美国财政部长盖特纳北京大学演讲中英文全文

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希拉里和美国财长盖特纳分别致欢迎辞中英对照

So to all of my American colleagues, members of the Cabinet, and other leaders of our government, thank you for your work on behalf of this dialogue. And to our Chinese colleagues and partners, thank you for making this long journey – not only the journey you made by the airplane that brought you here, but the journey that we are making together to build a better future for our children and our grandchildren.
Deng Xiaoping once described China’s process of reform and modernization as being like a person crossing a river by feeling his way over the stones. That is a good description of the way forward that we must chart together. We know it won’t be easy and there will certainly be times when both our countries stumble on the unexpected stones. But if we continue building the habits of cooperation and respect that this dialogue represents, and if we learn to trust one another and better understand each other’s intentions, then I am confident we will not let those slippery stones trip us up and derail our progress. We are very pleased at the habits of cooperation and understanding that have already been developed, and we greatly appreciated the successful visit by President Hu Jintao this past January and the agreements that he and President Obama have made to deepen our relationship to make it one that is positive, cooperative, and comprehensive.

中国影子银行报告

2016年底，中央经济工作会议提出，要把防范化解金融风险放到更加重要的位置。2017 年初，中央财经领导小组第十五次会议强调，要及时弥补监管短板，坚决治理市场乱象。金融管理部门坚持稳中求进工作总基调，开始对影子银行进行精准拆弹，主要措施包括：坚决打击 “无证驾驶”的非法金融集团和非法金融活动；严厉整治虚假注资、循环注资、股权代持和隐形股东；严肃查处大股东操纵和内部人控制；全力统一规范监管标准和监管流程；大力强化处罚问责；严密梳理制度漏洞；补齐制度短板，做到监管全覆盖。
中国影子银行在2008年后迅速发展，随着金融业务范围的拓展和跨行业、跨市场综合经营的扩张，影子银行每年以20%以上的速度增长。界定影子银行有4项主要标准：监管覆盖范围和强度、产品结构复杂性及杠杆水平、信息披露充分性与全面性以及集中兑付压力。据此，影子银行可以分为广义和狭义两种。广义影子银行包括同业理财及其他银行理财、银行同业特定目的载体投资、委托贷款、资金信托、信托贷款、非股票公募基金、证券业资管、保险资管、资产证券化、非股权私募基金、网络借贷P2P机构、融资租赁公司、小额贷款公司提供的贷款，商业保理公司保理、融资担保公司在保业务、非持牌机构发放的消费贷款、地方交易所提供的债权融资计划和结构化融资产品。其中，同业特定目的载体投资和同业理财、理财投非标债权等部分银行理财、委托贷款、信托贷款、网络借贷P2P贷款和非股权私募基金等业务，影子银行特征明显，风险相对较高，属于狭义影子银行。
原英国金融服务局主席特纳勋爵认为，影子银行的发展并未背离金融体系的发展规律。金融本质上是资金中介，银行贷款是最传统的中介模式，而创新型金融产品的发展速度惊人。 1980年，银行按揭资产有80%留在表内；2008年，这一比例降至35%，其余部分大多通过证券化方式出表，而这正是以基金为主的影子银行的重要来源。2011年，金融稳定理事会提出，影子银行是“常规银行体系以外的信用中介机构和信用中介活动”，并初步估算，全球影子银行规模在2002—2007年间从27万亿美元扩张至60万亿美元。

克林顿在北京大学的英文演讲稿(精选多篇)

