1.27Economist Summary
economist 经济学家
economist 经济学家简介经济学家是指研究经济学的专家，他们通过分析市场和经济数据，为决策者提供经济政策建议，并对经济开展趋势进行预测。
他们的研究范围包括宏观经济学、微观经济学、国际经济学、金融经济学等。
在现代社会中，经济学家在政府、金融机构、学术界都扮演着重要的角色。
经济学家的职责经济学家的职责主要包括以下几个方面：1. 经济数据分析经济学家需要收集和分析各种经济数据，例如国内生产总值〔GDP〕、通货膨胀率、失业率等。
通过对这些数据的分析，经济学家可以评估经济的健康状况，发现问题，并提供解决方案。
2. 经济政策研究经济学家对各种经济政策进行研究，包括财政政策、货币政策、税收政策等。
他们通过分析政策的影响和效果，为政府和决策者提供建议，帮助他们制定正确的经济政策。
3. 经济预测和预警经济学家通过分析市场和经济趋势，预测未来的经济开展走势，并提供预警和建议。
他们可以预测通货膨胀、经济增长，以及其他与经济相关的指标。
这些预测对于政府、企业和个人做出正确的决策非常重要。
4. 教育和研究经济学家在学术界发挥着重要的作用，他们进行经济学的教育和研究工作。
他们培养新一代的经济学家，推动经济学的开展，并发表各种经济学研究成果。
经济学家的重要性经济学家在现代社会中扮演着至关重要的角色。
他们的研究和分析对于决策者和各个领域的人士具有指导意义。
以下是经济学家的重要性的几个方面：1. 经济政策指导经济学家的研究成果和政策建议对于政府和决策者在制定和实施经济政策时具有重要指导作用。
通过经济学家的分析，政府可以制定出更为科学合理的政策，促进经济的稳定和开展。
2. 企业战略规划经济学家对市场和行业的研究可以帮助企业制定战略规划。
他们可以预测市场的需求和开展趋势，为企业提供决策依据，帮助企业降低风险，拓展市场。
3. 个人投资决策对于个人投资者来说，经济学家的研究和分析可以提供投资建议，帮助他们做出明智的投资决策。
个人投资者可以通过了解经济的开展趋势和市场的行情，躲避风险，获得更好的投资回报。
《Economist》常用词汇总结
◆The Economist 《经济学人》常用原理解释●蝴蝶效应:上个世纪70年代，美国一个名叫洛伦兹的气象学家在解释空气系统理论时说，亚马逊雨林一只蝴蝶翅膀偶尔振动，也许两周后就会引起美国得克萨斯州的一场龙卷风。
蝴蝶效应是说，初始条件十分微小的变化经过不断放大，对其未来状态会造成极其巨大的差别。
有些小事可以糊涂，有些小事如经系统放大，则对一个组织、一个国家来说是很重要的，就不能糊涂。
●鳄鱼法则：其原意是假定一只鳄鱼咬住你的脚，如果你用手去试图挣脱你的脚，鳄鱼便会同时咬住你的脚与手。
你愈挣扎，就被咬住得越多。
所以，万一鳄鱼咬住你的脚，你唯一的办法就是牺牲一只脚。
譬如在股市中，鳄鱼法则就是：当你发现自己的交易背离了市场的方向，必须立即止损，不得有任何延误，不得存有任何侥幸。
●鲇鱼效应：以前，沙丁鱼在运输过程中成活率很低。
后有人发现，若在沙丁鱼中放一条鲇鱼，情况却有所改观，成活率会大大提高。
这是何故呢?原来鲇鱼在到了一个陌生的环境后，就会“性情急躁”，四处乱游，这对于大量好静的沙丁鱼来说，无疑起到了搅拌作用;而沙丁鱼发现多了这样一个“异已分子”，自然也很紧张，加速游动。
这样沙丁鱼缺氧的问题就迎刃而解了，沙丁鱼也就不会死了。
●羊群效应：头羊往哪里走，后面的羊就跟着往哪里走。
羊群效应最早是股票投资中的一个术语，主要是指投资者在交易过程中存在学习与模仿现象，“有样学样”，盲目效仿别人，从而导致他们在某段时期内买卖相同的股票。
●刺猬法则：两只困倦的刺猬，由于寒冷而拥在一起。
可因为各自身上都长着刺，于是它们离开了一段距离，但又冷得受不了，于是凑到一起。
几经折腾，两只刺猬终于找到一个合适的距离：既能互相获得对方的温暖而又不至于被扎。
刺猬法则主要是指人际交往中的“心理距离效应”。
●手表定律：手表定律是指一个人有一只表时，可以知道现在是几点钟，而当他同时拥有两只时却无法确定。
两只表并不能告诉一个人更准确的时间，反而会使看表的人失去对准确时间的信心。
罗默《高级宏观经济学》(第1和2版)笔记和课后习题详解
罗默《高级宏观经济学》(第1和2版)笔记和课后习题详解本文深入讨论罗默《高级宏观经济学》(第1和2版)，旨在为学习者提供出色的笔记、精彩的课后习题解析，并对概念、理论和应用进行认真的细致分析，从而增加理解深度，完成更深层的知识探索。
《高级宏观经济学》是由罗默编写的经济学经典，既有第一版，也有第二版。
该书深入探讨了有关宏观经济的一系列概念，从而帮助学习者更好地理解宏观经济学和实践中的问题。
本文主要记录了罗默《高级宏观经济学》的笔记和课后习题详解。
一、《高级宏观经济学（第一版）》笔记：1.什么是宏观经济学？宏观经济学是研究几个最基本的经济活动，如消费、、政府支出、出口和多国贸易等，以及它们如何影响整体经济活动的经济学分支。
它重点关注经济中的总体现象，这些总体现象包括：一般内需、总计计划、工业产出、通货膨胀和未来经济增长。
2.宏观经济学的重要概念宏观经济学的重要概念包括：货币与兴贸易政策。
货币政策包括由中央银行控制的货币和信贷供应，而贸易政策包括贸易壁垒、补贴和关税等。
此外，宏观经济学还关注大规模的经济转换，如通货膨胀、失业和衰退。
3. 宏观经济学中的重要理论宏观经济学中的重要理论包括：需求管理理论、金融结构理论、宏观经济政策理论以及经济增长理论。
它们都被广泛应用于实践中，有助于帮助政府改善国民经济的表现。
二、《高级宏观经济学（第二版）》笔记：1.经济增长的关键因素经济增长的关键因素包括资本形成、技术进步和劳动力。
资本形成是指为生产加倍而积极的活动；技术进步指科学技术的发展；劳动力是指劳动力技能和可用劳动力水平的增加。
这三个因素是推动经济增长的关键因素。
2.宏观经济政策宏观经济政策分为货币政策和财政政策。
