Dubai迪拜经济复苏

Dubai’s renaissance
Edifice complex
The Gulf emirate is as flashy as ever, but it still has structural problems to solve
Jan 5th 2013 | DUBAI |From the print edition
DUBAI doesn’t do discreet. The emirate welcomed in the new year with a huge fireworks display that engulfed the Burj Khalifa, t he world’s tallest building, in time to a live
performance by the Prague Philharmonic Orchestra. In a video that runs in the Burj
Khalifa’s visitors’ centre, an executive at Emaar, the developer behind the skyscraper,
explains why it had to go that high: “You have to do something impossible, otherwise you’ll be like any other company, or person. We have to grow higher and higher—grow like
Dubai.”
The emirate’s latest wheeze is to create a city within the city, a development bigger than anything that has gone before. Mohammed bin Rashid (MBR) City will feature more than 100 hotels, the Middle East’s largest entertainment centre, a park bigger than London’s Hyde Park and the world’s biggest shopping mall, appropriately named “Mall of the
World”.
Plans for the supersized project, named after Dubai’s ruler, were unveiled in November and are meant to signal that Dubai is back in business only three years after a near-death experience. In late 2009 Dubai World, a big government-controlled investment firm, announced it could no longer repay its debts, threatening to bring down the entire economy. The emirate was bailed out by Abu Dhabi, an oil-rich fellow-member of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and the UAE’s central bank.
Dubai has come a long way since then. The IMF estimates that GDP was up by 4.1% in the first half of 2012 compared with the same period of 2011. Trade, transport and tourism are buoyant. Imports of food and vehicles rose by 20% in the first half of 2012; in the year to August the number of passengers at Dubai International Airport was up by nearly 14%; and occupancy rates of Dubai’s hotels reach 80%, among the world’s highest. The property market is showing signs of renewed exuberance. In September Emaar put a
63-storey tower with 542 flats on the market and sold them all on the first day.
But Dubai is more than a story of skyscrapers built on sand with borrowed cash. Because the emirate’s oil reserves were limited, its rulers decided decades ago to diversify. Emirates Airline is the best-known result of this strategy: it started in 1985 and now ranks among the world’s leading carriers. The Jebel Ali Free Zone is one of the world’s biggest transit ports and the Dubai International Financial Centre the Middle East’s financial hub.
This role as a regional hub—and a policy of being open to almost any kind of business—explains why Dubai has been, at least economically, the main beneficiary of the Arab spring. Instability in the rest of the region has diverted capital, commerce and people to the emirate. When neighbouring Saudi Arabia upped its social spending to
pre-empt protests, for instance, much of the cash ended up in Dubai’s shopping malls. More important, the emirate has clearly established itself as the region’s safe haven. “Dubai has created an environment where companies and expatriates want to be based,” says Monica Malik of EFG Hermes, an investment bank.
Yet the renaissance masks continuing problems. During the property frenzy, developers piled up debt as if there were no tomorrow. This was particularly true of those controlled by the three government-related holding companies known collectively as Dubai Inc: Dubai World, Investment Corporation of Dubai and Dubai Holding. Even now it is not clear how much debt was amassed. The IMF estimates that the government and related entities still owe $130 billion, about as much as Dubai’s GDP.
To deal with the debt pile Dubai has pursued what Ahmad Alanani of Exotix, an investment bank that specialises in distressed debt, dubs its “four Bs strategy”. The government bailed out bondholders, who were paid back fully and on time; as a result, the emirate has preserved its access to the capital markets and credit-default spreads have come down steadily (see chart). And Dubai burned the banks, which had financed much of the emirate’s property boom. More than two-thirds of $34 billion in troubled bank loans to Dubai Inc has now been restructured on tough terms: on average, maturities were stretched out by five years and interest rates cut to 2%.
The decision to target the banks reflects the fact that they were less likely to walk away than bondholders. International banks are wary of risking their relationships not just in Dubai, but in the entire region. Only four foreign banks have taken legal action. Any ruling could probably be enforced only against assets abroad: a Dubai court has to confirm the decision and is likely to declare any assets in the emirate off-limits. Local banks have even less freedom of manoeuvre. The government has big stakes in most lenders (56% in the case of Emirates NDB, Dubai’s largest).
It would be one thing if asset values recovered enough to allow the developers to repay their debts. But markets expect another round of restructuring on the renegotiated loans. Dubai World’s debt, for instance, trades for about 50 cents on the dollar. Crunch time will come in 2014 and 2015 when Dubai Inc has to repay bank loans of $8.4 billion and $7.9 billion respectively, according to IMF estimates. “Foreign banks won’t accept the same sort of treatment in a second round,” says Mr Alanani.
The recovery in property is confined to small segments of the market, says Craig Plumb of Jones Lang LaSalle, a consultancy. A project like MBR City concentrates on areas where demand is strong: luxury housing, shopping and entertainment. Other assets are still performing sluggishly. Even as the economy rebounds the proportion of non-performing loans at Dubai’s largest banks has kept rising. Moody’s, a ratings agency, downgraded three of them in December and put another on notice for a downgrade. That suggests
money for new developments will be hard to come by. Some doubt that MBR City will find it easy to finance itself.
Behind the question of whether Dubai could relapse lurks a bigger one: whether it needs to change its growth model. Before the crash, it grew mainly by sucking in capital, resources, ideas and people. As a result less than 10% of Dubai’s working-age population are nationals, or “Emiratis”.
Such an input-driven model is not sustainable, argues Farouk Soussa of Citigroup. Leaving aside the environmental issues, even Dubai can build only so many MBR Cities. Eit her the emirate’s rulers accept that it can grow over the long term only as fast as its core sectors of trade, transport and tourism—meaning in line with global growth—or Dubai needs to build a new engine of expansion.
The government seems to recognise this, and is pushing its credentials as an entrepreneurial hub. In December, for instance, it hosted a “Global Entrepreneurship Summit”. MBR City will include a “world-class technology campus”. But Dubai has been slow to create a helpful legal infrastructure for start-ups. It still has no bankruptcy law, meaning entrepreneurs that fail risk going to jail. Even a single bounced check can land you behind bars for three years. With few rights, expats have no incentive to create something new. Dubai needs to do more institution-building, to go with the actual building.
From the print edition: Finance and economics
【导读】迪拜三年前经历了一场危机，可谓与“死神”擦肩而过。