克林顿在北京大学的英文演讲稿(精选多篇)正文第一篇：克林顿在北京大学的英文演讲稿president clinton:thank you chairmen ren, vice president chi, vice minister wei. we are delighted to be here today with a very large american delegation, including the first lady and our daughter, who is a student at stanford, one of the schools with which beijing university has a relationship. we have six members of the united states congress; the secretary of state; secretary of commerce; the secretary of agriculture; the chairman of our council of economic advisors; senator sasser, our ambassador; the national security advisor and my chief of staff, among others. i say that to illustrate the importance that the united states places on our relationship with china.i would like to begin by congratulating all of you, the students, the faculty, the administrators, on celebrating the centennial year of your university. gongxi, beida.as i'm sure all of you know, this campus was once home to yenching university which was founded by american missionaries. many of its wonderful buildings were designed by an american architect. thousands of americans students and professors have come here to study and teach. we feel a special kinship with you.i am, however, grateful that this day is different in one important respect from another important occasion 79 years ago. in june of 1919, the first president of yenching university, john leighton stuart, was set to deliver the very first commencement address on these very grounds. at the appointed hour, he appeared, but no students appeared. they were all out leading the may 4th movement for china's political and cultural renewal. when i read this, i hoped that when i walked into the auditorium today, someone would be sitting here. and i thank you for being here, very much. over the last 100 years, this university has grown to more than 20,000 students. your graduates are spread throughout china and around the world. you have built the largest university library in all of asia. last year, 20 percent of your graduates went abroad to study, including half of your math and science majors. and in this anniversary year, more than a million people in china, asia, and beyond have logged on to your web site. at the dawn of a new century, this university is leading china into the future.i come here today to talk to you, the next generation of china's leaders, about the critical importance to your future of building a strong partnership between china and the united states.the american people deeply admire china for its thousands of years of contributions to culture and religion, to philosophy and the arts, to science and technology. we remember well our strong partnership in world war ii. now we see china at a moment in history when your glorious past is matched by your present sweeping transformation and the even greater promise of your future.just three decades ago, china was virtually shut off from the world. now, china is a member of more than 1,000 international organizations -- enterprises that affect everything from air travel to agricultural development. you have opened your nationto trade and investment on a large scale. today, 40,000 young chinese study in the united states, with hundreds of thousands more learning in asia, africa, europe, and latin america.your social and economic transformation has been even more remarkable, moving from a closed command economic system to a driving, increasingly market-based and driven economy, generating two decades of unprecedented growth, giving people greater freedom to travel within and outside china, to vote in village elections, to own a home, choose a job, attend a better school. as a result you have lifted literally hundreds of millions of people from poverty. per capita income has more than doubled in the last decade. most chinese people are leading lives they could not have imagined just 20 years ago.of course, these changes have also brought disruptions in settled patterns of life and work, and have imposed enormous strains on your environment. once every urban chinese was guaranteed employment in a state enterprise. now you must compete in a job market. once a chinese worker had only to meet the demands of a central planner in beijing. now the global economy means all must match the quality and creativity of the rest of the world. for those who lack the right training and skills and support, this new world can be daunting.in the short-term, good, hardworking people -- some, at least will find themselves unemployed. and, as all of you can see, there have been enormous environmental and economic and health care costs to the development pattern and the energy use pattern of the last 20 years -- from air pollution to deforestation to acid rain and water shortage.in the face of these challenges new systems of training and social security will have to be devised, and new environmental policies and technologies will have to be introduced with the goal of growing your economy while improving the environment. everything i know about the intelligence, the ingenuity, the enterprise of the chinese people and everything i have heard these last few days in my discussions with president jiang, prime minister zhu and others give me confidence that you will succeed.as you build a new china, america wants to build a new relationship with you. we want china to be successful, secure and open, working with us for a more peaceful and prosperous world. i know there are those in china and the united states who question whether closer relations between our countries is a good thing. but everything all of us know about the way the world is changing and the challenges your generation will face tell us that our two nations will be far better off working together than apart.the late deng xiaoping counseled us to seek truth from facts. at the dawn of the new century, the facts are clear. the distance between our two nations, indeed, between any nations, is shrinking. where once an american clipper ship took months to cross from china to the united states. today, technology has made us all virtual neighbors. from laptops to lasers, from microchips to megabytes, an information revolution is lighting the landscape of human knowledge, bringing us all closer together. ideas, information, and money cross the planet at the stroke of a computer key, bringing with themextraordinary opportunities to create wealth, to prevent and conquer disease, to foster greater understanding among peoples of different histories and different cultures.but we also know that this greater openness and faster change mean that problems which start beyond one nations borders can quickly move inside them -- the spread of weapons of mass destruction, the threats of organized crime and drug trafficking, of environmental degradation, and severe economic dislocation. no nation can isolate itself from these problems, and no nation can solve them alone. we, especially the younger generations of china and the united states, must make common cause of our common challenges, so that we can, together, shape a new century of brilliant possibilities.in the 21st century -- your century -- china and the united states will face the challenge of security in asia. on the korean peninsula, where once we were adversaries, today we are working together for a permanent peace and a future freer of nuclear weapons.on the indian subcontinent, just as most of the rest of the world is moving away from nuclear danger, india and pakistan risk sparking a new arms race. we are now pursuing a common strategy to move india and pakistan away from further testing and toward a dialogue to resolve their differences.in the 21st century, your generation must face the challenge of stopping the spread of deadlier nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons. in the wrong hands or the wrong places, these weapons can threaten the peace of nations large and small. increasingly, china and the united states agree on the importance of stopping proliferation. that is why we are beginning to act in concert to control the worlds most dangerous weapons.in the 21st century, your generation will have to reverse the international tide of crime and drugs. around the world, organized crime robs people of billions of dollars every year and undermines trust in government. america knows all about the devastation and despair that drugs can bring to schools and neighborhoods. with borders on more than a dozen countries, china has become a crossroad for smugglers of all kinds.last year, president jiang and i asked senior chinese and american law enforcement officials to step up our cooperation against these predators, to stop money from being laundered, to stop aliens from being cruelly smuggled, to stop currencies from being undermined by counterfeiting. just this month, our drug enforcement agency opened an office in beijing, and soon chinese counternarcotics experts will be working out of washington.in the 21st century, your generation must make it your mission to ensure that today's progress does not come at tomorrow's expense. china's remarkable growth in the last two decades has come with a toxic cost, pollutants that foul the water you drink and the air you breathe -- the cost is not only environmental, it is also serious in terms of the health consequences of your people and in terms of the drag on economic growth.environmental problems are also increasingly global as well as national. for example, in the near future, if present energy use patterns persist, china will overtake the united states as the world's largest emitter of greenhouse gases, the gases which are theprincipal cause of global warming. if the nations of the world do not reduce the gases which are causing global warming, sometime in the next century there is a serious risk of dramatic changes in climate which will change the way we live and the way we work, which could literally bury some island nations under mountains of water and undermine the economic and social fabric of nations.we must work together. we americans know from our own experience that it is possible to grow an economy while improving the environment. we must do that together for ourselves and for the world.building on the work that our vice president, al gore, has done previously with the chinese government, president jiang and i are working together on ways to bring american clean energy technology to help improve air quality and grow the chinese economy at the same time.today we do not seek to impose our vision on others, but we are convinced that certain rights are universal -- not american rights or european rights or rights for developed nations, but the birthrights of people everywhere, now enshrined in the united nations declaration on human rights -- the right to be treated with dignity; the right to express one's opinions, to choose one's own leaders, to associate freely with others, and to worship, or not, freely, however one chooses.in the last letter of his life, the author of our declaration of independence and our third president, thomas jefferson, said then that “all eyes are opening to the rights of man.”i believe that in this time, at long last, 172 years after jefferson wrote those words, all eyes are opening to the rights of men and women everywhere.over the past two decades, a rising tide of freedom has lifted the lives of millions around the world, sweeping away failed dictatorial systems in the former soviet union, throughout central europe; ending a vicious cycle of military coups and civil wars in latin america; giving more people in africa the chance to make the most of their hard-won independence. and from the philippines to south korea, from thailand to mongolia, freedom has reached asia's shores, powering a surge of growth and productivity.economic security also can be an essential element of freedom. it is recognized in the united nations covenant on economic, social, and cultural rights. in china, you have made extraordinary strides in nurturing that liberty, and spreading freedom from want, to be a source of strength to your people. incomes are up, poverty is down; people do have more choices of jobs, and the ability to travel -- the ability to make a better life. but true freedom includes more than economic freedom. in america, we believe it is a concept which is indivisible.over the past four days, i have seen freedom in many manifestations in china. i have seen the fresh shoots of democracy growing in the villages of your heartland. i have visited a village that chose its own leaders in free elections. i have also seen the cell phones, the video players, the fax machines carrying ideas, information and images from all over the world. i've heard people speak their minds and i have joined people in prayer in the faith of my own choosing. in all these ways i felt a steady breeze of freedom.the question is, where do we go from here? how do we work together to be on theright side of history together? more than 50 years ago, hu shi, one of your great political thinkers and a teacher at this university, said these words: “now some people say to me you must sacrifice your individual freedom so that the nation may be free. but i reply, the struggle for individual freedom is the struggle for the nation's freedom. the struggle for your own character is the struggle for the nation's character.”we americans believe hu shi was right. we believe and our experience demonstrates that freedom strengthens stability and helps nations to change.one of our founding fathers, benjamin franklin, once said, “our critics are our friends, for they show us our faults.” now, if that is true, there a re many days in the united states when the president has more friends than anyone else in america. （laughter.）but it is so.in the world we live in, this global information age, constant improvement and change is necessary to economic opportunity and to national strength. therefore, the freest possible flow of information, ideas, and opinions, and a greater respect for divergent political and religious convictions will actually breed strength and stability going forward.it is, therefore, profoundly in your interest, and the world's, that young chinese minds be free to reach the fullness of their potential. that is the message of our time and the mandate of the new century and the new millennium.i hope china will more fully embrace this mandate. for all the grandeur of your history, i believe your greatest days are still ahead. against great odds in the 20th century china has not only survived, it is moving forward dramatically.other ancient cultures failed because they failed to change. china has constantly proven the capacity to change and grow. now, you must re-imagine china again for a new century, and your generation must be at the heart of china's regeneration. the new century is upon us. all our sights are turned toward the future. now your country has known more millennia than the united states has known centuries. today, however, china is as young as any nation on earth. this new century can be the dawn of a new china, proud of your ancient greatness, proud of what you are doing, prouder still of the tomorrows to come. it can be a time when the world again looks to china for the vigor of its culture, the freshness of its thinking, the elevation of human dignity that is apparent in its works. it can be a time when the oldest of nations helps to make a new world.the united states wants to work with you to make that time a reality.thank you very much. （applause.）第二篇：美国克林顿总统在北京大学的演讲稿president clinton:thank you. thank you, president chen, chairmen ren, vice president chi, vice minister wei. we are delighted to be here today with a very large american delegation, including the first lady and our daughter, who is a student at stanford, one of the schools with which beijing university has a relationship. we have six members of the united states congress; the secretary of state; secretary of commerce; the secretary of agriculture; the chairman of our council of economic advisors; senator sasser, our ambassador; the national security advisor and my chief of staff, among others. i saythat to illustrate the importance that the united states places on our relationship with china.i would like to begin by congratulating all of you, the students, the faculty, the administrators, on celebrating the centennial year of your university. gongxi, beida. (applause.)as i’m sure all of you know, this campus was once home to yenching university which was founded by american missionaries. many of its wonderful buildings were designed by an american architect. thousands of americans students and professors have come here to study and teach. we feel a special kinship with you.i am, however, grateful that this day is different in one important respect from another important occasion 79 years ago. in june of 1919, the first president of yenching university, john leighton stuart, was set to deliver the very first commencement address on these very grounds. at the appointed hour, he appeared, but no students appeared. they were all out leading the may 4th movement for china’s political and cultural renewal. when i read this, i hoped that when i walked into the auditorium today, someone would be sitting here. and i thank you for being here, very much. (applause.)over the last 100 years, this university has grown to more than 20,000 students. your graduates are spread throughout china and around the world. you have built the largest university library in all of asia. last year, 20 percent of your graduates went abroad to study, including half of your math and science majors. and in this anniversary year, more than a million people in china, asia, and beyond have logged on to your web site. at the dawn of a new century, this university is leading china into the future.i come here today to talk to you, the next generation of china’s leaders, about the critical importance to your future of building a strong partnership between china and the united states.the american people deeply admire china for its thousands of years of contributions to culture and religion, to philosophy and the arts, to science and technology. we remember well our strong partnership in world war ii. now we see china at a moment in history when your glorious past is matched by your present sweeping transformation and the even greater promise of your future.just three decades ago, china was virtually shut off from the world. now, china is a member of more than 1,000 international organizations -- enterprises that affect everything from air travel to agricultural development. you have opened your nation to trade and investment on a large scale. today, 40,000 young chinese study in the united states, with hundreds of thousands more learning in asia, africa, europe, and latin america.your social and economic transformation has been even more remarkable, moving from a closed command economic system to a driving, increasingly market-based and driven economy, generating two decades of unprecedented growth, giving people greater freedom to travel within and outside china, to vote in village elections, to own a home, choose a job, attend a better school. as a result you have lifted literally hundreds of millions of people from poverty. per capita income has more thandoubled in the last decade. most chinese people are leading lives they could not have imagined just 20 years ago.of course, these changes have also brought disruptions in settled patterns of life and work, and have imposed enormous strains on your environment. once every urban chinese was guaranteed employment in a state enterprise. now you must compete in a job market. once a chinese worker had only to meet the demands of a central planner in beijing. now the global economy means all must match the quality and creativity of the rest of the world. for those who lack the right training and skills and support, this new world can be daunting.in the short-term, good, hardworking people -- some, at least will find themselves unemployed. and, as all of you can see, there have been enormous environmental and economic and health care costs to the development pattern and the energy use pattern of the last 20 years -- from air pollution to deforestation to acid rain and water shortage.in the face of these challenges new systems of training and social security will have to be devised, and new environmental policies and technologies will have to be introduced with the goal of growing your economy while improving the environment. everything i know about the intelligence, the ingenuity, the enterprise of the chinese people and everything i have heard these last few days in my discussions with president jiang, prime minister zhu and others give me confidence that you will succeed.as you build a new china, america wants to build a new relationship with you. we want china to be successful, secure and open, working with us for a more peaceful and prosperous world. i know there are those in china and the united states who question whether closer relations between our countries is a good thing. but everything all of us know about the way the world is changing and the challenges your generation will face tell us that our two nations will be far better off working together than apart.the late deng xiaoping counseled us to seek truth from facts. at the dawn of the new century, the facts are clear. the distance between our two nations, indeed, between any nations, is shrinking. where once an american clipper ship took months to cross from china to the united states. today, technology has made us all virtual neighbors. from laptops to lasers, from microchips to megabytes, an information revolution is lighting the landscape of human knowledge, bringing us all closer together. ideas, information, and money cross the planet at the stroke of a computer key, bringing with them extraordinary opportunities to create wealth, to prevent and conquer disease, to foster greater understanding among peoples of different histories and different cultures.but we also know that this greater openness and faster change mean that problems which start beyond one nations borders can quickly move inside them -- the spread of weapons of mass destruction, the threats of organized crime and drug trafficking, of environmental degradation, and severe economic dislocation. no nation can isolate itself from these problems, and no nation can solve them alone. we, especially the younger generations of china and the united states, must make common cause of our common challenges, so that we can, together, shape a new century of brilliantpossibilities.in the 21st century -- your century -- china and the united states will face the challenge of security in asia. on the korean peninsula, where once we were adversaries, today we are working together for a permanent peace and a future freer of nuclear weapons.on the indian subcontinent, just as most of the rest of the world is moving away from nuclear danger, india and pakistan risk sparking a new arms race. we are now pursuing a common strategy to move india and pakistan away from further testing and toward a dialogue to resolve their differences.in the 21st century, your generation must face the challenge of stopping the spread of deadlier nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons. in the wrong hands or the wrong places, these weapons can threaten the peace of nations large and small. increasingly, china and the united states agree on the importance of stopping proliferation. that is why we are beginning to act in concert to control the worlds most dangerous weapons.in the 21st century, your generation will have to reverse the international tide of crime and drugs. around the world, organized crime robs people of billions of dollars every year and undermines trust in government. america knows all about the devastation and despair that drugs can bring to schools and neighborhoods. with borders on more than a dozen countries, china has become a crossroad for smugglers of all kinds.last year, president jiang and i asked senior chinese and american law enforcement officials to step up our cooperation against these predators, to stop money from being laundered, to stop aliens from being cruelly smuggled, to stop currencies from being undermined by counterfeiting. just this month, our drug enforcement agency opened an office in beijing, and soon chinese counternarcotics experts will be working out of washington.in the 21st cent ury, your generation must make it your mission to ensure that today’s progress does not come at tomorrow’s expense. china’s remarkable growth in the last two decades has come with a toxic cost, pollutants that foul the water you drink and the air you breathe -- the cost is not only environmental, it is also serious in terms of the health consequences of your people and in terms of the drag on economic growth. environmental problems are also increasingly global as well as national. for example, in the near future, if present energy use patterns persist, china will overtake the united states as the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases, the gases which are the principal cause of global warming. if the nations of the world do not reduce the gases which are cacooperation -- in challenges from dealing with spina bifida to dealing with extreme weather conditions and earthquakes -- have proved what we can do together to change the lives of millions of people in china and the united states and around the world. expanding our cooperation in science and technology can be one of our greatest gifts to the future.in each of these vital areas that i have mentioned, we can clearly accomplish so much more by walking together rather than standing apart. that is why we should work tosee that the productive relationship we now enjoy blossoms into a fuller partnership in the new century.if that is to happen, it is very important that we understand each other better, that we understand both our common interest and our shared aspirations and our honest differences. i believe the kind of open, direct exchange that president jiang and i had on saturday at our press conference -- which i know many of you watched on television -- can both clarify and narrow our differences, and, more important, by allowing people to understand and debate and discuss these things can give a greater sense of confidence to our people that we can make a better future.from the windows of the white house, where i live in washington, d.c., the monument to our first president, george washington, dominates the skyline. it is a very tall obelisk. but very near this large monument there is a small stone which contains these words: the united states neither established titles of nobility and royalty, nor created a hereditary system. state affairs are put to the vote of public opinion.this created a new political situation, unprecedented from ancient times to the present. how wonderful it is. those words were not written by an american. they were written by xu jiyu, governor of fujian province, inscribed as a gift from the government of china to our nation in 1853.i am very grateful for that gift from china. it goes to the heart of who we are as a people -- the right to life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness, the freedom to debate, to dissent, to associate, to worship without interference from the state. these are the ideals that were at the core of our founding over 220 years ago. these are the ideas that led us across our continent and onto the world stage. these are the ideals that americans cherish today.as i said in my press conference with president jiang, we have an ongoing quest ourselves to live upeople. incomes are up, poverty is down; people do have more choices of jobs, and the ability to travel -- the ability to make a better life. but true freedom includes more than economic freedom. in america, we believe it is a concept which is indivisible.over the past four days, i have seen freedom in many manifestations in china. i have seen the fresh shoots of democracy growing in the villages of your heartland. i have visited a village that chose its own leaders in free elections. i have also seen the cell phones, the video players, the fax machines carrying ideas, information and images from all over the world. i’ve heard people speak their minds and i have joined people in prayer in the faith of my own choosing. in all these ways i felt a steady breeze of freedom.the question is, where do we go from here? how do we work together to be on the right side of history together? more than 50 years ago, hu shi, one of your great political thinkers and a teacher at this university, said these words: “now some people say to me you must sacrifice your individual freedom so that the nation may be free. but i reply, the struggle for individual freedom is the struggle for the nation’s freedom. the struggle for your own character is the struggle for the nation’s character.”we americans believe hu shi was right. we believe and our experience demonstrates that freedom strengthens stability and helps nations to change.。

