经济学原理 (12.4)--通货膨胀与失业之间的短期权衡取舍、宏观经济政策的六个争论问题
宏观经济学 第十三章 通货膨胀与失业之间的短期权衡取舍
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菲利普斯曲线的移动：供给冲击的作用
• 历史事件表明，预期的变动可以使短期菲 利普斯曲线移动。 • 因为总供给的冲击，短期菲利普斯曲线也 会移动。
– 较大的总供给不利变化使失业与通货膨胀之间的短期 替代关系更加严重。 – 供给的不利冲击给决策者在通货膨胀与失业之间更加 不利的权衡取舍。
图5. 预期的通货膨胀如何使短期菲利普斯曲线移动
通货膨 胀率
2. . . . 但在长期中，预期的 通货膨胀上升，而且短期 菲利普斯曲线向右移动。 长期菲利 普斯曲线
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高预期通货膨胀时的 短期菲利普斯曲线
A 1.扩张性政策使经济沿着短期
菲利普斯曲线向上移动……
低预期通货膨胀时的 短期菲利普斯曲线
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移动。
• 不利的供给冲击给决策者一个较为不利的
通货膨胀与失业之间的权衡取舍。
© 2007 Thomson South-Western
Summary
• 当美联储紧缩货币增长以减少通货膨胀时， 它使经济沿着短期菲利普斯曲线移动。
• 这就引起暂时的高失业。 • 反通货膨胀的代价取决于通货膨胀预期会 多快地下降。
• 菲利普斯曲线说明了短期中出现的通货膨胀 与失业的结合，这种结合的原因是总需求曲 线移动驱使经济沿着短期总供给曲线移动。 • 对物品与劳务的需求量越大，经济中的产量 就越高，物价总水平也就越高。 • 较高的产量带来较低的失业率 。
© 2007 Thomson South-Western
第七讲 通货膨胀与失业之间的短期权衡取舍
一、菲利普斯曲线 Phillips Curve
经济学原理之十:社会面临通货膨胀与失业之间 经济学原理之十 社会面临通货膨胀与失业之间 的权衡取舍。 的权衡取舍。 菲利普斯曲线表明了通货膨胀与失业之间的关系。 菲利普斯曲线表明了通货膨胀与失业之间的关系。 1958年，Phillips在英国《经济学杂志》发表文章， 年 在英国《 在英国 经济学杂志》发表文章， 论述失业率与通货膨胀率之间存在负相关关系。 论述失业率与通货膨胀率之间存在负相关关系。 低失业的年份往往有高通货膨胀， 低失业的年份往往有高通货膨胀，高失业的年份 往往有低通货膨胀。 往往有低通货膨胀。
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失业率= a(实际通货膨胀 实际通货膨胀失业率=自然失业率 - a(实际通货膨胀-预期 通货膨胀） 通货膨胀） 这个式子把失业率与自然失业率、实际通货膨 这个式子把失业率与自然失业率、 胀及预期的通货膨胀联系起来了。 胀及预期的通货膨胀联系起来了。 如果经济有菲利普斯曲线： 如果经济有菲利普斯曲线： = π−1 − 0.5（u -0.06 菲利普斯曲线 π ） 那么该经济的自然失业率为多少？ 那么该经济的自然失业率为多少？要使通货膨 胀减少5%，必须有多少周期性失业？ ，必须有多少周期性失业？ 胀减少
产量
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供给冲击:直接改变企业的成本和销售价格的事件。 供给冲击:直接改变企业的成本和销售价格的事件。 这使经济的总供给曲线移动， 这使经济的总供给曲线移动，进而使菲利普斯曲线 移动。 移动。 在20世纪70年代，当欧佩克削减产量并提高石油世 20世纪70年代， 世纪70年代 界价格时，决策者面临了两次选择。 界价格时，决策者面临了两次选择。扩大总需求以 对付失业，就将进一步提高通货膨胀。 对付失业，就将进一步提高通货膨胀。紧缩总需求 以对付通货膨胀，就将进一步增加失业。 以对付通货膨胀，就将进一步增加失业。
曼昆微观经济学-名词解释归纳
16、菲利普斯曲线:通货膨胀与失业之间 的短期权衡取舍。
1、稀缺性：社会资源的有限性。
2、经济学:研究社会如何管理自己的稀缺资源. 17、经济周期：就业和生产等经济活动的 波动。
3、效率：社会能从其稀缺资源中得到最大利益的特性。
4、平等：经济成果在社会成员中公平分配的特性。
1、循环流向图：一个说明货币如何通过市场在家庭与企业之间流动的直观经济模型。
5、机会成本：为了得到某种东西所必须放弃的东西。
6、理性人：系统而有目的地尽最大努力实现起目标的人。
7、边际变动:对行动计划微小的增量调整。
8、激励:引起一个人做出某种行为的某种东西。
9、市场经济：当许多企业和家庭在物品与劳务市场上相互交易时，通过他们的分散决策配置资源的经济。
2、生产可能性边界：表示一个经济在可得到的生产要素与生产技术既定时所能生产的产量的各种组合的图形。
3、微观经济学：研究家庭和企业如何做出决策,以及它们在市场上的相互交易。
4、宏观经济学：研究整体经济现象，包括通货膨胀、失业和经济增长。
5、实证表述：企图描述世界是什么的观点。
10、产权:个人拥有并控制稀缺资源的能力。
6、规范描述:企图描述世界应该如何运行的观点。
11、市场失灵：市场本身不能有效配置资 源的情况。
12、外部性：一个人的行为对旁观者福利 的影响。
13、市场势力：一个经济活动者（或经济活动者的一个小集团）对市场价格有显著影响的能力。
14、生产率：一个工人一小时所生产的物 品与劳务量。
1、绝对优势：根据生产率在一种物品的生产者之间的比较。
2、比较优势：根据机会成本在一种物品的生产者之间的比较。
3、进口：在国外生产而在国内销售的物品.4、出口:在国内生产而在国外销售的物品。
15、通货膨胀:经济中物价总水平的上升。
第4章供给与需求的市场力量第一章经济学十大原理第2章像经济学家一样思考第3章相互依存性与贸易的好处1、市场：由某种物品或劳务的买者与卖者组成的一个群体。
2、竞争市场：有许多买者与卖者，以至于每个人对市场价格的影响都微乎其微的市场。
中级宏观经济学通货膨胀与失业
中级宏观经济学通货膨胀与失业通货膨胀与失业是宏观经济学中两个重要的经济现象。
本文将从宏观经济学的角度出发，探讨通货膨胀与失业之间的关系，并分析其对经济的影响。
一、通货膨胀的定义与原因通货膨胀是指货币供应量的持续增加，导致物价水平普遍上涨的经济现象。
其主要原因包括货币供应过多，需求过剩等。
1.1 货币供应过多当中央银行增加货币供应时，人们手中的货币增多，导致消费和投资的需求上升，从而推动物价上涨。
1.2 需求过剩当经济处于高就业水平和强大的消费力的时候，企业的生产能力会出现不足，导致物价上涨。
二、失业的定义与类型失业是指劳动力供大于求，有能力工作但不能找到工作的经济现象。
根据原因和性质划分，失业可以分为结构性失业、摩擦性失业和周期性失业。
2.1 结构性失业结构性失业是由于劳动力供需结构不匹配引起的失业现象。
例如，劳动力技能不符合市场需求，导致部分人员无法找到适合的工作。
2.2 摩擦性失业摩擦性失业是由于劳动力在转职或者寻找新的就业机会时的短期失业现象。
这种失业通常是暂时性的，随着信息传递和资源配置的改善，很快会得到解决。
2.3 周期性失业周期性失业是由经济周期性波动引起的失业现象。
当经济处于经济衰退期时，企业生产能力下降，需求减少，导致大量员工失业。
三、通货膨胀与失业之间的关系通货膨胀与失业之间存在一定的关系。
传统上，人们普遍认为通货膨胀与失业之间存在着一种权衡关系，也称为菲利普斯曲线。
3.1 菲利普斯曲线菲利普斯曲线揭示了通货膨胀与失业之间的关系。
曲线描述了通货膨胀率与失业率之间的负相关关系。
当失业率较高时，通货膨胀率较低；反之，当失业率较低时，通货膨胀率较高。
3.2 曲线的解释与批评菲利普斯曲线的解释主要有两种观点：供给派和需求派。
供给派认为通货膨胀是由于物价上涨导致的工资增长，从而导致企业减少雇佣人员。
需求派则认为通货膨胀会刺激经济增长，从而降低失业率。
然而，近年来，由于供求关系的变化和金融市场的复杂性，菲利普斯曲线的可靠性受到了一定程度的质疑。
经济学原理 (12.5)--通货膨胀与失业之间的短期权衡取舍、宏观经济政策的六个争论问题-习题答案
Principles of Economics II (Spring 2013)Homework #6(Chapter 33-36, due on June 14th, 2013, submitted out of class)Note: All textbook problem numbers refer to “Problems and Application” part in corresponding chapter, the 6th Chinese/U.S. edition of the textbook.For Chapter 331.Textbook, Chapter 33, #33. a. The current state of the economy is shown in Figure 7. The aggregate-demandcurve and short-run aggregate-supply curve intersect at the same point on thelong-run aggregate-supply curve.Figure 7b. If the central bank increases the money supply, aggregate demand shifts tothe right (to point B). In the short run, there is an increase in output and theprice level.c. Over time, nominal wages, prices, and perceptions will adjust to this new pricelevel. As a result, the short-run aggregate-supply curve will shift to the left.The economy will return to its natural rate of output (point C).d. According to the sticky-wage theory, nominal wages