美国总统大选电视辩论第三场

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美国总统选举演讲稿

美国总统选举演讲稿

美国总统选举演讲稿海不择细流,故能成其大。

山不拒细壤,方能就其高。

以下是店铺为你整理的2017美国总统选举演讲稿,希望大家喜欢!美国总统选举演讲稿(一)我已准备好做很多事。

很多事。

春季已至,我们开始整理花园,在我住的社区里,我种的西红柿可是个传奇。

我女儿明年就要上幼儿园了,所以我们准备搬家,为了让她上更好的学校。

我的兄弟和我正打算创业。

五年来我一直在养育自己的孩子,现在我要重返职场了。

每天,我们都在做着越来越充分准备来迎接儿子的诞生。

现在我提出工作申请。

我对毕业后即将面对的真实世界充满期待。

我今年夏天要结婚了--跟一个我非常在乎的人。

我要参演一个剧了,穿着鱼的服装。

小鱼鱼。

我很快就准备退休了。

退休意味着各个方面重塑你自身。

我们打算重新装修房子。

不过最重要的还是教会我们的狗别再吃垃圾了。

我们对2015年有很高的期待,它们会实现的。

我最近开始了一份新的事业这个。

这个第五代公司对我来说意义重大。

每个人都在为此努力工作,而成为其中一员感觉非常棒。

我也准备好了要做一些事情。

我要参加总统竞选。

美国已经从艰难的经济形势中恢复,但机遇仍然存在并青睐那些位于顶端的人。

每一天,美国都需要一个冠军,而我希望成为那个冠军。

所以,你可以做的更好,你可以领先并一直领先。

因为只要家庭繁荣,美国就会繁荣。

因此我需要你的选票,因为这是你的时代,我希望你能和我一起踏上征程。

美国总统选举演讲稿(二)我衷心感谢艾奥瓦的公民们。

众所周知,有人说这一天永远不会到来。

有人说我们好高骛远。

有人说人民异见纷呈,悲观失望,不可能再为了一个共同的目标而众志成城。

但在这个一月的夜晚,在这个书写历史的时刻,你们做到了那些愤世嫉俗的人断言我们做不到的事。

五天后新罕布什尔州的选民也将完成你们的壮举。

在刚刚来到的2008年,美国人民也会完成同样的壮举。

在学校和教堂,在小市镇和大城市,你们——民主党人、共和党人、无党派人士——熙熙攘攘地走到一起,自豪地宣称:我们是一个国家,我们是一个民族;变革的时刻已经到来。

肯尼迪与尼克松电视辩论及公共广播电视法案

肯尼迪与尼克松电视辩论及公共广播电视法案

1961年1月20日正式宣誓肯尼迪就任美国第三十五任总统
• 肯尼迪、尼克松开辟了电视辩论的时代 • 电视作为总统竞选政治活动中的决定性媒介立刻脱颖而出。
二、政客利用电视,推动电视的普及和推广
• 肯尼迪总统是第一位充分认识到电视的传播潜力, 并充分发挥电视功能的政治家,正如罗斯福总统 是第一位深谙广播魔力的领导人一样。 • 大约从20世纪50 年代中期开始电视新闻在美国开 始受人青睐,尤其在政治领域,比如总统竞选, 电视新闻的作用日趋显著。 • 1963年,在美国依靠电视了解新闻的人第一次超 过依靠报纸了解新闻的人,这是一个历史性转变, 标志电视新闻时代的到来。
英国 《 公共广播电视法案》
• • • • •
四部广播电视法案: 《1980年广播电视法案》、 《1981年广播电视法案》、 《1990年广播电视法案》、 《1996年广播电视法案》
关于《1996年广播电视法案》
• 背景:
• 英国《1996年广播电视法案》对《1990年广播电
视法案》的某些条款做了修订,其中最主要的内
• 介绍
• •
• • • •
肯尼迪、尼克松总统电视辩论
《 公共广播电视法案》
第十一小组组员:安嫩 何显丽 汪全艳 林晓伟
• 一、首次电视辩论的背景 • 二、政客利用电视,推动了电视的普及和 推广 • 三、美国大选中电视媒体的宣传功能
一、首次电视辩论的背景
• 1960年9月26日,在芝加哥、哥伦比亚广播公司的一个电 视直播间里,总统候选人尼克松和肯尼迪站在摄像机和聚 光灯前,进行了美国总统竞选历史上第一次电视辩论。
பைடு நூலகம்
三、 美国大选中电视媒体的宣传功能

在美国,人们倾向于通过看电视得到各式各样的信息。 因此,电视这一媒介就成了总统竞选的主要武器,并成为 候选人成功的关键。在竞选期间,候选人时刻铭记电视宣

美国总统大选第三场电视辩论

美国总统大选第三场电视辩论

MR. ROMNEY: Well, they sell us about this much stuff every year. And we sell them about this much stuff every year. So it's pretty clear who doesn't want a trade war. And there's one going on right now that we don't know about. It's a silent one and they're winning. We have an enormous trade imbalance with China. And it's worse this year than last year. And it was worse last year than the year before.
Now, with respect to what we've done with China already, U.S. exports have doubled, since I came into office, to China. And actually, currencies are at their most advantageous point for U.S. exporters since 1993. We absolutely have to make more progress, and that's why we're going to keep on pressing.
I was with one company that makes valves in -- in process industries. And they said, look, we were -- we were having some valves coming in that -- that were broken, and we had to repair them under warranty. And we looked them up, and -- and they had our serial number on them. And then we noticed that -- that there was more than one with that same serial number. They were counterfeit products being made overseas with the same serial number as a U.S. company, the same packaging. These were being sold into our market and around the world as if they were made by the U.S. competitor.

2012美国总统大选电视辩论中的非语言符号传播

2012美国总统大选电视辩论中的非语言符号传播

众 提问 , 呈现的是全 身的形象 。
1 、 目光 朝 向
尼克松 的选举辩 论 ,在 当时共 吸引 了约
6 6 0 0万 观 众 , 占美 国 人 口 的 3 6 . 8 %。 在 电
目光的接触 、 交流是信息得 以传递 的
重 要方 式 , 而 目光 的朝 向在 很 大 程 度 上 显
朝 向 主 持人 , 只在 最 后 阶段 对 奥 巴马 进 行 质疑时 , 正面朝向奥巴马。
们用发音器官说话 , 但我们用整个 身体交
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2 、 表 情、 情 绪
符 号 的 意 义 ,前 者 指 的 是 符 号 的 物 质 形
了一个关于符号传递信息 的公式 : 沟通 双 方相互理解 = 语调( 3 8 %) +表情 ( 5 5 %) +语 言 ( 7 %) , 表 明了非语言 符号在传 达 信息方面的作用。 借助 于大众传 媒呈现 的辩论 已经 超 越 了语言 、 逻辑 、 观点等 中心性 的内容 , 它 集合 了人际传播与大众传播 的情境 , 为观
奥 巴马 辩 驳 时 更 是 紧 盯 着 。 最 后 一 场 辩
息发 出者和信息 接受者 具有潜在 的信 息
价值”, 语 言符 号之外的符号 信息都可 以
被 称作 非 语 言 符 号 ,例 如 的两位候选人 分
别 是 民 主党 的奥 巴马 和共 和 党 的罗 姆 尼 ,
能 影 响 到 选 民的选 择 。 二、 2 0 1 2美 国 总 统 电 视 辩 论 中 的 非 语 言 符 号 呈 现
向讲 台, 很少用 眼光做 出 回应 ; 在 第二场
回答 现 场 观众 提 问 中 , 奥 巴马 更 多 地 面 向

【图文】2012年美国总统大选

【图文】2012年美国总统大选

【图文】2012年美国总统大选10-03总统候选人首场辩论10-03副总统候选人辩论10-03候选人第二场辩论10-03候选人第三场辩论11-06投票开始11-07北京时间11时投票结束2013-01-06参众两院宣布获胜者2013-01-20总统就职典礼滚动图片视频评论奥巴马成绩单谁是罗姆尼罗姆尼PK奥巴马特别报道直击大选结果统计12345看奥巴马如何被镜头“包装”新闻视频更多>>回顾:奥巴马执政的四年直击:奥巴马团队美国各州选情图更多>>11月6日,美国选民将投票选出新一届美国总统,目前大选正式进入投票阶段。

