2016-01 Fuel Oil Market Outlook 燃料油市场分析
燃料油贸易操作流程
燃料油贸易操作流程 Document serial number【UU89WT-UU98YT-UU8CB-UUUT-UUT108】燃料油贸易操作流程1、燃料油的定义燃料油的概念有广义和狭义之分，广义上说，所有可用做燃料的油品都可成为燃料油；狭义上是指特定类型的部分重油，这里指的是狭义上的概念燃料油(Fuel Oil)属于重油，为原油提炼过程中较后期的产品2、国内燃料油分类国内通常将燃料油分为三类：5-7号燃料油除5-7号之外更轻或更重的燃料油。
其中包括250号，也称为重油或工业燃料油其它重油制品(包括按重量计含油超过70%的制品)，此项主要指乳化重油，如委内瑞拉奥里油等3、国外燃料油分类国外通常按50℃时的运动粘度将燃料油分为80CST、180 CST和380CST三大类。
新加坡、AG等地每个交易日都产生一个以180CST和380CST为基本品种的收市价格80CST燃料油：指50℃时的粘度低于80CST的油品180CST燃料油：指50℃时的粘度在80CST与180CST之间的油品380CST燃料油：指50℃时的粘度在180CST与380CST之间的油品在此基础上，根据含硫量还可分为高硫、中硫和低硫燃料油★CST为运动粘度单位。
附：普氏PGA042新加坡收市价4、燃料油的指标国内大多数用户需求的燃料油质量标准5、普氏对燃料油的质量要求二、燃料油贸易1、中国燃料油市场状况我国燃料油以进口为主，按照2003年的数据，进口比例达到55%，粗略估计2004年的进口比例将达到70%国产燃料油主要由中国石油和中国石化两大集团下属的炼油厂生产，以及少量的地方炼厂生产国产燃料油的产量呈下降趋势，其主要原因是国内炼油厂为提高汽柴油等轻油的收率，增加了进口轻质原油提炼的比例电力行业是我国燃料油消费第一大户，占全国消费量的40%以上石油、石化行业是第二大消费行业2、我国燃料油产量及进口量3、燃料油的用户燃料型用户包括电厂、陶瓷厂、钢铁厂、玻璃厂等，占总消耗量的70%左右。
2024年燃料油市场分析现状
燃料油市场分析现状概述燃料油是一种广泛应用于能源领域的燃料，主要用于发电、工业生产、航运和道路交通等方面。
燃料油市场是全球能源市场中的重要组成部分，其价格波动和供需关系对全球能源市场产生着重要影响。
本文将对燃料油市场的现状进行分析，包括市场规模、主要参与方、供需关系以及未来发展趋势等方面。
市场规模燃料油市场规模庞大，每年消耗量巨大。
根据国际能源署的数据，全球燃料油需求量在近几年保持稳定增长，预计2025年将突破6500万桶/天。
亚太地区是全球燃料油市场的核心区域，占据全球市场份额的四分之一以上。
此外，欧洲和北美地区也是重要的燃料油消费市场。
主要参与方燃料油市场的参与主体包括供应商、消费商和交易商等。
供应商方面，主要有国际石油公司和石油生产国家及其国有石油公司等。
消费商主要包括发电厂、工业企业、航运公司和运输公司等。
交易商则是连接供需双方的重要环节，他们通过销售和采购燃料油进行利润获取。
供需关系燃料油市场的供需关系主要受到以下因素的影响：1.经济发展水平：经济活动的增长对燃料油市场需求产生直接影响。
随着全球经济的增长，燃料油需求预计将呈现稳定增长趋势。
2.石油价格：石油价格是燃料油市场供需关系的关键因素。
随着国际油价的波动，燃料油价格也会出现相应的变动，进而影响供需平衡。
3.环境政策：全球对环境保护的关注度逐渐提升，燃料油市场的供需关系正在发生变化。
不少国家出台了减少燃料油使用的政策措施，推动清洁能源的发展，这对燃料油市场产生了一定的压力和挑战。
发展趋势燃料油市场未来的发展趋势可能会呈现以下几个方面的特点：1.清洁能源替代：全球对燃料油的使用逐渐受到限制，清洁能源将成为未来能源市场的主要趋势。
可再生能源、天然气以及核能等新型能源将逐渐取代燃料油。
2.区域市场发展不平衡：随着全球经济重心的转移和区域发展的不平衡性，燃料油市场的发展也将呈现地区差异。
亚太地区的燃料油市场将继续保持较高增长率，而北美和欧洲地区的市场增长将相对较慢。
原油、燃润料简介
在线培训——原油、燃润料简介一、国际原油市场简介：主要指纽约商品期货交易所WTI原油和伦敦国际石油交易所BRENT原油1、WTI原油：WTI是英文West Texas Intermediate的缩写，WTI原油由美国得克萨斯州西部油田出产的原油混合而成，是一种低硫轻质原油。
纽约商品交易所(NYMEX)内原油期货就是以美国西得克萨斯出产的“中间基原油（WTI）”为基准油，所有在美国生产或销往美国的原油，在计价时都以轻质低硫的WTI作为基准油。
因为美国这个超级原油买家的实力，加上纽约期交所本身的影响力，以WTI为基准油的原油期货交易，就成为全球商品期货品种中成交量的龙头。
通常来看，该原油期货合约具有良好的流动性及很高的价格透明度，是世界原油市场上的三大基准价格之一，公众和媒体平时谈到油价突破多少美元时，主要就是指这一价格。
2、Brent原油：世界原油相当大数量的交易量，却不是以WTI原油、而是以同样轻质低硫的北海布伦特（Brent）原油为基准油作价。
1988年6月23日，伦敦国际石油交易所（IPE）推出布伦特原油期货合约，包括西北欧、北海、地中海、非洲以及也门等国家和地区，均以此为基准，由于这一期货合约满足了石油工业的需求，被认为是“高度灵活的规避风险及进行交易的工具”，也跻身于国际原油价格的基准。
布伦特原油期货及现货市场所构成的布伦特原油定价体系，最多时竟涵盖了世界原油交易量的80%，即使在纽约原油价格日益重要的今天，全球仍有约60%的原油交易量，是以北海布伦特原油为基准油作价。
布伦特原油和WTI在品质和价格上均非常接近，大多数情况下二者涨跌基本同步。
3、中东各大产油国生产的或从中东销售往亚洲的原油，其作价的基准油，既不是纽约的WTI，也非伦敦的布伦特原油，而是阿联酋的高硫“迪拜（Dubai）”原油。
这就是赫赫有名的OPEC(石油输出国组织)油价，它往往可以反映亚洲对原油的需求状况。
其现货主要在新加坡和东京交易，期货交易量则很小。
盘点2016年中国燃料油供需及进口燃料油状况
2016年中国燃料油供需概况及进口燃料油数据分析2016年中国燃料油供需概况：供应方面，2016年的燃料油市场进口直馏燃料油急剧下滑，燃料油净进口量大幅萎缩。
年内原油加工量继续提升，燃料油产量由2313万吨小幅提升至2556万吨，产出率却继续走跌，因中石油、中石化炼厂油浆产品自下半年开始逐步自用为主。
而净进口量共计约227万吨，整体较去年下滑约70%，下滑表现明显。
需求方面，2016年表观消费量为2783.5万吨，较去年3058万吨的量，下滑幅度为9%。
国内燃料油需求下滑主要受到进口炼化燃料油消费大幅下滑的拖累，地方用进口燃料油加工量压缩至200万吨水平，较往年下滑约60%左右。
2016年中国燃料油进口情况2016年，中国5-7号燃料油进口共计1162万吨，与去年相比减少26%。
进口燃料油按贸易方式分:一般贸易方式占5％，保税仓库货物贸易占95%，国内进口需求仍以保税燃料油为主.地方炼厂进口原油如火如荼，作为炼化用的直馏燃料油进口量仅占国内进口燃料油总量的10%左右。
而进口保税油，因船运市场低迷，国际航线船舶多靠泊新加坡、香港等地加油，令国内进口燃料油整体进口低迷。
中国燃料油进口来源国逐步单一、固定化，随着直馏燃料油需求的萎缩，来自欧洲、中东等地的燃料油进口基本消失。
委内瑞拉、新加坡、马来西亚韩国和俄罗斯成为排名前几的来源国，作为保税船燃和直馏燃料油原料来使用。
其中委内瑞拉与中石油签订的长期合约，主要以进口保税380cst燃料油为主，而新加坡和马来西亚地区多为浮仓调和燃料油产品。
而来自俄罗斯的产品年度下滑至约110万吨水平，与去年256万吨的进口量相比下滑57%。
日本、韩国地区进口燃料油多为国内优质保税船舶燃料的主要来源。
中国燃料油市场供需现状及进出口贸易情况分析
中国燃料油市场供需现状及进出口贸易情况分析一、定义及分类燃料油的性质主要取决于原油本性以及加工方式，而决定燃料油品质的主要规格指标包括粘度（Viscosity），硫含量（SulfurContent），倾点(PourPoint)等供发电厂等使用的燃料油还对钒（Vanadium）、钠(Sodium)含量作有规定。
大部分石油产品均可用作燃料，但燃料油在不同的地区却有不同的解释。
欧洲对燃料油的概念一般是指原油经蒸馏而留下的黑色粘稠残余物，或它与较轻组分的掺和物，主要用作蒸汽炉及各种加热炉的燃料或作为大型慢速柴油燃料及作为各种工业燃料。
但在美国则指任何闪点不低于37.8°C的可燃烧的液态或可液化的石油产品，它既可以是残渣燃料油（ResidualFuelOil，亦称HeavyFuelOil）也可是馏分燃料油（HeatingOil）。
馏分燃料油不仅可直接由蒸馏原油得到（即直馏馏分），也可由其它加工过程如裂化等再经蒸馏得到。
燃料油作为炼油工艺过程中的最后一种产品，产品质量控制有着较强的特殊性，最终燃料油产品形成受到原油品种、加工工艺、加工深度等许多因素的制约。
根据不同的标准，燃料油可以进行以下分类：1、根据出厂时是否形成商品，燃料油可以分为商品燃料油和自用燃料油。
商品燃料油指在出厂环节形成商品的燃料油；自用燃料油指用于炼厂生产的原料或燃料而未在出厂环节形成商品的燃料油。
2、根据加工工艺流程，燃料油亦叫做重油，可以分为常压重油、减压重油、催化重油和混合重油。
常压重油指炼厂催化、裂化装置分馏出的重油（俗称油浆）；混合重油一般指减压重油和催化重油的混合，包括渣油、催化油浆和部分沥青的混合。
3、根据用途，燃料油分为船用内燃机燃料油和炉用燃料油两大类，两类都包括馏分油和残渣油。
馏分油一般是由直馏重油和一定比例的柴油混合而成，用于中速或高速船用柴油机和小型锅炉。
后者主要是减压渣油、或裂化残油或二者的混合物，或调入适量裂化轻油制成的重质石油燃料油，供低低速柴油机、部分中速柴油机、各种工业炉或锅炉作为燃料。
燃料油营销策略
03
燃料油营销渠道策略
直接销售渠道
建立自主销售网络
通过建立自己的销售网站、门店或者销售团 队，直接向终端用户销售燃料油，可以减少 中间环节，提高利润。
利用电子商务平台
利用电子商务平台，如淘宝、京东等，开展线上销 售，简化购买流程，提高销售效率。
建立会员体系
通过建立会员体系，提供会员专享优惠和积 分兑换等福利，增加客户粘性，提高客户满 意度。
产品差异化与竞争优势
产品差异化
在产品质量、性能、服务等方面进行差异化，以满足不同客户的需求。例如 ，提供更加清洁、高效的燃料油产品，或者提供更加周到的售后服务等。
竞争优势
通过产品差异化，提升企业在市场中的竞争力。与竞争对手相比，企业可以 提供更加符合客户需求的产品和服务，从而获得更多的市场份额。
定价策略与市场反应
广告宣传策略
电视广告
通过电视媒体宣传燃料油的产品特性和品牌形象，提高 消费者对产品的认知度和好感度。
01
网络广告
利用互联网平台，如搜索引擎、社交 媒体和视频网站等，进行精准营销和 品牌推广，吸引目标客户群体。
02
03
户外广告
在公共场所和交通枢纽等地方设置广 告牌和灯箱等宣传品，提高品牌知名 度和曝光率。
定价策略
定价策略应根据市场需求、竞争状况以及企业自身条件等因素进行制定。例如，可以根据市场供求关 系、产品成本以及竞争对手的定价等因素来确定价格。
市场反应
定价策略实施后，需要密切关注市场反应，以便及时调整价格策略。如果价格过高或过低，都会对企 业的销售产生不利影响。因此，企业需要对市场反应进行及时分析，以制定更加合理的定价，各家公司需要更加注重市场需求和客户体验，采取创新性的营销手段来提高品牌价值 和市场竞争力。
国际燃料油市场月评
市场MARKET 国际燃料油市场月评市场回顾
2月份，新加坡市场燃料油价格整体呈现连续上涨走势。
根据PLATTS数据，新加坡港0.5%硫含量380CST燃料油1月供船均价495.5美元/吨，环比上月的441.4美元/吨上涨54.2美元，涨幅为12.3%。
同期，舟山港0.5%
硫含量380CST燃料油2月供船均价490.7美
元/吨，较新加坡供船价格低4.8美元。
需求方面。
根据新加坡海事港务局统计，1月份新加坡市场船用油销量为450.3万吨，环比增加5%，同比下降需求增加主要原因是中国春节假期前多数船东提前订购燃油所致。
1月份在新加坡港口加注燃油的船舶数量为3593艘，平均每艘船舶的加油量为1253吨燃料。
其低硫燃油和船用柴油的加油量337.3万份额占比75%；高硫油销量113万吨，份额占比25%。
高硫油需求达到一年以来最显示安装脱硫塔的船舶在新加坡港大量加注高硫油。
近期干散货市场运价中国保税船供油量162万吨，同比大幅增加35%。
未来走势预测随着新冠疫苗接种数量的不断增加，以及气温的逐步回升，预计全球经济复苏加快，拉动航运市场需求增长，进而促进船舶燃油需求保持稳定。
3月份亚洲地区炼厂进入集中检修期，预计燃油供应趋于紧张，亚洲船用燃油价格随国际油价波动，整体偏强。
图2 2020-2021年新加坡陆上渣油库存走势图(百万桶)预计燃油供应趋于紧张，亚洲船用燃油价格整体偏强。
：陶润元。
燃料油市场介绍与分析
石油价格评估体系的作用（2）
举例1：国内燃料油进口计价 举例2：大庆原油价格的结算 举例2：国内成品油价格
三、中国石油市场信息与价格评估体 建立的必要性与可行性
必要性 --现有的国际体系不能完全反映中国市场 --现有的国际体系不完全有利于中国利益 可行性 --中国市场日益增加的重要性 --国外成功的先例：石脑油市场 --国内的经验：黄埔燃料油估价
一般情况下交易商报来的交易价格很少，可能只有一笔交易，经常一 笔交易也没有，甚至买家都没有，只有一两个卖家，普氏编辑人员也 不是直接用上述价格计算出指数，因此不是由市场真实交易出来的， 而是由它的编辑人员估计出来的，因此存在很大的不确定性，因此主 观性很大，普氏不同的编辑人员很可能得出不同的数字。 ， 由于该指数价格有很大的主观性，因此普氏指数价格出来后，经常会引起那 几家国外公司与普氏的争吵，因为可能这个公布的价格，对某公司有
石油价格评估体系的作用（2）
举例1：国内燃料油进口计价
专业石油信息服务平台的作用
专业石油信息服务平台的功能 --报价、新闻、市场评述
