曼昆经济学原理(双语)2.10

曼昆经济学原理（双语）
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第二章像经济学家一样思考
2.10
2-2c Why Economists’ Advice Is Not Always Followed
2-2c 为何经济学家的意见并非总能被采纳
Any economist who advises presidents or other elected leaders knows that his recommendations are not always heeded. Frustrating as this can be, it is easy to understand. The process by which economic policy is actually made differs in many ways from the idealized policy process assumed in economics textbooks.
任何为总统或其他民选领导人提供建议的经济学家都知道，他的建议并不总是得到重视。

虽然这可能令人沮丧，但很容易理解。

实际制定经济政策的过程与经济学教科书中所设想的理想化政策过程在许多方面有所不同。

Throughout this text, whenever we discuss economic policy, we often focus on one question: What is the best policy for the government to pursue? We act as if policy were set by a benevolent king. Once the
king figures out the right policy, he has no trouble putting his ideas into action.
纵观全文，每当我们讨论经济政策时，我们往往会集中在一个问题上：政府寻求的最佳政策是什么？我们的做法就好像政策是由仁慈的国王制定的。

一旦国王找到了正确的政策，他就可以毫不费力地把他的想法付诸行动。

In the real world, figuring out the right policy is only part of a leader’s job, sometimes the easiest part. After a president hears from his economic advisers about what policy is best from their perspective, he turns to other advisers for related input. His communications advisers will tell him how best to explain the proposed policy to the public, and they will try to anticipate any misunderstandings that might make the challenge more difficult. His press advisers will tell him how the news media will report on his proposal and what opinions will likely be expressed on the nation’s editorial pages. His legislative affairs advisers will tell him how Congress will view the proposal, what amendments members of Congress will suggest, and the likelihood that Congress will pass some version of the president’s proposal into law. His political advisers will tell him which groups will organize to support or oppose the proposed policy, how this proposal will affect his standing among different groups in the electorate, and whether it will change support for any of the president’s other policy initiatives. After hearing and weighing
all this advice, the president then decides how to proceed.
在现实世界中，找出正确的政策只是领导者工作的一部分，有时是最简单的部分。

当一位总统从他的经济顾问那里听到他们认为什么样的政策是最好的之后，他会向其他顾问寻求相关的建议。

他的公关顾问将告诉他如何最好地向公众解释提议的政策，他们将努力预测任何可能使挑战更加困难的误解。

他的新闻顾问将告诉他，新闻媒体将如何报道他的提议，以及在全国的社论版上可能发表什么意见。

他的立法事务顾问将告诉他，国会将如何看待这项提案，国会议员将提出哪些修正案，以及国会通过总统政策提议的某个提案的可能性。

他的政治顾问将告诉他，哪些团体将组织起来支持或反对这项提议，这项提议将如何影响他在选民中不同群体中的地位，以及它是否会改变对总统其他政策举措的支持。

在听取并权衡了所有这些建议之后，总统才决定如何进行。

Making economic policy in a representative democracy is a messy affair— and there are often good reasons why presidents (and other politicians) do not advance the policies that economists advocate. Economists offer crucial input to the policy process, but their advice is only one ingredient of a complex recipe.
在代议制民主中，制定经济政策是一件麻烦事——总统（和其他政客）通常有充足的理由不推进经济学家提出的政策建议。

经济学家为政策过程作出重要贡献，但他们的建议只是复杂配方中的一个组成部分。