needed.• Backlog/stockout quantity: used to determine what the customer servicelevels will be.• Workforce hired/laid off: used to determine any labor issues that will beencountered.• Machine capacity increase/decrease: used to determine if newproduction equipment needs to be purchased or idled.The quality of an aggregate plan has a significant impact on the profitability of a firm. A poor aggregate plan can result in lost sales and lost profits if the available inventory and capacity are unable to meet demand. A poor aggregate plan mayalso result in a large amount of excess inventory and capacity, thereby raisingcosts. Therefore, aggregate planning is a very important tool in helping a supply chain maximize profitability.Difficulty: Hard3. Explain the basic strategies that an aggregate planner has available to balancethe various costs and meet demand.Answer: There are essentially three distinct aggregate planning strategies forachieving balance between these costs. These strategies involve trade-offsbetween capital investment, workforce size, work hours, inventory, andbacklogs/lost sales. Most strategies that a planner actually uses are acombination of these three and are referred to as mixed strategies. The threestrategies are as follows:1. Chase strategy—using capacity as the lever: With this strategy, the productionrate is synchronized with the demand rate by varying machine capacity or hiring and laying off employees as the demand rate varies. In practice, achieving thissynchronization can be very problematic because of the difficulty in varyingcapacity and workforce on short notice. This strategy can be expensive toimplement if the cost of varying machine or labor capacity over time is high. Itcan also have a significant negative impact on the morale of the workforce. TheChase strategy results in low levels of inventory in the supply chain and highlevels of change in capacity and workforce. It should be used when the cost ofcarrying inventory is very expensive and costs to change levels of machine andlabor capacity are low.2. Time flexibility strategy—using utilization as the lever: This strategy may beused if there is excess machine capacity (i.e., if machines are not used twentyfour hours a day, seven days a week). In this case, the workforce (capacity) iskept stable but the number of hours worked is varied over time in an effort tosynchronize production with demand. A planner can use variable amounts ofovertime or a flexible schedule to achieve this synchronization. Although thisstrategy does require that the workforce be flexible, it avoids some of theproblems associated with the Chase strategy, most notably changing the size of the workforce. This strategy results in low levels of inventory but with loweraverage utilization. It should be used when inventory carrying costs are relatively high and machine capacity is relatively inexpensive.3. Level strategy—using inventory as the lever: With this strategy, a stablemachine capacity and workforce are maintained with a constant output rate.Shortages and surpluses result in inventory levels fluctuating over time. Hereproduction is not synchronized with demand. Either inventories are built up inanticipation of future demand or backlogs are carried over from high- to low-demand periods. Employees benefit from stable working conditions. A drawback associated with this strategy is that large inventories may accumulate andcustomer orders may be delayed. This strategy keeps capacity and costs ofchanging capacity relatively low. It should be used when inventory carrying andbacklog costs are relatively low.Difficulty: Moderate4. Discuss key issues to be considered when implementing aggregate planning.Answer: 1. Think beyond the enterprise to the entire supply chain. Mostaggregate planning done today takes only the enterprise as its breadth of scope.However, there are many factors outside the enterprise throughout the supplychain that can dramatically impact the optimal aggregate plan. Therefore, avoidthe trap of only thinking about your enterprise when aggregate planning. Workwith partners downstream to produce forecasts, with upstream partners todetermine constraints, and with any other supply chain entities that can improve the quality of the inputs into the aggregate plan. As the plan is only as good asthe quality of the inputs, using the supply chain to increase the quality of theinputs will greatly improve the quality of the aggregate plan. Also make sure tocommunicate the aggregate plan to all supply chain partners who will be affected by it.2. Make plans flexible because forecasts are always wrong. Aggregate plans arebased on forecasts of future demand. Given that these forecasts are alwayswrong to some degree, the aggregate plan needs to have some flexibility builtinto it if it is to be useful. By building flexibility into the plan, when future demand changes, or other changes occur, such as increases in costs, the plan canappropriately adjust to handle the new situation. A manager should performsensitivity analysis on the inputs into an aggregate plan. Using sensitivityanalysis on the inputs into the aggregate plan will enable the planner to choosethe best solution for the range of possibilities that could occur.3. Rerun the aggregate plan as new data emerges. Aggregate plans provide amap for the next three to eighteen months. This does not mean that a firm should only run aggregate plans once every three to eighteen months. As inputs into the aggregate plan change, managers should use the latest values of these inputsand rerun the aggregate plan. By using the latest inputs, the plan will avoidsuboptimization based on old data and will produce a better solution. Forinstance, as new demand forecasts become available, aggregate plans shouldbe reevaluated.4. Use aggregate planning as capacity utilization increases. Surprisingly, manycompanies do not create aggregate plans and instead rely solely on orders from their distributors or warehouses to determine their production schedules. Theseorders are driven either by actual demand or through inventory managementalgorithms. If a company has no trouble efficiently meeting demand this way,then one could claim the lack of aggregate planning may not significantly harmthe company. However, when utilization becomes high and capacity is an issue, relying on orders to set the production schedule can lead to capacity problems.When utilization is high, the likelihood of producing for all the orders as theyarrive is very low. Planning needs to be done to best utilize the capacity to meet the forecasted demand. Therefore, as capacity utilization increases, it becomesmore important to perform aggregate planning.Difficulty: Moderate。