信息对市场的巨大影响--举例之一
信息对WTI价格波动的影响
信息对市场的巨大影响--举例之二
国内信息对新加坡燃料油价格的影响： 2002年8月广州格力、华泰兴、中艺华海等7家主要燃料 油进口商，通过金凯讯信息渠道发布信息：减少新加坡 市场燃料油下月进口数量，造成当日新加坡市场燃料油 现货和纸货价格的大幅下跌，当日现货基准价下跌10美 元/吨，跌幅超过5% 事后媒体评论是国内企业通过有效的信息手段，首 次主动地大幅度地干预了国际燃料油市场价格
纸货交易有什么用
是石油市场一种非常重要的交易工具 可以实现固定计价与浮动计价转换 避险工具、保值锁价功能 计价期转换功能 投机功能等
bp-energy-outlook-2016 BP能源展望
71 74 78 82 86 90 92 94
Conclusions Annex
• Key figures and fast facts • Annual revisions in detail • Comparison with other energy outlooks
• Data sources
4
9 19 44 48 52 58
Main changes
63
ቤተ መጻሕፍቲ ባይዱ
2016 Energy Outlook
2
© BP p.l.c. 2016
Contents (continued)
Page
Key uncertainties
• Slower global GDP growth • Faster transition to a lower-carbon world • Shale oil and gas have even greater potential
BP Energy Outlook
2016 edition
Tgkuji全球石油五大现货市场与三大期货市场
生命是永恒不断的创造，因为在它内部蕴含着过剩的精力，它不断流溢，越出时间和空间的界限，它不停地追求，以形形色色的自我表现的形式表现出来。
－－泰戈尔目前全球范围主要的石油现货市场有西北欧市场、地中海市场、加勒比海市场、新加坡市场、美国市场5个。
如西北欧市场分布在(阿姆斯特丹—鹿特丹—安特卫普)地区，主要为德、法、英、荷等国服务，核心在鹿特丹。
新加坡市场的出现尽管只有10多年时间，但因地理位置优越，发展极为迅速，现已成为南亚和东南亚的石油交易中心。
美国年消费石油9亿吨左右，约占全球总量的1／4，其中6亿吨左右需要进口，于是在美国濒临墨西哥湾的休斯敦及大西洋的波特兰港和纽约港形成了一个庞大市场。
目前中国的成品油零售中准价就是参照国际市场鹿特丹、纽约、新加坡3地价格制订的。
全球范围主要的石油期货市场有纽约商品交易所、伦敦国际石油交易所以及最近两年兴起的东京工业品交易所。
2003年纽约商品交易所能源期货和期权交易量超过1亿手，占到三大能源交易所总量的60%，其上市交易的西得克萨斯中质原油(wti)是全球交易量最大的商品期货，也是全球石油市场最重要的定价基准之一。
伦敦国际石油交易所交易的北海布伦特原油也是全球最重要的定价基准之一，全球原油贸易的50%左右都参照布伦特原油定价。
日本的石油期货市场虽然历史很短，但交易量增长很快，在本地区的影响力也不断增强。
世界石油市场的格局决定了其定价机制，目前，国际市场原油贸易大多以各主要地区的基准油为定价参考，以基准油在交货或提单日前后某一段时间的现货交易或期货交易价格加上升贴水作为原油贸易的最终结算价格。
期货市场价格在国际石油定价中扮演了主要角色。
以地域划分，所有在北美生产或销往北美的原油都以wti原油作为基准来作价；从原苏联、非洲以及中东销往欧洲的原油则以布伦特原油作为基准来作价；中东产油国生产或从中东销往亚洲的原油以前多以阿联酋迪拜原油为基准油作价；远东市场参照的油品主要是马来西亚塔皮斯轻质原油(tapis)和印度尼西亚的米纳斯原油(minas)。
2016年11月EIA原油市场月度报告
November 2016Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO)Forecast highlightsGlobal liquid fuels•U.S. crude oil production averaged 9.4 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2015, and it is forecast to average 8.8 million b/d in 2016 and 8.7 million b/d in 2017. Forecastproduction in 2017 is more than 0.1 million b/d higher than in last month’s STEO.•EIA expects Brent crude oil prices will average close to $48/ barrel (b) in the fourth quarter of 2016 and in the first quarter of 2017. Forecast Brent prices average $43/b in2016 and $51/b in 2017. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices are forecast to average about $1/b less than Brent prices in 2017. The values of futures and optionscontracts indicate significant uncertainty in the price outlook, with NYMEX contractvalues for February 2017 delivery traded during the five-day period ending November 3 suggesting that a range from $35/b to $66/b encompasses the market expectation ofWTI prices in February 2017 at the 95% confidence level.•Higher crude oil prices contributed to U.S. average retail regular gasoline prices in October increasing by 3 cents/gallon (gal) from September to an average of $2.25/gal.With the switch to less-expensive winter gasoline blends and the typical seasonaldecline in gasoline consumption, EIA expects gasoline prices to fall to an average of$1.97/gal in January. Retail gasoline prices are forecast to average $2.13/gal in 2016 and $2.27/gal in 2017.•Global oil inventory builds are forecast to average 0.8 million b/d in 2016 and 0.5 million b/d in 2017.Natural gas•Natural gas marketed production is forecast to average 77.3 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2016, a 1.4 Bcf/d decline from the 2015 level, which would be the first annual decline since 2005. EIA expects production to start rising in November as a result ofincreases in drilling activity and infrastructure build-out that connects natural gasproduction to demand centers. In 2017, forecast natural gas production increases by an average of 2.9 Bcf/d from the 2016 level.•Growing domestic natural gas consumption, along with higher pipeline exports to Mexico and liquefied natural gas exports, contribute to the Henry Hub natural gas spotprice rising from an average of $2.50/million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2016 to$3.12/MMBtu in 2017. NYMEX contract values for February 2017 delivery traded during the five-day period ending November 3 suggest that a price range from $2.01/MMBtu to $4.84/MMBtu encompasses the market expectation of Henry Hub natural gas prices inFebruary 2017 at the 95% confidence level.Electricity, coal, renewables, and emissions•EIA forecasts total U.S. generation of electricity from utility-scale plants will be 11.2 terawatthours in 2016, up 0.2% from 2015. Total utility-scale generation grows by 0.5% in 2017.•EIA expects the share of U.S. total utility-scale electricity generation from natural gas will average 34% this year, and the share from coal will average 30%. Last year, bothfuels supplied about 33% of total U.S. electricity generation. In 2017, natural gas andcoal are forecast to generate about 33% and 31% of electricity, respectively, as naturalgas prices are forecast to increase. Nonhydropower renewables are forecast to generate 8% of electricity generation in 2016 and 9% in 2017. Generation shares of nuclear andhydropower are forecast to be relatively unchanged from 2016 to 2017.•Coal production in October 2016 was 73 million short tons (MMst), the highest monthly production level since October 2015, when it was 76 MMst. Forecast coal productiondeclines by 150 MMst (17%) in 2016 to 747 MMst, which would be the lowest level ofcoal production since 1978. Forecast coal production increases by 3% in 2017.•Electric power sector coal stockpiles decreased to 163 MMst in August 2016, down 5% from the previous month. Although coal stocks are at their lowest levels of the yearbecause of the typical seasonal decline that occurs each summer, they are still 4% above the August 2015 level, when coal stockpiles were 157 MMst.•Wind energy capacity at the end of 2015 was 72 gigawatts (GW). EIA expects that 8 GW of capacity will be added in 2016 and 9 GW in 2017. These additions would bring totalwind capacity to 89 GW by the end of 2017.