率先赢得270张选举人票者获胜。

图片万花筒更多>>时代封面上的国家表情美国总统从华盛顿到奥巴马,都是《时代周刊》封面上的常客,并形成一道独特的风景。

总统与狗| 选举中的巧合罗姆尼一家|秀场玩家奥巴马图表看大选更多>>社交媒体玩不转,大选难赢“早上起床时穿上裤子的回报是什么?我们不知道。

但我们知道,不这样做是不好的。

”2012年的竞选活动则已步入社交网站的深水区。

290票203票奥巴马获胜连任成功推特发文称“感谢” 评新华网最新快讯:美国总统奥巴马在11月6日(北京时间11月7日)举行的美国大选中获得超过270张选举人票,连任总统成定局。

[详细]策划:奥巴马的为官之道四年大考成绩单选民政治下,美国政界早已形成一套细致入微的为官“表演”之道,吃穿住行皆有讲究。

奥巴马,这个美国政界的“头号演员”有啥为官之道……[详细]奥巴马获胜消息美媒称奥巴马成功连任美总统将发表获胜演讲奥巴马笑谈《江南style》或私下给妻子跳(图)一个美国中产家庭大选投票:"当然是奥巴马"奥巴马在重要摇摆州获胜奠定胜选基础(图)一路上他这样走来第一任期内总统人生经历选情消息奥罗最后一刻转战网络社交媒体抢选票6成选民称最关注经济民调存“死穴” 选情变数大罗姆尼自曝只准备胜选演说奥巴马备好两份获胜演说选民不满:奥执政很糟罗姆尼被批“最为虚弱的诺言”大选花絮独家:奥巴马的秘诀会讲故事接地气擅抓民心奥巴马结束最后竞选活动回忆往昔泣不成声(图)4岁女童痛哭称受够美国大选网民盼早日结束奥巴马减少女儿曝光率两千金缺席最后拉票(图)小男孩与奥巴马合照时强吻女同学抢总统风头(图)分析评论秦升祺:奥巴马连任中国更有利大西洋周刊:为何共和党应对罗姆尼当总统心存恐惧华媒评美大选:无论谁当选中美关系基本格局不变FBI与美总统"为敌"近百年总统常处于下风孙哲:美国大选呈现两大特点折射其国家分裂严重美国学者:美国未来对外政策应注重对话与合作290票290票201票203票选情瞭望塔更多>>奥巴马这四年都做了啥?过去四年里,美国勉强度过经济危机,却依旧深陷泥潭。

2016年美国总统大选候选人

2016年美国总统大选候选人

2016.01.04 克林顿为希拉里站台拉票
• 据美国媒体报道,当 地时间1月4日,美国 前总统比尔· 克林顿首 次为妻子希拉里站台 拉票,活动地点位于 新罕布什尔州纳舒尔 市。
2016.02.01 美总统预选艾奥瓦州首战
• 美国东部时间2月1日晚,民主、共和两党 在艾奥瓦州各选区同时召开政党基层会议 进行党内预选投票,此举标志着美国2016 年总统大选正式启动。 • 计票结果显示,共和党方面,得克萨斯州 参议员特德· 克鲁兹获28%选票胜出,此前 民调领先的房地产商特朗普以24%居第二。 民主党方面,前国务卿希拉里· 克林顿以极 微弱优势战胜佛蒙特州参议员伯尼· 桑德斯。
2015.05 共和党多人宣布参选
• 美国惠普公司前首席 执行官(CEO)卡莉菲 奥莉娜和知名黑人医 生本卡森分别宣布以 共和党成员的身份参 加2016年总统竞选, 后者是争取共和党党 内总统候选人提名的 首位非洲裔美国人 • 奥巴马讽共和党竞选 人多 好比《饥饿游戏》
2015.06 希拉里不再唱“独角戏”
2016年美国总统大选
选举流程
预选(年初到年中) 确定各党总统、副总统候选人(第三季度) 全国选民投票(11月的第一个星期一的次日)
选举人团投票表决(12月第二个星期三之后的第一个星期一)
宣誓就职(次年1月20日)
民主党候选人
• • • • • • 前国务卿 希拉里·克林顿(Hillary Clinton) 佛蒙特州参议员 伯尼·桑德斯(Bernie Sanders) 前弗吉尼亚州参议员 吉姆·韦伯(Jim Webb) 马里兰州前州长 马丁·奥马利(Martin Omalley) 罗德岛州前州长 林肯·查菲(Lincoln Chafee) 美国副总统 乔·拜登(Joe Biden)

基于框架理论的美国总统大选辩论文本分析——以2016年电视辩论为例

基于框架理论的美国总统大选辩论文本分析——以2016年电视辩论为例

|RADIO &TV JOURNAL 2019.042016年美国大选结果公布之前,许多人并不看好特朗普,因为其大胆的言论、夸张的言谈举止,似乎并不“像”总统的合适人选。

包括在大选的电视辩论中,与之前历届总统以及竞争对手希拉里相比,特朗普都显得与众不同。

因此,特朗普当选的消息一度引起广泛轰动。

通过对本次大选的重要环节———电视辩论进行观察分析之后会发现,特朗普的辩论风格也许看起来疯狂,但却是十分吸引人的,这与他辩论中完整的框架与逻辑是分不开的。

关于总统辩论的研究一般主要集中在政治学领域、辩论学领域,但很少有学者从传播学框架理论的角度讨论总统辩论。

本文主要采用框架理论对2016年美国总统大选中现任总统特朗普和民主党候选人希拉里的电视辩论文本中的语言符号进行分类整理与分析,采取普查的方式,对三次辩论的整体文本进行梳理,分析框架理论在2016年美国总统辩论中的应用情况及其所起到的作用。

一、认知框架中的框架框定认知框架,也被称为概念框架,其在语义上与交际事件相关。

认知框架的特点是:每个框架都有固定的基本范畴;语言表达跟随认知观点变化,反之亦然;一个完整框架的各个元素之间都是紧密关联的。

如果其中一个被提及,那么框架内的其他元素都会被激活。

人们总是在框架中进行思考。

在辩论中,认知框架可以帮助辩论者进行框架框定。

其恰当运用在辩论中起着至关重要的作用,在保证认知框架在公众心目中的坚固性的同时也方便了对相关话题的辩论,从而轻松击败对手。

希拉里和特朗普的辩论清楚地揭示了他们关于税收的不同政策。

在辩论过程中,特朗普率先直接采用了“税收减免”的说法,在“税收”框架下有效运用相关认知框架。

在希拉里对经济做了一番较为积极乐观的评估以及展望之后,特朗普使用“税收是一种灾难”的隐喻,表示自己不同意希拉里的增税政策。

对于美国人而言,这里的灾难不仅指美国经济,更是美国企业的未来发展,以及它们能提供给美国人的就业机会,紧接着便是美国人的生活水平。

美国总统大选辩论中的身份建构与解构

美国总统大选辩论中的身份建构与解构

美国总统大选辩论中的身份建构与解构作者:夏玉琼来源:《华侨大学学报·哲学社会科学版》2019年第01期摘要:在言语交际中,交际者不仅可以通过言语行为建构自己的身份,还可以对对方建构的身份进行解构。

文章以2016年美国总统大选三场电视辩论为语料,探讨了在辩论中希拉里自我建构的身份以及对手特朗普对希拉里身份的解构。

研究表明,希拉里在辩论中主要建构了亲民和积极进取的个人身份以及精明能干的精英政治家身份,而竞选对手特朗普则通过对希拉里人品、能力的质疑,对希拉里以往政绩的否定以及对希拉里未来从政构想的不看好,解构了希拉里自我建构的身份。

交际具有目的性和意图性,身份的建构和解构是希拉里和特朗普意在赢得更多美国选民支持进而赢得大选的手段之一。

关键词:身份建构;身份解构;总统竞选辩论作者简介:夏玉琼,金陵科技学院外国语学院副教授,研究方向:语用学、话语分析(E-mail:***********.cn;江苏南京 210001)。

基金项目:江苏省高校哲学社会科学研究项目“人际语用视阈下医生身份建构对医患关系的管理”(2016SJD740009);江苏省高校哲学社会科学研究基金项目“人称指示语非常规用法的语用研究”(2017SJB0496)。

中图分类号:H313 文献标识码:A 文章编号:1006-1398(2019)01-0138-11一引言身份建构的研究是“社会科学的中心舞台”Bamberg,M.et al.Introduction to the volume.In Bamberg,M.et al,(eds.).Selves and Identities in Narrative and Discourse.Amsterdam:John Benjamins,2007,pp.1-8.,并已成为语用学研究的前沿热点问题。

袁周敏:《身份的界定:问题与建议》,《外语教学》2016年第4期,第20-23页。

国内外学者主要关注不同交际场合及不同语篇中身份的动态选择与建构Hyland . H.Authority and invisibility: authorial identity in academic writing.Journal of Pragmatics,2002,(34),pp.1091-1112.Piller.I.Identity constructions in multilingual nguage in Society,2006,(30),pp.153-186.Victor Ho.Constructing identities through request e-mail discourse.Journal of Pragmatics,2010,(42),pp.2253-2261.陈新仁等:《语用学视角下的身份与交际研究》,北京:高等教育出版社,2013年版。