货币政策是由中央银行控制的货币及信贷供应的政策，其目的是稳定经济和利率，达到最佳的经济增长；而财政政策则指政府通过征税、支出和债务管理来调节经济的政策。
3.货币策略货币策略主要通过操作利率和货币供应来实现宏观经济目标。
计量经济学stata命令汇总
计量经济学stata命令汇总1. 数据处理与描述性统计summarize 变量1 变量2…计算变量的均值、中位数等统计量tabulate 变量1 变量2…制表histogram 变量画单变量直方图scatter 变量1 变量2…画双变量散点图graph twoway 程序名变量1 变量2…绘制双变量图形sort 变量按照变量排序by 变量: 命令按照变量拆分数据并执行命令replace 变量=表达式替换变量中的值generate 新变量=表达式生成新变量egen 新变量=函数(变量) 生成新变量2. 回归分析regress 因变量自变量1 自变量2…普通最小二乘回归reg 相关变量,robust 异方差鲁棒性回归logit 因变量自变量1 自变量2…二元Logit模型probit 因变量自变量1 自变量2…二元Probit模型tobit 因变量自变量1 自变量2… 截尾变量（下界或上界）cens(下界或上界) 截尾Tobit模型heckman 因变量自变量1 自变量2… 难以观察到自变量矩阵决策过程变量名称=接收权值做二阶段回归Heckman选择模型pheckman 因变量自变量1 自变量2… 难以观察到自变量矩阵决策过程经验Bayes做二阶段回归Pooled Heckman选择模型xtset 变量1 变量2…指定面板数据xtreg 因变量自变量1 自变量2…, fe/be/fevd/arellano间隔估计xtlogit 因变量自变量1 自变量2…, fe面板Logit模型xtprobit 因变量自变量1 自变量2…, fe面板Probit模型3. 时间序列分析dfuller 变量单位根检验tsset 变量指定时间序列数据tsline 变量绘制时间序列图arma 阶数, lags(*laglist*) ARMA过程估计arima 阶数, lags(*laglist*) 差分阶数(*diff*) 现有模型(*model*) ARIMA模型估计arch hq/aic, lags(*laglist*) ARCH模型估计garch q=p o=r t=m, arch(q) garch(p) GARCH模型估计ivregress （2SLS）因变量自变量1（内生变量）编号=gmm/cluster(varname) 内生变量外生变量IV或2SLS回归分析4. 面板数据分析&横截面数据分析xtsum 等对面板数据的描述统计量xttest0 2个变量计算相对于H0的t值，考虑了异方差和面板数据结构（前提是两个变量符合随机效应或固定效应假设）xttobit 因变量自变量1 自变量2… 下界 cens(下界或上界)面板Tobit模型xtreg 因变量自变量1 自变量2…, fe/be/fevd/arellano面板回归模型xtlogit/xtprobit 因变量自变量1 自变量2…, fe面板分类模型5. 高级统计方法cluster 变量聚类分析pca 变量1 变量2…, components(4)主成分分析mvreg 因变量向量1 向量2…, clustervar(cluster)多元回归及聚类分析multilevel 因变量自变量1 自变量2…, mle 内部命令（通常是cov）多层线性模型分析glm 因变量自变量1 自变量2…, family(binomial) 连接函数(logit/probit) 难以观察到自变量（即随机拦截模型）其他选项广义线性模型分析heckprob/reg3 因变量自变量1 自变量2… 等随机效应模型分析。
计量经济学主要公式
计量经济学主要公式1. 简介计量经济学是一门研究经济现象的定量分析方法。
在计量经济学中，有许多重要的公式被广泛应用于经济数据的分析和解释。
本文将介绍计量经济学中的一些主要公式，并对其进行解释和应用。
2. 最小二乘法估计最小二乘法估计是计量经济学中最常用的估计方法之一。
它用于确定数据之间的线性关系，并找到使得预测值与真实值之间的平方差最小化的最佳拟合线。
最小二乘法估计的公式如下：Y = β0 + β1X + ε其中，Y表示因变量，X表示自变量，β0和β1是待估计的参数，ε表示误差项。
最小二乘法估计的目标是最小化误差项的平方和，即使得∑ε^2最小化。
3. 弹性系数弹性系数是衡量变量之间相互影响程度的指标。
在计量经济学中，弹性系数经常被用来衡量因变量对自变量的变化的敏感度。
常见的弹性系数有价格弹性、收入弹性等。
弹性系数的计算公式如下：E = (ΔY / Y) / (ΔX / X)其中，E表示弹性系数，ΔY表示因变量的变化量，ΔX表示自变量的变化量，Y表示因变量的原始值，X表示自变量的原始值。
弹性系数的绝对值越大，表示变量之间的相互影响越大。
4. 汇总函数汇总函数用于描述宏观经济关系中的总量变量之间的关系。
计量经济学中常用的汇总函数包括线性汇总函数和非线性汇总函数。
线性汇总函数的一般形式如下：Y = a + b1X1 + b2X2 + ... + bnXn其中，Y表示因变量，X1、X2、…、Xn表示自变量，a表示截距，b1、b2、…、bn表示回归系数。
线性汇总函数可以用于宏观经济模型的建立和政策分析。
5. 假设检验假设检验是计量经济学中用于检验统计推断的一种方法。
通过对样本数据进行分析，假设检验可以判断统计推断是否具有显著性。
常用的假设检验有t检验、F检验等。
假设检验的一般步骤包括建立原假设和备择假设、计算检验统计量、确定临界值和进行推断。
假设检验的结果通常用p值来表示。
6. 时间序列分析时间序列分析是计量经济学中研究时间序列数据的方法。
TheEconomist《经济学人》常用词汇总结我眼泪都流出来了太珍.