如今，迪拜决定斥巨资打造拉希德城（MBR City），创世界之最。

它的经济是真正复苏了吗？
Dubai’s rena issance
迪拜的复兴
Edifice complex
大厦情结
The Gulf emirate is as flashy as ever, but it still has structural problems to solve
波斯湾的酋长国【1】繁华依旧，但它仍需解决结构性问题
Jan 5th 2013 | DUBAI | from the print edition
2013.01.05 | 迪拜| 印刷版
DUBAI doesn’t do discreet. The emirate welcomed in the new year with a huge fireworks display that engulfed the Burj Khalifa, the world’s tallest building, in time to a live performance by the Prague Philharmonic Orchestra. In a video that runs in the Burj Khalifa’s visitors’ centre, an executive at Emaar, the developer behind the skyscraper, explains why it had to go that high: “You have t o do something impossible, otherwise you’ll be like any other company, or person. We have to grow higher and higher—grow like Dubai.”
迪拜（Dubai）【2】才不谨慎低调。

这个酋长国为了迎接新年，举办了一场盛大的烟花汇演【3】，给世界最高建筑——哈利法塔（Burj Khalifa）【4】披上了一层烟花的外衣；同时，还有布拉格爱乐乐团（Prague Philharmonic Orchestra）【5】现场演奏助兴。

在哈利法塔游客中心播放的一段视频中，依玛尔（Emaar）【6】（该摩天大楼的开发商）的一名主管人员解释了大楼盖这么高的原因：“你必须创造奇迹，否则就和别的公司、别的人没什么两样。