美国总统川普是叫特朗普还是川普

美国总统川普是叫特朗普还是川普

美国总统川普是叫特朗普还是川普在激烈的美国总统大选中,川普率先拿到270张选举人票,这意味着他将当选美国下一届总统。

许多网友都搞不清楚是特朗普还是川普。

下面是小编带来的关于美国总统川普是叫特朗普还是川普的内容,欢迎大家阅读!美国总统川普的名字唐纳德·特朗普,亦称唐纳德·川普。

1946年6月14日生于美国纽约。

政治家、商人、作家、主持人。

唐纳德·特朗普曾经是美国最具知名度的房地产商之一,人称“地产之王”。

依靠房地产和股市,特朗普拥有纽约、新泽西州、佛罗里达州等地黄金地段的房地产,并且创建“特朗普梭运航空”,也是新泽西州“将军”职业足球队老板。

特朗普在风景怡人的城镇兴建数幢豪华大厦与别墅,还购买价值一亿美元的豪华游艇、此外还拥有私人飞机。

2016年11月9日,美国大选计票结果显示:共和党候选人唐纳德·特朗普已达到270张选举人票,将成为美国第45位总统。

所以,2017美国总统川普是叫特朗普,没有特普朗一说,之所以有许多人称川普为特普朗,应该是没记住将特朗普记错成特普朗了,为了避免叫错可以直接记住特朗普的音译名字川普,这样就不会闹出笑话了。

美国总统叫川普原因因为特朗普的英文是tramp,按音译来说可以直接为川普,这是台湾地区的译法。

而tramp也可以发音为T-RAM-P,这是新华社的《英语姓名译名手册》里的标准译法。

其实可以理解为多音词。

特朗普走向白宫的过程在这个崭新的总统身份之前,1946年6月出生于纽约的特朗普最被人熟知的身份是美国最具知名度的房地产商之一,他在纽约、新泽西州、佛罗里达州等地的黄金地段都拥有房地产。

那么,这位在竞选过程中始终被争议包围的新任美国总统是如何一步一步走入白宫的呢?第一财经记者梳理了特朗普白宫路上的几个关键时刻。

特朗普宣布参选2015年6月16日,特朗普在纽约市第五大道特朗普大厦宣布,决定参加2016年美国总统大选。

他表示:“我将成为有史以来最伟大的就业总统”、“我将让美国再次强大” 。

1960美国大选

1960美国大选

一.Kennedy(一)The youngest president of the USA Kennedy (43)(二)Kennedy's policy in election.1.the farmers' interestMake the supply and demand be in balance through government action.bating unemploymentStep up the use of surplus foods in the poor areas until we are able to get the people back to work(三)3 Agree to sending regrets to khrushchev4.The plan for getting America moving againDo some improvement in space and education. Increase the science and technology input to put America to work again.(四)The reason for Kennedy's triumph lie in:·the sag of economic in the year of election·the citizens were anxious about the America's ability to reply to menace of the the Soviet Union .·the representation on TV·unadvisable promise of Nixon(五)·the support of minority, especially the Catholics.Kennedy replied in to the query of his identity as a Catholic in a public speech :I am not Catholic candidate for President. I am the Democratic Party's candidate for President who happens also to be a Catholic. I do not speak for myChurch on public matters—and the Church does not speak for me.二. TV DebatePublic opinion studies showed the election campaign would be very, very close. Then, the candidates agreed to hold four debates. And the debates would be broadcast on television.On the night of September 26, 1960 Kennedy and Nixon, for the first time in U.S. history, started the debate faced with about 70 million television viewers.In the first debate, they showed they did not differ too widely on major issues. Kennedy, however, appeared calm and sure. Nixon, who did not feel well, appeared thin and tired in his light gray suit. In fact he just went through a car accident. Many people who had not considered voting for Kennedy now began to change their minds. To them, he looked like a president.Hewitt mentioned in his memories that when Kennedy accepted the televised debate invitation, he cared much about it and personally asked a lot of questions: I would be standing or seated in the debate ? Can I take notes? How long will the response time be? And he even made his skin brown by bathing in the sun. Instead, Nixon did not the take the TV debate seriously, he refused to make up, and regarded it as just another kind of electioneering. So his beard stubble was quite obvious on the TV screen.三.分析肯尼迪是美国历史上的第一位“电视总统”,凭借电视辩论赢得选举。

2021美国总统大选辩论会中文版(血泪翻译版)

2021美国总统大选辩论会中文版(血泪翻译版)

2021美国总统大选辩论会中文版(血泪翻译版)(掌声)吉姆莱勒:三十秒,伙计。

让我们有一个很棒的夜晚,为你,为我国。

晚上好从麦格尼斯竞技场在丹佛丹佛大学,科罗拉多。

我是吉姆莱勒的“公共广播新闻,“我欢迎你到2021第一场总统辩论之间的巴拉克总统奥巴马,民主党提名的候选人,和前马萨诸塞州州长米特・罗姆尼,共和党提名。

这次辩论和未来三――两国总统,副总统――是一个由总统辩论委员会主办。

今晚的90分钟将国内问题,将由委员会设计的格式。

大约15分钟会有六段两分钟回答第一个问题,然后公开讨论为余下的每一部分。

成千上万的人们提供建议部分科目或问题,通过互联网和其他手段,但我作出最后的选择。

并记录,他们没有提交批准委员会或候选人。

这段我提前宣布将三的经济和一个卫生保健,政府的作用和管理,重点在不同,细节和选择。

两位候选人也将有两分钟的最后陈述。

大厅中的观众都已经承诺保持沉默――没有欢呼,掌声,嘘声,嘘声,在嘈杂的分心的事情,所以我们可能都集中在候选人都说。

有一个声音异常现在,虽然,我们欢迎奥巴马总统和罗姆尼州长。

(掌声)先生们,欢迎你们。

让我们开始经济,段,并让我们开始工作。

什么是主要的差异两国之间的你,你将如何去创造新的工作?这次辩论和未来三――两国总统,副总统――是一个由总统辩论委员会主办。

今晚的90分钟将国内问题,将由委员会设计的格式。

大约15分钟会有六段两分钟回答第一个问题,然后公开讨论为余下的每一部分。

你有2分钟。

每一个你有2分钟开始。

掷硬币决定,总统先生,你先去。

奥巴马总统:好的,谢谢你,吉姆,这个机会。

我要感谢罗姆尼州长和丹佛大学的盛情款待。

有很多分,我希望今晚能,但其中最重要的是,20年前我成为世上最幸运的人因为米歇尔奥巴马同意嫁给我。

于是我只想祝福你,亲爱的,周年快乐,让你知道,从现在开始的一年我们将不庆祝它在40000000人面前。

(笑声)你知道,四年前我们经历了大萧条以来最严重金融危机。

数据模型与决策

数据模型与决策
经计算有 由此给出总体均值、方差和中位数的估计分别为: 28.695,
0.9185 和 28.6。
定义 设总体的概率函数为P(x; ), 是参数 可能取值的参数空间,x1, x2 , …, xn 是样本,将 样本的联合概率函数看成 的函数,用L( ; x1, x2, …, xn) 表示,简记为L( ),
总体与样本
1 添加标题
总体 美国2亿五千多万成年人
2 添加标题
样本 1015人
3 添加标题
抽取样本
4 添加标题
推断总体
5 添加标题
在全部美国2亿五千多万成 年人中克林顿政府外交政 策和经济政策支持率各是 多少?
6 添加标题
经统计:在样本1015人中各 有39%(396)的和42%(426) 的人分别支持克林顿政府的 外交政策和经济政策
样本均值x是总体均值的(点)估计
在样本容量 n 比较大的时候
关于比例和均值的 总体比例 P 的置信水平例如为 95%的区间估计为 估计 p1 p
p 1.96 n
总体均值的置信水平例如为 95%的区间估计为
x 1.96 s n
有些问题,由于种种原因例如希望试验成本低一
些,或希望试验时间短一些,或就只作了少数几次
观察,以至于样本容量比较小。在样本容量n比较
小的时候,在n样x s 本接近容N量0,1比的情较况小就比的较差。n越
小,情况越差。
时候
在总体的分布为正态分布N ,2 的时候,
样本n容x s量的小(精,确且)分总布体为t为n 正1分态布分布
圆钢强度的测量是一个破坏性试验,其样本容
量不会很大。现测得n 7根圆钢的强度数据:
p 分位数,
Vˆ ar(X) sn2