两种变量系统地相互联系在一起的程度。
307、Cost ，average 平均成本等于总成本（参见 "总成本" ， cost ，total ）除以产出的单位数。
The Economist 《经济学人》常用词汇总结 我眼泪都流出来了 太珍The Economist 《经济学人》常用词汇总结 我眼泪都流出来了 太珍贵了 !! 16 小时前 301、Consumption function 消费函数 总消费与个人可支配收人（ PDI ） 认为会对消费产生影响。
的数值对应关系。
总财富和其他变量也常被 302、Consumption-possibility line 消费可能线 见预算线（ budget line ）。
303、Cooperative equilibrium合作性均衡 博弈论中，指各方协调行动，以求共同的支付（ joint pay － offs ）最优化的 策略而达到的结果。
304、Corporate income tax 公司所得税对公司年净收入课征的税收。
305、Corporation 公司 现代资本主义经济中企业组织的主要形式。
它是由个人或其他公司所拥有的 企业，具有与个人一样的购买、销售和签订合同的权利。
公司和对公司负 责任" 的所有人二者，在法律上是不同的概念。
"有限306、Correlation相关308、Cost ，average fixed 平均固定成本等于固定成本除以产出的单位数。
309、Cost，average variable 平均可变成本等于可变成本（参见" 可变成本" ，cost ，variable ）除以产出的单位数。
310、Cost ，fixed 固定成本一企业在某时段即使在产量为零时也会发生的成本。
总固定成本由诸如利息支出、抵押支出、管理者费用等契约性开支所组成。
311、Cost ，marginal 边际成本多生产1 单位产品所增加的成本（或总成本的增加额），或少生产1 单位产品总成本的减少额。
计量经济学(英文)重点知识点考试必备
第一章1.Econometrics（计量经济学）：the social science in which the tools of economic theory, mathematics, and statistical inference are applied to the analysis of economic phenomena.the result of a certain outlook on the role of economics, consists of the application of mathematical statistics to economic data to lend empirical support to the models constructed by mathematical economics and to obtain numerical results.2.Econometric analysis proceeds along the following lines计量经济学分析步骤1)Creating a statement of theory or hypothesis.建立一个理论假说2)Collecting data.收集数据3)Specifying the mathematical model of theory.设定数学模型4)Specifying the statistical, or econometric, model of theory.设立统计或经济计量模型5)Estimating the parameters of the chosen econometric model.估计经济计量模型参数6)Checking for model adequacy : Model specification testing.核查模型的适用性：模型设定检验7)Testing the hypothesis derived from the model.检验自模型的假设8)Using the model for prediction or forecasting.利用模型进行预测Step2：收集数据Three types of data三类可用于分析的数据1)Time series(时间序列数据):Collected over a period of time, are collected at regular intervals.按时间跨度收集得到2)Cross-sectional截面数据:Collected over a period of time, are collected at regular intervals.按时间跨度收集得到3)Pooled data合并数据（上两种的结合）Step3：设定数学模型1.plot scatter diagram or scattergram2.write the mathematical modelStep4：设立统计或经济计量模型CLFPR is dependent variable应变量CUNR is independent or explanatory variable独立或解释变量（自变量）We give a catchall variable U to stand for all these neglected factorsIn linear regression analysis our primary objective is to explain the behavior of the dependent variable in relation to the behavior of one or more other variables, allowing for the data that the relationship between them is inexact.线性回归分析的主要目标就是解释一个变量（应变量）与其他一个或多个变量（自变量）只见的行为关系，当然这种关系并非完全正确Step5：估计经济计量模型参数In short, the estimated regression line gives the relationship between average CLFPR and CUNR 简言之，估计的回归直线给出了平均应变量和自变量之间的关系That is, on average, how the dependent variable responds to a unit change in the independent variable.单位因变量的变化引起的自变量平均变化量的多少。
西方经济学宏观部分第四章IS-LM模型
二是，公司持有存货的增加，称为存货投资。
07
分别介绍三类投资的决定
一，企业固定投资
企业固定投资，是企业购买生产设备和建筑物的活动。是在一定时期内追加的资本存量。
在投资支出中比例最大，占总投资的3/4。
资本存量：拥有的生产设备和建筑物的数量。
最优资本存量多大？
新古典投资模型：
01
现实中大多数企业具有两种职能：一是生产，二是投资。
“温州的房地产开发规模相当于江西一个省的总量，而温州市区的人口不过100万多一点。” 炒本地楼市后，温州人开始大规模向外扩张，这就有了“温州购房团”。
01
作为有着“中国犹太人”之称的温州人，经过二三十年的财富积累，所掌握的民间资本已有6000亿元之 巨。敢闯敢干的温州商人，携巨款四处寻找投资机会。国人注意到温州民间资本的威力.
