Chapter 14 Future Trading
金融外汇买卖相关英语词汇翻译
金融外汇买卖相关英语词汇翻译金融外汇买卖相关英语词汇翻译Accepted 承兑Accrued interest累计利息advance 放款American style 美式选择权appreciation 升值Arbitrage 套利交易asset allocation 资产分配原则Asset swap 就持有的资产利息进行交换Asset/liability management 资产负债管理Assets liquidity 资产的流动性Assets safety 资产安全Assets yield 资产的获利性AT the money (ATM) 价平Auction 标售Authority letter 授权书Banker’s acceptance 银行承兑汇票Basis swap (floating -against floating IRS)Bear call spread 买权看空价差Bear put spread 卖权看空价差Bearer form 持有人形式best order 最佳价格交易指示单Bid rate 借入利率（或买入价格，汇率）Big figure 大数（交易时忽略不报的前几位数）Book entry form 无实体形式Break-even exchange rate 两平点汇率Bretton Woods system 布莱登国际货币制度Broken date 畸零天期(见Odd date)Bull call spread 买权看多价差Bull put spread 卖权看多价差Buy call 买入买权Buy or sell forward 买卖远期Buy or sell spot 买卖即期Buy put 买入卖权Buyer 买方Calendar spread 水平式价差策略Call option 买权Calling customer 询价者Calling party 询价者Cash flow book 现金流量登记薄Cash flow gap 现金流量缺口Cash flow gap 资金缺口Cash flow projection现金流量之预期Cash 当日交割CD(certificate of deposit) 存单Chain method 联算法Chief money dealer首席货币交易员Clearing house 清算所Commercial hedge 进出口商避险Commercial paper商业本票Commodity futures trading commission 美国期货交易委员会Competitive bid 竞标Contract date 定约日Contract limit 契约额度Contract risk 契约风险Counter party 交易对手Country limit 国家额度Coupon rate 票面利率Coupon swap (fixed-against floating IRS)Cover 补回，冲销covered interest arbitrage 无汇率波动风险的套利操作Credit risk 信用风险Cross hedge 交叉避险Cross rates 交叉汇率（通过第三种货币计算两种货币的汇率）Currency future 外汇期货Currency futures contracts 外汇期货契约Currency futures 外汇期货Current yield 当期收益率Cut off time 营业截止时间Day trading 当日冲销（使当日净部位为零）Dealer’s authority 交易权限Dealing day 交易日Dealing room 交易室Dealing ticket 交易单Delivery Date 交割日Direct quotation=price quotation直接报价Discount 贴水Dj index future 道·琼斯指数期货合约Draft 汇票Duration 存续期间Easy money 低价货币Effective interest rate 有效利率Engineered swap transaction操纵式换率交易（将买入卖出两个不同交易合并，使其具有换汇交易的效果）European currency unit(ECU)欧洲货币单位Exchange control system 外汇管制制度Exercise price 履约价格Expiry date 到期日Face value 面值（股票、票据上记载的名目价值）Firm market 行情坚挺的市场Firm order 确定指示单Fixed exchange rate system 固定汇率制定Fixed rate liability 利率固定负债Fixing date 指标利率定订基准日Flat yield curve 水平收益率曲线floating exchange 浮动汇率制度Floor broker 场内经纪商Floor trader 场内交易商Follow up action 动态策略Forward against forward远期对远期换汇交易Forward rate agreement（FRA）远期利率协定Forward rate 远期汇率Forward value date 远期外汇到期日FT-SE 100 Index Future 伦敦金融时报指数期货Futures 期货FX risk 汇率风险Gapping 期差操作General floating 普遍浮动Generic Swap 标准型的IRS 交易gold exchange standard金汇兑本位制度gold export point 黄金输出点Gold rush 黄金抢购风gold standard 金本位制度Government bonds 政府债券Group of Twenty 20国委员会Hang Seng Index 恒生估价指数Hedging interest rate risk规避利率波动风险Hit 询价者以bid rate 卖出被报价币给报价银行Holding position 持有部位If order 附条件交易指示单IMM 芝加哥国际货币市场In the money (ITM) 价内Index swap 利率交换indirect quotation=quantity quotation 间接报价Inter bank offer rates 银行同业拆放利率Interest rate futures 利率期货Interest rate parity theory 利率平价理论Interest rate return 报酬率Interest rate swaps(IRS)利率交换intermediary 中间人international payment system 国际支付制度Intra day limit 日间额度Intra-day trader日间交易者，短线交易员Intrinsic value 隐含价值Junior money dealer资浅货币交易员LIBOR 伦敦银行同业拆借利率LIFFE 伦敦国际金融期货交易所Line of credit 信用额度Line of limit 额度限制liquidity premium流通性风险补贴London inter bank bid rate (LIBID) 伦敦银行间存款利率Long butterfly call spread 买入碟式买权价差Long butterfly put spread 买入碟式卖权价差Long currency future contract 买入外汇期货契约Long Straddle 买入跨式部位，下跨式部位Long strangle 买入不同履约价格的跨式部位Margin call 追加保证金Margin trading 保证金交易Mark to market 调整至市场价Market order 市场价格指示单Mismatch gapping 到期缺口Money market swap IRS持有时间短于两年者Money position 货币部位long position 买超或长部位（借入的金额大于贷）Monthly limit 每月限额multiple currency reserve system多种货币准备制度Nasdaq Index Future 纳斯达克指数期货Near the money 价近Negative yield curve 负收益率曲线Negotiable certificate of deposit 可转让定期存单Net mismatch 净缺口Nikki index future 日经指数期货Nominal interest rate 名目利率Nominal Interest rate名目利率（票面或双方约定的利率，减通货膨胀等于实质利率）Non earning asset 非利率敏感资产Non profitable liability非利率敏感负债Non reference currency 报价币Notional amount 承作金额Odd date（Odd maturity）畸零天期，畸零期（FX交易非整周整月的日期，如10天，40天）Off-balance Sheet 表外交易工具（衍生性金融产品）Offer rate 贷放利率（或卖出价格，汇率）Offset 对冲，轧平Open spot net position 即期净部位Operation risk 作业风险Option date forward 任选交割日的远期汇率Option 选择权Options reserve 选择权保留额度Order 交易指示单Out of the money(OTM) 价外Outright forward 远期直接汇率Over the counter店头市场，柜台交易市场Overall limit 总合限额Overbought 买超Overnight(O/N) 当日交割之隔夜拆放Oversold 卖超Par 报价与被报价币的利率相同，换汇汇率为零。
江恩期货教程-中英文
江恩期货教程Gann Master Commodities Course 江恩生平及简历江恩(1878-1955)：于1878年6月6日出生于美国德克萨斯州的路芙根市（Lufkin Texas)，父母是爱尔兰裔移民。
少年时代的江恩在火车上卖报纸和送电报，还贩卖明信片、食品、小饰物等。
江恩被世人所津津乐道的辉煌事亦是1909年他在25个交易里赚了10倍！这一年再婚的江恩接受当时著名的《股票行情与投资文摘》杂志访问。
在杂志编辑的监督下，江恩在25个交易日里进行286次交易，其中264次获利，其余22次亏损，胜算高达92．3%。
而资本则增值了10倍。
平均交易间隔是20分钟。
在华尔街投机生涯中，江恩大约赚取了5000万美元的利润。
在今天，相当于5亿美元以上的数量。
虽然和其他的一些投资大师相比，他的财富数量并不算什么，但是我认为最重要的是他靠自己的新发现去赚取他应得的财富。
1902年，江恩在24岁时，第一次入市买卖棉花期货。
1906年，江恩到奥克拉荷马当经纪，既为自己炒，亦管理客户。
在1908年，江恩30岁时，他移居纽约，成立了自己的经纪业务。
同年8月8日，发展了他最重要的市场趋势预测方法，名为“控制时间因素” 。
经过多次准确预测后，江恩声名大噪。
最为人瞩目的是1909年10月美国“The Ticketr and Investment Digest”杂志编辑Richard .Wyckoff的一次实地访问。
在杂志人员的监察下，江恩在十月份的二十五个市场交易日中共进行286次买卖，结果，264获利，22次损失，获利率竟达92.3%。
据江恩一位朋友基利的回述：“1909年夏季，江恩预测9月小麦期权将会见1.20美元。
可是，到9月30日芝加哥时间十二时，该期权仍然在1.08美元之下徘徊，江恩的预测眼看落空。
江恩说：…如果今日收市时不见1.20美元，将表示我整套分析方法都有错误。
不管现在是什么价，小麦一定要见1.20美元。
健康经济学课件Chapter14
MEASURING EFFECTIVENESS
Ch 14 | Health technology assessment
How is “effectiveness” measured?
Definition: a subset of treatment strategies for a condition that are not dominated by any other treatment. Any treatment on the CEF is said to be potentially cost-effective.
A year lived in perfect health has a quality of weight of q = 1.
Maybe a year with chronic cough and insomnia is only worth q = 0.5, or a year confined to a wheelchair is only worth q = 0.25.
In some sense, people can avoid a reading disability for an average price of $7,241.
Note that the ICER does not make a determination about whether this is worth it or not, it is just an empirical fact about costs.
财务分析与证券定价(英文)chapter(4)
Link to Previous Chapter
Chapter 14 brought the focus of forecasting to the profitability of operations
and growth in net operating assets. It also
developed simple forecasting schemes based solely on information in
How is financial statement analysis utilized in forecasting ?
How are proforma
future financial statements prepared ?
How is pro forma analysis
used in strategy decisions ?
financial statements
Link to Chapter 10
Chapters 11 and 12 laid out the analysis of Financial statements that uncovers
the drivers of residual
earnings
This Chapter
Convert Forecasts to a
4
V alu ation
Trading on the Valuation
5
Outside Investor Com pare Value with Price to BUY, SELL or HOLD
Inside Investor Com pare Value with Cost to ACCEPT or REJECT Strategy
chapter 14 会展服务 Exhibition and Convention Service
The Convention Manager should have already ironed out the payment details with the party's lead planner prior to the event. The final step at the close of the event is to go over the bill with the lead planner, answer any questions, finalize payment, give him/her a receipt for all charges, and ask for any feedback from the guests as to the service, hotel, staff, and facilities. Even if the function was performed wonderfully by the hotel and staff, getting opinions from the guests is a valuable tool to making adjustments and ensuring that the next event will be even more successful!
6
Dialogue
7
Action Learning
8
Reading
Introduce exhibition and convention service Help convention delegates to register
Look at the following pictures and try to put appropriate terms under the pictures.