at points A and B areequal. However, nominal wages at point C are higher.e. According to the sticky-wage theory, real wages at point B are lower than realwages at point A. However, real wages at points A and C are equal.f. Yes, this analysis is consistent with long-run monetary neutrality. In the longrun, an increase in the money supply causes an increase in the nominal wage,but leaves the real wage unchanged.2.Textbook, Chapter 33, # 55. a. The statement that "the aggregate-demand curve slopes downward because itis the horizontal sum of the demand curves for individual goods" is false. Theaggregate-demand curve slopes downward because a fall in the price levelraises the overall quantity of goods and services demanded through the wealtheffect, the interest-rate effect, and the exchange-rate effect.b. The statement that "the long-run aggregate-supply curve is vertical becauseeconomic forces do not affect long-run aggregate supply" is false. Economicforces of various kinds (such as population and productivity) do affect long-runaggregate supply. The long-run aggregate-supply curve is vertical because theprice level does not affect long-run aggregate supply.c. The statement that "if firms adjusted their prices every day, then the short-runaggregate-supply curve would be horizontal" is false. If firms adjusted pricesquickly and if sticky prices were the only possible cause for the upward slope ofthe short-run aggregate-supply curve, then the short-run aggregate-supplycurve would be vertical, not horizontal. The short-run aggregate supply curvewould be horizontal only if prices were completely fixed.d. The statement that "whenever the economy enters a recession, its long-runaggregate-supply curve shifts to the left" is false. An economy could enter arecession if either the aggregate-demand curve or the short-runaggregate-supply curve shifts to the left.3.Textbook, Chapter 33, # 88. a. People will likely expect that the new chairman will not actively fight inflationso they will expect the price level to rise.b. If people believe that the price level will be higher over the next year, workerswill want higher nominal wages.c. At any given price level, higher labor costs lead to reduced profitability.d. The short-run aggregate-supply curve will shift to the left as shown in Figure10.Figure 10e. A decline in short-run aggregate supply leads to reduced output and a higherprice level.f. No, this choice was probably not wise. The end result is stagflation, whichprovides limited choices in terms of policies to remedy the situation.Figure 114.Textbook, Chapter 33, # 99. a. If households decide to save a larger share of their income, they must spendless on consumer goods, so the aggregate-demand curve shifts to the left, as shown in Figure 11. The equilibrium changes from point A to point B, so theprice level declines and output declines.b. If Florida orange groves suffer a prolonged period of below-freezingtemperatures, the orange harvest will be reduced. This decline in the naturalrate of output is represented in Figure 12 by a shift to the left in both theshort-run and long-run aggregate-supply curves. The equilibrium changesfrom point A to point B, so the price level rises and output declines.Figure 12Figure 13c. If increased job opportunities cause people to leave the country, the long-runand short-run aggregate-supply curves will shift to the left because there arefewer people producing output. The aggregate-demand curve will also shift tothe left because there are fewer people consuming goods and services. Theresult is a decline in the quantity of output, as Figure 13 shows. Whether theprice level rises or declines depends on the relative sizes of the shifts in theaggregate-demand curve and the aggregate-supply curves.5.Textbook, Chapter 33, #1111. a. If firms become optimistic about future business conditions and increaseinvestment, the result is shown in Figure 18. The economy begins at point Awith aggregate-demand curve AD1 and short-run aggregate-supply curve AS1.The equilibrium has price level P1 and output level Y1. Increased optimismleads to greater investment, so the aggregate-demand curve shifts to AD2.Now the economy is at point B, with price level P2 and output level Y2. Theaggregate quantity of output supplied rises because the price level has risenand people have misperceptions about the price level, wages are sticky, orprices are sticky, all of which cause output supplied to increase.Figure 18b. Over time, as the misperceptions