02
据不完全统计，温州市区及乐清、永嘉等县约有8万多人在全国购置房产，其中至少90%以上是炒楼，按 1人购买2套房子动用资金60万元计算，总资金额在420亿元
03
温州人的炒房首先是从家门口开始的，从1998年到2001年，民间资本的进入，促使当地房地产市场价格以每年20%的速度递增，市区房价快速从2000元/平方米左右，飚升到超过7000元/平方米，并一度无房可炒。精明的温州人之后迅速把资金转向临近的杭州与上海。
教材图21-8资本租赁价格的决定：
K* 最优资本存量
资本存量K
实际租赁价格 R/P
资本需求
任何 一个时点上，资本的存量是固定的，所以，资本供给曲线垂直的。 资本的供给和需求决定资本实际租赁价格，企业均衡租赁价格 (R/p) *， 企业以R租赁资本，以价格p出售产品，企业每单位资本实际租赁价格：R/P。
Economist中常出现的单词
The Economist 《经济学人》常用词汇大总结1、绝对优势（Absolute advantage）如果一个国家用一单位资源生产的某种产品比另一个国家多，那么，这个国家在这种产品的生产上与另一国相比就具有绝对优势。
2、逆向选择（Adverse choice）在此状况下，保险公司发现它们的客户中有太大的一部分来自高风险群体。
3、选择成本（Alternative cost）如果以最好的另一种方式使用的某种资源，它所能生产的价值就是选择成本，也可以称之为机会成本。
4、需求的弧弹性（Arc elasticity of demand）如果P1和Q1分别是价格和需求量的初始值，P2 和Q2 为第二组值，那么，弧弹性就等于-（Q1-Q2）（P1＋P2）/（P1-P2）（Q1＋Q2）5、非对称的信息（Asymmetric information）在某些市场中，每个参与者拥有的信息并不相同。
例如，在旧车市场上，有关旧车质量的信息，卖者通常要比潜在的买者知道得多。
6、平均成本（Average cost）平均成本是总成本除以产量。
也称为平均总成本。
7、平均固定成本( Average fixed cost）平均固定成本是总固定成本除以产量。
8、平均产品（Average product）平均产品是总产量除以投入品的数量。
9、平均可变成本（Average variable cost）平均可变成本是总可变成本除以产量。
10、投资的β(Beta）β度量的是与投资相联的不可分散的风险。
对于一种股票而言，它表示所有现行股票的收益发生变化时，一种股票的收益会如何敏感地变化。
11、债券收益(Bond yield）债券收益是债券所获得的利率。
12、收支平衡图（Break－even chart）收支平衡图表示一种产品所出售的总数量改变时总收益和总成本是如何变化的。
收支平衡点是为避免损失而必须卖出的最小数量。
13、预算线(Budget line）预算线表示消费者所能购买的商品X和商品Y的数量的全部组合。
国民经济统计学
1.国民经济核算体系国民经济核算体系由、账户和附属表三部分构成。
基本核算表包括国内生产总值表、投入产出表、资金流量表、和资产负债表。
生产范围国民的生产范围包括以下三部分：第一，生产者提供或准备提供给其他单位的货物或服务的生产；第二，生产者用于自身最终消费或的所有货物的自给性生产；第三，自有住房提供的住房服务和付酬家庭雇员提供的家庭服务的自给性生产。
（生产范围包括所有货物的生产，不论是对外提供的货物还是自产自用的货物，而服务的生产，则基本上限于对外提供的部分，自给性服务，除了自有住房服务和付酬家庭雇员提供的家庭或个人服务外，则被排除在生产范围之外。
被排除在生产范围之外的是指住户成员为本住户提供的家庭或个人服务，如清扫、做饭、照顾老人、教育儿童等等。
）消费范围生产范围决定消费范围，用于最终消费的货物和服务只能是生产范围内所包括的货物和服务。
生产范围包括所有货物的生产和除住户成员为本住户提供的家庭或个人服务之外的所有服务的生产，从而消费范围也限于包括在上述生产范围内的货物和服务。
资产范围国民经济核算中的资产是根据所有权的原则界定的经济资产，也就是说，资产必须为某个或某些单位所拥有，其所有者因持有或使用它们而获得经济利益。
根据这个定义，和由生产过程创造出来的、存货等，以及某些不是经过生产过程创造出来的自然产生的资产（如、矿藏、、资产等），只要某个或某些单位对这些资产有效地行使所有权，并能够从中获得经济利益，都属于资产范畴。
资产范围中不包括诸如大气或公海等无法有效地行使所有权的那些自然资源与环境，以及尚未发现或难以利用的矿藏，即一定时期内，鉴于它们本身的状况和现有的技术不能为其所有者带来任何经济利益的资源与环境。
国民经济核算体系核算原则1、权责发生制原则在国民经济核算中，各种交易的记录时间是按照权责发生制原则来确定的，即交易在债权债务发生、转移或取消的时间记录。
这一原则适用于各种交易，包括同一机构部门内部的交易。
计量经济学英文解释
计量经济学英文解释English:Econometrics is a branch of economics that applies statistical methods and mathematical models to analyze and quantify the relationships between economic variables. It aims to provide empirical evidence and test economic theories by using real-world data. By employing various econometric techniques, such as regression analysis, time series analysis, and panel data analysis, econometricians are able to estimate and measure the parameters of economic models, assess the significance of different factors, and make predictions or forecasts about future economic outcomes. Econometrics plays a crucial role in several areas of economics, including macroeconomics, microeconomics, finance, and labor economics, as it helps in understanding economic phenomena, formulating economic policies, and making informed decisions. In addition to its theoretical applications, econometrics also has practical applications in business, government, and research institutions where data-driven decision-making is important. Overall, econometrics provides a systematic and quantitative approach toeconomics, allowing economists to study and analyze economic behavior and relationships in a rigorous and scientific manner.中文翻译:计量经济学是经济学的一个分支，它应用统计方法和数学模型来分析和量化经济变量之间的关系。
economist的用法总结大全
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Economist(经济学人)
What's wrong with America's economy?Its politicians are failing to tackle the country’s real problems. Believe it or not, they could learn from EuropeApr 28th 2011 | from the EconomistPESSIMISM about the United States rarely pays off in the long run. Time and again, when Americans have felt particularly glum, their economy has been on the brink of a revival. Think of Jimmy Carter’s cardigan-clad gloom in the inflation-ridden late 1970s, or the fear of competition from Japan that marked the “jobless recovery” of the early 1990s. Both times the United States bounced back, boosted on the first occasion by Paul V olcker’s conquest of inflation and on the second by a productivity spurt that sent growth rates soaring in the mid-1990s even as Japan stalled.That record is worth bearing in mind today. Americans are unhappy, and becoming more so, about their country’s prospects and politicians’ efforts to improve them. In a new New York Times/CBS News poll, seven out of ten respondents said America is on the wrong track. Almost 60% of Americans disapprove of Barack Obama’s handling of the economy, and three out of four think Congress is doing a lousy job.This malaise partly reflects the sluggishness of the recovery. Though unemployment has been falling and share prices are close to a three-year high, house prices are still in the dumps and the price of petrol has soared to levels not seen since the summer of 2008. But it’s not all about oil or indeed the short term. A careful reading of the polls suggests that Ameri cans’ worries stretch well beyond the next couple of years: about stagnating living standards and a dark future in an economy slow to create jobs, saddled with big