克鲁格曼 国际经济学第10版 英文答案 国际金融部分krugman_intlecon10_im_14_GE
Chapter 14 (3)Exchange Rates and the Foreign Exchange Market: An Asset ApproachChapter OrganizationExchange Rates and International TransactionsDomestic and Foreign PricesExchange Rates and Relative PricesThe Foreign Exchange MarketThe ActorsBox: Exchange Rates, Auto Prices, and Currency WarsCharacteristics of the MarketSpot Rates and Forward RatesForeign Exchange SwapsFutures and OptionsThe Demand for Foreign Currency AssetsAssets and Asset ReturnsBox: Nondeliverable Forward Exchange Trading in AsiaRisk and LiquidityInterest RatesExchange Rates and Asset ReturnsA Simple RuleReturn, Risk, and Liquidity in the Foreign Exchange MarketEquilibrium in the Foreign Exchange MarketInterest Parity: The Basic Equilibrium ConditionHow Changes in the Current Exchange Rate Affect Expected ReturnsThe Equilibrium Exchange RateInterest Rates, Expectations, and EquilibriumThe Effect of Changing Interest Rates on the Current Exchange RateThe Effect of Changing Expectations on the Current Exchange RateCase Study: What Explains the Carry Trade?SummaryAPPENDIX TO CHAPTER 14 (3): Forward Exchange Rates and Covered Interest Parity© 2015 Pearson Education LimitedChapter OverviewThe purpose of this chapter is to show the importance of the exchange rate in translating foreign prices into domestic values as well as to begin the presentation of exchange rate determination. Central to the treatment of exchange rate determination is the insight that exchange rates are determined in the same way a s other asset prices. The chapter begins by describing how the relative prices of different countries’ goods are affected by exchange rate changes. This discussion illustrates the central importance of exchange rates for cross-border economic linkages. The determination of the level of the exchange rate is modeled in the context of the exchange rate’s role as the relative price of foreign and domestic currencies, using the uncovered interest parity relationship.The euro is used often in examples. Some students may not be familiar with the currency or aware of which countries use it; a brief discussion may be warranted. A full treatment of EMU and the theories surrounding currency unification appears in Chapter 20(9).The description of the foreign exchange market stresses the involvement of large organizations (commercial banks, corporations, nonbank financial institutions, and central banks) and the highly integrated natureof the market. The nature of the foreign exchange market ensures that arbitrage occurs quickly so that common rates are offered worldwide. A comparison of the trading volume in foreign exchange markets to that in other markets is useful to underscore how quickly price arbitrage occurs and equilibrium is restored. Forward foreign exchange trading, foreign exchange futures contracts, and foreign exchange options play an important part in currency market activity. The use of these financial instruments to eliminate short-run exchange rate risk is described.The explanation of exchange rate determination in this chapter emphasizes the modern view that exchange rates move to equilibrate asset markets. The foreign exchange demand and supply curves that introduce exchange rate determination in most undergraduate texts are not found here. Instead, there is a discussion of asset pricing and the determination of expected rates of return on assets denominated in different currencies.Students may already be familiar with the distinction between real and nominal returns. The text demonstrates that nominal returns are sufficient for comparing the attractiveness of different assets. There is a brief description of the role played by risk and liquidity in asset demand, but these considerations are not pursued in this chapter. (The role of risk is taken up again in Chapter 18[7].)Substantial space is devoted to the topic of comparing expected returns on assets denominated in domestic and foreign currency. The text identifies two parts of the expected return on a foreign currency asset (measured in domestic currency terms): the interest payment and the change in the value of the foreign currency relative to the domestic currency over the period in which the asset is held. The expected return on a foreign asset is calculated as a function of the current exchange rate for given expected values of the future exchange rate and the foreign interest rate.The absence of risk and liquidity considerations implies that the expected returns on all assets traded in the foreign exchange market must be equal. It is thus a short step from calculations of expected returns on foreign assets to the interest parity condition. The foreign exchange market is shown to be in equilibrium only when the interest parity condition holds. Thus, for given interest rates and given expectations about future exchange rates, interest parity determines the current equilibrium exchange rate. The interest parity diagram introduced here is instrumental in later chapters in which a more general model is presented. Because a command of this interest parity diagram is an important building block for future work, we recommend drills that employ this diagram.The result that a dollar appreciation makes foreign currency assets more attractive may appear counterintuitive to students—why does a stronger dollar reduce the expected return on dollar assets? The key to explaining this point is that, under the static expectations and constant interest rates assumptions, a dollar appreciation today implies a greater future dollar depreciation; so, an American investor can expect to gain not only theChapter 14Exchange Rates and the Foreign Exchange Market: An Asset Approach 77© 2015 Pearson Education Limitedforeign interest payment but also the extra return due to the dollar’s additional future depreciation. The following diagram illustrates this point. In this diagram, the exchange rate at time t + 1 is expected to be equal to E . If the exchange rate at time t is also E , then expected depreciation is 0. If, however, the exchange rate depreciates at time t to E ', then it must appreciate to reach E at time t + 1. If the exchange rate appreciates today to E ", then it must depreciate to reach E at time t + 1. Thus, under static expectations, a depreciation today implies an expected appreciation and vice versa.Figure 14(3)-1This pedagogical tool can be employed to provide some further intuition behind the interest parityrelationship. Suppose that the domestic and foreign interest rates are equal. Interest parity then requires that the expected depreciation is equal to zero and that the exchange rate today and next period is equal to E . If the domestic interest rate rises, people will want to hold more domestic currency deposits. The resulting increased demand for domestic currency drives up the price of domestic currency, causing the exchange rate to appreciate. How long will this continue? The answer is that the appreciation of the domestic currency continues until the expected depreciation that is a consequence of the domestic currency’s appreciation today just offsets the interest differential.The text presents exercises on the effects of changes in interest rates and of changes in expectations of the future exchange rate. These exercises can help develop students’ intuition. For example, the initial result of a rise in U.S. interest rates is a higher demand for dollar-denominated assets and thus an increase in the price of the dollar. This dollar appreciation is large enough that the subsequent expected dollar depreciation just equalizes the expected return on foreign currency assets (measured in dollar terms) and the higher dollar interest rate.The chapter concludes with a case study looking at a situation in which interest rate parity may not hold: the carry trade. In a carry trade, investors borrow money in low-interest currencies and buy high-interest-rate currencies, often earning profits over long periods of time. However, this transaction carries an element of risk as the high-interest-rate currency may experience an abrupt crash in value. The case study discusses a popular carry trade in which investors borrowed low-interest-rate Japanese yen to purchase high-interest-rate Australian dollars. Investors earned high returns until 2008, when the Australian dollar abruptly crashed, losing 40 percent of its value. This was an especially large loss as the crash occurred amidst a financial crisis in which liquidity was highly valued. Thus, when we factor in this additional risk of the carry trade, interest rate parity may still hold.The Appendix describes the covered interest parity relationship and applies it to explain the determination of forward rates under risk neutrality as well as the high correlation between movements in spot and forward rates.Answers to Textbook Problems1. At an exchange rate of 1.05 $ per euro, a 5 euro bratwurst costs 1.05$/euro ⨯ 5 euros = $5.25. Thus,the bratwurst in Munich is $1.25 more expensive than the hot dog in Boston. The relative price is $5.25/$4 = 1.31. A bratwurst costs 1.31 hot dogs. If the dollar depreciates to 1.25$/euro, the bratwurst now costs 1.25$/euro ⨯ 5 euros = $6.25, for a relative price of $6.25/$4 = 1.56. You have to give up1.56 hot dogs to buy a bratwurst. Hot dogs have become relatively cheaper than bratwurst after thedepreciation of the dollar.2. If it were cheaper to buy Israeli shekels with Swiss francs that were purchased with dollars than todirectly buy shekels with dollars, then people would act upon this arbitrage opportunity. The demand for Swiss francs from people who hold dollars would rise, causing the Swiss franc to rise in value against the dollar. The Swiss franc would appreciate against the dollar until the price of a shekel would be exactly the same whether it was purchased directly with dollars or indirectly through Swiss francs.3. Take for example the exchange rate between the Argentine peso, the US dollar, the euro, and theBritish pound. One dollar is worth 5.3015 pesos, while a euro is worth 7.0089 pesos. To rule out triangular arbitrage, we need to see how many pesos you would get if you first bought euros with your dollars (at an exchange rate of 0.7564 euros per dollar), then used these euros to buy pesos. In other words, we need to compute E D = E EUR/USD × E ARG/EUR = 0.7564× 7.0089 = 5.3015 pesos per dollar. This is almost exactly (with rounding) equal to the direct rate of pesos per dollar.Following the same procedure for the British pound yields a similar result.We need to say that triangular arbitrage is “approximately” ruled out for several reasons. First,rounding error means that there may be some small discrepancies between the direct and indirect exchange rates we calculate. Second, transactions costs on trading currencies will prevent complete arbitrage from occurring. That said, the massive volume of currencies traded make these transactions costs relatively small, leading to “near” perfect arbitrage.4. A depreciation of Chinese yuan makes the import more expensive. Since the demand for oil isinelastic, China needs to import oil from the oil exporting countries. This leads to spending more on oil when the exchange rate falls in value. This can cause the balance of payment to worsen in the short run. Hence, a depreciation of domestic currency may or may not have a favourable impact on the balance of payment in the short run.5. The dollar rates of return are as follows:a. ($250,000 - $200,000)/$200,000 = 0.25.b. ($275 - $255)/$255 = 0.08.c. There are two parts to this return. One is the loss involved due to the appreciation of the dollar;the dollar appreciation is ($1.38 - $1.50)/$1.50 =-0.08. The other part of the return is the interest paid by the London bank on the deposit, 10 percent. (The size of the deposit is immaterial to thecalculation of the rate of return.) In terms of dollars, the realized return on the London depositis thus 2 percent per year.。
曼昆经济学原理Chapter14竞争市场中的企业 中英文笔记
Chapter 14 Firms in Competitive Markets 竞争市场中的企业§1. 什么是竞争市场What is A Competitive Market?一．竞争的含义竞争市场又称完全竞争市场 A perfectly competitive market1.三个特征characteristics：①市场中有许多买者和许多卖者There are many buyers and sellers in the market.②各个卖者所提供的物品大体上是相同的The goods offered by the various sellers are largely the same.③企业可以自由地进入或退出市场Firms can freely enter or exit the market.2.两个结果outcomes：①市场上任何一个买者或卖者的行动对市场价格的影响都可以忽略不计The actions of any single buyer or seller in the market have a negligible impact on themarket price.②每一个买者和卖者都把市场价格作为既定的Each buyer and seller takes the market price as given.3.定义：一个有着许多交易相同产品的买者与卖者，以至于每一个买者与卖者都是价格接受者的市场 A market with many buyers and sellers trading identical products so that each buyer and seller is a price taker△价格接受者a price taker：买者和卖者必须接受市场决定的价格Buyers and sellers must accept the price determined by the market二．竞争企业的收益The Revenue of a Competitive Firm1.总收益Total revenue：①一个企业的总收益等于销售价格乘以销售量TR = (P X Q)for a firm is the selling price times the quantity sold；②总收益与产量同比例变化is proportional to the amount of output2.平均收益Average revenue：①等于总收益除以销售量AR = TR÷Q = (P X Q)÷Q = Pis total revenue divided by the quantity sold②在完全竞争市场，平均收益等于物品的价格equals the price of the good③告诉我们企业从普通一个单位产品销售中得到了多少收益tells us how much revenue a firm receives for the typical unit sold3.边际收益Marginal revenue：①增加一个单位销售量所引起的总收益变化MR =ΔTR /ΔQis the change in total revenue from an additional unit sold②对竞争企业来说，边际收益等于物品的销售价格for competitive firms, equals the price of the good§2. 利润最大化与竞争企业的供给曲线Profit Maximization and the Competitive Firm’s Supply Curve 一．边际成本曲线和企业的供给决策（1）竞争企业的利润最大化Profit Maximization for the Competitive Firm1.竞争企业的目标是利润最大化The goal of a competitive firm is to maximize profit.这就意味着企业想生产某一产量，使总收益与总成本的差最大。
CH14 Secondary Markets
C h a p t e r14S e c o n d a r y M a r k e t sFUNCTIONS OF SECONDARY MARKETSPeriodic trading of a security reveals the consensus price which an asset commands on the market. Thus a prospective issuer of new securities knows his costs or at what price level he must set his new bonds or stocks. In turn the prospective investor must determine whether that price meets his needs for value or returns. Liquidity provides the investor with an opportunity to reverse his trade. Without the ability to sell financial assets investors would be reluctant to purchase them in the first place. So liquidity actually enhances placement of securities for the issuer. By providing a place for buyers and sellers to trade secondary markets through brokers and dealers, reduce search costs. With large trading quantities and continuous trading, transactions costs are kept low.TRADING LOCATIONSIn the United States there are both national (e.g. New York Stock Exchange) and regional (e.g. Midwest, Pacific) stock exchanges. Much trading (most of outstanding bonds) is on the over-the-counter market (OTC), wherein dealers buy for and sell from their own inventories. Members are linked by telecommunication, so no one physical setting is needed. The dominant OTC market in the U.S. is NASDAQ. In contrast, the organized exchanges provide for trades in designated locations through brokers.MARKET STRUCTURESMany organized exchange markets are continuous in that trading goes on in the same security all day. Thus no one price is fixed for a day, it constantly changes. In a call market the orders are batched and an auction fixes the day’s clearing price.Many European markets operate in this manner, and the London gold price is set in this way. The New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) opens daily with calls--opening prices fixed by the specialists trading in their designated securities. From there on, however, the market functions in a continuous manner, and closing prices may bear little resemblance to opening ones.PERFECT MARKETSPerfect markets exist when there are large numbers of buyers and sellers so that all participants are price takers, not price setters. There should be investors who buy long and sell short. The latter activity helps reduce an upward bias in prices. There should also be no transactions costs or market friction, any impediments to interactions of supply and demand for the commodity exchanged. Friction can include: (1) commissions, (2) bid-ask spreads, (3) handling and clearance charges, (4) taxes, (5) costs of acquiring information, (6) trading restrictions, (7) restrictions on market makers, (8) regulatory halts to trading.ROLE OF BROKERS AND DEALERS IN REAL MARKETSIn the real world all the stipulations for a perfect market do not exist. Not all traders can be present in a marketplace, nor are they all skilled in negotiation or equally well-informed about securities and securities prices. Hence the need for brokers and dealers who bring transactions costs into the picture.BrokersBrokers act on behalf of buyers and sellers. They receive, transmit, and execute trading orders. For these services they receive commissions in terms of a percent of the dollar value of the trade. They also provide other services such as research, recordkeeping, and advising. Brokers who only execute orders are called discount brokers and charge lower commissions.Dealers as Market MakersMarkets may be imperfect in that a temporary imbalance may exist between prospective buyers and sellers of particular securities. Dealers, by keeping an inventory of securities supply continuity, for they are always willing to buy and sell. Investors, however, pay a price of immediacy, which is the broker’s compensation for providing instant liquidity. Thus they play a role in price stabilization. By taking the opposite side of a trade when there are no other orders, the dealer prevents the price from materially diverging from the price at which a recent trade was consummated.Some dealers, like exchange “specialists,” have privileged information in terms of the limit orders they carry from other dealers and brokers. Such orders