2012美国大选副总统辩论文字稿

2012美国大选副总统辩论文字稿

Vice Presidential debate2012Transcript of the Oct.11debate between Vice President Biden and his Republican challenger, Rep.Paul Ryan of Wisconsin,moderated by Martha Raddatz of ABC News.Source:Federal News ServiceMARTHA RADDATZ:Good evening,and welcome to the first and only vice presidential debate of2012,sponsored by the Commission on Presidential Debates.I'm Martha Raddatz of ABC News,and I am honored to moderate this debate between two men who have dedicated much of their lives to public service.Tonight's debate is divided between domestic and foreign policy issues.And I'm going to move back and forth between foreign and domestic since that is what a vice president or president would have to do.We will have nine different segments.At the beginning of each segment,I will ask both candidates a question,and they will each have two minutes to answer.Then I will encourage a discussion between the candidates with follow-up questions.By coin toss,it has been determined that Vice President Biden will be first to answer the opening question.We have a wonderful audience here at Centre College tonight.You will no doubt hear their enthusiasm at the end of the debate and right now as we welcome Vice President Biden and Congressman Paul Ryan.(Applause.)Very nice to see you.Very nice to see you.VICE PRESIDENT JOE BIDEN:How you doing?MS.RADDATZ:Hey,you got your little wave to the families in.That's great.Good evening,gentlemen.It really is an honor to be here with both of you.I would like to begin with Libya on a rather somber note.One month ago tonight,on the anniversary of9/11,Ambassador Chris Stevens and three other brave Americans were killed in a terrorist attack in Benghazi.The State Department has now made clear there were no protesters there.It was a pre-planned assault by heavily armed men.Wasn't this a massive intelligence failure,Vice President Biden?VICE PRESIDENT BIDEN:What it was,it was a tragedy,Martha.It—Chris Stevens was one of our best.We lost three other brave Americans.And I can make absolutely two commitments to you and all of the American people tonight: One,we will find and bring to justice the men who did this.And secondly,we will get to the bottom of it,and whatever—wherever the facts lead us, wherever they lead us,w will make clear to the American public,because whatever mistakes were made will not be made again.When you're looking at a president,Martha,it seems to me that you should take a look at his most important responsibility.That's carrying forward the national security of the country.And the best way to do that is take a look at how he's handled he issues of the day.On Iraq,the president said he would end the ernor Romney said that was a tragic mistake;we should have left—that he ended it—Governor Romney said that was a tragic mistake;we should have left30,000troops there.With regard to Afghanistan,he said he will end the war ernor Romney said we should not set a date,number one,and number two,with regard to2014,it depends.When it came to Osama bin Laden,the president,the first day in office—I was sitting with him in the Oval Office.He called in the CIA and signed an order saying,my highest priority is to get bin Laden.Prior to the election,prior to the—him being sworn in,Governor Romney was asked a question about how he would proceed.He said,I wouldn't move heaven and earth to get bin Laden.He didn't understand it was more than about taking a—a murderer off the battlefield;it was about restoring America's heart and letting terrorists around the world know if you do harm to America,we will track you to the gates of hell,if need be.And lastly,the—the president of the United States has—has led with a steady hand and clear ernor Romney,the opposite.The last thing we need now is another war.MS.RADDATZ:Congressman Ryan.REP.PAUL RYAN:(Sighs.)We mourn the loss of these four Americans who were murdered. When you take a look at what has happened just in the last few weeks,they sent the U.N. ambassador out to say that this was because of a protest and a YouTube video.It took the president two weeks to acknowledge that this was a terrorist attack.He went to the U.N.,and in his speech at the U.N.he said six times—he talked about the YouTube video.Look,if we are hit by terrorists,we're going to call it for what it is,a terrorist attack.Our ambassador in Paris has a Marine detachment guarding him.Shouldn't we have a Marinedetachment guarding our ambassador in Benghazi,a place where we knew that there was an al-Qaida cell with arms?This is becoming more troubling by the day.They first blamed the YouTube video;now they're trying to blame the Romney-Ryan ticket for making this an issue.And with respect to Iraq,we had the same position before the withdrawal,which was we agreed with the Obama administration:Let's have a Status of Forces Agreement to make sure that we secure our gains.The vice president was put in charge of those negotiations by President Obama,and they failed to get the agreement.We don't have a Status of Forces Agreement because they failed to get one.That's what we are talking about.And when it comes to our veterans,we owe them a great debt of gratitude for what they've done for us,including your son Beau.But we also want to make sure that we don't lose the things we fought so hard to get.And with respect to Afghanistan and the2014deadline,we agree with a2014transition.But what we also want to do is make sure that we're not projecting weakness abroad,and that's what's happening here.This Benghazi issue would be a tragedy in and of itself.But unfortunately it's indicative of a broader problem,and that is what we are watching on our TV screens is the unraveling of the Obama foreign policy,which is making the world more—more chaotic and us less safe.MS.RADDATZ:I just want to talk to you about right in the middle of the ernor Romney—and you're talking about this again tonight—talked about the weakness,talked about apologies from the Obama administration.Was that really appropriate right in the middle of the crisis?REP.RYAN:On that same day,the Obama administration had the exact same position.Let's recall that they disavowed their own statement that they had put out earlier in the day in Cairo.So we had the same position,but we will—it's never to early to speak out for our values.We should have spoken out right away when the Green Revolution was up and starting,when the mullahs in Iran were attacking their people.We should not have called Bashar Assad a reformer when he was turning his Russian-provided guns on his own people.We should always stand up for peace,for democracy,for individual rights,and we should not be imposing these devastating defense cuts,because what that does when we equivocate on our values, when we show that we're cutting our own defense—VICE PRESIDENT BIDEN:Am I going to get to say anything here?REP.RYAN:—it makes us more weak.It projects weakness,and when we look weak,our adversaries are much more willing to test us,they're more brazen in their attacks,and our allies are less willing to—VICE PRESIDENT BIDEN:With all due respect,that's a bunch of malarkey.In fact—MS.RADDATZ:And why is that so?VICE PRESIDENT BIDEN:Because not a single thing he said is accurate.First of all—MS.RADDATZ:Be specific.VICE PRESIDENT BIDEN:I will be very specific.Number one,the—this lecture on embassy security—the congressman here cut embassy security in his budget by$300million below what we asked for,number one.So much for the embassy security piece.Number two,Governor Romney,before he knew the facts,before he even knew that our ambassador was killed,he was out making a political statement which was panned by the media around the world.And this talk about this—this weakness,I—I don't understand what my friend's talking about here.We—this is a president who's gone out and done everything he has said he was going to do. This is the guy who's repaired our alliances so the rest of the world follows us again.This is the guy who brought the entire world,including Russia and China,to bring about the most devastating,most devastating—the most devastating efforts on Iran to make sure that they in fact stop with their—look,I—I—I just—I mean,these guys bet against America all the time.REP.RYAN:I—MS.RADDATZ:Can we talk about—let me go back to Libya.VICE PRESIDENT BIDEN:Yeah,sure.MS.RADDATZ:What were you first told about the attack?Why were people talking about protests?When people in the consulate first saw armed men attacking with guns,there were no protesters.Why did that go on for weeks?VICE PRESIDENT BIDEN:Because that's exactly what we were told—MS.RADDATZ:By who?VICE PRESIDENT BIDEN:—by the intelligence community.The intelligence community told us that.As they learned more facts about exactly what happened,they changed their assessment.That's why there's also an investigation headed by Tom Pickering,a leading diplomat in the—from the Reagan years,who is doing an investigation as to whether or not there were any lapses,what the lapses were,so that they will never happen again.But—MS.RADDATZ:And they wanted more security there.VICE PRESIDENT BIDEN:Well,we weren't told they wanted more security again.We did not know they wanted more security again.And by the way,at the time we were told exactly—we said exactly what the intelligence community told us that they knew.That was the assessment. And as the intelligence community changed their view,we made it clear they changed their view.That's why I said,we will get to the bottom of this.You know,usually when there's a crisis,we pull together.We pull together as a nation.But as I said,even before we knew what happened to the ambassador,the governor was holding a press conference—was holding a press conference.That's not presidential leadership.MS.RADDATZ:Mr.Ryan,I want to ask you about—the Romney campaign talks a lot about no apologies.He has a book called No Apologies.Should the U.S.have apologized for Americans burning Qurans in Afghanistan?Should the U.S.apologize for U.S.Marines urinating on Taliban corpses?REP.RYAN:Oh,gosh,yes.Urinating on Taliban corpses?What we should not apologize for —MS.RADDATZ:Burning Qurans(immediately?)?REP.RYAN:What—what we should not be apologizing for are standing up for our values. What we should not be doing is saying to the Egyptian people,while Mubarak is cracking down on them,that he's a good guy and then the next week say he ought to go.What we should not be doing is rejecting claims for—calls for more security in our barracks,in our Marine—we need Marines in Benghazi when the commander on the ground says we need more forces for security.There were requests for extra security.Those requests were not honored.Look,this was the anniversary of9/11.It was Libya,a country we knew we had al-Qaida cells there.As we know,al-Qaida and its affiliates are on the rise in northern Africa.And we did not give our ambassador in Benghazi a Marine detachment?Of course there is an investigation sowe can make sure that this never happens again.But when it comes to speaking up for our values,we should not apologize for those.Here is the problem.Look at all the various issues out there and that's unraveling before our eyes.The vice president talks about sanctions on Iran.They got—we've had four—MS.RADDATZ:Let's move to Iran.I'd actually like to move to Iran because there is really no bigger national security—REP.RYAN:Absolutely.MS.RADDATZ:—this country is facing.Both President Obama and Governor Romney have said they will prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon,even if that means military action. Last week former Defense Secretary Bob Gates said a strike on Iran's facilities would not work and,quote,could prove catastrophic,haunting us for generations.Can the two of you be absolutely clear and specific to the American people how effective would a military strike be? Congressman Ryan.REP.RYAN:We cannot allow Iran to gain a nuclear weapons capability.Now,let's take a look at where we've gone—come from.When Barack Obama was elected, they had enough fissile material,nuclear material,to make one bomb.Now they have enough for five.They're racing toward a nuclear weapon.They're four years closer toward a nuclear weapons capability.We've had four different sanctions at the U.N.on Iran,three from the Bush administration,one here.And the only reason we got it is because Russia watered it down and prevented the—the sanctions from hitting the central bank.Mitt Romney proposed these sanctions in2007.In Congress,I've been fighting for these sanctions since2009.The administration was blocking us every step of the way.Only because we had strong bipartisan support for these tough sanctions were we able to overrule their objections and put them in spite of the administration.Imagine what would have happened if we had these sanctions in place earlier.You think Iran's not brazen?Look at what they're doing.They're stepping up their terrorist attacks.They tried a terrorist attack in the United States last year when they tried to blow up the Saudi ambassador at a restaurant in Washington,D.C.And talk about credibility.When this administration says that all options are on the table,they send out senior administration officials that send all these mixed signals.And so in order solve this peacefully,which is everybody's goal,you have to have the ayatollahs change their minds.Look at where they are.They're moving faster toward a nuclear weapon.It's because this administration has no credibility on this issue.It's because this administration watered down sanctions,delayed sanctions,tried to stop us from putting the tough sanctions in place.Now we have them in place because of Congress.They say the military option's on the table but it's not being viewed as credible,and the key is to do this peacefully,is to make sure that we have credibility.Under a Romney administration,we will have credibility on this issue.MS.RADDATZ:Vice President Biden.VICE PRESIDENT BIDEN:Incredible.