government deficits and under threat from China. Tellingly, a majority now regard China, not America, as the world’s leading economy.Are these worries justified? On the plus side, it is hard to think of any large country with as many inherent long-term advantages as America: what would China give to have a Silicon Valley? Or Germany an Ivy League? But it is also plain that the United States does indeed have long-term economic weaknesses—and ones that will take time to fix. The real worry for Americans should be that their politicians, not least their president, are doing so little to tackle these underlying problems. Three failings stand out.The competitiveness canardThe first failing, of which Mr Obama in particular is guilty, is misstating the problem. He likes to frame America’s challenges in terms of “competitiveness”, particularly versus China. America’s prosperity, he argues, depends on “out-innovating, out-educating and out-building” China. This is mostly nonsense. America’s prosperity depends not on other countries’ productivity growth, but on its own (actually pretty fast) pace. Ideas spill over from one economy to another: when China innovates Americans benefit.Of course, plenty more could be done to spur innovation. The system of corporate taxation is a mess and deters domestic investment. Mr. Obama is right that America’s infrastru cture is creaking. But the solution there has as much to do with reforming Neanderthal funding systems as it does with the greater public spending he advocates. Too much of the “competitiveness” talk is a canard—one that justifies misguided policies, such as subsidies for green technology, and diverts attention from the country’s real to-do list.High on that list is sorting out America’s public finances. The budget deficit is huge and public debt, at over 90% of GDP when measured in an internationally comparable manner, is high and rising fast. Apart from Japan, America is the only big rich economy that does not have a plan for getting its public finances under control. The good news is that politicians are at last paying attention: deficit reduction is just about all anybody talks about in Washington, DC, these days. The bad news—and the second reason for gloom about what the politicians are up to—is that neither party is prepared to make the basic compromises that are essential to a deal. Republicans refu se to accept that taxes will have to rise, Democrats that spending on “entitlements” such as health care and pensions must fall. No real progress is likely until after the 2012 presidential election. And the antagonism of today’s deficit debate may even ha rm the economy, as Republicans push for excessive cuts in next year’s budget.When growth doesn’t bring jobsMeanwhile, the biggest dangers lie in an area that politicians barely mention: the labour market. The recent decline in the jobless rate has been misleading, the result of a surprisingly small growth in the workforce (as discouraged workers drop out) as much as fast job creation. A stubborn 46% of America’s jobless, some 6m people, have been out of work for more than six months. The weakness of the recovery is mostly to blame, but there are signs that America may be developing a distinctly European disease: structural unemployment.Youth unemployment is especially high, and joblessness among the young leaves lasting scars. Strong productivity growth has been achieved partly through the elimination of many mid-skilled jobs. And what makes this all the more worrying is that, below the radar screen, America had employment problems long before the recession, particularly for lesser-skilled men. These were caused not only by sweeping changes from technology and globalisation, which affect all countries, but also by America’s habit of locking up large numbers of young black men, which drastically diminishes their future employment prospects. America has a smaller fraction of prime-age men in work and in the labour force than any other G7 economy. Some 25% of men aged 25-54 with no college degree, 35% of high-school dropouts and almost 70% of black high-school dropouts are not working.Beyond the toll to individuals, the lack of work among less-skilled men could have huge fiscal and social consequences. The cost of disability payments is some $120 billion (almost 1% of GDP) and rising fast. Male worklessness has been linked with lower marriage rates and weakening family bonds.All this means that grappling with entrenched joblessness deserves to be far higher on America’s policy agenda. Unfortunately, the few (leftish) politicians who acknowledge the problem tend to have misguided solutions, such as trade barri ers or industrial policy to prop up yesterday’s jobs or to spot tomorrow’s. That won’t work: government has a terrible record at picking winners. Instead, America needs to get its macro-medicine right, in particular by committing itself to medium-term fiscal and monetary stability without excessive short-term tightening. But it also needs job-marketreforms, from streamlining and upgrading training to increasing employers’ incentives to hire the low-skilled. And there, strange as it may seem, America could learn from Europe: the Netherlands, for instance, is a good model for how to overhaul disability insurance. Stemming the decline in low-skilled men’s work will also demand more education reform to boost skills, as well as a saner approach to drugs and imprisonment.Technology and globalisation are remaking labour markets across the rich world, to the relative detriment of the lower-skilled. That’s why a rosier outlook for America’s economy does not necessarily mean a rosy future for all Americans. Mr Obama and his opponents can help to shape the process. Sadly, they are doing so for the worse rather than the better.美国的经济怎么了？——它的政客们都未能解决国家的真正的问题。