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运筹学作业d⽂档注：没有选项的题是判断题，每⼀章的前⼏道都是判断题Chapter 11. Managers do not need to know the mathematical theory behind the techniques of management science in order to lead management science teams.2. Management scientists are responsible for making the managerial decisions for an organization.3. Once management makes its decisions, the management science team typically continues to work to implement the new plan.4. At the break-even point, the fixed cost equals the variable cost.5. Sensitivity analysis is used to check the effect on the recommendations of a model if the estimates turn out to be wrong.6. Enlightened future managers do not need to know which of the following?A. How the models of management science are solved.B. When management science can and cannot be applied.C. How to apply the major techniques of management science.D. How to interpret the results of a management science study.E. None of the above.7. Which of the following is not a component of a mathematical model for decision making?A. Decision variables.B. A spreadsheet.C. Constraints.D. Parameters.E. All of the above.8. Which of the following is not a step taken in a typical management science study?A. Define the problem and gather data.B. Formulate a model.C. Apply the model and develop recommendations.D. Help to implement the recommendation.E. All of the above are typical steps in a management science study.9. Which of the following is true at the break-even point?A. The fixed cost equals the variable cost.B. The production quantity equals the sales forecast.C. The company will neither make nor lose money on the product.D. The profit equals the cost.E. None of the above.10. A constraint in a mathematical model isA. a variable representing the decision to be made.B. an inequality or equation that restricts the values of the variables.C. a measure of the performance of the model.D. the sales forecast.E. none of the above.Chapter 21. Linear programming problems may have only one goal or objective specified.2. A feasible solution is one that satisfies at least one of the constraints of a linear programming problem.3. The cell containing the measure of performance is referred to as a changing cell.4. A linear programming problem can have only one optimal solution.5. When solving a maximization problem graphically, it is generally the goal to move the objective function line in, toward the origin, as far as possible.6. In a linear programming spreadsheet model, the output cells can typically be expressed as a SUMPRODUCT function.7. Changing only the right-hand side of a constraint creates parallel constraint boundary lines.8. The Assume Nonnegative option assures that the target cell will remain nonnegative.9. Which of the following is a component of a linear programming model?A. Constraints.B. Decision variables.C. Parameters.D. An objective.E. All of the above.10. Which of the following are not types of cells in a linear programming spreadsheet model?A. Changing cellsB. Target cellC. Output cellsD. Input cellsE. Data cells11. For the products x and y, which of the following could be a linear programming objective function?A. C = x + 2y.B. C = x+ 2xy.C. C = x - 2(y-squared).D. C = x + 2x/y.E. All of the above.12. Which of the following is not a step in the graphical method:A. Draw the constraint boundary line for each functional constraint.B. Find the feasible region.C. Determine the slope of one objective function line.D. Find the optimal solution using a straight-edge.E. All of the above are steps in the graphical method.13. Given the following 2 constraints, which solution is a feasible solution for a maximization problem?A. (X1 , X2 ) = (1, 5).B. (X1 , X2 ) = (4, 1).C. (X1 , X2 ) = (4, 0).D. (X1 , X2 ) = (2, 1).E. (X1 , X2 ) = (2, 4).14. What is the cost of the optimal solution for the following problem?A. 0.B. 3.C. 15.D. 18.E. 21.15. A local bagel shop produces bagels (B) and croissants (C). Each bagel requires 6 ounces of flour, 1 gram of yeast, and 2 tablespoons of sugar. A croissant requires 3 ounces of flour, 1 gram of yeast, and 4 tablespoons of sugar. The company has 6,600 ounces of flour, 1,400 grams of yeast, and 4,800 tablespoons of sugar available for today's baking. Bagel profits are 20 cents each and croissant profits are 30 cents each. What is the objective function?A. 2B + 4C <= 4,800.B. (B, C) = (0, 1400).C. P = 0.2B + 0.3C.D. $340.E. None of the above.Chapter 31. There is only one correct way to set up a spreadsheet model.2. In the Everglade Golden Years Company problem, the long-term loan had a lower interest rate than the short-term loan.3. When sketching out a spreadsheet, all of the equations should be entered in the sketch.4. Data should be repeated on the spreadsheet wherever it is needed.5. Numbers should be entered directly into formulas.6. Range names can make equations and the Solver dialogue box easier to read and interpret.7. Shading of cells in the spreadsheet should be avoided.8. The toggle alternates between showing equations and showing values in the cells of the spreadsheet.9. Powerful Excel functions should be used to keep the spreadsheet as concise as possible.10. Using absolute and relative references appropriately makes it easy to expand a model to full-size.11. Which of the following is not a major step in the process of modeling with spreadsheets?A. PlanB. BuildC. TestD. AnalyzeE. All are major steps in the process of modeling with spreadsheets.12. Which of the following are useful steps in the planning stage?A. Visualize where you want to finishB. Do some calculations by handC. Sketch out a spreadsheetD. Sensitivity analysisE. All are useful steps in the planning stage.13. Each constraint should be entered into how many cells on the spreadsheet?A. 1B. 2C. 3D. 4E. 514. Which of the following is not useful for debugging a spreadsheet?A. The auditing toolbar.B. The toggle.C. Trying different values in the changing cells for which you know the solution.D. A and C only.E. All are useful for debugging a spreadsheet.15. Which element of the spreadsheet model should be entered first?A. The data.B. The output cells.C. The target cell.D. The changing cells.E. None of the above.Chapter 41. When formulating a linear programming model on a spreadsheet, the constraints are located in the data cells.2. A mathematical model will be an approximation of the real problem.3. Linear programming must have integer solutions.4. Strict inequalities (i.e., < or >) are permitted in linear programming formulations.5. Once a linear programming problem has been formulated, it is common to make major adjustments to it.6. Resource-allocation problems have constraints for each limited resource.7. A resource constraint has a >= sign in a linear programming model.8. Distribution-network problems typically have mostly <= constraints.9. Which of the following is not a category of linear programming problems?A. Resource-allocation problems.B. Cost-benefit-tradeoff problems.C. Distribution-network problems.D. B and C.E. All of the above are categories of linear programming problems.10. A linear programming model does not contain which of the following components?A. Data.B. Decisions.C. Constraints.D. Measure of performance.E. A spreadsheet.11. Which of the following may not be in a linear programming formulation?A. <=.B. >.C. =.D. A. and C. only.E. All of the above.12. Distribution-network problems have the following type of constraints:A. >=.B. <=.C. >.D. <.E. None of the above.13. Resource-allocation problems typically have which of the following type of constraints:A. >=.B. <=.C. =.D. None of the above.E. All of the above.14. Cost-benefit tradeoff problems typically have which of the following type of constraints:A. >=.B. <=.C. =.D. None of the above.E. All of the above.15. Mixed problems may not have which of the following type of constraints:A. >=.B. <=.C. =.D. All of the above.E. None of the above.Chapter 61. Transportation problems are concerned with distributing commodities from sources to destinations in such a way as to maximize the total amount shipped.2. Transportation