indicate the amount of investor interest above and below current market prices. Trends help specialists determine when to trade to and from their own account in order to fulfill their obligatio n to exchanges to maintain “fair and orderly” markets. Also, the dealer acts as an auctioneer in some market structures, thereby providing order and fairness in the operations of the market.Dealers have to be compensated for bearing risk. A dealer’s pos ition may involve carrying inventory of security or seller security that is not in inventory. There are three types of risks associated with maintaining a long or short position: (1) uncertainty about the future price of thesecurity, (2) expected time to unwind a position and its uncertainty, (3) risk of information asymmetry.In setting opening prices and in taking positions when required by market conditions, specialists carry out their duties in organized exchanges. Since they are not brokers, dealers do not charge commissions. Their compensation comes from the bid-ask spread on the securities they buy and sell. Normally, the ask price exceeds the bid price. The amount of the spread will vary with each security and is determined by the cost of order processing and compensation for risk.MARKET EFFICIENCYOperating EfficiencyOperational efficiency exists when trading occurs at the lowest available transactions costs. Until the mid-70s the commission was fixed on brokerage costs, regardless of size of order. Now commissions are negotiated, with major institutions obtaining low rates. The arrival of the discount broker has also helped bring rates down.Pricing EfficiencyIn an active strategy, investors seek to capitalize on what they perceive to be the mispricing of a security. In an efficient market, however, prices should reflect all public and private information. New information enters randomly, hence the application of the “random walk” to stock prices. Thus, on average, excess returns cannot be made on the market. Empirical studies have shown that securities markets in this country are reasonably efficient, though some anomalies exist. Hence, there is a rising interest in the passive strategy of indexing (buying and holding stocks in major market indicates).ELECTRONIC TRADINGElectronic Bond TradingTraditionally, bond trading has been based on broker/dealer trading desks. In recent years, however, there has been an evolution away from traditional bond towards electronic trading. There are several reasons for this transition. Because the bond business has been principal rather than an agency business, the capital of the market makers is critical. The increase in the volatility of bond markets has increased the capital required From bond broker/dealer. Finally, the profitability of bond market making has declined.The combination of the increased risk and the decreased profitability of bond market making has induced the major market makers to de-emphasize this business in the allocation of capital. This retreat by traditional market making firms opened the door for electronic trading. Electronic trading in bonds has helped fill this developing vacuum and providing liquidity to the bondmarket. Table 15-1 summarizes the major issues in EBT.ANSWERS TO QUESTIONS FOR CHAPTER 14(Questions are in bold print followed by answers.)1. Consider two transactions. The Norwegian government sells bonds in the United States. The buyer of one of those bonds is an insurance company, which, after holding the bond for a year, sells it to a mutual fund. Which of these transactions occurs in the primary market and which in the secondary market? Does the Norwegian government get any proceeds from the sale between the insurance company and the mutual fund?The initial sale of Norwegian government bonds to the insurance company occurs on the primary market (new issues market). At that time the government obtains the proceeds from the sale. The sale of the bonds by the insurance company to the mutual fund constitutes a transaction on the secondary market (resale of securities or trading of previously-issued securities). The only funds being exchanged are purchase payments by the mutual fund. The Norwegian government as issuer has no further pecuniary interest in the securities.2. Some years ago, Japan’s four largest brokerage firms (Yamaichi Securities Co., Nomura Securities Co., Daiwa Securities Co., and Nikko Securities Co.) formally asked their government to lift bans that restrict their freedom to invest in stocks. One of those bans prevents a brokerage firm from trading for its own account (that is, buying and selling for itself rather than for clients) during certain times of the trading day. The other ban restricts a brokerage firm participating in more than 30% of the trading of any one stock within a month. Consider these restrictions in terms of the role of dealers in financial markets and the requirements for operational and price efficiency in a market. Do you think that lifting the restrictions would help the Tokyo Stock Exchange to be more efficient with regard to price and operations?Lifting restrictions may have mixed results for operating and price efficiency. Certainly, the current restrictions constitute frictions on the market, impediments that interfere with the supply of and demand for securities. Additional participants, trades and increased volume could lower operating costs and create price stability, were dealers sometimes willing to use their own capital to go against market trends in the manner that specialists must do in organized exchanges. But would securities be efficiently priced? Dealers, benefiting from inside information or superior knowledge, could easily front-run their customer accounts. Extensive trading in certain securities by dealers could signal price manipulation. In other words, these dealer actions could create new frictions so that security prices would not reflect all current information about future cash flows.3. The residential real estate market boasts many brokers but very few dealers. What explains this situation?Most dealers probably do not want to carry much real estate inventory. Such holdings can be expensive and illiquid. Real estate can take time to unwind. Each property is also unique and is therefore harder to analyze and sell these as publicly-held security. Real estate carries much price risk and sales do not occur rapidly and continuously. Dealers make money from bid-ask spreads.There has to be an expectation of high turnover if a dealer is to make a market in any asset. Otherwise he becomes an investor rather than a dealer.4. Some years ago, legislators in a state claimed that speculation on land was driving prices to too high a level. They proposed to pass a law that would require the buyer of any piece of land in the state to hold the land for at least three years before he or she could resell it.a.Analyze this proposal in terms of perfect markets and possible frictions that havebeen described in this chapter.b.If that proposal had passed, do you think land prices would have risen or fallen? a.The land holding proposal creates an artificial barrier or friction in the marketplace. Priceswould not reflect the continuous interaction of supply and demand. Nor would they necessarily reflect publicly known information about future cash flows.b.If anything, the result would be pent-up demands for certain properties, leading to artificiallyhigh prices.5. What is meant by the statement that “dealers offer both immediacy and price continuity to investors”?Stock market dealers help to offset temporary imbalances of buy and sell orders. By standing ready to buy and sell a financial asset they offer immediacy of trades to their customers. Dealers advertise bid-ask spreads. By willing to take the opposite side of a trade when there are no other orders, the dealer prevents the price from diverging materially from the price at which the last trade was consummated.6. In 1990, a trader on the Paris Bourse claimed to one of the authors of this book that “now, we are just like New York; everything is continuous.” Do you think that the Bourse’s change from a call market to a continuous market, which took place in the 1980s, could have improved either price or operational efficiency in that market enough to warrant this assertion?A call market batches its orders and fixes a price at which all orders are then transacted. In so doing a call market is probably operationally efficient. Moreover, at that point in time the call market may also be price efficient. A continuous market handles buy and sell orders throughout the entire trading period, usually several hours every business day. In that respect it may be less operationally efficient. And if order flows vary over the trading period prices may not be very stable. However each trade price is unique and presumably reflects the latest information publicly available. So over time the continuous market has the advantage of greater price efficiency. Moreover, given sufficient “depth, breadth and resiliency” the continuou s market may be better than a call market in both respects.7. If a security is highly liquid, explain whether it would be more advantageous to develop a trading system with continuous trading or call auction.If securities are highly liquid, it would be more advantageous to develop a continuous trading system. Continuous trading system permits trading at changing market determined prices throughout the day and is more appropriate for liquid securities. Call auctions system provides for fixed price at specific times during the day.8. Outline the problems associated with fixed brokerage commissions.Fixed brokerage commissions are another friction in the marketplace. They do not reflect the true costs of operations and hinder operational efficiency by not allowing for economies of scale and penalizing firms that are competitively efficient. As the American experience has shown, fixed commissions led institutional investors to take their business elsewhere, to the third market (off the exchange trades through non-member brokers) or to electronic network trading systems. Why are fixed brokerage commissions prevalent elsewhere? Sheer market positions of dominance or collaboration. In some parts of Europe, for example, banks run the exchanges and do the trading. There is no incentive to compete on price as long as they run the only game in town. But change is coming. With more institutional trading, globalization of securities markets and computer technology creating competitive pressures, it seems only a matter of time that other countries will follow the U.S. lead and adopt negotiated commissions. The United Kingdom and France have already done so.9. Indicate whether or not you agree with the following statement: “The minimum bid-offer spread on common stock is in terms of one-eighths.”Disagree. Before 1997, the minimum bid-offer spread was 1/8. Now it is one cent.10. Assume that UND stock normally has a bid–offer spread of three-eighths, or$0.375.What do you think would happen to that spread on a day when the stock market begins to fall very sharply? Explain your answer. Also, what would happen to the spread if the company announced that it was buying back 20% of its outstanding shares and would complete that repurchase within three months? Explain your view.As the stock price falls sharply, the bid-offer spread will increase to reflect greater uncertainty. Dealers as market maker would also step in which may result in narrowing the spread. Buying back announcement will generally boost the stock price and narrow the spread.11. Suppose the federal government imposed a tax of $0.10 on each stock-buying transaction. Would stock prices in general rise or fall on such news? Explain your answer. The imposition of $0.10 tax on stock buying transaction is a typical example of frictions in the market place; as such a friction will create inefficiency and put downward pressure on stock price.12. What are the reasons for the development of electronic bond trading?The combination of the increased risk and the decreased profitability of bond market making has induced the major market makers to de-emphasize this business in the allocation of capital. This retreat by traditional market making firms opened the door for electronic trading. Electronic trading in bonds has helped fill this developing vacuum and providing liquidity to the bond market.。
罗斯公司理财题库全集2
Chapter 14Efficient Capital Markets and Behavioral Challenges Multiple Choice Questions1. An efficient capital market is one in which:A. brokerage commissions are zero.B. taxes are irrelevant.C. securities always offer a positive rate of return to investors.D. security prices are guaranteed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to be fair.E. security prices reflect available information.2. The notion that actual capital markets, such as the NYSE, are fairly priced is called the:A. Efficient Markets Hypothesis (EMH).B. Law of One Price.C. Open Markets Theorem.D. Laissez-Faire Axiom.E. Monopoly Pricing Theorem.3. The hypothesis that market prices reflect all available information of every kind is called _____ form efficiency.A. openB. strongC. semistrongD. weakE. stable4. The hypothesis that market prices reflect all publicly available information is called _____ form efficiency.A. openB. strongC. semistrongD. weakE. stable5. The hypothesis that market prices reflect all historical information is called _____ form efficiency.A. openB. strongC. semistrongD. weakE. stable6. In an efficient market, the price of a security will:A. always rise immediately upon the release of new information with no further price adjustments related to that information.B. react to new information over a two-day period after which time no further price adjustments related to that information will occur.C. rise sharply when new information is first released and then decline to a new stable level by the following day.D. react immediately to new information with no further price adjustments related to that information.E. be slow to react for the first few hours after new information is released allowing time for that information to be reviewed and analyzed.7. If the financial markets are efficient, then investors should expect their investments in those markets to:A. earn extraordinary returns on a routine basis.B. generally have positive net present values.C. generally have zero net present values.D. produce arbitrage opportunities on a routine basis.E. produce negative returns on a routine basis.8. Which one of the following statements is correct concerning market efficiency?A. Real asset markets are more efficient than financial markets.B. If a market is efficient, arbitrage opportunities should be common.C. In an efficient market, some market participants will have an advantage over others.D. A firm will generally receive a fair price when it sells shares of stock.E. New information will gradually be reflected in a stock's price to avoid any sudden change in the price of the stock.9. According to the efficient market hypothesis, financial markets fluctuate daily because they:A. are inefficient.B. slowly react to new information.C. are continually reacting to new information.D. offer tremendous arbitrage opportunities.E. only reflect historical information.10. Insider trading does not offer any advantages if the financial markets are:A. weak form efficient.B. semiweak form efficient.C. semistrong form efficient.D. strong form efficient.E. inefficient.11. According to theory, studying historical prices in order to identify mispriced stocks will not work in markets that are _____ efficient.I. weak formII. semistrong formIII. strong formA. I onlyB. II onlyC. I and II onlyD. II and III onlyE. I, II, and III12. Which of the following tend to reinforce the argument that the financial markets are efficient?I. Information spreads rapidly in today's world.II. There is tremendous competition in the financial markets.III. Market prices continually fluctuate.IV. Market prices react suddenly to unexpected news announcements.A. I and III onlyB. II and IV onlyC. I, II, and III onlyD. II, III, and IV onlyE. I, II, III, and IV13. If you excel in analyzing the future outlook of firms, you would prefer that the financial markets be ____ form efficient so that you can have an advantage in the marketplace.A. weakB. semiweakC. semistrongD. strongE. perfect14. Your best friend works in the finance office of the Delta Corporation. You are aware that this friend trades Delta stock based on information he overhears in the office. You know that this information is not known to the general public. Your friend continually brags to you about the profits he earns trading Delta stock. Based on this information, you would tend to argue that the financial markets are at best _____ form efficient.A. weakB. semiweakC. semistrongD. strongE. perfect15. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission periodically charges individuals for insider trading and claims those individuals have made unfair profits. Based on this fact, you would tend to argue that the financial markets are at best _____ form efficient.A. weakB. semiweakC. semistrongD. strongE. perfect16. Individuals that continually monitor the financial markets seeking mispriced securities:A. tend to make substantial profits on a daily basis.B. tend to make the markets more efficient.C. are never able to find a security that is temporarily mispriced.D. are always quite successful using only well-known public information as their basis of evaluation.E. are always quite successful using only historical price information as their basis of evaluation.17. Efficient capital markets are financial markets:A. in which current market prices reflect available information.B. in which current market prices reflect the present value of securities.C. in which there is no excess profit from using available information.D. All of the above.E. None of the above.18. If the efficient market hypothesis holds, investors should expect:A. to earn only a normal return.B. to receive a fair price for their securities.C. to always be able to pick stocks that will outperform the market averages.D. Both A and B.E. Both B and C.19. Financial managers can create value through financing decisions that:A. reduce costs or increase subsidies.B. increase the product prices.C. create a new security.D. Both A and B.E. Both A and C.20. In an efficient market when a firm makes an announcement of a new product or product enhancement with superior technology providing positive NPV, the price of the stock will:A. rise gradually over the next few days.B. decline gradually over the next few days.C. rise on the same day to the new price.D. stay at the same price, with no net effect.E. drop on the same day to the new price.21. An investor discovers that for a certain group of stocks, large positive price changes are always followed by large negative price changes. This finding is a violation of the:A. moderate form of the efficient market hypothesis.B. semistrong form of the efficient market hypothesis.C. strong form of the efficient market hypothesis.D. weak form of the efficient market hypothesis.E. None of the above.22. Which of the following would be indicative of inefficient markets?A. Overreaction and reversionB. Delayed responseC. Immediate and accurate responseD. Both A and B.E. Both A and C.23. When the stock price follows a random walk, the price today is said to be equal to the prior period price plus the expected return for the period with any remaining difference to the actual return due to:A. a predictable amount based on the past prices.B. a component based on new information unrelated to past prices.C. the security's risk.D. the risk free rate.E. None of the above.24. Which form of the efficient market hypothesis implies that security prices reflect only information contained in past prices?A. Weak formB. Semistrong formC. Strong formD. Hard formE. Past form25. If the weak form of efficient markets holds, then:A. technical analysis is useless.B. stock prices reflect all information contained in past prices.C. stock prices follow a random walk.D. All of the above.E. None of the above.26. Under the concept of an efficient market, a random walk in stock prices means that:A. there is no driving force behind price changes.B. technical analysts can predict future price movements to earn excess returns.C. the unexplained portion of price change in one period is unrelated to the unexplained portion of price change in any other period.D. the unexplained portion of price change in one period that can not be explained by expected return can only be explained by the unexplained portion of price change in a prior period.E. None of the above.27. A semistrong form efficient market is distinct from a weak form efficient market by:A. incorporating only random movements in the price.B. incorporating all publicly available information in the price.C. incorporating inside information in the price.D. All of the above.E. None of the above.28. If a market is strong form efficient, it also implies that:A. semistrong form efficiency holds.B. weak form efficiency holds.C. one cannot earn abnormal returns with inside information.D. Both A and C.E. A, B and C.29. An investor discovers that predictions about weather patterns published years in advance and found in the Farmer's Almanac are amazingly accurate. In fact, these predictions enable the investor to predict the health of the farm economy and therefore certain security prices. This finding is a violation of the:A. moderate form of the efficient market hypothesis.B. semistrong form of the efficient market hypothesis.C. strong form of the efficient market hypothesis.D. weak form of the efficient market hypothesis.E. None of the above.30. A lawyer works for a firm that advises corporate firms planning to sue other corporations for antitrust damages. He finds that he can "beat the market" by short-selling the stock of the firm that will be sued. This finding is a violation of the:A. moderate form of the efficient market hypothesis.B. semistrong form of the efficient market hypothesis.C. strong form of the efficient market hypothesis.D. weak form of the efficient market hypothesis.E. None of the above.31. An investor discovers that stock prices change drastically as a result of certain events. This finding is a violation of the:A. moderate form of the efficient market hypothesis.B. semistrong form of the efficient market hypothesis.C. strong form of the efficient market hypothesis.D. weak form of the efficient market hypothesis.E. None of the above.32. The semistrong form of the efficient market hypothesis states that:A. all information is reflected in the price of securities.B. security prices reflect all publicly available information.C. future prices are predictable.D. Both A and C.E. None of the above.33. The market price of a stock moves or fluctuates daily. This fluctuation is:A. inconsistent with the semistrong efficient market hypothesis because prices should be stable.B. inconsistent with the weak form efficient market hypothesis because all past information should be priced in.C. consistent with the semistrong form of the efficient market hypothesis because as new information arrives daily prices will adjust to it.D. consistent with the strong form because prices are controlled by insiders.E. None of the above.34. An investor who picks a portfolio by throwing darts at the financial pages:A. believes that efficient markets will protect the portfolio from harm as all information is priced.B. believes that riskier portfolios earn the same as less risky portfolios.C. does so because stock prices do not matter; only cash flow generated matters.D. Both A and C.E. Both B and C.35. Suppose that firms with unexpectedly high earnings earn abnormally high returns for several months after the announcement. This would be evidence of:A. efficient markets in the weak form.B. inefficient markets in the weak form.C. efficient markets in the semistrong form.D. inefficient markets in the semistrong form.E. inefficient markets in the strong form.36. Which of the following is not true about serial correlation?A. It measures the correlation between the current return on a security and the current return on another security.B. It involves only one security.C. Positive serial correlation indicates a tendency for continuation.D. Negative serial correlation indicates a tendency toward reversal.E. Significant positive or negative serial correlation coefficients are indicative of market inefficiency in the weak form.37. Which of the following is true?A. A random walk for stock price changes is inconsistent with observed patterns in price changes.B. If the stock market follows a random walk, price changes should be highly correlated.C. If the stock market is weak form efficient, then stock prices follow a random walk.D. All of the above.E. Both B and C.38. Event studies attempt to measure:A. the influence of information released to the market on returns in days surrounding its announcement.B. if the market is at least semistrong form efficient.C. whether there is a significant reaction to public announcements.D. All of the above.E. None of the above.39. The abnormal return in an event study is described as:A. the return earned on the day of announcement for the stock.B. the excess return earned on the day of announcement for the stock.C. the total return earned for the investment holding period.D. All of the above.E. None of the above.40. Evidence on stock prices finds that the sudden death of a chief executive officer causes stock prices to fall and the sudden death of an active founding chief executive officer causes stock price to rise. This contrary evidence happens because:A. markets are inefficient and unsure of the real value of the events.B. death is inevitable and market prices are random.C. things simply happen.D. the value of the founding executive was a negative to the firm.E. None of the above.41. Studies of the performance of professionally managed mutual funds find that these funds:A. do not outperform a market index. Assuming mutual fund managers rely primarily on public information, this finding refutes the semistrong form of the efficient market hypothesis.B. do not outperform a market index. Assuming mutual fund managers rely primarily on public information, this finding supports the semistrong form of the efficient market hypothesis.C. outperform a market index. Assuming mutual fund managers rely primarily on public information, this finding refutes the semistrong form of the efficient market hypothesis.D. outperform a market index. Assuming mutual fund managers rely primarily on public information, this finding supports the semistrong form of the efficient market hypothesis.E. Both C and D.42. Which of the following statements is true?A. In efficient markets, a stock's price should change with the arrival of new information.B. Average stock returns are higher in January than other months.C. Studies by Fama and French and others find that returns of high book to market stocks are much higher than low book to market value stocks to be consistent with the efficient market hypothesis.D. All of the above.E. None of the above.43. Which of the following is true?A. Most empirical evidence is consistent with strong form efficiency.B. Most empirical evidence is inconsistent with weak form efficiency.C. Strong form market efficiency is not supported by the empirical evidence.D. Both A and C.E. Both B and C.44. In examining the issue of whether the choice of accounting methods affects stock prices, studies have found that:A. accounting depreciation methods can significantly affect stock prices.B. switching depreciation methods can significantly affect stock prices.C. accounting changes that increase accounting earnings also increases stock prices.D. accounting changes can affect stock prices if the company were either to withhold information or provide incorrect information.E. All of the above.45. Market efficiency says:A. prices may not reflect underlying value.B. a good financial manager can time stock sales.C. managers may profitablly speculate in foreign currency.D. managers cannot boost stock prices through creative accounting.E. None of the above.46. The abnormal returns for initial public offerings over longer time periods seem to call market efficiency into question because:A. the average returns at announcement are large and positive while the long-term results are much lower than the returns for seasoned equity offerings.B. the average returns at announcement are small and negative while the long-term results are much lower than the returns for seasoned equity offerings.C. the average returns at announcement are zero while the long-term results are much higher than the returns for seasoned equity offerings.D. the average returns at announcement are large and positive while the long-term results are much higher than the returns for seasoned equity offerings.E. the average returns at announcement are insignificant while the long-term results are much lower than the returns for seasoned equity offerings.47. An example of financially irrational behavior is:A. gambling in Las Vegas.B. when a firm announces an increase in earnings and the stock price enjoys three days of large abnormal returns.C. when a firm announces an increase in earnings and the stock price enjoys an immediate surge in value which is captured in one day.D. Both A and B.E. Both A and C.48. Ritter's study of Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) showed that the post offering stock performance was:A. less than the control group by about 2% in the five years following the IPO.B. incorrectly priced at issuance because over the next five years the abnormal returns were greater than zero on average.C. immaterial to the pricing of the IPO because future market performance is unknown at issuance.D. equal across IPOs, irrespective of risk or which year they were issued.E. All of the above.49. If the securities market is efficient, an investor need only throw darts at the stock pages to pick securities and be just as well off.A. This is true because there are no differences in risk and return.B. This is true because in an efficient stock market prices do not fluctuate.C. This is false because professional portfolio managers prefer to generate commissions by active trading.D. This is false because investors may not hold a desirable risk-return combination in their portfolio.E. This is false because the markets are controlled by the institutional investors.50. Financial managers must be cognizant of market efficiency because:A. manipulating earnings by accounting changes does not fool the market.B. timing security sales is futile because without private information the current price reflects all known information.C. there is limited price pressure from any large sale of stock depressing prices only momentarily before recovering to prior levels.D. All of the above.E. None of the above.51. Event studies have been used to examine:A. IPOs, SEOs, and other equity issuances.B. changes in earnings.C. mergers and acquisitions.D. most financial events.E. All of the above.52. If the market is weak form efficient:A. semistrong form efficiency holds.B. strong form efficiency must hold.C. semistrong form efficiency may hold.D. markets are not weak form efficient.E. None of the above.53. In order to create value from capital budgeting decisions, the firm is likely to:A. locate an unsatisfied demand for a particular product or service.B. create a barrier to make it more difficult for other firms to compete.C. produce products or services at a lower cost than the competition.D. A and C.E. A, B, and C.54. Valuable financing opportunities can be created by:A. fooling investors.B. reducing costs or increasing subsidies.C. the creation of a new security.D. A and B.E. A, B, and C.55. The following time period(s) is/are consistent with the bubble theory:A. the stock market crash of 1929.B. the stock market crash of 1972.C. the stock market crash of 1987.D. A and C.E. A, B, and C.56. In the five years after the offering, ___ underperform matched control groups.A. initial public offeringsB. seasoned equity offeringsC. bond offeringsD. A and BE. A, B, and C57. In the three years prior to a forced departure of management, stock prices, adjusted for market performance, on average will:A. decline about 20%.B. decline about 40%.C. decline about 60%.D. remain stable.E. increase about 20%.Essay Questions58. Define the three forms of market efficiency.59. Explain why it is that in an efficient market, investments have an expected NPV of zero.60. Do you think the lessons from capital market history will hold for each year in the future?That is, as an example, if you buy small stocks will your investment always outperformU.S. Treasury bonds?61. Suppose your cousin invests in the stock market and doubles her money in a single year while the market, on average, earned a return of only about 15%. Is your cousin's performance a violation of market efficiency?62. Why should a financial decision maker such as a corporate treasurer or CFO be concerned with market efficiency?Chapter 14 Efficient Capital Markets and Behavioral Challenges Answer KeyMultiple Choice Questions1. An efficient capital market is one in which:A. brokerage commissions are zero.B. taxes are irrelevant.C. securities always offer a positive rate of return to investors.D. security prices are guaranteed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to be fair.E. security prices reflect available information.Difficulty level: EasyTopic: EFFICIENT CAPITAL MARKETType: DEFINITIONS2. The notion that actual capital markets, such as the NYSE, are fairly priced is called the:A. Efficient Markets Hypothesis (EMH).B. Law of One Price.C. Open Markets Theorem.D. Laissez-Faire Axiom.E. Monopoly Pricing Theorem.Difficulty level: EasyTopic: EFFICIENT MARKETS HYPOTHESISType: DEFINITIONS3. The hypothesis that market prices reflect all available information of every kind is called _____ form efficiency.A. openB. strongC. semistrongD. weakE. stableDifficulty level: EasyTopic: STRONG FORM EFFICIENCYType: DEFINITIONS4. The hypothesis that market prices reflect all publicly available information is called _____ form efficiency.A. openB. strongC. semistrongD. weakE. stableDifficulty level: EasyTopic: SEMI STRONG FORM EFFICIENCYType: DEFINITIONS5. The hypothesis that market prices reflect all historical information is called _____ form efficiency.A. openB. strongC. semistrongD. weakE. stableDifficulty level: EasyTopic: WEAK FORM EFFICIENCYType: DEFINITIONS6. In an efficient market, the price of a security will:A. always rise immediately upon the release of new information with no further price adjustments related to that information.B. react to new information over a two-day period after which time no further price adjustments related to that information will occur.C. rise sharply when new information is first released and then decline to a new stable level by the following day.D. react immediately to new information with no further price adjustments related to that information.E. be slow to react for the first few hours after new information is released allowing time for that information to be reviewed and analyzed.Difficulty level: MediumTopic: MARKET EFFICIENCYType: CONCEPTS7. If the financial markets are efficient, then investors should expect their investments in those markets to:A. earn extraordinary returns on a routine basis.B. generally have positive net present values.C. generally have zero net present values.D. produce arbitrage opportunities on a routine basis.E. produce negative returns on a routine basis.Difficulty