•After declining by 2.7% in 2015, energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in the first six months of 2016 were the lowest for that period since 1991. For all of 2016,emissions are projected to decline by 1.5%, and then increase by 0.7% in 2017. Energy-related CO2 emissions are sensitive to changes in weather, economic growth, andenergy prices.Petroleum and natural gas markets reviewCrude oilPrices: Front-month futures prices for Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil in October reached the highest levels in more than a year before falling to $46.35 per barrel (b) and $44.66/b, respectively, on November 3 (Figure 1). Monthly average spot prices for Brent and WTI increased by $3/b and $5/b, respectively, from September to October.Although the outlook for global consumption of petroleum products remains relatively robust because of generally positive global economic data, the potential for additional crude oil supplies in the global market could push prices lower. Recent production gains from producers outside the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), including Russia, the United Kingdom, and Brazil, and the continued resiliency of onshore U.S. producers are applying downward pressure on crude oil prices. Increased volumes from Nigeria, Libya, Iran, and Iraq are set to enter the market and could complicate efforts of OPEC’s members to reach agreement on production quotas at their semi-annual meeting at the end of November.EIA’s November STEO Brent crude oil price forecast is largely unchanged from the October STEO, with prices forecast to average $51/b in 2017. Brent and WTI crude oil prices for the first and second quarters of 2017 are projected to remain near current levels, with prices gradually rising in the second half of 2017. However, if global oil supply levels in the coming months are higher than forecast, contributing to looser global oil balances, prices could be lower than forecast over the coming year.Crude oil supply and inventories: EIA revised the U.S. crude oil production forecast upward from the October STEO, based on slower declines in Lower 48 states production. U.S. crude oil production in 2017 is now expected to average 8.7 million b/d in 2017, more than 0.1 millionb/d higher than in last month’s forecast, and a decline of 0.1 million b/d from 2016 levels.Recent increases in drilling activity in the Permian region are expected to lead to an increase in production in that area in 2017, partially offsetting declines in other areas of the Lower 48 states. The Permian region is the only region in EIA’s Drilling Productivity Report expected to show increases in oil production in October and November (Figure 2). Companies added 81 active oil rigs to the Permian since the end of May, with the region now holding almost as many active rigs as the rest of the United States, onshore and offshore combined.Oil rigs in the Williston Basin (Bakken region) and Eagle Ford increased by only 15 rigs and 4 rigs, respectively, over the same period. One company, SM Energy, sold $785 million worth of Williston Basin assets to purchase $1.6 billion in assets in the Permian region, reflecting the recent increase in merger and acquisition spending in West Texas.Although U.S. crude oil production is forecast to decline in 2017, those declines are expected to be more than offset by increases in hydrocarbon gas liquids production. Overall U.S. liquid fuels production is forecast to increase by 0.2 million b/d next year.Non-OPEC liquid fuels production outside the United States is forecast to increase by 0.1 million b/d in 2017, following a decline of almost 0.3 million b/d in 2016. Non-OPEC production increases in 2017 are driven by increasing production in Canada, Russia, and Kazakhstan that is partially offset by declining production in the North Sea, China, and Mexico.Global petroleum inventories are expected to build through the second quarter of 2017, but there is significant regional variation in that forecast. In the United States, total oil inventories are expected to decline in the fourth quarter of 2016 and first quarter of 2017. However, these U.S. draws are more than offset by inventory builds in other countries in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and in the rest of the world, contributing to expected global inventory builds through the first half of 2017.Sustained opposite movements of domestic and international crude oil and petroleum product inventories are rare, but that divergence is currently supported by differences in the shapes of the Brent and WTI futures curves. The Brent 1st month-13th month futures prices spread, a measure of contango (when near-term futures prices are at a discount to longer-term futures prices), settled at -$5.25/b on November 3 (Figure 3),a $1.44/b increase in the contango since October 3. The return of Nigerian and Libyan barrels, particularly during refinery maintenance season, may have led to some difficulty placing some light crude oil barrels and put additional downward pressure on prompt Brent prices.The contango in the WTI 1st month-13th month futures price spread also increased in October, but contango in the WTI futures curve remains less than in the Brent futures curve. Higher near-term prices reflected a counter-seasonal decline in total U.S. commercial crude oil inventories and a decline in inventories at the WTI contract delivery point in Cushing, Oklahoma in September and October. October refinery runs were 265,000 b/d higher than the five-year average in the Midwest, contributing to comparatively large inventory draws in the region. In October, Midwest crude oil inventories outside Cushing, Oklahoma, dipped below year-ago levels for the first time since August 2014, likely providing support to near-term WTI prices. There was a large build in U.S. commercial crude oil inventories for the week ending October 28 and crude oil imports into the United States increased from the prior week. These movements could signal a rebalancing between domestic and international markets in the near future.Developments in several OPEC