problems always have integer solutions if the supplies and demands are all integer.3. The Hungarian Method is an algorithm used to solve assignment problems.4. When demand and supply are not equal in a transportation problem then the problem can be reformulated and solved.5. It is possible to adjust the transportation simplex method to maximize profit instead of minimize cost.6. Which of the following is needed to use the transportation model?A. Capacity of the sources.B. Demand of the destinations.C. Unit shipping costs.D. All of the above.E. None of the above.7. Which of the following is not an assumption or requirement of a transportation problem?A. I and IVB. II and IIIC. I, II and IVD. I and IIIE. I, II, III, and IV8. Which of the following can be modeled as variants of the standard transportation problem?A. The sum of the supplies exceeds the sum of demands.B. A destination has a minimum and maximum demand.C. Certain source-destination combinations cannot be used for distributing units.D. A. and B. only.E. All can be modeled as a variation of the transportation problem.9. An assignment problem:A. will always have an integer solution.B. has all supplies and demands equal to 0.C. always has the demand greater than the supply.D. All of the above.E. None of the above.10. Which of the following is an assumption of assignment problems?A. The number of assignees and the number of tasks are the sameB. The objective is to minimize the number of assignments not made.C. Each task is to be performed by exactly one assignee.D. A. and C. only.E. None of the aboveChapter 71. Each node in a minimum cost flow problem where the net amount of flow generated is a fixed positive number is a supply node.2. If the SUMIF function is used in a network optimization models, it will be nonlinear.3. In a maximum flow problem, the source and sink do not have fixed supplies and demands.4. A shortest path problem may have multiple destinations.5. The number of links in a spanning tree is always the same as the number of nodes.6. The network simplex is a streamlined version of the simplex method.7. Which of the following is not a special type of linear programming problem?A. I and IV.B. I, II, and III.C. II, III, and IV.D. IV only.E. None of the above.8. Which of the following will have positive net outflow in a minimum cost flow problem?A. Supply nodes.B. Transshipment nodes.C. Demand nodes.D. All of the above.E. None of the above.9. Which of the following is not an application of a shortest path problem?A. I and II onlyB. I, II, and III only.C. II onlyD. I, II, III, and IVE. I, III, and IV only.10. If there are 8 nodes in a minimum spanning tree problem then how many links will there be in the solution?A. 6.B. 7.C. 8.D. We cannot tell how many links there will be until it has been solved.E. The total cost will be 7.Chapter 81. In an Activity-On-Arc project network, the nodes are used to separate an activity from each of its immediate predecessors.2. If two paths are tied for the longest duration, the one with the most activities would be considered to be the critical path.3. The slack of an activity is the difference between the latest finish and the latest start times.4. When calculating the probability that a project will finish by a certain time, the approximation that is obtained is usually higher than the true probability.5. The latest finish time for an activity is:A. based on the length of the critical path.B. determined by the maximum of the earliest finish times of its immediate predecessors.C. determined by the maximum of the earliest finish times of its immediate successors.D. the same as the latest start time of its immediate predecessor.E. None of the above.6. Activity C has an early start time of 7, an early finish time of 12, a latest start time of 13, and a latest finish time of 18. Its slack is:A. 0.B. 1.C. 4.D. 6.E. 9.7. Which of the following is a benefit of PERT/CPM?A. It provides an estimate of how long a project will take.B. It allows an activity to overlap with its immediate predecessors.C. It addresses the important issue of how to allocate limited resources.D. A. and C. only.E. All of the above.8. An activity has an optimistic time estimate of four days, a most likely time estimate of eight days, and a pessimistic time estimate of fifteen days. The expected duration of this activity is:A. 7.0 days.B. 7.5 days.C. 8.0 days.D. 8.5 days.E. 10.0 days.9. Which of the following is not a way of crashing an activity?A. Using overtime.B. Hiring more workers.C. Using specialized equipment.D. A. and C.E. All of the above are ways of crashing an activity.10. PERT/Cost does not:A. find the penalty costs if a project is not completed on time.B. compare the actual budget with the planned budget.C. show management where to focus attention during the project.D. A. and B. only.E. B. and C. only.Chapter 91. In an integer programming problem, all of the decision variables are not necessarily required to be integer values.2. Solving the LP relaxation of an integer programming problem and rounding the solution will always find the optimal solution.3. Binary integer programming problems are those where all the decision variables are restricted to integer values.4. Variables whose only possible values are 0 and 1 are called binary variables.5. A problems where all the variables are binary variables is called a mixed BIP problem.6. If choosing one alternative from a group excludes choosing all of the others then these alternatives are called complimentary.7. The constraint x1 +x2 +x3 <= 1 in a BIP represents mutually exclusive alternatives.8. Solving the LP relaxation of an integer programming problem and rounding the solution will find a solution that may not be:A. feasible.B. optimal.C. integer.D. A. and B.E. All of the above.9. Binary integer programming problems can answer which types of questions?A. How much of a product should be produced?B. Should an investment be made?C. Should a plant be located at a particular location?D. All of the above.E. B. and C. only.10. Binary variables can have the following values:A. 0.B. 1.C. any integer value.D. A. and B. only.E. All of the above.11. In a BIP problem with 3 mutually exclusive alternatives, A, B, and C , the following constraint needs to be added to the formulation if two alternatives must be chosen:A. A + B + C <= 2.B. A + B + C = 2.C. A - B - C <= 2.D. A + B + C <= 1.E. None of the above.12. In a BIP problem, 1 corresponds to a yes decision and 0 to a no decision. If project S can be undertaken only if project T is also undertaken then the following constraint needs to be added to the formulation:A. S + T <= 1.B. S + T = 1.C. S <= T.D. T <= S.E. None of the above.13. In a BIP problem, 1 corresponds to a yes decision and 0 to a no decision. If there are 3 projects under consideration (A, B, and C) and at most 2 can be chosen then the following constraint needs to be added to the formulation:A. A + B + C <= 3.B. A + B + C <= 2.C. A + B + C >= 2.D. A + B + C = 2.E. None of the above.14. Auxiliary binary variables can be used to deal with:A. set-up costs for initiating production.B. mutually exclusive products.C. either-or constraints.D. All of the above.E. None of the above.Chapter 101. If the slope of a curve on a profit graph never increases but sometimes decreases as the level of the activity increases, then it is said to have increasing marginal returns.2. The Solver