(Chuckles.)Look,imagine had we let the Republican Congress work out the sanctions.You think there's any possibility the entire world would have joined us,Russia and China,all of our allies?These are the most crippling sanctions in the history of sanctions,period,period.When Governor Romney's asked about it,he said,we got to keep these sanctions.When they said,well,you're talking about doing more,what are you—are you—you're going to go to war?Is that you want to do now?REP.RYAN:We want to prevent war!VICE PRESIDENT BIDEN:(Inaudible)—and I—the interesting thing is,how they're going to prevent war.How are they going to prevent war if they say that there's nothing more that we—that they say we should do than what we've already done,number one?And number two,with regard to the ability of the United States to take action militarily,it is—it is not in my purview to talk about classified information.But we feel quite confident we could deal a serious blow to the Iranians.But number two,the Iranians are—the Israelis and the United States—our military and intelligence communities are absolutely the same exact place in terms of how close—how close the Iranians are to getting a nuclear weapon.They are a good way away.There is no difference between our view and theirs.When my friend talks about fissile material,they have to take this highly enriched uranium,get it from20percent up.Then they have to be able to have something to put it in.There is no weapon that the Iranians have at this point.Both the Israelis and we know we'll know if they start the process of building a weapon.So all this bluster I keep hearing,all this loose talk—what are they talking about?Are you talking about to be more credible?What—what morecan the president do?Stand before the United Nations,tell the whole world,directly communicate to the ayatollah:We will not let them acquire a nuclear weapon,period,unless he's talking about going to war.REP.RYAN:Martha,let's just—MS.RADDATZ:Congressman Ryan.REP.RYAN:—let's look at this from the view of the ayatollahs.What do they see?They see this administration trying to water down sanctions in Congress for over two years.They're moving faster toward a nuclear weapon;they're spinning the centrifuges faster.They see us saying,when we come into the administration,when they're sworn in,we need more space with our ally Israel.They see President Obama in New York City the same day Bibi Netanyahu is,and he's—instead of meeting with him goes on a—on a daily talk show.They see—when we say that these options are on the table,the secretary of defense walked them back. They are not changing their mind.That's what we have to do,is change their mind so they stop pursuing nuclear weapons,and they're going faster.MS.RADDATZ:How will you do it so quickly?Look,you both saw Benjamin Netanyahu hold up that picture of a bomb with the red line and talking about the red line being in spring.So can you solve this—if the Romney-Ryan ticket is elected,can you solve this in two months before spring and avoid nuclear—REP.RYAN:We—we can debate a timeline.MS.RADDATZ:(Inaudible.)REP.RYAN:We can debate the timeline,whether there's—it's that short a time or longer.I —I agree that it's probably longer.Number two,it's all about credibility.MS.RADDATZ:You don't agree with that bomb and what the Israelis—VICE PRESIDENT BIDEN:No,look—(inaudible)—REP.RYAN:(Inaudible)—look,we—we both—(inaudible)—MS.RADDATZ:Vice President Biden.REP.RYAN:I don't want to go into classified stuff,but we both agree that to do this peacefully, you've got to get them to change their minds.They're not changing their minds,and look at what this administration does—MS.RADDATZ:But what do you do—(inaudible)—VICE PRESIDENT BIDEN:Let me tell you what the ayatollah sees.REP.RYAN:You have to have credibility.VICE PRESIDENT BIDEN:The ayatollah sees his economy being crippled.The ayatollah sees that there are50percent fewer exports of oil.He sees the currency going into the tank. He sees the economy going into free fall,and he sees the world for the first time totally united in opposition to him getting a nuclear weapon.Now,with regard to Bibi,he's been my friend for39years.The president has met with Bibi a dozen times.He's spoken to Bibi Netanyahu as much as he's spoken to anybody.The idea that we're not—I was in a—just before he went to the U.N.,I was in a conference call with the—with the president,with him talking to Bibi,for well over an hour in—in—in—in—in stark relief and detail about what was going on.This is a bunch of stuff.Look,here's the deal —MS.RADDATZ:What does that mean,"a bunch of stuff"?VICE PRESIDENT BIDEN:Well,it means it's simply inaccurate.REP.RYAN:It's Irish.(Chuckles.)VICE PRESIDENT BIDEN:It is.(Laughter.)We Irish call it malarkey.MS.RADDATZ:Thanks for the translation.OK.VICE PRESIDENT BIDEN:No,we Irish call it malarkey.(Laughter.)But last thing:the secretary of defense has made it absolutely clear.He didn't walk anything back.We will not allow the Iranians to get a nuclear weapon.What Bibi held up there was when they get to the point where they can enrich uranium enough to put into a weapon,they don't have a weapon to put it into.Let's all calm down a little bit here.Iran is more isolated today than when we took office.It was on the ascendancy when we took office.It is totally isolated.MS.RADDATZ:Congressman Ryan—VICE PRESIDENT BIDEN:I don't know what world you guys are in.MS.RADDATZ:Congressman Ryan—REP.RYAN:Thank—thank heavens we have these sanctions in place.It's in spite of their opposition.VICE PRESIDENT BIDEN:(Chuckles.)Oh,God.REP.RYAN:They have given20waivers to this sanction.And all I have to point to are the results.They're four years closer toward a nuclear weapon.I think that case speaks for itself.MS.RADDATZ:Can you tell the American people what's worse—VICE PRESIDENT BIDEN:By the way,they're—no,no,they are not four years closer to a nuclear weapon.MS.RADDATZ:—another war in the Middle East or—VICE PRESIDENT BIDEN:They're—they're closer to being able to get enough fissile material to put in a weapon if they had a weapon.But—MS.RADDATZ:You're acting a little bit like they don't want one,though.VICE PRESIDENT BIDEN:Oh,I didn't say—no,I'm not saying—(look?),facts matter, Martha.You're a foreign policy expert.Facts matter.All this loose talk about them—all they have to do is get to—enrich uranium in a certain amount and they have a weapon—not true. Not true.They are more—and if we ever have to take action,unlike where we took office,we will have the world behind us,and that matters.That matters.MS.RADDATZ:What about Bob Gates'statement?Let me read that again:"Could prove catastrophic,haunting us for generations."VICE PRESIDENT BIDEN:He is right.It could prove catastrophic if we do—we do it with—(inaudible)—MS.RADDATZ:Congressman Ryan?REP.RYAN:And what it does is it—and it undermines our credibility by backing up the point when we make it that all options are on the table.That's the point.The ayatollahs see thesekinds of statements,and they think,I'm going to get a nuclear weapon.When—when we see the kind of equivocation that took place because this administration wanted a precondition policy—so when the Green Revolution started up,they were silent for nine days.When they see us putting—when they see us putting daylight between ourselves and our allies in Israel, that gives them encouragement.When they see Russia watering down any further sanctions —and the only reason we got a U.N.sanction is because Russia watered it down and prevented these—(there?)from being sanctions in the first place.So when they see this kind of activity,they are encouraged to continue,and that's the problem.VICE PRESIDENT BIDEN:Martha,let me tell you what Russia's—(inaudible)—MS.RADDATZ:What—let me ask you what's worse:war in the Middle East,another war in the Middle East,or a nuclear-armed Iran?REP.RYAN:I'll tell you what's worse.I'll tell you what's worse.MS.RADDATZ:Quickly.REP.RYAN:A nuclear-armed Iran,which triggers a nuclear arms race in the Middle East. This is the world's largest sponsor of—of terrorism.They've dedicated themselves—VICE PRESIDENT BIDEN:That's the only thing my—REP.RYAN:—to wiping an entire country off the map.They call us the Great Satan.And if they get nuclear weapons,other people in the neighborhood will pursue their nuclear weapons as well.MS.RADDATZ:Vice President Biden.REP.RYAN:We can't live with that.VICE PRESIDENT BIDEN:War should always be the absolute last resort.That's why these crippling sanctions,what Bibi Netanyahu says we should continue—which,if I'm not mistaken, Governor Romney says we—we should continue.If I—I may be mistaken;he changes his mind so often,I could be wrong.But the fact of the matter is,he says they're working.And the fact is that they are being crippled by them.And we've made it clear,big nations can't bluff. This president doesn't bluff.MS.RADDATZ:Gentlemen,I want to bring the conversation to a different kind of national security issue,the state of our economy.The number one issue here at home is jobs.Thepercentage of unemployed just fell below8percent for the first time in43months.The Obama administration had projected that it would fall below6percent now after the addition of close to a trillion dollars in stimulus money.So will both of you level with the American people?Can you get unemployment to under6percent,and how long will it take?VICE PRESIDENT BIDEN:I don't know how long it will take.MS.RADDATZ:Vice President Biden.VICE PRESIDENT BIDEN:We can and we will get it under6percent.Let's look at the—let's take a look at the facts.Let's look at where we were when we came to office.The economy was in free fall.We had—the Great Recession hit.Nine million people lost their job,1.7—$1.6trillion in wealth lost in equity in your homes,in retirement accounts from the middle class.We knew we had to act for the middle class.We immediately went out and rescued General Motors.We went ahead and made sure that we cut taxes for the middle class.And in addition to that,when that—and when that occurred,what did Romney do?Romney said,no,let Detroit go bankrupt.We moved in and helped people refinance their ernor Romney said,no,let foreclosures hit the bottom.But it shouldn't be surprising for a guy who says47percent of the American people are unwilling to take responsibility for their own lives.My friend recently,in a speech in Washington,said30%of the American people are takers.These people are my mom and dad, the people I grew up with,my neighbors.They pay more effective tax than Governor Romney pays in his federal income tax.They are elderly people who in fact are living off of Social Security.They are veterans and people fighting in Afghanistan right now who are,quote,not paying any taxes.I've had it up to here with this notion that47percent—it's about time they take some responsibility here.And instead of signing pledges to Grover Norquist not to ask the wealthiest among us to contribute to bring back the middle class,they should be signing a pledge saying to the middle class,we're going to level the playing field.We're going to give you a fair shot again.We are going to not repeat the mistakes we made in the past by having a different set of rules for Wall Street and Main Street,making sure that we continue to hemorrhage these tax cuts for the superwealthy.They're pushing the continuation of a tax cut that will give an additional$500billion in tax cuts to120,000families.And they're holding hostage the middle-class tax cut because they say,we won't pass—we won't continue the middle-class tax cut unless you give the tax cut for the superwealthy.It's about time they take some responsibility.MS.RADDATZ:Mr.Ryan.REP.RYAN:Joe and I are from similar towns.He's from Scranton,Pennsylvania.I'm from Janesville,Wisconsin.You know what the unemployment rate in Scranton is today?VICE PRESIDENT BIDEN:I sure do.REP.RYAN:It's10percent.VICE PRESIDENT BIDEN:Yeah.REP.RYAN:You know what it was the day you guys came in?VICE PRESIDENT BIDEN:No.REP.RYAN:Eight-point-five percent.VICE PRESIDENT BIDEN:Yeah.REP.RYAN:That's how it's going all around America.Look—VICE PRESIDENT BIDEN:You don't read the statistics.That's not"how it's going."It's going down.MS.RADDATZ:(Inaudible)—two-minute answer,please.REP.RYAN:Look—(chuckles)—did they come in and inherit a tough situation?Absolutely.VICE PRESIDENT BIDEN:(Chuckles.)REP.RYAN:But we're going in the wrong direction!Look at where we are.The economy is barely limping along.It's growing at1.3percent.That's slower than it grew last year,and last year was slower than the year before.Job growth in September was slower than it was in August,and August was slower than it was in July.We're heading in the wrong direction.。