member countries are also contributing to the global oil inventory build outside the United States. Overall OPEC crude oil supply is expected to average 32.5 million b/d in 2016 and to increase to 33.3 million b/d in 2017. Libya’s crude oil production rose to almost 0.6 million b/d at the end of October in response to the reopening of the Ras Lanuf and Zueitina ports. In Nigeria, additional cargoes of Forcados and Qua Iboe crude oil were lifted in October following the suspension of force majeures. Iraq and Iran also posted production gains in October, with both countries increasing crude oil exports during the month.Saudi Arabia’s crude oil output is estimated to have decreased in October, likely in response to lower direct crude oil burn for electricity generation. Saudi Arabia’s October production was 10.5 million b/d, roughly 0.4 mllion b/d higher than year-ago levels.Crude oil demand and exchange rates: Global crude oil demand growth in the November STEO was revised upward from the October STEO, with global oil demand expected to grow by 1.3 million b/d in 2016 and by 1.5 million b/d in 2017. China is expected to contribute the most to that growth, with its liquid fuels consumption forecast to grow by almost 0.4 million b/d in 2016 and by 0.3 million b/d in 2017. Growth in China’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth was 6.7% in the third quarter of 2016, and recent indicators for the manufacturing and services sectors suggest the country will achieve its target of between 6.5%-7.0% GDP growth for the full year.Recent movements in exchange rates seem to confirm the overall strong economic data in emerging market economies and imply robust oil demand growth. The value of the U.S. dollar (USD), as measured by the spot U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), has appreciated in recent months. Typically, a strengthening USD signifies weaker expectations for the oil demand outlook, as occurred in 2014-15. The DXY, however, is heavily weighted toward developed economy currencies, and the recent USD appreciation is not occurring against emerging market currencies. The DXY has appreciated 1.6% against developed market currencies since July 1, whereas it has depreciated 0.4% against emerging market currencies, as measured by the JP Morgan Emerging Market Currency index. Brent crude oil prices fell 7.9% over this period, but adjusting for different currencies, they are down only 6.5% in developed market currencies compared with a decline of 7.6% in emerging market currencies (Figure 4).The USD appreciation against developed market currencies mainly reflects a significant decline in the value of the British pound since the United Kingdom voted in June to leave the European Union. The central banks of other developed economies in Europe also announced expansions to monetary easing programs, likely providing downward pressure on the euro. Stronger economic data in emerging markets such as India and Brazil are likely contributing to some appreciation of these currencies against the USD. Because oil demand tends to be more price sensitive in emerging markets than in developed economies, the appreciation of the USD against the pound and the euro is unlikely to strongly affect global oil demand, absent other economic developments.Petroleum productsGasoline Prices: The front-month futures price of reformulated blendstock for oxygenate blending (RBOB, the petroleum component of gasoline used in many parts of the country) rose through October and settled at $1.42 per gallon (gal) on November 3 (Figure 5). Gasoline prices rose on November 1 in response to the shutdown of Colonial Pipeline’s Line 1, which carries gasoline, following damage to a section of the pipeline in Alabama on October 31. However, they declined in the following days, as more information on the planned restart schedule became available. The Line 1 gasoline pipeline previously shut down for 12 days in September because of a leak near the same area that was recently damaged. The impact of such product pipeline outages on gasoline spot and retail prices in the U.S. East Coast and Gulf Coast varies by region and depends upon the length of the disruption, the level of existing gasoline stocks, and the ability to bring in additional gasoline supplies using other transport modes. Service on Line 1 was restarted on November 6, following the completion of the process of repair, testing, and government approval.The RBOB-Brent crack spread increased from mid-October into early November, a time when that crack spread typically decreases. The average RBOB-Brent crack spread in October was the highest on record for that month. Prior to the pipeline outage, strong demand for gasoline globally contributed to high levels of gasoline exports, which likely supported gasoline prices. EIA estimates that U.S. gasoline exports in October set a record high, and news reports indicate that Mexico likely increased their gasoline imports from the United States. In addition to sending gasoline to Mexico, U.S. exporters may be transporting gasoline much greater distances, as the cost of shipping petroleum products declined to several-year lows in October.Ultra-low Sulfur Diesel Prices: The front-month futures price for the New York Harbor Ultra-low Sulfur Diesel (ULSD) contract fell in October and settled at $1.46/gal on November 3. However, the ULSD-Brent crack spread was almost unchanged over the same period (Figure 6). Weekly EIA estimates show U.S. distillate consumption in October grew year-over-year for the first time since September 2015, helping to support the ULSD crack spread. Increased activity in the U.S. manufacturing sector and higher rail traffic may have contributed to growth in U.S. distillate consumption. According to the Institute for Supply Management’s U.S. Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index, the U.S. manufacturing sector expanded in September and October after contracting in August. In addition, total U.S. rail traffic increased significantly in the past few months from the lows in early 2016. In the coming months, EIA expects U.S. distillate consumption to be higher during this winter heating season compared with last year’s because of colder expected temperatures this winter.Petroleum Product Production: The U.S. gasoline-to-distillate production ratio remains close to the five-year high level reached in in May. As of August, the gasoline-to-distillate production ratio was 2.08 (Figure 7) and, according to preliminary weekly estimates, the ratio increased in September and October. High gasoline crack spreads for this time of year, along with a high gasoline-to-distillate production ratio, have likely pushed overall refinery margins higher compared with previous years.However, futures price spreads for petroleum products indicate that, going forward, a high gasoline-to-distillate production ratio will not be as profitable as it was in 2016. The average front-month and sixth-month RBOB-ULSD futures price spread1 has declined from the highs of early 2016. Refineries can adjust petroleum product yields over time to respond to price signals from the market by modifying processes and feedstocks or by adding equipment. EIA projects that the gasoline-to-distillate production ratio will decline in 2017, but will remain above the ratios from 2011 through 2015.Natural gasPrices and temperatures: The front-month natural gas contract for delivery at Henry Hub moved lower in the second half of October and settled at $2.77 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) on November 3 (Figure 8). The price volatility toward the end of October was mostly the result of warmer-than-normal weather and a change in the delivery month from November to December, reflecting seasonality in natural gas prices. The average Henry Hub natural gas spot price in October decreased by 2 cents/MMBtu from the September average.Warmer-than-normal temperatures in the United States during October led to lower-than- expected heating degree days (HDD), putting downward pressure on natural gas demand and1 The RBOB-ULSD price spread in Figure 7 was calculated by first taking the monthly averages of the front-month and sixth-month futures contracts for RBOB and ULSD. The difference between the average RBOB and the ULSD front-month and sixth-month prices is shown in the chart.prices. HDD were 38% below the previous 10-year average in October. With total U.S. working natural gas inventories already at elevated levels, the reduced demand did not translate into additional storage builds. The pace of storage injections in October was slower compared with previous years, which could reflect a decline in natural gas production during October. Working natural gas storage increased by 71 billion cubic feet (Bcf) per week in October compared with the five-year average of 79 Bcf/week at this time of year in 2011 through 2015.The price difference between November and January natural gas futures contracts reached the highest level in October since 2012, with the difference in prices for the two contracts averaging 40 cents/MMBtu (Figure 9). EIA is currently forecasting about 21% of U.S. natural gas consumption in December, January, and February to be drawn from inventories, slightly higher than the five-year average. Rather than signaling the need for inventory builds to meet winter heating needs, the higher November-to-January futures price spread this year likely reflects the difference between current warmer-than-normal temperatures and the expectation for colder temperatures this winter compared with last winter.Contact: James Preciado (james.preciado@)Notable forecast changes•U.S. crude oil production is forecast to average 8.8 million b/d in 2016 and 8.7 million b/d in 2017. Forecast production in both 2016 and 2017 is 0.1 million b/d higher than in the previous forecast. The higher production forecast is mostly the result ofbenchmarking to August 2016 data from the EIA-914 survey. The October STEOestimated production would fall during August 2016; however, the EIA-914 data showed an increase in production of more than 50,000 b/d from July levels.•Hydrocarbon gas liquids (HGL) consumption is forecast to average 2.5 million b/d in 2016 and 2.7 million b/d in 2017. The 2017 forecast is almost 0.1 million b/d higher than the previous forecast. The higher 2017 forecast mainly reflects an updated timeline for the startup of three new ethane-fed petrochemical plants expected to begin operatingin 2017. Higher ethane consumption is expected to be supplied with a combination ofincreased production (partly from reduced ethane rejection into pipeline natural gas)and from draws on inventories.•Natural gas marketed production is forecast to average 77.3 Bcf/d in 2016 and 80.3 Bcf/d in 2017, which are 0.2 Bcf/d and 0.9 Bcf/d lower than the previous forecast,respectively. These changes reflect model adjustments to include greater sensitivity ofdrilling activity to Henry Hub natural gas prices.•For more information, please see a detailed table of forecast changes.MMb/d(MMb/d)dollars per barrel2005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017 Note: Shaded area represents 2005-2015 average (2.3 million barrels per day).annual change (MMb/d)annual change (MMb/d)annual change (Bcf/d)annual change (Bcf/d) deviation from average annual change (MMst)annual change (MMst)annual change (million kWh/d)Forecast changeannual changeU.S. census regions and divisions Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, November 2016.Natural GasNortheastConsumption (Mcf**)75.780.766.476.184.084.767.875.711.7 Price ($/mcf)13.3112.6612.2111.7111.5310.8210.2011.119.0 Expenditures ($)1,0071,02281289196991669184121.7 MidwestConsumption (Mcf)78.680.265.477.688.183.167.775.211.1 Price ($/mcf)9.449.238.998.368.698.567.588.5813.3 Expenditures ($)74274058764876671151364525.8 SouthConsumption (Mcf)53.249.340.846.552.150.540.744.49.2 Price ($/mcf)11.5211.0211.4510.7110.7710.8210.8511.58 6.8 Expenditures ($)61354346849756154644151516.6 WestConsumption (Mcf)49.949.449.148.646.441.445.844.6-2.5 