中国第一出口大国是喜是忧

中国:第一出口大国是喜是忧作者：胡珊来源：《经济》2010年第05期世界贸易组织3月26日证实,中国在2009年已经超越德国成为世界第一大商品出口国,约占全世界出口额的10%。

中国出口在2004年赶上日本,2007年超过美国,2009年把连续6年坐拥世界“第一出口大国”宝座的德国拉下马来,飞速实现了三级跳。

“第一出口大国”的名号,对中国来讲是喜是忧?“第一出口大国”一直是我们长期努力的目标,梦想变成现实,对正处于危机后恢复与发展中的中国外贸甚至中国经济,都是一件鼓舞人心的好事。

可这个称号的背后仍有许多值得我们去深层次思考的东西。

首先,“第一出口大国”的宝座能否坐稳尚不得知。

实际上,2009年是中国外贸最为困难的一年,外贸进出口大幅下挫。

据中国海关统计,2009年中国对外贸易进出口总值为22072.7亿美元,同比下降13.9%。

其中,出口12016.7亿美元,下降16%;进口10056亿美元,下降11.2%。

全年贸易顺差1960.7亿美元,减少34.2%,降幅创改革开放以来的最高纪录。

如此情况下还能成为第一出口大国,很大程度上要归结为金融危机的影响。

金融危机严重打击了世界贸易,据世界贸易组织表示,全球贸易量在2009年减少了12.2%,是70年来下滑幅度最大的一次。

高度依赖世界市场的中国外贸自然深受影响,但由于中国宏观经济的相对稳定性和政府一系列大力度的稳定外需政策,扭转了外贸下降趋势,仍然做到了“保市场、保份额”。

而德国2009年经历了自“二战”以来最严重的衰退,作为欧洲最大的经济体,德国经济在2009年紧缩了5%,出口更是遭遇了金融危机的严重冲击,并且复苏缓慢。

虽然按照中国前些年的贸易发展速度,成为第一出口大国只是时间长短的问题,但能在2009年做到这一步,不得不归结于金融危机对德国的影响比中国更严重。

随着全球经济的逐渐恢复,以及国际市场的复杂多变性,今年、明年出口第一的国家还无法预测。

中国商务部新闻发言人姚坚在世界贸易组织数据出来前就表示,中国的出口在2009年相比德国来说,是可能会超出一些,但這仅仅是一年的数字,随着2010、2011年全球经济逐步恢复景气后,这些数据也许还会有反复,现在都不能确定。

郑启五精短随笔：您好,盖特纳

您好，盖特纳先生美国财政部长盖特纳于2009年6月1日在北京大学发表了演讲，谈到了美中合作对全球经济复苏和增长的重要性。

他在演讲中首先“自报家门”：“我第一次来到中国和北京大学是在1981年的夏天，那时，我还是一名学习普通话的大学生。

我与一些来自美国的研究生和本科生在这里。

次年夏天，我又回到了北京师范大学。

我们学习相当努力，并有幸与许多优秀教授一起工作，他们中的一些人今天也在这里。

我们走遍这座城市并在中国的华东地区旅行，我们不仅有机会了解你们的历史和你们的抱负，还开始通过你们的眼睛看美国……”这样的开场白是亲和与自然的，并迅速拉近了台上的演讲者与台下听众的距离。

当一位中国老师把一幅当年她与学生盖特纳的合影作为礼物送给部长先生本人时，不但盖某惊喜不已，也让全场听众兴致勃勃地欣赏到盖特纳当年作为一个学习汉语的老美大男孩的腼腆。

盖特纳在北京大学的演讲是全英文的，我们不大可能指望他当年在北京几个星期的汉语学习，就掌握了这门东方的语言，我猜测他的语言天赋或在汉语学习上下的功夫在很大程度上不如澳大利亚的总理陆克文先生，我怀疑他目前很可能已经把他当年所学的方块字忘得八九不离十了，正如不少学习汉语后来又打退堂鼓的外国学生，也正如不少学习英语后来把英语又基本都还给老师的中国人一样。

很清楚,我们不可能因为部长先生当年的这段经历就指望他在美中的财政谈判中对美国的利益有丝毫的放弃和影响,但我们也希望并相信他的这段经历对减少美国人对华有色眼镜的度数,对理性和客观公正地看待中美两国的贸易摩擦,并由此而积极寻求符合两国利益的途径和办法有所助益。

如果我是中国的财政部长，我也要让盖特纳先生明白，中国的每一个美元的外汇储备，中国在美国每一块美元的资产，全部都是勤劳的中国人用30年打拼的血汗换来的！语言从来就不仅仅是单纯的语言，它是现实和心灵双向沟通的桥梁，所以如果我见到盖特纳，我一定要用汉语普通话微笑地对他招呼道：“您好，盖特纳先生！”。