我们必须建得越来越高，变得越来越强大——就像迪拜一样。

”
The emirate’s latest wheeze is to create a city within the city, a development bigger than anything that has gone before. Mohammed bin Rashid (MBR) City will feature more than 100 hotels, the Middle East’s largest entertainment centre, a park bigger than London’s Hyde Park and the world’s biggest shopping mall, appropriately named “Mall of the World”.
迪拜酋长国最近的计划是要打造一个“城中之城”，规模比之前的一切项目都要大。

穆罕默德•本•拉希德城（Mohammed bin Rashid City/ MBR城）【7】的特色在于，它将拥有100家以上的酒店、一座中东地区最大的娱乐中心、一个比伦敦海德公园（London’s Hyde Park）【8】面积还大的公园，还有一个全球最大的“世界购物中心”——名字倒是当之无愧。

Plans for the supersized project, named after Dubai’s ruler, were unveiled in November and are
meant to signal that Dubai is back in business only three years after a near-death experience. In late 2009 Dubai World, a big government-controlled investment firm, announced it could no longer repay its debts, threatening to bring down the entire economy. The emirate was bailed out by Abu Dhabi, an oil-rich fellow-member of the United Arab Emirates (UAE)【1】, and the UAE’s central bank.
这个超级项目以迪拜酋长命名，于去年11月公布了它的各项计划。

这就等于发出了一个信号——在与“死神”擦肩而过后，仅三年时间，迪拜的商业就复苏了。

2009年年底，大型国有控股投资公司迪拜世界（Dubai World）【9】宣布，它再无能力偿还自己的债务。

整个经济将因此下滑。

当时，是阿联酋（United Arab Emirates / UAE）一个石油资源丰富的成员国——阿布达比（Abu Dhabi），以及阿联酋央行为其纾困。

Dubai has come a long way since then. The IMF estimates that GDP was up by 4.1% in the first half of 2012 compared with the same period of 2011. Trade, transport and tourism are buoyant. Imports of food and vehicles rose by 20% in the first half of 2012; in the year to August the number of passengers at Dubai International Airport was up by nearly 14%; and occupancy rates of Dubai’s hotels reach 80%, among the world’s highest. The property market is showing signs of renewed exuberance. In September Emaar put a 63-storey tower with 542 flats on the market and sold them all on the first day.
自那以后，迪拜走过了漫漫长路。

据国际货币基金组织（IMF）估计，2012上半年其GDP 同比增长了4.1%。

贸易、运输和旅游业也很有起色。

2012上半年的食品、车辆进口增加了20%；截止八月，迪拜国际机场的乘客人数增加了近14%；而且迪拜各大酒店的入住率达到80%，位于世界顶级之列。

房地产市场有回暖的迹象。

九月，依玛尔旗下的一栋63层、含542套公寓的大楼开盘，当天就被抢购一空。

But Dubai is more than a story of skyscrapers built on sand with borrowed cash. Because the emirate’s oil reserves were limited, its rulers decided decades ago to diversify. Emirates Airline is the best-known result of this strategy: it start ed in 1985 and now ranks among the world’s leading carriers. The Jebel Ali Free Zone is one of the world’s biggest transit ports and the Dubai International Financial Centre the Middle East’s financial hub.
但迪拜的故事不仅仅只是借别人的钱，然后在沙地上盖起一幢幢摩天大楼。

由于这个酋长国石油储量有限，早在几十年前其统治者就决定要向多元化发展。

在该策略的指引下，最有名的成果要属阿联酋航空公司（Emirates Airline）：创立于1985年，如今已位于世界顶级航空公司之列。

杰拜勒•阿里自由区（Jebel Ali Free Zone）【10】成为了世界上最大的转运港之一，迪拜国际金融中心（Dubai International Financial Centre）【11】也变成中东的金融枢纽。

This role as a regional hub—and a policy of being open to almost any kind of business—explains why Dubai has been, at least economically, the main beneficiary of the Arab spring. Instability in the rest of the region has diverted capital, commerce and people to the emirate. When neighbouring Saudi Arabia upped its social spending to pre-empt protests, for instance, much of the cash ended up in Dubai’s shopping malls. More important, the emirate has clearly established itself as the region’s safe haven. “Dubai has created an environment where companies and
expatr iates want to be based,” says Monica Malik of EFG Hermes, an investment bank.
作为地区枢纽，迪拜对所有业务基本上都持“来者不拒”的政策——正是因为这样，它才成为阿拉伯之春（Arab Spring）的主要受益者，至少是在经济上。