Price ($/mcf)9.919.679.359.139.9610.729.9310.24 3.0 Expenditures ($)4944784594444624444554570.4 U.S. AverageConsumption (Mcf)64.465.055.762.568.064.855.760.17.8 Price ($/mcf)10.8310.4610.259.729.979.919.3110.118.6 Expenditures ($)69867957060767764251960817.1 Heating OilU.S. AverageConsumption (gallons)544.7580.7471.1545.4607.1608.0481.5542.112.6 Price ($/gallon) 2.85 3.38 3.73 3.87 3.88 3.04 2.06 2.4820.5 Expenditures ($)1,5521,9651,7572,1132,3531,8489921,34635.6 ElectricityNortheastConsumption (kWh***)6,8477,0766,4366,8627,2217,2516,4966,849 5.4 Price ($/kwh)0.1520.1540.1540.1520.1630.1680.1650.165-0.2 Expenditures ($)1,0391,0919931,0461,1771,2221,0711,127 5.2 MidwestConsumption (kWh)8,6608,7337,8978,5889,1688,8588,0318,452 5.2 Price ($/kwh)0.0990.1050.1110.1120.1120.1180.1210.123 1.5 Expenditures ($)8569148759581,0311,0439721,038 6.8 SouthConsumption (kWh)8,4828,2207,4667,9728,3818,2817,4587,784 4.4 Price ($/kwh)0.1030.1040.1070.1070.1090.1110.1110.110-0.8 Expenditures ($)873855797851913919827855 3.5 WestConsumption (kWh)7,2397,2167,1907,1506,9816,6006,9486,860-1.3 Price ($/kwh)0.1100.1120.1150.1190.1230.1260.1300.133 2.4 Expenditures ($)799809825848860835901911 1.1 U.S. AverageConsumption (kWh)7,9357,8427,2517,6707,9807,8017,2397,501 3.6 Price ($/kwh)0.1100.1130.1160.1170.1200.1230.1240.1240.2 Expenditures ($)873884842895955960896931 3.9PropaneNortheastConsumption (gallons)672.0717.5595.6675.8745.1751.2607.4675.211.2Price* ($/gallon) 2.98 3.24 3.34 3.00 3.56 3.00 2.71 2.958.9Expenditures ($)2,0042,3211,9902,0312,6532,2531,6461,99221.0MidwestConsumption (gallons)779.6791.9644.3766.4868.6813.3667.7742.011.1Price* ($/gallon) 1.99 2.11 2.23 1.74 2.61 1.91 1.47 1.7317.7Expenditures ($)1,5481,6741,4371,3332,2671,5539821,28430.8 Number of households by primary space heating fuel (thousands)NortheastNatural gas10,99211,11811,23611,34511,52211,72411,84211,959 1.0Heating oil6,0165,8585,7015,4585,2415,1014,9714,827-2.9Propane7337447618138458608738780.6Electricity2,6452,7762,8943,0113,0363,1043,2223,307 2.6Wood501512548582585566541536-0.9Other/None311315324377436438434452 4.2MidwestNatural gas18,05017,97718,01918,05418,07218,16718,09218,046-0.3Heating oil451419393360336318299280-6.5Propane2,0982,0732,0372,0632,0882,0792,0762,061-0.7Electricity4,7154,9225,1195,3335,4225,5005,7225,924 3.5Wood616618631640632612602612 1.7Other/None283289282319353350350362 3.3SouthNatural gas13,73113,65713,63613,68113,79313,90613,91413,9620.3Heating oil906853790738698680656623-5.1Propane2,1652,0982,0241,9821,9431,9241,8881,828-3.2Electricity25,79126,55527,28327,85728,23028,80229,48330,158 2.3Wood586599609612616587581601 3.4Other/None314309304367419408405410 1.3WestNatural gas14,93915,02015,02115,00915,05915,21615,31815,4340.8Heating oil289279261247234225218209-4.0Propane940914885909930917910899-1.2Electricity7,8778,1268,4398,6718,7548,9199,2219,489 2.9Wood721725736728744747724731 1.0Other/None8508508299031,0151,0761,0741,0760.2U.S. TotalsNatural gas57,71357,77157,91258,08858,44659,01459,16659,4010.4Heating oil7,6627,4087,1456,8036,5096,3246,1445,938-3.3Propane5,9365,8295,7075,7665,8065,7805,7465,667-1.4Electricity41,02942,38043,73444,87345,44246,32547,64948,878 2.6Wood2,4242,4542,5242,5632,5762,5122,4482,480 1.3Other/None1,7581,7631,7391,9652,2222,2722,2632,300 1.7 Heating degree daysNortheast4,9335,3374,2174,9645,5945,6444,3204,94014.3Midwest5,6395,7734,4845,5446,4516,0034,6875,33613.8South2,8672,6292,0192,4262,7832,6902,0112,27613.2West3,2853,2583,2293,1812,9892,5652,9482,850-3.3U.S. Average 3,9363,9383,2233,7204,1083,8803,1993,5169.9 Note: Winter covers the period October 1 through March 31. Fuel prices are nominal prices. Fuel consumption per household is based only on households that use that fuel as the primary space-heating fuel. Included in fuel consumption is consumption for water heating, appliances, and lighting (electricity). Per-household consumption based on an average of EIA 2005 and 2009 Residential Energy Consumption Surveys corrected for actual and projected heating degree days. Number of households using heating oil includes kerosene.Table 1. U.S. Energy Markets SummaryU.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - November 2016201520162017Year1st2nd3rd4th1st2nd3rd4th1st2nd3rd4th201520162017 Energy SupplyCrude Oil Production (a)(million barrels per day) .........................9.499.479.419.309.178.858.688.688.688.718.678.879.428.848.73Dry Natural Gas Production(billion cubic feet per day) .....................73.4474.5074.5174.0873.7772.3871.7371.5173.0674.4175.8176.9374.1472.3475.06Coal Production(million short tons) (240212237207173161205208198175200195897747768)Energy ConsumptionLiquid Fuels(million barrels per day) .........................19.4119.4719.8319.4219.4519.4219.7919.9019.5519.7320.1220.2119.5319.6419.90Natural Gas(billion cubic feet per day) .....................95.9463.5765.7374.3489.3866.8969.5476.9092.2665.9767.8578.0674.8175.6675.97Coal (b)(million short tons) (212189230168168161226183189170211181799737751)Electricity(billion kilowatt hours per day) ...............10.7510.0511.809.7310.219.9712.1710.0710.6110.1411.9010.0110.5810.6110.67Renewables (c)(quadrillion Btu) ..................................... 2.39 2.41 2.32 2.43 2.62 2.61 2.45 2.56 2.54 2.77 2.60 2.599.5510.2410.50Total Energy Consumption (d)(quadrillion Btu) .....................................26.3023.0124.4423.6725.2822.9924.5624.1825.3322.9124.2724.4797.4297.0196.97 Energy PricesCrude Oil West Texas Intermediate Spot(dollars per barrel) .................................48.4857.8546.5541.9433.3545.4644.8547.2447.0048.0351.0053.6548.6742.8449.91Natural Gas Henry Hub Spot(dollars per million Btu) .......................... 2.90 2.75 2.76 2.12 2.00 2.14 2.88 2.99 3.25 3.00 3.02 3.20 2.63 2.50 3.12Coal(dollars per million Btu) .......................... 2.27 2.25 2.22 2.15 2.13 2.13 2.14 2.20 2.19 2.22 2.25 2.22 2.23 2.15 2.22 MacroeconomicReal Gross Domestic Product(billion chained 2009 dollars - SAAR) .....16,26916,37416,45516,49116,52516,58316,65716,73816,83416,93117,03117,11616,39716,62616,978 Percent change from prior year .............. 