of the price level disappear, wages adjust, orprices adjust, the short-run aggregate-supply curve shifts up to AS2 and theeconomy gets to equilibrium at point C, with price level P3 and output level Y1.The quantity of output demanded declines as the price level rises.c. The investment boom might increase the long-run aggregate-supply curvebecause higher investment today means a larger capital stock in the future,thus higher productivity and output.6.Textbook, Chapter 33, # 1212. Economy B would have a more steeply sloped short-run aggregate-supply curvethan would Economy A, because only half of the wages in Economy B are “sticky.”A 5% increase in the money supply would have a larger effect on output inEconomy A and a larger effect on the price level in Economy B.7.True or false? Keynes's primary message in The General Theory was that short-run economicfluctuations were the result of inadequate aggregate demand that could be corrected by using government policy.TrueFor Chapter 348.Textbook, Chapter 34, # 11. a. When the Fed’s bond traders buy bonds in open-market operations, themoney-supply curve shifts to the right from MS1 to MS2, as shown in Figure 1.The result is a decline in the interest rate.Figure 1 Figure 2b. When an increase in credit card availability reduces the cash people hold, themoney-demand curve shifts to the left from MD1 to MD2, as shown in Figure 2.The result is a decline in the interest rate.c. When the Federal Reserve reduces reserve requirements, the money supplyincreases, so the money-supply curve shifts to the right from MS1 to MS2, asshown in Figure 1. The result is a decline in the interest rate.d. When households decide to hold more money to use for holiday shopping, themoney-demand curve shifts to the right from MD1 to MD2, as shown in Figure3. The result is a rise in the interest rate.Figure 3e. When a wave of optimism boosts business investment and expands aggregatedemand, money demand increases from MD1 to MD2 in Figure 3. The increasein money demand increases the interest rate.Figure 49.Textbook, Chapter 34, # 22. a. The increase in the money supply will cause the equilibrium interest rate todecline, as shown in Figure 4. Households will increase spending and willinvest in more new housing. Firms too will increase investment spending. Thiswill cause the aggregate demand curve to shift to the right as shown in Figure5.Figure 5b. As shown in Figure 5, the increase in aggregate demand will cause an increasein both output and the price level in the short run (point B).c. When the economy makes the transition from its short-run equilibrium to itslong-run equilibrium, short-run aggregate supply will decline, causing the pricelevel to rise even further (point C).d. The increase in the price level will cause an increase in the demand for money,raising the equilibrium interest rate.e. Yes. While output initially rises because of the increase in aggregate demand,it will fall once short-run aggregate supply declines. Thus, there is no long-runeffect of the increase in the money supply on real output.10.Textbook, Chapter 34, # 3Figure 63. a. When fewer ATMs are available, money demand is increased and themoney-demand curve shifts to the right from MD1 to MD2, as shown in Figure6. If the Fed does not change the money supply, which is at MS1, the interestrate will rise from r1 to r2. The increase in the interest rate shifts theaggregate-demand curve to the left, as consumption and investment fall.b. If the Fed wants to stabilize aggregate demand, it should increase the moneysupply to MS2, so the interest rate will remain at r1 and aggregate demand willnot change.c. To increase the money supply using open market operations, the Fed shouldbuy government bonds.11.Textbook, Chapter 34, #88. a. The initial effect of the tax reduction of $20 billion is to increase aggregatedemand by $20 billion × 3/4 (the MPC) = $15 billion.b. Additional effects follow this initial effect as the added incomes are spent. Thesecond round leads to increased consumption spending of $15 billion × 3/4 =$11.25 billion. The third round gives an increase in consumption of $11.25billion × 3/4 = $8.44 billion. The effects continue indefinitely. Adding them allup gives a total effect that depends on the multiplier. With an MPC of 3/4, themultiplier is 1/(1 – 3/4) = 4. So the total effect is $15 billion × 4 = $60 billion.c. Government purchases have an initial effect of the full $20 billion, becausethey increase aggregate demand directly by that