由于其他地区动荡不安，资本、商业活动、人力就都转移到了该酋长国。

比如，邻国沙特阿拉伯（Saudi Arabia）为了阻止人民抗议，增加社会开支以先发制人，结果大部分资金都流入了迪拜的购物商场。

更重要的是，迪拜显然已经把自己打造成了该地区的安全港。

“在迪拜创造的环境下，企业和侨民会想到这里安家立户。

”投资银行埃及财团赫尔墨斯（EFG Hermes）的莫妮卡•马利克（Monica Malik）说道。

Yet the renaissance masks continuing problems. During the property frenzy, developers piled up debt as if there were no tomorrow. This was particularly true of those controlled by the three government-related holding companies known collectively as Dubai Inc: Dubai World, Investment Corporation of Dubai and Dubai Holding. Even now it is not clear how much debt was amassed. The IMF estimates that the government and related entities still owe $130 billion, about as much as Dubai’s GDP.
然而，这场复兴掩盖了一些一直存在的问题。

在楼市火爆期，开发商大肆举债，好像永远不用还债似的。

这是事实，而对于那三家与政府相关的控股公司——迪拜世界（Dubai World）、迪拜投资公司（Investment Corporation of Dubai）、迪拜控股（Dubai Holding）（统称为“迪拜公司”）旗下的企业，情况更是如此。

即便是现在，人们也还不清楚他们到底累积了多少债务。

IMF估计，政府与相关实体仍负债1300亿美元，几乎与迪拜的GDP持平。

To deal with the debt pile Dubai has pursued what Ahmad Alanani of Exotix, an investment bank that specialises in distressed deb t, dubs its “four Bs strategy”. The government b ailed out b ondholders, who were paid back fully and on time; as a result, the emirate has preserved its access to the capital markets and credit-default spreads have come down steadily (see chart). And Dubai b urned the b anks, which had financed much of the emirate’s property boom. More than two-thirds of $34 billion in troubled bank loans to Dubai Inc has now been restructured on tough terms: on average, maturities were stretched out by five years and interest rates cut to 2%.
为了处理积压的债务，迪拜已奉行了艾哈迈德•阿拉纳尼（Ahmad Alanani）所指的“4B计划”。

他来自依格卓迪克斯（Exotix）投资公司，该公司擅长处理不良债权的问题。

政府鼎力相助，准时返还了债券持有人的本金和利息。

如此一来，迪拜酋长国就可以继续进入资本市场，而且信用违约掉期费率（credit-default spreads）也稳步下降（见图表）。

而那些替本国地产热潮提供大部分融资的银行，在被迪拜耗尽财力后，却只能忍气吞声。

迪拜公司欠下的银行不良债务达340亿美元，其中2/3以上的债务现已重组，但条件十分苛刻：平均下来，债务偿还延期五年，利率降到2%。

The decision to target the banks reflects the fact that they were less likely to walk away than bondholders. International banks are wary of risking their relationships not just in Dubai, but in the entire region. Only four foreign banks have taken legal action. Any ruling could probably be enforced only against assets abroad: a Dubai court has to confirm the decision and is likely to declare any assets in the emirate off-limits. Local banks have even less freedom of manoeuvre. T he government has big stakes in most lenders (56% in the case of Emirates NDB, Dubai’s largest).
该决定将矛头指向银行，反映出这样一个事实：与债券持有人相比，他们“一走了事”的可能性会更小。