Table can be used to try a variety of starting points in a nonlinear programming problem.3. Separable programming requires that the objective function be piecewise linear.4. The Evolutionary Solver uses an algorithm that is sometimes called a genetic algorithm.5. Evolutionary Solver is a good choice for problems with many constraints.6. The Evolutionary Solver requires that the constraints all be linear.7. Problems with increasing marginal returns are generally easier for Solver to solve than problems with decreasing marginal returns.8. A nonlinear programming problem will have how many local maxima?A. 0B. 1C. 2D. 3E. It can have any number of local maxima.9. A linear function may not contain which of the following?A. A term that contains a single variable with an exponent of 1.B. A term that contains a single variable with an exponent of 2.C. A term that is a constant times the product of two variables.D. B. and C. only.E. All of the above.10. Which of the following Excel functions are linear (assuming changing cells are in C1:C6 and data cells are in D1:D6):A. I only.B. I and II.C. I and III.D. II and IV.E. III and IV.11. Which of the following Excel functions are linear (assuming changing cells are in C1:C6 and data cells are in D1:D6):A. I only.B. I and II.C. II and III.D. I and IV.E. IV only.12. Which of the following is an example of a nonlinear function?A. P= 5 X1+ 7 X2 - 2 (X2-squared).B. P= 8 X1 - 4 X2.C. P= X1 + 6 X2 + 3 X1 X2.D. A. and C. only.E. All of the above.13. The requirement that each term in the objective function only contains a single variable is referred to as:A. the proportionality assumption.B. the divisibility assumption.C. the additivity assumption.D. a nonlinear function.E. None of the above.Chapter 111. The overall objective for a goal programming problem is to determine the most important objective in the problem.2. Goal programming provides two alternative ways of formulating problems with multiple goals: preemptive and weighted goal programming.3. Preemptive goal programming is an appropriate technique when all of the goals are fairly equal in importance.4. In preemptive goal programming it is assumed that there is a distinct order of importance for all goals, and that no goals are of equal importance.5. Preemptive goal programming involves solving a single linear programming model.6. Weighted goal programming involves solving a single linear programming model.7. Goal programming can handle problems with how many different objectives or goals?A. 1.B. 2.C. 3.D. 4.E. Any number of objectives or goals.8. Which of the following are included as changing cells in a goal programming formulation?A. The levels of the various activities.B. The amount over each goal.C. The amount under each goal.D. B. and C. only.E. All of the above are changing cells.9. In weighted goal programming the objective is toA. Maximize profit.B. Minimize cost.C. Achieve the most important goal.D. Minimize a weighted sum of deviations from the various goals.E. Minimize the amount under each goal.10. In preemptive goal programming, the most important thing is toA. Achieve the most important goal.B. Come close to achieving all the goals.C. Ignore the least important goal.D. A. and C.E. All of the above.Chapter 121. Prior probabilities refer to the relative likelihood of past events.2. Bayes' decision rule says to choose the alternative with the largest possible payoff.3. The EVPI indicates how much the payoff will be with perfect information.4. A risk seeker has an increasing marginal utility for money.5. The exponential utility function assumes a variable aversion to risk.6. The maximax criterion is appropriate for the eternal optimist.7. The expected payoff is the payoff that is most likely to occur.8. In a decision tree, the expected payoff of a particular event node is equal to the SUMPRODUCT of the probabilities and expected payoffs of each branch.9. Sensitivity analysis of a decision tree requires the use of Solver Table.10. If C > EVPI then it is not worthwhile to obtain more information.11. Which of the following statements is correct when making decisions?A. The sum of the state of nature probabilities must be 1.B. Every probability must be greater than or equal to 0.C. All probabilities are assumed to be equal.D. A. and B. only.E. All of the above.12. Given the following information what is the maximum likelihood strategy?A. A.B. B.C. C.D. D.E. E.13. Given the following information what is the Bayes' decision rule strategy?A. A.B. B.C. C.D. D.E. E.14. Given the following information what is the expected value of perfect information?A. 4.5.B. 9.C. 40.5.D. 49.5.E. 60.15. Which of the following can be used to do sensitivity analysis with decision trees?A. Trial and error.B. A Data Table.C. SensIt.D. A. and C.E. All of the above.答案：chapter 1Chapter 1 ABABA ABECBChapter 2 ABBBB AABED AEDDCChapter 3 BABBB ABABA EDCEAChapter 4 BABBA ABBEE BEBAEChapter 6 BAAAA DBEADChapter 7 ABABB BDACBChapter 8 ABBAE DADEAChapter 9 ABBAB BADED BCDEChapter 10 BABAB BBEDC EDCChapter 11 BABBB AEEDAChapter 12 BBBAB ABABA DCCBE。
英语判断题
“三大模块”题库（英语判断题）1. The capital ratios expected to be maintained by all banks are 4% for Tier 1 and 8% for Total capital. False2. In all G-10 countries, the minimum ratios for Tier 1 and Total capital are 6% and 10%, respectively. False3. The Basel I minimum Tier 1 and Tier 2 capital ratios are each 4%. False4. The Basel I minimum Tier 1 ratio is 4% and the minimum Total capital ratio is 8%. True8. According to the corporation law, the company structure includes the shareholders, the board of directors and the supervisory board.（模块三电子版P357）答：错10. Huge loss of bank deposits can be considered as the internal signal of early-warning signals of liquidity risk. (Wrong)（错）参考来源：（模块三P269）13. Economic capital is an economic concept that is used to describe a bank's ability to cover the expected loss.Answer : False 《商业银行主要业务》P453 判断第一题17. Low-value consumption goods a corporation has can not be used as debt assets. Wrong18. The necessary condition for a bank to issue financial bond is core capital adequacy ratio more than 4%.Right19. The bank business of bill acceptance and discount should have its real trade background.Right20. The efficiency standard regarding public finance in terms of resource replacement is the maximization the government investment return.Wrong21. Economic capital can be allocated to a specific transaction.Right22. Economic capital is the minimum amount of money an institution can lose over a specified time horizon.Wrong25. True or false: options give buyers the obligation to buy or sell an asset at a present price over a specific period.答案：False出处：《商业银行主要业务》P 40726. Futures contracts usually end in the delivery of the underlying commodity.答案：False出处：《商业银行主要业务》P 39429. When the aggregate demand is beyond the aggregate supply, the economy is in balance. （Answer: False）30. At the present time，supervise method of Chinese banking is Risk-based Supervision. （Answer: False）31. The purpose of foreign exchange futures hedging is to avoid or reduce funds’ risk，to ensure the value of foreign currency assets。
和工作岗位、企业有关的英语名词
