Primary Research on Disaster Risk Management

Area beyond B refers to high risk area, where graveness and outburst are characterized, making prevention or control unavailable, such as the disastrous earthquake in Tangshan, the Indian Ocean Tsunami and other serious natural disasters, and thus it’s necessary to wok on carefully.
and for the sake of interest, we could simulate several basic ways by Fig.1
As Fig.1 shows, OA refers to risk blind area, where the losses of a disaster are far less than the costs of precautions, and thus many enterprises deal with such risk blindly, ignore production safety, succumb to the fate, or even pin their hopes to the god. This case contributes to a major reason of accidents in China’s middle or small-sized enterprises, especially in mining. For example, a couple of years ago, a gas explosion took place in a coal mine and the owner of the coal mine paid the victims 50,000 Yuan each as a compensation. Unexpectedly, the family members of one victim went home with the money cheerfully and said they’d never seen so much money. In recent years, the compensation has risen to 200,000 Yuan per person, still a small amount compared with corporate profits. Some scholars proposed that the state should formulate high compensation regulations so as to million Yuan like some developed countries. If so, things will go contrary to our expectations and accident frequency will get higher because some people might try to cause accidents on purpose under the temptation of high compensation. With respect to the national situation, the current compensation for the victim is comparatively low but is only temporary. Supervision shall be enhanced in order to address the issue of high-frequency production safety accident.
An improved matrix model [4]~[6] is employed in this paper to identify the situations in blind area and controllable area and all the numbers, as expenditures, are expressed with minuses.
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Keywords-disaster; probability; intervened countermeasure
I. INTRODUCTION
matrix;
In recent years, risk management has become one of the hot issues, indicating that human beings have enhanced their risk awareness and got calmer when faced with tough problems, and that the society is advancing and getting mature. The current understanding of risk could be described as: Risk is the combination of the probability of an event and its consequent losses, more precisely speaking risk is the potential losses of a deviation from the expected target. First, we classify risk into two categories: one is caused by people’s initiative activities, such as investment, financial credit, new product development and exploration, called snare risk or speculative risk, where there is a possibility of gain as well as loss (a risk with more complicated mechanism).
The other is caused by natural or man-made calamity or poor environment, which human beings are passive and reluctant to accept and thus called disaster risk [1], an objective existence which could exist at any and every object with high uncertainty[2][3]. Focusing on the production safety management, disaster risk management is discussed in this paper and unique opinions are provided for further discussion.
AB refers to disaster controllable area, featuring losses could be controlled or even reduced through certain safety precautions. When the losses of accident far outweigh the cost of safety precautions, the business owner will take initiative safety precautions to prevent accidents.
Primary Research on Disaster Risk Management
LEI Zhiyi
College of traffic Hohai University Nanjing P.R.China Lei_zhiyi@
Abstract—Risk has always been analyzed according to two
B. The Matrix for theEexpenditure of the Enterprise
II. MATRIX MODEL
A. Risk Areas
Although it’s a well-known fact that natural and man-made disasters exist in production and life, human beings might adopt various attitudes and countermeasures towards them: subject to their fates, just let them happen, pay excessive attention to them, keep away from them or take precautions actively. As the production safety is concerned
parameters, namely, probability of an event and the losses it may cause. Risk is classified into three areas in this paper. The using of probability analysis alone may give rise to some misguidance, and two new parameters are proposed to analyze the disaster risk, namely the cost of safety precautions and losses of the disaster. Without probability analysis, an intervened matrix model is developed for a preliminary test. The game theory and optimized method are employed in this paper to address the issue of disaster risk and a corresponding management mechanism is established as well.