全球能源展望2021(英文原版)Global-Energy-Perspective-2021
国际能源署2024世界能源展望执行摘要
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国际能源署2024世界能源展望执行摘要报告指出,全球能源市场正面临许多挑战和变化。
能源需求的增长速度正在放缓,但能源供应的多样化和可持续发展仍然是一项重要任务。
随着可再生能源的快速发展,化石燃料的使用可能会下降,但在中期内仍然占主导地位。
报告预测,到2030年全球能源需求将增长30%。
新兴经济体的能源需求将增加60%,由于工业化和城市化的快速发展,这些地区将成为未来能源需求的主要驱动因素。
能源需求增长最快的行业将是交通和建筑,其中交通领域的能源需求将增长50%。
然而,随着气候变化和可再生能源的推动,能源供应也将发生变化。
报告指出,在政策推动下,可再生能源的份额将从目前的13%增至28%,其中大部分增长将来自太阳能和风能。
此外,随着技术的发展,能源储存和电动汽车等领域的创新也将推动能源供应的变化。
报告特别关注石油和天然气市场。
虽然可再生能源的快速发展可能会降低石油和天然气的需求,但在中期内,这两种能源仍然占据主导地位。
然而,报告也指出,对石油和天然气的依赖可能导致能源安全和环境可持续性的问题。
因此,发展替代能源和能源效率仍然是当务之急。
报告还指出,全球能源投资将继续增加,但能源供应的多样化和可持续发展将成为关键。
报告推荐各国政府采取措施,包括提供政策支持、建立清洁能源基础设施、减少能源浪费以及鼓励能源创新等,以促进可持续能源发展。
总体而言,报告强调了能源领域的变革和挑战,包括能源需求的增长放缓、可再生能源的快速发展以及应对气候变化的需求。
为了解决这些问题,各国政府应加强合作,制定清洁能源政策,并加大对可再生能源技术的投资和研发。
只有通过合作和创新,我们才能实现能源的可持续发展,并为未来提供充足的能源供应。
世界能源展望
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气候变化是全球共同挑战
应对气候变化需要全球合作,推动能源转型 是关键。
《世界能源展望》对可再生能源发展的影响和意义
提高可再生能源地位
报告强调了可再生能源在满足全球能源需 求和应对气候变化中的重要作用,有助于
提高可再生能源的地位。
促进政策制定
报告为各国政府制定可再生能源政策提供 了依据,有助于推动可再生能源市场的快 速发展。
全球能源供应情况
供应来源
全球能源供应主要来自石油、天然气、煤炭 等传统能源,以及核能、水能、太阳能、风 能等可再生能源。
地区分布
传统能源主要分布在中东、俄罗斯、北美等地区, 而可再生能源则在全球范围内都有分布,但发展程 度存在差异。
发展趋势
随着环保政策的实施和技术的进步,可再生 能源在全球能源供应中的比重将逐渐增加。
可再生能源为主
可再生能源将成为未来能源结构的主要组成部分, 太阳能、风能等可再生能源将得到广泛应用。
核能发展受限
由于安全和环境问题,核能的发展将受到一定限制 。
THANKS
谢谢您的观看
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生物质能
利用有机废弃物和生物质资源进行转 化产生热能或电能,具有可再生、低 碳、资源丰富等优点。
可再生能源的发展现状
技术进步
随着科技的不断进步,可再生能源的转换效率和 可靠性得到了显著提高。
市场规模
可再生能源市场规模不断扩大,越来越多的企业 加入到这个行业中。
ABCD
政策支持
各国政府纷纷出台政策支持可再生能源的发展, 包括补贴、税收优惠、强制配额等。
可再生能源发展的机遇
环保需求
随着全球环境问题日益严重,可再生能源作为一种清洁、环保的能源 形式,具有巨大的市场前景和发展空间。
麦肯锡发布《2021年全球能源展望》报告
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麦肯锡发布《2021年全球能源展望》报告2021年1月,麦肯锡咨询有限公司(McKinsey & Company)发布题为《2021年全球能源展望》(Global Energy Perspective 2021)报告,提出了每种燃料类型的具体前景,例如天然气、石油、煤炭和氢气,还讨论了碳排放,并提供了关于麦肯锡1.5℃路径的详细观点,其中包括对商业领袖和政策制定者的影响及对价值池和能源投资前景的看法。
该报告预测,化石燃料总需求可能在2027年达到峰值。
具体而言,全球石油需求的峰值可能会在2029年到来,而由于供暖建筑的低碳转型需要的时间更长,天然气需求峰值将出现在2037年。
麦肯锡报告认为,如果世界要与1.5℃目标保持一致,各国就必须做更多的努力。
按照报告中描述的参考情景,2050年全球一半以上的能源需求将依然由化石燃料来满足。
基于全球能源视角参考情景,该报告提出了5个关键见解01源自新冠疫情的长期影响不大在能源领域经历了10年的技术和政策快速转变后,2020年,整个能源领域出现了前所未有的混乱。
在报告的参考情景中,电力、石油和天然气需求需要1~4年才能反弹到新冠肺炎(COVID-19)前的水平,而煤炭需求不会恢复到2019年的水平。
由于新冠肺炎,政府政策在能源转型中更加重要。
鉴于许多经济复苏计划的规模之大,刺激措施的重点在未来几十年塑造能源体系方面发挥着关键作用。
从长远来看,能源系统的根本变化仍在继续,未来几十年将出现快速变化的局面。
在参考情景中,随着电气化的增加和可再生能源在电力系统中的作用迅速增长,化石燃料需求将在2027年达到峰值。
随着脱碳和气候变化在全球政策制定者和商界领袖的议程上越来越重要,以及气候变化的后果逐渐显现并促使采取更大行动,这些转变在未来几年将会加速。
02电力成为能源行业的关键,氢技术改变世界随着能源需求的增加,电力消耗翻了一番,到2050年,它在最终能源消耗中的份额从19%增加到30%。
BP世界能源展望2030(英文)
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The discipline of building a numerical projection sharpens our thinking, but the precise numbers are less important than the underlying story of the challenges we all face and the choices we make in producing and consuming energy.