amount. The total effect of anincrease in government purchases is thus $20 billion × 4 = $80 billion. Sogovernment purchases lead to a bigger effect on output than a tax cut does.The difference arises because government purchases affect aggregatedemand by the full amount, but a tax cut is partly saved by consumers, andtherefore does not lead to as much of an increase in aggregate demand.d. The government could increase taxes by the same amount it increases itspurchases.12.Textbook, Chapter 34, # 99. If the marginal propensity to consume is 0.8, the spending multiplier will be 1/(1 – 0.8) = 5. Therefore, the government would have to increase spending by $400/5 = $80 billion to close the recessionary gap.13.Textbook, Chapter 34, 1111. a. Expansionary fiscal policy is more likely to lead to a short-run increase ininvestment if the investment accelerator is large. A large investmentaccelerator means that the increase in output caused by expansionary fiscalpolicy will induce a large increase in investment. Without a large accelerator,investment might decline because the increase in aggregate demand will raisethe interest rate.b. Expansionary fiscal policy is more likely to lead to a short-run increase ininvestment if the interest sensitivity of investment is small. Because fiscalpolicy increases aggregate demand, thus increasing money demand and theinterest rate, the greater the sensitivity of investment to the interest rate thegreater the decline in investment will be, which will offset the positiveaccelerator effect.For Chapter 3514.Textbook, Chapter 35, #11. Figure 8 shows two different short-run Phillips curves depicting these four points.Points A and D are on SRPC1 because both have expected inflation of 3%. Points Band C are on SRPC2 because both have expected inflation of 5%.Figure 815.Textbook, Chapter 35, #4Figure 144. a. Figure 14 shows the economy in long-run equilibrium at point A, which is onboth the long-run and short-run Phillips curves.b. A wave of business pessimism reduces aggregate demand, moving theeconomy to point B in the figure. The unemployment rate rises and theinflation rate declines. If the Fed undertakes expansionary monetary policy, itcan increase aggregate demand, offsetting the pessimism and returning theeconomy to point A, with the initial inflation rate and unemployment rate.c. Figure 15 shows the effects on the economy if the price of imported oil rises.The higher price of imported oil shifts the short-run Phillips curve up fromSRPC1 to SRPC2. The economy moves from point A to point C, with a higherinflation rate and higher unemployment rate. If the Fed engages inexpansionary monetary policy, it can return the economy to its originalunemployment rate at point D, but the inflation rate will be higher. If the Fedengages in contractionary monetary policy, it can return the economy to itsoriginal inflation rate at point E, but the unemployment rate will be higher. Thissituation differs from that in part (b) because in part (b) the economy stayedon the same short-run Phillips curve, but in part (c) the economy moved to ahigher short-run Phillips curve, which gives policymakers a less favorabletrade-off between inflation and unemployment.Figure 1516.Textbook, Chapter 35, #6Figure 166. If the Fed acts on its belief that the natural rate of unemployment is 4%, when thenatural rate is in fact 5%, the result will be a spiraling up of the inflation rate, asshown in Figure 16. Starting from a point on the long-run Phillips curve, with anunemployment rate of 5%, the Fed will believe that the economy is in a recession,because the unemployment rate is greater than its estimate of the natural rate.Therefore, the Fed will increase the money supply, moving the economy along theshort-run Phillips curve SRPC1. The inflation rate will rise and the unemploymentrate will fall to 4%. As the inflation rate rises over time, expectations of inflationwill rise, and the short-run Phillips curve will shift up to SRPC2. This process willcontinue, and the inflation rate will spiral upwards.The Fed may eventually realize that its estimate of the natural rate ofunemployment is wrong by examining the rising trend in the inflation rate.17.Textbook, Chapter 35, #77. a. If wage contracts have short durations, a recession induced by contractionarymonetary policy will be less severe, because wage contracts can be adjustedmore rapidly to reflect the lower inflation rate. This will allow a more rapidmovement of the short-run aggregate-supply curve and