美国总统竞选中的电视辩论

美国总统竞选中的电视辩论

云南社会主义学院学报 2012年第3期 NO.3,2012 云南社会主义学院学报JO UR NA L OF YU N NA NI N ST I TU T E OFS O CI A L I S M 280浅谈美国总统竞选中的电视辩论 姜晓艳 (东南大学 人文学院,江苏 南京 211189) 摘 要:随着大众传媒的兴起,电视辩论在美国迅速发展。

它为总统候选人提供了展现自我的舞台,是民主政治的一大进步,它使选民有了了解总统候选人的机会,使领导人更加注重自己的形象设计,提高了竞选的透明度。

当然,它也不可避免的带有一定的消极影响。

目前,我国的选举制度中也存在一些弊端,美国的电视辩论对我国的选举也有一定的借鉴意义。

关键词:美国总统;竞选;电视辩论;民主政治 中图分类号:D771.2 文献标志码:A 文章编号:1671-2811(2012)03-0280-2 一、引言 美国总统大选中的电视辩论产生于20世纪中叶,在美国的政治生活中发挥了重要作用。

从目前来看,其技术手段日臻成熟,影响力不断扩大。

它对美国民主政治建设产生了深远影响,对于其他国家特别是西方国家的的民主政治建设也有借鉴意义。

基于不同的文化背景和政治环境,我国选举中无法完全照搬美国的这一模式,但美国竞选中的电视辩论中反映出来的一些民主因素是可以为我们提供一些启发。

二、美国总统选举电视辩论的产生与发展 1960年9月26日,美国举行了第一次总统选举候选人的电视辩论。

这次辩论的主角分别是肯尼迪和尼克松,有七百万美国人收看了这场电视辩论直播。

在辩论之前,两位候选人的支持率相当,但辩论之后,尼克松的支持率直线下降。

原因在于,肯尼迪巧妙地运用了电视辩论,特别是把自己年轻的优势展现给观众。

可以说,尼克松并不是输给了实力,而是输给了电视这一大众传播媒介。

经过半个多世纪的实践,美国总统的电视辩论也在不断完善和发展。

这使得电视辩论的技术和技巧日益多样化,公众的关注程度也不断提高,在促进政治民主化的过程中发挥了越来越重要的作用。

总统辩论(中英对照)

总统辩论(中英对照)