Energy Outlook 2030
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© BP 2011
Global energy trends
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© BP 2011
The world we live in…
Population
Primary energy
GDP
Billion
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7 Non-OECD
BP 2030世界能源展望英文版(BP Energy Outlook 2030 English Version)
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Note on method and assumptions
This edition updates our view of the likely path of global energy markets to 2030, taking account of developments over the past year. The underlying methodology remains unchanged – we make assumptions on changes in policy, technology and the economy, based on extensive internal and external consultations, and use a range of analytical tools to build a “to the best of our knowledge” view. We focus on the “most likely” base case numbers, to provide a basis for discussion. Of course the future is uncertain, and in the process of building the Outlook we explore the impact of alternative assumptions. While we do touch on some of the key uncertainties, the treatment of energy market risks here is by no means exhaustive. Unless noted otherwise, data definitions are based on the BP Statistical Review of World Energy, and historical energy data through 2010 is consistent with the 2011 edition of the Review . Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expressed in real Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) terms. All data sources are listed on page 88.
21 世纪能源展望_继往开来
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火,本是一种自然现象。当人们发现它是摄取和转换能量的最基本的形式,并加以利用以后,人类便在文明的康庄大道上迅猛前进了。到目前为止,人类对一切能源的利用,归根结底,或从引伸意义上讲,都是以火或用燃烧的形式来实现的。人类日常生活中使用的许多能源,大都通过燃烧取能。火力发电将化石燃料和木材,城市垃圾中的有机物质等生物质能转换成电能等等,都是直接以火的形式来利用能源。而风能、水能和生物质能等本身呢,实质上是太阳熊熊燃烧之后辐射能量所转化出来的。当然,太阳的光和热,不用说,更是烈火高温的直接产物了。核电站燃烧核燃料,通过裂变链式反应产生很高的温度,将水变成蒸汽,推动涡轮机发电,实质上,它还是以燃烧形式从核燃料中取能。即使是燃料电池,尽管并不产生很高的温度,也看不到火光,但本质上依然是燃烧,科学家们将其称之为“冷燃烧”。没有能源,人类便不能生存,更不能发展。因此,完全可以说,人类正是在火的光辉照耀下,迈出了一个又一个大发展的步伐,日益文明昌盛起来。
覆盖着地球表面71%的海洋中蕴藏着巨大而丰富的能源。波浪能、潮汐能、海流能、海水温差能、海水盐浓度差能、海洋生物质能和海水中的氢能等等应有尽有,丰富多彩。对海洋能的利用,目前只有对潮汐能的利用比较成熟。潮汐发电技术发展较快,已达到大规模商业开发阶段。其中,法国朗斯潮汐电站和我国江厦潮汐电站是世界上最大的潮汐发电站。对海洋波浪能、海流能、海水温差能和海水盐浓度差能等等其他形式海洋能的大规模开发利用,目前仍处在研究试验阶段。其中,对波浪能和海水温差能的开发研究进步较快,已建成一些试验发电站或效率较高的发电装置,估计到下个世纪初可达到大规模商业应用阶段。在海洋生物质能的利用方面,虽然也有人建立过种植巨藻的“海洋农场”,但因成本昂贵和管理上的困难,一直未能发展起来。从海水中提取氢、氘和氚,尽管可以实现,也有人在做,但还谈不上大规模地应用。也许将来有一天,热核聚变发电站大批建立起来了,人们会到海水中去寻求大量的氘和氚。
国际能源署(IEA)《世界能源展望》报告-PPT精选文档
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产业机会-节能领域投资增长迅速
• 全球机构投资者9月24日公布的调查报告显示,随着全球 越来越多的大企业采取措施应对气候变暖,世界经济和产 业结构正在发生变化。
– 在英国《金融时报》按市值排名的全球500强企业中,77%的企业 提供了应对气候变暖的相关信息;这一比例高于2019年的72%。 在提供信息的企业中已实施减少温室气体排放计划的占76%,大 大高于上次调查时的48%。英国气候变化资本集团已经悄然布局 中国,其旗下基金的回报率可媲美一流私募股权投资基金。 –
• 据美国能源基金会数据显示,2019年到2020年,中国能 源总投资将达到18万亿元人民币,其中可再生能源和节能、 环保的投资将达到7万亿,平均每年节能环保的投资规模 为3000亿-4000亿元。
产业机会-能源相关领域投资增长迅速
• 日本是《京都议定书》的发起和倡导国,由于国内的能源 资源匮乏,日本一直重视能源的多样化,并在提高能源使 用效率方面做出了很多努力。日本投入巨资开发利用太阳 能、风能、光能、氢能、燃料电池等替代能源和可再生能 源,并积极开展潮汐能、水能、地热能等方面的研究。日 本还把光伏研究作为重点领域来推动,日本提出的宏伟目 标是在2030年之前将太阳能发电量提高20倍。日本企业 如今是光伏发电设备产业的领头羊,仅夏普公司的光伏发 电设备就占到世界的三分之一,在日本排名第二至第四位 的企业的光伏发电设备占24%。如今,日本已经成为全球 最大的光伏设备出口国,占据了其他国家很难赶上的市场 主导地位。2019年5月,日本经济产业省提出一项新计划, 决定在未来5年投入2090亿日元,用于发展清洁汽车技术, 目的是不仅要大大降低燃料消耗,还要降低温室气体的排 放量。
产业机会-能源相关领域投资增长迅速
• 进入21世纪,石油价格从起伏不定到居高不下、国际社会对气候变化 问题的认识开始趋于一致,世界许多国家把发展可再生能源作为缓解 能源供应矛盾、应对气候变化的重要措施。可再生能源在世界范围内 得到迅速发展,一些可再生能源技术的市场应用和产业,如光伏发电、 风电等年增长速度都在20%以上,可再生能源已成为实现能源多样化、 应对全球气候变化和实现可持续发展的重要替代能源,尤其是近两年 来,随着国际石油价格大幅波动以及《京都议定书》的生效,可再生 能源发展得到世界许多国家的广泛关注,成为国际能源领域的热点。 到2019年底,全球可再生能源发电装机突破了2亿千瓦,其中小水电 约8000万千瓦、风电7500万千瓦、生物质发电约5000万千瓦、地热 发电1000万千瓦,以及太阳能发电700多万千瓦。世界风电2019年当 年装机容量接近l500万千瓦,成为继火电和水电之后的第三大主要新 增发电电源,太阳能光伏发电年均增长速度超过了60%,生产能力接 近200万千瓦;生物液体燃料年产量约3500万吨,其中燃料乙醇的年 生产量已经超过了3000万吨,在石油替代方面开始显现作用。
bp能源2023展望中文版解读
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BP能源2023展望中文版解读1. 背景介绍BP(英国石油公司)作为全球知名能源公司,每年都会发布一份关于能源行业趋势和展望的报告。
这份报告成为了全球能源行业的权威之一,对于全球能源市场的发展具有重要的指导意义。
今年,BP发布了2023年的能源展望报告,其中包含了对未来全球能源市场发展趋势的深入分析和展望。
2. 报告内容概览在2023年的能源展望报告中,BP对全球能源市场的供需情况、重要能源资源的开发和利用、可再生能源的发展前景、气候变化对能源产业的影响等方面进行了全面的分析和预测。
据报告显示,全球能源行业将面临诸多挑战和机遇,未来的能源市场将呈现出怎样的发展态势成为了人们关注的焦点。
3. 全球能源供需情况展望据BP的报告预测,随着全球经济的持续增长和人口的增加,全球对能源的需求将继续增长。
各国政府对碳排放的要求将促使传统能源的替代产品,如清洁能源、可再生能源等快速发展。
在未来的能源供需中,清洁能源将扮演越来越重要的角色。
4. 传统能源与可再生能源的竞争与合作传统能源(石油、天然气、煤炭等)与可再生能源(太阳能、风能、水能等)之间的竞争与合作也是报告关注的重点之一。
传统能源的供应稳定,而可再生能源的发展带来了环境友好和可持续发展的优势。
未来,两者如何合作共存,将对全球能源市场产生深远影响。
5. 气候变化对能源行业的影响随着全球气候变暖的加剧,各国政府和国际组织对碳排放的要求越来越严格,这对传统能源行业造成了一定的压力。
然而,这也催生了可再生能源的快速发展,为能源行业带来了新的发展机遇。
6. 新技术对能源行业的影响报告指出,新技术的不断发展将改变能源行业的格局。
特别是在油气勘探开发、清洁能源利用、能源传输等方面,新技术的应用将带来革命性的改变,这也将是未来能源行业发展的关键点。
7. 小结与展望BP2023能源展望报告详细分析了未来全球能源行业的发展趋势和关键挑战。
随着全球经济的持续增长和环境压力的增大,可再生能源将在未来能源市场中占据重要地位。
IEA发布《世界能源展望2020》
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IEA发布《世界能源展望2020》World Energy Outlook 2020 shows how the response to the Covid crisis can reshape the future of energy《2020年世界能源展望》表明,应对Covid危机可以重塑能源的未来Amid deep disruption and uncertainty caused by the pandemic, a surge in well-designed energy policies is needed to put the world on track for a resilient energy system that can meet climate goals在⼤流⾏病造成严重破坏和不确定性的情况下,需要⼤⼒制定精⼼设计的能源政策,以使世界⾛上正轨,建⽴⼀个有弹性的能源体系,实现⽓候稳定⽬标。