美国财政部长盖特纳北京大学演讲中英文全文

美国财政部长盖特纳北京大学演讲中英文全文The United States and China, Cooperating for Recovery and GrowthThe United States and China, Cooperating for Recovery and GrowthTreasury Secretary Timothy F. GeithnerSpeech at Peking University - Beijing, ChinaIt is a pleasure to be back in China and to join you here today at this great university.I first came to China, and to Peking University, in the summer of 1981 as a college student studying Mandarin. I was here with a small group of graduate and undergraduate students from across the United States.I returned the next summer to Beijing Normal Univ ersity.We studied reasonably hard, and had the privilege of working with many talented professors, some of whom are here today. As we explored this city and traveled through Eastern China, we had the chance not just tounderstand more about your history and your aspirations, but also to begin to see the United States through your eyes.Over the decades since, we have seen the beginnings of one of the most extraordinary economic transformations in history. China is thriving. Economic reform has brought exceptionally rapid and sustained growth in incomes. China¡¯s emergence as a major economic force more fully integrated into the world economy has brought substantial benefits to the United States and to economies around the wor ld.In recognition of our mutual interest in a positive, cooperative, and comprehensive relationship, President Hu Jintao and President Obama agreed in April to establish the Strategic and Economic Dialogue. Secretary Clinton and I will host Vice Premier Wang and State Councilor Dai in Washington this summer for our first meeting. I have the privilege of beginning the economic discussions with a series of meetings in Beijing today and tomorrow.These meetings will give us a chance to discussthe risks and challenges on the economic front, to examine some of the longer term challenges we both face in laying the foundation for a more balanced and sustainable recovery, and to explore our common interest in international financial reform.Current Challenges and RisksThe world economy is going through the most challenging economic and financial stress in generations.The International Monetary Fund predicts that the world economy will shrink this year for the first time in more than six decades. The collapse of world trade is likely to be the worst since the end of World War II. The lost output, compared to the world economys potential growth in a normal year, could be between three and four trillion dollars.In the face of this challenge, China and the United States are working together to help shape a strong global strategy to contain the crisis and to lay the foundation for recovery. And these efforts, the combined effect of forceful policy actions here inChina, in the United States, and in other major economies, have helped slow the pace of deteriorat ion in growth, repair the financial system, and improve confidence.& nbsp;In fact, what distinguishes the current crisis is not just its global scale and its acute severity, but the size and speed of the global response.At the G-20 Leaders meeting in London in April, we agreed on an unprecedented program of coordinated policy actions to support growth, to stabilize and repair the financial system, to restore the flow of credit essential for trade and investment, to mobilize financial resources for emerging market economies through the international financial institutions, and to keep markets open for trade and investment.That historic accord on a strategy for recovery was made possible in part by the policy actions already begun in China and the United States.China moved quickly as the crisis intensified with a very forceful program of investments and financial measures to strengthen domestic demand.In the United States, in the first weeks of the new Administration, we put in place a comprehensive program of tax incentives and investments ¨C the largest peace time recovery effort since World War II - to help arrest the sharp fall in private demand. Alongside these fiscal measures, we acted to ease the housing crisis. And we have put in place a series of initiatives to bring more capital into the banking system and to restart the credit markets.These actions have been reinforced by similar actions in countries around the world.In contrast to the global crisis of the 1930s and to the major economic crises of the postwar period, the leaders of the world acted together. They acted quickly. They took steps to provide assistance to the most vulnerable economies, even as they faced exceptional financial needs at home. They worked to keep their markets open, rather than r etreating into self-defeating measures of discrimination and protect ion.And they have committed to make sure this programof initiatives is sustained until the foundation for recovery is firmly established, a commitment the IMF will monitor closely, and that we will be able to uate together when the G-20 Leaders meet again in the United States this fall.We are starting to see some initial signs of improvement. The global recession seems to be losing force. In the United States, the pace of decline in economic activity has slowed. Households are saving more, but consumer confidence has improved, and spending is starting to recover. House prices are falling at a slower pace and the inventory of unsold homes has come down significantly. Orders for goods and services are somewhat stronger. The pace of deterioration in the labor market has slowed, and new claims for unemployment insurance have started to come down a bit.&nb sp;The financial system is starting to heal. The clarity and disclosure provided by our capital assessment of major banks has helped improve market confidence in them, making it possible for banks thatneeded capital to raise it from private investors and to borrow without guarantees. The securities markets, including the asset backed securities markets that essentially stopped functioning late last year, have started to come back. The cost of credit has fallen substantially for businesses and for families as spreads and risk premia have narrowed.These are important signs of stability, and assurance that we will succeed in averting financial collapse and global deflation, but they represent only the first steps in laying the foundation for recovery. The process of repair and adjustment is going to take time. ;China, despite your own manifest challenges a s a developing country, you are in an enviably strong position. But in most economies, the recession is still powerful and dangerous. Business and households in the United States, as in many countries, are still experiencing the most challenging economic and financial pressures in decades.The plant closures, and company restructuringsthat the recession is causing are painful, and this process is not yet over. The fallout from these events has been brutally indiscriminant, affecting those with little or no responsibility for the events that now buffet them, as well as on some who played key roles in bringing about our troubles.The extent of the damage to financial systems entails significant risk that the supply of credit will be constrained for some time. The constraints on banks in many major economies will make it hard for them to compensate fully for the damage done to the basic machi nery of the securitization markets, including the loss of confidence in credit ratings. After a long period where financial institutions took on too much risk, we still face the possibility that banks and investors may take too little risk, even as the underlying economic conditions start to improve.And, after a long period of falling saving and substantial growth in household borrowing relative to GDP, consumer spending in the United States will be restrained for some time relative to what is typicallythe case in recoveries.These are necessary adjustments. They will entail a longer, slower process of recovery, with a very different pattern of future growth across countries than we have seen in the past several recoveries.Laying the Foundation for Future GrowthAs we address this immediate financial and economic crisis, it is important that we also lay the foundations for more balanced, sustained growth of the global economy once this recovery is firmly established.A successful transition to a more balanced and stable global economy will require very substantial changes to economic policy and financial regulation around the world. But some of the most important of those changes will have to come in the United States and China. How successful we are in Washington and Beijing will be critically important to the economic fortunes of the rest of the world. The effectiveness of policies will depend in part on Chinas, and the effectiveness of yours on ours.Although the United States and China start from very different positions, many of our domestic challenges are similar. In the United States, we are working to reform our health care system, to improve the quality of education, to rebuild our infrastructure, and to improve energy efficiency. These reforms are essential to boosting the productive capacity of our economy. These challenges are at the center of your reform priorities, too.We are both working to reform our financial systems. In the United States, our challenge is to create a more stable and more resilient financial system, with stronger protections for consumer and investors. As we work to strengthen and redesign regulation to achieve these objectives, our challenge is to preserve the core strengths of our financial system, which are its exceptional capacity to adapt and innovate and to channel capital for investment in new technologies and innovative companies. You have the benefit of being able to learn from our shortcomings, which have proved so damaging in the present crisis, as well as f rom our strengths.Our common chall enge is to recognize that a more balanced and sustainable global recovery will require changes in the composition of growth in our two economies. Because of this, our policies have to be directed at very different outcomes.In the United States, saving rates will have to increase, and the purchases of consumers cannot be as dominant a driver of growth as they have been in the past.In China, as your leadership has recognized, growth that is sustainable growth will require a very substantial shift from external to domestic demand, from an investment and export intensive driven growth, to growth led by consumption. Strengthening domestic demand will also strengthen Chinas ability to weather fluctuations in global supply and demand.If we are successful on these respective paths, public and private saving in the United States will increase as recovery strengthens, and as this happens, our current account deficit will come down. And in China, domestic demand will rise at a faster rate than overallGDP, led by a gradual shift to higher rates of consumption.Globally, recovery will have come more from a shift by high saving economies to stronger domestic demand and less from the American consumer.The policy framework for a successful transition to this outcome is starting to take shape.In the United States, we are putting in place the foundations for restoring fiscal sustainability.The President in his initial budget to Congress made it clear that, as soon as recovery is firmly established, we are going to have to bring our fiscal deficit down to a level that is sustainable over the medium term. This will mean bringing the imbalance between our fiscal resources and expenditures down to the point - roughly three percent of GDP -- wh ere the overall level of public debt to GDP is definitively on a dow nward path. The temporary investments and tax incentives we put in place in the Recovery Act to strengthen private demand will have to expire, discretionary spending will have to fall back to a moremodest level relative to GDP, and we will have to be very disciplined in limiting future commitments through the reintroduction of budget disciplines, such as pay-as-you go rules.The President also looks forward to working with Congress to further reduce our long-run fiscal deficit.And, critical to our long-term fiscal health, we have to put in place comprehensive health care reform that will bring down the growth in health care costs, costs that are the principal driver of our long run fiscal deficit.The President has also proposed steps to encourage private saving, including through automatic enrollment in retirement savings accounts.。

《新闻联播》文字版(速录)

男主播：各位观众晚上好！女主播：晚上好！男主播：今天是9月17号星期五，农历八月初十，欢迎收看《新闻联播》节目。

女主播：首先向您介绍这次节目的主要内容：胡锦涛为瑞士“文化风景线艺术节〃中国主宾国”活动致贺信。

温家宝同澳大利亚总理吉拉德通电话。

宁夏中卫市新思路治沙——种果树增收入。

冷空气给我国北方地区带来大范围降温降雨。

菲律宾调查委员会递交中国香港人质事件调查报告。

以下是详细报道：男主播：本台消息：国家主席胡锦涛16号致信祝贺“文化风景线艺术节〃中国主宾国”活动在瑞士举办。

贺信说，在中国同瑞士建交60周年之际，欣悉“文化风景线艺术节〃中国主宾国”活动即将在瑞士举办。

我谨代表中国政府，并以我个人名义对这次活动表示热烈的祝贺。

瑞士是最早承认中华人民共和国并同新中国建立外交关系的西欧国家之一。

建交60年来，两国关系全面发展，经济、科技合作成果丰硕，人文交流日趋活跃，人民友谊不断加深。

中国人民珍视同瑞士的长期友谊，中方愿同瑞方一道，在平等互利的基础上，深化政治、经贸、科技、文化等各领域交流合作，携手为推动建设持久、和平、共同繁荣的和谐世界做出努力。

文化创造是人类文明进步的重要成果，文化交流是推动人类文明进步的重要力量，这次“文化风景线艺术节〃中国主宾国”活动是两国建交以来最大规模的文化交流活动，将以音乐、戏剧、建筑、舞蹈、文学、电影等多种形式向瑞士人民介绍历史悠久的中国传统文化和丰富多彩的中国当代艺术。