HR名词解释1. 人力资源管理:(Human Resource Management ,HRM)人力资源经理:( human resource manager)高级管理人员:(executive)职业:(profession)道德标准:(ethics)操作工:(operative employees)专家:(specialist)人力资源认证协会:(the Human Resource Certification Institute,HRCI)2.外部环境:(external environment)内部环境:(internal environment)政策:(policy)企业文化:(corporate culture)目标:(mission)股东:(shareholders)非正式组织:(informal organization)跨国公司:(multinational corporation,MNC)管理多样性:(managing diversity)3.工作:(job)职位:(posting)工作分析:(job analysis)工作说明:(job description)工作规范:(job specification)工作分析计划表:(job analysis schedule,JAS)职位分析问卷调查法:(Management Position Description Questionnaire,MPDQ) 行政秘书:(executive secretary)地区服务经理助理:(assistant district service manager)4.人力资源计划:(Human Resource Planning,HRP)战略规划:(strategic planning)长期趋势:(long term trend)要求预测:(requirement forecast)供给预测:(availability forecast)管理人力储备:(management inventory)裁减:(downsizing)人力资源信息系统:(Human Resource Information System,HRIS)5.招聘:(recruitment)员工申请表:(employee requisition)招聘方法:(recruitment methods)内部提升:(Promotion From Within ,PFW)工作公告:(job posting)广告:(advertising)职业介绍所:(employment agency)特殊事件:(special events)实习:(internship)6.选择:(selection)选择率:(selection rate)简历:(resume)标准化:(standardization)有效性:(validity)客观性:(objectivity)规范:(norm)录用分数线:(cutoff score)准确度:(aiming)业务知识测试:(job knowledge tests)求职面试:(employment interview)非结构化面试:(unstructured interview)结构化面试:(structured interview)小组面试:(group interview)职业兴趣测试:(vocational interest tests)会议型面试:(board interview)7.组织变化与人力资源开发人力资源开发:(Human Resource Development,HRD) 培训:(training)开发:(development)定位:(orientation)训练:(coaching)辅导:(mentoring)经营管理策略:(business games)案例研究:(case study)会议方法:(conference method)角色扮演:(role playing)工作轮换:(job rotating)在职培训:(on-the-job training ,OJT)媒介:(media)8.企业文化与组织发展企业文化:(corporate culture)组织发展:(organization development,OD)调查反馈:(survey feedback)质量圈:(quality circles)目标管理:(management by objective,MBO)全面质量管理:(Total Quality Management,TQM) 团队建设:(team building)9.职业计划与发展职业:(career)职业计划:(career planning)职业道路:(career path)职业发展:(career development)自我评价:(self-assessment)职业动机:(career anchors)10.绩效评价绩效评价:(Performance Appraisal,PA)小组评价:(group appraisal)业绩评定表:(rating scales method)关键事件法:(critical incident method)排列法:(ranking method)平行比较法:(paired comparison)硬性分布法:(forced distribution method)晕圈错误:(halo error)宽松:(leniency)严格:(strictness)3600反馈:(360-degree feedback)叙述法:(essay method)集中趋势:(central tendency)11.报酬与福利报酬:(compensation)直接经济报酬:(direct financial compensation)间接经济报酬:(indirect financial compensation) 非经济报酬:(no financial compensation)公平:(equity)外部公平:(external equity)内部公平:(internal equity)员工公平:(employee equity)小组公平:(team equity)工资水平领先者:(pay leaders)现行工资率:(going rate)工资水平居后者:(pay followers)劳动力市场:(labor market)工作评价:(job evaluation)排列法:(ranking method)分类法:(classification method)因素比较法:(factor comparison method)评分法:(point method)海氏指示图表个人能力分析法:(Hay Guide Chart-profile Method) 工作定价:(job pricing)工资等级:(pay grade)工资曲线:(wage curve)工资幅度:(pay range)12.福利和其它报酬问题福利(间接经济补偿)员工股权计划:(employee stock ownership plan,ESOP)值班津贴:(shift differential)奖金:(incentive compensation)分红制:(profit sharing)13.安全与健康的工作环境安全:(safety)健康:(health)频率:(frequency rate)紧张:(stress)角色冲突:(role conflict)催眠法:(hypnosis)酗酒:(alcoholism)14.员工和劳动关系工会:(union)地方工会:(local union)行业工会:(craft union)产业工会:(industrial union)全国工会:(national union)谈判组:(bargaining union)劳资谈判:(collective bargaining)仲裁:(arbitration)罢工:(strike)内部员工关系:(internal employee relations) 纪律:(discipline)纪律处分:(disciplinary action)申诉:(grievance)降职:(demotion)调动:(transfer)晋升:(promotion)2. AAction learning：行动学习Alternation ranking method：交替排序法Annual bonus：年终分红Application forms：工作申请表Appraisal interview：评价面试Aptitudes：资质Arbitration：仲裁Attendance incentive plan：参与式激励计划Authority：职权BBehavior modeling：行为模拟Behaviorally anchored rating scale (bars)：行为锚定等级评价法Benchmark job：基准职位Benefits：福利Bias：个人偏见Boycott：联合抵制Bumping/layoff procedures：工作替换/临时解雇程序Burnout：耗竭CCandidate-order error：候选人次序错误Capital accumulation program：资本积累方案Career anchors：职业锚Career cycle：职业周期Career planning and development：职业规划与职业发展Case study method：案例研究方法Central tendency：居中趋势Citations：传讯Civil Rights Act：民权法Classes：类Classification (or grading) method：归类（或分级）法Collective bargaining：集体谈判Comparable worth：可比价值Compensable factor：报酬因素Computerized forecast：计算机化预测Content validity：内容效度Criterion validity：效标效度Critical incident method：关键事件法DDavis-Bacon Act (DBA)：戴维斯―佩根法案Day-to-day-collective bargaining：日常集体谈判Decline stage：下降阶段Deferred profit-sharing plan：延期利润分享计划Defined benefit：固定福利Defined contribution：固定缴款Department of Labor job analysis：劳工部工作分析法Discipline：纪律Dismissal：解雇；开除Downsizing：精简EEarly retirement window：提前退休窗口Economic strike：经济罢工Edgar Schein：艾德加?施恩Employee compensation：职员报酬Employee orientation：雇员上岗引导Employee Retirement Income Security Act (ERISA) ：雇员退休收入保障法案Employee services benefits：雇员服务福利Employee stock ownership plan (ESOP) ：雇员持股计划Equal Pay Act：公平工资法Establishment stage：确立阶段Exit interviews：离职面谈Expectancy chart：期望图表Experimentation：实验Exploration stage：探索阶段FFact-finder：调查Fair day's work：公平日工作Fair Labor Standards Act：公平劳动标准法案Flexible benefits programs：弹性福利计划Flex place：弹性工作地点Flextime：弹性工作时间Forced distribution method：强制分布法Four-day workweek：每周4天工作制Frederick Taylor：弗雷德里克?泰罗Functional control：职能控制Functional job analysis：功能性工作分析法GGeneral economic conditions：一般经济状况Golden offerings：高龄给付Good faith bargaining：真诚的谈判Grade description：等级说明书Grades：等级Graphic rating scale：图尺度评价法Grid training：方格训练Grievance：抱怨Grievance procedure：抱怨程序Group life insurance：团体人寿保险Group pension plan：团体退休金计划Growth stage：成长阶段Guarantee corporation：担保公司Guaranteed fair treatment：有保证的公平对待Guaranteed piecework plan：有保障的计件工资制Gain sharing：收益分享HHalo effect：晕轮效应Health maintenance organization (HMO) ：健康维持组织IIllegal bargaining：非法谈判项目Impasse：僵持Implied authority：隐含职权Incentive plan：激励计划Individual retirement account (IRA) ：个人退休账户In-house development center：企业内部开发中心Insubordination：不服从Insurance benefits：保险福利Interviews：谈话；面谈JJob analysis：工作分析Job description：工作描述Job evaluation：职位评价Job instruction training (JIT) ：工作指导培训Job posting：工作公告Job rotation：工作轮换Job sharing：工作分组Job specifications：工作说明书John Holland：约翰?霍兰德Junior board：初级董事会LLayoff：临时解雇Leader attach training：领导者匹配训练Lifetime employment without guarantees：无保证终身解雇Line manager：直线管理者Local market conditions：地方劳动力市场Lockout：闭厂MMaintenance stage：维持阶段Management assessment center：管理评价中心Management by objectives (MBO) ：目标管理法Management game：管理竞赛Management grid：管理方格训练Management process：管理过程Mandatory bargaining：强制谈判项目Mediation：调解Merit pay：绩效工资Merit raise：绩效加薪Mid career crisis sub stage：中期职业危机阶段NNondirective interview：非定向面试OOccupational market conditions：职业市场状况Occupational orientation：职业性向Occupational Safety and Health Act：职业安全与健康法案Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) ：职业安全与健康管理局Occupational skills：职业技能On-the-job training (OJT) ：在职培训Open-door：敞开门户Opinion survey：意见调查Organization development(OD) ：组织发展Outplacement counseling：向外安置顾问PPaired comparison method：配对比较法Panel interview：小组面试Participant diary/logs：现场工人日记/日志Pay grade：工资等级Pension benefits：退休金福利Pension plans：退休金计划People-first values："以人为本"的价值观Performance analysis：工作绩效分析Performance Appraisal interview:工作绩效评价面谈Personnel (or human resource) management：人事（或人力资源）管理Personnel replacement charts：人事调配图Piecework：计件Plant Closing law：工厂关闭法Point method/Policies：政策Position Analysis Questionnaire (PAQ) ：职位分析问卷Position replacement cards：职位调配卡Pregnancy discrimination act：怀孕歧视法案Profit-sharing plan利润分享计划Programmed learning：程序化教学QQualifications inventories：资格数据库Quality circle：质量圈RRanking method：排序法Rate ranges：工资率系列Ratio analysis：比率分析Reality shock：现实冲击 Reliability：信度Retirement：退休Retirement benefits：退休福利Retirement counseling：退休前咨询Rings of defense：保护圈Role playing：角色扮演SSkip-level interview：越级谈话Social security：社会保障Speak up! ：讲出来！