Presidential DebatesDebates among candidates are rare in most countries. But they have become a staple1 of American politics, particularly during the last 25 years. Americans like debates because the candidates can be compared in an unscripted, live performance. The candidates don't know what questions will be asked, nor what their opponent might say. History indicates that a bad performance, particularly a telling gaffe2, can badly damage a candidate in the polls. The debates are a “ key test” of the st rength and abilities of the candidates, says CNN analyst Jeff Greenfield. A candidate cannot package himself in debates the way he can in party advertisements but must be quick on his feet3 to respond to unanticipated4 questions and criticisms, he adds.The unforgettable debate quip5 that can deflate6 a candidacy is the worst nightmare of any presidential hopeful.“ There you go again” , Ronald Reagan's memorable retort7 to President Jimmy Carter, was a line8 that stuck with both viewers and commentators in the l980 presidential campaign. Carter went on to lose the election, polls showed mostly because of the economy. But Carter's debate performance didn't help. Another example was Vice President Walter Mondale's deadly question to Senator Gary Hart, his main competitor in the 1984 Democratic primaries, “ Where's the beef?” Mondale borrowed the line from a hamburger commercial that had used the phrase to suggest that competing products shortchanged9 the consumer. Mondale, in effect, suggested that Hart's ideas were short on substance.The potential of debates to damage a vulnerable presidential hopeful is one reason why some candidates, particularly frontrunners10, are reluctant to risk their chances in such an uncontrolled environment--and the fewer debate rules there are,the less control the candidates have.But broadcast presidential debates,both in the primaries and in the general election,are now routine and expected by the American people.It was not always so. Face-to-face presidential debates began their broadcast history in 1948 when Republicans Thomas Dewey and Harold Stassen faced each other in a radio debate during the Oregon Republican presidential primary. The first broadcast television debates between the two major party nominees were in 1960 when Senator John F. Kennedy faced Vice President Richard Nixon.The debates were considered crucial to Kennedy’ s narrow11 victory. Interestingly, Americans who heard the debate on radio thought Nixon had won. But the far larger television audience applauded Kennedy's performance, testimony to the importance--in the television age--of image as well as substance. The point is Americans are concerned not just with a leader's policies and ideology12, but also with his character and temperament13. In the contentious14 atmosphere of a debate, such personal attributes15 are easier for voters to judge than in pre-packaged campaign commercials or formal speeches. Because television debates were deemed so crucial to the outcome of the 1960 election--dooming Richard Nixon to a narrow loss in the opinion of manyanalysts--the presidential nominees in the subsequent three presidential elections shield16 away from debates, feeling the risks were too great. Not until 1976 when Georgia Governor Jimmy Carter confronted President Gerald Ford was there another presidential debate. Since then, there have been debates in each of the presiden tial election years. The American people now expect them and it is doubtful a candidate could refuse to participate, analysts say.Since 1987, the presidential debates have been organized by the bipartisan17 organization, the Commission on Presidential Debates. Its purpose is to sponsor and produce debates for the presidential and vice presidential candidates of the two major parties. In Election 2000, the commission set a threshold18 for the participation of third party candidates in the debates. They must show they have the support--as evidenced in a number of opinion polls--of at least 15 percent of the population.Whatever the quality of the debates in Election 2000, they are unlikely to equal the most famous political debates in American history which occurred long before the invention of radio and television. In 1858, Stephen Douglas debated Abraham Lincoln for a U.S. Senate seat. The debates were held at seven sites throughout Illinois, onefor each of the seven congressional districts. Douglas, a pro-slavery Democrat,was the incumbent19.Lincoln was anti-slavery. “ Honest Abe,” as he was endearingly called, lost the Senate race, but two years later was elected the first Republican president of the United States. The Lincoln Douglas debates are still heralded20 for the quality of the discourse at a crucial time in the nation's history.总统辩论候选人之间的辩论在大多数国家都很稀奇,但它们在美国政治生活中已司空见惯,特别是在过去的25年里。

谎话连篇的美国总统辩论

谎话连篇的美国总统辩论

谎话连篇的美国总统辩论谎话连篇的美国总统辩论无撒谎,不总统副总统候选人辩论,拜登瑞恩激烈交锋“他们又开始撒谎了”“他们又开始撒谎了。

”——在10月3日第一场美国总统选举电视辩论结束以后,《华盛顿邮报》“关于辩论的事实检验”的报道用这句话作为了开头。

《华盛顿邮报》称,奥巴马和罗姆尼在辩论中都像雪花般地抛出了各种数据和事实,但相当一部分都非常可疑。

比如,奥巴马称,过去两年,民众健康保险的支出确实增长了,但这是过去50年来最慢的增长。

报道质疑称,奥巴马试图拿他力推的医保法案邀功说不通,实际上,这两年增长较慢是因为法案很多条款还未执行,而且遇上了经济不景气。

又如罗姆尼宣称,他所制定的经济复苏计划,将会为美国带来1200万个职位,但据独立的经济学家分析,未来四年的经济必然会走向复苏,为美国带来1200万个职位,这与哪位当选总统没有任何关系。

罗姆尼还称,他将为美国带来更多的开放市场,但奥巴马政府一个开放市场都没有带来,而事实上,奥巴马执政期间至少与哥伦比亚、巴拿马、韩国签署了新的贸易协定。

类似的误导性表达或者有意无意的举证错误在辩论中还有很多。

而美国媒体之所以死盯着这种行为,是因为这场势均力敌的“撒谎竞赛”(时代杂志语),并不是从电视辩论才开始的,而是从整个选举、甚至在很久以前就开始了。

…[详细]奥巴马,睁眼说瞎话的高手;罗姆尼,30周内共撒了533个谎奥巴马被认为有着“睁眼说瞎话”的天赋,能够把谎言说得“义正言辞”,甚至让听者感动不已。

一个典型例子是,当去年奥巴马被问到他是否认为最高法院会判罚他的医保法案违宪时,他回答说:“我相信最高法院不会做出这种史无前例的卓绝决定,来推翻一项民主选举的多数议会通过的立法。

”奥巴马的措辞让人感到非常自信而且还很有道理,但其实犯了非常基本的错误。

美国最高法院判罚一项“由民主议会通过的多数法律”违宪究并不是“史无前例”,事实上,美国最高法院这么做的历史,已经有209年之久,最高法院存在的意义之一就是“裁决违宪权”,这项权利是美国宪政的基础。

2008美国总统大选候选人辩论

2008美国总统大选候选人辩论

2008美国总统大选候选人辩论Debates among candidates are rare in most countries. But they have become a staple1 of American politics, particularly during the last 25 years. Americans like debates because the candidates can be compared in an unscripted, live performance. The candidates don't know what questions will be asked, nor what their opponent might say. History indicates that a bad performance, particularly a telling gaffe2, can badly damage a candidate in the polls. The debates are a “ key test” of the strength and abilities of the candidates, says CNN analyst Jeff Greenfield. A candidate cannot package himself in debates the way he can in party advertisements but must be quick on his feet3 to respond to unanticipated4 questions and criticisms, he adds.The potential of debates to damage a vulnerable presidential hopeful is one reason why some candidates, particularly frontrunners10, are reluctant to risk their chances in such an uncontrolled environment--and the fewer debate rules there are, the less control the candidates have. But broadcast presidential debates, both in the primaries and in the general election, are now routine and expected by the American people.Since 1987, the presidential debates have been organized by the bipartisan17 organization, the Commission on Presidential Debates. Its purpose is to sponsor and produce debates for the presidential and vice presidential candidates of the two major parties. In Election 2000, the commission set a threshold18 for the participation of third party candidates in the debates. They must show they have the support--as evidenced in a number of opinion polls--of at least 15 percent of the population.Whatever the quality of the debates in Election 2000, they are unlikely to equal the most famous political debates in American history which occurred long before the invention of radio and television. In 1858, Stephen Douglas debated Abraham Lincoln for a U.S. Senate seat. The debates were held at seven sites throughout Illinois, one for each of the seven congressional districts. Douglas, a pro-slavery Democrat, was the incumbent19.Lincoln was anti-slavery. “ Honest Abe,” as he was endearingly called, lost the Senate race, but two years later was elected the first Republican president of the United States. The Lincoln Douglas debates are still heralded20 for the quality of the discourse at a crucial time in the nation's history.全文翻译候选人之间的辩论在大多数国家都很稀奇,但它们在美国政治生活中已司空见惯,特别是在过去的25年里。

2012美国总统大选电视辩论中的非语言符号传播

2012美国总统大选电视辩论中的非语言符号传播

2012美国总统大选电视辩论中的非语言符号传播作者:刘秦来源:《新闻世界》2013年第02期【摘要】围绕美国总统电视辩论的文本符号的研究很多,而对辩论中文本之外的“语言”——非语言符号的研究较少。

本文以2012年三场美国总统电视辩论为例,运用文本分析的方法分析了辩论中总统候选人的非语言符号及其呈现的辩论者形象。

【关键词】非语言符号形象呈现电视辩论美国总统电视辩论的传统始于1960年民主党候选人肯尼迪和共和党候选人尼克松的选举辩论,在当时共吸引了约6600万观众,占美国人口的36.8%。