各个国际银行会谨慎处事，以防他们在迪拜、在整个区域的关系恶化。

只有四家外资银行采取了法律行动。

任何裁决可能都只适用于境外资产：因为裁决必须经过迪拜法庭的批准，而法庭可能会宣布其对国内资产一律无效。

本地银行的自主决策空间甚至更小。

对于大部分银行贷方来说，他们的多数股权都为政府所有（就迪拜最大的银行“阿联酋NDB （Emirates NDB）”而言，政府控股56%）。

It would be one thing if asset values recovered enough to allow the developers to repay their debts. But markets expect another round of restructuring on the renegotiated loans. Dubai World’s debt, for instance, trades for about 50 cents on the dollar. Crunch time will come in 2014 and 2015 when Dubai Inc has to repay bank loans of $8.4 billion and $7.9 billion respectively, according to IMF estimates. “Foreign banks won’t accept the same sort of treatment in a second round,” says Mr Alanani.
如果资产价格充分回升，让开发商有能力偿还债务，那是另一回事。

但市场期望的是，针对重新协议的债务再出台一轮重组计划。

比如，迪拜世界债券的交易价格目前是每美元50美分。

据IMF估计，2014年和2015年是关键时刻，因为那时迪拜公司必须分别偿还84亿、79亿美元的银行贷款。

“外资银行不会再接受同样的处理方法。

”阿拉纳尼先生说道。

The recovery in property is confined to small segments of the market, says Craig Plumb of Jones Lang LaSalle, a consultancy. A project like MBR City concentrates on areas where demand is strong: luxury housing, shopping and entertainment. Other assets are still performing sluggishly. Even as the economy rebounds the proportion of non-performing loans at Dubai’s largest banks has kept rising. Moody’s, a ratings agency, downgraded three of them in December and put another on notice for a downgrade. That suggests money for new developments will be hard to come by. Some doubt that MBR City will find it easy to finance itself.
咨询公司仲量联行（Jones Lang LaSalle）的克雷格•帕朗柏（Craig Plumb）表示，房地产的复苏局限在一小部分市场之内。

像“MBR城”这样的项目集中在需求强劲的领域：豪宅、购物和娱乐。

其他资产的上涨依旧乏力。

甚至在经济反弹期，迪拜各大银行的不良贷款比例仍在上升。

信用评级公司穆迪（Moody’s）于十二月份下调了迪拜三家银行的评级，并把另一家列入可能下调的观察名单之列。

这就暗示着新一轮发展会很难筹到资金。

有些人怀疑，MBR城的自身融资不会很容易。

Behind the question of whether Dubai could relapse lurks a bigger one: whether it needs to change its growth model. Before the crash, it grew mainly by sucking in capital, resources, ideas and people. As a result less than 10% of Dubai’s working-ag e population are nationals, or “Emiratis”.
在迪拜是否会重蹈覆辙的问题背后，隐藏着一个更大的问题：它是否需要改变增长模式？在经济危机之前，它的增长主要依靠资本、资源、理念和人力的输入。

结果导致在迪拜的适龄工作人口中，本国人，或者说“阿联酋人”——所占的比例不到10%。

Such an input-driven model is not sustainable, argues Farouk Soussa of Citigroup. Leaving aside th e environmental issues, even Dubai can build only so many MBR Cities. Either the emirate’s rulers accept that it can grow over the long term only as fast as its core sectors of trade, transport and tourism—meaning in line with global growth—or Dubai needs to build a new engine of expansion.
花旗银行（Citigroup）的法洛克•苏莎（Farouk Soussa）认为，这种输入型发展模式不具可持续性。

先不考虑环境因素，即便是迪拜也只能建这么多MBR城。

要么阿联酋统治者接受事实：它的长期增长速度只能与其核心产业——贸易、运输和旅游的保持一致——就等于与全球增长速度同步；要么，迪拜就需要打造一个新的扩张引擎。

The government seems to recognise this, and is pushing its credentials as an entrepreneurial hub. In December, for instance, it hosted a “Global Entrepreneurship Summit”. MBR City will include a “world-class technology campus”. But Dubai has been slow to create a helpful legal infrastructure for start-ups. It still has no bankruptcy law, meaning entrepreneurs that fail risk going to jail. Even a single bounced check can land you behind bars for three years. With few rights, expats have no incentive to create something new. Dubai needs to do more institution-building, to go with the actual building.
政府似乎意识到这一点，正以一个“创业中心”的形象向外界推销自己。