level: MediumTopic: MARKET EFFICIENCYType: CONCEPTS8. Which one of the following statements is correct concerning market efficiency?A. Real asset markets are more efficient than financial markets.B. If a market is efficient, arbitrage opportunities should be common.C. In an efficient market, some market participants will have an advantage over others.D. A firm will generally receive a fair price when it sells shares of stock.E. New information will gradually be reflected in a stock's price to avoid any sudden change in the price of the stock.Difficulty level: MediumTopic: MARKET EFFICIENCYType: CONCEPTS9. According to the efficient market hypothesis, financial markets fluctuate daily because they:A. are inefficient.B. slowly react to new information.C. are continually reacting to new information.D. offer tremendous arbitrage opportunities.E. only reflect historical information.Difficulty level: MediumTopic: MARKET EFFICIENCYType: CONCEPTS10. Insider trading does not offer any advantages if the financial markets are:A. weak form efficient.B. semiweak form efficient.C. semistrong form efficient.D. strong form efficient.E. inefficient.Difficulty level: EasyTopic: MARKET EFFICIENCYType: CONCEPTS11. According to theory, studying historical prices in order to identify mispriced stocks will not work in markets that are _____ efficient.I. weak formII. semistrong formIII. strong formA. I onlyB. II onlyC. I and II onlyD. II and III onlyE. I, II, and IIIDifficulty level: MediumTopic: MARKET EFFICIENCYType: CONCEPTS12. Which of the following tend to reinforce the argument that the financial markets are efficient?I. Information spreads rapidly in today's world.II. There is tremendous competition in the financial markets.III. Market prices continually fluctuate.IV. Market prices react suddenly to unexpected news announcements.A. I and III onlyB. II and IV onlyC. I, II, and III onlyD. II, III, and IV onlyE. I, II, III, and IVDifficulty level: MediumTopic: MARKET EFFICIENCYType: CONCEPTS13. If you excel in analyzing the future outlook of firms, you would prefer that the financial markets be ____ form efficient so that you can have an advantage in the marketplace.A. weakB. semiweakC. semistrongD. strongE. perfectDifficulty level: EasyTopic: MARKET EFFICIENCYType: CONCEPTS14. Your best friend works in the finance office of the Delta Corporation. You are aware that this friend trades Delta stock based on information he overhears in the office. You know that this information is not known to the general public. Your friend continually brags to you about the profits he earns trading Delta stock. Based on this information, you would tend to argue that the financial markets are at best _____ form efficient.A. weakB. semiweakC. semistrongD. strongE. perfectDifficulty level: MediumTopic: MARKET EFFICIENCYType: CONCEPTS15. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission periodically charges individuals for insider trading and claims those individuals have made unfair profits. Based on this fact, you would tend to argue that the financial markets are at best _____ form efficient.A. weakB. semiweakC. semistrongD. strongE. perfectDifficulty level: MediumTopic: MARKET EFFICIENCYType: CONCEPTS。
分析模式——可复用对象模型
编辑推荐《分析模式》是对逐渐兴起的模式文化的一个重要贡献。
它将模式进行分类，从不同领域阐释了深奥的对象建模技术。
这些领域中的模式可帮助你解决跨领域的挑战性建模问题。
在这本书中，你可以找到下一次业务对象模型的实质部分。
本书简介本书阐述的不仅仅是典型的方法学的工具和技术。
这本具有创新意义的书正好迎合了所有模式影印方面的爱好者。
本书主要着眼于面向对象分析和设计的最终结果，即模型本身。
他不仅将自己建模方面的丰富经验给大家共享，而且提供了一些模式的编目，这些模式出现在多个领域，如商贸、测量、财会和组织关系等领域中。
目录Foreword vForeword viiPreface xvChapter 1. introductionPart 1 Analysis PatternsChapter 2. AccountabilityChapter 3 Observations and MeasurementsChapter 4 Observations for Corporate FinanceChapter 5 Referring to ObjectsChapter 6 Inventory and AccountingChapter 7 Using the Accounting ModelsChapter 8 PlanningChapter 9 TradingChapter 10 Derivative ContractsChapter 11 Trading PackagesPart 2 Support PatternsChapter 12 Layered Architecture for Information SystemsChapter 13 Application FacadesChapter 14 Patterns for Type ModelChapter 15 Association PatternsChapter 16 AfterwordPart 3 AppendixAppendix A Techniques and NotationsAppendix B Table of PatternsIndex下载后 点击此处查看更多内容。
my_trading_plan我的交易计划
Table of Contents Chapter 1:Introduction 4How to define your trading “destination” 5What is a Successful Trader? 6Chapter 2: The Strategic Philosophy of Trading 8 Identifying High Probability Trades 9Risk-Reward 10The Trading System 10Chapter 3: Developing your Personal Profile 12 Personal Goals 13Trading capital and financial objectives 15Establishing your risk profile 17Personal Risk Profile questionnaire 18Identifying your Strengths and Weaknesses 19Attitude 20Imagining your worst trading nightmare 20Writing out your trading premise 21Example trading premise (21)Chapter 4: Developing an Effective Trading Strategy 22 Full or part time trading? 22Round-the-clock trading 23Trading Style 23Example of a Position Trade 22Example of a Day Trade 23Example of Scalping 23Example of Swing Trading 24Chapter 5: Trading System and Trading Rules 26 Fundamental Analysis 27The Balance Sheet (27)The current ratio 28The Operating Statement 29Price-Earnings ratio (P/E) 29How to estimate the future value of stock shares using P/E Multiple 29 Return on Investment (ROI) or Return on Equity (ROE) 30 Quarterly and Annual Reports 30Fundamentals for other types of investment 31Technical Analysis 31Charting 31Moving Averages 32Simple moving average (SMA) 32Trend Identification/Confirmation 34Support and Resistance Levels 35Moving Average Convergence Divergence – MACD 35On Balance Volume 36Bollinger Bands 36Relative Strength Index 37Divergence 37Selection Filters 38Sample Trade Selection 39The Importance of Paper Trading (41)Trading System, Trading Rules and the Trading Plan 42Example of Trading Rules 43Chapter 6: Establishing a Trading Schedule 45U.S. National Exchanges 45Regional U.S. Exchanges 46Canada 46Europe 46U.K. 47Japan 47Chapter 7: Setting up a Trading Journal 49The Trading Journal-your best friend 50Key Questions to ask yourself 50When to make Journal entries 51Example of a Trading Journal 52Chapter 8: Testing your Trading System 53Pros and Cons of Paper Trading 54Chapter 9: The Emotional Aspects of Trading 55Holistic Trading 56Characteristics of a Successful Trader 58Chapter 10: The Power of Objectivity 62Give and receive 64Chapter 11: Putting it all Together-a Sample Trading Plan 65 In Closing 71Chapter 1: IntroductionYou haven’t thought much about it other than you want to take a vacation. You grab the keys to your car and head out on the highway. Hours pass and you watch the scenery change from metropolitan landscape to bucolic greenery. You feel the tension leave your body. Darkness falls and you pull into a motel for the night. After getting settled in you room, you turn on the television, kick off your shoes and flop on the bed. You reach for the phone to call a friend to tell them about your trip.Your friend picks up the phone and hears the excitement in your voice. But then he asks a question that shocks you and you sit up straight in your bed. “Where are you headed”, your friend asks. This seemingly innocuous question hits you like a slap across the face. It’s hard to believe but you have no idea. You look around the room and realize that you haven’t packed any clothes. No tooth-brush….nothing. You suddenly feel disoriented and can’t believe what you have done. You feel so stupid that you blurt out, “the Keys”. You slowly replace the receiver while you friend is still talking on the other end. Are you in the Twilight Zone?Needless to say, this absurd scenario is highly unlikely because nobody would ever take a trip without planning first. You know, decide the destination, check the route, make advanced reservations and that sort of stuff. Nobody would just takeoff without planning.But that’s exactly what takes place with most new traders. No defined destination, no road map, no idea of how to get there; “there” meaning making money by trading. What are the chances of being successful in your journey if you don’t even know such basic things as where you are going? It is truly unbelievable how many traders bite the dust (it’s estimated that about 90% of all beginning traders are out of trading within several months) mainly because they lack the proper preparation. Apparently, to most new traders success appears as just a simple matter of choosing the proper direction of movement. That’s like believing that a band aide will cure any disease. Indeed, trading is a much more complicated undertaking and requires extensive preparation. If it were so easy to make money, everybody would be doing it. Being a successful trader is not a matter of luck or even skill, it is a matter of proper preparation.And that is what this book is all about.If you read this book and follow its advice, your chances of becoming a successful trader will be greatly improved.Why is that so?Because successful traders say so.None of the ideas put forth in this book are revolutionary or “leading edge”. What will be presented is a proven formula used by most professional traders. The methods are based upon the mentoring-guided training format that most professional trading companies and departments use to train their new traders. The reader will be led step-by-step through the same type of training program thatmost pros went through and use to this day. It’s not brain surgery or rocket science. But it’s one thing is to read about it and another to live it. That, dear reader is up to you.How to define your trading “destination”One of the first things you need to do when planning your journey to becoming a successful trader is to define what “successful” means. Does it mean becoming a millionaire? Does it mean you can make a living by becoming a trader and working out of your laptop and cell phone? Does it mean that you can provide an opportunity to earn extra income apart from your regular job? Does it mean you can live in an area you desire without the need of finding a “real job”?Yes, success means different things to different people but one thing in common with trading is that to stay in business as a trader, you have to win more than you lose. In other words, you must make a profit or eventually you will come to the realization that you are no match for the market. So, let’s take it for granted that making a profit is a major goal in trading.But that’s not enough. You need to be much more specific. A goal must be relevant and realistic. So first, you must identify why you want to trade before you can define what your picture of success will look like.For example, if you want to be independent and live where you want, you must first decide how much income you will need to lead the lifestyle you want. If you need $6,000 per month for living expenses, you can quickly see if your trading capital can provide you with that level of income. If you have trading capital of $100,000 (not including savings of at least 6 months living expenses), you would need to generate an annual return of 72% or 6% per month return on your trading.If you just want to make extra money for a vacation, home, or other material item, first decide how much that material item will cost in the future and use that as your goal. For example, if you want the down payment for a new home, you establish that amount and then look at what amount you have to invest. If you need to have a $50,000 down payment on that dream home and you plan to invest $10,000, if you can produce a 40% annual return (3.33% per month) you could accumulate the $50,000 in about 41/2 years discounted for inflation and not including taxes.If you just want to earn enough for that yearly vacation, find out how much it costs and figure out what sort of return on investment (ROI) you will need to get there. For example, if you want to travel to Peru and spend one month mountain climbing in the Andes, you estimate that it will cost about $7,000. If you have $20,000 to invest, a 40% annual (3.33% per month) ROI would return the amount you would need in about 12 months-not including taxes. Sounds simple, doesn’t it! Asalways, however, the devil is in the details. But to have a realistic goal, you first need to accurately describe your goals….your destination.A trader must also develop a clearly defined process to identify what is feasible and desirable for each individual trader. As most traders vary in their levels of knowledge, wealth, temperament and risk tolerance, developing a trading plan is a customized affair. However, once developed it must be followed. Before preparing for a flight, all pilots-regardless of experience, go through a checklist to make sure that everything is set up properly before embarking on a flight. It’s just plain common sense and in this book you will learn how to develop your checklist that will help insure that you reach your intended destination.What is a Successful Trader?“Success means having the courage, the determination, and the will to become the person you believe you were meant to be”- George SheenanThe Caribbean water is crystal clear and inviting as you sail on toward Tortola. Your cell phone rings and it’s your broker in New York. You listen intently and then say “sell and transfer the funds to my commodities account”. You disconnect and do a feeble fist pump and mutter, “cha ching”. You are in the waiting area at JFK. Your flight to Hawaii leaves in an hour. As you don’t want to be disturbed, you re-check today’s positions and stops and close the laptop. You’re taking your family on a winter escape to paradise. No clients to worry about. No office politics. Just you and your laptop have made it all possible. You look at the Armani crowd and remember what it was like before you were able to work in your jogging suit. “No risk….no reward”, you say to yourself.You are up in your “command center” as you and your spouse jokingly call it. You hear your children and husband getting the kids ready for school. He lives the buttoned down life and you are still in your robe. You’ve been up before the markets open and are in the midst of planning today’s trades. Yesterday wasn’t a fun experience; you didn’t make your daily goal and your win-loss was upside down. You try not to think about it prefer to focus on setting up for today’s trading. You come down from the command center to say goodbye to hubby and the kids; your mind is still focused on the three trades you plan to make as soon as the entry points presents themselves. Your husband starts to say something and you hold up your hand to stop him. “Don’t say a god damned thing, you know the rules.” He smiles and herds the kids to the car. With coffee in hand, you bless the skills you have acquired but curse the loneliness of the isolation. But there is no other way you have the possibility to make the kind of money you can earn by trading and your husband makes enough to pay the bills.But both you and your husband have a dream of moving out of the city and out of the rat race. You both want a better home and are able to send your kids to the best schools possible. As h withholding and social security taxes are sucked right out of your husband’s paycheck, accumulating wealth is almost impossible. but becoming a successful trader may be the only way to reach those dreams and ambitions. Up until now, you have been able to actually make fairly steady profits in your trading accounts and you feel that after three years of full time day trading , you seem to have what it takes to make a go of it. But the pressure and isolation can become intense. Which one of these scenarios is a more realistic picture of a “successful trader”?Success is defined by the achievement of pre-established goals. The key to becoming a successful trader is identifying, quantifying, strategizing, implementing, tracking, analyzing, learning andgrowing as a conscious person. You see, there is no such thing as “easy money”. Let’s get this upfront right now, trading is not easy and not for just anybody.How many people do you know who have an idea of what they want out of life? How many people do you know who understand what makes them happy and what fulfils their needs? Probably not many and this is where becoming a successful trader begins…..understanding yourself. You define what success means to you. If you don’t know what that is, how can you reach it? In this book, we will devote a lot of discussion to help you define yourself, your goals and how you plan to reach them. Indeed, this process lies at the heart of building a trading plan for success.Chapter 2: The Strategic Philosophy of TradingThere are two fundamental and interconnected strategies in becoming a successful trader: 1) A trader learns how to identify high probability trades with regularity and cut losses immediately; 2) a successful trader has more winning trades with more profits than losing trades. That’s it folks!For example, if you make 20 trades and win 60% and the winners have an average gain of 10% and losing trades have an average loss of 3%, you will have a net overall gain of about 7% It is the combination of win-loss ratio and the average differential between profitable and losing trades that determines success…over time.Trading is not about hitting home runs but hitting for average.Traders develop a trading system which will provide a higher than chance win-loss ratio and try to make sure that profits have higher return on investment (ROI) than losing trades. In theory, even a less than chance ratio can still provide for profitable trading if there is a significant difference in profitable versus losing trades.Typically, successful trader will develop trading system that will provide at least a 65% win-loss ratio. Some even go as high as 75%. But the rule of maintaining higher profit margins than losing margins is key. If you win more trades but have higher overall loses, the win-loss