第一季度投资银行与资本市场报告

Trading
95%
revenue as
percentage
of total
90%
revenues
1Q04
85%
80%
75%
70%
Trading Revenues 1Q04 versus 4Q03
DB
UBS
BS LB JPMC
MS
Citi
GS CSFB
ML
CF&A
30%
revenue as
percentage
Sources: Company reports, BCG analysis
Q1 2004 Market Report-BR-TM-NYC-24May04.ppt
-6-
REVENUES WERE ALSO SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER THAN IN THE FIRST QUARTER 2003
Source: Company reports, BCG analysis
Q1 2004 Market Report-BR-TM-NYC-24May04.ppt
-4-
TRADING VOLUMES INCREASED IN FIRST QUARTER 2004
$B 150
Corporate Bond Origination
Note: We revised the BCG IB performance index this quarter and now calculate it based on aggregate profits of the top10 leading banks.
All previous numbers were restated accordingly
of total revenues 25%
1Q04
Ø: 80.3%
20% BS 15%
Corporate Finance/ Advisory Revenues 1Q04 versus 4Q03
MS Citi
CSFB ML JPMC GS
LB UBS
10% DB
Ø: 18.6%
65% 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0
Ø +50.5%
Revenues ($B)
5%
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
ຫໍສະໝຸດ Baidu
1Q04
Revenues
4Q03
Ø-1.4%
($B)
Note: Trading and corporate finance revenues don‘t add up to 100 percent because of “other” revenue
BCG investment banking performance index climbed 40 points to a record level of 127.6 in the first quarter 2004
Investment banking results were again supported by strong gains in fixed income trading while profit margins remained high
($B)
3.5
3.0
2.5
Broker
Q1/03 Ø: 43.7x Rev/VAR
Q1/04 Ø: 37.1x Rev/VAR
GS DB Citi
UBS
MS
JPMC
2.0
ML
LB CSFB
1.5
BS
1.0
Q1/04 Q1/03
0.5
0.0 0
25
50
Trader
75
100
125
150
Trading Value-At-Risk ($M)
Sources: Dealogic; SDC; FIBV; Federal Reserve Bank of New York; BCG analysis
Q1 2004 Market Report-BR-TM-NYC-24May04.ppt
-5-
LEADING INVESTMENT BANKS PRODUCED RECORD RESULTS IN THE FIRST QUARTER 2004
(1)
UBS reports value-at-risk in Swiss Francs at a 99% confidence interval over a one day observation period
Note: Value-at-risk is a generally accepted measure to calculate market risk exposure
100
50
0 1Q01
3Q01
1Q02
3Q02
1Q03
3Q03
1Q04
$B 600
M&A Advisory(1)
400
200
0 1Q01
3Q01
1Q02
3Q02
1Q03
3Q03
1Q04
$B 1000 800 600 400 200 0 1Q01
US Bond Trading(2)
3Q01 1Q02 3Q02 1Q03 3Q03
Q1/2004 versus Q4/2003
50% Pre-tax profit
margin (%)
40%
BS
30%
Ø +2.3%
20%
ML
MS LB
Citi JPMC
UBS GS
DB CSFB
Q1/04 Ø: 34.9% Q4/03 Ø: 32.7%
Q1/04 Q4/03
10%
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
Ø +25.6%
Revenues ($B)
Note: Ø calculated on a revenue weighted basis; operating revenue for investment banking and institutional sales and trading
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
Ø +36.5%
Revenues ($B)
Note: Ø calculated on a revenue-weighted basis; operating revenue for investment banking and institutional sales and trading
Q1 2004 Market Report-BR-TM-NYC-24May04.ppt
Page 2 10
14 21 26 33 38
-1-
Overview of First Quarter 2004
Q1 2004 Market Report-BR-TM-NYC-24May04.ppt
-2-
BANKS EARNED RECORD PROFITS IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2004
1Q04
$Tr 10
8
6
4
Asia US Europe
2
0 1Q01
3Q01
Equity Trading
1Q02 3Q02 1Q03
3Q03
1Q04
(1) Based on effective transactions
(2) Daily average trading volumes for treasuries, agencies, asset-/mortgage-backed securities (ABS/MBS), and corporate bonds
Note: We normalized reported VAR risk numbers to 99% confidence intervals over a 1 day observation period
Source: Company reports, BCG analysis
Q1 2004 Market Report-BR-TM-NYC-24May04.ppt
Q1/2004 versus Q1/2003
Pre-tax profit 50% margin (%)
40%
BS
Ø +3.8%
30%
20%
Citi JPMC
LB
ML
MS
GS
DB
UBS
CSFB
Q1/04 Ø: 34.9% Q1/03 Ø: 31.1%
Q1/04 Q1/03
10%
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
Sources: Company reports; BCG analysis
Q1 2004 Market Report-BR-TM-NYC-24May04.ppt
-8-
BANKS INCREASED MARKET RISK WITHIN THE LAST 12 MONTHS
Trading
4.0
Revenues
Chapter
Overview of First Quarter 2004 Global Investment-Banking Landscape Market Review
• Corporate Finance and Advisory • Fixed-Income • Equity Trading • FX Trading Data Definitions and Abbreviations
• Trading revenues for the top 10 players grew by 50 percent from last quarter • Profit margins of leading banks improved slightly to 35 percent on average
Index
BCG Investment Banking Performance Index
140
120 100.0
100 80.1
80
60
71.2 60.2
51.8
90.5 76.7
44.7 48.2
40
20
2001
2002
127.6 96.2
91.0 87.4
2003
0 1Q01 2Q01 3Q01 4Q01 1Q02 2Q02 3Q02 4Q02 1Q03 2Q03 3Q03 4Q03 1Q04
Banks increased their market risk levels significantly • UBS almost doubled its market risk from Swiss Francs 300m a quarter ago to Swiss Francs 518m(1) following its announcement in December last year to increase its acceptable Value-at-Risk(1) limits from 450m to 600m Swiss Francs “to take advantage of trading conditions” • JPMChase and Citigroup increased market risk considerably, however, the increase translated only into moderated trading revenue gains in the current quarter
Source: Company reports; BCG analysis
Q1 2004 Market Report-BR-TM-NYC-24May04.ppt
-7-
TRADING REVENUES IMPROVED BY 50 PERCENT
Accounting For Over 80 Percent Of Revenues
Source: Company reports, BCG analysis
Q1 2004 Market Report-BR-TM-NYC-24May04.ppt
-3-
BCG PERFORMANCE INDEX REACHED RECORD LEVELS IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2004
-9-
Global Investment-Banking Landscape
Q1 2004 Market Report-BR-TM-NYC-24May04.ppt
-10-
SEVERAL WINNERS IN THE 2003 INVESTMENT BANKING LANDSCAPE
INVESTMENT BANKING AND CAPITAL MARKETS
Market Report – First Quarter 2004 Edition
New York, Frankfurt May 24, 2004
THE BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP
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