Special awards：特殊奖励Special management development techniques：特殊的管理开发技术Stabilization sub stage：稳定阶段Staff (service) function：职能（服务）功能Standard hour plan：标准工时工资Stock option：股票期权Straight piecework：直接计件制Strategic plan：战略规划Stress interview：压力面试Strictness/leniency：偏紧/偏松Strikes：罢工Structured interview：结构化面试Succession planning：接班计划Supplement pay benefits：补充报酬福利Supplemental unemployment benefits：补充失业福利Salary surveys：薪资调查Savings plan：储蓄计划Scallion plan：斯坎伦计划Scatter plot：散点分析Scientific management：科学管理Self directed teams：自我指导工作小组Self-actualization：自我实现Sensitivity training：敏感性训练Serialized interview：系列化面试Severance pay：离职金Sick leave：病假Situational interview：情境面试Survey feedback：调查反馈Sympathy strike：同情罢工System Ⅳ组织体系ⅣSystem I：组织体系ⅠTTask analysis：任务分析Team building：团队建设Team or group：班组Termination：解雇；终止Termination at will：随意终止Theory X：X理论Theory Y：Y理论Third-party involvement：第三方介入Training：培训Transactional analysis (TA) ：人际关系心理分析Trend analysis：趋势分析Trial sub stage：尝试阶段UUnsafe conditions：不安全环境Unclear performance standards：绩效评价标准不清Unemployment insurance：失业保险Unfair labor practice strike：不正当劳工活动罢工Unsafe acts：不安全行为VValidity：效度value-based hiring：以价值观为基础的雇佣Vroom-Yetton leadership trainman：维罗姆-耶顿领导能力训练Variable compensation：可变报酬Vestibule or simulated training：新雇员培训或模拟Vesting：特别保护权Voluntary bargaining：自愿谈判项目Voluntary pay cut：自愿减少工资方案Voluntary time off：自愿减少时间WWage carve：工资曲线Work samples：工作样本Work sampling technique：工作样本技术Work sharing：临时性工作分担Worker involvement：雇员参与计划Worker's benefits：雇员福利3. 目标 mission/ objective集体目标 group objective内部环境 internal environment外部环境 external environment计划 planning组织 organizing人事 staffing领导 leading控制 controlling步骤 process原理 principle方法 technique经理 manager总经理 general manager行政人员 administrator主管人员 supervisor企业 enterprise商业 business产业 industry公司 company效果 effectiveness效率 efficiency企业家 entrepreneur权利 power职权 authority职责 responsibility科学管理 scientific management现代经营管理 modern operational management 行为科学 behavior science生产率 productivity激励 motivate动机 motive法律 law法规 regulation经济体系 economic system 管理职能 managerial function 产品 product服务 service利润 profit满意 satisfaction归属 affiliation尊敬 esteem自我实现 self-actualization人力投入 human input盈余 surplus收入 income成本 cost资本货物 capital goods机器 machinery设备 equipment建筑 building存货 inventory（2）经验法 the empirical approach人际行为法 the interpersonal behavior approach集体行为法 the group behavior approach协作社会系统法 the cooperative social systems approach 社会技术系统法 the social-technical systems approach 决策理论法 the decision theory approach数学法 the mathematical approach系统法 the systems approach随机制宜法 the contingency approach管理任务法 the managerial roles approach经营法 the operational approach人际关系 human relation心理学 psychology态度 attitude压力 pressure冲突 conflict招聘 recruit鉴定 appraisal选拔 select培训 train报酬 compensation授权 delegation of authority协调 coordinate业绩 performance考绩制度 merit system表现 behavior下级 subordinate偏差 deviation检验记录 inspection record误工记录 record of labor-hours lost 销售量 sales volume产品质量 quality of products先进技术 advanced technology顾客服务 customer service策略 strategy结构 structure(3)领先性 primacy普遍性 pervasiveness忧虑 fear忿恨 resentment士气 morale解雇 layoff批发 wholesale零售 retail程序 procedure规则 rule规划 program预算 budget共同作用 synergy大型联合企业 conglomerate资源 resource购买 acquisition增长目标 growth goal专利产品 proprietary product竞争对手 rival晋升 promotion管理决策 managerial decision商业道德 business ethics有竞争力的价格 competitive price 供货商 supplier小贩 vendor利益冲突 conflict of interests派生政策 derivative policy开支帐户 expense account批准程序 approval procedure病假 sick leave休假 vacation工时 labor-hour机时 machine-hour资本支出 capital outlay现金流量 cash flow工资率 wage rate税收率 tax rate股息 dividend现金状况 cash position资金短缺 capital shortage总预算 overall budget资产负债表 balance sheet可行性 feasibility投入原则 the commitment principle 投资回报 return on investment生产能力 capacity to produce实际工作者 practitioner最终结果 end result业绩 performance个人利益 personal interest福利 welfare市场占有率 market share创新 innovation生产率 productivity利润率 profitability社会责任 public responsibility董事会 board of director组织规模 size of the organization组织文化 organizational culture目标管理 management by objectives评价工具 appraisal tool激励方法 motivational techniques控制手段 control device个人价值 personal worth优势 strength弱点 weakness机会 opportunity威胁 threat[url][/url] 海一角营销人网个人责任 personal responsibility顾问 counselor定量目标 quantitative objective定性目标 qualitative objective可考核目标 verifiable objective优先 priority工资表 payroll（4）策略 strategy政策 policy灵活性 discretion多种经营 diversification评估 assessment一致性 consistency应变策略 consistency strategy公共关系 public relation价值 value抱负 aspiration偏见 prejudice审查 review批准 approval主要决定 major decision分公司总经理 division general manager资产组合距阵 portfolio matrix明星 star问号 question mark现金牛 cash cow赖狗 dog采购 procurement人口因素 demographic factor地理因素 geographic factor公司形象 company image产品系列 product line合资企业 joint venture破产政策 liquidation strategy紧缩政策 retrenchment strategy战术 tactics(5)追随 followership个性 individuality性格 personality安全 safety自主权 latitude悲观的 pessimistic静止的 static乐观的 optimistic动态的 dynamic灵活的 flexible抵制 resistance敌对 antagonism折中 eclectic(6)激励 motivation潜意识 subconscious地位 status情感 affection欲望 desire压力 pressure满足 satisfaction自我实现的需要 needs for self-actualization尊敬的需要 esteem needs归属的需要 affiliation needs安全的需要 security needs生理的需要 physiological needs维持 maintenance保健 hygiene激励因素 motivator概率 probability强化理论 reinforcement theory 反馈 feedback奖金 bonus股票期权 stock option劳资纠纷 labor dispute缺勤率 absenteeism人员流动 turnover奖励 reward(7)特许经营 franchise热诚 zeal信心 confidence鼓舞 inspire要素 ingredient忠诚 loyalty奉献 devotion作风 style品质 trait适应性 adaptability进取性 aggressiveness热情 enthusiasm毅力 persistenceK1+478～K1+568段左侧片石混凝土挡土墙人际交往能力 interpersonal skills行政管理能力 administrative ability智力 intelligence专制式领导 autocratic leader民主式领导 democratic leader自由放任式领导 free-rein leader管理方格图 the managerial grid工作效率 work efficiency服从 obedience领导行为 leader behavior支持型领导 supportive leadership参与型领导 participative leadership指导型领导 instrumental leadership成就取向型领导 achievement-oriented leadership精品文档word文档可以编辑！谢谢下载！31页脚内容。
Forecast Sensitivity Analysis Using Random Perturbations使用随机扰动的预报敏感性分析
J J J s , , X Y Z 0 0 0
• As J is defined at the forecast time, N, we start at that time with:
J 2 X , N X N J 2 Y , N Y N J 2 Z N Z N
With J0=unperturbed run value And a0=unperturbed field value
Sensitivity of forecast Qv in box to initial boundary layer Qv perturbations
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Or:
t t J J T N 1 N N 1
And by recursion:
t t s J (((( J T )T )T )...T ) 0 N N 1 N 2 N 3 0
Terms on RHS associate, but don’t commute
• For a response function, J, we choose the total energy:
J X Y Z
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• And we might be interested in the sensitivity of J to the initial conditions:
In matrix notation this is:
1 a t b t Z t Y t N 1 N 1 J J J J J J , , , , a t 1 t X t N 1 X Y Z X Y Z N 1 N 1 N 1 N N N 0 X t 1 c t N 1
CMA-GFS对一次强降水过程预报评估及诊断改进
第 63 卷第 2 期2024 年 3 月Vol.63 No.2Mar.2024中山大学学报（自然科学版）（中英文）ACTA SCIENTIARUM NATURALIUM UNIVERSITATIS SUNYATSENICMA-GFS对一次强降水过程预报评估及诊断改进*王蕾，陈起英，徐国强，胡江林中国气象局地球系统数值预报中心 / 中国气象局地球系统数值预报重点开放实验室，北京100081摘要：2022年6月6~10日我国江淮-华南地区发生一次大范围强降水过程，造成重大洪涝灾害。
强降水发生在850 hPa切变线附近，当切变线南压至华南地区时，配合西南暖湿气流，造成华南地区大暴雨降水。
利用ERA5再分析数据及降水融合产品，评估了中国气象局全球同化预报系统（CMA-GFS）对此次过程的预报效果，诊断了预报偏差来源，进行了针对性敏感试验。
结果表明：CMA-GFS对影响此次雨带位置和移动的南亚高压脊线移动、副高范围变化趋势以及850 hPa切变线移动预报与再分析结果一致，因此对雨带位置和移动趋势预报效果较好，但存在切变线降水偏弱，福建东部沿海、广东北部及广西中部的分散性大暴雨漏报，广东北部雨带偏北及暖区暴雨漏报问题；偏差诊断显示，CMA-GFS对切变线北侧风速预报偏弱3～8 m/s，广西、广东中北部水汽辐合偏弱2×10-5～5×10-5 g/（m2·Pa·s），导致切变线降水偏弱，南侧南风分量偏强3～5 m/s导致广东北部雨带偏北约60 km，华南沿海850 hPa急流偏弱4～6 m/s，暖区水汽输送偏少4～10 g/（cm·hPa·s），导致暖区暴雨漏报；采用美国全球预报系统（NCEP-GFS）分析场初始化明显改善了雨带位置预报，采用WSM6云微物理方案及收紧积云对流参数化方案中对流触发条件改善了切变线降水中心位置和量级预报，暖区降水量级也由小到中雨增强至中到大雨。