在电视和网络日渐普及的今天,电视辩论的影响力超越美国本土在世界范围内受到关注。

对总统辩论中的“辩论文本”研究已有很多,但是对非语言符号的关注较少,事实上,因为非语言符号的“不可抑制性”,它在传递信息尤其是建构形象方面的作用甚至远大于语言符号,因而,研究总统电视辩论中非语言符号有助于得到对总统候选人个性品质的正确认知。

一、非语言符号非语言符号的范围非常广,有研究者曾给它下过定义,“非语言传播包括了传播情境中除却言语刺激之外的一切由人类和环境所产生的刺激,这些刺激对于信息发出者和信息接受者具有潜在的信息价值”,语言符号之外的符号信息都可以被称作非语言符号,例如表情、目光、手势、姿势、身体接触、沉默、服饰等。

语言学家戴维·阿伯克龙比说:“我们用发音器官说话,但我们用整个身体交流”,专门研究非语言符号的艾伯特提出了一个关于符号传递信息的公式:沟通双方相互理解=语调(38%)+表情(55%)+语言(7%),表明了非语言符号在传达信息方面的作用。

借助于大众传媒呈现的辩论已经超越了语言、逻辑、观点等中心性的内容,它集合了人际传播与大众传播的情境,为观众提供了更多直观性的非语言信息,这些直观的信息对观众形成对辩论者的印象极为重要。

赢得首次电视辩论的美国总统肯尼迪就被认为因为电视的帮助“扭转了势头”,因为肯尼迪在电视中的形象“口才极好”、“充满活力”。

2016美国总统大选第一场电视辩论直播 希拉里VS川普谁将成为下一届美国总统?

2016美国总统大选第一场电视辩论直播 希拉里VS川普谁将成为下一届美国总统?

2016美国总统大选第一场电视辩论直播希拉里VS川普谁将成为下一届美国总统?第一场希拉里PK川普的电视辩论视频新鲜出炉啦!!【视频下载】2016美国总统电视辩论第一场美国当地时间26日晚上9点,美国将举行大选首场电视辩论,民主党总统候选人希拉里和共和党总统候选人特朗普将展开正面交锋。

总而言之,如果不出什么意外,美国的下以为总统将在这边这两位中间产生!最新出炉的民调结果显示,民主党总统候选人希拉里领先对手共和党总统候选人特朗普6%。

直播地址大放送:YouTube直播地址 NBC直播地址 CNN直播地址同时,最新民调显示,非裔美国人依然一面倒力挺希拉里,有93%愿投票给希拉里,仅3%给特朗普;希拉里也获得拉丁裔选民的青睐,74%支持希拉里,仅16%挺特朗普。

报道还指出,在受欢迎程度,希拉里和特朗普依然不讨喜,有40%选民较青睐希拉里,另有37%选择特朗普。

民调最新结果:据法媒评论,为了周一的电视公开辩论,希拉里正在准备一场“诺曼底登陆”,她的强项是头脑思考力强,从政经验丰富,熟知法律,政治正确不会出偏,因此被誉为“大脑型”候选人。

但如果希拉里在辩论中过分展示大脑,可能反过来为她减分。

密苏里大学政治传播学教授麦克尼(MitchellMcKinney)向法新社表示,看电视辩论时,没人在意哪个候选人更聪明,有多少知识或了解多少数字。

电视观众喜欢能用几句话简单逻辑地说清自己观点的人。

希拉里是工作狂,对国际国内问题了如指掌,她在解答问题时,要避免落入技术细节。

两位总统候选人对已第一次电视辩论相当重视,希拉里一袭红色套装上阵,而川普则除了标配的西服套装之外,选择了一条宝蓝色的领带!不过,在初选的12场辩论时,特朗普并不总是占上风,他往往后撤,让其他候选人被骂。

他在初选接近尾声,只剩几个对手时,常使出扰乱的招数,用尖刻粗鲁的短语或口号切断对方讲话。

但是,这次电视辩论与初选时有10来人站在台上不同了,这次电视辩论90分钟,特朗普占一半。

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美国大选总统候选人第三场辩论在内华达大学拉斯维加斯分校举行,将从美国东部时间19日21时开始,22时30分结束。

这场90分钟的辩论,将分成六段各15分钟的段落,候选人有两分钟时间可以回答主持人抛出的问题,并有机会回
应对手的谈话。

各大主流视频网站在线直播地址GET:
Youtube直播地址:Youtube 3rd Presidential Debate at University of Nevada,
Las Vegas
NBC直播地址:NBC 3rd Presidential Debate at University of Nevada, Las
Vegas
辩题:
“债务与应得权益”“移民”“经济”“最高法院”“国际热点”以及“总统的健康”。

双方将就每个话题进行15分钟辩论。

主持人:
第三场辩论的主持人是福克斯新闻台主播克里斯·华莱士(Chris Wallace)。

Chris是何人?Chris的父亲Mike Wallace也是美国著名记者和主持人,曾被誉为“世界最高的人”。

华莱士是《福克斯星期天新闻》主播,凭此节目三次获得艾美奖。

华莱士以犀利的采访方式著称,他曾在2006年专访前总统克林顿时,逼问克林顿是否在任职总统时尽力追捕头号恐怖分子本·拉登。

第三场辩论举办地:
内华达大学拉斯维加斯分校(University of Nevada, Las Vegas,缩写UNLV)是一所大型公立综合性全国大学,成立于1957年,位于美国西部大型城市拉斯维加斯,提供本科、硕士、博士、文凭课程四种学位类型。

两者面临的挑战:
希拉里在第三场辩论至少有两大挑战。

第一大挑战是针对电邮门、健康问题和操纵大选等等指控作出回应和解释,第二大挑战是为自己出任总统提出强有力、肯定和有说服力的理由。

而特朗普则必须继续面对侮辱女性言论所造成的影响。

与此同时,他与共和党高层的不和睦已经公开化,特朗普在社交网站“推特”上愤怒发言,谴责共和党,并针对国会众议院议长瑞安连连开火。

辩论策略:
目前,特朗普在公众民调中落后于希拉里。

美媒分析称,这场辩论可能是特朗普在距离大选日不到三个星期的选战中改变颓势的最后机会。

共和党长期的战略分析人士约翰·费西里预计,特朗普和希拉里将以截然不同的方式进行最后一场辩论。

他说,“我认为希拉里将求稳,因为我觉得她认为她保持着领先。

我认为特朗普将破釜沉舟,全力以赴,因为他相信他必须穷追猛赶,并攻击希拉里。


终极PK
①第三场总统候选人辩论:10月19日21:00及其后约90分钟,即北京时间10月20日09:00至约10:30,第三场总统候选人希拉里与特朗普进行电视辩论。

②大选全民投票日:美东时间11月8日夜间,北京时间11月9日12:00左右,大选全民投票初步结果有望出炉。

美国大选全民投票日的投票站关闭时间在北京时间11月9日上午11:00,初步结果有望在一小时左右(中午12:00左右)获悉。

但若选情胶着,则需等待更久;史上最胶着的选情,等到阿拉斯加州、夏威夷这两个最后点票州的选票出来才知道大选结果。

第四阶段:过场与仪式
①选举人投票:美东时间12月19日白天,北京时间12月20日凌晨,由11
月8日全民选票对应产生的“选举人”,将按照全民投票的结果进行对应投票,因而,“选举人投票”基本上可视为过场形式;除非全民投票选出的新总统出现意外不能上任等黑天鹅事故,此选举人投票才会备受关注。

由于美国总统选举实行“选举人团”制度,因此总统大选日的投票结果,产生的实际上是代表50个州和哥伦比亚特区的538位“选举人”。

另外,在总统大选
日,选民还要在联邦范围内进行参议院和众议院选举。

真正的总统选举是在12月第二个星期三之后的第一个星期一举行(2016年是12月19日)。

届时,各州和哥伦比亚特区被推选出的“选举人”将前往各州的首府进行投票。

获270张选票以上的候选人将当选总统,并于2017年1月20日宣誓就职。

②就职典礼:美东时间次年(2017年)1月20日白天,北京时间2017年1月21日凌晨01:00左右,新总统举行就职典礼,准备光荣上任。

美国新总统的就职典礼通常在大选年的次年1月20日举行,但若刚好这天是周日,由于与宗教习俗相冲突,因而就会顺延推迟一天。

2013年1月20日是周日,奥巴马的续任就职典礼就是推迟到1月21日(周一)举行的。

本文来自小站教育留学频道。

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