short-run Phillipscurve to restore the economy to long-run equilibrium.b. If there is little confidence in the Fed's determination to reduce inflation, arecession induced by contractionary monetary policy will be more severe. Itwill take longer for people's inflation expectations to adjust downwards.c. If expectations of inflation adjust quickly to actual inflation, a recessioninduced by contractionary monetary policy will be less severe. In this case,people's expectations adjust quickly, so the short-run Phillips curve shiftsquickly to restore the economy to long-run equilibrium at the natural rate ofunemployment.18.Textbook, Chapter 35, #9Figure 179. a. As shown in the left diagram of Figure 17, equilibrium output and employmentwill fall. However, the effects on the price level and inflation rate will beambiguous. The fall in aggregate demand puts downward pressure on prices,while the decline in short-run aggregate supply pushes prices up. The diagramon the right side of Figure 17 assumes that the inflation rate rises.b. The Fed would have to use expansionary monetary policy to keep output andemployment at their natural rates. Aggregate demand would have to shift toAD3.c. The Fed may not want to pursue this action because it will lead to a rise in theinflation rate as shown by point C.19.选举周期与经济波动：一个经济某一年的菲利普斯曲线由下列的关系式确定：π = πe - (u - 4%)。
曼昆的十大经济学原理
曼昆的十大经济学原理曼昆（N. Gregory Mankiw）是一位知名的经济学家，他在其著作《宏观经济学原理》中提出了十大经济学原理，这些原理不仅对经济学领域有着重要的指导意义，也对我们理解经济运行规律有着重要的启示。
接下来，我们将逐一介绍这十大经济学原理。
第一条原理是“人们面临权衡取舍”。
这个原理告诉我们，在资源有限的情况下，人们需要在各种选择之间进行权衡取舍。
任何决策都意味着放弃其他选择，这就是经济学中的“机会成本”概念。
第二条原理是“某种东西的成本是为了得到它所放弃的东西”。
这一原理与第一条原理相呼应，它强调了机会成本的概念。
在做出决策时，我们需要考虑到放弃某种东西所带来的成本。
第三条原理是“理性人考虑边际量”。
边际量指的是一种额外的量，理性人会比较边际量与边际成本来做出决策。
这一原理对于理解人们的决策行为有着重要的启示作用。
第四条原理是“人们会对激励作出反应”。
激励是人们行为的重要驱动力，人们会对各种激励作出反应，这一原理对于理解市场经济中的行为有着重要的意义。
第五条原理是“贸易可以使每个人的状况都变得更好”。
贸易能够让每个人更好地利用自己的优势，从而实现互利互惠，这一原理是国际贸易理论的基础。
第六条原理是“市场通常是组织经济活动的一种好方法”。
市场机制能够有效地调节资源配置，实现资源的有效利用，这一原理是市场经济制度的基础。
第七条原理是“政府有时可以改善市场结果”。
尽管市场能够有效地调节资源配置，但有些时候政府的干预也是必要的，比如修正市场失灵和提供公共产品等。
第八条原理是“一国的生活水平取决于它生产物品和服务的能力”。
经济增长是提高生活水平的根本途径，这一原理强调了生产力的重要性。
第九条原理是“当政府发行了过多货币时，物价上升”。
通货膨胀是货币供应过多的结果，这一原理强调了货币政策对于通货膨胀的影响。
第十条原理是“社会面临通货膨胀和失业之间的短期权衡取舍”。
通货膨胀和失业之间存在一种短期的权衡取舍关系，这一原理对宏观经济政策的制定有着重要的指导意义。
经济学十大原理解析
经济学十大原理解析
经济学十大原理是哈佛大学经济学教授格里高利·曼昆在其著作《经济学原理》中提出的，这些原理包括：
1.人们面临权衡取舍：稀缺性意味着人们必须在不同的目标之间进行权衡取舍，比如时间、金钱、资源等。
2.某种东西的成本是为了得到它所放弃的东西：机会成本是指为了得到某种东西而放弃的其他东西的价值。
3.理性人考虑边际量：理性人在做决策时会考虑边际成本和边际收益，即增加一个单位的某种资源所带来的成本和收益。
4.人们会对激励做出反应：人们的决策和行为受到激励的影响，他们会根据激励做出相应的反应。
5.贸易能使每个人状况更好：贸易可以使不同的人在不同的领域发挥优势，从而提高整个社会的福利。
6.市场通常是组织经济活动的好方法：市场可以通过价格机制来调节资源的分配，提高经济效率。
7.政府有时可以改善市场结果：政府可以通过干预市场来纠正市场失灵，提高社会福利。
8.一国的生活水平取决于其生产率：生产率决定了资源的利用效率，从而影响生活水平。
9.当政府发行了过多货币时，物价上升：过多发行货币会导致通货膨胀，物价上升。
10.社会面临通货膨胀与失业之间的短期权衡取舍：在短期内，增加就业可能导致通货膨胀，而抑制通货膨胀可能导致失业率上升。
这些原理是经济学的基础，对于理解经济现象和制定经济政策具有重要意义。
通货膨涨与失业之间的短期权衡取舍
菲利普斯曲线的移动：预期的作用
• 菲利普斯曲线看来为决策者提供了一个可 能的通货膨涨－失业结果的菜单。
长期菲利普斯曲线
• 20世纪60年代，弗里德曼和费尔普斯得出结 论：通货膨涨和失业在长期是不相关的。
• 因而，长期菲利普斯曲线是自然失业率水平的 垂线。 • 货币政策在短期有效但长期不是。
图 3 长期菲利普斯曲线
沃尔克的反通货膨涨
• 当保罗.沃尔克在20世纪70年代担任美联储主 席时，通货膨涨被广泛认为是国家的首要问 题之一。 • 沃尔克在降低通货膨涨上成功了（从10％降 到4％），但是是以高失业为代价的（1983 年失业率近10％）。
格林斯潘时代
• 担任美联储主席的艾伦.格林斯潘时代从有利 的供给冲击开始。
• 1986年，欧佩克成员打破了限制供给的协议。 • 这引起通货膨涨下降与失业减少。
图 11 沃尔克的反通货膨涨
通货膨涨率
（年百分比）
10
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图 12 格林斯潘时代
通货膨涨率
菲利普斯曲线的移动：供给冲击的作用 • 一个供给冲击将直接改变厂商的成本， 进而促使他们调整产品的价格. • 经济体的总供给曲线的移动（图8.a） • 结果导致菲利普斯曲线也相应的发生 了移动（图8.b）
图 8 总供给的不利冲击
(a) 总需求和总供给模型 物价水平 AS2 总供给 AS P2 P B A 通货膨涨率
[经济学]第35章 通货膨胀和失业之间的短期权衡取舍
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[经济学]第35章通货膨胀和失业之间的短期权衡取舍第三十五章通货膨胀与失业之间的短期权衡，菲利普斯曲线，菲利普斯曲线运动:预期效应，通货膨胀与失业之间的短期权衡，菲利普斯曲线运动:供给冲击，降低通货膨胀成本，结论，顺序，执行摘要，菲利普斯曲线描述了通货膨胀与失业之间的负相关关系。
与此同时，降低失业率的政策导致了更高的通货膨胀率以及通货膨胀与失业之间的负相关。
只有在短期内，不利的供应冲击才会改变短期菲利普斯曲线。
当美联储收紧货币供应以降低通货膨胀时，它将使经济沿着短期菲利普斯曲线运行，这将导致暂时的高失业率。
反通胀的成本取决于通胀预期的下降速度。
一些经济学家认为，可信的低通胀承诺可以通过调整预期来降低反通胀成本。
通货膨胀和失业之间的短期权衡。
依次，通货膨胀和失业是人们经常关心的两个指标。
一些经济学家称通货膨胀率和失业率之和为社会的“痛苦指数”。
从长远来看，最低工资法、工会力量、效率工资和求职的有效性决定了失业率。
货币供应量的增长决定了通货膨胀率。
短期内情况完全不同。
当决策者使用财政或货币政策来扩大总需求时，他们可以在短期内扩大产出并降低失业率，但这会导致价格快速上涨。
当决策者采取紧缩的财政或货币政策时，通货膨胀和失业之间的短期权衡可以在短期内减少，但代价是暂时的低产出和高失业率。
在本章中，我们将进一步研究通货膨胀和失业之间的短期权衡。
1958年，英国经济学家菲利普斯首次发现了通货膨胀和失业之间的负相关关系(当时他用名义工资的变化来表示通货膨胀)。
两年后，美国经济学家萨缪尔森(Samuelson)和索洛(Solow)用美国数据显示了通胀和失业之间的负相关性。
此外，得出的结论是，这种相关性是由于低失业率和高总需求之间的相关性。
两人指出，菲利普斯曲线为决策者提供了一个可能的经济结果菜单。
通过改变货币或财政政策，决策者可以选择曲线上的任何一点，通货膨胀和失业之间的短期权衡，菲利普斯曲线和菲利普斯曲线为决策者提供了一个可能的经济结果菜单。
宏观经济学十大原理
宏观经济学十大原理
宏观经济学十大原理是由经济学家尼高拉斯·格里高利·曼昆在他的著作《宏观经济学原理》中提出的。
这些原理是用来解释宏观经济学中的基本概念和现象的。
以下是宏观经济学十大原理的简要介绍：