sensitivity analysis definition -回复
sensitivity analysis definition -回复什么是敏感性分析？敏感性分析是一种用于评估模型和决策方案对输入参数变化的敏感程度的技术。
它可以帮助决策者理解模型的稳健性和可靠性，以及不确定性对预测结果的影响。
敏感性分析通常用于复杂的决策问题中，其中模型依赖于多个输入参数，并且这些参数的值可能存在变化和不确定性。
敏感性分析通过对输入参数进行系统地变化和测试，来测量结果输出对不同参数变化的敏感程度。
通过这个过程，我们可以识别出对模型结果影响最大的参数，从而更好地理解该参数对决策结果的重要性。
敏感性分析的目标是提供关于决策结果的更全面、更可靠的信息。
通过了解不同参数值对结果的影响，决策者可以更好地评估并理解决策的风险和潜在影响。
这也可以帮助决策者优化模型和改进决策方案，以使其更具鲁棒性和可靠性。
敏感性分析有多种方法和技术，其中包括：1. 单参数敏感性分析：该方法通过逐个改变输入参数的值，观察模型输出结果的变化情况。
这可以帮助确定每个参数值范围内的结果变化情况，以及参数值的敏感度。
2. 多参数敏感性分析：该方法基于多个输入参数同时变化的情况，评估模型结果的变化情况。
它能够提供更全面的结果分析，并帮助识别参数之间的相互作用。
3. 极端值分析：该方法通过对每个参数进行最小值和最大值的变化，来测试模型在输入参数的极端场景下的响应。
这可以帮助识别模型是否对极端情况具有准确的预测能力，并评估决策的鲁棒性。
4. 灵敏度指标分析：该方法使用统计指标来衡量和比较不同参数对模型结果的影响程度。
这些指标可以通过计算参数变化带来的结果变化幅度来确定。
敏感性分析在许多领域都有广泛的应用，包括金融、环境、运输和能源等。
它能够帮助决策者提供更全面、更可靠的决策支持，并帮助降低决策风险。
在实际应用中，敏感性分析应该与其他决策支持技术和方法相结合，以获得更准确和可靠的结果。
此外，敏感性分析应该是一个迭代过程，在不同决策阶段进行，以获得更全面和有效的分析结果。
译文：E9(R1)：临床试验中的估计目标与敏感性分析
E9(R1)当前版本：第2阶段草稿2017年6月16日目录1.目的与范围 (1)2.规划、设计、实施、分析和解释的框架 (3)3.估计目标 (4)3.1 描述 (4)3.2 解决伴发事件的策略 (5)3.3 估计目标的构建 (7)3.3.1 一般考虑 (7)3.3.2 治疗和试验背景的考虑 (8)4.对试验设计和实施的影响 (10)5.对试验分析的影响 (11)5.1 主要估计 (11)5.2 敏感性分析 (12)5.2.1 敏感性分析的作用 (12)5.2.2 敏感性分析方法的选择 (12)5.3 补充分析 (13)6.记录估计目标和敏感性分析 (14)7.通用示例 (14)7.1 一种伴发事件的情形 (15)7.2 两种伴发事件的情形 (19)词汇表 (21)1.目的与范围准确知情患者或医生以帮助正确选择药物，需要有对药物效应清晰的描述。
患者个体对治疗反应的不同使得这些描述变得复杂。
对同一种药物，有些患者可以耐受，并能遵守用药时间表，而有些则不能；一些患者需要改变药物剂量，或使用合并用药，有些则不需要。
定量评价治疗效应的方法有多种，可以基于耐受性、依从性以及是否需要合并用药等分别加以考虑。
若没有对治疗效应的准确理解，药物效应的大小及意义就存在被误解的风险。
通过验证性临床试验，通常是随机对照试验，我们得以量化治疗效应，并提供有效性与安全性证据，以支持监管决策。
随机试验一般不会出现基线混杂，但在临床试验中会发生某些事件，使疗效的描述和解释变得复杂。
在本增补中，伴发事件（intercurrent event，见术语表）指试验治疗开始后出现的事件，包括使用其他治疗（如补救治疗，方案违禁用药，或后线治疗），停止治疗，治疗转组（switching），或出现终端事件（如在某些情况下的死亡）。
选择和定义有效性和安全性变量、数据收集标准，及统计分析方法时，若没有事先考虑伴发事件的发生，可能会导致待估计的疗效模糊不清，甚至背离试验目的。
Forecast error sensitivity to the analysis预测误差的敏感性分析
Roger Daley’s idea
Mid-2019, Roger Daley joined NRL data assimilation when predictability scientists were preparing the FASTEX targeting campaign. It was clear that while sensitivity gradients products could identify sensitivity regions, they could not provide any guidance on how deployed extra-observations would have improved the forecast.
Forecast system performance investigation in two different seasons Monitoring the forecast impact
ECMWF Operational configuration Conclusion
Training course 2010
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Sensitivity Analysis Using Excel
Sensitivity Analysis Using Excel 2 The main goal of sensitivity analysis is to gain insight into which assumptions are critical, i.e., which assumptions affect choice. The process involves various ways of changing input values of the model to see the effect on the output value. In some decision situations you can use a single model to investigate several alternatives. In other cases, you may use a separate spreadsheet model for each alternative.2.1 MANUAL WHAT-IF ANALYSISUsing this approach, you enter values into cells C4:C6 and see what the effect is on net cash flow. For example, with the predetermined price of $29, you may think that Units Sold will be in the range between 500 and 900 units. Keeping other input assumptions at base case, the corresponding Net Cash Flows are $–1,500 and $6,900. When we vary a single input assumption, keeping all other input assumptions at their base case values, we say we are doing "one at a time" or "single-factor" sensitivity analysis.Figure 2.1 Model Display2.2 THRESHOLD VALUESYou are usually interested in how the input assumptions eventually affect the recommended choice in the decision problem. In the professor's summer decision problem, the software alternative (uncertain payoff) is being compared with teaching MBAs (payoff $4,300) and taking a vacation (payoff $0). An example of a threshold is to ask "How many units must I sell to do better with software than with teaching?"In other words, in the software spreadsheet model, what must the value of Units Sold in cell C4 be so that the value of Net Cash Flow in cell C8 is equal to $4,300? You could find the answer by repeatedly trying different values in cell C4. Or, you could solve a single algebra equation involving one unknown. Or, you could let Excel find the answer.22 Chapter 2 Sensitivity Analysis Using ExcelGoal SeekTo answer the question using an Excel feature, choose Tools | Goal Seek. In Excel 2007, choose Data | What-If Analysis | Goal Seek. In Excel terminology, you want to "Set cell" C8 "To value" 4300 "By changing cell" C4. Figure 2.2 shows the entries when you point to cells C8 and C4, in which case they appear in the range edit boxes as absolute references, indicated by the dollar signs.Figure 2.2 Goal Seek Dialog BoxAlternatively, you could type C8 and C4 into the edit boxes instead of pointing. When you click OK, Excel displays a Goal Seek Status message, as shown in Figure 2.3. If there is a complex or discontinuous relationship between the changing cell and the set cell, the Goal Seek Status message may say that it was not able to find a solution.Figure 2.3 Goal Seek StatusTo dismiss the message, click OK, in which case Excel shows the results in the spreadsheet model. Figure 2.4 shows that you must sell at least 776 units to have higher cash flow with the software than teaching MBAs. Cell C4 is formatted to display integer values. The formula bar shows that the exact value is 776.190476190476, using Excel's precision of fifteen significant digits.2.3 One-Variable Data Table23 Figure 2.4 Units Sold Threshold for $4,300 Net Cash FlowBreakeven PointA special case of threshold analysis is the breakeven point, usually defined as the sales volume at which contribution to profit and overhead equals fixed cost. In the software model, the breakeven point is the value for Units Sold when Net Cash Flow is zero. Using Goal Seek (not shown here), the breakeven point is found to be 571. The professor must sell at least 571 units to have higher cash flow with the software than taking a vacation. You could also use single-factor sensitivity analysis to determine threshold values for the other input assumptions of the model.2.3 ONE-VARIABLE DATA TABLEFor a model with numerical input and numerical output, use the One Input One Output feature of the SensIt sensitivity analysis add-in.Use Excel's Data Table command to perform sensitivity analysis for ranges of values of a model input, not just specific points.