系统安全理论与模型发展研究综述

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第31卷第4期2014年12月㊀土木工程与管理学报Journal of Civil Engineering and Management

Vol.31No.4Dec.2014

收稿日期:2014-05-03㊀修回日期:2014-07-17

作者简介:缑变彩(1986-),女,河南安阳人,助教,硕士,研究方向为施工安全(Email:1621109445@)基金项目:中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(2013QN028)

系统安全理论与模型发展研究综述

缑变彩1,㊀覃亚伟2,㊀王㊀帆3

(1.武汉科技大学㊀城市学院,湖北㊀武汉㊀430083;2.华中科技大学㊀土木工程与力学学院,湖北㊀武汉㊀430074;

3.长江水利委员会长江科学院,湖北㊀武汉㊀430015)

摘㊀要:复杂社会技术系统的安全绩效取决于技术层面因素与组织管理层面因素的相互作用关系,而非个体要素㊂事故被认为是复杂系统中各个要素之间相互作用所产生的一种涌现现象,需要用系统安全思想进行研究,建立相应的系统安全模型㊂本文简要回顾了事故致因与系统安全理论的发展趋势,将事故致因与系统安全理论依据研究范式划分为三代,即规范性理论与模型㊁基于系统状态偏离标准程度的描述性理论与模型㊁以及基于系统实际行为的描述性理论与模型,在此基础上,总结了建立系统安全模型的现状㊁必要性和挑战,强调建立系统安全模型需要从近端因素到远端因素㊁从静态分析到动态建模㊁从还原论到整体论进行转变,将安全分析重点从找寻事故原因转移到事故发生机理上来㊂

关键词:系统安全;㊀复杂社会技术系统;㊀安全风险建模

中图分类号:X91㊀㊀文献标识码:A㊀㊀文章编号:2095-0985(2014)04-0083-05

Review of the Development and Research on System Safety Theories and Models

GOU Bian-cai 1,QIN Ya-wei 2,WANG Fan 3

(1.Wuhan University of Science and Technology City College,Wuhan 430083,China;

2.School of Civil Engineering and Mechanics,Huazhong University of Science and Technology,

Wuhan 430074,China;3.Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute,Wuhan 430015,China)

Abstract :The safety performance of a complex socio-technical system is determined by the interaction between organizational and managerial factors and technical factors,rather than the single element

within the system.The accident can be viewed as an emergent phenomenon arises from the interaction of different agents,which requires a system safety perspective and the related system safety model.The development of accident causation and system safety was reviewed.The theories and models were classified into three generations according to the research paradigms,namely prescriptive theories and models,descriptive theories and models in terms of deviations from norms,and descriptive theories and models in terms of actual behaviors.Based on the review,current trends,motivation and challenges of establishing a system safety model were summarized.The importance of shift from

proximal factors to distal factors,from static analysis to dynamic modeling,and from reductionism to holism has been emphasized that the focus should be transferred from causes to mechanisms.Key words :system safety;complex socio-technical system;safety risk modeling ㊀㊀社会技术系统于20世纪60年代初由英国Tavistock 研究所提出[1],泛指技术密集和资金密集㊁积聚能量巨大的工业组织,认为生产系统都具有技术和社会表征,而且是紧密联系和相互作用的,系统绩效取决于这种相互作用而不是个体要

素,并由此萌发了 系统安全 的基本思想,指在一个项目的全生命周期内运用一定的技术和管理手段,系统地㊁有远见地识别和控制危险[2]㊂然而现有的事故模型对组织等社会层面的分析与生产等技术层面的分析却往往是分开进行,缺少对