1、人们面临权衡取舍的原理：人们在资源有限的情况下需要做出选择，因为资源的供给是有限的。
2、某种东西的成本是为了得到它所放弃的东西的价值：也被称为机会成本，指的是为了得到某种东西而放弃的其他可行选择的价值。
3、理性人考虑边际量：理性人在做决策时，会考虑每个额外单位的成本和收益。
4、人们会对激励作出反应：人们对激励做出反应，激励可以是奖励或惩罚，会影响人们的行为。
5、贸易可以使每个人的状况都变得更好：通过贸易，人们可以充分利用各自的比较优势，从而提高整体福利。
6、市场通常是组织经济活动的一种好方法：市场机制可以有效地分配资源和决定价格。
7、政府有时可以改善市场结果：政府可以通过干预市场来解决市场失灵的问题，例如调节外部性和提供公共物品。
8、一国的生活水平取决于它生产物品和服务的能力：一个国家的生活水平取决于它的生产能力，即它能够生产出多少物品和服务。
9、当政府发行过多货币时，物价上升：货币供给的增加会导致通货膨胀。
10、社会面临通货膨胀和失业之间的短期权衡取舍：政府在短期内面临通货膨胀和失业之间的权衡取舍，政策的选择会影响社会的整体福利。
《中级宏观经济学》第13章总供给与通货膨胀和失业之间的短期取舍
CHAPTER 13 Aggregate Supply
slide 2
三种总供给模型
1. 粘性价格模型（sticky-price model） 2. 粘性工资模型（sticky-wage model） 3. 不完全信息模型（imperfect-information model）
Y Y (P P e )
SRAS 关于总供给3模 型意味着 SRAS
曲线和该方程
CHAPTER 13 Aggregate Supply
slide 18
If there is a sudden increase in the price level, the farmer doesn’t know if it is a change in overall prices or just the price of wheat. Typically, she will assume that it is a relative price increase and will therefore increase the production of wheat. Most suppliers will tend to make this mistake. To sum up, the notion that output deviates from its natural level when the price level deviates from the expected price level is captured by:
slide 12
Y = F(L)
L = Ld (W/P) Labor, L
An increase in the price level, reduces the real wage for a given
清华经济学原理29通货膨胀与失业之间的短期权衡取舍、宏观经济政策的六个争论问题
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菲利普斯曲线 The Phillips Curve...
通货膨胀率 （每年百分比） Inflation Rate (percent per year)
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失业率（百分比） 12 Unemployment
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菲利普斯曲线 The Phillips Curve
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失业与通货膨胀 Unemployment and Inflation
通胀与失业的关系这一话题吸引了过去半个 世纪最重要的一些经济学家的注意力。 The relationship between inflation and unemployment is a topic that has attracted attention of some of the most important economists of the last half-century. 关于通胀与失业的思想史不可避免地和美国 经济的历史相联系。 The history of thought regarding inflation and unemployment since the 1950s is inextricably connected to the history of the U.S. economy.
通货膨胀与失业之间的短期权衡 The Short-Run Tradeoff between Inflation and Unemployment
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失业与通货膨胀 Unemployment and Inflation
两个密切受到注视的经济状况指标是通货膨 胀和失业。 Two closely watched indicators of economic performance are inflation and unemployment. 将通货膨胀率和失业率相加得到痛苦指数， 它是经济“健康”的一个衡量指标。 The misery index, one measure of the “health” of the economy, adds together the inflation rate and unemployment rate.
宏观经济学第35章通货膨胀与失业之间的短期均衡取舍
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预期通货 膨胀
在短期中 美联储可以使失业率降到自然失业率以下，而使 实际通货膨胀高于预期通货膨胀
在长期中 预期通货膨胀与现实相符，失业率回到自然失业 率，无论通货膨胀是高还是低
通货膨胀与失业之间的短期权衡取舍
13
预期通货膨胀如何移动菲利普斯曲线
最初，预期通货膨胀与实 际通货膨胀都等于3%, 失业率 =自然率 (6%)
▪ 这是基于古典二分法和垂直的长期总供给曲线
通货膨胀与失业之间的短期权衡取舍
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垂直的长期菲利普斯曲线
在长期中，货币增长越快只会导致通货膨胀率越高
P
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通货膨胀与失业之间的短期权衡取舍
自然失业率
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使理论与证据一致
▪ 来自20世纪60年代的证据：
▪ 低失业与高通货膨胀 ▪ 低通货膨胀与高失业 ▪ 两者之间的任何情况
▪ 20世纪60年代，美国的数据支持菲利普斯曲线。
许多人认为菲利普斯曲线是稳定可信的
通货膨胀与失业之间的短期权衡取舍
7
13.1 菲利普斯曲线
13.2 菲利普斯曲线的移动：预期的 作用
垂直的长期的菲利普斯曲线 使理论与证据一致 短期菲利普斯曲线
沃尔克的反通货膨胀 格林斯潘时代 伯南克的挑战
通货膨胀与失业之间的短期权衡取舍
2
介绍
▪ 在长期中，通货膨胀与失业是不相关的：
▪ 通货膨胀率主要取决于货币供给的增长率 ▪ 自然失业率取决于最低工资法，工会的市场势力，
效率工资以及寻找工作的有效性
▪ 经济学十大原理之一：
宏观经济 第35章 通货膨胀与失业之间的短期权衡取舍(选择+判断+答案)
第35章通货膨胀与失业之间的短期权衡取舍21. According to the Phillips curve, policymakers would reduce inflation but raise unemployment if theyA. decreased the money supply.B. increased government expenditures.C. decreased taxes.D. None of the above is correct.22. If policymakers decrease aggregate demand, then in the long runA. prices will be lower and unemployment will be higher.B. prices will be lower and unemployment will be unchanged.C. prices and unemployment will be unchanged.D. None of the above is correct.23. Friedman and Phelps arguedA. that in the long run, monetary growth did not influence those factors that determine the economy's unemployment rate.B. that the Phillips curve could be exploited in the long run by using monetary, but not fiscal policy.C. that the short-run Phillips curve was very steep, but not vertical.D. that there was neither a short-run nor long-run tradeoff between inflation and unemployment.24. If the Federal Reserve increases the rate at which it increases the money supply, then unemployment is lowerA. in the long run and the short run.B. in the long run but not the short run.C. in the short run but not the long run.D. in neither the short run nor the long run.25. How would a decrease in the natural rate of unemployment affect the long-run Phillips curve?A. It would shift the long-run Phillips curve right.B. It would shift the long-run Phillips curve left.C. There would be an upward movement along a given long-run Phillips curve.D. There would be a downward movement along a given long-run Philips curve.