这次活动也将为中国人民深入了解瑞士人民创造的独特文化提供重要契机。

我衷心希望这次活动为促进中瑞两国文化交流、增进两国人民相互了解和友谊做出积极贡献。

祝“文化风景线艺术节〃中国主宾国”活动取得圆满成功！女主播：本台消息：国务院总理温家宝今天应约同澳大利亚总理吉拉德通电话。

温家宝祝贺吉拉德就任澳大利亚新一届政府总理。

温家宝说，中澳关系发展势头良好，两国经贸合作经受住了国际金融危机冲击，变得更加紧密和富有活力，双方在维护地区和平稳定、促进可持续发展方面有着广泛的共同利益。

美国债务问题

美国债务问题摘要：08年金融危机以来，全球最大经济体——美国为了刺激经济发展，采取了扩张的财政政策，大幅增加赤字。

其债务规模呈现滚雪球般的增长。

2011年8月5日，国际评级机构标普将美国长期主权信用评级由“AAA”降至“AA+”，评级展望为负面。

并且从奥巴马政府上任以来，国会两党经常就债务上限问题争执不下。

由于美国和美元在国际市场中的特殊地位，美国的债务问题在极大程度上会影响国际金融体系的稳定性。

本文将从美债问题产生的原因和现状，解决措施和未来的展望以及中国的对策三个方面分析美国的债务问题。

关键字：债务上限国际结算货币财政赤字汇率目录1 美债问题产生原因和现状 (2)1．1表面原因：共和党和民主党的债务上限之争 (2)1.1.1美国债务上限设置的历史和现状 (2)1.1.2 民主共和两党的政治博弈 (3)1.2 债务危机爆发的深层原因 (3)1.2.1美国的经济结构问题和消费模式 (3)1.2.2长期以来高赤字的扩张性的财政政策 (4)1.2.3以美元为主的国际货币体系 (4)1.2.4美国国债持有者的结构变化 (5)1.2.5宽松的货币政策 (5)2 美债问题的解决措施 (5)3 美债问题对中国的影响与对策 (6)3.1美国债务问题对中国的直接影响 (6)我国持有的巨额外汇储备购买力下降 (6)加大输入型通胀压力，增加我国宏观调控难度 (6)增加中国向欧美出口的难度，抑制实体经济的增长 (6)4中国的外贸和外汇储备 (6)4.1中国为何不能贸然持有美国国债 (7)4.2对中国的建议 (8)致谢 (8)参考文献 (8)1 美债问题产生原因和现状1．1表面原因：共和党和民主党的债务上限之争1.1.1美国债务上限设置的历史和现状美国从法律上确定债务上限始于1917年。

在此之前，美国政府每当需要借款时，都要向国会一事一报，在获得国会批准和授权后，方能实施筹融资计划。

这一原则是对当届政府或将出现过度透支，而对下届政府不负责任行为的限制。

中美贸易关系必须顺利发展

来看，亚洲各国开始真正意识到扩大内需的重要性这一点则更有意义。内需扩大的关键应该是培养出一个面向低收入阶层的消费市场。虽然大多数时
候富裕阶层受到更多的关注，但他们的人数是有限的。超过３亿的亚洲人口的大多０
数都属于低收入阶层。阶段，现能否扩大尚未成为市场主攻目标的低收入阶层的消费将是关键。
对着扩音器讲话，出一阵口头攻击并谋取优势也是有用的。可以认为，国候任发美
财政部长盖特纳上周就是这样做的。他指责中国操纵人民币币值。我们已经有一阵子没有听到这么有力的指控了，尽管这样的指控一直在华盛顿流传。盖特纳被确认为美国财政部长的事还不确定，认为有必要在给美国参议员的他书面答复中，就美中贸易问题阐明奥巴马新政府听上去更加强硬的立场。出所料，不这已引起了有关保护主义上升和两国贸易战迫在眉睫的严重警告。经但是，的讲他话可以从比较积极的角度来解读。预计本周得到任职确认的盖特纳是在奥巴马政府上台仅仅两天之际对中国提出批评的。这表明，美国新总统极为重视美中贸易关系，
联合国粮农组织预测今年全球粮食减产
联合国粮农组织１日２发表最新一期《作物要原因。在很多发展中国家，粮食价格将保持前景与粮食形势》报告，指出２０年世界粮食高水平，这将影响到低收入群体的生活。０９
产量将￣２０年有所下降，０８但未明确预测降幅。联合国粮农组织指出，全世界３个国家２报告称，由于出口利润骤减，今年的粮食和地区存在粮食危机。特别是东部非洲，受战种植面积将有所减少，特别是在欧洲和美国。争和自然条件的影响，该地区有１０万人面临８０

希拉里中美战略第二次对话演讲(中英文对照)

5月24日，第二轮美中战略与经济对话在北京开幕，美国总统奥巴马的特别代表、国务卿希拉里·克林顿出席开幕式并讲话。

在讲话中，希拉里引用了中国成语“殊途同归”（treading different paths that lead to the same destination）来形容美中两国所共有的未来。

以下是希拉里讲话全文的中英文对照。

SECRETARY CLINTON: Good morning. I want to thank State Councilor Dai and Vice-Premier Wang for their very warm hospitality. It is a pleasure for our entire delegation to be here in Beijing. And it is an honor to join my colleague, Secretary Geithner, and the many officials from across our government in representing the United States at this second round of the strategic and economic dialogue.国务卿克林顿：早上好。

感谢国务委员戴秉国和副总理王岐山非常热情的接待。

我国代表团的全体成员十分高兴来到北京。

我与我的同事盖特纳（Geithner）部长及我国政府各部门的众多官员一起代表美国出席第二轮美中战略与经济对话，为此感到十分荣幸。

I first visited China in 1995, and I have been privileged to return since then. Every trip to China offers fresh insights and images of the dynamism of this country and its people, the pace of change, and the possibilities for the future. Back in 1995, trade between our two nations was measured in the tens of billions of dollars. Today it is counted in the hundreds of billions. Few people back then had cell phones, and almost no one had access to the Internet. Today China has the world’s largest mobile phone network, and more Internet users than any other country on earth.我于1995年初次访问中国，此后又很荣幸地多次前来访问。

人民币汇率的影响因素——文献综述

前言本人毕业设计的论题是《后危机时代人民币汇率波动的影响因素分析》。

早前有些国内外学者对人民币汇率波动的影响因素进行了规划分析，但如今经济已经步入了“后危机时代”，国际贸易保护主义风险加剧，其波动情况值得关注，并且在美联储启动二次量化宽松政策和各国竞相压低本国汇率的外部情况下，中国人民币汇率问题再次被推到了漩涡中心。

因此基于“后危机时代”这个大背景，本文的论述对今后把握人民币汇率的波动情况具有一定的指导意义。

本文根据早前国内外学者对人民币汇率的研究成果，借鉴他们的成功经验，大胆地将人民币汇率的波动情况置于“后危机时代”背景下来进行研究，对当前理论界和学术界的各种观点进行了全面梳理。

本文主要查阅了近几年有关人民币汇率、汇率决定理论及人民币汇率理论的文献期刊。

1 后危机时代1.1后危机时代的概念所谓后危机时代（后金融危机时代），就是指随着危机的缓和，而而进入相对平稳期。

但是由于固有的危机并没有，或是不可能完全解决，而使世界经济等方面仍存在这很多的不确定性和不稳定性。

是缓和与未知的动荡并存的状态。

2009年下半年以来，在全球大规模的经济政策刺激下，世界经济逐渐走出衰退，开始缓慢复苏。

主要世界组织和预测机构对世界经济的发展趋于乐观，连续几次上调预测结果。

国际货币基金组织于2010年1月26日公布的《世界经济展望》中预测2010年全球经济增长3,9%，高于该组织2009年10月预计的3.1%；预计2011年全球经济会继续加速增长，预计增幅，预计增幅为4.3%，也高于上次预计的4.2%。