It has been a tumultuous year for the global energy system. The Covid-19 crisis has caused more disruption than any other event in recent history, leaving scars that will last for years to come. But whether this upheaval ultimately helps or hinders efforts to accelerate clean energy transitions and reach international energy and climate goals will depend on how governments respond to today’s challenges.对全球能源体系来说,这是动荡的⼀年。
世界能源展望-可再生能源部分
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世界能源展望-可再生能源部分
可再生能源在全球能源中所占比例逐渐上升,越来越多的国家开始接受并使用可再生能源。
除了环境效益,政府也能从中获得经济收益。
目前,各国主要是通过将可再生能源转化为电能来实现大范围使用。
2011年,可再生能源发电新增装机
容量约占所有新增装机容量的一半,其中风电新增装机容量约占40%,光伏发电约占30%,水电约占25%。
截至2011年底,世界可再生能源发电装机容量约为13.6亿千瓦,同比增长8%。
从全球范围来看,可再生能源在能源组成中所占比例将逐渐增加,其中风能发电增长比例较高,光伏发电是新兴产业,而水能发电增长较慢。
可再生能源也在逐渐向依赖高技术和低环境成本的方向靠拢,对环境改善是个契机。
在各个国家和地区,装机容量最多的非水可再生能源国家包括中国、美国、德国、西班牙、意大利、印度和日本,这七个国家的非水装机容量所占世界的非水装机容量比重超过70%。
XXX非水可再生能源装机容量最多,约占44%,其次
为金砖国家,约占26%。
世界各大国都在加强可再生能源的
使用,投入力度与国家实力相对等。
可再生能源不仅是改善环
境、保护环境的契机,也是增加国家实力、提高国家利益的机遇。
风电、太阳能发电、生物质能发电项目都在向大规模发展,同时小型分布式发电项目也在发展。
绿色电力市场也在不断发展。
风电有大规模国家项目、社区风电项目和小型机组项目,其他可再生能源主要是大规模综合项目。
国家允许可再生能源发电离网使用和并网使用,这些措施反映了国家对可再生能源的大量投入和扶持,对可再生能源的装机发电起到了很大的促进作用。
《bp世界能源展望》2023引用格式
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尊敬的读者:在本文中,我们将一起探讨《bp世界能源展望》2023的重要内容及其对我们生活和未来的影响。
这份报告是由国际知名的能源公司BP发布的,它涵盖了关于全球能源市场的深度分析和展望,对于我们了解世界能源格局、发展趋势以及环境可持续性等方面具有重要意义。
让我们来了解一下这份报告对于全球能源市场的深度分析。
在报告中,BP公司对全球能源市场的需求、供应、价格等方面进行了全面的研究和分析,涉及石油、天然气、可再生能源等多个方面。
通过对各种能源资源的分析,我们可以了解到全球能源市场的现状和未来走向,对于能源行业的投资和发展具有重要的参考意义。
在报告中还涉及了对未来能源发展趋势的展望。
随着全球经济的发展和能源需求的持续增长,清洁能源、可再生能源等新能源的发展趋势备受关注。
报告中对新能源的发展前景进行了分析和预测,为我们了解未来能源市场的走向提供了重要参考。
报告还对环境可持续性等问题进行了深入探讨。
全球能源市场的发展和利用不仅需要考虑到经济效益,还需要综合考虑对环境和气候变化的影响。
在报告中,BP公司对能源产业的可持续发展提出了建设性的意见和建议,为我们思考如何更好地平衡能源利用和环境保护提供了重要参考。
《bp世界能源展望》2023报告以其深度和广度的全面分析,为我们了解全球能源市场的现状和未来发展趋势提供了重要的参考依据。
通过对报告中的内容深入理解和分析,我们能够更加全面、深刻的把握全球能源市场的脉动,为我们未来的生活和工作提供参考依据。
从个人角度来看,《bp世界能源展望》2023报告对于能源市场的分析和展望十分详实,对于全球能源格局的理解和把握具有重要意义。
在今后的发展中,我们需要更加注重可持续发展,促进清洁能源的发展和利用,为地球的可持续发展贡献自己的力量。
我希望通过本文的介绍和分析,能够帮助您更加深入地了解《bp世界能源展望》2023报告的重要内容和意义,对于保持地球可持续发展和推动能源行业的发展产生一定的启发和促进作用。
世界能源的英语作文
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世界能源的英语作文The global energy landscape is constantly evolving, presenting both challenges and opportunities as the world grapples with the need for sustainable and reliable energy sources. Energy is the lifeblood of modern civilization, powering our homes, industries, and transportation systems. As the global population continues to grow and economies expand, the demand for energy is expected to rise exponentially in the coming decades. This has led to increased scrutiny and a pressing need to address the environmental impact of our current energy practices.At the heart of the energy debate is the need to balance the growing demand for energy with the imperative to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and mitigate the effects of climate change. Fossil fuels, such as oil, natural gas, and coal, have long been the dominant sources of energy worldwide. However, the burning of these fossil fuels is a major contributor to the release of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, exacerbating the global climate crisis.In response to this challenge, the international community has made significant strides in promoting the development and adoption of renewable energy sources. Solar, wind, hydroelectric, and geothermal power have emerged as viable alternatives, offering cleaner and more sustainable options for energy generation. These renewable energy technologies have seen rapid advancements in recent years, with improvements in efficiency, cost-effectiveness, and accessibility.Solar energy, in particular, has experienced a remarkable surge in global adoption. The falling costs of photovoltaic (PV) panels and the increasing efficiency of solar technology have made solar power an increasingly attractive option for both residential and commercial applications. Countries around the world have implemented policies and incentives to encourage the widespread deployment of solar energy, from rooftop installations to large-scale solar farms.Wind power, another prominent renewable energy source, has also gained significant traction. Onshore and offshore wind farms have been established in many regions, harnessing the power of the wind to generate clean electricity. Technological advancements in wind turbine design and the construction of larger, more efficient turbines have contributed to the growth of the wind energy industry.Hydroelectric power, which utilizes the energy of flowing water to generate electricity, has long been a reliable and renewable source ofenergy. Hydroelectric dams and run-of-river projects have been implemented in various parts of the world, providing a stable and predictable source of electricity. However, the environmental impact of large-scale hydroelectric