ratio means nothing. So, to become a profitable trader, try to maintain a higher win-loss ratio and a higher overall percentage profit margin over losing trade margins. But being a profitable trader may not mean the same thing as what you define as a “successful trader”. That is defined by your goals. Once a trader develops a proven system, it then becomes a matter of discipline in following the established rules and procedures of the trading system in a totally consistent manner and it then becomes a matter of the number of trades and not deviating from the trading system. Sounds simple, right? Needless to say, the devil is in the details.Once a viable trading system has been defined, tested and proven, success is mainly a matter of discipline and a mechanical approach to implementing the trading system. But herein lays the weakness of most trading systems…..the trader. All kinds of psychological factors such as fear of losing, fear of being wrong, fear of losing precious resources and many other human emotions can throw the trader off the defined track and cause the trader to deviate from the trading system.You will see as we progress through the book that successful trading is a combination of developing mechanical systems based upon fundamental and technical indicators and the most difficult skills of all: self control, patience and ego dominance.You see, it is the human elements of emotions, expectations and subconscious programming that make or break most traders. You can read all the books there are on the subject of trading but real time emotions are the greatest challenge to a trader.All of us develop our own particular baggage and much of it we are not fully aware until confronted. Trading, with its pressure points of fear and greed, forces that confrontation with ourselves. In fact, most successful traders will tell you that it’s the “headwork” that makes the difference in winning over time.An essential part of the philosophy of trading is the mental preparation needed to confront our weaknesses. In fact, many call this part of proper preparation as the Zen of Trading.In the book, we will discuss how to develop proper mental preparation and creating the mental discipline to confront our fears associated with losing and self doubt. In fact, there is currently only one program designed to train traders in the techniques of maintaining the proper mental mindset for trading and that is The Disciplined Trader Intensive Program ().Identifying High Probability TradesCentral to successful trading is the technical skill of identifying high probability trades. What we mean by “high probability” is a trade that has a higher than chance probability of being a winner. We are not talking about “hitting the home run” but hitting for average. If your trading objective is to make at least 9% on each trade, then you are willing to get out of the trade at that point. Often times, even a fairly conservative trading strategy can consistently yield such returns. Using a trading strategy such as writing covered calls or using vertical spreads can produce such results. As mentioned, trading is not about the big winners but the small consistent winners that add up over time to become very impressive annualized returns. For example, if you use a strategy that produces a 7% monthly net return, that translates into an annual return of 84%! Little frequent victories win the war.It is important to mention that essential to the success of this strategy is the aggressive and consistent timely exit of losing trades. Conservative stops are always set and never tampered with unless locking-in profits. It is the ability to accept defeat immediately and without second thoughts that is essential (your ego doesn’t like to lose). Once a position has been entered, the next thought should be “cut any losses immediately and don’t look back”.Traders understand that losing is part of the trading reality. In other words, trading is no place for perfectionists because no trader will be a winner all of the time. As a matter of fact, just winning a majority of the time is the goal!The mechanics of learning how to identify high probability trades begins with deciding you’re your goals are and what are the best investment vehicles to trade. Each type of investment has its own advantages and it depends largely on the trader’s knowledge and preferences. However, in most cases the more flexible the investment, the better. For example, options allow for numerous strategies and the ability to hedge risk; however, options require a lot more education normally not needed in the more traditional types of investments.A good trading vehicle should have enough volatility and liquidity to make for active trading in a variety of strategies. That being said, some strategies call for little volatility but whatever trading vehicle you choose, you should make yourself an expert on what you choose. Not only, is it incumbent upon a trader to become an expert on what he or she trades but also how it trades. That is to say, a trader needs to become not just an expert on the technical and fundamental aspects of an investment but also how it acts over time. How does one go about that process of deep familiarity? Risk and RewardThe optimum trade offers low risk and high reward. Unfortunately, not many trades become optimum trades. In fact, most types of investments can be measured as far as its risk by comparing its price performance over time with that of the average price of the market in which it trades. For example, stocks have a parameter that measures individual stock correlation with that of the index. This is referred to as Beta. A beta of 1 means a stock has about as much variation in price as does the market it trades in. A stock with a beta of 1.25 means that the stock has 25% more variation (risk) than the market it trades in.If a trader is hunting for large gains, high beta stocks would most logically bring higher rewards because of the risk premium. If you are a trader who doesn’t like much risk, you will need to have a strategy that will provide many low profit wins that will add up to an attractive sum over time. If you are a trader with a higher risk tolerance, you may look for trades with larger risk but offer higher rewards. Normally, this means a lower win-loss ratio than that of a risk adverse trader.But measuring risk can be itself risky. There are times when a normally low risk stock or investment can become very volatile. As a result of this fact, there is some controversy about using measures of risk as measured by the Normal Distribution of data. A fundamental event such as the development of new technology, an industry in crisis or other macro events can send the statistical relevance of Normal distribution out the window. For example, a certain event may “normally” move out two standard deviations only 1% of the time. But in many stocks, it is often seen that large price movements can happen much more often than predicted by Normal Distributions of data. As a result, most traders understand that all trades have risk and take measures accordingly. I know that you may have a hard time understanding what I just said, but this is a very important reality when talking about of measurement risks and what might be considered as more or less risky.The Trading SystemDeveloping a trading system is the central core of trading. A trading system is a set of procedures and rules designed to provide a specific recipe for trading. Some people like to call it a trading methodology but in reality it is a set of clearly defined rules and procedures for trading. It is a customized trading paradigm. The end result is to create a system that if implemented consistently on every trade will result in a higher than chance win-loss ratio.It doesn’t mean that the trading system is set in stone. On the contrary, a trading system should be in constant evolution with the spirit of reaching for perfection. But because of the “chaos factor” of the effect of infinite permutations of variables, perfection is not possible. As many in the trading field like to say: “there is no Holy Grail in trading system.The trading system is made up of fundamental and technical analysis, money management, and all procedures that take the trader-step by step- from selection process to closing out the trade and journalizing entry. Additionally, the trading plan is written out and can be used as a checklist for each trade. Specific profit and loss targets are pre-established and violation of any parts of the trading protocol is heresy.The trading plan is the formalized description of exactly how the trading process is to be implemented by the trader. The implication is that if the trading system is followed to the letter, the trader’s goals will have a high probability of being realized.As the market is loaded with chaos factors (the unexpected), few trades go exactly as planned. But this fact is an important driver in the continuing learning and tweaking process. An important part of the trading system is to do a “postmortem” on every trade. This is done by way of a Trading Journal and we will cover this important part of the trading system later in the book.Once a system has been developed and tested over time by the use of paper trading, a trader develops a sense of the reliability of the system and builds the necessary confidence needed to develop the “faith in the system” and formulate trading into more or less a mechanical event.In a later chapter, we will go into more detail about developing a trading system but suffice it to say that by now you can see that it takes time and study to become a trader. But traders can make a lot of money and live a lifestyle few can imagine. Did think it would be easy? Trading is not easy money. It is very difficult money and not a profession for most people. Looks may be deceiving and this is indeed the case with the image of being a trader.In summary, the underlying philosophy of trading is to design a trading system which can provide a higher than chance win-loss ratio together with a strict set of trading rules that will allow the trader to trade mechanically and divorce-as much as possible-trading from human emotions.Chapter 3: Developing your Personal Profile“To live is to choose. But to choose, you must know who you are and what you stand for, where you want to go, and why you want to get there” AnonymousWho are you? What are your needs? Why do you trade? All of these questions and more are just a prelude to developing your daily trading objectives. But a very important concern needs to be addressed: can we be objective about ourselves? Few of us can completely strip away the façade we have created for ourselves over time. Often, many of the basic personal characteristics and preferences we have may have been the result of subconscious processes.As part of process of developing a trading plan, we must define our goals; what really motives us. However, to get the most accurate results, we must do the best job we can to honestly examine ourselves. As a trader’s career unfolds, we learn much more about whom we actually are and this helps to separate our self image from who we really are. Sometimes, there is a divergence between the two. This is one of the intangible benefits of interacting with the crucible of trading. Winning and losing is a daily event in trading and both of those events can be very telling about our attitudes about our lives in general.If you are an independent trader, you do most of your trading in isolation. You have to be your own boss and employee at the same time. Knowing how to “manage yourself” and how to keep motivated and disciplined is a much under-estimated required skill a trader needs to develop. The more you analyze yourself, the better.The isolation can be dangerous in that we all have the tendency to agree with ourselves and we can miss opportunities to grow and improve. Indeed, trading is all about constant learning and evolution. Evaluation is so important to keeping things tuned up that traders analyze every trade to help determine how well the system is anticipating the proper direction and movement of the investment. To accomplish this task, traders keep a Trading Journal.After each trade, the trader analyzes and records specific information about the trade and the mindset of the trader. Not only does the trader learn about the effectiveness of the trade but also the trader learns more about themselves and how they react in certain situations. This regular selfappraisal helps to refine the knowledge of ourselves which becomes an invaluable tool not only in trading but also for daily living.But, to get things started in the process of self-evaluation, we ask a series of questions to help us focus on answering some important questions. Try not to side step this process as our egos don’t like to see too much sunlight. The tendency is to pass this part off as “touchy-feely” but it is an important part of the process.Many people get into trading for the wrong reasons and the sooner that can be made obvious, the better for the aspiring trader. For instance, some might be trying to create a job for themselves when they are really afraid of the rejection that can be encountered in the job seeking process. If an ego is that fragile, it will never hold up during the trying process of trading with money on the line. Personal GoalsTry to be as honest as possible as you answer these questions. Moreover, it might be a good idea to have somebody who knows you well to participate in the questionnaire in an attempt to keep the answers as objective as possible.1.1a What are your professional goals today? (Not limited to trading)1.1b Why are you trading?1.1c What are your trading goals?1.1d Where do you want to be in your professional life five years from now? (Not limited totrading)1.2a What do you see as your greatest strengths as a trader?1.2b What strengths do you have that you can make even better and how can you do that as quicklyas possible?1.2c What are your most detrimental weaknesses as a trader?1.2d How can you improve these weaknesses?1.2e What do you see as the greatest threat to your success as a Trader?1.2f How can you eliminate or best handle this threat?1.2g Are you enchanted by the image of being a trader?1.2h What would you tell people when they ask you what you do for a living?1.2i How would your trading activities fit into your life?1.2j How much time can you commit to trading?1.3a What are your personal goals for the next 18 months?。
国际贸易实务双语教程课后题答案
KeyChapter1I. Answer my questions1. International trade is business whose activities involve the crossing of national borders. It includes not only international trade and foreign manufacturing but also encompasses the growing services industry in areas such as transportation, tourism, banking, advertising, construction, retailing, wholesaling, and mass communications. It includes all business transactions that involve two or more countries. Such business relationship may be private or governmental.2. Sales expansion, resource acquisition and diversification of sales and supplies.3. To gain profit.4. To seej out foreign markets and procurement.5. There are four major forms which are the following:Merchandise exports and Imports, Service Exports and Imports, Investment and Multinational Enterprise.6. It is the account which is a summary statement of the flow of all international economic and financial transactions between one nation (eg.the United States ) and the rest of the world over some period of time, usually one year.7. Merchandise Exporting and Importing.8. Yes. There are great differences between them.1) direct investment takes place when control follows the investment. It usually means high commitment of capital, personnel, and technology abroad. It aims at gaining of foreign resources and foreign markets. Direct investment may often get higher foreign sales than exporting. And sometimes it involves two or more parties.2) While portfolio investments are not under control. And they are used primarilyfor financial purposes. Treasures of companies, for example, routinely more funds from one country to another to get a higher yield on short term investments.9. MNE is the abbreviation of the multinational enterprise. Its synonyms are NNC (the multinational corporation) and TNC (transnational corporation).10. Examples are travel, transport, fee, royalties, dividends and interest.11. The choice of forms is influenced by the objective being pursued and the environments in which the company must operate.12. It is limited by the number of people interested in a firm’s products and services and by customers’ capacity to make purchase.13. This is because at an early stage of international involvement these operations usually take the least commitme nt and least risk of a firm’s resources.14. Royalties means the payment for use of assets from abroad, such as for trademarks patens, copyrights, or other expertise under contract known as licencing agreements.Royalties are also paid franchising.15. It is a way of doing business in which one party (the franchiser) the use of a trademark that is an essential asset for the franchisers’ business.II Match each one on the left with its correct meaning on the right1. J2.A3.E4.B5.C6.D7.I8.G9.F 10.HIII Translate the following terms and phrases into Chinese1 购买力11 经济复苏；恢复2 潜在销售量12 经济衰退3 加价，涨价13 间接投资4 国内市场14 有形货物5 制成品15 有形进出口6 边际利润16 收入及支出；岁入及岁出7 市场占有率17 超额能力8 贸易歧视18 贸易中间人（商）；经纪人9 时机选择19 全部包建的工程承包方式10 经销周期20 许可证协定IV Translate the following into English1. Trade is often the ‘engine’ of growt h. However oversimplified this metaphormay be, it does serve to underline the importance of foreign trade in the process of growth. A healthy expansion of exports may not always be sufficient condition for rapid and sustained growth, but a strong positive association between