其中，2010年美国增长2.7%，欧元区增长1.0%，日本增长1.7%。

在金砖四国中，中国增长10.0%，印度增长7.7%，巴西增长4.7%，俄罗斯增长4.0%。

全球经济正在进入好于预期的复苏期，不同发展水平的国家表现出不同的经济增长速度。

预计未来几年，发达国家经济将保持平稳低速增长，发展中国家将保持平稳较快增长。

国际货币基金组织（IMF）预测报告中显示，2010年发达国家和发展中国家经济增长2.1%和6.0%，2011年增速将达到2.4%和6.3%。

专访美国财政部长盖特纳

专访美国财政部长盖特纳作者:ＭｉｒｉａｍＦｉｓｈｅｒ本期人物:蒂莫西·盖特纳(Timothy Franz Geithner),美国经济学家,现任美国财政部长。

1961年出生于纽约布鲁克林,曾先后就读于美国达特茅斯学院和约翰斯·霍普金斯大学,并学习过中文和日语。

1988年进入美国财政部工作;1995~2001年,历任财政部助理部长帮办、助理部长高级帮办、助理部长和负责国际事务的副部长。

此后曾在美国外交学会和国际货币基金组织任职,被奥巴马任命为财政部长前担任纽约联邦储备银行行长一职。

上任之前,盖特纳深度参与了美国政府化解金融危机的各项工作。

Geithner’s Promises盖特纳的承诺Shui: Mr. Secretary, welcome to China.Geithner: Thank you for having me.Shui: I noted that yesterday you were in Peking University to give the speech and the headline. Afterwards,all the media, including Chinese and foreign media, are quoting you as saying that the Chinese investments in the United States are safe. Can you elaborate a little bit? Because in front of the television, hundreds of thousands of Chinese audience are also eager to know and they also have some kind of concern. So I would like to invite you to elaborate a little bit—tell them that it is safe, one hundred percent.Geithner: It is a very important issue. Let me just begin, though, by saying that we are, as your government is, doing exceptional things to try to bring growth back on track, to try to make sure that we have a strong financial system both in the United States and around the world. So we are doing exceptional things to try to address this global crisis. That has required temporary increases in our deficits and some exceptional actions to help stabilize the financial system, restore the growth of credit. Those are necessary steps, similar to what your government is doing here to try to make sure growth is strong and sustainable for the future. But we are very committed to make sure that when recovery is established, we go back to living within our means, that we bring our fiscal deficits down to a sustainable level, that we unwind1) and reverse these exceptional measures we’ve taken in the financial sector. We have a strong independent central bank which is committed to keep inflation low and stable over time. We’re committed to a strong dollar. We have the deepest, most l iquid2) treasury market in the world, and we will do everything we can and everything that is necessary to try to make sure we’re sustaining confidence in U.S. financial markets, financial assets, not just in the United States but around the world. I’ve ac tually found a lot of confidence here in China, justifiable confidence in the strength and resilience and dynamism of the American economy.China-U.S. Strategic and Economic Dialogue中美战略经济对话Shui: As Treasury Secretary, this is your first visit to China, and this is also a very important trip of ahigh-ranking official from the Obama administration. We know that actually trade issue is not the only issue that you’re going to discuss with our leaders. The other issue, which is very important, i s the so-called China-U.S. strategic and economic dialogue. People say that you’re going to restart or restructure it. Tell us a little bit about how you are going to restructure this dialogue, or what the new initiative you’re going to introduce is.Ge ithner: Let me focus on two things. First, we’re going to elevate3) the importance of the strategic part ofthe dialogue to make sure that alongside a very strong set of interactions on the economic side, we have an equally strong set of interactions on th e political strategic side. So that’s one side that we’re making. We’re going to try to have these run together on a coordinated basis, so we’re looking across all the issues of importance to both our economies. On the economic side, I would just highlight a few important things. First, of course, we want this global economy to get back to a growth path. We need to act very forcefully, working with other countries to address the immediate crisis. We want to make sure that as we come out of this crisis, we have a stronger, more balanced, sustainable foundation for growth globally, less dependent on the U.S. consumer, frankly, and more reliant on stronger domestic-demand-led growth, not just in China, but in countries around the world. Third thing, what I’d li ke to just focus on is that we want to work very closely with China and other major economies to strengthen the international financial architecture, to reduce the risk of future financial crises, and to put in place stronger standards enforced more evenly on risk-taking in the financial markets. We want to strengthen the international financial institutions, give China a greater role in those institutions, and reform them to make them more effective.Shui: It sounds to me that actually you are setting a kind of a little bit different tone compared with previous administrations, because for quite some years people are saying that China’s rise, or China’s development, rapid growth is kind of a threat. And you sounded, to me at least, it’s not kind of an issue for you to concern.Geithner: I agree. I think China’s success will be good for the United States, good for the rest of the world. It is true that China’s emergence, China’s rapid growth, has been challenging to many countries around the world.I t’s been enormously consequential4) in its impact on countries around the world. But on balance, China’s growth is good for the world economy, good for the United States, and we have a strong compelling interest in the success of your reform efforts.Stimulus Package5)详解财政刺激方案Shui: I heard that actually you have some kind of suggestions for China, in fighting against this financial crisis, combined with China’s stimulus package, about five hundred billion U.S. dollars, and China is encouragin g a kind of domestic consumption. What is your suggestion for China to fight against this crisis? Because, as you say, challenges are lying ahead, and we have to be prepared.Geithner: Well, I think that the leadership of China has laid out a very ambitious program of reforms to strengthen the healthcare system, strengthen the safety net, reform the financial system, allow market prices to operate more fully across the economy, and reinforce a transition towards more domestic-demand-led growth in the future, less heavy investment-intensive, less export-intensive growth. That overall orientation we think is not just in the interest of6) China but in the interest of the world economy as well. It’s very important to us—the process will take time, but it’s ve ry important to us that China continue and succeed on that basic path, because as I said, in the United States private savings and public savings are going to have to increase. The world is going to be less able to rely on strong consumption domestically in the United States and outside the United States. Not just in China but outside the United States, we seem to see a shift towards more domestic-demand-led growth. But as I said, I think that the leadership of China has laid out a very impressive, a very ambitious set of reforms on that front, and your success will be our reward.Shui: What is the effect so far about your government’s stimulus package, about eight hundred billion? That’s huge. Is it big enough?Geithner: Well, it’s a very powerful pac kage of tax measures and investments, largest in peacetime, and it is starting to help stabilize the declining growth and what we just talked about, which is the beginning of stabilization.Foundation for recovery is in part due to the forcefulness of that stimulus program, and is in part due to the actions that we’ve taken to help stabilize the financial system and improve credit markets. So you’ve seen the cost of credit start to come down; you’ve seen more confidence in the financial system alongside thi s very powerful program of tax cuts, and support for infrastructure, support for states and local governments. And those things are working together as they were designed to.Shui: And I do believe that you have future and further steps.Geithner: Yes, the program was designed to provide substantial stimulus over a two-year period of time, two years, but I want to emphasize this—once recovery is established, those exceptional, temporary actions will expire, and we’ll begin to bring our deficits down to the point where, again, we’re living within our means.Shui: Allow me to ask you, if I may, can you give us a personal assessment? When are we going to see the end of this crisis? When are we going to see a very blue sky?Geithner: You know, I think it depends on what we do, not just in the United States but in China and countries around the world. It depends on the quality and the force of the policy measures we’re putting in place to improve confidence. So again, we’ve seen some initial signs, some encouraging signs of positive impact from those policies. That’s, I think, a significant reason why confidence is starting to improve, but I would just say it depends on the continued ability and willingness of our government and your government and other countries to reinforce these early signs of improvement.A China Expert中国通Shui: You spent quite some time, even in childhood, in China, and people call you a China expert in the Obama administration. Yesterday you showed your relationship with China in Peking University. Maybe my audience will ask you, “Do you still speak some Chinese?”Geithner: I speak very little Chinese, but I was enormously fortunate to be able to study in China twice. I studied Chinese for six years in college and graduate school. I actually taught Chinese as an assistant teacher for three years.Shui: Really?Geithner: Well, my Chinese is not good, but I was lucky early on to have some very good professors, and that had an enormous effect on me— just to c ome here early in China’s transformation.Shui: You are the expert, and I guess you are the expert to tell the world, and also to tell your fellow countrymen in the United States how big the change is.Geithner: Yes, it’s a remarkable amount of chang e, and China is clearly thriving, enormously important transformation, but I just want to give you something that I still remember.Shui: Sure.Geithner: I remember being here as a student traveling around China. I remember walking once in a market in Beijing, and one of your countrymen came up to me and said, “Are you American?” And I said, “Yes.” And he said, “I’m so glad. You know, you Americans, you’re like us. You’re open, candid, direct and confident, like the Chinese.”Shui: Ah!Geithner: I still basically remember that, and it’s a good basis for a relationship between our two countries.Shui: Exactly.1. unwind [7Qn5waInd] vt. 展开2. liquid [5lIkwId] adj. 流动的,易变为现金的3. elevate [5elIveIt] vt. 提高,提升4. consequential [7kCnsI5kwenFEl] adj. 作为后果、结果或结局随之发生的5. stimulus package:一揽子刺激计划,财政刺激方案6. in the interest of:为了……的利益。

纪录片《华尔街》解说词(三)两条道路

纪录片《华尔街》解说词（三）两条道路“我们现在所理解的华尔街始于18世纪90年代，签署了《梧桐树协议》，在一棵梧桐树下，华尔街63号，19世纪60年代，树倒了。

”（美国金融史学家约翰·戈登）华尔街的尽头是三一教堂，教堂后面有一片墓地，一个叫亚历山大·汉密尔顿的人选择了长眠于此。

“汉密尔顿说，妥善管理的国家债务将是对国家的恩赐。

在18世纪，这是很奇怪的想法，大多数人觉得，债务是件坏事，这说明了汉密尔顿有多时髦。

他知道，这对美国的未来是一大优势。

”（纽约大学金融史学教授理查德·希勒）200多年来，汉密尔顿是这条街道上永远的路标，指引着华尔街抵达了今天。

第三集两条道路（肯塔基州农场主）汉·丹姆：开饭喽。

好了，你准备好吃早饭了吗。

来吃吧，宝贝。

67岁的丹姆一直生活在中部的肯塔基州，并且拥有着属于自己的养殖场。

（肯塔基州农场主）汉·丹姆：宝贝，你在喝你妈妈的奶吗。

许多美国人和他们的移民祖先一样把这种贴近土地、朴素而勤恳的生活作为一种精神寄托，一直携带到今天。

今天的美国，绝大部分的土地依然保持着这样的面貌。

（美国纽约中央火车站）纽约的清晨有着完全不一样的生活。

“每次来这，我都觉得备受恩典，这里给了我伟大的职业，给了我一生够用的财产。

我无法想像离开华尔街，我真的祈祷能生于此，死于此。

”（华德国际集团总经理艾伦·瓦尔德斯）艾伦今年51岁，在纽交所已经工作了33年，自2008年以来，艾伦和华尔街上的人遭遇了尴尬和质疑。

“很不幸，金融业的一些人对目前的形势存在误读。

对于雷曼兄弟、复苏中的危机，他们没有吸取教训，他们不仅是拿自己在冒险，还有我们的国家。

”（美国第44任总统贝拉克·奥巴马）“你不能指着一个方面说华尔街造成了危机。

国会、监管者可能都参与了。

国会可能推动政府机构帮助穷人买房子。

”（纽约大学金融史学家教授理查德·希勒）“如果每个人都投资，却没有人失败，整个体系就无法运转。

美国财政部长盖特纳北京大学演讲中英文全文

大滞胀理论：谨防“中国式滞胀陷阱”