projects has led to increased scrutiny and the exploration of smaller-scale, more ecologically-friendly hydroelectric solutions.Geothermal energy, which taps into the natural heat beneath the Earth's surface, is another renewable energy source that has gained attention. Geothermal power plants harness this heat to produce steam or hot water, which can then be used to generate electricity. Geothermal energy is particularly prevalent in regions with active volcanic and tectonic activity, such as Iceland, New Zealand, and the western United States.In addition to these renewable energy sources, the world is also exploring the potential of emerging technologies, such as nuclear fusion, hydrogen fuel cells, and energy storage solutions. Nuclear fusion, the process that powers the Sun, holds the promise of providing a virtually limitless and clean source of energy. While the technology is still in the research and development stage, the potential of nuclear fusion to revolutionize the energy landscape is widely recognized.Hydrogen fuel cells, which convert the chemical energy of hydrogeninto electricity, have also gained attention as a clean and efficient alternative to traditional fossil fuel-powered systems. Hydrogen can be produced using renewable energy sources, making it a potentially carbon-neutral energy carrier. The transportation sector, in particular, has seen increasing adoption of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, as automakers seek to reduce their carbon footprint.Energy storage solutions, such as batteries, pumped-storage hydroelectricity, and thermal energy storage, have become increasingly important in the integration of renewable energy sources into the grid. These technologies allow for the storage of excess energy generated during periods of high production, which can then be released during times of high demand. This helps to balance the intermittent nature of some renewable energy sources, such as solar and wind, and ensures a more reliable and stable energy supply.Despite the progress made in the development and adoption of renewable energy sources, significant challenges remain. The transition to a more sustainable energy future requires substantial investment, infrastructure development, and coordinated global efforts. Policymakers, industry leaders, and the public must work together to overcome barriers, such as the high upfront costs of renewable energy technologies, grid integration challenges, and the entrenched dominance of fossil fuels in many parts of the world.Furthermore, the equitable distribution of energy access remains a pressing global issue. Millions of people around the world still lack access to reliable and affordable energy, hindering their economic and social development. Addressing this energy poverty through the deployment of renewable energy solutions in underserved communities is a crucial component of the global energy transition.In conclusion, the world's energy landscape is undergoing a profound transformation, driven by the urgent need to address the environmental and social impacts of our current energy practices. The transition to a more sustainable energy future is a complex and multifaceted challenge, requiring the concerted efforts of governments, industries, and individuals. By embracing renewable energy sources, investing in emerging technologies, and promoting equitable energy access, we can work towards a more secure, sustainable, and resilient global energy system that meets the needs of present and future generations.。
派克研究公司预测全球生物燃料市场价值2021年将翻一番
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关于世界能源的英语作文
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关于世界能源的英语作文Title: The Global Energy Landscape: Challenges and Opportunities。
Energy is the lifeblood of modern civilization,powering our homes, industries, and economies. As theworld's population continues to grow and economies expand, the demand for energy is ever-increasing. However, theglobal energy landscape is facing unprecedented challenges, ranging from resource depletion to environmental degradation. In this essay, we will explore the currentstate of the world's energy resources, the challenges we face, and the opportunities for a sustainable energy future.Firstly, let us examine the primary sources of energy that power the world today. Fossil fuels, including coal, oil, and natural gas, have long been the dominant sourcesof energy. They provide the majority of the world's electricity and are essential for transportation and heating. However, their widespread use has led toenvironmental problems such as air pollution, greenhouse gas emissions, and climate change.Moreover, fossil fuels are finite resources, and their extraction often comes with significant environmental and social costs. As we continue to deplete these resources, we must explore alternative sources of energy to meet our growing needs sustainably.Renewable energy sources, such as solar, wind, hydroelectric, and geothermal