ECONOMIST电子版
10-21deception骗局,诡计,欺骗,欺诈wriggle v. 蠕动,蜿蜒前进,~out of 避免theocracy神权政体,神政,神治国θi'?kr?siWHO would have thought thatrun diplomatic circlesIt doesn't take a fevered brain to assume thatget one's hands on把...弄到手bombIran's claim that its nuclear programme is entirely peaceful is widely disbelieved. spoke out v. 大声地说(大胆地说出)painstaking n. 辛苦,苦心,工夫a. 辛苦的,勤勉的,小心的unravel阐明,解释,解开five painstaking years of diplomacy have abruptly unraveled. debacle解冻,崩溃dei'bɑ:klclandestine a. 秘密的[kl鎛'destin work on nuclear warheadspull the rug from under vt. 拆台(破坏计划) the diplomacyslap . 拍击,侮辱,申斥n侮辱,拍击声ad. 正面地,直接地,突然地wrist腕,腕关节a mild slap on the wristeconomic screwcrusade v. 干改革运动,加入十字军confound v. 使混淆,使狼狈set his house in order vi. 进行内部整顿(进行改革)receive a clean bill of health 无疫证书(无罪的证明书)misconstrue v. 误解,曲解deliberately ad. 故意地sniff out发现, 寻找；调查live like cat and dog整天吵架agree like cats and dogs完全合不来；像猫和狗一样合不来posse(为追捕罪犯而组成的)民防团vindication洗冤,证实vindi'kei??nclaiming a double vindicationpur v. 咕噜咕噜叫, 发出喉音travesty v. 使...滑稽化a travesty of justice对正义的歪曲argument is a travesty嘲弄in full daylight在大白天in defiance of违抗,无视UN resolutionswithout any fuss担心，大惊小怪,小题大作v. 无事自扰,焦急,焦燥gloss over掩饰the many unanswered questionslame duck无用的人, 投机者coyly ad. 害羞地, 羞怯地coy k?i]腼典的,怕羞的,羞怯的, 吞吞吐吐dreadful consequencesdeterrence挽留的事物,妨碍物keep you from harm!免受伤害have a card up one's sleeve v. 秘而不宣的计划（意图）, 锦囊妙计brush aside不理,不顾America's offer of talksrider骑士,附件,扶手drop that riderfetish神物(偶像,迷信,盲目崇拜的东西)accountability有责任,有义务dropped criminal proceedings against himReforming global rules is an appealing idea. But cleaning up domesti c regulation is as importantcatastrophe大灾难,大祸k?'t鎠tr?fi]heal v. 痊愈,使...复原,和解worst financial crisis“early warning systemhead off vt. 阻止(阻拦,绕道前进) financial turbulencepolitical heavyweightsresort vi. 求助于或诉诸某事物; 采取某手段或方法应急或作为对策n. 1 求助, 凭借, 诉诸2 求助[凭借]的对象; 采用的办法3 度假胜地results were modest.distil v. 蒸馏, 提取....的精华lessons from the subprime messresilient弹回的,有弹力的,愉快的more resilient against financial turmoilheed v. 注意到,留心到That is a lesson politicians should now heedvying a. 竞争的vi. 竞争vie v.竞争vai for supremacy至高,主权;优势boil down to a. 简化为(归结为) a straight fight betweenmanagerial vim n. 精力,生气,精神10-23physical infrastructure物质基础设施(0)intermediate technology中间技术afflict v. 使苦恼,折磨was afflicted with患了病/was afflicted with conscience受良心责备price inflation物价膨胀intertwined search-and-advertising marketethnic cleansing种族清洗bloodshed流血事件be forced to accept a fait accompli既成事实'feit ɑ:'k?:mpli10-26It also witnessed a pivotal momentreel vi. 眩晕,蹒跚left the state reelingphysical infrastructure物质基础设施(0)intermediate technology中间技术afflict v. 使苦恼,折磨was afflicted with患了病/was afflicted with conscience受良心责备price inflation物价膨胀intertwined search-and-advertising marketethnic cleansing种族清洗bloodshed流血事件be forced to accept a fait accompli既成事实'feit ɑ:'k?:mpli10-26It also witnessed a pivotal momentreel vi. 眩晕,蹒跚left the state reelingphysical infrastructure物质基础设施(0)intermediate technology中间技术afflict v. 使苦恼,折磨was afflicted with患了病/was afflicted with conscience受良心责备price inflation物价膨胀intertwined search-and-advertising marketethnic cleansing种族清洗bloodshed流血事件be forced to accept a fait accompli既成事实'feit ɑ:'k?:mpli10-26It also witnessed a pivotal momentreel vi. 眩晕,蹒跚left the state reelingantagonize 使...对抗(反对,起反作用tailor-made 很适合；度身打造generous assumptions about the economy's strengthenvision v. 想象,预想set aside撇开(不顾,取消,放弃,保留) $70 billion to finance the war on terrorballooning非法操纵价格entitlementhealthoutlay费用,经费,支出v. 花费slashing payments to health-careinsolvency破产thrown into the shade v. 使逊色(使相形见绌,使黯然无光)sb dropped out of the racequixotica. 唐吉诃德式的, 狂想家的;不切实际的；is loathed by the business establishmentcalls for a constitutional ban on abortion and homosexual marriage. put mo re emphasis on poverty, in a bid to win Mr Edwards's votersconservative populists 老保守派和民粹人士咬紧牙关gritted her teethgiving immigrants the right to earn citizenshipThere is good reason for thinking充足的理由exacerbate vt. 加重(使...恶化,激怒)The economy is sputtering. Employmentis faltering. House prices are dipping.been showered with大量给予；备受称赞dancer was showered with praise redesign a city's bus services from scratch从头开始；peasant agriculture农民经济show little inclination to reproduceoffspring子孙,后代,产物head to the citiesprecarious不确定的,危险的pri'k??ri?stedious沉闷的, 单调乏味的rural bliss is precarious, isolated, and tedious.opt for wage employmenttheir mode of production is ill suited to modern agricultural production,private provision私营化；私人提供public provision公共提供consumer food fashions are fast-changing and best met by integrated marketing chains leery 机敏的,细心的；戒心been leery of commercial agricultureenclosure movement圈地运动agricultural innovation is highly sensitive to local conditionsbenefits are not fully captured by the innovatorsremarkable example the time between harvesting one crop and planting the next --dow ntime for landout-growing," or "contract farmingschool district has long struggled to close the gaprecycling bin废纸篓antagonize 使...