财务估价模型的比较分析报告

Under the financial economic situation, with the increasing number of the investors, the activities of the stock-market corporations in operating and financing are represented on the price of stock. The theory of corporation evaluation has come into an wider field, the financing manBaidu Nhomakorabeagers can know the real economic value of the corporations and make scientific decisions in investing and financing by evaluation. The investors and the financial analysts can find the inter value of the stocks in order to decide whether the stock was worth of invest, and also to provide the valuable information. So the financial evaluation has turned into an necessary work in financing activities. But now in our country, the development of theory and the activities in evaluation have dropped far behind the developed country. This article made comparison and analysis between the several models of financial evaluation, in purpose of applying those evaluation models to the economic activities more scientifically.
关键词：财务估价 估价模型 价值评估 国有股定价 现金流贴现模型
ABSTRACT
The theory of financial evaluation is the core theory of the chrematistics, and the evaluation of the corporation is the core of the theory of financial evaluation. The proper evaluation of the corporation is not only the base of realizing the financing aim, but also important for the corporation managers to program the financial activity, for the outside investors to make decisions of investing, for the stock analysts to seek the chance of investing, and for the credit analysts to evaluate the risk of the loan provided by the bank.
In the first part of the article, a simple presentation of all the evaluation models was given. The second part is the comparison and analysis of the advantages and disadvantages. In the last part, the article analyzes the application of different evaluation models in the pricing of state-owned stock and the rationality of evaluating the state-owned stock by the free-cash-flow-counted model. Then it also exhibits the difference between the price of sold and the internal value by the data from stock market.
本文第一部分先对各种经典的财务估价模型加以简单介绍。包括对模型本身的介绍以及公式的解释。第二部分是对各种估价模型的利弊分析。包括不同估价体系之间的对比分析以及同体系下的各种模型之间两两比较分析，突出体现了现金流贴现模型在企业价值评估方面的显著优势。最后第三部分分析了各种估价模型在国有股定价中的运用，以及运用现金流贴现模型确定国有股权价值的合理性，并通过样本分析展现国有股的实际转让价格脱离其在价值的程度。
财务估价理论经过近半个世纪的发展已经基本形成较为系统的三大体系——比率估价法、贴现法和期权法。这三种方法各有利弊，各有其不同的适用围。本文首先对三种方法下的各种模型加以简单的介绍与解释，接着对各种模型进行两两比较，通过比较使各个模型的优点缺点更加鲜明的展现出来，对于各自的应用领域也一目了然。其中本文着重对比率估价法和现金流估价法做了更为细致、详尽的对比分析，全面的展现了现金流贴现法相对于其它估价法的优势所在，同时也解释了本文为什么采用现金流贴现模型作为国有股估价的主要方法。
随着全球经济的迅猛发展，市场竞争的日益激烈，企业的可持续性发展和风险逐渐成为投资者和企业管理者所关心的核心问题，因此能够涵盖可持续发展和风险要素的企业价值评估便成为投资者和企业管理者努力实现的目标。正是由于现金流贴现模型体现了风险因素对企业价值的影响并且克服了利润指标的缺陷，采用能够体现企业价值增长动因的指标——现金流，真正体现了企业未来增长机会的价值，反映了企业真正的价值增加，故本文将现金流贴现模型作为国有股减持中对国有股定价的决策模型。现金流贴现模型反映了国有股的在价值，将此价值作为国有股减持定价中的理论价格，能够解决国有股减持与流通中对国有股难以定价的问题，有利于对国有资产保值增值的监督和管理。
财务估价模型的比较分析与现实应用
容 提 要
财务估价理论是整个理财学体系中的核心理论，而对企业价值的评估又是财务估价理论的核心。合理的对企业进行估价，不仅是确定企业价值、实现企业理财目标的基础，而且对于企业理财人员的财务规划活动，投资者的投资决策以及证券分析师寻找投资机会，信用分析师了解贷款风险等都具有十分重要的现实意义。