power, offer promising alternatives to fossil fuels. Unlike fossil fuels, renewable energy sources are abundant and environmentally friendly. Solar and wind energy, in particular, have seen remarkable growth in recent years, driven by technological advancements and declining costs.However, the widespread adoption of renewable energy faces several challenges. One major hurdle is the intermittency of solar and wind power, which depends on weather conditions and time of day. Energy storage technologies, such as batteries and pumped hydro storage,are essential for overcoming this challenge and ensuring a reliable supply of renewable energy.Another challenge is the need for infrastructure upgrades and grid modernization to accommodate the integration of renewable energy sources. Building aresilient and flexible energy infrastructure will require significant investments and collaboration between governments, businesses, and communities.Furthermore, the transition to renewable energy must be equitable, ensuring that vulnerable communities have access to clean and affordable energy. Energy poverty remains a pressing issue in many parts of the world, and addressingit requires innovative solutions and inclusive policies.In addition to renewable energy, improving energy efficiency is critical for reducing energy consumption and mitigating environmental impacts. Energy-efficient technologies and practices can help us achieve significant energy savings across all sectors, from buildings and transportation to industry and agriculture.Furthermore, advancing research and development in clean energy technologies is essential for driving innovation and accelerating the transition to a sustainable energy future. Investments in areas such as advanced battery storage, carbon capture and storage, and nuclear fusion have the potential to revolutionize the way we produce and use energy.In conclusion, the world faces complex challenges in meeting its growing energy demands while mitigating environmental impacts and addressing climate change. However, these challenges also present opportunities for innovation, collaboration, and sustainable development. By embracing renewable energy, improving energy efficiency, and investing in clean energy technologies, we can build a more resilient, equitable, and sustainable energy futurefor generations to come.。
全球新能源在挑战中快速发展
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全球新能源在挑战中快速发展□ 罗佐县2021年,全球有140多个国家明确了各自的碳中和发展目标及路径。
鉴于碳中和目标的实现及路径选择很大程度上依赖能源的转型,新能源尤其具有话语权,所以在2021年这个特殊的历史节点,全球的新能源呈现快速发展态势。
但是新能源在其发展进程中也并非一帆风顺,出现了一些矛盾,对此各国作出了积极的政策调整。
全球新能源在欧美带领下继续快跑2021年,尽管光伏电池板和风机原材料价格都出现了不同程度的上涨,但全球光伏、风电及其他可再生能源的装机量依然加速增长。
国际能源署发布《2021年可再生能源》,预计2021年全球风电、光伏及其他可再生能源发电新增装机总容量将达到约290吉瓦,与2020年相比增长3%,仅光伏装机容量就占可再生能源新增装机容量的50%位于浙江省舟山市岱山县大衢岛的风电机组。
视觉中国 供图以上,其次是风电和水电。
欧美作为全球主要发达经济体,在新能源发展方面一直是重要标杆和引领者。
(一)美国风电光伏在能源新政推动下发展皆提速2021年欧美在新能源的发展上再进一步,尤其是美国的变化颇具代表性。
拜登总统入主白宫之后及时出台能源新政,重返《巴黎协定》具有划时代意义,政策调整促进新能源发展提速。
据EIA (美国能源信息署)的数据,2021年第二季度美国太阳能产业新增发电装机容量达到5.7吉瓦,这一时期恰是拜登能源新政开始见效的时期。
美国2021年全年新增的太阳能发电装机容量预计达到26.4吉瓦。
这一年税收激励对于光伏产业的发展有很大的推动作用。
联邦政府层面针对光伏的最直接鼓励手段是投资税抵免。
2021年光伏发电项目享受着22%的投资税抵免优惠。
2021年12月美国国会宣布将通过一项法案将太阳能投资税收抵免制度再延长两年。
美国能源部可再生能源办公室发布最新报告预计,到2035年太阳能将供应美国40%的电力,到2050年这一比例将进一步提升至45%。
剑桥能源预测,2021年美国新增公用事业级光伏发电装机容量将超过20吉瓦。
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Global Energy Perspective 2021 January 2021Editor’s noteWe publish this long-term energy outlook at the start of 2021, after a year that has brought extraordinary challenges. Economies worldwide have experienced profound effects of the global health crisis, triggered by widespread public-health responses aiming to control the virus. Energy markets have reflected the uncertainty and shown exceptional movements. At the beginning of the crisis, plunging fuel demand in many key markets was reflected by prices: by the end of March 2020, the price of gas hit a 30-year low, whereas the price of oil, also affected by supply shocks, showed the largest single-day decline in the past 22 years. As economies have reopened, energy commodities have shown a partial rebound: for example, by the end of third quarter 2020, oil demand in China was back at pre-COVID-19 levels, and 50 percent of the decline was recovered in Europe and North America.In this volatile environment, long-term scenarios are more important than ever. To address the various pathways for the energy transition, our Global Energy Perspective presentsfour energy scenarios, which are based on contributions from hundreds of McKinsey expert practitioners worldwide.• The Reference Case is a forward-leaning “continuation of existing trends” outlook. This scenario reflects our expectations of how current technologies will evolve and incorporates current policies and an extrapolation of key policy trends.• The Accelerated Transition case assesses ten conceivable shifts that could happen at an accelerated pace.• The McKinsey 1.5°C Pathway offers a view on the shifts required to limit global warming to1.5°C in hopes of stabilizing the climate.