答案：ABACB26. A movement to the left along a given short-run Phillips curve could be caused bya. a reduction in the natural rate of unemployment or expansionary monetary policy.b. expansionary monetary policy, but not a reduction in the natural rate of unemployment.c. either a reduction in the natural rate of unemployment or a contractionary monetary policy.d. contractionary monetary policy, but not a reduction in the natural rate of unemployment.27. If the minimum wage increased, then at any given rate of inflationa. both output and employment would be higher.b. neither output nor employment would be higher.c. output would be higher and unemployment would be lower.d. output would be lower and unemployment would be higher.28. If expected inflation increases, which of the following shifts right?a. both the short-run and the long-run Phillips curvesb. the short-run but not the long-run Phillips curvec. the long-run but not the short-run Phillips curved. neither the long-run nor the short-run Phillips curve29. According to Friedman and Phelps's analysis of the Phillips curve,a. the unemployment rate will be below its natural rate whenever inflation is negative.b. the unemployment rate will be below its natural rate whenever inflation is positive.c. the unemployment rate will be below its natural rate only if inflation is less than expected.d. the unemployment rate will be below its natural rate only if inflation is greater than expected.30. A policy intended to reduce unemployment by taking advantage of atradeoff between inflation and unemployment leads toa. both higher inflation and higher unemployment in the long run.b. higher inflation and no change in unemployment in the long run.c. the same inflation rate and lower unemployment in the long run.d. higher inflation and lower unemployment in the long runBDBDB31. In the long run, a decrease in the money supply growth ratea. shifts the short-run Phillips curve left so inflation returns to its original rate.b. shifts the short-run Phillips curve left so unemployment returns to its natural rate.c. Both A and B are correct.d. None of the above is correct.32. Which of the following is correct if there is a favorable supply shock?a. the short-run aggregate supply curve and the short-run Phillips curve both shift right.b. the short-run aggregate supply curve and the short-run Phillips curve both shift left.c. the short-run aggregate supply curve shifts right and the short-run Phillips curve shifts left.d. the short-run aggregate supply curve shifts left and the short-run Phillips curve shifts right.33. If there is an adverse supply shock and the Federal Reserve responds by increasing the growth rate of the money supply, then in the short run the Federal Reserve’s actiona. lowers both inflation and unemployment.b. lowers inflation but raises unemployment.c. raises inflation but lowers unemployment.d. raises both inflation and unemployment.34 Which of the following shifts aggregate supply to the right?a. a decline in the price of imported natural resourcesb. a technological advancec. an older labor force that leaves jobs less frequentlyd. All of the above are correct.BCCD1. According to the natural rate hypothesis, the unemployment rate should equal 0 percent in the long run.2. The long-run Phillips curve is a upward-sloping line at the natural rate of unemployment.3. A decrease in the growth rate of the money supply eventually causes the short-run Phillips curve to shift right.4. An adverse supply shock shifts the short-run Phillips curve right and the short-run aggregate-supply curve left.5. An increase in inflation expectations shifts the short-run Phillips curve right and has no effect on the long-run Phillips curve.6. A policy change that reduces the natural rate of unemployment shifts both the long-run aggregate-supply curve and the long-run Phillips curve left.7. In the long run people come to expect whatever inflation rate the Fed chooses to produce, so unemployment returns to its natural rate.8. In the Friedman-Phelps analysis, when inflation is less than expected, the unemployment rate is less than the natural rate.9. Fiscal policy cannot be used to move the economy along the short-run Phillips curve.10. If the Fed were to increase the money supply, inflation would increase and unemployment would decrease in the short run.11. The proliferation of Internet usage serves as an example of a favorable supply shock.FFFTTFTFFTT。