大滞胀理论:谨防“中国式滞胀陷阱”周建元内容提要:我国经济可能面临独特的“中国式滞胀陷阱”。

该陷阱的主要特点是:实体经济中长期停滞不前,虚拟经济不断泡沫化并带动价格全面上涨。

与欧美式滞胀相比,中国式滞胀尤其复杂,主要是由于我国经济收缩和资产泡沫化带来的通胀都具有内生性。

培育新的经济增长点以延缓经济下滑的冲击,防止我国房地产等资产泡沫的形成及在我国资产泡沫破裂中保护商业银行,是今后我国宏观调控的关键所在。

关键词:中国式滞胀陷阱　欧美式滞胀　经济引擎衰歇　内生性通胀进入今年下半年以后,我国出现了明显的通货膨胀迹象,经济增长速度也开始从高点回落。

GDP 的分季度增长情况是,一季度增长11.9%,二季度增长10.3%,三季度增长9.6%;CPI则有逐月走高的趋势,2010年10月份的CPI达到了4.4%。

中国人民银行决定,自2010年10月20日起上调金融机构人民币存贷款基准利率。

我国通胀的迹象已经比较明显,而这一趋势是否能得到遏制以及我国该如何保持经济的稳定发展,已经引起了各界的广泛关注。

更为值得注意的是,今后10年乃至20年我国经济将如何发展。

本文基于我国中长期经济发展的角度,认为我国经济有可能出现滞胀的局面,这是由我国经济的基本面所决定的。

只有未雨绸缪,采取有效措施,才能化解滞胀,并推动我国经济保持中长期又快又好地发展。

一、经济引擎出现衰竭征兆:我国实体经济将中长期下行 2000年以来,伴随着我国经济的工业化、城镇化、信息化,我国经济出现了一轮迅猛发展。

2010年我国GDP的总量实际上已经超越日本,居世界第二位。

但是,事物是相互转化的,我国实体经济的三大引擎目前都出现了功能衰竭征兆,如果不培育好新的战略性经济增长点,我国实体经济中长期下滑趋势将难以避免。

1.要素成本低廉优势急剧削弱导致外需下降。

引进外资是我国经济的一个重要动力。

2009年我国国家外汇储备23992亿美元,我国经济的外贸依存度为38.5%,进出口总额为22072亿美元,均居世界第一;全年加工贸易占55%,外资企业全年实现利润占我国规模以上企业利润的29%。

美国财政部长盖特纳在中美战略与经济对话闭幕式上的讲话

Strategic and Economic Dialogue Closing StatementTreasury Secretary Tim GeithnerBeijing, ChinaMay 25, 2010在战略与经济对话闭幕式上的讲话美国财政部长盖特纳中国北京2010年5月25日I would like to begin by offering my appreciation to our Chinese hosts for their gracious hospitality.我首先感谢我们中国东道主的盛情款待。

Our economic relationship is strong, and it will get stronger. It rests on the recognition by Presidents Hu and Obama that we have shared interests and shared responsibilities.我们两国有强健的经济关系，今后还会更强健。

胡锦涛主席和奥巴马总统都承认我们拥有共同利益和共同责任，双方的经济关系正是以此为基础。

Over the past year, we have acted together to help restore financial stability and economic growth to a world in crisis. Because we stood together, and because our Presidents were willing to act quickly and decisively, the world is in a much stronger position to successfully overcome the challenges ahead.在过去的一年里，为使陷入危机的世界恢复金融稳定和经济增长，我们采取了共同行动。

美国财政部长蒂莫西·盖特纳：金融市场已经明显企稳

了，现金却更多了。由于持有的现金太多，一些家庭解” ；同时把最终结果发布日从５日推迟到７月４日的和企业不得不购买保险柜，导致保险柜行业在经济萧做法，最大的可能性是因为内外有别：美国政府一边
条时期繁荣了一回。
逼迫大银行及时补充资本金，另一边还要避免打击公
１／０９中国经济信息４７１２０
Ｗ。ｒｄＥ… ｌ
匹一
。ｍｃ介持股比 Nhomakorabea 。一
显著下降。以消费者和汽车贷款为抵押的证券发行量
些银行还能开始向政府返还资本金，只要他们正在增加，这些证券的利率也在下降。美联储报告
称，信贷条件现在也开始有所缓和。
现金和存款准备金而不是高风险的资产。在这样的情况下，金融危机不可能见底。进一步推论：隐瞒损失
可以暂时维持公众售，但也将推迟复苏。
美国财政部长蒂莫西・盖特纳：
金融市场已经明显企稳
从信贷息差收窄及其他市场指标来看，金融市场行新的普通股或者将其他资金形式转化为普通股。作已经明显稳定下来，但经济还需要一段时间才能实现为进展的一部分，银行将持续进行重组，出售非核心复苏。
能够证明不通过ＦＩ保也能获取融资。实际上，ＤＣ担
我们预计银行能返还的资金金额会高于最初估计的
这仅仅是一个开始，但是，我们的工作还远远没和家庭仍感到难以借到资金来满足他们的需要。我们
大量现金流出银行体系导致银行脱媒，也导致货众信心。权衡的结果是有节制地逐步公布坏消息。币乘数降低到危机前的一半。为了维持货币供给，美压力测试结果不够坏的一个原因是：选择的 “ 基联储被迫增加基础货币ＭＢ。从２０年８０８月末￣２０准情景”和 “ ０９更差的情景”可能都过于乐观。例如，年１月末的５月间，美元基础货币从８２－美元增基准情景假设美国经济２０年衰退２个４８７ｆ￣０９％，２１年增长００加到１０８Ｌ７０￣美元，翻了一番还多，而同期广义货币２１％；更差的情景是２０年衰退３３０９．％，２１年增长００

盎格鲁-萨克逊资本主义.

盎格鲁-萨克逊资本主义中美都追求低币值的目标，和双方的经济模式相近有关。

美国是所谓“盎格鲁-萨克逊资本主义”（Anglo-Saxon Capitalism）的代表，调节经济以市场为最后的准绳，企业要在自由竞争中追求自身利益的最大化，一味压低成本，在此基础上为了抢占市场份额展开价格战。

中国在全球化的竞争中，无疑也追寻着这一“盎格鲁-萨克逊”的模式。

德国和日本，则属于“莱茵兰资本主义”（Rheinland Capitalism）。

这种模式虽然也遵循市场经济的原则，但市场不是唯一的尺度。

企业不仅要为股东负责，也要为职工负责。

因此，企业不得随意为了成本竞争而压低工资。

企业内由职工代表组成的“工作委员会”，也有巨大的权力决定工资，资方不能单独决断。

在“莱茵兰资本主义”市场的许多领域，价格竞争的空间非常小。

比如欧洲许多国家的保险业，全是统一定价，甚至同行业的工资标准也统一规范。

在这些地方谁也别想占便宜。

企业之间竞争的焦点，进而转向了质量和服务。

自2010年6月19日中国宣布人民币的灵活汇率机制以来，人民币对美元仅升值1%，大大低于美国的期待。

8月份中美贸易顺差继续扩大，加剧了美方的不满。

美国财政部部长盖特纳9月16日在国会作证，明确地指出人民币升值速度过于缓慢，许诺要敦促中国政府允许人民币迅速、有意义和持续地升值。

可惜这并不能平息众怒。

纽约的民主党参议员舒默（Charles Schumer）毫不客气地对盖特纳说：“在这间屋子里，你是唯一一个人还认为中国没有操纵自己的货币。

”国会目前正磨刀霍霍，要对中国“控制汇率”进行贸易制裁。

中美货币战打了数年中美这场货币战争，打了已经有数年之久。

也许还要再打十年二十年。

这样打下去，前景可能是双输。

对此，双方恐怕都有意识。

但是，谁也难以解开目前的僵局。

内中之要因，恐怕还在于双方采取了相似的货币战略。

这种战略，又根植于各自的经济模式，要改也难。

不错，中国确实有操纵汇率机制、以低币值刺激出口之嫌。

眼前利益与长远利益是辩证统一的关系

眼前利益与长久利益是辩证一致的关系哲学看法以为，世界是矛盾的，矛盾无时不在，无所不在。

当长久利益与眼前利益这对矛盾摆在眼前。

美国财政部长盖特纳在国会作证时表达了对人民币汇率的关切，他重申人民币增值速度过于迟缓，幅度有限。

而中国政府同期多次表态，人民币增值解决不了美国的贸易逆差以及失业问题。

美国不停地在国际上制造人民币增值速度过慢的舆论，美国之因此不停鼓噪人民币增值，那就是打压中国的产品出口，提高本国产品的竞争力，以减少失业和加速促使经济复苏，也有美国国内政治的要素，中期选举邻近，奥巴马和民主党为改变公众中支持率连续降落的态势，炒作人民币增值话题，希望以些来防止在中期选择中失掉对国会的控制以及对中美关系来说，美国政府的做法仿佛只好被列为一种短视行为，只看重目前利益，而不着眼于中美关系的长久利益健康发展。