• The Delayed Transition case mirrors the Accelerated Transition case and assumes that ata global scale, COVID-19 recovery measures fail to go hand in hand with green policies tostimulate the energy transition.The introductory chapter describes these four energy scenarios in further detail. In addition, we detail two economic scenarios that reflect the uncertainty of economic recovery.We use these scenario outlooks—and the underlying models—to support hundreds of clients around the world and across a broad range of sectors, helping leaders navigate the transitions in energy systems. Reflecting on the work for our Global Energy Perspective and discussions with many experts, we identified some common themes that stand out in this year’s edition:A As the world rapidly exhausts its carbon budget, there is growing momentum towarddecarbonization of the global economy. Policy makers, business leaders, investors, andconsumers are showing increasing levels of ambition to reshape energy systems. Yet the CO2emissions projected in our Reference Case and even in our Accelerated Transition case remain far from the 1.5°C Pathway. This shows that to further reduce emissions, significant additional action is needed, and more ambitious initiatives and policy measures must be specified and implemented.B Fundamental trends shaping the energy transition in the coming decade remain in place andappear resilient to the COVID-19 crisis. Renewable resources continue to decline in cost. When combined with battery technology, they become cost competitive with fossil-fuel-based power generation in many parts of the world. Similarly, electric vehicles (EVs) are likely to become the most economic choice in the next five years in many parts of the world. In the case of hydrogen, a further acceleration in ramp-up plans and commitments is likely.C Fossil fuels continue to play an important role in the energy system in our Reference Case.Fossil fuels will remain relevant despite a peak in oil demand in the late 2020s and a peak in gas demand in the mid-2030s. Yet even if oil and gas demand returns to pre-COVID-19 levels in a few years, it will not return to its pre-COVID-19 growth path.D This year’s report includes several new elements and deep dives. Specifically, we havededicated full chapters to hydrogen, the demand outlook for coal and its role in the power sector, a perspective on the 1.5°C Pathway, and an outlook for energy investments and value pools.This report is structured into five parts: Part one provides a perspective on the development of fundamental drivers for the global energy system. Part two provides an outlook for power systems, addressing the development of power demand as well as the evolution of power supply. Part three presents outlooks per energy type and carrier, including natural gas, oil, coal, and hydrogen. Part four discusses carbon emissions and offers a detailed perspective on the McKinsey 1.5°C Pathway. And the final part reflects on implications for business leaders and policy makers, including a view on value pools and an energy-investment outlook.We hope this report is an interesting read that helps shape your thinking on the energy transition.Key insights from the Global Energy Perspective Reference CaseLong-term demand impact of COVID-19 is modestEnergy demand rebounds quicklypost-COVID-19,and the impacts of behavioral changes due to the crisis are small compared with fundamental shifts such as electrification Stimulus packages shape energy systems in the decades to come Power wins andhydrogen changes thelandscapeElectricity demandgrows significantlythrough directelectrification andthe uptake of greenhydrogenRenewables quicklyramp up and account forhalf of power generationby 2035Peaks in fossil-fueldemand continue tooccur earlierPeaks in demand forhydrocarbons occurearlier than projected(oil peaks in 2029 andgas in 2037)Yet fossil fuels continueto play a major rolein the energy systemby 2050, driven bygrowth in areas such aschemicals and aviationChange is tooslow to reach the1.5°C PathwayDespite rapid shifts inthe Reference Case,global greenhousegas (GHG) emissionsdecline by only around25 percent by 2050,implying a 3.5°C pathwayMoving to the 1.5°CPathway requiresstronger ambitionsand acceleratedimplementation at aglobal scaleInvestment flowsremain stable over thenext 15 yearsRenewables in theenergy-investmentmix grow at the expenseof conventionalpower generation, butfossil fuels maintain alarge shareSeveral tipping pointslie ahead in the energytransition; trackingsignposts will helpbusiness leaders assessthe direction and paceof change in the yearsto come12345 Source: McKinsey Energy Insights Global Energy Perspective 2021, December 2020Executive summaryLong-term demand impact of COVID-19 is modest1After a decade of rapid technological and policy shifts in energy sectors, 2020 has brought unprecedented disruption across the energy landscape. In ourReference Case, a rebound to pre-COVID-19 demand levels