对抗(反对,起反作用tailor-made 很适合；度身打造generous assumptions about the economy's strengthenvision v. 想象,预想set aside撇开(不顾,取消,放弃,保留) $70 billion to finance the war on terror ballooning非法操纵价格entitlementhealthoutlay费用,经费,支出v. 花费slashing payments to health-careinsolvency破产thrown into the shade v. 使逊色(使相形见绌,使黯然无光)sb dropped out of the racequixotica. 唐吉诃德式的, 狂想家的;不切实际的；is loathed by the business establishmentcalls for a constitutional ban on abortion and homosexual marriage. put more emphasis on poverty, in a bid to win Mr Edwards's votersconservative populists 老保守派和民粹人士咬紧牙关gritted her teethgiving immigrants the right to earn citizenshipThere is good reason for thinking充足的理由exacerbate vt. 加重(使...恶化,激怒)The economy is sputtering. Employmentis faltering. House prices are dipping.been showered with大量给予；备受称赞dancer was showered with praiseredesign a city's bus services from scratch从头开始；took little account of passengers' habits.approval rating支持率attorney-general检察长superb responsiveness of the market to price signalsbe a swift impact on pricesdoing away with the U.S. subsidies onready market现成的市场find a ready market在日本销路很好~not so sensitive to political interferenceIt would also facilitate the localized adaptation of new varieties有利于适应本地化的新品种。
《计量经济学》第三版例题stata解答
第二章例2.1．1(p24)（1）表2.1.2中E(Y|X=800)即条件均值的求法，将数据直接复制到stata 中。
程序： sum y if x==800程序：程序：（2）图2.1.1的做法：程序：twoway(scatter y x )(lfit y x ),title("不同可支配收入水平组家庭消费支出的条件分布图")xtitle("每月可支配收入（元）")ytitle("每月消费支出（元）")xtick(500(500)4000)ytick(0(500)3500)例2.3．1（p37）将数据直接复制到stata 中程序：（1）total xiyireturn listscalars:r(skip) = 0r(first) = 1r(k_term) = 0r(k_operator) = 0r(k) = 0r(k_level) = 0r(output) = 1r(b) = 4974750r(se) = 1507820.761894463g a=r(b) in 1 total xi2 xiyi 4974750 1507821 1563822 8385678Total Std. Err. [95% Conf. Interval]Scatter 表示散点图选项，lfit 表示回归线，title 表示题目，xtick 表示刻度，（500（500）4000）分别表示起始刻度，中间数表示以单位刻度，4000表示最后的刻度。
要注意的是命令中的符号都要用英文字符，否则命令无效。
return listg b=r(b) in 1di a/b.67(2)mean Yigen m=r(b) in 1mean Xig n=r(b) in 1di m-n*0.67142.4由此得到回归方程：Y=142.4+0.67Xi例2.6．2(p53)程序：（1）回归reg y x（2）求X的样本均值和样本方差:mean xMean estimation Number of obs = 31 Mean Std. Err. [95% Conf. Interval] x 11363.69 591.7041 10155.27 12572.11sum x ,d（d表示detail的省略，这个命令会产生更多的信息）xPercentiles Smallest1% 8871.27 8871.275% 8920.59 8920.5910% 9000.35 8941.08 Obs 3125% 9267.7 9000.35 Sum of Wgt. 3150% 9898.75 Mean 11363.69Largest Std. Dev. 3294.46975% 12192.24 16015.5890% 16015.58 18265.1 Variance 1.09e+0795% 19977.52 19977.52 Skewness 1.69197399% 20667.91 20667.91 Kurtosis 4.739267di r(Var)（特别注意Var的大小写）10853528例2.6.2（P56）（1）reg Y XSource SS df MS Number of obs = 29F( 1, 27) = 2214.60Model 2.4819e+09 1 2.4819e+09 Prob > F = 0.0000Residual 30259023.9 27 1120704.59 R-squared = 0.9880Adj R-squared = 0.9875 Total2.5122e*************.8RootMSE=1058.6Y Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval]X .4375268 .0092973 47.06 0.000 .4184503 .4566033_cons 2091.295 334.987 6.24 0.000 1403.959 2778.632（2）图2.6.1的绘制：twoway (line Y X year),title("中国居民可支配总收入X与消费总支出Y 的变动图")第三章例3.2.2（p72）reg Y X1 X2Source SS df MS Number of obs = 31F( 2, 28) = 560.57Model 166971988 2 83485994.2 Prob > F = 0.0000Residual 4170092.27 28 148931.867 R-squared = 0.9756Adj R-squared = 0.9739Total 171142081 30 5704736.02 Root MSE = 385.92Y Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval]X1 .5556438 .0753076 7.38 0.000 .4013831 .7099046X2 .2500854 .1136343 2.20 0.036 .0173161 .4828547_cons 143.3266 260.4032 0.55 0.586 -390.0851 676.7383例3.5．1（p85）g lnP1=ln(P1)g lnP0=ln(P0)g lnQ=ln(Q)g lnX=ln(X)Source SS df MS Number of obs = 22 F( 3, 18) = 258.84 Model .765670868 3 .255223623 Prob > F = 0.0000 Residual .017748183 18 .00098601 R-squared = 0.9773 Adj R-squared = 0.9736 Total .783419051 21 .037305669 Root MSE = .0314 lnQ Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval]lnX .5399167 .0365299 14.78 0.000 .4631703 .6166631 lnP1 -.2580119 .1781856 -1.45 0.165 -.632366 .1163422 lnP0 -.2885609 .2051844 -1.41 0.177 -.7196373 .1425155 _cons 5.53195 .0931071 59.41 0.000 5.336339 5.727561 drop lnX lnP1 lnP0g lnXP0=ln(X/P0)g lnP1P0=ln(P1/P0)reg lnQ lnXP0 lnP1P0Source SS df MS Number of obs = 22F( 2, 19) = 408.93Model .765632331 2 .382816165 Prob > F = 0.0000Residual .01778672 19 .000936143 R-squared = 0.9773Adj R-squared = 0.9749Total .783419051 21 .037305669 Root MSE = .0306lnQ Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval]lnXP0 .5344394 .0231984 23.04 0.000 .4858846 .5829942lnP1P0 -.2753473 .1511432 -1.82 0.084 -.5916936 .040999_cons 5.524569 .0831077 66.47 0.000 5.350622 5.698515练习题13（p105）g lnY=ln(Y)g lnK=ln(K)g lnL=ln(L)reg lnY lnK lnLSource SS df MS Number of obs = 31 F( 2, 28) = 59.66 Model 21.6049266 2 10.8024633 Prob > F = 0.0000 Residual 5.07030244 28 .18108223 R-squared = 0.8099 Adj R-squared = 0.7963 Total 26.6752291 30 .889174303 Root MSE = .42554 lnY Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval]lnK .6092356 .1763779 3.45 0.002 .2479419 .9705293 lnL .3607965 .2015915 1.79 0.084 -.0521449 .7737378 _cons 1.153994 .7276114 1.59 0.124 -.33645 2.644439第四章例4.1．