the two is clearly undeniable. Trade expansion contributes to economic growth in many ways. Among them are the benefits of specialization; the favorable effects of international competition on domestic economic efficiency; the increased capacity to pay for the imports required in development and more generally the stimulus to investment.2. International trade is the exchange of goods and services produced in one country for goods and services produced in another country. In addition to visible trade, which involves the import and export of goods and merchandise, there is also invisible trade, which involves the exchange of services between nations. Nations such as Greece and Norway have large maritime fleets and provide transportation service. This is a kind of invisible trade. Invisible trade can be as important to some nations as the export of raw materials or commodities is to others. In both cases, the nations earn the money to buy necessities.3. There exist different ways of conducting international business. Exclusive sale means the seller gives the overseas client the exclusive right of selling a particular product in a designated area within a specified period of time. In this kind of business transaction, the product is bought by the exclusive seller and therefore he should sell the product by himself, assuming sole responsibilities for his profit and loss. Exclusive sale is different from agency where only commission is involved. And difference exists between general contract and exclusive sales because the exclusive seller enjoys exclusive right in a particular area.4. There is no country in the world that can produce all the products it needs.Thus countries join in international division of labor for effective production and reproduction. Sometimes a country can buy goods and services from abroad on a barter basis. Barter means doing business by exchanging goods of one sort for goods of another sort without using money. Barter trade itself is not enough to meat a country’s imp ort needs. But as a form of international trade, it is still attractive in developing countries where foreign exchange is in short supply and inflow of foreign funds is far from sufficient to meet their obligations in external trade.I. Answer the following questions(Omited)II. Filling the blanks with the suitable words in the text:1.meeting/satisfying;2.agent, foreign/overseas;mission;4.own;5.setting;6.patent;7.profits;8.outlets;9.joint, venture; 10.subsidiaryIII.Translate the followings into English1). Economic activity began with the cavemen, who was economicallyself-sufficient. He did his own hunting, found his own shelter, and provided for his own needs. As primitive populations grew and developed, the principle of division of labor evolved. One person was more able to perform some activity than another, and therefore each person concentrated on what he did best. While one hunted, another fished. The hunter then traded his surplus to the fisherman, and each benefited from the variety of diet.In today’s complex economic world, neither individuals nor nations areself-sufficient nations are self-sufficient. Nations have utilized different economic resources; people have developed different skills. This is the foundation of international trade and economic activities.Foreign trade, the exchange of goods between nations, takes place for many reasons. The first, as mentioned above, is that no nation has all of the commodities than it needs. Raw materials are scattered around the world. Large deposits of copper are mined in Peru and Zaire, diamonds are mined in South Africa, and petroleum is recovered in Middle East. Countries that do not have these resources within their own boundaries must buy from countries that export them.Foreign trade also occurs because a country often does not have enough of a particular item to meet its needs. Although the United States is a major producer of sugar, it consumes more than it can produce internally and thus must import sugar. Third, one nation can sell some items at a lower cost than other countries. Japanhas been able to export large quantities of radios and television sets because it can produce them more efficiently than other countries. It is cheaper for the United States to buy these from Japan than to produce them domestically.Finally, foreign trade takes place because of innovation or style. Even though the United States produces more automobiles than any other country, it still imports large quantities of autos from Germany, Japan and Sweden, primarily because there is a market for them in the United States.2). The different kinds of trade nations engaged in are varied and complex, a mixture of visible and invisible trade. Most nations are more dependent on exports than on any other activity. The earnings from exports pay for the imports that they need and want. A nation’s balance of payment is a record of these complex transactions. By reflecting all of these transactions in monetary terms , a nation is able to combine the income it receives, for example, from exports, tourists expenditures, and immigrant remittances. This combined incomes is then spent on such items as manufactured goods from other countries, travel for its citizens to other countries, and the hiring of construction engineers.I. Translate the followings from Chinese into English:1 terms of payment2 written form of contract3 execution of the contract4 sales contract5 purchase confirmation6 terms of transaction7 trading partners 8 the setting up of a contract9 trade agreement 10 consignment contract11 the contract proper 12 extension of the contract13 the contracting parties 14 special clause15 general terms and conditionsII. Answer the following questions in English:1 A contract is an agreement which sets forth bind obligations of the relevant parties. And any part that fails to fulfill his contractual obligations may be sued and forced to make compensation.2 There are two parties of business contract negotiations: oral and written. The former refers to direct discussions abroad; written negotiations often begin with enquiries made by the buyers.3 A written contract is generally prepared and signed as the proof of the agreement and as the basis for its execution. A sales or purchase confirmation is less detailed than a contract, covering only the essential terms of the transaction. It is usually used for smaller deals or between familiar trade partners.4 The setting up of a contract is similar to that of a trade agreement or any othertype of formal agreements. It generally contains: 1) the title. The type of the contract is indicated in the title; 2) the contract proper. It is the main part of a contract; 3) the signature of the contracting parties indicating their status as the seller or the buyer; 4) the stipulations on the back of the contract and are equally binding upon the contracting parties.5 It generally contains the time of shipment, the mode of payment described in addition to an exact description of the goods including the quantity, quality, specifications, packing methods, insurance, commodity inspection, claims, arbitration and force majeure, etc.III. Translate the following into Chinese:合同是在双方达成协议的基础上制定的，而协议又是双方进行商务谈判的结果。
国际金融英文版试题chapter51
INTERNATIONAL FINANCEAssignment Problems (5) Name: Student#:I. Choose the correct answer for the following questions (only correct answer) (3 credits for each question, total credits 3 x 20 = 60)1. When the supply of and demand for a foreign exchange in the foreign exchange market are exactly the same, the exchange rate is the __________.A. real exchange rateB. effective exchange rateC. equilibrium exchange rateD. cross exchange rate2. An increase in the demand for French goods and services will __________.A. induce a rightward shift in the demand for euroB. induce a leftward shift in the demand for euroC. result in a rightward movement along the demand curve for euroD. result in a leftward movement along the demand curve for euro3. If U.S. dem and for Japanese goods increases and Japan’s demand for U.S. products also rises at the same time, which of the following can you conclude in this situation?A. The U.S. dollar will appreciate against the yen.B. The U.S. dollar will depreciate against the yen.C. The U.S. dollar will not change relative to the yen.D. The U.S. dollar may appreciate, depreciate, or remain unchanged against theyen.4. If the price of a pair of Nike sneakers costs $85 in U.S, and the price of the same sneakers is €80 in Pari s, the spot rate is $1.35 per euro, the euro __________.A. is correctly valued according to PPPB. is correctly valued according to relative PPPC. is undervalued according to PPPD. is overvalued according to PPP5. If the expected exchange rate E (SB/A) according to the relative purchasing power parity is lower than the spot exchange rate (SB/A), we may conclude that __________.A. country B is expected to run huge BOP surplus with country AB. country A’s interest rate is going to be lower than that of country B’sC. the expected inflation rate in country A is higher than the expected inflation rate in country BD. the expected inflation rate in country A is lower than the expected inflation rate in country B6. Assume that PPP holds in the long run. If the price of a tradable good is $20 in the U.S. and 100 pesos in Mexico; and the exchange rate is 7 pesos/$ right now, which of the following changes might we expect in the future?A. an increase in the price of the good in the U.SB. a decrease in the price of the good in MexicoC. an appreciation of the peso in nominal termsD. a depreciation of the peso in nominal terms7. Which basket of goods would be most likely to exhibit absolute purchasing power parity?A. Highly tradable commodities, such as wheatB. The goods in the Consumer Price indexC. Specialized luxury goods, which are subject to different tax rates across countriesD. Locally produced goods, such as transportation services, which are not easily traded8. The absolute purchasing power parity says that the exchange rate between the two currencies should be determined by the __________ .A. relative inflation rate of the two currenciesB. relative price level of the two countriesC. relative interest rate of the two currenciesD. relative money supply of the two countries9. According to the relative PPP, if country A’s inflation rate is higher than country B’s inflation rate by 3%, __________.A. country A’s currency should depreciate against country B’s currency by 3%B. country A’s currency should appreciate against country B’s currency by 3%C. it is hard to say whether country A’s currency should appreciate or depreciate against country B’s currency. The exchange rate is influenced by many factorsD. none of the above is true10. If the law of one price holds for a particular good, we may conclude that __________.A. there is no trade barriers for the good among the different nationsB. the price of the good is the same ignoring the other expensesC. arbitrage for the good does not existD. all of the above are true11. An investor borrows money in one market, sells the borrowed money on the spot market, invests the proceeds of the sale inanother place and simultaneously buys back the borrowed currency on the forward market. This is called __________.A. uncovered interest arbitrageB. covered interest arbitrageC. triangular arbitrageD. spatial arbitrage12. Real return equalization across countries on similar financial instruments is called __________.A. interest rate parityB. uncovered interest parityC. forward parityD. real interest parity13. In which of the following situations would a speculator wish to sell foreign currency on the forward market?14. According to IRP, if the interest rate in country A is higher than that in country B, the forward exchange rate, defined as F1A/B is expected to be __________.A. lower than the spot rate S0A/BB. the same as the spot rate S0A/BC. higher than the spot rate S0A/BD. necessary the same as the future spot rate S1A/B15. For arbitrage opportunities to be practicable, __________.A. arbitragers must have instant access to quotesB. arbitragers must have instant access to executionsC. arbitragers must be able to execute the transactions without an initial sum of money relying on their bank’s credit standingD. All of the above must be true.16. The __________ states that the forward exchange rate quoted at time 0 for delivery at time t is equal to what the spot rate is expected to be at time t.A. interest rate parityB. uncovered interest parityC. forward parityD. real interest parity17. Assume expected value of the U.S. dollar in the future is lower than that now compared to the value of the Japanese yen. The U.S. inflation rate must be higher than Japan’s inflation rate according to __________.A. relative PPPB. Fisher equationC. International Fisher relationD. IRP18. According to covered interest arbitrage if an investor purchases a five-year U.S. bond that has an annual interest rateof 5% rather than a comparable British bond that has an annual interest rate of 6%, then the investor must be expecting the __________ to __________ at a rate at least of 1% per year over the next 5 years.A. British pound; appreciateB. British pound; revalueC. U.S. dollar; appreciateD. U.S. dollar; depreciate19. Covered interest arbitrage moves the market __________ equilibrium because __________.A. toward; investors are now more willing to invest in risky securitiesB. toward; purchasing a currency on the spot market and selling in the forward market narrows the differential between the twoC. away from; purchasing a currency on the spot market and selling in the forward market increases the differential between the twoD. away from; demand for the stronger currency forces up the interest rates on the weaker security20. If the forward exchange rate is an unbiased predictor of the expected future spot rate, which of the following is NOT true?A. The future spot rate will actually be equal to what the forward rate predictsB. The forward premium or discount reflects the expected change in the spot exchange rate.C. Speculative activity ensures that the forward rate does not diverge too far from the market’s consensus expectation.D. All of the above are true.II. Problems (40 credits)1. The Argentine peso was fixed through a currency board at Ps1.00/$ throughout the 1990s. In January 2019 the Argentine peso was floated. On January 29, 2019, it was trading at Ps3.20/$. During that one year period Argentina’s inflation rate was 20% on an annualized basis. Inflation in the United States during that same period was2.2% annualized. (10 credits)a. What should have been the exchange rate in January 2019 if purchasing power parity held?b. By what percentage was the Argentine peso undervalued on an annualized basis?2. Assume that the interest rate paid by an American borrower on a ten-year foreign bond is 10% if the bond is sold in Denmark and 7% if the bond is sold in the Netherland. Will the expectedinflation rate in the Netherlands likely be higher than the expected inflation rate in Denmark? Will the Danish kroner be expected to increase in value against the Dutch guilder? Explain your answer. (5 credits)3. Suppose S = $1.25/₤and the 1-year forward rate is F = $1.20/₤. The real interest rate on a riskless government security is 2 percent in both England and the United States. The U.S. inflation rate is 5 percent. (5 credits)a. What is England’s nominal required rate of return on riskless government securities?b. What is England’s inflation rate if the equilibrium relationships hold?4. Akira Numata, a foreign exchange trader at Credit Suisse (Tokyo), is exploring covered interest arbitrage possibilities. He wants to invest $5,000,000 or its yen equivalent, in a covered interest arbitrage between U.S. dollars and Japanese yen. He faced the following exchange rate and interest rate quotes: (12 credits)5. On a particular day, the spot rate between Czech koruna (CKR) and the U.S. dollar is CKR30.35/$, while the interest rate ona one-year financial instrument in Czech is7.5% and 3.5% in U.S. (8 credits)a. What is your expected spot exchange rate a year later?b. You’re concerned your investment in the Czech Republic because of the economic uncertainty in that country. When you expect the future value of the koruna, you require a risk premium of 2%. What is the expected future spot rate supposed to be?Answers to Assignment Problems (5)Part II1. a. inflation differential (20% -2.2%) = 17.8%U.S. should have appreciated by 17.8%Implied exchange rate 1(1 + 17.8%) = Ps1.178/$b. (1.178 – 3.2 ) / 3.2 = -63.19%2. a. According to international Fisher equation: (1 + id) / (1 + if) = (1 + E[πd]) / (1 + E[πf])id: interest rate in Denmarkif: interest rate in Netherlandπd: Danish inflation rateπf Dutch inflation rateSince (1 + id) / (1 + if) = (1 +10%)/(1 + 7%) > 0So, (1 + E[πd]) / (1 + E[πf]) >0, which means the expected inflation rate in Denmark would be greater than that in Netherland.b. If Danish inflation is higher than Dutch inflation, Danish kroner will be expected to decrease in value against the Dutch guilder. (relative PPP theory)第 11 页。
国际商务PPTChapter14
Strategy, Production, and Logistics
Two other objectives are important for international companies: 1) Production and logistics functions must be able to accommodate demands for local responsiveness. 2) Production and logistics must be able to respond quickly to shifts in customer demand.
14-4
Operations: The Firm As A Value Chain
Figure 11.4: The Value Chain
14-5
I. Strategy, Production, and Logistics
Production - activities involved in creating a product Logistics - the procurement and physical transmission of material through the supply chain, from suppliers to customers Production and logistics can be conducted internationally to 1) lower the costs of value creation; 2) add value by better serving customer needs.