takes one to four years for power and oil and gas, whereas coal demand does not return to 2019 levels.As a result of COVID-19, government policies are more important in the energy transition. Given the unparalleled size of many economic-recoverypackages, the focus of the stimulus measures plays a key role in shaping energy systems in the decades to come.In the longer term, fundamental shifts in the energy system continue, and the coming decades will see a rapidly changing landscape. In our Reference Case, demand for fossil fuels peaks in 2027, aselectrification increases and the role of renewables in power systems grows rapidly. These shifts accelerate in the coming years, asdecarbonization and climate change are increasingly important on the agendas of global policy makers and business leaders, and as the consequences of climate change play out and prompt greater action. As the speed and magnitude of these shifts remain uncertain, this report covers four long-term scenarios for the decades to come: the Reference Case, the Accelerated and Delayed Transition cases, and the McKinsey 1.5°C Pathway.Power wins and hydrogen changes the landscape2Power consumption doubles as energy demand electrifies, increasing its share of final energy consumption from 19 to 30 percent in 2050.COVID-19 has limited impact on long-term power-demand growth.At the same time, low-cost renewables dominate power markets, outcompeting existing fossil assets inmost regions before 2030. By 2036, half of the global power supply comes from intermittent renewable sources.As green hydrogen becomes cost competitive in the 2030s, “indirect” power demand for electrolysis accounts for approximately 40 percent of electricitydemand growth from 2035 to 2050, primarily in industry and transport.To enable this shift to intermittent resources, both traditional capacity and new, flexible capacity are needed to ensure system security. Batteries play an important role, but gas peakers also remain relevant to cover longer spells of low output for renewables.Peaks in fossil-fuel demand continue to occur earlier3Oil-demand growth slows in the current decade and peaks in the late 2020s, driven by the decline in road transport and the impact of COVID-19. Demand in major markets, such as the United States and the European Union, has alreadypeaked and shown gradual decline for more than a decade. Continued demand growth is driven by chemicals and aviation, as well as by emerging economies. Despite significant decline, new oil supply is still needed in the foreseeable future.Gas demand continues to grow until the late 2030s. Sectors with the largest growth include chemicals, other industry, and buildings in non-OECD Asia and the Americas. Following the peak, declining demand for gas is driven by the power sector, as gas shifts its role from baseload provider to flexibility provider.Coal continues its decline. In the power sector, gas and, increasingly, renewables are moreeconomical alternatives. Until 2035, heavy industry, particularly iron and steel and cement, is expected toshow net growth driven by economic growth in India and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)¹Despite the long-term decline in demand for all three fossil fuels, each continues to play a key role in theglobal energy landscape in the Reference Case. Without further decarbonization policies, more than half of all global energy demand comes from fossil fuels by 2050.In the Accelerated Transition case, both coal and oil demand will be 22 percent lower compared with the Reference Case in 2050 (and 52 and 27 percent lower versus 2019, respectively).¹ Includes Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam. Source: McKinsey Energy Insights Global Energy Perspective 2021, December 2020Change is too slow to reach the 1.5°C Pathway4The projected CO2 emissions in the Reference Case are far from pathways that would limit global warming to 1.5°C. In addition, global energy-related emissions in the Reference Case remain flat until 2030, followed by a gradual, approximately 25 percent decline until 2050.By contrast, CO 2 emissions need to reach net zero by 2050 to move to the 1.5°C Pathway. The comingdecade is particularly crucial, requiring a decline in global emissions of more than 50 percent by 2030. This requires substantial and rapid changes in how societies around the globe fuel their economies.Despite the increased momentum towarddecarbonization, many governments still need to translate ambitious targets into specific policies. Furthermore, the Reference Case can be interpretedas a sign that additional ambitious initiatives and policy measures are needed to move closer to the 1.5°C Pathway. In other words, not enough is being done.Investment flows remain stable over the next 15 years5Following recovery from the COVID-19 shock, investments in the energy system steadily grow toward 2035. Despite some fundamental shifts in underlying drivers, such as the rapid growth in renewables and peaking oil