3.3 3.0 2.2 1.9 1.6 1.3 1.2 1.5 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.6 1.4 2.1GDP Implicit Price Deflator(Index, 2009=100) .................................109.3109.9110.3110.5110.6111.3111.8112.4113.1113.7114.4115.0110.0111.5114.1 Percent change from prior year .............. 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.8 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.3 1.1 1.4 2.3Real Disposable Personal Income(billion chained 2009 dollars - SAAR) .....12,18312,30012,39912,49112,55612,62112,70412,77112,84412,91812,98813,06412,34312,66312,953 Percent change from prior year .............. 3.9 3.6 3.3 3.0 3.1 2.6 2.5 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.2 2.3 3.5 2.6 2.3Manufacturing Production Index(Index, 2012=100) .................................103.2103.4103.9103.7103.9103.6103.9104.2104.6105.0106.0106.9103.6103.9105.6 Percent change from prior year .............. 2.1 1.10.90.10.60.20.00.40.7 1.4 2.0 2.6 1.10.3 1.7WeatherU.S. Heating Degree-Days ....................2,340443491,2531,947481501,4262,090462701,4954,0853,9034,117 U.S. Cooling Degree-Days ....................464348751335441096912845413863971,4891,5621,417- = no data availablePrices are not adjusted for inflation.(a) Includes lease condensate.(b) Total consumption includes Independent Power Producer (IPP) consumption.(c) Renewable energy includes minor components of non-marketed renewable energy that is neither bought nor sold, either directly or indirectly, as inputs to marketed energy.EIA does not estimate or project end-use consumption of non-marketed renewable energy.(d) The conversion from physical units to Btu is calculated using a subset of conversion factors used in the calculations of gross energy consumption in EIA’s Monthly Energy Review Consequently, the historical data may not precisely match those published in the MER or the Annual Energy Review (AER).Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Petroleum Supply Monthly, DOE/EIA-0109;。
2016年上半年国际主要能源大宗商品价格分析
2016年上半年国际主要能源大宗商品价格分析2016年上半年全球经济增长持续疲软,发达经济体总需求不足和长期增长率不高现象并存，新兴经济体总体增长率下滑趋势难以得到有效遏制。
同时，美联储加息预期扰动市场情绪，而加息路径牵动各方市场神经；英国退欧对欧盟乃至世界经济造成重创。
在此背景下，2016年上半年国际大宗商品以及能源大宗商品价格均摆脱了2015年低位震荡的局面，主要商品价格呈现震荡上行的走势。
下半年，全球能源需求将继续增加，能源大宗商品价格存在上升空间，预计总体上仍将处于震荡上行的态势。
一、国际大宗商品市场形势2016年上半年全球大宗商品价格止跌企稳，市场振荡缓升，主要商品价格均呈现震荡上升局面。
反映出市场对世界经济复苏，世界能源需求逐步恢复的信心。
同时，过去一年来油价低迷，不少油田已经停产，投资也在下降，供给面因素开始支持油价复苏，市场对大宗商品价格未来走势的预期已经趋于稳定。
从国际货币基金组织（IMF）的初级产品价格统计来看，2016年大宗商品价格综合指数大幅上升，1-7月，累计上升23.7%。
按商品类别来看，能源大宗商品价格上升幅度最大，累计上升38.1%，食品和工业投入品价格累计上升幅度分别为12.1%和10.7%。
二、能源大宗商品价格走势及原因分析1、国际石油价格走势及原因分析2016年上半年，国际石油价格与能源大宗商品价格走势保持一致，呈现震荡上升的态势。
1-6月，三地原油平均价格指数累计上升59.7%，7月呈现小幅下降。
Brent原油和WTI原油的结算价在2016年1月下旬触底，达到十多年来的低点，之后震荡上行，并于6月上旬达到上半年高点53.51美元/桶和52.67美元/桶，然而回升之势有限，6月中旬油价步入下跌通道，7月中旬虽有反弹，但下旬再次下跌。
油价最终没能回升至较高的点位，主要是受真实供应依旧过剩、原油库存高企和全球经济复苏缓慢这三大利空的抑制。
一方面，联合国5月发布的《2016年世界经济形势与展望》报告指出，全球经济生产总值在2016年将增长仅2.4%，与2015年相同；相对于2015年12月发布的预测下调0.5个百分点。
2012-2016年中国燃料油市场监测研究报告
2012-2016年中国燃料油市场监测及发展趋势研究报告本报告由中国产业信息网（）提供燃料油是中国目前石油产品中市场化程度较高的一个品种。
从2004年1月1日国家取消燃料油进出口配额，实行进口自动许可管理至今，中国已有超过100家公司拥有燃料油进口资质。
中国是亚洲最大的燃料油消费市场，消费主要集中在电力、交通运输、石油石化、冶金和建筑材料等方面，此外还有一部分燃料油通过地方小炼厂加工转化进入成品油市场。
2009年受消费税征收影响，国内燃料油市场消费结构发生大幅改变，船用油市场份额快速增长，电厂用油市场下降，工业用油急速萎缩。
在国内燃料油需求稳定的情况下，燃料油进口量和国内燃料油产量存在此消彼长的关系。
国内新增产能投产导致2010年我国燃料油产量上涨，一定程度上削弱了对燃料油进口的需求，导致国内燃料油的对外依存度同比下降3.6个百分点。
国内燃料油消费状况也是主导燃料油进口消长的主要原因，国内燃料油消费区域主要集中在山东、华东、华南。
2010年，山东与华东地区燃料油消费占到全国消费总量的70-80%，华南地区消费量占15%-18%，其余地区占10%左右。
2010年8月30日，国家财政部、税务总局发布了关于调整部分燃油消费税政策通知。
自2010年1月1日起到2010年12月31日止，对用作生产乙烯、芳烃等化工产品原料的国产燃料油免征消费税，对用作生产乙烯、芳烃等化工产品原料的进口燃料油返还消费税。
此次取消燃料油消费税在一定程度上减轻了企业的成本，对行业发展构成利好。
未来几年国内燃料油消费将主要集中在船用油与炼化板块。
我国地方炼厂普遍存在原料油不足的问题，因此燃料油也成为地方炼厂生产成品油的重要原料。
国内燃料油企业必须把握市场形势，生产适应市场需要的品种，推广环保新技术，逐步发展壮大。
中国产业信息网发布的《2012-2016年中国燃料油市场监测及发展趋势研究报告》共十七章。
主要依据国家统计局、国家海关总署、国家商务部、国家发改委、中国石油和化学工业协会、中国产业信息网、中华全国商业信息中心、国内外相关刊物的基础信息以及燃料油行业研究单位等公布和提供的大量资料，结合深入的市场调查资料，立足于世界燃料油行业整体发展大势，对中国燃料油行业的发展情况、经济运行数据、主要细分市场、进出口、市场营销、竞争格局等进行了分析及预测，并对未来燃料油行业发展的整体环境及发展趋势进行探讨和研判，最后在前面大量分析、预测的基础上，研究了燃料油行业今后的发展与投资策略。
燃料油基本知识
燃料油基本知识国际燃料油市场基本情况作为石油加工过程中的最后一道产品，燃料油的价值量一般较低。
当石油价格低廉时，燃料油一度是发达国家消费量最大的油品。
例如英国1973年的燃料油消费量占石油消费量的36.6％，比当年消费的汽柴油总量还多，日本1970年燃料油消费所占的比例更是高达56.5％。
在两次石油危机（1973-1974年、1979-1980年）之后，西方发达国家蒙受了巨大的损失，促使其进行能源结构的调整。
由于燃料油的可替代性，成为能源结构调整的主要目标。
发达国家的燃料油消费量自1973年以后都有显著下降，例如，美国1998年燃料油的消费量为4480万吨，占石油消费总量的5.3％，比1973年下降了11000万吨，降低了14个百分点；日本1998年的燃料油消费量为5125万吨，占石油消费总量的20.7％，比1973年下降了8990万吨，降低了28个百分点。
1986年油价暴跌后，世界石油市场进入一个相对稳定的时期，油价的变化较为平缓，北美、欧洲等经济较为发达的地区燃料油消费量仍在逐年下降。
但是，亚太地区很多国家处于经济起飞阶段，燃料油消费量有缓慢增加。
2002年世界燃料油需求5.48亿吨，供应6.01亿吨，过剩5346万吨。
供应方面来看，近三年全球各地除前苏联地区以外，燃料油供应都呈下降趋势，其中以北美下降的速度最快。
2002年世界燃料油供应量为6.01亿吨，较上年减少1205万吨，同比减少1.96％。
北美燃料油供应较上年下降了736万吨。
由于前苏联地区已经连续数年实现经济增长，并且主要依靠能源工业拉动，因此前苏联地区燃料油供应近年来大幅上升，2002年前苏联地区燃料油供应较上年增长了618万吨。
2000年以来，世界燃料油需求逐年下降，平均每年下降约1400万吨。
美洲大陆需求下降最为明显。
2002年世界燃料油消费量约5.48亿吨，比上年减少1420万吨，同比下降2.5％。
其中北美需求下降了983万吨，南美需求下降了609万吨；而西欧需求增长409万吨；其他地区需求都呈下降趋势，但下降速度都有所减缓。
国际燃料油市场
当月市场供需情况
供应方面。
根据PLATTS统计，7月份抵达亚洲的燃料油套利船货数量约490-500万吨，环比上个月下降了约70万吨，同比去年减少了55万吨。
根据目前统计的数据，预计8月份来自西方的套利船货量仅有350万吨，同比减少近50%左右，显示燃料油供应异常紧张。
本月的新加坡库存数据也反映出当前市场的供应紧张局面，根据新加坡国际企业发展局（IE）的数据，截至7月25日，新加坡陆上燃料油库存环比减少342.8万桶，为1619.6万桶，这是6年来的最低水平。
2018年初以来新加坡燃料油周平均库存为2024.1万桶从贴水变化上来看，新加坡市场380CST燃料油7月贴水持续走高，从月初的4.9美元/吨涨至月末的6.8美元/吨，显示燃料油价格相当坚挺。
未来走势预测
由于8月份来自西方的套利货资源依然紧张，预计将支撑新加坡市场燃料油价格继续保持强势。
同时，高涨的油价已经在一定程度上抑制船东的加油需求，因此市场交易情绪预计将会延续7月份的平淡局面，市场行情整体保持平稳。
资料来源：PLATTS
图3：2018年7月新加坡380CST燃料油贴水情况（美元/吨）
资料来源：PLATTS
资料来源：PLATTS。
新加坡燃料油市场
新加坡燃料油市场主要由三个部分组成：一是传统的现货市场，二是普氏(PLATTS)公开市场，三是纸货市场。
1．传统的现货市场传统的现货市场是指一般意义上的进行燃料油现货买卖的市场，市场规模大约在每年3000～4000万吨左右。
2．普氏（PLATTS）公开市场普氏（PLATTS）公开市场是指每天下午5：00～5：30在普氏公开报价系统（PAGE 190）上进行公开现货交易的市场。
该市场的主要目的不是为了进行燃料油实货的交割，而主要是为了形成当天的市场价格，起到发现价格的作用。
该市场的运作是由各油公司的交易员于每天下午5：00～5：30通过公开电子交易平台向普氏的编辑报出该公司的报价，再由该编辑将信息手工输入电脑，显示在所有油公司的电脑显示屏上。
当日5：30以后，普氏的编辑根据当日该系统上成交的燃料油的数量和价格，根据一定的方法估算处理后公布出一个当日的燃料油价格。
如果当天在该系统上没有成交，那么普氏的编辑会根据买卖双方的报价估算并公布一个价格作为当日的结算价格。
目前普氏（PLATTS）公开市场每年的交易量大约在600～1000万吨左右。
值得注意的是，普氏每天公布的价格并不是当天装船的燃料油的现货价格，而是15天后交货的价格。
因为根据亚洲地区的贸易习惯，大多数公司都倾向于提前买货，而卖方也倾向于提前卖货，结果大多数的实货交割都集中在15～30天这个时间段上。