4 (P116)（1）回归g lnY=ln(Y)g lnX1=ln(X1)g lnX2=ln(X2)reg lnY lnX1 lnX2Source SS df MS Number of obs = 31 F( 2, 28) = 49.60 Model 2.9609923 2 1.48049615 Prob > F = 0.0000 Residual .835744123 28 .029848004 R-squared = 0.7799 Adj R-squared = 0.7642 Total 3.79673642 30 .126557881 Root MSE = .17277 lnY Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval]lnX1 .1502137 .1085379 1.38 0.177 -.072116 .3725435 lnX2 .4774534 .0515951 9.25 0.000 .3717657 .5831412 _cons 3.266068 1.041591 3.14 0.004 1.132465 5.39967于是得到方程：lnY=3.266+0.1502lnX1+0.4775lnX2（2）绘制参差图：predict e, residg ei2=e^2scatter ei2 lnX2,title("图4.1.3 异方差性检验图")xtick(6(0.4)9.2)ytick(0(0.04)0.24)predict在回归结束后，需要对拟合值以及残差进行分析，需要使用此命令。
GMAT备考：《经济学人》The Economist常用词汇总结(9)
GMAT备考：《经济学人》The Economist常用词汇总结(9)211、管理(或非浮动)价格Administered(or inflexible) prices特指某类价格的术语。
按照有关规定，这类价格在某一段时间内、在若干种交易中能够维持不变。
(见价格浮动，price flexibility)212、逆向选择Adverse selection一种市场不灵。
指的是这样一种情况，即那些遭遇风险机会最多的人，最容易决定购买保险。
推而广之，逆向选择指的是这样一种情况：就某产品而言，买方和卖方所掌握的信息不同。
比如旧车市场。
213、总需求Aggregate demand某一时期一个经济所计划或所需要开支的总数。
它取决于总的价格水平，并受到国内投资、净出口、政府开支、消费水平和货币供应等因素的影响。
214、总需求曲线Aggregate demand(AD)curve在其他条件不变的情况下，体现一个经济中人们所愿意购买的商品和服务的总量与该经济的价格总水平之间的关系的曲线。
同其他需求曲线一样，总需求曲线背后也存在着一系列重要的经济变量，如政府开支、出口和货币供应，等等。
215、总供给Aggregate supply某一时期一个经济中各企业所愿意生产的商品与服务的价值的总和。
总供给是可供利用的资源、技术和价格水平的函数。
216、总供给曲线Aggregate supply(AS)curve在其他条件不变的情况下，体现各企业所愿意提供的总产出与价格总水平之间的关系的曲线。
总供给曲线在很长时期内，在潜在产出水平L，倾向于相对地陡峭和垂直;而从短期看，则显得比较平缓。
217、配置效率Allocative efficiency一种经济境况。
一个经济到达该境况时，已经不可能通过重组或贸易等手段，既提高某一人的效用或满足程度，而又不降低其他人的效用或满足程度。
从某种意义上讲，完全竞争可以导致配置效率。
配置效率又称为帕累托效率(Paretoefficiency)。
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Title:
[2012.11.10]Old-fashioned but in favour
Germany’s banking system
Old-fashioned but in favour
Defending the three pillars
V olume:
Nov 10th 2012 | BERLIN | from the print edition
Summary:
Content restructuring:
Germany is the biggest economy and the situation lasts for several decades. The bank system seems not very effective and reasonable. Apart from some big banks, a large group of lending banks are parochial but not international. Germany’s bank system looks like antiquated, which doesn’t match the status of the country in Europe. But now, it turns out not that lagging.
All of saving banks and cooperative banks came through the financial crisis safely. These two types of banks are considered as two of three pillars in Germany. They formed such a joint system that no one in it would go bankrupt.
Their business is mainly providing service for the public rather than for shareholders. This model is suitable to their clients, who are small companies. This argument is confirmed by their loan record. Saving banks and cooperative banks changed expand their business of mid-term and long-term loans. Private Banks in turn reduced their same business.
Not everything runs well in Germany’s bank. Banks of German states made a loss by purchasing toxic structured credit products. At the same time, they invested more into some fields that they were not good at. Their unreasonable strategy is responsible for their failure. The similar things happened on Westdeutsche Landesbank, which is thought the most ambitious bank. It had to pay for its public owners at a cost of 21 billion euro. On the other hand, the private banks are not performing satisfyingly.
The ten biggest banks focus more on their domestic business. They have to face competitions in euro zone. Germany’s banks have not many advantages because of their large scale but short capital funds
Comment:
After the global crisis in 2008 and following European crisis, banks around the world are facing challenges. Germany’s banks performed well in crisis because of their old system. They focused on more on domestic business rather than international affairs. That’s why Germany’s banks are less influenced by European crisis. However, it is not a long-term strategy if Germany’s bank wants to survive in future. Recent trend for today’s banks is globalization, at least regionalization. As long as a bank expands its business in more regions it has more possibility for surviving.
Although banks take attracting deposits and issuing loans as major businesses, they still need to manage their funds in some new fields. Banks need to be brave enough
do more financial affairs. Avoiding deficit, selecting investment and property is important. Some Germany’s banks made a loss in toxic property. For that result, banks need to optimize their employment system. Hiring employees with international view instead of only relying on domestic employees is necessary.
In order to avoiding deficit, Germany’s banks should always aim to diversify property. That is to say, do not only raise funds by savings and bonds. Issuing different financial derivatives make funds safer.。