比如在十二月份，它举办了一个“全球创业峰会（Global Entrepreneurship Summit）”。

MBR城将包括一个“世界级的科技园”。

但在为创新企业创建有利于创业的法律基础设施方面，迪拜还慢了半拍。

它仍没有破产法，这就意味着破产的企业家可能会进监狱。

一张空头支票都可以把你送入监狱、服刑三年。

侨民的权利寥寥，也就不会有动力创新。

迪拜在体制建设上应多做些努力，这样才和实际的建筑相称。

from the print edition | Finance and economics
译者注：
【1】酋长国（Emirate）
现代酋长国是一般是指阿拉伯世界以酋长、部落首领为元首的国家。

这些国家19世纪成了英国的殖民地，现在都实现了独立。

阿拉伯联合酋长国（United Arab Emirates / UAE）
由七个酋长国组成：阿布扎比(英语：Abu Dhabi)、迪拜(Dubai)、沙迦(ash-Shariqah或Sharjah)、哈伊马角(Ras Al Khaimah)、阿治曼(Ajman)、富查伊拉(Fujairah)、乌姆盖万(Umm-al-Qaiwain)。

阿拉伯语为官方语言，通用英语。

居民大多信奉伊斯兰教，多数属逊尼派；在迪拜，什叶派占多数。

自1966年阿联酋发现石油以来，该国一跃成为世界最富裕的国家之一。

【2】迪拜（Dubai）
迪拜是阿拉伯联合酋长国人口最多的酋长国，从面积上计算是继阿布扎比之后第二大酋长国，迪拜与其他阿联酋的酋长国的不同处在于石油只占GDP的6%。

大多数的收入来自杰拜勒•阿里自由区，现在更多从旅游收入。

迪拜市是阿拉伯联合酋长国最大的城市，也是中东地区的经济和金融中心。

【3】迪拜新年烟花汇演优酷
【4】哈利法塔（Burj Khalifa Tower）
（原名迪拜塔，又称迪拜大厦或比斯迪拜塔）是韩国三星公司负责营造，位于阿拉伯联合酋长国迪拜的一栋有162层，总高828米的摩天大楼。

哈利法塔2004年9月21日开始动工，2010年1月4日竣工。

【5】拉格爱乐乐团（Prague Philharmonic Orchestra）
加勒比海盗的OST就是该乐团演奏的
【6】Emaar
Emaar公司是世界上最大的房地产公司之一，并且迅速发展拟成为上乘生活的缔造者。

作为总部在阿联酋迪拜的公开合股公司，Emaar在迪拜金融市场和道琼斯阿拉伯泰坦名单中榜上有名。

Emaar以骄人的业绩和公司的规模顺利晋级2007年金融时报世界500强。

【7】Mohammed bin Rashid（穆罕默德•本•拉希德）
穆罕默德•本•拉希德•阿勒马克图姆，系阿联酋前副总统兼总理、迪拜酋长马克图姆之弟。

2006年1月，马克图姆逝世，穆罕默德继任迪拜酋长，并就任阿联酋副总统兼总理，同时继续兼任国防部长。

迪拜官方打造成“艺术之都”7亿英镑造泰姬陵
【8】德公园（HYDE PARK）
是伦敦最知名的公园。

海德公园英国最大的皇家公园。

【9】迪拜世界（Dubai World）
迪拜危机
迪拜财政部2009年11月25日突然宣布，由政府持有的迪拜世界公司及旗下的房地产分支棕榈岛集团将推迟偿付数十亿美元的债务最少六个月，以便进行债务重组。

【10】迪拜杰拜勒•阿里自由区
杰拜勒•阿里自由区（Jebel Ali Free Zone，简称JAFZA）是迪拜规模最大、发展最快的自由区之一，其目标是成为中东的国际性商业中心。

JAFZA一直注重建立长期的客户关系，为客户提供世界一流的基础设施和增值服务，还提供社区生活休闲场所，以此铸造活跃兴旺的商业环境，为客户提供投资机会。

【11】迪拜国际金融中心（Dubai International Financial Centre）
【12】EFG-Hermes
Egyptian Financial Group。