新加坡燃料油市场的年现货交易额为3000万～4000万吨，其交易价格则主要由普氏公开市场决定。
该市场的燃料油交易额每天不足10万吨，在新加坡燃料油市场整体现货交易量中仅占一成多，其主要目的并非为现货交易，而是为了形成当天的市场价格。
该市场对交易的资格有严格限制，只有在新加坡设有燃料油仓库的企业才有资格在该市场进行报价。
目前，仅新加坡兴隆、BP、摩根士丹利等极少数油商可参与普氏公开市场交易，中国因尚无一家企业在新加坡设有燃料油仓库，因此无一能够进入该市场。
燃料油信息周刊(2016年第12期)
燃料油信息周刊（2016年第12期）一、燃料油产业链行情 (1)二、燃料油商品情报 (2)1、燃料油价格走势 (2)2、燃料油月涨跌图 (2)3、燃料油情报 (3)三、上游商品情报 (5)1、原油商品情报 (5)四、下游商品情报 (8)1、汽油商品情报 (8)2、柴油商品情报 (9)3、炭黑商品情报 (11)一、燃料油产业链行情商品初价格末价格涨跌原油40.39 41.54 2.85%燃料油2370.00 2370.00 0.00%汽油5920.21 5920.21 0.00%柴油4812.35 4768.82 -0.90%炭黑4616.67 4550.00 -1.44%二、燃料油商品情报1、燃料油价格走势2、燃料油月涨跌图3、燃料油情报●伊朗油长：伊朗原油产量达到每日400万桶后才会考虑冻产据伊朗通讯社ISNA上周日(3月13日)报导，伊朗石油部长尚甘尼(Bijan Zanganeh)表示，伊朗的原油日产量达到400万桶之后，将参与关于冻结产量的谈判。
●原油进口量上涨国内油田减产油价的长期低位导致国内油田生产大面积亏损，进而选择关停低效、高成本的油田，以降本增效。
除非国内有大型油田勘探发现，或者国际油价迅速反弹并维持高位，国内的原油产量恐怕将长期下滑。
●加快推进我国原油期货市场建设从110美元/桶到35美元/桶，国际油价“断崖式”的下跌，让整个石油行业全面进入“寒冬期”。
全国人大代表、中国石化集团胜利石油管理局局长、胜利油田分公司总经理孙焕泉建议，应利用当前油价低迷的时机，加快推进我国原油期货市场建设，增强我国对国际原油市场的影响力，降低油价波动带来的风险，保障国家能源安全。
●亚洲燃料油现货价差强劲上扬市场买兴旺盛亚洲燃料油现货价差周五（3月11日）强劲上扬，本周也收高，市场上买兴仍然强劲。
●俄罗斯原油储量正走向枯竭能源部发警告俄罗斯原油产量将在2035年前不可避免地下滑，来自俄能源部的警告振聋发聩。
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Jan 2016 – Fuel Oil Market Outlook
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China Refining Capacity - Annual
(Source: BP ; in million bpd) 16 14
12
million bpd
10 8 6 4 2 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Jan 2016 – Fuel Oil Market Outlook
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Saudi Arabia Fuel Oil Consumption - Annual
(Source: JODI ; in million bpd) 0.5
0.4
million bpd
0.3
0.2
0.1
Japan is the third largest consumer of fuel oil, however consumption has been decreasing in the last decade. There was a temporary increase in fuel oil consumption in the aftermath of the Fukushima nuclear disaster and the subsequent shut down of all nuclear plants, which required the use of alternative sources for power generation such as fuel oil. Despite this fuel oil consumption is expected to continue to decrease, as nuclear power plants are gradually restarting production and other power sources, like gas are used. Consumption of fuel oil in Saudi Arabia has increased by 35 percent in the last decade as a result of increased power generation needs, especially during the hot summer months.
Jan 2016 – Fuel Oil Market Outlook
; research@
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Index
1. 2. 3. 4.
Consumption Production Trade Final Words
page 3 page 12 page 22 page 32
Global fuel oil consumption has steadily decreased over the past decade as high sulphur fuels have become increasingly unpopular as a result of environmental regulations.
Jan 2016 – Fuel Oil Market Outlook
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Largest Fuel Oil Consumers - 2014
(Source: JODI ; in percentage of total volume)
Others 40%
China Russia 10%
Jan 2016 – Fuel Oil Market Outlook
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Japan Fuel Oil Consumption - Annual
(Source: JODI ; in million bpd) 0.7 0.6 0.5
million bpd
0.4 0.3
0.2
0.1 0.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 (1-10)
Jan 2016 – Fuel Oil Market Outlook
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Global Fuel Oil Consumption - Annual
(Source: JODI ; in million bpd) 9.0 8.0 7.0
million bpd
6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 (1-10)
0.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 (1-10)
Saudi Arabian fuel oil consumption has been increased by 35 percent between 2005 and 2014, reaching just shy of 0.4 million bpd in 2014.
Jan 2016 – Fuel Oil Market Outlook
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China Fuel Oil Consumption - Annual
(Source: JODI ; in million bpd) 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7
million bpd
0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3
Teapots were only allowed to purchase crude oil from state-owned oil companies and trading houses. In early-2015 the Chinese government lifted the ban on teapots importing crude; as a result fuel oil consumption is expected to decrease, as teapots increase the use of crude oil for feedstock.
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Fuel Oil Market Outlook
(Covering Consumption, Production & Trade)
January 2016
bancosta blue studies – volume WET 2016/#1
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Japan’s fuel oil consumption temporarily increased in the aftermath of the Fukushima accident, as alternative energy sources were utilized. However consumption has since continued decreasing.
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China Refining Capacity - 2015
(Source: JYD ; in percentage of total capacity)
Teapot Refineries, 32%
Major Refineries, 68%
Teapot refineries account for 32 percent of total capacity. Teapot refineries traditionally accounted for a significant part of fuel oil imports which they had used as feedstock until the recent reform that allowed them to import crude .
Jan 2016 – Fuel Oil Market Outlook
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Consumption
(Demand Drivers & Consumption)
Jan 2016 – Fuel Oil Market Outlook
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In this report we look at residual fuel oil, which is what remains after the distillate fuel and lighter hydrocarbons are distilled away during the refining process. Fuel oil is mostly used for power generation, as a bunker fuel or as an industrial fuel. Global fuel oil consumption decreased approximately 29 percent between 2005 and 2014 to 5.6 million barrels per day (bpd). The decrease in consumption has been driven in part by increased regulation on high sulphur fuels in an effort to curb pollution. China is the biggest consumer of fuel oil, accounting for 11 percent of global consumption in 2014. Russia and Japan accounted for an additional 10 percent and 7 percent respectively. China imports a significant part of the fuel oil it consumes. Traditionally teapot refineries had to complement crude oil with fuel oil for feedstock as a result of legislation banning them from importing crude oil.