(1) enter a list of input values in a column, e.g., cells E3:E11 in Figure 2.5(2) enter a reference to an output formula at top of adjacent column, e.g., =C8 in cell F2(3) select entire table (two columns including formula), e.g., cells E2:F11Figure 2.5 Setup for One-Variable Data Table(4) choose Data | Table; in Excel 2007, choose Data | What-If Analysis | Data Table(5) since the list of values are in a column, use the "Column input cell" edit box to specify where those values should be input into the model, e.g., cell C4, as shown in Figure 2.624 Chapter 2 Sensitivity Analysis Using ExcelFigure 2.6 Data Table Dialog Box for One-Variable Example(6) the results appear as shown in columns E and F in Figure 2.7(7) select cell F2, r ight-click, choose Format Cells | Number | Custom, and enter a three-semicolon custom format so that the base case result is not displayed(8) use successive data tables to refine the search for the $0 thresholdFigure 2.7 Data Table Results for One-Variable, Net Cash Flow = $0Data tables are dynamic functions, so you could narrow the search by changing the Units Sold values in the original data table. Or, you could use multiple data tables to illustrate the search. We conclude that we must sell at least 572 units to break even.Figure 2.8 Data Table Results for One-Variable, Net Cash Flow = $43002.4 Two-Variable Data Table25 You can use the same approach to find the threshold value of units sold (777) for net cash flow of $4,300, as shown in Figure 2.8.Line Chart or XY (Scatter) ChartThe results of the Data Table command may be displayed using either a Line chart type or an XY (Scatter) chart type. Both types have a continuous numerical vertical axis. However, the Line chart has a categorical horizontal axis, which means that the worksheet data is displayed as equally-spaced text values. Only the XY (Scatter) chart has a numerical horizontal axis. Since the input values to a data table are usually equally-spaced, you can use either chart type to display the results. When the data for the horizontal axis are not equally-spaced, it is important to use the XY (Scatter) chart type.2.4 TWO-VARIABLE DATA TABLEFor ranges of values for two model inputsUseful for examining possible relationships and threshold combinationsSteps: enter list of one input's values in a columnenter list of other input's values in a rowenter reference to output formula in top left cornerFigure 2.9 Setup for Two-Variable Exampleselect entire table, choose Data | Table or Data | What-If Analysis | Data Tablespecify two input cells of the model, click OKFigure 2.10 Data Table Dialog Box for Two-Variable Example26 Chapter 2 Sensitivity Analysis Using ExcelFigure 2.11 Data Table Results for Two-Variable ExampleTo display the results as a 3-D Column chart or 3-D Surface chart, the cell at the intersection of the X labels and Y labels must be empty. If you clear the contents of F3, the values in the body of the data table change to zero. Copy the entire table, e.g., cells E1:O14, select cell Q1, and choose Edit | Paste Special | Values and number formats. Select cell R3, and choose Edit | Clear contents. Select R3:AA14 (in general, X labels on the left, Y labels on the top, Z values in the body of the table, and a blank cell in the top left corner of the range).Figure 2.12 Data Values for Two-Variable ExampleUse the Chart Wizard to create a 3-D Column chart. In Excel 2007, choose Insert | (Charts) Column | 3-D Column. Do not choose the Stacked or Clustered types of 3-D Column charts. Select the legend, and press the Delete key. To add axis titles, click the chart to select it, and choose Chart | Chart Options | Titles. The X axis is Unit Variable Cost, the Y axis is Units Sold, and the Z axis is Net Cash Flow. In Excel 2007, select the chart, and choose Chart Tools | Layout | (Labels) Axis Titles. The primary horizontal axis is Unit Variable Cost, the primary vertical axis is Net Cash Flow, and the depth axis is Units Sold.2.5 Overall Worst Case and Best Case27 Figure 2.13 3-D Column Chart for Two-Variable Example2.5 OVERALL WORST CASE AND BEST CASEFigure 2.14 shows ranges for each uncontrollable input assumption. The decision maker may investigate the base case or best-guess assumption first. Next extreme values are specified for each input. Each of the extreme values is based on business judgment, perhaps by consulting with colleagues. The extreme values may be the absolute minimum and maximum that the decision maker thinks are possible. Or, if the decision maker can think about the uncertainty using probability, he or she may use the 10% fractile as a minimum value and the 90% fractile as the maximum. Or, the 5% fractile and 95% fractile may be specified. Whatever method is used, the extreme values for each input assumption should be equally extreme so that the results are comparable.Figure 2.14 Extreme Values for Input Assumptions28 Chapter 2 Sensitivity Analysis Using ExcelFigure 2.15 shows the net cash flow of $10,700 using the best case scenario: high values for revenue inputs and low values for cost inputs.Figure 2.15 Best Case ScenarioFigure 2.16 shows the net cash flow of –$6,000 using the worst case scenario: low values for revenue inputs and high values for cost inputs.Worst Case ScenarioFigure 2.16。
post hoc sensitivity analysis -回复
post hoc sensitivity analysis -回复什么是“后事敏感性分析（post hoc sensitivity analysis）”？在研究数据和科学研究中，我们经常需要根据不同的变量和参数进行推断和分析。
然而，这些变量和参数往往都是基于某种假设或先验知识的，而不是根据真实观测值确定的。
这就意味着，我们所得到的结论和结果可能受到这些假设的影响，而可能产生不确定性。
为了准确评估这种不确定性对研究结论的影响，可以进行后事敏感性分析。
后事敏感性分析是一种通过对假设和参数进行系统性变动，以评估模型或研究结果在不同情况下的稳健性和健壮性的方法。
它可以帮助研究人员了解在某些因素或参数发生变化时，研究结果是否仍然保持一致并具有可靠性。
通过这种分析，研究人员可以更好地理解模型的鲁棒性和结果的解释能力。
为了进行后事敏感性分析，研究人员需要确定要进行变动的参数和假设。
这些参数可以包括模型中的固定效应、随机效应、阈值或截断点等。
假设可以涉及影响研究结果的潜在偏差、错误或缺失数据等。
接下来，研究人员需要选择适当的变动范围和方式，来模拟不同的情况和假设。
一种常用的后事敏感性分析方法是参数抽样法，通过随机从预先定义的参数范围内进行抽样，生成一系列模型和结果。
这些模型和结果可以涵盖了可能的参数和假设变化情况，从而帮助研究人员评估这些变化对结果的影响。
另一种常用的方法是模型重建法，即通过根据不同参数和假设值重新建立模型，分析结果的稳定性和一致性。
进行后事敏感性分析还需要适当的统计指标来评估结果的差异和稳定性。
常用的指标包括标准差、置信区间、相关系数等。
这些指标可以帮助确定模型或结果是否对参数和假设的变化敏感，从而提供了更全面和准确的研究结论。
需要注意的是，后事敏感性分析并不能消除参数和假设对结果的影响，而是提供了一种评估和解释这种影响的方法。
在进行后事敏感性分析时，研究人员应该明确指出所使用的变动范围和方式，并解释结果的稳定性和可靠性。
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• For the Lorenz model with 3 degrees of freedom, the adjoint is easy to code and implement.
• For a complex mesoscale model with millions of degrees of freedom and thousands of lines of code, differentiation is difficult.
ZN XN1YN1t ZN1(1ct)
• For a response function, J, we choose the total energy:
JXN 2 YN 2ZN 2
• And we might be interested in the sensitivity of J to the initial conditions:
J J X N J Y N J Z N Y N 1 X N Y N 1 Y N Y N 1 Z N Y N 1 J J X N J Y N J Z N Z N 1 X N Z N 1 Y N Z N 1 Z N Z N 1
Adjoints are integral parts of 4-dimensional variational data assimilation systems (4DVAR) in which the model state is sought which minimizes the difference between the forecast and a set of observations. The sensitivity of model error to initial fields is determined by an adjoint calculation. This is then used in a minimization scheme.
sXJ0
,
J Y0
,
J Z0
• As J is defined at the forecast time, N, we start at that time with:
X J N 2 X N , Y J N 2 Y N , Z J N 2 Z N
• Adjoints are easiest to understand in terms of the chain rule .
• Consider, for example, the following implementation of the Lorenz model (1963):
b t Z N 1 t 1 t
X N 1 t
Y N 1 t X N 1 t 1 c t
Or:
JN t-1 JN t T N -1
And by recursion:
s J 0 t ( ( J N tT N 1 ) ( N 2 ) T ( N 3 ) T 0 ) . . . T
• For the sensitivity of J to the model state at the previous time step, we invoke the chain rule:
J J X N J Y N J Z N X N 1 X N X N 1 Y N X N 1 Z N X N 1
Using simple first order time differencing, the forecast parameters of the Lorenz model over one time step are:
XN XN1(1at)YN1(at)
YN XN1(bt)YN1(1t)ZN1XN1t
• Also, calculating the adjoint requires storing the model state at every time step from the forward run.
Sensitivity Analysis of Mesoscale Forecasts from Large Ensembles of Randomly and Non-Randomly
Perturbed Model Runs
William Martin
November 10, 2019
Sensitivity Analysis Has a Number of Uses:
-- Identifying physical connections -- Data assimilation -- Targeting observations -- Weather modification
ADJOINTS
For determining the sensitivity field of a forecast to conditions at an earlier time, the use of the adjoint of a forward numerical model has, until recently, been the only method available.
In matrix notation this is:
X J N 1 ,
J, Y N 1
Z J N 1 X J N ,
J, Y N
1 a t Z J N a 0 t