14-11
1. Country Factors
国际贸易理论与实务(英语)-教学大纲
International trade theory and practices(English) SyllabusCourse Code: 031122BCourse Type:obligatory CoursePeriods: 32Credits: 2Target students：Translation for economics and tradePreparatory Courses: International Economics1、Objectives"International Trade Theory and Practice" （English）is a trade professional foundation courses, targeted professional courses in English learning environment for students. The course teaches students the basic theory and practice of international trade in English, help them master the basic operating procedures for international trade, so as to facilitate them doing business in related work from an international perspective, lay the foundation for globalization as soon as possible.2.Basic Requirements(1) Main ContentsThis course focuses on the basic theories and procedures involved in international trade. Its contents include international trade theories, trade terms, terms of commodities, international cargo transport, cargo insurance, terms of price, international payment and settlement, claims, force majeure and arbitration, business negotiation and establishment of contract, etc. Among these, we should emphasize international trade theory, trade policies, international trade terms, international cargo transport, and cargo insurance.(2)Teaching MethodThis course teaches the theory and case studies taken combined. Teaching content of each chapter to take into account the combination of both social realities and trends, and also combined with practical business of international trade.(3) Assessment：Research paperThe course assessment will combine attendance, exercises and final paper. Among them, final paper: 60%; exercises: 20%; attendance: 10%.(4) Learning RequirementsBefore learn this course, Students should grasp the knowledge of international economics as a basis. In order to achieve the purpose of teaching applied courses, this course will organize lectures and exercises.3. Arrangements4. SyllabusChapter1 IntroductionKey points and difficulties：basic concepts of international tradeBasic requirements：LectureGuidelines：target, history and basic concepts of international trade.Chapter 2 international trade theoryKey points and difficulties：Classical trade theory, neo-classical trade theory, new trade theoryBasic requirements：LectureGuidelines：To understand the theory of international trade, and international trade of contemporary theory; understanding of modern theory of international trade; grasp the traditional international trade theory and trade protection theory.Chapter 3 international distributionKey points and difficulties：The relationship between international division of labor and the development of international trade, the international division of labor, the world market and international tradeBasic requirements：LectureGuidelines：To understand the formation and development of international division of labor and the world market; understand the meaning of international division of labor and the world market, and the relationship of international trade.Chapter 4 MNES and international tradeKey points and difficulties：MNCS theoriesBasic requirements：Lecture，DiscussionGuidelines：To understand the formation and development of the Multi-National Corporation; understand the operating mechanism of Multi-National Corporation; grasp the theory of the Multi-National CorporationChapter5 GlobalizationKey points and difficulties：Regional integration theory, the concept of economic integrationBasic requirements：Lecture，DiscussionGuidelines：Understand the development of regional integration, understand and grasp the integration concept, regions of the worldChapter 6 international trade policyKey points and difficulties：Chinese foreign trade policy, trade policy history Basic requirements：LectureGuidelines：To understand the development of international trade policy evolution, understanding the significance of protection of trade policy in developing countries. Knowledge of our current trade policyChapter 7 TariffKey points and difficulties：Types of tariff, the tariff effectBasic requirements：Lecture，DiscussionGuidelines：To understand the significance of understanding the tariff; tariff collection types of methods and procedures; master the major dutiesChapter 8 Non-tariff barriersKey points and difficulties：Type of non tariff and new developmentBasic requirements：Lecture，DiscussionGuidelines：To understand the meaning and characteristics of non tariff; understand non-tariff new development; master the main non-tariff measuresChapter 9 pushing exportKey points and difficulties：Export encouragement and control measuresBasic requirements：Lecture，DiscussionGuidelines：Understanding of the relevant measures of content, understand and master the relevant measures ofChapter 10 WTOKey points and difficulties：The rules of world trade measuresBasic requirements：LectureGuidelines：Understand the development of the World Trade Organization and relationship with Chinese; understand and master the basic rules of the World Trade OrganizationChapter 11 Movement of factorsKey points and difficulties：The welfare effects of factor movementBasic requirements：LectureGuidelines：Understand the reason and welfare effect of factor movement in both the sending and receiving countriesChapter 12 Import and Export Trading procedureKey points and difficulties：Business negotiation, import and export trade procedureBasic requirements：LectureGuidelines：Understanding the law of contract, understand the offer and acceptance conditions, grasp the import and export trade process。
14章金融答案翻译
CHAPTER 14FORWARD AND FUTURES PRICESObjectives• To explain the economic role of futures markets• To show what information can and cannot be inferred from forward and futures prices.•Outline14.1 Distinctions Between Forward and Futures Contracts14.2 The Economic Function of Futures Markets14.3 The Role of Speculators14.4 Relation Between Commodity Spot and Futures Prices14.5 Extracting Information from Commodity Futures Prices14.6 Spot-Futures Price Parity for Gold14.7 Financial Futures14.8 The Implied Risk-Free Rate14.9 The Forward Price Is Not a Forecast of the Spot Price14.10 Forward-Spot Parity with Cash Payouts14.11 Implied Dividends14.12 The Foreign-Exchange Parity Relation14.13 The Role of Expectations in Determining Exchange RatesSummary• Futures contracts make it possible to separate the decision of whether to physically store a commodity from the decision tohave financial exposure to its price changes.• Speculators in futures markets improve the informational content of futures prices and make futures markets more liquid thanthey would otherwise be.• The futures price of wheat cannot exceed the spot price by more than the cost of carry:• The forward-spot price parity relation for gold is that the forward price equals the spot price times the cost of carry:This relation is maintained by the force of arbitrage . • One can infer the implied cost of carry and the implied storage costs from the observed spot and forward prices and the risk-free interest rate.• The forward-spot parity relation for stocks is that the forward price equals the spot price times 1 plus the risk-free rate less theexpected cash dividend.This relation can therefore be used to infer the implied dividend from the observed spot and forward prices and the risk-free interest rate.• The forward-spot price parity relation for the dollar/yen exchange rate involves two interest rates:where F is the forward price of the yen, S is the current spot price, r Y is the yen interest rate, and r $ is the dollar interest rate.• If the forward dollar/yen exchange rate is an unbiased forecast of the future spot exchange rate, then one can infer that forecasteither from the forward rate or from the dollar-denominated and yen-denominated risk-free interest rates.F S C-≤F S r s =++()1F S r D=+-()1F r S r Y11+=+$Solutions to Problems at End of ChapterForward Contracts and Forward-Spot Parity.1. Suppose that you are planning a trip to England. The trip is a year from now, and you have reserved a hotel room in London at a price of ₤ 50 per day. You do not have to pay for the room in advance. The exchange rate is currently $1.50 to the pound sterling.a.Explain several possible ways that you could completely hedge the exchange rate risk in this situation.b.Suppose that r₤=.12 and r$=.08. Because S=$1.50, what must the forward price of the pound be?c.Show that if F is $0.10 higher than in your answer to part b, there would be an arbitrage opportunity. SOLUTION:a.Ways to hedge the exchange rate risk:Pay for the room in advanceBuy the pounds you will need in the forward market.Invest the present value of the rental payments in a pound-denominated riskless asset.对冲外汇风险的几种方法：提前对这个房间付款；在期货市场购买英镑；将与现期价值的租金同等的英镑投资于无风险资产。
衍生品市场(derivatives market)共93页
同时一人身兼首席交易员和清算主管两职。 有一次，他手下的一个交易员，因操作失误亏损 了6万英镑， 当里森知道后，却因为害怕事情暴露影响他的前 程，便决定动用88888“错误帐户”。 而所谓的“错误帐户”，是指银行对代理客户交 易过程中可能发生的经纪业务错误进行核算的帐户 （作备用）。 以后，他为了私利一再动用“错误帐户”，创造 银行帐户上显示的均是赢利交易。
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Option I: – Invest in a 1-year Treasury. When it matures, invest in another 1-year Treasury.
➢远期外汇合约（Forward Exchange
Contracts）
➢ 远期利率协议（Forward Rate Agreement）
金融远期合约的种类
远期利率协议（Forward Rate Agreements，FRA） – 是一种远期合约，买卖双方商定将来一定时间点(指利 息起算日)开始的一定期限的协议利率，并规定以何种 利率为参照利率，在将来利息起算日，按规定的协议 利率、期限和本金额，由当事人一方向另一方支付协 议利率与参照利率利息差的贴现额。 – 多方：名义借款人，目的主要是为了规避利率上升的 风险。 – 空方：名义贷款人，目的主要是为了规避利率下降的 风险。 – 名义：借贷双方不必交换本金，只是在结算日根据协 议利率和参考利率之间的差额以及名义本金额，由交 易一方付给另一方结算金。 – 远期利率：现在时刻开始的将来一定期限的利率。如 14远期利率，即表示1个月之后开始的期限3个月的 远期利率。
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•
• 期货合约：期货合约是一种在将来的某个时间交割一定数量和质量等 期货合约：
• 套期保值的基本作法
• 在现货市场和期货市场对同一种类的商品同时进行数 量相等但方向相反的买卖活动，即在买进或卖出实货 的同时，在期货市场上卖出或买进同等数量的期货。 • 经过一段时间，当价格变动使现货买卖上出现的盈亏 时，可由期货交易上的亏盈得到抵消或弥补。从而在 “现”与“期”之间、近期和远期之间建立一种对冲机制， 以使价格风险降低到最低限度。
II. Futures Market
• 1. Futures Exchange
• 期货交易所：是买卖期货合约的场所，是期货市场的核心。 期货交易所：是买卖期货合约的场所，是期货市场的核心。 • 它是一种非营利机构，但是它的非营利性仅指交易所本身不进行交易 它是一种非营利机构， 活动，不以盈利为目的不等于不讲利益核算。在这个意义上， 活动，不以盈利为目的不等于不讲利益核算。在这个意义上，交易所 还是一个财务独立的营利组织，它在为交易者提供一个公开、公平、 还是一个财务独立的营利组织，它在为交易者提供一个公开、公平、 公正的交易场所和有效监督服务基础上实现合理的经济利益， 公正的交易场所和有效监督服务基础上实现合理的经济利益，包括会 员会费收入、交易手续费收入、信息服务收入及其它收入。 员会费收入、交易手续费收入、信息服务收入及其它收入。它所制定 的一套制度规则为整个期货市场提供了一种自我管理机制， 的一套制度规则为整个期货市场提供了一种自我管理机制，使得期货 交易的“公开、公平、公正”原则得以实现。 交易的“公开、公平、公正”原则得以实现。
上市品种
• 指期货合约交易的标的物，如合约所代表的玉米、铜、石油等。 指期货合约交易的标的物，如合约所代表的玉米、 石油等。 • 并不是所有的商品都适合做期货交易，在众多的实物商品中，一 并不是所有的商品都适合做期货交易，在众多的实物商品中， 般而言只有具备下列属性的商品才能作为期货合约的上市品种： 般而言只有具备下列属性的商品才能作为期货合约的上市品种： • 一是价格波动大。 一是价格波动大。 • 二是供需量大。 二是供需量大。 • 三是易于分级和标准化。 三是易于分级和标准化。 • 四是易于储存、运输。 四是易于储存、运输。 • 根据交易品种，期货交易可分为两大类：商品期货和金融期货。 根据交易品种，期货交易可分为两大类：商品期货和金融期货。 以实物商品，如玉米、小麦、 以实物商品，如玉米、小麦、铜、铝等作为期货品种的属商品期 以金融产品，如汇率、利率、 货。以金融产品，如汇率、利率、股票指数等作为期货品种的属 于金融期货。金融期货品种一般不存在质量问题， 于金融期货。金融期货品种一般不存在质量问题，交割也大都采 用差价结算的现金交割方式。我国上市品种主要有铜、 大豆、 用差价结算的现金交割方式。我国上市品种主要有铜、铝、大豆、 小麦和nization; a board of directors; a fixed number of memberships) General responsibilities of a futures exchange
II. Futures Market
• 2. Futures Contract
Chapter 14 Futures Trading
Outline
• I. Introduction to Futures Trading • II. Futures Market • • • • • • • 1. Futures Exchange 2. Futures Contract 3. The Clearing House 4. Participants 5. Margin System 1. Selling Hedge 2. Buying Hedge
I. Introduction to Futures Trading
• Today many futures exchanges all over the world are active in trading futures contracts on various commodities and financial instruments, such as stock index futures, agricultural commodities futures, metal futures, energy futures, etc.
I. Introduction to Futures Trading
• Some of the famous futures exchanges • 期货交易所
• VOA：Chicago Board of Trade （listening） VOA：
II. Futures Market
• What is a futures market market? • 期货市场：是进行期货交易的场所，是多种期货交易 期货市场：是进行期货交易的场所，
期货市场的功能
早期功能： 早期功能：
1. 为交易者提供一个安全、 准确、迅速交易的场所 2. 稳定产销关系 3.减缓价格波动 4.建立新的市场秩序 5.促进交通、仓储、通讯 事业的发展
现代功能： 现代功能：
1. 回避风险的功能 2. 形成真正价格的功能 3. 基准价格的功能 4. 合理利用各种闲置资金 的功能 5. 促使经济国际化的功能
II. Futures Market
• 5. Margin System
• • • faith deposit purpose: protection two kinds of margin
• original margin or initial margin vs. variation margin or call margin
关系的总和。 关系的总和。 • 它是按照“公开、公平、公正”原则，在现货市场基 它是按照“公开、公平、公正”原则， 础上发展起来的高度组织化和高度规范化的市场形式。 础上发展起来的高度组织化和高度规范化的市场形式。 • 既是现货市场的延伸，又是市场的又一个高级发展阶 既是现货市场的延伸， 段。 • 从组织结构上看，广义上的期货市场包括期货交易所、 从组织结构上看，广义上的期货市场包括期货交易所 包括期货交易所、 结算所或结算公司、经纪公司和期货交易员； 结算所或结算公司、经纪公司和期货交易员；狭义上 的期货市场仅指期货交易所 仅指期货交易所。 的期货市场仅指期货交易所。
套期保值的作用 • 原始动机是消除现货交易的风险，取得正常的 原始动机是消除现货交易的风险， 是消除现货交易的风险 生产经营利润。 生产经营利润。 • 作用： 作用： • 第一、锁定企业的生产成本。 第一、锁定企业的生产成本。 • 第二、套期保值者是期货市场存在的原始力量， 第二、套期保值者是期货市场存在的原始力量， 是期货市场交易的主体。 是期货市场交易的主体。
• A binding agreement between a seller and a buyer for the delivery of the underlying commodity or financial instrument at a specified future date. rise and fall of the price
• 6. 期货交易中的开户流程
• 与一般的商品现货交易相比，期货交易在其业务操作流程上具有自 与一般的商品现货交易相比， 身的特点，概括地说就是规范性、系统性、程序性和完整性。 身的特点，概括地说就是规范性、系统性、程序性和完整性。这是 由于期货交易竞争性强，风险程度高，必须严密组织、严格管理。 由于期货交易竞争性强，风险程度高，必须严密组织、严格管理。 • 期货交易业务操作一般包括合约交易、账户清算、实物交割等几个 期货交易业务操作一般包括合约交易 账户清算、实物交割等几个 合约交易、 方面。 方面。
• DOC.
III. Hedging
• III. Hedging • Hedging refers to the use of the futures market to reduce the risk of a cash market position. • “opposite” • 在期货市场上买进（卖出）与现货市场数量相当、但 在期货市场上买进（卖出） 交易方向相反的期货合约， 交易方向相反的期货合约，以期在未来某一时间通过 卖出（买进） 卖出（买进）期货合约来补偿因现货市场价格变动所 带来的实际价格风险。 带来的实际价格风险。
• VOA：AGRICULTURE REPORT - Commodity VOA： Futures Markets （listening）
• 金融期货：指以金融工具为标的物的期货合约。金融期 金融期货： 货作为期货交易中的一种，具有期货交易的一般特点， 但与商品期货相比较，其合约标的物不是实物商品，而 是传统的金融商品，如证券、货币、汇率、利率等。 • 利率期货：是指以债券类证券为标的物的期货合约，它 利率期货： 可以回避银行利率波动所引起的证券价格变动的风险。 • 货币期货：又称外汇期货，它是以汇率为标的物的期货 货币期货： 合约，用来回避汇率风险。 • 股票指数期货：是一种以股票价格指数作为标的物的金 股票指数期货： 融期货合约。
• III. Hedging
I. Introduction to Futures Trading
• What do you know about Futures Trading? • The origination of Futures Trading
期货市场的运作原理 ——价格风险的分散化