曼昆中级宏观经济学知识点整理 12 总供给与通货膨胀和失业之间的短期权衡
第十二章、总供给与通货膨胀和失业之间的短期权衡第一节、总供给的基本理论一、两种总供给模型1、粘性价格模型强调企业不能针对需求变动即刻调整他们索取的价格。
（1）价格粘性的原因①企业与顾客之间的长期合约决定；②一旦企业印制和分发它的产品目录或价格单，改变起来成本高昂；③可能是工资黏性的反映。
（2）企业的合意价格企业的合意价格p 取决于两个宏观经济变量：1）价格总体水平更高的价格水平意味着更高的企业成本。
因此，价格总体水平越高，企业对自己的产品想要收取的价格也越高。
2）总收入水平更高的收入水平提高了对企业产品的需求。
由于在更高的生产水平上边际成本增加，所以，需求越大，企业的合意价格也越高。
企业的合意价格是：p=P+ a（Y-Y(预期)）其中a > 0，衡量企业的合意价格对总产出水平的反应有多大这个方程表明：当价格水平偏离预期的价格水平时，产出就偏离其自然水平；参数α表明产出对未预期到的价格水平变动作出的反应有多大，1/α是总供给曲线的斜率。
（3）表现形式与结论2、不完备信息模型（1）假定①市场出清，供需平衡；②每个供给者只生产一种产品和消费很多产品，因此无法观测到所有价格；③信息不完全，混淆了价格总水平变动与相对价格的变动，影响了供给决策，导致价格水平和产出在短期存在正相关关系。
（2）分析供给者进行生产决策时，并不知道价格水平，因此使用预期的价格水平P e。
当价格水平发生了未预期到的上升时，经济中所有供给者都观察到了自己所生产的产品价格的上升。
他们都理性但是却错误地推断，他们所生产的产品的相对价格上升了，因此生产更多商品。
不完备信息模型说明，当实际价格P超过P e，供给者提高他们的产出。
3、总结①两个总供给模型中的每个模型都用来解释短期总供给曲线向右上方倾斜的市场不完备性；②第一个模型假设一些产品的价格是黏性的；第二个模型假设关于价格的信息是不完备的。
第二节、通货膨胀、失业和菲利普斯曲线一、菲利普斯曲线的定义货币工资变动率与失业率之间有一种稳定的此消彼长的关系，失业率高则表明经济处于萧条阶段，这时工资与物价水平都较低，因而有低通货膨胀率。
19宏观经济学第十九章通货膨胀与失业
19宏观经济学第十九章通货膨胀与失业通货膨胀与失业是宏观经济学中两个重要的概念。
通货膨胀是指货币供应量相对于货物和服务供应量的增长而导致物价普遍上涨的现象。
失业则是指劳动力市场上有能力和愿意工作的人，但找不到工作的状态。
本文将讨论通货膨胀与失业之间的关系以及对经济的影响。
首先，通货膨胀与失业之间存在一种称为菲利普斯曲线的相互关系。
菲利普斯曲线表明，通货膨胀率与失业率之间存在一种负相关关系。
也就是说，当通货膨胀率较高时，失业率相对较低；而当通货膨胀率较低时，失业率相对较高。
这是因为通货膨胀率的上升意味着经济繁荣，企业需要更多的劳动力来满足市场需求，从而降低了失业率。
然而，菲利普斯曲线并非是一个稳定的关系，而是受到许多其他因素的影响。
例如，供给冲击和需求冲击都可以短期内打破菲利普斯曲线。
供给冲击指的是由于自然灾害、战争等原因导致生产能力的减少，从而导致通货膨胀率的上升和失业率的增加。
需求冲击则是由于消费者支出的增加或减少而导致经济波动，进而影响通货膨胀率和失业率。
另外，通货膨胀和失业也可以相互影响。
通货膨胀会给企业带来不确定性，导致投资意愿下降，从而减少了对劳动力的需求，进而导致失业率的上升。
同时，失业率的上升也会导致社会支出的增加，从而进一步加剧通货膨胀的压力。
这种相互作用可以形成通货膨胀与失业之间的恶性循环，对经济产生不利影响。
通货膨胀和失业对经济的影响也有不同的观点。
传统的宏观经济理论认为，通货膨胀率的上升会导致失业率的下降，因为企业需要更多的劳动力来满足市场需求。
然而，新古典经济学家提出了供给侧经济学理论，认为高通货膨胀率会提高工资水平，从而减少企业的利润，进而抑制经济增长和就业机会的增加。
总的来说，通货膨胀与失业是宏观经济学中两个互相关联的现象。
尽管传统理论认为它们之间存在着负相关关系，但实际上受到许多其他因素的影响。
通货膨胀和失业之间的关系对经济发展具有重要影响，需要政府和央行采取适当的政策来平衡它们，以实现经济的稳定增长和就业机会的增加。
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Principles of Economics II (Spring 2012)
Homework #6
(Lecture 11-13, due on June 11, 2012, submitted out of class)
Note:All textbook problem numbers refer to “Problems and Application” part in corresponding chapter, the 5th international student edition of the textbook.
For Chapter 33
1.Textbook, Chapter 33, #1
2.Textbook, Chapter 33, # 2
3.Textbook, Chapter 33, # 5
4.Textbook, Chapter 33, # 9
5.Textbook, Chapter 33, # 10
6.Textbook, Chapter 33, #12
7.Textbook, Chapter 33, # 14
8.True or false? Keynes's primary message in The General Theory was that short-run economic
fluctuations were the result of inadequate aggregate demand that could be corrected by using government policy.
For Chapter 34
9.Textbook, Chapter 34, # 1
10.Textbook, Chapter 34, # 2
(Hint: An increase in money supply will increase the aggregate demand.)
11.Textbook, Chapter 34, # 3
12.Textbook, Chapter 34, #6
13.Textbook, Chapter 34, #8
14.Textbook, Chapter 34, # 9
For Chapter 35
15.Textbook, Chapter 35, #1
16.Textbook, Chapter 35, #2
17.Textbook, Chapter 35, #3
18.Textbook, Chapter 35, #6
19.Textbook, Chapter 35, #11
20.选举周期与经济波动：
一个经济某一年的菲利普斯曲线由下列的关系式确定：
= e - (u - 4%)。
其中 和 e分别代表实际和预期的通货膨胀率，u代表失业率。
预期通货膨胀率总是在上一年年底预先确定下来。
有两个政党：民主党和共和党。
两个政党对如何评价宏观经济表现持有不同的看法。
具体的，给定不同预期通货膨胀率的短期菲利普斯曲线时，两个政党各自选择的失业率不同。
如下表所示：
假定今年年底——在人们形成对下一年的预期之后——将进行选举。
民主党和共和党
有相同的机会（各为50％）获胜，并在以后若干年执政。
（1）根据菲利普斯曲线，这个经济的自然失业率是多少？
（2）根据菲利普斯曲线，说出在不同预期通胀率下，民主党和共和党各自选择的通货膨
经济在下一年中平均来说得到的实际通胀率各是多少？由此你认为哪个预期通货膨胀率是理性预期？（提示：理性的预期通胀率是人们根据已有信息可以得出的最佳
预期。
）
（4）假定人们选择了上述的理性预期。
如果是民主党当选，在当选后第一年，经济当中的实际通货膨胀率与失业率各是多少？如果是共和党当选呢？
（5）在当选后第二年，人们重新调整了自己的理性预期。
如果民主党当选，此时经济的通货膨胀率与失业率各是多少？如果是共和党当选呢？两党执政下的失业率会趋于一致吗？通货膨胀率呢？
（6）假设新当选的政府是民主党，而上一届政府也是民主党。
描述在选举后第一、二年失
业率的变化方向。
民主党连续执政是否消除了失业率的波动？
（7）如果经济当中有一个具有压倒优势的政党，使得人们预期它总能当选，而且它实际上总是当选。
这时，经济的波动是否能够被消除？
For Chapter 36
21.Textbook, Chapter 36, #2
22.Textbook, Chapter 36, #4
23.Textbook, Chapter 36, #5
24.Textbook, Chapter 36, # 9
25.The time inconsistency of policy implies that:
a.people will believe Fed policy will be more inflationary than the Fed claims.
b.what policymakers say they will do is generally what they will do, but people don’t believe them because of current policy.
c.when people expect that inflation is low, it is harder for the Fed to increase output by increasing the money supply.
d.None of the above are correct.。