demand, the energy-investment mix remains remarkably stable, as shifts in volumes are offset by further declines in the cost of renewables and increasingly expensive oil and gas supply.In the Reference Case, oil and gas still represent 50 percent of energy investments by 2035. Investments in power-generation assets remain nearly flat, as strong growth in installed capacity is matched by a strong decline in capital expenditures for renewable technologies. Oil and gas investments grow by an average of 3 percent a year through 2030 versus 2020 lows, despite slowing demand growth driven by increasingly expensive projects to replace depleting existing production. Giventhe growing attention of governments, investors, and customers to the energy transition, theprofitability of all energy segments continues to vary significantly among countries and through cycles.Thus, in light of these substantial shifts, business leaders and investors face important strategic questions. To navigate the transition, they must identify and track key signposts that indicate the direction and speed of change.Source: McKinsey Energy Insights Global Energy Perspective 2021, December 2020Our Global Energy Perspective offers a detailed demand outlook across key dimensions.Illustrative examples 146 countries• 45 in Asia • 43 in Europe • 31 in Africa • 27 in Americas55 energy products• Natural gas • Coal• Electricity • Hydrogen• Oil products (including gasoline, diesel, and HFO)• Renewable resources (solar, wind, and hydro)Our report assesses energy systems across countries, sectors, and energy productsSource: McKinsey Energy Insights Global Energy Perspective 2021, December 202030 sectorsTransport• Road transport (including buses, trucks, and cars)• Rail • Aviation • Marine• Other transport Buildings• Residential buildings • Commercial buildings HeatIndustry• Iron and steel • Chemicals • Manufacturing • Construction • Mining • Agriculture • Re ning• Other industry Power• Electricity generation • Hydrogen productionIn the Reference Case, fossil fuels continue to play an importantrole in energy systems.In 2020, total energy demand drops by 7 percent due toreduced (economic) activity as a result of COVID-19. Ittakes until late 2021 to see energy demand return to pre-COVID-19 levelsGas continues to increase its share of global energydemand in the next ten to 15 years—the only fossil fuelto do so—and then peaks in the late 2030s. Still, gasdemand in 2050 is 5 percent higher versus today’s levelOil-demand growth slows substantially, with a projectedpeak in the late 2020s followed by a 10 percent declineby 2050, mainly driven by slowing car-park growth,enhanced engine efficiency in road transport, andincreased electrificationCoal demand decreases almost 40 percent from 2019 to2050, driven mainly by the phaseout of coal plants in thepower sector across regions Oil demand peaks in the late 2020s and gas in the 2030s, whereas coal shows a steady declineSource: McKinsey Energy Insights Global Energy Perspective 2021, December 2020Primary energy demand per fossil fuel, million TJCAGR, %2017–35CAGR, %2035–50Gas0.7OilCoal20030040050060019902000201020202030204020502027 Fossil-100ReferenceGlobal CO₂ emissions peak at around 33 GtCO₂ in 2030, but the trajectory remains far from the 1.5°C Pathway.COVID-19 has triggered a drop in global CO 2 emissions of around 7 percent. In the Reference Case, energy-related CO 2 emissions peak by 2023, followed by a steady decline of approximately 25 percent until 2050In the Accelerated Transition scenario, emissions by 2050 are 20 percent lower than in the Reference Case, reflecting a more rapid shift to renewable sources for power generation as well as an accelerated uptake of new, lower-carbon technologies in end-use segments, such as road transport and industryHowever, Reference Case CO 2 emissions, and even Accelerated Transition emissions, remain far from the 1.5ºC Pathway. CO 2 emissions by 2050 need to drop by 90 and 85 percent versus projected levels, respectively, to comply with the requirements for the 1.5ºC Pathway. In fact, CO 2 emissions need to show an annual decrease similar to the drop in 2020 for the next 30 years to reach the target by 2050Source: McKinsey Energy Insights Global Energy Perspective 2021, December 2020Global energy-related CO₂ emissions, GtCO₂ p.a.In the Reference Case, the global carbon budget for 1.5°C Pathway is exhausted by 2030Reference Case Accelerated Transition 1.5ºC Pathway35302520199020502040202020102000203015105Get in touch About us For more information about our Global Energy Perspective,please contact us:Christer Tryggestad Senior Partner Namit SharmaSenior PartnerOle RolserPartnerBram Smeets Associate Partner and Senior Solution Leader Jasper van de Staaij Associate Partner and Senior Solution LeaderTamara GruenewaldSolution Leaderinfo_energyinsights@/energyinsightsWe are a global market intelligence and analytics group focused onthe energy sector. 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