眼前利益与长久利益是辩证一致关系。

眼前利益与长久利益是人们正确办理人与人、人与自然的长久利益与眼前利益关系的一对范围。

眼前利益与长久利益是一对互相运动者的矛盾一致体。

眼前利益，是人们在办理人与人、人与自然的关系时，一定考虑与解决人的存亡存亡的至关重要的问题。

人无食品要饿死。

天寒地冻，人无衣服穿要冻死，无房子居住也要冻死。

吸毒者、各样违纪乱纪者，他们主要考虑的是眼前利益，而不考虑长久利益。

长久利益，是人们在办理人与人、人与自然的关系时，牺牲眼前的、临时的利益，以获得长久的利益为最高准则。

生儿育女，当时付出了好多艰辛，多数为了此后让子女养老送终。

环境保护，花销了好多钱财、物质、劳力，是为了让下一代、甚至下下一代人的生活环境不受损坏。

人们付出高昂的学费、可贵的时间，都是为了学到知识，学到技术，未来可以找到好工作，获取较高的酬劳，或许为人类做出较大的贡献。

眼前利益与长久利益是辩证一致的关系，它们同个人利益与集体利益的关系是相一致的。

一方面，眼前利益与长久利益互为前提而存在 ;另一方面，眼前利益与长久利益互相促使而共同发展。

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The United States and China, Cooperating for Recovery and GrowthThe United States and China, Cooperating for Recovery and GrowthTreasury Secre tary Timothy F. GeithnerSpeech at Peking University - Beijing, ChinaIt is a pleasure to be back in China and to join you here today at this great university.I first came to China, and to Peking University, in the summer of 1981 as a co llege student studying Mandarin. I was here with a small group of graduate and undergraduate students from across the United States. I returned the next summ er to Beijing Normal Univ ersity.We studied reasonably hard, and had the privilege of working with many talente d professors, some of whom are here today. As we explored this city and travel ed through Eastern China, we had the chance not just to understand more about your history and your aspirations, but also to begin to see the United States through your eyes.Over the decades since, we have seen the beginnings of one of the most extraor dinary economic transformations in history. China is thriving. Economic reform has brought exceptionally rapid and sustained growth in incomes. China?．s eme rgence as a major economic force more fully integrated into the world economy has brought substantial benefits to the United States and to economies around the wor ld.In recognition of our mutual interest in a positive, cooperative, and comprehe nsive relationship, President Hu Jintao and President Obama agreed in April to establish the Strategic and Economic Dialogue. Secretary Clinton and I will ho st Vice Premier Wang and State Councilor Dai in Washington this summer for our first meeting. I have the privilege of beginning the economic discussions with a series of meetings in Beijing today and tomorrow.These meetings will give us a chance to discuss the risks and challenges on th e economic front, to examine some of the longer term challenges we both face i n laying the foundation for a more balanced and sustainable recovery, and to e xplore our common interest in international financial reform.Current Challenges and RisksThe world economy is going through the most challenging economic and financial stress in generations.The International Monetary Fund predicts that the world economy will shrink this year for the first time in more than six decades. The collapse of world tra de is likely to be the worst since the end of World War II. The lost output, c ompared to the world economys potential growth in a normal year, could be betw een three and four trillion dollars.In the face of this challenge, China and the United States are working together to help shape a strong global strategy to contain the crisis and to lay the foundation for recovery. And these efforts, the combined effect of forceful po licy actions here in China, in the United States, and in other major economies, have helped slow the pace of deteriorat ion in growth, repair the financial sy stem, and improve confidence.& nbsp;In fact, what distinguishes the current crisis is not just its global scale and its acute severity, but the size and speed of the global response.At the G-20 Leaders meeting in London in April, we agreed on an unprecedented program of coordinated policy actions to support growth, to stabilize and repair the financial system, to restore the flow of credit essential for trade and investment, to mobilize financial resources for emerging market economies thro ugh the international financial institutions, and to keep markets open for tra de and investment.That historic accord on a strategy for recovery was made possible in part by t he policy actions already begun in China and the United States.China moved quickly as the crisis intensified with a very forceful program of investments and financial measures to strengthen domestic demand.In the United States, in the first weeks of the new Administration, we put in place a comprehensive program of tax incentives and investments ：C the larges t peace time recovery effort since World War II - to help arrest the sharp fal l in private demand. Alongside these fiscal measures, we acted to ease the hou sing crisis. And we have put in place a series of initiatives to bring more ca pital into the banking system and to restart the credit markets.These actions have been reinforced by similar actions in countries around the world.In contrast to the global crisis of the 1930s and to the major economic crises of the postwar period, the leaders of the world acted together. They acted qui ckly. They took steps to provide assistance to the most vulnerable economies, even as they faced exceptional financial needs at home. They worked to keep th eir markets open, rather than r etreating into self-defeating measures of disc rimination and protect ion.And they have committed to make sure this program of initiatives is sustained until the foundation for recovery is firmly established, a commitment the IMF will monitor closely, and that we will be able to uate together when the G-20 Leaders meet again in the United States this fall.We are starting to see some initial signs of improvement. The global recession seems to be losing force. In the United States, the pace of decline in economi c activity has slowed. Households are saving more, but consumer confidence has improved, and spending is starting to recover. House prices are falling at a s lower pace and the inventory of unsold homes has come down significantly. Orde rs for goods and services are somewhat stronger. The pace of deterioration in the labor market has slowed, and new claims for unemployment insurance have st arted to come down a bit.&nb sp;The financial system is starting to heal. The clarity and disclosure provided by our capital assessment of major U.S. banks has helped improve market confid ence in them, making it possible for banks that needed capital to raise it fro m private investors and to borrow without guarantees. The securities markets, including the asset backed securities markets that essentially stopped functio ning late last year, have started to come back. The cost of credit has fallen substantially for businesses and for families as spreads and risk premia have narrowed.These are important signs of stability, and assurance that we will succeed in averting financial collapse and global deflation, but they represent only the first steps in laying the foundation for recovery. The process of repair and a djustment is going to take time. ;China, despite your own manifest challenges a s a developing country, you are in an enviably strong position. But in most economies, the recession is still powerful and dangerous. Business and households in the United States, as in ma ny countries, are still experiencing the most challenging economic and financi al pressures in decades.The plant closures, and company restructurings that the recession is causing a re painful, and this process is not yet over. The fallout from these events ha s been brutally indiscriminant, affecting those with little or no responsibili ty for the events that now buffet them, as well as on some who played key role s in bringing about our troubles.The extent of the damage to financial systems entails significant risk that th e supply of credit will be constrained for some time. The constraints on banks in many major economies will make it hard for them to compensate fully for the damage done to the basic machi nery of the securitization markets, including t he loss of confidence in credit ratings. After a long period where financial i nstitutions took on too much risk, we still face the possibility that banks an d investors may take too little risk, even as the underlying economic conditio ns start to improve.And, after a long period of falling saving and substantial growth in household borrowing relative to GDP, consumer spending in the United States will be rest rained for some time relative to what is typically the case in recoveries.These are necessary adjustments. They will entail a longer, slower process of recovery, with a very different pattern of future growth across countries than we have seen in the past several recoveries.Laying the Foundation for Future GrowthAs we address this immediate financial and economic crisis, it is important th at we also lay the foundations for more balanced, sustained growth of the glob al economy once this recovery is firmly established.A successful transition to a more balanced and stable global economy will requ ire very substantial changes to economic policy and financial regulation aroun d the world. But some of the most important of those changes will have to come in the United States and China. How successful we are in Washington and Beijin g will be critically important to the economic fortunes of the rest of the wor ld. The effectiveness of U.S. policies will depend in part on Chinas, and the effectiveness of yours on ours.Although the United States and China start from very different positions, many of our domestic challenges are similar. In the United States, we are working t o reform our health care system, to improve the quality of education, to rebui ld our infrastructure, and to improve energy efficiency. These reforms are ess ential to boosting the productive capacity of our economy. These challenges ar e at the center of your reform priorities, too.We are both working to reform our financial systems. In the United States, our challenge is to create a more stable and more resilient financial system, with stronger protections for consumer and investors. As we work to strengthen and redesign regulation to achieve these objectives, our challenge is to preserve the core strengths of our financial system, which are its exceptional capacity to adapt and innovate and to channel capital for investment in new technologie s and innovative companies. You have the benefit of being able to learn from o ur shortcomings, which have proved so damaging in the present crisis, as well as f rom our strengths.Our common chall enge is to recognize that a more balanced and sustainable glo bal recovery will require changes in the composition of growth in our two econ omies. Because of this, our policies have to be directed at very different out comes.In the United States, saving rates will have to increase, and the purchases of U.S. consumers cannot be as dominant a driver of growth as they have been in t he past.In China, as your leadership has recognized, growth that is sustainable growth will require a very substantial shift from external to domestic demand, from a n investment and export intensive driven growth, to growth led by consumption. Strengthening domestic demand will also strengthen Chinas ability to weather f luctuations in global supply and demand.If we are successful on these respective paths, public and private saving in t he United States will increase as recovery strengthens, and as this happens, o ur current account deficit will come down. And in China, domestic demand will rise at a faster rate than overall GDP, led by a gradual shift to higher rates of consumption.Globally, recovery will have come more from a shift by high saving economies t o stronger domestic demand and less from the American consumer.The policy framework for a successful transition to this outcome is starting t o take shape.In the United States, we are putting in place the foundations for restoring fi scal sustainability.The President in his initial budget to Congress made it clear that, as soon as recovery is firmly established, we are going to have to bring our fiscal defic it down to a level that is sustainable over the medium term. This will mean bringing the imbalance between our fiscal resources and expenditures down to the point - roughly three percent of GDP — wh ere the overall level of public deb t to GDP is definitively on a dow nward path. The temporary investments and ta x incentives we put in place in the Recovery Act to strengthen private demand will have to expire, discretionary spending will have to fall back to a more m odest level relative to GDP, and we will have to be very disciplined in limiti ng future commitments through the reintroduction of budget disciplines, such a s pay-as-you go rules.The President also looks forward to working with Congress to further reduce ou r long-run fiscal deficit.And, critical to our long-term fiscal health, we have to put in place comprehe nsive health care reform that will bring down the growth in health care costs, costs that are the principal driver of our long run fiscal deficit.The President has also proposed steps to encourage private saving, including t hrough automatic enrollment in retirement savings accounts.。